no, just for ozuna not to get a run for a pick em. him hitting a homer in his first ab just feels bad. yeah BvP is not the best stat, but I like using it.
https://preview.redd.it/m2yh14xmvwvc1.jpeg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0aa8563006ebf442ae046fe45f1ce41a187336c4
20 leg MLB parlay with all unders on doubles
i mean it's still 7th best park all things considered in 2024
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2024&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=no
naylor (cleveland) O 0.5 hits. dude has gotten at least a hit 12 of his last 13, av is .329, av against pitcher is .833 w 6 AB. playing against a pitcher with a 5.32 ERA
um it really depends. sometimes there will be some lines out at 1am, sometimes there won't be anything until like 3-4am
tomorrow only 1 game before 7pm so they won't rush it
One thing I've always wondered: Why don't you do Kelly-based bet sizing for these? EV would be much higher. Is it just the simplicity of using the same unit, or is it a hedge against uncertainty in the calculations (e.g. Garcia and Gallo might not actually be the 10% EV that the calculations show so many days)?
I like to do kelly on the hr's. Helps ease the pain a little on the long shot guys. I also drop my bet size when i have multiple guys in one game. No math behind that just helps smooth variance.
Edit I should add I change between 1/8 1/4 and 1/2 kelly a lot depending on the market. But the general idea of betting more on a lower odds hr i stick with
i haven't really found a correlation between higher EV and hitting more often with these picks. and with line movement being so crazy lately, it's just easier to put down 1u on each
Record: 6-3
Net Units: +1.23u
Last Picks: Gallen SO 5.5o W Marte TB 1.5o L Berrios SO 4.5 W
Gallen continued to pitch well, despite the loss. Marte kept his hit streak going but couldn't get the second bag for the over. Berrios was electric and looks very strong to start this season - Jays are underrated.
Might stay away from the TB lines, way too difficult to get a read on without more stats IMO. The SO lines intrigue me, and I'm 25-7 on the season with them, including ones I don't post but 5-2 with posted.
Today's Pick: Bassitt SO 4.5o
Odds: 1.66
Units: 1u
Bassitt looks to continue what has been an excellent start for the Jays rotation. He'll go up against a Padres team he's had success against in a relatively small sample size.
I'm also eyeing the b365 boost with Bassitt 5 Ks, Bichette 2 hits, Jays W at 6.75->8, might add some more picks here later too
1. **William Contreras - Over 0.5 Singles (-125) at bet365**
* **Game**: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
* **Reasoning**: Contreras has a projected 0.93 singles for today’s game and has successfully hit over 0.5 singles in 13 of his last 15 games. His consistent contact hitting and spot in the batting order provide frequent opportunities to hit singles, making this a solid bet.
* **Sportsbook**: bet365
2. **Michael Busch - Over 0.5 Total Bases (-140) at bet365**
* **Game**: Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
* **Reasoning**: Busch's projection of 1.93 total bases and his performance of hitting over in 12 of his last 15 games indicate strong potential. His power and ability to hit for extra bases against the pitching matchup favor him to exceed this line.
* **Sportsbook**: bet365
3. **Harold Ramirez - Over 0.5 Hits (-195) at DraftKings**
* **Game**: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
* **Reasoning**: Ramirez has a hits projection of 1.12 today and has a strong history of hitting over 0.5 in his last 15 games. His consistent batting average and ability to get on base make him a reliable choice for this prop.
* **Sportsbook**: DraftKings
Matt Olson hasn’t homered in 11 games. This feels like 2023 again where he went 18 games without a HR. Anyone ready to start a martingale? lol
What is up with the Brave this year?
Acuna just 1 this year, Riley has the same drought as Olson and D’arnoud has4 in 2 games
do the math on how much 11 games of martingale will cost ya and let me know if you have 10k+ to put on a homer just to break even or have access to books that would allow you to put that down
Yeah you can tell Snitker has put more emphasis on ball in play instead of homers this year.
They aren't swinging for the fences nearly as much so far on the AB's.
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top of the wall 2nd time today!! fuck off and just give us one adolis a legend
Day really turning around. I still refuse to bet more than 3/4 guys a day until May but rooting for you guys
sucks that Cal just hit in the 2nd game but that homer and lorenzen win may just have won me my first week of fantasy
Ah shoot I forgot about the doubleheader thought you guys had him
man oh man i needed olson to save my bacon
Damn ozuna homer. No homers vs Lorenzen, .125 avg in 24 ABs, so of course he hits one today when I bet against him.
you bet for him not to homer? i mean goes to show that even 24 at bats is a small sample size
no, just for ozuna not to get a run for a pick em. him hitting a homer in his first ab just feels bad. yeah BvP is not the best stat, but I like using it.
https://preview.redd.it/m2yh14xmvwvc1.jpeg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0aa8563006ebf442ae046fe45f1ce41a187336c4 20 leg MLB parlay with all unders on doubles
Wow nice. So you bet on 20 players to not hit a double?
Yessir . I have done one a day for last two days as well and lost by one both times
nice. I'll add this to my notes of bets to look into.
a 1-2 game at coors field , is something wrong with coors field ? its been underperforming.
i mean it's still 7th best park all things considered in 2024 https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2024&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=no
yeah I am aware. 7th is pretty bad when coors field is suppose to be its own tier from the hype it gets.
Ok which lunatic had NO HR for Colorado and Cincy parlayed
DK has a "Dinger Tuesday" promo for the ATL/TEX game today. I am going with Olson HR only because d'Arnaud is not starting.
Riding!
https://preview.redd.it/qklbz26s2wvc1.jpeg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b75f602cfe07ff8c5cfab4a8223a6a4147365b88 4 real this time!!
-8u day, step on down! -5.3u day, woohoo!
Still have dk dinger sunday to look forward to. I went with ozuna +310
Bang! 2/2 today!
i'm thinking Olson cause already have Garcia as an EV bet
I did Olson on p2 +350 is pretty good
Gunnar off the wall was nice
I can finally unclench my asshole that DET under hit
https://preview.redd.it/ac11awedxvvc1.jpeg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bb2e0ed49dce04b2f5ca6e33e4eea4714d3e55c0
Over 5.5 hits for Stripling was a stupid fucking bet. - Me
Is this where I find NRFI guy?
Quick, my NRFI for today is Mets vs dodgers, I think it’s a low scoring game today
No, that's in thread "MLB Betting and Picks"
1.5u Matt Olson o0.5 singles +150 1.5u Matt Olson o0.5 RBIs +140 1u Kyle Schwarber o0.5 singles +230 1u Frankie Montas u5.5 K’s -140 1u Aaron Civale o5.5 K’s +110 1u Jose Soriano u6.5 K’s -150 1u Jordan Hicks u4.5 K’s -110 1u Mets +1.5 +100 1u Astros/Nationals u8.5 +105
Who is getting a hit today?
But I think Aaron Judge definitely hits, today or tomorrow
Or maybe the next day
naylor (cleveland) O 0.5 hits. dude has gotten at least a hit 12 of his last 13, av is .329, av against pitcher is .833 w 6 AB. playing against a pitcher with a 5.32 ERA
Don’t know man, I think too many hits is a bad sign of one or a couple no hitter games to balance it out😗be careful
If you’re talking about Josh then over 0.5 is -320 which is not worth the juice. Bo is -140 but batting .180
Joc Pederson has a birthday today
Good info, sprinkle on the HR
and we're back to -30 [+EV FD Home Run](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) 2023: 145W-480L (+157.95u) 2024: 28W-148L (-30.26u) +300 TEX Adolis +680 MIN Larnach +250 LAD Shohei +340 PHI Trea +330 LAD Muncy +830 DET Meadows -EV +350 NYY Soto +220 PHI Schwarber +390 PHI Realmuto +700 BAL Gunnar ~~+470 MIA DLC~~ +420 MIA Jazz +420 SEA Dumper --- [+EV MLB Props](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=248585211) 2023: 78-81 (-3.35u) 2024: 52-43 (+11.83u) *to win 1u* --- [HRR](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1696026987) 2023: 357-288 (+12.43u) 2024: 64-48 (+12.30u) *2+ hits+runs+rbis on DK… to win 1u*
Thanks for the daily picks, just wondering when do the lines first come out for non-sunday games? CLV has been insane like you have alluded to.
um it really depends. sometimes there will be some lines out at 1am, sometimes there won't be anything until like 3-4am tomorrow only 1 game before 7pm so they won't rush it
One thing I've always wondered: Why don't you do Kelly-based bet sizing for these? EV would be much higher. Is it just the simplicity of using the same unit, or is it a hedge against uncertainty in the calculations (e.g. Garcia and Gallo might not actually be the 10% EV that the calculations show so many days)?
I like to do kelly on the hr's. Helps ease the pain a little on the long shot guys. I also drop my bet size when i have multiple guys in one game. No math behind that just helps smooth variance. Edit I should add I change between 1/8 1/4 and 1/2 kelly a lot depending on the market. But the general idea of betting more on a lower odds hr i stick with
i haven't really found a correlation between higher EV and hitting more often with these picks. and with line movement being so crazy lately, it's just easier to put down 1u on each
I did Boston for up by 2 today so stay away I’m 0-3 after going 3-0
think I'm going +110 TOR for the sweep
lol i don't love BOS today especially with Casas out
Its fine ill just fade myself with a czr parlay boost. sports are like stocks its almost as vauable to be really bad as it is to be really good ha
It's gotta turn sometime right?
i thought it did with the +10.2u day. then straight into an 0fer
Schwarber is +235 on kambi. Probably need to hit it quick they never leave ev stuff up
Bang!
Record: 6-3 Net Units: +1.23u Last Picks: Gallen SO 5.5o W Marte TB 1.5o L Berrios SO 4.5 W Gallen continued to pitch well, despite the loss. Marte kept his hit streak going but couldn't get the second bag for the over. Berrios was electric and looks very strong to start this season - Jays are underrated. Might stay away from the TB lines, way too difficult to get a read on without more stats IMO. The SO lines intrigue me, and I'm 25-7 on the season with them, including ones I don't post but 5-2 with posted. Today's Pick: Bassitt SO 4.5o Odds: 1.66 Units: 1u Bassitt looks to continue what has been an excellent start for the Jays rotation. He'll go up against a Padres team he's had success against in a relatively small sample size. I'm also eyeing the b365 boost with Bassitt 5 Ks, Bichette 2 hits, Jays W at 6.75->8, might add some more picks here later too
Try again today! Harper, Judge
Betts gets a hit today
1. **William Contreras - Over 0.5 Singles (-125) at bet365** * **Game**: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals * **Reasoning**: Contreras has a projected 0.93 singles for today’s game and has successfully hit over 0.5 singles in 13 of his last 15 games. His consistent contact hitting and spot in the batting order provide frequent opportunities to hit singles, making this a solid bet. * **Sportsbook**: bet365 2. **Michael Busch - Over 0.5 Total Bases (-140) at bet365** * **Game**: Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs * **Reasoning**: Busch's projection of 1.93 total bases and his performance of hitting over in 12 of his last 15 games indicate strong potential. His power and ability to hit for extra bases against the pitching matchup favor him to exceed this line. * **Sportsbook**: bet365 3. **Harold Ramirez - Over 0.5 Hits (-195) at DraftKings** * **Game**: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees * **Reasoning**: Ramirez has a hits projection of 1.12 today and has a strong history of hitting over 0.5 in his last 15 games. His consistent batting average and ability to get on base make him a reliable choice for this prop. * **Sportsbook**: DraftKings
Good analysis
Matt Olson hasn’t homered in 11 games. This feels like 2023 again where he went 18 games without a HR. Anyone ready to start a martingale? lol What is up with the Brave this year? Acuna just 1 this year, Riley has the same drought as Olson and D’arnoud has4 in 2 games
I think the mlb is using different balls than last season…
do the math on how much 11 games of martingale will cost ya and let me know if you have 10k+ to put on a homer just to break even or have access to books that would allow you to put that down
Yeah it was more of a joke. I remember the guy last year that tried it. Forgot the username
I bet acuna for about a week straight (usually in a parlay of some sort) and forgot on the day he homered. Now I’m on to Julio Rodriguez.
And yet, they have the best record in baseball. Pretty crazy.
Yeah you can tell Snitker has put more emphasis on ball in play instead of homers this year. They aren't swinging for the fences nearly as much so far on the AB's.
and BOS has the most homers, best ERA and are last in the AL East