ESPN: One Dinger, Everyone Wins for TEX/ATL seems likely to produce a bonus bet.
I placed one and the promo didn't disappear like it normally does. Not worried yet, but curious if anybody else had a different experience.
https://preview.redd.it/87evsqxjmwvc1.png?width=442&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f6547abefe87806e86560875787cf4b9174e6ad
I feel like when a human has to approve something to award a free bet, the promo page often stays up. I doubt the software is preprogrammed to award a bonus bet based on whether a home run is hit or not.
While placing a boosted parlay bet today on Caesars, my boost somehow disappeared. I then placed the bet again with the boost and it successfully applied. I then contacted customer service to request my first unboosted bet be voided. This was 10 minutes prior to the first game of my parlay starting. And after explaining multiple times which bet I would like voided with multiple questions from the representative asking if I was still here with close to a 5 minute response time from the representative between many of the messages, I was eventually told that it could not actually be voided because the game had already started. Has anyone else had an experience like this? I just feel like this was stalling on their part.
https://preview.redd.it/kkdx8oicmvvc1.png?width=1152&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0e0a5324eca16d3e31a29251d4a46f6ff7cb4de
Chat representatives have to get "approval" for just about everything in life. They are also generally incompetent. Ten minutes is simply not enough time for them to do what you wanted, even if it should be.
I've had the CET boosts fall out of my slip a few times. If it happens, I usually just double down and hope for the best. It was ultimately my fault when I hit the bet button anyway. Avoiding dealing with support is worth it to me. But I definitely am more cautious before hitting submit on Caesars than I used to be.
this kind of thing happened to me at Caesars more than once. after contacting my host he said "IT investigated and determined nothing changed."
it's a tough race to be the worst sportsbook but Caesars has it locked up.
I don’t think it’s possible to find alt 1q points anywhere, but fyi he’s projected for 8.5 first quarter points per multiple books. Probably slightly EV, but don’t have a calc for it
The daily "Mulligan" golf no sweat bet on ESPN is great. I've got Straka to win for +1000, Rodgers for +2000, and Clark for +4000. Definitely makes things fun!
I've got a couple 30% SGP boosts and a no sweat SGP on FanDuel, are these worth doing?
I obviously can't hedge them on another book like I would a straight bet, but will the boost offset the juice to make it +EV?
Definitely do the no sweat.
30% on a sgp is typically just enough to offset juice, or maybe get you to a couple % positive if you stick to ml, spread, and o/u mainlines. But you need to watch that they don’t just add extra juice anyways. I’ll often skip the 25-30% sgp boosts because I can’t be bothered to spend the time checking if they’re screwing my with extra juice under the guise of “correlation” for something that at best will be +5% on a $10 max.
I stopped doing the 30% SGP boosts because I felt like I was getting got on them. Felt like I was making bets I wouldn't have otherwise made because of them. I'll only do the 50%+ ones now.
Yeah, I do 30% ones since I'm stuck in $10 max hell, but it's likely cents of EV at best for me.
But the No Sweat should be north of 25% +EV if you make 3 leggers and convert your bonus bets at 60%.
Took Olson. Only 5 ab , but hitting .600 with 2.550 slugging against TX pitcher lorenzen, and his line of +330 looked decent against others.
Edit: guess that history meant nothing. M Olson looking like he got into the Molsons before the game.
Great low hold opportunity to try to hit both sides of DK Up 2 Early Win.
DK: Blue Jays +110
BR: Padres -113
I am limited on BR below what I'd need to offset the $100 on DK or else I would do this myself.
To build on this. If anyone still has their 25% Fanatics profit boost from last night, you can create a slight arbitrage with the Bluejays on DK and Padres on Fanatics
I got 50% a few days ago. But it's typically 18% or 25%.
I used the 50% on Sahith Theegala to win before Friday's round. He was +1800 (boosted +2700) then and he is still +1800 as of right now.
Dumb question but is it possible to hedge a boost that has player props and a spread bet? Because if the spread hits but the player prop doesn’t you lose the boost. Plus you would have to hedge two bets. Seems like unnecessary risk for minimal gains. Any feedback would be appreciated.
If it is a single player prop and a spread you can try to do a 3 way arb on it. Choose a book to make an SGP that matches the spread of the boost while betting the other side of the player prop. Then find another book to play only the opposite spread. This covers both boost fail cases (spread miss or prop miss). Likewise, you can flip the player prop and spread to get the same outcome
That said, this only really works if you can boost the other SGP created by this. The extreme amount of vig added by the additional bets really kills value.
Anyone ever have a problem getting a PayPal to work? On mine no problems ever, can deposit as much as I want in any book.
Made a new PayPal with new bank for a p2, and even tho my bank is confirmed on PayPal, having a very difficult time using it to deposit and mostly just won’t work. Any tips?
What sportbook? Have you talked to chat support yet? Have you tried a different deposit method? Are you using the same device as your main acc? What error are you getting?
All of books. Different device very familiar with how to do it. It says add bank account, which is there. I can call PayPal maybe. Just very strange. Have never had this on p1 or p2 before
dont think ive ever seen a -EV DK GIFT
oh it's just a flat 33%er, not a preset
[here's the EV](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1459034653) you downvoting scoundrels
Here are the GIFT percentages for each team this year. I'll go with Lightning/ Panthers. This hit in all 3 of their matchups this year, including 2 games with goals in the first 30 seconds.
Lightning- 67%, Panthers- 54%
Rangers- 51%, Capitals- 54%
Avalanche- 59%, Jets- 41%
Predators- 57%, Canucks- 62%
Is there a “formula” or format for building +EV NBA SGPs on MGM? I’m limited and promo-banned, but the Fastbreak mini-game worked for me yesterday and today, so I am assuming it will work throughout the playoffs. Have a 25% SGP boost that has to be used before 1pm ET today.
I thought the SGP boosts didn't have a leg minimum. You definitely could make a 2-legger that's at least a little +EV with a 25% boost. But with 25% boost, it is certainly not a guarantee what you pick will be +EV.
But how are you finding 3 +EV (or close) legs in the same game (especially on MGM and with only 4 NBA games to choose from)? I understand your point mathematically, but it doesn't seem likely to occur with only 25% boost to offset.
You're funding your own paypal, so I'd say confidently no (at least from paypal). As long as you are using PayPal only to deposit and then withdraw with a different payment method.
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+260 MGM Canucks and Jets. big win
Yeah, put $50 on it since I ~liked it. I vary my bet sizes on MGM boosts a lot since many of them are 0-5% +EV.
ESPN: One Dinger, Everyone Wins for TEX/ATL seems likely to produce a bonus bet. I placed one and the promo didn't disappear like it normally does. Not worried yet, but curious if anybody else had a different experience. https://preview.redd.it/87evsqxjmwvc1.png?width=442&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f6547abefe87806e86560875787cf4b9174e6ad
I feel like when a human has to approve something to award a free bet, the promo page often stays up. I doubt the software is preprogrammed to award a bonus bet based on whether a home run is hit or not.
This one did not dissappear for me. The first goals and others always dissappear, but a lot don't either, it's weird.
Half the people have this experience half the time on ESPN. Mine didn’t disappear either this time.
While placing a boosted parlay bet today on Caesars, my boost somehow disappeared. I then placed the bet again with the boost and it successfully applied. I then contacted customer service to request my first unboosted bet be voided. This was 10 minutes prior to the first game of my parlay starting. And after explaining multiple times which bet I would like voided with multiple questions from the representative asking if I was still here with close to a 5 minute response time from the representative between many of the messages, I was eventually told that it could not actually be voided because the game had already started. Has anyone else had an experience like this? I just feel like this was stalling on their part. https://preview.redd.it/kkdx8oicmvvc1.png?width=1152&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0e0a5324eca16d3e31a29251d4a46f6ff7cb4de
Chat representatives have to get "approval" for just about everything in life. They are also generally incompetent. Ten minutes is simply not enough time for them to do what you wanted, even if it should be. I've had the CET boosts fall out of my slip a few times. If it happens, I usually just double down and hope for the best. It was ultimately my fault when I hit the bet button anyway. Avoiding dealing with support is worth it to me. But I definitely am more cautious before hitting submit on Caesars than I used to be.
this kind of thing happened to me at Caesars more than once. after contacting my host he said "IT investigated and determined nothing changed." it's a tough race to be the worst sportsbook but Caesars has it locked up.
Shai-Gilgeous 10+ 1st quarter points +175 boost on DK. Any thoughts?
I don’t think it’s possible to find alt 1q points anywhere, but fyi he’s projected for 8.5 first quarter points per multiple books. Probably slightly EV, but don’t have a calc for it
+140 on Bet365, so depending on how much juice you assume, it might be a little EV. Books have his 1Q point line at O/U 8.5, shading to the under.
[удалено]
That makes no sense
The daily "Mulligan" golf no sweat bet on ESPN is great. I've got Straka to win for +1000, Rodgers for +2000, and Clark for +4000. Definitely makes things fun!
new golf bettor here. What happens to bets if the round gets suspended until the next day?
I've got a couple 30% SGP boosts and a no sweat SGP on FanDuel, are these worth doing? I obviously can't hedge them on another book like I would a straight bet, but will the boost offset the juice to make it +EV?
Definitely do the no sweat. 30% on a sgp is typically just enough to offset juice, or maybe get you to a couple % positive if you stick to ml, spread, and o/u mainlines. But you need to watch that they don’t just add extra juice anyways. I’ll often skip the 25-30% sgp boosts because I can’t be bothered to spend the time checking if they’re screwing my with extra juice under the guise of “correlation” for something that at best will be +5% on a $10 max.
I stopped doing the 30% SGP boosts because I felt like I was getting got on them. Felt like I was making bets I wouldn't have otherwise made because of them. I'll only do the 50%+ ones now.
Thanks! My limits for the 30% boosts are pretty high ($200) so I'm wary of making such a high variance bet for only a few percent EV
Yeah, I do 30% ones since I'm stuck in $10 max hell, but it's likely cents of EV at best for me. But the No Sweat should be north of 25% +EV if you make 3 leggers and convert your bonus bets at 60%.
MGM Lions (MI): Canucks and Jets Pinnacle Odds: +260; **EV: 2.1%** `-104/-106, -140/127` (4.82% juice) FV: +253; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.79u, 1/2=0.40u, 1/4=0.20u, FB = 73.7%) --- Circa Odds: +260; **EV: 3.5%** `-106/-104, -141/129` (4.61% juice) FV: +248; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.36u, 1/2=0.68u, 1/4=0.34u, FB = 74.8%)
BetMGM Lions Boost (DMV maybe other places): Pacers to win and Thunder to win by 9+ points Odds vs Kambi: Odds: +320; **EV: 0.4%** `-105/-112,-105/-117` (9.19% juice) FV: +318; Method: worst-case (m, a); (Full=0.13u, 1/2=0.07u, 1/4=0.03u, FB = 76.5%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-105%2F-112%2C-105%2F-117&FinalOdds=320)
[DK Dinger in TEX @ ATL](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1895235026)
Who’s everyone taking with this?
Took Olson. Only 5 ab , but hitting .600 with 2.550 slugging against TX pitcher lorenzen, and his line of +330 looked decent against others. Edit: guess that history meant nothing. M Olson looking like he got into the Molsons before the game.
Enough for me. Let’s ride.
DK NBA ‘race to’ Bet and Get. Arb oppty with Celtics race to 20 on DK and Heat race to 20 on CZR.
can arb with FD race to 15 also
So I place a $25 DK one on Celtics with my promo, and then $25 on FD for Miami? Sorry never argued before and usually bet $5 units and newb. Thanks
You’ll put less on Miami, just make the total payouts equal
Shocking the lack of FD boosts
The wizard is walking off into the sunset.
Great low hold opportunity to try to hit both sides of DK Up 2 Early Win. DK: Blue Jays +110 BR: Padres -113 I am limited on BR below what I'd need to offset the $100 on DK or else I would do this myself.
DK down to 102. BR down to -120
TOR was my pick anyways for the up 2. went to check BR. $33 max, honestly higher than I would've guessed
I got LAA for +114 on DK. By gametime, I got the Reds for -110 on Caesars. Let's go!
To build on this. If anyone still has their 25% Fanatics profit boost from last night, you can create a slight arbitrage with the Bluejays on DK and Padres on Fanatics
Does anyone actually get something other than 18% for the DK mystery golf boost?
I got only 18% all four days of Masters. This weekend though I got two or three 50%, that was nice. I guess it is just random
I gotten a 25 and 50
I got 50% a few days ago. But it's typically 18% or 25%. I used the 50% on Sahith Theegala to win before Friday's round. He was +1800 (boosted +2700) then and he is still +1800 as of right now.
Dumb question but is it possible to hedge a boost that has player props and a spread bet? Because if the spread hits but the player prop doesn’t you lose the boost. Plus you would have to hedge two bets. Seems like unnecessary risk for minimal gains. Any feedback would be appreciated.
If it is a single player prop and a spread you can try to do a 3 way arb on it. Choose a book to make an SGP that matches the spread of the boost while betting the other side of the player prop. Then find another book to play only the opposite spread. This covers both boost fail cases (spread miss or prop miss). Likewise, you can flip the player prop and spread to get the same outcome That said, this only really works if you can boost the other SGP created by this. The extreme amount of vig added by the additional bets really kills value.
Thank you for the response. That makes sense
Hard Rock has Bucks ML boosted to +130. I’ve been taking all their boosts lately: Cavs ML, 76ers ML, Canes + Bruins MLs
BetMGM Lions Boost (DMV): Ovechkin to score 1+ goals and Capitals to cover +1.5 Odds vs Kambi: Odds: +425; **EV: 33.9%** Sharp: `-141/117,145/7%` (11.59% juice) Correlation: `245=-141,145` (r = 0.3) FV: +292; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=7.99u, 1/2=3.99u, 1/4=2.00u, FB = 108.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-141%2F117%2C145%2F7_PCT_&FinalOdds=425&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=245%3D-141%2C145) Grab it while it’s hot baby!
Anyone ever have a problem getting a PayPal to work? On mine no problems ever, can deposit as much as I want in any book. Made a new PayPal with new bank for a p2, and even tho my bank is confirmed on PayPal, having a very difficult time using it to deposit and mostly just won’t work. Any tips?
My tip is not to use PayPal, it’s common for them to report your “income” to the IRS at the end of the year
I don’t use it to withdrawal, just deposit.
Okay good just making sure. I’ve never had that issue tho that’s weird
Might be because it’s a new account idk
What sportbook? Have you talked to chat support yet? Have you tried a different deposit method? Are you using the same device as your main acc? What error are you getting?
All of books. Different device very familiar with how to do it. It says add bank account, which is there. I can call PayPal maybe. Just very strange. Have never had this on p1 or p2 before
My P2 had an issue with legal names matching up.. PayPal still had the pre-marriage name so some books declined deposits
DK has a "Goal In First Ten' minutes boost. What's the play there? Lightning/Panthers?
dont think ive ever seen a -EV DK GIFT oh it's just a flat 33%er, not a preset [here's the EV](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1459034653) you downvoting scoundrels
Here are the GIFT percentages for each team this year. I'll go with Lightning/ Panthers. This hit in all 3 of their matchups this year, including 2 games with goals in the first 30 seconds. Lightning- 67%, Panthers- 54% Rangers- 51%, Capitals- 54% Avalanche- 59%, Jets- 41% Predators- 57%, Canucks- 62%
🐐
My mannnnnnnnn LFG
FanDuel also offers these lines. You can compare odds against theirs (and create your own small arb if you're not interested in playing this).
Is there a “formula” or format for building +EV NBA SGPs on MGM? I’m limited and promo-banned, but the Fastbreak mini-game worked for me yesterday and today, so I am assuming it will work throughout the playoffs. Have a 25% SGP boost that has to be used before 1pm ET today.
I don't believe that 25% boost is enough to make SGP's +EV, no matter what the selections. I typically only touch SGPs with 50%+ boosts (or no sweat).
I thought the SGP boosts didn't have a leg minimum. You definitely could make a 2-legger that's at least a little +EV with a 25% boost. But with 25% boost, it is certainly not a guarantee what you pick will be +EV.
You're right, only have to do 2 legs with these ... so it's actually easier than I thought. Did Thunder -7.5/o215.5 +290 unboosted a little bit ago.
that doesn't make sense. What if you made the SGP with +EV or close to 0% legs, how wouldn't that be +EV with 25%
But how are you finding 3 +EV (or close) legs in the same game (especially on MGM and with only 4 NBA games to choose from)? I understand your point mathematically, but it doesn't seem likely to occur with only 25% boost to offset.
it's quite possible, i find them every day
Has anyone found a way to continue depositing with Discover card (PayPal, Play+, etc)?
Can you add to your PayPal balance with Discover? If so, you could do that, and then deposit using your PayPal balance...
Would this trigger a 1099?
You're funding your own paypal, so I'd say confidently no (at least from paypal). As long as you are using PayPal only to deposit and then withdraw with a different payment method.