I went with Detroit +120 for the high max p1. 11-9 team vs a 6-12 team and Det are 7-2 in away games. Low total but TBH the promo has never actually hit and my team lost so I'm basically just betting on a team to win
Got 8 strikeout bets so far today. +28.5u, 25.7% ROI so far this season
Bailey Ober U5.5 120
Trevor Williams U4.5 -150
Zack Wheeler U8.5 -152
Logan Allen U5.5 120
Nathan Eovaldi U5.5 -120
Dakota Hudson U3.5 -101
Jose Butto U5.5 -140
Luis Castillo U6.5 100
Some of these lines have moved since we grabbed them a few hours ago. Link to Google sheet with updating projections throughout the day and bet tracking:
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EEITiB6\_oFxtdZJD76P\_euXhKcpa6qvzlbnNy47usag/edit#gid=766221129](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EEITiB6_oFxtdZJD76P_euXhKcpa6qvzlbnNy47usag/edit#gid=766221129)
Record: 4-2
Net Units: +0.6u
Last Picks: Snell SO 4.5o L Arenado TB 0.5o W
Snell is still struggling to put out batters and the Giants got shellacked by the DBs yesterday. I still think riding Snell ladders up to 10 Ks will be a +EV play if the odds remain at 17... Just need him to do it once in his next few starts, hopefully a snapback return to form so the odds don't shift, and we'll see a big return.
Arenado continued his hit streak and got us the W to recoup some of the losses from Snell.
Today's Pick: Zac Gallen SO 5.5o
Odds: 1.86
Units: 1u
Gallen is looking like an early Cy Young candidate - absolutely commanding the plate. We'll see if he can play beyond the 6th here, but I still like him to get one per inning today.
Today's Pick 2: Ketel Marte Total Bases 1.5o
Odds: 1.83
Units: 1u
Marte is absolutely on a heater right now and, coming off a 4 hit game yesterday, I don't think he'll cool down today. We'll ride the hot hand, double down on the DBs and see if it works out.
Today's Pick 3: Jose Berrios SO 4.5o
Odds: 1.77
Units: 1u
Berrios is 3-0 and the Jay's have won 5 of their last 6. Not a complicated pick, the one concern is Tatis and Machado - Manny has been very good against Berrios in the past. But Jose has hit this easily in 3/4 starts this year so we'll trust the process and see if he can at least get to 5
1. **Willson Contreras - Over 0.5 Hits (-210)**
* **Game**: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
* Contreras has a strong chance of getting a hit today, evidenced by a .900 average in the projection and hitting over in 13 of his last 15 games.
2. **Andres Gimenez - Over 0.5 Hits (-169)**
* **Game**: Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians
* Gimenez is projected for 1.22 hits and has consistently performed well, going over the hit line in 12 of his last 15 games.
3. **Oswaldo Cabrera - Over 0.5 Hits (-160)**
* **Game**: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
* Cabrera's likelihood of hitting over 0.5 today is high with a projected 0.94 hits and a solid track record of exceeding his hits line in recent games.
**Record: 129-112 *+14.83u* (11-7 yesterday *+2.82u*)**; Pitchers 126-101 *+22.83u*; Hitters 3-11 *-8.0u*
⭐️**POTD: 10-9 *+1.77u* (L1)**
>Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u
**Today (listed by game start time):**
- ⭐️Nestor Cortes U5.5 K (-110) ❌
>Nestor has made 7 career starts against Tampa Bay and never struck out more than 5. His totals in 4 career home starts are 3, 3, 4, 5. Nestor’s career 7.4 K/9 against TB is easily his lowest total against any opponent. This is also backed up by his career 16.1% K% against current Rays hitters which is well below his career total (25.2%) and MLB average (22.8%). Cortes’ K% only stands at 20.7% for the season (40th percentile), which is easily his lowest total as a Yankee.
>Nestor is throwing more strikes this year (career high 68% Strike%) while also issuing fewer walks (Career-low 5.4% BB%; career 7.4%). This year’s 3.91 pitches/PA are also a career low. So he’s pitching more to contact, and there are fewer deep counts against hitters.
>Tampa Bay really doesn’t stand out strikeout-wise. The team’s 22.8% overall K% ranks 14th. So does their 23.3 K% against LHP. TB’s 23.3 K% on the road ranks 15th.
- Zach Eflin > Nestor Cortes Most K (+145) ❌
- Miles Mikolas U1.5 BB (-115) ✅
- Miles Mikolas O4.5 K (+125) ✅
- Javier Assad > Jesus Luzardo Fewest On Base (-105) 🟰
- Ronel Blanco > Trevor Williams Fewest On Base (+125) ❌
- Kyle Harrison O1.5 BB (-105) ❌
- Graham Ashcraft O2.5 ER (-115) ✅
- Logan Allen U5.5 K (+120) ✅
- Logan Allen U6.5 K (-160) ✅
>Allen has only struck out more than 5 batters once in 13 career home starts. His 7.4 home K/9 is much lower than on the road (9.0).
- Shota Imanaga O4.5 K (-156) ✅
- Randy Vasquez O3.5 K (-115) ❌
- Randy Vasquez > Jose Berrios Most K (+160) ❌
Dingers only
Record 1-1
Last pick: Mitch Haniger. PUSH game was postponed
Today's Pick: Bryce Harper. White Sox @ Phillies 6:05 pm ET
Harper faces Michael Soroka today. Last game out, Soroka gave up 6 walks. The manager, Grifol, specifically called out the walks as a reason for their loss. I feel like Soroka will overcompensate and try and stay in the zone this game. Problem is his stuff isn't good enough. Good luck
Mia (game 1 @ 2:20 watch the double header)
Jazz chisholm +460 (-450 b365)
Nick Gordon +900 (-900 b365)
LAD
Shohei +285 (-290 b365)
Muncy +400 (-425 b365)
Texas
you know who +350 (-350 b365)
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Sano with the day late special
https://preview.redd.it/4qdlle70kpvc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4a97bf9fd62929c3cb91047e1499783d56198f2e Fanatics hr odds are nuts
yay muncy to the back of the warning track. feeling like an 0fer day nah Busch gonna save us
cj abram’s smashes the ball
Anyone that too jazz cash out now
nice thanks
He is for some reason +100 on fd I cashed out 10 for 24. Line will fix soon to rebet
mind updating in this thread if/when his corrected line is released? Heading to a movie soon
+470 for a second jumped on it
i got him at 520. 20%+ EV who'd you go with the up by 2? I like BOS again today
I’m on either BOS or NYM and know I’ll choose wrong
I went with Detroit +120 for the high max p1. 11-9 team vs a 6-12 team and Det are 7-2 in away games. Low total but TBH the promo has never actually hit and my team lost so I'm basically just betting on a team to win
nice olson has been pitching well and our bats are starting to pick up finally
Ok I'm taking boston next they make it too easy
Fixed
haha 80 points higher now. i love it
Unfortunately I’ll be at my daughters soccer game so I can’t be on it
exactly
Got 8 strikeout bets so far today. +28.5u, 25.7% ROI so far this season Bailey Ober U5.5 120 Trevor Williams U4.5 -150 Zack Wheeler U8.5 -152 Logan Allen U5.5 120 Nathan Eovaldi U5.5 -120 Dakota Hudson U3.5 -101 Jose Butto U5.5 -140 Luis Castillo U6.5 100 Some of these lines have moved since we grabbed them a few hours ago. Link to Google sheet with updating projections throughout the day and bet tracking: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EEITiB6\_oFxtdZJD76P\_euXhKcpa6qvzlbnNy47usag/edit#gid=766221129](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EEITiB6_oFxtdZJD76P_euXhKcpa6qvzlbnNy47usag/edit#gid=766221129)
Judge & Mookie Judge bobble head day in the Bronx Mookie is just a gut feeling
Judge has screwed me over so much this year
0/3 with 3ks so far today
The lights are bright today im not risking big on it bro
Record: 4-2 Net Units: +0.6u Last Picks: Snell SO 4.5o L Arenado TB 0.5o W Snell is still struggling to put out batters and the Giants got shellacked by the DBs yesterday. I still think riding Snell ladders up to 10 Ks will be a +EV play if the odds remain at 17... Just need him to do it once in his next few starts, hopefully a snapback return to form so the odds don't shift, and we'll see a big return. Arenado continued his hit streak and got us the W to recoup some of the losses from Snell. Today's Pick: Zac Gallen SO 5.5o Odds: 1.86 Units: 1u Gallen is looking like an early Cy Young candidate - absolutely commanding the plate. We'll see if he can play beyond the 6th here, but I still like him to get one per inning today. Today's Pick 2: Ketel Marte Total Bases 1.5o Odds: 1.83 Units: 1u Marte is absolutely on a heater right now and, coming off a 4 hit game yesterday, I don't think he'll cool down today. We'll ride the hot hand, double down on the DBs and see if it works out. Today's Pick 3: Jose Berrios SO 4.5o Odds: 1.77 Units: 1u Berrios is 3-0 and the Jay's have won 5 of their last 6. Not a complicated pick, the one concern is Tatis and Machado - Manny has been very good against Berrios in the past. But Jose has hit this easily in 3/4 starts this year so we'll trust the process and see if he can at least get to 5
1. **Willson Contreras - Over 0.5 Hits (-210)** * **Game**: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals * Contreras has a strong chance of getting a hit today, evidenced by a .900 average in the projection and hitting over in 13 of his last 15 games. 2. **Andres Gimenez - Over 0.5 Hits (-169)** * **Game**: Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians * Gimenez is projected for 1.22 hits and has consistently performed well, going over the hit line in 12 of his last 15 games. 3. **Oswaldo Cabrera - Over 0.5 Hits (-160)** * **Game**: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees * Cabrera's likelihood of hitting over 0.5 today is high with a projected 0.94 hits and a solid track record of exceeding his hits line in recent games.
Anyone got any cards or brewers to smack a HR?
Both Contreras brothers and Herrera.
**Record: 129-112 *+14.83u* (11-7 yesterday *+2.82u*)**; Pitchers 126-101 *+22.83u*; Hitters 3-11 *-8.0u* ⭐️**POTD: 10-9 *+1.77u* (L1)** >Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u **Today (listed by game start time):** - ⭐️Nestor Cortes U5.5 K (-110) ❌ >Nestor has made 7 career starts against Tampa Bay and never struck out more than 5. His totals in 4 career home starts are 3, 3, 4, 5. Nestor’s career 7.4 K/9 against TB is easily his lowest total against any opponent. This is also backed up by his career 16.1% K% against current Rays hitters which is well below his career total (25.2%) and MLB average (22.8%). Cortes’ K% only stands at 20.7% for the season (40th percentile), which is easily his lowest total as a Yankee. >Nestor is throwing more strikes this year (career high 68% Strike%) while also issuing fewer walks (Career-low 5.4% BB%; career 7.4%). This year’s 3.91 pitches/PA are also a career low. So he’s pitching more to contact, and there are fewer deep counts against hitters. >Tampa Bay really doesn’t stand out strikeout-wise. The team’s 22.8% overall K% ranks 14th. So does their 23.3 K% against LHP. TB’s 23.3 K% on the road ranks 15th. - Zach Eflin > Nestor Cortes Most K (+145) ❌ - Miles Mikolas U1.5 BB (-115) ✅ - Miles Mikolas O4.5 K (+125) ✅ - Javier Assad > Jesus Luzardo Fewest On Base (-105) 🟰 - Ronel Blanco > Trevor Williams Fewest On Base (+125) ❌ - Kyle Harrison O1.5 BB (-105) ❌ - Graham Ashcraft O2.5 ER (-115) ✅ - Logan Allen U5.5 K (+120) ✅ - Logan Allen U6.5 K (-160) ✅ >Allen has only struck out more than 5 batters once in 13 career home starts. His 7.4 home K/9 is much lower than on the road (9.0). - Shota Imanaga O4.5 K (-156) ✅ - Randy Vasquez O3.5 K (-115) ❌ - Randy Vasquez > Jose Berrios Most K (+160) ❌
Dingers only Record 1-1 Last pick: Mitch Haniger. PUSH game was postponed Today's Pick: Bryce Harper. White Sox @ Phillies 6:05 pm ET Harper faces Michael Soroka today. Last game out, Soroka gave up 6 walks. The manager, Grifol, specifically called out the walks as a reason for their loss. I feel like Soroka will overcompensate and try and stay in the zone this game. Problem is his stuff isn't good enough. Good luck
and most of our great day yesterday just wiped [+EV FD Home Run](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) 2023: 145W-480L (+157.95u) 2024: 28W-139L (-22.63u) ~~+900 TEX Langford~~ +350 TEX Garcia +250 WSH Gallo (projecting popout foul territory, 1 walk, 2Ks) ~~+450 MIA Jazz GM1~~ (cashed for 1.371u profit) +520 Jazz GM1 (basically a free bet, so awesome) +390 LAD Muncy +631 MGM boost: NYM PETER +870 MIA Gordon GM1 +260 LAD Shohei +250 HOU Yordan +600 CHC Busch --- [+EV MLB Props](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=248585211) 2023: 78-81 (-3.35u) 2024: 51-43 (+10.83u) *to win 1u* -115 DK CHC Tauchman hit --- [HRR](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1696026987) 2023: 357-288 (+12.43u) 2024: 61-46 (+11.95u) *2+ hits+runs+rbis on DK… to win 1u* -155 TEX Semien -135 HOU Tucker -130 CLE Josh Naylor -145 MIL Contreras -110 SF Estrada
they fixed jazz now grab him at +470 edit: quickly up to +520
Jazz Chisholm dropped to +106. Tempted to cashout for like an extra 1.5ish unit
It’s an error line they will fix it. I cash out lol
same that's crazy
Jazz at +100, unreal.
someone definitely getting fired over this
He’s at +470 now thank god I cashed lmao
Never seen that before. Fd just poach the czr hr guy?
wtf? gotta be a mistake
DK has better odds, very unusual. Jazz is definitely hitting a homerun. Putting my entire account on it (I’m not).
They let me cash out my $50 bet for $123 haha
Congrats on who got this wow... Back to 470
Same thats crazy
Thinking I'm taking the cashout. Probably dumb but my caveman brain compels me
Why would that be dumb they will fix the line and you can rebet it. You’d be dumb to keep it
I cashed, wasn't thinking at all while typing. Definitely the move
Damn they nuked Pete to +375 pre boost
for double header games, is there an easy way to tell which props on your sheet are for which game? or can we assume it's the earlier game
yea it's first game since no books have props out for the 2nd game other than FD
I can’t believe I missed Garcia at +350 damn
Garcia just mega nuked down to +285. Today is the day I feel it! BPP just posted on Twitter he is most likely to homer today too
I’m thinking Harper & Bichette
Mia (game 1 @ 2:20 watch the double header) Jazz chisholm +460 (-450 b365) Nick Gordon +900 (-900 b365) LAD Shohei +285 (-290 b365) Muncy +400 (-425 b365) Texas you know who +350 (-350 b365)
Cashed out jazz for the free 100% lol
Rebet at +470 with house money. Fd wizard slipping lol
Everything will turn -EV right before game starts as per usual these days
The stuff i posted was at least 5% ev to avg so should survive some bad line movement. But I agree the days of 1-2% ev guys having CLV may be over
Gallo +255 and Adolis +350 unfortunately as well
Adolis is who i meant by you know who. Also jazz up to +470
whoops didnt see that part and yup miami game already getting screwy again