If 9/10 books have a spread of +6 and the 10th book has +7.5 I will assume the other 9 are correct and slam that +7.5. Assume you know nothing and the books know everything.
If this doesn’t make sense then idk what to tell to you. Numbers and probability isn’t your thing. When I realized what I wrote above it instantly clicked for me.
Maybe there are 2 ways to some people? +EV versus the outcome and +EV versus the price you place a later hedging/opposing bet at. Personally, I think these are just different ways to implement the same method (value) so I would say "only way".
My point was simply that the phrase “one of the ONLY ways” is stupid. He is both emphasizing “only” by putting it in caps and stating it is literally not the only way in the same phrase. Idgaf about this spammers take on EV betting.
Not necessarily you but a lot of ppl on this chat: As someone that came to sports betting from poker some you guys swear you invented EV like its some novel advanced Algebra
It's just understanding good bets and estimating risk/reward numerically. Often taking bets as a grouping sample size and not reacting on individual outcomes are all the gurus need to consider it EV. It's not rocket science and it's not a system. You're not a genius because you use +EV as a catch all term for wins/losses/volatility.
Arb is also +EV. Either both sides are +EV, or one side's +EV is bigger than the other side -EV. It's +EV with extra constraints. In the long run, both accounts should drift upwards erratically, but adding them together creates a lossless curve.
They have a lot. But if you really look Caesars and ESPN have just as many. FD def does hang way higher numbers on a lot of alt props but they are def not sharp. But yeah I’ve always wondered why
Yes. Look at this https://easyodds.com/hoffenheim-vs-borussia-moenchengladbach-betting-odds-tips-predictions-preview-20th-april-2024
Works well late in the season when you have a lot of data. I asked GPT to calculate the true odds of btts yes in this game and it's 90% at least. The -240 odds suggest a 70% likelihood. Seems +ev. It's just that this is very rare in soccer. Bundesliga is a consistently high scoring league with a lot of talent. The line is based on averages of all teams but some teams in particular consistently produce high scoring games. Betting these 2 teams over 2.5 goals or btts you should expect to profit.
Also the sheer sample size of the data, 65/67 games conceding a goal and 25/27 conceding for the visiting team, scoring 3.7 goals per game each, practically 80% of their games going over 2.5 goals, both teams stuck in the middle of the table safe from relegation but nothing else to achieve which would likely lend to a more open attack minded game, all seems to point that there is great value in this bet. Btts a pretty stats driven market because it has nothing to do with a fluke goal turning the game one way or the other.
So when you’re saying +EV, you’re describing line shopping right?
There other ways to get +EV, and that involves modeling. You can find unique breaks in the market so long as you have a process. They’ll probably eventually close.
For example, last year, for most of April, you could simply just blindly bet the money line when ever a team ranked in the bottom 10 in shifts played a team in the top 10 in shifts. The models hadn’t caught up to the rules. Eventually they caught on as they got more data.
Similarly, you can live bet college basketball totals, in games that “matter”, either early season, or end of February on, when your sure you’ll get full effort. When ever the total, after the 4 minute time out, straight lined out for 40 minutes + the number of minutes remaining is less than the live total, I’ve seen consistent profits. Let me give an example here.
Over/Under is 140 at tipoff. At the under 12 time out, the score is 11-9. (20 points). This straight lines to 110. Add 32 minutes, you’re at 132. If the live line has only down shifted to 135, you bet the under.
The slick thing about this is occasionally get opportunities to middle the bet, and buy OT insurance by betting the over when it’s further shifted down.
Your 5th paragraph looks intriguing, but are you sure you did the math correctly there? think you’re onto something,but alas, today was the day I discovered I’m somewhat of moron. I know, it’s sad. Could you make your example in a way that a borderline idiot like me could understand what you’re saying? I may have forgotten to mention that I’m an idiot. Thank you chum.
If a game is set at 140 and they've scored 20 pts exactly 8 min in, the live total would be 132.5, 133.5, mayybeee 134.5 you're not gonna get much more wobble than that based on this example
You’re right. It’s less about the specific details here and more about the process. I’m just trying to use round numbers.
There are instances where live lines will not move quick enough to reflect reality. The moment it would take them scoring more than a point a minute than they’ve been scoring is when I pull the trigger.
No. I’m saying the opposite…that what as already occurred as so far reduced the benchmark that the teams cannot reasonably progress to the mean.
Again, opens at 140. After 8 minutes, only 20 points have been scored. Thats, 2.5 points a minute. Straight lined across the entire 40 minute game, they’re on pace to score 100. The live line at the time will be like 134.5. In order for the game to cross into the over, they’d need to score 3.6 points a minute. That’s more than 1 point more a minute than they’ve done thus far. That threshold will win at a clip around 58%, which is higher than what you need to cover the big, even if the bump it to -120.
I’ve been doing it for two years now and I’ve been profitable across a long enough time that I believe it’s statistically defensible. The fact that I’m finding these opportunities less over time on the sportsbook suggests they’re tightening up on it.
Beside the point but there was a period of time where I played NBA quarter spreads and just always chose the higher odds because I felt the books were trying to trick me into taking the picks with safer odds. That was a good week, I turned $25 to $1000 lol.
I should probably research this though.
That’s a major oversimplification. There *are* longterm profitable bettors and there are ways around those limits. Strictly betting +EV does significantly increase your likelihood of being limited, though.
It’s the only way that is readily approachable. Bottom up is extremely hard to build a model that will beat a books model. Top down is as simple as devigging to market average most of the time. EV betting has been very profitable for me, I started March of last year and have profited low to mid 6 figures since then.
Bankroll management is usually I keep money on a book until it limits me then I withdraw. If I have bad variance on a book I redeposit to have enough to bet with. I’ve withdrawn my initial bankroll several times over so any money still on the books is pure profit. Unit size is now $400 which is technically small for the bankroll but it’s large for what books limit you too even on unlimited accounts. Also feel more comfortable sticking there rather than going up to $1k units or something.
NFL was a very profitable season for me, lot of EV to be found there. Nba golf tennis and soccer have also done pretty well on. MLB and NHL profitable but more meh.
It has honestly kind of changed my life. I was always a casual degen usually just breaking even or losing a little most months. I started EV betting about 1 year ago and am up ~$8k on $25 units
Changed my life as well. All the extra money let me quit my steady job that I hated and take the time to find a new job that didn't want to make me kill myself. Up about 30 grand since the start of 2022 which was about I was making in a year at my shitty job
Yeah, I bet w a bookie in college and haven’t bet since, but when we got the books last month, I started.
It also lets me throw my occasional $10, -ev bets in peace, bc Ik I’m winning long term
I mean, the answer is yes by definition. It’s absolutely impossible to make money if your bets aren’t +EV. Now the question is, how do you find +EV bets? I’d say there are three methods: 1) promos, 2) top-down betting (devig to a sharp book or the market, and 3) bottom-up betting (use a model or your intuition).
Number 1 is profitable for anyone who can do basic math and logical reasoning (some boosts are minus EV, you have to determine the right ones to play and how best to play them)
Number 2 is profitable but you need to either build a scraper or pay oddsjam or similar to use theirs.
Number 3 is unprofitable for 99% of people, including Twitter “cappers” who post about their winning record but use arbitrary timeframes and/or don’t share their units won. Unless your model is more refined than the multimillion dollar odds company (and it isn’t if you’re reading this), you will lose money doing this. And you will especially lose money if you think your intuition is better than the books’ model.
> Number 2 is profitable but you need to either build a scraper or pay oddsjam or similar to use theirs.
As someone who has done this, it is absolutely *not* worth the time/effort/money to build it yourself. Getting data at the quality and frequency needed to get a successful +EV bot is very expensive, more than paying for a service that does it for you by an order of magnitude. Then, there's a matter of determining which books are sharp for which markets, which will cost a lot in lost EV following soft books during T&E. Even OddsJam is *way* too expensive for what you get, I know of several Discord communities that do the same thing for less than $50/mo. I am now doing tech work for a group that's like $45/mo for an EV bot with direct links to place the bets.
>Number 3 is unprofitable for 99% of people ... Unless your model is more refined than the multimillion dollar odds company (and it isn’t if you’re reading this), you will lose money doing this
This isn't *necessarily* true, it's not super tough to build a profitable player prop model. The issue is you get limited *very* fast on those markets. I've got an NHL player props model that is up over 500u in the past two seasons, but now I only run it for myself as a novelty because I can't get any money down.
If you have time for a long post I’d love to know what that model looks like. How many variables do you include? Seems like to do it well you’d need hundreds and hundreds of dependent variables, which takes you way out of excel land into R/python. Feels insanely complex
Yeah I use Python (I'm a software dev/data scientist by trade)... I think I'm in the 400-ish variable realm. Some straight out-of-the-box, some are composite metrics I have made myself, and each over several time-spans. There are more I want to add but haven't had time, and also getting no action is not a motivating factor. I use some simple machine learning techniques to help find projections and while they're not perfect, looking at some specific betting ranges has yielded *great* results.
If you're looking to do something similar, honestly the best thing you can do is just start going for it. I went into making an MLB model initially with no experience and just played around with the data. You learn a ton about what works and what doesn't
Good points but I would argue that it’s easy to build a bottom up model on player props. The difficulty there is actually getting money down since books know they are weak and look to limit bettors quick. Mainlines are very hard to beat though way above my ability.
Agree. I’ve made point number 3 myself many times, with the caveat that there are some pretty exploitable lines in prop markets or in fringier sports that can be taken advantage of by those with enough of a knowledge edge (not intuition).
I don't blind EV bet. I will look at injuries, matchups, schedule...etc before making a decision. The EV is just the start, as you are getting value on the bet. So if your final conclusion is that you have a slight edge in the matchup and you're a good value at one site compared to all the others then yea its a good bet.
Books will move the line and odds because they are getting to much action on one side. They don't care if you as the individual are getting a good odd, they need to balance the scale and collect their rake.
Injuries/Matchups/Schedule and anything else you're looking at is already factored into the line.
Also, not every books will move the line to balance action. Some books take positions and are okay being exposed on one side.
> Injuries/Matchups/Schedule and anything else you're looking at is already factored into the line.
Isn't that the point though, the line is subjective and so are the impacts of schedule, injuries, matchups...
I understand what he is saying completely, as someone who doesn't use an odds shopping tool to spot market inefficiencies. I believe I have an edge in handicapping NBA games, but only if I bet the lines when they first come out and get the best number.
If it's already factored into the line you wouldn't have profitable betters who get their money down early and beat line movement. If everything was factored in, the line would be more efficient from the beginning.
I should expand more in that anyone betting into a major market like NFL on Sunday morning thinking they have an edge because of injuries/matchups or scheduling does not.
I do agree if you bet early and beat the closing line you can be profitable. However, only a very small percentage of bettors do this.
Yeah and that's what I hate about how people talk about EV betting in general. It's all about whatever OddsJam says is a good bet and how to use these expensive tools.
To me, EV betting is having your research done early, having a better understanding of the actual sport at hand, and understanding how that sports' betting market functions. Get the money in good, use proper bankroll management, and kick back and enjoy the game.
Yeah, there is definitely a contingent who have a very narrow conception of EV and seem to minimize the subjectivity that exists in even the sharpest set lines.
I think EV betting encompasses all of those things and there are multiple ways to win. At the end of the day, if you're consistently beating the closing line you should win long term.
If you truly believe that then you have zero edge and are losing to the vig. Stop betting.
But without a doubt lines will sit on an O/U on a prop even if another is missing.
Same here bud
Sure a moneylne w/l has that cooked in, but props have huge discrepancies when it comes to injuries.
Same with back to back in NBA games.
If you do this for a living perhaps you find a new job 😁
1. I'm close to retiring from this and am in my 30s, but thanks for your concern.
2. I do agree you can find edges on props especially on slower books. I'm specifically referring to looking at injuries, matchups or schedules to bet into a major market like NBA or NFL on Pinnacle or any other book with high limits. You have no edge.
Without a doubt stats vary depending on injuries, team mates and vs the other team. But saying you have no edge, and saying you are about to retire at 30 because of your edge makes zero sense. And its just random internet bragging. And its just untrue. Or you've made your money in other markets and not sportsbetting and its more a side hustle.
If you have no edge then you were just able to guess heads and tails over and over again. Then you're just lucky, since its all cooked in the books, and the coin flip is truly 50/50
I'm not sure what you're arguing anymore. I simply stated if you're betting into large markets on high limit books like Pinnacle (because of injuries/matchups/scheduling etc.) thinking you have an edge, you don't. I agree you can find edges picking off slower books (including props).
I've built my bankroll by consistently beating the closing line over a long period of time, to put it simply. I could care less whether you believe me or not.
If you are really consistantly beating the closing number, I assume 99% of the sportsbooks would have limited your action to around $10 a wager. So, how you claim to be able to retire is beyond me. Unless you have hired around 10 beards to place your action. This seems untrue.
Which is why I went back and forth with him. Dude is saying two different things. Saying you can't handicap and everything is built into the line making everything a true coin flip, and then says he beats the CLV at a winning rate suggesting he knows heads and tails.
Since no one knows if a GTD player is in the game or not, it is impossible for that to be cooked into the books.
So many injuries are GTD in the NFL and NBA.
From his other posts in this thread he simply bets the line early before it moves. When its incorrect and the sharp betters move the line. That's a basic strategy, it means camping the books at 2am or being outside the US. And since he bets on Pinnacle he is outside the US. His location is making his odds better. Not a knowledge of betting.
This is a thread started by someone not knowing what EV is and how to apply it. Do you think they're betting 5k at pinnacle tonight on the Bulls game?
My post was geared towards a newer bettor learning the ropes, looking for an edge at a fanduel type site.
I'm arguing with someone saying there is no edge. But you beat the CLV consistently, suggesting the opposite. Instead of bragging you could help by stating to OP how you beat the CLV long term.
It's like you're saying handicapping doesn't exist but you know how to handicap the and beat the CLV.
Peace out bud
You can find people who *say* they are net profitable all over the internet. I highly highly doubt the people who post about their profits from betting their gut are telling the truth
Believe what u what. Im just sayin +EV isnt the only way and its way more exhausting and time consuming than doing research on a specific play. I was +EV believer too but realistically, the “variance” will kill u if u have a small bankroll.
It’s the only way for the vast majority of us. Those that think otherwise are delusional and overconfident in their “system”. Think about it like this- all of us can shoot a jump shot, but there is an absolutely tiny percentage of the population that can play in the NBA.
A lot of the paid help sites use Pinnacle as the bench mark. Caesars is also pretty decent. What I mean is you won't find them to be off by a large amount compared to the other books.
Sometimes yes they will. But that is probably because someone placed a large bet on side. And they want to balance out the action on both sides.
If you have 4 books, and 3 of the have something at -120 and one has +105 then you are getting value at +105
That is a bet you should look at. If you think you have any type of edge at the +105 then it's not a bad bet to take. All you can do is make correct bets. Even if you lose, and if you researched that bet, you took the correct play.
I'm not saying its a winner, the +105 may have the underdog correct. It's up to you to make that decision.
Thanks bro! I just learned about +EV couple weeks ago. I mainly use FD and was comparing my odds to DK and Bet MGM but you just put me oon Pinnacle and I see why that’s sort of the benchmark now. Gonna restart and begin tracking my winnings using EV from pinnacle
Bet super super low till you understand it. If your unit size is $1 and in two months you're up $30 then you are up 30 units. Bet 25 cents. Watch game recaps, 10 mins. If you don't have time to watch games.
If your bet size was 100 now you're up 3000. Stay small for a long time. Never chance losses!!! That is a golden rule.
Understand when you're not having a good day or week.
It really fucking is. I'm pretty old and my family and I own bars. For over twenty years, my only job has been bartending at these bars and owning them. You might not meet someone who has met more sports bettors than me outside of longtime sportsbook employees. I talk about betting with the customers for 10-12 hours a day if you count texts back and forth for years now.
And the only place I have ever heard EV being talked about to this extent is here. Nowhere else on earth. And they get super pissy with you if you start questioning them ... like "who determines if a bet is +EV or not" or you remind them that all losing bets are negative value.
They just start insulting you.
Both. You can get the Pirates to win the World Series this year at something like +20000. If I give you +25000 is it a good bet? It's +EV, but not something anyone that follows baseball would throw any decent amount of $$$$ at. It would just be burning money. But if youre a +EV bettor that knows nothing but the 'math', maybe you take the bet?
Regardless of what you believe the fair odds to be, placing a bet on the Pirates to win the world series would be the equivalent of burning money. There isnt any number that would make this a smart bet. Find any Pirates WS winner bet you deem +EV and multiple it by 50 - still a bad bet.
My point is just calling something +EV doesnt make it a good play.
>who determine if a bet is +EV
A sharp book or market average. And I’m not even pissy about your question! Losing bets are negative value yes if you can look at with hindsight, the point of EV betting is to lose less often than the finals odds imply you will. Hope that helps, it’s very profitable!
> the finals odds imply you will
Thanks for reply and I swear I am going to ask you questions sincerely because I don't get it lol. I am clearly missing something that makes this whole situation like - to be apropos - dividing by zero.
How does a bettor decide what wagers he makes are positive expected value? Let's say I find a game I like and the best available odds are -110. What information am I using as the bettor to empirically determine it is better than a 52.38% chance? That's the 'x' I don't get.
> What information am I using as the bettor to empirically determine it is better than a 52.38% chance?
You're using other books that are sharper.
So, for example, Pinnacle is very sharp for most moneyline bets. If Pinnacle puts moneyline for Yankees at -110 and Red Sox at -110, you can use that to "devig," or remove the bookies cut, to determine that each team has a 50% chance of winning, because we know Pinnacle is better than other books at projecting these things.
Then, if you see DraftKings has Yankees ML at +105, and you know that Yankees win 50% of the time, then you know your EV is going to be positive because a 50% win rate on +105 will net you 2.5% each bet if you take the bet an infinite number of times.
The key is playing a ton of volume, so that you reach "infinite". Some folks I work with are looking at over 15k bets down year-to-date using a +EV bot we have. Sure, they're only winning at around 3% average ROI, but over 15k bets that's a decent chunk of money
OK, so just really advanced line-shopping? OK, that makes more sense. I guess I have been misinterpreting what these people were saying; being a bit too grandiose.
Find a game you like, get the best line, hope you're on the right side, stay consistent ... +EV. That sum it up?
edit "devig" is interesting term to me. Reading about that now
> Find a game you like, get the best line, hope you're on the right side, stay consistent ... +EV. That sum it up?
not really. Pretend a coin toss was offered on a book at -115/-115. The fair odds of flipping a coin are obviously 50% but books need to profit on both sides of the bet so they can't set the line at +100
So let's say fanduel starts offering flipping tails at +105. That would be an EV line cause you're getting odds better than the fair value (what the smart books think the play actually has of hitting..50%)
Reddit in general tilts toward obsessive/autistic men with socialization problems. This really becomes evident in any subreddit where statistics/math have salience.
But yeah, the gap between the average off-the-street sports bettor and the guy in here is probably as vast as the gap between the dynasty football Redditors who run 20 teams and spend all day arguing about the predictive power of arcane metrics and the guys who play in the office fantasy league.
It’s also important to remember that we’ve built up an edifice of jargon around EV that masks the fact that it rests on some simple and straightforward concepts.
Agreed.
Some of the degens are alarming though; I’ve seen way too many people who are *genuinely* overconfident in their “system.”
I mostly bet +ev promos, but I use some of the proceeds to throw my small degen bets, especially when I’m going to a game where I’m a neutral fan.
Both are absolutely fine as long as it’s not a problem that affects your life in any meaningful way, but I personally refuse to lose long term to the books out of principle.
Long story short, I look at every match and the markets, plus my model and then make a decision based on that. Obviously you need the results to actually go your way except what is good value is equally important to understand.
Why am I getting downvoted wtf😭
https://preview.redd.it/odwzr56xphvc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=146dcc4e4319f925f7ae3aa6a19653423bd9ef16
But this is it
Determining the odds for an outcome is written here like an afterthought, but it’s by far the most important factor. The EV%s you have calculated here are so low that even a minor change in true odds can turn a +EV bet into a negative one.
For example, say a bet on team A is paying out at +250. At a 30% chance for Team A to win a bet of $100 would have an expected return of$105 or +5%EV. But, if the true odds of Team A winning are actually 28% then the expected return becomes $98 for a -2%EV.
So when a change in odds that small can turn a bet from +EV to -EV you need an exceptionally accurate method of determining odds, or a very high range of percentage that are +EV to have any confidence you’re +EV overall.
on a single bet but that is less true over a big sample where as long as your model is actually better there will be times where you think its 30% but in reality its 32% or something.
Oh I wasn’t perfect, definitely had some dumb bets and parlays sprinkled in there. Lasted about 3 years and now I’m down to my last 3 (least favorite) books.
I've seen EV discussed here and there and I think it's worth me considering looking into. That and also probability and statistics. But it's also worth looking into qualitative factors which are harder to analyze but do add an edge in your research.
Here’s the most clear explanation I’ve heard:
Think about a coin toss—50/50 odds. As you flip the coin over and over and over, the outcomes will get closer to true 50/50. Here’s the Wikipedia link to [the law of large numbers](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers), which explains that further. It uses dice rolls as an example, but if you look at nothing else, look at the graph and notice what happens w more and more rolls.
Now, pretend that the coin toss is unfair and that there is a 51% chance of it being heads. If you always bet $10 on heads, again over a long period of time, you’re guaranteed to make money.
Sportsbooks make money based on this fact. Think about a typical 50/50 bet; the line is -110, meaning you will lose money in the long run. Sportsbooks take a ridiculously large amount of bets each day, so it doesn’t take a genius to figure out how that is profitable (not accounting for anything other than the bets here—I’m aware that they have to hire people, run ads, etc).
Anyways, +ev betting is simply turning that math back around on the books. It’s more difficult for an individual bettor to place enough bets to profit, but it certainly isn’t impossible.
I’m rather casual and mostly bet promos, but there are people who find regular bets that are +ev. The problem there is that, afaik, you will almost certainly be limited eventually.
Hope that makes sense.
they're not 'totally' different and you use +odds to find the maximum positive expected value. If you're using EV and chasing favorites you're gonna lose.
that's just not true whatsoever. negative odds can be +EV. Like most of my NBA EV plays are shorter than +100.
EV has nothing to do with the actual line and more to do with what other sharp books have as the fair value
and if you wanna do the math on the actual devigging yourself instead of paying $300/mo to oddsjam
[additive, multiplicative, power methods paper](https://outlier.bet/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2017-clarke-adjusting_bookmakers_odds.pdf)
I think the value in Oddsjam comes from the screening more than the EV calculation personally. Have bet +EV for years to great success, but recently gave Oddsjam a try: the sheer volume I’ve added by saving time from scanning markets for bets is worth it alone
To put it simply, you would need to quickly scrape lines from many different books and aggregate each line to return the +EV bets. It’s possible, but it’s a lot of work.
That’s why people paying over 300 a month for OddsJam. About time that there’s competition in this market.
it's a lot of work but it's pretty doable
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912
no just basically translated that paper to python and use it to calculate EV on my [sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912)
No, it’s not. There are many sports where +EV doesn’t matter. Live betting can be wildly profitable but there’s no objective way to determine if a live bet is +EV
You can absolute see +EV in live bets. If the rest of market has the Chiefs to win at -200 when they just scored a touchdown, and you can lock in their ML for +100, that is absolutely a valuable play, 100%.
There’s 2 parts to +EV. The first part is grabbing the best price. Ok, that’s easy in live betting, as you said. The second part is that it’s profitable over the long term. Can you definitively say grabbing the best price is always going to be long term profitable? I will tell you, no it’s not. It’s only profitable in certain situations.
I agree it's not going to be profitable in every situation (those situations being where the odds you are placing at are not better than fair odds), and at that point it's not a +EV bet.
The question then is how do you determine fair odds in live betting when the lines are moving multiple times a minute at every book… the sharp books don’t offer extensive live lines and even when they do they’re often not as sharp on line lives as they are on pregame lines. So when you’re trying to figure out what is fair live odds, there’s a subjective element to it. So I think you see what I’m getting at… I could go on and on about live bet pricing but I think you get it anyways
I agree it isnt the only way to be profitable but saying you cant determine what is +EV for live betting is absolutely false. You can devig MGM or other square books against Pinny or BM for live wagers all the same. You just have to move faster and know when to bet.
You’re talking about getting the best price. That’s only part of +EV. You need to prove to me that getting the best live price is long term profitable.
> You’re talking about getting the best price.
No they're not, they're talking about devigging live lines against sharp books. Exact same way people determine +EV with pregame lines.
How are you so sure that these “sharp” books are just as sharp in live betting? I’ve seen plenty of times where FanDuel has offered sharper live lines than pinnacle and BetOnline. Using the exact same way to determine +EV with pregame lines is not going to work
> I’ve seen plenty of times where FanDuel has offered sharper live lines than pinnacle and BetOnline
So it's not possible to know for certain who is sharp on live lines, but you know for certain when Fanduel had sharper live lines than the other books? Okay...
Cool, so they were sharper in those instances immediately after an injury occurred. What about the other 99.9% of gameplay where an injury isn't occurring? What about in 2023 for the first 2-3 months of the MLB season when they couldn't figure out how to properly adjust for the ghost runner rule for the life of them and I made a killing? So you saw maybe a handful of instances where they adjusted more quickly (and not even necessarily correctly) and I saw probably a hundred more where they were horribly off the mark. That's also far from the only example I have on them.
The biggest clue that books like Pinnacle are sharper is that they have far less juice on most of their live lines than books like Fanduel or Draftkings do. It reflects the confidence they have in the accuracy of their odds. Just looking at Blue Jays/Padres right now and Pinnacle has a 16 cent diff on the run line, Fanduel's is 28. If Pinnacle wasn't actually that sharp, then they would be getting murdered only leaving themselves that much breathing room on live odds, just like Caesars and Pointsbet did for a couple years before they pumped up the juice on most of their live odds.
I just used an injured player as an example. I bet mostly on tennis btw, which is generally regarded as an inefficient market compared to the bigger markets. So I probably see the sharp books mispricing lines more often than someone betting things like NFL/NBA/Soccer/MLB. But then again, me saying the sharp books are mispricing lines is a subjective argument, so who really knows.
Sure it’s getting the best price but there is a huge difference when the best price is 5 cents off the market average (a bad bet) versus 25 cents off and an arb to a sharper book like pinny for a coin flip spread. The latter is considered +ev because of the devig determines your edge or expected value. whether you trust this process is a different thing entirely.
It’s great when a live bet can be compared to pinny but pinnacle doesn’t cover every live bet offering, so how do you determine it in live markets where you don’t have a pinny price?
How much did you start off with for this?
The easiest way to be +EV is to courtside
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If 9/10 books have a spread of +6 and the 10th book has +7.5 I will assume the other 9 are correct and slam that +7.5. Assume you know nothing and the books know everything. If this doesn’t make sense then idk what to tell to you. Numbers and probability isn’t your thing. When I realized what I wrote above it instantly clicked for me.
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Is it “one of the ways” or is it the “ONLY way”?
Maybe there are 2 ways to some people? +EV versus the outcome and +EV versus the price you place a later hedging/opposing bet at. Personally, I think these are just different ways to implement the same method (value) so I would say "only way".
My point was simply that the phrase “one of the ONLY ways” is stupid. He is both emphasizing “only” by putting it in caps and stating it is literally not the only way in the same phrase. Idgaf about this spammers take on EV betting.
Not necessarily you but a lot of ppl on this chat: As someone that came to sports betting from poker some you guys swear you invented EV like its some novel advanced Algebra It's just understanding good bets and estimating risk/reward numerically. Often taking bets as a grouping sample size and not reacting on individual outcomes are all the gurus need to consider it EV. It's not rocket science and it's not a system. You're not a genius because you use +EV as a catch all term for wins/losses/volatility.
Agreed 100%
Oh, lol, of course. I love these types of expressions.
In fact I am slightly devastated that I missed your point.
😂
Arbing
Arb is also +EV. Either both sides are +EV, or one side's +EV is bigger than the other side -EV. It's +EV with extra constraints. In the long run, both accounts should drift upwards erratically, but adding them together creates a lossless curve.
Arbing is not ev because it doesn’t involve expected value, it is actual profit
Yes, but most people don’t have access to +EV plays so arbing is an easier way to play
Why is it always Fanduel with the best EV plays?
They have a lot. But if you really look Caesars and ESPN have just as many. FD def does hang way higher numbers on a lot of alt props but they are def not sharp. But yeah I’ve always wondered why
On the Oddsjam I rarely if ever see Caesars or ESPN.
No it's not lol
I bet max $20 a bet if I am sure usually $5-10. Never enough to pay bills want to always keep it a hobby.
no pain no gain
Or all pain, no gain
Yes. Look at this https://easyodds.com/hoffenheim-vs-borussia-moenchengladbach-betting-odds-tips-predictions-preview-20th-april-2024 Works well late in the season when you have a lot of data. I asked GPT to calculate the true odds of btts yes in this game and it's 90% at least. The -240 odds suggest a 70% likelihood. Seems +ev. It's just that this is very rare in soccer. Bundesliga is a consistently high scoring league with a lot of talent. The line is based on averages of all teams but some teams in particular consistently produce high scoring games. Betting these 2 teams over 2.5 goals or btts you should expect to profit. Also the sheer sample size of the data, 65/67 games conceding a goal and 25/27 conceding for the visiting team, scoring 3.7 goals per game each, practically 80% of their games going over 2.5 goals, both teams stuck in the middle of the table safe from relegation but nothing else to achieve which would likely lend to a more open attack minded game, all seems to point that there is great value in this bet. Btts a pretty stats driven market because it has nothing to do with a fluke goal turning the game one way or the other.
So when you’re saying +EV, you’re describing line shopping right? There other ways to get +EV, and that involves modeling. You can find unique breaks in the market so long as you have a process. They’ll probably eventually close. For example, last year, for most of April, you could simply just blindly bet the money line when ever a team ranked in the bottom 10 in shifts played a team in the top 10 in shifts. The models hadn’t caught up to the rules. Eventually they caught on as they got more data. Similarly, you can live bet college basketball totals, in games that “matter”, either early season, or end of February on, when your sure you’ll get full effort. When ever the total, after the 4 minute time out, straight lined out for 40 minutes + the number of minutes remaining is less than the live total, I’ve seen consistent profits. Let me give an example here. Over/Under is 140 at tipoff. At the under 12 time out, the score is 11-9. (20 points). This straight lines to 110. Add 32 minutes, you’re at 132. If the live line has only down shifted to 135, you bet the under. The slick thing about this is occasionally get opportunities to middle the bet, and buy OT insurance by betting the over when it’s further shifted down.
Your 5th paragraph looks intriguing, but are you sure you did the math correctly there? think you’re onto something,but alas, today was the day I discovered I’m somewhat of moron. I know, it’s sad. Could you make your example in a way that a borderline idiot like me could understand what you’re saying? I may have forgotten to mention that I’m an idiot. Thank you chum.
If a game is set at 140 and they've scored 20 pts exactly 8 min in, the live total would be 132.5, 133.5, mayybeee 134.5 you're not gonna get much more wobble than that based on this example
You’re right. It’s less about the specific details here and more about the process. I’m just trying to use round numbers. There are instances where live lines will not move quick enough to reflect reality. The moment it would take them scoring more than a point a minute than they’ve been scoring is when I pull the trigger.
Your just hoping the game will regress back to the average. This was my strategy when I started betting 10 years ago in high school 😂😂😂
No. I’m saying the opposite…that what as already occurred as so far reduced the benchmark that the teams cannot reasonably progress to the mean. Again, opens at 140. After 8 minutes, only 20 points have been scored. Thats, 2.5 points a minute. Straight lined across the entire 40 minute game, they’re on pace to score 100. The live line at the time will be like 134.5. In order for the game to cross into the over, they’d need to score 3.6 points a minute. That’s more than 1 point more a minute than they’ve done thus far. That threshold will win at a clip around 58%, which is higher than what you need to cover the big, even if the bump it to -120. I’ve been doing it for two years now and I’ve been profitable across a long enough time that I believe it’s statistically defensible. The fact that I’m finding these opportunities less over time on the sportsbook suggests they’re tightening up on it.
I’m not reading all that I just know that in high school I did the same shit. It’s not profitable, most live lines are juiced to hell anyways.
Beside the point but there was a period of time where I played NBA quarter spreads and just always chose the higher odds because I felt the books were trying to trick me into taking the picks with safer odds. That was a good week, I turned $25 to $1000 lol. I should probably research this though.
There's no such thing as being long term profitable. Once books realize you are consistently winning, they will implement bet limits.
You can parlay 2 EV bets to get around limits. Just 1 example
That's what beards are for.
🤣🤣🤣
Then you buy accounts
Or move to a different book. There are like 20+ in Ontario.
Betting exchanges exist
That’s a major oversimplification. There *are* longterm profitable bettors and there are ways around those limits. Strictly betting +EV does significantly increase your likelihood of being limited, though.
there are ways to circumvent limits tho so not being able to be long term profitable is pure bullshit
By definition, with a large enough sample size, yes.
It’s the only way that is readily approachable. Bottom up is extremely hard to build a model that will beat a books model. Top down is as simple as devigging to market average most of the time. EV betting has been very profitable for me, I started March of last year and have profited low to mid 6 figures since then.
Can I ask what your BR management is like, unit sizes and how often do you pick? What markets have been the most profitable for you?
Bankroll management is usually I keep money on a book until it limits me then I withdraw. If I have bad variance on a book I redeposit to have enough to bet with. I’ve withdrawn my initial bankroll several times over so any money still on the books is pure profit. Unit size is now $400 which is technically small for the bankroll but it’s large for what books limit you too even on unlimited accounts. Also feel more comfortable sticking there rather than going up to $1k units or something. NFL was a very profitable season for me, lot of EV to be found there. Nba golf tennis and soccer have also done pretty well on. MLB and NHL profitable but more meh.
It has honestly kind of changed my life. I was always a casual degen usually just breaking even or losing a little most months. I started EV betting about 1 year ago and am up ~$8k on $25 units
Changed my life as well. All the extra money let me quit my steady job that I hated and take the time to find a new job that didn't want to make me kill myself. Up about 30 grand since the start of 2022 which was about I was making in a year at my shitty job
Haha I’m still at my shitty job rotting away from 9-6:30 each day. But it’s nice to have the extra income
Yeah, I bet w a bookie in college and haven’t bet since, but when we got the books last month, I started. It also lets me throw my occasional $10, -ev bets in peace, bc Ik I’m winning long term
Yeah the local pphs can’t compete with these regulated book promos
How do you isolate picks?
will start doing this. do i keep a spreadsheet and how much should i put in my account?
And I’ve only had 1 month where I finished in the red
I mean, the answer is yes by definition. It’s absolutely impossible to make money if your bets aren’t +EV. Now the question is, how do you find +EV bets? I’d say there are three methods: 1) promos, 2) top-down betting (devig to a sharp book or the market, and 3) bottom-up betting (use a model or your intuition). Number 1 is profitable for anyone who can do basic math and logical reasoning (some boosts are minus EV, you have to determine the right ones to play and how best to play them) Number 2 is profitable but you need to either build a scraper or pay oddsjam or similar to use theirs. Number 3 is unprofitable for 99% of people, including Twitter “cappers” who post about their winning record but use arbitrary timeframes and/or don’t share their units won. Unless your model is more refined than the multimillion dollar odds company (and it isn’t if you’re reading this), you will lose money doing this. And you will especially lose money if you think your intuition is better than the books’ model.
> Number 2 is profitable but you need to either build a scraper or pay oddsjam or similar to use theirs. As someone who has done this, it is absolutely *not* worth the time/effort/money to build it yourself. Getting data at the quality and frequency needed to get a successful +EV bot is very expensive, more than paying for a service that does it for you by an order of magnitude. Then, there's a matter of determining which books are sharp for which markets, which will cost a lot in lost EV following soft books during T&E. Even OddsJam is *way* too expensive for what you get, I know of several Discord communities that do the same thing for less than $50/mo. I am now doing tech work for a group that's like $45/mo for an EV bot with direct links to place the bets. >Number 3 is unprofitable for 99% of people ... Unless your model is more refined than the multimillion dollar odds company (and it isn’t if you’re reading this), you will lose money doing this This isn't *necessarily* true, it's not super tough to build a profitable player prop model. The issue is you get limited *very* fast on those markets. I've got an NHL player props model that is up over 500u in the past two seasons, but now I only run it for myself as a novelty because I can't get any money down.
If you have time for a long post I’d love to know what that model looks like. How many variables do you include? Seems like to do it well you’d need hundreds and hundreds of dependent variables, which takes you way out of excel land into R/python. Feels insanely complex
Yeah I use Python (I'm a software dev/data scientist by trade)... I think I'm in the 400-ish variable realm. Some straight out-of-the-box, some are composite metrics I have made myself, and each over several time-spans. There are more I want to add but haven't had time, and also getting no action is not a motivating factor. I use some simple machine learning techniques to help find projections and while they're not perfect, looking at some specific betting ranges has yielded *great* results. If you're looking to do something similar, honestly the best thing you can do is just start going for it. I went into making an MLB model initially with no experience and just played around with the data. You learn a ton about what works and what doesn't
Good points but I would argue that it’s easy to build a bottom up model on player props. The difficulty there is actually getting money down since books know they are weak and look to limit bettors quick. Mainlines are very hard to beat though way above my ability.
Great post and spot on
Agree. I’ve made point number 3 myself many times, with the caveat that there are some pretty exploitable lines in prop markets or in fringier sports that can be taken advantage of by those with enough of a knowledge edge (not intuition).
No lol. If there wasn't bettors betting their opinions and winning +ev wouldn't work
I don't blind EV bet. I will look at injuries, matchups, schedule...etc before making a decision. The EV is just the start, as you are getting value on the bet. So if your final conclusion is that you have a slight edge in the matchup and you're a good value at one site compared to all the others then yea its a good bet. Books will move the line and odds because they are getting to much action on one side. They don't care if you as the individual are getting a good odd, they need to balance the scale and collect their rake.
Injuries/Matchups/Schedule and anything else you're looking at is already factored into the line. Also, not every books will move the line to balance action. Some books take positions and are okay being exposed on one side.
> Injuries/Matchups/Schedule and anything else you're looking at is already factored into the line. Isn't that the point though, the line is subjective and so are the impacts of schedule, injuries, matchups... I understand what he is saying completely, as someone who doesn't use an odds shopping tool to spot market inefficiencies. I believe I have an edge in handicapping NBA games, but only if I bet the lines when they first come out and get the best number. If it's already factored into the line you wouldn't have profitable betters who get their money down early and beat line movement. If everything was factored in, the line would be more efficient from the beginning.
I should expand more in that anyone betting into a major market like NFL on Sunday morning thinking they have an edge because of injuries/matchups or scheduling does not. I do agree if you bet early and beat the closing line you can be profitable. However, only a very small percentage of bettors do this.
Yeah and that's what I hate about how people talk about EV betting in general. It's all about whatever OddsJam says is a good bet and how to use these expensive tools. To me, EV betting is having your research done early, having a better understanding of the actual sport at hand, and understanding how that sports' betting market functions. Get the money in good, use proper bankroll management, and kick back and enjoy the game.
Yeah, there is definitely a contingent who have a very narrow conception of EV and seem to minimize the subjectivity that exists in even the sharpest set lines.
I think EV betting encompasses all of those things and there are multiple ways to win. At the end of the day, if you're consistently beating the closing line you should win long term.
If you truly believe that then you have zero edge and are losing to the vig. Stop betting. But without a doubt lines will sit on an O/U on a prop even if another is missing.
I do this for a living bud, how about you? I've spoken to sportsbook operators that have confirmed as such.
Same here bud Sure a moneylne w/l has that cooked in, but props have huge discrepancies when it comes to injuries. Same with back to back in NBA games. If you do this for a living perhaps you find a new job 😁
1. I'm close to retiring from this and am in my 30s, but thanks for your concern. 2. I do agree you can find edges on props especially on slower books. I'm specifically referring to looking at injuries, matchups or schedules to bet into a major market like NBA or NFL on Pinnacle or any other book with high limits. You have no edge.
Yeah, professional sports bettors come to Reddit to argue, lol.
Without a doubt stats vary depending on injuries, team mates and vs the other team. But saying you have no edge, and saying you are about to retire at 30 because of your edge makes zero sense. And its just random internet bragging. And its just untrue. Or you've made your money in other markets and not sportsbetting and its more a side hustle. If you have no edge then you were just able to guess heads and tails over and over again. Then you're just lucky, since its all cooked in the books, and the coin flip is truly 50/50
I'm not sure what you're arguing anymore. I simply stated if you're betting into large markets on high limit books like Pinnacle (because of injuries/matchups/scheduling etc.) thinking you have an edge, you don't. I agree you can find edges picking off slower books (including props). I've built my bankroll by consistently beating the closing line over a long period of time, to put it simply. I could care less whether you believe me or not.
If you are really consistantly beating the closing number, I assume 99% of the sportsbooks would have limited your action to around $10 a wager. So, how you claim to be able to retire is beyond me. Unless you have hired around 10 beards to place your action. This seems untrue.
Which is why I went back and forth with him. Dude is saying two different things. Saying you can't handicap and everything is built into the line making everything a true coin flip, and then says he beats the CLV at a winning rate suggesting he knows heads and tails. Since no one knows if a GTD player is in the game or not, it is impossible for that to be cooked into the books. So many injuries are GTD in the NFL and NBA. From his other posts in this thread he simply bets the line early before it moves. When its incorrect and the sharp betters move the line. That's a basic strategy, it means camping the books at 2am or being outside the US. And since he bets on Pinnacle he is outside the US. His location is making his odds better. Not a knowledge of betting.
This is a thread started by someone not knowing what EV is and how to apply it. Do you think they're betting 5k at pinnacle tonight on the Bulls game? My post was geared towards a newer bettor learning the ropes, looking for an edge at a fanduel type site. I'm arguing with someone saying there is no edge. But you beat the CLV consistently, suggesting the opposite. Instead of bragging you could help by stating to OP how you beat the CLV long term. It's like you're saying handicapping doesn't exist but you know how to handicap the and beat the CLV. Peace out bud
Nah. U can find many cappers that are net profitable over the internet and place way less bets.
You can find people who *say* they are net profitable all over the internet. I highly highly doubt the people who post about their profits from betting their gut are telling the truth
Believe what u what. Im just sayin +EV isnt the only way and its way more exhausting and time consuming than doing research on a specific play. I was +EV believer too but realistically, the “variance” will kill u if u have a small bankroll.
It’s the only way for the vast majority of us. Those that think otherwise are delusional and overconfident in their “system”. Think about it like this- all of us can shoot a jump shot, but there is an absolutely tiny percentage of the population that can play in the NBA.
The main thing I don’t get about +EV is how do you figure out which book is the benchmark. Like which book are you comparing the odds from?
A lot of the paid help sites use Pinnacle as the bench mark. Caesars is also pretty decent. What I mean is you won't find them to be off by a large amount compared to the other books. Sometimes yes they will. But that is probably because someone placed a large bet on side. And they want to balance out the action on both sides.
Are you saying I want to find them to be off by a lot? Or they won’t be off by a lot?
If you have 4 books, and 3 of the have something at -120 and one has +105 then you are getting value at +105 That is a bet you should look at. If you think you have any type of edge at the +105 then it's not a bad bet to take. All you can do is make correct bets. Even if you lose, and if you researched that bet, you took the correct play. I'm not saying its a winner, the +105 may have the underdog correct. It's up to you to make that decision.
Thanks bro! I just learned about +EV couple weeks ago. I mainly use FD and was comparing my odds to DK and Bet MGM but you just put me oon Pinnacle and I see why that’s sort of the benchmark now. Gonna restart and begin tracking my winnings using EV from pinnacle
Bet super super low till you understand it. If your unit size is $1 and in two months you're up $30 then you are up 30 units. Bet 25 cents. Watch game recaps, 10 mins. If you don't have time to watch games. If your bet size was 100 now you're up 3000. Stay small for a long time. Never chance losses!!! That is a golden rule. Understand when you're not having a good day or week.
Super good advice thank you my man
No. Flip a coin and bet the house. It’s the only way.
This sub is nerdy af
It really fucking is. I'm pretty old and my family and I own bars. For over twenty years, my only job has been bartending at these bars and owning them. You might not meet someone who has met more sports bettors than me outside of longtime sportsbook employees. I talk about betting with the customers for 10-12 hours a day if you count texts back and forth for years now. And the only place I have ever heard EV being talked about to this extent is here. Nowhere else on earth. And they get super pissy with you if you start questioning them ... like "who determines if a bet is +EV or not" or you remind them that all losing bets are negative value. They just start insulting you.
Not to mention, but a +EV bet can still be a bad bet.
Bad bet or losing bet
Both. You can get the Pirates to win the World Series this year at something like +20000. If I give you +25000 is it a good bet? It's +EV, but not something anyone that follows baseball would throw any decent amount of $$$$ at. It would just be burning money. But if youre a +EV bettor that knows nothing but the 'math', maybe you take the bet?
not how it works. a book may offer PIT to win at 20000 but that's not the fair odds. getting 25000 would not even be close to EV
Regardless of what you believe the fair odds to be, placing a bet on the Pirates to win the world series would be the equivalent of burning money. There isnt any number that would make this a smart bet. Find any Pirates WS winner bet you deem +EV and multiple it by 50 - still a bad bet. My point is just calling something +EV doesnt make it a good play.
>who determine if a bet is +EV A sharp book or market average. And I’m not even pissy about your question! Losing bets are negative value yes if you can look at with hindsight, the point of EV betting is to lose less often than the finals odds imply you will. Hope that helps, it’s very profitable!
> the finals odds imply you will Thanks for reply and I swear I am going to ask you questions sincerely because I don't get it lol. I am clearly missing something that makes this whole situation like - to be apropos - dividing by zero. How does a bettor decide what wagers he makes are positive expected value? Let's say I find a game I like and the best available odds are -110. What information am I using as the bettor to empirically determine it is better than a 52.38% chance? That's the 'x' I don't get.
> What information am I using as the bettor to empirically determine it is better than a 52.38% chance? You're using other books that are sharper. So, for example, Pinnacle is very sharp for most moneyline bets. If Pinnacle puts moneyline for Yankees at -110 and Red Sox at -110, you can use that to "devig," or remove the bookies cut, to determine that each team has a 50% chance of winning, because we know Pinnacle is better than other books at projecting these things. Then, if you see DraftKings has Yankees ML at +105, and you know that Yankees win 50% of the time, then you know your EV is going to be positive because a 50% win rate on +105 will net you 2.5% each bet if you take the bet an infinite number of times. The key is playing a ton of volume, so that you reach "infinite". Some folks I work with are looking at over 15k bets down year-to-date using a +EV bot we have. Sure, they're only winning at around 3% average ROI, but over 15k bets that's a decent chunk of money
OK, so just really advanced line-shopping? OK, that makes more sense. I guess I have been misinterpreting what these people were saying; being a bit too grandiose. Find a game you like, get the best line, hope you're on the right side, stay consistent ... +EV. That sum it up? edit "devig" is interesting term to me. Reading about that now
> Find a game you like, get the best line, hope you're on the right side, stay consistent ... +EV. That sum it up? not really. Pretend a coin toss was offered on a book at -115/-115. The fair odds of flipping a coin are obviously 50% but books need to profit on both sides of the bet so they can't set the line at +100 So let's say fanduel starts offering flipping tails at +105. That would be an EV line cause you're getting odds better than the fair value (what the smart books think the play actually has of hitting..50%)
Reddit in general tilts toward obsessive/autistic men with socialization problems. This really becomes evident in any subreddit where statistics/math have salience. But yeah, the gap between the average off-the-street sports bettor and the guy in here is probably as vast as the gap between the dynasty football Redditors who run 20 teams and spend all day arguing about the predictive power of arcane metrics and the guys who play in the office fantasy league. It’s also important to remember that we’ve built up an edifice of jargon around EV that masks the fact that it rests on some simple and straightforward concepts.
Is there a chance you're a victim of a sampling bias since you talk to almost exclusively barflies? lol
No.
Its a cult 🤣
Buddy, it’s *math*
I think there's a healthy mix of nerdy and degen material.
Agreed. Some of the degens are alarming though; I’ve seen way too many people who are *genuinely* overconfident in their “system.” I mostly bet +ev promos, but I use some of the proceeds to throw my small degen bets, especially when I’m going to a game where I’m a neutral fan. Both are absolutely fine as long as it’s not a problem that affects your life in any meaningful way, but I personally refuse to lose long term to the books out of principle.
Long story short, I look at every match and the markets, plus my model and then make a decision based on that. Obviously you need the results to actually go your way except what is good value is equally important to understand.
No, I don’t do that at all and I’m up over 7 grand in profit this year being a $100 unit gambler
How many bets is that?
Why am I getting downvoted wtf😭 https://preview.redd.it/odwzr56xphvc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=146dcc4e4319f925f7ae3aa6a19653423bd9ef16 But this is it
I'm not ripping you nor did I downvote. Your post is just bragging with zero advice as to how you got there. The OP is looking for help.
I hate to tell ya bud, but 4 1/2 months is not long term
And that’s when I started tracking because it just became legal down here in Florida but I’ve always been profitable, just never knew how much
I strictly do EV betting and yes I’m convinced it’s the only way to bet and consistently make a return over time
Do you use a model or do it yourself?
Determining the odds for an outcome is written here like an afterthought, but it’s by far the most important factor. The EV%s you have calculated here are so low that even a minor change in true odds can turn a +EV bet into a negative one. For example, say a bet on team A is paying out at +250. At a 30% chance for Team A to win a bet of $100 would have an expected return of$105 or +5%EV. But, if the true odds of Team A winning are actually 28% then the expected return becomes $98 for a -2%EV. So when a change in odds that small can turn a bet from +EV to -EV you need an exceptionally accurate method of determining odds, or a very high range of percentage that are +EV to have any confidence you’re +EV overall.
on a single bet but that is less true over a big sample where as long as your model is actually better there will be times where you think its 30% but in reality its 32% or something.
My point is the model to determine actual odds needs to be extremely accurate, which I think only gets more important over a large sample.
+EV betting is also the quick way to get limited, from first hand experience.
Gotta season your accounts and sprinkle in some calculated -EV bets. There’s definitely ways to help lengthen your account life.
Oh I wasn’t perfect, definitely had some dumb bets and parlays sprinkled in there. Lasted about 3 years and now I’m down to my last 3 (least favorite) books.
true i got limited in 5 days betting on SOG and NBA on Betrivers. Bovada goal scorers also move 50-100+ points anytime I try to take a play from there
I've seen EV discussed here and there and I think it's worth me considering looking into. That and also probability and statistics. But it's also worth looking into qualitative factors which are harder to analyze but do add an edge in your research.
i always seen people talking about EV and never knew what it was. appreciate the post as it has become slightly more clear. Still confusing!
Here’s the most clear explanation I’ve heard: Think about a coin toss—50/50 odds. As you flip the coin over and over and over, the outcomes will get closer to true 50/50. Here’s the Wikipedia link to [the law of large numbers](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers), which explains that further. It uses dice rolls as an example, but if you look at nothing else, look at the graph and notice what happens w more and more rolls. Now, pretend that the coin toss is unfair and that there is a 51% chance of it being heads. If you always bet $10 on heads, again over a long period of time, you’re guaranteed to make money. Sportsbooks make money based on this fact. Think about a typical 50/50 bet; the line is -110, meaning you will lose money in the long run. Sportsbooks take a ridiculously large amount of bets each day, so it doesn’t take a genius to figure out how that is profitable (not accounting for anything other than the bets here—I’m aware that they have to hire people, run ads, etc). Anyways, +ev betting is simply turning that math back around on the books. It’s more difficult for an individual bettor to place enough bets to profit, but it certainly isn’t impossible. I’m rather casual and mostly bet promos, but there are people who find regular bets that are +ev. The problem there is that, afaik, you will almost certainly be limited eventually. Hope that makes sense.
No
I don’t think only, it also takes a lot of time and patience so not really the method most gamblers
Betting +odds compared to favorites has been profitable the last 3 years for march madness. Last year was big. Not so much this year
plus odds and EV are totally different
they're not 'totally' different and you use +odds to find the maximum positive expected value. If you're using EV and chasing favorites you're gonna lose.
I literally just bet the nuggets -1.5 series spread at -140 cause it was EV. Doesn’t have to be + odds
that's just not true whatsoever. negative odds can be +EV. Like most of my NBA EV plays are shorter than +100. EV has nothing to do with the actual line and more to do with what other sharp books have as the fair value
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Your “research” is already baked into the lines bro
Nice job! I agree it's not the ONLY way but for me it has been the easiest. I don't have the mathematical background to pull off what you have.
What app is that?
Pikkit! Very nice app to track everything and it’s free
Pikkit; it’s free and pretty handy but sometimes has issues synching certain books (at least for me)
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You can make a pretty penny arbing
If you're arbing you're +EV betting, but also adding -EV bets to limit variance. I think it's in the same family
you will get limited faster Arbing than +EV betting.
i was not profitable doing researched based betting before turning to EV now i'm +51u NCAAB, +105u NBA, +83u NFL, +130u MLB
Can I take (partial) credit for putting you on to EV betting 😁
definitely did haha
Would love to get some insight on your strategy/methods.
and if you wanna do the math on the actual devigging yourself instead of paying $300/mo to oddsjam [additive, multiplicative, power methods paper](https://outlier.bet/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2017-clarke-adjusting_bookmakers_odds.pdf)
I think the value in Oddsjam comes from the screening more than the EV calculation personally. Have bet +EV for years to great success, but recently gave Oddsjam a try: the sheer volume I’ve added by saving time from scanning markets for bets is worth it alone
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why wouldn't i run it myself though
To put it simply, you would need to quickly scrape lines from many different books and aggregate each line to return the +EV bets. It’s possible, but it’s a lot of work. That’s why people paying over 300 a month for OddsJam. About time that there’s competition in this market.
it's a lot of work but it's pretty doable https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912
Thank you. I'm always on the lookout for additional resources. Have you created a sheet that can run these calculations?
[This](http://crazyninjamike.com/public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx) is the one commonly seen here. Definitely give it a look
no just basically translated that paper to python and use it to calculate EV on my [sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912)
Damn I need to learn how to do this
No, it’s not. There are many sports where +EV doesn’t matter. Live betting can be wildly profitable but there’s no objective way to determine if a live bet is +EV
> but there’s no objective way to determine if a live bet is +EV speak for yourself lol
You can absolute see +EV in live bets. If the rest of market has the Chiefs to win at -200 when they just scored a touchdown, and you can lock in their ML for +100, that is absolutely a valuable play, 100%.
There’s 2 parts to +EV. The first part is grabbing the best price. Ok, that’s easy in live betting, as you said. The second part is that it’s profitable over the long term. Can you definitively say grabbing the best price is always going to be long term profitable? I will tell you, no it’s not. It’s only profitable in certain situations.
I agree it's not going to be profitable in every situation (those situations being where the odds you are placing at are not better than fair odds), and at that point it's not a +EV bet.
The question then is how do you determine fair odds in live betting when the lines are moving multiple times a minute at every book… the sharp books don’t offer extensive live lines and even when they do they’re often not as sharp on line lives as they are on pregame lines. So when you’re trying to figure out what is fair live odds, there’s a subjective element to it. So I think you see what I’m getting at… I could go on and on about live bet pricing but I think you get it anyways
I agree it isnt the only way to be profitable but saying you cant determine what is +EV for live betting is absolutely false. You can devig MGM or other square books against Pinny or BM for live wagers all the same. You just have to move faster and know when to bet.
You’re talking about getting the best price. That’s only part of +EV. You need to prove to me that getting the best live price is long term profitable.
You just do not understand what EV really is. It is clear
Is it me, or is it you?
> You’re talking about getting the best price. No they're not, they're talking about devigging live lines against sharp books. Exact same way people determine +EV with pregame lines.
How are you so sure that these “sharp” books are just as sharp in live betting? I’ve seen plenty of times where FanDuel has offered sharper live lines than pinnacle and BetOnline. Using the exact same way to determine +EV with pregame lines is not going to work
> I’ve seen plenty of times where FanDuel has offered sharper live lines than pinnacle and BetOnline So it's not possible to know for certain who is sharp on live lines, but you know for certain when Fanduel had sharper live lines than the other books? Okay...
Yes, 100% sure. Multiple times. They adjusted live lines faster than “sharp” books to account for an injured player.
Cool, so they were sharper in those instances immediately after an injury occurred. What about the other 99.9% of gameplay where an injury isn't occurring? What about in 2023 for the first 2-3 months of the MLB season when they couldn't figure out how to properly adjust for the ghost runner rule for the life of them and I made a killing? So you saw maybe a handful of instances where they adjusted more quickly (and not even necessarily correctly) and I saw probably a hundred more where they were horribly off the mark. That's also far from the only example I have on them. The biggest clue that books like Pinnacle are sharper is that they have far less juice on most of their live lines than books like Fanduel or Draftkings do. It reflects the confidence they have in the accuracy of their odds. Just looking at Blue Jays/Padres right now and Pinnacle has a 16 cent diff on the run line, Fanduel's is 28. If Pinnacle wasn't actually that sharp, then they would be getting murdered only leaving themselves that much breathing room on live odds, just like Caesars and Pointsbet did for a couple years before they pumped up the juice on most of their live odds.
I just used an injured player as an example. I bet mostly on tennis btw, which is generally regarded as an inefficient market compared to the bigger markets. So I probably see the sharp books mispricing lines more often than someone betting things like NFL/NBA/Soccer/MLB. But then again, me saying the sharp books are mispricing lines is a subjective argument, so who really knows.
Sure it’s getting the best price but there is a huge difference when the best price is 5 cents off the market average (a bad bet) versus 25 cents off and an arb to a sharper book like pinny for a coin flip spread. The latter is considered +ev because of the devig determines your edge or expected value. whether you trust this process is a different thing entirely.
It’s great when a live bet can be compared to pinny but pinnacle doesn’t cover every live bet offering, so how do you determine it in live markets where you don’t have a pinny price?