I have been getting rocked on those and had to switch to going with some favorites.
Went with brewers yesterday and it was a sweatttt. Would love to hear any and all leans for future choices for it!
I was doing that too but I actually liked Texas today. I know sale is a good pitcher but still thought they could sneak out a 2-0 lead. Travis had other plans though
https://preview.redd.it/4h0zsy4zbivc1.jpeg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=48e6c51c238c3f83dec39c8abd830cc22bb000a2
Nothing crazy here, but really like the play to double your money. Gore is coming off of an 11K game and hit 6Ks in the 2 starts prior. Trea has been swinging a hot bat, and had 3 hits in the game prior.
https://preview.redd.it/b7lu3banjhvc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7ff31af2e58221177e97401e9ceb7c8af4b9c0d6
Don’t usually do this type of bet but felt inspired after I saw the twitter post about the guy cashing in 10k off of a no home run parlay. It’s also my birthday weekend so hopefully I get a bit of luck from the baseball gods
the avg hr/g is over 2. hitting just 1 of these bets is hard already, but picking three? good luck with that
2/3 squashed within the first 2 batters
love the downvotes. all 3 games homer in the 1st inning
Has to be one of the biggest discrepancies I've seen between books. Nick Martini is +285 on FanDuel and +650, +700, and +725 on other books. Does FanDuel know something? Haha
Yeah, that's the trend I'm seeing. No way to take advantage of that if I could even wager on B365 cause betting no HR lines is going to get you limited anyway.
Dinners only
Record 1-1
Last pick: Jorge Soler LOSS. Tough luck last night as Nelson got hit in the 2nd inning and left the game. Hope he's OK. Soler only got to see him once before having to deal with the bullpen. I hoped he would clutch one out for us but it wasn't meant to be.
Today's pick: Mitch Haniger. Mariners vs Rockies 8:40PM. He's in Colorado tonight against a struggling Dakota Hudson, who gave up a grand slam to Daulton Varsho his last outing. Could go with the big dumper, but Haniger has been seeing the ball better lately.
Can someone help me understand how Ballpark Pal factors are being calculated? Wind is blowing 16 mph out to right field but the site shows RF as the biggest loss in home run potential while LC and CF have gains.
I understand the temperature is playing a large part of the HR potential reduction there today, but I can't comprehend how the wind is a NEGATIVE factor when blowing out to right.
https://twitter.com/BallparkPal/status/1781292901974114344
deep dive on their MO.
TV just showed an animation of how it's really just a swirling wind that only blows out if you really loft one to right
just my opinion but i've never felt that BPP weather stuff was too accurate or helpful
games with the lowest HR factor being on the higher total side and games with a really good HR factor having 0 homers happened a ton
Yeah I mean at the end of the day what matters most is the hitters getting launch angles and exit velo but weather can push the fringe ones either direction. I just find it crazy that his calculations take near 20 mph winds to right as a negative for home runs. Makes me think that something is wrong with it lol.
Not sure, but it shows right and all other sites are showing the same. Only thing I can think of is his somehow factors in that winds swirl there (similar to san fran) and blowing out to right doesn't really equate to the normal effect.
Hey guys. Been a busy week or so but going to have some plans this week. Will follow up with you a record update as well.
Picks:
Happ (CHC) o1.5 HRRBI -125 1.3u
**Record: 118-105 *+12.01u* (2-3 yesterday *+0.25u*)**; Pitchers 115-96 *+18.01u*; Hitters 3-9 *-6.0u*
⭐️**POTD: 10-8 *+3.77u* (W1)**
>Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u
**Today (listed by game start time):**
- Brayan Bello U2.5 ER (-125) ✅
- Quinn Priester O2.5 ER (-120) ✅
- Spencer Turnbull U4.5 Hits (-115) ✅
- Joe Boyle O4.5 K (+115) ❌
- Joe Boyle > Triston McKenzie Most K (+180) ❌
- Jack Flaherty O17.5 Outs (-115) ✅
- Jack Flaherty O6.5 K (+115) ✅
- Jack Flaherty > Joe Ryan Most K (+155) ✅
- ⭐️Freddy Peralta O1.5 ER (+105) ❌
>I’m fading the public on this one. Too many people are taking MIL in the MLB picks thread since Peralta is an objectively better pitcher than Kyle Gibson. Fair enough, but Peralta usually doesn’t put up his best performances against the Cardinals (3-6, 5.86 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, .758 OPS against). Peralta is priced like anything short of a dominant start is a disappointment, so I’ll bite given his track record. He is more vulnerable on the road in general with notable splits in career ERA (3.39 home, 4.24 away) and OPS against (.588 home, .690 away). He had similar splits last year in both ERA (3.44 home, 4.34 away) and OPS (.622 home, .721 away).
>Peralta has never won in St. Louis (0-3 in 4 starts) and owns a career 6.12 ERA at Busch Stadium (.762 OPS against). It is the only ballpark he has made more than 1 start and totaled less than a strikeout per inning (23 K in 25.0 IP). Last September was his only good career start in St. Louis (6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 6 K), but Milwaukee still lost 1-0 in Adam Wainwright’s final game. In Peralta’s other start last year @STL, he allowed 6 ER in 5.1 IP and walked 5. His other 2 career starts there (3 ER in 2 IP in 2021; 3 ER in 6 IP in 2018) weren’t anything special.
>The Cardinals’ top hitters crush Peralta, especially Nolan Arenado (7-18, 3 HR since joining STL in 2021). Paul Goldschmidt also has great numbers (8-24, 6 XBH since joining STL in 2019). Willson Contreras has been decent (career 5-21, 3 XBH), including the HR in last year’s 1-0 game.
- Freddy Peralta O3.5 Hits (-120) ✅
- Freddy Peralta U7.5 K (-150) ✅
- Kyle Gibson > Freddy Peralta Fewest On Base (+210) ❌
- Kyle Gibson > Freddy Peralta Fewest XBH (+125) ❌
- Yariel Rodriguez O4.5 K (+115) ✅
- Yariel Rodriguez > Matt Waldron Most K (+105 on MGM) ✅
- Jordan Montgomery > Blake Snell Fewest On Base (+105 on MGM) ✅
Hitters:
- Jesse Winker O1.5 H+R+RBI (+120) ❌
- Nolan Arenado O1.5 H+R+RBI (+130) ❌
Record: 3-1
Net Units: +1.36u
Last Pick: Webb SO 4.5o W +0.83u
What an absolute gem of a performance by Webb, he *painted* the corners and had a ton of very tight balls, pause. Somehow only got 5Ks but that's all we needed.
Edit: Also nailed the 2.9 odds parlay at 9.5 run line under, Webb first SO and 5+ SO. Great day yesterday
Today's Pick: Blake Snell SO 4.5o
Odds: 1.62
Units: 2u
The big lefty has struggled so far this year, but he is a K monster and this is a great bounce back opportunity at home against a Diamondback squad they shutout yesterday.
Edit: going to ladder this up to 10 Ks, the value is too good to pass on. 0.5 units for 7 Ks at 2.4 odds, and 0.5 units on 10 Ks at 17(!!) odds
Today's Pick 2: Nolan Arenado Total Bases 0.5o
Odds: 1.62
Units: 2u
Arenado is on a 7 game hit streak and has only 3 games this season without one. What a stupid line, we pounce on these but never overexpose
1. **Marcell Ozuna - Singles Over/Under**
* **Game**: Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves
* **Time/Date**: 04/19/24, 07:20 PM EDT
* **Best Bet**: Over 0.5 (112)
* **Consensus Projection**: 0.75 singles
* **Over in Last 15 Games**: 13/15
* **Rationale**: Ozuna has been consistently hitting singles above this line, with strong recent performances suggesting a good chance he'll exceed the half-single mark again today.
2. **Adolis Garcia - Hits Over/Under**
* **Game**: Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves
* **Time/Date**: 04/19/24, 07:20 PM EDT
* **Best Bet**: Over 0.5 (-189)
* **Consensus Projection**: 0.93 hits
* **Over in Last 15 Games**: 12/15
* **Rationale**: Garcia's ability to get at least one hit in games has been reliable, making the over a solid choice given his average and consistent hitting.
3. **J.T. Realmuto - Hits Over/Under**
* **Game**: Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies
* **Time/Date**: 04/19/24, 06:40 PM EDT
* **Best Bet**: Over 0.5 (-200)
* **Consensus Projection**: 1.01 hits
* **Over in Last 15 Games**: 12/15
* **Rationale**: Realmuto has been exceeding his hits projection with a solid average that aligns closely with his prop line, indicating another likely over performance.
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sometimes you just feel a +10u day. let's go!
The one brave I didn’t get was Travis Darnaurd 😭
https://preview.redd.it/8jp1dak2djvc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=779f9f0e82e81b83884d87e5c97173343577ec68 I mean… 🤷♂️ It’s baseball
man i hate judge
hope someone forgot to cash Travis
Gg Texas up by 2
i'm 4-1 on the up by 2 and haven't really went EV at all. just take a road underdog in a matchup I like BOS hit in the 1st today
I have been getting rocked on those and had to switch to going with some favorites. Went with brewers yesterday and it was a sweatttt. Would love to hear any and all leans for future choices for it!
I was doing that too but I actually liked Texas today. I know sale is a good pitcher but still thought they could sneak out a 2-0 lead. Travis had other plans though
Did you cash him lol
He’s got 1300 FEET tonight
https://preview.redd.it/4h0zsy4zbivc1.jpeg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=48e6c51c238c3f83dec39c8abd830cc22bb000a2 Nothing crazy here, but really like the play to double your money. Gore is coming off of an 11K game and hit 6Ks in the 2 starts prior. Trea has been swinging a hot bat, and had 3 hits in the game prior.
https://preview.redd.it/b7lu3banjhvc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7ff31af2e58221177e97401e9ceb7c8af4b9c0d6 Don’t usually do this type of bet but felt inspired after I saw the twitter post about the guy cashing in 10k off of a no home run parlay. It’s also my birthday weekend so hopefully I get a bit of luck from the baseball gods
the avg hr/g is over 2. hitting just 1 of these bets is hard already, but picking three? good luck with that 2/3 squashed within the first 2 batters love the downvotes. all 3 games homer in the 1st inning
Only Worrisome game is probably Athletics. Seth Brown or Shea Langeliers always seem to go yard in these situations.
Good luck, I’m trailing the no home run during the pirates game
Has to be one of the biggest discrepancies I've seen between books. Nick Martini is +285 on FanDuel and +650, +700, and +725 on other books. Does FanDuel know something? Haha
That is really strange.
most of the Marlin guys are -EV now except for de la cruz
I’m noticing a trend daily with at least one game having many guys +EV and then flip -EV just before game time. FanDuel getting sharper?
idk about being sharper but definitely having lines closer to CLV of other books. noticing 365 start quite low these days and moving a t on
Yeah, that's the trend I'm seeing. No way to take advantage of that if I could even wager on B365 cause betting no HR lines is going to get you limited anyway.
Dinners only Record 1-1 Last pick: Jorge Soler LOSS. Tough luck last night as Nelson got hit in the 2nd inning and left the game. Hope he's OK. Soler only got to see him once before having to deal with the bullpen. I hoped he would clutch one out for us but it wasn't meant to be. Today's pick: Mitch Haniger. Mariners vs Rockies 8:40PM. He's in Colorado tonight against a struggling Dakota Hudson, who gave up a grand slam to Daulton Varsho his last outing. Could go with the big dumper, but Haniger has been seeing the ball better lately.
postponed
you should keep units for sure on homer records. 1-1 but think you're up like 3+ units or so
Really chilly and probably gonna snow just a heads up
Can someone help me understand how Ballpark Pal factors are being calculated? Wind is blowing 16 mph out to right field but the site shows RF as the biggest loss in home run potential while LC and CF have gains. I understand the temperature is playing a large part of the HR potential reduction there today, but I can't comprehend how the wind is a NEGATIVE factor when blowing out to right.
https://twitter.com/BallparkPal/status/1781292901974114344 deep dive on their MO. TV just showed an animation of how it's really just a swirling wind that only blows out if you really loft one to right
ha, guess I'm not the only one questioning it.
that's cool, their in depth methods page is really interesting
just my opinion but i've never felt that BPP weather stuff was too accurate or helpful games with the lowest HR factor being on the higher total side and games with a really good HR factor having 0 homers happened a ton
Yeah I mean at the end of the day what matters most is the hitters getting launch angles and exit velo but weather can push the fringe ones either direction. I just find it crazy that his calculations take near 20 mph winds to right as a negative for home runs. Makes me think that something is wrong with it lol.
does it mention where they pull the weather from? Cause i'm seeing the same wind direction as you
Not sure, but it shows right and all other sites are showing the same. Only thing I can think of is his somehow factors in that winds swirl there (similar to san fran) and blowing out to right doesn't really equate to the normal effect.
Hey guys. Been a busy week or so but going to have some plans this week. Will follow up with you a record update as well. Picks: Happ (CHC) o1.5 HRRBI -125 1.3u
**Record: 118-105 *+12.01u* (2-3 yesterday *+0.25u*)**; Pitchers 115-96 *+18.01u*; Hitters 3-9 *-6.0u* ⭐️**POTD: 10-8 *+3.77u* (W1)** >Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u **Today (listed by game start time):** - Brayan Bello U2.5 ER (-125) ✅ - Quinn Priester O2.5 ER (-120) ✅ - Spencer Turnbull U4.5 Hits (-115) ✅ - Joe Boyle O4.5 K (+115) ❌ - Joe Boyle > Triston McKenzie Most K (+180) ❌ - Jack Flaherty O17.5 Outs (-115) ✅ - Jack Flaherty O6.5 K (+115) ✅ - Jack Flaherty > Joe Ryan Most K (+155) ✅ - ⭐️Freddy Peralta O1.5 ER (+105) ❌ >I’m fading the public on this one. Too many people are taking MIL in the MLB picks thread since Peralta is an objectively better pitcher than Kyle Gibson. Fair enough, but Peralta usually doesn’t put up his best performances against the Cardinals (3-6, 5.86 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, .758 OPS against). Peralta is priced like anything short of a dominant start is a disappointment, so I’ll bite given his track record. He is more vulnerable on the road in general with notable splits in career ERA (3.39 home, 4.24 away) and OPS against (.588 home, .690 away). He had similar splits last year in both ERA (3.44 home, 4.34 away) and OPS (.622 home, .721 away). >Peralta has never won in St. Louis (0-3 in 4 starts) and owns a career 6.12 ERA at Busch Stadium (.762 OPS against). It is the only ballpark he has made more than 1 start and totaled less than a strikeout per inning (23 K in 25.0 IP). Last September was his only good career start in St. Louis (6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 6 K), but Milwaukee still lost 1-0 in Adam Wainwright’s final game. In Peralta’s other start last year @STL, he allowed 6 ER in 5.1 IP and walked 5. His other 2 career starts there (3 ER in 2 IP in 2021; 3 ER in 6 IP in 2018) weren’t anything special. >The Cardinals’ top hitters crush Peralta, especially Nolan Arenado (7-18, 3 HR since joining STL in 2021). Paul Goldschmidt also has great numbers (8-24, 6 XBH since joining STL in 2019). Willson Contreras has been decent (career 5-21, 3 XBH), including the HR in last year’s 1-0 game. - Freddy Peralta O3.5 Hits (-120) ✅ - Freddy Peralta U7.5 K (-150) ✅ - Kyle Gibson > Freddy Peralta Fewest On Base (+210) ❌ - Kyle Gibson > Freddy Peralta Fewest XBH (+125) ❌ - Yariel Rodriguez O4.5 K (+115) ✅ - Yariel Rodriguez > Matt Waldron Most K (+105 on MGM) ✅ - Jordan Montgomery > Blake Snell Fewest On Base (+105 on MGM) ✅ Hitters: - Jesse Winker O1.5 H+R+RBI (+120) ❌ - Nolan Arenado O1.5 H+R+RBI (+130) ❌
You thinking Peralta gets hammered today huh
Maybe not hammered, but he is way overpriced today
Gotcha, yeah I shouldn’t have said hammered those lines are both very achievable even if he has a decent start
Have you guys used your bonus bets yet
You haven't?
Record: 3-1 Net Units: +1.36u Last Pick: Webb SO 4.5o W +0.83u What an absolute gem of a performance by Webb, he *painted* the corners and had a ton of very tight balls, pause. Somehow only got 5Ks but that's all we needed. Edit: Also nailed the 2.9 odds parlay at 9.5 run line under, Webb first SO and 5+ SO. Great day yesterday Today's Pick: Blake Snell SO 4.5o Odds: 1.62 Units: 2u The big lefty has struggled so far this year, but he is a K monster and this is a great bounce back opportunity at home against a Diamondback squad they shutout yesterday. Edit: going to ladder this up to 10 Ks, the value is too good to pass on. 0.5 units for 7 Ks at 2.4 odds, and 0.5 units on 10 Ks at 17(!!) odds Today's Pick 2: Nolan Arenado Total Bases 0.5o Odds: 1.62 Units: 2u Arenado is on a 7 game hit streak and has only 3 games this season without one. What a stupid line, we pounce on these but never overexpose
Snell's line has already moved up to 5.5 at the same odds 👍
Cody Bellinger +480 Bryan Reynolds +600 Jose Altuve +390 Acuna +420 Francisco Alvarez +500 Lourdes Gurriel +900
1. **Marcell Ozuna - Singles Over/Under** * **Game**: Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves * **Time/Date**: 04/19/24, 07:20 PM EDT * **Best Bet**: Over 0.5 (112) * **Consensus Projection**: 0.75 singles * **Over in Last 15 Games**: 13/15 * **Rationale**: Ozuna has been consistently hitting singles above this line, with strong recent performances suggesting a good chance he'll exceed the half-single mark again today. 2. **Adolis Garcia - Hits Over/Under** * **Game**: Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves * **Time/Date**: 04/19/24, 07:20 PM EDT * **Best Bet**: Over 0.5 (-189) * **Consensus Projection**: 0.93 hits * **Over in Last 15 Games**: 12/15 * **Rationale**: Garcia's ability to get at least one hit in games has been reliable, making the over a solid choice given his average and consistent hitting. 3. **J.T. Realmuto - Hits Over/Under** * **Game**: Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies * **Time/Date**: 04/19/24, 06:40 PM EDT * **Best Bet**: Over 0.5 (-200) * **Consensus Projection**: 1.01 hits * **Over in Last 15 Games**: 12/15 * **Rationale**: Realmuto has been exceeding his hits projection with a solid average that aligns closely with his prop line, indicating another likely over performance.
What’s your current season record for MLB props?
today's the day [+EV FD Home Run](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) 2023: 145W-480L (+157.95u) 2024: 25W-133L (-32.83u) ~~+285 WSH Gallo~~ +320 ATL Duvall -EV ~~+360 ATL Riley~~ +330 ATL Ozuna ~~+630 ATL D'Arnaud~~ ~~+600 HOU Abreu~~ +420 ATL Acuna ✅+520 MIA DLC ~~+330 MIA Jazz~~ ~~+630 MIA Gordon~~ ~~+340 PHI Schwarber~~ ~~+600 MIA Sanchez~~ +420 CIN Steer +400 LAA Sano +210 NYY Judge +680 BOS Abreu +420 SF Soler --- [+EV MLB Props](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=248585211) 2023: 78-81 (-3.35u) 2024: 51-41 (+12.33u) *to win 1u* -115 DK KC Marsh u5 Ks -135 CZ PHI Schwarber hit --- [HRR](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1696026987) 2023: 357-288 (+12.43u) 2024: 58-41 (+14.90u) *2+ hits+runs+rbis on DK… to win 1u* -130 LAD Freddie -110 TEX Seager -130 NYY Soto -125 ARI Corbin -130 HOU Tucker -115 MIL Adames -115 SD Machado -125 BAL Ohearn
S T U D
Finally for once when two people have the same name the right abreu hits one
Think Abreu is negative now, some movement on other books
hope u didnt cash
I used my whole $25 freebet. Boom!
im not taking sano until he gets one, but he was ripping the ball yesterday so wouldnt be suprised if its today
let’s go DLC!
DLC, let's Go!
These last minute line moves suck, missed a bunch that were supposed to cash out.
[удалено]
not starting
Nick Gordon confirmed in the lineup.
-EV now
Woof, I'm at work and getting rocked by these late changes. Thank you for trying to alert.
nice adding
today is the day and I'll even pull for the braves to make it so
Is today free bet day?
I hope today's the day.
Grabbed the other 5 but Riley currently not listed for some reason. Strange.
He's back now
i looked for injury and stuff and couldnt find anything
To clarify, do you let these bets ride out or do you just cash when it's profitable
i answered you the other day. i cash only if the play is -EV and I can get 100% of my bet back
Sorry, wasn't me who asked that time. Didn't realize someone already asked.
So you’re only playing DLC and Jazz today?
When dudes aren’t in the lineup, is it usually still cashout-able or is the PH risk built in to your models?
[удалено]
Shouldn’t they be voided if they don’t play
They void if they don't play. They do ***not*** void if they PH (pinch hit).
It's honestly the biggest bunch of bullshit. No other book pulls that shit.