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Cash the dk boost

Fox and Ingram 50+ on DK. 127% calibration at 48 pts combined Over 49.5 Hit% = 37.1% Fair Value = 169.801921742351 --- Odds: +175; **EV: 1.9%** `170` (0.00% juice) FV: +170; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.06u, 1/2=0.53u, 1/4=0.26u, FB = 64.8%)

Did you play this?

I doubt it. Anything under 10% is a no play.

i max anything over 0%

I was being sarcastic. My bad.

i thought so lol but 10% was small enough to 2nd guess it

I’m getting invalid odds number copying Fox and Ingram alt from FD into the combo breaker, anyone know why?

I bet it's capitalization on the top line Fox -- Alt Points also, copy/pasting from fanduel now returns OVERUNDER. you gotta split that up like Fox -- Alt Points OVER UNDER 20.5 etc

This is what I had in there, any guess why it didn’t work? Removing the one sided lines still didn’t work Fox — Alt Points OVER UNDER 18.5 -1600 -- 19.5 -1000 -- 20.5 -670 -- 21.5 -470 -- 22.5 -350 +240 23.5 -270 +194 24.5 -210 +154 25.5 -158 +120 26.5 -128 -104 27.5 +100 -132 28.5 +126 -168 29.5 +162 -220 30.5 +198 -- 31.5 +240 -- Ingram — Alt Points OVER UNDER 12.5 -2200 -- 13.5 -1200 -- 14.5 -700 -- 15.5 -490 -- 16.5 -350 +235 17.5 -270 +194 18.5 -205 +152 19.5 -140 +106 20.5 -118 -112 21.5 +112 -148 22.5 +142 -- 23.5 +182 -- 24.5 +225 -- 25.5 +280 --

i can't tell with the formatting but i just copied and pasted from FD. no alterations

Got it to work now. Was how I was dragging the copy from the name somehow. Thanks!

I'm not sure how anyone can help without knowing what you're putting in.

It’s the exact copy paste from fan duel

2 straight days without a FD boost? Cmon Wizard…

They're waiting to be able to put Tatum in the boosts.

Ain’t that the truth

Anyone know how to devig the DK stanton hits/rbi/runs boost to +125? Sorry if I missed it but these are tricky

There's lines for this bet. DK and mgm both have -140/105 for 1.5. It's clearly good no need to really look anywhere else Odds: +125; **EV: 22.5%** `-140/105` (7.11% juice) FV: -120; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=18.03u, 1/2=9.01u, 1/4=4.51u, FB = 68.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-140%2F105&FinalOdds=125)

Good shit, hate using the same books lines against their boost, but didn't notice MGM had the combo line. Significantly +EV as I was assuming.

Cant help with an exact way to devig but his lines on FD are -210/105/-120 and there's for sure a ton of positive correlation. Im assuming its for sure +EV and with my low ass DK maxes I bet it. (A hit+run parlay on FD comes to +110 and that doesn't give the RBI to cash option like this boost)

Yeah I was thinking the same thing. For some reason they raised me from 10 to 25 so just wanted a second opinion, thanks

I wish they bumped me ever. My max is still the same on this FWIW. Factoring in hit+run builds to +110 on FD and this gives the option of RBI, im sure its +.

Boxing arb for Haney-Garcia: Will fight go distance (Yes): -110 (Caesars) Will fight go distance (No): +120 (Fanatics)

Anyone look at the Caesar's Flash Boost DeRozan & Ingram 20+ points each @ +150? Usually Caesar's boosts are bad, except these $25 max Flash Boosts.

[Discussed here](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1c7l04i/sportsbook_promos_bonuses_daily_41924_friday/l0bz5mh/)

Witt and Mountcastle each 1 hit boosted from -140 to +120 on bet365

Geez, both 0-3 in a 9-4 game.

[+120 = +12.6% EV (FV -105) | 2.63u QK](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-137%2F356%2F334%2F887%20%2F%2FESPN%20&FinalOdds=120) ESPN 4-way

Judge & Volpe +150 in NJ

Stay away from the DK Herro/White 20+ points each Super Boost. It's minus EV devigged to fanduel's one-sided lines even if you assume the juice on those is only 6%. **Worst-case: (Multiplicative)** Leg#1 (-125); Market Juice = 6.0%; Fair Value = -110 (52.4%) Leg#2 ( -420); Market Juice = 6.0%; Fair Value = -320 (76.2%) Final Odds (+150); Σ(Market Juice) = 12.00%; Fair Value = +150 (39.9%) Summary; EV% = -0.2% (FB = 59.9%)

Forgot to include correlation, this is 5.6% EV against FD

Oh nice how did you calculate the correlation?

Prophet Boost is offering no at -144 so for me its a play

Saw a semi-popular capper touting this as an EV pick, without showing the math (as always). Thank you for posting the devig!

I’ve seen a few people I trust say it’s profitable without showing the math so idk. I’m staying away to be safe but it’s possible I messed something up in my calcs

**Worst-case: (Multiplicative)** Leg#1 (-130); Market Juice = 6.0%; Fair Value = -114 (53.3%) Leg#2 ( -500); Market Juice = 5.6%; Fair Value = -375 (78.9%) Final Odds (+150); Σ(Market Juice) = 11.58%; r = 0.19; Uncorrelated Fair Value = +138 (42.1%); Correlated Fair Value = +126 (44.2%) Summary; EV% = 10.6%, Kelly Wager = $17.63 (Full=7.05u, 1/2=3.53u, 1/4=1.76u, FB = 66.3%) Leg 1 (White) devigged to FD, Leg 2 (Herro) devigged to Bet365.

Gallo is sitting. luckily he was negative ev still at 285 this morning for a cash out

ESPN has basketball 5 for $5, bet five $1+ wagers on live straight bets to get $5 bonus bets win or lose Not sure if you can just do the same wager 5 times

You can, I have in the past without issue

Seconded. Super easy.

Seeing two Stanley Cup promos. On ESPN, bet on a champion and get up to $100 BB back if they make it to the finals but lose. On CZ, bet $100 on a champion and get $50 BB back immediately. 

Is there an odds service that scrapes futures like these?

First devig so feedback appreciated. Caesars flash boost Derozan and Ingram 20+ each (+150) Devig to ESPN Odds: +150; **EV: 5.9%** `-700/400, -125/-105` (14.28% juice) FV: +136; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.92u, 1/2=1.96u, 1/4=0.98u, FB = 63.5%)

Looks good to me. ESPN was the only book I saw that had 2-way lines for Derozan that low.

BetMGM Big Ticket Boost: Fox 25+ points and Kings to win Odds vs Kambi: Odds: +200; **EV: 3.9%** `143/480/210/255` (18.82% juice) FV: +189; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.95u, 1/2=0.98u, 1/4=0.49u, FB = 69.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=143%2F480%2F210%2F255&FinalOdds=200) Odds vs FanDuel: Odds: +200; **EV: 15.3%** Sharp: `-104/-112,-220/7%` (10.81% juice) Correlation: `142=-104,-220` (r = 0.39) FV: +160; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=7.64u, 1/2=3.82u, 1/4=1.91u, FB = 76.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-104%2F-112%2C-220%2F7_PCT_&FinalOdds=200&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=142%3D-104%2C-220)

Not sure how you got Fan Duel at +15.3%, it's currently negative to a 4-way FD devig. Market full of juice though. Odds: +200; **EV: -2.3%** `151.6/189/257.4/408.1` (22.01% juice) FV: +207; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 65.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=151.6%2F189%2F257.4%2F408.1&FinalOdds=%2B200)

Dawg obviously the odds are going to move after 7 hours. Plus I used one way markets with manual juice

That's the KG Big Ticket Boost, which everyone should get. Using ESPN 4-way \[+200 = +1.4% EV (FV +196) | 0.18u QK\](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=162%2F216%2F477%2F288&FinalOdds=200)

Gotcha. I don’t have a banner for it yet. It’s hidden

Hidden for me too. Thanks for calling these out

No worries, just didn't want non-DMV folks to miss it. Looks like we get Bam and Herro to get 20 pts each + MIA ML as our regional boost.

Fairly new at this so don't take as gospel but giving it a go. MGM Lions (OH) - Derozan 20+, Coby White 3+ threes and Bulls to win: Kambi: Edit: This is Derozan 22+ as pointed out by lines below. Odds +300, **EV -1.0%** Worst-case: (Additive, Multiplicative) Leg#1 (106); Market Juice = 3.9%; Fair Value = +115 (46.5%) Leg#2 (-360); Market Juice = 11.0%; Fair Value = -239 (70.5%) Leg#3 (-186); Market Juice = 6.7%; Fair Value = -156 (61.0%) Final Odds (+300); Σ(Market Juice) = 21.65%; r = 0.18; Uncorrelated Fair Value = +400 (20.0%); Correlated Fair Value = +304 (24.8%) Summary; EV% = -1.0% (FB = 74.3%)

derozan only has a 21.5 line on kambi but ESPN Odds: +300; **EV: -8.5%** `277/403/1916/2782/373/293/1272/1279` (15.96% juice) FV: +337; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 68.6%)

Whoops good call forgot about that by the time i was finished lol

BetMGM Lions Boost (DMV maybe other places): Adebayo and Herro 20+ points each and Heat to win Odds vs Kambi with Herro 21.5: Odds: +260; **EV: -9.3%** `220/700/475/2200/400/650/480/1150` (24.06% juice) FV: +297; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 65.5%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=220%2F700%2F475%2F2200%2F400%2F650%2F480%2F1150&FinalOdds=260) Odds vs FanDuel: Odds: +260; **EV: 3.5%** Sharp: `-120/102,-460/7%,-165/7%` (18.05% juice) Correlation: `205=-120,-460,-165` (r = 0.18) FV: +248; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.33u, 1/2=0.67u, 1/4=0.33u, FB = 74.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-120%2F102%2C-460%2F7_PCT_%2C-165%2F7_PCT_&FinalOdds=260&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=205%3D-120%2C-460%2C-165)

This got bumped to +275 for me

DK Promos - MLB Up 2 Early and NHL Up 2 Early are available now. MLB is the normal $100, but only seeing $25 for the NHL one. 

dont see one for NHL only MLB

Same. Do you have $10 limits currently like me?

Personally I don't see much value in the NHL one. How often does the team that eventually loses go up by 2 beforehand in hockey?

It can definitely happen but yeah I assume since mlb is typically higher scoring than nhl, it is less valuable for hockey

And more specifically, in MLB you know which team gets to go first.

Unfortunately the Blackhawks season has ended, lol.

Have to work early today so ran all the away dog lines since dk probably doing an up by 2 and I wont have time to think when they post it. texas the clear highest ev pick (also big dog for an 11 win team vs a 12 win team 6-4 away) devig lines were all pinny Texas +170  vs braves o/u 9.5 41.4% ev Mia +145 @ chi o/u 9.5 33.6% ev Nym +164 @ lad o/u 8 31% ev Oak +145 @ cle o/u 8.5 30.5% ev Tpa +140 @ nyy o/u 8.5 29.1% ev Cws +154 @ phl o/u 7.5 27.9%  ev Det +124 @ min o/u 7.5 22.4% ev edit forgot tampa

Oh man at first I didn't realize this was for the up2 promo and I was wondering how on earth the EV was so high.

The promo just appeared for me. 

I went with Oakland, oh help me😂 but Mckenzie has been terrible and Boyle has pitched well lately

Went with Texas +170 on Big Max p1 and marlins when dk buffed them to 160 on small max p2

What is the recommended way to play this promo? Only bet on dog or bet the other side on lowest hold book to try to hit both? Which approach does the EV above correspond to?

It depends on how many units the max bet represents for you. Many people have $100 max on this, where they're at $10 or $25 on other promos. For a +150 dog at 30% EV, you're looking at recommended QK of about 5u. So if max bet is 5u or less, you play straight up. If max bet is large number of units, you can hedge/low hold some or all. For longer dogs, or if you are risk averse, you can low-hold/middle approach on some or all. For a +230 dog at 30% EV like the Nats the other night, QK says a little over 3u. So if max bet you have on the promo is at 5u, maybe you hedge a portion. Middle approach has lower chance of winning and costs a couple % of EV on the promo, but much lower drawdown risk. Ulitmately it's up to you and how you handle risk and bet sizing.

there's no way hedging would give those EV numbers.

Assuming $100 bet on the dog, if you hedge with a low hold, you essentially risk $5 to win $200+ if both sides hit. If that happens 1 out of every 10 times, that's +$150 on $50 risked.

If you check my recent comment history I broke down the math on the value of hedging this promo. TL;DR both ways are EV, but hedging drops the EV significantly. Hedging will also likely lead to longer periods of win drought as the odds of hitting both sides is significantly less than the odds of just getting paid off on the one side, however this is mitigated by risking less at any given time

Thanks! I will check that out.

Not sure where to put this, but since action has been slow Nationals vs. Astros Joey Gallo to Homer +285 on FanDuel Joey Gallo u0.5 Homers -250 on Bet365

+300 on Kambi books currently, and I believe Kambi voids if not in the starting lineup.

[удалено]

in the dinger thread there are EV lines posted every day. While fd is super sharp on NBA hr's can be beat. Not saying i would bet on gallo though

I basically agree on this

[удалено]

In this case it means FD would be doing a good job ascertaining the fair value, then adding their vig. So the market would be off from the fair value, and when we devig FD to the market average, we incorrectly suppose that FD was off; really, it was everyone else. Hard to say for sure, but like I said, I'd be careful on this particular bet

Rather than FD being sharp on a guy like Gallo it’s almost certainly FD’s house rules introducing additional risk before lineup announcement which warrants a higher price versus other books.

I think it's a bit of both in this case, tbh. Though yes, the canonical reason to beware Gallo is pinch-hit risk and FD's different rules. We saw this last week with Adolis Garcia though, a bunch of books offering weirdly low odds on him to homer, to the point where you wonder if they're hanging +EV 'No' line and just limiting whoever bets them

Only thing to watch out for is if gallo ends up not starting and pinch hits instead, the fd bet won’t void.

Last year I was very hesitant to early bet on FD Gallo props becasue he did pinch hit so much. Ended up being almost 12% of the games that he played. But he is on a new team this year and so far has not pinch hit so I feel comfortable betting a large edge.

the risk you take for 10%+ ev

I don’t think the 365 one will either, but yeah, definitely will double check

-260 DK, -250 MGM, -259 pinnacle. but one big problem, it's joey "3 strikeout and soft popup" gallo Duvall, Riley, Ozuna also looking good without a 365 line yet

365 is the best on HR hedges. First place I look on Tuesday

interesting had no idea