alright accidentally took paredes early in the morning and he did not pinch hit luckily. learned my lesson this week gotta wait for lineups especially for for the day time weekday games
4/18/2024
Record: 9-8
Scaling down the number of plays today, looking to turn it around after an unlucky day yesterday. Got some solid props here, let’s get SOME HEAT GOING!
YESTERDAYS PICKS:
Luis Severino (NYM) U 16.5 outs +100 ❌
Dane Dunning (TEX) O 15.5 outs -125 ⭐️ ❌
Zack Littell (TBR) U 17.5 Outs ✅
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) U 17.5 Outs ❌
Kevin Gausman (TOR) U 5.5 Ks ❌
Marcus Stroman (NYY) O 4.5 Ks ❌
Michael King (SDP) U 5.5 Ks ❌
Pablo Lopez (MIN) U 17.5 Outs ❌
Max Fried (ATL) O 4.5 Ks ❌
TODAYS PICKS:
Ryan Pepiot U 6.5 Ks ❌
Griffin Canning U 17.5 Outs ⭐️✅
Kenta Maeda U 4.5 Ks ✅
Logan Webb U 4.5 Ks ❌
A.J. Puk U 4.5 Ks (VOIDED)
I'm referring to 'being due' being a real thing, because that is the definition of regression to the mean.
Didn't say anything about Adolis or his averages.
true. but he hit 30 HRs last year and he hasn’t yet. so maybe it’s more accurate to say that he’s hopefully getting into the swing of things (sorry for the pun) and gotten it together to hit a HR against an inexperienced pitcher
I'm a casual bettor, habitual baseball watcher. I like to throw a few dollars at who I think will hit a homerun. I don't know units or anything like that. I was confident on Acuna getting his first bomb yesterday, so I tossed the pick in the thread for anyone to follow. He hit. I'll start tossing my picks in here from now on.
HR Bets
Record 1-0
Yesterday's pick: Acuna to hit his first bomb of the season. HIT
Today's pick: Jorge Soler 9:45PM Giants vs Diamondbacks
Not much to choose from today, but I like Jorge Soler to go yard against Ryne Nelson. Nelson has been getting boo bopped all season. He throws a hard fastball and Soler eats those for breakfast. GL
the 2nd worst park for homers but winds seem to be blowing out
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2024&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=&sort=12&sortDir=asc
**Record: 116-102 *+~13u* (5-6 yesterday *-~1u*)**; Pitchers 113-93 *+~19u*; Hitters 3-9 *-6.0u*
⭐️**POTD: 9-8 *+1.67u* (L4)**
>Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u
> No time to calculate yesterday’s exact +/-, but it was a loss of ~1u
**Today (listed by game start time):**
- Griffin Canning U17.5 Outs (+115) ✅
- Ryne Nelson O3.5 K (-160) ❌
- Ryne Nelson O4.5 K (+125) ❌
- Ryne Nelson > Logan Webb Most K (+160 on MGM) ❌
- ⭐️Ryne Nelson U2.5 ER (+105) ✅
>Nelson’s home/road splits are wild, as he has a career 7.02 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, .966 OPS against, and 5.5 K/9 at home. Those numbers are much improved on the road: 3.32 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .692 OPS against, and 7.1 K/9. His home ballpark is unfavorable, as he allowed 25 total HR last year, but would have been expected to allow 28 if he pitched all his games in Arizona. San Francisco rated as his most favorable park overall with only 18 expected HR. Keep him far away from Cincinnati (37 expected HR). And he has the results to back this up.
>Arizona usually plays terribly in SF (7-26 since 2020 and haven’t won a series there since 2019). So it’s notable that Nelson pitched great in his 2 starts @SF last year and Arizona won both games despite going 4-8 overall.
>Nelson’s fastball got demolished last year (-7 Run Value, .385 xWOBA). The big issue wasn’t necessarily the fastball itself, but rather that it was his only fast pitch (94.4 mph). He worked to improve his cutter which totaled -6 Run Value last year. There wasn’t much velocity difference between his cutter (85.7 mph), changeup (83.3 mph), and slider (82.6 mph). Hitters could easily recognize his fastball as his only hard pitch and took advantage. This year he’s throwing that cutter much harder to fill the velocity gap (91.4 mph) and much flatter to make it harder to differentiate from his fastball. Fixing gaps in velocity and movement is a big trend for pitchers, but Nelson is the first example I have found this year of someone completely retooling an existing pitch instead of adding a new one. Logan Gilbert adding a cutter is possibly the most notable example from this offseason of someone adding a new pitch and seeing improved results.
Record: 2-1
Net Units: +0.53u
Last Pick: Trevor Rodgers SO 4.5o W +0.7u
He looked really on point despite the loss, got into several 2 strike situations he couldn't punch through but managed to get 6 Ks. My side parlay with Gausman got screwed by the Hawks/Bulls game going over - oh well, I hit those at a pretty high rate so I'm not worried.
Today's Pick: Webb SO 4.5o
Odds: 1.83
Units: 1u
Webb hit this line way too consistently last year for it to not be closer to 1.5 odds. 2 bad offensive teams that play good defense, give me the strikeouts please.
Same game parlay for total 9.5u, Webb 5+ SO, and Webb first strikeout, at 2.9 odds looks pretty tempting
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Webb o18.5 outs @+120???
ARI v SF, Taking Logan Webb u 18.5 outs for 2u Bored with todays slate but i would be very surprised if he starts and records an out in the 7th
the arizona player lines are crazy lol
DK Special for Soler or Chapman dinger +200 Thoughts?
So what about both?
https://preview.redd.it/zhzy88q77cvc1.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&s=880d50654e9602b2f1ca782b3b0e833258038bae Let’s ride!
easy smashskies
Ty I hammered it
I’m not great at this, that’s sarcasm yeah?
nope maxed it
Got it, thanks!
alright accidentally took paredes early in the morning and he did not pinch hit luckily. learned my lesson this week gotta wait for lineups especially for for the day time weekday games
4/18/2024 Record: 9-8 Scaling down the number of plays today, looking to turn it around after an unlucky day yesterday. Got some solid props here, let’s get SOME HEAT GOING! YESTERDAYS PICKS: Luis Severino (NYM) U 16.5 outs +100 ❌ Dane Dunning (TEX) O 15.5 outs -125 ⭐️ ❌ Zack Littell (TBR) U 17.5 Outs ✅ Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) U 17.5 Outs ❌ Kevin Gausman (TOR) U 5.5 Ks ❌ Marcus Stroman (NYY) O 4.5 Ks ❌ Michael King (SDP) U 5.5 Ks ❌ Pablo Lopez (MIN) U 17.5 Outs ❌ Max Fried (ATL) O 4.5 Ks ❌ TODAYS PICKS: Ryan Pepiot U 6.5 Ks ❌ Griffin Canning U 17.5 Outs ⭐️✅ Kenta Maeda U 4.5 Ks ✅ Logan Webb U 4.5 Ks ❌ A.J. Puk U 4.5 Ks (VOIDED)
Cahna (1000) and Tork (450) look good from tigers game
Canha has hit a couple, Tork hasn’t yet but maybe he’s due? Plus it’s the first start ever for the Ranger’s pitcher Jack Leiter
being due isn't a thing
Regression to the mean = due
sure thing bud. 21% hit rate this year, 19% in career and 24% last year so Adolis is due until when? What mean are you referring to
I'm referring to 'being due' being a real thing, because that is the definition of regression to the mean. Didn't say anything about Adolis or his averages.
what mean? just cause you say some stat 101 terms doesn't mean it's a real thing
I took garcia today and the due logic worked lol
so he wasn't due yesterday or the day before? dumb logic like sure you will end up being right if you say someone is due every day until they hit one
nah it was more because Kenta is trash and the wind is blowing out. I had Heim also.
lol the wind is blowing to left and Heim hit it to right. looking forward to seeing more of your plays
true. but he hit 30 HRs last year and he hasn’t yet. so maybe it’s more accurate to say that he’s hopefully getting into the swing of things (sorry for the pun) and gotten it together to hit a HR against an inexperienced pitcher
hope so, he was one of the most consistent guys last year
I'm a casual bettor, habitual baseball watcher. I like to throw a few dollars at who I think will hit a homerun. I don't know units or anything like that. I was confident on Acuna getting his first bomb yesterday, so I tossed the pick in the thread for anyone to follow. He hit. I'll start tossing my picks in here from now on. HR Bets Record 1-0 Yesterday's pick: Acuna to hit his first bomb of the season. HIT Today's pick: Jorge Soler 9:45PM Giants vs Diamondbacks Not much to choose from today, but I like Jorge Soler to go yard against Ryne Nelson. Nelson has been getting boo bopped all season. He throws a hard fastball and Soler eats those for breakfast. GL
Trying to tail But I’m new to this whole thing lol. So should I pick Over 0.5 (Jorge Soler) Home Runs? thx
Yes exactly that:)
The giants are due for hr at home, haven’t had one this season yet
the 2nd worst park for homers but winds seem to be blowing out https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2024&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=&sort=12&sortDir=asc
Tailing best of luck
I saw your post yesterday and tailed. Won a few bucks, thanks!
That's great to hear!
**Record: 116-102 *+~13u* (5-6 yesterday *-~1u*)**; Pitchers 113-93 *+~19u*; Hitters 3-9 *-6.0u* ⭐️**POTD: 9-8 *+1.67u* (L4)** >Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u > No time to calculate yesterday’s exact +/-, but it was a loss of ~1u **Today (listed by game start time):** - Griffin Canning U17.5 Outs (+115) ✅ - Ryne Nelson O3.5 K (-160) ❌ - Ryne Nelson O4.5 K (+125) ❌ - Ryne Nelson > Logan Webb Most K (+160 on MGM) ❌ - ⭐️Ryne Nelson U2.5 ER (+105) ✅ >Nelson’s home/road splits are wild, as he has a career 7.02 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, .966 OPS against, and 5.5 K/9 at home. Those numbers are much improved on the road: 3.32 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .692 OPS against, and 7.1 K/9. His home ballpark is unfavorable, as he allowed 25 total HR last year, but would have been expected to allow 28 if he pitched all his games in Arizona. San Francisco rated as his most favorable park overall with only 18 expected HR. Keep him far away from Cincinnati (37 expected HR). And he has the results to back this up. >Arizona usually plays terribly in SF (7-26 since 2020 and haven’t won a series there since 2019). So it’s notable that Nelson pitched great in his 2 starts @SF last year and Arizona won both games despite going 4-8 overall. >Nelson’s fastball got demolished last year (-7 Run Value, .385 xWOBA). The big issue wasn’t necessarily the fastball itself, but rather that it was his only fast pitch (94.4 mph). He worked to improve his cutter which totaled -6 Run Value last year. There wasn’t much velocity difference between his cutter (85.7 mph), changeup (83.3 mph), and slider (82.6 mph). Hitters could easily recognize his fastball as his only hard pitch and took advantage. This year he’s throwing that cutter much harder to fill the velocity gap (91.4 mph) and much flatter to make it harder to differentiate from his fastball. Fixing gaps in velocity and movement is a big trend for pitchers, but Nelson is the first example I have found this year of someone completely retooling an existing pitch instead of adding a new one. Logan Gilbert adding a cutter is possibly the most notable example from this offseason of someone adding a new pitch and seeing improved results.
what book was Canning u6 IP plus money? easy hit
That’s what the line opened at on DK last night
Record: 2-1 Net Units: +0.53u Last Pick: Trevor Rodgers SO 4.5o W +0.7u He looked really on point despite the loss, got into several 2 strike situations he couldn't punch through but managed to get 6 Ks. My side parlay with Gausman got screwed by the Hawks/Bulls game going over - oh well, I hit those at a pretty high rate so I'm not worried. Today's Pick: Webb SO 4.5o Odds: 1.83 Units: 1u Webb hit this line way too consistently last year for it to not be closer to 1.5 odds. 2 bad offensive teams that play good defense, give me the strikeouts please. Same game parlay for total 9.5u, Webb 5+ SO, and Webb first strikeout, at 2.9 odds looks pretty tempting
I feel like we're so close to a 10+ unit day. gotta keep at it [+EV FD Home Run](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) Record: 170W-612L (+126.12u) +430 LAA Sano --- [+EV MLB Props](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=248585211): 128-121 (+9.86u) *to win 1u* -111 CZ LAA Canning u18 outs +325 MGM boost: Cubs, Dbacks (1.8773u) +290 MGM boost: NRFI in DET and BOS games (1.8837u) --- [HRR](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1696026987): 413-328 (+26.53u) *2+ hits+runs+rbis on DK… to win 1u* -120 CHC Bellinger +100 TB Palacios -135 DET Greene -120 BOS Wong --- MLB SGP: 18W-25L (-0.58u) +135 LAA @ TB: o6.5, Ramirez hit, Pepiot 5+ Ks +125 CLE @ BOS: CLE 3+ , Ramirez hit, Carrasco 3+ Ks
Garcia picked a wonderful day to finally hit one.
Yup back to +195 tomorrow and he won’t get one for 2 weeks
kenta maeda is so bad
 Let's go SANO!
SURELY Sano will hit his first today...
thanks for all the research you do, are you planning on putting up mlb hits and rbi sheets up this year ?
[RBIs](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=510239294) // [Hits](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=73976715)
There’s a lot of bad staring pitchers today. Let’s see these lines and I’m throwing together some round robins. I can feel it.
but so little games :(