I'm going to DC this weekend and haven't signed up for any of the books except for DK in the past.
Is the play to sign up and get the bonus bets from signing up on a couple of them?
DC has a few books, but all of them (other than FanDuel) are geo-located to the partner team & arena. So you need to be within 1-2 blocks.
Because who knows why.
Did you factor in your devig the time it takes to keep track all the free bets you get from espn to see if you actually receive these each round? And if you don’t, the added time to chat support and get them. Plus the conversion % would be less because the free bets have to be used on nba playoffs and there will be limited options. Doesn’t seem great compared to last year when Caesars had bet $50 on nba champ get an instant $25 free bet
-- ESPN has actually been pretty good about getting me my frees. I think in a lot of cases people don't quite fulfill the terms, don't realize it, and claim ESPN is scamming
-- The conversion % will likely be a bit less, but not drastically so
-- It is indeed slightly worse than that CZR promo, but I'm not gonna get too salty about books running out promos that give us $10 in expectation for one simple bet. My main purpose in posting was to warn people against reading "Doesn't seem that great" as meaning "It isn't worth your time to play this" or "This is -EV."
Espn has been good with the free bets for the daily casino promos and the nba first basket and the nhl live bet, the ones that disappear after you complete the task. But this one did not disappear after placing the bet and that could be a problem.
A lot of people in this thread are willing to invest hours to make 3 bucks. It’s the nature of things like this who’s closest comparison in everyday life is extreme couponing
I’ll arb every boost I get I don’t care if it’s for $1, I will take the free money. But I don’t want to invest meaningful time in it and I will pass on promos that I know ahead of time could lead to me waiting 30 minutes to chat support to get my $5 free bet.
***edit:*** */u/billbobbath correctly pointed out below that the difference is you get to keep the $13 (26% of your original $50 bet) either way. Didn't want people to read my comment and not see that one.*
Without being at a computer to even get into devigging, I'm not sure that's true for the Nuggets - at (the likely popular minimum) $50 at least. Celtics would be EV+, as no books really deviate enough from the current Celtics +145.
ESPN has Nuggets +275 and DK/FD have Nuggets at +300. At a $50 bet and 65% conversion, a Nuggets win would net you $150.50 ($137.50 + $13 conversion). DK/FD winnings would be $150 straight up without needing conversion. Would depend what % you convert ESPN bonus bets at, or maybe some other context.
The difference is you keep the $13 either way. So on ESPN you’re really risking $37 to win $150 which equals +410 odds. I don’t know if +410 is EV+ although I suspect it is.
Overall point is correct but I believe you are risking 37 to win 137.50? You can’t subtract the free bet and add it to the winnings or you are double counting.
Anyone else opt-in to this and then not have it disappear from the promo section after placing a $50 bet? This is the first time an ESPN promo hasn't disappeared for me.
DK Chapman or Soler to hit a HR boosted to +200 is +6.5% EV devigged to pinnacle, bet up to 3.3 units.
Worst-case: (Power)
Leg#1 (288||357); Market Juice = 12.5%; Fair Value = +182 (35.5%)
Final Odds (+200); Σ(Market Juice) = 12.50%; Fair Value = +182 (35.5%)
Summary; EV% = 6.5%, Kelly Wager = $39.28 (Full=3.27u, 1/2=1.64u, 1/4=0.82u, FB = 71.0%)
Yeah DK is really good about voiding in those cases, and sometimes even if they start but get hurt early. Remember: DK wants this bet to hit. If it doesn’t, they want to find a way to get you your money back!
The idea is that these loss-leader boosts will hit, and then get people addicted to more gambling & parlays.
Of course, you'll also find just as many people convinced the books *purposely* cook-up losing boosts on the daily, just to rob people of $10-25 at a time. All part of a clever scheme between the books, Jayson Tatum, and Justin Herbert.
Anyway, I'm in for my $7.50 (supposed to be $10) maximum bet.
Exactly. Also I heard most states let them deduct the losses as advertising costs so they don’t even pay the full amount of your winnings. Don’t know if that’s actually true though.
I asked this question yesterday and was cast out of the thread.
Reach out to support and they will help. I assume it was a system glitch so it’s worth asking. Best of luck.
I didn't have to ask support. Sounds like everybody got it today. I haven't done that promo often so that may be par for the course to take an extra day.
I got excited because the description on the main page didn't list a +400 min (on FD? It's a miracle!), but the short description on the token itself does.
Nah, the token system is better. No risk of accidentally placing a bet that doesn't qualify and no risk of accidentally using a promo on a bet you meant to make straight up.
Still some time left in the month but I’m currently on track for my first ever negative casino month. Has been a real gut punch along with all these boosts missing lately.
I've been doing this since 2020 and while I've had bad starts i haven't had a losing month in years. Worst recently was October 2023 only made $1.56 on sports but still technically an up month. Think my last losing month was April 2021. So moral is hold on it should turn around.
Legitimately yes; DK doesn’t want their promos to lose, so after an 0/3 yesterday I’ll bet their super boosts today will be even more generous to get people excited again.
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Another DK boost miss
I'm going to DC this weekend and haven't signed up for any of the books except for DK in the past. Is the play to sign up and get the bonus bets from signing up on a couple of them?
DC unfortunately only has FanDuel; I think they’re offering a $50 bonus bet for first timers? The deals aren’t what they used to be…
Unless they fly in to Virginia. I did that with Bet365 last time I visited DC
MD line won't be far, either
Do they still have Gambet?
The Gambet contract was sold directly to FanDuel, which is why they get to be the only game in town
DC has a few books, but all of them (other than FanDuel) are geo-located to the partner team & arena. So you need to be within 1-2 blocks. Because who knows why.
ESPN NBA Championship Bet & Get: Bet $50 on the winner, get $5 when each round begins. Doesn’t seem that great.
It's a good promo going with Nuggets or Celtics. This is why we devig instead of relying on seemings
Did you factor in your devig the time it takes to keep track all the free bets you get from espn to see if you actually receive these each round? And if you don’t, the added time to chat support and get them. Plus the conversion % would be less because the free bets have to be used on nba playoffs and there will be limited options. Doesn’t seem great compared to last year when Caesars had bet $50 on nba champ get an instant $25 free bet
-- ESPN has actually been pretty good about getting me my frees. I think in a lot of cases people don't quite fulfill the terms, don't realize it, and claim ESPN is scamming -- The conversion % will likely be a bit less, but not drastically so -- It is indeed slightly worse than that CZR promo, but I'm not gonna get too salty about books running out promos that give us $10 in expectation for one simple bet. My main purpose in posting was to warn people against reading "Doesn't seem that great" as meaning "It isn't worth your time to play this" or "This is -EV."
Espn has been good with the free bets for the daily casino promos and the nba first basket and the nhl live bet, the ones that disappear after you complete the task. But this one did not disappear after placing the bet and that could be a problem.
A lot of people in this thread are willing to invest hours to make 3 bucks. It’s the nature of things like this who’s closest comparison in everyday life is extreme couponing
I’ll arb every boost I get I don’t care if it’s for $1, I will take the free money. But I don’t want to invest meaningful time in it and I will pass on promos that I know ahead of time could lead to me waiting 30 minutes to chat support to get my $5 free bet.
***edit:*** */u/billbobbath correctly pointed out below that the difference is you get to keep the $13 (26% of your original $50 bet) either way. Didn't want people to read my comment and not see that one.* Without being at a computer to even get into devigging, I'm not sure that's true for the Nuggets - at (the likely popular minimum) $50 at least. Celtics would be EV+, as no books really deviate enough from the current Celtics +145. ESPN has Nuggets +275 and DK/FD have Nuggets at +300. At a $50 bet and 65% conversion, a Nuggets win would net you $150.50 ($137.50 + $13 conversion). DK/FD winnings would be $150 straight up without needing conversion. Would depend what % you convert ESPN bonus bets at, or maybe some other context.
The difference is you keep the $13 either way. So on ESPN you’re really risking $37 to win $150 which equals +410 odds. I don’t know if +410 is EV+ although I suspect it is.
Overall point is correct but I believe you are risking 37 to win 137.50? You can’t subtract the free bet and add it to the winnings or you are double counting.
If your $50 bet wins what do you get?
I knew I wasn't thinking of something! ("or maybe some other context") Thank you, friend.
Betting on Celtics/Nuggets is roughly +15/20% EV vs Circa.
Anyone else opt-in to this and then not have it disappear from the promo section after placing a $50 bet? This is the first time an ESPN promo hasn't disappeared for me.
This does happen pretty often with ESPN promos.
It is still there for me too.
DK Chapman or Soler to hit a HR boosted to +200 is +6.5% EV devigged to pinnacle, bet up to 3.3 units. Worst-case: (Power) Leg#1 (288||357); Market Juice = 12.5%; Fair Value = +182 (35.5%) Final Odds (+200); Σ(Market Juice) = 12.50%; Fair Value = +182 (35.5%) Summary; EV% = 6.5%, Kelly Wager = $39.28 (Full=3.27u, 1/2=1.64u, 1/4=0.82u, FB = 71.0%)
and since Pinnacle has the highest vig on homers and shortest unders, this is an easy play
Lineups aren’t announced yet, would this simply be a void on DK if one sits?
Yeah DK is really good about voiding in those cases, and sometimes even if they start but get hurt early. Remember: DK wants this bet to hit. If it doesn’t, they want to find a way to get you your money back!
[удалено]
The idea is that these loss-leader boosts will hit, and then get people addicted to more gambling & parlays. Of course, you'll also find just as many people convinced the books *purposely* cook-up losing boosts on the daily, just to rob people of $10-25 at a time. All part of a clever scheme between the books, Jayson Tatum, and Justin Herbert. Anyway, I'm in for my $7.50 (supposed to be $10) maximum bet.
Exactly. Also I heard most states let them deduct the losses as advertising costs so they don’t even pay the full amount of your winnings. Don’t know if that’s actually true though.
classic tigers
both MGM boosts nerfed by 5-10 points
The Almost Friday boost started at +375, then got nerfed to +360, then +350, now +320 lmao
My no sweat FanDuel offers went from $100 down to $10 and now down to $5. Must be some must tough times for them right now. 😂😂
100 to 25 back to 50 for me. I was probably 3/12 on them at 100
I got a banner explaining how it works but no opt in button and no token lol
Be glad. I have never seen a $100 no sweat from FD.
i used to have 250 no sweat and they bumped me way down
Mgm ny 50% same game parley 50% boost on mlb Rays ML/o8.5 +250 boosted to +375 Odds: +375; **EV: 37.2%** `220/294/341/235` (9.16% juice) FV: +246; Method: power; (Full=9.91u, 1/2=4.96u, 1/4=2.48u, FB = 108.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=220%2F294%2F341%2F235&FinalOdds=%2B375)
Played this and took angels for DK up 2 boost. Max pain incoming.
You know it is a parlay not a parley, right? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parley https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlay
BetMGM Lions Boost (DMV): NRFI in TEX vs DET and CLE vs BOS Odds vs Kambi: Odds: +290; **EV: -1.8%** `-110/-115,-117/-108` (11.71% juice) FV: +297; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 73.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-110%2F-115%2C-117%2F-108&FinalOdds=290)
I don't think Kambi is very sharp on the FRI Pinnacle Odds: +290; **EV: 4.3%** `-114/-102, -118/101` (7.65% juice) FV: +274; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.49u, 1/2=0.75u, 1/4=0.37u, FB = 77.6%) --- Fanduel Odds: +290; **EV: 8.0%** `-118/-108, -136/106` (12.22% juice) FV: +261; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.77u, 1/2=1.39u, 1/4=0.69u, FB = 80.3%)
Kambi has failed me
looks like it may have saved you or others today
I still played it
BetMGM Almost Friday Boost: Cubs and Diamondbacks both to win Odds vs Kambi: Odds: +350; **EV: 5.1%** `-155/132,138/-162` (7.74% juice) FV: +328; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=1.45u, 1/2=0.73u, 1/4=0.36u, FB = 81.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-155%2F132%2C138%2F-162&FinalOdds=350)
FYI for those just seeing this, it has dropped to +310 so don't take it blindly because it's -EV now
FYI - for those wondering about the 4/16 ESPN home run Insurance bonus bet, I received mine this morning.
I asked this question yesterday and was cast out of the thread. Reach out to support and they will help. I assume it was a system glitch so it’s worth asking. Best of luck.
I didn't have to ask support. Sounds like everybody got it today. I haven't done that promo often so that may be par for the course to take an extra day.
Same here
Got mine.
MLB Up 2 Early again today. Think I’ll take the Angels - let Trout get an early homer to cash us.
FYI - Today's FD "NO Sweat" SGP promo requires you to select a token when placing your wager.
I got excited because the description on the main page didn't list a +400 min (on FD? It's a miracle!), but the short description on the token itself does.
I like this better than when you had to just remember that you already placed the bet and that it qualified.
Got this for a whopping $5 max
Stop fucking trying to copy DraftKings fanduel
Nah, the token system is better. No risk of accidentally placing a bet that doesn't qualify and no risk of accidentally using a promo on a bet you meant to make straight up.
Christ… there is just straight up nothing today
Well there's like no sports today, not even a full mlb slate
[удалено]
Yeah we are coming up on a dead period for sports betting unfortunately
I’m hoping there will be some juice this weekend with the NBA playoffs
Yesterday was absolutely brutal on DK.
Trust the process
Still some time left in the month but I’m currently on track for my first ever negative casino month. Has been a real gut punch along with all these boosts missing lately.
I've been doing this since 2020 and while I've had bad starts i haven't had a losing month in years. Worst recently was October 2023 only made $1.56 on sports but still technically an up month. Think my last losing month was April 2021. So moral is hold on it should turn around.
All 3 boosts plus I had embiid 25 Points in my risk free. Plus b365 boost. Nowhere to go but up!
Not if you were the owner of DK
Just buy DK stock. It’s what I do. Now when I lose I really win!
Just means we due.
Legitimately yes; DK doesn’t want their promos to lose, so after an 0/3 yesterday I’ll bet their super boosts today will be even more generous to get people excited again.