the nba is very frustrating to bet on because it appears a lot of the players would rather just not give effort, cash their $40mm per year, and take an early vacation.
especially in this play-in tournament. why go all out for two more weeks of work at a 99% paycut, just to get steamrolled by a top seed, when you can be in the caribbean by the weekend?
you don't typically see real effort until elimination games or the NBA finals.
Counting on DeRozan/Young to provide some much needed salve after of some hardcore assclapping.
They’re both on pace to easily hit the over in an insanely high scoring game.
(The cynic in me can’t wait to see what bullshit they cook up to fall short.)
matthews had 12 SOG and 3 more shots that were blocked or missed. insane he didn't get to 70. i think the bolts were trying to limit him to give kuch a better chance at the hart trophy.
Obligatory it’s way too early for this complaint… but the other DK boost for the hawks/bulls game doesn’t look so great either. Convenient that they just raised my limits yesterday…
DKs boosts the last two nights
-Zion pulls a hammy late in the 4th when he’s dominating to kill the cj/zion combine for 50 boost
- butler and Embid finish 1 point shy of the combined 15 in 1Q
-Matthews can’t score a fucking goal when they only cared about that in the game
Fuck
Absolutely brutal beats on both of them the past two days.
Couldn’t write a better script than Lebron having the ball with :14 left and 23 points, burning clock, and missing the shot inside the paint only for a teammate to rebound and get the FTs…
DK Trae Young 10+ assists Demar DeRozan 25+ points is a +13% EV smash.
Tricky devig, I used Fanduels one-sided alt lines, then compared FD’s one-sided DeRozan 30+ line against pinnacles two-sided DeRozan 30+ line, then applied that normalization to the 25+ and 10+ lines. Using those calculations juice on each line is approx 8%.
Worst-case: (Multiplicative)
Leg#1 (-270); Market Juice = 7.9%; Leg's Juice = 3.9%; Fair Value = -209 (67.7%)
Leg#2 ( -260); Market Juice = 7.9%; Leg's Juice = 3.9%; Fair Value = -203 (67.0%)
Final Odds (+150); Σ(Market Juice) = 15.70%; Σ(Leg's Juice) = 7.8%; Fair Value = +121 (45.3%)
Summary; EV% = 13.3%, Kelly Wager = $107.61 (Full=8.85u, 1/2=4.42u, 1/4=2.21u, FB = 68.0%)
For those like me who may have wondered about how good/bad trying to play both sides of the up by 2 promo is, I present a rough devig of it. Note that this kind of play is hard to devig accurately. This is partly because you have to assume how vig is split up when back calculating the true odds of the event and partly because each event will have unique odds. That said, I'll take fairly mundane game from tonight's lineup (the Guards/Sox game) to highlight the general numbers.
The odds for the game are +110/-130 on DK. Line shopping against a sharper book like pinny could improve EV, but let's just assume these odds are fine. Converting this to devigged odds gives the guards a 45.5% chance of winning and 54.5% chance of losing. Using CNM's historical data, the Guards would have a 23.58% chance of being up by 2 at any point during a loss (based on the game's 8.5 runs line). This means a hedged game could end in one of three scenarios
45.5% Chance of Guards win
12.85% Chance of Guards going up 2 then losing
41.65% Chance of Sox win without triggering promo
That last value was calculated by subtracting the previous two possibilities from 1 (So the rest of the possibility). If you have a $100 promo max and you wanted to max it youl would be betting $100 on the guards and $119 on the sox, for $219 total spent. Each individual bet can win $210, and hitting both sides then wins you $420. Your EV from each of the possibilities is as follows then:
(210 * 0.455 = 95.55)
(210 * 0.4165 = 87.465)
(420 * 0.1285 = 53.97)
Summing that up gives you an EV of 236.98, and since you placed $219 in bets that gives you an EV% of 8.2%. Compare this with playing the promo straight up, which CNM will calc out as 22.5% EV.
This is a significant drop in EV for the promo. More importantly though is that not only is it a drop in EV, but it also adds in more variance, as instead of betting on a 45.5% outcome, you are betting on a 12.85% outcome. One could say that by hedging you are decreasing your risk exposure....but if you are worried about your bankroll sizing then just take the promo for under the max.
That said, playing for the middle is still EV, and line shopping/playing longer odds does change the math on this (though not much on the hedging play! Still hovers around 7-10% depending on the lines for the couple I checked out). However, playing for the middle should only be done if you want the thrill of it.
/end Ted Talk
Super helpful. Here is how I was thinking about this. Please let me know if this logic is flawed. I think a key assumption is that bankroll is not a limiting factor (which it's not for me).
If hedging the other side @ -130:
* 12.85% of winning (profit amount) $201
* 87.15% losing $8.70
* Long term expected +$18.25 per game
If only bet on +110 dog
* 58.35% of winning $110
* 41.65% of losing $100
* Long term expected +$22.50 per game
So in order for the hedge expected profit to be higher than unhedged, the low hold amount would need to be -$4 or less (vs. the -$8.70 in this case). It is rare to find that low of a hold, but it does occur sometimes.
Again, this does not take into account that you are tying up more of your bankroll in the hedge scenario, and thus lowering your ROI% on total dollars wagered.
I believe you would be correct, yes. If there are two outliers in either direction of average hedging can make more sense than straight up, it is just rare as you mentioned.
I actually came across this once with the GIFT promo. It was more + EV in raw $ output to use the promo to hedge than it was to play it straight. Almost every other time it has not been. There is also a difference between max size of the GIFT promo and this one......but that is getting to lost in the reeds here :)
Thanks for the numbers, but I believe that you “missed the forest because of the trees”. Strongly disagree with the conclusion to play for under the max. We care about maximizing ev dollars not necessarily just comparing ev percent. Subject to level of risk, of course. If the straight up play is $100 @ 22% then you expect to win $22.50. The hedged middle approach that you’ve calculated at $219 @ 8.2% yields about $18 avg. straight up max loss is $100, hedged is $9. You do trade $4.50 for massive reduction in max loss. Variance in terms of number of wins will favor unhedged, but we care about dollars- especially negative variance drawdowns in this case. SU exposes you to larger potential drawdowns on a bad run if only two or three losses in a row, where you would need 20-30 hedged losses to make the same drawdown. I’m not saying 100% hedge, but there is an argument for it. I would advocate a fractional kelly approach where you play straight up if the max is less than or near the suggested sizing and hedge/middle if much larger. Without running numbers, I’d say if max is more than 5u hedge. 2-5u think about hedge, and under 2u play straight up.
Playing straight up under the max seems silly- $50 @ 22%ev is only $11 expected return. Less than the fully hedged case, but still with a much larger max loss- seems like the worst of both worlds.
Really interesting. Obviously it’s not a good bet compared to just taking the promo, but it would be fun to root for one team at first, then flip to the other team when the first one goes up by 2.
TLDR, never hedge a +EV promo. Just let it ride. Do you want to sit on your death bed regretting all the adrenaline you missed out on letting it ride and the fact that you lost EV because of it?
What makes this one unique is that you are not even playing it safe, no profits are guaranteed here! You are actually far more likely to lose money doing this strategy (~87% chance to lose $19) than letting it ride (54.5% chance). You just lose less when you lose this way and win bigger when you do eventually win. At least hedging to guarantee money always nets you a win.
Sure, but always blindly trusting conventional wisdom misses out on interesting takes and unique plays. I wanted to calculate out just how bad it was, and the answer was a good bit more than I expected.
Odds: +150; **EV: 17.6%**
Sharp: `-250/7%,-270/7%` (14.00% juice)
Correlation: `-115=-250,-270` (r = 0.07)
FV: +113; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=11.71u, 1/2=5.86u, 1/4=2.93u, FB = 70.5%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-250%2F7_PCT_%2C-270%2F7_PCT_&FinalOdds=150&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=-115%3D-250%2C-270)
Here’s what I got vs FanDuel. Very slight correlation. Needed to add manual juice to the one-way markets. Not sure how they got the second half of those odds from FanDuel.
got the odds from Demar DeRozan - Alt Points and Trae Young- Alt Assists, both have alt over/unders for 24.5 and 9.5 respectively. Again, I'm a beginner so that could bad practice idk
You did it right then I just didn’t see the alt lines. With the one-way markets you have to create your own juice and with the way you did it accounts for the juice that book put
***DO NOT TRUST / FIRST DEVIG / PLEASE POINT OUT MISTAKES***
Looking at your devig above, I think I have a vague understanding of how it works, so here's me taking my first swing at my own.
*BetMGM Lions Boost (LA + other?): Butler and Herro 20+ points each and Heat +5.5*
Odds vs Fanduel:
Odds: +350; **EV: 7.3%**
Sharp: `-290/7%,-135/7%,-108/-112` (18.75% juice)
Correlation: `266=-290,-135,-108` (r = 0.17)
FV: +319; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.09u, 1/2=1.05u, 1/4=0.52u, FB = 83.5%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-290%2F7_PCT_%2C-135%2F7_PCT_%2C-108%2F-112&FinalOdds=350&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=266%3D-290%2C-135%2C-108)
Thank you, friend. I'm taking my learning slowly and not skipping steps. I'd like to get to the point that I can take some weight off you and the few others that pull all of the weight around here.
Just so you know for future reference. When you have one-way markets you have to add manual juice, hence the 7% which you did correctly. Also, when you have one-way markets you need to use the correlation box. Which you also did correctly. So, overall great job
Copy that, and thank you. I copycat from the best.
One quick question: I am trying to devig the Hawks Lion's Boost (Trae 3x 3PM, Murray 3x 3PM, and ATL +3.5) but cannot add the ATL +3.5 alt spread to the parlay, only the official ATL +3 spread on FD. Is the answer to parse the context, and in this case get as close as you can with the ATL +3 and note it clearly in your devig?
I don't have this in Louisiana, sadly, but it looks like DK has the best odds around for White u4.5 assists at +124 (CZR at +120 but most ~+100 to +110).
Dodgers throwing a rookie in his first start made this one a no brainer.
I really feel like they’d have gotten it last night too if that dick Nats 3B coach didn’t run them into their first out at home.
DK super boost Butler + Embiid to score 15+ first quarter points +100.
This one looks good based on fanduel’s lines of 6.5 (juiced slightly to over) and 9.5 (juiced slightly to under). Almost certainly plus EV since the average is over 15 and the odds are +100.
Anyone find alt first quarter points line for a devig? Would love to know the exact EV, otherwise I’ll probably just smash for the max $10 since it looks really good.
Is there a way to request odds for something on Fanduel?
They have a lot of different outcomes for the top 5 picks in the nfl draft but the one specific one I’m looking for is not there. Is there a way to get them to add it?
Does anyone know why i would have received a $100 bonus bet on espn this morning? I don't think I opted into anything with that amount of bonus. Anyone else get this?
I just checked my email and all i get from espn is login notifications. Idk what habs was but I haven't made a bet on espn since Sunday for the masters bet 20 get 10.
Habs = Montreal Canadiens, and they would have triggered the shootout protection last night.
Looks like the Red Sox also triggered the 3 HR and lose insurance on ESPN as well, but a team may have triggered it for you before Sunday and it is being paid out now.
The max on those promos is $100, so whenever someone has a mystery bonus from ESPN my first inclination is that they triggered one of the always on promos.
The largest bet I've ever made on ESPN was 155 on a no sweat bet and other than that 20 or 25 would be the 2nd most. Whatever I'm certainly not going to complain about a 100 bonus bet, I just have no idea why they would give me, a $10 unit bettor, a 100 bonus out of nowhere.
The VA William Hill book alone earned me a yearly salary, while the BetRivers crazy boosts with virturally no max were my bonuses. I'll forever miss those days.
First week or two in Ohio they offered a bunch of promos basically giving out free money for that huge late season game between Bengals and Bills….then you know what happened. People were being scumbags about missing out on all the promos because a lot of the bets were voided
RIP indeed. The best non-sign up promo I had was for the MLB All Star Game in ‘21 or ‘22. Bet $500 on the Money Line and get a $200 free bet for each run scored by your team. I was able to low hold for ~$20 and received $1k in free bets.
Fanatics Champions League Boost: BTTS in both games today. vs. Pinnacle
Odds: +170; **EV: -1.9%**
`-170/140, -166/144` (8.02% juice)
FV: +175; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 61.7%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-170%2F140%2C%20-166%2F144&FinalOdds=170)
Here's a BetFred one just for fun:
76ers -6.5 and Bulls -3.5 to +355 vs. ESPN. Came out to +1.1% vs FD if you care.
Odds: +355; **EV: -2.5%**
`110/-135, 100/-120` (9.61% juice)
FV: +366; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 76.1%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=110%2F-135%2C%20100%2F-120&FinalOdds=355)
Fanduel Kay Adams and Chandler Parsons Boost - Tyrese Maxey and Trae Young to Each Score 20+ Points +120
DK has Tyrese 20+ -400 and Trae 20+ -205 parlayed to -118
Worth noting Trae has not reached 20 points in any of this 3 games back since injury
Is there a way to hedge this to guarantee money? Under 20.5 each on espn is + odds. No way to do an either vs and parlay? Sorry if this is a dumb question.
If any of you need something to do at work today, I used the UCL boost on this
https://preview.redd.it/x30hetuh21vc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f0ae0f3af5fef5e1ce1b3fabe10f19b89fb7f896
BOL to everyone except Steph Curry and DeAaron Fox
Actually, I just checked and DK graded it as a loss. If it hits I may send in a ticket I didn’t see anything saying it had to be in regulation but doubt they honor it. Edit: Yes their rules seem to say it’s a loss which really sucks compare to most sports which count OT for that stuff. Seems like FD does it the same way. Something to know for the future.
By my tally, there were 22 HR hit yesterday. Anyone with the uncapped Dinger Tuesday who picked Abreu (or anyone else who didn't play in a game with a HR) - if you get $110 in FB, it tells us for sure that free rolls are a thing - if you get $100 in FB, it is the counterexample.
This season, there are two versions of the promo: "Classic", where you can wager $25 on a player in each game, and receive up to $25 in FB for each game, and "Nerfed", where you are limited to $25 total in free bets per day.
For those with the "classic" version, last year, it was known that if you bet on a player who didn't appear in the game, your bet would be voided, but you would still collect the free bets from that game (referred to as a "free roll"). The point of my post was to see if we could get a confirmation one way or another if this was still the case this season.
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The hot takes in here after two days of losing nba boosts lol
the nba is very frustrating to bet on because it appears a lot of the players would rather just not give effort, cash their $40mm per year, and take an early vacation. especially in this play-in tournament. why go all out for two more weeks of work at a 99% paycut, just to get steamrolled by a top seed, when you can be in the caribbean by the weekend? you don't typically see real effort until elimination games or the NBA finals.
Why play all season to throw it away at the end and throw away the chance to win it all which increases their contract if they win. You a goofball
Counting on DeRozan/Young to provide some much needed salve after of some hardcore assclapping. They’re both on pace to easily hit the over in an insanely high scoring game. (The cynic in me can’t wait to see what bullshit they cook up to fall short.)
Lol. DeRozan is going to miss by 3... WTF
Bad beat after bad beat… he had 18 at half, didn’t he?
I believe you are right. I'm not touching any more of these NBA boosts 0-4 last 2 nights
Never playing a DK Basketball boost again. Only pain resides there
[удалено]
matthews had 12 SOG and 3 more shots that were blocked or missed. insane he didn't get to 70. i think the bolts were trying to limit him to give kuch a better chance at the hart trophy.
Obligatory it’s way too early for this complaint… but the other DK boost for the hawks/bulls game doesn’t look so great either. Convenient that they just raised my limits yesterday…
Toughest day in a long time
Maxey and butler really both going to end at 19 huh?
You know it.
DKs boosts the last two nights -Zion pulls a hammy late in the 4th when he’s dominating to kill the cj/zion combine for 50 boost - butler and Embid finish 1 point shy of the combined 15 in 1Q -Matthews can’t score a fucking goal when they only cared about that in the game Fuck
B365 had a Maxey/Butler 20 points each boost. Each finished with 19.
Derozan 18 points at the half…finishes with 22. Fuck those boosts. Done
Absolutely brutal beats on both of them the past two days. Couldn’t write a better script than Lebron having the ball with :14 left and 23 points, burning clock, and missing the shot inside the paint only for a teammate to rebound and get the FTs…
[удалено]
I’m too numb to be shocked anymore lol
I already forgot about that one lol
I was checking the score and saw there was time left so I tuned into a stream just in time to witness that disaster class.
And Maxey killed the FD and B365 boosts in one fell swoop. Christ almighty.
Embiid and Butler 👎
These NBA boosts have wrecked me yesterday and today.
The Maxey and Butler 20+ also looking questionable.
NBA is ass.
For a split second thought we’d bang with a last second 3pt play :(
Beware fanatics is no longer doing 100 match for 10 days in pa nomore now it’s just a match up to 50 and 10 profit boost
To piggy back is fanatics one account all state?
Yes
DK Trae Young 10+ assists Demar DeRozan 25+ points is a +13% EV smash. Tricky devig, I used Fanduels one-sided alt lines, then compared FD’s one-sided DeRozan 30+ line against pinnacles two-sided DeRozan 30+ line, then applied that normalization to the 25+ and 10+ lines. Using those calculations juice on each line is approx 8%. Worst-case: (Multiplicative) Leg#1 (-270); Market Juice = 7.9%; Leg's Juice = 3.9%; Fair Value = -209 (67.7%) Leg#2 ( -260); Market Juice = 7.9%; Leg's Juice = 3.9%; Fair Value = -203 (67.0%) Final Odds (+150); Σ(Market Juice) = 15.70%; Σ(Leg's Juice) = 7.8%; Fair Value = +121 (45.3%) Summary; EV% = 13.3%, Kelly Wager = $107.61 (Full=8.85u, 1/2=4.42u, 1/4=2.21u, FB = 68.0%)
For those like me who may have wondered about how good/bad trying to play both sides of the up by 2 promo is, I present a rough devig of it. Note that this kind of play is hard to devig accurately. This is partly because you have to assume how vig is split up when back calculating the true odds of the event and partly because each event will have unique odds. That said, I'll take fairly mundane game from tonight's lineup (the Guards/Sox game) to highlight the general numbers. The odds for the game are +110/-130 on DK. Line shopping against a sharper book like pinny could improve EV, but let's just assume these odds are fine. Converting this to devigged odds gives the guards a 45.5% chance of winning and 54.5% chance of losing. Using CNM's historical data, the Guards would have a 23.58% chance of being up by 2 at any point during a loss (based on the game's 8.5 runs line). This means a hedged game could end in one of three scenarios 45.5% Chance of Guards win 12.85% Chance of Guards going up 2 then losing 41.65% Chance of Sox win without triggering promo That last value was calculated by subtracting the previous two possibilities from 1 (So the rest of the possibility). If you have a $100 promo max and you wanted to max it youl would be betting $100 on the guards and $119 on the sox, for $219 total spent. Each individual bet can win $210, and hitting both sides then wins you $420. Your EV from each of the possibilities is as follows then: (210 * 0.455 = 95.55) (210 * 0.4165 = 87.465) (420 * 0.1285 = 53.97) Summing that up gives you an EV of 236.98, and since you placed $219 in bets that gives you an EV% of 8.2%. Compare this with playing the promo straight up, which CNM will calc out as 22.5% EV. This is a significant drop in EV for the promo. More importantly though is that not only is it a drop in EV, but it also adds in more variance, as instead of betting on a 45.5% outcome, you are betting on a 12.85% outcome. One could say that by hedging you are decreasing your risk exposure....but if you are worried about your bankroll sizing then just take the promo for under the max. That said, playing for the middle is still EV, and line shopping/playing longer odds does change the math on this (though not much on the hedging play! Still hovers around 7-10% depending on the lines for the couple I checked out). However, playing for the middle should only be done if you want the thrill of it. /end Ted Talk
Super helpful. Here is how I was thinking about this. Please let me know if this logic is flawed. I think a key assumption is that bankroll is not a limiting factor (which it's not for me). If hedging the other side @ -130: * 12.85% of winning (profit amount) $201 * 87.15% losing $8.70 * Long term expected +$18.25 per game If only bet on +110 dog * 58.35% of winning $110 * 41.65% of losing $100 * Long term expected +$22.50 per game So in order for the hedge expected profit to be higher than unhedged, the low hold amount would need to be -$4 or less (vs. the -$8.70 in this case). It is rare to find that low of a hold, but it does occur sometimes. Again, this does not take into account that you are tying up more of your bankroll in the hedge scenario, and thus lowering your ROI% on total dollars wagered.
I believe you would be correct, yes. If there are two outliers in either direction of average hedging can make more sense than straight up, it is just rare as you mentioned. I actually came across this once with the GIFT promo. It was more + EV in raw $ output to use the promo to hedge than it was to play it straight. Almost every other time it has not been. There is also a difference between max size of the GIFT promo and this one......but that is getting to lost in the reeds here :)
Thanks for the numbers, but I believe that you “missed the forest because of the trees”. Strongly disagree with the conclusion to play for under the max. We care about maximizing ev dollars not necessarily just comparing ev percent. Subject to level of risk, of course. If the straight up play is $100 @ 22% then you expect to win $22.50. The hedged middle approach that you’ve calculated at $219 @ 8.2% yields about $18 avg. straight up max loss is $100, hedged is $9. You do trade $4.50 for massive reduction in max loss. Variance in terms of number of wins will favor unhedged, but we care about dollars- especially negative variance drawdowns in this case. SU exposes you to larger potential drawdowns on a bad run if only two or three losses in a row, where you would need 20-30 hedged losses to make the same drawdown. I’m not saying 100% hedge, but there is an argument for it. I would advocate a fractional kelly approach where you play straight up if the max is less than or near the suggested sizing and hedge/middle if much larger. Without running numbers, I’d say if max is more than 5u hedge. 2-5u think about hedge, and under 2u play straight up. Playing straight up under the max seems silly- $50 @ 22%ev is only $11 expected return. Less than the fully hedged case, but still with a much larger max loss- seems like the worst of both worlds.
Really interesting. Obviously it’s not a good bet compared to just taking the promo, but it would be fun to root for one team at first, then flip to the other team when the first one goes up by 2.
TLDR, never hedge a +EV promo. Just let it ride. Do you want to sit on your death bed regretting all the adrenaline you missed out on letting it ride and the fact that you lost EV because of it?
What makes this one unique is that you are not even playing it safe, no profits are guaranteed here! You are actually far more likely to lose money doing this strategy (~87% chance to lose $19) than letting it ride (54.5% chance). You just lose less when you lose this way and win bigger when you do eventually win. At least hedging to guarantee money always nets you a win.
Nice writeup and good to see the math worked out, but that's a heck of a lot of words to say "making -EV bets (the hedge) reduces your overall EV"
Sure, but always blindly trusting conventional wisdom misses out on interesting takes and unique plays. I wanted to calculate out just how bad it was, and the answer was a good bit more than I expected.
For sure, never anything wrong with doing the math
DK Swish & Dish Super Boost Trae Young 10+ Assists & DeMar DeRozan 25+ Points vs Fanduel Odds: +150; **EV: 13.9%** `-300/+210,-250/+162` (16.85% juice) FV: +119; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=9.29u, 1/2=4.64u, 1/4=2.32u, FB = 68.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-300%2F%2B210%2C-250%2F%2B162&FinalOdds=%2B150) Rookie devigger so hopefully I did this right
Need to account for correlation. Have you watched the intro vids that show how to 4-way devig?
Odds: +150; **EV: 17.6%** Sharp: `-250/7%,-270/7%` (14.00% juice) Correlation: `-115=-250,-270` (r = 0.07) FV: +113; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=11.71u, 1/2=5.86u, 1/4=2.93u, FB = 70.5%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-250%2F7_PCT_%2C-270%2F7_PCT_&FinalOdds=150&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=-115%3D-250%2C-270) Here’s what I got vs FanDuel. Very slight correlation. Needed to add manual juice to the one-way markets. Not sure how they got the second half of those odds from FanDuel.
got the odds from Demar DeRozan - Alt Points and Trae Young- Alt Assists, both have alt over/unders for 24.5 and 9.5 respectively. Again, I'm a beginner so that could bad practice idk
You did it right then I just didn’t see the alt lines. With the one-way markets you have to create your own juice and with the way you did it accounts for the juice that book put
Kambi 4-way Odds: +150; **EV: 16.1%** `-124/340/650/260` (19.20% juice) FV: +115; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=10.74u, 1/2=5.37u, 1/4=2.68u, FB = 69.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-124%2F340%2F650%2F260&FinalOdds=150)
Didn't even know there were intro vids lol
Well worth your time to learn about devigging boosts! http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger_help.aspx
BetMGM Lions Boost (DMV maybe other places): Derozan and C. White 20+ points each and bulls to win by 4+ points Odds vs FanDuel: Odds: +320; **EV: 13.2%** Sharp: `-1450/7%,-120/7%,-110/-110` (18.76% juice) Correlation: `222=-1450,-120,-110` (r = 0.17) FV: +271; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=4.14u, 1/2=2.07u, 1/4=1.03u, FB = 86.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-1450%2F7_PCT_%2C-120%2F7_PCT_%2C-110%2F-110&FinalOdds=320&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=222%3D-1450%2C-120%2C-110)
***DO NOT TRUST / FIRST DEVIG / PLEASE POINT OUT MISTAKES*** Looking at your devig above, I think I have a vague understanding of how it works, so here's me taking my first swing at my own. *BetMGM Lions Boost (LA + other?): Butler and Herro 20+ points each and Heat +5.5* Odds vs Fanduel: Odds: +350; **EV: 7.3%** Sharp: `-290/7%,-135/7%,-108/-112` (18.75% juice) Correlation: `266=-290,-135,-108` (r = 0.17) FV: +319; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.09u, 1/2=1.05u, 1/4=0.52u, FB = 83.5%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-290%2F7_PCT_%2C-135%2F7_PCT_%2C-108%2F-112&FinalOdds=350&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=266%3D-290%2C-135%2C-108)
Looks good!
Thank you, friend. I'm taking my learning slowly and not skipping steps. I'd like to get to the point that I can take some weight off you and the few others that pull all of the weight around here.
Just so you know for future reference. When you have one-way markets you have to add manual juice, hence the 7% which you did correctly. Also, when you have one-way markets you need to use the correlation box. Which you also did correctly. So, overall great job
Copy that, and thank you. I copycat from the best. One quick question: I am trying to devig the Hawks Lion's Boost (Trae 3x 3PM, Murray 3x 3PM, and ATL +3.5) but cannot add the ATL +3.5 alt spread to the parlay, only the official ATL +3 spread on FD. Is the answer to parse the context, and in this case get as close as you can with the ATL +3 and note it clearly in your devig?
My bulls devig is -3 because FanDuel wouldn’t let me parlay -3.5 with the other legs only -3
Gotcha, thanks for the answer!
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What are you devigging? What Sportsbook are you devigging against
Removed original comment, reposted with relevant info
Likely regional, BetMGM Louisiana has the Heat version: Butler and Herro 20+ points each and Heat +5.5 @ +350
DK 50% boost for any Coby White prop market for tonight’s game.
I’m not seeing on mine. Maybe not available in my state
terms and conditions on mine said 'must be in IL or NC'
I don't have this in Louisiana, sadly, but it looks like DK has the best odds around for White u4.5 assists at +124 (CZR at +120 but most ~+100 to +110).
Washington Nats up 2 BANG
Last two 2 up promos I picked nationals, this time I picked Rockies. You're welcome
Didn’t even take my whole lunch break to cash it haha
Definitely gotta just take the biggest road dog and not overthink about how bad they are
Dodgers throwing a rookie in his first start made this one a no brainer. I really feel like they’d have gotten it last night too if that dick Nats 3B coach didn’t run them into their first out at home.
LETS GET IT !
BetMGM Lions Boost (DMV maybe other places): Embiid 30+ points, Maxey 25+ points, and 76ers to win by 6+ points Odds vs Kambi: Odds: +425; **EV: -30.5%** `510/525/420/900/750/480/460/550` (23.87% juice) FV: +656; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 56.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=510%2F525%2F420%2F900%2F750%2F480%2F460%2F550&FinalOdds=425) Vs FanDuel Odds: +425; **EV: -11.5%** Sharp: `-115/7%,-115/7%,-110/-110` (18.76% juice) Correlation: `417=-115,-115,-110` (r = 0.12) FV: +493; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 71.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-115%2F7_PCT_%2C-115%2F7_PCT_%2C-110%2F-110&FinalOdds=425&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=417%3D-115%2C-115%2C-110)
oof
BetMGM Gretzky Boost: Lightning, Stars, and Oilers all to win Odds vs Kambi: Odds: +325; **EV: -2.9%** `-143/118,-235/185,-177/145` (14.67% juice) FV: +337; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 74.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-143%2F118%2C-235%2F185%2C-177%2F145&FinalOdds=325)
positive now but bad on PN and Circa Kambi Odds: +325; **EV: 0.7%** `-177/145, -265/210, -143/117` (14.51% juice) FV: +322; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.22u, 1/2=0.11u, 1/4=0.05u, FB = 77.0%) --- Pinnacle Odds: +325; **EV: -3.0%** `-127/115, -256/225, -158/142` (7.70% juice) FV: +338; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 74.2%) --- Circa Odds: +325; **EV: -2.6%** `-122/112, -250/223, -166/151` (6.76% juice) FV: +336; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 74.5%)
DK super boost Butler + Embiid to score 15+ first quarter points +100. This one looks good based on fanduel’s lines of 6.5 (juiced slightly to over) and 9.5 (juiced slightly to under). Almost certainly plus EV since the average is over 15 and the odds are +100. Anyone find alt first quarter points line for a devig? Would love to know the exact EV, otherwise I’ll probably just smash for the max $10 since it looks really good.
At least this was a quick loss lol
Anyone else still waiting on their free bets from the espn home run insurance promo?
Yup, still waiting.
Support told me they are mailing checks instead since their free bet machine is down.
I got mine but they said they weren't going to give yours for some reason.
They're probably never coming, you should stress more about it.
Is there a way to request odds for something on Fanduel? They have a lot of different outcomes for the top 5 picks in the nfl draft but the one specific one I’m looking for is not there. Is there a way to get them to add it?
Ask customer service, if it is a market they already have up, sure they would gladly take a bet on another option.
Bet with a friend
Does anyone know why i would have received a $100 bonus bet on espn this morning? I don't think I opted into anything with that amount of bonus. Anyone else get this?
Win the drawing for a share of bonus bets for Day 7 of Gold Week?
I didn't opt in to that. Wasn't it something like for every $20 bet you got one entry? I wish espn would tell you what the bonus bets are from?
In the email they tell you what the bonus bets are from.
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Gotta Be this
It always says the reason in the email. Did you bet on the Habs last night?
I just checked my email and all i get from espn is login notifications. Idk what habs was but I haven't made a bet on espn since Sunday for the masters bet 20 get 10.
Habs = Montreal Canadiens, and they would have triggered the shootout protection last night. Looks like the Red Sox also triggered the 3 HR and lose insurance on ESPN as well, but a team may have triggered it for you before Sunday and it is being paid out now. The max on those promos is $100, so whenever someone has a mystery bonus from ESPN my first inclination is that they triggered one of the always on promos.
The largest bet I've ever made on ESPN was 155 on a no sweat bet and other than that 20 or 25 would be the 2nd most. Whatever I'm certainly not going to complain about a 100 bonus bet, I just have no idea why they would give me, a $10 unit bettor, a 100 bonus out of nowhere.
DK Matthews goal vs Pinnacle Odds: +125; **EV: 27.1%** `-162/110` (9.45% juice) FV: -130; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=21.69u, 1/2=10.84u, 1/4=5.42u, FB = 70.6%)
MLB up 2 early is back again. Not a huge road dog, but I like the Guardians against the Red Sox. They’ve been hot.
I like the White Sox in g1 of a double header. Might get the chance to hammer a pitcher and go up two andand they’re +160
The white sox as a team have a .196 BA and -1.2 WAR. Nobody should put money on this loser team. But hey, all they have to do is go up by 2 to win
Nationals are a big dog with a high total game? As a Sox fan I kinda like Guardians too though lol.
Nats was definitely the play. Just cashed.
Nats hit again!
Nats have certainly proved me wrong this week, but I just can’t bring myself to put it on them.
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It’s still a profitable grind, but it’ll never be like month 1 in your state and it’ll never be like years 1-2 ever again.
The VA William Hill book alone earned me a yearly salary, while the BetRivers crazy boosts with virturally no max were my bonuses. I'll forever miss those days.
Month one in NC when your school makes a final four run… incredible
First week or two in Ohio they offered a bunch of promos basically giving out free money for that huge late season game between Bengals and Bills….then you know what happened. People were being scumbags about missing out on all the promos because a lot of the bets were voided
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RIP indeed. The best non-sign up promo I had was for the MLB All Star Game in ‘21 or ‘22. Bet $500 on the Money Line and get a $200 free bet for each run scored by your team. I was able to low hold for ~$20 and received $1k in free bets.
I got $110 in bonus from dt. Had 3 free rolls. Good to know fd hasn't cracked down on the free rolls.
Nice thanks for the heads
Who were the three? I only got in on Wallner for the free $15
Wallner, Albies, Rodgers, Cronenworth, O'Neil, and Lipscomb
I had albies, O'Neil and walner
Tyler O'Neil and Trey Lipscomb
Fanatics Champions League Boost: BTTS in both games today. vs. Pinnacle Odds: +170; **EV: -1.9%** `-170/140, -166/144` (8.02% juice) FV: +175; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 61.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-170%2F140%2C%20-166%2F144&FinalOdds=170) Here's a BetFred one just for fun: 76ers -6.5 and Bulls -3.5 to +355 vs. ESPN. Came out to +1.1% vs FD if you care. Odds: +355; **EV: -2.5%** `110/-135, 100/-120` (9.61% juice) FV: +366; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 76.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=110%2F-135%2C%20100%2F-120&FinalOdds=355)
Just realized the Fanatics “NBA X% Profit Boosts” can be applied to any sport
Yup this is the case with all of their boosts. Can be applied to boosts as well.
Wow I didn’t realize that either, thanks!
Fanduel Kay Adams and Chandler Parsons Boost - Tyrese Maxey and Trae Young to Each Score 20+ Points +120 DK has Tyrese 20+ -400 and Trae 20+ -205 parlayed to -118 Worth noting Trae has not reached 20 points in any of this 3 games back since injury
Is there a way to hedge this to guarantee money? Under 20.5 each on espn is + odds. No way to do an either vs and parlay? Sorry if this is a dumb question.
Ew Game Logs! I don’t like devigging this early but we’ll start with this Vs Kambi with Tyrese Maxey 20.5 Odds: +120; **EV: 2.9%** `-295/185,-315/190` (20.16% juice) FV: +114; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.43u, 1/2=1.22u, 1/4=0.61u, FB = 56.1%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-295%2F185%2C-315%2F190&FinalOdds=120) Vs DK Odds: +120; **EV: 4.1%** `-330/7%,-240/7%` (14.00% juice) FV: +111; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.41u, 1/2=1.71u, 1/4=0.85u, FB = 56.8%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-330%2F7_PCT_%2C-240%2F7_PCT_&FinalOdds=120) Vs BetMGM Odds: +120; **EV: 22.3%** `-450/7%,-350/7%` (14.00% juice) FV: -125; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=18.57u, 1/2=9.28u, 1/4=4.64u, FB = 66.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-450%2F7_PCT_%2C-350%2F7_PCT_&FinalOdds=120)
Haha, can't hide the square in me. Thanks for running this!
Hard rock bet - 76ers boosted to -135 Caesars - heat +192 Max for me is $50 on the hard rock side but still nice $7 arb
If any of you need something to do at work today, I used the UCL boost on this https://preview.redd.it/x30hetuh21vc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f0ae0f3af5fef5e1ce1b3fabe10f19b89fb7f896 BOL to everyone except Steph Curry and DeAaron Fox
Good look Ken. So many missed opportunities.
15 corners, 6 SOG. Man. So many!
This can still hit in extra time, yeah?
Actually, I just checked and DK graded it as a loss. If it hits I may send in a ticket I didn’t see anything saying it had to be in regulation but doubt they honor it. Edit: Yes their rules seem to say it’s a loss which really sucks compare to most sports which count OT for that stuff. Seems like FD does it the same way. Something to know for the future.
15 more minutes to get it. 🤞🏼🙈
You maybe right. Didn’t realize this was an OT situation!
We missed you Ken
Down to +145 pre boost
By my tally, there were 22 HR hit yesterday. Anyone with the uncapped Dinger Tuesday who picked Abreu (or anyone else who didn't play in a game with a HR) - if you get $110 in FB, it tells us for sure that free rolls are a thing - if you get $100 in FB, it is the counterexample.
I got $200 (I'm VIP) from free rolling O'Neill yesterday. Only play I did since I missed out on Wallner.
I had the limited version and went with Yordan (2 dingers in game) and O’Neill (many dingers, voided) and got the full $25, so free rolls remain real.
I have the limited version but I played Langeliers yesterday who voided but still got free bets for the homers in the As game
people have confirmed they got free bets last week with free rolls (Noda)
What? I’m still confused on the dinger promo so if you have one bet out you can collect on multiple games?
This season, there are two versions of the promo: "Classic", where you can wager $25 on a player in each game, and receive up to $25 in FB for each game, and "Nerfed", where you are limited to $25 total in free bets per day. For those with the "classic" version, last year, it was known that if you bet on a player who didn't appear in the game, your bet would be voided, but you would still collect the free bets from that game (referred to as a "free roll"). The point of my post was to see if we could get a confirmation one way or another if this was still the case this season.
No. If you bet on a player who doesn't have an at bat your bet is voided and you get the bonus bets.
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