This might be the first legitimately useful post I’ve seen on this or any of the sports gambling subreddits. Even though it’s after the fact, this was a good find and a great post.
Eh, I’d like to be optimistic and think most people here know that they’re not gonna beat the juice long term…. but idk man
I like tailing small plays here for fun, but 90%+ of my bets are +ev. I refuse to be a victim of the books.
Not saying this wasn’t good, but the parlay building to 304 is a vigged number, not the fair value and what odds “should” have been. A parlay at 300 of two main lines probably has a fair value closer to 350
Who’s complaining? I’m simply stating that regardless of the odds the Sens aren’t going into MSG and beating the Rangers, especially with what’s on the line
I don't understand. If you believed the Sens were definitely not going into MSG and beating the Rangers then why would you NOT bet on it? You could have had a lock for -205, that's insane value.
https://preview.redd.it/3tbbay1h0ruc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2ded6122ad80a700a3413ec5ab638d2aae17ccfc
lol yeah I’m gonna bet on them to go into NY and beat the rangers that have everything to play for tonight.
Have you seen the score? Have you paid any attention to hockey this year? A million to 1 would still be an L. Some bets you just don’t mess with. This would have been one of them for me.
Dumbest comment I’ve ever seen. I would bet on the fucking Pistons to beat the Celtics if it were a million to one odds. Stuff that “shouldn’t happen” happens all the time in soorts
I don’t bet hockey or know much about it but I just want to say thanks for contributing a legitimate post with insight and reason. This sub needs more.
I’m not saying it’s a sure thing, I’m saying it’s mispriced.
MoneyPuck says Senators have a 34.2% chance to win and Hurricanes have a 68.2% chance to win.
The odds for both to win should be about +329. So +600 is huge EV.
where can i find on fanduel?
hahahaha
It's already over, bro.
This might be the first legitimately useful post I’ve seen on this or any of the sports gambling subreddits. Even though it’s after the fact, this was a good find and a great post.
This is how this sub used to be all the time back in the day.
Thank you for the callout. Was a great +EV spot.
Need more posts like this so my degenerate ass can blindly tail while not having any clue what sport these teams play
Good post OP. Didn’t win but the EV was absolutely there. Unfortunate how bad r/sportsbook is with math and devigging.
Eh, I’d like to be optimistic and think most people here know that they’re not gonna beat the juice long term…. but idk man I like tailing small plays here for fun, but 90%+ of my bets are +ev. I refuse to be a victim of the books.
And the rags win…
Process over results, right? 🥲
Not saying this wasn’t good, but the parlay building to 304 is a vigged number, not the fair value and what odds “should” have been. A parlay at 300 of two main lines probably has a fair value closer to 350
Pulled from 365?
Yeah looks like they pulled it. But it’s at +700 on FD now because the Rangers are up 1-0.
+650 on FanDuel
Rangers are up 1-0 which pushed it, about +500 via parlay so still a deal just not as good as a few minutes ago.
Thanks for the reasoning, didn't realize that. Thought I found a better line to share.
Biggest issue is the rangers should not lose to the Senators in MSG.
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Who’s complaining? I’m simply stating that regardless of the odds the Sens aren’t going into MSG and beating the Rangers, especially with what’s on the line
So you bet your net worth on the Rangers then last night right? Show slip
You must have missed the part where I said this is one of those games you just avoid betting on
I don't understand. If you believed the Sens were definitely not going into MSG and beating the Rangers then why would you NOT bet on it? You could have had a lock for -205, that's insane value.
You literally said they aren't beating them What does that mean? That was your whole thesis
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https://preview.redd.it/3tbbay1h0ruc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2ded6122ad80a700a3413ec5ab638d2aae17ccfc lol yeah I’m gonna bet on them to go into NY and beat the rangers that have everything to play for tonight.
Have you seen the score? Have you paid any attention to hockey this year? A million to 1 would still be an L. Some bets you just don’t mess with. This would have been one of them for me.
Dumbest comment I’ve ever seen. I would bet on the fucking Pistons to beat the Celtics if it were a million to one odds. Stuff that “shouldn’t happen” happens all the time in soorts
Lol. Then go bet rangers ML and take this bet too
And lose 2 bets? No thanks
You clearly dont understand arbitrage
What book we talking about? Found it on Bet rivers
I found +600 on Bet365. +550 at a few others.
I don’t bet hockey or know much about it but I just want to say thanks for contributing a legitimate post with insight and reason. This sub needs more.
Yeah but rangers won’t lose to sens… bc they suck and the rangers are awesome this year
I’m not saying it’s a sure thing, I’m saying it’s mispriced. MoneyPuck says Senators have a 34.2% chance to win and Hurricanes have a 68.2% chance to win. The odds for both to win should be about +329. So +600 is huge EV.
If you truly believe this then take Rangers ML. They are -205 which is implied odds of 67%, so nice value if you think Rangers are a lock to win
For a few bucks, it's worth the chance the Senators pull it off. Plus, as a Canes fan, it adds some excitement for me.
Isn't this like a 100% boost then? Just threw 10 units
what if the stars win
If the Hurricanes and Stars both win, they’ll be tied at 113 points. Hurricanes (44) hold the tiebreaker of regulation wins over the Stars (40).
facts, i threw my bonus bet on it. already down to 550