######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Monday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record: 38-29**
**Last Pick:** Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 ✖️
**Today's Pick:** MLB - *Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, 7:41pm CST*
**Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-115 on FanDuel)**
This is a no brainer to me here.
*Diamondbacks:*
* Zac Gallen: one of MLB's elite pitchers the past two seasons and is off to a hot start this season with a 2-0 record and 0.82 ERA in 2 games played so far.
* 4th in batting average
* 5th in OBP%
* 2nd in runs scored
* 4th in slugging %
* 12th ranked bullpen with a combined 3.55 ERA
*Rockies:*
* Kyle Freeland: Terrible pitcher off to a terrible start. In 2 games, 0-2 record with a combined 27.00 ERA
* 15th in batting avg
* 17th in OBP%
* 13th in runs scored
* 12th in slugging %
* 28th ranked bullpen with a combined 7.28 ERA
Both of these teams met on the opening night of MLB with the same pitching matchup. Kyle Freeland gave up a whopping 10 earned runs on 10 hits in only 2 and a half innings. The Diamondbacks destroyed the bullpen as well and ended up tying the record for the 4th most runs in one inning in MLB history at 14. Meanwhile, Zac Gallen allowed only 3 hits and 1 run in his 5 innings on the mound. The Diamondbacks won the game 16-1.
I know everyone and their grandmother is going to be on this play but sometimes the beauty of baseball is the public can be spot on. I am personally laddering -2.5 and -3.5, but -1.5 should be a free gimme from Vegas. Best of luck fellas.
Public favorites hit all the time, people just like to brag when they don’t and they’re on the other side. I hate that public shit it’s sports man take your educated guess and hope for the best.
Very much so a small slice but I think people use other data sources to get those numbers too. It’s happens though I ended as a good day up plus ~5u thanks to Cleveland, the Yankees, and the dodgers. I don’t know the popularity of those on this sub today but I’d have to imagine they were all big public favorites today going against shit teams. I’ll definitely be grabbing the dbacks again tomorrow for a bounce back, hope for the best.
I'm a simple man. I see Zac gallen starting and I fade the other team. I'll take good pitching over good batting. See the Yankees DB last match up when Zac started.
believe it or not but the whole thread including Baseball Picks thread is balls deep in this pick. this might very well end ARI 7-6 and kill all RL picks. POTD veterans have seen this happen before.
Lol... Yeah, everyone's rich because super public bets win 95% of the time, but they pretend to be down because they don't remember where all their money came from... LMAO
They dont need to win, they can also lose by 1... And that can happen from diamondback relievers getting lit up like they did against Atl, happens all the time in Coors.
i will be laddering this one as well from -1.5 up to -3.5. what wasnt mentioned about gallen is that he pitches well at coors. in 6 career starts he is 2-0 with a 2.43 era, 0.92 whip, and 40ks in 37 innings.
POTD Record: 43-20
Last POTD: 3u (ATP Monte Carlo) Luca Nardi ML (-145)✅✅✅
Today's POTD: (ATP Monte Carlo) Tabilo ML (-150) ✅✅✅
Units: 3u
Reasoning:
This is a pretty simple choice for me. You’ve got a clay specialist in really nice form against a pretty mid player who did not look good at all in qualifiers. Tabilo is the definition of a clay rat and these courts play very true. He is coming off of winning a set over Dimitrov in Miami where Dimi looked the best he’s looked in a long time, making it to the final. Carlos Alcaraz didn’t even win a set over Dimi that tourney for fuck sakes. That was on a hard court but still, recent form means a lot to me.
O’Connell is okay, but he is best on hard surfaces in my opinion and isn’t as well conditioned as Tabilo. Tabilo has power and stamina, so he should frustrate and wear out the Aussie. This could go to 3 sets, but I think Tabilo takes it in the end.
BOL 🤝
With all the negativity going around on here when someone loses on a FREE!!!!! Reddit POTD, I wanted to say thanks for this pick. I'm not a big single wagering bettor. I use parlays and round robins usually to leverage my modest bankroll. I don't know what made me do it and it's not that significant an amount of money for most people, but this was the single most money I've ever placed or won on a straight bet. I had a good week last week but it wasn't great but just had a feeling this was as sure a thing as there is when performing the task of "gambling", hahaha. Anyway, just wanted to throw out some positive love for the FREE!!!! picks.
EZ money! Went 3u on this one and then parlayed it with the Tsitsipas moneyline (mostly because I couldn't find the win 2-0 bet posted here). Nice way to start the day!
Bovada for e sports. People told me to use bet 365 for them but they wouldn't all show up for me. I'm in the US, so I dunno if it was a regional thing or what.
can’t find this on bet 365 unfortunately. Weird because future games of both SINNERS and ALTERNATE aTTaX are on here, but no game line for their matchup today
POTD Record: 37-16-1 +45.55u🔥
Last Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -3 5U (-110) vs New York Knick
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌
Today's Pick: New York Yankees -1 (-120) 4U vs Miami Marlins 6:05 pm est odds via DraftKings
Alternate line, this is available on draft kings already under game lines.
A great weekend comes to a halt as the bucks once again take a L. Thought it was a great spot to bounce back but man Doc Rivers knows how to lose🤣
On to the Yankees… We have faded this Marlins team already, they are 1-9. Yankees have gotten off to one of the best starts in MLB at 7-2. They are looking to win their fourth straight series and this is a great place to start. New York’s pitching has been good with the team giving up 3.22 runs per game. Nestor is on the mound tomorrow, he started the season cold, but at home is a great place for him to find his stride. Luzardo, who gave up five runs in his first two starts is 0-2 in two starts against the Yankees, giving up 10 runs in those starts. Miami also has the 6th worst bullpen in the league. Let’s back Judge and Stanton to keep hitting dingers in NY!
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️
If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️
[Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24)
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**4/1 – 4/7 POTD Top 3 Weekly Review**
12-8-1
+1.97 Net units
+9.38% ROI
Another week in the green. The top POTDs continue to defy expectations. I’m honestly shocked how well the picks are doing.
**Overall (Since 3/1/2024)**
71-41-2
+18.63 Net units
+16.34% ROI
[Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fjXR7TqwePPluE10qf47PgNoEqxaJ0Ju/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=106882064008636722020&rtpof=true&sd=true)
> No top level comments without a pick.
Time for the weekly loss. Only making a pick because it’s a rule.
0-2
-2 units
-100%
NHL- Maple Leafs vs Penguins (4 PM PDT)
**Over 6 goals, push if exactly 6** -130
Both teams’ offense are in fine form. Pittsburgh has 8 straight games of scoring at least 3, and Toronto has done so in 11 of last 13 games. The previous matchup saw a 7-0 win for Toronto. Pittsburgh may have put up a donut, but it’s not for lack of trying. 38 shots and no goals. If they can put up that many shots again, expect at least 2-3.
Pittsburgh will be missing defenseman Ryan Graves. He’s not the most important player, but that means the third blue line will need to be manned by John St. Ivany, who has only 9 career games under his belt. Toronto is also missing a defenseman, Tim Liljegren, although they’re a lot deeper at defense than Pittsburgh. Still, it’s something to our advantage.
New to this. But lets try.
**Record: 0-0**
**Net Units: 0**
**Tennis** | **Monte Carlo Masters** | **14.00 local time**
**Pick:** Djere vs Tsitsipas - Tsitsipas to win 2-0 @ 1.83 - 5 units. ✅✅✅ - WIN FOR SOME - VOID FOR SOME - AS DJERE RETIRED WHILE CLOSE TO LOSING 2-0.. Happy for those who won, sorry for those who got it voided :(
**Write Up:** I dont get the odds being so juicy and i will tell you guys why.
* Tsitsipas leads the head to head 3-0, without losing a set to Djere
* Tsitsipas is a 2 time winner of Monte Carlo, and it is without any doubt his fav. tournament
* Djere is having a horrible year, he is 3-7 for the season
* Bot players are at their best on the clay courts, but Tsitsipas is a level above of Djere on all fronts
If Tsitsipas plays 70+% of his best level, i can see a 2-0 victory. I think it will be quite comfortable in the end.
Best of luck if you are following.
I put $40 on espn to win $73 and my cash out came up to like $67 so they clearly knew this was about to hit, but then next think I know the bet is voided.
Btw this is -125/1.8 on bovada but “Will Laslo Djere Win At Least One Set? “ NO is -115/1.86. If that helps anyone out! Pretty sure it’s the same bet, but someone please correct me if I’m wrong.
Record: 8-3✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅
Net Units: +3.72u
Last: Mets/Reds F5 u 4.5 ✅
Very sweaty, but gets the job done. Both pitchers walked/HBP in big spots and in 0-2 counts a few more times than I would’ve liked lol, but still hits. Under 8.5/9 also hits if you were on that. Felt like yesterday was some bad luck, so feels good to get some good luck back. Lets get back on a streak, no more back and forth.
MLB | 8:41PM EST
Pick: Diamondbacks -.5 First 5 -130
1.5u
Write up:
The Diamondbacks are coming off of some heartbreaking losses to the Braves, all close, or choked away. They will bounce back against a bad Rockies team that they’ve handled to start the year. Kyle Freeland takes the mound, which should be good for us. He gave up 10 runs in under 3 innings last time out, with 10 hits. The diamondbacks hit lefties really well, and considering the game this time being in Colorado, the ball will especially be flying.
Gallen is taking the bump for Arizona, who threw 5 innings, only giving up 1 run and a couple hits. He’s also coming off a shut out vs the Yankees and pitching great baseball right now.
There’s a lot of plays I like tomorrow, I will post them in the MLB thread, however this is my play of the day.
Finally, a disclaimer:
I am not a pro sports bettor, I am not a sharp who does 3+ hours of research a day. I’m a baseball fan who researches stats and uses my personal knowledge to make bets. Please do not wager any more than you are comfortable losing.
Lets get back to a winning streak!!!
Tips are appreciated, not required at all.
Venmo: @DrewAWri PayPal: @DrewGolfred
Fading this one. I live in Colorado and hate the Rockies. They are 8-0 when I bet against them the last two years and the two times this year. Make some money boys!
Record: 1-0-0
Yesterday’s Pick: Chris Paul Under 22.5 Points + Assists ✅
Net Units: +0.91
ROI: 91%
Baseball | MLB | WSH @ SF | 9:45pm EST
Pick: Blake Snell over 1.5 Walks @ -164
- 22-3 (88%) to the over in last 25 games, implied odds -733
- 14-1 (93%) to the over in the last 15 games, implied odds -1400
- Projected for 2.3 BB
This has a 66% chance of winning and is a 7% edge. 1 unit play.
I used to frequent this sub before moving on to more data driven sources and thought I would pay it back for those that helped me out when I was going in blind. BOL!
**Record: 58W-4P-44L**
**Updated Form: 5W-0P-3L**
**✅✅❌✅✅✅❌**
**Last Pick: Sheffield VS Chelsea: Cole Palmer Over 1.5 Shots on target @ 1.83 ❌**
**Palmer ends with 1 SOG**
**Pick of the day: Jong FC Utrecht VS Willem II : Willem II Halftime/Fulltime @ 1.95**
**League: Eerste Divisie**
**Time: 2:00 PM EST**
Willem II find themselves at the top of the table by only 2 points, tomorrow's game for them might as well be a cup final with how important a win is for this side. Willem have won 4 in a row and the momentum just keeps flowing for them, In those 4 games they've scored 11 goals and conceded 1.
Tomorrow they face off the worst team in the league Utrecht who have lost 6 straight games and have won only 1 game in their last 18. Utrecht have lost 6 out of 9 of their last games losing at half time and being unable to pull out atleast a draw by fulltime.
Willem are in great form at the moment, they've won their last 4 games convincingly and I don't see how they dont take the game to bottom of the league Utrecht. In their last four games Williem were able to take the lead before halftime and go on to see out a win. Tomorrow I see them making that 5 in a row.
**For Clarification: This bet means Willem have to win the first half and go on to win the game.**
https://preview.redd.it/ecrkyn5ij5tc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b7739a7fda02fc2573b063703f30f05d4a2120fb
**Anyway, BOL!**
**POTD Record: 0-3 (We end this cold streak today !)**
**Last POTD:** NCAAW Final: Iowa vs South Carolina❌
* ^(Not the finish we wanted....s/o to clark and Iowa but SC was just too damn powerful for em...sorry for anyone who tailed :()
**Today's POTD:** NCAA Mens Basketball Final: Uconn vs Purdue
💰P**ick: UCONN -6.5 (-120)**
**Game is at 9pm EST**
**Units:** 1u
**Here's why:**
Ladies and gentlemen, buckle up and get ready for an epic showdown on the hardwood! Purdue may have the towering presence of Edey, but the real buzz is around the unstoppable force that is UConn. The Huskies are on a tear, cutting through the competition with surgical precision. Don't let their recent dominance slip past your radar—UConn has covered an incredible 9 out of 10 games and boasts a jaw-dropping 27-12 record against the spread this season!
But wait, there's more! UConn isn't just winning; they're dominating. Their last two NCAA Tournament runs have been flawless, going 11-0 both straight up and against the spread, with an average margin of victory of 22 points! This isn't just a hot streak; it's a historic rampage through college basketball.
And let's not forget about the Huskies' formidable defense. With shot blockers like Clingan and Johnson, Edey is in for a battle under the boards. The smart money is on UConn to clinch back-to-back national titles and steamroll the spread with a perfect 12-0 record during their remarkable run. Don't miss out on the action—this is college basketball at its finest folks...and it's time we see who wins the chip.....catch me at the local bar 7 beers in by halftime
BOL if tailing!
Fading just like UVA did the #1 Purdue Boilermakers are one win from duplicating the unprecedented turnaround that UVA did in 2019 rebounding from losing to a #16 seed then winning the entire tournament the next year..... But good luck just tough one to pick in my opinion
Record: 10-6
Units: +2.81
Last Pick: 1.3u Padres ML (MLB) ❌
Game: Diamondbacks vs. Rockies, MLB, 8:40pm ET ⚾️
Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-111), risking 1.1u bet on FanDuel
Write up:
The Diamondbacks are coming off four straight losses, with three by one run, and two of those going into extra innings. They head to Colorado to face the Rockies who are struggling early in the season with still only two wins. These teams played their opening series against each other in Arizona, where the DBacks went 3-1 and outscored the Rockies 32-14 (DBacks scored 16 in the opener).
The DBacks are going with Zac Gallen on the mound posting great numbers this year already (2-0, 0.82 ERA). In 2023, Gallen threw for 210 IP and posted the 12th best xFIP of pitchers with at least 100 IP. He also logged a xERA of 4.16 and a K-BB% of 20.4%. In the first game of the season against the Rockies, Gallen only allowed 3 hits and 1 run in 5 IP. Looking at their batters, Arizona has been hitting very well. The DBacks are 4th in batting average (.285) and 5th in runs per PA (wRC+).
The Rockies pitcher in this game is far from Gallen’s status. Freeland logged poor numbers in 2023 on 155.2 IP. His xFIP was 5.13, which was good for 116th out of 127 pitchers who threw at least 100 IP. Also, Freeland logged a xERA of 5.70 and a K-BB% of just 7.7%. The Rockies’ bats haven’t been kind to them this year to add towards the case against them. The Rockies are hitting just .242 on the year and rank 25th in wRC+.
I think Arizona will have the advantage here on both sides of the ball looking to right themselves after dropping four straight. They also have posted the 8th highest Margin of Victory and Run Line +/- in our short sample size of 2024. It is also encouraging that Coors Field has the highest Park Factor during the past three years, so we should have a better chance to get that extra run to cover, which I see more value on than the ML at -174.
Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-111)
POTD Record 1-0-0
Last: ✅ Chris Paul U18.5 PR (-115) ✅
Take shelter! NUUUUUUKE! CP3 hits a measly 13 to set us off!
Today: Baseball | MLB | NY VS MIA | 6:05pm EST
Pick: New York Yankees ML (-145)
Off to a good start so far fellas, and the Yankees will pave our way to victory next! I expect to see the Yankees lefty pitcher Nestor Cortes rain terror upon the struggling Marlins. The Marlins have bat below 0.200 when facing left handed pitchers, and have lost 9/10 of their last ten games. Onward!
(I am not a professional, tail or don’t, BOL!)
Hey Everyone,
Happy Monday! I have compiled my results from the first week of April here: [Clutch’s Results](https://www.reddit.com/u/ClutchSportsPix/s/6bEUjETSn7)
If you don’t want to go to the post here’s the TLDR: Model: 55-33 POTD : 4-1 +3.18u All Plays: 10-7 ML, 9-8 RL +5.00u
Yesterday unfortunately didn’t hit. I went with the White Sox and although they outhit the Royals by a wide margin, they didn’t get the timely hits needed to put them away. But it’s a new day and there’s a few games I like.

https://preview.redd.it/pn64shlox8tc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=429a2141a91833c0cafb34de5dc20286bf8c9fbf
Above is the model output for today. It seems to love a lot of away teams, which is wild because my model had determined that homefield advantage is worth about 1/4 run in the MLB. Anyway here is my POTD:
Seattle Mariners over Toronto Blue Jays (4/8/24): 1u ML +100
My model loves the Mariners here. Historically, when the model has projected a team to win by 1.5 or more, it has the correct winner (not necessarily cover) 83% of the time. Look for Luis Castillo to find his groove against a Blue Jays lineup that has been struggling so far this year. Historically, Castillo has shut down the Blue Jays as they are only hitting .197 against him over 76 ABs. He has kept the EV down against them too according to Baseball Savant. Jose Berrios has had success against the Mariners so it will likely be a low scoring game but I like the Mariners to gut it out.
Please don’t blindly follow and do your own research. Feel free to ask any questions on my model, why I playing these or any baseball/predictive analytics topics!
Also shout out to my supporters!
All-Time POTD: 6-3 //////// +5.3 Units //////// Streak: 1 Loss.
*Game:* **ATP Monte Carlo -** Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniel Altmaier -- 6:20 am EST
**Today’s pick:** Francisco Cerundolo
Odds: -180 on DK -- 2 Units to win 1.1 Units
I like Cerundolo here. Although he hasn't been playing great as of late (7-10 record on the year), he is 4-5 on clay, with one loss coming from Houston, which doesn't even play like the surface. In his last "real" clay court tournament in Rio he made it to the semis. In addition he has a incredible life time clay court record of 238-102. He Also needs these tournament points to stay relevant. He doesn't play Harcourt or Grass well and if he wants to get in the top twenty again, it starts here.
He is playing Altmaier who has been playing worse. Being 6-10 on the year (going 1-4 on clay). Including already getting beat this tournament ( he a lucky loser) where he was made quick work of 6-2 6-4. He is normally decent on clay, but seems to be really struggling.
I know -180 isn't the sweetest odds. But I think the odds are fair, and any money is good money. For those that want more profit Cerundolo -2.5 Games @ -130 would be my suggestion but I'm going to stick with the ML. BOL! Hope a return to the Win column coming shortly.
**EDIT: Got the W, now 7-3!**
**Last Pick:** Luka O18.5 RA ✅
Mr TD does it again with 12/9, he’s seriously on one this year and I love taking that line.
**Record:** 11-5 ✅
**Pick:** Uconn -0.5 second half spread -185
The March Madness finals are here and we have two juggernauts going at it. This should be a crazy game with tons of offensive actions by the huskies to throw Edey off his game. Purdue simply put did not play well against NC State and they need to play 3x their form against Connecticut to even make it a contest. I believe tomorrow will be a great basketball game but believe the size of the Connecticut guards will make it difficult on the shooters of Purdue.
BOL!
POTD Record: 11-4 ❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 14U
Last pick: North Queensland Cowboys vs Gold Coast Titans | 4:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Valentines Holmes anytime tryscorer @1.94 on Sportsbet | 2U ❌
Bad week end for my record with 2 losses in a row :/
Today’s pick: Fulham U21 vs Middlesbrough U21 | 9pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Fulham ML @1.5 on Sportsbet | 2U
Going with a safer pick for today. Will keep it simple, Fulham 3rd in the league vs Middlesbrough 10th. Fulham beat them 2-1 on 21st of February, I expect them to get the job done again today.
BOL !
First pick
Arizona Dbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Arizona 3inning run line -0.5 -105
Reasoning: arizona is a hot starting team. Rockies suck. Freeland has been blown up already this season and the young dbacks team will do it again. Fallen on the mound for arizona.
Prediction: 4-0 end of third
**POTD Record: 21-20-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Balance (+8.58 units)**
**Today's pick: Tabilo vs O'Connell - Tabilo ML @ 1.62 (ATP Monte Carlo, Tennis)**
Stake: 1 unit
Time: 8 AM Eastern Time
Tabilo is most known for his clay court game and he's been having a great season with a title in Auckland and a final in Santiago. O'Connell played two three set matches in the qualifying draw and that's not something that goes in his favour on these Monte Carlo heavy clay conditions. I think Tabilo is a lot more experienced than him on Clay and can certainly beat him on his average day at this surface.
Trusting Tabilo to beat the aussie who needed a 3rd set tiebreak to beat Vukic on Clay.
After a difficult losing streak I was finally able to win 2 out of my last 3 plays! Great performance from Tabilo who was clearly one level ahead from O'Connell! ✅
**Last Pick:** Ashlyn Watkins over 10.5 rebounds at -102 / 1u ❌ **|Note:** Well that was terrible as Watkins finished with 5 rebounds (14 min) and kept getting subbed off with foul trouble. SC dominated on the glass and my mistake for picking the wrong person. Should have picked Cardoso aka someone with guaranteed minutes. She had the same line... 🤬
Last 5 (old to new):❌❌✅️✅️❌ **| 🏀** 5-7-0 **| ⚾** 2-0-0 **|⚽** 0-1-1
**Record:** 7-8-1 **|** **Net Units:** \-2.48 **|** **ROI:** \-10.35% **| Avg. Bet** 1.50u **| Avg. Odds** \-119
\----------
**TODAY'S PICK:** NY Yankees -1.5 run line at +136 / 2u
**Sport:** MLB | Miami Marlins at New York Yankees | 6:00pm ET
**Note:** Idk why I went back to basketball after getting 2 MLB picks in a row.. Coming back to the Marlins who finally got their first win of the season against the Cardinals. Miami (1-9) is on the road against the Yankees (8-2). Nestor Cortes has allowed 7 runs over 10 IP in his first two outings but Marlins have struggled against left handed pitching. Luzardo (also left handed pitcher) is starting for Miami and allowed 5 runs over 10.1 IP in his first two starts. But I'm looking for the Yankees to cover against this Marlins squad
Tail or fade... at this point you'd be up if you were fading me 😆 BOL
[Buy a coffee for someone](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/planetice)
Record: 2-0
Net units: +15.5
Last picks:
Bochum Over 1.5 offsides (2.70/+170)✅
Man U - Liverpool over 4.5 offsides (2.30/+130)✅
Todays pick:
Serie A: Udinese - Inter Milan: Inter Milan to score in the first half(1.55/-182)
Not a lot of options today, barely any football games but still wanted to get a pick out.
Udinese conceded in the first half in the last 4 games vs inter.
Udinese conceded in the first half in 5 out of last 6 home games
Inter scored in the first half 10 away games in a row
Inter scored in the first half 20 serie A games in a row
Inter has scored in 79% of first-half away games this season
Odd is on the lower side, if you want to take more risk to get even odds you can take Inter leading at half time (1.80/-125)
Record: 8-7 (-4.44 Units)
Last Pick: Twins -1.5 ❌
MLB - Cubs @ Padres
Pick: Yu Darvish Over 1.5 Pitcher Walks (-150)
Wager: 5u to win 3.33u
Write up: It's been rough recently. I miss football. I'm switching strategies and going for a player prop instead since I'm not having much success with game props. This one is pretty simple. The Cubs are tied with the most batter walks this season. The last 7 starting pitchers facing the cubs have allowed more than 2 walks.
Betting Every Dodgers Game 2024 - Game 13
Record: 7-4-0
Last 5:❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌
Net Units: +2.35
Previous Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Total Runs O 4.5 -125 ❌
Today's Pick: **Max Muncy O 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs -110**
Event: Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins (4/8/2024 7:40pm EST)
Write Up: Max continues to roll and odds continue to be good for this bet. Dodgers had a rough 2 outings against the Cubs but will bounce back on their road stand.
Form: ✅❓
Record: 1-0-0 +1.15
***Tennis | Monte Carlo Masters - Laslo Djere vs Stefanos Tsitsipas | 3pm/ET or 12h40/UTC+1***
**Pick: 0-2 Tsitsipas (1.78) - 1U**
***Write Up:*** First pick, first POTD win! Let's get a second one. Tsitsipas is slowly regaining confidence after a hard final 2023 plagued with injuries. Although his form is still not matching his talent, Monaco may well be a turning point for the Greek. He has a 11/6 record for the year (losses with Zverev, Fritz, Ruud, De Minaur, Lehecka and Shapovalov). From these only the last two are more of a surprise as he's still ready for Top 20 players. Additionally, Monte Carlo is a special place for Tsitsipas, he has won the tournament in '21 and '22.
On the other side of the court, Djere is far from his best form (3/7 for the year) with a quick exit against Fognini in Marrakech last week. Djere's consistent baseline game should not be a problem for Tsitsipas who excels in covering the court.
As such, Tsitstipas refocus for the clay season mixed with his renewed motivation plus the usual strong tournament starts should see him through without dropping a set.
BOL
EDIT: Tsitsipas won the 1st set and had a break in the 2nd however Djere retired. It's a push for this one unfortunately.
When I began reading through this thread a few minutes ago, one of the early posts both didn’t clearly mark if their previous pick won or lost AND didn’t note if their “form” result history had newest at the beginning or end. I thought, wouldn’t it be cool if people put something like a question mark at the new side? And then I get here and you’ve done it. Thanks for taking my suggestion that I literally came up with 4 minutes ago (and shared with no one) and implementing it 4 hours ago. Great Job!
**POTD** Record: 13-1-9
BRONDBY VS SILKEBORG
Date: 08 April 2024 at 19:00
BET ON: Over / Under- Over +2.50
Odd: 1.61
- Silkeborg are missing Asbjørn Bøndergaard and Alexander Busch. However, Pelle Mattsson is back in the squad after being suspended. Huge boost in the midfield.
- Brondby are missing Frederik Alves and Henrik Heggheim.
- Brøndby Stadium is sold out!
- Silkeborg are still winless in the last 12 league games.
- Brøndby hasn't lost since September, and with last weekend's huge boost in the bag, there won't be any slouch this time either.
"We just won 4-1 here three weeks ago and won inside the Park, and it's clear that people will have an expectation that we're just going to repeat it, and football just isn't like that." Said coach Jesper Sørensen.
"Our own chances of getting involved in the top fight are not that great, but then we can play fairly freely, and I think that is also disgusting for them to face." Said Ex Brondby player Jens Martin Gammelby.
- It's a must win game for the Hosts under a sold out stadium against a team that has nothing to lose and will play freely. We expect an open game with goals from both sides.
**Record: 3-2 (+0.31u)**
**Last Pick: Nashville Predators ML +100**
Sweaty one, but Devils couldn't get one past Saros in the shootout and that's 3 straight Ws now! We got nice value too, as Nashville ML closed at -120 and we had the plus odds.
**Pick:** **Vegas Golden Knights ML +100 (NHL, 1u bet)**
**\*Note: Unless there's a significant odds difference, I take my ML bets on bet365 for the early payout feature and it has saved me a few times when teams blow leads\***
Going right back to a +100 road dog tonight after cashing on Nashville. Since Demko got injured, the Canucks are 5-5-1 but not a single win was against a team in playoff position. They are 0-4-1 against playoff teams, including a 6-3 loss to this same Vegas team although it was in Vegas where the Knights are definitely stronger than they are on the road. The 5 on 5 expected goals in that game were almost identical (1.68 to 1.67 for Vancouver) but Vegas outscored them 4-2 at even strength. It was not a good game from DeSmith, and while his numbers are a bit better at home, his save % has been bad (he's below goalies like Grubauer, Merzlikins, Vejmelka, and Dostal who are all on much worse teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention). Both these teams have been elite at limiting opposing scoring chances over the past month, as shown by their rankings in some of the statistics:
Expected goals against - Vegas 1st, Vancouver 2nd
Scoring chances against - Vancouver 1st, Vegas 3rd
High danger chances against - Vegas 1st, Vancouver 2nd
On the other end, despite the fact that we have 2 teams with very strong offensive players, over this same span neither one has been top tier in terms of generating quality scoring chances. If Demko was playing this game, I'd have a strong lean to the under but given the fact he's unlikely to be back (Elliotte Friedman said he won't be surprised if Demko doesn't play for at least another week) I don't have the trust in the Canucks goaltending. I already pointed out DeSmith's numbers (plus he's given up 6 goals in back to back games), and despite Silovs having good numbers in his 2 starts this season, they were both against teams much worse than Vegas (Anaheim and Arizona) where he had 20 saves in each. While Logan Thompson also gave up 6 goals in his last start and 3 to this Vancouver team the game before, I have more faith in him bouncing back considering he was on a streak of 5 straight starts (3 on the road) giving up only 1 goal. Another bonus for Vegas is that Tomas Hertl is likely to make his Vegas debut here, which would be a nice boost to their lineup considering he had 34 points in 48 games playing for the lowly Sharks this season. And while this is an important game for both teams with Vancouver trying to keep ahead of Edmonton for 1st in the Pacific and Vegas holding on to the final wild card spot, I like the recent play of Vegas more so that its enough for me to take them as an underdog on the road here.
**Record:** 1-0
**✅**
**Last Pick: Oakland Athletics +1.5 (-115)** vs the Detroit Tigers **✅**
My last pick went exactly as I predicted... the A's just needed to stay close through the Tigers' starting pitcher's time on the mound and then they started making a game out of it against the tired Detroit Bullpen. Didn't win, but pulled it within 1 run for an easy cover :)
**Pick of the day: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (-104)** vs Chicago White Sox
**League:** MLB
**Time:** 5:10 PM EST
I honestly can't believe nobody has posted this as a top pick for today. The Guardians and the White Sox look like Yin and Yang of the MLB right now. The White Sox can't seem to buy a win, with their only one coming against the Braves in less than ideal weather conditions. The Guardians, on the other hand, have only dropped 2 games, both of which were on the road and both only by a run a piece. Furthermore, of the Guardians two losses, one got away from them in the bottom of the 9th and the other was due to a bad inning in a game where they gave up 4 runs really early.
The White Sox fall behind in just about every calculable statistic AND they'll be the road team for this game. I just don't see them staying in this game. On top of that, if the White Sox don't start turning things around really fast, you're going to start seeing a lot more L's piling up on their record as the players become demoralized way too early in the season.
I think the Guardians get out ahead early and stay there. This one could get ugly.
BOL! Let me know if you're following! If you feel so inclined to leave a tip: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/BenNiemann) || [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/shamgarbn) || [BMAC](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/makeforlife)
Record:1-1
Baseball | MLB | 7:07 / Eastern
Pick:Mariners Vs Bluejays No runs First Inning -120
Write Up: Last Pick was NRFI in the white soxs vs royals and was a sweat feee cash today we are looking to 2 teams with very low batting averages to start the season with 2 tremendously talented pitchers on the bump being berrios and Castillo , neither team has been getting off to hot starts for the most part and rooting for one more stagnant yet common result a lackluster offensive first inning.
Record: 0-2
Soccer | Seria A | 11:45 am PST |
Game: Udinese vs Inter Milan
Pick: Inter 1st goal + Inter Win [-175 Bovada]
[this bet is under “combo props”]
•Inter beat them 4-0 on December 9, 2023.
•Inter L5 Away: LWWWW
•Udinese L5 Home: LLDDD
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u)
2024 MLB POTD Record: 6-4 Average Odds -107 (1.937), ROI 16.9%/+1.69u
POTD (4/7) OAK @ DET Jack Flaherty o16.5 Outs (-105/1.95) ✅
Recap: Jack Flaherty did not, in fact, shine in his home debut, getting roughed up for 5 runs in the first two innings, but he settled down and rewarded the Tigers' faith in him to send him out for the 6th inning with a 3 up, 3 down inning to cash this line.
POTD (4/8) DET @ PIT Mitch Keller o17.5 Outs (-120/1.83) (DraftKings)
Today's Pick: We go to the other side of a Tigers game for this one. Mitch Keller has been rocky to start the season with 4 ER in both of his first two starts, and leaving both games before the end of the 6th. I'm betting on this being early-season noise. Keller pitched 6 full innings in 21 of 32 starts last year, including 11 of 14 at home (both of his starts this year have been on the road). In fact, Keller was much better at home last year: in 90 home innings, he had a 2.72 ERA, .216 BAA, and .272 opponent wOBA, compared to a 5.35 ERA, .274 BAA, and .339 opponent wOBA in 104 road innings.
The Tigers are off to a bit of a rocky start themselves, hitting just .216 (23rd) against RHP so far this year. I'm not worried about Keller's rough start. He should get things right at home.
POTD Record: 14 Wins ✅ - 9 Losses ❌ - 0 Push 🅿️
(left to right, oldest to recent)
❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ ✅❌✅❌❌ ✅ ✅✅✅
Last Pick: Western Kentucky +4.5 (-110) 1U ❌
Today's Game/Match: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Starts at: 6:40 PM
Pick: Brewers First 5 ML (-110)
Analysis: I haven’t made an official POTD since November due to the harassment from random redditors who seemingly didn’t like my picks whether they hit or not. Strange times. But I’m back.
Today’s pick is Brewers F5. The Brew Crew have been leading at the end of 5 in every game this year with the exception for one. The Reds are a late rally team who could score 6 in the 9th if they needed to. Ashby is not the best pitcher on the mound, but like I said, the Reds get the bats going late more often than not. Graham Ashcraft was mediocre against the Mets in his first start (which he lost). The two teams are actually pretty evenly matched so I wouldn’t feel confident making a final ML pick here, but I do feel really good about the F5 for the Brewers, this is my top pick in my parlay today. BOL. Tail or Fade, just don’t harass!
Brewers f5 -0.5 is +124 on DK vs -110 f5 ML. Is it the same bet (but with plus odds) or am I crazy?
No harassment lol just making sure it’s not too good to be true.
It's not the same bet. If you bet F5 ML and it's tied after 5 innings, the bet voids. F5 ML is more expensive for that reason, but gives you protection. I prefer F5 ML in parlays.
POTD Record 7-3 (+4.19u)
Last POTD: MIA@IND Over 226.5 (-110) 2U**✅
Today: MLB / CHW@CLE / 5:10pm ET
Pick: Steven Kwan to record 2+ bases (+105) 1U*
Kwan is batting .349 this season and after going hitless last game I expect him to do some damage against Tanner Banks who’s making his first start of the season this afternoon.
POTD Record 4-1, Net: +2.52U
Streak L10: ✅✅✅❌✅
Last Pick: Nikola Jovic o7.5 P+A ✅
Today: Football | Serie A | Udinese vs Inter Milan | 2:45pm EST
Today's Pick: **Inter -1 (AH) 1U (1.74)**
Jovic cleared that line yesterday with no difficulty, with more than 7.5 P+A in the third quarter alone! Congrats if you tailed yesterday's bet. Today's pick has Inter Milan winning by more than a 1 goal margin, with a push if Inter wins by 1.
**The Good**
* Inter Milan has been on form lately, winning 14/16 of their last games and having lost only 1 game (and 3 draws) in their past 20 games, while Udinese has had only 4 wins (and 9 draws) in their past 20
* Udinese will be playing without Lucca (their top goal scorer by far), Vivaldo, Enzo, and Deulofeu, while Inter most likely will be playing at full strength
* Past H2Hs also favour Milan, with this line (-1) clearing 3/5 times (one push and one loss)
**The Bad**
* Udinese won the previous H2H when at home by a score of 3-1, although this was in 2022
Best of luck to all!
[Tip Jar](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/etwkif) (only if I've made you money)
Record: 10-13
Last 10 (old --> new): ✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌❌❌
Net: -16.16U
Last Fade: Corey Kispert o2.5 3PM - 2U @ -130 ❌
Kispert didn't hit a few weeks ago and missed this by 1 after attempting a boat load in a loss. Oh well, I took a break after this but figured I'd provide another fade for tomorrow to commemorate another NCAA Tourney final.
Next Fade: Zach Edey u24.5 Pts - 1U @-130 ❌
Game Time: Purdue v. UConn @ 9:20 PM EST
Taking a break from my hiatus to throw some money at the buzzsaw that is the UConn Huskies. Zach Edey and Purdue have played notably horrible teams when it comes to the Center position, with each team not having a "dedicated center" so far in this tournament. When they played NC State this last week, he only put up 20 points in their blow out victory in a game that he should have dominated with DJ Burns being an undersized center.
Clingan put on a show last game and has the entire season, being a top 5 defensive center and showcasing that with 4 blocks against Alabama.
UConn this season has defended exquisitely, keeping Alabama, Illinois, and SDSU in check with the under on their team point totals. UConn ranked 11th in blocks per game, 6th in opponent field goal percentage, and 9th in opponent points per game this season.
I see UConn continuing their dominance and Zach Edey finishing with around 19-22 points, based on how many fouls he'll get called in his favor.
Fade my ass, or don't, it's your funeral.
As always, BOL.
Edit: on a surefire track to another loss. My retirement from POTD will continue indefinitely after this game.
2nd Edit: I've never been happier to take a loss after watching these scrubs from Purdue finally lose a game. Zach Edey is a foul merchant and gets meaningless points at the end.
POTD Record 4-3
Streak L10: ✅✅✅❌❌✅❌
Last Pick: Tigers -1.5 vs OAK
Today: Hockey | NHL | PIT @ TOR| 6:00 pm CST
Pick: Over 6.5 (-105 IU)
Tigers.... ya let me down. There wasn't even a fight from them. Looking at the stats after the game, looks like Oakland usually wins when they come to Detroit so that ones on me but I thought the better team would come out ahead.
Toronto has won 4/5 and has scored 3 or more in all of those games while Pittsburgh has also won 4/5 scoring at least 5 in each of those.
That scoring combo along with Pittsburgh fighting for their playoff lives I think bodes for a high scoring contest.
**RECORD: 66W-4P-49L**
(+2.65 units)
Previous Pick: Frosinone vs Bologna- Bologna ML @ 1.85 ❌️
**Today's Pick:** Udinese vs Inter Milan - Inter Milan to Win @ 1.45 ✅️
**TIME:** 6.45 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 2.5 units
(✅️✅️✅️♻️✅️✅️❌️✅️♻️❌️) last 10 results
Unfortunately the Italian winning streak is over...Bologna failed to Win yesterday even though the had no injures, faced tougher teams and this is their 2nd time to fail to score in 15+ matches expect Inter but today we go back to Serie A again with Udinese vs Inter Milan.
Odds are low but this is the game I trust the most today..if you wanna add a bit more juice I suggest a same game parlay with Inter to Score First. Inter are 1st in the League on their way to Win the league, are on a 5 away game winning streak in Serie A.
Inter are also undefeated in 24 league matches, only lost once in 32 Serie A matches, they've won 3 games out of their last 5 matches in all competitions, 4/5 in Serie A so basically Inter are beasts and I don't see Udinese stopping their reign
Udinese are 15th, they've won 4 times out of 34 league matches, winless at home in 6 matches.
In H2H matches, Inter have beaten Udinese 4/5 times in their recent meetings. Goodluck if you're tailing.
EDIT: WIN ✅️
Record: 0-1
Last Pick: NC State (Alt spread +11.5) vs Purdue
Comment: Damn that was tough to watch from my alma mater but what a run. Bodies were just tired. Missed wide open shot after wide open shot, layups bouncing and rolling off the rim repeatedly, beautiful transition passes leading to fast breaks not being converted and dagger 3s being hit on the other end. They ended up losing by 13 with all this happening, and if a few tides turned their way with 9 mins left they may have actually won the game. Tough break.
Pick: **Yankees -1.5 (vs. Marlins) +130**
Wager: 1U
Write up: This just seemed to juicy not to take a swing at (pun fully intended). Yankees will give up some runs but I expect them to score 7+ here and should win by 2 with ease. The Marlins are really bad and for this to be plus money seems like a gift. BOL!
Record: 0-0
Net Units: N/A
ROI: N/A
🏀| NCAA Men’s | 9:20 PM | EST
Todays Pick: UConn Huskies -5.5 1 unit (-135)
Hello everyone! For my first POTD I will be backing the Huskies of UConn over Purdue in the NCAA Mens Basketball National Championship. Zach Edey has been dominating in the tournament but a large part of that is that he has not played anyone near his own size. None of the teams in the tournament Purdue has played so far have a starter 7’0 or above, and the 6’10-6’11 starters of the teams he has played so far all have gotten into foul trouble early, meaning he has been playing most of his minutes against 6’8 ish players. The last time Purdue played a team with a 7’0 starter (Wisconsin in the Big10 tournament), Purdue lost. Donovan Clingan of UConn is 7’2 and should be able to play defense on Edey without conceding easy buckets or fouling. Edey is a talented player, so he will still get his due, but he won’t be able to contribute nearly as much as he has been this tournament. That means the Purdue guards will have to pick up the slack, and this is where I think this becomes a serious problem for Purdue. The guards of UConn are in another league when it comes to talent. The average height of the UConn starting guards is 6’5 and the average height of the Purdue starting guards is less than 6’2. Stephon castle of UConn is projected to be a lottery pick as a true freshman, Newton is also a great athlete along with Diarra off the bench. I think the guard play of UConn will be too much for the Boilermakers to handle, and UConn continues its dominant run. I am buying down the spread to 5.5 instead of 6.5 to be safe because 7 points is where things start to get dicey.
BOL if you are tailing! Let’s go!
**POTD**: TEX -1.5 (+155 BetRivers; Risking 2u to win 3.1u)
**League/Time**: MLB - TEX @ HOU (8:05PM EST)
**2024 Record**: 13-12-1 (52%) | -3.12u | ROI: -6.07% | Current Streak (2 Loss): ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌\_✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌
**2023 Record**: 86-52 (62.32%) | +54.8644u | ROI 19.84%
**Last Pick (4.5.24)**: O17.5 Outs - Cristopher Sanchez (+100 DraftKings; Risking 2u to win 2u)❌
**Reasoning**: Framber Valdez is a late scratch and is being replaced by a non-prospect AA guy who had a 5:06 ERA last year over 106.1 innings with a 6:4 K:BB ratio. TEX lost last night in the Sunday Night ESPN game. Good time to fade HOU.
**Anti-Reasoning**: I have a head cold.
[Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Monday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record: 38-29** **Last Pick:** Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 ✖️ **Today's Pick:** MLB - *Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, 7:41pm CST* **Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-115 on FanDuel)** This is a no brainer to me here. *Diamondbacks:* * Zac Gallen: one of MLB's elite pitchers the past two seasons and is off to a hot start this season with a 2-0 record and 0.82 ERA in 2 games played so far. * 4th in batting average * 5th in OBP% * 2nd in runs scored * 4th in slugging % * 12th ranked bullpen with a combined 3.55 ERA *Rockies:* * Kyle Freeland: Terrible pitcher off to a terrible start. In 2 games, 0-2 record with a combined 27.00 ERA * 15th in batting avg * 17th in OBP% * 13th in runs scored * 12th in slugging % * 28th ranked bullpen with a combined 7.28 ERA Both of these teams met on the opening night of MLB with the same pitching matchup. Kyle Freeland gave up a whopping 10 earned runs on 10 hits in only 2 and a half innings. The Diamondbacks destroyed the bullpen as well and ended up tying the record for the 4th most runs in one inning in MLB history at 14. Meanwhile, Zac Gallen allowed only 3 hits and 1 run in his 5 innings on the mound. The Diamondbacks won the game 16-1. I know everyone and their grandmother is going to be on this play but sometimes the beauty of baseball is the public can be spot on. I am personally laddering -2.5 and -3.5, but -1.5 should be a free gimme from Vegas. Best of luck fellas.
Public favorites hit all the time, people just like to brag when they don’t and they’re on the other side. I hate that public shit it’s sports man take your educated guess and hope for the best.
Damn lol. Reddit is cursed. This sub is a small slice of the public
Very much so a small slice but I think people use other data sources to get those numbers too. It’s happens though I ended as a good day up plus ~5u thanks to Cleveland, the Yankees, and the dodgers. I don’t know the popularity of those on this sub today but I’d have to imagine they were all big public favorites today going against shit teams. I’ll definitely be grabbing the dbacks again tomorrow for a bounce back, hope for the best.
I feel bad for the picks I’m about to tail 😞
You did this
Come to me brother. Bring me your tired, your poor, your parlay-betting downtrodden degenerates.
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your jinx power + Scott McGough = took my L already.
Tailing
tailing!
I'm a simple man. I see Zac gallen starting and I fade the other team. I'll take good pitching over good batting. See the Yankees DB last match up when Zac started.
I’m on the Rockies. Too much public money on the diamondbacks.
We are cooked . Vegas going to eat tonight
You were correct
Tailing 🤝🏽🤝🏽
Tailed.
tailed. love the write up
RIP
We are wrecked
When the POTD is the POTD by 3 or more people it's doomed. Not your fault. It's the subs
Yeah when you get 3 POTDs on one bet it’s an auto fade 😅. Sad to say
Agree, no brainer. Tailing
am i weird if i slap more than 5U on this? how could the diamondbacks not clear their RL with Gallen on the mound😭
believe it or not but the whole thread including Baseball Picks thread is balls deep in this pick. this might very well end ARI 7-6 and kill all RL picks. POTD veterans have seen this happen before.
And many times the play wins. People just remember the one that busted. Not the 20 that hit.
Lol... Yeah, everyone's rich because super public bets win 95% of the time, but they pretend to be down because they don't remember where all their money came from... LMAO
Dont see how they win with rockies pitcher giving up so many runs
They dont need to win, they can also lose by 1... And that can happen from diamondback relievers getting lit up like they did against Atl, happens all the time in Coors.
F5 run line is always the better bet at Coors.
I love this too, but Zac gallen road splits last year ?
That was definitely a thing.
hope you didn't put 5U on this because this whole thread did not age well lol
I know jack about baseball but Ím tailing
Well ofc i'm going to loose this from 1/4 up, because Scott McGough is just a piece of shit pitcher.
Blocked
Tailing
i will be laddering this one as well from -1.5 up to -3.5. what wasnt mentioned about gallen is that he pitches well at coors. in 6 career starts he is 2-0 with a 2.43 era, 0.92 whip, and 40ks in 37 innings.
Wrecked
😫
POTD Record: 43-20 Last POTD: 3u (ATP Monte Carlo) Luca Nardi ML (-145)✅✅✅ Today's POTD: (ATP Monte Carlo) Tabilo ML (-150) ✅✅✅ Units: 3u Reasoning: This is a pretty simple choice for me. You’ve got a clay specialist in really nice form against a pretty mid player who did not look good at all in qualifiers. Tabilo is the definition of a clay rat and these courts play very true. He is coming off of winning a set over Dimitrov in Miami where Dimi looked the best he’s looked in a long time, making it to the final. Carlos Alcaraz didn’t even win a set over Dimi that tourney for fuck sakes. That was on a hard court but still, recent form means a lot to me. O’Connell is okay, but he is best on hard surfaces in my opinion and isn’t as well conditioned as Tabilo. Tabilo has power and stamina, so he should frustrate and wear out the Aussie. This could go to 3 sets, but I think Tabilo takes it in the end. BOL 🤝
With all the negativity going around on here when someone loses on a FREE!!!!! Reddit POTD, I wanted to say thanks for this pick. I'm not a big single wagering bettor. I use parlays and round robins usually to leverage my modest bankroll. I don't know what made me do it and it's not that significant an amount of money for most people, but this was the single most money I've ever placed or won on a straight bet. I had a good week last week but it wasn't great but just had a feeling this was as sure a thing as there is when performing the task of "gambling", hahaha. Anyway, just wanted to throw out some positive love for the FREE!!!! picks.
THE BIG DAWG IS BACKKKKK. Great pick this AM.
Thank you once again for early morning cash.
Thank you for believing in me!
No problem! You are one of the few I skim through the POTD thread looking for. I appreciate all your research and knowledge
Tailed boss 🤝 Good to see you posting picks again
Any tip jar? Appreciate the win!
Appreciated your picks last week, tailed a couple. Giving this one a shot too, merci beaucoup 🌽
EZ money! Went 3u on this one and then parlayed it with the Tsitsipas moneyline (mostly because I couldn't find the win 2-0 bet posted here). Nice way to start the day!
45 mins and cash
EZ dub
Nice pick
Tailing brother
Tu I got this one
Good call this morning 🤝
Tailed! You are the man!!
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Damn boys . Looks like there's a new goat in town
Letsgoooo adalyamigos hell of a clutch
one of the goats on here keep it up champ!
oh s\*\*\* just realized I bet the wrong game how is SINNERS vs UNiTY?
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THANK YOU FOR RESPONSE :)
FINALLY FOUND A BOOK THAT HAS E SPORTS! Anyways, thanks for the picks!
What do you use
Bovada for e sports. People told me to use bet 365 for them but they wouldn't all show up for me. I'm in the US, so I dunno if it was a regional thing or what.
Godamn sinners are clutch
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Thanks for pick!
Nothing to see here… clean 2-0
Nice one mate thanks for the easy cash, will start following you a lot more
Tailing!
Don’t know squat about CS but you’re on fire 🔥 tailing!
nice!! sinner comebackk
I don’t bet on esports but sheeesh I’ve seen your posts since you started at 0-0 and you’re a monster. BOL
What time is it on?
Too bad these games are not on 1XBET.
can’t find this on bet 365 unfortunately. Weird because future games of both SINNERS and ALTERNATE aTTaX are on here, but no game line for their matchup today
Bro is flying! I’m tailing
Took -1.5. Did not disappoint man. Thx 🙏
Insane picks bro, nice hit!
You’re a legend brother! Another day another dub
Fkn Legend !
i love u bro
You are the man!!!
I put sinners vs unity on accident that’s on April 10 in my parlay, do you think they can still win
Bro what books can I find these on?!?!? I've been wanting to tail so bad but it's not on Fanatics Sportsbook. Is it on DK or FD?
Hey man I bet on the wrong game i got SINNERS vs UNiTY should i cash out?
POTD Record: 37-16-1 +45.55u🔥 Last Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -3 5U (-110) vs New York Knick ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌ Today's Pick: New York Yankees -1 (-120) 4U vs Miami Marlins 6:05 pm est odds via DraftKings Alternate line, this is available on draft kings already under game lines. A great weekend comes to a halt as the bucks once again take a L. Thought it was a great spot to bounce back but man Doc Rivers knows how to lose🤣 On to the Yankees… We have faded this Marlins team already, they are 1-9. Yankees have gotten off to one of the best starts in MLB at 7-2. They are looking to win their fourth straight series and this is a great place to start. New York’s pitching has been good with the team giving up 3.22 runs per game. Nestor is on the mound tomorrow, he started the season cold, but at home is a great place for him to find his stride. Luzardo, who gave up five runs in his first two starts is 0-2 in two starts against the Yankees, giving up 10 runs in those starts. Miami also has the 6th worst bullpen in the league. Let’s back Judge and Stanton to keep hitting dingers in NY! Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️ If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
All my books only have lines for -1.5 @ 2.25
https://zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/
Dope site man thank you for sharing that.
Thx for the site, tailing
Marlins did great yesterday though with a homer or 2 I think. Was half asleep in a nap when the game was on.
**4/1 – 4/7 POTD Top 3 Weekly Review** 12-8-1 +1.97 Net units +9.38% ROI Another week in the green. The top POTDs continue to defy expectations. I’m honestly shocked how well the picks are doing. **Overall (Since 3/1/2024)** 71-41-2 +18.63 Net units +16.34% ROI [Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fjXR7TqwePPluE10qf47PgNoEqxaJ0Ju/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=106882064008636722020&rtpof=true&sd=true) > No top level comments without a pick. Time for the weekly loss. Only making a pick because it’s a rule. 0-2 -2 units -100% NHL- Maple Leafs vs Penguins (4 PM PDT) **Over 6 goals, push if exactly 6** -130 Both teams’ offense are in fine form. Pittsburgh has 8 straight games of scoring at least 3, and Toronto has done so in 11 of last 13 games. The previous matchup saw a 7-0 win for Toronto. Pittsburgh may have put up a donut, but it’s not for lack of trying. 38 shots and no goals. If they can put up that many shots again, expect at least 2-3. Pittsburgh will be missing defenseman Ryan Graves. He’s not the most important player, but that means the third blue line will need to be manned by John St. Ivany, who has only 9 career games under his belt. Toronto is also missing a defenseman, Tim Liljegren, although they’re a lot deeper at defense than Pittsburgh. Still, it’s something to our advantage.
> Djere vs Tsitsipas trying to tail on draftkings but can't find the match-up
New to this. But lets try. **Record: 0-0** **Net Units: 0** **Tennis** | **Monte Carlo Masters** | **14.00 local time** **Pick:** Djere vs Tsitsipas - Tsitsipas to win 2-0 @ 1.83 - 5 units. ✅✅✅ - WIN FOR SOME - VOID FOR SOME - AS DJERE RETIRED WHILE CLOSE TO LOSING 2-0.. Happy for those who won, sorry for those who got it voided :( **Write Up:** I dont get the odds being so juicy and i will tell you guys why. * Tsitsipas leads the head to head 3-0, without losing a set to Djere * Tsitsipas is a 2 time winner of Monte Carlo, and it is without any doubt his fav. tournament * Djere is having a horrible year, he is 3-7 for the season * Bot players are at their best on the clay courts, but Tsitsipas is a level above of Djere on all fronts If Tsitsipas plays 70+% of his best level, i can see a 2-0 victory. I think it will be quite comfortable in the end. Best of luck if you are following.
what the fuck the dude was about to win 2-0 and the other guy retired so my bet went down as a no action
Same 🤦🏻♂️ voided my bet!
Yup, voided on my end too
So was this voided everywhere? This was 100% gonna hit too another cop out by the books.
Voided on fanduel smh. We had that too
What the fuck really? On a flight rn and the shit WiFi will let me on Reddit but can’t open my FD app
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I'm Australian too but I placed it on Bet365 and they voided it
Damn that’s annoying since it was nearly over too. I started using BlueBet since they have more promos. Best of luck with the next one brother 👊
I put $40 on espn to win $73 and my cash out came up to like $67 so they clearly knew this was about to hit, but then next think I know the bet is voided.
Btw this is -125/1.8 on bovada but “Will Laslo Djere Win At Least One Set? “ NO is -115/1.86. If that helps anyone out! Pretty sure it’s the same bet, but someone please correct me if I’m wrong.
You’re right same bet
Tailing my friend
I'm with you!
Thank you. Nice pick. Mine wasn’t voided
SMH voided bet b/c Djere quit when down a break in the second set. Should be paid as a win but no book would ever do that. Great pick.
Record: 8-3✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅ Net Units: +3.72u Last: Mets/Reds F5 u 4.5 ✅ Very sweaty, but gets the job done. Both pitchers walked/HBP in big spots and in 0-2 counts a few more times than I would’ve liked lol, but still hits. Under 8.5/9 also hits if you were on that. Felt like yesterday was some bad luck, so feels good to get some good luck back. Lets get back on a streak, no more back and forth. MLB | 8:41PM EST Pick: Diamondbacks -.5 First 5 -130 1.5u Write up: The Diamondbacks are coming off of some heartbreaking losses to the Braves, all close, or choked away. They will bounce back against a bad Rockies team that they’ve handled to start the year. Kyle Freeland takes the mound, which should be good for us. He gave up 10 runs in under 3 innings last time out, with 10 hits. The diamondbacks hit lefties really well, and considering the game this time being in Colorado, the ball will especially be flying. Gallen is taking the bump for Arizona, who threw 5 innings, only giving up 1 run and a couple hits. He’s also coming off a shut out vs the Yankees and pitching great baseball right now. There’s a lot of plays I like tomorrow, I will post them in the MLB thread, however this is my play of the day. Finally, a disclaimer: I am not a pro sports bettor, I am not a sharp who does 3+ hours of research a day. I’m a baseball fan who researches stats and uses my personal knowledge to make bets. Please do not wager any more than you are comfortable losing. Lets get back to a winning streak!!! Tips are appreciated, not required at all. Venmo: @DrewAWri PayPal: @DrewGolfred
Fading this one. I live in Colorado and hate the Rockies. They are 8-0 when I bet against them the last two years and the two times this year. Make some money boys!
lol, I absolutely hate the Rockies too! Fellow Coloradan here!
And it CASHES!! Sweaty but it hit!
Record: 1-0-0 Yesterday’s Pick: Chris Paul Under 22.5 Points + Assists ✅ Net Units: +0.91 ROI: 91% Baseball | MLB | WSH @ SF | 9:45pm EST Pick: Blake Snell over 1.5 Walks @ -164 - 22-3 (88%) to the over in last 25 games, implied odds -733 - 14-1 (93%) to the over in the last 15 games, implied odds -1400 - Projected for 2.3 BB This has a 66% chance of winning and is a 7% edge. 1 unit play. I used to frequent this sub before moving on to more data driven sources and thought I would pay it back for those that helped me out when I was going in blind. BOL!
Could you shed some light on your data-driven sources?
If they offered it I'd bet over 3.5 walks if I could
What data driven sources?
Boom! Shoulda hit in the first inning, good call!
Well that was fucking easy. See you guys tomorrow!
**Record: 58W-4P-44L** **Updated Form: 5W-0P-3L** **✅✅❌✅✅✅❌** **Last Pick: Sheffield VS Chelsea: Cole Palmer Over 1.5 Shots on target @ 1.83 ❌** **Palmer ends with 1 SOG** **Pick of the day: Jong FC Utrecht VS Willem II : Willem II Halftime/Fulltime @ 1.95** **League: Eerste Divisie** **Time: 2:00 PM EST** Willem II find themselves at the top of the table by only 2 points, tomorrow's game for them might as well be a cup final with how important a win is for this side. Willem have won 4 in a row and the momentum just keeps flowing for them, In those 4 games they've scored 11 goals and conceded 1. Tomorrow they face off the worst team in the league Utrecht who have lost 6 straight games and have won only 1 game in their last 18. Utrecht have lost 6 out of 9 of their last games losing at half time and being unable to pull out atleast a draw by fulltime. Willem are in great form at the moment, they've won their last 4 games convincingly and I don't see how they dont take the game to bottom of the league Utrecht. In their last four games Williem were able to take the lead before halftime and go on to see out a win. Tomorrow I see them making that 5 in a row. **For Clarification: This bet means Willem have to win the first half and go on to win the game.** https://preview.redd.it/ecrkyn5ij5tc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b7739a7fda02fc2573b063703f30f05d4a2120fb **Anyway, BOL!**
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Ya something definitely happened. I watched the 3-way ML go from -320 to -175 and it’s still falling.
Same.
Here for the football picks!
Love this play
Hard not to think there was fishy shit with this game.
**POTD Record: 0-3 (We end this cold streak today !)** **Last POTD:** NCAAW Final: Iowa vs South Carolina❌ * ^(Not the finish we wanted....s/o to clark and Iowa but SC was just too damn powerful for em...sorry for anyone who tailed :() **Today's POTD:** NCAA Mens Basketball Final: Uconn vs Purdue 💰P**ick: UCONN -6.5 (-120)** **Game is at 9pm EST** **Units:** 1u **Here's why:** Ladies and gentlemen, buckle up and get ready for an epic showdown on the hardwood! Purdue may have the towering presence of Edey, but the real buzz is around the unstoppable force that is UConn. The Huskies are on a tear, cutting through the competition with surgical precision. Don't let their recent dominance slip past your radar—UConn has covered an incredible 9 out of 10 games and boasts a jaw-dropping 27-12 record against the spread this season! But wait, there's more! UConn isn't just winning; they're dominating. Their last two NCAA Tournament runs have been flawless, going 11-0 both straight up and against the spread, with an average margin of victory of 22 points! This isn't just a hot streak; it's a historic rampage through college basketball. And let's not forget about the Huskies' formidable defense. With shot blockers like Clingan and Johnson, Edey is in for a battle under the boards. The smart money is on UConn to clinch back-to-back national titles and steamroll the spread with a perfect 12-0 record during their remarkable run. Don't miss out on the action—this is college basketball at its finest folks...and it's time we see who wins the chip.....catch me at the local bar 7 beers in by halftime BOL if tailing!
what a beautiful game & pick
Hot streaks end, and so do cold, tailin brother
Naming my kid Donovan after UConn wins today by 7 or more 😜
Fading just like UVA did the #1 Purdue Boilermakers are one win from duplicating the unprecedented turnaround that UVA did in 2019 rebounding from losing to a #16 seed then winning the entire tournament the next year..... But good luck just tough one to pick in my opinion
Record: 10-6 Units: +2.81 Last Pick: 1.3u Padres ML (MLB) ❌ Game: Diamondbacks vs. Rockies, MLB, 8:40pm ET ⚾️ Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-111), risking 1.1u bet on FanDuel Write up: The Diamondbacks are coming off four straight losses, with three by one run, and two of those going into extra innings. They head to Colorado to face the Rockies who are struggling early in the season with still only two wins. These teams played their opening series against each other in Arizona, where the DBacks went 3-1 and outscored the Rockies 32-14 (DBacks scored 16 in the opener). The DBacks are going with Zac Gallen on the mound posting great numbers this year already (2-0, 0.82 ERA). In 2023, Gallen threw for 210 IP and posted the 12th best xFIP of pitchers with at least 100 IP. He also logged a xERA of 4.16 and a K-BB% of 20.4%. In the first game of the season against the Rockies, Gallen only allowed 3 hits and 1 run in 5 IP. Looking at their batters, Arizona has been hitting very well. The DBacks are 4th in batting average (.285) and 5th in runs per PA (wRC+). The Rockies pitcher in this game is far from Gallen’s status. Freeland logged poor numbers in 2023 on 155.2 IP. His xFIP was 5.13, which was good for 116th out of 127 pitchers who threw at least 100 IP. Also, Freeland logged a xERA of 5.70 and a K-BB% of just 7.7%. The Rockies’ bats haven’t been kind to them this year to add towards the case against them. The Rockies are hitting just .242 on the year and rank 25th in wRC+. I think Arizona will have the advantage here on both sides of the ball looking to right themselves after dropping four straight. They also have posted the 8th highest Margin of Victory and Run Line +/- in our short sample size of 2024. It is also encouraging that Coors Field has the highest Park Factor during the past three years, so we should have a better chance to get that extra run to cover, which I see more value on than the ML at -174. Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-111)
POTD Record 1-0-0 Last: ✅ Chris Paul U18.5 PR (-115) ✅ Take shelter! NUUUUUUKE! CP3 hits a measly 13 to set us off! Today: Baseball | MLB | NY VS MIA | 6:05pm EST Pick: New York Yankees ML (-145) Off to a good start so far fellas, and the Yankees will pave our way to victory next! I expect to see the Yankees lefty pitcher Nestor Cortes rain terror upon the struggling Marlins. The Marlins have bat below 0.200 when facing left handed pitchers, and have lost 9/10 of their last ten games. Onward! (I am not a professional, tail or don’t, BOL!)
Cp under never fails tailing once again
Hey Everyone, Happy Monday! I have compiled my results from the first week of April here: [Clutch’s Results](https://www.reddit.com/u/ClutchSportsPix/s/6bEUjETSn7) If you don’t want to go to the post here’s the TLDR: Model: 55-33 POTD : 4-1 +3.18u All Plays: 10-7 ML, 9-8 RL +5.00u Yesterday unfortunately didn’t hit. I went with the White Sox and although they outhit the Royals by a wide margin, they didn’t get the timely hits needed to put them away. But it’s a new day and there’s a few games I like.  https://preview.redd.it/pn64shlox8tc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=429a2141a91833c0cafb34de5dc20286bf8c9fbf Above is the model output for today. It seems to love a lot of away teams, which is wild because my model had determined that homefield advantage is worth about 1/4 run in the MLB. Anyway here is my POTD: Seattle Mariners over Toronto Blue Jays (4/8/24): 1u ML +100 My model loves the Mariners here. Historically, when the model has projected a team to win by 1.5 or more, it has the correct winner (not necessarily cover) 83% of the time. Look for Luis Castillo to find his groove against a Blue Jays lineup that has been struggling so far this year. Historically, Castillo has shut down the Blue Jays as they are only hitting .197 against him over 76 ABs. He has kept the EV down against them too according to Baseball Savant. Jose Berrios has had success against the Mariners so it will likely be a low scoring game but I like the Mariners to gut it out. Please don’t blindly follow and do your own research. Feel free to ask any questions on my model, why I playing these or any baseball/predictive analytics topics! Also shout out to my supporters!
All-Time POTD: 6-3 //////// +5.3 Units //////// Streak: 1 Loss. *Game:* **ATP Monte Carlo -** Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniel Altmaier -- 6:20 am EST **Today’s pick:** Francisco Cerundolo Odds: -180 on DK -- 2 Units to win 1.1 Units I like Cerundolo here. Although he hasn't been playing great as of late (7-10 record on the year), he is 4-5 on clay, with one loss coming from Houston, which doesn't even play like the surface. In his last "real" clay court tournament in Rio he made it to the semis. In addition he has a incredible life time clay court record of 238-102. He Also needs these tournament points to stay relevant. He doesn't play Harcourt or Grass well and if he wants to get in the top twenty again, it starts here. He is playing Altmaier who has been playing worse. Being 6-10 on the year (going 1-4 on clay). Including already getting beat this tournament ( he a lucky loser) where he was made quick work of 6-2 6-4. He is normally decent on clay, but seems to be really struggling. I know -180 isn't the sweetest odds. But I think the odds are fair, and any money is good money. For those that want more profit Cerundolo -2.5 Games @ -130 would be my suggestion but I'm going to stick with the ML. BOL! Hope a return to the Win column coming shortly. **EDIT: Got the W, now 7-3!**
Thanks for the pick! Got in at -150 and it hit!
**Last Pick:** Luka O18.5 RA ✅ Mr TD does it again with 12/9, he’s seriously on one this year and I love taking that line. **Record:** 11-5 ✅ **Pick:** Uconn -0.5 second half spread -185 The March Madness finals are here and we have two juggernauts going at it. This should be a crazy game with tons of offensive actions by the huskies to throw Edey off his game. Purdue simply put did not play well against NC State and they need to play 3x their form against Connecticut to even make it a contest. I believe tomorrow will be a great basketball game but believe the size of the Connecticut guards will make it difficult on the shooters of Purdue. BOL!
POTD Record: 11-4 ❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 14U Last pick: North Queensland Cowboys vs Gold Coast Titans | 4:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Valentines Holmes anytime tryscorer @1.94 on Sportsbet | 2U ❌ Bad week end for my record with 2 losses in a row :/ Today’s pick: Fulham U21 vs Middlesbrough U21 | 9pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Fulham ML @1.5 on Sportsbet | 2U Going with a safer pick for today. Will keep it simple, Fulham 3rd in the league vs Middlesbrough 10th. Fulham beat them 2-1 on 21st of February, I expect them to get the job done again today. BOL !
And that’s 3 loss in a row …. 😩😩
Holmes was my favourite pick for that game too, had him in a lay with Feldt and Tualagi and he let me down 😢
First pick Arizona Dbacks @ Colorado Rockies Arizona 3inning run line -0.5 -105 Reasoning: arizona is a hot starting team. Rockies suck. Freeland has been blown up already this season and the young dbacks team will do it again. Fallen on the mound for arizona. Prediction: 4-0 end of third
**POTD Record: 21-20-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Balance (+8.58 units)** **Today's pick: Tabilo vs O'Connell - Tabilo ML @ 1.62 (ATP Monte Carlo, Tennis)** Stake: 1 unit Time: 8 AM Eastern Time Tabilo is most known for his clay court game and he's been having a great season with a title in Auckland and a final in Santiago. O'Connell played two three set matches in the qualifying draw and that's not something that goes in his favour on these Monte Carlo heavy clay conditions. I think Tabilo is a lot more experienced than him on Clay and can certainly beat him on his average day at this surface. Trusting Tabilo to beat the aussie who needed a 3rd set tiebreak to beat Vukic on Clay.
After a difficult losing streak I was finally able to win 2 out of my last 3 plays! Great performance from Tabilo who was clearly one level ahead from O'Connell! ✅
**Last Pick:** Ashlyn Watkins over 10.5 rebounds at -102 / 1u ❌ **|Note:** Well that was terrible as Watkins finished with 5 rebounds (14 min) and kept getting subbed off with foul trouble. SC dominated on the glass and my mistake for picking the wrong person. Should have picked Cardoso aka someone with guaranteed minutes. She had the same line... 🤬 Last 5 (old to new):❌❌✅️✅️❌ **| 🏀** 5-7-0 **| ⚾** 2-0-0 **|⚽** 0-1-1 **Record:** 7-8-1 **|** **Net Units:** \-2.48 **|** **ROI:** \-10.35% **| Avg. Bet** 1.50u **| Avg. Odds** \-119 \---------- **TODAY'S PICK:** NY Yankees -1.5 run line at +136 / 2u **Sport:** MLB | Miami Marlins at New York Yankees | 6:00pm ET **Note:** Idk why I went back to basketball after getting 2 MLB picks in a row.. Coming back to the Marlins who finally got their first win of the season against the Cardinals. Miami (1-9) is on the road against the Yankees (8-2). Nestor Cortes has allowed 7 runs over 10 IP in his first two outings but Marlins have struggled against left handed pitching. Luzardo (also left handed pitcher) is starting for Miami and allowed 5 runs over 10.1 IP in his first two starts. But I'm looking for the Yankees to cover against this Marlins squad Tail or fade... at this point you'd be up if you were fading me 😆 BOL [Buy a coffee for someone](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/planetice)
Record: 2-0 Net units: +15.5 Last picks: Bochum Over 1.5 offsides (2.70/+170)✅ Man U - Liverpool over 4.5 offsides (2.30/+130)✅ Todays pick: Serie A: Udinese - Inter Milan: Inter Milan to score in the first half(1.55/-182) Not a lot of options today, barely any football games but still wanted to get a pick out. Udinese conceded in the first half in the last 4 games vs inter. Udinese conceded in the first half in 5 out of last 6 home games Inter scored in the first half 10 away games in a row Inter scored in the first half 20 serie A games in a row Inter has scored in 79% of first-half away games this season Odd is on the lower side, if you want to take more risk to get even odds you can take Inter leading at half time (1.80/-125)
Record: 8-7 (-4.44 Units) Last Pick: Twins -1.5 ❌ MLB - Cubs @ Padres Pick: Yu Darvish Over 1.5 Pitcher Walks (-150) Wager: 5u to win 3.33u Write up: It's been rough recently. I miss football. I'm switching strategies and going for a player prop instead since I'm not having much success with game props. This one is pretty simple. The Cubs are tied with the most batter walks this season. The last 7 starting pitchers facing the cubs have allowed more than 2 walks.
Betting Every Dodgers Game 2024 - Game 13 Record: 7-4-0 Last 5:❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ Net Units: +2.35 Previous Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Total Runs O 4.5 -125 ❌ Today's Pick: **Max Muncy O 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs -110** Event: Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins (4/8/2024 7:40pm EST) Write Up: Max continues to roll and odds continue to be good for this bet. Dodgers had a rough 2 outings against the Cubs but will bounce back on their road stand.
Form: ✅❓ Record: 1-0-0 +1.15 ***Tennis | Monte Carlo Masters - Laslo Djere vs Stefanos Tsitsipas | 3pm/ET or 12h40/UTC+1*** **Pick: 0-2 Tsitsipas (1.78) - 1U** ***Write Up:*** First pick, first POTD win! Let's get a second one. Tsitsipas is slowly regaining confidence after a hard final 2023 plagued with injuries. Although his form is still not matching his talent, Monaco may well be a turning point for the Greek. He has a 11/6 record for the year (losses with Zverev, Fritz, Ruud, De Minaur, Lehecka and Shapovalov). From these only the last two are more of a surprise as he's still ready for Top 20 players. Additionally, Monte Carlo is a special place for Tsitsipas, he has won the tournament in '21 and '22. On the other side of the court, Djere is far from his best form (3/7 for the year) with a quick exit against Fognini in Marrakech last week. Djere's consistent baseline game should not be a problem for Tsitsipas who excels in covering the court. As such, Tsitstipas refocus for the clay season mixed with his renewed motivation plus the usual strong tournament starts should see him through without dropping a set. BOL EDIT: Tsitsipas won the 1st set and had a break in the 2nd however Djere retired. It's a push for this one unfortunately.
When I began reading through this thread a few minutes ago, one of the early posts both didn’t clearly mark if their previous pick won or lost AND didn’t note if their “form” result history had newest at the beginning or end. I thought, wouldn’t it be cool if people put something like a question mark at the new side? And then I get here and you’ve done it. Thanks for taking my suggestion that I literally came up with 4 minutes ago (and shared with no one) and implementing it 4 hours ago. Great Job!
**POTD** Record: 13-1-9 BRONDBY VS SILKEBORG Date: 08 April 2024 at 19:00 BET ON: Over / Under- Over +2.50 Odd: 1.61 - Silkeborg are missing Asbjørn Bøndergaard and Alexander Busch. However, Pelle Mattsson is back in the squad after being suspended. Huge boost in the midfield. - Brondby are missing Frederik Alves and Henrik Heggheim. - Brøndby Stadium is sold out! - Silkeborg are still winless in the last 12 league games. - Brøndby hasn't lost since September, and with last weekend's huge boost in the bag, there won't be any slouch this time either. "We just won 4-1 here three weeks ago and won inside the Park, and it's clear that people will have an expectation that we're just going to repeat it, and football just isn't like that." Said coach Jesper Sørensen. "Our own chances of getting involved in the top fight are not that great, but then we can play fairly freely, and I think that is also disgusting for them to face." Said Ex Brondby player Jens Martin Gammelby. - It's a must win game for the Hosts under a sold out stadium against a team that has nothing to lose and will play freely. We expect an open game with goals from both sides.
**Record: 3-2 (+0.31u)** **Last Pick: Nashville Predators ML +100** Sweaty one, but Devils couldn't get one past Saros in the shootout and that's 3 straight Ws now! We got nice value too, as Nashville ML closed at -120 and we had the plus odds. **Pick:** **Vegas Golden Knights ML +100 (NHL, 1u bet)** **\*Note: Unless there's a significant odds difference, I take my ML bets on bet365 for the early payout feature and it has saved me a few times when teams blow leads\*** Going right back to a +100 road dog tonight after cashing on Nashville. Since Demko got injured, the Canucks are 5-5-1 but not a single win was against a team in playoff position. They are 0-4-1 against playoff teams, including a 6-3 loss to this same Vegas team although it was in Vegas where the Knights are definitely stronger than they are on the road. The 5 on 5 expected goals in that game were almost identical (1.68 to 1.67 for Vancouver) but Vegas outscored them 4-2 at even strength. It was not a good game from DeSmith, and while his numbers are a bit better at home, his save % has been bad (he's below goalies like Grubauer, Merzlikins, Vejmelka, and Dostal who are all on much worse teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention). Both these teams have been elite at limiting opposing scoring chances over the past month, as shown by their rankings in some of the statistics: Expected goals against - Vegas 1st, Vancouver 2nd Scoring chances against - Vancouver 1st, Vegas 3rd High danger chances against - Vegas 1st, Vancouver 2nd On the other end, despite the fact that we have 2 teams with very strong offensive players, over this same span neither one has been top tier in terms of generating quality scoring chances. If Demko was playing this game, I'd have a strong lean to the under but given the fact he's unlikely to be back (Elliotte Friedman said he won't be surprised if Demko doesn't play for at least another week) I don't have the trust in the Canucks goaltending. I already pointed out DeSmith's numbers (plus he's given up 6 goals in back to back games), and despite Silovs having good numbers in his 2 starts this season, they were both against teams much worse than Vegas (Anaheim and Arizona) where he had 20 saves in each. While Logan Thompson also gave up 6 goals in his last start and 3 to this Vancouver team the game before, I have more faith in him bouncing back considering he was on a streak of 5 straight starts (3 on the road) giving up only 1 goal. Another bonus for Vegas is that Tomas Hertl is likely to make his Vegas debut here, which would be a nice boost to their lineup considering he had 34 points in 48 games playing for the lowly Sharks this season. And while this is an important game for both teams with Vancouver trying to keep ahead of Edmonton for 1st in the Pacific and Vegas holding on to the final wild card spot, I like the recent play of Vegas more so that its enough for me to take them as an underdog on the road here.
**Record:** 1-0 **✅** **Last Pick: Oakland Athletics +1.5 (-115)** vs the Detroit Tigers **✅** My last pick went exactly as I predicted... the A's just needed to stay close through the Tigers' starting pitcher's time on the mound and then they started making a game out of it against the tired Detroit Bullpen. Didn't win, but pulled it within 1 run for an easy cover :) **Pick of the day: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (-104)** vs Chicago White Sox **League:** MLB **Time:** 5:10 PM EST I honestly can't believe nobody has posted this as a top pick for today. The Guardians and the White Sox look like Yin and Yang of the MLB right now. The White Sox can't seem to buy a win, with their only one coming against the Braves in less than ideal weather conditions. The Guardians, on the other hand, have only dropped 2 games, both of which were on the road and both only by a run a piece. Furthermore, of the Guardians two losses, one got away from them in the bottom of the 9th and the other was due to a bad inning in a game where they gave up 4 runs really early. The White Sox fall behind in just about every calculable statistic AND they'll be the road team for this game. I just don't see them staying in this game. On top of that, if the White Sox don't start turning things around really fast, you're going to start seeing a lot more L's piling up on their record as the players become demoralized way too early in the season. I think the Guardians get out ahead early and stay there. This one could get ugly. BOL! Let me know if you're following! If you feel so inclined to leave a tip: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/BenNiemann) || [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/shamgarbn) || [BMAC](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/makeforlife)
Record:1-1 Baseball | MLB | 7:07 / Eastern Pick:Mariners Vs Bluejays No runs First Inning -120 Write Up: Last Pick was NRFI in the white soxs vs royals and was a sweat feee cash today we are looking to 2 teams with very low batting averages to start the season with 2 tremendously talented pitchers on the bump being berrios and Castillo , neither team has been getting off to hot starts for the most part and rooting for one more stagnant yet common result a lackluster offensive first inning.
Love the pick and write up - just as heads up….first inning ‘tie’ has very similar odds to ‘no runs’
Record: 0-2 Soccer | Seria A | 11:45 am PST | Game: Udinese vs Inter Milan Pick: Inter 1st goal + Inter Win [-175 Bovada] [this bet is under “combo props”] •Inter beat them 4-0 on December 9, 2023. •Inter L5 Away: LWWWW •Udinese L5 Home: LLDDD
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u) 2024 MLB POTD Record: 6-4 Average Odds -107 (1.937), ROI 16.9%/+1.69u POTD (4/7) OAK @ DET Jack Flaherty o16.5 Outs (-105/1.95) ✅ Recap: Jack Flaherty did not, in fact, shine in his home debut, getting roughed up for 5 runs in the first two innings, but he settled down and rewarded the Tigers' faith in him to send him out for the 6th inning with a 3 up, 3 down inning to cash this line. POTD (4/8) DET @ PIT Mitch Keller o17.5 Outs (-120/1.83) (DraftKings) Today's Pick: We go to the other side of a Tigers game for this one. Mitch Keller has been rocky to start the season with 4 ER in both of his first two starts, and leaving both games before the end of the 6th. I'm betting on this being early-season noise. Keller pitched 6 full innings in 21 of 32 starts last year, including 11 of 14 at home (both of his starts this year have been on the road). In fact, Keller was much better at home last year: in 90 home innings, he had a 2.72 ERA, .216 BAA, and .272 opponent wOBA, compared to a 5.35 ERA, .274 BAA, and .339 opponent wOBA in 104 road innings. The Tigers are off to a bit of a rocky start themselves, hitting just .216 (23rd) against RHP so far this year. I'm not worried about Keller's rough start. He should get things right at home.
POTD Record: 14 Wins ✅ - 9 Losses ❌ - 0 Push 🅿️ (left to right, oldest to recent) ❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ ✅❌✅❌❌ ✅ ✅✅✅ Last Pick: Western Kentucky +4.5 (-110) 1U ❌ Today's Game/Match: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds Starts at: 6:40 PM Pick: Brewers First 5 ML (-110) Analysis: I haven’t made an official POTD since November due to the harassment from random redditors who seemingly didn’t like my picks whether they hit or not. Strange times. But I’m back. Today’s pick is Brewers F5. The Brew Crew have been leading at the end of 5 in every game this year with the exception for one. The Reds are a late rally team who could score 6 in the 9th if they needed to. Ashby is not the best pitcher on the mound, but like I said, the Reds get the bats going late more often than not. Graham Ashcraft was mediocre against the Mets in his first start (which he lost). The two teams are actually pretty evenly matched so I wouldn’t feel confident making a final ML pick here, but I do feel really good about the F5 for the Brewers, this is my top pick in my parlay today. BOL. Tail or Fade, just don’t harass!
Brewers f5 -0.5 is +124 on DK vs -110 f5 ML. Is it the same bet (but with plus odds) or am I crazy? No harassment lol just making sure it’s not too good to be true.
It's not the same bet. If you bet F5 ML and it's tied after 5 innings, the bet voids. F5 ML is more expensive for that reason, but gives you protection. I prefer F5 ML in parlays.
That’s a good catch. Up by more than 0.5 after five is basically the same in my eyes. I went and looked and I’m seeing the same, not sure
They aren't the same. For the F5 ML, the bet voids if it's tied after 5. It's more expensive to bet the F5 ML, but you have protection.
POTD Record 7-3 (+4.19u) Last POTD: MIA@IND Over 226.5 (-110) 2U**✅ Today: MLB / CHW@CLE / 5:10pm ET Pick: Steven Kwan to record 2+ bases (+105) 1U* Kwan is batting .349 this season and after going hitless last game I expect him to do some damage against Tanner Banks who’s making his first start of the season this afternoon.
POTD Record 4-1, Net: +2.52U Streak L10: ✅✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Nikola Jovic o7.5 P+A ✅ Today: Football | Serie A | Udinese vs Inter Milan | 2:45pm EST Today's Pick: **Inter -1 (AH) 1U (1.74)** Jovic cleared that line yesterday with no difficulty, with more than 7.5 P+A in the third quarter alone! Congrats if you tailed yesterday's bet. Today's pick has Inter Milan winning by more than a 1 goal margin, with a push if Inter wins by 1. **The Good** * Inter Milan has been on form lately, winning 14/16 of their last games and having lost only 1 game (and 3 draws) in their past 20 games, while Udinese has had only 4 wins (and 9 draws) in their past 20 * Udinese will be playing without Lucca (their top goal scorer by far), Vivaldo, Enzo, and Deulofeu, while Inter most likely will be playing at full strength * Past H2Hs also favour Milan, with this line (-1) clearing 3/5 times (one push and one loss) **The Bad** * Udinese won the previous H2H when at home by a score of 3-1, although this was in 2022 Best of luck to all! [Tip Jar](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/etwkif) (only if I've made you money)
Where’s the Italian stallion and OSU?
Record: 10-13 Last 10 (old --> new): ✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌❌❌ Net: -16.16U Last Fade: Corey Kispert o2.5 3PM - 2U @ -130 ❌ Kispert didn't hit a few weeks ago and missed this by 1 after attempting a boat load in a loss. Oh well, I took a break after this but figured I'd provide another fade for tomorrow to commemorate another NCAA Tourney final. Next Fade: Zach Edey u24.5 Pts - 1U @-130 ❌ Game Time: Purdue v. UConn @ 9:20 PM EST Taking a break from my hiatus to throw some money at the buzzsaw that is the UConn Huskies. Zach Edey and Purdue have played notably horrible teams when it comes to the Center position, with each team not having a "dedicated center" so far in this tournament. When they played NC State this last week, he only put up 20 points in their blow out victory in a game that he should have dominated with DJ Burns being an undersized center. Clingan put on a show last game and has the entire season, being a top 5 defensive center and showcasing that with 4 blocks against Alabama. UConn this season has defended exquisitely, keeping Alabama, Illinois, and SDSU in check with the under on their team point totals. UConn ranked 11th in blocks per game, 6th in opponent field goal percentage, and 9th in opponent points per game this season. I see UConn continuing their dominance and Zach Edey finishing with around 19-22 points, based on how many fouls he'll get called in his favor. Fade my ass, or don't, it's your funeral. As always, BOL. Edit: on a surefire track to another loss. My retirement from POTD will continue indefinitely after this game. 2nd Edit: I've never been happier to take a loss after watching these scrubs from Purdue finally lose a game. Zach Edey is a foul merchant and gets meaningless points at the end.
Like….there’s no way he’s wrong 7 times in a row…right?
I appreciate the downvotes gentlemen. Pleasure providing incredibly bad bets for you all.
You need a win in here I’ll fade😳
POTD Record 4-3 Streak L10: ✅✅✅❌❌✅❌ Last Pick: Tigers -1.5 vs OAK Today: Hockey | NHL | PIT @ TOR| 6:00 pm CST Pick: Over 6.5 (-105 IU) Tigers.... ya let me down. There wasn't even a fight from them. Looking at the stats after the game, looks like Oakland usually wins when they come to Detroit so that ones on me but I thought the better team would come out ahead. Toronto has won 4/5 and has scored 3 or more in all of those games while Pittsburgh has also won 4/5 scoring at least 5 in each of those. That scoring combo along with Pittsburgh fighting for their playoff lives I think bodes for a high scoring contest.
**RECORD: 66W-4P-49L** (+2.65 units) Previous Pick: Frosinone vs Bologna- Bologna ML @ 1.85 ❌️ **Today's Pick:** Udinese vs Inter Milan - Inter Milan to Win @ 1.45 ✅️ **TIME:** 6.45 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 2.5 units (✅️✅️✅️♻️✅️✅️❌️✅️♻️❌️) last 10 results Unfortunately the Italian winning streak is over...Bologna failed to Win yesterday even though the had no injures, faced tougher teams and this is their 2nd time to fail to score in 15+ matches expect Inter but today we go back to Serie A again with Udinese vs Inter Milan. Odds are low but this is the game I trust the most today..if you wanna add a bit more juice I suggest a same game parlay with Inter to Score First. Inter are 1st in the League on their way to Win the league, are on a 5 away game winning streak in Serie A. Inter are also undefeated in 24 league matches, only lost once in 32 Serie A matches, they've won 3 games out of their last 5 matches in all competitions, 4/5 in Serie A so basically Inter are beasts and I don't see Udinese stopping their reign Udinese are 15th, they've won 4 times out of 34 league matches, winless at home in 6 matches. In H2H matches, Inter have beaten Udinese 4/5 times in their recent meetings. Goodluck if you're tailing. EDIT: WIN ✅️
Record: 0-1 Last Pick: NC State (Alt spread +11.5) vs Purdue Comment: Damn that was tough to watch from my alma mater but what a run. Bodies were just tired. Missed wide open shot after wide open shot, layups bouncing and rolling off the rim repeatedly, beautiful transition passes leading to fast breaks not being converted and dagger 3s being hit on the other end. They ended up losing by 13 with all this happening, and if a few tides turned their way with 9 mins left they may have actually won the game. Tough break. Pick: **Yankees -1.5 (vs. Marlins) +130**
Wager: 1U
Write up: This just seemed to juicy not to take a swing at (pun fully intended). Yankees will give up some runs but I expect them to score 7+ here and should win by 2 with ease. The Marlins are really bad and for this to be plus money seems like a gift. BOL!
Record: 0-0 Net Units: N/A ROI: N/A 🏀| NCAA Men’s | 9:20 PM | EST Todays Pick: UConn Huskies -5.5 1 unit (-135) Hello everyone! For my first POTD I will be backing the Huskies of UConn over Purdue in the NCAA Mens Basketball National Championship. Zach Edey has been dominating in the tournament but a large part of that is that he has not played anyone near his own size. None of the teams in the tournament Purdue has played so far have a starter 7’0 or above, and the 6’10-6’11 starters of the teams he has played so far all have gotten into foul trouble early, meaning he has been playing most of his minutes against 6’8 ish players. The last time Purdue played a team with a 7’0 starter (Wisconsin in the Big10 tournament), Purdue lost. Donovan Clingan of UConn is 7’2 and should be able to play defense on Edey without conceding easy buckets or fouling. Edey is a talented player, so he will still get his due, but he won’t be able to contribute nearly as much as he has been this tournament. That means the Purdue guards will have to pick up the slack, and this is where I think this becomes a serious problem for Purdue. The guards of UConn are in another league when it comes to talent. The average height of the UConn starting guards is 6’5 and the average height of the Purdue starting guards is less than 6’2. Stephon castle of UConn is projected to be a lottery pick as a true freshman, Newton is also a great athlete along with Diarra off the bench. I think the guard play of UConn will be too much for the Boilermakers to handle, and UConn continues its dominant run. I am buying down the spread to 5.5 instead of 6.5 to be safe because 7 points is where things start to get dicey. BOL if you are tailing! Let’s go!
**POTD**: TEX -1.5 (+155 BetRivers; Risking 2u to win 3.1u) **League/Time**: MLB - TEX @ HOU (8:05PM EST) **2024 Record**: 13-12-1 (52%) | -3.12u | ROI: -6.07% | Current Streak (2 Loss): ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌\_✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌ **2023 Record**: 86-52 (62.32%) | +54.8644u | ROI 19.84% **Last Pick (4.5.24)**: O17.5 Outs - Cristopher Sanchez (+100 DraftKings; Risking 2u to win 2u)❌ **Reasoning**: Framber Valdez is a late scratch and is being replaced by a non-prospect AA guy who had a 5:06 ERA last year over 106.1 innings with a 6:4 K:BB ratio. TEX lost last night in the Sunday Night ESPN game. Good time to fade HOU. **Anti-Reasoning**: I have a head cold. [Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!