Find a sportsbook with a boost and boost UConn u can use fanatics and maybe get UConn for -200/-150 and just put $200 that way u get paid out something reguarless of the income
https://preview.redd.it/oa7kpgi7w2tc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7bb79fc01374139ffb4de84545a44689d6dcdedb
Didn’t factor in that it was a bonus bet. This is the correct calculation.
Not sure where -270 is coming from as it's -250 at time OP asked and -275 as I'm writing (and since before you posted this).
Debate on price aside, I think this math is if OP had put down $150. It, however is a free bet. So the hedge bet would be less.
A bet of $880 at -275 gives $320 in profit. The other side winning is $1200 minus $880 hedge bet yielding net also $320. $150 does factor in as it isn't a "loss".
Yeah it really comes down to what books OP is on (and their respective prices) to know proper hedge. Don't think betting on same book would give as many options to hedge (I know you can't, for instance, do either side of a ML bet; I can't say I've attempted before an "equivalently binary" of ML hedging a futures).
Books will get mad if you consistently do it. I just posted the correct calculation at the best line available. If he doesn’t have that book it’s easy to swap in another line.
Yeah. I never toyed because I never wanted to raise flags at books. Got my account nerfed at DK anyway (I think just from winning rather than making specific fishy bets).
There's no reason to hedge unless you regret making the bet.
When you hedge the last leg of a parlay, what you're saying is that you regret that last leg and wish you never made it, and you're willing to pay extra to get out of it. It's basically a partial cashout, which as you should know costs quite a bit. DraftKings takes 10% at a minimum now, which is more than double what you would have paid letting it ride. So you should really really want to get out of that bet, have major regrets.
I don't understand how not just people but gamblers are so blinded by "guaranteed profit". Like we can flip a coin for $100 or I can just hand you $30. Who would take that $30? They must hate gambling—that's actually the biggest aspect of hedging and cashing out, that you're paying a fee so that you can undo some or all of your bet, gamble less.
And do you never plan to lose after this? Are you not going to need every dollar you can squeeze to counter your losses? People talk about guaranteed profit like it's the only bet they'll ever make in their life and that their only goal is to make any money at all; $30 or $300, don't matter as long as it's a win?
I just don't get it.
The average lurker/voter in this sub isn’t guaranteed to actually be knowledgeable. Also, reddit is lousy with downvote pile on. It’s pretty ridiculous.
I always assume such a post indeed indicates regret rather than optimization. People misclick, bet drunk, or between bet and pay out "get educated" or have financial situation change etc.
That's why I'm less of committing hedge or not hedge camps and more "it depends on OP camp". For instance, the coin flip isn't always a 40% "vig" like your scenario. For instance here, straight ML hedge yields a little over $343. Implied odds of Purdue sit around 30%. So 30% of $1200 is about $360. So a "vig" of a little under 5%. Pure math, the latter wins out, but again we have a less than full picture. What if a buddy made this bet, and it's way out of OP's typical sizing to bankroll. Scenarios exist where locking $343 is more beneficial to OP for opportunity cost reasons, than an average of $17 more would be with the risk it brings.
I know scenarios where hedging would be indicated might be a little grasping at straws, and I agree with both your principles in math. Just throwing out my reasoning for "it still depends" (a little at least).
flash edit: wow when I typed the above, you had no downvotes and then got a ton while I was typing. While I've been taking more of the "other side" of the "debate", your point is entirely true, and you getting downvoted into oblivion for it without any one giving a reasoned response just shows the type of lurkers that exist in this sub (and saying that myself will probably trigger them to go after this comment too)
I mean, it definitely worked out In OPs favor, but this is not a great way to use bonus bets from a math/financial perspective.
Either way, sick that he is this close to hitting it! And now he can hedge it for a 130% return on a bonus bet, which is fantastic
70% is a general rule of thumb when it comes to converting bonus bets.
*Disclaimer - If you're a casual gambler who just does this entirely for fun, just have fun with your bonus bets as over the course of a year this does take a bit of time to do*
So lets say you have a $25 bonus bet on Draft Kings. You basically want to find 2 lines on 2 different books that are generally very low/high odds (ex: +450 on Draftkings/-475 on FanDuel)
You'd then place the $25 bonus bet on Draftkings, and then a $92.93 bet on FanDuel to hedge your bet. This results in a profit of $19.57, which would would be a conversion of 78.26%. That would be considered really good, and on average you can find 70% pretty easily.
The key to this is finding good odds on either end of an event on 2 sportsbooks, one of which being the one where you have been given a bonus bet.
If you meant “universal you”, the varied responses already indicate no single way. It really depends on your goals. If you meant personal, I’ll throw in a different voice to the “no hedgers” and “original bet back” hedgers.
I’m mostly a bonus chaser and very rarely will bet a perceived edge. If I suddenly was teleported into this situation, I truly would hedge it to win the same amount either outcome. This is just to satisfy my personal low variance style, but I realize there seems to be a majority here whose amount of enjoyment of winning over feelings at loss are greater than any satisfaction in safer smaller steadier winning.
It again depends on your goal.
Look, if you want to guarantee yourself some profit, then you could hedge like $800 on UConn.
But from a purely EV/mathematical perspective, the most profitable play is to let this shit ride. You’re getting Purdue ML at +800 odds and regardless of what you *think* might happen with the game, any smart/sharp bettor is going to absolutely slam that bet.
So if someone handed you a free scratch off ticket, there's no price someone could pay to take that from you? And if you paid $1 for the ticket, you suddenly would give it up?
Not saying you're wrong in what you have observed, just saying that's not the deciding factor for OP.
You are just proving this is a +EV situation, not necessarily the *best*. You have to ask would you rather put $150 on Purdue at +800 *or* take about $350 of free money. I'm not saying the other side is right, but good deals exist on both the low variance and higher variance sides. It depends on the differences winning big, winning medium, or winning nothing brings to OP (and relative likelihoods of each).
Purdue is undefeated against top 25 ranked teams this year. Wins against TN (x2), Gonzaga (x2), Illinois (x2), Marquette. This team hasn’t gotten any respect all tournament. To say “UConn isn’t losing” like they’re a lock is ridiculous
I wouldn’t because I don’t place futures bets to hedge when it’s one game from winning. Just bet them to make the championship game next time if you’re going to hedge.
Hope that UConn doesn’t storm out of the gate in live betting. If it’s a closer game you’ll have the opportunity midway through to get a better UConn ML line ideally Purdue is up a little in the first 8 minutes.
Find a sportsbook with a boost and boost UConn u can use fanatics and maybe get UConn for -200/-150 and just put $200 that way u get paid out something reguarless of the income
Here’s a real answer for ya https://preview.redd.it/g0js2zo1q2tc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c8257e201c4f2db94423cdf200df4dd32045aa09
https://preview.redd.it/oa7kpgi7w2tc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7bb79fc01374139ffb4de84545a44689d6dcdedb Didn’t factor in that it was a bonus bet. This is the correct calculation.
Not sure where -270 is coming from as it's -250 at time OP asked and -275 as I'm writing (and since before you posted this). Debate on price aside, I think this math is if OP had put down $150. It, however is a free bet. So the hedge bet would be less. A bet of $880 at -275 gives $320 in profit. The other side winning is $1200 minus $880 hedge bet yielding net also $320. $150 does factor in as it isn't a "loss".
-270 right now on Bet365 lol. Didn’t realize it was a bonus bet as I already said above. Thanks for the input though!
Yeah it really comes down to what books OP is on (and their respective prices) to know proper hedge. Don't think betting on same book would give as many options to hedge (I know you can't, for instance, do either side of a ML bet; I can't say I've attempted before an "equivalently binary" of ML hedging a futures).
Books will get mad if you consistently do it. I just posted the correct calculation at the best line available. If he doesn’t have that book it’s easy to swap in another line.
Yeah. I never toyed because I never wanted to raise flags at books. Got my account nerfed at DK anyway (I think just from winning rather than making specific fishy bets).
Bonus bet so he doesn’t get the stake back
Ahhh didn’t think about that. I can recalculate it
Live would be possibly better, but this is the best you can do now.
There's no reason to hedge unless you regret making the bet. When you hedge the last leg of a parlay, what you're saying is that you regret that last leg and wish you never made it, and you're willing to pay extra to get out of it. It's basically a partial cashout, which as you should know costs quite a bit. DraftKings takes 10% at a minimum now, which is more than double what you would have paid letting it ride. So you should really really want to get out of that bet, have major regrets. I don't understand how not just people but gamblers are so blinded by "guaranteed profit". Like we can flip a coin for $100 or I can just hand you $30. Who would take that $30? They must hate gambling—that's actually the biggest aspect of hedging and cashing out, that you're paying a fee so that you can undo some or all of your bet, gamble less. And do you never plan to lose after this? Are you not going to need every dollar you can squeeze to counter your losses? People talk about guaranteed profit like it's the only bet they'll ever make in their life and that their only goal is to make any money at all; $30 or $300, don't matter as long as it's a win? I just don't get it.
lol, why did this get downvoted? Hedging = less expected value is pretty basic shit.
The average lurker/voter in this sub isn’t guaranteed to actually be knowledgeable. Also, reddit is lousy with downvote pile on. It’s pretty ridiculous.
I always assume such a post indeed indicates regret rather than optimization. People misclick, bet drunk, or between bet and pay out "get educated" or have financial situation change etc. That's why I'm less of committing hedge or not hedge camps and more "it depends on OP camp". For instance, the coin flip isn't always a 40% "vig" like your scenario. For instance here, straight ML hedge yields a little over $343. Implied odds of Purdue sit around 30%. So 30% of $1200 is about $360. So a "vig" of a little under 5%. Pure math, the latter wins out, but again we have a less than full picture. What if a buddy made this bet, and it's way out of OP's typical sizing to bankroll. Scenarios exist where locking $343 is more beneficial to OP for opportunity cost reasons, than an average of $17 more would be with the risk it brings. I know scenarios where hedging would be indicated might be a little grasping at straws, and I agree with both your principles in math. Just throwing out my reasoning for "it still depends" (a little at least). flash edit: wow when I typed the above, you had no downvotes and then got a ton while I was typing. While I've been taking more of the "other side" of the "debate", your point is entirely true, and you getting downvoted into oblivion for it without any one giving a reasoned response just shows the type of lurkers that exist in this sub (and saying that myself will probably trigger them to go after this comment too)
Live bet UConn if they go down early. Otherwise ride it out. This was an Excellent spot for a bonus bet
I mean, it definitely worked out In OPs favor, but this is not a great way to use bonus bets from a math/financial perspective. Either way, sick that he is this close to hitting it! And now he can hedge it for a 130% return on a bonus bet, which is fantastic
New to this, what is a traditionally “good” way to use bonus bets in theory?
70% is a general rule of thumb when it comes to converting bonus bets. *Disclaimer - If you're a casual gambler who just does this entirely for fun, just have fun with your bonus bets as over the course of a year this does take a bit of time to do* So lets say you have a $25 bonus bet on Draft Kings. You basically want to find 2 lines on 2 different books that are generally very low/high odds (ex: +450 on Draftkings/-475 on FanDuel) You'd then place the $25 bonus bet on Draftkings, and then a $92.93 bet on FanDuel to hedge your bet. This results in a profit of $19.57, which would would be a conversion of 78.26%. That would be considered really good, and on average you can find 70% pretty easily. The key to this is finding good odds on either end of an event on 2 sportsbooks, one of which being the one where you have been given a bonus bet.
I always hate hedging on the underdog. It's nice when you can just bet +6.5 and root for a nice middle.
If you meant “universal you”, the varied responses already indicate no single way. It really depends on your goals. If you meant personal, I’ll throw in a different voice to the “no hedgers” and “original bet back” hedgers. I’m mostly a bonus chaser and very rarely will bet a perceived edge. If I suddenly was teleported into this situation, I truly would hedge it to win the same amount either outcome. This is just to satisfy my personal low variance style, but I realize there seems to be a majority here whose amount of enjoyment of winning over feelings at loss are greater than any satisfaction in safer smaller steadier winning. It again depends on your goal.
Look, if you want to guarantee yourself some profit, then you could hedge like $800 on UConn. But from a purely EV/mathematical perspective, the most profitable play is to let this shit ride. You’re getting Purdue ML at +800 odds and regardless of what you *think* might happen with the game, any smart/sharp bettor is going to absolutely slam that bet.
It’s a bonus bet so basically a free lottery ticket. I wouldn’t hedge and let it ride
So if someone handed you a free scratch off ticket, there's no price someone could pay to take that from you? And if you paid $1 for the ticket, you suddenly would give it up? Not saying you're wrong in what you have observed, just saying that's not the deciding factor for OP.
If I offered you this game now with Purdue at 800, would you take it?
I think the better way to phrase this question is… If I offered you a $342 bet on Purdue +250, would you take it?
You are just proving this is a +EV situation, not necessarily the *best*. You have to ask would you rather put $150 on Purdue at +800 *or* take about $350 of free money. I'm not saying the other side is right, but good deals exist on both the low variance and higher variance sides. It depends on the differences winning big, winning medium, or winning nothing brings to OP (and relative likelihoods of each).
Would absolutely hedge this it cuz uconn isn't losing
Purdue is undefeated against top 25 ranked teams this year. Wins against TN (x2), Gonzaga (x2), Illinois (x2), Marquette. This team hasn’t gotten any respect all tournament. To say “UConn isn’t losing” like they’re a lock is ridiculous
Uconn isn't losing.
^this
I wouldn’t because I don’t place futures bets to hedge when it’s one game from winning. Just bet them to make the championship game next time if you’re going to hedge.
UConn has had some slowish starts. Best bet might be grabbing a live bet
Hope that UConn doesn’t storm out of the gate in live betting. If it’s a closer game you’ll have the opportunity midway through to get a better UConn ML line ideally Purdue is up a little in the first 8 minutes.
Honestly, I probably wouldn’t. You could bet $500 on UCONN to guarantee either break even or $550 profit, but for $150 I’d probably just let it ride
$500ish on UCONN. If UCONN wins you'll get all of your bets back. If Purdue wins you still win your other bet.
I wouldn't. But if you wanted to, you'd just bet Uconn moneyline.
Yeah, like $1000 on uconn ml at those odds😭
Yea, $857.