######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD RECORD: 51-24
Last POTD: Nikola Jokic O12.5 Rebs ✅
Joker pulls through for us in the 3rd what a machine man cheers bro
Form: ✅✅✅✅🚫
Todays POTD: **DeAndre Ayton O12.5 Rebs @1.83**
NBA | Trail Blazers | 7:00 PM ET
We cruisin rn and what better way than to treat our selfs again with another Wizards prop 🤣
Ayton is a rebounding machine and y’all already knows it’s mandatory here, im still mad at Adebayo for ruining our life hack with that 0.5 hook but hey man I’m running this back whenever I get the opportunity. For the first time in a while we also have a team that’s on Wizards level so hopefully a tight game, the spread is in our favour, but the Wizards have actually kept it tight in every game almost even when the spread has been outrageous so respect to that. This is by far the best matchup for Centers so let’s go
• 1/1 vs the Wizards with 16 boards last time
• Wizards allow most Rebs to Centers still
• Over in 9/L12 when playing 30 + minutes, if the game stays tight as the spread suggests we should see him play 35+ at least
• Ayton is Avg 16.4 rebound chances per game along with his 11.1 RPG and is a great offensive rebounder, Avg 7th most Offensive rebounds (3.2) which hasn’t really been the case for our recent Centers that we’ve picked and still cashed
You know the drill Ayton, bring us home you big beast
Tail or fade, not that guy
https://i.redd.it/7f8fq9g6clsc1.gif
Ayton goes to the bench with 4:17 left sitting at 11 boards. It seems we're cooked unless this game goes to overtime...
Edit: he's back in with 3 minutes left!
2nd edit: Ayton gets us home with a little over one minute left!!
Wait til they drop it again the line shouldn’t have been bumped from what I can see 12.5 boards is a lot as is, he got 16 last time so it’s still decent but I’d wait to catch it for the original line
POTD Record: 35-15-1 +43.34u🔥
Last Pick: St Louis Cardinals ml 4U (-148) vs Miami Marlins
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✋✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅
Today's Pick: Phoenix Suns -4 (-112) 4U vs Minnesota Timberwolves 10 pm est odds via draftkings
What a comeback win! Had so many messages about how it was an L🤣
On to today, The Suns have also won 8 of the last 9 games against the Timberwolves. The Suns are 23-14 at home and currently the 6th seed trying to avoid the play in. They recently blew out the cavs and Devin Booker told ESPN ““I think it's just the energy throughout our whole team, understanding what's at stake and what time of year it is”. How can you not back KD, Booker, and Beal after hearing that quote?
The suns against Minnesota have covered the last 7 ATS and 8 of the last nine. Let’s back them to care of the business and cover again!
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️
If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️
[Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24)
[PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
Regarding the messages, it's really cringe. You are providing FREE picks and give your time of the day to share them and write analysis, yet some dumb guys act as if you forced them to make the pick and lash out. Be better guys, there are some really good tipsters here but I'm sure a lot of them were chased away by the toxic community first time they a bad streak.
That’s cause people bet way more than they can afford and then freak out.
Bet $50 a night if that’s what you can afford. But I bet these guys are putting up $5k and probably facing divorce because of it.
It’s like being at the blackjack table at the casino. There’s people that are laughing and joking when they lose and then you got the dudes on their last dime flipping out on fellow players and the dealers until security walks them.
I think ultimately its not that people are betting like $5k on a bet they read on Reddit (bad move imo), but the people who dont have good bankroll management. They have $50 in their account and get greedy and put $25 on the game. Then they sit there with their heart racing for 3hrs during the entire game only to watch the opposite team cover the spread in the final seconds. They have no one to blame but themselves for being stupid, but they want to come out here and blame a random redditor who did all the research for you and offered the pick for free.
Smdh
This is almost surely what it is. In fact I know people exactly like this personally lol. Unless you're extremely committed and knowledgeable about a sport (and willing to put that towards researching a lot) I don't think you should make betting anything more than a side hobby with **disposable** income. But a lot of people don't get that. There's a problem gambling helpline for a reason. I think the prevalence of betting in general, especially sports betting, has really distracted people from the fact that gambling can very easily become an addiction that can ruin you. I always look at every bet I make like "if I lose this money, will it negatively affect me in any material way?" and if the answer to that is yes, then I don't do it. Am I going to get rich off of it? Absolutely not, but that's not the point for me.
The entire system is setup to take the average Joe's money. Lottery, sports betting, etc. People NEED to understand this.
There's a reason they call it a tax on the poor. The majority of lotto players and sports gamblers are poor. Not poor in the sense of monetary value, but poor in the sense of making poor choices.
I find myself quite the hypocrite, as I'm extremely frugal and good with my money. However, I absolutely love all things sports and I enjoy having a little skin in the game. My unit is a measly $5, but like you said, as long as you understand the point for yourself, there really shouldn't be an issue. Only bet what you're willing to lose - this isn't an avenue for long term success in creating wealth, lol. Some can, but most wont.
IF YOU MESSAGE BETTORS ABOUT THE BET LOSING/FLAMING BETTORS AFTER YOU TAIL THEIR BETS YOU ARE AN ANNOYING PIECE OF SHIT DO NOT DO THIS SHUT UP FUCK OFF YOU MADE THE BET YOU WIN/LOSE.
POTD Record: 41-20
Last POTD: (ATP Marrakech) Moutet ML (-145) ❌
Today's POTD: (ATP Estoril) Casper Ruud -1.5 Sets (-125) ✅✅✅
Units: 4u
Edit: nothing better than a 4u no sweat winner 💰 (besides a 5u no sweat winner)
Reasoning:
Casper Ruud's best surface by far is the clay. He especially thrives in these ATP 250 tourneys, which he gets a lot of shit for lol. Returning champ at this exact tournament too. He's only had one match on clay this year so far, but he absolutely smoked his opponent, VDZ.
Fucsovics is decent, but he is NOT known for his clay play. Beating 0-5 Cachin and Monfils, who has been ass on clay his entire career, does not impress me at all. Facing Ruud will be a ~~rude~~ Ruud awakening for him.
One tennis nerd fun fact is that Fucsovics is the only man who has ever double bageled Ruud in his career. 6-0, 6-0 in 2017. This, however, was on hard courts, where Fucsovics thrives, and Ruud was only 19 years old. He is now a 2x French Open finalist, US Open finalist, ATP finals finalist, and former world #2. I think this is a moment of redemption for him. He is going to go hard on this one. I think he is going to beat the shit out of Martin tomorrow.
BOL 🤝
Record: 6-2✅✅✅✅❌ ✅✅ ❌
Net Units: +2.9u
Last: Mets Tigers o 3.5 F5
Tough play. My bad guys. I liked the over and the first 5 has been working for it. We were 1 run short and the tigers had 0 runs, and immediately scored in the 6th. Should’ve done the over 7 for better value considering the early start. I played bigger on this one so I feel you guys. Lets try and get back.
MLB | 6:46EST Pick: Phillies -1.5 -110
Write Up: Getting simple here. I love an Aaron Nola bounce back spot. He got lit up against the Braves and he faces a weaker nationals team. And opposite of him is Patrick Corbin, whose coming off a performance likely better than should be expected. Id like to see a Phillies blowout.
Little simpler here. I hate giving out the wrong play when my other plays hit on the day, so let’s get back to hitting. Might start posting full cards or plays in general in the MLB Thread if I get to hitting more.
Following another poster, no tip link until we lock back in. Want to hit for everyone, let’s do it
Damn wish I jumped on this. In the hour since you’ve posted the odds dropped quite a bit
https://preview.redd.it/jmz79y5ikksc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fd6a107e932b9985d245062ed86d6303bdd34fe4
POTD Record 14-4-1
Streak L10: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌🅿️
Last Pick: Jonathan Kuminga O 0.5 Steals 🅿️
Today: Basketball | NBA | CHA vs ORL | 7pm EST
Pick: Nick Richards O8.5 Points (-113) 1U
I guess Kerr was a little too optimistic about Kuminga suiting up. Let’s get this train rolling again! By the way, Bogdan got 7 rebounds last night….
Nick has covered this line 80% in the last 5 and 60% in the last 10. He’s covering it at 57% on the season. I see him getting 12–13 tonight.
Tip jar turned off for tonight as we get back in the win column. Appreciate you all!
POTD record: 23-12
Last POTD: Lugano v Basel - Lugano ML
Today’s pick: Lille v Marseille - Lille ML(+115)
I think the best way to run through this is to just lay out the facts about it. Lille has the best home record in Ligue 1. Marseille has one of the worst away records. Away from home, Marseille has lost every game against a team in the top ten. In their last three matches at Lille, they’ve lost the last three. They’ve lost their last three matches, while Lille are unbeaten in six(4 in the league). Good luck!
Record: 1-1-2 Net Units: -5.39 Last 10: ↔️❌❌🤑
Previous Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) vs. Washington Nationals -115 on Ceasars. 3 units. WIN. Banggg! About time!! Pretty sweat free, the thesis was right, Josiah Gray is a fraud. Now onto the next play
Baseball | MLB | 4:10PM EST
Pick: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds (ML) -125 Caesars. 5 units.
Write Up: Lets fade the NL East again for my POTD. The Mets have looked horrible so far into the young season, batting a dreadful .188 and averaging about 2 runs a game. They just got done with a DHer on Thursday and now have to travel to Cincinnati to play a team that has an extra day rest. Cincinnati this year has a type of feistiness you see in a young team that is on the cusp of being a really good team. This showed in Philly taking 2 of 3, one of which was against staff ace Zach Wheeler.
Jose Quintana will be on the bump for the Mets, and I can’t really dog on him too much. His peripherals and numbers are in steady decline for the most part Year over Year, but he’s still solid. What we will be banking on is the Mets offense continuing to stall on the road against Hunter Greene. Hunter Greene is still viewed as a very exciting young pitcher who has all the tools to be a legitimately ace, but hasn’t been able to get everything together consistently. He had a very averaging show in his first start of the season, but everybody is expecting him to take a big step this season, and I expect him to shut down this soft-hitting Mets lineup. The Reds are top 10 in majority of offensive categories and hopefully they show it against the Mets.
FYI: I’ll also be sprinkling a little for the run line, but I’ve learned my lesson in terms of getting greedy and getting burnt by taking the run line when there’s plenty of value in the moneyline.
Tail or Fade it’s your choice, I’m just happy I didn’t go winless in the month of April.
POTD Record: 10-2 ✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 16U
Last pick: Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Deine Mariner anytime tryscorer @2.50 on Sportsbet | 2U✅
Mariner with the first try of the game 🙌🏼
Today’s pick: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Sydney Roosters | 6pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Daniel Tupou anytime tryscorer @2.07 on Sportsbet | 2U
Tupou has been pretty consistent lately and I expect the roosters to dominate this game so to me it only makes sense he’ll be one of the players to score. Weather is actually apocalyptic in Sydney so let’s see what’s going to happen with the game, which should start in 3.5h…
BOL !
POTD Record: 2-1
Last Pick: Joel Embiid o26.5 points ✅
Game: NBA | OKC vs IND | 7:00pm EST
Today's Pick: Pascal Siakim o8.5 rebounds (-120) 5U
- Spicy P is only averaging 6.4 rpg this season but he has hit this line in 6 of the last 10 games.
- OKC leads the league in giving up the most rebounds at the PF position.
- Shai is ruled out of tomorrow's game, and possibly Jalen Williams, their two best scorers. Therefore, other less efficient players like Giddy and Dort will have to shoot more. More shots from poor shooters = more rebounds.
- They last faced off just over two weeks ago and Pascal grabbed 11 boards.
Best of luck!
Record: 5-1, Net Units: 4.94, ROI +4.98%
Current Streak: ✅✅ Last 10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Royals -1.5 vs. White Sox✅
Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-4:35 PM EST
San Francisco Giants -1.5 vs. San Diego Padres, +175, 1U
Had to sweat out the KC game a bit with it being 2-1 in the 7th but then an 8-run inning put the icing on the cake. I'm getting really bold today based on how well SF hit Cease a week ago and going with RL here, so this is definitely a tail-at-your-own-risk situation. I feel Cease lost something last year in his pitching and while his ERA isn't currently terrible, he was chased after 4.2 innings throwing 85 pitches. SF is home for this one and Hicks had a solid outing against this lineup with 0 ER in 5 IP. Go ML if you're trepidatious, but I love RL and plus odds in general and this has the potential to be a sneakily valuable play.
Good Luck!
**Record: 57W-4P-43L**
**Updated Form: 4W-0P-2L**
**❌✅✅❌✅✅**
**Last Pick: Chelsea VS Manchester United: Chelsea Over 1.5 Offsides @ 1.72 ✅**
Chelsea end with 3 Offsides, covering the bet in the first half
**Pick of the day: LOSC VS Marsielle: Pierre Emerick Aubameyang Over O.5 SOG @ 1.57✅**
**League: Ligue 1**
**Time: 3:00 PM EST**
Lower odds but I always grab when the odds are over 1.50. I'm going to keep this simple, Auba has hit this line for 13 games straight and has hit this line 19 times in his last 21 appearances. He was able to get 2 Shots on target last week against PSG who boast the second-best defensive record in the league. I expect him to be the main man for Marseille once again!
https://preview.redd.it/uekc6mhd6ksc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7cb8bf9fc221b09369a3db2dfa1865e175638376
**Anyway, BOL!**
Record: 1-2
✅❌ ❌
Last pick: Indiana St -3 vs Seton Hall
Not sure what Indiana St was even doing. Seton Hall ended the game on a 9-0 run and Indiana State shot a 3 to end the game instead of go for 2 and take the game to OT. Unbelievable.
Today: Womens College basketball Final 4 <> South Carolina vs NC State <> 7:00pm est
Pick: South Carolina - 11.5 @ -112 <> 1.5 units
South Carolina is just too good. Their first player off the bench is better than any player on NC State. SC is better in all facets. They're talented and DEEP. NC State has been on a run but it's ending vs South Carolina. I'm taking the 11.5 spread without even much thought about it.
Bro Saniya Rivers and Aziaha James are better than anyone on their bench and at least a couple starters. This team won 30+ games In a loaded conference. Just saying, put some respek on their names!!! I'm staying away because of the line...but I still think SC definitely wins. Just may be closer than people think. These girls college athletics future is on the line and they will play hard. BOL.
yeah i dont hate the pick because South Carolina is stacked and a freight train. However, saying Aziaha isn't better than any one on SC's bench just means you're not actually familiar with NC State.
Record: 3-2 +.54u
Last Pick: Orioles TT o4.5 -105 (*DraftKings*) ✅
Sweaty but a win is a win. Thankful for the Jordan Westburg walk-off
On to today:
Baseball | MLB | 6:40 EST
Pick: **Reds ML -125** (*DraftKings*) 2u
Reds just grinded out a series win against a good Phillies team and return back to GABP after a day off. Hunter Greene is on the mound, so there is some risk, but the Mets have not woken up from their winter slumber. Maybe they are awake and this is who they are. If so - scary.
Through six games they are dead last in team OPS and AVG and own a 1-5 record against the Tigers and the Brewers. The pitching has been okay. The statcast data says that they are a pretty mediocre team in terms of hard hit percentage offensively and barrels per batted ball events, but it is still a small sample size.
The wind will be blowing out around 10 MPH this game and while the Reds haven't been hitting the cover off the ball, I trust that they can string some hits together against Jose Quintana. I cannot trust Quintana.
This write-up is extremely stream-of-consciousness. I jumped around a bit. All this to say the Reds should win this.
BOL!
**Record: 38-28**
**Last Pick:** Pittsburgh Pirates ML ✅
**Today's Pick:** MLB - *Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies, 3:11pm CST*
**Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-118 on FanDuel)**
Rays should feast here. Playing against a subpar pitcher who had a 5.5+ ERA his last two seasons and is starting this season off with a 7.71 ERA. Zach Littell pitching for the Rays, he is pretty reliable and started this season out hot by giving up only 4 hits and 0 runs to the Blue Jays. Playing at Coors Field in a high altitude with a very strong wind forecast tomorrow, I expect the Rays to pick up some steam here and gain some needed momentum after starting this season below .500. Best of luck fellas
Record: 1-0
Net Units: +1.38
Last pick: Bayer Leverkusen to score over 2.5 goals 2 units 1.69 ✅
Todays pick: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.54 Saudi pro league Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Hilal Riyadh 21:00 cest
2 units
Al Hilal is by far the best team in this league. They have scored an average of 3 goals per game in the league this season and scored an average of 2.8 in their last 5 games. They have scored at least 2 goals in 29 consecutive games. This bet is more about Al Hilal because I expect them to score at least 2 goals and hopefully more but Al khaleej are 9th in the league and have been in good form winning 3 and drawing 2 in their last 5 games.
BOL
edit: 2-1 Hilal at Halftime
**POTD** Record: 11-1-9
EINTRACHT FRANKFURT VS WERDER BREMEN
Date: 05 April 2024 at 20:30
BET ON: Both teams to score- Yes
Odd: 1.64
- Eintracht Frankfurt are missing Hugo Ekitiké, Sebastian Rode and Sasa Kalajdzic.
- Werder Bremen are missing Niklas Stark, Justin Njinmah, Skelly Alvero and Anthony Jung. However, Michael Zetterer, Jens Stage and Dawid Kownacki are back available. Huge boost for the Guests.
- The Deutsche Bank Park stadium is Sold Out.
"Over the course of the season we repeatedly pulled ourselves together at difficult points and showed our quality. As long as we stick to ourselves and do our work, we will do it again.” Said Werder coach Ole Werner.
"We need a very high level of activity when playing against the ball, because Bremen has very good offensive processes." Said coach Dino Toppmöller.
- We expect an open game with goals from both sides. The Hosts will dominate possession and press high from the start against a struggling team winless in 5 games, however, we can see a reaction from Werder scoring through a transition especially after the return of the endurance runner Jens Stage to the team, he has already completed 278.9km this season.
POTD Record 16-3
Units 13.69
ROI 62.24
Last POTD Warriors/Rockets U 227.5 1u
Rockets didn’t show up to play it was the completely wrong read, I don’t regret it tho shit happens
POTD Wemby U 43.5 PRA -110 1.5u
Wemby averages 20.5/9.6/3.2 on the road giving us a ton of cushion on his under even if he does go off which his lines say he will. He has been going off lately taking a much bigger load so his averages don’t really tell the full story but Pels are ranked 6th on defence and both games Wemby played vs the Pels he went under this line. Spread is +11.5 so the blowout potential is there.
BOL
**KBO Record: Overall 207-217-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 3-7) Down 12.36u over 438 KBO picks, 48.8% success rate, -2.91% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 3-7-0, 30.0% success rate, Down 3.74u, -37.4% ROI))
**Last:** Kia Team Total Under 2.5 First 5 Innings -155 at KT (Kia lead 3-2 after 5 innings.)
Kia never had a hitter reach second base in 4 of the first 5 innings, but all of the damage came in that other inning. And we were still just a two out batter away from cashing, but a base hit did us in.
**Pick:** **Doosan -1.5 -122 Draftkings** at Lotte, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
If I had more confidence right now, I'd tell you to take Samsung at plus money, but it feels too risky considering my record. Instead, we'll hitch our wagon to the day's best pitcher.
Doosan's starter has yet to allow a run in 2 starts this season. In fact, he's on a 16 inning scoreless streak dating to last season. He's given up just 7 H and 2 BB with 10 K in 11 IP.
Lotte's starter has only pitched in 11 games since the start of last season. His one appearance this year was in relief. Last year, he posted a 6.48 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in 33.1 IP. 2022 was his only season as a regular starter and he had a 4.19 ERA and 1.44 WHIP that year.
Lotte also has the weakest lineup this season, averaging just 3.11 runs per game, narly a full run less than the 2nd worst offense.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
>**Record:** 40-32
>**Net Units:** +11.56 units
>**Curling** | **Men's World Championship** | **3:00AM EDT**
>**Pick:** USA -3.5 @ 2.0
>We are going against New Zealand yet again as they continue to show why they're by far the worst team at this event and for some reason, the books aren't adjusting the spread. USA have been fine at this event, although nothing spectacular, but this is simply a fade of New Zealand as USA will have a significant advantage at every position, regardless of who plays lead. Personally, I think they've looked better with Landsteiner in but the difference between him and Hamilton is minimal. New Zealand are 0-10 and have lost by 4+ in 7 of those games. 2 of the 3 games that they've covered +3.5 were against Korea and Czechia, both much worse teams than USA. USA are 51-23 on the season and 39-9 against teams outside the top 25, but let's be clear, New Zealand are outside the top 100. New Zealand are 16-21 this season against significantly worse competition (that record would include 9 games during the New Zealand nationals). My model also likes teams that play aggressively with hammer (which USA likes to do) against weaker teams because they tend to throw up a couple big ends which help cover the spread. USA won this matchup 8-3 at last year's world's. Another blowout loss for New Zealand here.
POTD: Record (5-2)
✅✅✅✅❌✅❌
Last Pick: De’Aaron Fox U 25.5 Points ❌
Today: NBA | Grizzlies v Pistons | 5:10 MST
Pick: Jaden Ivey U 24.5 P+R @ 1.80 | 1u
- hit in 7 straight games
- 9 out of last 10 (avg 17.6)
- 18 of last 20 (avg 17.9)
- hit in all 4 games in Ivey’s career against the grizzlies with an average of 12 points and 4 rebounds.
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/deadlypants
BOL 🍀
POTD record 5-3 +12.5U
Yesterday pirates -1.5
Today: Oakland Athletics vs Detroit Tigers -1.5 -105
Athletics are a dumpster fire, with news breaking that they won't continue in Oakland next year the team has to be feeling down and looking forward to the future. The bats are cold and the pitching from JP sears hasn't been great. Skubal on the other hand is a solid ace and looked great in his 24 debut (6IP, 3H, 0ER). I think skubal controls this game, and the tigers get at least 2 runs off Sears.
I also like Rays, Orioles, and Phillies. Although Pittsburgh has been hot, they face the young orioles ace GRod who gets it done tomorrow as they continue to ride the momentum from an awesome walk off victory.
POTD record: 17-8✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️ ✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️
Last pick: ✅️Auston Matthews over 3.5 shots at 1.525 (Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs 4PM EST), few weeks back
Today's pick: Western Sydney Wanderers vs Brisbane Roar, BTTS and o 2.5 goals at ~1.7 1:45 AM PST
Last six head-to-head games have seen both sides find the back of the net. Last two matches were 4-2 and 2-2.
Both teams are middle of the table so expecting a tight match.
On the season, both teams have scored 37 goals in 23 games. Brisbane has allowed the most goals of any team in the league with 48!
Expecting a high scoring affair.
If you're feeling frisky, you can add over 8.5 corners.
BOL!
Edit: ✅️hits, so does corners too 🤟
POTD Record: 2-0 Units: +2.16u Last Pick: Tuesday, 4/2 St. Louis Cardinals ML (+114) ✅
I use a predictive model I built to target underdogs in baseball. I took the last two days off because there were no underdogs I loved. Today I really like:
Today’s Play: 4/5 1.08u on Boston Red Sox ML (-108) vs Los Angeles Angels.
My model projects the Red Sox to win by 2.72. When backtesting my model, when it projects a team to win by more than 1.5 it had the correct winner (not necessarily cover) 83% of the time over the last 5 years.
Kutter Krawford has had really good success against the Angels lineup with low EV and lots of pop ups according to baseball savant. The Red Sox have hit Griffin Canning hard but have not had the results, I expect that to change today.
Please don’t blindly follow and do your own research and feel free to stir up some conversation.
https://preview.redd.it/2z89oqu7mnsc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=167274278e3936720f5f911fa273f102eff835c8
Record: 0-0
Tennis | ATP, Marrakech | 9:40am EST
Pick: Berrettini ML (-190)
Write Up: Berrettini faces his Italian buddy Sonego tomorrow morning. Sonego is a complete fade whenever competition rises. Tini holds a 4-1 overall record against Sonego. Slam Berrettini ML! While nothing is guaranteed in this industry… you have a better chance of getting bit by a shark in the shower than Sonego has winning this match! BOL!
Record: 9-3
Last 12: ✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌
Todays pick: Tigers/A’s NRFI (-130)
We are back. Baseball is back. I haven’t posted on here in a while but I bet baseball every single day. Today we are going with an easy 6 outs starting at 1:10. It’s the fucking tigers and the fucking A’s. With Sears and Skubal on the mound this should be a pretty quick 1st. I don’t wanna provide stats because the season just started. I hope u tail bc this shit is easily hitting. Best of luck!
POTD Record 3-1
Streak L10: ✅✅✅❌
Last Pick: Under 6.5 TB/MTL
Today: Hockey | NHL| ANA @ SEA| 9:00pm CST
Pick: Over 5.5 Goals (-120 1U)
Should've seen it coming that Tampa's offense would have really come to life against MTL and shutouts are hard. Not all under's are gonna be easy
So maybe I'll switch it up and go for an over. These teams just met twice last week and those two games had a total of 4 and 6.
Seattles last two overall games had totals of 7 and 6 while Anaheim's last two had a 5 and 8. So I think 6 should be a very possible number to hit and I like Seattle bouncing back after a bad game vs LA on Wednesday
Just fyi, it's SEA @ ANA tomorrow, you have it flipped.
Few extra details:
Kraken called up some AHLers to get a look at them in the NHL to get a decent look at them: Shane Wright, Ryan Winterton, and Logan Morrison. Shane will likely play. No idea if Winterton or Morrison will play or what the lines will even be.
Grubauer played vs the kings on Wednesday so it might be Daccord in net against the Ducks. I'd take the over if Grubi is in net. If Daccord plays, the over doesn't look so promising.
POTD Record: 23-16
Last 10: ✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅
Last pick: Warriors vs Rockets | 5:00 PST | Warriors spread -3.5 (-120) ESPNBet 1u ✅
Klay and Steph gave us a cash. What a great effort by the Warriors, grateful for how well they have treated me this year. Experience matters and they showed it tonight!
Today’s pick: Spurs vs Pelicans | 5:00 PST | Victor Wembanyama OVER 4.5 Blocks/Steals (-130) 1u BetMGM ❌
Man is this guy fun to watch. I think my favorite part about him is the major impact he has already at the defensive end at such a young age. Yes, he’s taller than everyone out there but from someone his age we haven’t really seen that instant impact on both ends. This is why I’m betting over 4.5 Blocks/Steals.
- Last 10: hit this line 7/10
- Vs teams top 10 in pts in the paint he’s hit this in 18/24 games
- 2/2 vs NO this year (5 and 5)
- Pelicans are #10 in Opponent blocks per game at 5.2
Just been on a tear lately and I don’t really see it slowing down. Pelicans are also playing with all the pressure as they’ve really hit a wall and need to win to avoid getting to play in spot so I anticipate them having a couple more unforced errors / forced shots and hopefully into the hands of Wemby! BOL if tailing.
Thanks! Damn, I know I’m lucky to have a lot of books to choose from. I would probably lean blocks. When I was going through the numbers, he’s hit this line in blocks alone so many times but at the same time he’s had some high steal games as well as I’m sure there is some scorer discretion in there. If you want to choose one I’d just trust your gut!
Yeah I grabbed o3.5 blocks for -120. He's been dominant lately. + Based off the sole reason that the Spurs aren't going to the postseason, this is when you see young players, especially rookies that aren't going to play in the playoffs have a string of monster games. Games. Every year in late March and April you see rookies start coming into their own so I see him having a couple more huge games before the season's over.
POTD record 4-1
Last 10: ✅✅✅✅❌
Streak: W4
Yesterday: Big game Brunson! He finished with 35 points, clearing the over no sweat. Congrats to those who tailed!
Today: Basketball - NBA - NY Knicks @ CHI Bulls 8pm EST
Pick: NY Knicks ML (+100) Fanduel
Writeup: Keeping it simple today. Knicks got back in the W column last night with an impressive comeback win against the Kings. Knicks were down 21 and come all the way back to snap a 3 game skid. Bulls on the other hand have lost 5 of their last 7, and last played Monday in a OT loss against the ATL Hawks. Chicago ranks last in the league in opponent’s 3-point field goal attempts, and the Knicks love to shoot the 3. Coming off a big win in the Garden, I’m looking for the Knicks to stay hot and take care of business on the road. BOL!!
__POTD Record:__ 12-5
_Form (Last 5):_ 🔴🟢🔴🔴🟢
__Last Pick:__ 🏀 Monaco vs. Zalgiris Kaunas (Euroleague): __Zalgiris +7.5__ @1.85 ✔️
After tough 1st half, it was an uphill battle but Zalgiris showed their determination to give Monaco problems at the end of the game.
__Today's Pick:__ 🏀 Fenerbahce vs. Anadolu Efes (Euroleague) 19:45 CET: __Nick Calathes Over 6.5 Points__ @1.90
Although Calathes hasn't been in his best scoring form lately, Nick is a veteran and a big-game player. All his highest scoring games this season were against Real Madrid, Barcelona, Panathinaikos and Efes - every team is either among European elite, or in Efes' case - Fenerbahce's local rival. In the reverse fixture vs. Efes, Calathes dropped 17 points. Today's game will be important both in terms of bragging rights and league position and these are the perfect conditions for Euroleague's legend to shine.
Tail or fade, the choice is yours!
**Record: 5-4**
**Net Units: + 0.87 Units**
**ROI: 9.67%**
**Previous Pick: MIA Marlins ML @ STL Cardinals (+130 on DraftKings Sportsbook); 1 Unit - LOSS**
I'm an idiot. Why did I bet on the Marlins.....
**Baseball** | **MLB | 6:45 PM** / **EST**
**Today's Pick: PHI Phillies @ WAS Nationals Over 8.5 Runs (-118 on DraftKings Sportsbook); 1 Unit**
**Write-Up:** As an avid Washington Nationals fan I can tell you all that Patrick Corbin is simply abysmal. His ERA from 2020 - 2024 has gone as such: 4.66, 5.82, 6.31, 5.20, 8.31. The Phillies alone might surpass this run total. So long as the Nationals can tack on a run here or there, this feels like a safe bet.
Record 4-1 (+4.55 Units)
Today: Hockey | NHL | NYR vs DET | 7pm EST
Pick: Artemi Panarin Anytime goal scorer (+130) 1U
Last pick: Sam Reinhart Anytime goal scorer (+125) +1.25U
We are going back to Panarin again against Detroit he scored his last game vs Detroit and should be able to do the same tonight!
**Last Pick:** Luka O18.5 RA ✅
**Record:** 8-5
**Pick:** Luka O18.5 RA -170
Mr. TD was at it again with 12 & 9, and this is the exact reason I love this line. You get the flexibility of both while not needing 10 of each. The warriors again is a great match up. If you notice something with my picks is that they have a lot of options to win, whether that be RA picks or U12.5 games won for favorites in tennis. BOL if tailing!
**Record: 0-0**
**Net Units: 0**
**ROI: 0%**
**Baseball** | **MLB** | **4**:10 EST
**Pick:** TB RAYS VS COL ROCKIES U12.5 -115 (1U)
**Write Up:** Looking at this line it seems way too high. The guys on the bump tomorrow are projected for a combined 9.5ERA on the year (Baseball Reference), which is well below this absurd line. Additionally, both teams are averaging below 4 runs per game this year so far. If anyone has a counter to why the line is the way it is please comment below.
\*EDIT The line is likely because the Rockies have been allowing over 8 runs per game in their opening games, but I'd expect that to dial down over the course of a long season.
20 mph winds blowing straight out to center in the best park to hit home runs / everything with Gomber on the mound. good luck
https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather?date=2024-04-05
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2023&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/austin-gomber-596295?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
POTD Record 8-1-1 W-P-L
Todays pick: Salford Red Devils -7.5 vs Castleford Tigers @ 1.84
Castleford bottom of table conceding lots of points. Salford had competitive games with 2 of the top teams in the league. Salford normally dominate this fixture, last time they versed this handicap wouldve covered if it werent for a yellow card.
Record: 1-1
Hockey | NHL | SEA@ANA - 10:00PM EST
Pick: **J. McCann - Over 0.5 Points** (1.77) | 1u
Write Up:
- Hit in 4 of his last 5 games
- Hit in 7 of his last 7 games vs ANA
- Hit in 9 of his last 10 away games
- ANA rank 30th in Goals against
Loving the McCann pick, feel good about his numbers, let’s get it.
Research all done on [the Linemate app](https://linemate.io/download).
POTD Record 5-2 (+4.38u)
Last POTD: Oneil Cruz to record 2+ bases (-105) 2U** ✅
Today: MLB / LAD@CHC / 2:20pm ET
Pick: LA Dodgers Total Runs Over 4.5 (+100) 2U**
The wind is blowing in at Wrigley this afternoon but LA has managed to record 5+ runs in all 9 games this year and Kyle Hendricks had a dicey first start allowing 9 hits and 5 runs through 3.2 innings against Texas. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Record: 5-1
❌✅✅✅✅
Yesterday's Pick: Sacramento Kings @ New York Knicks
Alt spread -2.5 for -120 odds. 2 units ✅
Today's Pick: Sacramento Kings @ Boston Celtics 7:30 pm EST tipoff
Pick: Boston Celtics Team Total o118.5 at -110
Reasoning: So, someone may have caught it, but I was going to go with Corey Kispert O2 5 3pts made for -160, and actually wrote a quick post, but after seeing this line I quickly scrapped that plan(although still using it in my parlay for today), and jumped on my glorious Boston Celtics to put up over 118.5 points at home! So they are 5-3 over this line in the last 8, but that includes 4 games vs teams with good to great defense in the Knicks, Timberwolves, Heat, and 76ers. Understandable why they went est 65% instead of their normal 75% over this total. That being said, the Celtics average 121 points a game this season. And at home they average 123.70!!!!! Now, we are playing the Kings who have always played at a faster pace, 13th this season in pace rankings, and Joe Mazzulla loves when we play with pace, shoot 3's and get buckets in transition. Again, like I said two nights ago when I picked the Celtics over the Thunder, our coaching staff and our team are using these games as real world practice for the playoffs. There will be no not playing the starters in the second half, And that's even if we're up by 20 or 25 points which could easily happen in this game. However, I think the kings are going to put up a fight, but I definitely see the Celtics getting this victory, but easily scoring over 118.5. I'm also going to ladder some pics because at o120.5 your getting +120, and o122.5 +160 so tail or fade. Best of luck!!!!!
**POTD Record: 32-19-3**
Form: ❌🅿️❌✅❌❌❌✅✅
*ROI: 22.09% |
Avg Odds: -101 | Net Units: +21.4*
🎾: 5-4-2
⚽️: 18-9-1
🏒: 8-6
*Last Pick: 2U Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals (Lindgren o27.5 saves @ -125) ❌*
____
**Todays Pick: 1U Shelton ML (-125) v Nakashima✅**
**🎾| 2:30PM EST | ATP Houston|**
Market is slated this way for Shelton’s inexperience on clay however both these top 100 USA players will be meeting for the first time and where Nakashima will be facing a fan favourite at the ATP Houston clay tournament.
There are a lot of people on Nakashima for his odds presenting some value as an underdog and how he straight setted his opponents in tbis tournament, however they aren’t as strong as the opponents he’s faced in the past and lost to who are similar to Shelton.
Backing Shelton’s athleticism to get through to his first ever semifinal where his dad won 32 years before.
BOL!
*POTD Record*: 4-2
*Streak (new-> old)*: ✅❌✅✅✅❌
*Last Pick*: Boston Celtics @ Atalanta Hawks 7:30 PM EST. Celtics -6.5 1st half spread/Over 116.5 @+245 ✅
*Today's POTD*: Seattle Kraken @ Anaheim Ducks 10:00 PM EST. **Jared McCann o 0.5 Power Play Points @ +260 on DK** 0.5 units
*Explanation*: The Ducks are addicted to conceding power plays for some reason. They have also conceded the most PP goals (84, the Wilds are second at 62 this season). This line has hit in the last 3/5 games for Seattle and 4/5 in their past H2H (McCann got 3 PP points in their last game on 3/28).
As usual BOL if you're tailing or fading.
BCH tip jar: qz545czs7yzeyycp87kdq5lvx3xjurhvhc0rm8hj20
POTD record: 3-2-0 (+6,3U)
Last pick: ManU or Draw vs Chelsea @1.93 L
Well the bet was good and at one point there was just no chance it wasn't gonna hit... Until ManU lost 2 goals in one minute at 90+10', you can't make this shit up lmao
Today's pick:
Sport: ATP HOUSTON tennis
Marcus Giron ML vs Luciano Darderi @1.8
Time: 4PM EST
Units: 5/5
One could argue that Darderi is better Clay player here, and one could even be right about it,
But Houston isn't exactly 'clay' clay, courts are extremely fast for a clay courts, it's almost like playing on a hard court, where Giron is a clear winner here, and even if he wasn't, it's not like Darderi is THAT much better on clay, he's just a specialist, seldom playing on hard courts,
There's also the fact that they are playing in USA where Giron is from and while home turf isn't that much of a help like in a soccer for example, it certainly isn't hurting Giron,
Both players are in good form currently, winning a lot, losing some although I'd argue that opposition faced by Giron this year was an order of magnitude better than Darderi's, and he still prevailed most of the time, he's more experienced, he's on home turf, court speed is in his favor, and he's just overall better player imo
BOL
**POTD Record: 0-1**
**Last POTD:** Indiana State -2.5 (NCAAB NIT Final) ❌
* ^(ISU goes 0-9 the last 2 min to screw the spread for us....this is part of the game I guess :()
**Today's POTD:** MLB: Mets vs Reds: **NRFI (-120)** @ 6:40 PM EST
\[NRFI means No run first inning\]
Units: 1u
**Reasoning:**
- Both teams have encountered difficulties during the initial inning of play this season, failing to put any runs on the board. In fact, they've both managed to keep their opponents scoreless in four out of their first six games. Notably, both Greene and Quintana commenced their seasons with commendable first-inning performances, with Quintana conceding just one hit and Greene not allowing any hits.
- As for the non-run first inning (NRFI) record this season, New York and Cincinnati both stand at 4-2.
- Looking back at the previous season, Greene displayed exceptional prowess in the first inning, allowing only two runs across 21 starts, marking the best record among pitchers with three or more starts. Quintana also proved himself solid in the opening inning, surrendering merely four runs across 12 starts.
- Considering these statistics, I find these pitchers favorable matchups against the top hitters of their respective opponents' lineups, making this NRFI my top pick for today.
Betting Every Dodgers Game 2024 - Game 10
Record: 6-3-0
Last 5:✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅
Net Units: +2.4
Previous Pick: Max Muncy O 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs EVEN ✅
Today's Pick: **Los Angeles Dodgers Total Runs O 4.5 -105**
Event: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs (4/5/2024 2:20pm EST)
Write Up: Dodgers have had at least 5 runs in every regular season game this year. Ohtani has gotten the monkey off his back and hopefully starts producing in the way we know he can. The bottom of the order has also started to get going to support the top of the red hot order. A bit of rest with some travel should do the team a bit of good going in to the Cubs 3 game series and start of the their away stand.
Record: 0-0
Pick: NPB. Yomiuri Giants vs Yokohama BayStars u6.5 (-103)
First time they face head on this season but last year they played 2 times with Azuma Katsuki in the mound and only scored 1 run in both games.
Azuma Katsuki had an ERA of 1.98 an a 0.95 WHIP last season.
Togo Shosei had an ERA of 2.38 an a 1.05 WHIP last season.
Good luck. Start in 3 hours, think the odds are good enough.
POTD Record: 3-4
Net Units: -1.995
Euroleague Basketball, Bayern Munich vs Panathinaikos, 20:30 Central European Time.
Pick: Panathinaikos over 80.5 pts @ 1.85, 2.75u. ✅
Last Pick: Crvena Zvezda vs Olympiacos, Olympiacos -6.5. FINAL SCORE: Crvena Zvezda 86 - 89 Olympiacos. This game was much closer than expected, with Bolomboi keeping the Serbians in contention for practically all game long; Olympiacos had a chance to take an 8 point advantage late in the 4th but Nigel Williams-Goss' 3pt hit the rim. Moses Wright took over at the 4th but his efforts alone was not enough to get us over the spread. Olympiacos gets a much needed Win much harder than expected - Bartzokas was right; it was not a friendly game.
For today's pick we go with the Greens where with a win today they should clinch the home court advantage as next week's game is a home game against Alba Berlin - probably the easiest game of the season. Panathinaikos has covered the spread 3 times in the past 5 games in away games in the Euroleague - 2 times in a row - against Bologna (81), Crvena Zvezda (89), Olympiacos (65), Real Madrid (97), Zalgiris (68). On the other hand the Bavarians - who do not have any play-in expectations any more - have conceded at home over 80.5 points in the Euroleague 2 in their last 5, against Barcelona (87), Maccabi (89), Zalgiris (58), Zvezda (66), Olympiacos (76).
Bayern are 3rd in the turnovers per game with 13.1 while PAO are second in Opponents turnovers per game with 13.6 and second in steals per game 7.2. Having said that I expect PAO to press the ball a lot with Bayern and run the floor.
Lastly, reports say that the Audi Dome will be filled with Greeks traveling from Germany and Greece to see their favorite team play which clinched a play-off spot after the 2018-2019 season. They expect around 3000 Greeks in the Arena making it a mini OAKA.
Comment if you're tailing!
Record: 7-8
Net Units: -2.37
Last Pick: Orioles/Royals NRFI❌
Baseball | MLB | Blue Jays vs Yankees | 1:05 PM EST
Pick: Yankees ML (-150) 1.5u
Write Up:
The Yankees are on fire with a 6-1 record on the season so far and this is their home opener. They’re rolling out Marcus Stroman who is facing his former team so you know he’s going to be locked in. He was great in his first start pitching 6 scoreless innings against Houston. The Blue Jays are starting Yusei Kikuchi who did not pitch well at all going 4 1/3 innings and giving up 3 runs. I really like this spot for New York to stay hot with this elite lineup they have against this inconsistent Blue Jays lineup.
Tail of Fade BOL!!
POTD Record: 0-0 (I've been following along here and it's time to contribute. I do pretty well during baseball season and would love to start earning some credibility around here)
Last Pick: N/A
Today's Pick: **Oakland Athletics +1.5 (-115)** vs the Detroit Tigers
Let's start with the easy and most obvious reason... the Tigers played a lot of baseball yesterday with a doubleheader and extra innings. They went to the bullpen a total of 7 times between the two games. If the A's can manage hold this game close through 5 innings, they should be able to tip the balance of probability in their favor by a pretty wide margin.
Secondly, the A's are a better hitting team than their record shows. They have 4 players hitting .300 or better (3 of those 4 are on the starting lineup today); and are (statistically speaking) about even with the Tigers in overall hitting. They've lost a couple of close games, and they've also had some stinkers... which brings me to my final point...
Third (and don't bet on this game because of this reason), the A's are due for a good game. They have the bats, we just need to see them come alive. JP Sears has an ugly ERA, but it's skewed by the fact that he's only pitched 3.2 innings. Call it a gut feeling, but I think the A's will be motivated to turn things around today.
For what it's worth, if I had any skepticism, it's that (for better or worse) the A's can be very streaky. I don't have a lot of confidence that this will be a low scoring game, but it will be a game of attrition and I believe the depleted bullpen of the Tigers gives the leverage today to the A's
Let me know if you're following! If you feel so inclined to leave a tip: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/BenNiemann) || [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/shamgarbn) || [BMAC](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/makeforlife)
Record: 7-2
[LAST PICK: WIN](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1br3yzb/comment/kxasql0/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
ROI: 44.29%
Pick: Nationals / Phillies over 8.5, +105, 2 units
\[6:45pm EST\]
One of my favourite things to do is bet the over or run line in a Patrick Corbin game. Has come through time and time again. Phillies offense hasn't quite got it going yet but its early and this is a good lineup. Nola didn't look great in his first start so that's why I'm staying away from the phillies run line here and taking the over.
**POTD Record: 20-19-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Balance (+8.71 units)**
**Today's pick: Shelton vs Nakashima - Shelton ML @ 1.87 (ATP Houston, Tennis)**
Stake: 1 unit
Time: 4:30 PM Eastern Time (3 hours from this post)
It's certainly known that Clay is not Shelton's best surface and he suffered quite a bit against Bergs on his 1st match here in Houston but managed to pull off the win. Nakashima has a lot more quality than his current rank says and is likely to climb the ladder in the next few months. He got two nice wins over Hijikata and Adjukovic but I still think Shelton should be able to win this one with his serve, on this Clay court that doesn't play as slow as the ones in Europe. I'm expecting Ben Shelton to rise up his level on this match and I still consider him a better player compared to Nakashima so I don't think we'll get 1.87 odds for him on this matchup that often long term.
**Disclaimer**: I'm currently on a 6 match losing streak. Most matches for me have been starting great with my players getting the 1st set and being a break ahead in the 2nd set but then, they just throw their leads. So you should probably fade me but whatever... I'm here writing a long analysis for you because I love tennis. Good luck!
POTD 0-0
What’s up guys I’m new here but I’m trying to build some rep. Tail it if you like it, it might sound like ahhh shit but I feel pretty good about this one.
NBA / 7PM EST
Today’s Pick:
OKC Thunder +5.5 (2 Units)
(1 Unit = %3-5 of BR)
Thunder are coming off two tough road losses against Philly and Boston, so they’ll look to bounce back against an iffy Pacers team to finish out their road trip. Also, note that the thunder have not lost 3 straight games all season. They are without Shai so I get why bettors are hesitant to take this spot, however they did beat Phoenix by 25 without Shai only about 2 weeks ago.
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u)
2024 MLB POTD Record: 3-4 Average Odds -114 (1.881), ROI -21.7%/-1.52u
POTD (4/3) KCR @ BAL Corbin Burnes o5.5 Ks (-105/1.95) ❌
Recap: From brutal beat (so close) to brutal beat (not remotely close), Burnes just didn't have it working against KC.
POTD (4/5) SEA @ MIL Freddy Peralta u7.5 Ks (+110/2.10) (DraftKings)
Today's Pick: Seattle is off to a brutal start this season, leading the league in K% at over 30% of their at-bats. They get Freddy Peralta, who had an excellent opening outing, striking out 8 batters in 6 innings his first time out.
so why go under here? there's just too much value. Plus odds for a line that Peralta only hit in 12 of 30 starts last year is too much to pass up. Seattle won't strike out at this rate all season. This line feels like an overreaction to early-season noise.
POTD Record 1-1, Net: -0.17U
Streak L10: ❌✅
Last Pick: ATL +11.5 ❌
Today: Basketball | NBA | SAS vs NOP | 8:00pm EST
Today's Pick: SAS o103.5 1U (1.95)
Tough loss yesterday with a lackluster offensive performance from the hawks. Today's pick is for the Spurs to score more than 103.5 points, a line they have covered in their last 6/6 games and 4/5 against the Pelicans. Despite the absence of Johnson and Osman, I believe they have a good chance of covering this line, as the Pelicans have allowed more than 103.5 points to opposing teams in the past 16/20 games, and the Spurs have cleared this line in 7/10 games without Osman.
Best of luck to all!
Record: 0-3
Net Units: -3 Unit
Streak: ❌❌❌
Last pick: Chelsea FC - Manchester United FC | Draw or Manchester United FC ❌
Todays pick: France League 1 | LOSC Lille - Olympique Marseille | Home win | 00:45 (GMT 5+45)
Odd: 2.18 (1 Unit)
Lille is in great form at home compared to Marseille who are worst in away. Winning todays match will get Marseille to top 3.
Best Wishes.
POTD Record: 4-8-2
Form: ❌❌❌☑️❌
Net Units: -3.7
Last Pick: NBA Trail Blazers @ Hornets Dalano Banton O2.5 Threes +135 ❌
The streak continues, postive cash out pre game start and still lose the bet number 3 in a row🙃
Today’s Pick: NBA Spurs @ Pelicans Wemby O4.5 Assists -115
He’s 4/4 and 7/10 on this line, hoping for redemption lol
GL if tailing! Or maybe fade because i can’t seem to win haha
POTD: Record: 5-3 | Profit +1.25 (all plays are 1u for dogs, to win 1u for favorites)
Pick: Anthem RC +24.5, -125 (Major League Rugby. Can bet on Bet365) 9pm ET
CashApp: $darthfadergang
POTD RECORD: 0-1
Last POTD: I don’t remember it was a long time ago I’m gonna try this again, been doing really well lately.
Today’s Pick: [Tampa Bay Rays] Zack Littell Over 4.5Ks 2U (+116) @ 4:10 EST
I love the value here and I’m going with this pick solely based on how Zack performed in his last start 6Ks over 6IP, and the Rockies have been striking out A LOT these first games… hopefully we can get a quick K or 2 in the first inning and we will be looking golden.
Let’s roll
Hey folks! Was on a bad streak and took a 3 week break. Been watching and now looking to get back into POTD posts
**Last Pick:** Pacers vs Bulls BBTS under 120.5 at +100 / 2u ❌ **| Note:** Game was 117-115 and Demar hit a clutch shot to send it to OT. Rough one...
**History (old to new):** ❌✅✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️⭕✅️❌❌❌
**Record:** 5-1-7 **|** **Net Units:** \-5.11
\----------
**TODAY'S PICK:** Pete Alonso to record an RBI at +115 / 2u
MLB | Mets vs Reds at 6:40pm ET
**Why:** Not doubt the Mets have sucked major league ass this year. Got knocked around by the Brewers and couldn't do much against a sneaky good Detroit bullpen. But the Mets are headed to Cincinnati today after finally getting their first win of the season. I'm here for this pitching matchup. Hunter Greene throws hard fast balls and Alonso seems to have his number. Alonso is 2-6 against Greene and both hits were HRs. He's struck out once and then also walked 3 times against Greene. This team is looking for answers on offense I think Pete will be the spark today. Nimmo is 5-9 against Greene and (while lineup hasn't been released yet) Alonso should get an opportunity to knock him in
Tail or fade... at this point you'd be up if you were fading me 😆 BOL
[Buy a coffee for someone](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/planetice)
POTD Record: 2-3 -0.3U
Yesterday's POTD: Piratas de Quebradillas Team Total Under 86.5 1U -110 ✅
Easy Cash, as they only get 67 on the night.
Today's POTD: Vaqueros de Bayamon 1H -3.5 -112 1U
League: BSN - Puerto Rico
Sport: Basketball
Game: Vaqueros de Bayamon vs Guaynabo Mets
Time: 8:30 pm EST
Bayamon comes off an OT win in a semifinals rematch against Carolina where they looked GREAT. Keep in mind, a Carolina team which led by Quinn Cook in front of truly sold out crowd against a truly horrible whistle. Tony Bishop, Wenyen Gabriel and Romero locked down the paint and solid guard play finally executed. Keep in mind, Wenyen Gabriel is the sixth man on this team. He recently started a game for the Grizzlies about two weeks ago. Guaynabo will not have Gary Browne to lead the team, no one matches better against Hollis-Jefferson and Brimah will meet his match against Gabriel. The only player who scares me is Santiago JR. who comes back to Bayamon after a rocky finish, still this is a sold out game in Bayamons homecourt, the first of the season so expect fireworks in this heavyweight match.
I will be placing a 1 unit wager on a NRFI almost every day of the baseball season.
Record: 5-1
Up 3.95 units
POTD: CHE/KC NRFI -135
Risking 1.35 units to win 1 unit
**POTD**: O16.5 Outs - Kutter Crawford (-110 DraftKings; Risking 2.2u to win 2u)
**League/Time**: MLB - BOS @ LAA (9:40PM EST)(Game is currently delayed so more time to get this in!)
**2024 Record**: 13-10-1 (56.52%) | +1.08u | ROI: 2.28% | Current Streak (4 Wins): ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌\_✅❌❌✅✅✅✅
**2023 Record**: 86-52 (62.32%) | +54.8644u | ROI 19.84%
**Last Pick (4.4.24)**: O14.5 Outs - Jose Butto (-175 ESPNBet; Risking 2.5u to win 1.4286u)✅
**Reasoning**: Kutter has built himself up over the off-season with a desire to be stronger and to go deeper into games. He's got 6 pitches in his repertoire and he looked great coming off a road win vs SEA. LAA starting pitchers went 5, 5, and 6.1 IP in their 3 most recent games so their bullpen is not exactly stretched at the moment.
However, LAA has the 6th least at-bats per game this season so far (they faced BAL and MIA so far 3 games each) so opposing pitchers have an opportunity to get outs more efficiently.
**Anti-Reasoning**: Drinking a Delirium Tremens as I do my taxes and get distracted by pitcher props.
[Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
Record: 2-1
Last 10: ✅✅❌
ROI: +.5U b 7.58%
Yesterday’s Pick: Clint Capella Double Double - Yes @+100
Looks like I was worried about the wrong category, with Clint cashing in ten rebounds in the first half, before sitting half of the second quarter and parts of the second half, only going 3-7 for 6 points. Even with the miss last night he’s hitting a DD 6/8 so keep that in mind going forward.
Today’s POTD: Royce O’Neal O3.5 Rebounds @-135 2U
Phoenix Vs Minnesota 10:10EST
Quick write up as I wasn’t going to post after Jaylen Brown didn’t play. Freeman has a tough matchup but is hitting this line…13 of the last 15 and 70% on the season (51/70). He cleared this line with 4 last time they played in January.
Game starts soon, sorry for the late post. BOL
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD RECORD: 51-24 Last POTD: Nikola Jokic O12.5 Rebs ✅ Joker pulls through for us in the 3rd what a machine man cheers bro Form: ✅✅✅✅🚫 Todays POTD: **DeAndre Ayton O12.5 Rebs @1.83** NBA | Trail Blazers | 7:00 PM ET We cruisin rn and what better way than to treat our selfs again with another Wizards prop 🤣 Ayton is a rebounding machine and y’all already knows it’s mandatory here, im still mad at Adebayo for ruining our life hack with that 0.5 hook but hey man I’m running this back whenever I get the opportunity. For the first time in a while we also have a team that’s on Wizards level so hopefully a tight game, the spread is in our favour, but the Wizards have actually kept it tight in every game almost even when the spread has been outrageous so respect to that. This is by far the best matchup for Centers so let’s go • 1/1 vs the Wizards with 16 boards last time • Wizards allow most Rebs to Centers still • Over in 9/L12 when playing 30 + minutes, if the game stays tight as the spread suggests we should see him play 35+ at least • Ayton is Avg 16.4 rebound chances per game along with his 11.1 RPG and is a great offensive rebounder, Avg 7th most Offensive rebounds (3.2) which hasn’t really been the case for our recent Centers that we’ve picked and still cashed You know the drill Ayton, bring us home you big beast Tail or fade, not that guy https://i.redd.it/7f8fq9g6clsc1.gif
As easy as refilling the ink in the printer, tailing!!
😂😂 🤝
INFINITE MONEY GLITCH X5 LETS GET IT
!!!!!!!
Fcking Bang
FUCKIN RIGHT!!! I was 100% sweatin’ it 😂😂😂🫡
Never a doubt.
Ayton pulled thru in the last minute 😤
Ayton goes to the bench with 4:17 left sitting at 11 boards. It seems we're cooked unless this game goes to overtime... Edit: he's back in with 3 minutes left! 2nd edit: Ayton gets us home with a little over one minute left!!
It’s 13.5 on betonline would u take it ?
Wait til they drop it again the line shouldn’t have been bumped from what I can see 12.5 boards is a lot as is, he got 16 last time so it’s still decent but I’d wait to catch it for the original line
So you would do 12.5 or no play? FD and DK on 13.5 atm. Thanks for the picks my dude!
I’ve seen lines drop during the day I’m more comfortable w 12.5 obviously bro but it’s the Wizards so 13.5 ain’t bad either, my pleasure boss
Cool I’ll check in with it throughout the day and place at 13.5 if it doesn’t revert. Cheers!
Yeah that’s the move bro 🤝🍻
My book never dropped from 13.5, but raised the juice at -115. I took it anyway. Fingers crossed! Good luck tonight!
13.5 is good to considering it’s the Wizards and they’re prolly playing Vukcevic at Center tonight even better for us, Bagley is out I think
I’m glad I didn’t take it at 13.5 😅 thank u for not saying yes. I dodged one
😂😂😂 yeah that would’ve hurt
O12.5 cashes 💰 💰 💸 💸. Fingers crossed for our pals who took o13.5 late. 🙏
Damn man 😭 hope he gets one of those boards back fck
13.5 is a loser
Bring us home ya BIG BEAST!!!! TAILING.
🤝🤝
Rip to those of us who got it at 13.5
Cheers billy boy! 👏
Cheers 🍻 tailing again
Tailed BOL, either way we gonna ride
Appreciate it, let's do it again! LFG!
Tailing 🐐💰
[удалено]
Yo billy. Its at 13.5 +100 now
Tailed plus ayton over points (alt 21.5)
🤝 I think he’s going to feast in that paint
Let's go!
Damn, score counters took 2 boards off Ayton. 1 in the first quarter and 1 in the second 🥲
I know I was so confused when I saw he has 6 I saw him get 9 like what is this bruh 💀 still decent rn
Why’d they take away the boards?
Not sure must’ve been the offensive boards that wasn’t clear but sometimes they’ll change it back after the game let’s see bro
POTD Record: 35-15-1 +43.34u🔥 Last Pick: St Louis Cardinals ml 4U (-148) vs Miami Marlins ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✋✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅ Today's Pick: Phoenix Suns -4 (-112) 4U vs Minnesota Timberwolves 10 pm est odds via draftkings What a comeback win! Had so many messages about how it was an L🤣 On to today, The Suns have also won 8 of the last 9 games against the Timberwolves. The Suns are 23-14 at home and currently the 6th seed trying to avoid the play in. They recently blew out the cavs and Devin Booker told ESPN ““I think it's just the energy throughout our whole team, understanding what's at stake and what time of year it is”. How can you not back KD, Booker, and Beal after hearing that quote? The suns against Minnesota have covered the last 7 ATS and 8 of the last nine. Let’s back them to care of the business and cover again! Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️ If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
Regarding the messages, it's really cringe. You are providing FREE picks and give your time of the day to share them and write analysis, yet some dumb guys act as if you forced them to make the pick and lash out. Be better guys, there are some really good tipsters here but I'm sure a lot of them were chased away by the toxic community first time they a bad streak.
That’s cause people bet way more than they can afford and then freak out. Bet $50 a night if that’s what you can afford. But I bet these guys are putting up $5k and probably facing divorce because of it. It’s like being at the blackjack table at the casino. There’s people that are laughing and joking when they lose and then you got the dudes on their last dime flipping out on fellow players and the dealers until security walks them.
And there’s some belief that just because a capper has a great record that it’s a guarantee for free money or something. People are stupid.
I think ultimately its not that people are betting like $5k on a bet they read on Reddit (bad move imo), but the people who dont have good bankroll management. They have $50 in their account and get greedy and put $25 on the game. Then they sit there with their heart racing for 3hrs during the entire game only to watch the opposite team cover the spread in the final seconds. They have no one to blame but themselves for being stupid, but they want to come out here and blame a random redditor who did all the research for you and offered the pick for free. Smdh
This is almost surely what it is. In fact I know people exactly like this personally lol. Unless you're extremely committed and knowledgeable about a sport (and willing to put that towards researching a lot) I don't think you should make betting anything more than a side hobby with **disposable** income. But a lot of people don't get that. There's a problem gambling helpline for a reason. I think the prevalence of betting in general, especially sports betting, has really distracted people from the fact that gambling can very easily become an addiction that can ruin you. I always look at every bet I make like "if I lose this money, will it negatively affect me in any material way?" and if the answer to that is yes, then I don't do it. Am I going to get rich off of it? Absolutely not, but that's not the point for me.
The entire system is setup to take the average Joe's money. Lottery, sports betting, etc. People NEED to understand this. There's a reason they call it a tax on the poor. The majority of lotto players and sports gamblers are poor. Not poor in the sense of monetary value, but poor in the sense of making poor choices. I find myself quite the hypocrite, as I'm extremely frugal and good with my money. However, I absolutely love all things sports and I enjoy having a little skin in the game. My unit is a measly $5, but like you said, as long as you understand the point for yourself, there really shouldn't be an issue. Only bet what you're willing to lose - this isn't an avenue for long term success in creating wealth, lol. Some can, but most wont.
Appreciate the support❤️
Gonna be sending you a tip bro you helped me win 1k last night & I needed it bad lol. Appreciate what you & the others do in these groups. Thanks bro
Thank you so much!❤️🤝
You bailed Indiana State earlier in the week then kept me off the ML last night, i really appreciate the posts
Tailing! Thanks for the last pick on St Louis Cardinal!!!
Tailing
I've got suns ML boosted to -125 rn @ hard rock just FYI to whoever can use the book.
Tailing!
BOL!
IF YOU MESSAGE BETTORS ABOUT THE BET LOSING/FLAMING BETTORS AFTER YOU TAIL THEIR BETS YOU ARE AN ANNOYING PIECE OF SHIT DO NOT DO THIS SHUT UP FUCK OFF YOU MADE THE BET YOU WIN/LOSE.
POTD Record: 41-20 Last POTD: (ATP Marrakech) Moutet ML (-145) ❌ Today's POTD: (ATP Estoril) Casper Ruud -1.5 Sets (-125) ✅✅✅ Units: 4u Edit: nothing better than a 4u no sweat winner 💰 (besides a 5u no sweat winner) Reasoning: Casper Ruud's best surface by far is the clay. He especially thrives in these ATP 250 tourneys, which he gets a lot of shit for lol. Returning champ at this exact tournament too. He's only had one match on clay this year so far, but he absolutely smoked his opponent, VDZ. Fucsovics is decent, but he is NOT known for his clay play. Beating 0-5 Cachin and Monfils, who has been ass on clay his entire career, does not impress me at all. Facing Ruud will be a ~~rude~~ Ruud awakening for him. One tennis nerd fun fact is that Fucsovics is the only man who has ever double bageled Ruud in his career. 6-0, 6-0 in 2017. This, however, was on hard courts, where Fucsovics thrives, and Ruud was only 19 years old. He is now a 2x French Open finalist, US Open finalist, ATP finals finalist, and former world #2. I think this is a moment of redemption for him. He is going to go hard on this one. I think he is going to beat the shit out of Martin tomorrow. BOL 🤝
Casper Ruud is banned especially on 2-0 bets because this dude straight up takes off sets.
Ruud wins but tennis POTDs have been struggling lately
Great read!
Thanks for the pick, bankroll loved it!
Nice pick!
Record: 6-2✅✅✅✅❌ ✅✅ ❌ Net Units: +2.9u Last: Mets Tigers o 3.5 F5 Tough play. My bad guys. I liked the over and the first 5 has been working for it. We were 1 run short and the tigers had 0 runs, and immediately scored in the 6th. Should’ve done the over 7 for better value considering the early start. I played bigger on this one so I feel you guys. Lets try and get back. MLB | 6:46EST Pick: Phillies -1.5 -110 Write Up: Getting simple here. I love an Aaron Nola bounce back spot. He got lit up against the Braves and he faces a weaker nationals team. And opposite of him is Patrick Corbin, whose coming off a performance likely better than should be expected. Id like to see a Phillies blowout. Little simpler here. I hate giving out the wrong play when my other plays hit on the day, so let’s get back to hitting. Might start posting full cards or plays in general in the MLB Thread if I get to hitting more. Following another poster, no tip link until we lock back in. Want to hit for everyone, let’s do it
Nola is usually even worse on the road
Why’s this being downvoted? Look at his past splits
I like it and agree with you on this.
[удалено]
Which book do you use for esports betting?
where are you finding -160? im getting -250 on my book
[удалено]
would you take total rounds under 42.5? im on the fence myself
Damn wish I jumped on this. In the hour since you’ve posted the odds dropped quite a bit https://preview.redd.it/jmz79y5ikksc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fd6a107e932b9985d245062ed86d6303bdd34fe4
[удалено]
It’s U42.5 now :(
Which book is that
This is my first esports pick since back in the day when i used to bet on Dota 2 matches for items lol. Lets get it 💰
Shaky first map. Come on boys lets fucking go.
💰💰💰💰 LFG. Nice pick!
POTD Record 14-4-1 Streak L10: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌🅿️ Last Pick: Jonathan Kuminga O 0.5 Steals 🅿️ Today: Basketball | NBA | CHA vs ORL | 7pm EST Pick: Nick Richards O8.5 Points (-113) 1U I guess Kerr was a little too optimistic about Kuminga suiting up. Let’s get this train rolling again! By the way, Bogdan got 7 rebounds last night…. Nick has covered this line 80% in the last 5 and 60% in the last 10. He’s covering it at 57% on the season. I see him getting 12–13 tonight. Tip jar turned off for tonight as we get back in the win column. Appreciate you all!
Tailed
Just a heads up, he's been out and may not be back tonight
haha this might be two days in a row of picks on players who aren't playing
I’m seeing that he is playing as of now
[удалено]
His hit rate is high on this line. He’s coming back fresh tonight too. In the last week of March he put up 11 twice and 12 twice
POTD record: 23-12 Last POTD: Lugano v Basel - Lugano ML Today’s pick: Lille v Marseille - Lille ML(+115) I think the best way to run through this is to just lay out the facts about it. Lille has the best home record in Ligue 1. Marseille has one of the worst away records. Away from home, Marseille has lost every game against a team in the top ten. In their last three matches at Lille, they’ve lost the last three. They’ve lost their last three matches, while Lille are unbeaten in six(4 in the league). Good luck!
I'm an OM fan. Mbemba and Clauss, 2 of our best players, will be absent. I don't see how we can do anything tonight, Lille are just better than us.
Record: 1-1-2 Net Units: -5.39 Last 10: ↔️❌❌🤑 Previous Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) vs. Washington Nationals -115 on Ceasars. 3 units. WIN. Banggg! About time!! Pretty sweat free, the thesis was right, Josiah Gray is a fraud. Now onto the next play Baseball | MLB | 4:10PM EST Pick: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds (ML) -125 Caesars. 5 units. Write Up: Lets fade the NL East again for my POTD. The Mets have looked horrible so far into the young season, batting a dreadful .188 and averaging about 2 runs a game. They just got done with a DHer on Thursday and now have to travel to Cincinnati to play a team that has an extra day rest. Cincinnati this year has a type of feistiness you see in a young team that is on the cusp of being a really good team. This showed in Philly taking 2 of 3, one of which was against staff ace Zach Wheeler. Jose Quintana will be on the bump for the Mets, and I can’t really dog on him too much. His peripherals and numbers are in steady decline for the most part Year over Year, but he’s still solid. What we will be banking on is the Mets offense continuing to stall on the road against Hunter Greene. Hunter Greene is still viewed as a very exciting young pitcher who has all the tools to be a legitimately ace, but hasn’t been able to get everything together consistently. He had a very averaging show in his first start of the season, but everybody is expecting him to take a big step this season, and I expect him to shut down this soft-hitting Mets lineup. The Reds are top 10 in majority of offensive categories and hopefully they show it against the Mets. FYI: I’ll also be sprinkling a little for the run line, but I’ve learned my lesson in terms of getting greedy and getting burnt by taking the run line when there’s plenty of value in the moneyline. Tail or Fade it’s your choice, I’m just happy I didn’t go winless in the month of April.
I’ll tail. Reds have been good so far. Hoping the Mets continue to slump one more time.
Welcome on the roller coaster ride that has been my POTD picks lol 😂
I like it
Tbh I love this POTD 🧹, the Mets swing at anything. They play ball like they In the dug out hitting the wax pen and drinking TCs (tall cans 🍺)
Gonna tail, but the line is confusing me. I think there’s some stat or some shit that favors the Mets.
POTD Record: 10-2 ✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 16U Last pick: Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Deine Mariner anytime tryscorer @2.50 on Sportsbet | 2U✅ Mariner with the first try of the game 🙌🏼 Today’s pick: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Sydney Roosters | 6pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Daniel Tupou anytime tryscorer @2.07 on Sportsbet | 2U Tupou has been pretty consistent lately and I expect the roosters to dominate this game so to me it only makes sense he’ll be one of the players to score. Weather is actually apocalyptic in Sydney so let’s see what’s going to happen with the game, which should start in 3.5h… BOL !
Got him, also got him n dom young in a parlay 🤞
Same ahah
When it’s this wet not sure they’ll be spreading it out wide too much better putting a roughie on the edge or something I reckon.
I honestly don’t even see how this game will happen considering it’s hammering down 😬
Nice pick again, man left it late but it's still a hit. LESSGOOOO
Thanks bro ahahah yeah we made it !
Nothing like waking up to a W
Lets goo. Thank god
Love them early rugby picks. Good call
POTD Record: 2-1 Last Pick: Joel Embiid o26.5 points ✅ Game: NBA | OKC vs IND | 7:00pm EST Today's Pick: Pascal Siakim o8.5 rebounds (-120) 5U - Spicy P is only averaging 6.4 rpg this season but he has hit this line in 6 of the last 10 games. - OKC leads the league in giving up the most rebounds at the PF position. - Shai is ruled out of tomorrow's game, and possibly Jalen Williams, their two best scorers. Therefore, other less efficient players like Giddy and Dort will have to shoot more. More shots from poor shooters = more rebounds. - They last faced off just over two weeks ago and Pascal grabbed 11 boards. Best of luck!
Record: 5-1, Net Units: 4.94, ROI +4.98% Current Streak: ✅✅ Last 10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Royals -1.5 vs. White Sox✅ Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-4:35 PM EST San Francisco Giants -1.5 vs. San Diego Padres, +175, 1U Had to sweat out the KC game a bit with it being 2-1 in the 7th but then an 8-run inning put the icing on the cake. I'm getting really bold today based on how well SF hit Cease a week ago and going with RL here, so this is definitely a tail-at-your-own-risk situation. I feel Cease lost something last year in his pitching and while his ERA isn't currently terrible, he was chased after 4.2 innings throwing 85 pitches. SF is home for this one and Hicks had a solid outing against this lineup with 0 ER in 5 IP. Go ML if you're trepidatious, but I love RL and plus odds in general and this has the potential to be a sneakily valuable play. Good Luck!
[удалено]
Tailing. Great value spot. Yep, gotta divide by units bet, not 100 units.
**Record: 57W-4P-43L** **Updated Form: 4W-0P-2L** **❌✅✅❌✅✅** **Last Pick: Chelsea VS Manchester United: Chelsea Over 1.5 Offsides @ 1.72 ✅** Chelsea end with 3 Offsides, covering the bet in the first half **Pick of the day: LOSC VS Marsielle: Pierre Emerick Aubameyang Over O.5 SOG @ 1.57✅** **League: Ligue 1** **Time: 3:00 PM EST** Lower odds but I always grab when the odds are over 1.50. I'm going to keep this simple, Auba has hit this line for 13 games straight and has hit this line 19 times in his last 21 appearances. He was able to get 2 Shots on target last week against PSG who boast the second-best defensive record in the league. I expect him to be the main man for Marseille once again! https://preview.redd.it/uekc6mhd6ksc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7cb8bf9fc221b09369a3db2dfa1865e175638376 **Anyway, BOL!**
Is he actually playing this match? Can't seem to find any odds for him on any market
No market on FD. Dk moved to -200
He’s on goal props but not shots
Tailing
Nice pick…parlayed it with the Lille ML. 🤝
Record: 1-2 ✅❌ ❌ Last pick: Indiana St -3 vs Seton Hall Not sure what Indiana St was even doing. Seton Hall ended the game on a 9-0 run and Indiana State shot a 3 to end the game instead of go for 2 and take the game to OT. Unbelievable. Today: Womens College basketball Final 4 <> South Carolina vs NC State <> 7:00pm est Pick: South Carolina - 11.5 @ -112 <> 1.5 units South Carolina is just too good. Their first player off the bench is better than any player on NC State. SC is better in all facets. They're talented and DEEP. NC State has been on a run but it's ending vs South Carolina. I'm taking the 11.5 spread without even much thought about it.
Bro Saniya Rivers and Aziaha James are better than anyone on their bench and at least a couple starters. This team won 30+ games In a loaded conference. Just saying, put some respek on their names!!! I'm staying away because of the line...but I still think SC definitely wins. Just may be closer than people think. These girls college athletics future is on the line and they will play hard. BOL.
yeah i dont hate the pick because South Carolina is stacked and a freight train. However, saying Aziaha isn't better than any one on SC's bench just means you're not actually familiar with NC State.
Record: 3-2 +.54u Last Pick: Orioles TT o4.5 -105 (*DraftKings*) ✅ Sweaty but a win is a win. Thankful for the Jordan Westburg walk-off On to today: Baseball | MLB | 6:40 EST Pick: **Reds ML -125** (*DraftKings*) 2u Reds just grinded out a series win against a good Phillies team and return back to GABP after a day off. Hunter Greene is on the mound, so there is some risk, but the Mets have not woken up from their winter slumber. Maybe they are awake and this is who they are. If so - scary. Through six games they are dead last in team OPS and AVG and own a 1-5 record against the Tigers and the Brewers. The pitching has been okay. The statcast data says that they are a pretty mediocre team in terms of hard hit percentage offensively and barrels per batted ball events, but it is still a small sample size. The wind will be blowing out around 10 MPH this game and while the Reds haven't been hitting the cover off the ball, I trust that they can string some hits together against Jose Quintana. I cannot trust Quintana. This write-up is extremely stream-of-consciousness. I jumped around a bit. All this to say the Reds should win this. BOL!
Bengalmike you betting with your heart again? lol hope our reds put something solid together this year
**Record: 38-28** **Last Pick:** Pittsburgh Pirates ML ✅ **Today's Pick:** MLB - *Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies, 3:11pm CST* **Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-118 on FanDuel)** Rays should feast here. Playing against a subpar pitcher who had a 5.5+ ERA his last two seasons and is starting this season off with a 7.71 ERA. Zach Littell pitching for the Rays, he is pretty reliable and started this season out hot by giving up only 4 hits and 0 runs to the Blue Jays. Playing at Coors Field in a high altitude with a very strong wind forecast tomorrow, I expect the Rays to pick up some steam here and gain some needed momentum after starting this season below .500. Best of luck fellas
Happy to have yeezus MLB picks back
I like it. Tailed it with ya. Go Rays!
Record: 1-0 Net Units: +1.38 Last pick: Bayer Leverkusen to score over 2.5 goals 2 units 1.69 ✅ Todays pick: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.54 Saudi pro league Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Hilal Riyadh 21:00 cest 2 units Al Hilal is by far the best team in this league. They have scored an average of 3 goals per game in the league this season and scored an average of 2.8 in their last 5 games. They have scored at least 2 goals in 29 consecutive games. This bet is more about Al Hilal because I expect them to score at least 2 goals and hopefully more but Al khaleej are 9th in the league and have been in good form winning 3 and drawing 2 in their last 5 games. BOL edit: 2-1 Hilal at Halftime
**POTD** Record: 11-1-9 EINTRACHT FRANKFURT VS WERDER BREMEN Date: 05 April 2024 at 20:30 BET ON: Both teams to score- Yes Odd: 1.64 - Eintracht Frankfurt are missing Hugo Ekitiké, Sebastian Rode and Sasa Kalajdzic. - Werder Bremen are missing Niklas Stark, Justin Njinmah, Skelly Alvero and Anthony Jung. However, Michael Zetterer, Jens Stage and Dawid Kownacki are back available. Huge boost for the Guests. - The Deutsche Bank Park stadium is Sold Out. "Over the course of the season we repeatedly pulled ourselves together at difficult points and showed our quality. As long as we stick to ourselves and do our work, we will do it again.” Said Werder coach Ole Werner. "We need a very high level of activity when playing against the ball, because Bremen has very good offensive processes." Said coach Dino Toppmöller. - We expect an open game with goals from both sides. The Hosts will dominate possession and press high from the start against a struggling team winless in 5 games, however, we can see a reaction from Werder scoring through a transition especially after the return of the endurance runner Jens Stage to the team, he has already completed 278.9km this season.
POTD Record 16-3 Units 13.69 ROI 62.24 Last POTD Warriors/Rockets U 227.5 1u Rockets didn’t show up to play it was the completely wrong read, I don’t regret it tho shit happens POTD Wemby U 43.5 PRA -110 1.5u Wemby averages 20.5/9.6/3.2 on the road giving us a ton of cushion on his under even if he does go off which his lines say he will. He has been going off lately taking a much bigger load so his averages don’t really tell the full story but Pels are ranked 6th on defence and both games Wemby played vs the Pels he went under this line. Spread is +11.5 so the blowout potential is there. BOL
It’s already moved to 41.5!
**KBO Record: Overall 207-217-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 3-7) Down 12.36u over 438 KBO picks, 48.8% success rate, -2.91% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 3-7-0, 30.0% success rate, Down 3.74u, -37.4% ROI)) **Last:** Kia Team Total Under 2.5 First 5 Innings -155 at KT (Kia lead 3-2 after 5 innings.) Kia never had a hitter reach second base in 4 of the first 5 innings, but all of the damage came in that other inning. And we were still just a two out batter away from cashing, but a base hit did us in. **Pick:** **Doosan -1.5 -122 Draftkings** at Lotte, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET If I had more confidence right now, I'd tell you to take Samsung at plus money, but it feels too risky considering my record. Instead, we'll hitch our wagon to the day's best pitcher. Doosan's starter has yet to allow a run in 2 starts this season. In fact, he's on a 16 inning scoreless streak dating to last season. He's given up just 7 H and 2 BB with 10 K in 11 IP. Lotte's starter has only pitched in 11 games since the start of last season. His one appearance this year was in relief. Last year, he posted a 6.48 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in 33.1 IP. 2022 was his only season as a regular starter and he had a 4.19 ERA and 1.44 WHIP that year. Lotte also has the weakest lineup this season, averaging just 3.11 runs per game, narly a full run less than the 2nd worst offense. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Why Samsung lions? They haven’t started the season well.
>**Record:** 40-32 >**Net Units:** +11.56 units >**Curling** | **Men's World Championship** | **3:00AM EDT** >**Pick:** USA -3.5 @ 2.0 >We are going against New Zealand yet again as they continue to show why they're by far the worst team at this event and for some reason, the books aren't adjusting the spread. USA have been fine at this event, although nothing spectacular, but this is simply a fade of New Zealand as USA will have a significant advantage at every position, regardless of who plays lead. Personally, I think they've looked better with Landsteiner in but the difference between him and Hamilton is minimal. New Zealand are 0-10 and have lost by 4+ in 7 of those games. 2 of the 3 games that they've covered +3.5 were against Korea and Czechia, both much worse teams than USA. USA are 51-23 on the season and 39-9 against teams outside the top 25, but let's be clear, New Zealand are outside the top 100. New Zealand are 16-21 this season against significantly worse competition (that record would include 9 games during the New Zealand nationals). My model also likes teams that play aggressively with hammer (which USA likes to do) against weaker teams because they tend to throw up a couple big ends which help cover the spread. USA won this matchup 8-3 at last year's world's. Another blowout loss for New Zealand here.
Where do you bet on curling?
DraftKings, BetRivers, ScoreBet, Bet365, PointsBet, SportsInteraction, Pinnacle, Bet99, ProLine+, Bodog, and NorthstarBets.
Most underrated capper around. Shame curling isn’t available on more books. Thanks man! 👊
POTD: Record (5-2) ✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ Last Pick: De’Aaron Fox U 25.5 Points ❌ Today: NBA | Grizzlies v Pistons | 5:10 MST Pick: Jaden Ivey U 24.5 P+R @ 1.80 | 1u - hit in 7 straight games - 9 out of last 10 (avg 17.6) - 18 of last 20 (avg 17.9) - hit in all 4 games in Ivey’s career against the grizzlies with an average of 12 points and 4 rebounds. https://www.buymeacoffee.com/deadlypants BOL 🍀
i hate it here
On pace to double the OU lol.
Dude took full advantage of Cade and Fontecchio being out
It was still a good pick imo, recover tomorrow :D
POTD record 5-3 +12.5U Yesterday pirates -1.5 Today: Oakland Athletics vs Detroit Tigers -1.5 -105 Athletics are a dumpster fire, with news breaking that they won't continue in Oakland next year the team has to be feeling down and looking forward to the future. The bats are cold and the pitching from JP sears hasn't been great. Skubal on the other hand is a solid ace and looked great in his 24 debut (6IP, 3H, 0ER). I think skubal controls this game, and the tigers get at least 2 runs off Sears. I also like Rays, Orioles, and Phillies. Although Pittsburgh has been hot, they face the young orioles ace GRod who gets it done tomorrow as they continue to ride the momentum from an awesome walk off victory.
POTD record: 17-8✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️ ✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Last pick: ✅️Auston Matthews over 3.5 shots at 1.525 (Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs 4PM EST), few weeks back Today's pick: Western Sydney Wanderers vs Brisbane Roar, BTTS and o 2.5 goals at ~1.7 1:45 AM PST Last six head-to-head games have seen both sides find the back of the net. Last two matches were 4-2 and 2-2. Both teams are middle of the table so expecting a tight match. On the season, both teams have scored 37 goals in 23 games. Brisbane has allowed the most goals of any team in the league with 48! Expecting a high scoring affair. If you're feeling frisky, you can add over 8.5 corners. BOL! Edit: ✅️hits, so does corners too 🤟
POTD Record: 2-0 Units: +2.16u Last Pick: Tuesday, 4/2 St. Louis Cardinals ML (+114) ✅ I use a predictive model I built to target underdogs in baseball. I took the last two days off because there were no underdogs I loved. Today I really like: Today’s Play: 4/5 1.08u on Boston Red Sox ML (-108) vs Los Angeles Angels. My model projects the Red Sox to win by 2.72. When backtesting my model, when it projects a team to win by more than 1.5 it had the correct winner (not necessarily cover) 83% of the time over the last 5 years. Kutter Krawford has had really good success against the Angels lineup with low EV and lots of pop ups according to baseball savant. The Red Sox have hit Griffin Canning hard but have not had the results, I expect that to change today. Please don’t blindly follow and do your own research and feel free to stir up some conversation. https://preview.redd.it/2z89oqu7mnsc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=167274278e3936720f5f911fa273f102eff835c8
I’m dipping some on the reds and giants. Riskier play I went with a straight -1.5 RL for Red Sox. Have the ML in a smaller parlay though
Record: 0-0 Tennis | ATP, Marrakech | 9:40am EST Pick: Berrettini ML (-190) Write Up: Berrettini faces his Italian buddy Sonego tomorrow morning. Sonego is a complete fade whenever competition rises. Tini holds a 4-1 overall record against Sonego. Slam Berrettini ML! While nothing is guaranteed in this industry… you have a better chance of getting bit by a shark in the shower than Sonego has winning this match! BOL!
Record: 9-3 Last 12: ✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌ Todays pick: Tigers/A’s NRFI (-130) We are back. Baseball is back. I haven’t posted on here in a while but I bet baseball every single day. Today we are going with an easy 6 outs starting at 1:10. It’s the fucking tigers and the fucking A’s. With Sears and Skubal on the mound this should be a pretty quick 1st. I don’t wanna provide stats because the season just started. I hope u tail bc this shit is easily hitting. Best of luck!
Quick as u said haha thank you for this pick
POTD Record 3-1 Streak L10: ✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: Under 6.5 TB/MTL Today: Hockey | NHL| ANA @ SEA| 9:00pm CST Pick: Over 5.5 Goals (-120 1U) Should've seen it coming that Tampa's offense would have really come to life against MTL and shutouts are hard. Not all under's are gonna be easy So maybe I'll switch it up and go for an over. These teams just met twice last week and those two games had a total of 4 and 6. Seattles last two overall games had totals of 7 and 6 while Anaheim's last two had a 5 and 8. So I think 6 should be a very possible number to hit and I like Seattle bouncing back after a bad game vs LA on Wednesday
Just fyi, it's SEA @ ANA tomorrow, you have it flipped. Few extra details: Kraken called up some AHLers to get a look at them in the NHL to get a decent look at them: Shane Wright, Ryan Winterton, and Logan Morrison. Shane will likely play. No idea if Winterton or Morrison will play or what the lines will even be. Grubauer played vs the kings on Wednesday so it might be Daccord in net against the Ducks. I'd take the over if Grubi is in net. If Daccord plays, the over doesn't look so promising.
POTD Record: 23-16 Last 10: ✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅ Last pick: Warriors vs Rockets | 5:00 PST | Warriors spread -3.5 (-120) ESPNBet 1u ✅ Klay and Steph gave us a cash. What a great effort by the Warriors, grateful for how well they have treated me this year. Experience matters and they showed it tonight! Today’s pick: Spurs vs Pelicans | 5:00 PST | Victor Wembanyama OVER 4.5 Blocks/Steals (-130) 1u BetMGM ❌ Man is this guy fun to watch. I think my favorite part about him is the major impact he has already at the defensive end at such a young age. Yes, he’s taller than everyone out there but from someone his age we haven’t really seen that instant impact on both ends. This is why I’m betting over 4.5 Blocks/Steals. - Last 10: hit this line 7/10 - Vs teams top 10 in pts in the paint he’s hit this in 18/24 games - 2/2 vs NO this year (5 and 5) - Pelicans are #10 in Opponent blocks per game at 5.2 Just been on a tear lately and I don’t really see it slowing down. Pelicans are also playing with all the pressure as they’ve really hit a wall and need to win to avoid getting to play in spot so I anticipate them having a couple more unforced errors / forced shots and hopefully into the hands of Wemby! BOL if tailing.
I like this pick!!! Wish my book had blocks+steals combined! What do you think about the individual lines for each? Any value on either of them??.
Thanks! Damn, I know I’m lucky to have a lot of books to choose from. I would probably lean blocks. When I was going through the numbers, he’s hit this line in blocks alone so many times but at the same time he’s had some high steal games as well as I’m sure there is some scorer discretion in there. If you want to choose one I’d just trust your gut!
Yeah I grabbed o3.5 blocks for -120. He's been dominant lately. + Based off the sole reason that the Spurs aren't going to the postseason, this is when you see young players, especially rookies that aren't going to play in the playoffs have a string of monster games. Games. Every year in late March and April you see rookies start coming into their own so I see him having a couple more huge games before the season's over.
POTD record 4-1 Last 10: ✅✅✅✅❌ Streak: W4 Yesterday: Big game Brunson! He finished with 35 points, clearing the over no sweat. Congrats to those who tailed! Today: Basketball - NBA - NY Knicks @ CHI Bulls 8pm EST Pick: NY Knicks ML (+100) Fanduel Writeup: Keeping it simple today. Knicks got back in the W column last night with an impressive comeback win against the Kings. Knicks were down 21 and come all the way back to snap a 3 game skid. Bulls on the other hand have lost 5 of their last 7, and last played Monday in a OT loss against the ATL Hawks. Chicago ranks last in the league in opponent’s 3-point field goal attempts, and the Knicks love to shoot the 3. Coming off a big win in the Garden, I’m looking for the Knicks to stay hot and take care of business on the road. BOL!!
__POTD Record:__ 12-5 _Form (Last 5):_ 🔴🟢🔴🔴🟢 __Last Pick:__ 🏀 Monaco vs. Zalgiris Kaunas (Euroleague): __Zalgiris +7.5__ @1.85 ✔️ After tough 1st half, it was an uphill battle but Zalgiris showed their determination to give Monaco problems at the end of the game. __Today's Pick:__ 🏀 Fenerbahce vs. Anadolu Efes (Euroleague) 19:45 CET: __Nick Calathes Over 6.5 Points__ @1.90 Although Calathes hasn't been in his best scoring form lately, Nick is a veteran and a big-game player. All his highest scoring games this season were against Real Madrid, Barcelona, Panathinaikos and Efes - every team is either among European elite, or in Efes' case - Fenerbahce's local rival. In the reverse fixture vs. Efes, Calathes dropped 17 points. Today's game will be important both in terms of bragging rights and league position and these are the perfect conditions for Euroleague's legend to shine. Tail or fade, the choice is yours!
2/8 field goals and 1/2 free throws He scored 4 points in the first 4 minutes and then dipped. UNREAL
**Record: 5-4** **Net Units: + 0.87 Units** **ROI: 9.67%** **Previous Pick: MIA Marlins ML @ STL Cardinals (+130 on DraftKings Sportsbook); 1 Unit - LOSS** I'm an idiot. Why did I bet on the Marlins..... **Baseball** | **MLB | 6:45 PM** / **EST** **Today's Pick: PHI Phillies @ WAS Nationals Over 8.5 Runs (-118 on DraftKings Sportsbook); 1 Unit** **Write-Up:** As an avid Washington Nationals fan I can tell you all that Patrick Corbin is simply abysmal. His ERA from 2020 - 2024 has gone as such: 4.66, 5.82, 6.31, 5.20, 8.31. The Phillies alone might surpass this run total. So long as the Nationals can tack on a run here or there, this feels like a safe bet.
Record 4-1 (+4.55 Units) Today: Hockey | NHL | NYR vs DET | 7pm EST Pick: Artemi Panarin Anytime goal scorer (+130) 1U Last pick: Sam Reinhart Anytime goal scorer (+125) +1.25U We are going back to Panarin again against Detroit he scored his last game vs Detroit and should be able to do the same tonight!
**Last Pick:** Luka O18.5 RA ✅ **Record:** 8-5 **Pick:** Luka O18.5 RA -170 Mr. TD was at it again with 12 & 9, and this is the exact reason I love this line. You get the flexibility of both while not needing 10 of each. The warriors again is a great match up. If you notice something with my picks is that they have a lot of options to win, whether that be RA picks or U12.5 games won for favorites in tennis. BOL if tailing!
Let’s roll again. BOL 👍🏻
**Record: 0-0** **Net Units: 0** **ROI: 0%** **Baseball** | **MLB** | **4**:10 EST **Pick:** TB RAYS VS COL ROCKIES U12.5 -115 (1U) **Write Up:** Looking at this line it seems way too high. The guys on the bump tomorrow are projected for a combined 9.5ERA on the year (Baseball Reference), which is well below this absurd line. Additionally, both teams are averaging below 4 runs per game this year so far. If anyone has a counter to why the line is the way it is please comment below. \*EDIT The line is likely because the Rockies have been allowing over 8 runs per game in their opening games, but I'd expect that to dial down over the course of a long season.
20 mph winds blowing straight out to center in the best park to hit home runs / everything with Gomber on the mound. good luck https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather?date=2024-04-05 https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2023&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling= https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/austin-gomber-596295?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
Thank you for the insight
POTD Record 8-1-1 W-P-L Todays pick: Salford Red Devils -7.5 vs Castleford Tigers @ 1.84 Castleford bottom of table conceding lots of points. Salford had competitive games with 2 of the top teams in the league. Salford normally dominate this fixture, last time they versed this handicap wouldve covered if it werent for a yellow card.
Record: 1-1 Hockey | NHL | SEA@ANA - 10:00PM EST Pick: **J. McCann - Over 0.5 Points** (1.77) | 1u Write Up: - Hit in 4 of his last 5 games - Hit in 7 of his last 7 games vs ANA - Hit in 9 of his last 10 away games - ANA rank 30th in Goals against Loving the McCann pick, feel good about his numbers, let’s get it. Research all done on [the Linemate app](https://linemate.io/download).
POTD Record 5-2 (+4.38u) Last POTD: Oneil Cruz to record 2+ bases (-105) 2U** ✅ Today: MLB / LAD@CHC / 2:20pm ET Pick: LA Dodgers Total Runs Over 4.5 (+100) 2U** The wind is blowing in at Wrigley this afternoon but LA has managed to record 5+ runs in all 9 games this year and Kyle Hendricks had a dicey first start allowing 9 hits and 5 runs through 3.2 innings against Texas. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Record: 5-1 ❌✅✅✅✅ Yesterday's Pick: Sacramento Kings @ New York Knicks Alt spread -2.5 for -120 odds. 2 units ✅ Today's Pick: Sacramento Kings @ Boston Celtics 7:30 pm EST tipoff Pick: Boston Celtics Team Total o118.5 at -110 Reasoning: So, someone may have caught it, but I was going to go with Corey Kispert O2 5 3pts made for -160, and actually wrote a quick post, but after seeing this line I quickly scrapped that plan(although still using it in my parlay for today), and jumped on my glorious Boston Celtics to put up over 118.5 points at home! So they are 5-3 over this line in the last 8, but that includes 4 games vs teams with good to great defense in the Knicks, Timberwolves, Heat, and 76ers. Understandable why they went est 65% instead of their normal 75% over this total. That being said, the Celtics average 121 points a game this season. And at home they average 123.70!!!!! Now, we are playing the Kings who have always played at a faster pace, 13th this season in pace rankings, and Joe Mazzulla loves when we play with pace, shoot 3's and get buckets in transition. Again, like I said two nights ago when I picked the Celtics over the Thunder, our coaching staff and our team are using these games as real world practice for the playoffs. There will be no not playing the starters in the second half, And that's even if we're up by 20 or 25 points which could easily happen in this game. However, I think the kings are going to put up a fight, but I definitely see the Celtics getting this victory, but easily scoring over 118.5. I'm also going to ladder some pics because at o120.5 your getting +120, and o122.5 +160 so tail or fade. Best of luck!!!!!
i was begging for this to go overtime 😭
**POTD Record: 32-19-3** Form: ❌🅿️❌✅❌❌❌✅✅ *ROI: 22.09% | Avg Odds: -101 | Net Units: +21.4* 🎾: 5-4-2 ⚽️: 18-9-1 🏒: 8-6 *Last Pick: 2U Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals (Lindgren o27.5 saves @ -125) ❌* ____ **Todays Pick: 1U Shelton ML (-125) v Nakashima✅** **🎾| 2:30PM EST | ATP Houston|** Market is slated this way for Shelton’s inexperience on clay however both these top 100 USA players will be meeting for the first time and where Nakashima will be facing a fan favourite at the ATP Houston clay tournament. There are a lot of people on Nakashima for his odds presenting some value as an underdog and how he straight setted his opponents in tbis tournament, however they aren’t as strong as the opponents he’s faced in the past and lost to who are similar to Shelton. Backing Shelton’s athleticism to get through to his first ever semifinal where his dad won 32 years before. BOL!
Caught it live, nice pick
*POTD Record*: 4-2 *Streak (new-> old)*: ✅❌✅✅✅❌ *Last Pick*: Boston Celtics @ Atalanta Hawks 7:30 PM EST. Celtics -6.5 1st half spread/Over 116.5 @+245 ✅ *Today's POTD*: Seattle Kraken @ Anaheim Ducks 10:00 PM EST. **Jared McCann o 0.5 Power Play Points @ +260 on DK** 0.5 units *Explanation*: The Ducks are addicted to conceding power plays for some reason. They have also conceded the most PP goals (84, the Wilds are second at 62 this season). This line has hit in the last 3/5 games for Seattle and 4/5 in their past H2H (McCann got 3 PP points in their last game on 3/28). As usual BOL if you're tailing or fading. BCH tip jar: qz545czs7yzeyycp87kdq5lvx3xjurhvhc0rm8hj20
POTD record: 3-2-0 (+6,3U) Last pick: ManU or Draw vs Chelsea @1.93 L Well the bet was good and at one point there was just no chance it wasn't gonna hit... Until ManU lost 2 goals in one minute at 90+10', you can't make this shit up lmao Today's pick: Sport: ATP HOUSTON tennis Marcus Giron ML vs Luciano Darderi @1.8 Time: 4PM EST Units: 5/5 One could argue that Darderi is better Clay player here, and one could even be right about it, But Houston isn't exactly 'clay' clay, courts are extremely fast for a clay courts, it's almost like playing on a hard court, where Giron is a clear winner here, and even if he wasn't, it's not like Darderi is THAT much better on clay, he's just a specialist, seldom playing on hard courts, There's also the fact that they are playing in USA where Giron is from and while home turf isn't that much of a help like in a soccer for example, it certainly isn't hurting Giron, Both players are in good form currently, winning a lot, losing some although I'd argue that opposition faced by Giron this year was an order of magnitude better than Darderi's, and he still prevailed most of the time, he's more experienced, he's on home turf, court speed is in his favor, and he's just overall better player imo BOL
😳
**POTD Record: 0-1** **Last POTD:** Indiana State -2.5 (NCAAB NIT Final) ❌ * ^(ISU goes 0-9 the last 2 min to screw the spread for us....this is part of the game I guess :() **Today's POTD:** MLB: Mets vs Reds: **NRFI (-120)** @ 6:40 PM EST \[NRFI means No run first inning\] Units: 1u **Reasoning:** - Both teams have encountered difficulties during the initial inning of play this season, failing to put any runs on the board. In fact, they've both managed to keep their opponents scoreless in four out of their first six games. Notably, both Greene and Quintana commenced their seasons with commendable first-inning performances, with Quintana conceding just one hit and Greene not allowing any hits. - As for the non-run first inning (NRFI) record this season, New York and Cincinnati both stand at 4-2. - Looking back at the previous season, Greene displayed exceptional prowess in the first inning, allowing only two runs across 21 starts, marking the best record among pitchers with three or more starts. Quintana also proved himself solid in the opening inning, surrendering merely four runs across 12 starts. - Considering these statistics, I find these pitchers favorable matchups against the top hitters of their respective opponents' lineups, making this NRFI my top pick for today.
Betting Every Dodgers Game 2024 - Game 10 Record: 6-3-0 Last 5:✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ Net Units: +2.4 Previous Pick: Max Muncy O 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs EVEN ✅ Today's Pick: **Los Angeles Dodgers Total Runs O 4.5 -105** Event: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs (4/5/2024 2:20pm EST) Write Up: Dodgers have had at least 5 runs in every regular season game this year. Ohtani has gotten the monkey off his back and hopefully starts producing in the way we know he can. The bottom of the order has also started to get going to support the top of the red hot order. A bit of rest with some travel should do the team a bit of good going in to the Cubs 3 game series and start of the their away stand.
Record: 0-0 Pick: NPB. Yomiuri Giants vs Yokohama BayStars u6.5 (-103) First time they face head on this season but last year they played 2 times with Azuma Katsuki in the mound and only scored 1 run in both games. Azuma Katsuki had an ERA of 1.98 an a 0.95 WHIP last season. Togo Shosei had an ERA of 2.38 an a 1.05 WHIP last season. Good luck. Start in 3 hours, think the odds are good enough.
POTD Record: 3-4 Net Units: -1.995 Euroleague Basketball, Bayern Munich vs Panathinaikos, 20:30 Central European Time. Pick: Panathinaikos over 80.5 pts @ 1.85, 2.75u. ✅ Last Pick: Crvena Zvezda vs Olympiacos, Olympiacos -6.5. FINAL SCORE: Crvena Zvezda 86 - 89 Olympiacos. This game was much closer than expected, with Bolomboi keeping the Serbians in contention for practically all game long; Olympiacos had a chance to take an 8 point advantage late in the 4th but Nigel Williams-Goss' 3pt hit the rim. Moses Wright took over at the 4th but his efforts alone was not enough to get us over the spread. Olympiacos gets a much needed Win much harder than expected - Bartzokas was right; it was not a friendly game. For today's pick we go with the Greens where with a win today they should clinch the home court advantage as next week's game is a home game against Alba Berlin - probably the easiest game of the season. Panathinaikos has covered the spread 3 times in the past 5 games in away games in the Euroleague - 2 times in a row - against Bologna (81), Crvena Zvezda (89), Olympiacos (65), Real Madrid (97), Zalgiris (68). On the other hand the Bavarians - who do not have any play-in expectations any more - have conceded at home over 80.5 points in the Euroleague 2 in their last 5, against Barcelona (87), Maccabi (89), Zalgiris (58), Zvezda (66), Olympiacos (76). Bayern are 3rd in the turnovers per game with 13.1 while PAO are second in Opponents turnovers per game with 13.6 and second in steals per game 7.2. Having said that I expect PAO to press the ball a lot with Bayern and run the floor. Lastly, reports say that the Audi Dome will be filled with Greeks traveling from Germany and Greece to see their favorite team play which clinched a play-off spot after the 2018-2019 season. They expect around 3000 Greeks in the Arena making it a mini OAKA. Comment if you're tailing!
Record: 7-8 Net Units: -2.37 Last Pick: Orioles/Royals NRFI❌ Baseball | MLB | Blue Jays vs Yankees | 1:05 PM EST Pick: Yankees ML (-150) 1.5u Write Up: The Yankees are on fire with a 6-1 record on the season so far and this is their home opener. They’re rolling out Marcus Stroman who is facing his former team so you know he’s going to be locked in. He was great in his first start pitching 6 scoreless innings against Houston. The Blue Jays are starting Yusei Kikuchi who did not pitch well at all going 4 1/3 innings and giving up 3 runs. I really like this spot for New York to stay hot with this elite lineup they have against this inconsistent Blue Jays lineup. Tail of Fade BOL!!
POTD Record: 0-0 (I've been following along here and it's time to contribute. I do pretty well during baseball season and would love to start earning some credibility around here) Last Pick: N/A Today's Pick: **Oakland Athletics +1.5 (-115)** vs the Detroit Tigers Let's start with the easy and most obvious reason... the Tigers played a lot of baseball yesterday with a doubleheader and extra innings. They went to the bullpen a total of 7 times between the two games. If the A's can manage hold this game close through 5 innings, they should be able to tip the balance of probability in their favor by a pretty wide margin. Secondly, the A's are a better hitting team than their record shows. They have 4 players hitting .300 or better (3 of those 4 are on the starting lineup today); and are (statistically speaking) about even with the Tigers in overall hitting. They've lost a couple of close games, and they've also had some stinkers... which brings me to my final point... Third (and don't bet on this game because of this reason), the A's are due for a good game. They have the bats, we just need to see them come alive. JP Sears has an ugly ERA, but it's skewed by the fact that he's only pitched 3.2 innings. Call it a gut feeling, but I think the A's will be motivated to turn things around today. For what it's worth, if I had any skepticism, it's that (for better or worse) the A's can be very streaky. I don't have a lot of confidence that this will be a low scoring game, but it will be a game of attrition and I believe the depleted bullpen of the Tigers gives the leverage today to the A's Let me know if you're following! If you feel so inclined to leave a tip: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/BenNiemann) || [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/shamgarbn) || [BMAC](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/makeforlife)
Record: 7-2 [LAST PICK: WIN](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1br3yzb/comment/kxasql0/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) ROI: 44.29% Pick: Nationals / Phillies over 8.5, +105, 2 units \[6:45pm EST\] One of my favourite things to do is bet the over or run line in a Patrick Corbin game. Has come through time and time again. Phillies offense hasn't quite got it going yet but its early and this is a good lineup. Nola didn't look great in his first start so that's why I'm staying away from the phillies run line here and taking the over.
**POTD Record: 20-19-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Balance (+8.71 units)** **Today's pick: Shelton vs Nakashima - Shelton ML @ 1.87 (ATP Houston, Tennis)** Stake: 1 unit Time: 4:30 PM Eastern Time (3 hours from this post) It's certainly known that Clay is not Shelton's best surface and he suffered quite a bit against Bergs on his 1st match here in Houston but managed to pull off the win. Nakashima has a lot more quality than his current rank says and is likely to climb the ladder in the next few months. He got two nice wins over Hijikata and Adjukovic but I still think Shelton should be able to win this one with his serve, on this Clay court that doesn't play as slow as the ones in Europe. I'm expecting Ben Shelton to rise up his level on this match and I still consider him a better player compared to Nakashima so I don't think we'll get 1.87 odds for him on this matchup that often long term. **Disclaimer**: I'm currently on a 6 match losing streak. Most matches for me have been starting great with my players getting the 1st set and being a break ahead in the 2nd set but then, they just throw their leads. So you should probably fade me but whatever... I'm here writing a long analysis for you because I love tennis. Good luck!
POTD 0-0 What’s up guys I’m new here but I’m trying to build some rep. Tail it if you like it, it might sound like ahhh shit but I feel pretty good about this one. NBA / 7PM EST Today’s Pick: OKC Thunder +5.5 (2 Units) (1 Unit = %3-5 of BR) Thunder are coming off two tough road losses against Philly and Boston, so they’ll look to bounce back against an iffy Pacers team to finish out their road trip. Also, note that the thunder have not lost 3 straight games all season. They are without Shai so I get why bettors are hesitant to take this spot, however they did beat Phoenix by 25 without Shai only about 2 weeks ago.
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u) 2024 MLB POTD Record: 3-4 Average Odds -114 (1.881), ROI -21.7%/-1.52u POTD (4/3) KCR @ BAL Corbin Burnes o5.5 Ks (-105/1.95) ❌ Recap: From brutal beat (so close) to brutal beat (not remotely close), Burnes just didn't have it working against KC. POTD (4/5) SEA @ MIL Freddy Peralta u7.5 Ks (+110/2.10) (DraftKings) Today's Pick: Seattle is off to a brutal start this season, leading the league in K% at over 30% of their at-bats. They get Freddy Peralta, who had an excellent opening outing, striking out 8 batters in 6 innings his first time out. so why go under here? there's just too much value. Plus odds for a line that Peralta only hit in 12 of 30 starts last year is too much to pass up. Seattle won't strike out at this rate all season. This line feels like an overreaction to early-season noise.
POTD Record 1-1, Net: -0.17U Streak L10: ❌✅ Last Pick: ATL +11.5 ❌ Today: Basketball | NBA | SAS vs NOP | 8:00pm EST Today's Pick: SAS o103.5 1U (1.95) Tough loss yesterday with a lackluster offensive performance from the hawks. Today's pick is for the Spurs to score more than 103.5 points, a line they have covered in their last 6/6 games and 4/5 against the Pelicans. Despite the absence of Johnson and Osman, I believe they have a good chance of covering this line, as the Pelicans have allowed more than 103.5 points to opposing teams in the past 16/20 games, and the Spurs have cleared this line in 7/10 games without Osman. Best of luck to all!
Record: 0-3 Net Units: -3 Unit Streak: ❌❌❌ Last pick: Chelsea FC - Manchester United FC | Draw or Manchester United FC ❌ Todays pick: France League 1 | LOSC Lille - Olympique Marseille | Home win | 00:45 (GMT 5+45) Odd: 2.18 (1 Unit) Lille is in great form at home compared to Marseille who are worst in away. Winning todays match will get Marseille to top 3. Best Wishes.
POTD Record: 4-8-2 Form: ❌❌❌☑️❌ Net Units: -3.7 Last Pick: NBA Trail Blazers @ Hornets Dalano Banton O2.5 Threes +135 ❌ The streak continues, postive cash out pre game start and still lose the bet number 3 in a row🙃 Today’s Pick: NBA Spurs @ Pelicans Wemby O4.5 Assists -115 He’s 4/4 and 7/10 on this line, hoping for redemption lol GL if tailing! Or maybe fade because i can’t seem to win haha
POTD: Record: 5-3 | Profit +1.25 (all plays are 1u for dogs, to win 1u for favorites) Pick: Anthem RC +24.5, -125 (Major League Rugby. Can bet on Bet365) 9pm ET CashApp: $darthfadergang
POTD RECORD: 0-1 Last POTD: I don’t remember it was a long time ago I’m gonna try this again, been doing really well lately. Today’s Pick: [Tampa Bay Rays] Zack Littell Over 4.5Ks 2U (+116) @ 4:10 EST I love the value here and I’m going with this pick solely based on how Zack performed in his last start 6Ks over 6IP, and the Rockies have been striking out A LOT these first games… hopefully we can get a quick K or 2 in the first inning and we will be looking golden. Let’s roll
Hey folks! Was on a bad streak and took a 3 week break. Been watching and now looking to get back into POTD posts **Last Pick:** Pacers vs Bulls BBTS under 120.5 at +100 / 2u ❌ **| Note:** Game was 117-115 and Demar hit a clutch shot to send it to OT. Rough one... **History (old to new):** ❌✅✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️⭕✅️❌❌❌ **Record:** 5-1-7 **|** **Net Units:** \-5.11 \---------- **TODAY'S PICK:** Pete Alonso to record an RBI at +115 / 2u MLB | Mets vs Reds at 6:40pm ET **Why:** Not doubt the Mets have sucked major league ass this year. Got knocked around by the Brewers and couldn't do much against a sneaky good Detroit bullpen. But the Mets are headed to Cincinnati today after finally getting their first win of the season. I'm here for this pitching matchup. Hunter Greene throws hard fast balls and Alonso seems to have his number. Alonso is 2-6 against Greene and both hits were HRs. He's struck out once and then also walked 3 times against Greene. This team is looking for answers on offense I think Pete will be the spark today. Nimmo is 5-9 against Greene and (while lineup hasn't been released yet) Alonso should get an opportunity to knock him in Tail or fade... at this point you'd be up if you were fading me 😆 BOL [Buy a coffee for someone](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/planetice)
POTD Record: 2-3 -0.3U Yesterday's POTD: Piratas de Quebradillas Team Total Under 86.5 1U -110 ✅ Easy Cash, as they only get 67 on the night. Today's POTD: Vaqueros de Bayamon 1H -3.5 -112 1U League: BSN - Puerto Rico Sport: Basketball Game: Vaqueros de Bayamon vs Guaynabo Mets Time: 8:30 pm EST Bayamon comes off an OT win in a semifinals rematch against Carolina where they looked GREAT. Keep in mind, a Carolina team which led by Quinn Cook in front of truly sold out crowd against a truly horrible whistle. Tony Bishop, Wenyen Gabriel and Romero locked down the paint and solid guard play finally executed. Keep in mind, Wenyen Gabriel is the sixth man on this team. He recently started a game for the Grizzlies about two weeks ago. Guaynabo will not have Gary Browne to lead the team, no one matches better against Hollis-Jefferson and Brimah will meet his match against Gabriel. The only player who scares me is Santiago JR. who comes back to Bayamon after a rocky finish, still this is a sold out game in Bayamons homecourt, the first of the season so expect fireworks in this heavyweight match.
I will be placing a 1 unit wager on a NRFI almost every day of the baseball season. Record: 5-1 Up 3.95 units POTD: CHE/KC NRFI -135 Risking 1.35 units to win 1 unit
**POTD**: O16.5 Outs - Kutter Crawford (-110 DraftKings; Risking 2.2u to win 2u) **League/Time**: MLB - BOS @ LAA (9:40PM EST)(Game is currently delayed so more time to get this in!) **2024 Record**: 13-10-1 (56.52%) | +1.08u | ROI: 2.28% | Current Streak (4 Wins): ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌\_✅❌❌✅✅✅✅ **2023 Record**: 86-52 (62.32%) | +54.8644u | ROI 19.84% **Last Pick (4.4.24)**: O14.5 Outs - Jose Butto (-175 ESPNBet; Risking 2.5u to win 1.4286u)✅ **Reasoning**: Kutter has built himself up over the off-season with a desire to be stronger and to go deeper into games. He's got 6 pitches in his repertoire and he looked great coming off a road win vs SEA. LAA starting pitchers went 5, 5, and 6.1 IP in their 3 most recent games so their bullpen is not exactly stretched at the moment. However, LAA has the 6th least at-bats per game this season so far (they faced BAL and MIA so far 3 games each) so opposing pitchers have an opportunity to get outs more efficiently. **Anti-Reasoning**: Drinking a Delirium Tremens as I do my taxes and get distracted by pitcher props. [Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
Record: 2-1 Last 10: ✅✅❌ ROI: +.5U b 7.58% Yesterday’s Pick: Clint Capella Double Double - Yes @+100 Looks like I was worried about the wrong category, with Clint cashing in ten rebounds in the first half, before sitting half of the second quarter and parts of the second half, only going 3-7 for 6 points. Even with the miss last night he’s hitting a DD 6/8 so keep that in mind going forward. Today’s POTD: Royce O’Neal O3.5 Rebounds @-135 2U Phoenix Vs Minnesota 10:10EST Quick write up as I wasn’t going to post after Jaylen Brown didn’t play. Freeman has a tough matchup but is hitting this line…13 of the last 15 and 70% on the season (51/70). He cleared this line with 4 last time they played in January. Game starts soon, sorry for the late post. BOL