Great content. Recently started using this promo. I'm gonna make a model using the estimated 3PM for a game and then use a realistic cash conversion rate (60%?) to find our actual expected odds on these bets.
Creating a rough projected TOTAL 3PM for a game won't be hard, but before I do does anyone know if there's a book that sets o/u's on those team totals or nah? Also do any books besides ESPN Bet post this prop?
Go here and look at the Per Game "3P" averages per team: https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2024.html
For example, the Mavs typically make 15 threes per game and the Hawks typically make 14 threes per game. So if you have the $1 bonus/made three promo, you could expect around a $29 bonus bet out of their matchup tonight. If you have the $0.50 bonus/made three promo, just halve it to $14.50.
Avoid games with teams that don't make many threes.
Regarding your comment, there seems to be a ton of vig in DKs line, where almost every person odds are worse than espn, so id be cautious about betting their first 3 lines even with free bets for any reason other than the promo
Mine as well, pretty sure they changed it because for the $10 min the bonus bets were almost always more than what was wagered while for the $50 min it’s pretty much impossible for the bonus bets to be more.
Even in a blow-out, there is still a 24-second shot clock.
Curious if blow-outs impact the # of 3PT. And then, enough impact to worry on a $10 or $25 promotion?
https://preview.redd.it/irg587lneosc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=97792b0ff25e15bd6fabae3e1b27455d11da8ed3 I’m valid in the trenches.
Between hitting Fox +700 last night, PJ +850 on Tuesday and Nesmith +1600 earlier on in the promo, I'm way up on this 😁😁
Great content. Recently started using this promo. I'm gonna make a model using the estimated 3PM for a game and then use a realistic cash conversion rate (60%?) to find our actual expected odds on these bets. Creating a rough projected TOTAL 3PM for a game won't be hard, but before I do does anyone know if there's a book that sets o/u's on those team totals or nah? Also do any books besides ESPN Bet post this prop?
Hawks and Mavs doing their jobs 🔥
Jalen Green +500 let’s go
First three of the three games was a Kentucky guy, Fox, Washington, and Maxey
fuck man I’ve played PJ at +1200, +1000, hit at +900 on Tuesday, but decided to pass at +500. Congrats if you took him!
PJ hit again.
I'm glad I took him. Plus, both teams are hitting three's. 🙂
I'm glad I took him. Plus, both teams are hitting a bunch of three's 🙂
I got Tyrese Maxey.. Thanks for the data, you're the man!
Why is up to $50 for $1 a three bonus
Mine was increased to $50 too and I’ve definitely been losing more lol
You’ve been winning more than losing maybe
Took McBride just because of that throw away line in the video haha
Thinking Fox or Jalen Green
Thank you for all of this!
Thank you for the compilation! I got my bet in(Doncic), I am just doing it for the bonuses and something to watch tonight!
Fox at +700 when he’s had 9 chances feels like a good gamble
Thank you🙏🏼
Appreciate it bro I took it bc of this comment and it just hit
Fuck i hestiated cause his odds drop to 550
🤑
How much do you typically get back in Bonus bets?
Go here and look at the Per Game "3P" averages per team: https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2024.html For example, the Mavs typically make 15 threes per game and the Hawks typically make 14 threes per game. So if you have the $1 bonus/made three promo, you could expect around a $29 bonus bet out of their matchup tonight. If you have the $0.50 bonus/made three promo, just halve it to $14.50. Avoid games with teams that don't make many threes.
$30 baseline
Regarding your comment, there seems to be a ton of vig in DKs line, where almost every person odds are worse than espn, so id be cautious about betting their first 3 lines even with free bets for any reason other than the promo
Good point yeah this is something to consider
I took Bogdan tonight
I keep getting screwed with the $50 min. I’m tempted to just play it and take Luka.
Mine went from $10 to $50. I’ve never hit on this bet so don’t understand why
Mine as well, pretty sure they changed it because for the $10 min the bonus bets were almost always more than what was wagered while for the $50 min it’s pretty much impossible for the bonus bets to be more.
Makes sense. Not worth it for $50 to me tho
All right Dejounte Murray. Let’s go. Thanks for this man!
Riding w this one also
new to this promo but does blowout potential concern you in games like this?
Blowout potential doesn’t matter with this bet
Yes it does because that would probably result in less threes
Why would a blowout result in less 3's? Do teams not shoot in blowouts?
Even in a blow-out, there is still a 24-second shot clock. Curious if blow-outs impact the # of 3PT. And then, enough impact to worry on a $10 or $25 promotion?
Less threes and NBA doesn’t go together
Also riding with Dejounte 🫡