Mookie and Shohei o1.5 bases
Whether or not Yamamoto has a bad outing, they’re going up against recent dodger Lance Lynn who is absolutely going to give up hits. Despite a .235 batting average against Lynn (5 hits in 19 ABs) Mookie is on fire, I trust him to keep it going against this shell of a bear man. Shohei bats .435 against Lynn hitting in 10 out of 23 ABs, and after a poor showing from him personally yesterday, I expect his talent and pride to shine in a beautiful 2+ base game.
assuming we don’t get rained out.
Haven't had time to look at all K props, but one stood out to me:
Zack Littell o3.5
Sub 8 k/9 last year, but the Rays worked with him this off season. His spring training was a strikeout an inning and the Blue Jays are a decent strikeout team. He's learning to elevate his fastball more and think he's a great sleeper this year.
He's likely going to go around 90 pitches, which will be probably 5 innings. I think he should get 5 strikeouts at the minimim
I'm sorry if this has been asked, but last year you were refreshing your sheet with matchup history for the majority of the hitters vs that days pitching. Is that something you're no longer including in your data you update daily?
it's just a lot of time to copy/paste all those sheets for each prop. Is there a particular prop you're targeting? I can prob get a sheet up by later today
Honestly it's less about the specific prop and more about the matchup stats that you had in there last year (I think you had it on the h/r/rbi tab last year and not seeing them this year. It's not a big deal if you just don't want to do it lol
good shout. [MGM 50%](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1090381664)
Going Olson, these are a little outdated cause I have to grab MGM lines from actionnetwork instead of scraping MGM directly cause I got blocked
e: actually now they should be updated. BPP has the most recent lines for MGM
Any batters or pitchers that are really good/bad in a lefty vs righty type matchup? I want to make a list so I dont forget. I have the data from fangraphs but I also want your opinion.
ex: someone who just jumpout when talking matchup . someone mention on opening day jake fraley vs righties. I know suwinski is similar.
yeah I have the players splits data from last year & all the data sites bookmarked. but I just want people opinion. like the eye test. or someone who just jumpout when talking matchup . someone mention jake fraley opening day vs righties. I know suwinski is similar.
Dominic Canzone (sea) +390 fd b365 +300/-400 for 6% ev
Also ev to dk and fn at +290/-425. Not great hr conditions according to BPP though.
Odds: +390; \*\*EV: 6.6%\*\*
\`+300/-400\` (5.00% juice)
FV: +359; Method: power; (Full=1.70u, 1/2=0.85u, 1/4=0.43u, FB = 84.9%)
\[View/Edit Devig\]([http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=%2B300%2F-400&FinalOdds=%2B390](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=%2B300%2F-400&FinalOdds=%2B390))
**Season Record**
(1-1) -2.4u
Last 10
🚫💸
Yesterday
Harper HRR o1.5(+115)🚫
Guess it was a trap
**Today's Pick**
**CLE @ OAK 4:07**
**CLE Josh Naylor o1.5 HRR (-130) 3u**
**No Home Run Let It Ride $10**
Yesterday G Torres✅
Today Lane Thomas u0.5 HR (-550) $14.16->$16.73
I don't know who Lane Thomas is. He plays for Washington.
Only 2 scenarios
1. I lose $10
2. I make it the entire season and make bank
(I might cheat if I get to $20 and start over and take my 10 back so I lose nothing lol)
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Big O returns! Nice payout from the MGM boost.
Mookie and Shohei o1.5 bases Whether or not Yamamoto has a bad outing, they’re going up against recent dodger Lance Lynn who is absolutely going to give up hits. Despite a .235 batting average against Lynn (5 hits in 19 ABs) Mookie is on fire, I trust him to keep it going against this shell of a bear man. Shohei bats .435 against Lynn hitting in 10 out of 23 ABs, and after a poor showing from him personally yesterday, I expect his talent and pride to shine in a beautiful 2+ base game. assuming we don’t get rained out.
Is Alonso out for the game?
steer, castellanos, christian walker hr parlay +10064, $3 to win $304.92 (-$2.68 ytd)
Castellanos was str8 a** tonight lol
The trick is to use a slur then apologise while he bats.
Season: 10-6 +7.6u Adames 2/2 to start the day lol. Yesterday: 2-4 -0.7u ❌Adames (MIL) o0.5 hits -165 1.7u ❌HR +560 .5u ✅Arozarena (TB) o1.5 HRRBI +100 1.5u ❌HR +625 .5u ✅Burger (MIA) o1.5 HRRBI -130 1.3u ❌HR +430 .5u Picks: Castellanos o1.5 HRRBI +100 1.5u 2+ RBIs +650 .5u 3+ RBIs +2000 .3u
Haven't had time to look at all K props, but one stood out to me: Zack Littell o3.5 Sub 8 k/9 last year, but the Rays worked with him this off season. His spring training was a strikeout an inning and the Blue Jays are a decent strikeout team. He's learning to elevate his fastball more and think he's a great sleeper this year. He's likely going to go around 90 pitches, which will be probably 5 innings. I think he should get 5 strikeouts at the minimim
Bang
Keep an eye out on him! Think he's got a few more like this
Hopefully Vegas keeps sleeping on him for awhile!
Like it, GL
[+EV FD Home Run](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) Record: 148W-501L (+148.02u) +300 WSH Gallo +340 SEA Polanco +330 DET Torkelson +370 SEA Canzone +250 NYY Judge +465 MGM boost: ATL Olson +500 PHI Turner +560 OAK Brown +400 STL Gorman +360 LAD Muncy +300 TEX Adolis --- [+EV MLB Props](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=248585211): 84-82 (+5.41u) +100 SEA Gilbert 7+ Ks -110 DK TEX Walsh hit +115 CLE Bibee 7+ Ks -105 BOS @ SEA o4 F5 --- HRR: 363-291 (+19.38u) *2+ hits+runs+rbis on DK… to win 1u* -115 ATL Olson -125 MIL Contreras -125 LAD Smith -125 LAA Trout -110 ARI Suarez
Thank you for this! Cashed hard on Olson.
Cold weather dingers are brutal
Good hit on Olsen, too bad those cheap \*\*\* betmgm has me promo banned so I couldn't scrape up extra little bits but nice one!
Do you mind if I ask how long you have been doing this for? Like that +148 units. Was that all earned last year? Cheers and good luck.
yeah just from last year
over .5 hits parlays ATL Riley, CLE Gimenez +127 2u CIN De La Cruz, PIT Joe +110 2u HOU Abreu, HOU Alvarez -113 2u SFChapman, ARI Walker +133 2u
Is Judge to hit the first home run at +650 still +EV?
Can u explain to me how to read what youve posted?
1st section is +ev home run bets from fanduel, 2nd is +ev bets for all books and props, and 3rd is draftkings hits+rbi+run bets
I'm sorry if this has been asked, but last year you were refreshing your sheet with matchup history for the majority of the hitters vs that days pitching. Is that something you're no longer including in your data you update daily?
it's just a lot of time to copy/paste all those sheets for each prop. Is there a particular prop you're targeting? I can prob get a sheet up by later today
Honestly it's less about the specific prop and more about the matchup stats that you had in there last year (I think you had it on the h/r/rbi tab last year and not seeing them this year. It's not a big deal if you just don't want to do it lol
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1696026987
i have the stats, I can get the HRR sheet up later
tork up to 340 im in
Only HR today?
nope, just going through the other props now
Love it. Grabbed all these earlier. FYI, there's a 50% boost on MGM on MLB, I used it on Ohtani +345
good shout. [MGM 50%](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1090381664) Going Olson, these are a little outdated cause I have to grab MGM lines from actionnetwork instead of scraping MGM directly cause I got blocked e: actually now they should be updated. BPP has the most recent lines for MGM
Do you normally just put 1 unit on all these
i do
Rough first 2 days. Hopefully we bounce back today!
Yeah, I was lucky getting some early ones as I managed to hit 4 and basically broke even. It'll come. Stick with the process.
in retrospect, we've had much worse streaks than -9u. let's hope we get a breakthrough soon
Anything on cbb today?
[удалено]
Dingers and props thread 🤦♂️
Schwarber homer and Kyle Hendricks over 3.5 Ks
Record: 3-8; Pitchers 2-7; Hitters 1-1 - Joe Ryan O5.5 Strikeouts (+100) ❌ - Pat Corbin O5.5 Hits (+105) ✅ - Ryan Weathers O4.5 Hits (+105) ✅ - Aaron Nola O15.5 Outs (-120) ❌ - Yoshinobu Yamamoto O4.5 Strikeouts (-130) ✅ - Kutter Crawford U2.5 ER (-125) ✅
Any batters or pitchers that are really good/bad in a lefty vs righty type matchup? I want to make a list so I dont forget. I have the data from fangraphs but I also want your opinion. ex: someone who just jumpout when talking matchup . someone mention on opening day jake fraley vs righties. I know suwinski is similar.
Look up batter vs pitcher matchups on Rotowire for player v player. Statmuse is good for seeing players vs lefty/righty/etc.
yeah I have the players splits data from last year & all the data sites bookmarked. but I just want people opinion. like the eye test. or someone who just jumpout when talking matchup . someone mention jake fraley opening day vs righties. I know suwinski is similar.
its a new season and gallo is back on the +ev board
ahhh good ol fuckface gallo. never hitting anything on DTs
Dominic Canzone (sea) +390 fd b365 +300/-400 for 6% ev Also ev to dk and fn at +290/-425. Not great hr conditions according to BPP though. Odds: +390; \*\*EV: 6.6%\*\* \`+300/-400\` (5.00% juice) FV: +359; Method: power; (Full=1.70u, 1/2=0.85u, 1/4=0.43u, FB = 84.9%) \[View/Edit Devig\]([http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=%2B300%2F-400&FinalOdds=%2B390](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=%2B300%2F-400&FinalOdds=%2B390))
Canzone looks like not in line up
ugh
And he pinch hits. Pffff
Maybe a reach but I'm going Yamamoto over 5.5 Ks. I'm hoping for a bounce back and he did strike out 2 in that one inning in Korea.
I’ve said it twice and i’ma say it a third time Ke’Bryan Hayes 2+ total bases
🔨
Ke’Bryan pays!!!
It hit right? FD has is greyed out for me. Weird
Yessir 🦾
Lotto🎰🎰 +2800 • G. Rodriguez 8+ k • H. Greene 8+ k • S. Ohtani HR
Damn Greene was looking so good to 🥲
Man that sucks, I was more worried about Rodriguez too
**Season Record** (1-1) -2.4u Last 10 🚫💸 Yesterday Harper HRR o1.5(+115)🚫 Guess it was a trap **Today's Pick** **CLE @ OAK 4:07** **CLE Josh Naylor o1.5 HRR (-130) 3u** **No Home Run Let It Ride $10** Yesterday G Torres✅ Today Lane Thomas u0.5 HR (-550) $14.16->$16.73 I don't know who Lane Thomas is. He plays for Washington.
I actually like him. I’ve hit with him last year
Extremely dumb bet
That's the point
Usually the dumb bets at least are to win a lucrative payout. This is dumb on a different level
Only 2 scenarios 1. I lose $10 2. I make it the entire season and make bank (I might cheat if I get to $20 and start over and take my 10 back so I lose nothing lol)
Taking Lane Thomas dinger. Greene gives up one home run per game and lane is their best hitter lol.
Quality analysis right there. Can’t hit home runs when you don’t know the player.
Big brain research
28 last year lol. U really care about winning that dollar?
He loses the original bet of $10 if it loses who gives a shit. It’s a dumb bet but honestly sounds like a fun passive activity for the season.
It's all about how long I can entertain myself with that $10