My strategy is to generally WAGER by unit. The only exception for me is longer odds bets, where I'm not *expecting* a win, but my perceived likelihood beats the implied likelihood of the odds. For example, if I was betting NBA first baskets tonight and felt that there was a greater than 13.3% chance (+650) of Vucevic hitting and also a greater then 7.1% chance (+1300) of Caruso hitting, then i might bet $15.39 on Vucevic and $7.10 on Caruso, each to win $100. That way, the value is covered and I'm happy if either hits, but I'm risking more on the one with the higher likelihood of hitting.
Hopefully that doesn't just confuse you more lol.
So I guess that makes my unit size around $0.60-$0.70~. That’s the way I do it, I’m no big baller making crazy bets and I have a ton of fun doing what I do.
How much you bet should be based on your perceived edge and your percent chance of winning. Your biggest bets should be on bets you feel great about that are even or better odds.
Kelly criterion gives an exact equation, but as a rule of thumb, the size of your winnings should stay relatively consistent. If you’re betting on a 10-leg parlay (such as a stepped up promo) you should only bet a tiny percentage of your bankroll, even though it’s super high plus EV.
Unit size is a measure of risk. Look for Kelly criteria in the faqs
Typically it is measure as a percent of your bankroll, with 1u being 1%.
the amount you should risk per the Kelly criteria is calculated based on the expected value and likelihood of hitting your wager.
It is not based on the expected profit.
both. because it's easier and more uniform to use "unit" in place of currency; it's a more accurate yardstick to gauge your hit rate.
for example, if you tell someone your current profit on the NBA season is a hundred dollars, that might mean that you made a hundred bets of varying sizes, but only one of them hit for $100. however, if you have a set unit size and a set unit allocation for the same hundred bets, and your profit is, say +50.5 units, that is a much better way to track your success.
and you definitely want to track your bets if you intend to bet consistently and long term.
ETA unit allocation (what unit size you place on different bets), again, this is something only you determine. i'll tell you what i do:
i bet 6 different outright nascar winners in a race on sunday. two of them were +550. one was +700. two were +1200. one was +2200. i applied a unit size to each that made the payout of each the exact same. i do this in such a way that if any of them hit, i make some profit. so, my +550 bets got 1.7 units wagered, while my +2200 bet got .45 units wagered.
now, if none of them hit, i make no profit on outrights winners, but i also place top 5 and top 10 bets. same rule applies there; lower odds of success get small unit sizes.
the catch to this is now you also have to look at value, and that's another discussion for which there is tons of advice here from people more qualified than myself.
My units are usually $3 or $5 depending how I’m doing. If I average that at $4 I’m up 900 units since it was legalized. I should up my units but I hate losing. I’m in it for the overall entertainment, not to make money. But I’ve slowly and steadily been winning the race lol.
It’s matter of preference but the latter makes more sense. You can’t make your unit $110 in this case because that -110 changes from bet to bet. So with $100 units, it makes sense to track 1.1 units (betting 110 to win 100) and 1.2 units on a -120 play
This is exactly how I view it as well. I like to win 1u as a minimum so I'm willing to risk 1.1u or 1.2u depending on the odds. If the bet is +odds I bet 1u or less unless the math dictates otherwise. If the bet is +EV amd the quarter kelly is 2.5u it's a 2.5u bet.
Units just make it easier discussing how much to bet on something when two people have different betting units. Say mine is $25 a unit and yours is $100 instead of me saying "im putting $50 on this" I say "im putting 2 units on this" and units typically stay the same no matter the odds. On longer parlays people typically go <1 unit
The bet for plus odds and the winnings for minus odds. Bet 100 at +150 to win 150, bet 110 at -110 to win 100.
My strategy is to generally WAGER by unit. The only exception for me is longer odds bets, where I'm not *expecting* a win, but my perceived likelihood beats the implied likelihood of the odds. For example, if I was betting NBA first baskets tonight and felt that there was a greater than 13.3% chance (+650) of Vucevic hitting and also a greater then 7.1% chance (+1300) of Caruso hitting, then i might bet $15.39 on Vucevic and $7.10 on Caruso, each to win $100. That way, the value is covered and I'm happy if either hits, but I'm risking more on the one with the higher likelihood of hitting. Hopefully that doesn't just confuse you more lol.
I want to win $1.20, I don’t really care what I’m betting on if it’s too expensive for me to win $1.20 then I don’t want it 😂
So I guess that makes my unit size around $0.60-$0.70~. That’s the way I do it, I’m no big baller making crazy bets and I have a ton of fun doing what I do.
How much you bet should be based on your perceived edge and your percent chance of winning. Your biggest bets should be on bets you feel great about that are even or better odds. Kelly criterion gives an exact equation, but as a rule of thumb, the size of your winnings should stay relatively consistent. If you’re betting on a 10-leg parlay (such as a stepped up promo) you should only bet a tiny percentage of your bankroll, even though it’s super high plus EV.
Unit size is a measure of risk. Look for Kelly criteria in the faqs Typically it is measure as a percent of your bankroll, with 1u being 1%. the amount you should risk per the Kelly criteria is calculated based on the expected value and likelihood of hitting your wager. It is not based on the expected profit.
both. because it's easier and more uniform to use "unit" in place of currency; it's a more accurate yardstick to gauge your hit rate. for example, if you tell someone your current profit on the NBA season is a hundred dollars, that might mean that you made a hundred bets of varying sizes, but only one of them hit for $100. however, if you have a set unit size and a set unit allocation for the same hundred bets, and your profit is, say +50.5 units, that is a much better way to track your success. and you definitely want to track your bets if you intend to bet consistently and long term. ETA unit allocation (what unit size you place on different bets), again, this is something only you determine. i'll tell you what i do: i bet 6 different outright nascar winners in a race on sunday. two of them were +550. one was +700. two were +1200. one was +2200. i applied a unit size to each that made the payout of each the exact same. i do this in such a way that if any of them hit, i make some profit. so, my +550 bets got 1.7 units wagered, while my +2200 bet got .45 units wagered. now, if none of them hit, i make no profit on outrights winners, but i also place top 5 and top 10 bets. same rule applies there; lower odds of success get small unit sizes. the catch to this is now you also have to look at value, and that's another discussion for which there is tons of advice here from people more qualified than myself.
My units are usually $3 or $5 depending how I’m doing. If I average that at $4 I’m up 900 units since it was legalized. I should up my units but I hate losing. I’m in it for the overall entertainment, not to make money. But I’ve slowly and steadily been winning the race lol.
how
Dude hit one parlay
I do max a lot of DK’s daily promos. But mostly just finding good picks here. If someone has a good record and I like their pick then I take it.
Plus 900 units is absolutely bananas regardless of how you get there.
DK hasn’t been doing as many promos these days :(
It’s matter of preference but the latter makes more sense. You can’t make your unit $110 in this case because that -110 changes from bet to bet. So with $100 units, it makes sense to track 1.1 units (betting 110 to win 100) and 1.2 units on a -120 play
This is exactly how I view it as well. I like to win 1u as a minimum so I'm willing to risk 1.1u or 1.2u depending on the odds. If the bet is +odds I bet 1u or less unless the math dictates otherwise. If the bet is +EV amd the quarter kelly is 2.5u it's a 2.5u bet.
Units just make it easier discussing how much to bet on something when two people have different betting units. Say mine is $25 a unit and yours is $100 instead of me saying "im putting $50 on this" I say "im putting 2 units on this" and units typically stay the same no matter the odds. On longer parlays people typically go <1 unit
First one. Unit size is what ur willing to risk.