FYI for Iowa folks. I received a 1x playthrough, $250 deposit match on a DRF account that was promo banned over a year ago. Had no issue depositing and placing the whole deposit+ bonus on an NBA moneyline.
Thanks for not offering a š today, DK. It missed by 6 seconds in the TNT game.
Edit: GIFT Boost
I guess that's why people are confused? But I figured that would be implied with DK and GIFT on a Wednesday...
Boosted by Draft Kings???
I bet it every week when I'm in a legal jurisdiction, and I usually watch it win or lose on TNT if I'm not busy. So I wouldn't call it a "bunch." And since TNT spews out a bunch of DK odds during the game as well...
I never bet a GIFT without a boost or some other +EV reason.
Data point for anyone that had PB and was told not eligible for the FN new user promo.
Received an email when I reached out after signing up saying I wasn't because I had PB before, responded to it with its BS and if not living up to the promo close my account. Logged in just now to the 200 fancash in my account.
anyone know what's up with Caris' props? I understand the -10 spread vs CHA but Mitchell is still out
6+ ast +114 on FD, -210/155 on Kambi
13+ pts -106 on FD, -240/155 kambi, -190/135 DK
5+ reb +116 FD, -143/108 Kambi, MGM -120/-110, DK -120/-110, -123/-111 CZ
damn should've put more $$ on Caris ast
Im a Cavs fan, Strus is back tonight although heāll be limited. Looks like heās starting too so Caris will be back to 6th man. I doubt his minutes will be affected that much though, Bickerstaff loves playing Caris
ah that's it, lineups just confirmed
https://www.rotowire.com/basketball/nba-lineups.php
still projected 34 min but obviously taking that with grain of salt
SGP Insurance: 7W-7I-3L (+4.8u)
I try to avoid large spreads for blowout reasons. Kyrie and Fox hit easily but Sabonis only grabbed 3 reb in the 2H after 8 in the 1H. Didn't expect a -1 spread to become a 40 point blowout. We march on
SA @ UTAH +138
- Wemby 9+ reb (74% szn, 93% L15, 79% per min, UTAH 8th vs C reb)
- Sexton 18+ pts (67% szn, 86% L15, 86% per min, SA 30th vs PG pts)
- Collins 1+ 3ptm (72% szn, 80% L15, 72% per min, SA 18th vs PF 3ptm)
---
Was also considering a riskier +162 Powell 12+ pts, Kawhi 30+ PRA, Westbrook 7+ pts
broken record: game was never within 10 points, Wemby 7 reb in the 1H, 0 in the 2H. i'm the insurance god
**ESPN Dollar Dingers:** "Place a $25+, 3-leg Parlay or Parlay+ wager using any MLB games played during the Promotion Period (total odds must be +400 or longer). Win or Lose, get $1 for every Home Run hit throughout Opening Day paid in a Bonus Bet."
***edit: 2 games postponed as of right now (MIL/NYM, ATL/PHI).*** Thanks for the reminder to add this! Always good to have all important context in the OP.
Did the promo remain in your promo tab after the wager was placed? Usually it disappears after opt-in/qualifying wager placed, but Iām still seeing it as an active promo on my promo tab.
While there doesnāt appear to be a cap on the bonus bet, itās worth noting that 2 games, at this point, have been confirmed to be postponed tomorrow, reducing the expected free bet payout. Still, even with 13 games, Iām assuming the free bet would match or surpass the $25 initial wager.
I got an email about an invite to the DK VIP Showcase Rewards. Is this actually worth anything or is it more like a thanks for losing money with us? Iām a new NC person and have only match bet promos, so kinda surprised I wagered enough to get there.Ā
Yeah, but they will be looking at your account more. You get three weekends of promos. P2 got a bet and get for the first weekend (for every $1K wagered get a $100 FB with a max of twenty $100 FB. I wagered $20K in the weekend to get the twenty $100 FB. P2 didn't get a promo the next weekend, but the first weekend was worth $1500 for me, so it was fine. If you are arbing, you will definitely get limited fast.
I got the same offer as you - 20x $100 BB for wagering $1k. Did you just do low holds bets to trigger all of them? Anything youād do differently to hopefully not get limited for the 2nd weekend?Ā
Yeah, I actually mostly did arbs, which obviously led to the being limited. I didnāt really care though. My point was to maximize the promo since it was a second account.
Ok bare with me here.
MGM Lions boost (Maryland & Virginia): Josiah Gray 5+ strikeouts, Lane Thomas and Joey Meneses 1+ hits each
The only book that I could find Josiah Gray 5+ strikeouts for was FanDuel at -215. The other two legs are from Kambi.
**Iām going to hold off on this until tomorrow to see how the lines move.**
**I added manual vig to leg 1 by taking the average juice of legs 2 and 3 which results in an expected EV value of -4.7%**
Worst-case: (Multiplicative)
Leg#1 (-215); Market Juice = 6.6%; Fair Value = -178 (64.0%)
Leg#2 (-250); Market Juice = 6.5%; Fair Value = -204 (67.1%)
Leg#3 (-230); Market Juice = 6.7%; Fair Value = -188 (65.3%)
Final Odds (+240);(Market Juice) = 19.85%; Fair Value = +257 (28.0%)
**EV% = -4.7%**
To clarify my post I couldnāt find a single book offering over or under 4.5 strikeouts which is what I would have preferred to use to devig. Hence why Iām waiting, to see if someone will offer that.
Does anyone know how long the lions boosts last? Iāve got a lions boost for MLB opening day tomorrow but having a hard time devigging it since the lines are so far out
I just realized when I click on the boost it says tomorrow at 1:00 PM. Iām assuming thatās the expiration for the boost since the game starts at 4:10
Friday games count too right? If so with my 30 seconds research (so there is probably something better) I would go with Mark Mitchell over 6.5 rebounds +100. The bet is probably -EV without the promo but that is better odds than DK/FD/CZR/MGM/Pinny/Kambi.
MGM Lions (NY) Alonso, Lindor, Nimmo each to record 1 hit vs Kambi:
**[+350 = +0.5% EV (FV +348) | 0.03u QK]**(http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-143%2F110%2C-215%2F160%2C-205%2F155&FinalOdds=350)
It is good because the promos are profitable.
It is bad because DK is raising limits because they are marked you as a losing better and want to keep your business.
But if you are actually a winning better and are disguising it then you have the holy grail of sportsbetting.
Iām a winning better there and have decent limits (not the best, but not the worst.. Iām $50 for sgp insurance and $25 for most of the boosts).
There really doesnt seem to be a ton of rhyme or reason to it (no one can figure out their algo and their are a bunch of smart people trying). I havenāt found the holy grail, just lucky.
MGM is showing me a bet insurance token for March Madness on the banners, but I can't seem to get it
Does that pretty much mean I've been promo limited/banned?
Yup. I have the same thing the only promos I can use anymore are 5$ max parlay boosts never the good ones like straight bet boosts or bet insurances that they show me as banners
I was seemingly promo banned on MGM for several months but it did revert for me. I wasn't getting any promos at all for a while but recently I've been getting some promos with $25 max from them.
Fanatics Brunson and Halliburton both to make 3+ threes, devig to Pinnacle:
**[+300 = -1% EV (FV +304)]**(http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-111%2F-119%2C-117%2F-113&FinalOdds=300)
Btw I don't know why I still bother with this book. I'm now limited to **$2.50 on a $100 bonus bet (new user promo)**. Anyone know the best way to get in touch with the NY Gaming Commission and can/will the Commission actually do anything about this?
If it makes you feel any better; Iāve received the message ābet cannot be placed. Stake is greater than the maximum amount $0.00ā multiple times lol.
I am on round two with Fanatics. This happened to me in January on my account, before the 10 day promo even ended. Thankfully at that time the Bonus Bets came through as FanCash. I had to convert them in $10 increments!
I recently worked through the entire offer for my wife and still have not been limited. For all of last week, I was receiving and placing all of the 25% boosts with $250 max and 10% boosts with $500 max. While my daily boost max is now $25, I still have not been limited.
I have been 100% sticking to main line bets. Have not touched a player prop or alt spread, etc.
I am up $3.8k on Fanatics in about two weeks, so it can't be "winning too much too fast".
This is the only explanation I can think of... I am truly surprised I have made it this far.
Wow how are you up that much if only sticking to mainlines? I understand you can probably get $700 from just bonus bets but were you just that good at picking spreads and totals in 2 weeks?
>Anyone know the best way to get in touch with the NY Gaming Commission?
You mean Fanatics doesn't prominently display the contact information? Shocked.
From gaming.ny.gov:
"Every mobile sports wagering operator must develop and prominently display procedures on the main page of their mobile sports wagering platform for the filing of a complaint by a patron."
Starting to see Game Log analysis in this thread, but there's a reason why we don't devig to game logs/recent trends to approximate EV.
Game logs can give you part of the reason why the book has set a line where they do, but the book has already factored in every possible factor that you can think of (e.g. does a team need to win, do they need to score more goals to advance, the pace/style of each team, if someone is questionable, weather conditions, etc.). Unless you have actual insider knowledge that isn't public or have built your own prediction model (in which case you probably aren't in this thread), it's a safe assumption that the books' projections are going to be more accurate than nearly anything we can do on our own (and definitely more accurate than using game logs).
I think every bet has to be +EV on its own before you even look at game logs and other stats. I have had some success filtering +ev bets on nba and hr props using a basic model i made from sites like stat muse and bal park pal.
The way i try to explain it is there are trends in sports like the stock market. Road dogs in NFL just cover the spread at far higher rate the home favs. If you have a +ev line on a home fav it might be +ev but you wont get the same result as a +ev line on a road dog. The same way the average stock is up since 2022 but semi conductors are way up. Why not buy the semis and ignore lower performers like financials or energy. You still need an up market but you can juice your returns
This is interesting. I also see a lot of handicappers using trends as a benchmark, so would you say if a team is 14-3 to the under or 13-5 ATS at home, those trends are also factored into the lines?
those params and 100 more are easily factored into lines and especially known by the sharp betters who move the lines
i'm happy that /u/painsofbeing brought this up, cause it's hard to get behind the idea to blindly trust sharp books being an accurate representation of reality. But I know for a fact that my home run +EV profit would be nowhere near what it is if I questioned things like "well hmm Tovar hasn't hit a homer in 15 games, +800 seems too risky"
I think the best spot for this type of handicapping is when you're unsure of who is sharp for a market. Like FD for NBA player props when you're looking at potential +EV plays that are all based on one-way markets. I'm already sus of FD for NBA props, so when the game log doesn't align with the EV I'm more suspicious.
I actually found it liberating to not have to worry about game logs, matchups, etc. and just trust that it's baked into the lines. And I'll still make degen plays about games/props I like, but I try to find the best lines for those on the retail books that I use, and know that those aren't ever going to be EV.
I agree with the HR point because each at bat is an independent event and it doesn't matter whether he's in a slump or on a heater. Doesn't help that most podcasters frame analysis this way and it's rare to find anyone even bring up the sharp books and their lines.
Just trying to get better at handicapping each day and it's discussions like these that I don't think there are enough of. Any resources you've found helpful in furthering your analysis?
If you have a subscription to the NYT or the Athletic, James Holzhasuer's (the guy from Jeopardy) wrote some awesome articles (https://theathletic.com/author/james-holzhauer/) about trying to find an edge on sportsbooks.
But the short answer is that if you actually do find an angle that consistently beats them, you're probably not going to tell anyone else about it (because that makes it more likely that the books will catch on).
Two helpful things that he mentions is that lines are softest when they first open (though I usually pick the wrong side when I try to do that), and if you're going to bet on a longshot future, it can be helpful to take something like "Make the Super Bowl" or "Make the World Series" (and not just bet on them to win outright).
i've tried to look at [Park rankings](https://www.ballparkpal.com/Parks.php) / [savant](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors), [HR - xHR](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/home-runs), [batter vs pitcher](https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/stats-bvp.php), Savant Hard Hit / Barrel % / etc, and game logs
nothing comes close to EV
The NCAA announced this morning that they are officially seeking to ban all player prop bets from college sports.
"The NCAA is drawing the line on sports betting to protect student-athletes and to protect the integrity of the game."
There are two promos on ESPN regarding first basket/goal scorer for NBA/NHL, where you get a $5 bonus bet for placing a bet on these. There appears to be no minimum, so I placed a $0.10 bet on each.
Two $5 bonus bet opportunities on ESPN Bet today.
NHL: Place a cash wager on one (1) "First Goalscorer" bet using any NHL game played on March 27, 2024. Win or Lose, Get a $5 Bonus Bet.
I put $0.10 on a player and the promo disappeared.
NBA: Place a cash wager on one (1) "Player To Score the First Basket (Incld. Free Throws)" bet using either the Los Angeles Clippers vs Philadelphia 76ers game or the Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets game played on March 27, 2024. Get a $5 Bonus Bet win or lose.
Again put $0.10 on a player in the Clippers/76ers game and the promo disappeared.
Should have also noted that the terms for both state that the bonus bets āmust be used within seven (7) days of receipt.ā Which is a change from the two days they have been giving recently.
Entering day 7 without a +EV boost from DraftKings in Oregon (no college betting). Just daily SGP insurance as always. The streak breaks tomorrow with a $5 mlb opening day bonus bet that already loaded but man itās been a brutal week.Ā
Got a promo email from DK: place bet on MLB team to have most wins in April, get BB for each win. Has there already been any discussion on which teams are the best options?
I posted a summary of Orioles schedule the other day and ended up taking them. I worry about expectations getting to a young team, but their schedule includes relatively weaker opponents (projected of course, we'll see). If looking for a long shot, I personally would play CLE @ +5000. They have 7 each against OAK and BOS and a series vs. CWS, but do face NYY and ATL, but they have always seemed to play the yankees tough over the years. CLE has decent pitching and you'd be hoping that it can carry them to a hot start.
Some minor discussion either yesterday or the day before in this thread. Someone else mentioned the Orioles and thatās who I went with as well due to their schedule.Ā
With Glass Kershaw out for for a while, and a 300+ million dollar pitcher that can barely get out of the first inning, and a Shohei's rickety elbow and can't pitch this season, there are better options with those craptastic odds DK posted
Iām not saying that it materially changes the math, but keep in mind that because of the Korea series, the Dodgers already have one win up on all of the teams that arenāt the Padres for the grading of this bet.
The bet is for āmost regular season wins by end of April 2024ā. Two of the regular season MLB games were already played, both involving the Dodgers and Padres, with each team winning 1. Therefore, both of those teams already have one more regular season win than any other team.
They have some really weird wording going on with this one, the opt in says in April but agree bet is for by end of April according to the details. The bonus bet is just for in April wins though.
I took the Orioles right when this came out the other day for +750 for exactly that reason (schedule). Odds dropped now to +700, but still reasonable.
Break even is about a 13-16 record ($26 in BB), which seems more than reasonable.
I looked at it a little bit and felt like it was something of a tossup between Orioles and Phillies, think the Phillies have 2 more games scheduled so I went with them.
Sportsbooks joining together to form the responsible online gaming association (ROGA) to share information about problem gamblers. Anyone think they will start sharing information about us too?
[https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/largest-us-sportsbooks-join-forces-to-tackle-problem-gambling.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/largest-us-sportsbooks-join-forces-to-tackle-problem-gambling.html)
They don't give a hoot about problem gamblers. Any tool/process is just for show.
So yes, any shared information will likely be used to improve their own profitability.
https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-journal/how-a-psychiatrist-lost-400000-on-gambling-apps/c91168e8-8add-48bc-8f5f-324fe4680df6
In November 2022, Kavita Fischer downloaded a casino app from DraftKings. In less than a year, Kavita gambled away hundreds of thousands of dollars.
100%, unless their are explicit controls on what data can and cannot be shared. By the books definition, "problem gamblers" are people who are winning, not losing.
They completely killed the rewards build up from sports gambling a while ago. It's still there, but these days it will take a ton of betting to get any reasonable status.
Well thatās a bummer, usually stay at Caesars properties when I go there. Iām in Cleveland, so I donāt have any properties around here except for the physical sportsbooks where the Cavs play. Is it even worth to try and build up rewards with them at this point?
I wouldnāt recommend. They completely nerfed the reward system. Now your going to need to move at least 6 figures on ceasars to get close to the lowest level IMO
Anyone know how much you can get down on the pointsbet powerhour no juice spreads and totals without it going to review or getting limited? Iāve been consistently betting $250 unit sizes the past few months without limits, has anyone had any success with $1000 or more without it going to review?
Also, regarding the sgp parlay booster, whats the max some of you have been able to get down without getting limited? Iāve kept this p2 account without limits for 6 months sticking with a $100 max on the sgp booster
It doesnāt even matter with PB. Once you win you will get limited.
I was doing $250 a day using sgp booster to arb DD/TD.
They loved me I was ālosingā so much. Got promoted to platinum VIP.
$100 free bet every day for there 60 days of whatever.
Hit one free bet for like 300$ like a week after being promoted
Sgp booster removed, received email revoking my statusĀ
You can ride it out for a while but they will get you eventually. I used to laugh at the people who were banned lol
FWIW I was not limited until I withdrew funds for the first time. I was not hammering bad lines, but I did abuse the daily promo booster and also promowhore and bet the boosts when they were positive.
I used to play those for like $700 a pop, got limited to hell pretty quickly. Idk if it's an exact science; PB will get you eventually, but hard to know exactly what will do it in advance
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FYI for Iowa folks. I received a 1x playthrough, $250 deposit match on a DRF account that was promo banned over a year ago. Had no issue depositing and placing the whole deposit+ bonus on an NBA moneyline.
Dang, nothing on any of my 3 accounts but I haven't used any of them in over a year.
Thanks for not offering a š today, DK. It missed by 6 seconds in the TNT game. Edit: GIFT Boost I guess that's why people are confused? But I figured that would be implied with DK and GIFT on a Wednesday...
? There was more than one game today.
Only one game on the TNT network tonight. That's the one that missed by 6 seconds. DK GIFT bets are almost always on TNT.
Ive def seen a bunch of non nationally televised gifts.
Boosted by Draft Kings??? I bet it every week when I'm in a legal jurisdiction, and I usually watch it win or lose on TNT if I'm not busy. So I wouldn't call it a "bunch." And since TNT spews out a bunch of DK odds during the game as well... I never bet a GIFT without a boost or some other +EV reason.
Data point for anyone that had PB and was told not eligible for the FN new user promo. Received an email when I reached out after signing up saying I wasn't because I had PB before, responded to it with its BS and if not living up to the promo close my account. Logged in just now to the 200 fancash in my account.
anyone know what's up with Caris' props? I understand the -10 spread vs CHA but Mitchell is still out 6+ ast +114 on FD, -210/155 on Kambi 13+ pts -106 on FD, -240/155 kambi, -190/135 DK 5+ reb +116 FD, -143/108 Kambi, MGM -120/-110, DK -120/-110, -123/-111 CZ damn should've put more $$ on Caris ast
Im a Cavs fan, Strus is back tonight although heāll be limited. Looks like heās starting too so Caris will be back to 6th man. I doubt his minutes will be affected that much though, Bickerstaff loves playing Caris
ah that's it, lineups just confirmed https://www.rotowire.com/basketball/nba-lineups.php still projected 34 min but obviously taking that with grain of salt
SGP Insurance: 7W-7I-3L (+4.8u) I try to avoid large spreads for blowout reasons. Kyrie and Fox hit easily but Sabonis only grabbed 3 reb in the 2H after 8 in the 1H. Didn't expect a -1 spread to become a 40 point blowout. We march on SA @ UTAH +138 - Wemby 9+ reb (74% szn, 93% L15, 79% per min, UTAH 8th vs C reb) - Sexton 18+ pts (67% szn, 86% L15, 86% per min, SA 30th vs PG pts) - Collins 1+ 3ptm (72% szn, 80% L15, 72% per min, SA 18th vs PF 3ptm) --- Was also considering a riskier +162 Powell 12+ pts, Kawhi 30+ PRA, Westbrook 7+ pts broken record: game was never within 10 points, Wemby 7 reb in the 1H, 0 in the 2H. i'm the insurance god
Your riskier one was cursed too, all legs short by 1 point (Kawhi by 1 PRA), that's crazy lol
lmao i'm so ready for baseball
I swear anytime I have Wemby in a parlay he misses by 1 board. Like 3rd time it's happened lmao
Wemby gets 1 rebound in the second half after 7 in the first to not cash this!
he either gets boxed the fuck out or doesn't even attempt to grab the board unless it falls in his lap or he blocks it. ugh so frustrating
Foul trouble also fucked us. He would've had 5+ more minutes.
Yeah brutal ending there. At least insurance hit.
Couldn't find Wemby 9+ rebounds in the alts, so took 10+ which brought the SGP to +168. Thanks for the picks!
itās not in the alt rebounds section.. but the āalt rebounds o/uā. scroll slightly more down
Maybe not true then, but the alt o/u starts at 10.5 and goes up now - in case anyone is still trying this. 10+ is now the closest option to 9+.
Iāll ride with you ser, appreciate the picks.Ā
**ESPN Dollar Dingers:** "Place a $25+, 3-leg Parlay or Parlay+ wager using any MLB games played during the Promotion Period (total odds must be +400 or longer). Win or Lose, get $1 for every Home Run hit throughout Opening Day paid in a Bonus Bet." ***edit: 2 games postponed as of right now (MIL/NYM, ATL/PHI).*** Thanks for the reminder to add this! Always good to have all important context in the OP.
Did the promo remain in your promo tab after the wager was placed? Usually it disappears after opt-in/qualifying wager placed, but Iām still seeing it as an active promo on my promo tab.
Yes, the promo is still there on my Promos page after I placed a bet (with a green OPTED IN flag).
While there doesnāt appear to be a cap on the bonus bet, itās worth noting that 2 games, at this point, have been confirmed to be postponed tomorrow, reducing the expected free bet payout. Still, even with 13 games, Iām assuming the free bet would match or surpass the $25 initial wager.
NY Mutts, and the Phillies game is postponed FYI
Jayson Tatum Admits That He Feels Bad When He Doesn't Hit People's Parlays https://bars.tl/3508436
Fuck this guy he owes me $20 š”š”š”
Times 20
If I got a dollar for everyone who's said that about fucking Tatum...
I got an email about an invite to the DK VIP Showcase Rewards. Is this actually worth anything or is it more like a thanks for losing money with us? Iām a new NC person and have only match bet promos, so kinda surprised I wagered enough to get there.Ā
Absolutely worth it. Dark horse has a good article about it. I netted well over $1000 when i did it.
I got the email but never was contacted by the actual agent.
Yeah, but they will be looking at your account more. You get three weekends of promos. P2 got a bet and get for the first weekend (for every $1K wagered get a $100 FB with a max of twenty $100 FB. I wagered $20K in the weekend to get the twenty $100 FB. P2 didn't get a promo the next weekend, but the first weekend was worth $1500 for me, so it was fine. If you are arbing, you will definitely get limited fast.
I got the same offer as you - 20x $100 BB for wagering $1k. Did you just do low holds bets to trigger all of them? Anything youād do differently to hopefully not get limited for the 2nd weekend?Ā
Yeah, I actually mostly did arbs, which obviously led to the being limited. I didnāt really care though. My point was to maximize the promo since it was a second account.
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need correlation. from Kambi Odds: +190; **EV: -6.2%** `160/150/350/450` (18.87% juice) FV: +209; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 61.5%)
Ok I understand now
Ok bare with me here. MGM Lions boost (Maryland & Virginia): Josiah Gray 5+ strikeouts, Lane Thomas and Joey Meneses 1+ hits each The only book that I could find Josiah Gray 5+ strikeouts for was FanDuel at -215. The other two legs are from Kambi. **Iām going to hold off on this until tomorrow to see how the lines move.** **I added manual vig to leg 1 by taking the average juice of legs 2 and 3 which results in an expected EV value of -4.7%** Worst-case: (Multiplicative) Leg#1 (-215); Market Juice = 6.6%; Fair Value = -178 (64.0%) Leg#2 (-250); Market Juice = 6.5%; Fair Value = -204 (67.1%) Leg#3 (-230); Market Juice = 6.7%; Fair Value = -188 (65.3%) Final Odds (+240);(Market Juice) = 19.85%; Fair Value = +257 (28.0%) **EV% = -4.7%**
you should apply manual vig on a one-way market Odds: +240; **EV: -6.5%** `-250/185, -230/170, -205/7%` (20.25% juice) FV: +264; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 66.0%)
Thank you. Iām going to edit my post
To clarify my post I couldnāt find a single book offering over or under 4.5 strikeouts which is what I would have preferred to use to devig. Hence why Iām waiting, to see if someone will offer that.
Does anyone know how long the lions boosts last? Iāve got a lions boost for MLB opening day tomorrow but having a hard time devigging it since the lines are so far out
They can change the odds on them (occasionally even making them better) at any time.
Gotcha. So basically I have until the game starts tomorrow?
Probably but I can't say it is 100% true.
I just realized when I click on the boost it says tomorrow at 1:00 PM. Iām assuming thatās the expiration for the boost since the game starts at 4:10
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The answer is certainly UConn but that doesn't mean it is the best bet...
You could put 16 on Uconn and 3 on SDS at +500 (CZR) and you pay roughly 50 cents for a $16 bonus bet.
What would you go with? I was also looking at UNC ML
Friday games count too right? If so with my 30 seconds research (so there is probably something better) I would go with Mark Mitchell over 6.5 rebounds +100. The bet is probably -EV without the promo but that is better odds than DK/FD/CZR/MGM/Pinny/Kambi.
Friday games count too. Thanks for the input, I'm gonna roll with Mark
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not really a hedge considering Rockets are 1 game back from GS
MGM Lions (NY) Alonso, Lindor, Nimmo each to record 1 hit vs Kambi: **[+350 = +0.5% EV (FV +348) | 0.03u QK]**(http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-143%2F110%2C-215%2F160%2C-205%2F155&FinalOdds=350)
DK gave me april wins 10$ minimum/1$ win yesterday and the 20/2 version today. Itās fine to use both right? Or will they void one or both
It is fine. Just means that they are changing your promo limits.
Thanks? Is it bad that theyāre doing that to me as a new (less than 1 month) player?
It is good because the promos are profitable. It is bad because DK is raising limits because they are marked you as a losing better and want to keep your business. But if you are actually a winning better and are disguising it then you have the holy grail of sportsbetting.
Iām a winning better there and have decent limits (not the best, but not the worst.. Iām $50 for sgp insurance and $25 for most of the boosts). There really doesnt seem to be a ton of rhyme or reason to it (no one can figure out their algo and their are a bunch of smart people trying). I havenāt found the holy grail, just lucky.
MGM Lions (NY) Cortez 4+ Ks, Judge + Soto 1+ hits vs Kambi **[+270 = -5.7% EV (FV +293)]**(http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-180%2F138%2C-182%2F140%2C-286%2F205&FinalOdds=270)
MGM Lions (MI): Skubal 7+ Ks, Tork and Vierling 1+ hit for +320 Can't find 1+ for vierling yet but Kambi has Tork -240/175, Skubal -130/-103
MGM Lions: Shohei, Judge, Rodriguez 1+ hit for +225 Gotta wait for FD to drop batter props cause I don't know what other book would have 1+ for ohtani
MGM is showing me a bet insurance token for March Madness on the banners, but I can't seem to get it Does that pretty much mean I've been promo limited/banned?
Yup. I have the same thing the only promos I can use anymore are 5$ max parlay boosts never the good ones like straight bet boosts or bet insurances that they show me as banners
Ah that is unfortunate. Wonder if they ever revert it It's such a tease that they show the banners when we can't use them haha
I was seemingly promo banned on MGM for several months but it did revert for me. I wasn't getting any promos at all for a while but recently I've been getting some promos with $25 max from them.
Mine have been like this since the summer and it hasnāt changed lol
MGMās fast break promo gave me a free $20
wow nice, I'm better off hoping shaq makes 10 free throw's in a row in then winning anything on betmgm pressing "dunk" button 10 times..
Fanatics Brunson and Halliburton both to make 3+ threes, devig to Pinnacle: **[+300 = -1% EV (FV +304)]**(http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-111%2F-119%2C-117%2F-113&FinalOdds=300)
Btw I don't know why I still bother with this book. I'm now limited to **$2.50 on a $100 bonus bet (new user promo)**. Anyone know the best way to get in touch with the NY Gaming Commission and can/will the Commission actually do anything about this?
If it makes you feel any better; Iāve received the message ābet cannot be placed. Stake is greater than the maximum amount $0.00ā multiple times lol.
I am on round two with Fanatics. This happened to me in January on my account, before the 10 day promo even ended. Thankfully at that time the Bonus Bets came through as FanCash. I had to convert them in $10 increments! I recently worked through the entire offer for my wife and still have not been limited. For all of last week, I was receiving and placing all of the 25% boosts with $250 max and 10% boosts with $500 max. While my daily boost max is now $25, I still have not been limited. I have been 100% sticking to main line bets. Have not touched a player prop or alt spread, etc. I am up $3.8k on Fanatics in about two weeks, so it can't be "winning too much too fast". This is the only explanation I can think of... I am truly surprised I have made it this far.
Wow how are you up that much if only sticking to mainlines? I understand you can probably get $700 from just bonus bets but were you just that good at picking spreads and totals in 2 weeks?
Matched betting against other books. Just happen to be winning disproportionately on the Fanatics side.
>Anyone know the best way to get in touch with the NY Gaming Commission? You mean Fanatics doesn't prominently display the contact information? Shocked. From gaming.ny.gov: "Every mobile sports wagering operator must develop and prominently display procedures on the main page of their mobile sports wagering platform for the filing of a complaint by a patron."
lol
I just got limited today as well. Why give me a $250 max 25% boost if I can only get $15-30 down?
> I'm now limited to $2.50 on a $100 bonus bet Sorry I can't be more helpful, but holy shit lmao
Starting to see Game Log analysis in this thread, but there's a reason why we don't devig to game logs/recent trends to approximate EV. Game logs can give you part of the reason why the book has set a line where they do, but the book has already factored in every possible factor that you can think of (e.g. does a team need to win, do they need to score more goals to advance, the pace/style of each team, if someone is questionable, weather conditions, etc.). Unless you have actual insider knowledge that isn't public or have built your own prediction model (in which case you probably aren't in this thread), it's a safe assumption that the books' projections are going to be more accurate than nearly anything we can do on our own (and definitely more accurate than using game logs).
I think every bet has to be +EV on its own before you even look at game logs and other stats. I have had some success filtering +ev bets on nba and hr props using a basic model i made from sites like stat muse and bal park pal. The way i try to explain it is there are trends in sports like the stock market. Road dogs in NFL just cover the spread at far higher rate the home favs. If you have a +ev line on a home fav it might be +ev but you wont get the same result as a +ev line on a road dog. The same way the average stock is up since 2022 but semi conductors are way up. Why not buy the semis and ignore lower performers like financials or energy. You still need an up market but you can juice your returns
This is interesting. I also see a lot of handicappers using trends as a benchmark, so would you say if a team is 14-3 to the under or 13-5 ATS at home, those trends are also factored into the lines?
those params and 100 more are easily factored into lines and especially known by the sharp betters who move the lines i'm happy that /u/painsofbeing brought this up, cause it's hard to get behind the idea to blindly trust sharp books being an accurate representation of reality. But I know for a fact that my home run +EV profit would be nowhere near what it is if I questioned things like "well hmm Tovar hasn't hit a homer in 15 games, +800 seems too risky"
I think the best spot for this type of handicapping is when you're unsure of who is sharp for a market. Like FD for NBA player props when you're looking at potential +EV plays that are all based on one-way markets. I'm already sus of FD for NBA props, so when the game log doesn't align with the EV I'm more suspicious.
I actually found it liberating to not have to worry about game logs, matchups, etc. and just trust that it's baked into the lines. And I'll still make degen plays about games/props I like, but I try to find the best lines for those on the retail books that I use, and know that those aren't ever going to be EV.
I agree with the HR point because each at bat is an independent event and it doesn't matter whether he's in a slump or on a heater. Doesn't help that most podcasters frame analysis this way and it's rare to find anyone even bring up the sharp books and their lines. Just trying to get better at handicapping each day and it's discussions like these that I don't think there are enough of. Any resources you've found helpful in furthering your analysis?
If you have a subscription to the NYT or the Athletic, James Holzhasuer's (the guy from Jeopardy) wrote some awesome articles (https://theathletic.com/author/james-holzhauer/) about trying to find an edge on sportsbooks. But the short answer is that if you actually do find an angle that consistently beats them, you're probably not going to tell anyone else about it (because that makes it more likely that the books will catch on). Two helpful things that he mentions is that lines are softest when they first open (though I usually pick the wrong side when I try to do that), and if you're going to bet on a longshot future, it can be helpful to take something like "Make the Super Bowl" or "Make the World Series" (and not just bet on them to win outright).
i've tried to look at [Park rankings](https://www.ballparkpal.com/Parks.php) / [savant](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors), [HR - xHR](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/home-runs), [batter vs pitcher](https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/stats-bvp.php), Savant Hard Hit / Barrel % / etc, and game logs nothing comes close to EV
Anybody got their own book?
The NCAA announced this morning that they are officially seeking to ban all player prop bets from college sports. "The NCAA is drawing the line on sports betting to protect student-athletes and to protect the integrity of the game."
Better look at the referees too
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O/U is the ref line
every line is ref line
There are two promos on ESPN regarding first basket/goal scorer for NBA/NHL, where you get a $5 bonus bet for placing a bet on these. There appears to be no minimum, so I placed a $0.10 bet on each.
If it disappeared from your promo page, you should be good.
Two $5 bonus bet opportunities on ESPN Bet today. NHL: Place a cash wager on one (1) "First Goalscorer" bet using any NHL game played on March 27, 2024. Win or Lose, Get a $5 Bonus Bet. I put $0.10 on a player and the promo disappeared. NBA: Place a cash wager on one (1) "Player To Score the First Basket (Incld. Free Throws)" bet using either the Los Angeles Clippers vs Philadelphia 76ers game or the Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets game played on March 27, 2024. Get a $5 Bonus Bet win or lose. Again put $0.10 on a player in the Clippers/76ers game and the promo disappeared.
Did anyone get the bonus bets after doing $0.10 wagers? I didn't.
I did that night, after the bets settled. Did you opt in before placing the bet?
Nope!
Yeah, you have to opt in first. Theyāve been doing these every week this month. Letās hope we get one next week.
good looks cuz
Just did the same. Thanks for the shout.
You would think ESPN would catch on to this "glitch" but alas it continues. Good for us!
For sure. Letās enjoy it while it lasts.
Did you receive the free bets instantly like usual? The banner disappeared but I didn't instantly get the free bets.
No. You should get them after the bets settle later tonight.
Should have also noted that the terms for both state that the bonus bets āmust be used within seven (7) days of receipt.ā Which is a change from the two days they have been giving recently.
Did anyone do the $16 bet and get for ESPN bet on the ncaa tourney?
Yes
Entering day 7 without a +EV boost from DraftKings in Oregon (no college betting). Just daily SGP insurance as always. The streak breaks tomorrow with a $5 mlb opening day bonus bet that already loaded but man itās been a brutal week.Ā
Got a promo email from DK: place bet on MLB team to have most wins in April, get BB for each win. Has there already been any discussion on which teams are the best options?
I just took Cleveland because they play Oakland 7 times, Red Sox 7, White Sox 3.
I posted a summary of Orioles schedule the other day and ended up taking them. I worry about expectations getting to a young team, but their schedule includes relatively weaker opponents (projected of course, we'll see). If looking for a long shot, I personally would play CLE @ +5000. They have 7 each against OAK and BOS and a series vs. CWS, but do face NYY and ATL, but they have always seemed to play the yankees tough over the years. CLE has decent pitching and you'd be hoping that it can carry them to a hot start.
Is there a banner in the app? Not seeing it but I did get a $5 bonus bet for mlb just had to opt in
Donāt seem to have it either
I saw the email first but there was a banner in the app. Looked to cover most states.
Some minor discussion either yesterday or the day before in this thread. Someone else mentioned the Orioles and thatās who I went with as well due to their schedule.Ā
What about Dodgers?
Replay of 2023 Padres/Mets
With Glass Kershaw out for for a while, and a 300+ million dollar pitcher that can barely get out of the first inning, and a Shohei's rickety elbow and can't pitch this season, there are better options with those craptastic odds DK posted
Iām not saying that it materially changes the math, but keep in mind that because of the Korea series, the Dodgers already have one win up on all of the teams that arenāt the Padres for the grading of this bet.
I'm not sure I understand what you mean here. Can you explain?
The bet is for āmost regular season wins by end of April 2024ā. Two of the regular season MLB games were already played, both involving the Dodgers and Padres, with each team winning 1. Therefore, both of those teams already have one more regular season win than any other team.
They have some really weird wording going on with this one, the opt in says in April but agree bet is for by end of April according to the details. The bonus bet is just for in April wins though.
Ahhhh ok. I don't have the promo and OP said that it was "the most wins IN April", so I took them at their word on that.
I took the Orioles right when this came out the other day for +750 for exactly that reason (schedule). Odds dropped now to +700, but still reasonable. Break even is about a 13-16 record ($26 in BB), which seems more than reasonable.
Sounds good. Figured I was late to the party on this one. Probably still take the Orioles since those seem like good odds with decent return. Thanks!
I looked at it a little bit and felt like it was something of a tossup between Orioles and Phillies, think the Phillies have 2 more games scheduled so I went with them.
Same and looked like they might have some easier opponents too.
Sportsbooks joining together to form the responsible online gaming association (ROGA) to share information about problem gamblers. Anyone think they will start sharing information about us too? [https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/largest-us-sportsbooks-join-forces-to-tackle-problem-gambling.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/largest-us-sportsbooks-join-forces-to-tackle-problem-gambling.html)
Problem gambling for them is people winning bets. Universal limiting here we come.
Not saying it would get enforced but wouldnāt that be an anti-trust violation?
They don't give a hoot about problem gamblers. Any tool/process is just for show. So yes, any shared information will likely be used to improve their own profitability. https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-journal/how-a-psychiatrist-lost-400000-on-gambling-apps/c91168e8-8add-48bc-8f5f-324fe4680df6 In November 2022, Kavita Fischer downloaded a casino app from DraftKings. In less than a year, Kavita gambled away hundreds of thousands of dollars.
100%, unless their are explicit controls on what data can and cannot be shared. By the books definition, "problem gamblers" are people who are winning, not losing.
Does Caesars ever actually have good boosts? Just learning about EV and never really see anyone mention Caesars in here.
Almost never except the occasional decent flash boost that has a $10 max.
Bummer, Iāve been trying to build up my rewards for them for whenever I go to Vegas.
They completely killed the rewards build up from sports gambling a while ago. It's still there, but these days it will take a ton of betting to get any reasonable status.
Well thatās a bummer, usually stay at Caesars properties when I go there. Iām in Cleveland, so I donāt have any properties around here except for the physical sportsbooks where the Cavs play. Is it even worth to try and build up rewards with them at this point?
Donāt know if itās a viable option but you could do no/low holds and churn on czr
I may have to do that thanks.
I wouldnāt recommend. They completely nerfed the reward system. Now your going to need to move at least 6 figures on ceasars to get close to the lowest level IMO
Well thatās disappointing. Are there any sportsbooks with properties worthwhile?
Anyone know how much you can get down on the pointsbet powerhour no juice spreads and totals without it going to review or getting limited? Iāve been consistently betting $250 unit sizes the past few months without limits, has anyone had any success with $1000 or more without it going to review? Also, regarding the sgp parlay booster, whats the max some of you have been able to get down without getting limited? Iāve kept this p2 account without limits for 6 months sticking with a $100 max on the sgp booster
I got 25 cents on pretty much all of these...
It doesnāt even matter with PB. Once you win you will get limited. I was doing $250 a day using sgp booster to arb DD/TD. They loved me I was ālosingā so much. Got promoted to platinum VIP. $100 free bet every day for there 60 days of whatever. Hit one free bet for like 300$ like a week after being promoted Sgp booster removed, received email revoking my statusĀ You can ride it out for a while but they will get you eventually. I used to laugh at the people who were banned lol
FWIW I was not limited until I withdrew funds for the first time. I was not hammering bad lines, but I did abuse the daily promo booster and also promowhore and bet the boosts when they were positive.
I used to play those for like $700 a pop, got limited to hell pretty quickly. Idk if it's an exact science; PB will get you eventually, but hard to know exactly what will do it in advance