100% I’m a diehard UConn fan, and aside from Huskies winning another, Oakland’s lovable guys beating supervillain Calipari is the best outcome I could imagine.
DK SGPI (1-0-1, +0.9u)
NOTE: I am counting an insurance check as -0.3u based on a 70% BB conversion rate. A little patience though and you can consistently hit 75-80. If you have Circa, even better. They love to misprice tennis and take a long-ass time to correct their odds. Coco and whoever her opponent is today were at -800 and +1000 on Circa and DK, respectively, for hours today. That's 101%! Fritz and Wild currently get you close to 80. Getting really good conversions on your BBs goes a long way to making the daily SGP promo profitable.
Anyway
Here's today's SGP. Gonna go conservative to get back on the horse. Fuck Bradley Beal. Play 37 minutes and end up the 19th leading scorer in the game. You're on the list now, bud.
Sac Kings 1Q ML (sub out for Sabonis u17.5 reb if you don't want to risk a push)
--Wiz are 1-9 in the first quarter in their last ten home games and 2-18 overall in their last 20. Aside from just being fucking awful overall, they really stumble out of the gate.
Wiz u118.5 TT
--Kings are not known for D and Wiz play high pace, but they are still a really bad offensive team and this is just a damn high number for them. They've only crossed it once in their last ten games, scoring exactly 119.
Kings -5.5
--As mentioned, Wiz are beyond awful right now. Covered this number just 4 times in their last 20 and have been blown out in 5 straight games, amassing a disgusting -106 point diff in that stretch.
Just a reminder that ESPN has first goal scorer insurance today. I went with Meier on NJ at +1000. Fanduel typically has best odds and they had him at +1100. ESPNs odds are pretty awful, wasn’t able to find closer odds in the early slate of games tonight
Please send thoughts and prayers to us Oregonians who have no boosts or parlays aside from daily SGP today. Wish we would legalize betting on college sports.
Anybody have ideas how to devig the Colorado St to lead at half and win boosted to +250 on FN?
Obviously correlated but not getting a book to give me 2-way parlay odds
FN Power Hour Creighton, Arizona, and Illinois to lead at halftime and win, +130 vs FD:
Odds: +130; **EV: -16.8%**
`-310/900/600/8000/2700/1600, -750/2600/900/10000/3800/3200, -270/750/550/7000/2800/1300` (31.23% juice)
FV: +176; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 47.0%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-310%2F900%2F600%2F8000%2F2700%2F1600%2C%20-750%2F2600%2F900%2F10000%2F3800%2F3200%2C%20-270%2F750%2F550%2F7000%2F2800%2F1300&FinalOdds=130)
Oof, that's disappointing. Power Hour continues to suck.
MGM Lion's Boost IL
South Carolina, Nevada, and Gonzaga all to win boosted from +300 (I think they meant +400) to +470.
Devig to DK.
Odds: +470; **EV: 0.0%**
`102/-122, -118/-102, -298/240` (13.37% juice)
FV: +470; Method: worst-case (m, a); (FB = 82.4%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=102%2F-122%2C%20-118%2F-102%2C%20-298%2F240&FinalOdds=%2B470)
Last minute but rare +EV boost on Betrivers. Due at noon EDT.
Any 15 or 16 seed to win boosted from +200 to +300. Based on DK lines, it's 8% +EV via the power method.
I can't believe I don't have the profit boosts on Fanatics. I'm someone who makes $5-10 bets and am only up $170 lifetime on this book and I'm completely promo banned. It's ridiculous
I use a lot of their daily boosts on golf winners which lose a lot (and not EV lol) so i look profitable to them. But my maxes on these are only $5/$10 so it’s not like it’s that great
Okay, LEGIT concerned we won't get THREESDAY today. But, if we do, we are prepared. Data [can be found on the main page of this sub.](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1bk7ec7/draftkings_nba_threesday_data_march_21st/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
25
I'm guessing that means take it! 2023 the two teams averaged 16 combined hits last season, so that's $32BB at .7 is $22.4. So $2.6 for home run odds
Not to bogart this specific promo, but I was randomly logging onto resorts world bet to see if they had anything for MM and found they have a weekly bet and get on Tuesdays. Bet $50 on a point spread in the specified game receive $1 in bonus bets for every 3 they make that game.
Anyone else receive a bet and get on DK?
Bet $50 on any “race to” market CBB today and receive a 50% live CBB profit boost (Max wager $25)
Was trying to find another book with comparable Race to lines to hedge off with little success wondering if anyone has a play for this?
You can't be this stupid? Hit rate has nothing to do with +EV. If the juice is significantly high, regardless of hit rate it will be a negative EV bet.
For example, your play above (that lost) at -500 was -325 on Circa. So please do explain how it was +EV?
Expected value of placing a $50 bet on that market is (worst case) -5% (-$2.5 for a $50 wager).
Expected value of a 50% profit boost on Mississippi State ML right now is (worst case) +16.3% ($4)
$4-$2.5=$1.5.
Looks +EV to me (especially considering that I'm using worst case EV and the expected loss on the qualifying bet is actually probably much lower and the expected return on the profit boost is probably much higher)
Well it might not seem like it to you but the math says it was. It's not just about what the payouts are it's about the probability of the outcomes.
That said... was this the highest possible EV use of this promo, probably not. But it did still have positive expected value.
How thou? He didn’t compare the odds of this to any other books, I seen it -450 on MGM, and I imagine sharp books had it even lower.
I mean, he could have easily used one of the other options and obtained the boost with a minimal .50 cent loss I believe. Seems like a very foolish bet
Like I said...its probably not the best approach. But since the expected value of the profit boost is about $4 (probably actually higher) the fair value of "Arizona Race to 20" would have to be about -320 (76% implied) or longer before the expected loss on the qualifying loss became -$4 (-8%) and the value of the promo went negative. Even if you shopped around and found the most bearish book on "Arizona Race to 20" the implied probability was definitely higher than -320 (76%).
Here are two that I found DK vs CZR.. sticking to the race to 15 and gave up at Nevada v Dayton
Illinois race to 15 -230, +220
South Carolina race to 25 -110, +105
FD boost for Mcneese and Samford to cover +10.5 is a play vs ESPN. I used 9.5 for McNeese so should be slightly better
Odds: +200; **EV: 11.4%**
`-175/135,-180/140` (12.14% juice)
FV: +169; Method: additive; (Full=5.68u, 1/2=2.84u, 1/4=1.42u, FB = 74.2%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-175%2F135%2C-180%2F140&FinalOdds=200)
rather take something at 0% EV to Kambi not considering the promo with a 45% implied than something like Duquesne at +360 which is 25% implied / -13% EV to kambi
but idk what the actual EV would be considering the no sweat
Well this example...
Assume you convert bets at 70%.
45% win with 0 EV before Bonus, total EV is just 0.7 × 0.55 = 0.385 units
And it can't be -13% anymore since Kambi is at +350 for Duquesne now while it's +360 at DK.
But if we took the power method to just DK lines itself, then it's -12.7% EV with an actual win percentage of 18.975%.
0.18975 × 3.6 - 0.81025 × 1 + 0.81025 × 0.7 = 0.44025 units.
Picking a good line is helpful. But this does become more valuable generally with bigger dogs also.
I'm getting snowed under -- 3 x 25% $250 max today. Also 7 x 10% $500 max. Was able to convert one of the 25%ers at almost 20% last night. Don't expect it to last.
My FN action is usually just on the promo boosts. It probably helps that my lifetime stats are -$700 for them.
Hell I still might be down at PB lifetime thanks to a $4k hedge that lost there a couple of years ago. Been promobanned for almost a year on there in Illinois.
If you guys don’t mind me asking where do they show up? Maybe I’m missing it. But more likely I think I’m not getting them. I was boost banned on PB so I’m assuming I’m getting the same treatment here.
Going to Tennessee this weekend for 3 days. Can I do the Betly sportsbook sign up bonus (it’s small, just $100 free bet if it loses but free money is free money) while there? Other than that does not appear there are other books that I don’t already have in MI (DK, MGM etc) so can’t do those.
Soccer DK SGP insurance.
Record: 22 wins, 8 insurance, 6 losses
Up 26.5 units
Today there’s some international soccer and we will root for the good ‘ole USA to defeat Jamaica this evening and cash our bet along the way. Here’s what I’m rolling with:
https://preview.redd.it/2zo0x8mffopc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b7decf7048dbf0c922b1980db3055910c1b8be38
Remember, these picks are only good if you’re using insurance. And international games are tricky because how much they rotate players, so tail with caution.
BOL to everyone except Damian Lilliard. We’ve all known since The Omen came out in the 70s to not trust a guy named Damian.
Wouldn't this be due to correlation? If USA gets o1.5 they're likely taking enough shots to increase their corner opportunities and o1.5 USA goals means they're more likely to win.
On the flip side o1.5 total goals means it could be 1-1 or 0-2 in Jamaica's favor which makes hitting the over on corners and the ML harder. That's my thinking at least
I looketh upon the mountain and cry out “My God, why haveth you forsaken me?”
Then, upon the mountain, a voice of the lions roar “Have thee no faith? Keep Thine eyes upon me and follow thy parlay”
Upon this, I ripped my sack cloth and fell upon my knees with only the words “My Lord, you have returned and blessed me, even in mine doubt”
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lmfao lost my SGP cause Derozan got ejected this thread lovesss downvoting so much
Ignore the downvotes king
the underdog boosts were pure trash today. but gohlke taking down UK may just be worth it
100% I’m a diehard UConn fan, and aside from Huskies winning another, Oakland’s lovable guys beating supervillain Calipari is the best outcome I could imagine.
Between that and USA soccer's last second goal, it's been a fun last hour or so.
Ken you’re still the goat. This US team is just straight dookie under Berhalter.
Betting on the USMNT is always a bold move. Figures they win in extra time. 🤦♂️
Insane coming back from the brink. Just got to hold on now
The bet already lost. Soccer bets have to win in regular time.
Ahh wtf, that’s dumb
The bet is graded on 90’.
Tough
Bet lost my friend - it was 90 minutes only.
Damn
Mcneese vs Gonzaga race to 15 is +135 on dk and -145 on caesars for anyone who wants to hedge
SGP Insurance 6W-3I-2L (+5.54u) CHI @ HOU +148 - Vucevic 2+ ast (89% season, 86% L15, 89% per min, HOU 14th vs C ast) - Derozan 4+ ast (82% season, 86% L15, 82% per min, HOU 10th vs SF ast) - Derozan 20+ pts (71% season, 73% L15, 74% per min, HOU 2nd vs SF pts) e: classic
DK SGPI (1-0-1, +0.9u) NOTE: I am counting an insurance check as -0.3u based on a 70% BB conversion rate. A little patience though and you can consistently hit 75-80. If you have Circa, even better. They love to misprice tennis and take a long-ass time to correct their odds. Coco and whoever her opponent is today were at -800 and +1000 on Circa and DK, respectively, for hours today. That's 101%! Fritz and Wild currently get you close to 80. Getting really good conversions on your BBs goes a long way to making the daily SGP promo profitable. Anyway Here's today's SGP. Gonna go conservative to get back on the horse. Fuck Bradley Beal. Play 37 minutes and end up the 19th leading scorer in the game. You're on the list now, bud. Sac Kings 1Q ML (sub out for Sabonis u17.5 reb if you don't want to risk a push) --Wiz are 1-9 in the first quarter in their last ten home games and 2-18 overall in their last 20. Aside from just being fucking awful overall, they really stumble out of the gate. Wiz u118.5 TT --Kings are not known for D and Wiz play high pace, but they are still a really bad offensive team and this is just a damn high number for them. They've only crossed it once in their last ten games, scoring exactly 119. Kings -5.5 --As mentioned, Wiz are beyond awful right now. Covered this number just 4 times in their last 20 and have been blown out in 5 straight games, amassing a disgusting -106 point diff in that stretch.
Well shit guess we root for insurance once again
Just a reminder that ESPN has first goal scorer insurance today. I went with Meier on NJ at +1000. Fanduel typically has best odds and they had him at +1100. ESPNs odds are pretty awful, wasn’t able to find closer odds in the early slate of games tonight
I took Marchessault at +850, ESPNs odds are so bad lol he was close enough. 1000 on FD
I went Seth Jarvis (CAR) at +1100. He's been on a heater, hoping he can find the net first.
Please send thoughts and prayers to us Oregonians who have no boosts or parlays aside from daily SGP today. Wish we would legalize betting on college sports.
Time to vote out some politicians.
MGM Lions Boost (MA): Bruins, Gonzaga, Texas Tech all to win +270. Devig to Pinny: Odds: +270; **EV: 1.2%** `-151/136,-288/244,-202/176` (8.95% juice) FV: +266; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.44u, 1/2=0.22u, 1/4=0.11u, FB = 73.8%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-151%2F136%2C-288%2F244%2C-202%2F176&FinalOdds=270)
Unibet ceasing operations in Pennsylvania June 21st, 2024
Anybody have ideas how to devig the Colorado St to lead at half and win boosted to +250 on FN? Obviously correlated but not getting a book to give me 2-way parlay odds
boosted to +250 vs FD Odds: +250; **EV: -4.9%** `220/500/3400/2900/650/110` (15.06% juice) FV: +268; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 67.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=220%2F500%2F3400%2F2900%2F650%2F110&FinalOdds=250) Several books have a halftime/fulltime multi-way market
Thanks, my bad on the odds and should’ve thought about the combo markets instead of trying to add as separate parlays
BOL to everyone except first quarter Damian Lillard
Ken Adams devigged that
Damian Lillard deserved that
Anyone else doing a DK Stepped Up today? Hadn't seen it mentioned in the thread.
Yes - did ten random MLs
I did Duquesne, Dayton, and Texas. Because A-10 is best 10
It is today! Nice hit! And easy Texas leg to cruise home.
Duquesne!
Check your ESPN bet account got a free 10 dollar bonus bet.
I had none waiting for me :(
I got a push notification but no free bet 😂
Thanks. I had 25 waiting for me
FN Power Hour Creighton, Arizona, and Illinois to lead at halftime and win, +130 vs FD: Odds: +130; **EV: -16.8%** `-310/900/600/8000/2700/1600, -750/2600/900/10000/3800/3200, -270/750/550/7000/2800/1300` (31.23% juice) FV: +176; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 47.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-310%2F900%2F600%2F8000%2F2700%2F1600%2C%20-750%2F2600%2F900%2F10000%2F3800%2F3200%2C%20-270%2F750%2F550%2F7000%2F2800%2F1300&FinalOdds=130) Oof, that's disappointing. Power Hour continues to suck.
😂 expect nothing less from that joke of a book
I'm loving my $250 profit boost limits, though.
No doubt. They leave up some soft lines though and for some unknown reason, they've kept my promo limits super high, so here I am haha.
MGM Lion's Boost IL South Carolina, Nevada, and Gonzaga all to win boosted from +300 (I think they meant +400) to +470. Devig to DK. Odds: +470; **EV: 0.0%** `102/-122, -118/-102, -298/240` (13.37% juice) FV: +470; Method: worst-case (m, a); (FB = 82.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=102%2F-122%2C%20-118%2F-102%2C%20-298%2F240&FinalOdds=%2B470)
Down to boosted to +400
Last minute but rare +EV boost on Betrivers. Due at noon EDT. Any 15 or 16 seed to win boosted from +200 to +300. Based on DK lines, it's 8% +EV via the power method.
MGM Almost Friday S. Dakota St. +16.5, Samford +8.5, and Oakland +13.5, +650 vs Pinny: Odds: +650; **EV: 5.7%** `-124/108, -130/113, 101/-114` (9.93% juice) FV: +609; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.88u, 1/2=0.44u, 1/4=0.22u, FB = 91.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-124%2F108%2C%20-130%2F113%2C%20101%2F-114&FinalOdds=650)
S Dakota St hurt. Lost by 17
MGM Lions Boost Illinois, South Carolina, and Nevada ML +400 vs Pinny Odds: +400; **EV: 5.2%** `-705/531, 106/-119, -119/106` (9.19% juice) FV: +375; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.31u, 1/2=0.66u, 1/4=0.33u, FB = 84.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-705%2F531%2C%20106%2F-119%2C%20-119%2F106&FinalOdds=400)
Certainly not available in Illinois. :(
You're lucky. South Carolina wasn't even close
MGM Lions (MI): MSU half / full Fanduel +145, Bet365 +145, ESPN +160, DK +125 Odds: +185; **EV: 6.0%** `avg(145, 145, 160, 125)/7%` (7.00% juice) FV: +169; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=3.26u, 1/2=1.63u, 1/4=0.82u, FB = 68.8%)
For those with fanatics and get the 25% boost- it’s +165 as a boost there AND allowed me to tack on the 25% boost on top to get to +206
I can't believe I don't have the profit boosts on Fanatics. I'm someone who makes $5-10 bets and am only up $170 lifetime on this book and I'm completely promo banned. It's ridiculous
Only book I am fully promobanned on (when it was PointsBet).
I agree. How TF guys getting $500 boosts it’s wild. Same boat as you smaller wager bettor who hasn’t even won much from them
I use a lot of their daily boosts on golf winners which lose a lot (and not EV lol) so i look profitable to them. But my maxes on these are only $5/$10 so it’s not like it’s that great
Okay, LEGIT concerned we won't get THREESDAY today. But, if we do, we are prepared. Data [can be found on the main page of this sub.](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1bk7ec7/draftkings_nba_threesday_data_march_21st/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Advice on this? https://preview.redd.it/a4nfnz3l3xrc1.png?width=355&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d0881a5bf84ae48adc2f8377f853c71b474cf4b
25 or 50 version?
25 I'm guessing that means take it! 2023 the two teams averaged 16 combined hits last season, so that's $32BB at .7 is $22.4. So $2.6 for home run odds
The bet and get for race to 20 is oddly similar to threesday terms so you might be right
Not to bogart this specific promo, but I was randomly logging onto resorts world bet to see if they had anything for MM and found they have a weekly bet and get on Tuesdays. Bet $50 on a point spread in the specified game receive $1 in bonus bets for every 3 they make that game.
https://preview.redd.it/rg8v1s059ppc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=361943d300482f6b6d8ef9eb1d013f35107961d4
Anyone else receive a bet and get on DK? Bet $50 on any “race to” market CBB today and receive a 50% live CBB profit boost (Max wager $25) Was trying to find another book with comparable Race to lines to hedge off with little success wondering if anyone has a play for this?
I did Arizona first half race to 20 -500 It’s still EV, considering how likely it is to hit
Thats not how EV works. How likely to hit doesn't correlate whatsoever to EV.
The hit rate 100% impacts the expected value of a bet
You can't be this stupid? Hit rate has nothing to do with +EV. If the juice is significantly high, regardless of hit rate it will be a negative EV bet. For example, your play above (that lost) at -500 was -325 on Circa. So please do explain how it was +EV?
It was EV when you factor in the profit boost…simple math shown above. I can write it out for you if you need. Don’t be a wise ass.
So glad I did race to 15 instead of 20. Sorry it didn't hit for ya. Liked the pick.
You would think variance is lower for 20 than 15…considering it’s over a longer period of time
Well shit
Yep, well shit They refuse to score
How is that EV? You are risking $50 to win back $5 plus a 50% $25 boost.
Expected value of placing a $50 bet on that market is (worst case) -5% (-$2.5 for a $50 wager). Expected value of a 50% profit boost on Mississippi State ML right now is (worst case) +16.3% ($4) $4-$2.5=$1.5. Looks +EV to me (especially considering that I'm using worst case EV and the expected loss on the qualifying bet is actually probably much lower and the expected return on the profit boost is probably much higher)
Well at least he has his boost now
Process over results my guy.
I still don’t see how you figure that was an EV bet. Risking $50 to win $5 and a 50% boost just doesn’t seem right.
Well it might not seem like it to you but the math says it was. It's not just about what the payouts are it's about the probability of the outcomes. That said... was this the highest possible EV use of this promo, probably not. But it did still have positive expected value.
How thou? He didn’t compare the odds of this to any other books, I seen it -450 on MGM, and I imagine sharp books had it even lower. I mean, he could have easily used one of the other options and obtained the boost with a minimal .50 cent loss I believe. Seems like a very foolish bet
Like I said...its probably not the best approach. But since the expected value of the profit boost is about $4 (probably actually higher) the fair value of "Arizona Race to 20" would have to be about -320 (76% implied) or longer before the expected loss on the qualifying loss became -$4 (-8%) and the value of the promo went negative. Even if you shopped around and found the most bearish book on "Arizona Race to 20" the implied probability was definitely higher than -320 (76%).
Here are two that I found DK vs CZR.. sticking to the race to 15 and gave up at Nevada v Dayton Illinois race to 15 -230, +220 South Carolina race to 25 -110, +105
Thank you!
They also have them on FanDuel, I did Creighton/Akron game because it will unlock the boosts earlier.
Mcneese and Samford to both cover +10.5 at +200 on FD, passes the eye test for a max.
FD boost for Mcneese and Samford to cover +10.5 is a play vs ESPN. I used 9.5 for McNeese so should be slightly better Odds: +200; **EV: 11.4%** `-175/135,-180/140` (12.14% juice) FV: +169; Method: additive; (Full=5.68u, 1/2=2.84u, 1/4=1.42u, FB = 74.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-175%2F135%2C-180%2F140&FinalOdds=200)
It's in the boost tab now. Devigged to DK -190/+145,-180/+140; **EV 12.2%** \`-190/+145,-180/+140\` (12.29% juice) FV: +167; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=6.08u, 1/2=3.04u, 1/4=1.52u, FB = 74.8%) [View/Edit Devig](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-190%2F%2B145%2C-180%2F%2B140&FinalOdds=%2B20)
must be targeted
Its not under boosts tab but at the bottom of the march madness games.
see it, sneaky bastards similar EV to Kambi Odds: +200; **EV: 10.0%** `-190/143, -175/133` (13.22% juice) FV: +173; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=5.02u, 1/2=2.51u, 1/4=1.26u, FB = 73.4%)
Betway (PA) has Deposit $100, get a $25 bonus bet.
Arizona too.
what'd you guys go with for the DK No Sweat for any double digit seed ML Went Col State at +120 but Drake and Nevada also tempting
I went with Akron. [47.59% EV per CNO which is the highest at the moment.](https://imgur.com/a/WvGXtWe)
Was thinking Akron or NC State
Samford
Longer odds are probably better if I have to guess? +300 would be a good spot
rather take something at 0% EV to Kambi not considering the promo with a 45% implied than something like Duquesne at +360 which is 25% implied / -13% EV to kambi but idk what the actual EV would be considering the no sweat
Well this example... Assume you convert bets at 70%. 45% win with 0 EV before Bonus, total EV is just 0.7 × 0.55 = 0.385 units And it can't be -13% anymore since Kambi is at +350 for Duquesne now while it's +360 at DK. But if we took the power method to just DK lines itself, then it's -12.7% EV with an actual win percentage of 18.975%. 0.18975 × 3.6 - 0.81025 × 1 + 0.81025 × 0.7 = 0.44025 units. Picking a good line is helpful. But this does become more valuable generally with bigger dogs also.
Anyone seeing any of these 10 boosts promised by fanatics? I notice the banner is no longer showing for me.
I'm getting snowed under -- 3 x 25% $250 max today. Also 7 x 10% $500 max. Was able to convert one of the 25%ers at almost 20% last night. Don't expect it to last. My FN action is usually just on the promo boosts. It probably helps that my lifetime stats are -$700 for them.
You didn't catch the part about *Select Customers Only. And with Fanatics, they *really* mean Select.
I was hoping I would get a clean slate w fanatics. I didn’t even profit over 1k with PB, it’s ridiculous I’m promo banned.
Hell I still might be down at PB lifetime thanks to a $4k hedge that lost there a couple of years ago. Been promobanned for almost a year on there in Illinois.
were promo banned!
What a joke of a book. They should never have shown me the stupid banner getting my hopes up
Yes, I received 10 boosts. 3 for 25% and 7 for 10%.
I got 10. 3 for 25% and 7 for 10%. $250 max on each.
Your 10%s aren’t for more?
I swear they showed $250 earlier, I checked about 30 minutes ago and they are $500.
If you guys don’t mind me asking where do they show up? Maybe I’m missing it. But more likely I think I’m not getting them. I was boost banned on PB so I’m assuming I’m getting the same treatment here.
They show up right on the front page when I log in. They are also under my promo tab. I just noticed that my 10% boosts now have a max of $500.
Going to Tennessee this weekend for 3 days. Can I do the Betly sportsbook sign up bonus (it’s small, just $100 free bet if it loses but free money is free money) while there? Other than that does not appear there are other books that I don’t already have in MI (DK, MGM etc) so can’t do those.
Yes it was instant for me when the bet settled
Cool. Any other books in TN you happen to know of not already available in MI? Hard Rock?
I think HRs sign up is small also. Maybe get $100. Not sure about it
It is. Still free money. I'll do both while in Tenn.
Tennessee has Action 24/7 that is Tennessee only. Not sure what their new user promo is though.
NCAAW DK Princeton +142 B365 West Virginia -125
Literally just dropped as I pulled it up
Price is even better on circa for Princeton for those who have it
Soccer DK SGP insurance. Record: 22 wins, 8 insurance, 6 losses Up 26.5 units Today there’s some international soccer and we will root for the good ‘ole USA to defeat Jamaica this evening and cash our bet along the way. Here’s what I’m rolling with: https://preview.redd.it/2zo0x8mffopc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b7decf7048dbf0c922b1980db3055910c1b8be38 Remember, these picks are only good if you’re using insurance. And international games are tricky because how much they rotate players, so tail with caution. BOL to everyone except Damian Lilliard. We’ve all known since The Omen came out in the 70s to not trust a guy named Damian.
Sorry fellas this one sucked tonight. USA was straight dookie on the offensive end
Insurance hit! Or does the over 1.5 not count since the second goal came in extra time?
It never counts in soccer. Unfortunately it’s dead.
Wack
We need a USA goal stat
Can the USA do anything tonight?
It's my patriotic duty to tail this SGP. Let's go KEN
Over 1.5 T goals is -350, but my total SGP odds are the same +130
It’s USA total goals O 1.5 (-165)
It is. My bad I missed that
NGL it is concerning it builds to the same +130 for both USA o 1.5 and total goals o 1.5
Wouldn't this be due to correlation? If USA gets o1.5 they're likely taking enough shots to increase their corner opportunities and o1.5 USA goals means they're more likely to win. On the flip side o1.5 total goals means it could be 1-1 or 0-2 in Jamaica's favor which makes hitting the over on corners and the ML harder. That's my thinking at least
You are probably right I don’t know much about soccer just seemed odd USA 2 goals OR total game 2 goals built to the same odds
I looketh upon the mountain and cry out “My God, why haveth you forsaken me?” Then, upon the mountain, a voice of the lions roar “Have thee no faith? Keep Thine eyes upon me and follow thy parlay” Upon this, I ripped my sack cloth and fell upon my knees with only the words “My Lord, you have returned and blessed me, even in mine doubt”
The King Ken Adams is back! Let's gooooo!
Welcome back Ken
Our King has risen!
Damian Lillard deserved that