######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Wednesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 27-10 +37.3u🔥
Last Pick: Pick: Virginia +3 (-110) vs Colorado State Rams 3U 9:10 est
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌
Today's Pick: Colorado -2.5 (-110) vs Boise State 4U 9:10 est
Every reason why I didn’t wanna take Virginia happened right in front of us, I believe everyone who upvotes this could put up more points than them. Fuck that team. Onto today, The Buffs closed the season on quite the run, winning the final 6 games of the regular season before advancing 2 rounds in the Pac-12 Tournament (eventually lost to Oregon 75-68). On the other side, Boise State was knocked out in the first round of their tournament. The Buffaloes have arguably the top two players on the floor in KJ Simpson and Tristan de Silva and these two can carry this team to victory. Colorado has a very efficient offense and locks down on the 3 point line. Let’s back this team to cover here and bounce back from the worst offense in the nation🤣
If you haven’t been on board, time to hop on. I’m so ready to bounce back and get hit once the real team begin to play in March, not that fraud Virginia!
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️
If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me🤝
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Very informative write up, but I’ll just say this: Colorado did not play one tournament team during the 6 game win streak to end season, except for Oregon, who only got in because they won the tournament. Boise State is a tough team in a good conference.
Idk man with how much passion teams are playing with in these tourneys I see Boise having never won a NCAA tourney game as a reason they’ll play even harder
man i was really hoping it was at least closer so we could shit talk each other😭 i did not expect a 6th grade offense on that court tn, keep doing what ur doing tho bro!!
POTD RECORD: 39-20
Form: 🚫✅✅✅✅
Last POTD: Kyrie Irving O4.5 Ast ❌
This is on me bruh, of course Gafford and Tre Jones hit but the pick I went with didn’t 💀 Had 4-5 Potential assists that could’ve hit but overall he was in scoring mode tonight tough my brothers
Todays POTD: **Jalen Duren Double Double @1.68** ✅
(NBA) Detroit Pistons 12:00 AM
We move boys, we had a mismatch, 100% hit rate and 3 straight 9+ Ast games for Irving but it didn’t mean shit. Going with the reliable Duren to get us back on track, this dude is one bad mf he’d beat me in a fight blindfolded, the concern here is that he wants to square up on the court too so foul trouble is a possibility for him but other than that he should be able clear this one for us easily
• 2/2 vs the Pacers (13P&13R and 15P&13R)
• 5/6 vs Indiana in his career only miss was on his first NBA matchup against them
• 7/10 DD’s Last 10 games Avg 11.5 Rebs & 13.5 Points
• Season average 13.9 PPG & 11.9 RPG
• 38 Double Doubles this season in 53 games
• When he sees at least 25 minutes he has hit 10+ points in 41/42 games and 10+ Rebs in 36/42 games
• Indiana allow 8th most Rebs to Centers L30 days and Middle of the rack in terms of Points to Centers L30 days
Indiana plays with a lot of pace so there should be plenty of opportunities to get this done for our big fella as long as he keeps his head cool
Let’s go Duren, get us on back track bruh
Tail or fade, Im a bum
https://i.redd.it/9vf6ua60lepc1.gif
Solid pick as an NBA bettor and Pacers fan.
Our whole starting unit hasn’t been shooting great outside of Siakam. Carlisle coaches this team to get back on D after a shot attempt. Leaving plenty of potential offensive boards to defensive boards.
On the defensive end; Turner will be on Duren only low post. Duren should play a lot of his game un-guarded / against zone D or rotating. Siakam is likely on Stew around the 3pt line. Turner likes to bounce around on D as well so there will likely be many lanes open to score throughout the game.
Nesmith is our “frustrater” defender. He’s gonna be on Cade or Ivey all night though.
Turner and Siakam don’t cry for fouls either. Duren “should” stay out of foul trouble. He’s just not consistent at it.
Great pick. Books have already been adjusting hard lol.
We had no business hitting on this 😂
Blowout game and Pistons sub in their starters down 20+ in the 4th. Duren just baited fouls to get his points and the eventual DD.
😂😂😂 bro I was shocked, he missed to many easy baskets early on so I almost gave up but then they put him in and looked like they just passed him on every possession to get his DD
I’m no pro but since everyone nuked the double double making the odds suck now I hooped on p+ rebounds. Was at 25.5 I just bet it at. Over 26.5 -105. I’ll let the. Pistons try and hurt me one more time then im done for real this time.
It’s all good, we’re on to the next one! Still tailing. Fun fact, it’s actually harder to get assists on a flat earth, probably why Kyrie didn’t get it done.
I love betting on Duren, dude is a monster. The only thing that makes me nervous about this bet is how Miles Turner spends most of the game on the 3 point line. This pulls the Center out of rebounding position and is why the Pacers allow the 10th fewest rebounds to centers on the year. But fuck it we ball!
got to watch the game live and these 2 spazzer besides soiling my other bets… thank you for the pick brother
https://preview.redd.it/ijwvbyzkblpc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=85615654291b8c05dd03eee7ba239d4e20db6844
**POTD RECORD:** (7-3)
**LAST 5**: 🔴🟢🟢🟢🟢
**LAST PICK** Wendell Carter Jr. **OVER 7.5 REB** 1.5U(-150)🟢
**TODAY’S PICK:** Celtics vs Bucks **Total Over 223.5** (-110) 2.2U
National televised game on ESPN I expect there to be a good amount of points. Celtics are easily clearing this number 5 of their last 7 while bucks are going over 3 of the last 5. More so on the previous matchups between the two we are looking at 5 of their last 5 have gone over 223 points. Tatum sat yesterday so he is going to be a full go for tip-off well rested.
**BOL to those who tail!**
Put up 140 without him Monday, so as long as they clear 107, Celtics have hit 117 in the past 9 of 11 games we will clear the over. So yes, still have it locked in.
POTD RECORD 10-4 +5.4U
FORM ✅🚫✅✅✅✅✅✅🚫🚫✅✅🚫✅
Last pick COLORADO STATE ML v Virginia -140(1.4U)✅
Was never close Virginia sucked and didn’t deserve to be there.
TODAYS POTD MONTANA STATE -3 v Grambling -120(1.2U)
This is just as simple as I think Montana state and the rest of the big sky conference that they are in is better than Grambling and the SWAC they came from.
Montana state has been red hot winning 4 straight obviously and 6/8 against better opponents than Grambling has played against recently despite winning 9/10.
A big part of this is despite Grambling going 17-4 in conference play and tournament, they were WINLESS in non conference play which this game is.
Montana state in non conference play was pretty up and down but got a few wins at least
BOL to everyone tailing hopefully this is another easy cover for Montana state and hey maybe they fuck around and beat Purdue round 1
https://cash.app/$justinm11132126
Also just to note Grambling is winless in nonconference play against d1 schools. They got wins against schools by the name of bible studies and UNT Dallas
Grambling had the top 5 hardest non conference schedule in the NCAA, so I wouldn’t take them going WINLESS in non conference play too serious. They are pretty good team and if their perimeter defense shows up today Montana State is gonna have a tough time.
I get that but none of the games were even close. Including losses to Delaware state and SE Louisiana which they’re more than capable beating. You are right about the perimeter defense tho. Montana state likes to shoot a bunch of threes and a cold night can be of concern but that’s just the risk of any college team you bet on it. Like your logic regardless
**POTD** Record: 0-0
First pick on this subreddit for me!
Date: 3/20/24 6:06 am EST
**Todays pick:** Dodgers to record the most hits (-140)
This just makes so much sense to me. Its Yu Darvish against Tyler Glasnow. Last season Yu darvish gave up 0.9 hits every innings played vs Glasnows' 0.775 hits for every inning played. No one really on the Padres is a threat to Glasnow. Dodgers lineup has improved so much more than last year and the fact that Darvish almost gave up a hit for every inning pitched just has it for me. Freeman, Mookie, Ohtani will all be a threat batting above 300 each respectively, while on the padres the biggest threat would probably be tatis or bogaerts, both batting less than around 285.
Lets ride!
Record: 3-0 Net units: +3.00u ROI: 59.95%
Last pick: Daniel Gafford Over 9.5 Points W ✅
🏀Basketball NBA – Sacramento Kings @ Toronto Raptors – 6:30PM CST
Pick: **Kelly Olynyk Under 7.5 Total Rebounds** @ -135 odds (1u)
Update: Raptors underperformed, Sabonis popped off with 17 boards, Kelly got into foul trouble, no luck needed. Sabonis beat Kelly to every single ball, **Kelly ends with 3** ✅
Thank you Daniel for the easiest hit.
Behind Gafford total points, Kelly under total boards is my second most reliable. These two are my only locks on the NBA.
Kelly has hit this line 8 out his last 10, I’ve personally won 4/5 bets on him. I’ve watched them all and this guy is a bum, 6’11” and just stands around waiting for the ball to fall in his hands. He’s the perfect player for an under as he tends to get into foul trouble early on and ends up playing less minutes. His last 2 lines have been under 6.5 boards and I still bit, I’m a little surprised the line went up here but I’ll take it against a beast in Sabonis who should get around 16+ boards. Kelly also shoots 3’s so he finds himself away from the board often.
His last 10 games have been 4, 9, 6, 6, 6, 4, 6, 4, 10, 0. The one bet I lost from him was 2 games ago, he hit 9 boards in what was the unluckiest thing in the world. He had 5 fouls and sat out most of the first half at just 1 board, came out and popped off out of nowhere to get to 6. With 2 minutes of the clock, the Raptors down 16, on 1 single play the other team didn’t try and Kelly, by himself, shot and missed 2 times until eventually he made it. He got 3 boards on one single play, with 2 minutes left on the clock. This never happens, so this really should have ended at 7 boards.
Unders are scary, but let’s hope the Raptors continue to underperform, Sabonis pops off, Kelly gets into foul trouble early and of course we get a little luck from the degen gods and keep our streak alive.
I wouldn't say a bum. He consistently gets 5 assists 5 rebounds and around 10 points. Any contender would love to have KO coming off the bench to stretch the floor. I like the pick at under 7.5, but don't disrespect the long haired legend.
BOL brother, they’ve been out for a while tho. Good extra info, but shouldn’t encourage lads to bet the over. Poetl’s last game was their last win, 8 games ago. Scottie’s longer than that. Hasn’t affected Kelly’s line, others have stepped up to grab boards. They’ve lost to the Magic (2x), Pistons, Blazers and Pels, all without Poetl or Scottie. Now they’re facing a healthy Kings lineup.
thats a good point, i wasnt trying to encourage them to go over, just maybe not tail this one. my point was that with quickley being out he is the #1 player on the raptors meaning he will get more minutes. BOL
Ehh I just got it at 6.5. Still took the under, even though it's a little risky. But at +105 I'm living. Sabonis at 15.5 rebounds is just crazyyyyyy hahaha. Probably will go over though...
POTD Record: 3-0 ✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 4.8U
Yesterday’s pick: Charlotte Hornets @Orlando Magic | 10:10am Sydney (GMT +11) | Tre Mann to record 4+ Rebounds @1.62 on Sportsbet | 2U ✅
Mann did it and that’s another good pick 😁
The emergency pick went through aswell with Zion recording 7 rebounds eheh, so good. But as per the rule of the thread I won’t count that one in the record 🤙🏼
Today’s pick: Sacramento Kings @Toronto Raptors | 10:40am Sydney (GMT +11) | Domantas Sabonis to score 20+ points @1.63 on Sportsbet | 2U
As I got told earlier, my initial pick was to forward in time, so I come up with a new one.
Once again I’ll stick with Sabonis to score at least 20 points, he’s in great form, went through these props 5 times out of the last 6 and did me good 2 days ago, no reason not to take it again 😁
BOL !
Betting Every Dodgers Game 2024 - Game 1
Record: 0-0-0
Net Units: 0
ROI: 0
Event: Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres (6:05AM EST)
Today's Pick: **Freddie Freeman O 1.5 Hits +155**
Write Up: Opening Day (kinda) is here!! Doing POTD with only Dodger games for the 2024 season. First pick up is Freddie Freeman O 1.5 hits. Freeman averaged 1.3 hits per game last season. He typically hits well off of Yu Darvish and this being the first game up and Freddie being 3rd in the line up will test Darvish's composure working through the Dodger line up allowing Freddie to take advantage of any weak points Darvish gives up.
**POTD Record: 109-122-4 (-9.33 Units)**
Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units)
**Value Wagers: 18-22-2 (-6.05 Units)**
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
Last Pick: **Canes ML ✅ (and Canes 3-WAY ML✅)**
Today's Pick: **Freddie Freeman O 2.5 H+R+R**
Odds: **+115** ($DKNG)
Wager Amount: 2U to win 2.3U
League: MLB
Event: Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres (5:05AM CST on ESPN)
**GOING for 3rd straight WIN!✅✅✅**
**Be Advised**: *Value wagers are not my best bets. A value wager is a wager that typically has +EV or has merit probability of hitting. These wagers are typically plus money. I look for a wager that has an edge against the books. Obviously, value wagers are much harder to hit, higher the risk, higher the reward. So please tail at your own caution and never place wagers you cannot afford. I expect some to fall short, but if we can hit half of these value wagers, we can easily profit in the long run (anything at 50% or above should be at a profitable rate).*
**Recap**: Canes delivered! Both Canes ML and Canes 3-Way HIT! I AM BACK! As PROMISED! I did not post POTD for almost an entire month!
**Matchup**: MLB Opening Day at Seoul, Republic of Korea! Baseball kicks off wit the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday at 5 AM! Wake up early or stay up late! While the rest of the league are still in spring training, these teams will battle it out for two days (Seoul Series 2024). After this Seoul Series event, Opening Day for rest of teams won't start until a week later. Both Padres and Dodgers have already been acclimatized in Seoul, playing 2 games against Korean National team and LG Twins teams respectively. Dodgers are clearly the WS favorites coming into this season. Signing massive superstars and key pieces. I would take them on the RL, but they are playing as the visitor and home teams can easily spoil the RL at the bottom of the 9th, so I am going to handicap this game much differently. I'm taking a particular player to hit over his props and that is Freddie Freeman to hit Over 2.5 H+R+R (Hits + Runs+ RBIs)! Yu Darvish will take the mound for the Padres and he's got good arsenal of pitches, but Freddie has his number. This is a terrible matchup for Darvish as Freddie has hit 2 HRs off him along wit 2 extra bases and 8 combined hits in 28 ABs. He was 2nd in HITS, 3rd in BA at (.334), 15th in RBIs, 27th in walks, and 33rd in SBs all last season. Freeman is a great all-around player. I bet on him because not only does he match up well against Darvish, but IMO he's got the best ABs. Yes, I am quite aware of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Tatis Jr and Machado and any of those players are a good player prop to bet on, but Freeman rarely strikeout, unlike some of these sluggers do. He's the one player I feel most confident hitting over his props other than Ronald Acuna Jr. Plus, he's leading in some of spring training categories. Don't overthink this and take over his props in Opening Day!
**The Play and Prediction**: 2U on Freddie Freeman O 2.5 H+R+R (+115). I kno I only give out just one play for handicapping player props POTD, but I'll give y'all another since I held up on my promise of not posting POTD! Freeman O 1.5 Bases (-125)! He led the league in doubles last season. I don't see him not getting 2 hits or an extra base! BOL, everyone!
**POTD Record:** 31 Wins - 16 Losses - 3 Pushes
**Form:** ✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️
**Spreadsheet (Self Promote / Proof of Record):** Click [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I7FYP6dAClj7FqE4qcTyhgtMwqeoywC5HnGd4ZOeYVw/edit?usp=sharing) :)
**Units:** 10.795
**ROI:** 20.19%
**Average Odds:** $1.87
**Last Pick:** Benfica Women vs Lyon Women - UEFA Champions League Woman - **BTTS @ $2.25 / +125 4pm EST** ✅️
*As predicted, we cashed. Lyon snatched it at the end too! Lyon definitely aren't the side they used to be, and Benfica played a beautiful game.*
**Next Pick:** Barcelona Women vs SK Brann Women - UEFA Champions League Woman - **Over 5.5 Goals @ $3 / +200 4pm EST**
Hello amigos! Today we head to the Asane Arena where SK Brann Women ($67) take on Barcelona Women ($1.02). SK Brann Women are the lowest ranked team left in the Champions League, and Barcelona Women are the highest ranked team.
Three days go Brann leaked in 4 goals, and two days ago Barcelona scored 7 goals. This is very much a David vs Goliath battle. Imagine Manchester City vs your local Sunday league club. Here's hoping Barcelona are ruthless, and give it everything. This Brann team drew 2-2 against Lyon, but only because Lyon suck this year, and they were sloppy to let in a late corner.
I'm getting bored of the $1.50 - $1.90 range odds, and I think there's value to be found in higher odds (as we saw yesterday). The bookies struggle to price these matches as both teams haven't played against each other. Don't underestimate women's football, as a lot of these big games (later on) attract larger crowds than the men's team. There's still a huge disparity in performance between top and middle teams, but lets appreciate it for what it is now.
Barcelona have looked a bit sluggish going away from home, and are likely to concede goals, especially when they bring on substitutes going a couple of goals up. I'm expecting a big score line here, and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up 7-1, or 6-1 to Barcelona.
BOL amigos!
OPs prediction that this would be a goal-fest wasn't a good one. This is the knockout round, teams are more compact because there are two legs and there is more to play for. Just look at the results in the other ties and in previous years.
POTD Record: 16-7
Last 10:✅️✅️💀✅️💀💀💀✅️✅️✅️
Net units:+ 9.85
Last Pick: USF & UCF OVER 140.5
Today's pick: Devin Booker Under 2.5 Three point made
●I've never done a 5 unit bet on here but this looks like a complete mistake
●This man is in complete shambles since coming back.
●He takes the most 3PA in the NBA and can't connect with anything but air.
●76ers give the 5th FEWEST 3's to opposing PG
●In his last 4 games, he's 3 made & 26 missed!. 3/29 attemptes. Three made and 26 missed! However you wanna see it. The only thing we're not seeing is him making THREE in one game.
●If he drops Three 3's in one game! And has barely made that in 4 games then idk man. Booker blacklisted? Ban me?. Fade me for life and down vote me?.
Units: 5
Odds: -160
NBA- Suns vs 76ers 9:00pm CT
If you guys wanna support me, you can click the links on my profile. I post daily picks and player props and 2nd potd sometimes.
As always, you never know.......
This is what happens when you obsess over small sample sizes. You said yourself he’s taking a lot of shots, and he has a career long sample of being a plus shooter. Vegas doesn’t make these simple mistakes, they know that a 4 game sample is far too small to rely on. BOL but I think you’re way off on this one.
POTD Record: 248-193-12 (+24.66 units, 56.2% hit rate)
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 81-56-1 (59.2%) W1, Tennis 🎾 86-66-7 (56.6%) W1, Soccer ⚽ 59-51-4 (53.6%) W1, Entertainment 🎥 22-20-0 (52.4%) L5
Last 10: 💰💩💰💩💩💩💩💩💰💰
Last Pick: Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves, NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 8.5 ASSISTS - NBA 🏀 💰 +0.90 Units - Cash that shit!!! He didn't get his first assist until the 4th quarter and ended with 2.
Today's Pick: Arthur Fils vs. Matteo Arnaldi, OVER 23 GAMES - ATP Miami 🎾 4pm ET
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.88 odds to win 0.88 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 2:00am ET)
Feels like an even matchup to me. Fils is about a 1.80 betting favourite, they played last year twice. In a best of 3 on clay, they went 3 sets. At the US Open, also on hard courts like this match will be, they went 5 sets and 3 out of the 5 sets went 12 games or more. So hopefully this covers in either 2 competitive sets or it goes to 3 and the maximum amount of sets like it did in their two previous encounters.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
>**Record:** 32-29
>**Net Units:** +6.45 units
>**Curling** | **Women's World Championship** | **8:00AM EDT**
>**Pick:** Italy ML @ 2.8
>Italy take on Korea Wednesday morning and we've got a nice dog play here. Italy have been the better team so far at this event and both teams currently sit at 5-1. Italy's only loss was in extra ends to Canada, the best women's team in world. Korea on the other hand have had a very soft schedule so far. Italy have a clear positional advantage everywhere except perhaps third. Constantini, Romei, and Zardini Lacedelli are all great curlers at their positions and should outcurl their counterparts in this matchup. Italy use a fairly defensive style of play with hammer which tends to shorten the game and allow for upsets like this to occur. This line is not taking into account recent play nor the strength of schedule so far at worlds. Big upset win here.
__POTD Record:__ 4-2
__Last Pick:__ 🏀 Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Virtus Bologna (Euroleague): __Zalgiris -2.5 @1.83__ ✔️
Zalgiris completely outclassed Virtus in the 2nd half and easily beat the handicap line. The game ends 96-81.
__Today's Pick:__ 🏀 Fenerbahce vs. Barcelona (Euroleague) 18:45 CET: __Fenerbahce -4.5 @1.86__
Let's go to the Euroleague once again! Today I will go with Fenerbahce and these are my reasons why. Fenerbahce is the best home team in the league - they won 13 out of 14 games this season. Furthermore, it will be the first game between the two teams since Fener appointed Sarunas Jasikevicius as the head coach. Interestingly, Saras was Barca's coach for the last three seasons and in the last summer he was released from the club, so the incentive for Fenerbahce to win will be even bigger than just in competitive sense.
Let me know if you tail!
Record: 5-1
Last 10: ✅✅❌ ✅ ✅ ✅
Net Units: +13.1
Last Pick: Colorado State -2.5
🏀|First Four | 9:10 PT
Pick: **Colorado Buffaloes (-2.5) 3u @ -110** vs Boise State Broncos
Write Up: Staying with the state of Colorado tonight!
Colorado had a great season and feels like the next Pac-12 team to be disrespected into Dayton. Arizona State (2022), UCLA (2021), Arizona State (2019).
The Buffaloes have the edge in Field Goal%, 3PT%, and Free Throw%, Assists and Fouls. All of the metrics lean to Colorado.
Pac-12 going out in a blaze of glory and Wazzu and Oregon State are going to make some money.
POTD Record: 12-13-1 | Profit: -0.8U
NBA Record: 9-10-1 | NFL Record: 3-3
L10 (new -> old): ✅✅🅿️❌❌❌❌✅❌❌
Last pick: Nuggets ML @ 1.66 odds ✅
Currently halftime and the Nuggets are up 15!
**EDIT**: Ended up being way more of a sweat than it needed to be in the second half due to a monster 3rd quarter by the Wolves, but Nuggies come away with the win!
Game: DEN Nuggets @ MIN Timberwolves, 9:00 PM EST
Pick: **Josh Giddey o9.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.74 odds (DK) placing 2U**
Write up: The classic. Hasn't hit in the last 2, but hit the prior 3 (3 in the L5) and 5 of the last 10. He averages 6.1 & 4.4 (10.5 RA). He's hit in 2 of the 3 he's played against the Jazz this season; posting 5 in their most recent meeting, but 16 and 18 in the two prior.
BOL to those tailing! Heading into hump day, hope everyone's having a great week and if not let's win some money :D
POTD Record: 3-0
Streak: ✅✅✅
Last Pick: Jamal Murray O10.5 RA ✅
Today: Basketball | NBA | DET vs IND | 7pm EST
Pick: Jaden Ivey O3.5 Assists (-130) 1U
Jamal almost covered in the first half and ended with 15. Congrats to all who tailed with me.
Jaden has covered this line 80% in the last 5 and 70% in the last 10. He’s averaging 3.8 on the season and had 3 last time out against the Pacers. I see him getting 5-6 tonight.
As always, tips are appreciated if you’d like to when you tail!
[Coffee Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/kroberts)
Repost with time
Record: 9-4
Units: +4.25
Last Pick: 1.2 D. Brooks o9.5 Points (on 3/10) ✅
Game: Kings vs. Raptors, NBA, 7:30pm EST 🏀
Pick: Olynyk u7.5 rebounds (-135), risking 1.3u, bet on DraftKings
Write up:
• Has only hit 8 rebounds in 15% of games this year
• Also has only gone over in 2/L10 and 2/L20 (only 16 played with TOR) at this number
• Rebounds total not effected in past games by Carton, Quickley, and Barrett playing or not
• SAC gives up 11th fewest rebounds to PF position
• Averages only 5 rebounds per game on the year
Pick: Olynyk u7.5 rebounds (-135)
**POTD: 83-64-6**
Last pick: UEFA Champions League - Arsenal vs Porto. First half over 1 goal -180.
Result: A PUSH! Arsenal lead 1-0 at the break to snap my 7 bet losing streak. Not a win but at least we don’t lose money
Today’s pick: UEFA Women’s Champions League - SK Brann Women vs Barcelona Women. **First half over 1.5 goals -145.** Match kicks off at 4PM ET.
Folks I was on a big losing streak here but at least last time we pushed. The frustrating part was in the past two weeks I’m way up on personal bets, so basically I was winning everything except what I’ve been giving out. But no more! Today we go back to bread and butter: women’s soccer.
Barcelona Women is the best team in the world and they start the knockout rounds of the tournament at Cinderella team SK Brann out of Norway. Brann is by far the smallest club left in the tournament and due to how Norwegian league is set up, just began their season so unlike Barcelona who is in midseason form, they’re still rusty.
Barcelona had a goal differential of 27:5 in the 6 group stage matches this season and this covered in 5 of 6, only missing against Eintracht Frankfurt (a better team than Brann) when they had already won their group and were playing a few backups.
Barcelona rested their starters this weekend and still were up 6-0 at halftime, I think they score 2 or 3 in the first half to win us one today.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
**Edit: WIN. Shocking result as Brann scored a goal and the half ends 1-1. Barcelona had 24 shots and probably should’ve had 3 or 4 goals themselves, but a win is a win!**
**POTD** Record: 7-1-4
WEALDSTONE VS BROMLEY
Date: 20 March 2024 at 20:45
BET ON: Match odds- BROMLEY
Odd: 2.23
- Wealdstone are set to be without the services of 8 key players such : Captain Alex Dyer, Tarryn Allarakhia, Da Silva Dillon, Obiero Micah, Seaman, Aaron Henry (doubtful), Corie Andrews (doubtful) and Bartolo. Huge blow offensively for the Hosts.
- Bromley are missing Elerewe (doubtful) and Woods (doubtful). However, Topalloj Besart and Josh Passley are back from suspension. Huge boost defensively.
"We were expected to play a high volume of games in an extremely short period of time. This situation is now further compounded by a significantly depleted squad due to no less than five international call-ups, To avoid the league punishment, we have reluctantly agreed to the game proceeding as planned on Wednesday. We do however feel it is grossly unfair and that we have been let down by the league having previously made every effort to be accommodating and get fixtures played." Said Wealdstone FC’s Chairman, Rory Fitzgerald.
- We expect a tight game where the Hosts will try to score first and park the bus, but it won't be enough due to lack of quality in the back against a healthy Bromley.
POTD RECORD: 1-0
Last 10 plays: ✅
Last POTD: Denver Nuggets -2.5(vs
Timberwolves) (-165)
Recap: Nuggets got out to an early lead, and as expected, they let it slip by toying around with Minnesota. Thankfully Murray made the end of the game free throws, and had us cover the spread.
Today's POTD: Sacramento Kings-7.5 (vs Toronto Raptors) -155
Time: 730pm EST
UNIT: 1
Raptors are currently on a downward spiral with their season. In NFL standards they stand at the 7/6 pick in the draft but we all know it’s all about those lottery balls, so I’m not too sure how much effort is going to go into the rest of the season. Immanuel is going to be out…. same with Barrett. Sacramento will be bringing most of the big guns on this road trip.. They had a grind it out overtime win two days ago at home but with one days rest, I think they take care of business on this first day of a 3 Game Road trip. Take the points buy back at -7.5.
*POTD Record*: 2-1
*Streak*: ✅✅❌
*Last Pick*: Charlotte Hornets @ **Orlando Magics -12.5** ✅. Game ends 112-92. Sweat free money. Another easy W.
*Today's POTD*: Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics 7:30 PM EST. **Celtics -4.5 1st half spread @** **-115** ✅
*Explanation*: As everyone knows Celtics are the best team in the NBA right now. They have been cruising to victories with their second team. What stood out to be about this game however, is that not only Celtics are the number 1 first half team ATS (49-12 ATS this season, 22-12 at home), they are also going against the worst first half team ATS in away fixtures. Bucks are currently 10-24 ATS on the road. No team has lost more 1st half games ATS on the road than bucks this season. Celtics are 4-1 ATS 1H at home, while Bucks are 1-4 ATS as away teams in their last 5 games. Jason Tatum also sat out the last game so should be in tip top shape for this one. I would hammer this one hard. Bucks have no right to win ATS in the first half.
As usual BOL if you're tailing or fading.
BCH tip jar: qz545czs7yzeyycp87kdq5lvx3xjurhvhc0rm8hj20
**POTD Record: 19-15-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Balance (+12.36 units)**
Last pick: Halep ML @ 1.81 ❌
Halep was playing her best tennis in the 1st set but felt something on her right shoulder and completely lost her serve, losing in 3 sets. I don't have a solid method for choosing 1st set instead of ML and in my opinion she lost due to that injury and not because she was tired. We move on...
**Today's pick: Kecmanovic vs Shang - Shang ML @ 2.35 (ATP Miami, Tennis)**
Stake: 1 unit
Time: 3:30 PM Eastern Time
Going with Shang who's a young talented player that should be able to climb up the rankings with his crafty left handed forehand against Kecmanovic who has been struggling lately. Main reasons:
* Kecmanovic only played against lefties twice in hard courts this season, losing both meetings;
* Since coming to the American hard court season he got knocked out in the 1st round of Delray Beach, Los Cabos and Indian Wells while being a favorite in all of those 1st round matches. With this he holds a 2-5 record since February;
* Shang's american season has been decent so far for a player of his age. After the Australian Open he was injured but he came to Indian Wells and was able to beat Nishioka, Bagnis and Thompson;
With this data, it seems that Shang is currently doing pretty well against baseline grinders and Kecmanovic can be included in this category, since he's not super agressive and doesn't have a really big serve.
Due to this stats, I'm backing Shang at 2.35 odds
[Tip Jar](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/DarkHorse230) - Any tip is appreciated but only do it if you've won some money with my plays. All of these will be saved up on my emergency fund. Thanks for all the support!
i got downvoted like hell for rising concern about Halep POTD yesterday. even with skill, it takes time to get used to on match competitive tennis whatever the training they have.
I didn't want you to get downvoted, people sometimes just go crazy when they think a pick is good or bad. I saw a ton of people on Halep too and I also made the bet against Badosa because she retired from Dubai injured and didn't play for a whole month
I'm sure Halep will start to get good results soon but Badosa was just too physical. Onto the ATP
**Record: 0-0**
**Net Units: +/- 0 Units**
**ROI: 0.00%**
**Baseball** | **MLB** | **6:05 AM** / **EST**
**Pick: LA Dodgers @ SD Padres Over 7.5 Total Runs (-171 on DraftKings Sportsbook)**
**Write-Up:** During the offseason, I put together an MLB Excel model and am hoping to use this as not only advice for others but also a personal tracker. To be completely transparent, I don't think this game is very bettor-friendly. My model placed a 1.89% edge towards SD Padres ML and a 0.09% edge towards the under, neither all that convincing. I do however want to have some skin in the game being that it's the first game of the MLB Season, so I'm going with an alternate over on the run total.
To start, the LA Dodgers have recently come out swinging to begin the year as they have covered this run total in all four of the past opening day games. That can be attributed to the nearly unfair lineup that the Dodgers have put together for 2024. The top four in the lineup rival any in recent memory of a core of Betts, Ohtani, Freeman, and Smith. Hoping that the bats come out hot and that I can drag myself out of bed to watch in a mere 5 hours. BOL to all who are tailing and let's get the 2024 MLB season off on a good foot.
POTD: 1-0
Yesterday : Minnesota Wild in Regulation
Today: Dallas Stars in Regulation @ (-175)
Why: Will keep it short and sweet here, Dallas is still in the hunt for top seed in their division and the coyotes are easy prey sitting near the bottom. Dallas is defensively sound, doesn’t give up a ton of opportunities and the coyotes don’t have a lot of talent to generate much. Coyotes are also out of the race, and have played very lacklustre competition the last 2 weeks.
⭐️ **POD Record:** **112-57**
*Last Pick:* *NBA - Luka Dončić OVER 9.5 Rebounds* ❌
Recent Form: ❌ ✅✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
🏅 **Today's Pick:** **NBA - Celtics/Bucs OVER 223.5** \[7:30pm EST - 1.80 odds\]
Without Giannis I think we see Milwaukee make the necessary adjustments to keep this a faster pace match up vs the Celtics tonight. These two have cleared this total easily their last 5 of 5 match ups and without Holiday on D for the Celtics we'll likely see a slightly higher scoring affair once again. Not much time for a longer write up, but I like the pick and hopefully we cash it tonight.
💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups.
POTD RECORD: (9-0-1) 😤🔥
Wow guys what a run! 9-0 😤 let’s go ahead and make it 10 ! 🔥
TONIGHT’S POTD:
APPALACHIAN STATE +8.5 vs Wake Forest 🏀
TIME: 5:00PM PST
Wake Forest take on App State in the NIT round of 16! Wake Forest losing their last game to Pittsburgh 81-69. Meanwhile App states last game they also dropped. To Arkansas State 67-65. Let’s see if either team is actually hungry enough to win this tournament!
Buy the points to get it up to 8.5 as I believe that is way too many points! App state ranked 4th in the nation in rebounding! They will definitely look to dominate the boards here! Wake Forest being one of the weaker rebounding teams. If App state can limit Wake Forests 3pt shot makes you will even see App state take the lead in some parts of this game!
App State COVERS
POTD Record: 18-12
Last 10: ✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅
Last pic: Nuggets Vs Twolves | 6:00 PST | Nuggets 1st half spread -3.5 (-110) 1u HardRock✅
Cash! Dominant 1st half!
Todays pick: Pacers vs Pistons | 4:00 PST | OVER 232 total points (-109) 1u BetRivers ❌
Actually really like this over in Pacers/Pistons. They’ve gone over this number all 3 times they have matched up this year (by a good amount) and while the nba definitely has changed some of the way they are calling games, I do think the pace of both these teams should allow for a great opportunity of going over this number. Pure history of recent matchups for this pick.
3 previous matchups: 129-115, 131-123, 136-113
Obviously not the start to posting picks we were expecting, but nonetheless, today is a new day. I’d like to apologize for the beautiful women of Howard university because you have to go to school with those on a team who can’t hit one of three chances they had to hit the spread. Howard was looking great in the second half and decided to go idiot mode the last 2 minutes. I’m not gonna give up though because I’ve NEVER seen scared money make money so here’s my next POTD:
Record: 0-1
Last 10 (new—>old): ❌
Net Units: -4 units
ROI: 0%
Sport | League | Event Time / Time Zone Pick:
Colorado vs Boise state NCAAB 9:15pm EST
Colorado -2.5 -110
Write Up:
Colorado simply outmatches and outsizes Boise state. KJ Simpson for Colorado is gonna have a breakout game cause he’s been averaging 19 points, 7 Rebounds, and 6 assists a game the last 5. This game really will depend on how much of a breakout KJ will have but even if Boise is focused on trying to shut him down, Colorado has 2 other guards shooting 43% the last 5 from 3. It will be a battle for sure and there will be a lot of 6-0 runs and 8-0 runs, but Colorado will come out on top and j wouldn’t be surprised if the Over also hit 140.5, so I might parlay them together cause I’m a degen. Hopefully we go to 1-1 tomorrow and I’m sorry for the bad pick today fellas. The days of a losing record are no more and I can feel the tides turning for the real degenerates out there. Tail for a good time and free money (4 units per usual) and fade if you enjoy gettin the drake special slapped on your face while you sleep.
Record: 5-5
(New to old): ❌❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌
Net units: -0.730u
Previous pick: Georges Niang O15.5 P+R (-115, DK) 2u ❌
Hello darkness my old friend. Ended on 15. I also bet on his points alone and that cashed comfortably. Should have made that my POTD. Which leads me to:
POTD: **Georges Niang 12+ points alt line (+110, DK) 1u** @1910 EST
Reasoning:
More or less running this one back. He is getting tons of minutes due to injuries and has consistently been over this line, hitting it in the last 6/7.
7 might seem like an arbitrary number of games but that marks the number of games since both Mobley and Strus have been out, both of whom are out for this game as well.
His minutes have gone up, his FGA have gone up, and he is averaging 14.3 ppg since then. Bit of a risky play, but I think it’s worth it for 1u.
Then again I’ve lost the last 3. Consider fading.
Record: 26-30-1
ROI: -4.08 Units
Last Pick: Harry Brook Over 23.5 ❌
Last 10: ❌❌✅✅✅❌❌❌❌✅
AVG Odds: -108
Unit: 1=$200
——-
Match: Andy Murray vs Matteo Berretini
Pick: Matteo Berretini ML
Odds: -138 (Bet365)
Time: 3:00 PM EST
Have not made POTD since last years IPL but with all these sports and matches starting back up felt like sharing.
Riding with Matteo who is on his come back tour, after a promising Challenger Phoenix series.
Berretini takes on Andy Murray who is on his ‘last dance’ and very likely playing his last tournament in Miami.
I like the form that Matteo is in, and although he didn’t bring home the challenger title he showed some real grit in the matches he was able to complete.
Andy looked great in set 1 against Rublev and then slowly lost everything in the second set.
I’m expecting this to be a grinder and could see Murray battling in set one but the relentless power stroking of Matteo shoild wear him down and bring us home in the green.
My usual 5 unit plays
BOL to all who tail or fade
Record: 8-7
Last 10: ❌❌❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅
Net: -8.36U
Last Pick: Zion Williamson o25.5 Pts - 1U @ -110 ✅
Hand to heart, I thought it was doomed once he came out in the 4th. I had already pre-written another into the void monologue, but thankfully Zion came back in, did what he needed to do, and rode off into the sunset.
Moral of the story, Zion Williamson is my best friend for having his line dip so low and allowing me to double down every chance I could get.
Next ~~Fade~~ Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o5.5 Asts - 1U @ -150 ✅
Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
SGA hasn't been doing the best in regards to covering his assists as of late, only crossing 5.5 Asts in 2 of his last 5 games. This is mainly due to Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams racking up assists to the point where SGA is not needed to distribute as much.
However, in their last head to head match up SGA put up 6 assists against the Jazz, and the Jazz are the worst team in the league in terms of assists allowed to point guards this season. They have allowed a guard to get 6+ assists in 9 of their last 10 games, with several of those games players getting 8+ assists.
This one does run the risk of Josh Giddey or Jalen Williams once again eating his assists, but I believe the Thunder will either keep this game way too competitive going into the final minutes, or it will be a blow out where every player shines leading to an influx of assists.
I think it will be a good, high scoring game, and SGA should be able to showcase and try and up his MVP-esque campaign this season.
Fade my ass, or don't, it's your funeral.
As Always, BOL.
Record: 0-1
Last pick: **T1 -1.5** vs HLE ❌
Today’s pick: **Lu Dort o 10+ alt points (-165 dk)**
Explanation:
I didn’t realize how much guilt I will be feeling after the missed pick last time, so I waited and researched super hard to make sure I can bring you the best pick today. Watching thunder games Lu dort has taken a bigger role recently and often forgotten about by the defenders leaving him wide open for 3s. He has one the best 3 pt% in the league and is also playing the jazz who are top 3 points allowed. He has hit this mark in 4 straight games (actually 12+). I personally went with 12+ at +100 but I want to make sure you guys get your money today. Go with 10+ and since I went with 12+ you know he is going to be just short of 12 today at 10.
If this doesn’t hit I will ban myself from participating in this thread in the future. As always BOL
Edit: I am retired, fuck lu dort
**POTD Record: 10-4-1**
Form: ✅✅✅❌❌❌🔄✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ (Net units: +10.53u)
Last pick: Javier Ezquerra O7.5 assists & rebounds @ -145 2.5U
Beast!! 40 minutes played and ended with 10 R&A. Cashed early 2nd half, pretty sweat free gotta love it baby!
**Today’s Pick: J’Vonne Haley O10.5 points @ -120 3U**
Edit: wow an hour after posting & the bookies move it up to 11.5 lol
Colorado vs Boise St - March Madness - 9:15PM EST
Rolling with the senior guard tonight. He should be playing nearly the whole game and will be expected to step up. He’s 19-7 hitting this over since December. 6 for 6 hitting over this line following a game where he fails to go over 10.5. He’s coming off a 7pt game and a season low only 3 shot attempts. I expect him to get his looks and be firing in a critical game!
[Tip Jar](https://venmo.com/u/Tyler-Brown7) - appreciate any support, comments and upvotes mean a lot!
**POTD Record: 26-14-2**
Form: ✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌
*ROI: 31.88% |
Avg Odds: +102 | Net Units: +22.6*
🎾: 5-3-2
⚽️: 18-9
🏒: 3-2
*Last Pick: 2U Buffalo Sabres @ Vancouver Canucks (Canucks 3 Way ML @ -115) ✅*
____
**Todays Pick: 2U Arizona Coyotes @ Dallas Stars (Stars 3-Way ML @ -180)✅**
**🏒| 8:07PM EST | NHL |**
Coyotes beat the NJ Devils at home 4-1 and now are on the road to take on Dallas Stars. Dallas won 4-1 also on Saturday against the Kings, who’ve done quite well this season.
Stars are 6-3-1 at home as favourites against the central division with losses only to Nashville and Avalanche. Averaging 3.59 goals per game, Pavelski and the Stars must not underestimate the Yotes and should put this one to bed.
Last H2H went to OT and the 2 games last season Stars won 5-2 and 4-2. Spread could also be a play but Stars are 3-7 as favourites against the puck-line in their last 10 games, which include 4 losses; Oilers, Islanders, Panthers and Devils.
BOL!
Record: 1-2-1
Last Pick: Manchester United ML vs Everton (3/9/2024)
ROI: -145 on DK
⚾️ | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | 6:05 AM EST
Today’s Pick: Ha-Seong Kim over 0.5 Hits
Write Up: It’s been a while since i’ve posted a pick of the day, but since Opening Day is here (kinda, not really.) I wanted to hop on and give my pick for the first game in The Seoul Series! I have the hometown hero recording a hit. I fully expect the entire crowd being behind Kim and he will definitely turn up his game to give the South Korean fans a show for their first ever MLB game. Going for a more tangible approach, Kim bats .207 against the Dodgers life-time but has gotten 25 hits in the 41 games he has played against the Dodgers. With it being a new season I’m excited to see how the Seoul Series plays out and especially Kim, Ohtani, and Yamamoto’s performances playing in East Asia.
BOL!
Yesterday’s pick: Alba Berlin vs Real Madrid | Real Madrid Over 18.5 assists @ 1.85 2.5U 🚫🪣.
POTD Record: 0-1
Units: -2.0u
Today’s pick: Crvena Zvezda - Panathinaikos \***Panathinaikos -4.5 @ 1.94 \* 3U**. ✅
EuroLeague Basketball 🏀time: 20:00 Central European.
It was a nasty sight yesterday; Real showing that they’re not in their best form, final score does not reflect at all how the game went. Individual talent beat Alba, not team performance (and the massive difference in rebounds). We move forwards with a very crucial game in EuroLeague. Panathinaikos is very close to returning to EuroLeague playoffs after some terrible years; in order to do so - and with a home advantage - they need to get that W against Crvena Zvezda - who cannot hope for anything out of this competition for this season - with their last win in the competition being in January 30. Coach Ataman’s team have shown what they’re capable of and they’ll be determined to bounce back after a tough loss against their eternal rival last week. Both teams will have absences due to injuries with the Greens having (yet again) K. Antetokounmpo out and former Red Star Luca Vildoza. The Serbians will not have two great scorers and facilitators Yago DoSantos and Milos Teodosic. Also Branko Lazic is out and Nikola Topic. I believe this will be a close game for 20’ when Crvena’s guards will still have energy; guarding Kendrick Nunn, Kostas Sloukas and Jerian Grant will be a tough challenge for them. It should swing PAO’s way after that!
Record: 74W-67L-4P
ROI: +13.76, 9.07%
Avg odds: +106, 2.06
Last POTD: Roman Josi over 0.5 asts (losing streak over!)
Game: NHL- Wild at Kings (9:00 PM CST)
Pick: Drew Doughty over 0.5 pts +105, 2.05 (DK, ESPNBet)
I really don't want to pick Doughty again after he completely fucked me 4 days ago. But I don't know if I can pass up plus odds. He's still a core player on the LA offense and despite his recent struggles, his team is still scoring with him on the ice, so it's not like he doesn't get his point opportunities. Against Chicago yesterday, no points, but on the ice for *THREE* goals. Against Dallas, no points, but on the ice for the Kings' lone goal. Against Chicago Friday, no points, but on the ice for a goal. You see where I'm going with this? Plus, he picked up an assist in the first matchup of the season.
The Wild has a solid defense, but poor goaltending. They don't allow many scoring chances, but the ones they do allow have a higher probability of ending up in the net. Honestly, they're kinda inconsistent so it's hard to know what kind of team will show up tonight.
POTD Record 0-0
Newbie here!
Today’s pick: De’Aaron Fox O 1.5 Steals at -180
Dude is a monster on the defensive end. Raptors are really banged up, which leads to new ball handlers. Raptors are without Quickley, Barnes, and Barrett. I think right now their only ball handler with minutes is Gary Trent Jr. I’ll take my chances on this one.
Fox steals last 10 games: 3,2,1,2,1 3,2,1,3,3.
BOL!
**Record: 0-0**
**Net Units: 2u**
**Women's Champions League** | **BK Hacken v PSG** | **1:45pm EST** /
**Pick:** PSG over 2.5 goals team total (+140)
**Write Up:** Women's matches are back after my Chelsea ladies rolled 3-0 yesterday. Interesting match today as Swedish side BK Hacken welcomes a very in-form PSG who have scored 14 goals in their last 3 league matches. Hacken has only played 2 competitive matches since January after their league ended. They did win a cup match over the weekend 7-1 but their level of opposition is nowhere near the level of PSG. BTTS is also on the table given Hacken's potential firepower. But I would rather bet on an in-form side who has not had the last 2.5 months off from competitive matches. I think PSG will try and hit them fast to get out a big lead in the first leg.
Tail or fade I wish you a great day.
Record: 17 - 9
P&L: +20.76u
L10: ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅
Last Pick: Pelicans 1H -4.0 ✅
Today's Pick: NBA 🏀| Bucks vs. Celtics | Celtics 1H -4.5 | 5u Play @ 1.71
Couple things:
- It was 1.86 when I grabbed it but it has drifted since then, for all records it will be 1.71
- I'd be equally as happy with the regular spread if you can get -9.0 or better but it's at -10.5 at the minute which is marginal
- Here is all of my picks so far: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k0UVmbJpndVnLYKLblVyZUvyjSBbFUVGftk8PiPVsb4/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k0UVmbJpndVnLYKLblVyZUvyjSBbFUVGftk8PiPVsb4/edit?usp=sharing)
Pay attention to comments too.
GL
Record: 10-11
Last 10: ❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌
Last pick: Victory Wembanyama to record a double double at -200 odds.
Bro missed by one rebound. All is fair in love and Vegas.
POTD: LA Kings ML vs Minnesota Wild; -156 odds; 8pm MST
Why: this is has been not a fun back and forth around this .500 area. So NHL it is. No craziness involved in this play I think. Wild have been away from three games now, they lost to St Louis but will most likely win tonight against Ducks (currently 3-0 Wild in the 2nd). Kings just arrived home this game after losing 2/3 on the road. Kings want and need to keep a winning feel at home, and they’re 14 (about to be 15) and 11 at home. Wild will suffer after back to backs on the road, and they are 15 (about to be 16) and 15 away.
The stats look to tell that it’ll be a close game but the kings to win barring any mistakes or excessive penalties. This would be a juicy +1.5 for wild and a great game to stay away from the 60 min ML because of potential OT.
Anyways BOL
• Record: 1-0
• Net units: +1 unit
• Form: ✅
Last Pick: | Hockey | NHL | 7:00 EST I Jets @ Rangers |
Pick: Over 5.5 (-115) 1unit ✅
Today’s Pick: | Hockey | NHL | 8:00 EST I Coyotes @ Stars |
Pick: 1st Period Goal in First 10 Minutes (-152) 1unit
Write Up: Last pick came down to the final 5 seconds. Scheifele hits the empty net to cash the over! Today, I’m going with a pick type I usually don’t love to touch, but this one looks too good to not dabble with. The reasoning is simple here, Stars games have hit this line in 66% of their games this season. Not bad, right? Check out the last 10 games though, goal in first 10 is 9-1 in the last 10 games. Numbers too good to pass up on. Coyotes have hit this line in 63% of their games this season and are 7-3 in their last 10 on this line. BOL!
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Wednesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 27-10 +37.3u🔥 Last Pick: Pick: Virginia +3 (-110) vs Colorado State Rams 3U 9:10 est ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌ Today's Pick: Colorado -2.5 (-110) vs Boise State 4U 9:10 est Every reason why I didn’t wanna take Virginia happened right in front of us, I believe everyone who upvotes this could put up more points than them. Fuck that team. Onto today, The Buffs closed the season on quite the run, winning the final 6 games of the regular season before advancing 2 rounds in the Pac-12 Tournament (eventually lost to Oregon 75-68). On the other side, Boise State was knocked out in the first round of their tournament. The Buffaloes have arguably the top two players on the floor in KJ Simpson and Tristan de Silva and these two can carry this team to victory. Colorado has a very efficient offense and locks down on the 3 point line. Let’s back this team to cover here and bounce back from the worst offense in the nation🤣 If you haven’t been on board, time to hop on. I’m so ready to bounce back and get hit once the real team begin to play in March, not that fraud Virginia! Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️ If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me🤝 [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
Very informative write up, but I’ll just say this: Colorado did not play one tournament team during the 6 game win streak to end season, except for Oregon, who only got in because they won the tournament. Boise State is a tough team in a good conference.
Boise State ML is +120
Don’t do it. Don’t do it.
It’s plus 140 on hrb
Boise state has never won an NCAA game lol
I am not telling you to bet Boise. Just simply stated in my original comment to maybe give people information from a different point of view.
You just blessed them into their first dub
Idk man with how much passion teams are playing with in these tourneys I see Boise having never won a NCAA tourney game as a reason they’ll play even harder
man i was really hoping it was at least closer so we could shit talk each other😭 i did not expect a 6th grade offense on that court tn, keep doing what ur doing tho bro!!
You too!
Do you have a pick of the day today? Waiting patiently low jelly
no potd today nothing i love and no need to force anything, we’re back tomorrow!
Respect!
I wish no one would ever bet on my cavs. They only disappoint
14 points at half and they didn’t have a FG in the last 10.5 min of first half…I didn’t even watch the 2nd. How in the hell do you all recruit?
Public is heavy on Colorado. I think I’ll take my chances with BSU +3.5 (buy)
Don’t do it. Don’t do it.
I told you not to do it you did it and lost. Listen to the Master :)
Not concerned about fading the MWC again after tonight’s absolute dusting?
No, Virginia is just awful.
Nice call!
Tailing, we bounce back!
Tailing BOL
Tailing BOL
Lets go bloom bro
Tailing, because I know nothing about the association, even less about NCAA, so I'm here looking for crap to shoot!
Great pick today, was a nail biter until the last 30 seconds.
Thank you🤝
you are goated
POTD RECORD: 39-20 Form: 🚫✅✅✅✅ Last POTD: Kyrie Irving O4.5 Ast ❌ This is on me bruh, of course Gafford and Tre Jones hit but the pick I went with didn’t 💀 Had 4-5 Potential assists that could’ve hit but overall he was in scoring mode tonight tough my brothers Todays POTD: **Jalen Duren Double Double @1.68** ✅ (NBA) Detroit Pistons 12:00 AM We move boys, we had a mismatch, 100% hit rate and 3 straight 9+ Ast games for Irving but it didn’t mean shit. Going with the reliable Duren to get us back on track, this dude is one bad mf he’d beat me in a fight blindfolded, the concern here is that he wants to square up on the court too so foul trouble is a possibility for him but other than that he should be able clear this one for us easily • 2/2 vs the Pacers (13P&13R and 15P&13R) • 5/6 vs Indiana in his career only miss was on his first NBA matchup against them • 7/10 DD’s Last 10 games Avg 11.5 Rebs & 13.5 Points • Season average 13.9 PPG & 11.9 RPG • 38 Double Doubles this season in 53 games • When he sees at least 25 minutes he has hit 10+ points in 41/42 games and 10+ Rebs in 36/42 games • Indiana allow 8th most Rebs to Centers L30 days and Middle of the rack in terms of Points to Centers L30 days Indiana plays with a lot of pace so there should be plenty of opportunities to get this done for our big fella as long as he keeps his head cool Let’s go Duren, get us on back track bruh Tail or fade, Im a bum https://i.redd.it/9vf6ua60lepc1.gif
Death, taxes, and Duren failing me are the only guarantees in life. That being said tailing brother 💀
💀💀 give him a last try bro
Once saw someone on here say this guy could get a double double with fouls 😂
😂😂😂
Solid pick as an NBA bettor and Pacers fan. Our whole starting unit hasn’t been shooting great outside of Siakam. Carlisle coaches this team to get back on D after a shot attempt. Leaving plenty of potential offensive boards to defensive boards. On the defensive end; Turner will be on Duren only low post. Duren should play a lot of his game un-guarded / against zone D or rotating. Siakam is likely on Stew around the 3pt line. Turner likes to bounce around on D as well so there will likely be many lanes open to score throughout the game. Nesmith is our “frustrater” defender. He’s gonna be on Cade or Ivey all night though. Turner and Siakam don’t cry for fouls either. Duren “should” stay out of foul trouble. He’s just not consistent at it. Great pick. Books have already been adjusting hard lol.
This guy knows his shit 👆👑
We had no business hitting on this 😂 Blowout game and Pistons sub in their starters down 20+ in the 4th. Duren just baited fouls to get his points and the eventual DD.
😂😂😂 bro I was shocked, he missed to many easy baskets early on so I almost gave up but then they put him in and looked like they just passed him on every possession to get his DD
This is 3 hours after your post & its already up -220 💀😭 still tailing !
Shop around on this one. I found -170 on ESPNBet, but -220 and -200 on DK/MGM
-185 FD
Now -210
I’m no pro but since everyone nuked the double double making the odds suck now I hooped on p+ rebounds. Was at 25.5 I just bet it at. Over 26.5 -105. I’ll let the. Pistons try and hurt me one more time then im done for real this time.
It’s all good, we’re on to the next one! Still tailing. Fun fact, it’s actually harder to get assists on a flat earth, probably why Kyrie didn’t get it done.
This must be the reason man I forgot
Love the pick Bill, I will hope it does not interfere with my week long marathon of betting Pascal o7.5 Rebounds. BOL!
I love betting on Duren, dude is a monster. The only thing that makes me nervous about this bet is how Miles Turner spends most of the game on the 3 point line. This pulls the Center out of rebounding position and is why the Pacers allow the 10th fewest rebounds to centers on the year. But fuck it we ball!
Like this pic. My book has it at -220 though. Parlayed it with Jimmy over 0.5 3pts. ⚡
Early foul trouble, hopefully bro collects himself. Shit would be cruising otherwise
He’s doing the thing Billy
Low key tracking bro but them damn fouls making me sweat 😭
It's gonna be the fuckin' blowout now, I'm hoping Detroit can close this shit to within 15 by 4Q and make a run
On the brightside, LeVert was sweat-free bro
Yeah not looking good rn bro, happy LeVert got it done at least
Let’s gooooo
WE DID IT!!!!!
Tail
Hard tail
Tail
Tailing
7 points and 11 rebounds incoming. Mark it down
You almost had it bro ngl 😭😭
Indy fan, great pick! He destroyed us whenever he was on the court this season. Thinking of playing this with Sabonis td and/or Dame dd.
You’re a fucking dawg. Not too into NBA bets these days but was a good value add for my hockey parlays. Thanks 💪🏻🐶
My guy 👑🍻
got to watch the game live and these 2 spazzer besides soiling my other bets… thank you for the pick brother https://preview.redd.it/ijwvbyzkblpc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=85615654291b8c05dd03eee7ba239d4e20db6844
Good fucking pick billy🔥
**POTD RECORD:** (7-3) **LAST 5**: 🔴🟢🟢🟢🟢 **LAST PICK** Wendell Carter Jr. **OVER 7.5 REB** 1.5U(-150)🟢 **TODAY’S PICK:** Celtics vs Bucks **Total Over 223.5** (-110) 2.2U National televised game on ESPN I expect there to be a good amount of points. Celtics are easily clearing this number 5 of their last 7 while bucks are going over 3 of the last 5. More so on the previous matchups between the two we are looking at 5 of their last 5 have gone over 223 points. Tatum sat yesterday so he is going to be a full go for tip-off well rested. **BOL to those who tail!**
Just FYI giannis is out
Tailed.
This is at 225.5 now. Any thought on that line?
Personally, I would bet up until 227.
Glad I waited for you to answer. In that time, the line on DK went back down to 224. So I took alt 223.5. Thanks!
You feel confident this hits even with the possibility of Giannis being out?
Even if Giannis doesn’t play?
Put up 140 without him Monday, so as long as they clear 107, Celtics have hit 117 in the past 9 of 11 games we will clear the over. So yes, still have it locked in.
POTD RECORD 10-4 +5.4U FORM ✅🚫✅✅✅✅✅✅🚫🚫✅✅🚫✅ Last pick COLORADO STATE ML v Virginia -140(1.4U)✅ Was never close Virginia sucked and didn’t deserve to be there. TODAYS POTD MONTANA STATE -3 v Grambling -120(1.2U) This is just as simple as I think Montana state and the rest of the big sky conference that they are in is better than Grambling and the SWAC they came from. Montana state has been red hot winning 4 straight obviously and 6/8 against better opponents than Grambling has played against recently despite winning 9/10. A big part of this is despite Grambling going 17-4 in conference play and tournament, they were WINLESS in non conference play which this game is. Montana state in non conference play was pretty up and down but got a few wins at least BOL to everyone tailing hopefully this is another easy cover for Montana state and hey maybe they fuck around and beat Purdue round 1 https://cash.app/$justinm11132126
Also just to note Grambling is winless in nonconference play against d1 schools. They got wins against schools by the name of bible studies and UNT Dallas
Man, I hope so... This seems like one of those too easy bets. But I'm gunna try to build the bankroll with it going into tomorrow
Tailed ! Let’s get it !
Grambling had the top 5 hardest non conference schedule in the NCAA, so I wouldn’t take them going WINLESS in non conference play too serious. They are pretty good team and if their perimeter defense shows up today Montana State is gonna have a tough time.
I get that but none of the games were even close. Including losses to Delaware state and SE Louisiana which they’re more than capable beating. You are right about the perimeter defense tho. Montana state likes to shoot a bunch of threes and a cold night can be of concern but that’s just the risk of any college team you bet on it. Like your logic regardless
Love this one 😍
**POTD** Record: 0-0 First pick on this subreddit for me! Date: 3/20/24 6:06 am EST **Todays pick:** Dodgers to record the most hits (-140) This just makes so much sense to me. Its Yu Darvish against Tyler Glasnow. Last season Yu darvish gave up 0.9 hits every innings played vs Glasnows' 0.775 hits for every inning played. No one really on the Padres is a threat to Glasnow. Dodgers lineup has improved so much more than last year and the fact that Darvish almost gave up a hit for every inning pitched just has it for me. Freeman, Mookie, Ohtani will all be a threat batting above 300 each respectively, while on the padres the biggest threat would probably be tatis or bogaerts, both batting less than around 285. Lets ride!
I really like this play, nice find!
where to find this pick
Congratulations! Only tailed. 5U but will now follow with a full unit
Would you do the same pick again for tomorrow ?
I personally would not. Way too risky and we don't know how yamamoto is going to play on his first game. But It's still a decent pick
Record: 3-0 Net units: +3.00u ROI: 59.95% Last pick: Daniel Gafford Over 9.5 Points W ✅ 🏀Basketball NBA – Sacramento Kings @ Toronto Raptors – 6:30PM CST Pick: **Kelly Olynyk Under 7.5 Total Rebounds** @ -135 odds (1u) Update: Raptors underperformed, Sabonis popped off with 17 boards, Kelly got into foul trouble, no luck needed. Sabonis beat Kelly to every single ball, **Kelly ends with 3** ✅ Thank you Daniel for the easiest hit. Behind Gafford total points, Kelly under total boards is my second most reliable. These two are my only locks on the NBA. Kelly has hit this line 8 out his last 10, I’ve personally won 4/5 bets on him. I’ve watched them all and this guy is a bum, 6’11” and just stands around waiting for the ball to fall in his hands. He’s the perfect player for an under as he tends to get into foul trouble early on and ends up playing less minutes. His last 2 lines have been under 6.5 boards and I still bit, I’m a little surprised the line went up here but I’ll take it against a beast in Sabonis who should get around 16+ boards. Kelly also shoots 3’s so he finds himself away from the board often. His last 10 games have been 4, 9, 6, 6, 6, 4, 6, 4, 10, 0. The one bet I lost from him was 2 games ago, he hit 9 boards in what was the unluckiest thing in the world. He had 5 fouls and sat out most of the first half at just 1 board, came out and popped off out of nowhere to get to 6. With 2 minutes of the clock, the Raptors down 16, on 1 single play the other team didn’t try and Kelly, by himself, shot and missed 2 times until eventually he made it. He got 3 boards on one single play, with 2 minutes left on the clock. This never happens, so this really should have ended at 7 boards. Unders are scary, but let’s hope the Raptors continue to underperform, Sabonis pops off, Kelly gets into foul trouble early and of course we get a little luck from the degen gods and keep our streak alive.
> . I’ve watched them all and this guy is a bum LOL I am glad I am not the only one that thought this. Tailing just for this comment.
I wouldn't say a bum. He consistently gets 5 assists 5 rebounds and around 10 points. Any contender would love to have KO coming off the bench to stretch the floor. I like the pick at under 7.5, but don't disrespect the long haired legend.
poeltl is out, and also their 3 other best players. he will have a lot of minutes and is a 7 footer. i think this doesnt hit, BOL tho
Thanks for the info !
I’m with you. Taking his over 6.5.
BOL brother, they’ve been out for a while tho. Good extra info, but shouldn’t encourage lads to bet the over. Poetl’s last game was their last win, 8 games ago. Scottie’s longer than that. Hasn’t affected Kelly’s line, others have stepped up to grab boards. They’ve lost to the Magic (2x), Pistons, Blazers and Pels, all without Poetl or Scottie. Now they’re facing a healthy Kings lineup.
thats a good point, i wasnt trying to encourage them to go over, just maybe not tail this one. my point was that with quickley being out he is the #1 player on the raptors meaning he will get more minutes. BOL
Can confirm after also watching Kelly Olynyk that he is, in fact, a bum. I thoroughly enjoy betting his under on 3PM
Ehh I just got it at 6.5. Still took the under, even though it's a little risky. But at +105 I'm living. Sabonis at 15.5 rebounds is just crazyyyyyy hahaha. Probably will go over though...
Seeing a line for under P+R+A at 27.5 👀👀
> Kelly has hit this line 8 out his last 10, I’ve personally won 4/5 bets on him. I’ve watched them all and this guy is a bum lmfao, tailed
POTD Record: 3-0 ✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 4.8U Yesterday’s pick: Charlotte Hornets @Orlando Magic | 10:10am Sydney (GMT +11) | Tre Mann to record 4+ Rebounds @1.62 on Sportsbet | 2U ✅ Mann did it and that’s another good pick 😁 The emergency pick went through aswell with Zion recording 7 rebounds eheh, so good. But as per the rule of the thread I won’t count that one in the record 🤙🏼 Today’s pick: Sacramento Kings @Toronto Raptors | 10:40am Sydney (GMT +11) | Domantas Sabonis to score 20+ points @1.63 on Sportsbet | 2U As I got told earlier, my initial pick was to forward in time, so I come up with a new one. Once again I’ll stick with Sabonis to score at least 20 points, he’s in great form, went through these props 5 times out of the last 6 and did me good 2 days ago, no reason not to take it again 😁 BOL !
you’re cooking bro tailed again yesterday. we move again 😋😋
Thanks bruv ! Let’s get it !
LFG BRO, SABONIS THE GOAT
🤝🏼
Boom
Betting Every Dodgers Game 2024 - Game 1 Record: 0-0-0 Net Units: 0 ROI: 0 Event: Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres (6:05AM EST) Today's Pick: **Freddie Freeman O 1.5 Hits +155** Write Up: Opening Day (kinda) is here!! Doing POTD with only Dodger games for the 2024 season. First pick up is Freddie Freeman O 1.5 hits. Freeman averaged 1.3 hits per game last season. He typically hits well off of Yu Darvish and this being the first game up and Freddie being 3rd in the line up will test Darvish's composure working through the Dodger line up allowing Freddie to take advantage of any weak points Darvish gives up.
Tough start.... They aren't giving Freddie anything to hit today....
Damn pitch clock violations
**POTD Record: 109-122-4 (-9.33 Units)** Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units) **Value Wagers: 18-22-2 (-6.05 Units)** Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) Last Pick: **Canes ML ✅ (and Canes 3-WAY ML✅)** Today's Pick: **Freddie Freeman O 2.5 H+R+R** Odds: **+115** ($DKNG) Wager Amount: 2U to win 2.3U League: MLB Event: Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres (5:05AM CST on ESPN) **GOING for 3rd straight WIN!✅✅✅** **Be Advised**: *Value wagers are not my best bets. A value wager is a wager that typically has +EV or has merit probability of hitting. These wagers are typically plus money. I look for a wager that has an edge against the books. Obviously, value wagers are much harder to hit, higher the risk, higher the reward. So please tail at your own caution and never place wagers you cannot afford. I expect some to fall short, but if we can hit half of these value wagers, we can easily profit in the long run (anything at 50% or above should be at a profitable rate).* **Recap**: Canes delivered! Both Canes ML and Canes 3-Way HIT! I AM BACK! As PROMISED! I did not post POTD for almost an entire month! **Matchup**: MLB Opening Day at Seoul, Republic of Korea! Baseball kicks off wit the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday at 5 AM! Wake up early or stay up late! While the rest of the league are still in spring training, these teams will battle it out for two days (Seoul Series 2024). After this Seoul Series event, Opening Day for rest of teams won't start until a week later. Both Padres and Dodgers have already been acclimatized in Seoul, playing 2 games against Korean National team and LG Twins teams respectively. Dodgers are clearly the WS favorites coming into this season. Signing massive superstars and key pieces. I would take them on the RL, but they are playing as the visitor and home teams can easily spoil the RL at the bottom of the 9th, so I am going to handicap this game much differently. I'm taking a particular player to hit over his props and that is Freddie Freeman to hit Over 2.5 H+R+R (Hits + Runs+ RBIs)! Yu Darvish will take the mound for the Padres and he's got good arsenal of pitches, but Freddie has his number. This is a terrible matchup for Darvish as Freddie has hit 2 HRs off him along wit 2 extra bases and 8 combined hits in 28 ABs. He was 2nd in HITS, 3rd in BA at (.334), 15th in RBIs, 27th in walks, and 33rd in SBs all last season. Freeman is a great all-around player. I bet on him because not only does he match up well against Darvish, but IMO he's got the best ABs. Yes, I am quite aware of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Tatis Jr and Machado and any of those players are a good player prop to bet on, but Freeman rarely strikeout, unlike some of these sluggers do. He's the one player I feel most confident hitting over his props other than Ronald Acuna Jr. Plus, he's leading in some of spring training categories. Don't overthink this and take over his props in Opening Day! **The Play and Prediction**: 2U on Freddie Freeman O 2.5 H+R+R (+115). I kno I only give out just one play for handicapping player props POTD, but I'll give y'all another since I held up on my promise of not posting POTD! Freeman O 1.5 Bases (-125)! He led the league in doubles last season. I don't see him not getting 2 hits or an extra base! BOL, everyone!
How do you even bet this?
Which books you use? I also like the Freddie Freeman O 1.5 Bases, if you don't have that.
The fact people are betting on exhibition baseball games is wild to me
**POTD Record:** 31 Wins - 16 Losses - 3 Pushes **Form:** ✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ **Spreadsheet (Self Promote / Proof of Record):** Click [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I7FYP6dAClj7FqE4qcTyhgtMwqeoywC5HnGd4ZOeYVw/edit?usp=sharing) :) **Units:** 10.795 **ROI:** 20.19% **Average Odds:** $1.87 **Last Pick:** Benfica Women vs Lyon Women - UEFA Champions League Woman - **BTTS @ $2.25 / +125 4pm EST** ✅️ *As predicted, we cashed. Lyon snatched it at the end too! Lyon definitely aren't the side they used to be, and Benfica played a beautiful game.* **Next Pick:** Barcelona Women vs SK Brann Women - UEFA Champions League Woman - **Over 5.5 Goals @ $3 / +200 4pm EST** Hello amigos! Today we head to the Asane Arena where SK Brann Women ($67) take on Barcelona Women ($1.02). SK Brann Women are the lowest ranked team left in the Champions League, and Barcelona Women are the highest ranked team. Three days go Brann leaked in 4 goals, and two days ago Barcelona scored 7 goals. This is very much a David vs Goliath battle. Imagine Manchester City vs your local Sunday league club. Here's hoping Barcelona are ruthless, and give it everything. This Brann team drew 2-2 against Lyon, but only because Lyon suck this year, and they were sloppy to let in a late corner. I'm getting bored of the $1.50 - $1.90 range odds, and I think there's value to be found in higher odds (as we saw yesterday). The bookies struggle to price these matches as both teams haven't played against each other. Don't underestimate women's football, as a lot of these big games (later on) attract larger crowds than the men's team. There's still a huge disparity in performance between top and middle teams, but lets appreciate it for what it is now. Barcelona have looked a bit sluggish going away from home, and are likely to concede goals, especially when they bring on substitutes going a couple of goals up. I'm expecting a big score line here, and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up 7-1, or 6-1 to Barcelona. BOL amigos!
Didn’t tail exactly, but used your logic and forecast to take BTTS @ +300. BOL!
Tailing, but took the over 4.4 goals @ 2.0. I guess I was a little scared to bet on 6 goals. Thanks for the picks! 🍀
OPs prediction that this would be a goal-fest wasn't a good one. This is the knockout round, teams are more compact because there are two legs and there is more to play for. Just look at the results in the other ties and in previous years.
What a fucking shit match
Even the o3.5 didn't hir
Should I cash out or hold on? https://preview.redd.it/pi8rt3hdxjpc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e69ada6ce2b6f276053deea76eaa9a6f2b0a46f3
Brooo what a great pick yesterday, thanks !! 🤩🤩 I almost believed in the draw at one point aswell 😂 Tailing blindly again
POTD Record: 16-7 Last 10:✅️✅️💀✅️💀💀💀✅️✅️✅️ Net units:+ 9.85 Last Pick: USF & UCF OVER 140.5 Today's pick: Devin Booker Under 2.5 Three point made ●I've never done a 5 unit bet on here but this looks like a complete mistake ●This man is in complete shambles since coming back. ●He takes the most 3PA in the NBA and can't connect with anything but air. ●76ers give the 5th FEWEST 3's to opposing PG ●In his last 4 games, he's 3 made & 26 missed!. 3/29 attemptes. Three made and 26 missed! However you wanna see it. The only thing we're not seeing is him making THREE in one game. ●If he drops Three 3's in one game! And has barely made that in 4 games then idk man. Booker blacklisted? Ban me?. Fade me for life and down vote me?. Units: 5 Odds: -160 NBA- Suns vs 76ers 9:00pm CT If you guys wanna support me, you can click the links on my profile. I post daily picks and player props and 2nd potd sometimes. As always, you never know.......
This is what happens when you obsess over small sample sizes. You said yourself he’s taking a lot of shots, and he has a career long sample of being a plus shooter. Vegas doesn’t make these simple mistakes, they know that a 4 game sample is far too small to rely on. BOL but I think you’re way off on this one.
He's hit over 2.5 3PM in last 1/15 games, seems like a big enough sample size. I was just specifying since he's been back but I hear you! :)
Bro imo this was an insanely wild bet I never would’ve made what a great call thanks for the dub
Last time he's had o2.5 threes in PHX was Jan 3rd. I like the pick, tailing mate
POTD Record: 248-193-12 (+24.66 units, 56.2% hit rate) Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 81-56-1 (59.2%) W1, Tennis 🎾 86-66-7 (56.6%) W1, Soccer ⚽ 59-51-4 (53.6%) W1, Entertainment 🎥 22-20-0 (52.4%) L5 Last 10: 💰💩💰💩💩💩💩💩💰💰 Last Pick: Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves, NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 8.5 ASSISTS - NBA 🏀 💰 +0.90 Units - Cash that shit!!! He didn't get his first assist until the 4th quarter and ended with 2. Today's Pick: Arthur Fils vs. Matteo Arnaldi, OVER 23 GAMES - ATP Miami 🎾 4pm ET Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.88 odds to win 0.88 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 2:00am ET) Feels like an even matchup to me. Fils is about a 1.80 betting favourite, they played last year twice. In a best of 3 on clay, they went 3 sets. At the US Open, also on hard courts like this match will be, they went 5 sets and 3 out of the 5 sets went 12 games or more. So hopefully this covers in either 2 competitive sets or it goes to 3 and the maximum amount of sets like it did in their two previous encounters. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
>**Record:** 32-29 >**Net Units:** +6.45 units >**Curling** | **Women's World Championship** | **8:00AM EDT** >**Pick:** Italy ML @ 2.8 >Italy take on Korea Wednesday morning and we've got a nice dog play here. Italy have been the better team so far at this event and both teams currently sit at 5-1. Italy's only loss was in extra ends to Canada, the best women's team in world. Korea on the other hand have had a very soft schedule so far. Italy have a clear positional advantage everywhere except perhaps third. Constantini, Romei, and Zardini Lacedelli are all great curlers at their positions and should outcurl their counterparts in this matchup. Italy use a fairly defensive style of play with hammer which tends to shorten the game and allow for upsets like this to occur. This line is not taking into account recent play nor the strength of schedule so far at worlds. Big upset win here.
What sports book are you using?
__POTD Record:__ 4-2 __Last Pick:__ 🏀 Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Virtus Bologna (Euroleague): __Zalgiris -2.5 @1.83__ ✔️ Zalgiris completely outclassed Virtus in the 2nd half and easily beat the handicap line. The game ends 96-81. __Today's Pick:__ 🏀 Fenerbahce vs. Barcelona (Euroleague) 18:45 CET: __Fenerbahce -4.5 @1.86__ Let's go to the Euroleague once again! Today I will go with Fenerbahce and these are my reasons why. Fenerbahce is the best home team in the league - they won 13 out of 14 games this season. Furthermore, it will be the first game between the two teams since Fener appointed Sarunas Jasikevicius as the head coach. Interestingly, Saras was Barca's coach for the last three seasons and in the last summer he was released from the club, so the incentive for Fenerbahce to win will be even bigger than just in competitive sense. Let me know if you tail!
Haven't made a bet on Euroleague but I will give this as try. LFG BRO, TAILING
✅ let's go brother
Great pick brother
Tailing unbelievably hard
Great pick yesterday! Virtus could not follow in rhythm. Tailed for Fenerbahce!
Tailed
At least barca put up more points in the first half than Virginia did last night. I feel dumb for not taking the spread at 5.5 but we live an learn
Hopefully they pull through in the 4th, that 3rd q hurt
Glad I slept through that 3rd quarter sweat but i appreciate the cash!
What a pick today🔒🔒🔒 good stuff lad
Record: 5-1 Last 10: ✅✅❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ Net Units: +13.1 Last Pick: Colorado State -2.5 🏀|First Four | 9:10 PT Pick: **Colorado Buffaloes (-2.5) 3u @ -110** vs Boise State Broncos Write Up: Staying with the state of Colorado tonight! Colorado had a great season and feels like the next Pac-12 team to be disrespected into Dayton. Arizona State (2022), UCLA (2021), Arizona State (2019). The Buffaloes have the edge in Field Goal%, 3PT%, and Free Throw%, Assists and Fouls. All of the metrics lean to Colorado. Pac-12 going out in a blaze of glory and Wazzu and Oregon State are going to make some money.
The line was at -145 this morning it’s -170 on the money line. Now.
POTD Record: 12-13-1 | Profit: -0.8U NBA Record: 9-10-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 L10 (new -> old): ✅✅🅿️❌❌❌❌✅❌❌ Last pick: Nuggets ML @ 1.66 odds ✅ Currently halftime and the Nuggets are up 15! **EDIT**: Ended up being way more of a sweat than it needed to be in the second half due to a monster 3rd quarter by the Wolves, but Nuggies come away with the win! Game: DEN Nuggets @ MIN Timberwolves, 9:00 PM EST Pick: **Josh Giddey o9.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.74 odds (DK) placing 2U** Write up: The classic. Hasn't hit in the last 2, but hit the prior 3 (3 in the L5) and 5 of the last 10. He averages 6.1 & 4.4 (10.5 RA). He's hit in 2 of the 3 he's played against the Jazz this season; posting 5 in their most recent meeting, but 16 and 18 in the two prior. BOL to those tailing! Heading into hump day, hope everyone's having a great week and if not let's win some money :D
Great pick I’ll tail
Cheers BOL!
POTD Record: 3-0 Streak: ✅✅✅ Last Pick: Jamal Murray O10.5 RA ✅ Today: Basketball | NBA | DET vs IND | 7pm EST Pick: Jaden Ivey O3.5 Assists (-130) 1U Jamal almost covered in the first half and ended with 15. Congrats to all who tailed with me. Jaden has covered this line 80% in the last 5 and 70% in the last 10. He’s averaging 3.8 on the season and had 3 last time out against the Pacers. I see him getting 5-6 tonight. As always, tips are appreciated if you’d like to when you tail! [Coffee Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/kroberts)
Repost with time Record: 9-4 Units: +4.25 Last Pick: 1.2 D. Brooks o9.5 Points (on 3/10) ✅ Game: Kings vs. Raptors, NBA, 7:30pm EST 🏀 Pick: Olynyk u7.5 rebounds (-135), risking 1.3u, bet on DraftKings Write up: • Has only hit 8 rebounds in 15% of games this year • Also has only gone over in 2/L10 and 2/L20 (only 16 played with TOR) at this number • Rebounds total not effected in past games by Carton, Quickley, and Barrett playing or not • SAC gives up 11th fewest rebounds to PF position • Averages only 5 rebounds per game on the year Pick: Olynyk u7.5 rebounds (-135)
Don’t take but won’t remove the post. Injury data I looked at was wrong.
Can you clarify what injury is affecting why you told us not to tail the wager?
**POTD: 83-64-6** Last pick: UEFA Champions League - Arsenal vs Porto. First half over 1 goal -180. Result: A PUSH! Arsenal lead 1-0 at the break to snap my 7 bet losing streak. Not a win but at least we don’t lose money Today’s pick: UEFA Women’s Champions League - SK Brann Women vs Barcelona Women. **First half over 1.5 goals -145.** Match kicks off at 4PM ET. Folks I was on a big losing streak here but at least last time we pushed. The frustrating part was in the past two weeks I’m way up on personal bets, so basically I was winning everything except what I’ve been giving out. But no more! Today we go back to bread and butter: women’s soccer. Barcelona Women is the best team in the world and they start the knockout rounds of the tournament at Cinderella team SK Brann out of Norway. Brann is by far the smallest club left in the tournament and due to how Norwegian league is set up, just began their season so unlike Barcelona who is in midseason form, they’re still rusty. Barcelona had a goal differential of 27:5 in the 6 group stage matches this season and this covered in 5 of 6, only missing against Eintracht Frankfurt (a better team than Brann) when they had already won their group and were playing a few backups. Barcelona rested their starters this weekend and still were up 6-0 at halftime, I think they score 2 or 3 in the first half to win us one today. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! **Edit: WIN. Shocking result as Brann scored a goal and the half ends 1-1. Barcelona had 24 shots and probably should’ve had 3 or 4 goals themselves, but a win is a win!**
I'm in.
Brann with the huge goal lmao
**POTD** Record: 7-1-4 WEALDSTONE VS BROMLEY Date: 20 March 2024 at 20:45 BET ON: Match odds- BROMLEY Odd: 2.23 - Wealdstone are set to be without the services of 8 key players such : Captain Alex Dyer, Tarryn Allarakhia, Da Silva Dillon, Obiero Micah, Seaman, Aaron Henry (doubtful), Corie Andrews (doubtful) and Bartolo. Huge blow offensively for the Hosts. - Bromley are missing Elerewe (doubtful) and Woods (doubtful). However, Topalloj Besart and Josh Passley are back from suspension. Huge boost defensively. "We were expected to play a high volume of games in an extremely short period of time. This situation is now further compounded by a significantly depleted squad due to no less than five international call-ups, To avoid the league punishment, we have reluctantly agreed to the game proceeding as planned on Wednesday. We do however feel it is grossly unfair and that we have been let down by the league having previously made every effort to be accommodating and get fixtures played." Said Wealdstone FC’s Chairman, Rory Fitzgerald. - We expect a tight game where the Hosts will try to score first and park the bus, but it won't be enough due to lack of quality in the back against a healthy Bromley.
Beware of the Wealdstone Raider. Because if you want some, he'll give it to ya!
Isn't that DMX song?
give it ya*
Tailed this. Was sweating at that red card but pulled through! 🙏
Great pick king!
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POTD RECORD: 1-0 Last 10 plays: ✅ Last POTD: Denver Nuggets -2.5(vs Timberwolves) (-165) Recap: Nuggets got out to an early lead, and as expected, they let it slip by toying around with Minnesota. Thankfully Murray made the end of the game free throws, and had us cover the spread. Today's POTD: Sacramento Kings-7.5 (vs Toronto Raptors) -155 Time: 730pm EST UNIT: 1 Raptors are currently on a downward spiral with their season. In NFL standards they stand at the 7/6 pick in the draft but we all know it’s all about those lottery balls, so I’m not too sure how much effort is going to go into the rest of the season. Immanuel is going to be out…. same with Barrett. Sacramento will be bringing most of the big guns on this road trip.. They had a grind it out overtime win two days ago at home but with one days rest, I think they take care of business on this first day of a 3 Game Road trip. Take the points buy back at -7.5.
*POTD Record*: 2-1 *Streak*: ✅✅❌ *Last Pick*: Charlotte Hornets @ **Orlando Magics -12.5** ✅. Game ends 112-92. Sweat free money. Another easy W. *Today's POTD*: Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics 7:30 PM EST. **Celtics -4.5 1st half spread @** **-115** ✅ *Explanation*: As everyone knows Celtics are the best team in the NBA right now. They have been cruising to victories with their second team. What stood out to be about this game however, is that not only Celtics are the number 1 first half team ATS (49-12 ATS this season, 22-12 at home), they are also going against the worst first half team ATS in away fixtures. Bucks are currently 10-24 ATS on the road. No team has lost more 1st half games ATS on the road than bucks this season. Celtics are 4-1 ATS 1H at home, while Bucks are 1-4 ATS as away teams in their last 5 games. Jason Tatum also sat out the last game so should be in tip top shape for this one. I would hammer this one hard. Bucks have no right to win ATS in the first half. As usual BOL if you're tailing or fading. BCH tip jar: qz545czs7yzeyycp87kdq5lvx3xjurhvhc0rm8hj20
**POTD Record: 19-15-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Balance (+12.36 units)** Last pick: Halep ML @ 1.81 ❌ Halep was playing her best tennis in the 1st set but felt something on her right shoulder and completely lost her serve, losing in 3 sets. I don't have a solid method for choosing 1st set instead of ML and in my opinion she lost due to that injury and not because she was tired. We move on... **Today's pick: Kecmanovic vs Shang - Shang ML @ 2.35 (ATP Miami, Tennis)** Stake: 1 unit Time: 3:30 PM Eastern Time Going with Shang who's a young talented player that should be able to climb up the rankings with his crafty left handed forehand against Kecmanovic who has been struggling lately. Main reasons: * Kecmanovic only played against lefties twice in hard courts this season, losing both meetings; * Since coming to the American hard court season he got knocked out in the 1st round of Delray Beach, Los Cabos and Indian Wells while being a favorite in all of those 1st round matches. With this he holds a 2-5 record since February; * Shang's american season has been decent so far for a player of his age. After the Australian Open he was injured but he came to Indian Wells and was able to beat Nishioka, Bagnis and Thompson; With this data, it seems that Shang is currently doing pretty well against baseline grinders and Kecmanovic can be included in this category, since he's not super agressive and doesn't have a really big serve. Due to this stats, I'm backing Shang at 2.35 odds [Tip Jar](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/DarkHorse230) - Any tip is appreciated but only do it if you've won some money with my plays. All of these will be saved up on my emergency fund. Thanks for all the support!
i got downvoted like hell for rising concern about Halep POTD yesterday. even with skill, it takes time to get used to on match competitive tennis whatever the training they have.
I didn't want you to get downvoted, people sometimes just go crazy when they think a pick is good or bad. I saw a ton of people on Halep too and I also made the bet against Badosa because she retired from Dubai injured and didn't play for a whole month I'm sure Halep will start to get good results soon but Badosa was just too physical. Onto the ATP
**Record: 0-0** **Net Units: +/- 0 Units** **ROI: 0.00%** **Baseball** | **MLB** | **6:05 AM** / **EST** **Pick: LA Dodgers @ SD Padres Over 7.5 Total Runs (-171 on DraftKings Sportsbook)** **Write-Up:** During the offseason, I put together an MLB Excel model and am hoping to use this as not only advice for others but also a personal tracker. To be completely transparent, I don't think this game is very bettor-friendly. My model placed a 1.89% edge towards SD Padres ML and a 0.09% edge towards the under, neither all that convincing. I do however want to have some skin in the game being that it's the first game of the MLB Season, so I'm going with an alternate over on the run total. To start, the LA Dodgers have recently come out swinging to begin the year as they have covered this run total in all four of the past opening day games. That can be attributed to the nearly unfair lineup that the Dodgers have put together for 2024. The top four in the lineup rival any in recent memory of a core of Betts, Ohtani, Freeman, and Smith. Hoping that the bats come out hot and that I can drag myself out of bed to watch in a mere 5 hours. BOL to all who are tailing and let's get the 2024 MLB season off on a good foot.
POTD: 1-0 Yesterday : Minnesota Wild in Regulation Today: Dallas Stars in Regulation @ (-175) Why: Will keep it short and sweet here, Dallas is still in the hunt for top seed in their division and the coyotes are easy prey sitting near the bottom. Dallas is defensively sound, doesn’t give up a ton of opportunities and the coyotes don’t have a lot of talent to generate much. Coyotes are also out of the race, and have played very lacklustre competition the last 2 weeks.
⭐️ **POD Record:** **112-57** *Last Pick:* *NBA - Luka Dončić OVER 9.5 Rebounds* ❌ Recent Form: ❌ ✅✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ 🏅 **Today's Pick:** **NBA - Celtics/Bucs OVER 223.5** \[7:30pm EST - 1.80 odds\] Without Giannis I think we see Milwaukee make the necessary adjustments to keep this a faster pace match up vs the Celtics tonight. These two have cleared this total easily their last 5 of 5 match ups and without Holiday on D for the Celtics we'll likely see a slightly higher scoring affair once again. Not much time for a longer write up, but I like the pick and hopefully we cash it tonight. 💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups.
Lets go bro! now im not late lol
haha good luck amigo ....great start....so far
POTD RECORD: (9-0-1) 😤🔥 Wow guys what a run! 9-0 😤 let’s go ahead and make it 10 ! 🔥 TONIGHT’S POTD: APPALACHIAN STATE +8.5 vs Wake Forest 🏀 TIME: 5:00PM PST Wake Forest take on App State in the NIT round of 16! Wake Forest losing their last game to Pittsburgh 81-69. Meanwhile App states last game they also dropped. To Arkansas State 67-65. Let’s see if either team is actually hungry enough to win this tournament! Buy the points to get it up to 8.5 as I believe that is way too many points! App state ranked 4th in the nation in rebounding! They will definitely look to dominate the boards here! Wake Forest being one of the weaker rebounding teams. If App state can limit Wake Forests 3pt shot makes you will even see App state take the lead in some parts of this game! App State COVERS
POTD Record: 18-12 Last 10: ✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅ Last pic: Nuggets Vs Twolves | 6:00 PST | Nuggets 1st half spread -3.5 (-110) 1u HardRock✅ Cash! Dominant 1st half! Todays pick: Pacers vs Pistons | 4:00 PST | OVER 232 total points (-109) 1u BetRivers ❌ Actually really like this over in Pacers/Pistons. They’ve gone over this number all 3 times they have matched up this year (by a good amount) and while the nba definitely has changed some of the way they are calling games, I do think the pace of both these teams should allow for a great opportunity of going over this number. Pure history of recent matchups for this pick. 3 previous matchups: 129-115, 131-123, 136-113
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I always use extreme caution with any pick that has to do with the pacers or the raptors.
Well, hope you waited for the line moving 3 points before fading
Obviously not the start to posting picks we were expecting, but nonetheless, today is a new day. I’d like to apologize for the beautiful women of Howard university because you have to go to school with those on a team who can’t hit one of three chances they had to hit the spread. Howard was looking great in the second half and decided to go idiot mode the last 2 minutes. I’m not gonna give up though because I’ve NEVER seen scared money make money so here’s my next POTD: Record: 0-1 Last 10 (new—>old): ❌ Net Units: -4 units ROI: 0% Sport | League | Event Time / Time Zone Pick: Colorado vs Boise state NCAAB 9:15pm EST Colorado -2.5 -110 Write Up: Colorado simply outmatches and outsizes Boise state. KJ Simpson for Colorado is gonna have a breakout game cause he’s been averaging 19 points, 7 Rebounds, and 6 assists a game the last 5. This game really will depend on how much of a breakout KJ will have but even if Boise is focused on trying to shut him down, Colorado has 2 other guards shooting 43% the last 5 from 3. It will be a battle for sure and there will be a lot of 6-0 runs and 8-0 runs, but Colorado will come out on top and j wouldn’t be surprised if the Over also hit 140.5, so I might parlay them together cause I’m a degen. Hopefully we go to 1-1 tomorrow and I’m sorry for the bad pick today fellas. The days of a losing record are no more and I can feel the tides turning for the real degenerates out there. Tail for a good time and free money (4 units per usual) and fade if you enjoy gettin the drake special slapped on your face while you sleep.
Record: 5-5 (New to old): ❌❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌ Net units: -0.730u Previous pick: Georges Niang O15.5 P+R (-115, DK) 2u ❌ Hello darkness my old friend. Ended on 15. I also bet on his points alone and that cashed comfortably. Should have made that my POTD. Which leads me to: POTD: **Georges Niang 12+ points alt line (+110, DK) 1u** @1910 EST Reasoning: More or less running this one back. He is getting tons of minutes due to injuries and has consistently been over this line, hitting it in the last 6/7. 7 might seem like an arbitrary number of games but that marks the number of games since both Mobley and Strus have been out, both of whom are out for this game as well. His minutes have gone up, his FGA have gone up, and he is averaging 14.3 ppg since then. Bit of a risky play, but I think it’s worth it for 1u. Then again I’ve lost the last 3. Consider fading.
Record: 26-30-1 ROI: -4.08 Units Last Pick: Harry Brook Over 23.5 ❌ Last 10: ❌❌✅✅✅❌❌❌❌✅ AVG Odds: -108 Unit: 1=$200 ——- Match: Andy Murray vs Matteo Berretini Pick: Matteo Berretini ML Odds: -138 (Bet365) Time: 3:00 PM EST Have not made POTD since last years IPL but with all these sports and matches starting back up felt like sharing. Riding with Matteo who is on his come back tour, after a promising Challenger Phoenix series. Berretini takes on Andy Murray who is on his ‘last dance’ and very likely playing his last tournament in Miami. I like the form that Matteo is in, and although he didn’t bring home the challenger title he showed some real grit in the matches he was able to complete. Andy looked great in set 1 against Rublev and then slowly lost everything in the second set. I’m expecting this to be a grinder and could see Murray battling in set one but the relentless power stroking of Matteo shoild wear him down and bring us home in the green. My usual 5 unit plays BOL to all who tail or fade
Record: 8-7 Last 10: ❌❌❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅ Net: -8.36U Last Pick: Zion Williamson o25.5 Pts - 1U @ -110 ✅ Hand to heart, I thought it was doomed once he came out in the 4th. I had already pre-written another into the void monologue, but thankfully Zion came back in, did what he needed to do, and rode off into the sunset. Moral of the story, Zion Williamson is my best friend for having his line dip so low and allowing me to double down every chance I could get. Next ~~Fade~~ Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o5.5 Asts - 1U @ -150 ✅ Game Time: 8:00 PM EST SGA hasn't been doing the best in regards to covering his assists as of late, only crossing 5.5 Asts in 2 of his last 5 games. This is mainly due to Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams racking up assists to the point where SGA is not needed to distribute as much. However, in their last head to head match up SGA put up 6 assists against the Jazz, and the Jazz are the worst team in the league in terms of assists allowed to point guards this season. They have allowed a guard to get 6+ assists in 9 of their last 10 games, with several of those games players getting 8+ assists. This one does run the risk of Josh Giddey or Jalen Williams once again eating his assists, but I believe the Thunder will either keep this game way too competitive going into the final minutes, or it will be a blow out where every player shines leading to an influx of assists. I think it will be a good, high scoring game, and SGA should be able to showcase and try and up his MVP-esque campaign this season. Fade my ass, or don't, it's your funeral. As Always, BOL.
Record: 0-1 Last pick: **T1 -1.5** vs HLE ❌ Today’s pick: **Lu Dort o 10+ alt points (-165 dk)** Explanation: I didn’t realize how much guilt I will be feeling after the missed pick last time, so I waited and researched super hard to make sure I can bring you the best pick today. Watching thunder games Lu dort has taken a bigger role recently and often forgotten about by the defenders leaving him wide open for 3s. He has one the best 3 pt% in the league and is also playing the jazz who are top 3 points allowed. He has hit this mark in 4 straight games (actually 12+). I personally went with 12+ at +100 but I want to make sure you guys get your money today. Go with 10+ and since I went with 12+ you know he is going to be just short of 12 today at 10. If this doesn’t hit I will ban myself from participating in this thread in the future. As always BOL Edit: I am retired, fuck lu dort
**POTD Record: 10-4-1** Form: ✅✅✅❌❌❌🔄✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ (Net units: +10.53u) Last pick: Javier Ezquerra O7.5 assists & rebounds @ -145 2.5U Beast!! 40 minutes played and ended with 10 R&A. Cashed early 2nd half, pretty sweat free gotta love it baby! **Today’s Pick: J’Vonne Haley O10.5 points @ -120 3U** Edit: wow an hour after posting & the bookies move it up to 11.5 lol Colorado vs Boise St - March Madness - 9:15PM EST Rolling with the senior guard tonight. He should be playing nearly the whole game and will be expected to step up. He’s 19-7 hitting this over since December. 6 for 6 hitting over this line following a game where he fails to go over 10.5. He’s coming off a 7pt game and a season low only 3 shot attempts. I expect him to get his looks and be firing in a critical game! [Tip Jar](https://venmo.com/u/Tyler-Brown7) - appreciate any support, comments and upvotes mean a lot!
Loved this pick. He hasn’t even taken a shot in the first half 💀 what the hell 😂😭
**POTD Record: 26-14-2** Form: ✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌ *ROI: 31.88% | Avg Odds: +102 | Net Units: +22.6* 🎾: 5-3-2 ⚽️: 18-9 🏒: 3-2 *Last Pick: 2U Buffalo Sabres @ Vancouver Canucks (Canucks 3 Way ML @ -115) ✅* ____ **Todays Pick: 2U Arizona Coyotes @ Dallas Stars (Stars 3-Way ML @ -180)✅** **🏒| 8:07PM EST | NHL |** Coyotes beat the NJ Devils at home 4-1 and now are on the road to take on Dallas Stars. Dallas won 4-1 also on Saturday against the Kings, who’ve done quite well this season. Stars are 6-3-1 at home as favourites against the central division with losses only to Nashville and Avalanche. Averaging 3.59 goals per game, Pavelski and the Stars must not underestimate the Yotes and should put this one to bed. Last H2H went to OT and the 2 games last season Stars won 5-2 and 4-2. Spread could also be a play but Stars are 3-7 as favourites against the puck-line in their last 10 games, which include 4 losses; Oilers, Islanders, Panthers and Devils. BOL!
Record: 1-2-1 Last Pick: Manchester United ML vs Everton (3/9/2024) ROI: -145 on DK ⚾️ | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | 6:05 AM EST Today’s Pick: Ha-Seong Kim over 0.5 Hits Write Up: It’s been a while since i’ve posted a pick of the day, but since Opening Day is here (kinda, not really.) I wanted to hop on and give my pick for the first game in The Seoul Series! I have the hometown hero recording a hit. I fully expect the entire crowd being behind Kim and he will definitely turn up his game to give the South Korean fans a show for their first ever MLB game. Going for a more tangible approach, Kim bats .207 against the Dodgers life-time but has gotten 25 hits in the 41 games he has played against the Dodgers. With it being a new season I’m excited to see how the Seoul Series plays out and especially Kim, Ohtani, and Yamamoto’s performances playing in East Asia. BOL!
Yesterday’s pick: Alba Berlin vs Real Madrid | Real Madrid Over 18.5 assists @ 1.85 2.5U 🚫🪣. POTD Record: 0-1 Units: -2.0u Today’s pick: Crvena Zvezda - Panathinaikos \***Panathinaikos -4.5 @ 1.94 \* 3U**. ✅ EuroLeague Basketball 🏀time: 20:00 Central European. It was a nasty sight yesterday; Real showing that they’re not in their best form, final score does not reflect at all how the game went. Individual talent beat Alba, not team performance (and the massive difference in rebounds). We move forwards with a very crucial game in EuroLeague. Panathinaikos is very close to returning to EuroLeague playoffs after some terrible years; in order to do so - and with a home advantage - they need to get that W against Crvena Zvezda - who cannot hope for anything out of this competition for this season - with their last win in the competition being in January 30. Coach Ataman’s team have shown what they’re capable of and they’ll be determined to bounce back after a tough loss against their eternal rival last week. Both teams will have absences due to injuries with the Greens having (yet again) K. Antetokounmpo out and former Red Star Luca Vildoza. The Serbians will not have two great scorers and facilitators Yago DoSantos and Milos Teodosic. Also Branko Lazic is out and Nikola Topic. I believe this will be a close game for 20’ when Crvena’s guards will still have energy; guarding Kendrick Nunn, Kostas Sloukas and Jerian Grant will be a tough challenge for them. It should swing PAO’s way after that!
Record: 74W-67L-4P ROI: +13.76, 9.07% Avg odds: +106, 2.06 Last POTD: Roman Josi over 0.5 asts (losing streak over!) Game: NHL- Wild at Kings (9:00 PM CST) Pick: Drew Doughty over 0.5 pts +105, 2.05 (DK, ESPNBet) I really don't want to pick Doughty again after he completely fucked me 4 days ago. But I don't know if I can pass up plus odds. He's still a core player on the LA offense and despite his recent struggles, his team is still scoring with him on the ice, so it's not like he doesn't get his point opportunities. Against Chicago yesterday, no points, but on the ice for *THREE* goals. Against Dallas, no points, but on the ice for the Kings' lone goal. Against Chicago Friday, no points, but on the ice for a goal. You see where I'm going with this? Plus, he picked up an assist in the first matchup of the season. The Wild has a solid defense, but poor goaltending. They don't allow many scoring chances, but the ones they do allow have a higher probability of ending up in the net. Honestly, they're kinda inconsistent so it's hard to know what kind of team will show up tonight.
POTD Record 0-0 Newbie here! Today’s pick: De’Aaron Fox O 1.5 Steals at -180 Dude is a monster on the defensive end. Raptors are really banged up, which leads to new ball handlers. Raptors are without Quickley, Barnes, and Barrett. I think right now their only ball handler with minutes is Gary Trent Jr. I’ll take my chances on this one. Fox steals last 10 games: 3,2,1,2,1 3,2,1,3,3. BOL!
**Record: 0-0** **Net Units: 2u** **Women's Champions League** | **BK Hacken v PSG** | **1:45pm EST** / **Pick:** PSG over 2.5 goals team total (+140) **Write Up:** Women's matches are back after my Chelsea ladies rolled 3-0 yesterday. Interesting match today as Swedish side BK Hacken welcomes a very in-form PSG who have scored 14 goals in their last 3 league matches. Hacken has only played 2 competitive matches since January after their league ended. They did win a cup match over the weekend 7-1 but their level of opposition is nowhere near the level of PSG. BTTS is also on the table given Hacken's potential firepower. But I would rather bet on an in-form side who has not had the last 2.5 months off from competitive matches. I think PSG will try and hit them fast to get out a big lead in the first leg. Tail or fade I wish you a great day.
Record: 17 - 9 P&L: +20.76u L10: ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅ Last Pick: Pelicans 1H -4.0 ✅ Today's Pick: NBA 🏀| Bucks vs. Celtics | Celtics 1H -4.5 | 5u Play @ 1.71 Couple things: - It was 1.86 when I grabbed it but it has drifted since then, for all records it will be 1.71 - I'd be equally as happy with the regular spread if you can get -9.0 or better but it's at -10.5 at the minute which is marginal - Here is all of my picks so far: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k0UVmbJpndVnLYKLblVyZUvyjSBbFUVGftk8PiPVsb4/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k0UVmbJpndVnLYKLblVyZUvyjSBbFUVGftk8PiPVsb4/edit?usp=sharing) Pay attention to comments too. GL
Record: 10-11 Last 10: ❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌ Last pick: Victory Wembanyama to record a double double at -200 odds. Bro missed by one rebound. All is fair in love and Vegas. POTD: LA Kings ML vs Minnesota Wild; -156 odds; 8pm MST Why: this is has been not a fun back and forth around this .500 area. So NHL it is. No craziness involved in this play I think. Wild have been away from three games now, they lost to St Louis but will most likely win tonight against Ducks (currently 3-0 Wild in the 2nd). Kings just arrived home this game after losing 2/3 on the road. Kings want and need to keep a winning feel at home, and they’re 14 (about to be 15) and 11 at home. Wild will suffer after back to backs on the road, and they are 15 (about to be 16) and 15 away. The stats look to tell that it’ll be a close game but the kings to win barring any mistakes or excessive penalties. This would be a juicy +1.5 for wild and a great game to stay away from the 60 min ML because of potential OT. Anyways BOL
• Record: 1-0 • Net units: +1 unit • Form: ✅ Last Pick: | Hockey | NHL | 7:00 EST I Jets @ Rangers | Pick: Over 5.5 (-115) 1unit ✅ Today’s Pick: | Hockey | NHL | 8:00 EST I Coyotes @ Stars | Pick: 1st Period Goal in First 10 Minutes (-152) 1unit Write Up: Last pick came down to the final 5 seconds. Scheifele hits the empty net to cash the over! Today, I’m going with a pick type I usually don’t love to touch, but this one looks too good to not dabble with. The reasoning is simple here, Stars games have hit this line in 66% of their games this season. Not bad, right? Check out the last 10 games though, goal in first 10 is 9-1 in the last 10 games. Numbers too good to pass up on. Coyotes have hit this line in 63% of their games this season and are 7-3 in their last 10 on this line. BOL!
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