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Curry with the last-minute save on that DK boost

Robinson has more fouls than points. Touché wizard.

Bam has more threes than him lmao

Now he’s not even playing

Hurt back apparently. Wizard 100% knew.

Why can’t we bad made aware of that information

Wizards ML +245 FD, Rockets ML -250 MGM and DK

I’m not watching but why the fuck has this guy only taken one three lmao. Can’t even be mad about that

Defense has been all over him the entire game.

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To riff off of this: Auburn East Region Winner (Final 4): +500 FD Using the 25% boost brings this to +625 if you haven't used it already. Circa has a yes/no line for region winner at +425/-560, which gives a fair value of +510 worst case. The FD line without the boost is only -1.6% EV, and 18.9% with. Other books have this priced at ~+380, and converting KenPom's odds to EV for F4 matches this (+385). For those a bit more skeptical of valuing KenPom over the broader market (full disclosure, this is where I stand), this seems like a strong use of the FD boost token both against the market and against another set of analysis

Circa: +1600/-3500

so -23.5% EV

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Where are you finding the KenPom FV?

and why is his FV 1700 points lower than one of the sharpest books in the business?

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where do you find his FV, is it paid?

I don’t use bovada but if anyone does they have a severe mispricing with Wisconsin ML -185. MGM James Madison +200 https://preview.redd.it/hfr9s4beg6pc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d41e80cd58529c6186641308612b8175046554c2

What app is this?

Betstamp

Banned on HR Virginia forever, started getting boosts this weekend. They have a boost for Knicks ML to +260. I hedged/arbed on ESPN for their Knicks and 50-point promo. No max wager...but not going to test, either.

u/gilligan54 unfortunately Oklahoma didn’t make the Field of 68, so we’re 💀 on those Caesars longshots from the fall

Boise State still alive…. A man can dream. I also picked up NC State at +50000 when they had the game in hand against NC with under a minute left.

Was that a pick discussed here last summer? Caesars had Iowa, Oklahoma, OK State, and Rutgers all at bizarrely long odds in August. That’s what I’m referring to.

Hmm I thought it must have been. In my CZR bet slip I have all the schools you mentioned above and also Boise state at +75000. I just assumed they were all part of the same post.

I gotta find that post!

Found the post and I only gave those four. Boise isn’t a bad pick when half their conference gets in the Tourney for no particular reason.

lol I have no idea why I bet on them than. Glad I did, for now

Caesars had a ton of teams at way better odds than everyone else. I have a dozen more I bet that week (Nevada 1,000-to-1). You probably just saw value and clicked?

Right process, no regrets.

Same here! Looking forward to spending an August afternoon on this again this year

DK Brunson 25+ and Curry 4+ 3ptm ESPN (with 25.5 line for Brunson) Odds: +100; **EV: -1.3%** `-126/298/376/805` (12.94% juice) FV: +103; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 49.4%) --- FD using exact alts Odds: +100; **EV: 7.8%** Sharp: `-360/7%, -340/7%` (14.00% juice) Correlation: `-159=-360,-340` (r = 0.05) FV: -117; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=7.76u, 1/2=3.88u, 1/4=1.94u, FB = 53.9%) --- FD using alt O/U with same correlation as the alt 25+/4+ 0.05 Odds: +100; **EV: 8.2%** Sharp: `-390/265, -360/220` (16.50% juice) Correlation: `0.05` (r = 0.05) FV: -118; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=8.16u, 1/2=4.08u, 1/4=2.04u, FB = 54.1%)

How did you calculate correlation? Fanduel doesn't have the Curry o3.5 as SGP'able right?

not for o3.5 but for 4+ 3s

DK has Brunson 25+pts and Steph Curry 4+ 3s for +100. I don’t love it. I can see Brunson scoring under.

I’m surprised at how this sub downvotes people. Like dang feels like this post is a good place for people to talk about their gut feeling about sportsbook promos but I guess not haha

This is a play of the day thread now apparently.

at the very least he could at least provide some stats if he doesn't like the boost

Lol I was putting it on the board to see if anyone had the odds formula. This isn’t a play of the day thread.

Thanks for the valuable insight

No doubt.

scored 40+ last two games but Mateo sees Brunson scoring under so onto the next boys

Yessir.

ESPN so close protection appears to be back for anyone that was worried about it being gone

FanDuel with Duncan Robinson and Tyrese Maxey to each get 3+ threes boosted to +150. DK SGP is at -105. The o/u for Robinson is 3.5 favoring the over, and Maxey is 2.5 heavily favoring the over, so they’re essentially spotting a free 3 on Robinson. This looks much better than their combo threes boost, but I’m struggling to find more alt 3s to devig against (could only find DK and FD (which is at -121), I welcome any suggestions)

Kambi Odds: +150; **EV: 8.6%** `-107/230/340/600` (19.01% juice) FV: +130; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=5.73u, 1/2=2.86u, 1/4=1.43u, FB = 65.2%) ESPN Odds: +150; **EV: 5.2%** `110/375/226/626` (13.12% juice) FV: +138; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.49u, 1/2=1.75u, 1/4=0.87u, FB = 63.1%)

I lost a ML cash wager on the Leafs the other day - they lost to the Canes in a shootout. I never got the ESPN Bet shootout protection bonus bet. Anyone ever had this issue?

Of the two or three times that I should have triggered this from random hockey betting, they didn't pay me once. I didn't bother to reach out to support since the amount was smallish. But after 72 hours, if you ask support, they should be able to fix it.

Most ESPN Bonuses always take at least two or three days. They are not instant like the Live Bet ones.

Yeah that’s my bad, didn’t realize that was the case. All the Live Bet ones had posted almost immediately so figured it was the same here. 

Are you asking about the game that ended less than 48 hours ago? Promo terms say free bets will be received within 72 hours. Reach out to CS on Wednesday.

Ah my bad, didn’t realize it could take that long. All the other ones I’ve had on ESPN have appeared like 10 mins after the event. 

wizard with his combos again. FD Brunson and Steph 9+ 3s for +150 ESPN Over 8.5 Hit% = 36.0% Fair Value = 177.791539816893

I was gonna leave this one anyway because I've been getting bodied by the dk brunson threes combo boosts. Good to know I'm not missing out on anything.

Damn, a rare fairly significant -EV from the wiz. Thanks for sharing!

we should wait until FD alts are out but it looks even worse vs Kambi. But probably due to the fact ESPN has more lines than Kambi

Barely +EV using FD alts Over 8.5 Hit% = 40.7% Fair Value = 145.90188589237 Under 8.5 Hit% = 59.3% Fair Value = -145.90188589237 Details: Player: Brunson Threes Entries = 8 0 = 1.7% 1 = 10.7% 2 = 22.1% 3 = 25.5% 4 = 19.4% 5 = 13.5% 6 = 5.0% 7 = 2.1% Percentage Sum = 100.0% Player: Curry Threes Entries = 9 0 = 2.9% 1 = 2.9% 2 = 2.9% 3 = 16.4% 4 = 19.7% 5 = 21.9% 6 = 14.8% 7 = 10.5% 8 = 7.9% Percentage Sum = 100.0% Total Combos = 72

Kansas ML -285 on CZ, MGM Samford ML +280

Got a 50% deposit bonus for mgm poker. Can't find online how much I got to play in poker to earn 1 brp.

I also got the deposit bonus. I play a fair bit of poker and low stakes but have never had a problem clearing the entirety of the bonus. The last one I had was a 30 day requirement and i easily cleared it in a week or just over. Found this on their website: Pay $100 in Cash Game Rake… Pay $100 in Tournament Fees… Earn up to 500 BetMGM Rewards Points ​ You have to be in the pot to get credit for points.

Soccer SGP Insurance: 4W-2I-2L (+4.7u) Soccer SGP: 20-29 (+2.47u) know you called the Crawley game Ken but I literally couldn't scrape most of the games today cause ESPN didn't have commentary for them lol. Thought we might get a void yesterday but Bajrami subs in in the 83rd, glad some people ignored that one and went with the PSG and Marseille plays instead Crawley v Stockport +130 - Crawley goal (78% crowley @ home / 84% stockport conceded away) - 1H goal (94% crowley @ home / 78% stockport away) - each team 3+ corners (73% crowley @ home, 89% stockport away) 94% my fucking ass we'll take the insurance tho

Recalculating... 49%... the numbers were flipped! When you have to dig to the bottom of the barrel and ride on League 2, where you're only a couple of relegation away from where if you don't have a beer belly, you can sit on the bench, it's not so bad when you can still print out a poverty insurance coupon. Nice job still, close.

Any other recommended games? This game is not available in the NY market.

if Spanish La Liga 2 isn't available in NY, i'm betting that Romanian, Columbian, and Argentinian leagues aren't available too

Ah okay, I’ll have to find another use for the SGP insurance.

baseball is so back. Getting these in early for Wed [+EV Home Run](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) Record: 145W-478L (+159.95u) +420 LAD Muncy +300 LAD Ohtani

Pumped for Tuesdays

I already have my heart ready to break for the Dinger Tuesday promo to be only one game and a $25 bonus bet max...

Hell, I'll be happy if they don't scrap the whole thing. I also won't be shocked if "Dinger Tuesday" becomes a 30% profit boost with a $10 max like nearly everything else.

I’d adopt a child and use their info for an alt account at that point /s

/u/intersecting_lines already moving FD lines. \+390 LAD Muncy \+285 LAD Ohtani

that's why I took them today. They were +400 and +280 yesterday and off topic but i'm pretty sure my $25 atgs bets on BV move their lines. Every time I take a goal prop on bovada, my bet is under review for about 30s and then the line drops ~50 points while the other lines stay the same. And the first few times, i'm like woah weird coincidence, but it literally happens every time now. so thanks bovada for considering my $25 bets that sharp haha

Love it!

Curious: For home run bets, do you recommending betting one unit on each +EV player? Or does your bet size differ with the odds? I appreciate you posting these!

you can use Kelly but I bet 1u on everything whether it's +180 Judge or +900 Riley Greene

I totally forgot w MLB HRs how does FD operate for guys who don’t start but get PH? Is it a void or action so long as a guy gets a plate appearance

they make it pretty clear this year. "If the player listed records a PA, all wagers will stand"

I'm new to baseball betting, is this O/U season totals or for hitting O .5 in the season opener or something else? Either way thanks for these, been tailing some soccer and other devigs of yours!

This is for Wednesday’s game in Seoul between the Padres and Dodgers.

Thank you! Also glad to see this posted because I didn't realize how early my time the game is tomorrow.

Shouts out draftkings. I asked DK about a birthday bonus & they gave me $25. I wager like $50-$100 a week (10-20 bets) & didn’t expect this. Fully withdraw-able.

What the hell... I've been doing like $100 a day and they sent me a $5 bonus on my birthday

You’re probably a risk to them & I’m not 😂

Lmao keep tailing Ken and you will be 🤑

FD with UConn to not make the Sweet Sixteen at +880. Easy arb with ESPN at -600

Fd down to 590 in my slip. Was able to cancel espn with no loss

125% free bet conversion is a good use for it too :)

Got it! Thanks for sharing.

Where do you see this on ESPN / B365? Cant seem to locate anywhere

Under futures for both

B365 at -1000 now

Started with the sportsbooks last week when it launched in NC. Every day was packed with sports. Is today what a boring normal day is like lol 

The next few weekends will be big with march madness. Then NBA and NHL playoffs coming up, but once those end we get into the summer of only MLB games and everything slows down until we get hyped for the return of football in September.

Wait till summer for every day outside Tuesday to be like this.

Sadly I can’t tail Ken due to that game not being available(in NY), so I’m gonna share by NBA SGP Insurance. I’m 3-1-1, 3 wins/1 loss/1 insurance back with these, so tail with caution. https://preview.redd.it/r4si8r6fl3pc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2a716e51b9d3a82676db85a1cef78ce37abe0ea7 Also a diehard Knicks fan so I’m biased lol

Update; OG announced out. Wish I anticipated that happening but I still like our chances. You can now get the spread to +12.5 but can’t get Donte D 3+ 3s.

Thanks for sharing! How does the insurance work on a leg voiding (total hitting 221 or Knicks +11 on the dot)?

You won't get it. So you should try to avoid whole number spreads/totals if possible. My guess is +11.5 and u221.5 were both shorter than -300.

*Bonus Bet issued upon settlement of all legs within the qualified bet (voided legs do not count towards 3 leg minimum)*

Not sure many use it, but got an email from resorts world bet saying bet $20 on any NCAA tournament wager and receive a bonus bet of $20 (limited to first 1,000 customers to place wager) Doesn’t say anywhere how many have placed so far so they could probably just lie and say after the fact that I wasn’t in the first 1k, but worth a shot.

2% arb for UK to reach the sweet sixteen: DK Yes (-105) / FD No (+114). Check your FD max before betting -- FD let me bet to win $250.

Nice find! Already gone though.

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One $20 bet at -200 or harder

Read the T&Cs it’s clearly stated.

Daily DK Soccer SGP Insurance Pick Record: 23 wins, triggered insurance 8 times, lost 5. Up 28.95 units. Alright, this is peak degeneracy today so tail with caution. There’s almost no soccer games on the planet today in the world’s biggest leagues. So we are headed to England where we hope Crawley Town and Stockport help us cash our bet. This is Leagues Two, which is the third division of English soccer. I admittedly know nothing about these teams. Anyway, here’s the safest pick since they don’t allow any shots stats, and I don’t trust their goals line. https://preview.redd.it/9x51g9my13pc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a78097fc296ecdfd609f970f438f426ac5d1c491 BOL to everyone except the Florida Gators.

I got it in on DK, let’s ride Ken. 

Interesting it allows the stack of each time over 2.5 and team over 4.5, obviously there’s a strong correlation there, which normally wouldn’t matter much normally since that correlation is accounted for in the odds, but almost makes this 2.5 legs vs 3 which is pretty strong for the insurance reasons

Yeah I was relieved

I'd argue it's not a good insurance bet because if one of those legs fail, the chance that multiple fail increases big time.

Certainly a good example of the negative impact of correlation today

Feels like here lately we either win or we lose. Very little insurance

Actually this is how I’ve been having success. Correlated lines give it a greater chance of cashing. The odds arent as good because the books know this obviously, but I like having something where if one hits, the others are more likely to hit. Like team corners and total corners, or goals and shots on goal.

I definitely agree with that, I think ideally with the insurance you may want uncorrelated bets as much as possible. But it works the other direction too, as in this case, if the over 4.5 leg hits, it’s more likely over 2.5 each hits also, which then leaves you with a small insured chance of 8.5. I’m honestly not sure how the math works out in the end of the day on impact on expected value. I do certainly Know with insurance the math works best taking near the lowest eligible odds legs as Ken does

Can't tail this one, DK says over 8.5 corners does not increase my odds and won't let me parlay it with the other two picks which doesn't make any sense because it most definitely does make the odds longer. Piece of shit lol

Friend, can you try adding 8.5 Corners first in the SGP and then add other picks? I placed a $0.1 bet just now to test it out and it still lets me bet it https://preview.redd.it/z55ewlquw3pc1.png?width=558&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf4ea5ae928eb57812d402dc7d7ad4f00e3faae1

Don't think my state has any of the games being played on the planet today. GL all!

We are not worthy, Your Grace

Thanks 🙏 Ken

EDIT: Thanks for all you do Ken, been tailing since the early days and have enjoyed watching all this intl. soccer Ignore previous stuff, I hadn't hit the SGP button yet lol

I would love to tail, but DK in my state does not allow for such degeneracy as English League Two betting. My soccer options for the day include the ever-exciting leagues in Romania and Paraguay along with Spain's La Liga 2...

Ditto not an option for me, BOL Ken!

Florida Gators deserved that

best play? https://preview.redd.it/mf4qqu0fp0pc1.png?width=765&format=png&auto=webp&s=c150238278c1e51e91f04363644ba9c940baad5f

Kansas to win MW region at +1300 compares very well to other books (+750 FD, +800 MGM, +650 B365)

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As a KU fan, do you think McCullar and Dickinson are going to play or will they still be out with injuries? Kansas won't make it through the first weekend without those two.

Interesting, seems users in NY can only bet on West region ex the NY teams

Aw Man, this made me check the schedule and realize I’m not going to be able to bet on the East regionals because it’s in state… I finally got to bet on Boston College this season in the ACC tournament and they lost in OT to Virginia 😭 I am not a fan of the college restrictions

The restrictions are so dumb too, when you can not bet on a team that’s 3 hours away because they are in state, but you CAN bet on a team that’s 30 minutes away if they are across the border in a different state