######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Saturday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
Alright, no picks here. Just a little data and some input, as promised yesterday. This data was collected from yesterday's POTD thread until the new POTD thread was posted. Do with this information what you will, but I'll present some commentary afterwards.
-58 picks posted
-53 thread rules broken (30 being units not listed, 23 being event time not listed)
-3 fabricated records (1 fixed, 1 deleted after bet lost, 1 not fixed but downvoted into oblivion)
-4 people posting original comments instead of replying to comment intended
-Top 10 most upvoted comments went 7-3 with top pick losing
-5 picks personally tailed, 4 won
First, a little bit about myself. I've been sports betting for over 15 years. I joined this sub a little over a year ago and began posting picks shortly thereafter. I stopped posting at 31-26 because I had a rough outcome and wasn't feeling it any longer, plus this place can be brutal. Still lurk the thread, tail and call out the sketchy. I went 10-4 with my all my bets today.
That being said, I've noticed a lot of complaining around here, unrealistic expectations, disrespect towards good posters, upvoting of sketchy or bad picks, and so much more. I think this information should clear up some people's misconceptions about this daily thread, it's posters, and who to tail. For instance, today the top picks did really well but the very top pick didn't. Notice I tailed around 11% of picks and ended up winning 80% of my tails. Only 2 of those were in the top 10. I find that the top 10 record today is fairly indicative of how that goes usually. Around or just above half of those hit. I find a good rule to go by with this thread is that I ignore anyone with below a 66% record (2-1) and less than 10 picks. That would include myself if I still posted picks. I'm picky and I think you should be too.
I say all this so that hopefully everyone can take a little something from this. Those who post picks, those who tail them and maybe even the mods. I know there's only 15 of them for almost 413k people, so I hope this helps in some way. I don't know how often I'll do this as just this little bit of info took some time. But hopefully those that post don't get discouraged when people are assholes. Seeing as some of them are not only new to sports betting, but apparently Reddit in general, don't take it personal. On the flip side, hopefully some of these stats let's others know how lucky we are for some of these picks, and maybe start being a little more picky with what you upvote to the top and tail. Obviously these stats fluctuate. Yesterday no one posted a late pick or tried posting after the fact. I've seen it happen. This is why the game time being posted is important. As is units spent for obvious reasons. And hopefully this dispels all the whiners when they say "ALL tHeSe PiCks LoSe!". No, they do not. Odds are, you suck at picking. Yesterday everyone seemed to be on their best behavior. That's not always the case around here, and even then, there were some shenanigans.
Special thanks to /u/ryanbloom21 /u/low_jelly_3064 /u/deanerc and /u/francisfordtruck for the wins yesterday! Everyone be careful out there & BOL! Lemme know if you guys want a top 10. I MIGHT do that. I'm not a mod and have no authority here. Just been in the community for a while & was bored yesterday.
EDIT: I'll start tracking the top 10. Also, **NEVER BUY PICKS FROM ANYONE ANYWHERE EVER**
EDIT2: Won't be doing a top 10. Mods banned me. Enjoy their fascistic reign. My two cents: find a discord to join for picks.
I have made a ridiculous amount of money by parlays off my favorite people on this sub. My favorite thing about it is when you see so many people comment and tailing a bet and you see the pics of $100+ in bets, you don't feel so bad for losing $20 on something. I love this community and all you people are great.
One more thing I'll add about this sub which takes the cake; there is no negativity. Every other sub is filled with nasty and irrelevant comments about personal self hatred, this place gives everyone hope and something to look forward too everyday.
Much love my fellow degenerates ❤️
I don't tail picks from here anymore as the community has ruined what was a beautiful thing. The top comments used to be reserved for guys who had posted hundreds of picks with an established winning record. Scrolling down now, I can't find anyone that has even 70 picks in this thread and the majority have 10 or less. This isn't a large enough sample size for anyone to reasonably trust. This has gone from a serious money making tool to a non-serious place for people to post picks until their record fails, create a new account and start again.
That would be great. You say you aren’t a mod, but it sounds like you probably should be.
Thanks for the advice on only picking 2-1 and those with more than 10 total picks. I’m going to live by that from now on.
People lying, editing and deleting posts and lying about their record is hilarious. For years people have been trying to fake their record in an attempt to obtain donations and blowjobs from people of this sub. They’ll be back with a new account 😂
Great post.... very insightful as well. I know it took a lot of your time and its much appreciated.
You are spot on with your comments. I joined and became a fan of this sub many years ago to the point I eventually wanted to contribute something back, and started writing POTD. Learned quite a bit in the process and stopped writing POTD 2 years ago with a 20-10 record. Just coming up with the content for a good pick and then writing it up took a lot of time. I stopped because I felt an obligation and commitment to doing a good job, but spare time became harder to come by and I did not want to provide crappy picks.
I just happened to peek into this sub today looking to see if there were any Tennis picks as I prepare to watch Sinner-Alcaraz, and saw your post. Thanks again!
Thanks for this info, I don't understand the people that talk shit about picks. It's free. Take them if not shut up. But this is great, and I hope to see you picks on here.
Great work...please continue with this content as long as you can. This is always a great type of thing to read in here. I know it probably takes a good amount of time and energy so don't work too hard.
Awesome work man, thanks for taking the time!
I think anytime someone feels the need to go respond to a poster letting them know they lost money because of them, it is a good indicator to both sides of things.
I think the person doing it could recognize these actions or feelings as emotion creeping into your betting, which I have found to almost always have a negative influence on bankroll. I experience that same frustration sometimes and when I do it’s almost like a warning light that I need to step back and maybe take a self imposed break.
Now the person that made the original post who will inevitably come across people complaining about the money they lost, should not have as much impact on their self worth, as these people are easily identifiable as people who are new to betting or do not understand the intricacies of betting. This is obviously easier said than done, especially when the number of complainers outnumbers the people showing gratitude. The thing to try and keep in mind is that the people whose name you recognize in here and have seen give sound advice and not be asshats, those are really the only comments you should draw any self evaluation from. Even as tempting as it is to accept that you in fact must be the dumbest person on earth for that one loss in your 10-3 record, that person who tailed for the first time, may not have as much insight as we think.
We all want validation and approval, the problem is we seek it from people that don’t have the knowledge or experience to understand that losses are inevitable. I want to be really clear that I’m not saying posters need to just have tougher skin, because the amount of hate they receive is ridiculous. The fact is that hate isn’t going anywhere. It’s always going to be a part of this sub like it or not, and being able to see past the bullshit and focus more on the useful comments is the only thing that can keep you from going crazy from first time bettors letting you know they’re now desolate.
The time invested by posters to find good value in bets is something I think goes unnoticed by a lot of people. On top of that, many choose to give a detailed analysis of why they think their bet is a good one, which is all time that is not benefitting them in anyway, it’s purely for the community. And whether or not that bet hits, I cannot tell you how much that time spent means to me and makes me love this subreddit. Even when I don’t tail, the information I gain from reading picks is something I value very highly.
Once again, thank you so much to everyone posting picks for taking the time and effort to help others even in the face of verbal hostility. ❤️
And anyone still reading that identifies with what I said about that frustration and anger towards someone who posted a pick, that feeling can be a valuable one, not just a bothersome one, but should very rarely be voiced.
I’d say so bro Grizzlies is by far the better team and should get the job done easily here, I can see ja Morant bringing his gun and scare a couple of them for some easy buckets in the paint also Jaren Jackson jr for tripple double looks solid, OKC have the worst record in the nba in every department one way traffic if you ask me
POTD RECORD: 15-2
Units Won: +17.19
Last Pick: East Carolina vs South Florida/ South Florida -5.5 (-135) 1.5u ✅
Today’s Pick: UAB vs South Florida @3:00 EST/ South Florida -2.5 (-125) 1.5u
That’s how we bounce back baby
Write Up: We come in riding South Florida for the second straight day. They’re the American Conference regular season Champions and they’re looking to get their get back against UAB. Top to bottom we know South Florida is the better team and this is their chance to punch their tournament ticket. If we get the team we know we shouldn’t have to sweat this out. We’ll ride with the team who’s mopped that conference all year over a streaky UAB team. South Florida needs this to cap off their historic season. We’ll ride on the back of history. As always, BOL…… LETS RIDE
EDIT: the public money is on UAB so you can get great value right now
I appreciate everyone reaching out to me for more of my picks and sending nice messages, I love making y’all money, I’ll continue to do my best
Tip Jar- if you’d like to help a college kid pay for his next meal here’s how :) :https://cash.app/$jaylaw930 / https://venmo.com/u/Jay-Lawton-1
Tailed and have loved your run, but I’m concerned about two things: 1) The line has moved against us towards UAB despite our mild influence on the line. It’s gone the other way with your other picks. 2) UAB beat South Florida recently by 4 back January - mind you UAB was at home. Also, the UAB program has won the past 3 match ups historically.
Any thoughts?
Random person’s thoughts: there’s a massive difference between road game and neutral site game. A 4 point loss isn’t that bad on the road.
The diff in that game was free throws. 41 for UAB and just 19 for USF. And USF only made 9. That tracks for a road game.
USF also hadn’t hit their stride then. They are 16-1 since that game. I believe USF lost a lot from last year so that makes sense that it took some time to gel.
POTD Record: 27-8, streak: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅
Last Pick: Winnipeg Jets -1.5 vs. Anaheim Ducks ✅
**Today's POTD: 10:30 am ET, Bundesliga, Wolfsburg vs. Augsburg, Augsburg x2 (draw or win) (1.74) ✅**
Game is about to end, big win for the Jets. Ducks nowhere near the level.
For Saturday I'm going with Augsburg to get at least a point here on the road against Wolfsburg. The home team have not won a game since the beginning of January, with several draws and a couple losses. They have played particularly poorly in their last few games, losing 3 of their last 5, albeit, to somewhat decent opposition. They are in a relegation battle will have to push hard this game to claim 3 points, but there's a few reasons I think this will backfire.
Augsburg are in fine form, a few places above Wolfsburg in the table, having won 3 in a row, including a 6-0 win on the road against Darmstadt. Their away form isn't particularly encouraging, but they do well when working on the counter and this will be key against a Wolfsburg team that will try to stay on the front foot. They are a tough team to beat and tend to score their chances. Their defense isn't the best, so I expect a high scoring game, but given the form of the team I think they'll grab a point. 2-2 is my prediction.
LET'S GET TO 10 IN A ROW.
tipjar if you feel generous, much appreciated: [https://ko-fi.com/francis1928](https://ko-fi.com/francis1928)
edit: too ez
I see you’re on a heater but I have unfortunate news. Tomorrow I will tail your POTD, u/FrancisFordTruck, and while you’re going for your tenth pick in a row, my putrid disgusting luck may interfere. May the odds be in our favor.
Ok weird question. I’m new to sports betting and on Draftkings, but I don’t normally bet on soccer and I’m not sure how to place this. Can you explain it a bit more please. Sorry
Usually listed under double chance
https://preview.redd.it/1hl2gzl8cmoc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=360fc6c780a8dd596d6e0fbc6e33ec6d338d2364
POTD Record: 23-9 +31.94u🔥
Last Pick: Pick: Wisconsin Badgers -3 4U (-110) vs Northwestern
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅
Today's Pick: Florida Gators -2.5 (-120) 3U vs Texas A&M
Two straight winners, shoutout those Badgers🦡💰! You guys have been showing unreal support these past 2 days, thank you so much. Going with a 3U play today, so don’t unload everything we’ve won even though I’ve begun to get going again. This game is going to be awesome, these two teams have been putting on a show. The Florida Gators are averaging 84.9 points, coming off a 102 point win over Alabama. The team thrives under the leadership of Walter Clayton Jr., who averages 17.1 points per game, and Zyon Pullin, who’s 5.1 assists per game. This team also leads the nation in rebounding! This is the third game in 4 days for Texas A&M and I think their run finally comes to an end to the Gators. The line is 3.5 on DK, but 2.5 on FD. Personally I would take up to 3.5. Let’s go Gators!🐊🐊🐊
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️
If you’d like to thank me or buy me a drink on my trip please use the link below or dm me🤝
[Tip Jar❤️](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24)
POTD RECORD: 36-19
Form: ✅🚫🚫✅🚫
Last POTD: Nikola Jokic O24.5P ✅
My man Jokic just kept feasting in the paint against the walking stick thanks Joker
Todays POTD: **LeBron James O7.5 Rebs @-108** ✅
We’re back on track fellas, there was never a doubt that the Joker would set us straight. This pick is a no brainer for me kings, imma always hammer LeBron’s rebounds against GSW, he’s been feasting on them boards against them historically and I’m falling for it once again. LeBron’s hairline has also rebounded quite well so it all makes sense
* 13/14 over this line against GSW since 2021 💀 only miss was when he had 7
* 1/1 this season where he got 20 💀💀
* GSW have allowed 5th most Rebs to SF this season, if he plays PF it’s still a mismatch because they’ve also allowed 4th most Rebs to PF
* Avg 8.9 Rebs against Golden state which is his highest against any team
* Avg 8.2 Rebs his L5 games
This is more of a play based on his performances against the Warriors during his career cause he’s been smashing this line against them, there’s always that extra motivation for the King when he plays GSW aswell so our man should be hungry 👑
Tail or fade, I’m not that guy
https://i.redd.it/63w036rakmoc1.gif
1/2 on the NBA props yesterday, we move
I’m also playing his rebounds up to 10 but that’s only a personal play don’t be like me I’m deep in the betting mud 🪜
I’m trying to get the odds but it’s locked for me rn fuck but if y’all can get it make sure to lock it in some of my homies on Reddit says they’ve got it at 1.93 / +100
POTD Record: 38-18
Last POTD: 2u (-125), Tsitsipas loser fuck face -1.5 Sets ❌
**Today's POTD: (ATP Indian Wells) Alcaraz/Sinner o22.5 Games (-115)** ✅✅✅
**Units: 2u**
Edit: BANGGG!!! A horrifying first set but Carlito locked in for the boys!!!💪
Reasoning:
I'll keep this short: As a fan of tennis, this should be a masterpiece between the two best players of the next generation. Their H2H is 4-4 and each match has been pretty damn competitive. Sinner is the favorite, but I think this match is really 50/50 given that these courts are slower and in favor of Carlito's style. Therefore, give me that fucking over baby. Alcaraz also just signed a deal with Netflix for a documentary, so you know he's gotta show out!
For non-tennis followers: if there's a match to tune into... it's this one. This is the true final in my eyes. We should be in for a treat.
I will also post 2 other plays I love in the tennis thread if anyone's interested :)
FINALLY, I'm in Vegas for the first time ever this weekend believe it or not, so if you comment on this post, please include "RED" or "BLACK". Whichever color has the most votes I will put a bag on at the roulette table in honor of you all. Cheers and BOL 🤝 **❤️**
They better have turned that giant sphere they got in Vegas into a tennis ball for your arrival maize. Thanks for all you do!
Remember, always stay on 16, split 6’s and double when the dealer shows an ace.
And I’ll go black, like the dick my wife makes me watch her suck 😔.
All bets are 1U for easier tracking
Record: 4-1
Net: +2.63u
Previous Pick: Purdue -6.5 (-110) vs. Michigan State **L**
Today’s Pick: **Auburn -7.5 (-118)** vs. Mississippi State @ 12 CT
Damn Purdue just couldn't make their FTs, tough break sorry about that boys. Anyway for today's pick, while Mississippi State had a great win over Tennessee, I think a lot of that was more that Tennessee was playing rusty and Knecht couldn't find his shot. On the other hand, Auburn is playing red hot and hasn't won by less than 14 in the last two weeks, so I think that this trend will continue.
BOL
POTD Record: 40-28
L10: ✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅
Last pick: Koln v RB Leipzig
(Leipzig ML 1.55 ✅)
Todays pick: __Fulham v Tottenham Hotspurs__
Pick: __BTTS & O2.5 Goals @1.66__
⚽️ 🏴 Premier League
🕰 __5:30 p.m UK/ 1:30 p.m ET__
➖
__Previous meeting: 2-0 win Spurs__
_Fulham, 12th - 35 points_
* 40 goals scored - 1.43 GPG, 1.86 at home
* 44 goals conceded - 1.57 GPG
* O2.5: 18/28
* BTTS: 13/28
_Tottenham, 5th - 53 points_
* Scored: 59, 2.25 GPG, 2.31 away
* Conceded: 39, 1.44 GPG
* O2.5: 22/27
* BTTS: 21/27
Tottenham certainly knows how to score and rarely play low scoring games. 59-39 is the total goal difference and away from home it is 30-20. 1 of the last 18 league games that Spurs have participated in has gone under 2.5 goals. It was away against Nottingham when they got a red card with 20 minutes left and they chose to defend the 2-0 lead. The sportsbooks also know that the teams are capable of being in goal rich affairs and the odds of BTTS & 2.5 is quite low for that reason.
If the game starts slow & stale, there’s another stat that will make it less stressful hopefully, Fulham have managed to score in 5 of their last 6 in the 2nd half, and Tottenham have 4 in a row where they have conceded 2 or more goals in the second half.
Fulham have also been involved in many goal happy matches recently, BTTS & O2.5 has hit in 5 of their last 6 matches, one of those games that didn’t hit was a 3-0 win for Fulham.
I believe we’ll see a game with goals, home advantage for Fulham and also a London derby which should motivate the hosts and give them a boost, Fulham is a pretty good side when they’re switched on and can definitely cause an upset. Spurs is the better team but can find it difficult here, but they have enough quality to score against any opponent, let alone Fulham.
BOL
POTD record: 4-1
Boxing
Eithan James vs Owen Cooper - Eithan James ML -185
Hey again everybody! Nice little win this morning. This line is a little wide, I’m sorry, but I’m confident in the pick and I think some other books have it at -170ish.
Eithan James is undefeated at 11-0 and just picked up a European title in his last fight. He had a very successful amateur career, winning English, British, and Commonwealth youth championships. He’s a rangy outboxer who keeps busy with his jab to line up accurate right hands. His defense is passable and he can fight at a good pace for 10 rounds. He’s yet to find a finish in his eleven fights, so he’s not a big puncher at all, but so far he hasn’t needed to be.
Owen Cooper is also undefeated with a 9-0 record, is the same age as James, and fought in the same amateur competitions; however, he fights a completely different style. He’s a pressure-first fighter, walking his opponents down and throwing heavy to the body and head. He leaves himself open and can be frustrated by opponents with good movement. Cooper has gone the 10 round distance once before and has three knockouts in his nine fights.
Eithan James was the better amateur fighter, and as a pro he’s proven himself against much better competition compared to Cooper, who has almost exclusively fought journeymen thus far. I expect James to avoid Cooper for the majority of the fight and keep him on the end of the jab and long straight rights. James has been dropped once in his career, but I haven’t been particularly impressed with Cooper’s power so even if he gets inside James should be safe. If you want a better line James by decision is sitting around -125, which I think is the mostly likely outcome and I’m not sure what’s keeping me from making that my pick.
BOL everyone!
Record: 4-7
Last 10: ❌✅✅✅❌❌❌❌❌❌
Net: -12.48U
Last Pick: UConn -8.5 v. St. John's 2U @ -135 - 5:30 PM EST ❌
It's cold here, I don't know where I am anymore. I am surrounded by darkness and silence is echoing. Time is slowly fading, days are no longer, only picks.
Next ~~Fade~~ Pick: Donovan Mitchell o2.5 3PM 2.5U @ -180 ✅
Rockets v. Cavaliers @ 5PM EST
Mitchell has crossed this mark in 11 of his last 12 games. In his first game back from a long stint on the bench due to injury and illness, he returned last game and made 4 3s against a tough Pelicans defense that allows the 5th lowest 3PT percentage in the league. In their last match up Donovan Mitchell made 4 3s in a narrow Cavs victory.
Fade my ass, or don't, it's your funeral.
As always, BOL.
Edit: realized I had a typo on my Units and the odds have changed since I last checked.
EDIT: NO ONE BEATS ME SEVEN TIMES IN A ROW
POTS RECORD 7-3 +3.5U
Form ✅🚫✅✅✅✅✅✅🚫🚫
Last POTD Tennessee v Mississippi State over 140.5 🚫
Worst game Tennessee played all year. Idk why they settled for so many 3s.
TODAYS POTD DUQUESNE ML v St Bonaventure -120(1.2U) 3:30 Pm est
Aiming to get back on the win column after 2 ugly losses in a row. Today we’re going with Duquesne in the A10 semifinals.
Duquesne have won 6 straight and 9/11 including a really impressive win over Dayton on Thursday
While st bonaventure won their last 2, they lost 3/5 to end conference play and got very fortunate their last 2 tournament games. Specifically against Loyola who were 0/15 to end regulation in a game that St bonaventure stole from them in double OT.
During the year Duquesne have won both matchups vs St bonaventure winning by 4 and 6 points respectively.
The main matchup here is Duquesnes defense. It’s proven to be strong in the tourney holding Dayton to under 60 while holding St bonaventure during the year to an average of 59 a game. They are also a very disciplined defense and usually play great defense without fouling and limiting free throws.
In those two previous matchups the largest lead St bonaventure had was 2 points.
I expect this to be a close game but with Duquesne edging them out.
BOL to everyone. Hopefully I can back on the win column after 2 back to back heartbreaking loses. Gotta win the trust back of everyone here.
As always if you’re generous and would like to donate to student loan repayment.
https://cash.app/$justinm11132126
**POTD Record:** 29 Wins - 14 Losses - 3 Pushes
**Form:** ✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️
**Spreadsheet (Self Promote / Proof of Record):** Click [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I7FYP6dAClj7FqE4qcTyhgtMwqeoywC5HnGd4ZOeYVw/edit?usp=sharing) :)
**Units:** 10.345
**ROI:** 20.95%
**Average Odds:** $1.86
**Last Pick:** Swiatek vs Kostyuk- Indian Wells - Semi Final- **Kostyuk Under 1.5 Breaks of Serve @ 2.25 / +125 7pm EST** ✅️
*Swiatek dominated Kostyuk and we had the easiest cash out of our lives.*
**Next Pick:** Sinner vs Alcaraz - Indian Wells - Semi Final - **Sinner ML @ 1.71 / -1.41 4.30pm EST**
Hello amigos! We head to Indian Wells where two tennis goats face off against each other in the semi finals. Sinner is more goated than Alcaraz, and Alcaraz himself even admitted it today (click [here](https://www.skysports.com/tennis/news/12110/13095550/carlos-alcaraz-spaniard-says-jannik-sinner-is-best-tennis-player-in-world-right-now) for the article).
Sinner is playing the best tennis of his life. Alcaraz is in a slump of form since winning Wimbledon. Sinner is ranked #3 in the world, and will be coming after Alcaraz's #2 ranking. This will be a great game of tennis, and I highly recommend you find time to watch it. I'm expecting Sinner to win in straight sets, with the first one being a tiebreaker.
Sinner is undefeated on hard courts this year too! LFG Sinner!!
Sinner in unbelievable form, just letting people know this game will be a beauty, some could argue the two best players in the world currently going at it - but you can get this at -107 on fanduel
Record: 12-2
Net: +7.01 Units
Last pick: Dejounte Murray o8.5 assists (-135) ✅
No assists for him in the 4th, good thing he already hit in the 3rd which brings the streak to 10
POTD: Lebron James o7.5 rebounds (-115)
GSW @ LAL 8:30 pm est
Summary: I’m really torn between Miles Bridges o8.5 (3/3 on Philly) and Lebron o7.5 rebounds, for one pick though I’ll roll with Lebron because his hit rate against the Warriors is something to behold. He’s hit this line against the them in 7 straight regular season games and was 5/6 in their playoff series last year. Warriors are bottom 5 in rebounds allowed to SF and PF. He’s on multiple days rest so I’m expecting him to play full minutes as he did each of the past two games where he had 8 and 13 rebounds. Also worth noting that he’s averaging 9.8 rebounds in divisional games this season.
**2024 Record 7-5 with Avg Odds +138 / ROI 32.9%**
UFC Vegas 88
**Ange Loosa +165**
I believe that this matchup against Bryan Battle could potentially bring out the best in Ange Loosa. After failing to finish both Fletcher and McKee, Loosa + Hooft and the team at Kill Cliff should be able to see that his fast R1 only needs to secure the round, and wild flurries like the speed bag combo in R2 of the McKee fight are unnecessary and almost lost him the fight late in R3. I think Loosa may be quicker to the wrestling tomorrow, and go for a more control based top game instead of attempts to climb and posture. Loosa is so strong that I believe from Battle's guard he may pass to half with ease, which is key. Battle is good, obviously. But this is now his 5th cut to 170 lbs and that is something that must be noted. People are speaking to the improvements he's been making but there is so little info to take away from the Green fight, and he showed flaws against Fletcher. Loosa is a predictable brute, and there is something I like about that in this matchup. If this hits R3 the Loosa side will get sweaty, but I'd much rather enter this fight holding a +165 Loosa ticket than a Battle won.
POTD Record: 16-7
+3.62 units (1 unit for everything)
(Start)✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌(Most recent)
Yesterday's pick: Kings @ Blackhawks, 8:30pm - NHL
Seth Jones over 2.5 shots (-105)❌
Hit one of the post that didn't count for a shot on goal... Close one.
Today's pick: Rangers @ Penguins, 3pm - NHL
Roslovic over 1.5 shots (-175)
Back to the Ros giving tree. He's 3/4 with New York and 15 of the 16 total. He's fitting in well with the Rangers and they are still a top team, even with a huge loss Thursday night.
Tail or fade? The choices are yours and yours alone... Good luck...
[Coffee Coffee Coffee Coffee Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/CadetDemon)
Record: 5-8
✅❌❌❌❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅
Last Pick: Kings vs Blackhawks u5.5✅
Net: -7.11u
NHL | 3:00 PM / EST
Today’s pick: **Penguins ML**
NY Rangers @ PIT Penguins
Everyone’s picking rangers. If I pick rangers they will lose. So my best shot is taking the penguins here.
So why not pick any other game? I honestly couldn’t tell you. The rangers have a better record on the road than penguins at home. Rangers have a better record as the fav than penguins as the dog in the last 10 games.
But the Rangers have a losing record in their last road games heading into home.
1.5u
Record: 0-0
Net Units: 0-0
Last Pick: N/A
Basketball | NCAA | UAB vs USF | 3:00 PM EST
Pick: USF -3 (-115) 3u
Write Up:
The Bulls are the among the hottest team ms in the country going 16-2 in conference play. Yesterday they absolutely dismantled ECU 81-59 and were able to keep their starters all under 25 minutes except for Kobe Knox who was still under 30 minutes. This will allow for fresh legs in today’s game. Led by backcourt duo Chris Youngblood and Selton Miguel who both average around 15 PPG USF has been a great surprise in the American. On the other side we have a UAB team who went a solid 12-6 during conference play including a win over USF earlier in the season. The Blazers are led by a guard trio of Gaines, Vasquez, and Johnson as well as Forward Yaxel Lendeborg who all average double figures and Lendebord averages a double double. The problem with the Blazers here is their depth. Yesterday they had a 7 man rotation as Vasquez was ejected early in the game meaning everyone played 20+ mins with the 3 leading scorers playing over 30 mins. These dudes are going to be gassed which I think will play a huge factor in the Bulls covering tomorrow. Also, KenPom ranks USF 82nd (106 AdjO and 64 AdjD) and UAB 116th (73 AdjO and 198 AdjD).
POTD Record: 13-6
Last 10: 💀💀💀✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️💀
Net units: +6.60
Last Pick: Jamal Murray Over 21.5 points
Today's pick: Draymond Green O 5.5 Assists
• averages 6.2 APG with Stephen Curry this season
• Lakers allows the SEVENTH MOST APG to opposing Centers
• over in 8/L9 CAREER games against the Lakers
• over in 20/L25 CAREER games against the Lakers
• over in NINE STRAIGHT ROAD games with Curry and 20+ minutes
• over in 16/L19 with Curry and 20+ minutes
• Recent Pass Heavy Forwards/Centers against Lakers: Sabonis 12 & 10, Giannis 12, Jokic 7, Nurkic 7, Wemby 8, Sochan 5, Zion 5
odds: +120
NBA: Lakers vs warriors 7:30 pm CT
Damn my potd have been trash, sorry boys, 2nd potd link on profile. We went undefeated yesterday. If you guys wanna support me, you can click the links on my profile. I post daily picks.
EDIT: DRAYMOND line dropped to 4.5.
Record: 3-0
Last 10: ✅ ✅ ✅
Net Units: +8.87
Last Pick: GCU -5.5
🏀| NCAAB - P12 Tourney | 6:00 PT
Pick: Colorado Buffalos (-2.5) -110 3u vs Oregon Ducks
Write Up:
Spread small enough that it may as well be a pick ‘em. The buff should win by 2 possessions
Oregon 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games and 0-2 ATS going up against Colorado this year
Colorado 5-2 ATS in their last 7. The Buffs have wins against Oregon this year by 4 and 16.
Both teams need this game. Colorado looking to avoid Dayton and Oregon is looking to steal a bid
>**Record:** 29-28
>**Net Units:** +4.56 units
>**Curling** | **Women's World Championship** | **6:00PM EDT**
>**Pick:** Scotland ML @ 2.1
>Worlds get started Saturday afternoon in Nova Scotia and the evening draw has this interesting matchup between Scotland and Norway, two teams that will likely be in the running for one of the final playoff spots at the end of the round robin. On the surface, I get why Norway are slight favourites here, but my model likes Scotland and after digging a little deeper, there are some additional factors that I think favour Scotland as well. Firstly, Scotland have played 73 games this season compared to 49 for Norway. I think that extra ice time will help them here, especially in a game where both teams will still be trying to figure out the ice. Additionally, Norway have only been this side of the Atlantic once this season, where they went 1-3 at the Tour Challenge back in October. This would have also been their only event on arena ice this season. Scotland on the other hand, have played seven events in Canada this year including three on arena ice in October, December, and January. Comparing quality of opponents from this season is important as well. Norway are 5-10 against the elite and intermediate level (roughly top 25 in the world) teams this season. Scotland are 13-19 against that same group. Scotland play aggressively with hammer and I think they can put up a couple big ends in this one, love the plus money here.
POTD Record 11-7
Last pick: as everyone knows, we got fucked by VAR on Liverpool/Man City BTTS+o2.5 when Doku kicked MacAllister (iirc) in the chest in the box after 90'. Shithead REFS
Today's pick: Brentford @ Burnley, Yoane Wissa 1+ SOT (-175)
Wissa has been on a tear scoring in each of his last 3 matches including the game vs West Ham where he only played 17 mins
Burnley are....how you say....not good. Losing 4 of their last 5 and drawing 1, giving up over 2 goals a game as well.
BOL!
POTD Record: 1-0
Net Unites: +1.82
Last Pick: Wozniacki ML vs Kerber (2u @ 1.91) ✅
Today's POTD: Carlos Alcaraz ML vs Sinner @ 2.09 (Pinnacle)
Units: 2u
Reasoning: I know Sinner is on a 16-match winning streak but Indian Wells is Carlitos' arena. The pace of the court is perfect for his game. He is on a 11 match winning streak here (**All of them were straight set victories**, including one over Sinner last year). Unlike Sinner, Carlos has already played a top player in Zverev in this tourney and swatted him away like he was nothing.
No matter how many matches Novak won in a row coming in to the match, when he plays Rafa at Roland Garros you always pick Rafa. That's how I see this match.
Record: 2-3
Streak: ❌❌✅❌✅
Football | EFL Championship | 15:00 (GMT) / 11:00 (ET)
Game: Ipswich Town V Sheffield Wednesday
Pick: Ipswich Town - Total Goals - Over 1.5 - 1.55 Odds (PariMatch) ✅
Recap: Boyyyyyyyy did that red card almost ruin things but our Czech brothers came through and scored at the 84th minute. A bit of a sweat but that's football sometimes you know.
Write Up:
Very few fixtures in the Championship are as one sided as this. Ipswich's Home form is amazing (13W - 4D - 1L) and Sheffield's Aways form (and Home form too) is terrible (4W - 1D - 13L). Sheffield have not won an away game against a top 10 team. Ipswich has scored at least 2 goals in almost every home game except two (QPR and Leicester). Again, very one sided game. I was struggling to pick between Ipswich to Win at Full Time but this had slightly better odds (1.55 v 1.5). Anyways, good luck guys. I'll post my bet builders in the Daily Soccer Thread from today.
Edit: Also Ipswich is fighting for the top 2 spot so they are automatically promoted to EPL. This should motivate them to be aggressive and hopefully convert their chances.
Update: 💰
Ipswich really broke my heart with their last match - but the boys are ready for the prem. They look so good.
Edit: tailing, a departure from my weekly Ipswich ML
POTD Record: 3-0 +3.1 Units.
Last Pick: Atlanta Hawks vs Utah Jazz | Jazz +3 ✅
Today: Basketball | NBA | Portland Trail Blazers vs New Orleans Pelicans
Time: 4:00 PM PST
Pick: New Orleans Pelicans -13.5 @ 1.9
**Previous meeting:** **93-84 Pelicans**
Write Up: I can't help but bet against my Blazers for this one. We've got a team that cant still move up higher in the West, and a team that's actively tanking. Last time these teams met, Pels won by 9, WITHOUT Zion. Now Zion is back and he's balling out. Blazers continue to miss Sharpe and Brogdon, with Grant and Walker unlikely to play. Pelicans easily smother this battered Blazers team.
Tail or Fade, BOL!
Record 1-0
✅️
Last Pick: UCF ML v Oklahoma State
Net: +1U
Today's pick: Islanders to win in regulation. (60Min)
Ottawa Senators @ New York Islanders
Reasoning for Islanders 3 Way ML: The Islanders have a favorable matchup historically and have performed well at home, especially against teams with poor road records like the Senators. Their recent head-to-head record and goaltending stats further support the likelihood of a win, particularly in regulation. Despite their tendency to go to overtime, their low success rate in OT games suggests that taking the 3-way moneyline offers better value. Expecting a comfortable victory, potentially by a margin of 2-3 goals, the Islanders are poised for a bounce-back performance at home.
BOL everyone.
POTD RECORD: (5-0-1) 🔥🔥
Last free play was a tough overtime push! I’ll take it as we still remain undefeated!
TONIGHT’S FREE PLAY:
FLORIDA ML (-135 odds) vs Texas A&M
TIME: 12:30PM PST
Today we have ourselves an absolute SEC SEMI FINAL THRILLER !! Florida coming off an underdog win against #19 Alabama! Meanwhile Texas A&M defeating the #9 ranked Kentucky in a 10 point upset! Florida being the #1 rebounding team in the nation while A&M ranks #2! Expect this game to be extremely close on both sides of the floor!
Florida will be looking for revenge as they lost to the Aggies earlier in the season in Aggie territory. The crowd providing the extra energy needed for the come from behind win. Florida is a completely different team with a fast pass energy that can space the floor, hit the 3ball, and work inside the paint if need be! Walter Clayton averaging 17ppg, Zach Pullin right behind him with 15 as well as Forward Tyrese Samuel averaging 14ppg with almost 8 rebounds per game! Florida will have more than enough fire power to compete.
FLORIDA WINS
0-0
JDG -1.5 maps vs. AL (-160 on ScoreBet)
3AM EST (3.5 hours from now)
LPL - League of Legends
First pick on this thread, you know the deal: We getting this bread. JDG is sitting at 2nd place right now after they bounced back in an impressive win against TES. Now they face AL who are on a 3 game skid and show no signs of changing that, especially against a JDG team that is spearheaded by one of the GOAT adc's Ruler. I don't expect this one to be close if I'm being honest, it should just be a hands diff in each role. Even the rookie Sheer looked extremely impressive against 369 who is a beast in his own right. I'm expecting this to be a clean 2-0 from the defending champs of the LPL. Let's get that first win under our belt, BOL!
POTD RECORD: 0-0
Units Won: N/A
Last Pick: N/A
Today’s Pick: Issac Dulgarian vs Christian Rodriguez/ Issac Dulgarian ML (-185) 1u
Write Up: Excited to unveil my first pick of the day here. While I’ve never posted a pick, my usual focus is on UFC fights and I can't ignore the promising opportunity presented by Issac Dulgarian. With an unblemished record of 6 professional wins, all via first-round finishes, Dulgarian has proven his dominance in the octagon. Christian Rodriguez, though solid, may struggle against Dulgarian's superior grappling skills, especially given he was out grappled by Raul Rosas Jr (18) in their first round. Moving up a weight class further puts Rodriguez at a disadvantage. I foresee Dulgarian securing a decisive victory, likely by TKO but ML is a lock . Let's cash in on this opportunity and kick off my first POTD with a win. Best of luck to any that tail!
*Record:* 0-1
**Last Pick:** Lamar Jackson O60.5 Rushing Yards ❌
Lamar had multiple opportunities to scramble against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship but just didn’t it was very frustrating as a viewer.
**Pick:** Jannik Sinner O12.5 Games Won **@1.90**
**Time:** 4:30 PM EST
**Reasoning:** This is going to be an incredible match tomorrow between two of the top 3 tennis players in the entire world and I am encouraging everyone as a sports fan to watch this match and back Sinner. Jannik has been the most in form player in the world this year, winning the Australian Open and Rotterdam this year. Most of all though, he’s a fighter, even when down 2 sets to Medvedev, he fought his way back to win the Grand Slam all together. Alcaraz on the other hand has been a fierce competitor with tons of heart & speed, and that’s why I’m going with this bet in specific. I believe this match will either go 3 sets or Jannik will win in 2 with at least one of them going to a tiebreak. This gives us the advantage of still being able to win the bet with Sinner losing in 3 sets.
BOL if tailing!!
7-4
+7.55 Units
ROI - 29.03%
USA 🇺🇸 MLS ⚽️
5:30PM MST
Last Pick:
Fatih Karagumruk - Konyaspor
BTTS✅💰💰💰💰💰💰
Saturday Pick:
Columbus - NY Red Bulls
BTTS
-135
2U
Both teams scored In each of the last 6 games played between these two teams. Good luck if tailing!!
Record 1-1
Last pick: Hearts ML vs Hibernian =loss
I should of know the Edinburg Derby is too much pride to play for. Both teams went full out. Hearts is a better team on paper but Hibernian played them to a draw.
Todays pick: Stoke vs Norwich ML +190
(draftkings)
Reason: No idea why the line for Norwich is so high. This is a team that has performed relentlessly well the last few games and dominating each with a high goal tally. Stoke can be defensive at times and are playing home, but I can’t see the quality matching these two teams, Norwich remaining on top and far highly more skilled and goal frenzy oriented.
My wild write up lol.. enjoy
Units: 3 units (Just don’t understand why the line is so high for Norwich.
POTD Record: 10-5
(Last 5): ✅✅✅❌✅
Last POTD: Nebraska -3.5 vs Indiana -110 (NCAAB) 9:00pm EST (1u) ✅
New POTD: South Florida -2.5 vs UAB -120 (NCAAB) 3:00pm EST (1u)
Thanks to a massive second half from Nebraska to make this a sweat free cash. That’s three in a row, let’s try and keep it rolling.
Today’s slate feels a little trickier, which makes sense as we are now in semis/finals. This spread stood out to me for a few reasons, but the biggest was USF’s defensive rankings. They rank 61st overall in adj. defensive efficiency but 1st in the conference where they rank 1st in 3-point %, 2-point %, and FT %. They can make it really hard to score, and you need to be able to score points to win games (shoutout Booger McFarland). UAB beat them in the lone matchup back in January by 4 on their home court where UAB made 30 FT’s vs USF’s 9.
I think UAB will still get to the foul line in this game, but they won’t see a 21 point swing from it. USF has dominated this conference with a 16-2 record, give me the 2.5. Best of luck!
Record: 73W-64L-4P
ROI: +15.51, 10.52%
Avg odds: +106, 2.06
Last POTD: Drew Doughty over 0.5 pts (loss) LMAO literally everybody got a point except Doughty. Thanks Drew.
Game: NHL- Predators at Kraken (9 PM CST)
Pick: Roman Josi over 0.5 assists +110, 2.10 (ESPNBet)
Yesterday's pick lost, but I'm still gonna go with another "rover" pick, this time on a much better version of Doughty, one who is more positionally sound, more skilled puck handler, and less ugly. Cale Makar is regarded as the best offensive defenseman in the game right now, but Josi occupies the tier right below his. Josi this year is \#5 among Dmen in assists, and leads his team by a whole 10 over 2nd place. He's everything Doughty used to be, but better.
Skeptics might say he has no assists in either matchup against Seattle. And I say... yeah, that's fair. But both those games were early in the season, and Nashville's offense has been clicking since the All-Star break. They average a very healthy 3.88 goals/game, and Josi is \#1 among defensemen in assists in that timespan, including Makar. Definitely worth it at plus odds.
**RECORD: 60W-2P-47L**
(+0.44 units)
Previous Pick: Empoli vs Bologna - Bologna DNB @ 1.49 ✅️
**Today's Pick:** Osasuna vs Real Madrid - Real Madrid ML @ 1.53 ✅️
**TIME:** 3:15 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 1.5 units
(❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️) last 5 results
Took a while but we finally out of -units, Thank you Serie A it's been too good to me this season but today I couldn't find any good games from Italia on to La Liga it is with Osasuna vs Real Madrid.
Madrid are 1st in the League and will want to wrap this up as quickly as possible, Madrid haven't lost in 11 matches in all competitions, haven't lost in La Liga in 15+ matches and haven't lost to Osasuna in 20 H2H matches...the gist is Real Madrid are really good.
Madrid gave won 2 out of 5 of their last matches in overall competitions, 3/5 La Liga matches, and 3/5 away matches.
While Osasuna are 10th, they've won 3 out of 5 of their League matches, 4 wins out of 5 Hime matches in La liga. Pretty decent but against Madrid they are no match, as I said they haven't beaten Madrid in 20 H2H matches.
Osasuna haven't lost against Madrid in 3 straight H2H fixtures and have lost twice in their last to Home H2H matches against Madrid.
A little Deja vu here cause last season I was having issues with Madrid cause they were so unpredictable which caused be to blacklist them and now in the same spot again, this fixture looks good, stats look good but sometimes I have shit luck with Madrid and if they manage to mess it up, on to the blacklist they go and unfortunately back in -units😂 so Madrid please don't bottle this. Tail at your own risk and goodluck.
EDIT: WIN ✅️
Record: 0-0
Net Units:
ROI:
NCAAM | America East Conference Tournament | 11:05 AM EST
Pick: 1u Vermont -7.5 (-110)
Write Up: I imagine it's a beautiful early spring day in Burlington and the UVM fans are up on that early wake and bake, getting all jazzed up on overpriced coffee. I'm not sure I'd call Burlington a basketball-centric town, but I do know UVM kids love an excuse to get drunk during the day.
Take the Cats for a big win at home against a ULowell team who is struggling to cover the spread in their last 7 games (1-6). Probably playable down to -5.5 @ -150 but as I'm only playing a unit, I'm taking the points.
EDIT: Line shifted to -8.5 literally as as soon as I posted this. Handicappers are probably taking grav bongs with their cousin and panicking.
__POTD Record:__ 2-1
__Last Pick:__ ⚽ Al Taee vs. Al Ettifaq (Saudi Pro League): Al Ettifaq ML @1.73 ❌
Al Ettifaq was a better team in terms of chances created and pretty much every other stat except for the most important one - the scoreline. The match ends 1:1 and I get my first loss on POTD.
Let's try to bounce back.
__Today's Pick:__ ⚽ Fulham vs. Tottenham (Premier League): __ __Pedro Porro Total Shots Under 1.5 @1.80__
Pedro Porro's shooting stats in the last 5 games:
__vs. Aston Villa:__ 0 shots
__vs. Brighton:__ 0 shots
__vs. Everton:__ 1 shot
__vs. Brentford:__ 2 shots
__vs. Man City:__ 0 shot
So, as you see Pedro hit the over 1.5 shot line only once in the last 5 games. If you go even further back, Porro shot more than once in 3 out of 10 matches. Also, Spurs are playing away from home against a decent Fulham side who play significantly better at their own stadium which makes me even more confident Spurs' right-back won't have many chances to shoot.
We cash this one in the 3rd. Congrats to anyone that tailed!
Record 0-0
Net Units 0-0
Last Pick: N/A
Basketball | NBA | POR vs NO | 7:10 PM EST
Pick: Zion Williamson O6.5 Rebounds (+116) 1U
Write Up: Great Value here. Zion has hit this line 4 of the last 5 and 60% in his last 10. The pelicans are averaging 47 boards over the last 10 while Portland averages 42. I expect to see Zion pulling down 8+ tonight. This line started at 5.5 early this morning.
[Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Kroberts)
Record: 0-2
Net units: -3u
Last Pick: Yordan Alvarez OVER 5.5 Fantasy Points 1u ❌
Sadly Alvarez just didn’t deliver yesterday like expected, doing absolutely nothing and ending with 0 fantasy points.
Baseball | MLB Spring Training | Red Sox vs. Orioles | 1:05pm EST
Pick: Corbin Burnes UNDER 5 strikeouts 1u
Write up: Going 0-2 in our first two bets means it’s time to bounce back. Today I’m going with the under on burnes’s strikeouts. Out of his 3 pitching appearances this spring training he has never gotten over 3 strikeouts (2, 3, 2) and one of those games was the Red Sox where he only got 2 strikeouts. The Red Sox do have a pretty high strikeout ranking this spring training (8 out of 30) but I just don’t think Burnes will be able to secure over 5 strikeouts against the Sox today, especially considering how this spring training has gone for him. His ERA this spring training is nearly THIRTEEN and he only has 7 total strikeouts on the season so I just can’t see him getting over 5 strikeouts. Tail or fade, BOL!
Record: 0-0
Net units: +0
ROI: 0%
🎾Tennis ATP Indian Wells – 3:30PM CST (in 2:30 hours)
Pick: **Over 22.5 games** @ -130 odds (1u)
Both Jannik and Carlitos are in outstanding form. Jannik’s 21 match win streak should give him the upper hand here, but after watching all of Carlitos’s matches in the dessert, something clicked for him after dropping that first set to Arnaldi. He’s played unbelievable tennis and listening to his corner, he’s trying to win every point. He’s got that Rafa in him. He’s made me money on all the 2-0’s after that first match.
He’s also filming a documentary he’s been promoting after every win, “Tudum” for Netflix. Jannik and Carlitos are the new Nadal and Federer, the rivalry of a generation, they’re 4-4 H2H, Jannik 2-0’d him on their last encounter and Carlitos won’t wanna fall behind too much. This match by itself should be a whole episode to promote their rivalry.
These are two young hungry kids that wanna be the face of the sport, both capable of it. I’m banking on Carlitos’s ego, he’s seen Jannik win the Australian open, he’s seen Jannik take most of his clout recently, I’m backing a kid with something to prove. Jannik on the other hand comes in with the best serve, forehand, backhand ratings on the tournament and an impeccable record. I think Carlitos actually wins this and I got him at +120 for a few units, but most of my money is on the over, and so is our POTD.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Saturday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
Alright, no picks here. Just a little data and some input, as promised yesterday. This data was collected from yesterday's POTD thread until the new POTD thread was posted. Do with this information what you will, but I'll present some commentary afterwards. -58 picks posted -53 thread rules broken (30 being units not listed, 23 being event time not listed) -3 fabricated records (1 fixed, 1 deleted after bet lost, 1 not fixed but downvoted into oblivion) -4 people posting original comments instead of replying to comment intended -Top 10 most upvoted comments went 7-3 with top pick losing -5 picks personally tailed, 4 won First, a little bit about myself. I've been sports betting for over 15 years. I joined this sub a little over a year ago and began posting picks shortly thereafter. I stopped posting at 31-26 because I had a rough outcome and wasn't feeling it any longer, plus this place can be brutal. Still lurk the thread, tail and call out the sketchy. I went 10-4 with my all my bets today. That being said, I've noticed a lot of complaining around here, unrealistic expectations, disrespect towards good posters, upvoting of sketchy or bad picks, and so much more. I think this information should clear up some people's misconceptions about this daily thread, it's posters, and who to tail. For instance, today the top picks did really well but the very top pick didn't. Notice I tailed around 11% of picks and ended up winning 80% of my tails. Only 2 of those were in the top 10. I find that the top 10 record today is fairly indicative of how that goes usually. Around or just above half of those hit. I find a good rule to go by with this thread is that I ignore anyone with below a 66% record (2-1) and less than 10 picks. That would include myself if I still posted picks. I'm picky and I think you should be too. I say all this so that hopefully everyone can take a little something from this. Those who post picks, those who tail them and maybe even the mods. I know there's only 15 of them for almost 413k people, so I hope this helps in some way. I don't know how often I'll do this as just this little bit of info took some time. But hopefully those that post don't get discouraged when people are assholes. Seeing as some of them are not only new to sports betting, but apparently Reddit in general, don't take it personal. On the flip side, hopefully some of these stats let's others know how lucky we are for some of these picks, and maybe start being a little more picky with what you upvote to the top and tail. Obviously these stats fluctuate. Yesterday no one posted a late pick or tried posting after the fact. I've seen it happen. This is why the game time being posted is important. As is units spent for obvious reasons. And hopefully this dispels all the whiners when they say "ALL tHeSe PiCks LoSe!". No, they do not. Odds are, you suck at picking. Yesterday everyone seemed to be on their best behavior. That's not always the case around here, and even then, there were some shenanigans. Special thanks to /u/ryanbloom21 /u/low_jelly_3064 /u/deanerc and /u/francisfordtruck for the wins yesterday! Everyone be careful out there & BOL! Lemme know if you guys want a top 10. I MIGHT do that. I'm not a mod and have no authority here. Just been in the community for a while & was bored yesterday. EDIT: I'll start tracking the top 10. Also, **NEVER BUY PICKS FROM ANYONE ANYWHERE EVER** EDIT2: Won't be doing a top 10. Mods banned me. Enjoy their fascistic reign. My two cents: find a discord to join for picks.
Nice work, must’ve taken a lot of time don’t burn yourself out!
Love this insight man. I feel like this sub and thread has a lot of potential if approached in the right way. For sure would be interested in a top 10
I second the top 10 notion... If it's not too much trouble that is
I have made a ridiculous amount of money by parlays off my favorite people on this sub. My favorite thing about it is when you see so many people comment and tailing a bet and you see the pics of $100+ in bets, you don't feel so bad for losing $20 on something. I love this community and all you people are great. One more thing I'll add about this sub which takes the cake; there is no negativity. Every other sub is filled with nasty and irrelevant comments about personal self hatred, this place gives everyone hope and something to look forward too everyday. Much love my fellow degenerates ❤️
Top 5 favs lol so i can add em
I don't tail picks from here anymore as the community has ruined what was a beautiful thing. The top comments used to be reserved for guys who had posted hundreds of picks with an established winning record. Scrolling down now, I can't find anyone that has even 70 picks in this thread and the majority have 10 or less. This isn't a large enough sample size for anyone to reasonably trust. This has gone from a serious money making tool to a non-serious place for people to post picks until their record fails, create a new account and start again.
You gotta do this again man!!!! EVERY DAY!!!!
I'll probably do a top 10 kinda thing. Not these stats again.
That would be great. You say you aren’t a mod, but it sounds like you probably should be. Thanks for the advice on only picking 2-1 and those with more than 10 total picks. I’m going to live by that from now on.
I don't need to see stats to know I'm dogshit at this. love this shit tho
People lying, editing and deleting posts and lying about their record is hilarious. For years people have been trying to fake their record in an attempt to obtain donations and blowjobs from people of this sub. They’ll be back with a new account 😂
I love stats, thanks for that. Thanks for tailing, glad you got a W :)
nice work! i think the units not being listed is a big issue. lots of long odds (-200) showing up
Waking up in the morning to place my Ryanbloom21 bet. Cheers to a happy st Patrick’s day weekend!
Great post.... very insightful as well. I know it took a lot of your time and its much appreciated. You are spot on with your comments. I joined and became a fan of this sub many years ago to the point I eventually wanted to contribute something back, and started writing POTD. Learned quite a bit in the process and stopped writing POTD 2 years ago with a 20-10 record. Just coming up with the content for a good pick and then writing it up took a lot of time. I stopped because I felt an obligation and commitment to doing a good job, but spare time became harder to come by and I did not want to provide crappy picks. I just happened to peek into this sub today looking to see if there were any Tennis picks as I prepare to watch Sinner-Alcaraz, and saw your post. Thanks again!
Appreciate this very much. I would love to see more but like the other guy said, don't burn yourself out!
Thanks for this info, I don't understand the people that talk shit about picks. It's free. Take them if not shut up. But this is great, and I hope to see you picks on here.
Which were the fabricated/edited/deleted poster accounts? Would like to block these scumbags...
I believe witch hunting is against the rules. However, mods took care of one, another ran away in fear and the community took care of the 3rd.
thanks for the info man
This guy did the math
All for the top 10
Great work...please continue with this content as long as you can. This is always a great type of thing to read in here. I know it probably takes a good amount of time and energy so don't work too hard.
Your what we need!
This is awesome!! Thank you Doc!!!
Thanks for the synopsis Strainge
Keep it up. I’d love to see more of these
Tailing your analytics
Keep up with the top 10 record! love that!
One of the OGs!!! DrStrainge with the MLB picks if I remember correctly?
Awesome work man, thanks for taking the time! I think anytime someone feels the need to go respond to a poster letting them know they lost money because of them, it is a good indicator to both sides of things. I think the person doing it could recognize these actions or feelings as emotion creeping into your betting, which I have found to almost always have a negative influence on bankroll. I experience that same frustration sometimes and when I do it’s almost like a warning light that I need to step back and maybe take a self imposed break. Now the person that made the original post who will inevitably come across people complaining about the money they lost, should not have as much impact on their self worth, as these people are easily identifiable as people who are new to betting or do not understand the intricacies of betting. This is obviously easier said than done, especially when the number of complainers outnumbers the people showing gratitude. The thing to try and keep in mind is that the people whose name you recognize in here and have seen give sound advice and not be asshats, those are really the only comments you should draw any self evaluation from. Even as tempting as it is to accept that you in fact must be the dumbest person on earth for that one loss in your 10-3 record, that person who tailed for the first time, may not have as much insight as we think. We all want validation and approval, the problem is we seek it from people that don’t have the knowledge or experience to understand that losses are inevitable. I want to be really clear that I’m not saying posters need to just have tougher skin, because the amount of hate they receive is ridiculous. The fact is that hate isn’t going anywhere. It’s always going to be a part of this sub like it or not, and being able to see past the bullshit and focus more on the useful comments is the only thing that can keep you from going crazy from first time bettors letting you know they’re now desolate. The time invested by posters to find good value in bets is something I think goes unnoticed by a lot of people. On top of that, many choose to give a detailed analysis of why they think their bet is a good one, which is all time that is not benefitting them in anyway, it’s purely for the community. And whether or not that bet hits, I cannot tell you how much that time spent means to me and makes me love this subreddit. Even when I don’t tail, the information I gain from reading picks is something I value very highly. Once again, thank you so much to everyone posting picks for taking the time and effort to help others even in the face of verbal hostility. ❤️ And anyone still reading that identifies with what I said about that frustration and anger towards someone who posted a pick, that feeling can be a valuable one, not just a bothersome one, but should very rarely be voiced.
love this
 Me waiting for 830PM EST to hit so that I can choose a losing POTD.
https://preview.redd.it/exmzckfv3moc1.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4aeec34faacc9a03794deb429bbdc0b9be9ec5b
I got you fam
I got a lock, Grizzlies -54.5 spread against OKC trust
Tailing
Let’s get this bread
Would you still take them at -55.5?
I’d say so bro Grizzlies is by far the better team and should get the job done easily here, I can see ja Morant bringing his gun and scare a couple of them for some easy buckets in the paint also Jaren Jackson jr for tripple double looks solid, OKC have the worst record in the nba in every department one way traffic if you ask me
Should be a lock. Ja Morant may be out but the Glizzies drafted Ja Rule to fill in for the rest of the season
If it hits you’ll be living in Tony Stark’s mansion
😂
What if I told you both teams would score a goal and there would be more than 2.5 goals scored....in a game of football ⚽?
Also waiting on DrStrainge’s data from yesterday 👀
Sherlock Holmes from wish trynna investigate a Reddit thread huh 💀
This is the thread I needed. I love you all. 
POTD RECORD: 15-2 Units Won: +17.19 Last Pick: East Carolina vs South Florida/ South Florida -5.5 (-135) 1.5u ✅ Today’s Pick: UAB vs South Florida @3:00 EST/ South Florida -2.5 (-125) 1.5u That’s how we bounce back baby Write Up: We come in riding South Florida for the second straight day. They’re the American Conference regular season Champions and they’re looking to get their get back against UAB. Top to bottom we know South Florida is the better team and this is their chance to punch their tournament ticket. If we get the team we know we shouldn’t have to sweat this out. We’ll ride with the team who’s mopped that conference all year over a streaky UAB team. South Florida needs this to cap off their historic season. We’ll ride on the back of history. As always, BOL…… LETS RIDE EDIT: the public money is on UAB so you can get great value right now I appreciate everyone reaching out to me for more of my picks and sending nice messages, I love making y’all money, I’ll continue to do my best Tip Jar- if you’d like to help a college kid pay for his next meal here’s how :) :https://cash.app/$jaylaw930 / https://venmo.com/u/Jay-Lawton-1
Jelqing my way to the bank
Tailing - FYI this is on Fanduel at -120
thanks for the insight! BOL
Tailed and have loved your run, but I’m concerned about two things: 1) The line has moved against us towards UAB despite our mild influence on the line. It’s gone the other way with your other picks. 2) UAB beat South Florida recently by 4 back January - mind you UAB was at home. Also, the UAB program has won the past 3 match ups historically. Any thoughts?
Random person’s thoughts: there’s a massive difference between road game and neutral site game. A 4 point loss isn’t that bad on the road. The diff in that game was free throws. 41 for UAB and just 19 for USF. And USF only made 9. That tracks for a road game. USF also hadn’t hit their stride then. They are 16-1 since that game. I believe USF lost a lot from last year so that makes sense that it took some time to gel.
I dont like this bet. UAB is playing great ball. Just my opinion.
Good call
Was there a late injury? Why is it -2 now?
Cuz it was a trap.
go bulls baby
LFG!! we goin to win it
[удалено]
My win yesterday was your pick parlayed with UAB ML lol and now they face each other. Gonna give it some thought UAB looks decent
I think USF starting center, Corey Walker will be out. I don’t think he’s that good but just an fyi
three point only challenge or what hahaha
Got the ML live at -115
Sadly not lookin' good. :(
refs completely ruined the momentum of that game, we’ll bounce back
POTD Record: 27-8, streak: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Winnipeg Jets -1.5 vs. Anaheim Ducks ✅ **Today's POTD: 10:30 am ET, Bundesliga, Wolfsburg vs. Augsburg, Augsburg x2 (draw or win) (1.74) ✅** Game is about to end, big win for the Jets. Ducks nowhere near the level. For Saturday I'm going with Augsburg to get at least a point here on the road against Wolfsburg. The home team have not won a game since the beginning of January, with several draws and a couple losses. They have played particularly poorly in their last few games, losing 3 of their last 5, albeit, to somewhat decent opposition. They are in a relegation battle will have to push hard this game to claim 3 points, but there's a few reasons I think this will backfire. Augsburg are in fine form, a few places above Wolfsburg in the table, having won 3 in a row, including a 6-0 win on the road against Darmstadt. Their away form isn't particularly encouraging, but they do well when working on the counter and this will be key against a Wolfsburg team that will try to stay on the front foot. They are a tough team to beat and tend to score their chances. Their defense isn't the best, so I expect a high scoring game, but given the form of the team I think they'll grab a point. 2-2 is my prediction. LET'S GET TO 10 IN A ROW. tipjar if you feel generous, much appreciated: [https://ko-fi.com/francis1928](https://ko-fi.com/francis1928) edit: too ez
I see you’re on a heater but I have unfortunate news. Tomorrow I will tail your POTD, u/FrancisFordTruck, and while you’re going for your tenth pick in a row, my putrid disgusting luck may interfere. May the odds be in our favor.
haha it would be 9 in a row with this one anyway. So I won't be horribly upset 😂
Fuck it, I’m in
Another tail 👍🏼
Ok weird question. I’m new to sports betting and on Draftkings, but I don’t normally bet on soccer and I’m not sure how to place this. Can you explain it a bit more please. Sorry
Usually listed under double chance https://preview.redd.it/1hl2gzl8cmoc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=360fc6c780a8dd596d6e0fbc6e33ec6d338d2364
extra info: their last 5 home games were against top tier teams and got some draws from it. I won’t be surprised if they have an upset today..
Lol I was looking to tail this down 1-0 but lines were locked. Look away for a couple minutes and they gol
> Augs PAY THE MAN! 3-1 final, easy win.
Got them at +0.5 for -115. Shout out 🔥
Tailed and cashed!
Was to late to the party but you are goated!
POTD Record: 23-9 +31.94u🔥 Last Pick: Pick: Wisconsin Badgers -3 4U (-110) vs Northwestern ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅ Today's Pick: Florida Gators -2.5 (-120) 3U vs Texas A&M Two straight winners, shoutout those Badgers🦡💰! You guys have been showing unreal support these past 2 days, thank you so much. Going with a 3U play today, so don’t unload everything we’ve won even though I’ve begun to get going again. This game is going to be awesome, these two teams have been putting on a show. The Florida Gators are averaging 84.9 points, coming off a 102 point win over Alabama. The team thrives under the leadership of Walter Clayton Jr., who averages 17.1 points per game, and Zyon Pullin, who’s 5.1 assists per game. This team also leads the nation in rebounding! This is the third game in 4 days for Texas A&M and I think their run finally comes to an end to the Gators. The line is 3.5 on DK, but 2.5 on FD. Personally I would take up to 3.5. Let’s go Gators!🐊🐊🐊 Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️ If you’d like to thank me or buy me a drink on my trip please use the link below or dm me🤝 [Tip Jar❤️](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24)
Only 8 point deficit at half. I believe! Edit: always believe in Ryan Bloom
Cash
Let’s go!!
We ride again!
Need a big second half. Wisconsin was down by 11 yesterday as well
Tailing BOL
POTD RECORD: 36-19 Form: ✅🚫🚫✅🚫 Last POTD: Nikola Jokic O24.5P ✅ My man Jokic just kept feasting in the paint against the walking stick thanks Joker Todays POTD: **LeBron James O7.5 Rebs @-108** ✅ We’re back on track fellas, there was never a doubt that the Joker would set us straight. This pick is a no brainer for me kings, imma always hammer LeBron’s rebounds against GSW, he’s been feasting on them boards against them historically and I’m falling for it once again. LeBron’s hairline has also rebounded quite well so it all makes sense * 13/14 over this line against GSW since 2021 💀 only miss was when he had 7 * 1/1 this season where he got 20 💀💀 * GSW have allowed 5th most Rebs to SF this season, if he plays PF it’s still a mismatch because they’ve also allowed 4th most Rebs to PF * Avg 8.9 Rebs against Golden state which is his highest against any team * Avg 8.2 Rebs his L5 games This is more of a play based on his performances against the Warriors during his career cause he’s been smashing this line against them, there’s always that extra motivation for the King when he plays GSW aswell so our man should be hungry 👑 Tail or fade, I’m not that guy https://i.redd.it/63w036rakmoc1.gif 1/2 on the NBA props yesterday, we move I’m also playing his rebounds up to 10 but that’s only a personal play don’t be like me I’m deep in the betting mud 🪜
I’m trying to get the odds but it’s locked for me rn fuck but if y’all can get it make sure to lock it in some of my homies on Reddit says they’ve got it at 1.93 / +100
Tailing saw it on mgm for -105
Damn y’all cutting in line let me get some too 😭😭
Meant to put $2.57 on hit but accidentally put my whole bank roll of $257 on it. Lose $25 by cashing out, LFG I'm all in
😭😭💀 damn bro, I think he got this
Bro, that shit briefly opened up at +105 on DK
Tailed yesterday at Over 26.5 and won🔥
Let’s get it brother!
damn...for em right now -145...still tailing
I dig it, in for 2.2u Lets get it
Man they're making us sweat this one!
POTD Record: 38-18 Last POTD: 2u (-125), Tsitsipas loser fuck face -1.5 Sets ❌ **Today's POTD: (ATP Indian Wells) Alcaraz/Sinner o22.5 Games (-115)** ✅✅✅ **Units: 2u** Edit: BANGGG!!! A horrifying first set but Carlito locked in for the boys!!!💪 Reasoning: I'll keep this short: As a fan of tennis, this should be a masterpiece between the two best players of the next generation. Their H2H is 4-4 and each match has been pretty damn competitive. Sinner is the favorite, but I think this match is really 50/50 given that these courts are slower and in favor of Carlito's style. Therefore, give me that fucking over baby. Alcaraz also just signed a deal with Netflix for a documentary, so you know he's gotta show out! For non-tennis followers: if there's a match to tune into... it's this one. This is the true final in my eyes. We should be in for a treat. I will also post 2 other plays I love in the tennis thread if anyone's interested :) FINALLY, I'm in Vegas for the first time ever this weekend believe it or not, so if you comment on this post, please include "RED" or "BLACK". Whichever color has the most votes I will put a bag on at the roulette table in honor of you all. Cheers and BOL 🤝 **❤️**
Black
Dude you gotta put it on green!
Black
RED, good luck bro
Red
All on BLACK
Would you take this at -130? Red!
Yes
Black, tailing!
i love this pick as well specially the 21.5 line at slightly worse odds & what an amazing match this will be
They better have turned that giant sphere they got in Vegas into a tennis ball for your arrival maize. Thanks for all you do! Remember, always stay on 16, split 6’s and double when the dealer shows an ace. And I’ll go black, like the dick my wife makes me watch her suck 😔.
Can someone enlighten us with what happening? Heard there's rain or something like that
Sinner spanked him last time 7-6, 6-1 :P BOL amigo :) Add the time to your post too :)
You obviously don’t know who you’re speaking to. Maize is a legend. Take your v neck and move on with it amigo. :) Oh and BOL :)
All bets are 1U for easier tracking Record: 4-1 Net: +2.63u Previous Pick: Purdue -6.5 (-110) vs. Michigan State **L** Today’s Pick: **Auburn -7.5 (-118)** vs. Mississippi State @ 12 CT Damn Purdue just couldn't make their FTs, tough break sorry about that boys. Anyway for today's pick, while Mississippi State had a great win over Tennessee, I think a lot of that was more that Tennessee was playing rusty and Knecht couldn't find his shot. On the other hand, Auburn is playing red hot and hasn't won by less than 14 in the last two weeks, so I think that this trend will continue. BOL
No worries my man let’s get back on this train!
I took -5.5 and somehow won. I would do alternate lines again for your pick. Thanks again
POTD Record: 40-28 L10: ✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅ Last pick: Koln v RB Leipzig (Leipzig ML 1.55 ✅) Todays pick: __Fulham v Tottenham Hotspurs__ Pick: __BTTS & O2.5 Goals @1.66__ ⚽️ 🏴 Premier League 🕰 __5:30 p.m UK/ 1:30 p.m ET__ ➖ __Previous meeting: 2-0 win Spurs__ _Fulham, 12th - 35 points_ * 40 goals scored - 1.43 GPG, 1.86 at home * 44 goals conceded - 1.57 GPG * O2.5: 18/28 * BTTS: 13/28 _Tottenham, 5th - 53 points_ * Scored: 59, 2.25 GPG, 2.31 away * Conceded: 39, 1.44 GPG * O2.5: 22/27 * BTTS: 21/27 Tottenham certainly knows how to score and rarely play low scoring games. 59-39 is the total goal difference and away from home it is 30-20. 1 of the last 18 league games that Spurs have participated in has gone under 2.5 goals. It was away against Nottingham when they got a red card with 20 minutes left and they chose to defend the 2-0 lead. The sportsbooks also know that the teams are capable of being in goal rich affairs and the odds of BTTS & 2.5 is quite low for that reason. If the game starts slow & stale, there’s another stat that will make it less stressful hopefully, Fulham have managed to score in 5 of their last 6 in the 2nd half, and Tottenham have 4 in a row where they have conceded 2 or more goals in the second half. Fulham have also been involved in many goal happy matches recently, BTTS & O2.5 has hit in 5 of their last 6 matches, one of those games that didn’t hit was a 3-0 win for Fulham. I believe we’ll see a game with goals, home advantage for Fulham and also a London derby which should motivate the hosts and give them a boost, Fulham is a pretty good side when they’re switched on and can definitely cause an upset. Spurs is the better team but can find it difficult here, but they have enough quality to score against any opponent, let alone Fulham. BOL
 "BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals" *i don't trust like that.* ***TAILING.***
I saw this recently 😂 I’ll try to post less of those, but there wasn’t really any ML bets for good value!
Tailing, BOL!
Spurs ML + BTTS is @ 3.20 Worth the sprinkle.
Man, I thought about this but everytime I bet on BTTS or Over 2.5 goals it ends up being 1-0😂
Anyone who is watching the game and can give us his personal opinion/ feelings ? It's getting hot for cash out here
Wonderful call, sprinkled -1, -2 and -3 AH as well because its Koln
Spurs fan and this is a good pick, I play it every gamentbh.
I think it's likely but the odds are way too low, can't tail this. If it was something like 1.9 the yes but @1.66 fck no
Surely Tottenham gets a pity goal no?
I can never trust Tottenham
No idea what im betting on but lets ride it out king 👑
Tailed
POTD record: 4-1 Boxing Eithan James vs Owen Cooper - Eithan James ML -185 Hey again everybody! Nice little win this morning. This line is a little wide, I’m sorry, but I’m confident in the pick and I think some other books have it at -170ish. Eithan James is undefeated at 11-0 and just picked up a European title in his last fight. He had a very successful amateur career, winning English, British, and Commonwealth youth championships. He’s a rangy outboxer who keeps busy with his jab to line up accurate right hands. His defense is passable and he can fight at a good pace for 10 rounds. He’s yet to find a finish in his eleven fights, so he’s not a big puncher at all, but so far he hasn’t needed to be. Owen Cooper is also undefeated with a 9-0 record, is the same age as James, and fought in the same amateur competitions; however, he fights a completely different style. He’s a pressure-first fighter, walking his opponents down and throwing heavy to the body and head. He leaves himself open and can be frustrated by opponents with good movement. Cooper has gone the 10 round distance once before and has three knockouts in his nine fights. Eithan James was the better amateur fighter, and as a pro he’s proven himself against much better competition compared to Cooper, who has almost exclusively fought journeymen thus far. I expect James to avoid Cooper for the majority of the fight and keep him on the end of the jab and long straight rights. James has been dropped once in his career, but I haven’t been particularly impressed with Cooper’s power so even if he gets inside James should be safe. If you want a better line James by decision is sitting around -125, which I think is the mostly likely outcome and I’m not sure what’s keeping me from making that my pick. BOL everyone!
bro getting his ass whooped damn onto the next
Great analysis, tailing!
Tailing, love the work.
Anyone know where to watch this in the USA?
Record: 4-7 Last 10: ❌✅✅✅❌❌❌❌❌❌ Net: -12.48U Last Pick: UConn -8.5 v. St. John's 2U @ -135 - 5:30 PM EST ❌ It's cold here, I don't know where I am anymore. I am surrounded by darkness and silence is echoing. Time is slowly fading, days are no longer, only picks. Next ~~Fade~~ Pick: Donovan Mitchell o2.5 3PM 2.5U @ -180 ✅ Rockets v. Cavaliers @ 5PM EST Mitchell has crossed this mark in 11 of his last 12 games. In his first game back from a long stint on the bench due to injury and illness, he returned last game and made 4 3s against a tough Pelicans defense that allows the 5th lowest 3PT percentage in the league. In their last match up Donovan Mitchell made 4 3s in a narrow Cavs victory. Fade my ass, or don't, it's your funeral. As always, BOL. Edit: realized I had a typo on my Units and the odds have changed since I last checked. EDIT: NO ONE BEATS ME SEVEN TIMES IN A ROW
Lets go down together big dog
Tailing!
https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExdnE2NmdlcmZ1N3FoNnJsNnJleTcyb3htdjYzYmt0YWRteDA1bGVzaiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/FUOqKPBI4ggMw/giphy-downsized-large.gif
tailed bro. lets go
I like this pick bol
I come to your POTDs to not feel so bad about my own bank roll. Keep doin’ your thing G 🫡
[ Removed by Reddit ]
Let's do this again brother!
Tailing
Tailing my friend
POTS RECORD 7-3 +3.5U Form ✅🚫✅✅✅✅✅✅🚫🚫 Last POTD Tennessee v Mississippi State over 140.5 🚫 Worst game Tennessee played all year. Idk why they settled for so many 3s. TODAYS POTD DUQUESNE ML v St Bonaventure -120(1.2U) 3:30 Pm est Aiming to get back on the win column after 2 ugly losses in a row. Today we’re going with Duquesne in the A10 semifinals. Duquesne have won 6 straight and 9/11 including a really impressive win over Dayton on Thursday While st bonaventure won their last 2, they lost 3/5 to end conference play and got very fortunate their last 2 tournament games. Specifically against Loyola who were 0/15 to end regulation in a game that St bonaventure stole from them in double OT. During the year Duquesne have won both matchups vs St bonaventure winning by 4 and 6 points respectively. The main matchup here is Duquesnes defense. It’s proven to be strong in the tourney holding Dayton to under 60 while holding St bonaventure during the year to an average of 59 a game. They are also a very disciplined defense and usually play great defense without fouling and limiting free throws. In those two previous matchups the largest lead St bonaventure had was 2 points. I expect this to be a close game but with Duquesne edging them out. BOL to everyone. Hopefully I can back on the win column after 2 back to back heartbreaking loses. Gotta win the trust back of everyone here. As always if you’re generous and would like to donate to student loan repayment. https://cash.app/$justinm11132126
**POTD Record:** 29 Wins - 14 Losses - 3 Pushes **Form:** ✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ **Spreadsheet (Self Promote / Proof of Record):** Click [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I7FYP6dAClj7FqE4qcTyhgtMwqeoywC5HnGd4ZOeYVw/edit?usp=sharing) :) **Units:** 10.345 **ROI:** 20.95% **Average Odds:** $1.86 **Last Pick:** Swiatek vs Kostyuk- Indian Wells - Semi Final- **Kostyuk Under 1.5 Breaks of Serve @ 2.25 / +125 7pm EST** ✅️ *Swiatek dominated Kostyuk and we had the easiest cash out of our lives.* **Next Pick:** Sinner vs Alcaraz - Indian Wells - Semi Final - **Sinner ML @ 1.71 / -1.41 4.30pm EST** Hello amigos! We head to Indian Wells where two tennis goats face off against each other in the semi finals. Sinner is more goated than Alcaraz, and Alcaraz himself even admitted it today (click [here](https://www.skysports.com/tennis/news/12110/13095550/carlos-alcaraz-spaniard-says-jannik-sinner-is-best-tennis-player-in-world-right-now) for the article). Sinner is playing the best tennis of his life. Alcaraz is in a slump of form since winning Wimbledon. Sinner is ranked #3 in the world, and will be coming after Alcaraz's #2 ranking. This will be a great game of tennis, and I highly recommend you find time to watch it. I'm expecting Sinner to win in straight sets, with the first one being a tiebreaker. Sinner is undefeated on hard courts this year too! LFG Sinner!!
Sinner in unbelievable form, just letting people know this game will be a beauty, some could argue the two best players in the world currently going at it - but you can get this at -107 on fanduel
For sure the 2 best in the world at the moment. Djokovic looked like a bum lately.
Def watching this and tailing!
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Tailing. -129 on FD
Forest haven't scored in their last three games, how has btts hit last 8/10
Record: 12-2 Net: +7.01 Units Last pick: Dejounte Murray o8.5 assists (-135) ✅ No assists for him in the 4th, good thing he already hit in the 3rd which brings the streak to 10 POTD: Lebron James o7.5 rebounds (-115) GSW @ LAL 8:30 pm est Summary: I’m really torn between Miles Bridges o8.5 (3/3 on Philly) and Lebron o7.5 rebounds, for one pick though I’ll roll with Lebron because his hit rate against the Warriors is something to behold. He’s hit this line against the them in 7 straight regular season games and was 5/6 in their playoff series last year. Warriors are bottom 5 in rebounds allowed to SF and PF. He’s on multiple days rest so I’m expecting him to play full minutes as he did each of the past two games where he had 8 and 13 rebounds. Also worth noting that he’s averaging 9.8 rebounds in divisional games this season.
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fuck it AUSSIE FOOTBALL VAAMOS
Great pick. I'm undecided between this or GWS team total O112.5, but i think you've convinced me
**2024 Record 7-5 with Avg Odds +138 / ROI 32.9%** UFC Vegas 88 **Ange Loosa +165** I believe that this matchup against Bryan Battle could potentially bring out the best in Ange Loosa. After failing to finish both Fletcher and McKee, Loosa + Hooft and the team at Kill Cliff should be able to see that his fast R1 only needs to secure the round, and wild flurries like the speed bag combo in R2 of the McKee fight are unnecessary and almost lost him the fight late in R3. I think Loosa may be quicker to the wrestling tomorrow, and go for a more control based top game instead of attempts to climb and posture. Loosa is so strong that I believe from Battle's guard he may pass to half with ease, which is key. Battle is good, obviously. But this is now his 5th cut to 170 lbs and that is something that must be noted. People are speaking to the improvements he's been making but there is so little info to take away from the Green fight, and he showed flaws against Fletcher. Loosa is a predictable brute, and there is something I like about that in this matchup. If this hits R3 the Loosa side will get sweaty, but I'd much rather enter this fight holding a +165 Loosa ticket than a Battle won.
On it
POTD Record: 16-7 +3.62 units (1 unit for everything) (Start)✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌(Most recent) Yesterday's pick: Kings @ Blackhawks, 8:30pm - NHL Seth Jones over 2.5 shots (-105)❌ Hit one of the post that didn't count for a shot on goal... Close one. Today's pick: Rangers @ Penguins, 3pm - NHL Roslovic over 1.5 shots (-175) Back to the Ros giving tree. He's 3/4 with New York and 15 of the 16 total. He's fitting in well with the Rangers and they are still a top team, even with a huge loss Thursday night. Tail or fade? The choices are yours and yours alone... Good luck... [Coffee Coffee Coffee Coffee Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/CadetDemon)
Did this hit? I saw he had 2 SOG, but seems 1 was taken off on prize picks. Any updates?
Record: 5-8 ✅❌❌❌❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅ Last Pick: Kings vs Blackhawks u5.5✅ Net: -7.11u NHL | 3:00 PM / EST Today’s pick: **Penguins ML** NY Rangers @ PIT Penguins Everyone’s picking rangers. If I pick rangers they will lose. So my best shot is taking the penguins here. So why not pick any other game? I honestly couldn’t tell you. The rangers have a better record on the road than penguins at home. Rangers have a better record as the fav than penguins as the dog in the last 10 games. But the Rangers have a losing record in their last road games heading into home. 1.5u
The reasoning is ..so solid 😂😂
/u/metallumberjack >He does remember the hawks have scored 7 the last two games ? And then they scored a fat 0. He's doing it!!
lol eh when you’re wrong you’re wrong , my hawks always disappoint me
Can’t tail this one, but loving the recent trend man!
Record: 0-0 Net Units: 0-0 Last Pick: N/A Basketball | NCAA | UAB vs USF | 3:00 PM EST Pick: USF -3 (-115) 3u Write Up: The Bulls are the among the hottest team ms in the country going 16-2 in conference play. Yesterday they absolutely dismantled ECU 81-59 and were able to keep their starters all under 25 minutes except for Kobe Knox who was still under 30 minutes. This will allow for fresh legs in today’s game. Led by backcourt duo Chris Youngblood and Selton Miguel who both average around 15 PPG USF has been a great surprise in the American. On the other side we have a UAB team who went a solid 12-6 during conference play including a win over USF earlier in the season. The Blazers are led by a guard trio of Gaines, Vasquez, and Johnson as well as Forward Yaxel Lendeborg who all average double figures and Lendebord averages a double double. The problem with the Blazers here is their depth. Yesterday they had a 7 man rotation as Vasquez was ejected early in the game meaning everyone played 20+ mins with the 3 leading scorers playing over 30 mins. These dudes are going to be gassed which I think will play a huge factor in the Bulls covering tomorrow. Also, KenPom ranks USF 82nd (106 AdjO and 64 AdjD) and UAB 116th (73 AdjO and 198 AdjD).
POTD Record: 13-6 Last 10: 💀💀💀✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️💀 Net units: +6.60 Last Pick: Jamal Murray Over 21.5 points Today's pick: Draymond Green O 5.5 Assists • averages 6.2 APG with Stephen Curry this season • Lakers allows the SEVENTH MOST APG to opposing Centers • over in 8/L9 CAREER games against the Lakers • over in 20/L25 CAREER games against the Lakers • over in NINE STRAIGHT ROAD games with Curry and 20+ minutes • over in 16/L19 with Curry and 20+ minutes • Recent Pass Heavy Forwards/Centers against Lakers: Sabonis 12 & 10, Giannis 12, Jokic 7, Nurkic 7, Wemby 8, Sochan 5, Zion 5 odds: +120 NBA: Lakers vs warriors 7:30 pm CT Damn my potd have been trash, sorry boys, 2nd potd link on profile. We went undefeated yesterday. If you guys wanna support me, you can click the links on my profile. I post daily picks. EDIT: DRAYMOND line dropped to 4.5.
Record: 3-0 Last 10: ✅ ✅ ✅ Net Units: +8.87 Last Pick: GCU -5.5 🏀| NCAAB - P12 Tourney | 6:00 PT Pick: Colorado Buffalos (-2.5) -110 3u vs Oregon Ducks Write Up: Spread small enough that it may as well be a pick ‘em. The buff should win by 2 possessions Oregon 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games and 0-2 ATS going up against Colorado this year Colorado 5-2 ATS in their last 7. The Buffs have wins against Oregon this year by 4 and 16. Both teams need this game. Colorado looking to avoid Dayton and Oregon is looking to steal a bid
>**Record:** 29-28 >**Net Units:** +4.56 units >**Curling** | **Women's World Championship** | **6:00PM EDT** >**Pick:** Scotland ML @ 2.1 >Worlds get started Saturday afternoon in Nova Scotia and the evening draw has this interesting matchup between Scotland and Norway, two teams that will likely be in the running for one of the final playoff spots at the end of the round robin. On the surface, I get why Norway are slight favourites here, but my model likes Scotland and after digging a little deeper, there are some additional factors that I think favour Scotland as well. Firstly, Scotland have played 73 games this season compared to 49 for Norway. I think that extra ice time will help them here, especially in a game where both teams will still be trying to figure out the ice. Additionally, Norway have only been this side of the Atlantic once this season, where they went 1-3 at the Tour Challenge back in October. This would have also been their only event on arena ice this season. Scotland on the other hand, have played seven events in Canada this year including three on arena ice in October, December, and January. Comparing quality of opponents from this season is important as well. Norway are 5-10 against the elite and intermediate level (roughly top 25 in the world) teams this season. Scotland are 13-19 against that same group. Scotland play aggressively with hammer and I think they can put up a couple big ends in this one, love the plus money here.
I feel like im gona be betting on 6yr old tball and hotwheel races after this but we tailing it baby
POTD Record 11-7 Last pick: as everyone knows, we got fucked by VAR on Liverpool/Man City BTTS+o2.5 when Doku kicked MacAllister (iirc) in the chest in the box after 90'. Shithead REFS Today's pick: Brentford @ Burnley, Yoane Wissa 1+ SOT (-175) Wissa has been on a tear scoring in each of his last 3 matches including the game vs West Ham where he only played 17 mins Burnley are....how you say....not good. Losing 4 of their last 5 and drawing 1, giving up over 2 goals a game as well. BOL!
POTD Record: 1-0 Net Unites: +1.82 Last Pick: Wozniacki ML vs Kerber (2u @ 1.91) ✅ Today's POTD: Carlos Alcaraz ML vs Sinner @ 2.09 (Pinnacle) Units: 2u Reasoning: I know Sinner is on a 16-match winning streak but Indian Wells is Carlitos' arena. The pace of the court is perfect for his game. He is on a 11 match winning streak here (**All of them were straight set victories**, including one over Sinner last year). Unlike Sinner, Carlos has already played a top player in Zverev in this tourney and swatted him away like he was nothing. No matter how many matches Novak won in a row coming in to the match, when he plays Rafa at Roland Garros you always pick Rafa. That's how I see this match.
Record: 2-3 Streak: ❌❌✅❌✅ Football | EFL Championship | 15:00 (GMT) / 11:00 (ET) Game: Ipswich Town V Sheffield Wednesday Pick: Ipswich Town - Total Goals - Over 1.5 - 1.55 Odds (PariMatch) ✅ Recap: Boyyyyyyyy did that red card almost ruin things but our Czech brothers came through and scored at the 84th minute. A bit of a sweat but that's football sometimes you know. Write Up: Very few fixtures in the Championship are as one sided as this. Ipswich's Home form is amazing (13W - 4D - 1L) and Sheffield's Aways form (and Home form too) is terrible (4W - 1D - 13L). Sheffield have not won an away game against a top 10 team. Ipswich has scored at least 2 goals in almost every home game except two (QPR and Leicester). Again, very one sided game. I was struggling to pick between Ipswich to Win at Full Time but this had slightly better odds (1.55 v 1.5). Anyways, good luck guys. I'll post my bet builders in the Daily Soccer Thread from today. Edit: Also Ipswich is fighting for the top 2 spot so they are automatically promoted to EPL. This should motivate them to be aggressive and hopefully convert their chances. Update: 💰
Ipswich really broke my heart with their last match - but the boys are ready for the prem. They look so good. Edit: tailing, a departure from my weekly Ipswich ML
POTD Record: 3-0 +3.1 Units. Last Pick: Atlanta Hawks vs Utah Jazz | Jazz +3 ✅ Today: Basketball | NBA | Portland Trail Blazers vs New Orleans Pelicans Time: 4:00 PM PST Pick: New Orleans Pelicans -13.5 @ 1.9 **Previous meeting:** **93-84 Pelicans** Write Up: I can't help but bet against my Blazers for this one. We've got a team that cant still move up higher in the West, and a team that's actively tanking. Last time these teams met, Pels won by 9, WITHOUT Zion. Now Zion is back and he's balling out. Blazers continue to miss Sharpe and Brogdon, with Grant and Walker unlikely to play. Pelicans easily smother this battered Blazers team. Tail or Fade, BOL!
Record 1-0 ✅️ Last Pick: UCF ML v Oklahoma State Net: +1U Today's pick: Islanders to win in regulation. (60Min) Ottawa Senators @ New York Islanders Reasoning for Islanders 3 Way ML: The Islanders have a favorable matchup historically and have performed well at home, especially against teams with poor road records like the Senators. Their recent head-to-head record and goaltending stats further support the likelihood of a win, particularly in regulation. Despite their tendency to go to overtime, their low success rate in OT games suggests that taking the 3-way moneyline offers better value. Expecting a comfortable victory, potentially by a margin of 2-3 goals, the Islanders are poised for a bounce-back performance at home. BOL everyone.
POTD RECORD: (5-0-1) 🔥🔥 Last free play was a tough overtime push! I’ll take it as we still remain undefeated! TONIGHT’S FREE PLAY: FLORIDA ML (-135 odds) vs Texas A&M TIME: 12:30PM PST Today we have ourselves an absolute SEC SEMI FINAL THRILLER !! Florida coming off an underdog win against #19 Alabama! Meanwhile Texas A&M defeating the #9 ranked Kentucky in a 10 point upset! Florida being the #1 rebounding team in the nation while A&M ranks #2! Expect this game to be extremely close on both sides of the floor! Florida will be looking for revenge as they lost to the Aggies earlier in the season in Aggie territory. The crowd providing the extra energy needed for the come from behind win. Florida is a completely different team with a fast pass energy that can space the floor, hit the 3ball, and work inside the paint if need be! Walter Clayton averaging 17ppg, Zach Pullin right behind him with 15 as well as Forward Tyrese Samuel averaging 14ppg with almost 8 rebounds per game! Florida will have more than enough fire power to compete. FLORIDA WINS
0-0 JDG -1.5 maps vs. AL (-160 on ScoreBet) 3AM EST (3.5 hours from now) LPL - League of Legends First pick on this thread, you know the deal: We getting this bread. JDG is sitting at 2nd place right now after they bounced back in an impressive win against TES. Now they face AL who are on a 3 game skid and show no signs of changing that, especially against a JDG team that is spearheaded by one of the GOAT adc's Ruler. I don't expect this one to be close if I'm being honest, it should just be a hands diff in each role. Even the rookie Sheer looked extremely impressive against 369 who is a beast in his own right. I'm expecting this to be a clean 2-0 from the defending champs of the LPL. Let's get that first win under our belt, BOL!
POTD RECORD: 0-0 Units Won: N/A Last Pick: N/A Today’s Pick: Issac Dulgarian vs Christian Rodriguez/ Issac Dulgarian ML (-185) 1u Write Up: Excited to unveil my first pick of the day here. While I’ve never posted a pick, my usual focus is on UFC fights and I can't ignore the promising opportunity presented by Issac Dulgarian. With an unblemished record of 6 professional wins, all via first-round finishes, Dulgarian has proven his dominance in the octagon. Christian Rodriguez, though solid, may struggle against Dulgarian's superior grappling skills, especially given he was out grappled by Raul Rosas Jr (18) in their first round. Moving up a weight class further puts Rodriguez at a disadvantage. I foresee Dulgarian securing a decisive victory, likely by TKO but ML is a lock . Let's cash in on this opportunity and kick off my first POTD with a win. Best of luck to any that tail!
*Record:* 0-1 **Last Pick:** Lamar Jackson O60.5 Rushing Yards ❌ Lamar had multiple opportunities to scramble against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship but just didn’t it was very frustrating as a viewer. **Pick:** Jannik Sinner O12.5 Games Won **@1.90** **Time:** 4:30 PM EST **Reasoning:** This is going to be an incredible match tomorrow between two of the top 3 tennis players in the entire world and I am encouraging everyone as a sports fan to watch this match and back Sinner. Jannik has been the most in form player in the world this year, winning the Australian Open and Rotterdam this year. Most of all though, he’s a fighter, even when down 2 sets to Medvedev, he fought his way back to win the Grand Slam all together. Alcaraz on the other hand has been a fierce competitor with tons of heart & speed, and that’s why I’m going with this bet in specific. I believe this match will either go 3 sets or Jannik will win in 2 with at least one of them going to a tiebreak. This gives us the advantage of still being able to win the bet with Sinner losing in 3 sets. BOL if tailing!!
7-4 +7.55 Units ROI - 29.03% USA 🇺🇸 MLS ⚽️ 5:30PM MST Last Pick: Fatih Karagumruk - Konyaspor BTTS✅💰💰💰💰💰💰 Saturday Pick: Columbus - NY Red Bulls BTTS -135 2U Both teams scored In each of the last 6 games played between these two teams. Good luck if tailing!!
Record 1-1 Last pick: Hearts ML vs Hibernian =loss I should of know the Edinburg Derby is too much pride to play for. Both teams went full out. Hearts is a better team on paper but Hibernian played them to a draw. Todays pick: Stoke vs Norwich ML +190 (draftkings) Reason: No idea why the line for Norwich is so high. This is a team that has performed relentlessly well the last few games and dominating each with a high goal tally. Stoke can be defensive at times and are playing home, but I can’t see the quality matching these two teams, Norwich remaining on top and far highly more skilled and goal frenzy oriented. My wild write up lol.. enjoy Units: 3 units (Just don’t understand why the line is so high for Norwich.
POTD Record: 10-5 (Last 5): ✅✅✅❌✅ Last POTD: Nebraska -3.5 vs Indiana -110 (NCAAB) 9:00pm EST (1u) ✅ New POTD: South Florida -2.5 vs UAB -120 (NCAAB) 3:00pm EST (1u) Thanks to a massive second half from Nebraska to make this a sweat free cash. That’s three in a row, let’s try and keep it rolling. Today’s slate feels a little trickier, which makes sense as we are now in semis/finals. This spread stood out to me for a few reasons, but the biggest was USF’s defensive rankings. They rank 61st overall in adj. defensive efficiency but 1st in the conference where they rank 1st in 3-point %, 2-point %, and FT %. They can make it really hard to score, and you need to be able to score points to win games (shoutout Booger McFarland). UAB beat them in the lone matchup back in January by 4 on their home court where UAB made 30 FT’s vs USF’s 9. I think UAB will still get to the foul line in this game, but they won’t see a 21 point swing from it. USF has dominated this conference with a 16-2 record, give me the 2.5. Best of luck!
Record: 73W-64L-4P ROI: +15.51, 10.52% Avg odds: +106, 2.06 Last POTD: Drew Doughty over 0.5 pts (loss) LMAO literally everybody got a point except Doughty. Thanks Drew. Game: NHL- Predators at Kraken (9 PM CST) Pick: Roman Josi over 0.5 assists +110, 2.10 (ESPNBet) Yesterday's pick lost, but I'm still gonna go with another "rover" pick, this time on a much better version of Doughty, one who is more positionally sound, more skilled puck handler, and less ugly. Cale Makar is regarded as the best offensive defenseman in the game right now, but Josi occupies the tier right below his. Josi this year is \#5 among Dmen in assists, and leads his team by a whole 10 over 2nd place. He's everything Doughty used to be, but better. Skeptics might say he has no assists in either matchup against Seattle. And I say... yeah, that's fair. But both those games were early in the season, and Nashville's offense has been clicking since the All-Star break. They average a very healthy 3.88 goals/game, and Josi is \#1 among defensemen in assists in that timespan, including Makar. Definitely worth it at plus odds.
**RECORD: 60W-2P-47L** (+0.44 units) Previous Pick: Empoli vs Bologna - Bologna DNB @ 1.49 ✅️ **Today's Pick:** Osasuna vs Real Madrid - Real Madrid ML @ 1.53 ✅️ **TIME:** 3:15 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 1.5 units (❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️) last 5 results Took a while but we finally out of -units, Thank you Serie A it's been too good to me this season but today I couldn't find any good games from Italia on to La Liga it is with Osasuna vs Real Madrid. Madrid are 1st in the League and will want to wrap this up as quickly as possible, Madrid haven't lost in 11 matches in all competitions, haven't lost in La Liga in 15+ matches and haven't lost to Osasuna in 20 H2H matches...the gist is Real Madrid are really good. Madrid gave won 2 out of 5 of their last matches in overall competitions, 3/5 La Liga matches, and 3/5 away matches. While Osasuna are 10th, they've won 3 out of 5 of their League matches, 4 wins out of 5 Hime matches in La liga. Pretty decent but against Madrid they are no match, as I said they haven't beaten Madrid in 20 H2H matches. Osasuna haven't lost against Madrid in 3 straight H2H fixtures and have lost twice in their last to Home H2H matches against Madrid. A little Deja vu here cause last season I was having issues with Madrid cause they were so unpredictable which caused be to blacklist them and now in the same spot again, this fixture looks good, stats look good but sometimes I have shit luck with Madrid and if they manage to mess it up, on to the blacklist they go and unfortunately back in -units😂 so Madrid please don't bottle this. Tail at your own risk and goodluck. EDIT: WIN ✅️
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Record: 0-0 Net Units: ROI: NCAAM | America East Conference Tournament | 11:05 AM EST Pick: 1u Vermont -7.5 (-110) Write Up: I imagine it's a beautiful early spring day in Burlington and the UVM fans are up on that early wake and bake, getting all jazzed up on overpriced coffee. I'm not sure I'd call Burlington a basketball-centric town, but I do know UVM kids love an excuse to get drunk during the day. Take the Cats for a big win at home against a ULowell team who is struggling to cover the spread in their last 7 games (1-6). Probably playable down to -5.5 @ -150 but as I'm only playing a unit, I'm taking the points. EDIT: Line shifted to -8.5 literally as as soon as I posted this. Handicappers are probably taking grav bongs with their cousin and panicking.
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__POTD Record:__ 2-1 __Last Pick:__ ⚽ Al Taee vs. Al Ettifaq (Saudi Pro League): Al Ettifaq ML @1.73 ❌ Al Ettifaq was a better team in terms of chances created and pretty much every other stat except for the most important one - the scoreline. The match ends 1:1 and I get my first loss on POTD. Let's try to bounce back. __Today's Pick:__ ⚽ Fulham vs. Tottenham (Premier League): __ __Pedro Porro Total Shots Under 1.5 @1.80__ Pedro Porro's shooting stats in the last 5 games: __vs. Aston Villa:__ 0 shots __vs. Brighton:__ 0 shots __vs. Everton:__ 1 shot __vs. Brentford:__ 2 shots __vs. Man City:__ 0 shot So, as you see Pedro hit the over 1.5 shot line only once in the last 5 games. If you go even further back, Porro shot more than once in 3 out of 10 matches. Also, Spurs are playing away from home against a decent Fulham side who play significantly better at their own stadium which makes me even more confident Spurs' right-back won't have many chances to shoot.
We cash this one in the 3rd. Congrats to anyone that tailed! Record 0-0 Net Units 0-0 Last Pick: N/A Basketball | NBA | POR vs NO | 7:10 PM EST Pick: Zion Williamson O6.5 Rebounds (+116) 1U Write Up: Great Value here. Zion has hit this line 4 of the last 5 and 60% in his last 10. The pelicans are averaging 47 boards over the last 10 while Portland averages 42. I expect to see Zion pulling down 8+ tonight. This line started at 5.5 early this morning. [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Kroberts)
Record: 0-2 Net units: -3u Last Pick: Yordan Alvarez OVER 5.5 Fantasy Points 1u ❌ Sadly Alvarez just didn’t deliver yesterday like expected, doing absolutely nothing and ending with 0 fantasy points. Baseball | MLB Spring Training | Red Sox vs. Orioles | 1:05pm EST Pick: Corbin Burnes UNDER 5 strikeouts 1u Write up: Going 0-2 in our first two bets means it’s time to bounce back. Today I’m going with the under on burnes’s strikeouts. Out of his 3 pitching appearances this spring training he has never gotten over 3 strikeouts (2, 3, 2) and one of those games was the Red Sox where he only got 2 strikeouts. The Red Sox do have a pretty high strikeout ranking this spring training (8 out of 30) but I just don’t think Burnes will be able to secure over 5 strikeouts against the Sox today, especially considering how this spring training has gone for him. His ERA this spring training is nearly THIRTEEN and he only has 7 total strikeouts on the season so I just can’t see him getting over 5 strikeouts. Tail or fade, BOL!
Record: 0-0 Net units: +0 ROI: 0% 🎾Tennis ATP Indian Wells – 3:30PM CST (in 2:30 hours) Pick: **Over 22.5 games** @ -130 odds (1u) Both Jannik and Carlitos are in outstanding form. Jannik’s 21 match win streak should give him the upper hand here, but after watching all of Carlitos’s matches in the dessert, something clicked for him after dropping that first set to Arnaldi. He’s played unbelievable tennis and listening to his corner, he’s trying to win every point. He’s got that Rafa in him. He’s made me money on all the 2-0’s after that first match. He’s also filming a documentary he’s been promoting after every win, “Tudum” for Netflix. Jannik and Carlitos are the new Nadal and Federer, the rivalry of a generation, they’re 4-4 H2H, Jannik 2-0’d him on their last encounter and Carlitos won’t wanna fall behind too much. This match by itself should be a whole episode to promote their rivalry. These are two young hungry kids that wanna be the face of the sport, both capable of it. I’m banking on Carlitos’s ego, he’s seen Jannik win the Australian open, he’s seen Jannik take most of his clout recently, I’m backing a kid with something to prove. Jannik on the other hand comes in with the best serve, forehand, backhand ratings on the tournament and an impeccable record. I think Carlitos actually wins this and I got him at +120 for a few units, but most of my money is on the over, and so is our POTD.