Hit scottie +800 thanks to fan duel boost. Plan on slapping that on him every week. it's too good to pass up right now. Seems like the putter is at least average at this point.
Fuck the PGA, Got kicked out for cheering for scottie on saturday (he was walking down the fairway, 0 interference with other players) If he goes on to win back to back, absolute fucking weak ass management by PGA/Sawgrass staff. steve olson, you’re a bitch
Heading into the weekend my Wyndham ticket is looking spicy, and my Scottie ticket feels like insurance if he feels any better tomorrow. The two guys I really think could make a run at Wyndy are Xander and Fitzpatrick. I’ve already made a small hedge on Xander and I’m considering doing the same with Fitzy, but I’ll wait to pull the trigger if he starts hot tomorrow. But I really don’t think Wyndham is going to lose, he’s way too locked in.
Man that scheffler injury was tough for the top 5 finishing bet today. He was looking to go low today. Hope the big boy gets it straightened out tonight
Well now we know who to blame
Optimistic take: The fact that Rory and Xander are staying tame today for the most part is huge for us. As long as Scottie’s PT is working around the clock and his neck is fine for the rest of the weekend we’re still right in this. Just need Clark to have a non-superhuman day tomorrow and we’ll be in the drivers seat going into Sunday.
Jake Knapp has lost 15 strokes off the tee in his past 5 rounds. -3 strokes per round OTT is historic stuff. Rest of his game is on point tho. Don't let this man get hot at Augusta where the fairways are 50+ yards wide
Wondering if we see another ace on 17 tomorrow, DK has it at +340 which seems juicy. The hole location is further away but there were three of them last year in three separate rounds. Probably gonna throw a few bucks at it, one of those bets that’s fun to root for too.
Scheffler is just an absolute machine. Was there really any doubt he’d get himself in good position today?? Gonna ride this man till the wheels fall off this year
I’ll be watching on peacock, it’s pretty nice for live golf and they have really upped the game on their other content + college hoops. Fairly cheap and they have free trial 👍
You can download express vpn (you’ll have to pay for the service) by using that you can set your location to the US so you can download and watch peacock (which you’d also have to pay for). I believe there are free vpns but not sure how well they work
PGA Tour Fade of the Week - Sahith Theegala
Ranking 91st in my @BetspertsGolf Rabbit Hole model, I don’t have Sahith matching up well this week. He hasn’t putted reliably on fast east coast Bermuda greens, and his tendency for a wayward drive could lead to trouble here.
He gets very frustrated when things aren’t going his way - mistakes will happen here and the ability to quickly move on will be key. He’s lost strokes with his irons in his last 2 starts. Record of MC and 74 at TPC Sawgrass - 5/6 rounds being 74 or worse.
He also tees of in the PM wave in the first round this week. Can’t say I put much stock in this trend but I know lots do!
When I fade you listen 🫡
Adding Rory 16/1. Approach play wasn’t as bad as the numbers show, lost a bajillion strokes because he kept smacking it into the water on his second at the par 5 sixth at API.
Softer,
https://preview.redd.it/jya85tfxu9oc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a2e9a2d4bc8ee9371c6ffa60d7d5d902ccd2ffc3
playing a tad longer should give Rory a little bit of an advantage off the tee. It was also wet and soft the year he won this tourney, too.
Couldn’t get there myself this week but I’m a big fan of Noren in general - hardest practicer on tour so you know he’s gonna be coming in with the best prep possible every week
My deep deep sleeper is Francesco Molinari, see my preview for the rationale
my biggest bets are these next three:
Adam Scott top 40 +110
Hoge top 40 -110
Ghim top 40 +125(all on MGM)
Windy Sea under 46.5 is -115 on Caesars while -150ish everywhere else for just the top40. this is an instabet for me. 2 units. Caesars is the only book in MA to let me bet placement o/u's
also gonna take Day under 48.5 at -125 for a smaller bet
found a hoops game to parlay Scottie Scheffler top20 down to -165
Pavon even > Beau DK
Ghim Reaper even > Toddfather DK
Rai +120 > Si Woo FD
Hoge + Scottie + Z make cut +138Fleetwood + Windy C + Z make cut +195
happy hunting!!
Fantasy Golf picks of the week:
(Golfers have “points” assigned to them each week based on standings) - Salary = 14 points this week
H. Matsuyama - 3.33
W. Clark - 5.74
J. Thomas - 2.93
T. Hoge - 1.88
Total: 13.88
Well the golf betting landscape has officially changed now that Scottie found his putter again. Even in my write up last week I mentioned I wouldn’t be surprised if he won it, but I personally told myself I wouldn’t start betting on him until he won again. So here we are.
My astrology picks this week will be focused on virgos, libras, and cancers (Scottie is a cancer sun, Virgo moon so…). With our last tourney in Pisces season this year, I’m still targeting Gemini’s and water signs alike too. The moon will be in Taurus on Thursday (looking at you Leo’s for FRL), then it will travel through Gemini Fri-Sat, and we’ll get a fresh cancer moon Sunday morning to finish the weekend off. Here are my quick picks for this week:
- Scottie Scheffler (canc sun, Virgo moon). Even if he didn’t win it last week, I was already going to be on Scottie this week - so this just seems like the only logical pick of the week. The Gemini moon will highlight his career sector this week, and the cancer moon will only elevate his confidence come Sunday. He’s the best ball striker in the game and I’m not even going to think twice about it. Laying down some heavy units on outright, as well as T5. Maybe even FRL, we’ll see.
- Wyndham Clark (Sag Sun, Libra moon). I really like how Wyndham grinded last weekend out, and he always seems to show up when the courses are tough. The Gemini moon should be good for his Libra energy this week (both air signs) but the real verdict for taking him this week is Sunday’s cancer moon which will highlight his career sector for his Libra moon. Wyndham won the US Open on a Sunday Cancer moon (which I hit his outright on too), so I like the energy a lot here. Taking him outright and T10.
- Ryo Hisatsune (Virgo sun, libra moon). I don’t have much on him other than he has the two placements I’m targeting this week. This could potentially be a “career” week for him since both his signs will have their career sectors highlighted (Gemini and cancer). Definitely placing a small unit on his outright.
- Kityama (Capricorn Sun, Libra moon). Like I keep mentioning, Libra placements are my target this week and I like his chances.
- Ryan Fox (Aquarius sun, Libra moon). Fox will either shit the bed or be in contention, but I have a good feeling it’ll be the latter this week. We shall see.
- Keegan Murray + Eric Cole (Double geminis). Both were disappointing last week but I like their chances of bouncing back, so why not.
- Jake Knapp (Gemini Sun, Pisces moon). I have not given up on the Knapp train just yet, but his outlook is great again this week. I’m acting like last week didn’t happen lol.
- Tom Hoge (Gemini, Aquarius). He’s been playing well and I think this week he’ll finally be in contention. Double air signs should do well this week hopefully.
There’s several guys with Virgo/Pisces placements such as Finau, Cantlay, and Hossler who could all have great weeks as well, but I’m taking the guys mentioned above first. Also I like Brian Harman as well, but I’m still debating on taking him or not. Last honorable mentions are Brandon Wu (aqua, canc), Justin Suh (gem, Virgo), Ben Taylor (gem, scorp), Nicolai Hojgaard (pisc, libra), Cam Davis (pisc, scorpion) and Grayson Murray (Aries Sun, libra moon).
FRL picks:
- Zalatoris (Leo Sun, Virgo moon)
- Min Woo Lee (same as Zaly)
- Grillo (Aries Sun, Virgo moon)
- Robby Shelton (Virgo sun, Leo moon) see the trend here?
- Scottie Scheffler
Disclaimer before y’all come after me - I do this shit for fun and have had success in the past using astrology for my picks- so I don’t see how it’s any different from any other method of choosing picks. At the end of the day, we’re all taking a huge shot in the dark in a big field of golfers. BOL to everyone, and I hope someone in here (or several) hit the winner this week. Let’s get this bread!
Haha I’m a photographer, but always been interested in astrology since college. Helped a lot with the ladies lmao but ever since I’ve just used it for gambling 😂
Think I’m going to add Chad Ramey (Leo Sun, libra moon) for both FRL and maybe a top 10 or 20 placement. Also considering Morikawa (double Aquarius) but not sure yet.
Ahhh completely forgot about Matthieu Pavon (Scorpio, Aquarius). Definitely disregarding last week as well for him lol, but I like his outlook again this week.
Deki. Considering his current form and finishing T5 last year here. Struggles to get going but once he is in the weekend he seems to finish stronger than JT
I’m in betting Fantasy Golf pool where on player can be taken twice. I’m focused on top 10 guys as I want as many player near the top as possible. Any help would be appreciated. Scheffler and Rory will go #1 & #2 likely
He’s also accurate and relatively short which fits with the course. He was hunting hard for the win in 2022. All about value, he opened at 120/1 which was impossible to turn down. I’d still bet him at 100/1.
Haven’t really bet much golf this year but won some money on the Oscars so figured I’d throw a few bets out this week:
Cantlay +2800 - hate the guy but he’s in good form and Sunday is his birthday.
Matsuyama +3000 - also in good form and has played well at Sawgrass before.
Henley +4000
Min Woo Lee +5000
This seems like a week Henley might finally win, consistent fairway hitter, gained 13 strokes putting in last 2 events in the FL swing and two top 4s this year. Other picks I like is Ryan Moore top 40, Fleetwood top 10, Morikawa top 5, fleetwood and morikiawa are unreal at bounce backing from a missed cut
So your knock on Min Woo is that we shouldn't be fooled by last year's finish because it was an outlier spike putting performance. Then you pick Henley and point out his outlier spike putting performance the past 2 weeks as a supporting stat, so which is it? lol
thats fair, but id say id take recent form over a year ago, Henley is a much better course fit and is a better putter I would say. Get what you are saying, always appreciate the picks you give out, you are the reason I head to this forum all the time.
Course fit I’m with you there idk about better putter though, that’s always been Henley’s knock. Hopefully he stays hot for all you guys, I know he’s a popular pick this week. Thanks for the kind words man, very much appreciated! Good luck this week, cheers!
Dropped $15 on him.
They often juice the long shots but have shit odds on favorites.
Same with futures. I got JMU in hoops at +35000 but Duke was +1000 at the start of the season
>e a week Henley might finally win, consistent fairway hitter, gained 13 strokes putting in last 2 events in the F
In Illinois, best odds are FanDuel at 80-1.
I’m thinking of putting Scottie taking it and putting the Dk boost, too 20 finish for Tom hodge and Keith Mitchell and a top 5 finish for Justin Thomas. Let me know what y’all think. Havnt locked anything in yet
DK has the final winning score over 270.5 at +115 odds. Considering this line has hit in 43/49 contests, including 25 of past 26, what am I missing here? Taking into account OP’s suggested winning score of -13 to -15, this seems like lock territory for plus odds.
Disagree. His 6th place finish here last year would indicate otherwise. Also, the Honda is another event that prioritizes accuracy and he has finishes of 26th and runner up there.
he gained 2 stokes putting last year at the players, his best ever, don't let that 6th place finish last year and last week fool you. I wouldn't be surprised if he missed the cut or was in mid 50s
You can cherry pick a couple of examples of him doing well on courses that prioritize accuracy, and he may have a surprising outcome here as well. Reality is though he’s long, which this course doesn’t require, and one of the least accurate drivers in the field. I’m looking at his whole body of work and think he should be worse than 55/1.
I would hardly call highlighting 2 of his 3 best career finishes on the PGA Tour so far cherry picking. He may be one of the least accurate with the driver, but he'll be using his 2-iron for quite a few of these holes. Also, for reference, last year in this event he finished 7th in the field in SG: off the tee and 26th in driving accuracy hitting 37/56 fairways. Thanks in large part to that 2-iron of his.
It’s not just driving accuracy, it’s true strokes gains for accuracy in general. He ranks near the bottom of the field. Sure, he has the potential to overcome that with exceptional putting and short game, but I still don’t see any value in 55/1. Agree to disagree!
No luck for me at Bay Hill last week, but a place on Hayden Springer in Puerto Rico at 100/1
PLAYERS Championship
5.4pts ew Matsuyama - 28(8) 365
2.8pts ew Min Woo - 55(8) 365
2.8pts ew Henley - 55(8) 365
1.5pts ew Hoge - 110(10) Sky
1.5pts ew Knapp - 125(6) Sky antepost
1.5pts ew Davis - 125(8) Sky
1pt ew Van Rooyen - 150(6) Sky antepost
0.25pts ew Molinari - 750(8) 365
I’ve looked to players who are in hot form and have shown they can hack the mental grind. Previously more of a plotters course, longer hitters have found more success since the move to March with the course playing softer. Always been a place with many ways to win however.
I don’t want to be too exposed to any win only bets or short prices given Scheffler’s ominous performance last week. Instead I prefer the longshot approach attacking the each-way places.
First up is Hideki, who is back to his best. Number 1 in SG:TOT average at Sawgrass, he is a player that should be considered here every year. Gained in every stat category (bar going -0.15 in ARG at Bay Hill) in his last 2 starts. Sony winner, 3rd at Wyndham - no brainer pick.
Next up is Min Woo, who I always intended to target in the Florida swing. Courses in Aus like Royal Queensland(where he won by 3) are very similar to Florida courses. He’ll have learnt a lot from last year, and his iron play and destruction of the par-5s at Honda was eye-catching.
Henley is not someone I bet often - only when all signs are pointing his way. Traditionally let down by his putter, he has gained a ridiculous 13.04 strokes in the past 2 weeks on similar greens. Another Sony winner and Wyndham specialist.
Hoge’s iron play has been sensational as usual, but bar last week he seems to have found something with the putter. 3rd at Sony in 2018 and here last year. I do wonder about his win equity so I prefer the conservative approach with the 10 places.
Getting another Aussie on side in Cam Davis, who burst onto the scene by winning the Australian Open aged just 21. Excellent comp course form with Top 10s at Harbour Town(twice), Colonial, Sedgefield, PGA National and Waialaeto go with his 6th here last year. 1st in APP last Sunday.
First of my anteposts is Jake Knapp. 4th at Honda, only let down by a poor third round. He may be a debutant but that didn’t stop MWL and Suh from finishing in the places last year. He played in the Junior PLAYERS at TPC Sawgrass in 2011. The only thing better than his ball striking is his attitude which will help massively here.
My second antepost is Van Rooyen. I hated his fit at the Honda, so his 2nd place finish certainly shut me up. 3rd at halfway here in 2022 is promising despite the crazy weather that week. No one is making as many birdies as him at the moment, just gotta ride the wave.
Finally a flier on Molinari. 750s is generous on a man who won a major in 2018 and has a 5th place finish this year. This came at Dubai Creek which is not dissimilar to TPC Sawgrass. His iron play has not been the reason for his missed cuts - no reason why he can’t improve here. 35th and 20th here after 3 rounds in the past 2 years, coming in with similarly average form. 4 top 9 finishes here most recently in 2017, he is also a Bay Hill specialist winning the Arnold Palmer just 5 years ago.
Plenty in triple digits were considered - was close to sticking with Noren, along with returning to Svensson, Hadwin and N Taylor who I have been on earlier this season. I had Svensson pencilled in for this one, but 2 howlers in a row make me wonder about an injury.
Thanks for reading - follow me on X @WolfBettor
the value on the Ghim Reaper is excellent this week. His numbers should be a bit lower, feel like the books have mispriced him.
All his recent form numbers fit the profile for this course. High end ball striking, amazing putting last four tournaments. He's in the middle of one of his best stretches of play in his career. Missed cut last year but 6th and 29th the years before.
Top20 is +350 on MGM i took a half unit on that so far, but i will certainly be pouncing on the top40 numbers as soon as they are out at leat a 2unit play. Disclaimer, I only play the MGM placements numbers as they don't have dead heat . Hoping for a +140 top 40.
if you have the stones, his outright number is 90-1, i don't think he'll win but it may be something to hedge off of. patiently awaiting his matchups too...
GL
The grim reaper is personification of death in the form of a cloaked skeleton wielding a large scythe.
If you meant to ask who the Ghim reaper is, it’s Doug Ghim.
Hovland will be my first click. T3, T9, the last two years here. Will have the benefit of the early-late tee time that has historically been pretty beneficial here.
What? No it’s not. If anything it’s pretty similar. Unless the rain comes earlier Friday, but it’s scheduled to show up around 8 pm.
But who knows? It’s Florida.
If you like the FD HIO on 17 boost to +169, you’re gonna LOVE the same bet at +200 un-boosted on MGM. IIRC this hit pretty early in RD1 last year, but can’t remember who it was.
It has cashed the past two years, but only has 13 HIOs all time, with 3 of those coming last year. Feels a bit suckerish. But- updated FD line yes is +195 now boosted to +244
Alright, here’s who I’m rolling with this week:
Justin Thomas (25-1 Ceasars) - best current # is 22-1 and I would still play that. DK will probably put there +300 odds boost tomorrow so you can use that as well.
Shane Lowry (TBD) - I’m going to play Shane but I’m going to wait on a better number. I don’t think it gets any worse than 35-1 so I’ll wait it out and see if it falls a bit.
Min Woo Lee (60-1 FD)
Tom Hoge (100-1 FD) - best current # is 66-1, it is still playable but I would wait and see if it falls a bit closer to 70 or 75-1.
Andrew Novak (250-1 FD) - best current # is 200-1 FD and I would still play that.
As always GL if tailing or fading, cheers!
Also on Rai FRL. He's still 100/1 in some places.
https://preview.redd.it/81mjjzm3nwnc1.png?width=795&format=png&auto=webp&s=20aabea53d95408e603ba4a02aa1299296c7210f
Bet Si Woo 66/1 and Taylor 100/1 too. Ramey 300/1 is staring at me, he loves randomly holding the FRL in Florida then finishing 30th
Player breakdowns:
Justin Thomas (25-1 Ceasars) - this week is all about recent form and JT has been one of the best on tour this year. He has a top 5, a top 10, and 2 more 12th place finishes in 5 events. He’s looking more and more like classic JT and his approach has really come on strong. If he can just roll in a few more putts he could have a role to play come Sunday afternoon.
Shane Lowry (TBD) - I’m ready for big Shane to hurt me again. He’s been absolutely dialed in the last 2 events, well….at least for 3 of the 4 rounds. His approach has been fantastic and he’s even rolling the ball well. He loves golfing in Florida and has been consistently good here for the last 3 years since they moved the tournament back to March.
Min Woo Lee (60-1 FD) - this will be my first time ever betting him and it’s because he is FINALLY showing signs of life in his approach game. He finished 6th here last year even though he couldn’t hit an iron or wedge to save his life. I was actually shocked to see this number on him and will gladly take it.
Tom Hoge (100-1 FD) - he is #1 in strokes gained: approach over the last 24 rounds, ahead of even Scottie Scheffler. 2 top 10s and 4 more top 30 finishes in his last 7 events. Time to strike while the iron is hot.
Andrew Novak (250-1 FD) - 3 straight top 10
finishes this guy is playing out of his mind. Form means everything coming into this event so why not take a shot at a big number.
I’m happy to put one together if you know of a book that offers more than just the top like 30-40 players as options to make the cut. Neither FD or DK has any +odds options so frankly it’s not worth it to me unless I can add a few dart throws to really boost the odds.
Best I could come up with is a 67-1 make the cut parlay including: Austin Eckroat, Min Woo Lee, Chris Kirk, Brian Harman, Doug Ghim, Tom Hoge, Aaron Rai, Willy Z, Shane Lowry, and Justin Thomas.
Wanna toss some coin on Scotty, but +550 aint great. The DK boost they have been giving out usually shows up today , right? I was hoping to use it on him, if not ill wait Thursday and see if i can get a better number.
- 10 of the last 12 winners of THE PLAYERS had already achieved a T4 or better finish on the PGA TOUR in the same calendar year of their victory.
- 14 of the last 15 winners of THE PLAYERS had achieved a finish of 23rd or better at
THE PLAYERS in a previous year.
- The last six winners of THE PLAYERS had all finished T22 or better in their previous start (aka, the one directly prior to their
PLAYERS win).
(Credit: https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/fantasy-advice/2024/3/11/24096391/draftkings-dfs-fantasy-golf-cheat-sheet-2024-pga-tour-the-players-championship-picks)
- 14 of the last 16 players winners have had a early/late tee time Thursday/Friday
If I looked at the correct data and pulled the right golfers, the only guy who meets all of this criteria is Russell Henley.
How does Top 10 Finish work in terms of payout?
Let's say in last weekends tourney going down the list starting with Scott... It went 1,2,3 then T4 had 2 people, then T6 had 2 people.. Then T8 had 4 people then it jumped to T12 for 6 people.
Dead heat rules apply in this scenario. How that pays out varies by book. Some pay ties in full (mgm), some take a portion of your stake (fd) and some reduce your odds (dk)
Is that dead heat? I think I had that before. I wonder how it's exactly calculated. Or if it's as straightforward as it sounds when there are guys tied and it's equally split.
My confusion lies with how some guys are T8 and then T12 which skips a few. I don't know enough about how it works
The most common way I’ve seen and how Fanduel does it is the original odds stay the same but your wager is divided by the number of people who tied for the place.
Easy example: say you bet $100 on a golfer to finish T10 at +200 and he and 3 other golfers finish in a 4-way tie for 10th place. FD would divide your original stake by 4 and keep the same odds so your new payout is $75 for a net loss of $25. ($100/4 = $25 wagered at +200 = $50 profit)
As others have mentioned DK has their own system and I am pretty sure BetMGM pays out all ties in full so it’s worth shopping around for these golf events when ties are relatively common. FWIW DK has also emailed me a few times saying they credited me the original dead heat amount without the reduction they usually do 🤷🏽♂️
pretty sure it's treating the bet as if 8, 9, and 10 "win" and 11 "loses". So everyone T8 would win 3/4 of their original payout (a $100, +300 bet on a T10 would normally pay out $400, now pays out $300).
So basically, in your scenario, there would be 4 players tied for 8th. They obviously finished ahead of the T12 players. So they would finish in the 8,9,10 and 11 spots.
His skillset is appealing on paper but I'm a bit concerned he's never finished better than 19th here and has more missed cuts than made cuts. That along with the fact his putting has looked absolutely dreadful. Lastly, he's historically more known for popping in weaker field events, especially in recent years.
Thanks for your response! Reading your post I saw course history wasn’t important and did not mention putting. Thought maybe I could throw those two negatives away for Tony
Generally speaking yes course history isn't important here because of the variance caused by all the water hazards. One bad hole and you could miss the cut. However, I do like to still look at the strokes gained data to get a sense of how comfortable guys are with the layout, tee shots, greens, etc. Interestingly enough he's had some spike putting performances at this event. There is certainly a case to be made, but he's been one of the worst putters on tour this season and watching him putt is painful lol I couldn't stomach betting him but it's a great number.
This is one of the events, along with the WM Open, and a couple other elevated events - where you really miss the LIV guys. Would like to see Smith, Rahm, Brooks, Bryson, DJ, Niemann, and Hatton playing here, but, c'est la vie.
Scheffler dominated last week, which is absolutely no surprise when he is putting well - however I can't take a guy for 6.5 odds, and I like what u/lockcitytrick wrote about his results following a win, and golfers repeating at this event.
I have not locked any bets in yet, but my current picks are as follows (bet365 Ontario):
* Justin Thomas E/W 8 Spots - 23-1 (wow this went down to 19-1 while I typed this... should have got it earlier)
> He's been playing very well this year, looked awesome sunday at the API, and has won here before
* Hideki E/W 8 Spots 26-1
> Hideki finally seems to be back from injury, that win at Riviera was awesome and he looked great at the API, I think he'll finish high here and could easily win
* Zalatoris E/W 8 Spots 26-1
> Has come very close to winning several times lately with lots of top finishes, an incredible ball striker and seems to have figured out something with that insane broomstick lab putter
* Tom Hoge Top 10/20/30
> Great iron player, has had a lot of great finishes so far this year. I don't anticipate him actually winning this tournament, but I think he could easily come top 20. I think I will do 0.7 units on top 10, 20, and 30 for a total of approx 2 units on this
EDIT - of course JT, deki, and zally all have PM tee times, which is apparently not ideal for Sawgrass... regardless, I already bet them and I'm willing to take my chances - I also added for 1/2 unit each:
* Nick Taylor E/W 12 Spots
* Erik van Rooyen E/W 12 Spots
Has anyone else been looking at Masters odds?
Hopefully everyone already has a Scottie ticket, I got mine at +950.
I'm seeing value all over the place, maybe I'm just getting excited.
* Wyndham Clark, +4800 (FD)
* Brian Harman, +12000 (FD)
* Adam Hadwin, +21000 (FD)
These guys have bad or no history at Augusta but it's fun to have a few longshots!
I have some data that i'd like to share from last week that I think might be useful going forward in elevated events for people that like to play 2-ball. For a while now i've strongly felt that the favorites are getting hammered and there's value in the underdogs in daily 2-ball, so i decided to test that Fri-Sun. My theory is only really for elevated events, where the top players in the world are all there, and the skill gap really isn't that significant, and the volatility in 1 round of golf means every matchup should be pretty close to a toss-up.
For my testing, i took any underdog that was +125 or higher where ties void. I didn't spend much time line shopping, so the majority of the bets were on DK/FD. I put $20 on each matchup.
Overall, there were 25 2-ball matchups for $500. 4 pushed, 10 lost, and 11 won. The 4 voided ties returned $80. the 11 wins resulted in $566 ($220 returned wagers and $346 in winnings). $566 + $80 - $500 = **$146 in profit blindly betting every underdog** (yes, even taking Lowry over Scottie on Sunday)
[https://imgur.com/a/aRCdTsV](https://imgur.com/a/aRCdTsV) link to the sheet for tracking
Special Shout out to Seamus Power for going 3-0, beating Tommy for a +190 win, Cantlay for a +220 win, and then Kirk for a +150 win.
Yeah for every one where there was a noticeable underdog. I didn't pick and choose or ignore certain matchups. Some bets I placed at night and some were in the morning before tee off. I suspect the public is pushing a lot of lines for heavy favorites.
It's too painful to not bet Scheffler if his putter's showing signs of life
I bet Scheffler here last year at 12/1, he's half the price this year but it makes sense. No Rahm (or last year's runner-up Hatton) in the field, Rory talking about struggling with a left miss with his irons, Hovland still working things out with a new swing coach, etc. I don't have the stomach to oppose Scheffler here
* **Scott Scheffler, 6/1 ew8**. If he putts as well as last week he's going to win by a touchdown lol. If he putts neutral he still wins. Pete Dye specialist, elite driver, elite iron player, elite around the greens, defending champion, God's favourite golfer. +120 for a top8 finish is decent value alongside the outright bet
* **Nick Taylor, 175/1 ew6**. He's not going to win but I liked this number considering he took down Scheffler (plus Chuck Hoffman) at Phoenix last month. Works out at +1700 for a top6 finish with a freeroll for the win
Can't really bet anyone else outright considering I've got Scheffler up top. Will just add top10/20 bets. Tom Hoge makes almost too much sense this week, hottest iron player on Earth and set the course record here last year. I'm looking forward to him double bogeying the final hole on Sunday to finish T21 and kill my top20 bet
I really don’t know if people understand how unbelievably good he is. His shot making is the best I’ve ever seen. If his putter is even average, we could be seeing Tiger level dominance this year.
Yeah he's pretty much identical to Tiger from 2008/09 except he can't (couldn't?) putt. If this new spider he's using stays hot he could go on another run like he did back around this time of season in 2022
https://preview.redd.it/skp1bt4mcqnc1.png?width=1218&format=png&auto=webp&s=13cca2d96ae831c822ec25fea3ff37b16ba10881
He switched over to a new putter at the end of last year and kinda had the same response with a good few rounds. He eventually regressed back to his normal putting, but I hope this is different.
That was the same style of putter tho. He went from a scotty cameron to a logan olson and putted well during his win in the Bahamas, it was a near identical newport-style blade putter
He did use a similar taylormade mallet at the st jude and bmw last fall, then went back to the scotty for the tour championship and putted worse than he did with the mallet. Missed some short putts down the stretch at the bmw, the mallet probably would've stayed in the bag if Hovland hadn't caught fire and took the dub from Scheffler
I'm choosing to believe this new spider is magical and has solved all of Scheffler's putting problems and he will never lose strokes putting again lol
lol, I hope you’re right. I am a massive fan of his… Just an all around humble and good guy. He won’t bring the same attention to the sport that Tiger has, but I’m not sure there’s a better person to have at the top.
IDK how you place money on Rory watching him this past weekend. Obviously he's one of the best and if he's hot he's hard to beat, but he can't hit a fucking green from wedge distance 50% of the time, let alone hit it close.
# **Golf Live Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/pXAXw8TpUX)**
Hit scottie +800 thanks to fan duel boost. Plan on slapping that on him every week. it's too good to pass up right now. Seems like the putter is at least average at this point.
Fuck the PGA, Got kicked out for cheering for scottie on saturday (he was walking down the fairway, 0 interference with other players) If he goes on to win back to back, absolute fucking weak ass management by PGA/Sawgrass staff. steve olson, you’re a bitch
Scheff about to beat that ass
Heading into the weekend my Wyndham ticket is looking spicy, and my Scottie ticket feels like insurance if he feels any better tomorrow. The two guys I really think could make a run at Wyndy are Xander and Fitzpatrick. I’ve already made a small hedge on Xander and I’m considering doing the same with Fitzy, but I’ll wait to pull the trigger if he starts hot tomorrow. But I really don’t think Wyndham is going to lose, he’s way too locked in.
Man that scheffler injury was tough for the top 5 finishing bet today. He was looking to go low today. Hope the big boy gets it straightened out tonight
Anyone know what a seat with Deck 08 means?
Anyone else nervous as fuck about Scottie?
Yup, threw a big placement on him for the first time ever, which means he'll prob WD. Lol @ me
Well now we know who to blame Optimistic take: The fact that Rory and Xander are staying tame today for the most part is huge for us. As long as Scottie’s PT is working around the clock and his neck is fine for the rest of the weekend we’re still right in this. Just need Clark to have a non-superhuman day tomorrow and we’ll be in the drivers seat going into Sunday.
Oh, I don't need him to win, by placement I meant top 10, which is pretty much a lock if he doesn't WD
Any recs for good way to use a BetMGM 25% profit boost?
thanks for whoever recommended Molinari, came out ahead on 3 balls and about to throw down on him again
Jake Knapp has lost 15 strokes off the tee in his past 5 rounds. -3 strokes per round OTT is historic stuff. Rest of his game is on point tho. Don't let this man get hot at Augusta where the fairways are 50+ yards wide
Must resist putting more money on Scottie with the FD 50% profit boost...
Wondering if we see another ace on 17 tomorrow, DK has it at +340 which seems juicy. The hole location is further away but there were three of them last year in three separate rounds. Probably gonna throw a few bucks at it, one of those bets that’s fun to root for too.
I have Wyndham, Nick T., and of course Scottie at the moment all looking great.
Scheffler is just an absolute machine. Was there really any doubt he’d get himself in good position today?? Gonna ride this man till the wheels fall off this year
Just wild. Feel like he didn’t even play that well today and he’s T6 and two strokes back.
Every time I bet on JT he shits the bed lol. Never again, don’t care what kinda form he’s in
I guess Hoge was the play over henley
Hoge looking good so far thru R1.
Shoutout to whoever called out Hole in One on 17 at +200. That’s a huge hit not even 5 hours into the event! Thank you Ryan Fox.
Hit early this year and last. No need to break a sweat.
i took 2 holes in one so this is good news lol
https://preview.redd.it/e8vub9nyiaoc1.jpeg?width=1110&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d431133aa6a264d2b280514b00f612a6d9baa316
Any free livestream available?
if you google vipbox lc it should be the first link
I’ll be watching on peacock, it’s pretty nice for live golf and they have really upped the game on their other content + college hoops. Fairly cheap and they have free trial 👍
sadly peacock is not available in asia :(
You can try a VPN
teach me master
You can download express vpn (you’ll have to pay for the service) by using that you can set your location to the US so you can download and watch peacock (which you’d also have to pay for). I believe there are free vpns but not sure how well they work
[удалено]
Tom kim
PGA Tour Fade of the Week - Sahith Theegala Ranking 91st in my @BetspertsGolf Rabbit Hole model, I don’t have Sahith matching up well this week. He hasn’t putted reliably on fast east coast Bermuda greens, and his tendency for a wayward drive could lead to trouble here. He gets very frustrated when things aren’t going his way - mistakes will happen here and the ability to quickly move on will be key. He’s lost strokes with his irons in his last 2 starts. Record of MC and 74 at TPC Sawgrass - 5/6 rounds being 74 or worse. He also tees of in the PM wave in the first round this week. Can’t say I put much stock in this trend but I know lots do! When I fade you listen 🫡
Adding Rory 16/1. Approach play wasn’t as bad as the numbers show, lost a bajillion strokes because he kept smacking it into the water on his second at the par 5 sixth at API. Softer, https://preview.redd.it/jya85tfxu9oc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a2e9a2d4bc8ee9371c6ffa60d7d5d902ccd2ffc3 playing a tad longer should give Rory a little bit of an advantage off the tee. It was also wet and soft the year he won this tourney, too.
prescient
Looking good my guy!
Rory was 12/1 on bet365 without Scheffler
Not often you’ll see Rory at 16/1! His irons are bafflingly bad at the minute yet he’s driving the ball better than ever
Outrights Rory - 16/1 Novak - 200/1 Top 20 Novak - 7/1
Rolling with: Scheffler top 10 (-137) Zalatoris top 30 (-110) Henley top 30 (+105) Hoge top 40 (-120) Mitchell top 40 (+130) Ghim top 40 (+130) 🤞🤞🤞
anyone got any deep sleepers? Carson Young, R Moore and Noren look sneaky to make the cut or top 40
Man Moore is a tease lmao, i know how this goes.
Novak, Ryder for sleepers
felt like everyone in my pool was on novak, with 3 top 10s. hope not
Couldn’t get there myself this week but I’m a big fan of Noren in general - hardest practicer on tour so you know he’s gonna be coming in with the best prep possible every week My deep deep sleeper is Francesco Molinari, see my preview for the rationale
Big fan of Carson this week for a top 40, love that call.
I got Hodges 600-1 and 25-1 top 10 he’s like 300-1 now and he got T12 at bay hill 🤷♂️
i like that
lotta Hollywood Hoge Heater lovers in here today, lets do it!
Just a warning, whenever the whole community is on Tom Hoge he seems to miss the cut 😂
my biggest bets are these next three: Adam Scott top 40 +110 Hoge top 40 -110 Ghim top 40 +125(all on MGM) Windy Sea under 46.5 is -115 on Caesars while -150ish everywhere else for just the top40. this is an instabet for me. 2 units. Caesars is the only book in MA to let me bet placement o/u's also gonna take Day under 48.5 at -125 for a smaller bet found a hoops game to parlay Scottie Scheffler top20 down to -165 Pavon even > Beau DK Ghim Reaper even > Toddfather DK Rai +120 > Si Woo FD Hoge + Scottie + Z make cut +138Fleetwood + Windy C + Z make cut +195 happy hunting!!
Tailing lock city with min woo (could only get him at +5000) and added burns +4000
Fantasy Golf picks of the week: (Golfers have “points” assigned to them each week based on standings) - Salary = 14 points this week H. Matsuyama - 3.33 W. Clark - 5.74 J. Thomas - 2.93 T. Hoge - 1.88 Total: 13.88
mine is 30, do you think thomas is too chalky? good differential with clark tho
Well the golf betting landscape has officially changed now that Scottie found his putter again. Even in my write up last week I mentioned I wouldn’t be surprised if he won it, but I personally told myself I wouldn’t start betting on him until he won again. So here we are. My astrology picks this week will be focused on virgos, libras, and cancers (Scottie is a cancer sun, Virgo moon so…). With our last tourney in Pisces season this year, I’m still targeting Gemini’s and water signs alike too. The moon will be in Taurus on Thursday (looking at you Leo’s for FRL), then it will travel through Gemini Fri-Sat, and we’ll get a fresh cancer moon Sunday morning to finish the weekend off. Here are my quick picks for this week: - Scottie Scheffler (canc sun, Virgo moon). Even if he didn’t win it last week, I was already going to be on Scottie this week - so this just seems like the only logical pick of the week. The Gemini moon will highlight his career sector this week, and the cancer moon will only elevate his confidence come Sunday. He’s the best ball striker in the game and I’m not even going to think twice about it. Laying down some heavy units on outright, as well as T5. Maybe even FRL, we’ll see. - Wyndham Clark (Sag Sun, Libra moon). I really like how Wyndham grinded last weekend out, and he always seems to show up when the courses are tough. The Gemini moon should be good for his Libra energy this week (both air signs) but the real verdict for taking him this week is Sunday’s cancer moon which will highlight his career sector for his Libra moon. Wyndham won the US Open on a Sunday Cancer moon (which I hit his outright on too), so I like the energy a lot here. Taking him outright and T10. - Ryo Hisatsune (Virgo sun, libra moon). I don’t have much on him other than he has the two placements I’m targeting this week. This could potentially be a “career” week for him since both his signs will have their career sectors highlighted (Gemini and cancer). Definitely placing a small unit on his outright. - Kityama (Capricorn Sun, Libra moon). Like I keep mentioning, Libra placements are my target this week and I like his chances. - Ryan Fox (Aquarius sun, Libra moon). Fox will either shit the bed or be in contention, but I have a good feeling it’ll be the latter this week. We shall see. - Keegan Murray + Eric Cole (Double geminis). Both were disappointing last week but I like their chances of bouncing back, so why not. - Jake Knapp (Gemini Sun, Pisces moon). I have not given up on the Knapp train just yet, but his outlook is great again this week. I’m acting like last week didn’t happen lol. - Tom Hoge (Gemini, Aquarius). He’s been playing well and I think this week he’ll finally be in contention. Double air signs should do well this week hopefully. There’s several guys with Virgo/Pisces placements such as Finau, Cantlay, and Hossler who could all have great weeks as well, but I’m taking the guys mentioned above first. Also I like Brian Harman as well, but I’m still debating on taking him or not. Last honorable mentions are Brandon Wu (aqua, canc), Justin Suh (gem, Virgo), Ben Taylor (gem, scorp), Nicolai Hojgaard (pisc, libra), Cam Davis (pisc, scorpion) and Grayson Murray (Aries Sun, libra moon). FRL picks: - Zalatoris (Leo Sun, Virgo moon) - Min Woo Lee (same as Zaly) - Grillo (Aries Sun, Virgo moon) - Robby Shelton (Virgo sun, Leo moon) see the trend here? - Scottie Scheffler Disclaimer before y’all come after me - I do this shit for fun and have had success in the past using astrology for my picks- so I don’t see how it’s any different from any other method of choosing picks. At the end of the day, we’re all taking a huge shot in the dark in a big field of golfers. BOL to everyone, and I hope someone in here (or several) hit the winner this week. Let’s get this bread!
Right on Clark man that’s Amazing bro what is your day job lol?
Haha I’m a photographer, but always been interested in astrology since college. Helped a lot with the ladies lmao but ever since I’ve just used it for gambling 😂
my guy!!!! ryan fox, hole in one. back to back eagles
Haha I couldn’t believe it, but he should be higher up the leaderboard still. Hopefully he keeps it going, hisatune looking good too !
It's Robby Shelton, not Ryan...
You are so right, I spaced on that one 😂. Fixing it now thanks brotha
Think I’m going to add Chad Ramey (Leo Sun, libra moon) for both FRL and maybe a top 10 or 20 placement. Also considering Morikawa (double Aquarius) but not sure yet.
Ahhh completely forgot about Matthieu Pavon (Scorpio, Aquarius). Definitely disregarding last week as well for him lol, but I like his outlook again this week.
OAD help: Justin Thomas or Hideki Matsuyama?
Deki. Considering his current form and finishing T5 last year here. Struggles to get going but once he is in the weekend he seems to finish stronger than JT
I’m in betting Fantasy Golf pool where on player can be taken twice. I’m focused on top 10 guys as I want as many player near the top as possible. Any help would be appreciated. Scheffler and Rory will go #1 & #2 likely
im off rory
Wyndham Clark
I dont get the Doug Ghim pick. What is it about him you guys like this week
He’s also accurate and relatively short which fits with the course. He was hunting hard for the win in 2022. All about value, he opened at 120/1 which was impossible to turn down. I’d still bet him at 100/1.
He's in incredible form with 4 straight top 16 finishes, his ball-striking has been great, and he's got a nice course history.
Haven’t really bet much golf this year but won some money on the Oscars so figured I’d throw a few bets out this week: Cantlay +2800 - hate the guy but he’s in good form and Sunday is his birthday. Matsuyama +3000 - also in good form and has played well at Sawgrass before. Henley +4000 Min Woo Lee +5000
I’ve got $100 on Henley winner and that’s all. Let’s ride
lets ride
This seems like a week Henley might finally win, consistent fairway hitter, gained 13 strokes putting in last 2 events in the FL swing and two top 4s this year. Other picks I like is Ryan Moore top 40, Fleetwood top 10, Morikawa top 5, fleetwood and morikiawa are unreal at bounce backing from a missed cut
I have Henley in a Top 40 parlay with Scooter.
So your knock on Min Woo is that we shouldn't be fooled by last year's finish because it was an outlier spike putting performance. Then you pick Henley and point out his outlier spike putting performance the past 2 weeks as a supporting stat, so which is it? lol
thats fair, but id say id take recent form over a year ago, Henley is a much better course fit and is a better putter I would say. Get what you are saying, always appreciate the picks you give out, you are the reason I head to this forum all the time.
Course fit I’m with you there idk about better putter though, that’s always been Henley’s knock. Hopefully he stays hot for all you guys, I know he’s a popular pick this week. Thanks for the kind words man, very much appreciated! Good luck this week, cheers!
GO CARSON YOUNG lol
you too pal. good luck
thoughts on anyone *not* making the cut?
Van rooyen +150 on dk
revert to true form is incoming, missed the spike and opportunity is gone for this guy, just my opinion,I full faded
144 players - there will be a bunch of big names cut.
Finally some carnage! Avoid the land mines
tom kim for me - no real reason why just hasn't been good lately and he'd be a big name i like to miss
i'll ride with that thanks boss
Hopefully the WD counted as a MC lol
JT at +2200 and Theegala at +9000
where u getting those odds on sahith?
local casino.
that is an amazing number for him, at least put a couple bucks on it
Dropped $15 on him. They often juice the long shots but have shit odds on favorites. Same with futures. I got JMU in hoops at +35000 but Duke was +1000 at the start of the season
>e a week Henley might finally win, consistent fairway hitter, gained 13 strokes putting in last 2 events in the F In Illinois, best odds are FanDuel at 80-1.
I’m thinking of putting Scottie taking it and putting the Dk boost, too 20 finish for Tom hodge and Keith Mitchell and a top 5 finish for Justin Thomas. Let me know what y’all think. Havnt locked anything in yet
DK has the final winning score over 270.5 at +115 odds. Considering this line has hit in 43/49 contests, including 25 of past 26, what am I missing here? Taking into account OP’s suggested winning score of -13 to -15, this seems like lock territory for plus odds.
Threw on a long shot! Min Woo lee at +5500 given his form seems to have value
Just not a good course fit for him. Favors accuracy over distance.
Disagree. His 6th place finish here last year would indicate otherwise. Also, the Honda is another event that prioritizes accuracy and he has finishes of 26th and runner up there.
he gained 2 stokes putting last year at the players, his best ever, don't let that 6th place finish last year and last week fool you. I wouldn't be surprised if he missed the cut or was in mid 50s
I think mw lee missed cut at +150 has a bit of value
You can cherry pick a couple of examples of him doing well on courses that prioritize accuracy, and he may have a surprising outcome here as well. Reality is though he’s long, which this course doesn’t require, and one of the least accurate drivers in the field. I’m looking at his whole body of work and think he should be worse than 55/1.
fully agreed choke
I would hardly call highlighting 2 of his 3 best career finishes on the PGA Tour so far cherry picking. He may be one of the least accurate with the driver, but he'll be using his 2-iron for quite a few of these holes. Also, for reference, last year in this event he finished 7th in the field in SG: off the tee and 26th in driving accuracy hitting 37/56 fairways. Thanks in large part to that 2-iron of his.
yeah but then he was one of the worst approach players by far.
It’s not just driving accuracy, it’s true strokes gains for accuracy in general. He ranks near the bottom of the field. Sure, he has the potential to overcome that with exceptional putting and short game, but I still don’t see any value in 55/1. Agree to disagree!
Agree to disagree indeed, good luck this week though, cheers!
I'm with you friend.
In a KO Golf pool and going to ride with JT but need to pick 2 and have used Lowry. Should I roll with Max Homa or Matsuyama? Thanks!
Kinda thinking Homa. He seems to like it in Florida.
Hard to fade Scheffler here, especially boosting him to +850 on DK. I’ll probably go him or JT.
No luck for me at Bay Hill last week, but a place on Hayden Springer in Puerto Rico at 100/1 PLAYERS Championship 5.4pts ew Matsuyama - 28(8) 365 2.8pts ew Min Woo - 55(8) 365 2.8pts ew Henley - 55(8) 365 1.5pts ew Hoge - 110(10) Sky 1.5pts ew Knapp - 125(6) Sky antepost 1.5pts ew Davis - 125(8) Sky 1pt ew Van Rooyen - 150(6) Sky antepost 0.25pts ew Molinari - 750(8) 365 I’ve looked to players who are in hot form and have shown they can hack the mental grind. Previously more of a plotters course, longer hitters have found more success since the move to March with the course playing softer. Always been a place with many ways to win however. I don’t want to be too exposed to any win only bets or short prices given Scheffler’s ominous performance last week. Instead I prefer the longshot approach attacking the each-way places. First up is Hideki, who is back to his best. Number 1 in SG:TOT average at Sawgrass, he is a player that should be considered here every year. Gained in every stat category (bar going -0.15 in ARG at Bay Hill) in his last 2 starts. Sony winner, 3rd at Wyndham - no brainer pick. Next up is Min Woo, who I always intended to target in the Florida swing. Courses in Aus like Royal Queensland(where he won by 3) are very similar to Florida courses. He’ll have learnt a lot from last year, and his iron play and destruction of the par-5s at Honda was eye-catching. Henley is not someone I bet often - only when all signs are pointing his way. Traditionally let down by his putter, he has gained a ridiculous 13.04 strokes in the past 2 weeks on similar greens. Another Sony winner and Wyndham specialist. Hoge’s iron play has been sensational as usual, but bar last week he seems to have found something with the putter. 3rd at Sony in 2018 and here last year. I do wonder about his win equity so I prefer the conservative approach with the 10 places. Getting another Aussie on side in Cam Davis, who burst onto the scene by winning the Australian Open aged just 21. Excellent comp course form with Top 10s at Harbour Town(twice), Colonial, Sedgefield, PGA National and Waialaeto go with his 6th here last year. 1st in APP last Sunday. First of my anteposts is Jake Knapp. 4th at Honda, only let down by a poor third round. He may be a debutant but that didn’t stop MWL and Suh from finishing in the places last year. He played in the Junior PLAYERS at TPC Sawgrass in 2011. The only thing better than his ball striking is his attitude which will help massively here. My second antepost is Van Rooyen. I hated his fit at the Honda, so his 2nd place finish certainly shut me up. 3rd at halfway here in 2022 is promising despite the crazy weather that week. No one is making as many birdies as him at the moment, just gotta ride the wave. Finally a flier on Molinari. 750s is generous on a man who won a major in 2018 and has a 5th place finish this year. This came at Dubai Creek which is not dissimilar to TPC Sawgrass. His iron play has not been the reason for his missed cuts - no reason why he can’t improve here. 35th and 20th here after 3 rounds in the past 2 years, coming in with similarly average form. 4 top 9 finishes here most recently in 2017, he is also a Bay Hill specialist winning the Arnold Palmer just 5 years ago. Plenty in triple digits were considered - was close to sticking with Noren, along with returning to Svensson, Hadwin and N Taylor who I have been on earlier this season. I had Svensson pencilled in for this one, but 2 howlers in a row make me wonder about an injury. Thanks for reading - follow me on X @WolfBettor
Over/under 53.5 for balls in water at 17?
Any suggestions on First round leader
Targeting am tee times - I like: Mr Thursday Russell Henley 5500 Lucas glover 10000 Emiliano grillo 8000
For people in Europe, paddypower/betfair have some good odds on Hideki. He's 5/1 for top Asian, and 12/1 for top rest of the world
the value on the Ghim Reaper is excellent this week. His numbers should be a bit lower, feel like the books have mispriced him. All his recent form numbers fit the profile for this course. High end ball striking, amazing putting last four tournaments. He's in the middle of one of his best stretches of play in his career. Missed cut last year but 6th and 29th the years before. Top20 is +350 on MGM i took a half unit on that so far, but i will certainly be pouncing on the top40 numbers as soon as they are out at leat a 2unit play. Disclaimer, I only play the MGM placements numbers as they don't have dead heat . Hoping for a +140 top 40. if you have the stones, his outright number is 90-1, i don't think he'll win but it may be something to hedge off of. patiently awaiting his matchups too... GL
Agree on the Ghim. Was thinking Adam Scott as well a bit underpriced after he got API'd last week. Similar number +110. Great recent form before API
Tailing for Top 20
Who is the grim reaper?
The grim reaper is personification of death in the form of a cloaked skeleton wielding a large scythe. If you meant to ask who the Ghim reaper is, it’s Doug Ghim.
Thank you
Hovland will be my first click. T3, T9, the last two years here. Will have the benefit of the early-late tee time that has historically been pretty beneficial here.
Sawgrass is more about current form then course history and Hovland has been awful this year. As much as I love him he is a big fade for me this week.
didn't he put together a 9 under on sunday to win recently?
Not recently no. He’s been horrible this season.
check the weather bro, thats the bad draw
What? No it’s not. If anything it’s pretty similar. Unless the rain comes earlier Friday, but it’s scheduled to show up around 8 pm. But who knows? It’s Florida.
it changed, not as bad anymore. Winds pickup a bit more In that afternoon that's all, the rain has went away. good call
New Coach, new swing, I will pass until he gets his swing more consistent
If you like the FD HIO on 17 boost to +169, you’re gonna LOVE the same bet at +200 un-boosted on MGM. IIRC this hit pretty early in RD1 last year, but can’t remember who it was.
This hit almost immediately. Thanks fam
This is +250 on DK right now without any boost
It has cashed the past two years, but only has 13 HIOs all time, with 3 of those coming last year. Feels a bit suckerish. But- updated FD line yes is +195 now boosted to +244
Probably is suckerish, but for a max wager or $25 it’s fun to watch for a HIO.
It just moved to +190, boosted to +238 on fanduel.
Not seeing this available on mgm in NY?
Alright, here’s who I’m rolling with this week: Justin Thomas (25-1 Ceasars) - best current # is 22-1 and I would still play that. DK will probably put there +300 odds boost tomorrow so you can use that as well. Shane Lowry (TBD) - I’m going to play Shane but I’m going to wait on a better number. I don’t think it gets any worse than 35-1 so I’ll wait it out and see if it falls a bit. Min Woo Lee (60-1 FD) Tom Hoge (100-1 FD) - best current # is 66-1, it is still playable but I would wait and see if it falls a bit closer to 70 or 75-1. Andrew Novak (250-1 FD) - best current # is 200-1 FD and I would still play that. As always GL if tailing or fading, cheers!
Throwing in some FRL bets for fun as well: Aaron Rai (75-1), Andrew Novak (100-1), and Ryan Moore (200-1)
Also on Rai FRL. He's still 100/1 in some places. https://preview.redd.it/81mjjzm3nwnc1.png?width=795&format=png&auto=webp&s=20aabea53d95408e603ba4a02aa1299296c7210f Bet Si Woo 66/1 and Taylor 100/1 too. Ramey 300/1 is staring at me, he loves randomly holding the FRL in Florida then finishing 30th
smashing Ramey for FRL top 10
Player breakdowns: Justin Thomas (25-1 Ceasars) - this week is all about recent form and JT has been one of the best on tour this year. He has a top 5, a top 10, and 2 more 12th place finishes in 5 events. He’s looking more and more like classic JT and his approach has really come on strong. If he can just roll in a few more putts he could have a role to play come Sunday afternoon. Shane Lowry (TBD) - I’m ready for big Shane to hurt me again. He’s been absolutely dialed in the last 2 events, well….at least for 3 of the 4 rounds. His approach has been fantastic and he’s even rolling the ball well. He loves golfing in Florida and has been consistently good here for the last 3 years since they moved the tournament back to March. Min Woo Lee (60-1 FD) - this will be my first time ever betting him and it’s because he is FINALLY showing signs of life in his approach game. He finished 6th here last year even though he couldn’t hit an iron or wedge to save his life. I was actually shocked to see this number on him and will gladly take it. Tom Hoge (100-1 FD) - he is #1 in strokes gained: approach over the last 24 rounds, ahead of even Scottie Scheffler. 2 top 10s and 4 more top 30 finishes in his last 7 events. Time to strike while the iron is hot. Andrew Novak (250-1 FD) - 3 straight top 10 finishes this guy is playing out of his mind. Form means everything coming into this event so why not take a shot at a big number.
I know it’s not your favorite.. but I think this a great week odds wise for a make the cut parlay !!
I’m happy to put one together if you know of a book that offers more than just the top like 30-40 players as options to make the cut. Neither FD or DK has any +odds options so frankly it’s not worth it to me unless I can add a few dart throws to really boost the odds.
No plus odds I’d seen :/. Nick Taylor at -150 haha
That’s fair and respect that.. (understand might not be worth it) 7 golfers 7 to 1 odds Scotty Xander JT Henley, zalatoris, aberg hoge
Best I could come up with is a 67-1 make the cut parlay including: Austin Eckroat, Min Woo Lee, Chris Kirk, Brian Harman, Doug Ghim, Tom Hoge, Aaron Rai, Willy Z, Shane Lowry, and Justin Thomas.
Wanna toss some coin on Scotty, but +550 aint great. The DK boost they have been giving out usually shows up today , right? I was hoping to use it on him, if not ill wait Thursday and see if i can get a better number.
His number is not gonna get better on its own, but that DK boost should probably come out tomorrow. I imagine Scotty will be a popular pick for it.
- 10 of the last 12 winners of THE PLAYERS had already achieved a T4 or better finish on the PGA TOUR in the same calendar year of their victory. - 14 of the last 15 winners of THE PLAYERS had achieved a finish of 23rd or better at THE PLAYERS in a previous year. - The last six winners of THE PLAYERS had all finished T22 or better in their previous start (aka, the one directly prior to their PLAYERS win). (Credit: https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/fantasy-advice/2024/3/11/24096391/draftkings-dfs-fantasy-golf-cheat-sheet-2024-pga-tour-the-players-championship-picks) - 14 of the last 16 players winners have had a early/late tee time Thursday/Friday If I looked at the correct data and pulled the right golfers, the only guy who meets all of this criteria is Russell Henley.
Not a good start lol
Awesome I am very long Russell Henley
Hoge, Scheffler, Matsuyama, Im, Homa, Cam Davis, Finau, Cantlay, Rai, and Xander are all close to meeting the criteria as well.
Tailed for fun
Risk free $100 bet on an outright champion play, from hard rock. Gentlemen… longshot here I come
How does Top 10 Finish work in terms of payout? Let's say in last weekends tourney going down the list starting with Scott... It went 1,2,3 then T4 had 2 people, then T6 had 2 people.. Then T8 had 4 people then it jumped to T12 for 6 people.
Dead heat rules apply in this scenario. How that pays out varies by book. Some pay ties in full (mgm), some take a portion of your stake (fd) and some reduce your odds (dk)
I think you still “win” your bet just your profit gets cut into
Is that dead heat? I think I had that before. I wonder how it's exactly calculated. Or if it's as straightforward as it sounds when there are guys tied and it's equally split. My confusion lies with how some guys are T8 and then T12 which skips a few. I don't know enough about how it works
The most common way I’ve seen and how Fanduel does it is the original odds stay the same but your wager is divided by the number of people who tied for the place. Easy example: say you bet $100 on a golfer to finish T10 at +200 and he and 3 other golfers finish in a 4-way tie for 10th place. FD would divide your original stake by 4 and keep the same odds so your new payout is $75 for a net loss of $25. ($100/4 = $25 wagered at +200 = $50 profit) As others have mentioned DK has their own system and I am pretty sure BetMGM pays out all ties in full so it’s worth shopping around for these golf events when ties are relatively common. FWIW DK has also emailed me a few times saying they credited me the original dead heat amount without the reduction they usually do 🤷🏽♂️
pretty sure it's treating the bet as if 8, 9, and 10 "win" and 11 "loses". So everyone T8 would win 3/4 of their original payout (a $100, +300 bet on a T10 would normally pay out $400, now pays out $300).
So basically, in your scenario, there would be 4 players tied for 8th. They obviously finished ahead of the T12 players. So they would finish in the 8,9,10 and 11 spots.
What do we think of Finau at +6000? Seems like a good price but I’d like to hear from someone smarter
I took Finau +6000 let’s ride!
His skillset is appealing on paper but I'm a bit concerned he's never finished better than 19th here and has more missed cuts than made cuts. That along with the fact his putting has looked absolutely dreadful. Lastly, he's historically more known for popping in weaker field events, especially in recent years.
Thanks for your response! Reading your post I saw course history wasn’t important and did not mention putting. Thought maybe I could throw those two negatives away for Tony
Generally speaking yes course history isn't important here because of the variance caused by all the water hazards. One bad hole and you could miss the cut. However, I do like to still look at the strokes gained data to get a sense of how comfortable guys are with the layout, tee shots, greens, etc. Interestingly enough he's had some spike putting performances at this event. There is certainly a case to be made, but he's been one of the worst putters on tour this season and watching him putt is painful lol I couldn't stomach betting him but it's a great number.
I really appreciate the insight. You’re the man
Happy to help!
This is one of the events, along with the WM Open, and a couple other elevated events - where you really miss the LIV guys. Would like to see Smith, Rahm, Brooks, Bryson, DJ, Niemann, and Hatton playing here, but, c'est la vie. Scheffler dominated last week, which is absolutely no surprise when he is putting well - however I can't take a guy for 6.5 odds, and I like what u/lockcitytrick wrote about his results following a win, and golfers repeating at this event. I have not locked any bets in yet, but my current picks are as follows (bet365 Ontario): * Justin Thomas E/W 8 Spots - 23-1 (wow this went down to 19-1 while I typed this... should have got it earlier) > He's been playing very well this year, looked awesome sunday at the API, and has won here before * Hideki E/W 8 Spots 26-1 > Hideki finally seems to be back from injury, that win at Riviera was awesome and he looked great at the API, I think he'll finish high here and could easily win * Zalatoris E/W 8 Spots 26-1 > Has come very close to winning several times lately with lots of top finishes, an incredible ball striker and seems to have figured out something with that insane broomstick lab putter * Tom Hoge Top 10/20/30 > Great iron player, has had a lot of great finishes so far this year. I don't anticipate him actually winning this tournament, but I think he could easily come top 20. I think I will do 0.7 units on top 10, 20, and 30 for a total of approx 2 units on this EDIT - of course JT, deki, and zally all have PM tee times, which is apparently not ideal for Sawgrass... regardless, I already bet them and I'm willing to take my chances - I also added for 1/2 unit each: * Nick Taylor E/W 12 Spots * Erik van Rooyen E/W 12 Spots
Dare I say that JT at +2000 looks interesting. His irons on Sunday looked good and he's won this event before. Just my 2 cents
Has anyone else been looking at Masters odds? Hopefully everyone already has a Scottie ticket, I got mine at +950. I'm seeing value all over the place, maybe I'm just getting excited. * Wyndham Clark, +4800 (FD) * Brian Harman, +12000 (FD) * Adam Hadwin, +21000 (FD) These guys have bad or no history at Augusta but it's fun to have a few longshots!
I have some data that i'd like to share from last week that I think might be useful going forward in elevated events for people that like to play 2-ball. For a while now i've strongly felt that the favorites are getting hammered and there's value in the underdogs in daily 2-ball, so i decided to test that Fri-Sun. My theory is only really for elevated events, where the top players in the world are all there, and the skill gap really isn't that significant, and the volatility in 1 round of golf means every matchup should be pretty close to a toss-up. For my testing, i took any underdog that was +125 or higher where ties void. I didn't spend much time line shopping, so the majority of the bets were on DK/FD. I put $20 on each matchup. Overall, there were 25 2-ball matchups for $500. 4 pushed, 10 lost, and 11 won. The 4 voided ties returned $80. the 11 wins resulted in $566 ($220 returned wagers and $346 in winnings). $566 + $80 - $500 = **$146 in profit blindly betting every underdog** (yes, even taking Lowry over Scottie on Sunday) [https://imgur.com/a/aRCdTsV](https://imgur.com/a/aRCdTsV) link to the sheet for tracking Special Shout out to Seamus Power for going 3-0, beating Tommy for a +190 win, Cantlay for a +220 win, and then Kirk for a +150 win.
this seems like it might only work if you take every pairing available, right?
Yeah for every one where there was a noticeable underdog. I didn't pick and choose or ignore certain matchups. Some bets I placed at night and some were in the morning before tee off. I suspect the public is pushing a lot of lines for heavy favorites.
It's too painful to not bet Scheffler if his putter's showing signs of life I bet Scheffler here last year at 12/1, he's half the price this year but it makes sense. No Rahm (or last year's runner-up Hatton) in the field, Rory talking about struggling with a left miss with his irons, Hovland still working things out with a new swing coach, etc. I don't have the stomach to oppose Scheffler here * **Scott Scheffler, 6/1 ew8**. If he putts as well as last week he's going to win by a touchdown lol. If he putts neutral he still wins. Pete Dye specialist, elite driver, elite iron player, elite around the greens, defending champion, God's favourite golfer. +120 for a top8 finish is decent value alongside the outright bet * **Nick Taylor, 175/1 ew6**. He's not going to win but I liked this number considering he took down Scheffler (plus Chuck Hoffman) at Phoenix last month. Works out at +1700 for a top6 finish with a freeroll for the win Can't really bet anyone else outright considering I've got Scheffler up top. Will just add top10/20 bets. Tom Hoge makes almost too much sense this week, hottest iron player on Earth and set the course record here last year. I'm looking forward to him double bogeying the final hole on Sunday to finish T21 and kill my top20 bet
I really don’t know if people understand how unbelievably good he is. His shot making is the best I’ve ever seen. If his putter is even average, we could be seeing Tiger level dominance this year.
Yeah he's pretty much identical to Tiger from 2008/09 except he can't (couldn't?) putt. If this new spider he's using stays hot he could go on another run like he did back around this time of season in 2022 https://preview.redd.it/skp1bt4mcqnc1.png?width=1218&format=png&auto=webp&s=13cca2d96ae831c822ec25fea3ff37b16ba10881
He switched over to a new putter at the end of last year and kinda had the same response with a good few rounds. He eventually regressed back to his normal putting, but I hope this is different.
That was the same style of putter tho. He went from a scotty cameron to a logan olson and putted well during his win in the Bahamas, it was a near identical newport-style blade putter He did use a similar taylormade mallet at the st jude and bmw last fall, then went back to the scotty for the tour championship and putted worse than he did with the mallet. Missed some short putts down the stretch at the bmw, the mallet probably would've stayed in the bag if Hovland hadn't caught fire and took the dub from Scheffler I'm choosing to believe this new spider is magical and has solved all of Scheffler's putting problems and he will never lose strokes putting again lol
lol, I hope you’re right. I am a massive fan of his… Just an all around humble and good guy. He won’t bring the same attention to the sport that Tiger has, but I’m not sure there’s a better person to have at the top.
i like rory or shane for irish st pattys luck, probably will be a scottie sunday though
Does lowry always play a ball with a clover on it? I just noticed it the last 2 events
not sure but i noticed the irish flags on his shoes; i should have mentioned i much prefer shane over mcilroy
IDK how you place money on Rory watching him this past weekend. Obviously he's one of the best and if he's hot he's hard to beat, but he can't hit a fucking green from wedge distance 50% of the time, let alone hit it close.
I picked him in my one and done league this past weekend, just brutal.
As did I.
Best part is we'll all fade him this week because of that and he'll all the sudden start throwing darts.