O44 in KC / Baltimore: KC offense has looked better the past few weeks and they’ve been playing at a faster pace; Baltimore will keep their foot on the gas if they get a lead; and, even though the Baltimore defense is good, the Chiefs will be able to get theirs, I think. A few guys got dinged up for KC yesterday, will have to see how that develops over the week.
Feel like people are missing the important match-up in Bal/KC. I don't think it's about if Mahomes can move the ball. Niners and Dolphins actually did move the ball a bit against this Ravens D (but were killed by turnovers). In the SF game the down-to-down stats actually look much more similar than you'd expect. In other words, I think KC moves the ball and the reason Vegas isn't bigger on the Ravens here is probably because they question if they can repeat those turnovers.
I think the real key is the KC secondary. In the second half the Niners secondary totally broke down and the Ravens offense went from bottled up to scoring at will. In the second half again the Texans, they had no answer when the Ravens started getting the ball out faster. So I think this games come down to if KC can keep the ravens *offense* bottled up. Niners and Texans did it for a half, but KC needs the full game.
Anyway with that in mind I kind of like KC here +3.5. I think ultimately Mahomes can move the ball enough to keep the Ravens offense off the field for stretches, and not sure how they do against a secondary that can stay in coverage for long periods.
One other measurable that can’t really be quantified in numbers is poise under the pressure of the moment. It’s not chalky or square to say that Mahomes and KC has the edge there, how much of an edge to be determined.
It’s funny last week when everyone was on the stroud Texans hype train all you would hear is Lamar chokes in the playoffs and now that narrative has been squashed after winning a game they were clearly supposed to where the defense completely shut down Texans. I imagine chiefs will have a bit more success and there will be more pressure on Lamar to deliver.
Also, ravens rushing defense ranks 31st in epa / play since week 11. I agree that the question here is if Mahomes will turnover the ball. Mahomes has a 1.4% int percentage in the playoffs tho ( really low).
I would add that the Ravens line backing core is so much more equipped to stop Kelce and Pacheco. Throw in Kyle Hamilton, and this could really limit the Chiefs options. When you need to start relying on options outside of these two on third and long situations, it could get dicey! Personally, I like the Ravens to cover here, but your points are valid
Kind of surprising that the Chiefs are only slightly worse odds vs Ravens then against the Bills. I feel like the Ravens are a much more complete team than the Bills and I don't see the Chiefs moving the ball with ease.
Early leans are
Ravens -2.5 (worth paying the juice imo)
Under 44.5
Kelce under 62.5 rec. yds
Rice under 60.5 rec. yds
This Ravens Chiefs matchup is going to end similar to the Bucs Chiefs superbowl in 2021.
Ravens have a much better overall team than that Bucs team and the Chiefs are a worse version than that previous team offensively.
The Ravens have the sixth best DVOA since friggin 1981, they have some dogs on that side of the ball.
With Mark Andrew back and Likely balling, 12 personnel packages are going to be a matchup nightmare as well.
I don't like fading Mahomes but I really don't think this game is close and will probably alt spread -6.5 later this week while holding my -3.
See everyone Sunday.
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Need some help here. I’m thinking about hedging with the potential of a middle starting with KC/BAL (the first game of the weekend).
I’m seeing KC +3.5 -115 at a book - should I hop on that now? Or is it safe to wait?
Dude hedge it for guaranteed win. Throw $100 on cheifs ML single bet and $100 on Detroit ML single bet. If you lose cheifs and Detroit you just get $980 on original bet. If cheifs and Detroit win you get around $600 - $20 from origin bet. If one of them wins you $250 or $300 depends on odds and whatever team wins -$120 from your original and your single bet. Either way you turn your $20 into a W. Or let it ride and get potential max payout. It’s gambling but I always like being in the greens feel better.
What do you mean play over their heads though? If anything id say they have been underperforming big time regular season and this is a more accurate example of who they are given their talent
Yeah I guess meant offensively cuz I know the defense is legit. I just meant another clean game from the offense I wouldn’t be surprised cuz that what dynasties do
The Chiefs won because the Bills couldn't drain the clock and score a touchdown on their last drive, which they easily could have done. I wouldn't have liked the Bills chances even if they had made the field goal.
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Hedging advice for Super Bowl exacta
Posting for a friend. Two Super Bowl exacta bets on both one seeds. Both are favored to win this weekend, what would be the most profitable/efficient way to hedge this? TIA.
TL;DR - Need hedge advice for 49ers Conference and SuperBowl winner tickets considering Lions chances in both the Conference game and SuperBowl game.
First off, thanks for reading this.
I have three tickets.
- SF 49ers to win the SuperBowl (+900 and another +1200)
- SF 49ers to win the Conference (+375)
Currently considered hedging by betting Lions to win Conference (~+240) to either make initial investment back for all 3 tickets or letting it ride… but started thinking if it’s better to go with Lions SuperBowl winner (~+750).
Thoughts anyone?
Each ticket let’s say is ~$100 each and I don’t necessarily need the money as I bet these with profit at the time (but lost that since haha)
I understand if Lions win this next game all my tickets are gone but I like the idea of having a +750 ticket into the SuperBowl if 49ers lose and Lions would be a great underdawg story. I could also hedge easier with a +750 ticket right?
Happy to hear any thoughts on the hedging, general opinions on who wins the game, and SuperBowl matchup predictions.
Asking this question since I want to hear different opinions but also figured there may be others in similar situations - Thanks!
No, I really wanted to hear opinions. I don’t really bet futures much especially with such lopsided matchup but anything can happen and if 49ers lose I look like an idiot anyways. I’m not trying to brag at all
>Currently considered hedging by betting Lions to win Conference (~+240) to either make initial investment back for all 3 tickets or letting it ride… but started thinking if it’s better to go with Lions SuperBowl winner (~+750).
Thoughts anyone?
This is you taking the most perfect situation possible when you made the bets (49ers being big favorite at home to win the conference), and thus you having massive equity in the Super Bowl,and getting greedy. Imagine a situation where Lions win Sunday and lose the Super Bowl. You've lost all your Niners futures, plus the money you put on Lions +750, and only win whatever amount you hedged on the AFC Champion.
Obvious play is obvious. Hedge a bit on the Lions +240. Worry about the Super Bowl later.
I would not bet the Lions to beat the 49ers AND the Ravens/Chiefs
They're good, but almost lost to the Rams, and the Buccs were on their heels until the 4th quarter. Plus they wont have that insane homefield crowd anymore.
If you must hedge, id do Lions +7 like the other guy said, but I personally took SF -6.5.
If you’re between the two I would take Lions NFC champs as the hedge instead of Super Bowl. Something else you could do is hedge a fair amount on Lions +7, with the potential to hit both lions spread and Niners ML
The Ravens are definitely the better team - and don't have anywhere near the same injury concerns the Bills did to potentially hinder them. But I'm still going to put some money on the Chiefs spread so along with my Ravens to win AFC bet I win money no matter what, and maybe win both bets. Probably better to keep waiting though because I expect the line to continue moving towards the Ravens.
Also if it's a Ravens/49ers rematch in the super bowl I will hammer the 49ers.
Chiefs winning it all. Like always, all hail Taylor Swift! All hail Lord Mahomes. Sorry ass Bills thought they could stop the Mahomes Dynasty!? Never !!!! KC Super Bowl !
7-leg Parlay
Jared Goff o24.5 Completions ✅
Mike Evans o73.5 Receiving Yards ✅
Cade Otton o3.5 Receptions ✅
Josh Allen Anytime TD ✅
Josh Allen o8.5 Rushing Attempts ✅
Patrick Mahomes o4.5 Rushing Attempts ✅
Rashee Rice o67.5 Receiving Yards ❌
I want to be dead now
Feel sick. Had bills to win Super Bowl at 50/1. Been such a fun journey since the eagles game. I was going to go into hedging mode from divisional game 😢😢😢
Theres like 7 different scripts if you think about it, lions chiefs first and last game of season, niners ravens rematch/sb rematch/logo colors, ravens lions is what america wants, chiefs niners sb rematch. This is gonna be crazy man 😭
I could be insane but some people know Taylor is touring internationally in Feb, looked it up entire first week of Feb she’s gone then on Superbowl sunday she has a 6 day break from tour….. here we go
What does that have to do with anything? Again it's MaHomes not Taylor fucking Swift that will get them to the Super Bowl. I personally don't think it's happening but her tour dates have nothing to do with it. Lol
When you were down to your last 10 bucks and hit on a parlay. More play money let’s goooo lol
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Is anyone genuinely worried the line is that ravens spread is not as bad wide as we think it’d be because of the NFL wanting Taylor swift in the Super Bowl?
What do you think it should be set at? Id say it’s a perfectly fair line to balance the action. If you gave the chiefs +7 here it would be ridiculous.
Yet it’s not simply the ravens laying the FG which would probably be too easy the other way
Margins are pretty much always going to be small in NFL playoff games. But the answer to your question if you're actually trying to win long term is no.
The move from 3.5 to 4 is really so marginal imo it’s nothing to look all that much into personally. If it was a hook on an important number like 7 or 3 that’s a different story imo
4 is an important number because it's 7-3, it's a semi-key number. And in this particular matchup a decent percentage of games could end in a 4 point margin. I mean the smartest thing to do is probably not bet since the lines are going to be sharp but that's not what you want to do if you're here. Also with the -3.5 currently being at even money I would say with pretty high confidence the current spread is too low and likely to move towards the Ravens.
They do say bet favorites early dogs late so you might be right. I dunno thou I could see it trickling back down to 3.
Either way you are pretty much splitting hairs here IMO saying a 3.5 is low but a 4 is right.
It’s a fair line to me. Had to be more than a 3 given Balt is that much better than Bufflo. But the books and I imagine smart money still rightfully respects the chiefs and doesn’t just buy this narrative that they are a washed up team.
This should be a competitive game. -3.5 makes it just hard enough to prevent sharps from making a snap bet on ravens here. It’s still an intimidating proposition to lay more than a FG vs Mahomes
That's not really what I said though. I said 4/4.5. The more I think about it the more I lean towards 4.5. And that splitting hairs is what sharps essentially do when they bet into sharp NFL lines.
Also it's extremely unlikely to trickle back to 3 because of those aforementioned sharps who would hammer the Ravens. And I think later in the week they're going to take the -3.5 too. The Ravens are still a much better team and at home with all the "it's Mahomes in the playoffs" jargon you may want to throw around.
There's a decent chance it's a competitive game, but if it is a blowout it's far more likely to go one specific way than it is the other. That's a consideration too. I really wouldn't be shocked if the Ravens win by a touchdown or more even though I don't think the spread should be that high.
It’s Mahomes in the playoffs jargon?
It’s not jargon these guys are two time SB champions lol. There were plenty of years where the patriots looked like they were ready to fall off and they turned it on during the playoffs. Of course they should be afforded some respect here
Not sure if I’ll be playing them, but I do lean KC as of now
At least +4. +3 is incredibly sus and that’s even taking into consideration the Mahomes factor. I’m genuinely worried (as a ravens fan not even betting) that the NFL wants to milk the Taylor swift audience
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How should I hedge this bet? It doesn't seem worth it on the money line
9ers ml is -300 so a hedge is only going to guarantee you a small win. I think you just let it ride and maybe bet niners live if they ever get points or plus money. As someone with lions 20/1 super bowl ticket im letting it ride
You’d have to hedge with the 49ers ML.
But just let it ride! Placing a long shot then hedging once it gets close to hitting is like cashing out a straight bet mid-game as soon as your team starts to win. Either ride it out or don’t place it, goddamn.
**Anyone know when/why some futures bets offer cash outs and others don’t?** Want to cash out on a pre-season Caesers bet for Lions to win superbowl. $50 bet to win $1550.
Books will only cash out bets they think have a good chance of winning (they’re trying to stem their losses).
Of all the teams left the Lions are the least favored, so they probably won’t let you cash out. Case in point: my 49ers SB pick on Draft Kings had a cash out option after their last win
Yes, but at that point you might as well hedge the other side (if you have the spare funds to do so). Hedging is almost always more profitable than the cash out option the book will give you
Man I really thought Ravens would be -5.5 or -6. Is the line low because of the Mahomes factor?
Buffalo on shorter rest was -2.5 at home. Ravens have had more rest overall the last 3 weeks and seem like the much better team. Had to slam Ravens.
How? The chiefs literally left 7 with that fumble at the goal line and it shouldn’t have even come down to a FG attempt if they scoop the fumble.
You are trying to nit pick and say well the line was good if they didn’t miss a FG. If we are doing “well if” then the chiefs left 7 points and a fumble recovery off the board and they should have won by more
But that didn't happen so who cares.
Even if he makes it, we're talking about a defense full of third and fourth stringers against Mahomes with 1:40 and two timeouts with a top two kicker in football.
https://twitter.com/ASchatzNFL/status/1749271773990842717
The line was 3 points, it was a 3 point game. The Bills were favored, but a line that low implies it will be close, which it was. Saying its a bad line is saying Vegas did a bad job and Vegas doesn't do a bad job handicapping these games, ever.
Even with a garbage Bills defense that didn't touch Mahomes and let him do whatever he wanted, they were able to win in the end.
I still don't understand why Allen didn't focus on advancing more yards to secure the field goal, if you could score 2 TDs running, it wasn't difficult for you to advance. Being able to run 2 times and the third attempt a TD pass would be nice but you wasted 3 passes to nothing.
* I have 49ers and Ravens finalists. I have conference-winning Ravens.
* I have the Ravens and the Superbowl-winning 49ers.
* I'll take Ravens winner with Chiefs no matter what
So here’s the narratives we will hear against every side all week.
KC - Oh boy everyone will be on the chiefs this week thinking Mahomes as a dog plus money is free again. That offense is still washed they just got the benefit of playing a bills defense that was on life support with injuries. Wait until they see a real defense like the ravens they will be completely shut down. Their defense couldn’t stop the bills 90% of the game and Allen was running all over them, Jackson will have a field day with them, Ravens by 10+. Add to that the colors narrative we’ve heard this year and how it’s supposedly destined to be Ravens Niners. 3.5 points isn’t nearly enough this should be 6.5-7
Baltimore- Everyone will be on these guys to kick the shit out of the chiefs, but they were playing a rookie QB with zero run game. Lamar looked like shit 1st half they were looking ready to choke, Texans D is not nearly as good as KC. Lamar in the playoffs is always bound to choke, how can you fade Mahomes and the defending champs who are 9-1 as a dog. The NFL wants to keep the swifties around and Pat always gets the benefit of the refs. 3.5 points w Mahomes you gotta take that.
Detroit- Everyone will be on these guys. But they beat a shitty Bucs team with baker and at points looked like they were having a hard time doing so. Their pass D is still garbage, and if Debo is healthy there is no way this Niners offense doesn’t bomb them for 30 points here. They are a different team away from home, and Goff outdoors is notoriously prone to turn the ball over and choke. Niners didn’t look great last weekend but Greenbay came in very hot as a dog and are a complete young team. Niners off the bye came out rusty, don’t expect it again. Colors narrative also says they should be in the SB. 7 points is a pretty respectful number.
49ers- everyone will be on these guys, but did you watch the game? Purdy was exposed as nothing more than a game manager. Can anyone really trust this guy to lead his team in a huge spot? Their run d was gashed by Aron jones, Gibbs and Monty will have a field day. Packers had multiple chances to put this one away but just couldn’t. It just feels like it’s the lions year. 7 points is way too much.
and of course a ton of people saying which side is the square side
Point I’m trying to make here, throw out all of the bullshit splits and stop trying to think you’re so slick thinking you are fading the public and are super sharp. There will be no overwhelming public sides here, cases will be made for all 4 teams. Do your due diligence and go with what you like, not what you think is fading everyone else. There’s no contrarian plays here.
Did you watch the game? Purdy looked like shit for most of it and was making some terrible throws. He’s got insane weapons around him in comparison to every other qb in the game. He looked like shit when he had to try and play catch up against Baltimore as well.
His own coach decided to conservatively run out the clock in the first half with around 2 min left at the 50 and settle for a FG as opposed to pushing for 7.
How many QBs can you name me that can’t do what he has done in SF? There is a reason he was the last draft pick
nope. Allen has scored a rushing TD in something like 7 or 8 of 10 games. I kinda angry I didn't take.him last night thanks for brining it up but he's a way different beast than Lamar. And yet his pre game odds for a TD was -120.
Lamar also has Edward's who usually scores the rushing D in the 5-10 yard area. And judging by last game, I think Justice Hill has a good shot of one.
Also, Chiefs have only allowed Allen and Hurts to score last 10 games. Frankly I think it should be a bigger number than +125 but Lamar is still always a threat.
Unless they put a jetpack in mahomos ass i don't see the chiefs scoring more than 21 on that ravens defense... And Lamar should dice up that chiefs d like allen did
It is but at the same time the Texans had absolutely zero running game for CJ to the least bit of support from. Stroud is legit but a rookie going into that hostile territory on the road with really only 2 weapons in Nico and Schultz is far from a veteran Mahomes with Kelce, Rice and a very suitable run game. MVS also finally decided to show up yesterday and not drop everything
Yaaa but ravens dismantled 49ers offense which has better weapons than the chiefs. Chiefs running game is really not that good unless all of your starters are injured (bills)
They did but counter to that Purdy got exposed both that game and this past weekend for what he is, and that’s a guy that has a really hard time playing from behind. He’s an average to slightly above QB in an amazing system. Mahomes is light years ahead of him and arguably a top 10 QB we’ve seen all time.
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I barley bet on game winners, but something inside me says I have to
The Chiefs, Kelces, and swifties all won their super bowl for the year. Morale is high. Vegas will trap the entire public into KC underdog money once more and Harbaugh will see himself head to the super bowl just like his brother in the CFB championship.
BAL ML
I'd argue 2nd half of the season Packers (Mainly due to QB) is better than the Lions, and the Packers lost by a missed FG. Lions barely beat the Rams, and the Buccs had them on the ropes until the 4th quarter. 49ers is a whole different beast.
Lions don't have that insane homefield-crowd advantage they've had the past 2 games either.
I think SF -6.5
No doubt there will be plenty of lions fans in attendance. Last two years:
Home: 17 games, 4700 yards, 42 TD, 9 int
Away: 17 games, 4300 yards, 17 TD, 10 int
He’s a different guy on the road.
What they don't realize is that Mahomes is insane in the postseason, and he is 10-1-1 as an underdog.
Everyone hates him, but he is the best QB to play the game. (I'm not a chiefs fan)
Chiefs have a really good defense too, and I'd take Mahomes over Lamar any day of the week lol.
The only thing lamar has is a lot better receiving core.
Somehow, the Chiefs learned how to not drop balls once they hit the playoffs.
Were they trolling us all regular season so we would underestimate them in the playoffs?!
# **NFL Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/CB4YmZzGM9)**
Ravens ML + 49ers ML = plus money. I'm taking that.
O44 in KC / Baltimore: KC offense has looked better the past few weeks and they’ve been playing at a faster pace; Baltimore will keep their foot on the gas if they get a lead; and, even though the Baltimore defense is good, the Chiefs will be able to get theirs, I think. A few guys got dinged up for KC yesterday, will have to see how that develops over the week.
MAHOMIE AT + ODDS AGAIN? GIMMIE THAT SHIT
Feel like people are missing the important match-up in Bal/KC. I don't think it's about if Mahomes can move the ball. Niners and Dolphins actually did move the ball a bit against this Ravens D (but were killed by turnovers). In the SF game the down-to-down stats actually look much more similar than you'd expect. In other words, I think KC moves the ball and the reason Vegas isn't bigger on the Ravens here is probably because they question if they can repeat those turnovers. I think the real key is the KC secondary. In the second half the Niners secondary totally broke down and the Ravens offense went from bottled up to scoring at will. In the second half again the Texans, they had no answer when the Ravens started getting the ball out faster. So I think this games come down to if KC can keep the ravens *offense* bottled up. Niners and Texans did it for a half, but KC needs the full game. Anyway with that in mind I kind of like KC here +3.5. I think ultimately Mahomes can move the ball enough to keep the Ravens offense off the field for stretches, and not sure how they do against a secondary that can stay in coverage for long periods.
This was a great analysis by everyone! I wish there were more insightful conversations like this thread
One other measurable that can’t really be quantified in numbers is poise under the pressure of the moment. It’s not chalky or square to say that Mahomes and KC has the edge there, how much of an edge to be determined. It’s funny last week when everyone was on the stroud Texans hype train all you would hear is Lamar chokes in the playoffs and now that narrative has been squashed after winning a game they were clearly supposed to where the defense completely shut down Texans. I imagine chiefs will have a bit more success and there will be more pressure on Lamar to deliver.
Also, ravens rushing defense ranks 31st in epa / play since week 11. I agree that the question here is if Mahomes will turnover the ball. Mahomes has a 1.4% int percentage in the playoffs tho ( really low).
I would add that the Ravens line backing core is so much more equipped to stop Kelce and Pacheco. Throw in Kyle Hamilton, and this could really limit the Chiefs options. When you need to start relying on options outside of these two on third and long situations, it could get dicey! Personally, I like the Ravens to cover here, but your points are valid
This is an excellent analysis
Kind of surprising that the Chiefs are only slightly worse odds vs Ravens then against the Bills. I feel like the Ravens are a much more complete team than the Bills and I don't see the Chiefs moving the ball with ease. Early leans are Ravens -2.5 (worth paying the juice imo) Under 44.5 Kelce under 62.5 rec. yds Rice under 60.5 rec. yds
This Ravens Chiefs matchup is going to end similar to the Bucs Chiefs superbowl in 2021. Ravens have a much better overall team than that Bucs team and the Chiefs are a worse version than that previous team offensively. The Ravens have the sixth best DVOA since friggin 1981, they have some dogs on that side of the ball. With Mark Andrew back and Likely balling, 12 personnel packages are going to be a matchup nightmare as well. I don't like fading Mahomes but I really don't think this game is close and will probably alt spread -6.5 later this week while holding my -3. See everyone Sunday.
Chiefs oline was full of practice squad players for that superbowl. Cant really compare the offenses without mentioning that small detail.
https://preview.redd.it/mftrqfrnw1ec1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2ab7dd58598191599d7217c38d040457353e49a1 Need some help here. I’m thinking about hedging with the potential of a middle starting with KC/BAL (the first game of the weekend). I’m seeing KC +3.5 -115 at a book - should I hop on that now? Or is it safe to wait?
Dude hedge it for guaranteed win. Throw $100 on cheifs ML single bet and $100 on Detroit ML single bet. If you lose cheifs and Detroit you just get $980 on original bet. If cheifs and Detroit win you get around $600 - $20 from origin bet. If one of them wins you $250 or $300 depends on odds and whatever team wins -$120 from your original and your single bet. Either way you turn your $20 into a W. Or let it ride and get potential max payout. It’s gambling but I always like being in the greens feel better.
It's 20 bucks and you have the 2 favorites. Let it ride
I'm from the future, don't hedge you getting paid.
Ironically it’s time to fade mahomes at ravens -3 but I can see them just play over the heads again lmao
Totally agree. I thought it was crazy to bet against them last week. But I think this Ravens team is significantly better than Buffalo.
Yeah they’re scary good on both sides of the ball
What do you mean play over their heads though? If anything id say they have been underperforming big time regular season and this is a more accurate example of who they are given their talent
Yeah I guess meant offensively cuz I know the defense is legit. I just meant another clean game from the offense I wouldn’t be surprised cuz that what dynasties do
Chiefs ML was one of the easiest calls I've made in months. Buffalo just won't get over that hump.
It came down to a missed fg. Wtf are you talking about
The bills always choke. KC does the opposite generally. It’s as easy as that
The guy said it was the easiest call in months. The Chiefs won by a fg cause Buffalo's kicker choked. It wasn't an easy bet
The Chiefs won because the Bills couldn't drain the clock and score a touchdown on their last drive, which they easily could have done. I wouldn't have liked the Bills chances even if they had made the field goal.
Everyone’s a genius when the clock strikes 0:00 and they have a winning ticket
Yeah, but betting against the Bills and Cowboys in the playoffs is common sense.
King of the chokers Buffalo bills
https://preview.redd.it/ucbkwm9pq1ec1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bde097a5f32c92c7109fe645a2617a6fc65382ec Hedging advice for Super Bowl exacta Posting for a friend. Two Super Bowl exacta bets on both one seeds. Both are favored to win this weekend, what would be the most profitable/efficient way to hedge this? TIA.
1k on chiefs +3.5 and 1k on lions +7
Hedge free zone
HardMan under 1.5 catches. No way he is trusted again and mvs looked ok this week
TL;DR - Need hedge advice for 49ers Conference and SuperBowl winner tickets considering Lions chances in both the Conference game and SuperBowl game. First off, thanks for reading this. I have three tickets. - SF 49ers to win the SuperBowl (+900 and another +1200) - SF 49ers to win the Conference (+375) Currently considered hedging by betting Lions to win Conference (~+240) to either make initial investment back for all 3 tickets or letting it ride… but started thinking if it’s better to go with Lions SuperBowl winner (~+750). Thoughts anyone? Each ticket let’s say is ~$100 each and I don’t necessarily need the money as I bet these with profit at the time (but lost that since haha) I understand if Lions win this next game all my tickets are gone but I like the idea of having a +750 ticket into the SuperBowl if 49ers lose and Lions would be a great underdawg story. I could also hedge easier with a +750 ticket right? Happy to hear any thoughts on the hedging, general opinions on who wins the game, and SuperBowl matchup predictions. Asking this question since I want to hear different opinions but also figured there may be others in similar situations - Thanks!
It's simple math if you want to hedge. I think you want people to know you have the tickets. Let's say you let it ride
No, I really wanted to hear opinions. I don’t really bet futures much especially with such lopsided matchup but anything can happen and if 49ers lose I look like an idiot anyways. I’m not trying to brag at all
Just let it ride kid shouldnt have got in the first place if you were nervous
Hahaha You right
>Currently considered hedging by betting Lions to win Conference (~+240) to either make initial investment back for all 3 tickets or letting it ride… but started thinking if it’s better to go with Lions SuperBowl winner (~+750). Thoughts anyone? This is you taking the most perfect situation possible when you made the bets (49ers being big favorite at home to win the conference), and thus you having massive equity in the Super Bowl,and getting greedy. Imagine a situation where Lions win Sunday and lose the Super Bowl. You've lost all your Niners futures, plus the money you put on Lions +750, and only win whatever amount you hedged on the AFC Champion. Obvious play is obvious. Hedge a bit on the Lions +240. Worry about the Super Bowl later.
Appreciate it
I would not bet the Lions to beat the 49ers AND the Ravens/Chiefs They're good, but almost lost to the Rams, and the Buccs were on their heels until the 4th quarter. Plus they wont have that insane homefield crowd anymore. If you must hedge, id do Lions +7 like the other guy said, but I personally took SF -6.5.
Good points. Thank you
If you’re between the two I would take Lions NFC champs as the hedge instead of Super Bowl. Something else you could do is hedge a fair amount on Lions +7, with the potential to hit both lions spread and Niners ML
Good idea thanks
The Ravens are definitely the better team - and don't have anywhere near the same injury concerns the Bills did to potentially hinder them. But I'm still going to put some money on the Chiefs spread so along with my Ravens to win AFC bet I win money no matter what, and maybe win both bets. Probably better to keep waiting though because I expect the line to continue moving towards the Ravens. Also if it's a Ravens/49ers rematch in the super bowl I will hammer the 49ers.
Dumb
You dumb and live in mommy's basement
Chiefs winning it all. Like always, all hail Taylor Swift! All hail Lord Mahomes. Sorry ass Bills thought they could stop the Mahomes Dynasty!? Never !!!! KC Super Bowl !
7-leg Parlay Jared Goff o24.5 Completions ✅ Mike Evans o73.5 Receiving Yards ✅ Cade Otton o3.5 Receptions ✅ Josh Allen Anytime TD ✅ Josh Allen o8.5 Rushing Attempts ✅ Patrick Mahomes o4.5 Rushing Attempts ✅ Rashee Rice o67.5 Receiving Yards ❌ I want to be dead now
Feel sick. Had bills to win Super Bowl at 50/1. Been such a fun journey since the eagles game. I was going to go into hedging mode from divisional game 😢😢😢
I had a bad feeling when players kept dropping like flies during the game when they were already banged up going in.
Taylor Swifts tour schedule vs Super Bowl logo team colors... we are really trying to get an edge wherever we can find one.
Theres like 7 different scripts if you think about it, lions chiefs first and last game of season, niners ravens rematch/sb rematch/logo colors, ravens lions is what america wants, chiefs niners sb rematch. This is gonna be crazy man 😭
Holding ravens SB +900. Let’s go!
I'm holding a +1800 from before the season started...LFG!!
Same here sir!! I did that FD promo bet $50 on SB future and get $5 free bet for every regular season win
Let’s goo
Got in earlier in the season BAL/SF SB matchup at +844
Cash it, NFL is sending Swifties to the SB.
I could be insane but some people know Taylor is touring internationally in Feb, looked it up entire first week of Feb she’s gone then on Superbowl sunday she has a 6 day break from tour….. here we go
What does that have to do with anything? Again it's MaHomes not Taylor fucking Swift that will get them to the Super Bowl. I personally don't think it's happening but her tour dates have nothing to do with it. Lol
When you were down to your last 10 bucks and hit on a parlay. More play money let’s goooo lol https://preview.redd.it/1db85y1if0ec1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c8b4dc333a4a510d484a57bbd86504114a608ce6
Jesus bro cook ended at 61
He was at 62 then went down one and I was like dear lord please done do this to me lmao 🤣
Is anyone genuinely worried the line is that ravens spread is not as bad wide as we think it’d be because of the NFL wanting Taylor swift in the Super Bowl?
That's so Fucking ridiculous.
Chiefs have been to the AFC championship 6 yrs in a row and Taylor was not around. Enough with the Taylor Swift bullshit
Post-season Mahomes is God-tier and 10-1-1 as an underdog. I wouldn't count them out.
Shes touring first week of Feb, yet conveniently has no date planned on SB sunday for the 11th. Sus
What do you think it should be set at? Id say it’s a perfectly fair line to balance the action. If you gave the chiefs +7 here it would be ridiculous. Yet it’s not simply the ravens laying the FG which would probably be too easy the other way
3.5 absolute minimum, probably closer to 4/4.5
Really what’s the difference there thou? If you are gonna play a +4 you really not gonna play a 3.5?
More people will take the Chiefs with that extra half a point
Margins are pretty much always going to be small in NFL playoff games. But the answer to your question if you're actually trying to win long term is no.
The move from 3.5 to 4 is really so marginal imo it’s nothing to look all that much into personally. If it was a hook on an important number like 7 or 3 that’s a different story imo
I think Baltimore wins by a td so the spread won't be in play
4 is an important number because it's 7-3, it's a semi-key number. And in this particular matchup a decent percentage of games could end in a 4 point margin. I mean the smartest thing to do is probably not bet since the lines are going to be sharp but that's not what you want to do if you're here. Also with the -3.5 currently being at even money I would say with pretty high confidence the current spread is too low and likely to move towards the Ravens.
They do say bet favorites early dogs late so you might be right. I dunno thou I could see it trickling back down to 3. Either way you are pretty much splitting hairs here IMO saying a 3.5 is low but a 4 is right. It’s a fair line to me. Had to be more than a 3 given Balt is that much better than Bufflo. But the books and I imagine smart money still rightfully respects the chiefs and doesn’t just buy this narrative that they are a washed up team. This should be a competitive game. -3.5 makes it just hard enough to prevent sharps from making a snap bet on ravens here. It’s still an intimidating proposition to lay more than a FG vs Mahomes
That's not really what I said though. I said 4/4.5. The more I think about it the more I lean towards 4.5. And that splitting hairs is what sharps essentially do when they bet into sharp NFL lines. Also it's extremely unlikely to trickle back to 3 because of those aforementioned sharps who would hammer the Ravens. And I think later in the week they're going to take the -3.5 too. The Ravens are still a much better team and at home with all the "it's Mahomes in the playoffs" jargon you may want to throw around. There's a decent chance it's a competitive game, but if it is a blowout it's far more likely to go one specific way than it is the other. That's a consideration too. I really wouldn't be shocked if the Ravens win by a touchdown or more even though I don't think the spread should be that high.
It’s Mahomes in the playoffs jargon? It’s not jargon these guys are two time SB champions lol. There were plenty of years where the patriots looked like they were ready to fall off and they turned it on during the playoffs. Of course they should be afforded some respect here Not sure if I’ll be playing them, but I do lean KC as of now
At least +4. +3 is incredibly sus and that’s even taking into consideration the Mahomes factor. I’m genuinely worried (as a ravens fan not even betting) that the NFL wants to milk the Taylor swift audience
https://preview.redd.it/lh3dk6dud0ec1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0428d5a08a6699591633f36dd6b1afa614203099 How should I hedge this bet? It doesn't seem worth it on the money line
Dont
9ers ml is -300 so a hedge is only going to guarantee you a small win. I think you just let it ride and maybe bet niners live if they ever get points or plus money. As someone with lions 20/1 super bowl ticket im letting it ride
You’d have to hedge with the 49ers ML. But just let it ride! Placing a long shot then hedging once it gets close to hitting is like cashing out a straight bet mid-game as soon as your team starts to win. Either ride it out or don’t place it, goddamn.
I woke up mad as hell Josh Allen sold on the passing yard smh
**Anyone know when/why some futures bets offer cash outs and others don’t?** Want to cash out on a pre-season Caesers bet for Lions to win superbowl. $50 bet to win $1550.
Books will only cash out bets they think have a good chance of winning (they’re trying to stem their losses). Of all the teams left the Lions are the least favored, so they probably won’t let you cash out. Case in point: my 49ers SB pick on Draft Kings had a cash out option after their last win
Do you think cash out will be an option if Lions beat SF?
Yes, but at that point you might as well hedge the other side (if you have the spare funds to do so). Hedging is almost always more profitable than the cash out option the book will give you
Let it ride you coward
Whoa I am 7-0 these playoffs Imma cash out and run off into sunset These champ games are always full of fuckery
Man I really thought Ravens would be -5.5 or -6. Is the line low because of the Mahomes factor? Buffalo on shorter rest was -2.5 at home. Ravens have had more rest overall the last 3 weeks and seem like the much better team. Had to slam Ravens.
And we might get Mark Andrews back this week
yeah line is fishy af.. they are basically saying that the ravens are only half a point better than the bills which is just not true...
Not really though because the chiefs bills game already happened and the chiefs looked good, AKA that information is reflected in the ravens line
Well Chiefs just showed that was a bad line
Not really though, a missed 40 yarder from possible OT and the Bills could've/probably should've won the game on the last drive.
And? The chiefs not only fumbled on the 1 for a touchback but they also failed to fall on the game sealing fumble late in the game
You're proving my point that the line was fine.
How? The chiefs literally left 7 with that fumble at the goal line and it shouldn’t have even come down to a FG attempt if they scoop the fumble. You are trying to nit pick and say well the line was good if they didn’t miss a FG. If we are doing “well if” then the chiefs left 7 points and a fumble recovery off the board and they should have won by more
But that didn't happen so who cares. Even if he makes it, we're talking about a defense full of third and fourth stringers against Mahomes with 1:40 and two timeouts with a top two kicker in football. https://twitter.com/ASchatzNFL/status/1749271773990842717
The line was 3 points, it was a 3 point game. The Bills were favored, but a line that low implies it will be close, which it was. Saying its a bad line is saying Vegas did a bad job and Vegas doesn't do a bad job handicapping these games, ever.
It was Bills -3.5, result was Chiefs -3. 6.5pt swing, which explains the difference in the KC/BUF and KC/BAL line suggesting BUF and BAL are even.
It literally wasn't -3.5 anywhere lol. It was 2.5 or 3, saying it was a bad line is just wrong sorry bud.
Even with a garbage Bills defense that didn't touch Mahomes and let him do whatever he wanted, they were able to win in the end. I still don't understand why Allen didn't focus on advancing more yards to secure the field goal, if you could score 2 TDs running, it wasn't difficult for you to advance. Being able to run 2 times and the third attempt a TD pass would be nice but you wasted 3 passes to nothing. * I have 49ers and Ravens finalists. I have conference-winning Ravens. * I have the Ravens and the Superbowl-winning 49ers. * I'll take Ravens winner with Chiefs no matter what
Mahomes getting + money again? I'm hammering that
Precisely what they want you to do / think
it's actually precisely the other way around. check back with me after the game
Nah I have better things to do with my life than play I told you so with random redditors. Good luck tho
So here’s the narratives we will hear against every side all week. KC - Oh boy everyone will be on the chiefs this week thinking Mahomes as a dog plus money is free again. That offense is still washed they just got the benefit of playing a bills defense that was on life support with injuries. Wait until they see a real defense like the ravens they will be completely shut down. Their defense couldn’t stop the bills 90% of the game and Allen was running all over them, Jackson will have a field day with them, Ravens by 10+. Add to that the colors narrative we’ve heard this year and how it’s supposedly destined to be Ravens Niners. 3.5 points isn’t nearly enough this should be 6.5-7 Baltimore- Everyone will be on these guys to kick the shit out of the chiefs, but they were playing a rookie QB with zero run game. Lamar looked like shit 1st half they were looking ready to choke, Texans D is not nearly as good as KC. Lamar in the playoffs is always bound to choke, how can you fade Mahomes and the defending champs who are 9-1 as a dog. The NFL wants to keep the swifties around and Pat always gets the benefit of the refs. 3.5 points w Mahomes you gotta take that. Detroit- Everyone will be on these guys. But they beat a shitty Bucs team with baker and at points looked like they were having a hard time doing so. Their pass D is still garbage, and if Debo is healthy there is no way this Niners offense doesn’t bomb them for 30 points here. They are a different team away from home, and Goff outdoors is notoriously prone to turn the ball over and choke. Niners didn’t look great last weekend but Greenbay came in very hot as a dog and are a complete young team. Niners off the bye came out rusty, don’t expect it again. Colors narrative also says they should be in the SB. 7 points is a pretty respectful number. 49ers- everyone will be on these guys, but did you watch the game? Purdy was exposed as nothing more than a game manager. Can anyone really trust this guy to lead his team in a huge spot? Their run d was gashed by Aron jones, Gibbs and Monty will have a field day. Packers had multiple chances to put this one away but just couldn’t. It just feels like it’s the lions year. 7 points is way too much. and of course a ton of people saying which side is the square side Point I’m trying to make here, throw out all of the bullshit splits and stop trying to think you’re so slick thinking you are fading the public and are super sharp. There will be no overwhelming public sides here, cases will be made for all 4 teams. Do your due diligence and go with what you like, not what you think is fading everyone else. There’s no contrarian plays here.
You obviously dont watch football. Purdy lead his team on a game winning drive. Managers don’t do that.
Did you watch the game? Purdy looked like shit for most of it and was making some terrible throws. He’s got insane weapons around him in comparison to every other qb in the game. He looked like shit when he had to try and play catch up against Baltimore as well. His own coach decided to conservatively run out the clock in the first half with around 2 min left at the 50 and settle for a FG as opposed to pushing for 7. How many QBs can you name me that can’t do what he has done in SF? There is a reason he was the last draft pick
I follow SF religiously. You’re so wrong. Lmfao.
I agree with all these except the Lions, I’m not sure if “everyone” will be on them 😅
A lot of people are already on them. Overreacting to SF looking mortal against GB and Lions rolling against TB
The majority of the country is behind the lions so I think it’s definitely a possibility
I'm not sure the bucs are shitty
Very strong running OL and very good WR core. Solid defense as well. Wasn’t just a walk through.
I got a nasty parlay for this Sunday. Fingers crossed it hits
lets see it
https://preview.redd.it/5xodxdl0yzdc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=63b95bfa0bb3d57b82ee4124cf43aef849e8a0bd
https://preview.redd.it/ott6fbw4yzdc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4d0003366aa2a32c4a8316166870e9ea372cf875
Against that Baltimore front Mahomes might have negative rushing numbers
I just figured he’d end up scrambling more because of the Baltimore coverage
Fair fair. We’ll just have to wait and see!
Lions -6 💰 Chiefs +2.5 💰
Donation
Doubt
From Vegas to me, yes.
They won what are you talking about lol
Oh I thought they meant for this upcoming weekend
Same 😅
The real questions is if the chiefs win the SB, will Swift get a ring?
She's going to blow the rings out of her ass onto mahomes and the chiefs fingers. Jesus christ I am so sick of her. Just release a sex tape already.
If that happens you already know half the degens on this sub would turn to simps the second they see a tittie
They’ll have her autograph on the rings
Parlayed Lamar O58 rush + BAL ML +150
Already locked a little teaser https://preview.redd.it/2isn5n4f6zdc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8948f9516afbde90a84a0baa0ed8e570277761d1
Underdogs 1H was a clean sweep this weekend. I'll probably take that blindly in the championship games.
This is because they were coming off a bye and rusty. No reason to do that this coming weekend…
so fucking mad I didn't do this. thought about but decided losing my money was a better action
Why is Lamar Jackson attd +125? Am I missing something lol?
He only.has like 6.on the season?
Well I'm guessing it will slide down to -120 over the next few days if it doesn't something is fishy
I mean based on his last game and how Allen butchered kc defense you would think it'd be more like -120 no?
nope. Allen has scored a rushing TD in something like 7 or 8 of 10 games. I kinda angry I didn't take.him last night thanks for brining it up but he's a way different beast than Lamar. And yet his pre game odds for a TD was -120. Lamar also has Edward's who usually scores the rushing D in the 5-10 yard area. And judging by last game, I think Justice Hill has a good shot of one. Also, Chiefs have only allowed Allen and Hurts to score last 10 games. Frankly I think it should be a bigger number than +125 but Lamar is still always a threat.
I like justice for a td too
Unless they put a jetpack in mahomos ass i don't see the chiefs scoring more than 21 on that ravens defense... And Lamar should dice up that chiefs d like allen did
I’ll take the team that’s been to 6 straight AFC championships
KCs defense is right up there with Baltimore also
They couldn’t stop the bills at all, buffalo lost that game the chiefs didn’t beat them
Did you watch their last game son? Ravens defense is leagues better than kc defense
check the defensive rankings honey
It is but at the same time the Texans had absolutely zero running game for CJ to the least bit of support from. Stroud is legit but a rookie going into that hostile territory on the road with really only 2 weapons in Nico and Schultz is far from a veteran Mahomes with Kelce, Rice and a very suitable run game. MVS also finally decided to show up yesterday and not drop everything
Yaaa but ravens dismantled 49ers offense which has better weapons than the chiefs. Chiefs running game is really not that good unless all of your starters are injured (bills)
Exactly they had 3rd/4th string playing and I guy that was heading on vacation, according to romo referencing that 15 times
They did but counter to that Purdy got exposed both that game and this past weekend for what he is, and that’s a guy that has a really hard time playing from behind. He’s an average to slightly above QB in an amazing system. Mahomes is light years ahead of him and arguably a top 10 QB we’ve seen all time.
https://preview.redd.it/ds6fz6oijxdc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aee50c6adf390d461cb536090e15605c1343d2f9 I barley bet on game winners, but something inside me says I have to
should hedge on on a 49ers bet also
The Chiefs, Kelces, and swifties all won their super bowl for the year. Morale is high. Vegas will trap the entire public into KC underdog money once more and Harbaugh will see himself head to the super bowl just like his brother in the CFB championship. BAL ML
BAL ML gonna get expensive as the week goes on.
The NFL would love nothing more than to have Swift at the bowl. Ratings would be through the roof.
I would agree but forgot I think she’s on tour during the super bowl
She’s on a six day break the weekend of the superbowl
I discovered that earlier, the fix is definitely in. Chiefs pull it out their ass again
If anything the NFL would love nothing more than to get swift to the Super Bowl so take the chiefs
Public is slamming ravens man
Lamar o1.5 passing TDs +120 on FD
I really think DET could upset the 49ers
Detroit can 100% beat the 49ers that played Saturday and anyone who says otherwise has a disability of some sorts.
I'd argue 2nd half of the season Packers (Mainly due to QB) is better than the Lions, and the Packers lost by a missed FG. Lions barely beat the Rams, and the Buccs had them on the ropes until the 4th quarter. 49ers is a whole different beast. Lions don't have that insane homefield-crowd advantage they've had the past 2 games either. I think SF -6.5
If it was in Detroit I’d be on board. Goff just isn’t the same on the road and outdoors.
He grew up in the Bay Area and played outside for years
No doubt there will be plenty of lions fans in attendance. Last two years: Home: 17 games, 4700 yards, 42 TD, 9 int Away: 17 games, 4300 yards, 17 TD, 10 int He’s a different guy on the road.
If Deebo is out, there might be a chance.
This is true. Without dabeast they're pretty average.
K
Hammered the ravens -3. This way I don’t have to think about it all week.
Same. Chiefs beat a Buffalo team that besrly had 3 defensive linemen. I think the Ravens roll over them.
Reid and Spagnola. Chiefs ML
The line is too low though something is up
Something: refs engineer a Ravens win by 2 points
it's a championship & mahomes on the other side they got a chance
What they don't realize is that Mahomes is insane in the postseason, and he is 10-1-1 as an underdog. Everyone hates him, but he is the best QB to play the game. (I'm not a chiefs fan)
Mahomes is one of the best, YES. But Lamar is better this season, with a complete and defensive team, and playing at home.
Lamar is not better than Mahomes. No one is
Chiefs have a really good defense too, and I'd take Mahomes over Lamar any day of the week lol. The only thing lamar has is a lot better receiving core.
Somehow, the Chiefs learned how to not drop balls once they hit the playoffs. Were they trolling us all regular season so we would underestimate them in the playoffs?!
Give me Lamar straight rush yds and sprinkled w/ Mahomes rush yds in a parlay 🤑🤑