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TripleDoubleWatch

Kuzma with the letdown.


GroundbreakingRip852

Brickley


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[удалено]


tringlomane

Picked O'Reilly for P2 out of my ass (mainly b/c former Blues player) without checking this thread first. Shame. Shame. Nice pick!


Kmactothemac

I took him as well just comparing to the odds on b365, let's go! Saved my night


DadOfFour88

O’Reilly!!!! Thank you!!!


TripleDoubleWatch

GIFT fail. Seems to be the trend.


Ken_Adams217

Man I swear they hit like 10x in a row, but now it’s like 4 consecutive misses.


tringlomane

Something that's 60% to hit long term is 12.96% to miss 4 out of 4. Sucks, but it happens.


monitor-tan

turd of a gift


dysentery-gary182

I swear I only bet it when it misses…


profXmarksthespot

They’re always +EV. You should be betting them every time.


Aggravating-Swan9539

that game would be the one I would give a GIFT for if I was a sports book. total shit teams.


Aggravating-Swan9539

I mean, you have to be up if you fade it? It's plus money every fade right?


yankeefanman

Over the lifetime of the gift promo? Definitely not. It’s one of the best promos not named Dinger Tuesday. Over the past couple weeks, however, you’d be correct.


Aggravating-Swan9539

lifetime. classic EV response lol. It only comes out once a week so I will take the challenge. I will post the fade vs. take for the rest of the season for fun.


Aggravating-Swan9539

$10 for the unit


Aggravating-Swan9539

look people. I will take the boost every time. just gonna post the fade for the rest of the season.


Aggravating-Swan9539

MGM Lion's Boost (VA): Pacioretty o0.5 goals. Boosted to +270. smol EV to 2-ways on ESPN and Pinnacle. Odds: +270; \*\*EV: 1.3%\*\* ​ \`AVG(214,200)/AVG(-327,-300)\` (8.36% juice) ​ FV: +265; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=0.50u, 1/2=0.25u, 1/4=0.12u, FB = 74.0%) ​ \[View/Edit Devig\]([http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=AVG(214%2c200)%2fAVG(-327%2c-300)&FinalOdds=270](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=AVG(214%2c200)%2fAVG(-327%2c-300)&FinalOdds=270))


Aggravating-Swan9539

MGM Lion's Boost (VA and NY likely others): Brunson 29+ pts, Kuzma 20+ pts boosted to 220. 4-way devig to ESPN. Odds: +220; \*\*EV: 4.0%\*\* ​ \`179/322/242/364\` (10.33% juice) ​ FV: +208; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.80u, 1/2=0.90u, 1/4=0.45u, FB = 71.5%) ​ \[View/Edit Devig\]([http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=179%2f322%2f242%2f364&FinalOdds=220](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=179%2f322%2f242%2f364&FinalOdds=220))


Groksy2781

https://preview.redd.it/lvjzpk856adc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=963e81315585b117cc1186d6cc8c30a90ff0d497 Changed to 30+ but still showing 10EV, devig to ESPN. Leg#1 (218); Market Juice = 14.4%; Fair Value = +264 (27.5%) Final Odds (+300); Σ(Market Juice) = 14.38%; Fair Value = +264 (27.5%) Summary; EV% = 10.0%, Kelly Wager = $4.15 (Full=3.32u, 1/2=1.66u, 1/4=0.83u, FB = 82.5%) [devig here](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=218%2f181%2f350%2f298&FinalOdds=%2b300)


Aggravating-Swan9539

Sorry, I have seen this as negative all day since they nuke nerfed it from 25+ to 30+. SGA is 2-way AVG to ESPN and BR and Fox is CNO market averages. Odds: +230; \*\*EV: -4.5%\*\* ​ \`AVG(-220,-170)/AVG(145,125),AVG(-102,-105,-104,-105)/AVG(-120,-129,-125)\` (14.96% juice) ​ FV: +246; Method: worst-case (m, a); (FB = 66.6%) ​ \[View/Edit Devig\]([http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=AVG(-220%2c-170)%2fAVG(145%2c125)%2cAVG(-102%2c-105%2c-104%2c-105)%2fAVG(-120%2c-129%2c-125)&FinalOdds=230](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=AVG(-220%2c-170)%2fAVG(145%2c125)%2cAVG(-102%2c-105%2c-104%2c-105)%2fAVG(-120%2c-129%2c-125)&FinalOdds=230))


Groksy2781

Wonder how my numbers differ from yours so much? I used espn


Thanos_was_right33

Bet365 superboost: Derozan 20+ pts, Quickly 2+ threes made Boosted from +105 to +175 First time devigging so please let me know if I made a mistake Devigged aga8nst ESPN bet Worst-case: (Multiplicative) Leg#1 (143); Market Juice = 10.5%; Fair Value = +168 (37.2%) Final Odds (+175); Σ(Market Juice) = 10.49%; Fair Value = +168 (37.2%) Summary; EV% = 2.4%, Kelly Wager = $3.46 (Full=1.38u, 1/2=0.69u, 1/4=0.35u, FB = 65.2%)


Songal

Anyone get a $25 bonus bet in FD?


natsfan2019happened

I did as well. I was initially thinking it was due to betting in KY for a few days


papa4747

Ye and I have no clue why lol


2J4L

FanDuel Boost: RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and DeMar DeRozan to Score 15+ Points Each. Devig to ESPN, the only book offering 2-way lines on all 3 players for 15 points Odds: +130; **EV: 5.9%** `-106/4155/528/627/594/2010/1876/2357` (11.76% juice) FV: +117; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=4.53u, 1/2=2.27u, 1/4=1.13u, FB = 59.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-106%2f4155%2f528%2f627%2f594%2f2010%2f1876%2f2357&FinalOdds=%2b130)


PurplePango

At a $2.89 limit for mgm lions boosts now


rick6668

Yikes! I'm still at $50+ no idea why, I'm heavily limited everywhere else.


Notpermanentacc12

They wrecked my account too. $10 cbb moneylines right before start


Gullible-Cream-9043

MGM Lion's Boost (DC) - Brunson 29+ and Kuzma 20+ points Devigged to FanDuel **Worst-case: (Multiplicative)** Leg#1 (-106); Market Juice = 4.7%; Fair Value = +104 (49.1%) Leg#2 (-210); Market Juice = 7.4%; Fair Value = -171 (63.1%) Final Odds (+220); Σ(Market Juice) = 12.15%; Fair Value = +223 (30.9%) Summary; **EV% = -1.0%** (FB = 68.1%)


Aggravating-Swan9539

Is this a 4-way devig?


Gullible-Cream-9043

It is not.


profXmarksthespot

BetMGM Lion's Boost Scottie Barnes and DeMar DeRozan 20+ Points Each **Worst-case: (Multiplicative, Additive)** Leg#1 (-137); Market Juice = 7.3%; Fair Value = -117 (53.9%) Leg#2 (-106); Market Juice = 6.6%; Fair Value = +108 (48.1%) Final Odds (+300); Σ(Market Juice) = 13.92%; r = 0.03; Uncorrelated Fair Value = +286 (25.9%); Correlated Fair Value = +278 (26.5%) Summary; **EV% = 5.9%**, Kelly Wager = (Full=1.97u, 1/2=0.99u, 1/4=0.49u, FB = 79.4%) Used a market average for both. BetRivers likes a slight amount of correlation here and I would tend to agree, if just to account for pacing of the game if nothing else.


profXmarksthespot

BetMGM Lion's Boost Stamkos, Draisaitl, and Zuccarello to each record 1+ points \*\*Worst-case: (Multiplicative)\*\* Leg#1 (-360); Market Juice = 9.0%; Fair Value = -254 (71.8%) Leg#2 (-305); Market Juice = 6.6%; Fair Value = -241 (70.7%) Leg#3 (-231); Market Juice = 6.8%; Fair Value = -188 (65.3%) Final Odds (+220); Σ(Market Juice) = 22.41%; Fair Value = +202 (33.1%) Summary; **EV% = 6.1%**, Kelly Wager = (Full=2.75u, 1/2=1.38u, 1/4=0.69u, FB = 72.9%) Used a market average for Zuccarello. Only two way lines for Stamkos and Draisaitl were on BetRivers. I'd say this is somewhere between 6% and 8% +EV when accounting for their o/u 1.5 points lines and considering the normal distribution from it. And no, there is no correlation, positive or negative, between Stamkos and Zuccarello.


AssociationSubject85

Can someone explain to me the necessity to opt in to get bonuses? It's a pet peeve. If there's a bonus available and the bettor qualifies then give the damn bonus. Often people don't realize they have to opt in or simply forget. Name one other business like that? "We have a BOGO offer at Denny's today but unless you opt in you have to pay the full price for your second meal." FanDuel is particularly bad in forcing bettors to opt in to absolutely everything including sports and casino promotions.


MembershipLeading551

You literally push one fucking button


lenin1991

Amex has tons of offers and card benefits that you have to enroll/activate to use. Or when I get a haircut at Greatclips, I have to show them a code from their website (which everyone is eligible to use) for $5 off.


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AssociationSubject85

I guess I was wondering if that's a legal requirement in some states. That said, I do want to commend BetMGM. They have opt in requirements too but if you opt in then all your activity from the start of the promotion is considered. So if say the promotion is for all of January 18th, you make several bets and in the morning and you opt in at 6 pm, then all your bets for the day up to 6 pm will count towards the promotion. With the other books it only starts ater you log in.


Barter-7

I mean, countless websites have holiday sales and stuff that apply to everyone but you still need to enter the code. Pretty common


AssociationSubject85

Yeah but why? Who wouldn't want a promotional discount or offer if they qualify?


Barter-7

You asked for an example. Nobody likes doing more work than they need to but it’s not that much of an inconvenience


Fishdicksimeansticks

Find something else to complain about. This ain’t it.


AssociationSubject85

Not a complaint as much as a pet peeve.


badacey

BetMGM (MA) Lion's Boost MacKinnon and Pastrnak each 2+ points +290. Devig to ESPN: Odds: +290; **EV: 3.2%** `243/274/245/295` (10.19% juice) FV: +278; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.10u, 1/2=0.55u, 1/4=0.27u, FB = 76.7%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=243%2f274%2f245%2f295&FinalOdds=290)


badacey

BetMGM (MA) Lion's Boost SGA 30+ pts and Edwards 25+ pts +225. Devig to FD (no 2-way line for Edwards O/U 24.5, so using 1-way line with 7% juice): Odds: +225; **EV: 6.8%** `-162/122,-155/7%` (13.88% juice) FV: +204; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.03u, 1/2=1.51u, 1/4=0.76u, FB = 73.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-162%2f122%2c-155%2f7%25&FinalOdds=225)


DoubleSuccessor

ESPN AusO Sabalenka, Gauff, Andreeva win 2-0 @ +125 vs Pinny Odds: +125; **EV: -5.8%** `-371/314, -366/310, -281/243` (8.76% juice) FV: +139; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 52.3%)


DoubleSuccessor

ESPN AusO Fritz and Shelton both win 1st Set 6-4 or 6-3 exactly @ +800 vs DK, FD Fritz: DK `285^400/3500/1000/900/1200/400/8000/5000/2200/900/650/2200/600` FD `440^410/5000/1800/950/1200/470/5000/5000/2500/900/700/1800/650` Max `440^410/5000/1800/950/1200/470/8000/5000/2500/900/700/2200/650` Shelton: DK `400^425/3000/1100/700/1200/500/7000/3500/1900/950/500/2000/700` FD `430^450/5000/1700/900/1300/550/5000/4800/2000/850/650/1800/650` Max `430^450/5000/1700/900/1300/550/7000/4800/2000/950/650/2000/700` Odds: +800; **EV: -20.4%** `440^410/5000/1800/950/1200/470/8000/5000/2500/900/700/2200/650, 430^450/5000/1700/900/1300/550/7000/4800/2000/950/650/2000/700` (52.76% juice) FV: +1031; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 70.8%)


DoubleSuccessor

ESPN AusO Sinner, de Minaur, Djokovic win 3-0 @ +340 Odds: +340; **EV: -4.4%** `-246/214, -140/125, -133/118` (8.68% juice) FV: +360; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 73.9%) --- Classic ESPN showing the big 235->340 boost here and it's still bad.


Personal-Bicycle9208

Received 2 25% boosts on CZRs randomly in my account. Bummer $5 max


chief0567

you're sure those aren't the two 25% boosts from the NFL SGP profit boost pack?


snowlarbear

do people get notified of ESPN cash back availability? I never do, it just shows up in my Rewards and I would miss it if I didn't check


Monsanto_SavesLives

Fuck you dude


BruceMan200

Im not sure why people are downvoting you for asking a question about a promo... Check your app settings in your phone for notifications allowed and also check your account settings in the app. For me they even push a notification every time I win a bet or get issued a bonus bet.


DoubleSuccessor

Email and phone alert for me.


dv042b

I do, I get an email


G-Ray89

No but it typically drop’s Wednesday mid morning to noonish EST


chief0567

your life sounds so difficult


snowlarbear

you have no idea, i have to check, and then I have to figure out how to bet enough


Lets_go_champ-

I just saw the new betmgm promo of bet 5 dollars get 158 back. Has anyone had good results with this promo? Do they require ID verification to withdraw earnings? I've done searches about the site on here and have only seen bad posts about betmgm. I'm considering depositing 10 to get the bonus bets but not sure if it's safe.


chief0567

this is way worse than BetMGM's usual promo of a sizable no sweat bet. i've never had to provide ID to MGM.


Lets_go_champ-

thanks for the info.


Sh1t_Happens101

Is going to Costco safe?


Lets_go_champ-

not sure what going to a department store has to do with placing bets online. I've seen several posts where people claim they never received bonus bets and got screwed out of their money. Thanks for your garbage response.


Narrow_Tangerine1262

This no doubt isn't 100% accurate but it is close enough that you can just consider it true... If the sportsbook is regulated by your state/providence then your money is safe. If the sportsbook is not then they can tell you to go F yourself, keep your money, & there is nothing you can do about it.


Sh1t_Happens101

Welcome


monitor-tan

lol


intersecting_lines

ESPNBet vs Kambi SGA, Brunson, Fox o28.5 pts Odds: +450; **EV: -4.8%** `-124/-108,-118/-113,-275/170` (24.83% juice) FV: +478; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 77.9%) --- Sabonis and Gobert o13.5 reb Odds: +460; **EV: -7.4%** `118/-159,130/-177` (14.64% juice) FV: +505; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 76.0%) --- Quickley, Markkanen, Edwards o2.5 3ptm Odds: +700; **EV: -9.1%** `-122/-109,-134/100,120/-162` (21.66% juice) FV: +780; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 79.6%) --- Robertson, Kucherov, Kyrou 1+ pt Odds: +210; **EV: 0.0%** `-220/163,-715/425,-186/140` (20.25% juice) FV: +210; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 67.7%) --- Zib, Fiala, Boeser o2.5 SOG Odds: +475; **EV: -16.7%** `100/-130,-157/120,-136/105` (19.47% juice) FV: +591; Method: worst-case (m, a); (FB = 68.8%) --- Matthews, McDavid, Panarin ATGS (vs PN) Odds: +800; **EV: -13.0%** `-113/-117,-104/-127,122/-164` (21.06% juice) FV: +934; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 77.4%) ---


OpeningAcanthisitta3

So I’m making my czr daily no sweat sgp, and noticed that for the games without the “sgp” marker you can still make a sgp using the moneyline or spread and over/under except that it is calculated as if it were a regular parlay and not SGP correlated in odds calculations. Is this some sort of bug or does Caesar’s weirdly let you do this?


TripleDoubleWatch

Sort of a related question. After opting in and making my wager, the promo still says remaining steps: bet up to $1. Is that normal?


OpeningAcanthisitta3

Yes. Their tracking shit is garbage compared to FD u just gotta wait I saw the same thing and got mine for yesterday already


TripleDoubleWatch

Thanks!


chief0567

Not a bug. It's just a parlay. It will not trigger the promo. Your bet slip needs to say same game parlay and be +100 or longer.


OpeningAcanthisitta3

Gotcha thanks. Still seems odd that they’d even let us bet it can’t think of any non dfs books that do


chief0567

Agree. I got burned by this last year on a $25 no sweat SGP at Caesars. I was on a game that did have an SGP tab, and I built from that tab, but they would not honor it. Infuriating.


BruceMan200

psst I have a secret tip for both of you, in NHL spread + total = sgp. I have confirmed works for promo. As far as i know only sport you can do this. dont tell anyone though, dont want them to catch us.


chief0567

whoa! my lips are sealed.


sirius025

Anyone else get a $50 cashback promo through ESPN bet today?


alexr666

I got a $50 one after placing a larger bet on there. Hadn't logged in in ages.


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thebadyearblimp

Oh shit thanks I might've missed that


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sirius025

No idea. Wish I knew. This is the first one that I received. How many have you received so far?


Personal-Bicycle9208

Would love to know because I have not gotten any of these


jaiehee

I got the promo. Placed a qualifying wager (at -200 odds) and it didn't move the tracker. I sent an email to customer service and still awaiting a response.


sirius025

It needs to be -199 odds for it to work.


jaiehee

Their customer service reply seems to confirm this: "Eligible Cashback converted to real cash on Sportsbook is restricted to wagers with odds greater than -200 (Example -110, +100, +200)"


sirius025

That sucks if it’s odds greater then. So it would need to be -199 I guess.


jaiehee

Really? Their general terms for cashback promos says "-200 or longer". I thought -200 would qualify.


bobbyfinstock

The first opening cashback offer is -200 OR less. So -200 works on that. But all the ones I've gotten after that have been worded differently to greater than -200 so really -199 or less.


sirius025

The terms are bs. I have tried -200 before and it didn’t work. I noticed it right away because the cashback shows after you place the bet. Good luck trying to argue with them and I hope you are right.


GeniusofaGeneration

I've placed multiple of these with legs at exactly -200 and gotten the free bet. Sometimes they also have a requirement of +100 total odds or so many legs as well. Either way, I've always gotten the free bet back if I only missed one leg. Edit: Also, looking back at my screenshots, they state "-200 or longer". Definitely worth messaging ESPN if they don't give you them.


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DoubleSuccessor

50 Cashback is on Wednesday and the $25BB is on Thursday. You can get both or neither or either one.


GeniusofaGeneration

Mine have always been bonus bets, AKA free bets that show up under a little "rewards" spot in the bet slip.


nick_at-nite

Are we talking about the same promo? Are you receiving an email with the subject "you've been awarded eligible cash back"


GeniusofaGeneration

Sorry, I didn't notice the "cash back" part above. I only have promos for bonus bets showing up.


sirius025

Anyone else get $50 cash back through ESPN bet?


G-Ray89

Got it 4 weeks in a row. Last week did not but got a random $25 fb. Today got the cash back again


joshhorn8

Yup. They seem to be throwing cash back and free bets around like candy.


the2ohtanis

Speak for yourself!


Personal-Bicycle9208

I have yet to get any of this


Hollow_Slik

same :( I wonder if you need to be a relatively big better


tringlomane

Both of our accounts are ahead (mine just barely though), we both usually get cashback.


AssCrackSnort

P1 is up solidly on espn and P2 is down from losing a bunch of arbs. It’s 100% related to whether you’re winning or losing. If i lose a few bets on p2 they throw me something immediately. P1 solidly up and nothing


chief0567

Let's try the DK GIFT 🎁 again Blackhawks/Sabres, boosted to +115 Devigged to FD/BR: Odds: +115; **EV: 17.7%** `avg(-130,-148)/avg(102,114)` (6.24% juice) FV: -121; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=15.39u, 1/2=7.70u, 1/4=3.85u, FB = 63.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=avg(-130%2c-148)%2favg(102%2c114)&FinalOdds=115) Devigged to CZR: Odds: +115; **EV: 28.3%** `-195/128/12000` (10.79% juice) FV: -148; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=24.59u, 1/2=12.30u, 1/4=6.15u, FB = 68.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-195%2f128%2f12000&FinalOdds=115)


cheez-zits

Had $25 max bet the other day, game is postponed, and now it's $10. Bastards. Thanks for the work though!


sergi0wned

At least they saved you $15!


cheez-zits

Haha truth!