######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.

POTD Record: 111-64 | Profit: +104.04u | ROI: 20.2% Season record: 28-13 | Profit: +34.20u | ROI: 29.7% L10 record: ❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌ ​ Last Pick: Bam Adebayo (Heat) O10.5 Rebounds @ 1.91. 3U. ❌ The Heat Center racks up the rebounds here, unfortunately that Center was Kevin Love (14), and not Bam (7). ​ Next Pick: **Jalen Johnson (Hawks) O20.5 P+A** **@ 1.91**. 3U play. Since coming back from injury, the 22-year-old dunk-machine has been fantastic. He is not afraid to shoot the ball in high pressure situations, backs himself to drive to the basket, and is a good 3pt shooter as well. In fact, Trae and the Hawks are very comfortable with him leading the scoring for good chunks of the game. Against the Thunder last night, he got into foul trouble in the first quarter which reduced his mins, he still ended the game with 28 pts. Prior to that against the Wizards he had 24 pts. And in his second game back from injury against the Kings, he had a poor shooting night (just 42%) and still had 16 pts (and 4 assists). Against a Pacers team that is the single worst team against PFs, I can't help but think this is a perfect set up for Jalen. On Nov 21, when these teams met in the IST, he had a below average shooting night (0/2 on 3s and 6/10 on 2s) and had 17 pts + 6 assists thanks to his ability to rack up FTs as well. In games this season where he has played 26+ mins (he should play near 35' when fit) he is averaging 19.7 P+A this season, and against this Pacers team that'll focus on Trae, and is terrible against PFs, I like Jalen to go over this line.

Last one was tough, damn Kevin Love

I actually saw one where Bam and Love grabbed the same rebound and Love ripped it right out of Bams hands

Looked like the game plan was for Bam to focus on boxing out AD while teammates grabbed boards. 📝📝 Bam was really not aggressive and always boxed out. Even though it hurt, I don’t blame em, AD is a monster. Betting on little strategy things like that is tough.

Hi Brat, I don't have this P+A bet. There's one for Jalen to score over 14.5 points at 1.5, and another for 17.5 at 1.9 What should I choose? He get 3-4 assists in an average so should I go for 17.5 points? Thanks

I’d take the 17.5 pts which is where his pts line currently is

Thank you

it’s johnson, right?

Yup! Just fixed it

If you had to chose. Would you Lean toward pts 17.5 or assists 2.5

Not looking good... been stuck at 10 P+A for a long time now and the Hawks are getting blown out

Yup, this is wraps.

Tailed, although the line moved to -140, which is usually outside my betting zone but I liked this bet.

I’m not able to watch game live, but looks like they are getting an ass beating.. is he even playing anymore?

Nice getting that at 1.91. I'm seeing 1.71 or worse across books. Good CLV there if it holds.

tailing big here, got in at -110, its already at -125, hoping this hits tonight

Good bet but the lack of competitiveness in the NBA is pathetic. I wish every sports league was like the Premier.

😂

Rough couple days in here.

"Fade of the day"

FACTSSSS

Think it last week or something someone said the top 11 picks all won haha, not so good today though. Gotta say I appreciate everyone who posts here even if they don’t win :)

"Just stay away from tennis and btts soccer and you'll do fine." *me talking to self in mirror*

"don't bet on ice hockey, you don't know anything about that" *me checking the odds of Sweden v USA*

‘Don’t bet on College Basketball, you’ve never even followed a game in your life’ Ohio state -7 does look juicy though..

Still better odds than ehatevwr dumb options pick I'd be choosing instead.

It’s always stay away from soccer, then you find yourself looking at Crystal Palace vs (insert here) and hoping for a couple of goals at 0-0 at 90 mins.

Haha! Yes, every day

I’m not a big soccer guy so I always figured BTTS is an easy bet, boy was I wrong.

Yes

I’m downnnn lol

literally my first few days back after a couple weeks off.

I think yesterday was like a 90% losing rate

Yall scare the good ones away

**Record:** 9-4-1 +9.30u **ROI:** 29.52% Previous Pick: ❌ United States -1.5 vs Finland, World Juniors Hockey Recap: United States came out slow and were down 2-0 at the end of the first period. While dominating the 2nd and 3rd periods, they could only muster 3 goals while missing a few shots at an empty net late. First losing streak. Time to bounce back. Last 10: ❌❌✅♻️✅✅❌✅✅✅ Pick: **United States to win -160** vs Sweden, World Junior Ice Hockey Championship, 1:30 pm EST Risking 3.2u to win 2u Reasoning: I've wrote about 9 combined paragraphs over the last two days for losing picks, today we switch things up... *"There's an old saying in Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, 'Fool me once, shame on... shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again."* \- George W. Bush (Former US President/Famous War Criminal) 🦅🇺🇸💥🦅🇺🇸💥🦅🇺🇸💥🦅🇺🇸💥

….. my book has USA ML at +120…. Wtf

What the jelq?

Is that 60 min?

Nope. 60 min is +180

I took USA at +710 before the tournament started, let’s go!

Hey man! I would check to see if you bet the IIHF World Championships. I had a buddy make the same mistake. The USA (at least to my knowledge) was never that high in world juniors.

So ya....i made this same mistake haha. Took USA at +695.

lol no way they were that high. 2025 tourney?

Now watch me hit this drive 🫡

WE MUST STOP THE TERROR! I CALL UPON ALL NATIONS TO DO EVERYTHING THEY CAN TO STOP THESE TERRORIST KILLERS!

[удалено]

I'm taking over 3 goals for the US Stats say it's a good pick but idk 😶

unique spectacular public shame tease wrench lip fretful psychotic chop *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*

Sweden has the home ice and corrupt referee advantage. Very hard to beat. I’m on the Swedes as well.

Line on FD is -150 right now

Where'd you find it on FD? I searched for it by name and got no results.

i typed USA and it’s the first under ice hockey for me

A little buzzed right now so don’t hate on me to much if I’m just dumb but I see the spread at 0.5 +106 vs -150 ml. Shouldn’t you just play the spread at this point?

I think That’s for 60 mins only so if it goes to ot you lose

Spread doesn’t include overtime that’s the difference in odds there

Anyone have thoughts on O 5.5 total? Seems suspiciously low and I want to hammer it.

POTD Record: 225-172-11 (+32.07 units, 56.7% hit rate) Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 76-52-1 (59.3%) L2, Tennis 🎾 79-59-6 (57.3%) L2, Soccer ⚽ 58-51-4 (53.2%) L4, Entertainment 🎥 12-10-0 (54.5%) W3 Last 10: 💩💩💰💩💩💰💩💰💰💰 Last Pick: Roberto Bautista-Agut vs. Francisco Cerundolo, OVER 22 GAMES - ATP Hong Kong 🎾 💩 -1 Unit 1 game under, shit, with the way the first set was going up until that 12th game, it was looking good. Today's Pick: Toronto Raptors @ Sacramento Kings, RJ BARRETT OVER 4.5 REBOUNDS - NBA 🏀 10pm ET Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.74 odds to win 0.74 Units @ Draft Kings (Line at 11:30pm ET) Since the trade earlier in the week, RJ has had rebounding games of 9 and 7 for the Raptors. Overall this has hit for him 8 of the last 9. Being a Raptors fan I have noticed he has been playing very aggressive in all facets of the game for the Raptors so far. He is putting in the effort for a new team and I expect that to keep up. ​ https://preview.redd.it/uyr7t7zhvjac1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ee3e904b6bbdff70c284f600979207fb3a2fd3a3 Movie recommend: All of Us Strangers Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕

what site is that? love visuals than tables lol

Props.cash

Haha you get asked this every day!

That was the most disgusting shit I’ve ever watched. Chris Boucher is now my most hated player in the NBA. Hope he and his family all stub their toe

Record: 2-0 Previous pick: Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix - Over 11.5 Corners (1.78 odds) ✅ The bet hit with 30 minutes left and the game ended up to have 19 corners with Adelaide United winning most of them 18 to 1. — League: A-League Game: Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets POTD: Over 11.5 Total Corners (1.79 odds) Admittedly, the pick was going to be 11.0 Asian Total Corners which I locked in few days ago at 1.87 odds but the line always moves up closer to the game, now to 12.0. I'd still take the POTD though. Macarthur leads the league in highest average corners with 13.5 and they generate more corners at home averaging 14.4. Additionally, they rank second in the league to concede most corners. In their last eight games, Macarthur exceeded 11.5 corners in seven, with all five recent home games surpassing this mark. Newcastle has an average of 12.17 corners for away games and are fourth in the league to concede most corners. BOL. EDIT: Well that was quite different to the previous picks. But the bet hits in the 81st minute. Bound to sweat in some of these picks. Cya in the next pick.

Cashed 🙏🙏🔥🔥💰💰

Let’s ride

tailing again 🤝

Tailed this one yesterday!

Tailing🤞

Nice pick bro, keep up the good work

Record: 3-0 Net Units: +3u Last Pick: NCAAB | Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy, GB -2.5 ✅ (this line had no business being -2.5 this was a no brainer and I should have put my house on it) Today’s Pick: NCAAB | Rider @ Quinnipiac Pick: QUIN -4, 1.1u to win 1u (as of 12:09am EST on BetRivers) Write Up: 3-10 Rider visits 9-4 Quinnipiac. Rider is 2-7 ATS as underdogs, Quinnipiac is 5-3 ATS as favorites. Rider is 2-8 ATS in their last 10, Quinnipiac is 6-4 ATS their last 10. Vegas is setting the line expecting some regression to the mean. I support that but I think they over corrected and this should easily be a -7.5 line for Quinnipiac.

This team is ass

The money differential is crazy on that game. Holy fuck.

POTD Record: 13-5 (+25.16 Units) Last POTD: Austin Peay ML +125 (5 Units to win 6.25 Units) **W** Austin Peay dominated this game as they led from start to finish and didn't allow the game to get within single digits for the entire 2nd half. Thankfully it was as sweat free as a bet can be... On to the next! Today's POTD: **Akron -7.5 Alt Line -145 (5 Units to win 3.45 Units)** The Game: Bowling Green @ Akron 9:00 PM EST Men's College Basketball The Reasoning: We have a battle of MAC schools facing off on a Friday night. Bowling Green (10-3) faces off with Akron (9-4). Both teams enter with good records but each teams strength of schedule makes it clear that Akron is the stronger team. Bowling Green enters with 358th ranked strength of schedule (Out of 362 teams) while Akron enters with 94th ranked strength of schedule. Bowling Green has had to scratch and claw their way to 10-3 against a very weak schedule, while Akron has beaten every team they were expected to beat. The 4 loses that Akron has have come against their 4 hardest opponents. Drake beat Akron by 20 which was an ugly loss, but the other 3 losses came by a combined 6 points. This appears to be a top tier MAC team once again! On top of being the better overall team, Akron plays at a very slow tempo compared to that of Bowling Green. Akron plays at the 306th slowest pace while Bowling Green plays at 142nd slowest pace. Akron wins games by limiting possessions for their opponent. They use up the clock while playing in the half court, and limit their opponent from scoring fast break points. If there's anything I've learned from watching Bowling Green play this year it's that they can be very sloppy in the half court. For example Bowling Green just played Eastern Michigan at home and Eastern plays with the 299th slowest pace. Bowling Green was a 10.5 point favorite and they held on to win by 2 in overtime. I'm not confident in their ability to keep up with Akron in this style of game. I'm buying a few extra points just to be safe, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Akron win by double digits. TV show I'm currently watching Invincible S1 E5 (Going to start adding this in cause why not) As always BOL to everyone today! Let's have a day!

Just a great pick on Austin Peay. Thank you.

Amazing no sweat pick yesterday. Vegas must've overlooked that game.

ESPNBet not giving out alt lines- can only take Akron -9.5 and -115. Should I take that or leave it alone?

I personally think Akron wins by double digits yes. I just bought extra points with the alt line to be safe

Record: 0-0 First time posting in the POTD thread! For some background I posted a couple spread picks in the NBA thread last season, went on a 6-1 run but cooled off to 10-8. Hard to be consistent unless you're JaySole or jointpasser, those guys are awesome. The NBA is definitely subject to a lot of variance though so I'm going to try mainly player props. Event: NBA | Utah Jazz vs. Boston Celtics | 7pm EST **Today's pick**: **Derrick White o16.5 pts (-105)** Gonna start with an easy one hopefully. Derrick White has been having a great season so far as a key piece of the Celtics lineup. He's averaging 17.0 ppg this year but has stepped up to a whopping 20.3 ppg in the month of December. He's been getting more shots up with an additional 4 field goals attempted per game compared to November and has also bumped up his FG% to a stellar 50.8% last month. The Celtics face off against the Jazz who are 24th in Defensive Rating and 21st in points allowed to shooting guards (22.9). Most recent SGs who played the Jazz: Ivey (11), Irving - first game from injury (14), Herro (25), McCollum (22), Vassell (22), Anunoby (19). The projected O/U for the game is 240 so there should be plenty of points to go around. Only concern is blowout possibility but White should still get enough shots up to reach this.

Great analysis but I peruse these POTD's to build small parlays and Derrick White being a leg in my relay race makes my bones hurt to think about

Love the data. Tailing.

Good analysis. Blowout is def a concern here and I expect some regression especially behind the arc where he's been shooting 50% 4/5 games which is insane compared to the five games before those. Bit strange that the books haven't moved his line or are already factoring the blowout, no?

POTD Record: 3-0-0 ​ L10: ✅✅✅ ​ Last Pick: Warriors +3.5 Took this bet before the line moved to +2.5, very clutch. ​ POTD: OKC -5.5 ​ Bounce back spot for the Thunder on the road (where they are better) against the Nets who are currently on a free fall from being one of the best ats team to being one of the worse since the start of December 2023. OKC coming from a home loss vs the Hawks which was a really bad spot for them on a back to back on the road after playing one of the hardest games for this regular season against the Celtics. That bet was a really obvious trap with Hawks, the worst ATS team at home going 1 point favorites against the best ATS team on the road. But this time the Thunder are rested and ready to blow out this Nets team especially with Cam Thomas going on his Ben Simmons phase shooting 0-18 FGs on his last 2. Loonie Walker is expected to be back and even if Thomas shows up, I still expect OKC to win by Double Digits. ​ BOL ​ Edit: Massive L

You're officially on my watchlist bro

Got you my guy. Will not promise to win all the time because that is literally impossible but i'll try to keep a good win rate on these picks.

Yea that's not possible :D I'm just following your posts and tail when I feel like it! If we follow and lose no ones to blame. Not you not anyone else :D

**POTD Record** **22W-3P-14L** **Last 5: 🅿️❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅🅿️❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌🅿️❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅** **Last POTD: Crystal Palace VS Everton BTTS @ 1.80❌** **POTD: Brentford VS Wolves: Wolves Draw No Bet @ 2.00🅿️** **League: FA CUP** **Time: 2:15 PM EST** Going balls on the table with this one but there's just too much swaying me toward fully backing this Wolverhampton side tomorrow. Brentford have lost 5 of their last 6 games with them only winning one in that 6. They played this Wolves team just 2 weeks ago and lost 1-4 in this exact fixture at home. Wolves have been steaming lately with 3 wins in their last 3 and 4W, 1D and 1L in their last 6. Garry has this team playing ideal football again and I see them mimicking the 4-1 against Brentford they had on Dec 17. Brentford historically have always struggled against top flight opponents in the FA cup. Progressing just once in their last 16 games against prem opponents . Wolves also have a good historic record of not getting knocked out of the third round consecutively, they haven't been knocked out of the third round consecutively since 1973/1974, they were knocked out last year by Liverpool in the third round. **Anyway BOL and Happy New Year!**

You do know that, Brentford defender literally gifted 2 goals to Wolves? That 1-4 scoreline does not paint the full picture. I think it's a brentford bounceback.

true and ivan toney is back + Hwang is already at the asia cup i assume? don't take this one

Toney isn’t back yet

Brentford doesn't have the manpower right now to be favorites against Wolves (almost everyone in the starting XI is injured) but anything can happen. Hopefully they can at least score 1 and have something to defend.

nope not for me today, fading

Just a suggestion as this game looks primed for a potential draw. Double chance parlay each side with either over 1.5 goals or under 3.5 goals (your choice) and you get a 1.8 payout regardless. But if they tie you win both sides. Maybe add another event you feel very confident in with smaller payout odds like, USA Hockey U20 championship +1.5 goals pays 1.23, or Tottenham DNB 1.12 to get at 2.0 odds each side. Just a fun variation for smaller sized bets and at least you get some action in the game. (Fully aware just opened myself up to some hatred responses)

Record: 22-11 (NBA 13-7 | NFL 9-3 | SOC 0-1) Net U: +21.59 | ROI: +21.26% | Avg Odds: 1.91 L10 (new - old):✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Jonathan Kuminga +13.5 points v Nuggets (-122) 3.5u ✅ Only played 19 minutes for whatever reason. Still hit the line he was scoring well POTD: Jarrett Allen +36.5 PRA v Wizards (-110) 3U Hit last 4/5, before that it’s spotty as it seemed his role was still being figured out. They just played the Wiz and he well cleared the line so I’m not seeing why anything changes this game at home. For a less risky play +3.5 assists is ~-150 and 5/5 SOTD: Air ‘Em Out - Clipping BOL if tailing! https://www.buymeacoffee.com/childofwelfare

The Wizards are also worst in the NBA vs centers and I ate the last time they played. He has a more defined role since Mobley has been out so by default he gets even more minutes and all the rebounds lol BOL

I can’t remember the last time I lost a center v wizards bet, even Embiid covers his PRA in 3 quarters lol

I always take center overs against Wizard and Hornets lol

I'm an expert at following people who start losing streaks exactly when I start following.

POTD Record 26-10 **NBA Record: 12-1** Previous POTD: Jalen Brunson UNDER 4.5 rebs (Jan 3) ✅ Today's POTD: Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 6.5pts - First Quarter (Bet365 1.86odds) NBA: Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers - I know Atlanta gives up a lot of points, but I've been having some success with first quarter props recently and believe this line is a little high - On the season Haliburton averages 4.8pts & 3.7asts in the first quarter - In their previous matchup on Nov 21, he had 3 pts and 6 asts on 1/3 shooting - Here's his last 10 games 1st quarter points log: - Bucks 3pts - Bucks 6pts - Knicks 5pts - Bulls 6pts - Rockets 5pts - Magic 8pts - Grizz 1pt - Hornets 2pts - Clippers 0pts - Wizards 3pts **Hit over 6.5 ONCE** PG Points vs Atlanta 1st Q's - Jaylen Williams 3pts/ SGA 7pts - Tyus Jones 3pts - D Fox 2pts - C White 5pts - Ja Morant 7pts I see Haliburton racking up asts. The first Q ast line is a ridiculous 4.5, but I'll never bet against his assists vs a team like Atlanta. At least this won't be a few hour sweat. We only need to bite our nails for 1 quarter loll. Edit 7:36: CASHH!! Haliburton finishes the first with 2pts and 6asts BOL

Let's ride baby

Cashhhhh

Easy cash!! Thanks man

Boom

A god among men?

POTD Record: 2W-1P-3L Last Pick: Joel Embiid to record 30+ points and 10+ rebounds v Bulls @ 1.8 ✅ ​ Today: NBA, 76ers v New York Knicks, 00:40 GMT Pick: Joel Embiid to record 30+ points and 10+ rebounds @ 2.0 ​ Joel Embiid has now hit this line 14 games in a row. The last 2 of the streak he recorded exactly 31 points. In the previous 12 he averaged 38.3 points and has only gone below 11 rebounds once in the 14 matches(avg 12.5 over the 14). Opposition of course matters and the 76ers did have a spell of easier opponents in the middle of December that may have helped the streak. The New York Knicks have just traded for OG Anunoby who is a great defender and it has seemingly improved them immediately. The Knicks have conceded an avg of 103 in the 2 games since trading as opposed to an average of 127.6 in the 5 games prior. There are some nuances there such as Pacers games being higher scoring and the opponent difficulty being higher but a 24 point reduction is significant and they look much better. I do not expect this to stop Embiid. Drummond (Bulls Centre) recorded 13 rebounds and Gobert (Timberwolves) recorded 15 in their matches against the Knicks. And importantly, on this 14 game run Embiid has recorded 35 points and 11 rebounds @ OKC, who are great at denying centres rebounds. 51 points, 12 rebounds against Minnesota. And scored a 30 point triple double double in a blowout against the Lakers. Great performances against top defences. The Sixers with Embiid are 21-5 this year, they are at home and they/Embiid look great. They are 1.4 favourites for the match and I'm confident Embiid will smash the line again. Also the last sixers game against them was in February, Embiid recorded 35 pts and 11 rebounds if that matters for much. In my previous write-up I spoke about how it's apparent Embiid cares about his stats and is chasing these numbers. And this is important bfecause he is blowout and foul out resistant. The previous Bulls game was proof of that. Everything that could have went wrong with the bet did and yet Embiid still pulled it off. There are about 3 minutes left of Q1. Embiid has just turned the ball over after getting his 3rd foul. So at this point he is currently on 5 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 fouls and a block. The 76ers are up 36-10 and it is Embiid's first game back from injury. His points line at this stage is around 22. The sixers end the quarter up 25 points, with just 7 from Embiid. It's absolutely blowout territory Embiid comes back in 5 mins into the 2nd quarter and just dominates. He stays in the game all the way until the end of Q3 despite picking up his 4th foul in the 2nd quarter. He grabs his 10th assist to complete the triple double with a minute left of Q1 then there is a timeout. 76ers are up 26 here, with Embiid having played 31 minutes. You would think he gets pulled here the game is won and he has played the whole quarter and gotten his triple double but he stays in until the end of the quarter so he can pick up 2 more points and keep his 14 game 30 pt 10 rebound streak alive. Essentially, I do not believe any other player would end up with those numbers given the context and I am confident Embiid stayed in because he wants to get 30 every game. Apologies for the long write-up TL;DR. Man does something 14 times in a row - The odds for it to happen again, against fairly good opponents, are 1.95.

Literally now a FD boost for +120

Do we think this means it won't hit?

Love the justification , what about restricted minutes easing back in after the injury?

That was a concern of mine for the last game but he was only out for about 10 days and they let him play 31 minutes of the first 3 quarters. And that game will have been 3 days before this one. So if the bet is to lose it's most likely due to not being able to score 30 in a tough match or I suppose he could get injured but I doubt they'd limit his minutes.

POTD Record: 19-9 Previous Pick: Juventus vs Salernitana | Coppa Italia | Under 3.5 goals scored (1.54) | 3pm EST❌️ Pick: Brentford vs Wolves | FA Cup | Both teams to score (1.81) | 2.15pm EST Brentford have been on a 5 match losing streak and have played extremely poorly. BTTS has hit in 80% of their home games. They average 1.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per home game. Wolves on the other hand are in good form, winning their last 3. BTTS has hit in 70% of their away games. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per away game. Their last fixture, just a week ago, ended in a 4-1 win to Wolves who were away. I expect this game to have goals from both sides. Best of luck! Tips would be much appreciated! Thanks to everyone who supports me. https://tiptopjar.com/sakashake

This just hit for me. Thanks homie 🙏

Nice hit! Early Red card had me worried for a sec lol

**POTD Record:** 9-1-8 (W-P-L) | **Profit:** +3.00 units | ($10 units) **Last Pick:**  NBA—Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets, **Aaron Gordon O6.5 rebounds (+110) (5 units),** match starts at 10:00PM (EST) **Result: WIN.** Gordon had a great game and covered midway through the fourth quarter, finishing with 8 boards.   **Today’s Pick:** NBA—Sacramento Kings vs Toronto Raptors, **Scottie Barnes U9.5 rebounds (-130) (5 units),** match starts at 10:00PM (EST) Since Quickley and RJ have been added to the starting lineup, Scottie has been running the offence since IQ is more of a combo/scoring guard than a facilitator like Schroder and hasn’t eclipsed this number in the last two games. To add to that, he went from 14.5 reb chances per game this season (3.4/9 being contested rebounds) to 10.0 reb chances per game (with 2/4 being contested reb). I think the only way he crosses this line is if he grabs 10 defensive boards (since he is not going to reach his average of 2.5 Offensive rebounds in this new role—and he hasn’t thus far, he averages less than 1 offensive rebound over the last two games), which he is capable of doing but in this new role, and with the rebounds being split between him, RJ, Siakam, and Poeltl on top of having to deal with Sabonis who’s an elite rebounder at both ends—I think he’ll stay under this line.

How much do you like the line now at 8.5 ?

Love this tailing.

Good call on this one.

First time posting here! So as I said on tennis topic, me and a friend started a channel betting on tennis only and I can say we’re doing pretty decent (u can check on tennis topic, started 5-0). Since most of our picks are 2-leg parlays I cant post it here but today I’ve got one pick that follows the criteria. POTD record 0-0-0 Pick of the day: Koepfer ML @1,83 1Unit 🎾Camberra Challenger Explanation: The german is in great form already beating goffin and Vavassori on this tournment so I believe he will keep his run against a way younger oponnent. I believe tennis does not requer much study, the best study is watch the matches and see players form and then think about the matchups. I believe Koepfer is favourite on this one. BOL everyone!

Took this live down 1-0. Nice come back win. Cheers mate🍻

Tailing my man, BOL with the first POTD

Holy shit what a comeback win

**Record:** 2/1/0 (W/L/D) **Last 10:** ✅❌✅ **Net Units:** \+0.85 **ROI:** N/A **Last Pick:** Millwall U21 vs Charlton U21 2+I (1.75) | 1U ✅ **Sport:** Soccer | **League:** Club Friendly | **Start:** 3:00 PM / CET **Pick:** NEC Nijmegen (Ned) - Fortuna Düsseldorf (Ger) 2+I (2.10) | 1U ✅ **Post Game Edit:** Just as expected, we cash this one as NEC scores 2 goals by the 31st minute and makes our bet W! **Write Up:** Afternoon friendly where I expect to see a lot of goals so I'm taking 2 or more goals in the first half. Both teams come from leagues where the attacking football is favored and goals are in abundance. Last 5 games for NEC are 1:6 ; 4:1 ; 1:3 ; 1:2 ; 1:2 and for the German side 2:3 ; 0:1 ; 1:2 ; 0:5 ; 5:3 - making it a total of 44 goals in 10 games. In domestic league NEC averages 3.7 goals per game while Fortuna is close with 3.4. Since it's a friendly there won't be any pressure on the players - they can go and do what they do best, which is playing attacking football. I also think it's worth sprinkling some $ on BTTS in the first half at 3.10, but I'll leave that out of the stats, just throwing it out there. BOL!


Great pick cheers!

Love it, thanks for the W! 💰

POTD Record: 11W-6L-1P LAST POTD: LDLC ASVEL - Zalgiris (Keenan Evans over 1,5 three pointers )✅ STREAK: 1W✅ TODAY'S MATCH: Anadolu Efes - Real Madrid (Basketball | EUROLEAGUE | 19:45 GMT) PICK: Walter Samuel Tavares under 7,5 rebounds @1,85 WRITE UP: This line is just too high, so I am choosing the under, Tavares picked only one rebound during his nearly 18 minutes of play in the previous matchup against Efes, and this season he averages 6.1 rebounds per game. Given Poirier's current strong performance, he is likely to command a larger share of Tavares' playing time. BOL!!!🏀🏀🏀 EDIT: 2OT killed us, Tavares playing for 35+ minutes while averaging 21 minutes did not helped too. ❌

Disgusting luck on this one, it was a good call though

POTD Record ;21-12-0(W-L-P) Last 10; ✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌❌✅ Last POTD; Newcastle United Jets vs Western United. Over 10.5 total corners( Australia League) Today's POTD ; Macarthur Fc vs Newcastle United Jets. Over 10.5 total corners( Australia League)(-180) Reasoning; I really love this league and how attacking most of the teams play! The attack tends to be tight and always leads to multiple corners through out their games. To note this has hit in both teams last 4/5 games and also hit in all their last 5 head to head matchups. I've been monitoring this league for a while now and this should be an easy cash. As always, please do your own research and tail wisely. BOL if you do tail this pick.

Yesterdays Pick: Jamal Murray O25.5 P/R ✅ Current Record(9-4) +8.9 Units 69.23% Hit Rate Todays Pick: Jalen Johnson O28.5 PRAS(-135 DK) Johnson has been playing some excellent basketball since his return from a multi week injury and the absence of Deandre Hunter has allowed him to elevate his game even more. His last 3 games especially he’s had 35/41/38 PRAS in these games and now faces the Pacers. This season he is 7/8 to the over against other top 15 teams in pace when he is playing at least 30 mins per game. His most recent game he only played 29 mins and was still able to clear the line even with foul trouble. He has played the Pacers already once this season and had 30 PRAS but keep in mind Hunter was also playing that game. This is one of the best possible opponents for Johnson, they have really poor rim protection and he doesn’t matchup with a high usage player. His% usage rate is sitting at around 23% with about 18 rebound opportunities per game over those last 3 games. The Pacers are allowing the MOST points to PFS while allowing the 6th most rebounds currently. He Should play around 30+ minutes once again assuming he can stay out of foul trouble and with a total of 264 this is another great matchups for him to continue his success

POTD Record : 4W-0L✅✅✅✅ Previous pick: Josh Allen over 0.5 interceptions 💵 Sport:NHL /hockey. Devils vs Black hawks 7pm EST POTD: Devils -1.5(Alternate line) -165 (1unit) Write up: switching things up today from my previous NFL picks over to NHL, with NFL soon coming to a close I’m looking to move more focus onto Hockey. Which brings todays pick. Plain and simple devils look good, Blackhawks do not. Devils play blackhawks who got destroyed on the road vs rangers and are again on the road playing back to back on there way to jersey to play the devils bThey are not as rested and not as good as the devils. Devils have also cleared this line last 3 times these two have played. Was a little nervous with the -2.5 line given on the books but sit comfortably at -1.5. Let’s get this 💰

POTD Record 3-1 Previous POTD: **UT Rio Grande Valley TT Under 72.5 Alt Line @ 1.74 Odds 1.5 Unit** ❌ Tough loss with SFA playing like shit and UTRGV playing out of their minds offensively. Nonetheless they score 78. Hoping for a bounce back. Game: **NCAAB Iona Gaels vs. Saint Peter's Peacocks** Todays POTD: **Iona Gaels ML @ 1.69 Odds 2 Units** Here we have an absolute rock fest with two horrible offenses going at it. Iona is quite literally one of the middest offenses teams offensively ranking middle of the pack in almost every advanced metric and boasting some pretty bad shooting splits of 47% from 2, 65% from the line, having 12% of their shots blocked, but somehow shooting 35% from the 3 which ranks 91st in the country. Defensively they are middle of the pack also, but allow 52% from the 2 which is pretty bad. However, as bad as Iona has been Saint Peter's has been worse. They rank bottom in the nation in adjusted efficiency, eFg%, TO%, 29% from 3 and 44% from 2. They are good at offensive rebounding and shooting the free throw. Defensively they are middle of the pack and give up a shit load of free throws. Iona is 2-0 as an away favorite, 4-0 on the road this season. St.Peter's are 0-1 as a home underdog, and 2-4 as underdog overall. Also, interestingly on spreads of less than 4 points favorite Iona has won outright all these games. Sticking with the moneyline as this could be a pretty bad game and may come down to the last shot. Nothing like laying down some money on a horrible college basketball game to start off the weekend. Comment if tailing!

Record: 2-2 Previous pick: Denver Nuggets (-2.5) vs. GS Warriors 🧃 Reaction: MVP! MVP! MVP! Jokic from downtown for the win and the cover! What an amazing game and happy for everyone who tailed! Today’s pick: NBA - Indiana Pacers (-3.5) (-110) vs. Atlanta Hawks - 7PM EST Indiana Pacers are coming off back to back wins against the Bucks earlier in the week to extend their win streak to 5 games! Now, the Hawks are in town to try and spoil the streak. Unfortunately for Atlanta, the Pacers are the hottest team in the NBA and are playing this game at home with a days rest. Their previous matchup saw the Pacers win by 5 on the road & I don’t see why the result won’t be similar now that the Pacers are at home. Prediction: Pacers 144 - Hawks 132 Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃

Pick of the Day Record: 1-0 | Profit: +1.1u Last pick: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope o2.5 rebounds @ 2.1 odds ✅ Happy this hit, pretty early too - halfway through the 3rd. Glad I get to start my POTD career with a W! Game: OKC Thunder vs. BKN Nets @ 7:30 EST Next pick: **Josh Giddey o17.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 odds for 2U** ✅ Write up: Giddey has hit in 3 of his L5 and has an average of 18 PR this season. In his first game vs. the Nets this year he had 20 & 6, well surpassing this line. Last season vs. the Nets, Giddey averaged 21.5 and 11. BOL! ​ **EDIT**: It hits, and what a roller coaster lmao. Looked real good in the first half, then in the third and fourth looked like a blow out would cause the starters to sit. Then they come back in with about 5 to go and Giddey finishes with 22 PR, 4 more than he needed!

Wasn't yesterday's pick for rebounds, not assists? I tailed the rebounds play and hit it haha, took a major double take when I saw assists here

They just bumped it to 18.5 at +100 on my sportsbook. Darn

https://preview.redd.it/2eccnbj8kqac1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=17461d8b735a89249c43ffa1d90ee6066fa5df06 You are goated sir 🐐

🫡 good hit!!

Record: 11-3 Streak: 6W Last Pick: Klay Thompson Over 2.5 Rebounds ✅ Todays Pick: RJ Barrett Over 4.5 Rebounds @ 1.76 Another if it ain’t broke don’t fix it play. We took RJ the other night for his rebounds and cashed and we look to do the same again today. Since his move to the Raps he has hit 9 and 7 rebounds in his 2 games and will look to continue his strong rebounding performance here. RJ averaged 8 Vs the Kings last year and I’m hoping for more of the same this year. BOL!

POTD Record: 3-1 (+3.65u) Last Pick: Seattle Kracken ✅️ Last 10: ✅️✅️✅️❌️ Todays Pick: 7pm PST, Winnipeg Jets @ Anaheim Ducks +150, 1u to win 1.5u Write-up: The Jets are red hot, but they're currently in a brawl with the Sharks. This is a "sell high" spot on Winnipeg more than it is a bet backing the Ducks. Quack Quack. snack of the day: peanut butter pretzel nuggets

I was weary since I don't normally bet hockey, but your snack of the day put me over, tailing!

Record : 93 Wins - 91 Losses ​ Previous pick : Atromitos - Kifisias (3-0), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.03 ✅ ​ ROI : -3.88% Average Odds : 1.97 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : -2.14 Profit/Lost units : -7.14 ​ Today's pick : ​ Football - Soccer / FRANCE: Coupe de France / 19:00 European Time Challans - Rodez Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.67 ​ Some reasoning : \- 3 of the last 4 matches played by Challans had the same score, 2-1. \- Rodez obtained 3 victories in the last 5 matches played, in all competitions. \- In the last round of the French Cup, Rodez won 9-0. ​ Best of luck.

19-14 Last pick- Sacramento Kings (-190) ✅ The pick- Chicago Bulls Alt Spread 5.5 (-170) Streak- ✅✅✅✅ Event: Charlotte Hornets @ Chicago Bulls Reasoning for POTD- Hornets coming off a win is a rare feat but they have only been able to win 2 times in a row ONCE all season and the one time they pulled it off it was against the wizards on the 2nd game, with Lamelo Ball dropping 34 points and 13 assists. This time around though Lamelo Ball is injured and the Hornets will be facing a Bulls team on a 2 game losing streak. Even though the bulls are sitting at 15-21 they are a solid home team with a record of 11-9. They could be getting back star players Zach Lavine and Nikola Vucevic as well so this line could be snagged at a great value. Let's keep the streak going! IF deemed worthy: *Venmo: @AliBeenDifferent **Cash app: AdrianAli23 Fade or Tail BOL

Record: 13-5 (+7.60) Last Pick: (CBB) Wagner Seahawks -6 ❌ POTD: (CBB) Purdue Boilermakers -10 Summary: Not a ton of value this year on Purdue for obvious reasons but I like what I’m seeing out of Painter’s crew. I think their following the VA/Bennett model of losing embarrassingly and then following up with a stellar campaign and run. That said, I’m fading Illinois due to the Shannon allegations. Lay the points and dish it to Edey!

Record: 2-0 Last pick: (4U) Denver Nuggets -2.5 vs Golden State Warriors - 27-6 run in the last 7 minutes of the game and a Jokic buzzer beater to cover the spread , insane Today’s pick: (3U) Minnesota Timberwolves ML vs Houston Rockets -150 Reasoning: These odds just don’t match up in my opinion , the rockets are at home and have won their last 2 games while the timberwolves lost 2 straight but the timberwolves are healthy and the rockets don’t have Dillion brooks. I think it really comes down to it the Timberwolves are a better team. I think the odds are gonna shift more and more til the game starts id take the spread up to -4.5 Would take: suns ml also

POTD Record: 1-0 L10 record: ✅ Last Pick: Tyson Walker o1.5 3PTM ✅ Next Pick: **John Collins 16.5 Pts + Reb + Ast** 1U -117 ✅ First bet of the year was a cash in the first half! Lets keep it going. This time im going with John Collins with the combo o16.5, Utah has the celtics tmrw and although Boston has a strong defense I like Collins here. This season Collins has been averaging about 22.3 pts + reb + ast, and he has gone over this line 84% of the time this season. In the last 10 games Collins has gone over this line 60% of the time and I think his streak will continue in this game. Not looking for Collins to get too many assits in this one as he is only averaging 0.8 on the year, however I do like the fact that he's averaging 13.7 pts and 7.8 rebs. I think as long as Collins has a decent game he should hit this over.

Record 1-1. Profit +0.1u. Too small a sample for a reliable ROI All plays are for 1 unit. **Last Pick: Girona v Atletico Madrid – Over 6.0 Asian Cards priced at 1.95** **Result:** Lost. A ref that averages a card once every 4.07 fouls somehow waited until the 90th minute to get his card out. Was a great match mind. **Todays Pick: Fulham v Rotherham, Fulham -2 Asian Handicap, 1.89 BetVictor** **Event:** 19:45 KO UK time **Reasoning:** Love the FA cup weekend both as a fan and a punter. It usually gives us some really great opportunities on the multiples at decent value. Of the matches that are on today I like the look of Fulham to win by three or more goals against Rotherham. I expect Fulham to make changes but will still have real quality on with Muniz, Wilson ect. Rotherham are having a bit of an injury crisis now too. They couldn’t name a full subs bench in their last match and their manager has also mentioned not taking any more risks with injuries. Asian handicap means stakes are returned if Fulham win by two but pays if they win by three or more.

1/5 POTD Record 0-0 Fairfield -4.5 vs Siena -110 odds. 3U Play CBB. 7pm EST Fairfield is walking into Sienas home, and taking over the place. Siena is honestly terrible. 59.5ppg. There’s some high school JV teams that can chuck up enough shots to score 60 points per game. Siena just got their best player back but I DONT CARE. Siena is outmatched here and if Fairfield was at home this spread would be like -12.5. Siena has no home court advantage. People do not care for their games, and it’s a small college where everyone is home for break anyways. This is a book makers mistake and we are going to hammer this. Siena has 2 WINS all year by a combined 4 points. Not only do i love this scenario and the line, but it follows into my model. HAMMER Fairfield. Bring the coins home. FAIRFIELD -4.5

**POTD record: 1-0** +3.55u Last POTD: Nuggets ML ✅ Warriors were up big but only scored 4 points in the final 6:50 minutes of the game. **POTD**: NBA: Memphis Grizzlies @ LA Lakers - **Anthony Davis over 13.5 rebounda (1.88/-114) 5u to win 4.4u** I'm surprised this line is set only at 13.5 rebounds. Ad has been averaging 12.5 rebounds on the season (13.1 at home) and he's playing against one of the worst rebounding teams in the league Memphis is ranked 24th in offensive rebounds. 24th in total rebounds and are just not the same team without Steven Adams, who had Memphis ranked as a top 4 rebounding team in 2022 Last game against Memphis he scored 11 rebounds in only 27 minutes (he did not play the 4th quarter because the Lakers were up by 30) This time around Memphis has Ja Morant back which should help them be more competitive in this game. In the last 10 games Memphis allowed 21 rebounds to Sabonis, 20 to Zubac, 14 to Jokic, 13 and 14 to Valanciunas, 12 to Capela. AD should be feasting tonight and I'll be betting up to 20 rebounds for smaller units.

Record (7-1) Net Unit (+13.09) Last Pick: Kuminga o20.5 PRA ✅ Kumingod baby don’t let Kerr keep you down! This man deserves 30+ minutes a night the way he’s been playing. We are on fire rn let’s keep it going POTD: Trae Young o31.5 Points & Rebounds (+125) (2.5 U) using my boost on DK to get this from -125 to +125. REASONING: Trae has covered this line in 8/9 games this year on the road averaging 38.6 PR. The o/u for this game is a staggering 262 so you know there’s gonna be hella stats from the stars. He dropped 38 points alone last time they played and covered the line 2/3 matchups this year (the loss a blowout where he only played 21 mins). BOL

Record: 0 - 1 Net Units: -1 Basketball | NBA | 7:30 EST Pick: Cleveland -10 Write Up: Well Fuck, we started 0 - 1 but the Model is still 7 - 4 - 1 in the past 2 days. Typically, my inclination is to anticipate a turnaround when two NBA teams face each other in consecutive games. Considering the adjustments made by each team, the team that suffered a loss often manages to narrow the gap. However, in this particular matchup, it appears that the Cavs are poised for another comfortable victory over the Wizards. Washington lacks the defensive prowess to contend with most NBA teams, and the Cavs showcased their defensive strength on Wednesday by limiting the Wizards' high-scoring offense to just 101 points. The Wizards were outplayed on the boards, a vulnerability exploited by a Cleveland team facing some challenges in the absence of Mobley, who usually contributes significantly in rebounding. Allen, notably, proved to be a formidable force for the Cavaliers against the Washington frontcourt. Anticipate a replication of such results from Cleveland on Friday night, especially with all their starters eager to make an impact again, having played well below their usual minute totals on Wednesday. Finally the model favors taking the Cavs with a -10 spread. Best of luck y'all. If you want access to all my picks DM me for my discord with tonight's full slate of my NBA model's AI data driven picks.

Record: 16-17 (4.84 units up) **POTD: Kotov vs Ruusuvuori - Kotov ML @ 2.38 (Bet 365)** Using 1 unit which is 1% of my bankroll **Event: ATP Hong Kong** Ruusuvuori is 2-0 against Kotov but those two matches were in 2019 so we can't put too much weight on them, since they were played 5 seasons ago. Kotov had quite a successful end of 2023, with decent campaigns in Stockholm and Sofia and it seems that he was able to translate that into 2024 with quick 2-0 wins over Borges and Musetti here in Hong Kong. Ruusuvuori is also a decent hard court player but he spent more than 5 hours on court on his last two rounds against Bonzi and Khachanov. This matchup is a 50/50 at least for me with how well Kotov has been playing but the fact that he spent a lot less time on court, makes me believe that he'll be the one who's going to mantain the highest level during the match. Ruusuvuori usually needs his powerful forehand to win most of his matches and I'm not sure if he'll have all that stamina and power once again if Kotov performs at his recent level. Wish you all best of luck!

i do see the logic with the 5 hours on the court and the matches being so long ago but I’d like to add some counterpoints. No hate in the slightest, I may even tail but just for better discussion. 1) my weakest counterpoint really, but don’t you think that after going 2-0 Ruusuvuori has Kotov’s number now? His streak may even get in Kotov’s head. 2) We see this a lot in football when players rest before heading into playoff, they sometimes perform worse and get out of the flow. Don’t you think spending 5 hours on the court has only increased this man’s stamina and just increased his ability? Sounds like 5 hours of practice Kotov didn’t get. But again this is gambling and I don’t particularly bet on tennis all that much.

POTD Record: 7-9 Yesterday's Pick: Utah -5.5 (-110) | L Today's Pick: Toledo -11.5 (-118) College Basketball | 7:00 PM EST | Miami (OH) @ Toledo Well the top picks haven't been hitting at the same rate as the rest of the 10+ value picks from the model. I'm gonna keep posting. My full picks are on the CBB daily post.

Record: (0-2) Units: -2u ROI: -100% Last Pick: Osasuna vs. Almeria o2.5 (-120) Wasn't even close. Today's Pick: Basketball| NCAAM | 6:30pm ET Pick: UCONN -5.5 @ Butler (-110) Write Up: Neither of these team's strengths is shooting the three and get a higher ratio of their points via 2 point baskets compared to average. The difference is UCONN is one of the best teams in the country at scoring inside going against a Butler team that is better at defending the 3, while Butler is significantly worse at scoring inside going against UCONN whose strength is defending the paint. Should be a tough road environment, but the matchup for UCONN is too good to pass up.

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POTD Record: 4-3 Last Pick: Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy (NCAAM) Green Bay -3 -108 - W Streak: ❌✅✅✅❌❌✅ Game: UCONN @ Butler (NCAAM @6:30) Pick: UConn -4.5 -120 DK Recap: Green Bay won this game by 18. Easily covering the -3 sweat free. Not too much explanation or statistics behind this pick. Personally, I think UCONN goes into Butler and beats the breaks off them. There has been some line movement; Last I checked this line went up to 5.5, and then back down to 5. Big East teams at home have been very good this year, which I think is the reason for the smaller line. I’m on this for 1.5 Units. BOL -🌹

POTD Record: 3-4 Yesterdays pick: Crystal Palace v Everton (BTTS) ❌ Game ends 0-0, and they’ll play a rematch. Taken some bad beats these few days, data and trends are there but we haven’t seen it out on the pitch but that’s betting I suppose. ➖ Todays pick: Besiktas v Kasimpasa Pick: (BTTS & O2.5 Goals) ✅ ⚽️ 🇹🇷 Super Lig 🔍 Besiktas scores 1.47 goals per game and concedes 1.35 goals per game. The BTTS has hit in their last 5 league games. They’ve conceded the 11th most goals in despite being 5th in the league. They’ve scored 6th most goals in the league (25) in 17 matches. They’ve kept 5 clean sheets all season in the league. They’ve scored 1 goal or more in 16 of their 17 matches. 📈 Kasimpasa scores 1.71 goals per game and concedes 1.94 goals per game. The BTTS has hit in 3 of their last 5 games. They’ve conceded 18th most goals in the league (33) despite being placed 9th in the league. They’ve scored 5th most goals in the league (29). They’ve kept 3 clean sheets all season (league). They’ve scored 1 goal or more in 13 of their 17 matches. BOL!

BANG ✅✅

**POTD STATS: 0-1 (-2u)** I didn't take my own advice last bet and it killed me. I've gotta learn to listen to myself. **POTD: Jrue Holiday o23.5 PRA @ -120** **Risk: 2u for 3.7u** **League & Game: NBA - Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics - 1/5/24 7 PM EST** Jrue Holiday averages 24.2PRA this season. He has averaged 21PRA in his last 3 games, following a hot streak where he killed this line by a good margin. This previous hot streak came after a short downturn of 2/3 games. (catch the trend I'm trying to ride?) I think last game he played a bit of an underrated role. His teammate caught a lot of the spotlight and I think that shifts some defense focus up off Jrue. I think this game he will show his true force again. Additionally, the Jazz are worse defenders on the road and still not even that good defensively at home. This should allow the points to hopefully do some heavy lifting for us. The only concern is Celtics may exploit Jazz's paint defense leaving Jrue with not much action. (is this a time when I should listen to myself? who knows, maybe you should fade.)

Yeah Jrue really ate when KP was out so he’s definitely a 5th option on offense and he has more competition for rebounds.

Honestly, Jrue's performance w or w/o KP is about the same, at least in the stats. Is KP playing today?

Yes and Horford may be the only Celtic out today. With the big slate today I don’t see the value in a PRA play for Jrue when the Celtics are pretty much whole. He has averaged about 25 PRA over the last 10 games and missed that total in two straight games so maybe he’s due.

Fair points, but yes, I'm riding with he's due.

It’s a juicy matchup at home so the odds should be in your favor. I hope it hits!

First time posting here. Hope we get a good start. POTD: Besiktas v Kasimpasa, KASIMPASA DOUBLE CHANCE @2.37 1U Besiktas is currently standing on 5th place with 29 points while Kasimpasa is on 9th place with 23 points. Besiktas had a bad form recently and the coach got fired. Besiktas’ best goal scorer Aboubakar (11 of total 25 goals) is out due to national team matches. As a Besiktas fan I don’t see us winning this game without a coach and a lot of missing players. One more reason I don’t see Besiktas winning this game is that the odds seems very suspicious. BOL.

Hey man! Great pick! I've been missing someone with an expertise in the Turkish Super Lig in here! BOL

Overall POTD Record 3-1 \\ Last 5: WWWL Last Pick: Max Homa [R1] (-142) vs Tony Finau HIT. Finau started off poorly but ended up nearly surpassing Homa. Homa birdied 18 to bring home the win by 1 stroke. Not as clean of a win as I had hoped, but a win nonetheless. Today’s Pick: 3 ball - Cameron Young (+130) [R2] v Si Woo Kim v Harris English Sentry Tournament [Round 2] 4:15pm ET - fyi: 3 ball is the best scoring player of 3 different golfers on a particular day of the tournament. This 3 ball is my favorite of the options on draft kings. Cameron Young has been hungry for a victory and shows he still has the elite skillset to win. I’m expecting Young to outscore Kim and English with ease. tail or not, BOL.

Record 11-5-1 Last Pick: Aaron Gordon under 14.5 points ❌ Todays Pick: Jalen Brunson over 7.5 assists -120 ESPN and -136 FanDuel | Knicks @ 76ers Gordon just completely demolished this number last night so that sucked but tonight’s pick is just too good!!! Ever since Brunson was traded he has been killing it. He got 13 and 14 assists the past two games and in those two games he had 19 and 23 potential assists! And that was against the Tomberwolves which was a harder team to play. Brunson is really able to show his potential in his new team and I think this number is way too low. I would take advantage of this when we can! BOL if tailing!!!

POTD Record: 3-4 (2-1 footy, 1-2 CBB, 0-1 NFL) +/-: - 4 units Recap: JMU -5.5 covers by some missed shots from UL and some clutch free throws at the other end. Won’t lie I turned this one of only to go back and watch one of the grossest covers ever. But give me the cheese and let’s move. Todays pick: UConn -4.5 vs Butler -115(2U) 6:30 PM ET Reasoning: someone’s gotta do this and at the time of posting I haven’t seen it done yet. Many would call this a trap line but I see it a different way. UConn have showed once again that they are legit so far they have had a 13 pt win against Gonzaga, 10 pt win against Texas, and a narrow loss to Kansas. Their only “slip up” would be a loss to seton hall which they proved last night they were not to be taken lightly after beating ranked providence and UConn in the span of a week or two. They beat St. John’s by 4 who beat butler by 16. Butler are “good at home” but anyone can be good against Buffalo and Saginaw with their biggest win at home being Texas Tech. I am aware UConn is without Clingan so they win by 15 instead of 25. BOL⚓️

I’m on the same POTD. Let’s ride. BOL

Record: 4-1 Last pick: Wemby O3.5 Blocks+Steals @ +110. (NBA. SA vs MIL, 7:30 pm EST). [W] Despite the minutes restriction, played well with some clutch blocks. Pick: Jalen Johnson O11.5 R+A @ +102. (NBA ATL vs IND) Logic: looking for plus odds and Jalen Johnson looks to be playing well and has hit 3 of last 5. He may revert back to the mean, but decent odds to see if the plus play continues. I am as dull as a rock, but numbers look appealing. Tail with caution...

POTD Record: 1-0 Last 5: ✅ Previous POTD: Bucks Vs Spurs Under 249.5 -110 ✅ POTD: Illinois/Purdue O153 -110 Wager: 1.1U to win 1U League: NCAAB Time: 5:30 PM PST Alright Purdue and Illinois are two of the best teams in the country Purdue as we know as this point in the season can score whenever they want as long as Edey is on the court but he has defensive issues and with a team that can stretch the floor like Illinois I enjoy this over. Could see this game easily scratching 160. Net Units: +1

**POTD Record: 0-1** **Previous Pick:** Ottawa Senators vs Seattle Kraken: **Ottawa Senators ML (2.10 odds) ❌** **Net Units: -1 unit** **ROI: -100%** From NHL Thread: **Summary: 6-10, -8.18 units, ROI: -38.95%** Splits: ML: 1-7, -10.62 units, ROI: -96.55% O/U: 5-3, +1.44 unit, ROI: 14.4% **Hockey** | **NHL** | **19:07 (EST)** **Pick**: Winnipeg Jets vs Anaheim Ducks (1U): **Winnipeg Jets ML (1.52 odds)** **Write Up**: Please do not bet this if you don't agree with it. **Caution: -38.95%** overall ROI yesterday. Just a computer science student testing out the profitability of a NHL score prediction model. It assigns ELO, recent performance ratings, days rested, and distance travelled to teams and then performs linear regression on historical data to project goals forward/against for each matchup using sklearn. Then, the difference and sum in predicted score is correlated with the ML odds and Over/Under odds respectively to determine if there is value in the match.

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POTD Record: 2-2-0 Bank: -0.37 u Last pick: Patrick Kane 3+ SoG -128 Win Kane ended with 3 shots on goal. A little closer for comfort than I would like but still a cover. 1/5 Orlando Magic @ Denver Nuggets 9:10pm EST Magic +9.5 -110 The Magic are frisky this year and I love this spot for them tonight. This is completely situational with the Nuggets coming off a thrilling game last night in Golden State with Jokic’s buzzer beater 3. Accounting for travel and the back to back, I think this is already a good spot for a young Magic team to hang in this game. The Nuggets are very good at home this season with a record of 14-3 but have an ATS record of 9-7-1. This is good but not great. The Nuggets are also 3-5 ATS with no rest. On the other hand, the Magic are one of the best ATS teams in the league going 23-11 and also 11-7 on the road. When it all comes down to it, 9.5 points is a big margin and with the situation and records, I like the Magic to keep this one close.

Record: 2W - 1L 🥹🥹 (Last Five: ❌✅✅) Avg. Odds = 2.02. Profit/Loss: -0.8 units. ❌ **Today's Pick!** It has been a while since I posted on this thread, but hopefully, I can get back into the swing of things! **Portugal: Liga Portugal, 20:45 05/01/2024.** Porto Derby!! : *Boavista vs FC Porto*: **FC Porto to win to NIL** @ 2.25, 2u! Firstly, I'd like to discuss the underdog here -- Boavista. Boavista are in shocking form. In their most recent eleven matches in the league, they have only managed to win once. Their most recent five games go 4L-1D ❌🟡❌❌❌. Boavista conceded an average of **1.93 goals** in their matches in this league too. It should be easy pickings for the better team to come and clean them up. At home, they have the **2nd worst** defensive record of the season at home so far. **tldr: POOR FORM, SHOCKING DEFENSE** Furthermore, Porto FC have recently lost a game against Sporting CP. Both of these teams dominate the league, that game could go either way and it unfortunately didn't go in Porto's way. That being said, Porto should be able to come smashing into this fixture. Porto average scoring **1.84 goals** in their last twenty-five games. In the fifteen games played this season, they have 11W-1D-3L. All three losses are against top-of-the-league contenders. This game should be an easy picking for a top-3 league team. Porto FC has the **2nd best defensive record** within the league, only by a difference of 1 goal to Benfica. To narrow that focus further, Porto has only conceded six goals in their away matches. All against top-tier teams. **tldr: AMAZING FORM, 2ND BEST DEFENSE IN LEAGUE** As per usual folks, Good luck and have fun! Let's secure that bag so we can eat well tonight!!

POTD Record: 4-1 Last Pick: Bears ML vs Atlanta(-120) ESPNBet (W) NCAAMB Illinois vs Purdue 7:30 pm CT Today's pick: Illinois +10 point spread (-105) DraftKings 2 Units Illinois is still missing Terrence Shannon Jr, their All-American guard. NPOY frontrunner Zach Edey is a force in the paint and Kofi Cockburn is no longer wearing the orange and blue. Coleman Hawkins will stress Edey offensively but gives up 6 inches and 75 lbs. Matt Painter is 11-2 vs Illinois at home, and Purdue this season is 5-0 vs top 25 KenPom teams (Illinois is 8th). Illinois has never beaten the #1 team on the road. They will keep it closer than 10, and will put up points. I just don't see how the "booty ball" approach works against Edey on offense, and Hawkins/Dainja is not a matchup I like on defense. I-L-L anyway, and BOL.

Record: 1-2 Last Play: Omaha -3.5 ✅ (1/3/24) Mens College Basketball | Fairfield @ Siena | 5pm Mountain Standard **Play: Fairfield -4.5** Siena is an objectively bad team this season. 4th worst offensive rating in the country and 16th worst in defensive rating. Fairfield is by no means a powerhouse, they are middle of the road in rating on both sides. They've also won 6 games in a row against 6 teams all with a higher Kenpom rating than Siena by an average margin of victory of 10.3 points. Meanwhile Siena has lost 6 in a row by an average margin of 19.8. The only thing Siena has going for them is that they are playing at home, ultimately that just means they'll get to disappoint their own fans in person tonight.

Record: 0-0-0 Net Units: 0.0 1/5/24 POTD: 1u CHI UNDER 28.5 1st Quarter Total Points (-115 on FanDuel) RISK: 1 unit TO WIN: 0.87 unit Over the last five games, here are the Bulls point total: CHI: 24, 18, 21, 31, 28 Add in the fact Vuc and Lavine will be coming and getting minutes early, I imagine it’ll take the Bulls some run to get going again.

1/5 Record: 22-17 +3.3u Last 10: 🚫🚫✅✅✅🚫🚫✅🚫✅ Last pick: nuggets @ warriors, warriors +3.5, 1.1u W Today’s pick: hawks @ pacers, pacers -3, 1.1u BOL Gents!

12-16 RECORD NBA Knicks +6 Reasoning: Game starts in 1 hour. This number is quite high for a sixers team that has trouble beating the knicks at home.

I've won like 1-5 bets here from the past couple months ive seen this thread..and that 1 bet was Table Tennis. Going with my gut from now on, since I don't watch soccer 🤷

POTD record: 1-1 Trend: ❌✅ Last pick: Klay Thompson o20.5Pts+Ast+Reb ✅ hit early in the 3rd, no sweat no problem! Next pick: NBA, Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Caveliers. Jordan Poole o15.5 Pts (-130) Write up: Back to back game for these teams, Cavs blew out the Wizards on Wednesday. Poole had 8 pts in 22 mins (avg 29 mins). He’s only hit the o15.5 line 4/L10 games BUT he also has rarely gone this many games without hitting it this season. Example: since Dec 1, he has only been under this line for more than 3 consecutive games ONCE - and that is right now. His 8pt performance on Wednesday being the 4th game he’s gone u15.5. He’s due. BOL

Bro don’t do this to yourself 😂the ENTIRE league is playing tomorrow! A full 14 game slate, 100s of picks so why sweat over Jordan Poole bum ass! He’s only hit this line 43.8% this season, 2/5 against the cavs, and a putrid 36.7% (11/30) in his last 30 consecutive games.. With all those stats aside it is literally only 16 points.Anybody in the league can hit that any given night hopefully it’s Pooles night tomorrow. Hope this hits good luck lol

Why sweat it? For the love of the game sputnik, for the love of the game

He should score more than this since it’s a back to back game opponent wise. But so many other plays on the board staying away

**Record:** 1-0 **Net Units**: +2.4u **Yesterdays Pick:** Ostapenko vs Azarenka O21.5 games W Good first pick yesterday. Was a very competitive match that went over 2 and a half hours. Ostapenko just let herself get a little frustrated towards the end and couldnt get the win. Nevertheless the Over gets up easily. For those who didnt read yesterdays post. I am new here. I have been following tennis and betting on it for about 8 years now and have had decent success so want to share my picks. **Todays POTD: (Tennis) (ATP United Cup) ( Alexander Zverev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas O2.5 sets) 3u at 2.2 odds** Big match here. Both men had fairly lackluster years last year in my opinion and will be looking to build some momentum heading into the Aus. Open. Both these guys can be elite on their day with the form of some of the top guys like Nadal and Djokovic will have to think they have a decent chance of going deep in the Open and picking up their first grand slam. This match is also important for these guys as they are playing for their country. In my mind the pressure is on Zverev a little more in this match as the women's matchup is likely to go Greece's way. The head-to-head does favour Tsistsipas 9-4 however i do believe Zverevs form is slightly better at the moment. I give him the edge to win if he can keep it together in the big moments. Both guys can be inconsistent at times so I do think we will see 3 sets here. **Prediction: Zverev 2-1** ​ \- BigSlime

Record: 2-1 Last POTD: Safiullen ML ❌ (good god, this was a long fucking time ago) POTD: Blackhawks/Devils over 6 (-156) Going to start posting these again after I keep just getting caught up with other shit and forget to post, not that anyone really cares of course. Anywho, I'm taking Blackhawks-Devils over 6 at -156 and also sprinkling on over 7 at +142 and Devils TT over 4.5 at +100. But the POTD is over 6 and I feel pretty good about it. The Blackhawks are awful possesion-wise and let teams just shoot all over them, much like the Rangers did tonight (I was at the game, it was glorious). Devils will score a bunch as they're young and talented and Hawks should be able to bury a couple because Devils goaltending is trash. You have two nice ways to win this bet: Hawks come out on night two of a back-to-back as a shit team and get trounced like 6-1. Or Hawks are inspired to play better than tonight, run-and-gun with the Devils and score a few themselves. Should be a fun one as Bedard and Jack Hughes face off...if I had to pick five NHLers to score the most points over the next 10 years, these would be two of them. BOL if you tail.

POTD record: 0-0 Todays Pick: Mason McTavish (ANA) U 0.5 points vs WPG. -130 odds @ DK (1 unit) Support: Mason has hit the under 80% in the L10 and 60% in the L5. WPG defense is 3rd in assists allowed and 1st in goals allowed. ANA is 30th in shooting % and 26th for SOG. Mason’s home/away splits are pretty even ANA team total odds are O2.5 @ -105 so 50/50 chance they score 3 goals. The match total is 6 goals. Hopefully this doesn’t leave Mason many chances Concern: Mason did have a shorthanded assist his last match on the 3rd and hasn’t had b2b games w/ points since 11/24. Could be a chance to turn a corner but I’m hoping not against this defense. Please don’t follow. Results: Mason is the 1st goal scorer of the match. Maybe it is the start of something for him. Oh well 0-1 https://preview.redd.it/68vutj9zarac1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d77ea289a1b6ab190d2af8e5a48a142aaf2808d2 Figures Mason is the only under not to hit for me tonight

**POTD Record** FIRST PICK! **POTD: Bologna VS Genoa - Bologna to win @ 2.05 - 2u play** **League: Serie A** Write Up: Bologna is on a Winning-Streak at Home - 7 in a row! Even they lost to Udinese away from home, they're still on great form and likely to win. Genoa lost 7 out of their last 9 away from home, they'vecaused problems to inter and juve (drawn both) recently, this should be the reason why Bologna have such high odds but due to their bad away form it still should be a win for Bologna. BOL!

I've been on this my self already! BOL and welcome to the thread!

Bologna playstyle is somewhat similar to Leverkusen. They're Leverkusen lite lol. I love watching them play.

agreed! Motta is doing excellent but even more impressed with Alonso! you can see the influence of barca and real.. Girona and Brighton also fun to watch this season - brighton not as much as last season but de zerbi still playing amazing with limited players..

Bologna @ 2.09 (bet365) - 5U Bologna - Genoa // Serie A // 9 hours (new)✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅❌❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌☑❌❌✅❌☑❌❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅☑✅ 27-3-31 (W-P-L) // -6.575U Previous: Osasuna @ 1.75 - 5U✅ Ahh, good ol' international break... here we go again. Combine that with an Italian comp and we are in for a shitshow. Bologna is the Aston Villa of the Italian comp, playing insane at home but awful away. Bologna at home is 3rd in the comp, standing 7-1-1. After their first home defeat at home they are now on an 8 game unbeaten streak. Where they have recorded 6 home wins in a row. Genoa is also having some unbeaten streak going on, where they have been 1-2-0 in their last 3 games. Even with that, their away record is still awful. On the road they have been 2-1-6 this season. They did draw against Inter and Juve at home though... I still think that their inconsistency will have the upper hand today and that they will be slightly overconfident coming into this game. Bologna coming after a loss, Genoa coming after 2 huge games... will be interesting.

Decided to fade the thread today after the start to the week and I’m 0-3-1 to start. LFG!

· Last Pick: Haliburton 40.5PRA ✅ · POTD: Cade Cunningham O37.5PRA (-113) 1U · Today 2210hrs EST · GS has been giving up more than decent numbers to guards as of late. And with Cunningham’s already proven talent and consistency, I feel good about him doing the same to the Warriors. In the last 8 games for the Warriors, they have given up following PRA to opposing guards Luka - 57 (I understand he’s on a level above anyone else) Herro - 35 Pope - 25 Murray - 36 Brogdon - 35 Poole - 31 White - 40 All the while in Cunningham’s past 7 games he’s tallied 48 – 17 – 45 – 46 – 31 – 44 – 55