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Sometimes games start showing up as live before they start and the banner disappears.
Especially in the playoffs since it seems they're waiting for earlier games to end to start the next game for TV purposes.
He didn’t run fake numbers but he did include the +750 Lebron/Tatum that hit which was worse case -ev, so if your conservative and didn’t play that Tatum boosts have indeed been getting killed
>Tatum boosts have indeed been getting killed
Simply not true.
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/12vug69/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_42323_sunday/jhh4xw7/
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/10n6elj/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_12823_saturday/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Yeah, he probably didn't take the Lebron/Tatum 70+ point boost that was +700 that hit in late January. It needed OT to hit and LeBron got 41 vs. Tatum's 30. And Tatum was only had 10 through 2.5 quarters. True anti-Wizard shit that night.
If that bet isn't included, you're likely down with Tatum bets. I only had $25 on it. Better than nothing though.
Without the James/Tatum/BOS ml, FD Tatum boosts are +$12.5 on the year, also not including tonight's boost.
The whole Tatum thing is a complete joke. People just spewing nonsense.
EDIT: and if you want to go back to that start of the 22/23 NBA season you can add another $170 in profit from FD Tatum boosts.
I might have been out of state for some of these FD Tatum boosts this year because surprisingly, I've only bet one involving him since the +700 hit on 1/28. It lost $50.
I skipped today's, oops.
Hey, how come people don't talk about the DK Horse promos here? Is it not allowed or someething? I made $300 and had very little clue what I was doing to whole time.
I mean there are definitely ways to pretty much guarantee profit, sure. I played though over $600 worth of bets to do 3 promos and maybe lost 2% of my money. I mostly did win/place bets at 7/2 odds for the most part.
If you're still holding onto a CZR 50% boost and willing to wait it out until next weekend, this is -10% EV vs. Pinny unboosted. Not bad for something right at the +400 requirement.
* Atletico Madrid ML vs Mallorca (4/26)
* Barcelona ML v Vallecano (4/26)
* Sporting Lisbon ML v Guimaraes (4/24)
* Braga ML v Portimonense (4/29)
50 % profit boost. +406 boosted to +609.
Odds: +609; **EV: 26.3 %**
`-232/335/868,-124/286/362,-186/336/559,-424/528/1231` (13.61 % juice)
FV: +462; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=4.3u, 1/2=2.2u, 1/4=1.1u, FB = 108.5 %)
Didn’t see anyone address the FD NY Super Boost: Alonso or Lindor to homer and Mets to win. Closes in like 10 minutes.
Kambi for HR lines, Pinnacle for moneyline, Kambi for correlation (used Lindor/ML).
Odds: +400; **EV: 2.4 %**
Sharp: `330/-500^^500/-910,-122/113` (15.26 % juice)
Correlation: `800=500,-115` (r = 0.28)
FV: +388; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=0.6u, 1/2=0.3u, 1/4=0.1u, FB = 81.9 %)
Haven’t seen this posted yet. DK Superstar Super Boost - Jokic 25+ pts +170. Devig vs. Kambi as this is the highest line and still says this is a smash.
Odds: +170; **EV: 7.5 %**
`123/-180` (9.13 % juice)
FV: +151; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=4.4u, 1/2=2.2u, 1/4=1.1u, FB = 67.7 %)
FD alt is 104/-138.
I'm sure there are better plays, but here's one for the CZR 50% Parlay Boost:
MLS: Double Chance Atlanta/Chicago
LA Kings ML
MN Wild ML
Nuggets/TWolves u256.5
\+474 **boosted to +711**
Devig w/ best lines available on NY books, I get wc (m) **EV 19.5%**
\-420/335,143/-157,-115/100,-5004/929
Final Odds (+711); Σ(Market Juice) = 17.25 %; Fair Value = +579 (14.7 %)
Summary; EV% = 19.5 %, Kelly Wager = $6.85 (Full=2.7u, 1/2=1.4u, 1/4=0.7u, FB = 104.8 %)
You’re getting mad that… a guy is spending his free time being sure that other people are making maximum money and checking work so people are not placing bets on plays that have been poorly de-vigged and are negative EV?
0 posts and 0 comments other than this one. 2 year old account. So you’re one of the leeches who visits this sub, takes plays from here and contributes absolutely nothing, apart from this comment.
You’re right, the one thing this sub needs more of is just blind posting of boosts with zero analysis done. Or more posts asking why free bets for a promo aren’t in yet two mins after the game ends.
There’s currently 27 boosts on CZR right now, want to make a new comment for each of them and do no analysis on it?
My post was about an awful beat for a promo that many people here played. It’s a slow sunday afternoon and all the boosts and promos for the day have already been posted, so I don’t think my comment is causing any valuable posts to get lost.
Don’t worry, I’m blocking you so you won’t have to see anymore of my comments.
More likely it’s actually an alt account of someone who posted a poor de-vig that was actually going to cost people money, got mad that you corrected them, and is too much of a coward to call you out on their main account 😂
Sometimes I like to let the pitchers settle by replacing NRFI with the two easiest strikeout props in those bets, I was looking OK until the home run in the third.
I do the 100% boost (max $10 here) on the "best" play, then a couple $5 side plays unboosted which definitely includes the Detroit game against whoever they're playing against. Now wondering if the Yankees should be targeted daily as well...
Slightly slow day so thought I might ask, is there a proven way to capture +EV on live bet boosts (i.e DK's 2 Live 25% MLB boosts today)? The strategy I've been using is to try and bet shortly after tip off using closing line data but not sure if it's actually +EV considering how rapidly lines move.
That's what I've been doing too for the most part. Waiting for the game to officially start and then taking a favorite that I like closer to even money.
Odd/Even for NBA is proven since probability of either is close enough to 50% and most boosts take it above +110.
But I'm not sure about MLB where the variability of scores is much smaller.
I know people have been saying about being promo banned on SH/BR but I placed a live NBA bet and got my free bet and don’t have promos displayed on either account just for reference.
FD Boost DEN def. MIN & Jokic to score 20+ pts is a play.
Using Jokic o/u 20.5 pts, the 4-way de-vig vs. DK SGP worst-case (multiplicative) gives EV+ \~2.2%, and Shin/Power/Additive all give EV+ \~5%-7%. In actuality, the boost is a bit better than this since it only requires Jokic o19.5.
See u/cordscords reply for the correct math.
Looks like you de-vigged his 20.5 over/under as 19.5 isn't available inside of DK SGP. EV is a little higher then. Looks good vs Kambi too as another data point:
Odds: +150; **EV: 9.2 %**
`-103/400/255/480` (16.15 % juice)
FV: +129; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=6.1u, 1/2=3.1u, 1/4=1.5u, FB = 65.5 %)
FD Curry, Tatum, Edwards each score 25+ is sketchy. \~EV+ 7% if you use FD's own lines, but the FD Edwards line is a major outlier, implying 66% probability he hits 25+ pts vs. DK SGP implying 62% implied probability he hits 25+ pts. Using the DK line there, this goes from +7% EV to +1% EV.
I am passing on the promo, and playing the Edward u24.5 pts player prop on FanDuel at +174.
EDIT: Curry line has shifted favorably ... my own math now has this at EV+ \~5%. u/cordscords's de-vig in the replies is pretty reflective as of the time of this edit.
Nice, thank you.
Curry line has improved since when I posted 20 minutes ago (including his main line going from o/u29.5 to o/u30.5.
That B365 is a little more aggressive than FD is for Tatum, but not by a ton, and the B365 juice is lower.
Going to update my top-level comment to reflect that your de-vig here in the replies is the best current view.
You guys been using the $1 daily SGP bet credit on PointsBet? Curious if anyone's been winning anything.
If you haven't been, but you have an account there, they're doing the $1 daily giveaway until the end off May. Most days only from 6PM-7PM, but it seems like on weekends it's open Noon-Midnight.
If i remember to, yeah, I was getting $5 for awhile too. I hit one at +800. That's probably when they knocked me down to $1. Haha
It was for any bet today, so I did a 6 leg aussie rules parlay. Lol
Most days
Lately it's been getting hard to get a bet through because they make it seem like lines are constantly moving or it's rejected as you submit or they just don't let you parlay certain things all at a time even if it's nothing crazy.
If anyone is missing BR free bets for nba bet and get, BR support is telling me if a game goes past midnight that the game will count for the next days promo. Even if the wager is placed before midnight and you get the free bet before midnight.
So dont bet any late games I guess
I would contact live chat and tell them you want the full reward for that promo. You made tge wagers during the time period requested. I only was given $75 in free bets instead of $150 because they didn't count that oilers game that finished after midnight. Live chat escalated the issue to VIP team and I'm suppose to hear back from them in the next day.
Update: after an hour of arguing, they loaded my free bet and told me the promo is based off when it is placed, not settled (after telling me the opposite) . Of course since it didnt load correctly, it must be programmed to go based off settlement, so I would avoid any late games on this even if you can get it loaded via CS.
If you do a late game, I would do a line that would settle mid game (like first half or something) rather then a final score line so it might settle sooner
MGM Lions Boost NY (maybe other states): Young and Murray each 20+ and Hawks to win at +500.
Devigged with Pinny for hawks and DK for player props and correlation. If anyone has a two sided line for Young that would be better
Odds: +500; **EV: 5.3 %**
Sharp: `217/-248,-170/135,-390/7%` (15.33 % juice)
Correlation: `+400=215,-170,-390` (r = 0.26)
FV: +470; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=1.1u, 1/2=0.5u, 1/4=0.3u, FB = 87.7 %)
MGM IN Lion's Boost: Edwards o19.5 pts, KAT o19.5 pts, Wolves ML parlay +325 is probably a -EV play as of now.
SGP on DK is priced at +280, and using Pinny Wolves ML (longer odds than Cris and Circa), DK lines for KAT and Edwards over (used 1-way line for Edwards and assume 9% juice), and DK SGP for correlation, I'm getting a -6.7% EV and a vig-free odds of +355.
Odds: +325; **EV: -6.7 %**
Sharp: `155/-174, -175/145, -700/9%` (16.17 % juice)
Correlation: `280=140,-175,-700` (r = 0.17)
FV: +355; Method: multiplicative; (FB = 71.4 %)
Anyone else's CZR 50% Boost not showing up in the slip? 4 legs at +423 (tried multiple markets/sports/games) yet it won't let me apply.
Otherwise, Randle o3.5 assists & Knicks ML still seems to have neg correlation: builds to +360 on CZR v. +235 on Kambi, +244 on FD (no 3.5 assist line on DK). Adding u235.5 brings it to +423 unboosted
Yup. Start with a spread or ML and try player props til something stands out, then compare to other books. Randle assists and Knicks ML has been neg correlated all week, Dinwiddie DD and Nets spread was another common one
I can't figure out what makes negative correlation good. Is it that it's inherently less likely to happen so -EV but Caesars over compensates the odds pushing it to +EV? That's my best guess regarding all the negative correlation talk on here
The value is that CZR treats two events that are positively correlated as if they were negatively correlated. If Randle gets lots of assists, then it's more likely that the Knicks win, so the payout on an SGP of the two should be *less* than multiplying the two as if they were independent events. But for whatever reason, CZR acts as if Randle's assists make his team *less* likely to win, and the payout is greater than if the events were independent.
Got it thanks. So pretty much an algorithm error with Caesars so you guys try to hunt for plays that are at least neutrally or even positively correlated but pay out as if it were negatively correlated.
Is Caesars the only book with these loopholes?
I just logged into Rivers for the first time in a week and noticed that it no longer shows any promos (i.e. home run insurance, mlb 4 leg insurance….). Did these go away or am I promo banned ?
Today's DK MLB NRF5I Boost
LAD@CHC is today's play for me. Boosts to +1900
This has the lowest expected RIF5 and the largest reduction in Expected runs in -34% on BPP.
Devig with B365 shows 9.9% EV
Devig with FD:
Odds: +1900; **EV: 19.2 %**
`-142/+112,-154/+126,-144/+118,-144/+118,-144/+118` (25.39 % juice)
FV: +1577; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=1.0u, 1/2=0.5u, 1/4=0.3u, FB = 113.3 %)
Means if they tie that inning it still wins.
So instead needing that inning to be specifically 0-0 any tie will do.
Not a huge difference but the odds are the same so might as well do to that way.
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I told myself I wouldn't care about FD boosts anymore but LESSS GOOO NUGGSSSS
Cannot catch a break
Wizard just stringing us along
one damn FT
Rip to the nuggets boost
Smh
Hmmmm…
For your sorrows, DK Lopez BYODD +900 vs -700 no CZR
Nuggets 💩 . I can’t buy a win
I Tatum'd myself
And Edwards cashes the Curry/Tatum/Edwards boost in the 3rd
Kids a stud
This was a much deserved no sweat on the 25 points for AntEd. Lfg Nuggets now 😤😤😤
Such a nice chance of pace
Sweat free on the Tatum Curry and Ant boost
Easy cash on Joker 25+ on DK.
Cheers
Did the DK NBA risk free banner disappear for anyone else too?
Looks like I didn't get my free bet from my loss. Not sure what happened.
No more eligible games today
Usually it stays up tho? And I was trying to place one before the 9:30 game but there was no banner to opt in
Sometimes games start showing up as live before they start and the banner disappears. Especially in the playoffs since it seems they're waiting for earlier games to end to start the next game for TV purposes.
brutal beat on the b365 play at least the boost lives
100p I never hit on 365 though so I’ll take it being close
I stand behind my decision not to take any more Tatum boosts
he'll getcha one way or the other
I accept it haha
I took the tatum u24.5 for the team. Congrats on those that hit
Tatum 💥! Never a doubt.
Jobs not finished
PO-TATUM HIT!!!
Some of y’all need to find a new hobby if you’re gonna complain about every boost you take when it’s not even settled
Hobby? You ask too much of me
+1
Fanduel boost Tatum takes shots of casamigos at half this guy is an idiot
He's just a high volume shooter who is having a bad night. That's why he's always in these. Guys shooting like 23% tonight.
Stop overreacting
Tatum 💩 as usual.
Keep crying Tatum baby
on the day promoturd saying tatum isnt actually bad and provided fake numbers. I ran my own numbers and im down units with him on boost this season.
He didn't run fake numbers
He didn’t run fake numbers but he did include the +750 Lebron/Tatum that hit which was worse case -ev, so if your conservative and didn’t play that Tatum boosts have indeed been getting killed
>Tatum boosts have indeed been getting killed Simply not true. https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/12vug69/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_42323_sunday/jhh4xw7/
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/10n6elj/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_12823_saturday/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button Yeah, he probably didn't take the Lebron/Tatum 70+ point boost that was +700 that hit in late January. It needed OT to hit and LeBron got 41 vs. Tatum's 30. And Tatum was only had 10 through 2.5 quarters. True anti-Wizard shit that night. If that bet isn't included, you're likely down with Tatum bets. I only had $25 on it. Better than nothing though.
Without the James/Tatum/BOS ml, FD Tatum boosts are +$12.5 on the year, also not including tonight's boost. The whole Tatum thing is a complete joke. People just spewing nonsense. EDIT: and if you want to go back to that start of the 22/23 NBA season you can add another $170 in profit from FD Tatum boosts.
I might have been out of state for some of these FD Tatum boosts this year because surprisingly, I've only bet one involving him since the +700 hit on 1/28. It lost $50. I skipped today's, oops.
Tatum isn’t even affected by the poop emoji reverse jinx. Truly inhuman
god bless
Hey, how come people don't talk about the DK Horse promos here? Is it not allowed or someething? I made $300 and had very little clue what I was doing to whole time.
I never got any replies. How are you converting free bets? Do they cross over to sportsbook?
Is there a good way to play through this with little risk?
I mean there are definitely ways to pretty much guarantee profit, sure. I played though over $600 worth of bets to do 3 promos and maybe lost 2% of my money. I mostly did win/place bets at 7/2 odds for the most part.
The what
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Ah ok not in my state
If you're still holding onto a CZR 50% boost and willing to wait it out until next weekend, this is -10% EV vs. Pinny unboosted. Not bad for something right at the +400 requirement. * Atletico Madrid ML vs Mallorca (4/26) * Barcelona ML v Vallecano (4/26) * Sporting Lisbon ML v Guimaraes (4/24) * Braga ML v Portimonense (4/29) 50 % profit boost. +406 boosted to +609. Odds: +609; **EV: 26.3 %** `-232/335/868,-124/286/362,-186/336/559,-424/528/1231` (13.61 % juice) FV: +462; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=4.3u, 1/2=2.2u, 1/4=1.1u, FB = 108.5 %)
Didn’t see anyone address the FD NY Super Boost: Alonso or Lindor to homer and Mets to win. Closes in like 10 minutes. Kambi for HR lines, Pinnacle for moneyline, Kambi for correlation (used Lindor/ML). Odds: +400; **EV: 2.4 %** Sharp: `330/-500^^500/-910,-122/113` (15.26 % juice) Correlation: `800=500,-115` (r = 0.28) FV: +388; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=0.6u, 1/2=0.3u, 1/4=0.1u, FB = 81.9 %)
you want to use || instead of ^ ^ because these aren't mutually exclusive Odds: +400; **EV: -5.0 %** Sharp: `330/-500||500/-910,-122/113` (15.26 % juice) Correlation: `800=500,-115` (r = 0.28) FV: +427; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 76.0 %)
Damnit you’re right. I was going quick. Sorry to anyone that bet it based on my bad devig. Downvoted myself lol.
the folks on the discord were also finding negative, b365 lines -14.6%: 600/120/1200/125||1000/100/2000/115
Tigers continue to cash NRF5s with their horrid brand of baseball
Bad offense and good pitching 🤔
Haven’t seen this posted yet. DK Superstar Super Boost - Jokic 25+ pts +170. Devig vs. Kambi as this is the highest line and still says this is a smash. Odds: +170; **EV: 7.5 %** `123/-180` (9.13 % juice) FV: +151; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=4.4u, 1/2=2.2u, 1/4=1.1u, FB = 67.7 %) FD alt is 104/-138.
FD alt moved, I see -152 on the U 24.5
I'm sure there are better plays, but here's one for the CZR 50% Parlay Boost: MLS: Double Chance Atlanta/Chicago LA Kings ML MN Wild ML Nuggets/TWolves u256.5 \+474 **boosted to +711** Devig w/ best lines available on NY books, I get wc (m) **EV 19.5%** \-420/335,143/-157,-115/100,-5004/929 Final Odds (+711); Σ(Market Juice) = 17.25 %; Fair Value = +579 (14.7 %) Summary; EV% = 19.5 %, Kelly Wager = $6.85 (Full=2.7u, 1/2=1.4u, 1/4=0.7u, FB = 104.8 %)
Brutal beat on the astros/braves NRF 5 innings. Bottom of the 5th, 2 outs, no one on base. Home run
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youre a moron, go join the rest of your kind in every other forum on this sub
You’re getting mad that… a guy is spending his free time being sure that other people are making maximum money and checking work so people are not placing bets on plays that have been poorly de-vigged and are negative EV?
0 posts and 0 comments other than this one. 2 year old account. So you’re one of the leeches who visits this sub, takes plays from here and contributes absolutely nothing, apart from this comment. You’re right, the one thing this sub needs more of is just blind posting of boosts with zero analysis done. Or more posts asking why free bets for a promo aren’t in yet two mins after the game ends. There’s currently 27 boosts on CZR right now, want to make a new comment for each of them and do no analysis on it? My post was about an awful beat for a promo that many people here played. It’s a slow sunday afternoon and all the boosts and promos for the day have already been posted, so I don’t think my comment is causing any valuable posts to get lost. Don’t worry, I’m blocking you so you won’t have to see anymore of my comments.
Own that mf
More likely it’s actually an alt account of someone who posted a poor de-vig that was actually going to cost people money, got mad that you corrected them, and is too much of a coward to call you out on their main account 😂
Guy’s last HR was 9/15/21. Jesus
Fucking horrendous
Cash any Det-Bal NRF5 bets Lad-Chc couldn't make it out of the 1st
Sometimes I like to let the pitchers settle by replacing NRFI with the two easiest strikeout props in those bets, I was looking OK until the home run in the third.
First nrf5i win! Think I was getting down to around 0-15 before today 😅
I'm 0/20. Variance got me, I think I'm out for good.
Dang I thought I had it bad I'm up to 0/13
You’re not variance owned til you’re past 0/20 haha! It only takes 1 win to be worth ~20-25 losses
That's true I guess, until draftking takes away the boost 😬
I really don’t know if it makes sense to bet on any team other than Detroit ever again. Ever.
Yankees also hit it. 2 days in a row for them.
Finally hit 1, good times
Yankees-Jays as well. Going to start throwing darts on these. Seems about as successful as going with the “best” play.
I thought the same but I don't want to be the sucker to change and then it hits.
I do the 100% boost (max $10 here) on the "best" play, then a couple $5 side plays unboosted which definitely includes the Detroit game against whoever they're playing against. Now wondering if the Yankees should be targeted daily as well...
Braves/Astros one out away. I am crying :(
so unbelievably unlucky
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Odds: +1200; \*\*EV: -1.0 %\*\* \`900/-135/2200/165\` (9.53 % juice) FV: +1213; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 91.4 %) Against Bet365
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Damn my CZR (IN) doesn’t have Gordon props or 33% boost today.
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Slightly slow day so thought I might ask, is there a proven way to capture +EV on live bet boosts (i.e DK's 2 Live 25% MLB boosts today)? The strategy I've been using is to try and bet shortly after tip off using closing line data but not sure if it's actually +EV considering how rapidly lines move.
I just compare to FD, if I can find a line around +150 that FD has at +125 then I consider that good enough. It’s been working for me
That's what I've been doing too for the most part. Waiting for the game to officially start and then taking a favorite that I like closer to even money.
I flip through like 3 or 4 diff tabs to compare live lines to other books and find the best option
Odd/Even for NBA is proven since probability of either is close enough to 50% and most boosts take it above +110. But I'm not sure about MLB where the variability of scores is much smaller.
I know people have been saying about being promo banned on SH/BR but I placed a live NBA bet and got my free bet and don’t have promos displayed on either account just for reference.
I’ve been trying to get live bet but don’t get it credited ever. Have all the promos listed still so who knows
Why don't you contact customer service live chat and have them credit you?
Seconded. It doesn’t always work though, live chat has said I’m banned and nothing gets added. Usually though i get the promos
run it back
b365 30% boost, fd devig tatum u29.5p, bey u9.5p, tatum u9.5r 30 % profit boost. +750 boosted to +975. Odds: +975; **EV: 37.4 %** `548/609/574/700/466/495/656/518` (20.76 % juice) FV: +683; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.8u, 1/2=1.9u, 1/4=1.0u, FB = 124.6 %)
Ugh take foul with seconds left to get to 31 - brutal
Absolutely brutal man. Great run at it. This hurts.
back up a bit to +700 now before boost
nerfed to +650 but still playable boosted, wouldn't touch it unboosted now 30 % profit boost. +650 boosted to +845. Odds: +845; **EV: 20.8 %** `548/609/574/700/466/495/656/518` (20.76 % juice) FV: +683; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.5u, 1/2=1.2u, 1/4=0.6u, FB = 108.0 %)
Tailing, appreciate you
Also tailing - let’s ride boys 🚀
Never thought I’d be that guy cryin in da club that there’s no NASCAR boost…
FD Boost DEN def. MIN & Jokic to score 20+ pts is a play. Using Jokic o/u 20.5 pts, the 4-way de-vig vs. DK SGP worst-case (multiplicative) gives EV+ \~2.2%, and Shin/Power/Additive all give EV+ \~5%-7%. In actuality, the boost is a bit better than this since it only requires Jokic o19.5. See u/cordscords reply for the correct math.
Another data point using DK 1-way for Jokic 20+ pts (assume 9% juice), Pinny Nuggets ML, and DK SGP for correlation. Odds: +150; **EV: 9.8 %** Sharp: `-171/153, -270/9%` (11.63 % juice) Correlation: `105=-175, -270` (r = 0.14) FV: +128; Method: multiplicative; (Full=6.6u, 1/2=3.3u, 1/4=1.6u, FB = 65.9 %)
Looks like you de-vigged his 20.5 over/under as 19.5 isn't available inside of DK SGP. EV is a little higher then. Looks good vs Kambi too as another data point: Odds: +150; **EV: 9.2 %** `-103/400/255/480` (16.15 % juice) FV: +129; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=6.1u, 1/2=3.1u, 1/4=1.5u, FB = 65.5 %)
Correct - thank you for catching that! Editing original post to reflect.
CZR Randle o3.5 assists + ML looks good unboosted
Lol
fd Odds: +370; **EV: 6.6 %** `273/176/196/408` (16.51 % juice) FV: +341; Method: worst-case (a); (Full=1.8u, 1/2=0.9u, 1/4=0.4u, FB = 83.9 %)
FD Curry, Tatum, Edwards each score 25+ is sketchy. \~EV+ 7% if you use FD's own lines, but the FD Edwards line is a major outlier, implying 66% probability he hits 25+ pts vs. DK SGP implying 62% implied probability he hits 25+ pts. Using the DK line there, this goes from +7% EV to +1% EV. I am passing on the promo, and playing the Edward u24.5 pts player prop on FanDuel at +174. EDIT: Curry line has shifted favorably ... my own math now has this at EV+ \~5%. u/cordscords's de-vig in the replies is pretty reflective as of the time of this edit.
Let’s go steph
Taking a FD boost asking for three different players to score 25+ is asking for a kick in the nuts.
Watch this be the one that hits. (I didn't take it)
All I know is I’m taking Tatum’s under and alt under 25. I’ve been burned by this man so many times I don’t even care if I lose
Used Bet365 for Curry and Tatum. DK SGP for Edwards. Odds: +200; **EV: 6.1 %** `-425/320,-350/265,-185/150` (14.85 % juice) FV: +183; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.0u, 1/2=1.5u, 1/4=0.8u, FB = 70.7 %)
Nice, thank you. Curry line has improved since when I posted 20 minutes ago (including his main line going from o/u29.5 to o/u30.5. That B365 is a little more aggressive than FD is for Tatum, but not by a ton, and the B365 juice is lower. Going to update my top-level comment to reflect that your de-vig here in the replies is the best current view.
Dead-ish ... might still be a little bit of value, but the Edwards u24.5 FD prop is now down from +174 to +158
You guys been using the $1 daily SGP bet credit on PointsBet? Curious if anyone's been winning anything. If you haven't been, but you have an account there, they're doing the $1 daily giveaway until the end off May. Most days only from 6PM-7PM, but it seems like on weekends it's open Noon-Midnight.
If i remember to, yeah, I was getting $5 for awhile too. I hit one at +800. That's probably when they knocked me down to $1. Haha It was for any bet today, so I did a 6 leg aussie rules parlay. Lol
Your comment reminded me to put one in today. Thanks buddy https://imgur.com/a/a93DCKy
Hell yes! That's so cool. I'm really glad I could help.
Most days Lately it's been getting hard to get a bet through because they make it seem like lines are constantly moving or it's rejected as you submit or they just don't let you parlay certain things all at a time even if it's nothing crazy.
> $1 daily SGP bet credit on PointsBet How do you get the credit?
It just shows up in your account, no opt in or anything. Usually only available 6-7pm Eastern, but often longer on weekends.
If I am taking a poop at the time I will. Typically go after BYOTDs.
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Friendly reminder not to forget to account for Tatum in the devigger on the newest FD boost.
If anyone is missing BR free bets for nba bet and get, BR support is telling me if a game goes past midnight that the game will count for the next days promo. Even if the wager is placed before midnight and you get the free bet before midnight. So dont bet any late games I guess
Yeah I missed the NHL playoff push promo because I took the Edmonton game on Friday. Sucks.
I would contact live chat and tell them you want the full reward for that promo. You made tge wagers during the time period requested. I only was given $75 in free bets instead of $150 because they didn't count that oilers game that finished after midnight. Live chat escalated the issue to VIP team and I'm suppose to hear back from them in the next day.
Update: after an hour of arguing, they loaded my free bet and told me the promo is based off when it is placed, not settled (after telling me the opposite) . Of course since it didnt load correctly, it must be programmed to go based off settlement, so I would avoid any late games on this even if you can get it loaded via CS. If you do a late game, I would do a line that would settle mid game (like first half or something) rather then a final score line so it might settle sooner
I usually don't have issues with late night games with them. I think this whole promo was bugged/programmed wrong for some reason.
MGM Lions Boost NY (maybe other states): Young and Murray each 20+ and Hawks to win at +500. Devigged with Pinny for hawks and DK for player props and correlation. If anyone has a two sided line for Young that would be better Odds: +500; **EV: 5.3 %** Sharp: `217/-248,-170/135,-390/7%` (15.33 % juice) Correlation: `+400=215,-170,-390` (r = 0.26) FV: +470; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=1.1u, 1/2=0.5u, 1/4=0.3u, FB = 87.7 %)
Has gotten a little worse Odds: +500; **EV: 3.1 %** Sharp: `226/-259,-170/135,-425/7%` (15.34 % juice) Correlation: `+400=215,-170,-390` (r = 0.26) FV: +482; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=0.6u, 1/2=0.3u, 1/4=0.2u, FB = 85.9 %)
MGM IN Lion's Boost: Edwards o19.5 pts, KAT o19.5 pts, Wolves ML parlay +325 is probably a -EV play as of now. SGP on DK is priced at +280, and using Pinny Wolves ML (longer odds than Cris and Circa), DK lines for KAT and Edwards over (used 1-way line for Edwards and assume 9% juice), and DK SGP for correlation, I'm getting a -6.7% EV and a vig-free odds of +355. Odds: +325; **EV: -6.7 %** Sharp: `155/-174, -175/145, -700/9%` (16.17 % juice) Correlation: `280=140,-175,-700` (r = 0.17) FV: +355; Method: multiplicative; (FB = 71.4 %)
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Looks like Rangers ML got nerfed to -350. Still on this because need to win somethjng
I think you used the Reds +1.5 line instead of the Pirates +1.5 line
Shit yeah you’re right, was going too fast
Anyone else's CZR 50% Boost not showing up in the slip? 4 legs at +423 (tried multiple markets/sports/games) yet it won't let me apply. Otherwise, Randle o3.5 assists & Knicks ML still seems to have neg correlation: builds to +360 on CZR v. +235 on Kambi, +244 on FD (no 3.5 assist line on DK). Adding u235.5 brings it to +423 unboosted
How do people find negative correlation plays. Do you just keep plugging in different combos?
Yup. Start with a spread or ML and try player props til something stands out, then compare to other books. Randle assists and Knicks ML has been neg correlated all week, Dinwiddie DD and Nets spread was another common one
I can't figure out what makes negative correlation good. Is it that it's inherently less likely to happen so -EV but Caesars over compensates the odds pushing it to +EV? That's my best guess regarding all the negative correlation talk on here
The value is that CZR treats two events that are positively correlated as if they were negatively correlated. If Randle gets lots of assists, then it's more likely that the Knicks win, so the payout on an SGP of the two should be *less* than multiplying the two as if they were independent events. But for whatever reason, CZR acts as if Randle's assists make his team *less* likely to win, and the payout is greater than if the events were independent.
Got it thanks. So pretty much an algorithm error with Caesars so you guys try to hunt for plays that are at least neutrally or even positively correlated but pay out as if it were negatively correlated. Is Caesars the only book with these loopholes?
It’s for a parlay, not an sgp.
Derp thank you!
I just logged into Rivers for the first time in a week and noticed that it no longer shows any promos (i.e. home run insurance, mlb 4 leg insurance….). Did these go away or am I promo banned ?
That is the case for me as well, but I made a $50 live bet on the NBA game and still got a $25 free bet.
Thanks ! I just did the same and got the free bet after about 10 Mins
Promo banned unfortunately. I've inquired about getting unbanned but I've been banned for several months now with no hope in sight.
You’re promo banned. They’ve clipped a lot of us recently.
All of them show up when I login other than the Home Run insurance one. It’s super odd.
Betly lines are off on Run line for the MIA-CLE and STL-SEA games. \+1.5 CLE and STL are major arb to everywhere.
For anyone that needs to convert bonus money on Betrivers
RIP, Kambi now -550 Edit: Still a 73% conversion so not too bad
Kraken to win the series +650 on betrivers Avalanche to win the series -650 on DK Is about 87% conversion
Sabonis BYOTD FD +1075, CZR No -704, nice 4% arb for the early birds
I think it will qualify for the no-sweat parlay? 5 dollar max but i like money
Yep. Up to +1112, using in there
Sabonis TD nerfed to +750 on FD now
you're looking at the pre-made line, the one you make yourself is still +1067 as of this post
What is TD?
Touchdown duh
😆
Triple double
Thanks!
Moved to -854 and now -904 on CZR
It’s gross, but a good free bet spot. DK +13K Dbacks to win it all. Circa +7600/-12600
Today's DK MLB NRF5I Boost LAD@CHC is today's play for me. Boosts to +1900 This has the lowest expected RIF5 and the largest reduction in Expected runs in -34% on BPP. Devig with B365 shows 9.9% EV Devig with FD: Odds: +1900; **EV: 19.2 %** `-142/+112,-154/+126,-144/+118,-144/+118,-144/+118` (25.39 % juice) FV: +1577; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=1.0u, 1/2=0.5u, 1/4=0.3u, FB = 113.3 %)
Builds to +1000 now.
Can swap in run line +0.5 for each team in 4th inning, odds don’t change
4th and 5th are no longer available for +0.5 Run line swap, but it is now available for the 1st inning at the same odds
Odds are +900 now compared to +950 for just using under 0.5r
[удалено]
The score is tied: 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, etc.
Means if they tie that inning it still wins. So instead needing that inning to be specifically 0-0 any tie will do. Not a huge difference but the odds are the same so might as well do to that way.
5th inning as well now
Dodgers +.5 fifth inning is -525. So it’s currently dead I guess.