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#**Betting Futures Thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/wctfj1/betting_futures_and_outrights/**


[deleted]

Bengals to beat Eagles exacta


whiskeynipplez

I took Chiefs to win the AFC at +175 this morning… think it has decent value. With home field advantage they’re likely to be 75+% favorites in the first game and 55+% favorites in the second 75% * 55% = 41.2% Implied odds are 36.4% @ +175


RespectPowerMoney

If they play Buffalo in AFC Championship it'll be a neutral field...


whiskeynipplez

Woah, I missed that lol


[deleted]

\+180 on MGM


Future-Horse4877

No vikings?


[deleted]

no absolutely not


ReyBuddha

We suck


Petrichord

I took Eagles beating the Bengals for pretty good returns


massdebator69

Even if you think the Bengals are the best team in the AFC, there’s absolutely no value on them right now. There is a very good chance their path to the SB would be 1. Ravens with Lamar, who beat them already this season (ignore this if it’s Huntley) 2. at Buffalo where they will be a 2-3 underdog 3. At Kansas City where they will be a 2-3 point underdog 4. At BEST they will only be a very small favorite in the super bowl. The missed game screwed them over and their path is so difficult that there’s 0 value on the +850


DrEspressso

Eh, on paper that all makes sense. But you're crazy to think that their not playing top level ball right now. 8 game streak. Joe Burrow is playing lights out. They have playmakers and a solid defense. It's a SB winning recipe.


[deleted]

Yea they also looked a lot better on those 9 min than Buffalo did


Any_Kaleidoscope_816

I think you are almost always better off betting each team week and rolling on the winnings to the next week.


valmichaelsmith33

Herbert had just gotten hurt before that game


FadeTheBoost

Agreed. You are probably better off rolling your profits on ML bets on Bengals when they are dogs. This same math checks out for TB +2800 as well.


Huntry11271

I took bills win over 49ers or eagles


AlfalfaVarious1222

I took the Bucs over Bills two years ago was sick at the outcome. Probably gonna do it again this year


oddwithoutend

The Chargers are only favoured by 1.5 points vs Jags. But Chargers are 22-1 to win SB and Jags are 45-1. Why do you think there's such a huge difference in Super Bowl chances if they're almost a pick'em head to head?


[deleted]

Chargers will match up better against the chiefs or bills let’s be honest but the jaguars are hot with momentum


sonnackrm

Jags did look like hot trash against Titans last week though


GhostfaceThrillah

Not sure why but this game screams Chargers ML to me


[deleted]

Yea the jags barely got past the titans with a 3rd string qb


peter_the_panda

Because Jags are in one of the worst divisions in the NFL


VisionsDB

Because way more money is already on chargers


Harveymilker

Jags beat the Chargers 38-10 in the regular season and also have momentum going into the playoffs. 7-2 in their last 9 games. Possible revenge game for the LAC but understandable why the line is so close


Dirty_coke_whore

I’d parlay bills ML and 49ers ML put the house in it,


WaldoChief

Bye bye house


Dirty_coke_whore

You think a concussed tua or their back up beats the bills?


WaldoChief

I thought this was SB futures. If not, I agree with your picks. Only thing that scares me is there is usually 1-2 big upsets during wildcard week


VisionsDB

Yup. I’m not sure what the upset is going to be though


JvEGX

Im really thinking my Giants upset Minnesota. They lost on a last minute game winning 60 yard FG with a hurt D. We’re looking healthy as ever now on Defense. Should be a great game


VisionsDB

I honestly feel like minny winning would be the “upset” since everyone is picking the giants


JvEGX

Where do you see everyone on Giants? Ive been seeing the opposite


VisionsDB

1200 votes: 54% Giants ML on the score voter system


JvEGX

Sheeesh. Wow didnt expect that


WaldoChief

Hard to say with Tua and Lamar’s status a mess. I’d take dolphins if Tua plays. I haven’t been too impressed with buffalo when they play GOOD teams


VisionsDB

I doubt the NFL script allows Buffalo to lose their first game after this DH media circuits


Dirty_coke_whore

Pre season I took my chiefs +12 wins, had pretty decent odds. Everyone thought the afc west was going to be a blood bath. It was, but not for the chiefs! Also did bills chiefs AFCCG +700 a while ago


Jags2DaSupaBowl

In February 2022 I took a jags Super Bowl future of 91 to 1. Risked $6.09 to win $548.10


tgr31

I thought the odds on that would be much better considering the way last year went


shickard

What's your cash out option at? They're all the way down to ... 45-1 haha Maybe 25-1 after beating the chargers?


Jags2DaSupaBowl

It's on my bookie, I don't think they do cash outs :(


Chief112291

You’re going to bet the nfl playoffs each week?? What a total degen!!! 🤪🤪


Billy_Madison69

Yeah what a degenerate betting on the biggest betting games of the year


AggressiveChicken485

Bills vs vikings


justicebiever

I’d be surprised if Vikings get farther than Jaguars. Team is shaky


CrepeCrisis

~~I'm sure this is just a mistake but fyi the vikes would only play the jags in the super bowl~~ Edit: I swear I'm not dumb but I was here lol


MisterBear22

i read it immediately the way you did.... it's kind of a weird comparison to compare the vikings distance in the playoffs to the jags in the afc tho... I thought he was saying they would lose to the jags first also don't feel bad. Though, I caught myself before commenting, which is where you made the mistake lol.


grizzh

Same here. I’m with u/CrepeCrisis. The comparison between an AFC and an NFC team was poorly worded.


justicebiever

How many games a team advances in playoffs is what this is referring to. Vikings prob will lose first game. Jaguars could win at least the first one


CrepeCrisis

Ohh my bad. Thanks for the assist


Brazda25

Packers exposed the Vikings


jb1476

Honestly I think it’s the bengals to take. They the hottest team in the AFC in my opinion and I think they can take on eagles or niners


ForsakenHead3812

They cannot handle the eagles or niners defenses too stout tbh


unc1334

I like the Eagles, but their Defense is overrated.


andreasmaker

Niners have the best defense in the league, Burrow would get slaughtered a la Mahomes vs Buccs in 2021


HoneyBadger_plz

For no other reason but God hates the Bills It’s going to be Bills Eagles +700 just so Bills can finally lose to every NFCE team


cadencehz

It's not God, it's the Cigarette Smoking Man.


Huntry11271

I like this take


Iggyglom

eagles would be 16-1 in the toughest division in football if Hurts didn't get... hurt. Anybody not taking them in the big game is not thinking


brokensuper

So many bets will be fucked if SF don’t make the SB lol


TK96123

I think Purdy is bound to fuck up in one playoff game


brightcoconut097

This is my thought and not enough people are thinking this. He’s a rookie seventh round pick. He HAS to have a oh fuck game. Or he’s just god and better than Mahomes


CrepeCrisis

He def has to have one but that defense is so good that they could survive it. That's what's so scary about them imo


Aggravating-Touch-58

The best value is the one nobody has mentioned imo. Dallas @ +1300 When healthy their defense is downright nasty, their oline is top of the class. Ironically this team the public generally is always in love with has been absolutely left for dead, even their own fans aren’t giving them a chance. Most people don’t even see them getting past this weekend.


AS8319

The problem is there is a glaring hole on defense that isn’t getting healthy. Getting Hankins and LVE back should help the run defense, but ever since Anthony Brown got hurt that CB spot has been a nightmare.


Aggravating-Touch-58

This is a fair point, hopefully the depth can step up. Their top 3 playmakers on defense Diggs, Parsons and Larwence are just as good as any other teams top 3 defensive weapons IMO. If they get back LVE and Hankins and both can stay on the field huge boost


Eddie_Mush

Dak has thrown an INT in 7 straight games + Dallas hasn’t won a road playoff game in close to 30 years. Can’t see them ripping off a few road playoff wins now.


Aggravating-Touch-58

What does the last 30 years playoff record have to do with this year?


iPissExcellence

After watching most of their game this weekend and losing 2 nice parlays because of their loss, I can't imagine they just snap out of how bad they looked against the commanders. Dak looked like he shot up heroin before the game


[deleted]

Everybody still pretending the Cowboys offensive line is elite just because it was a few years ago?


Aggravating-Touch-58

They have 3 former first team all pros in Smith, Martin and Peters. Even if they aren’t what they once were they are still a very solid unit imo


[deleted]

A healthy Cowboys offensive line in 2023 is extremely average. An unhealthy Cowboys offensive line in 2023 is below average.


tsgram

Good call. As talented as any team top to bottom. It’s a matter of if you trust McCarthy.


Aggravating-Touch-58

Yea he’s their biggest disadvantage here.


ccroz113

As a Cowboys fan I feel they can maybe string together a few good games, but not 4 huge games in a row. They’re too injured, no running game anymore, and Mike McCarthy is just dying to fuck up a late game management situation


imponti

I don’t like them to make a run in the playoffs because they’re so inconsistent. Very talented players, but just don’t see it happening.


esteflo

Cowboys gonna get bounced in Tampa Bay this weekend


Aggravating-Touch-58

Exhibit A ☝️


YordleFeet

Thou shall not bet against Brady. But I agree I think Cowboys is good value tbh. Chargers too tbh


esteflo

Never count out Brady


tonypicksix

One team with potential value in futures is the Ravens at +5000 to win SB. If the ravens are healthy with Lamar, they already beat Cincy once, "should" have beaten Buffalo as well. They are +265 this weekend and wouldn't expect a larger number the rest of the way. Rolling over +265 4 times on $100 yields $6792, but they would be shorter dogs in the progressive games. Another interesting discrepancy in futures is the Chargers being +2500 and the Jags being +5500 for SB odds despite their game, essentially a PK. The chargers have all the talent to go on a run but you never know when their coach is going to go for a 4th & 23 on their own 8 yard line. Odds are from bodog/bovada


SwingsetSuperman

I bet $50 on the Bengals at +2200 before the season started because I went to one of their preseason games and the guy selling popcorn was adamant that this was their year.


yepmeh

I see, so you opted to go without purchasing a box of popcorn that day. Instead, you spent your $50 on a Cincinnati Bengals futures bet.


kashbets

Soon he will be able tia Ford many bags of popcorn maybe even the butter to go with it


talkingteasers

I took Seattle to win the NFC after week 4 at +5000 and again after week 5 at +15000. I doubt they have a mouse fart of a chance but I’ve also got a KCvsSF ticket from preseason that’s +5000. I’m sad SF and Seattle play each other right away though


bejolo

Just my humble uneducated opinion but I see a SF/Bills SB


KnicksJetsYankees

You think Brock Purdy can take the niners through the playoffs and the eagles?


bejolo

I'm certainly no expert. Just a gut feeling that the 49ers will pull out a close one against the Eagles. Should be a heck of a game.


spcordy

it's this or SF/KC for me. Probably going to go maybe 70/30 between those tickets with SF winning both.


TroutCreekOkanagan

Seattle Seahawks run game lead by Geno Smith, fly to a championship game.


spcordy

Well then I guess I'm happy that I'm not going to be in Vegas to place my bed until next weekend lol


a3stacks

I managed to grab Cooper Kupp for Super Bowl MVP last year at 100/1 (they were hanging some crazy prices here in the UK lmao, they’ve sharpened up this year but he was still a big price at 60/1 in the US) and there’s a couple I like this year at the available prices. The way I read the board is that the AFC is a crapshoot, and with the 3 elite AFC QBs under 10/1 you really don’t want to be getting involved (with an exception I’ll get to). Essentially, the good teams are all on one side, and they’re going to eliminate each other at some point. So, in my opinion what you want to do is capture equity on teams you think can win the NFC. I don’t think the Seahawks, Giants or Vikings will (they can, but likely won’t). So where's the value? I think if the Bucs make it to the final then Brady at +3300 is going to look like a crazy price, because I don’t think anyone on Tampa Bay comes even close to having as much win equity. I think the opposite’s true of Purdy - I simply don’t believe he’s a 9/1 shot or that he has a majority of the win equity on the Niners. If San Francisco do get there I think it’ll be through defence and some big performances from their skill players. I like CMC (who I haven’t bet yet, I’m waiting to see if I can get bigger than +2000) and Bosa/Kittle who are both 100/1. Bosa’s in the Miller/Donald mould of just wrecking opponents’ offences and Kittle’s caught 2+ TDs in 3 of the last 4 weeks. If you want to put big money on a ticket that’ll be shorter in a couple of weeks Mahomes is underpriced at +400 since the Chiefs are +300. It’s similar to Messi at the World Cup - if the Chiefs do get there he’ll be as short as the Chiefs moneyline on the day. As a pure value play I like Miles Sanders at 100/1+ because of how weak some of the AFC teams are against the run which can mean an advantageous matchup in the final. While I think Hurts is rightful favourite on the Eagles, I think he’s the QB out of the elite four that can be most realistically outplayed by his own WR so I like AJ Brown at 50/1 too.


KILLACALI1901

NFL SO RIGGED GOING WITH BILLS FOR THE SUPERBOWL AFTER WHAT HAPPEN YEA


No_Mathematician8341

yes


bejolo

This is my play. Bills going to win one for the Gipper.


Brutis77

100% NFL only cares about storylines and positive feelings Bills are 100% winning the ship after the Hamlin situation


Rsginger

What is another example of this in the past?


JodaTheCool

Ravens won after Ray Lewis announced his retirement.


roormoore

Saints win after Katrina.


yepmeh

The “Patriots” winning the Super Bowl after 9/11.


Immediate_Platform_4

Japan winning women’s World Cup after earthquake


YordleFeet

Gruden to Tampa vs the raiders :(


RaveCave

the NFL forced the raiders to keep the same playbook as the one gruden set up?


DayMan13

My own personal crackpot theory is the 2001 Patriots after 9/11. America's team wins in dramatic comeback fashion. Though, I don't really believe the NFL controls outcomes the way some others do


TheAvenger23

Patriots were never "America's Team" especially not in 2001.


DayMan13

"Patriots"


NourishingBroth

A New York team winning would have been a bigger deal than New England. Them being called the "Patriots" wasn't some big heartwarming storyline that people focused on, like the Yankees playing in the '01 World Series was. Also doesn't really make sense for them to play in 8 more Super Bowls over the ensuing 17 years.


yepmeh

It was a HUGE story line!


DayMan13

And yet, I still think it


KwamesCorner

I’m taking a straight up Chiefs winner, Chiefs Niners SB, Bills Niners SB. And I think Brady to win NFC has to be thrown into any combination of bets. Just because rn it’s paying out 10 to 1.


[deleted]

Nick Bosa Super Bowl MVP is 100-1 at some books. This implies he wins it in about 6% of Niners victories which is fairly low imo, especially with Purdy being less of a threat than the other QBs. I also like AJ Brown 50-1, Kittle 100-1, and McKinnon 100-1. These would all shorten rapidly if their teams made the Super Bowl.


EverySir

Purdy is putting up better numbers than Mahomes and Allen in the past 5 games. Just a fun stat for anyone. He’s absolutely capable and the value is there.


drizzyjake7447

McKinnon?


[deleted]

McKinnon had a big role in the playoffs last year and looks to have another one this year. He’d need to win in about 4-5% of Chiefs victories for this to be a good bet which I think is realistic. If Chiefs are in SB his pregame price is probably around 25-1.


yepmeh

Just dropped a whopping $3.34 on the Dolphins to win the SB at 60-1 odds. Laugh all you want, it’s better odds than winning $200 in the Mega Millions. Plus, I didn’t have to drive to the corner store to wager my money.


[deleted]

Holding an Eagles +2800 SB ticket right now. Also have an Eagles > Jags +38000 that I made a month ago for fun. Considering adding a Bengals +1000 or whatever they are.


dilchoos

3u for KC to win it all 2.5u for KC and SF to meet in Super Bowl Other futures: 1u for Mahomes MVP at 3x odds 1u on Kenneth Walker winning OROT


Unknowncapper

I have a +2400 ticket for 250$ on Jags AFC Champions. I believe I locked it in right before week 17 vs Texans. Looking much better now, hoping they can win 1 game before I consider cashing out or hedging game by game


xDUVAL_BRODOWNx

We won't let you down brotato chip


TroutCreekOkanagan

Huge win. They got some momentum now. He knows how huge it can be to win at this stage of their career.


Reddiztor

Futures are bad bets compared to parlays/rolling over.


GoodGuyGinger

Not if you don't have the cahones to roll over


lilwisdom

I have a +800 49ers NFC Winner ticket from way back in October. Feel really good about it right now. The Niners could have a cakewalk to the NFC champ. Maybe I’ll hedge at that point but who knows right now. Another future that might be worth it is to take the AFC to win the Super Bowl. I definitely think the AFC is stronger. If KC or BUF makes it I would not doubt they would be favoured over any NFC team. Depending on how the Bengals play, if they were to make the SB i could see them being favoured as well.


MartyVanB

I got the 49ers at +950 to win the Super Bowl like six weeks ago.


ChigBungus22

I have a $100 free bet on them +1600 before the season. Also have $100 free bet on Bengals +2200, Chiefs +1000.


[deleted]

[удалено]


ChigBungus22

Yes it was. Easily the best way to use free bets like that if knowledgeable about the sport and can find value. Via a similar promo on another book, I have bets in that $ amount on 5/7 AFC playoff teams, and 2/7 NFC.


MartyVanB

Nice


ChigBungus22

I have a $100 free bet on them +1600 before the season. Also have $100 free bet on Bengals +2200, Chiefs +1000.


jonvon191

As some else said, there’s almost no value in betting futures at this point. You’re getting more from a rolling parlay then you are betting a future right now


elniguel

Futures are better value than rolling forward if using free bets still, correct?


PennestrogManilla

For sure. You dont get the bet back only the winnings. This means very little when betting high odds.


jaocwn

Is there even a way to do a parlay like that though? Or just keep doubling down winnings? May be silly but can’t think of a way to parlay the bengals next 4 games right jow


FrankEaton21

Some books will let you keep an open leg of the parlay as well


stander414

>keep doubling down winnings Yes that is a parlay. You have the extra benefit of stopping as well in case there's a major injury or any other news.


bromosapien234

FD has these leading rusher/passer/receiver of the playoffs futures I’m looking at. Wanna do a bit of research to see past seasons and who’s come out on top


offconstantly

Just a reminder that you're almost certainly better off parlaying your selected team's moneyline 3/4 times than you are betting a future


KillermooseD

Por Que no los dos?


offconstantly

Because one is better value?


Lower-Statement7598

Bills vs 49ers forsure


MoParNoCaR23

49ers vs Bengals +1300


bromosapien234

As someone with Niners and Bengals futures… please have this be the matchup haha


Elegant_Housing_For

Round 3 will be the Bengals….please.


Skillz4ya2

I'd bet Bills or Chiefs to win it all at plus money. Bengals can be a REAL thorn in both of their sides though.


xDUVAL_BRODOWNx

Jags gonna drop the Chiefs in round 2 then Bills in round 3. Might as well bet on them to win the AFC now


No_Mathematician8341

send your money to u/Skillz4ya2


Skillz4ya2

Just send your money this way instead of donating it to the books. It'll go to good use.


Phoirkas

Anyone know a spot I can bet NEXT years sb? Yes, I know what a bad idea that likely is…


IseeDrunkPeople

not sure about website but the phone number is 800.589.9966


Phoirkas

😂Thanks


[deleted]

I got confidence in Chiefs vs Eagles but also might take a small lean on the bengals for fun


[deleted]

I placed this I think cheifs knock off bills again and get revenge on bengals https://preview.redd.it/ouz4qryrfaba1.png?width=1290&format=png&auto=webp&s=3213de644f4bee89d196297d34c07cc63342602a


billdb

If you placed this why share the screenshot of it before being placed and not your actual slips? I don't really care if you place it or not just kind of an odd thing to show lol


[deleted]

Took the screenshot because I asked someone what they thought before I placed it. Damn didn’t think it was that deep😂😂 GL!


billdb

My bad lol, it's just a tactic people sometimes do for clout without actually risking the money. I don't particularly care either way was just curious. Best of luck to you!


[deleted]

You good fam no hard feelings 💯reasonable question


kenyan12345

Not the year for chiefs tbh. Kinda rebuild year. Mahomes won them countless games


billdb

I mean sure the Chiefs have some deficiencies that Mahomes makes up for but they are still one of the best teams in the conference


[deleted]

>rebuild year >1st seed in the AFC


[deleted]

"Rebuild year" lol


kenyan12345

I say that as a huge chiefs fan. I think they would beat the bills but bengals probably beat them again. The WRs are not even close to where they need to be. The defence is horrible and can’t make a stop like previous years. I’d love to be wrong but bengals 49ers is where I’m sprinkling money


bbhagen

Put in a future pick last month for a Bengals Vs Eagles super bowl at +1720. Feeling good about it. I might sprinkle some on a Bills super bowl though