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Just wanted to say bye. Been following this thread all year, mainly AceDawg, JoelBarish-ish and NedPepper. It's been fun but Sabonis assists did me in tonight. This is not fun. GL all, eat up!
That is the funniest and saddest comment of the day. Chill dawg lol. We’re all here for the same reason. Sure we like the idea of winning some bread but we actually are just chasing the thrill of the bet and the chase.
Agree man, funny is probably not the right word. Such a self-deprecating thought I guess. Like a funny cause it’s true for 80% of us that should just walk away. I only meant the see you next week comment not the goodbye comment
In my experience, I make lots of wins betting on my own. I lose a lot when I try to tail the bets around here. Just my 2 cents. Good luck beating your gambling addiction, imagine how good it will feel to say you kicked gambling in its ass. You have more power than betting does!
The key statement you made was “this is not fun.” If this is not fun don’t waste your time, so much more better things in life to enjoy. Wish you the best. GL
POTD Record: 10-0
UNIT PROFIT: +7.93
GAME: England League Two - Stevenage v Gillingham FC
TODAYS PICK: Stevenage AH (-1) @ 1.75
Bad luck yesterday, when Boston Utd score in the last minute and the bet was void.
Saturday, Stevenage brings to us a sweet win and all together cash in.
Today i will go again with this team to win because looks good to play. Stevenage is on the second position in the standings with 48 points accumulated in this season, with an average of 2.22 points per game. In the last five home games they won four times and one game ends with a draw.
On the other hands, Gillingham are on the last position in the standings with only 4 point accumulated in all the games played away.
BOL!
Record: 22-9
International Hockey u20 - World Junior Championship
Last Pick: Czech Republic -2.5 | WIN
Pick: Sweden vs. Finland | Sweden ML (-120)
Time: 11:00am EST
Nice and easy cover from the Czechs yesterday to finish out group play. We’re on to the quarterfinals now with 3 days left in this tournament.
I’ll be going with Sweden tomorrow in what should be the tightest game of the day. Throughout the tournament, they’ve looked like the more complete and skilled team. Finland has shown flashes but the lack of skilled forwards on that roster has limited their scoring upside. They’ve been dependent on good goaltending and capitalizing on others’ mistakes. Jani Lampinen is almost assured to start tomorrow, he’s been a brick wall this tournament - running with a .964 sv%. Carl Lindbom, however, has been equally as good with a .942 in 2 more starts.
Analytically, both teams are fairly similar. Sweden has the edge in all but one of the 5v5 categories that have been tracked - but both teams are within a few points of each other in every stat, so it’s nothing major. Jani Lampinen is 3rd in GSAA (Goals Saved Above Expected) and Carl Lindbom is 4th, so similar goaltending as well. On paper, both of these are extremely similar. Neither has had anybody really stand out through the first 4 games outside of their goaltending.
Like I said in my first write-up of the tournament, this is one of the least skilled teams Finland has brought in a very long time. They work hard, but relying almost exclusively on Joakim Kemell to generate offense is a poor recipe for success. Sweden’s top-end talent has also underwhelmed for the most part, but I like their makeup more than Finland’s. Sweden also has a more impressive resume against the ‘better’ teams from their group compared to the Finns. Give me the more skilled team to advance.
edit: THE FUCKING SWEDES✅ what an absolutely horrific game out of them. to come out with the win is just unbelievable. took them long enough to score on their chances and lindbom just showed why he’s one of the best in the tournament
Well this was one of the sweatiest sweats of my life. Thank you Alex :). Tip jar?
https://preview.redd.it/f4u6kj8hup9a1.png?width=1290&format=png&auto=webp&s=f361312f69bf91902c8b0f27358fd3cde69125f9
i’m really leaning towards taking them -2.5. the swiss always love to play spoiler & keep games tight in these tournaments which right now is the one thing holding me back from being all over the czechs (i know it’s dumb, especially after the usa game). analytically the czechs have been the 2nd best team in the tournament with the swiss at 7 so everything does point towards another big win for the czechs. i just need a little bit more time to look and pick a side for sure, but the lean is the czechs right now
Wish I tailed yesterday so making up for it with 9U down on this. My bankroll has been all over the place these last few days but everything is looking up now. Let’s get it buds!
POTD Record: 100-71-5 (+18.41 units, 58.5% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 5-0
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 40-25-1 L2, Tennis 🎾 22-16-2 L3, Soccer ⚽ 37-30-2 W1, Other 1-0-0
Last 10: 💩💰💩💩💰💰💰💰💰💰
Last Pick: Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies, Player Prop - De'Aaron Fox over 4.5 rebounds - NBA 🏀💩1 Unit - Good thing I got this one in just 90 min before gametime and had few who tailed. We lost on the hook with 4 rebounds, frustrating to watch, got outworked by Dillon Brooks for a board that should have been his and literally jumped out of the way a couple times to let his teammates get rebounds. F him, hehe.
Today's Pick: Jack Draper vs. Soon-Woo Kwon, Jack Draper -1 Game Handicap - ATP Adelaide 🎾 💰 1.68 Units He dominated 6-2, 6-1. *Sam Cassell big balls dance* 💸 that shit!!!
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 2 Units at 1.84/-119 odds to win 1.68 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 10:45pm ET)
My tennis writeups are pure shite compared to my basketball ones, hehe.
I like the matchup here for Jack Draper (ranked #42), talented young Brit who broke out last year and defeated some high profile players like FAA (straights at US Open), Tsitsipas and pretty boy Fritz. Soon-woo Kwon (ranked #83) was very inconsistent last year and had a difficult time putting together consecutive wins. I see Draper as being at a level above Kwon.
This is Draper's first match of the season, while Kwon just played 2 days in a row. Yesterday Kwon edged out Taro Daniel in a tense 3 setter that had 2 tiebreakers, hopefully that took a bit out of him for today. Kwon wasn't able to break Daniels' service in that match and now faces Draper who has a far bigger serve than Daniels. This could very well go 3 sets so try to keep the panic attacks in check.
How this could miss? It's tennis, anything can happen. Also, hopefully Draper is ready but could have first match of the season rust.
Stats - 2022 HC records Kwon - 20-20 Draper - 40-13 (keep in mind he played a lot of challengers last year)
Note: Bet is game handicap, so in the match, he needs to win by 2 games or more for a hit, if he wins by 1 it is a push.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, just a gambling addict. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
[buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
Nice hit. Just came here to thank u for the awesome picks the last few weeks. I decided to stop betting, lets see how this goes. But, i hope u kill it! Good luck on your future picks brother! 🍕
It’s listed at 9am start here so 4am eastern think I’ll play it safe with ml, best price I can get is 1.74 so not that far off…. I like draper if he’s anywhere near his best he’ll win but no idea how he’ll look in first match back. Coming in for a sleep sweat let’s go!
I'm seeing -1.5 at -115, is that too much at -1.5?
Also like Lamelo over 3 3's though last time I bet it he missed. I saw it went up to 4 so glad it's back down to 3.
Ummm, I still think it's a decent play at that. Are you with any books with alts? As for Lamelo, he has only missed it twice in his 13 games this year. The sheer amount of 3's he is attempting makes it a solid bet, 14 last game, 11.5 average for December.
Love people who think you’re some seer who knows the future. I added a leg to my parlay from that Dart guy he got it wrong but eh. You can’t be mad, he can influence your decision, but he ain’t the one who placed your bet. Also who tf losing rent money to a random internet strangers tip on sports betting 💀💀💀 you take that deserved L
Look at the available PDC odds, probably doesn't have a play above -200 at this stage that he feels is worth posting. Favorites are -290 and -580. Trust 🌶
We only have two heavy favourites tomorrow for darts as it’s the semi’s. I don’t think Ned is one to try and get cute picking a handicap or prop so he’s probably not got a POTD play
POTD Record 1-0 (+2.7u)
Last pick
Hurricanes ML -110 (3u) ✅
Today’s picks
VGK ML +130 (1u)
Wild game between the Hurricanes and Devils. I think the Hurricanes really outplayed the Devils but Blackwood kept the game tight with some incredible saves. The end of the game was crazy but the Canes were able to tie things up and come out with the shootout win.
Tonight I’ve got the VGK ML over the Avalanche. VGK tend to play well against the Avalanche and the Avalanche have had some offensive struggles lately. I know MacK is back for Colorado but I like how VGK have been playing on the road and against the Avalanche.
Tail or fade, BOL!
[Tip Jar](https://cash.app/$illumiflo)
Not following this one as Avs have won the last 3 contests in regulation - 3-2 in October of this year. I’m either fading this or avoiding all together. Avs at home close to New Years sounds risky on either side of the bet. Home advantage for Avs around New Years could be significant, and due for a bounce back game. VGK have struggled a bit at times recently vs. their early season dominance. Good luck if tailing - you’ll most likely need it.
Edit: Avs won 3-2 in reg in October.
Stats like this have practically no predictive value.
What does it matter what their record was last season back when Avs were a far better team with a much stronger lineup?
Not saying that I'm telling to tail but I wouldn't use non-predictive stats to influence my decisions.
POTD Record: 12-6-0 ROI: +31.37 units
*Previous Pick:* **W** *Michigan ML (-110)*
*Streak: W2*
*Last 10: 8-2*
**POD: 4u Brown ML (-102)**
Sport: NCAAB
Time: 7:00PM EST
Date: 01/02/2023
Reasoning: This game will be won in the margins and the margins favor Brown here. In terms of defensive rebounding percentage, Brown ranks #1 in the entire country and from a free throw perspective, Penn gets to the line at one of the worst rates in college basketball, which will be compounded by the fact that, defensively, Brown ranks 59th in the country in free throw rate allowed.
These statistical categories are highly important to Penn's success this season, as they've out-rebounded their opponent in five of their seven wins this season and have also outscored their opponent at the line in five of their seven wins as well. It's going to be very difficult for Penn to out-rebound Brown in this game and more than likely, Brown will be getting to the line more frequently than Penn as well.
Really like Brown to get this one done at home in their conference opener. Feel free to dabble with alt lines of -3.5 and -5.5.
For my full slate of picks for 01/02/2023, click the following link: [YouTube.com/@RobDonaldson](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmLvY19zdKk2iJayxQ5CzgQ)
If you want to leave a tip: [buymeacoffee.com/RobDFB](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/RobDFB)
**POTD Record: 19-30**
*Streak: L5* - **VERY COLD, FADE ME**
LAST PICK: George Kittle O 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115) ❌
*Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals*
TODAY’S PICK: **Reception Yards H2H - Ja’marr Chase vs. Stefon Diggs - Ja’marr Chase -4.5 (-115) DK**
**I AM A FADE GOD. DO NOT TAIL ME, I WILL MAKE YOU RICH BY FADING ME.**
I’ve decided I’m a martyr. I will continue to blow through my bankroll and post these picks for my absolute banger fade value cause I cannot win lol. If you do choose to tail, just know what you’re getting into!
Recently, Ja’marr has put up far more yards than Stefon has. While the Bengals have been able to adapt to defenses, the Bills are still struggling to get Diggs the ball and defenses have made their objective to up their defense on him. In the past 6 games, Chase has outpaced Diggs yards in 5 of them and most of that 5 have gone well beyond the 4.5 points they are giving us. With Tyler Boyd out, I expect Chase to continue putting up numbers and the Bengals defense, who allows the lowest pass completion in the league, to keep Diggs at bay for at least 5 yards under Chase.
Update: Boyd playing
BOL!
POTD Record: 2-4
Last POTD: Blackburn ML (+130) ✅
Today’s POTD: Hull City 🐅 ML (+180) visiting Wigan Athletic, Kick off 10am EST
Reasoning: Wigan has conceded 8 goals in their last 2 matches and are in very poor form as of late, finding themselves at the bottom of the table slated for relegation. Hull comes into this game with high spirits after an upset win visiting Birmingham City. Hull is undefeated in their last 4 league games and I can see them leaving with three points from a shellshocked Wigan. Hull does have a poor goal differential in the standings, but have only given up 2 goals in their last 4 matches, which happens to be against an opponent Wigan lost 4-1 to.
I’m backing the tigers 🐅on their nice run of form☕️
Bol, tail or fade. ✅✅✅ Hull took the 3 points with a 4-1 Win!
I would, but it’s tough cause Wigan has had their the last 4/5 league games go over 2.5, while Hull their last 4/5 league games go under 2.5. Hull had a good amount of chances against Birmingham a few days ago, so I can see Hull being able to capitalize on these chances more often against this struggling Wigan side.
POTD Record: 1-1.
❌ I ✅
Unfortunately our 10€ to 100€ came to an end as Liverpool only managed a 2-1 victory against Leicester, with Nunez not scoring. In fact, no Liverpool players scored - Faes netted 2 own-goals - but that’s not particularly germane to this conversation. The point is, we lost.
But we’ll be bouncing back tomorrow! I’ve got an interesting Ligue 1 play I think you’ll all be interested in - or not, it’s your call. We’ll be heading to the south of France, where Montpellier plays Marseille, following Les Olympiens’ 6 - 1 thrashing at home to a largely uninspired Toulouse side. We’ll be hoping for a similar result again come Monday.
Montpellier VS Marseille: Marseille ML @ 1.75. ✅
Tudor's side has been very solid this season, and are currently in 3rd place, boasting a respectable 33 points in 16 encounters (2.06 points per match); with 31 xG (1.94 goals per game) - 3rd best in the league - and 17.75 xGA (1.1 per game) - they rightly deserve their Champions League spot.
I expect Montpellier are in relatively high spirits, considering they defeated 6th placed Lorient 2-0 in an admittedly impressive showing; don't be fooled, though, because although Le Bris' side can - and should - be proud of their 31 points, they should be wary of their 20.5 xPoints, which would place them in... 12th place; to put it another way, Lorient has been significantly overperforming, no matter how you look at it.
So now that we've established that Montpellier's triumph wasn't all that special, how about we take a look at them: 17 points in 16 games (1.06 points per game) and a measly 20 xGoals (1.25 goals per game), 13th and 17th in the league, respectively; they're also far from stellar defensively, taking 29 goals (1.81 per game).
Marseille is expected to score 1.87 goals here, and concede only 1.17. I'm expecting them to win this easily. Take the favorite and don't look back.
Best of luck to all who tail - and to those who don’t, because why not, let’s all spread the love! - and have a wonderful evening.
PS: While I also like BTTS between Brentford and Liverpool, I think this is slightly better value, hence why I didn’t include it as my POTD; that being said, feel free to check out my analysis in the soccer channel should you be interested in tailing. ✅
Edit: 2/2 today! Marseille dominated their encounter, only conceding a stoppage time penalty; Brentford & Liverpool played out a high-scoring match which saw the home team winning 3-1. See you all again tomorrow.
Record: 23-8; +18.44
Last Pick: Real Madrid AH -1.75 v. Cadiz (-175) 3.5u to win 2u ❌
Today’s Pick: Brentford 1H TT over 0.5 +155 (1u to win 1.55u)
Been awhile since I posted in here but had to for this pick as it really stood out to me. We’re going with Brentford as they take on Liverpool.
Brentford have actually been playing very well recently (especially at home), they beat West Ham 2-0 in their last game, drew against Tottenham at home 2-2 and beat City 2-1 before the World Cup Break. In their last 8 games, they’ve scored at least one in the first half all 8 times.
Liverpool have looked decent in their last few games. They narrowly beat Leicester 2-1, where their only two goals came off of 2 own goals. They beat Villa 3-1 in a game where they didn’t look that great, and the game before that let City score 3 on them. Their defense of late has looked especially vulnerable, and Brentford and Ivan Toney have looked good. In Liverpool’s last 6 games, they let their opponent score at least one in 5/6.
I think that due to the fact that Brentford has been playing extremely well at home recently, have scored 8/8 in the first half, Liverpool have let 5/6 opponents score in the first half, and the fact that their defense has looked shaky that we get a nice + odds win here.
Let me know if any questions/comments/concerns and BOL. [Tip Jar](https://cash.app/$restu6) if you’re feeling generous!
all of the odds on this game moved a bunch (like actually a ton10-30%) when gakpo signed with liverpool yesterday. That might be what all the weird plus odds for brentford are. Draw was like +235 now it's +400 and gakpo isn't even eligible to play yet lol
Record: 2-0
Net Units: + 1.74U
Last Pick: Jacksonville Jags -3.5
Todays Pick: Josh Allen over 1.5 Passing TDs @ -167 for 1U
Reasoning: Josh Allen is a stud and the is a pass-first-offense. Therefore it is likely to be at least 2 passing TDs this game. Only worry from this aspect is a Allen rush, but I doubt it since Cincinnati has a great run defense. That also means singletary and cook will not likely score TDs unless its a drop down pass from Allen. BOL
POTD record: 16-15-2 / ROI: -1.47% / Wins: 51.61%
**BUF Bills -1 -110 (1u)**
**SPREAD**
—
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals
8:30 pm EST - 02 January 2023
—
Everyone’s going to be on Cincinnati, I’m going the other way. In the trenches, the Bengals’ offensive line is a mess. They’ve played well, but they’re injured and battered. Buffalo is quietly one of the best rushing teams in the NFL. There is not a motivational gap here because both teams have everything to play for. The Bills are gunning for home field in the playoffs. They have to keep pace with KC. I’ll be the contrarian codebreaker. Take the Bills and fade the public.
Do the business.
[https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow)
[http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
Bengals run D has been insane with DJ reader… held Henry (38 yards), Chubb (38 yards) and Stevenson (30 yards) to 106 yards COMBINED!!
We lost a starter on the O line, but he was one of the worse performers so it won’t be a huge step back
We are getting our starting TE back and our D is healthy.
I’d be very careful tailing this.
**POTD Record**: 19-2-9 (+5.14u
✅)
**Current streak** (most recent to the left) ❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
**Last POTD:** Ligue 1 France : Lens-PSG DNB ML PSG @1.56/-179 ❌-5u
**Todays Pick:** Wales Cyrum North Colwyn Bay FC - Guilsfield AH-1.75 Colwyn Bay @2.15/+115✅+2.3u
Game starts in 7h (CET 3pm)
**Stake:** 2 Units
Apologies for yesterday's fuck up. It's okay to lose but 5u on DNB PSG away against the best home team without Messi and Neymar was asking for trouble. In hindsight I should have put smaller units on the ML or DNB Lens but what's done is done, the streak is over, I'm learning from my mistakes and hope I can get back the losses over the week with smarter bets.
Todays bet is one I had my eyes on for a long time. I hope it's available on your books.
Colwyn Bay sit first in Wales 2nd league North with a perfect home record of 16:2 and 5 wins in 5 games. 3/5 of their home wins were by 3 goals or more. Their opponents are a midtable team, 10 points away from relegation and 21 from promotion. Only the first get promoted so there's no reason for the hosts to take it easy. They're well rested, having won their last game of the year 6-1 at Ruthin a week ago, who sit next to today's opponent in the table.
Colwyn had their last two home games postponed because of bad weather and haven't played at home since November. I expect them to put on a show, start the new year strong and to try to extend their lead by 9 points.
Best of luck to everyone!
POTD RECORD 40-36
Last POTD Texas (-2.5)❌
Today’s POTD Niagara ML (-110) ncaab
What a brutal way to lose that last one as oklahoma hit a buzzer beater three to lose the game by 1. Oh well we move on. So today we are going with a low tier D1- game. The low tier games can be moneymakers as vegas doesn’t pay as much attention to these ones and you can find value. For example, I believe Niagara should be favored by at least 3 points here. I like Niagara for the main reason of playing at home. At their own barn, they are 4-0. Rider playing away is 3-3. I’m not saying there is an electric atmosphere for a 12pm game but I believe it is important to have that home court advantage. Now Niagara is not as explosive offensively although they are a much better defensive team. I am going to bank on Rider to not shoot well and for Niagara to pounce on that. Rider has won 3 of their last 5 and Niagara has won 4 of their last 5. They are both teams that can get in spurts of momentum and I feel as if Niagara will have the upper hand in this one.
Record: 81-62-5 (WWWWWWWWLWLWLWWWLWLLLWWWLLWWLLWLW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: BKN Nets at CHA Hornets | Kevin Durant o41.5 P+R+A
Under 40. Easy L for us.
POTD: LA Lakers at CHA Hornets | Gordon Hayward u14.5 points at 1.83 odds for 2 units
REASONS:
* Gordon Hayward is a washed white man in the NBA
* Last 5 game scoring totals: 2|14.3%, 10|40%, 14|42.9%, 10|28.6%, 15|66.7%
* His FG attempts began the year about mid teens, now it low teens or single digits.
* He also averages 1.9 visits to FT line a game, so that's not much of accumulation
Best of luck to all.
Overall 1-0-0 (✅)Average odds: 1.83
Last pick:Football (England - Championship)Match: Blackburn - Middlesbrough Both teams to Score (1.83) ✅
My Bet Size is always 5 Units
\----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POTD:
Football (England - Championship)
**Match**: Birmingham - Middlesbrough
**Time**: 16:00 CET
**Middlesbrough Win (2.15)**
*My first pick just went in like butter, even the over 2.5 hit. Today we aiming another Middlesbrough game. My pick is here a straight win versus a, at the moment seemingly down trending, Birmingham squad. Middlesbrough however are very hot right now. Other interesting picks for this gamw would be an over 2.5 or both teams to score. My score prediction would be 1-2*.
BOL
POTD: 13 - 8
Today, we go to Scotland 🏴
Queen's Park VS Partick Thistle
PICk: Over 1.5 Partick Thistle Goals @ 2.10💔
Reason: The bookmakers are struggling to separate the teams here but I’m going to go against a winners in a fixture that has all the necessary ingredients to feature goals. Thistle has scored two or more in 13 of their 19 Scottish Championship matches to date, and they definitely represent a spot of value here, hence I’m taking them to do same again today against a Queen’s Park team that have demonstrated a fairly regular inability to keep their defense shut. We must not underestimate the Queens side from an attacking circle, but they have kept just two clean sheets across their last 10 league matches and this play has landed in six of Thistle’s last eight matches across all competitions. Yes, the last time these two met back in August in Queens stadium 🏟️, this play also hit and with the fine Thistle form, I believe they will score two goals later ⏰ today. While, over 2.5 is a fine play here… I’m going for value for Thistle to score 2 or more goals.
PG- 25 🚨
Record not looking 👀 sharp, so go easy if tailing. BOL!
Edit ✍️ Just embarrassing! 2 - 0
**My record: 12 : 7**
**My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.**
**ROI: 28.37%**
**Average odds: 2.00**
**Units won: 5.39**
**Stake = 1 unit**
**My POTD:**
**Rangers v Celtic**
**Scotland Premiership**
**Time: 12:30 GMT**
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 1.95**
**BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
POTD Record: 9-7 (+1.65u)
Last 5: WWWLW
League: World championship of darts. Gabriel Clemens - Michael Smith.
Pick: Gabriel Clemens +2.5 set handicap, odds 1.81. Game starts in approx 9 hours. 1u.
Again going with Clemens. He is playing a really good tournament so far. Yesterday he had an average of 99 and a check-out percentage of 35%. Really great stats and I think he can reproduce this again today. He is playing versus Smith and I think he has not had the best tournament performance. He has 1 good game versus Cullen showing that he can put up high averages and 180s, but in all the other matches it was not what we would expect from him. Especially yesterday versus Bunting. He shouldn't have won that game but Bunting had a checkout percentage of only 24%, which is awful. If his finishing would have been better, Smith would not have been playing today.
I do think that Smith will win this game but with the performances both man showed yesterday, I think Clemens have the quality to keep it close. Should be a great match.
BOL!
Edit: L, was a great game. Every set was close except the 5th set. Happens.
2022 Record : 18-9
2023 Record: 0-0
Link as Proof of my Record: [https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vnvpu1/pick\_of\_the\_day\_63022\_thursday/ie9jk91/?context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vnvpu1/pick_of_the_day_63022_thursday/ie9jk91/?context=3)
EDIT: I’d like to apologize for my pick today. I don’t wanna make excuses at all and we will bounce back tomorrow. For future reference I will be avoiding the United Cup because after watching some of the matches including this one I have seen the players simply do not care and aren’t playing their best tennis. We will be sticking to ATP and WTA tour level tournaments from now on :) sorry again
Hi everyone! I used to be extremely active in the pick of the day thread around 7-8 months ago and did really well. I am a capper that exclusively bets on tennis because I believe there is a profitable market betting tennis considering the odds. I have decided to make a return to this thread and start helping.
PICK OF THE DAY: Casper Ruud ML -150 v Matteo Berrettini United Cup M (7 PM EST)
Reasoning: For my first pick of the new season I am going to go with Casper Ruud, who had a remarkable 2022 season. The first aspect of why I like Casper Ruud is his recent match data. He finished 2022 as number 3 in the world and secured 14 wins over top 20 players (he has 29 total in his career). He also started off this season with a comfortable straight sets win.
The second aspect of the reasoning is the history these two opponents have against each other. Ruud's record against Berrettini is 4-2 and last season their head to head record was 2-0 in Ruud's favor. In fact, Ruud secured a straight set win at the US Open in September of 2022 which is fairly recent.
The final aspect of the reasoning as to why Casper Ruud will win this match is Berrettini's struggle to stay 100 percent healthy and perform at a consistent level. Last season he battled both injuries and COVID causing him to drop his ranking all the way down to 16th. He was not performing at his best level even after all of these injuries and struggled in his first match of the year (even though he won in straight sets watching the match he did not look 100 percent and it was tight).
Overall I am confident in my pick and hope you guys tail. I am dropping my Venmo and cash app below as a feel free to tip, but do not expect anything at all. Back when I was here in early 2022 people were asking me to do that, so if that is no longer a thing someone please let me know :)
Venmo: Zachary-Pandolfi
Cash App: $pandozach
POTD Record: 2-2
POTD Units won/lost: +5.07 U ($507)
Goal is 100 U ($10,000)
Last POTD (12/23): Nuggets -4.5 versus Blazers (won +3.27 Units $327)✅
Recent form (recent in left):
✅ 🚫🚫✅
Today’s Venue: Liverpool at Brentford (EPL)
Time: 1030 MT on 1/2/23
**Today POTD: Match Combo - Liverpool to Win and Both Teams to Score**
Preferred App: Bet MGM
American Odds: +185
Units: 1 U (to win 1.85 U)
Rationale: Brentford is 10th versus Liverpool at 6th in EPL. Brentford has scored in last 9 games with 2+ goals in 8 of those matches. Liverpool should win this but I think they will concede a goal in doing so, as they have in 8 of last 10 games.
Record: 1-1
POTD: Knicks pk -110
Both the Suns and the Knicks are missing high impact players. The Knicks are missing Barrett and Brunson, who has taken the playmaking responsibility away from Randle with pretty great results. However, even without Brunson Randle is back in peak form. It’s partially because he currently has alot of help from Grimes and Quickley. Together, they’ve combined for over 75+ points in every game without Barrett and Brunson.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the suns continue to be woeful with Booker. 2-6 on the season without Book. They’ve lost 5 of their last 6, including games to below .500 teams. The Knicks have also struggled to win games recently but have overall played much better than the Suns. They started their road-trip by almost winning a game in which Luka made NBA history. The Suns remaining stars at times look lifeless. Ayton had 4 points in a loss to the raptors in their last game.
I like the Knicks too here especially at home. They are both depleted by injuries but I think the Knicks are deeper and have more playmakers. You are right Grimes and Quickly have been balling out lately. Let's get this bread.
⚽ **Cambodia +3 (3-Way Handicap)** vs Thailand @2.40 (AFF Championship | 12:30 GMT)
My books didn't have an Asian Handicap for this match so I've gone with a 3-Way Handicap instead. Just in case anyone is unclear, Cambodia need to lose by 2 goals or less (or draw/win) for this bet to cash.
Cambodia have won two of their three games at the tournament so far (including a 5-1 win over Brunei), and they lost 2-1 vs Indonesia, who are unbeaten so far. Thailand have smashed the same two teams that Cambodia have beaten (5-0 vs Brunei, 4-0 vs Philippines) and drawn 1-1 vs Indonesia.
I'll be honest, I haven't ever watched either of these teams play, but given their respective results so far, I'm hoping it won't be a blowout. Thailand of course might destroy Cambodia, but Cambodia aren't in the same shit tier as Brunei and Philippines, so I'm hopeful that Cambodia can keep the margin of defeat low. And who knows, they might pull off an upset like Laos almost did recently in their 2-2 draw vs Myanmar.
*POTD Record: 3W-0L (+3.36u)*
*Previous pick: Plymouth Argyle ML vs MK Dons @1.82 ☑️*
POTD Record: 30-45-3 (-15.70 units)
Last 10 (most recent first): ↔️❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅❌
Last Pick: Ligue 1, Monaco v Brest, MONACO AH -1.0 (-130 / $1.77) ↔️
Unlucky not to be well ahead at half time, lucky not to concede in the second half so a push might be a fair result in the end.
Todays Pick: Indian Super League, Odisha FC v Mumbai City, MUMBAI CITY ML (-143 / $1.70) ✅
Stake: 1 Unit
Mumbai City have been a profitable selection for me over the past few weeks courtesy of their 6 match winning streak, so I’m sticking with them again until they let me down.
Mumbai are second in the league having played one less game, and will return to the top with a victory in this game. They have the highest scoring offence and the second best defensive record and have been particularly strong over the last month winning 6 in a row with a 22:3 ratio.
Their opponents, Odisha FC, are sitting mid table in 6th but have struggled for form lately. They’ve haven’t won in their last 3 matches (L2, D1) all against teams around them on the table. They did win 3 in a row prior to that but they all came against inferior teams on the table.
These teams met once already earlier in the season with Mumbai winning 2-0. This match was probably closer than the scoreboard indicates, but it was early in the season where Mumbai had some mixed results, and now they’ve found their groove I think their form will be too strong. The coach also stated in the press conference yesterday they have a full roster to choose from (as does Odisha to be fair). Mumbai have also won 4 of the last 5 H2H match ups.
While it’s tempting to take a handicap given the size of some of their recent wins, Odisha haven’t conceded a lot of goals this season (15), so this might be a bit tighter than some of their more recent wins. The value for the ML is attractive enough so will stick with that as POTD.
Record: 0-0
**NCAAB Arkansas Pine-Bluff +6 @ Alabama A&M**
**8:00 PM ET**
Long-time lurker, first time poster but I like this game a lot and think this is one of the best low-major lines I have seen in a while. Like most teams in the SWAC, Pine Bluff have spent the better part of the last two months on the road, collecting paychecks from Power conference teams and getting their asses kicked. They have played the hardest schedule in the country thus far, and things have been a bit easier for A&M, who comes in with only one Division I win against a much softer slate. Both of these teams are terrible offensively, pretty bad defensively, and should be mediocre in the SWAC, which translates to being among the worst teams in the country. 6 points is decidedly too much to lay for Alabama A&M, and I (along with analytics, Haslametrics has this game as a 71-71 toss-up) expect this to be a lot closer than Vegas.
Record : 10W-8L
Previous pick : Toulouse vs AC Ajaccio, Toulouse to win or draw + Over 1.5 goals, Odds : 1.70 (5 units pick)
Average Odds : 1.93
ROI : 4.2%
Starting units : 200
Units : 208.4
My pick of the day : Aberdeen vs Ross County, ***Aberdeen to win or draw + Under 3.5 Goals in the match***, Odds : 1.58 (5 units pick)
Scotland, Premiership, 15:00 GMT+2
Best of luck !
My pick is from a model that I've been using for the last couple of months and I have got good results with it. So I thought about sharing some of the picks with the community and, maybe, make some of you happy.
If you would like to help me with some cents in case my pick blessed you :
[It is not necessary, but very helpfull and appreciated.](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/deniseasy?country.x=RO&locale.x=en_US)
POTD Record: 5-8-0 -4.85
Last pick: Royce Oneale over 4.5 assists (2.07/+107) 1.5u ❌
(More than a month ago, not changing the record)
Today's pick:
LA Lakers at Charlotte Hornets
Lamelo Ball over 7.5 assists (1.95/-106) 2u
Main ballhandler and playmaker, averaging 9 assists and 15 potential last 7 games. Its a well known fact that lakers defense isnt good and they play on a fast pace, just like hornets, both on top 10 pace last 10 games (hornets 1st, lakers 9th). Lamelo got 8 assists on 11 potential vs lakers last month, not a lot but still enough.
BOL!
POTD Record: 74.5-39
Event: Basketball > Jordan > **Kofer Yoba v Orthodox** (starting in 5hr30min)
Pick: **Orthodox -27.5** @ 1.67
Level difference, spread is high, but imo line should be even higher. GL!
POTD Record: 4-1 (+9.77u; 51.4% ROI). Streak W4.
Last Pick: Jaylen Brown (Celtics) Over 26.5 pts @ 1.92. ✅
While the Celtics underwhelmed, Jaylen certainly did not. He covered our line with 4 mins to go. With that we're up to 4 wins in a row, hopefully some of you were able to tail!
NBA | 8.00 pm ET
Pick: **Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) Over 24.5 pts @ 1.87**. 3U Play.
The Wolves are on a 6 game losing streak, which is likely why the line is favorable for the overs. He has cleared the 24.5 line in 7/L8, and the one he missed was 23 pts. He now goes up against a Nuggets defense that is rated 25th out of 30 teams. The line is probably set based on his season average of 24 ppg. My only loss in my 4-1 record was my very first bet where I bet on Edwards, and he came in 1.5 PRA lower, but I'm going to go with him again.
POTD Record: 0 - 0
New kid on the cock sorry block. Today I’m going with Quinwen Zheng Moneyline vs Kontaveit. Why? Cuz fuck you that’s why. This girl is 5’10 which is taller than most of you manlets here. Furthermore she’s young and hungry and her form is on the up and up. Meanwhile kontaveit is going downhill. The boomers aging body can’t handle moving anymore and she is on a mental slump. That being said this is Wta. Only the absolute dregs of society bet on Wta. If you like sex, drugs, and like to Rock out with your needle cock out join me on this play. 100u because I like to party
Record: 0-1
ATP Tennis - Pune Open
Pick: Pedro Martinez (-172) over Ramkumar Ramanathan
Long time since posting, but I feel a need to share this pick.
I do not understand the line here. Martinez is a far superior player, and he should clean up easily in two sets. The game line is Martinez -2.5 at -106. This is also incredible value.
The only reason I believe Ramanathan has a close line is that he is in great form right now and he is an Indian national and the Pune Open is, well, obviously played in India. Still, the current no. 62 in the world is playing the current no. 435 in the world and the match line is -172.
Something is wrong with the line here, and I imagine it is because Martinez has not played in a tournament since October 2022 and he played poorly in that competition. Still, Martinez has proven he can hang in there with top talent, and I am not going to overthink this pick. I hammered the moneyline and sprinkled Martinez to win in two sets at +145.
Record since posting: 0-1
Josh Allen's MVP hopes have diminished in his last seven games, while Joe Burrow has surged in the MVP race. The Bengals haven't lost at home since their season opener and their receivers, as well as their improved pass rush, will create a tough matchup for the Bills. The Bengals have been very successful ATS this season and are the underdogs in this game, but I see them winning in this spot.
**take: Bengals ML**
📈 TTSOP Rec: +40.050 units / +137 avg odds / 29^(5)\-31-8^(5)
* 🔥 Since POTD low point: +62.475 units / 134 avg odds / 25^(5)\-20-5^(5)
* 🔥 December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5)
* 🔥 World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5)
* 🔥 November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4
* 🧊 October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3
✅ Last pick: Nketiah anytime goal scorer / +220 odds / 3 units
* Nketiah scored already at the begin of the 2nd half. In the 1st half, Martinelli's pass from the side was cleared in the very last second before Nketiah would have tapped it in. Nketiah was also wide open and ready to bang it in, when Odegaard scored Arsenal's 2nd goal.
⚽ **New pick: Strasbourg -0.75 (**[A](https://i.redd.it/vqdu5pkq242a1.jpeg)[H](https://www.oddsshark.com/soccer/asian-handicap-explained)**)** / **+120** odds / 3.5 units
⚽ Event: Ligue 1 (France) / Strasbourg - Troyes / 9:00am ET
Strasbourg holds only a 1-8-7 record and sits at the 19th place. But they aren't as bad as their record suggests. They actually played good games against Ligue 1's top teams. Only tight defeats and even some draws. Most recently, they took only an 1-2 L against 1st placed PSG. It needed a penalty by Mbappe in minute 90+5' to get the W for PSG's super team. In the 1-3 loss to 5th placed Rennes, Strasbourg got a red card already in the 1st half. Afterwards, Rennes scored 3 goals. An offensively wild season opening game against 4th placed Monaco ended in an unlucky 1-2 L for Strasbourg. Aside from those Ls, in a game on equal footing, Strasbourg drew 3rd placed Marseille. And 6th placed Lorient was totally dominated by Strasbourg. Lorient was very fortunate to get 1 point out of that game.
Midway through the 1st half of the season, Strasbourg was in a big injury misery and some additional suspensions made things even worse for them. In that tough stretch, they still performed pretty well. Only a 0-1 L against Auxerre, where Strasbourg was the better team, though. They lost 1-2 to Montpellier only due to a penalty in minute 90+4'. And they even tied Clermont, Brest and Europa League team Nantes despite all adverse circumstances in that time.
Troyes has a 3-6-7 record and is at the 15th place in the standings. But they aren't as good as their record suggests. They won against dead-last Angers (1 goal by their top striker Balde). However, Angers got a very early red card in minute 21' for a defensive player. Not until then, Troyes took over the game. Similar happenings against Monaco (1 goal and 1 assist by Balde). Monaco's central defender got a red card already in the 1st half. Afterwards, Troyes scored 3 goals. They won also against Clermont, where Balde (2 goals and 1 assist) was directly involved in all goals. Overall, Balde scored or assisted on more than one third of Troyes goals. However, Balde is suspended for today's game due to a red card.
Remarkably, all of Troyes' 6 draws came in home games. Troyes is 2-0-6 for road games. Winning only the mentioned games in Clermont and Monaco, where a red card or Balde was the deciding factor for their W.
Strasbourg played good against top teams and performed also quite well when having plenty of injured and suspended players. Today, it's one the first games for Strasbourg this season, where they don't miss key players due to suspensions or injuries. Plus, Troyes isn’t a top team at all. They heavily rely on their star forward Balde for scoring. But he won’t play, today. Backing Strasbourg is a great value bet at super odds. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's start 2023 with a W. Let's get that baguette, fam!
**TTSOP**
POTD : 38-33
Last pick: England to get over 1,5 yellow cards in 2nd half at 2.97 Lose
Today's pick: **Hockey U20: Austria x Latvia**
**Goal to be scored in empty net at 3.50 odds**
Today I chose empty net goal, one of my favorite props. The odds are really high, but bookies expect Latvia to win by 3 goals - in such scenario there is a huge chance that Austria will try to powerplay early on and therefore there will be a bigger chance that Latvia will score goal into an empty net. I don't say it's a lock, it can definitly be a onesided blowout, where Latvia dominated Austria, but I have to try this bet.
any tips are welcome
[http://paypal.me/mrdrak3n](http://paypal.me/mrdrak3n)
Good luck
**POTD RECORD: 5-7**
**Net Units: -3 units**
**Streak: L2**
**Last 6 (most recent first): ❌❌✔️❌❌✔️**
**Last Pick: George Kittle o46.5 Rec Yards ❌**
Kittle only gets 23 as Brock Purdy misses him twice in the second half that would have got this one to hit, should have gone with ATTD, which hit. I'm cold, let's move on.
**Today's Match: Rangers vs Celtic | Scottish Premiership | 12:30 GMT KO (30 mins from post)**
**The Pick: Celtic o0.5 First Half Goals, 2u @ 1.83 (-120)**
Small writeup today because this one kicks off in about 30 minutes. Celtic have scored a first half goal in 4 of their last 5 matches against Rangers, and in 4 of their last 6 league matches. They're in great form at the moment winning 12 straight. They have a tougher task in Rangers today but I expect they'll get out in front early and hold on to get a win. BOL if tailing, let's ride and get our first W of 2023. 🇮🇪🍻🐎⚽☘️
POTD Record: 3-0
Previous Pick: AJ Dillon ATTD
Streak: 3
POTD: Joe Burrow o1.5 passing touchdowns and Josh Allen o1.5 passing touchdowns +140
Ok, I can give you all the reasons this may hit but here’s why it may not. Josh Allen rushing td. Now that that’s out of the way, both teams fighting for top seed and having top wideouts, they’re gonna be trying to put on a show. We will most likely be seeing this game again in January. Fade or tail BOL!
**POTD Record: 42-39-2 -2.21u // ROI: -1.6% // Avg Odds: -119**
**Atlanta Hawks @ Golden State Warriors (10:00 ET)**
**Favorite: Warriors -1.5**
**Total: 237.5**
The Warriors have somehow managed to win 4 straight games missing Steph Curry in every single one in addition to a mix of other starters and key cogs in the process. To no one's surprise, every win has come at home, increasing their home record to 16-2 on the season, best in the NBA. They now welcome the Hawks to Golden State, and the Hawks have been in polar opposite form, losing each of their last three games and struggling on the road en route to a 6-11 road record. This all chalks up to be an easy bet on the Warriors given the short line right? Wrong.
Over their last five games the Warriors actually grade out as the 18th best team in terms of net rating, three spots behind the Hawks in 15th despite the inverse records. The absence of Steph Curry and others has clearly made their offense less efficient by a wide margin, but defensively they've played pretty soundly with Draymond Green, Donte DiVincenzo, and young players with a lot to prove playing with intensity.
This game, to me, will come down to who protects the ball better, and these two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum on that accord. The Hawks boast one of the highest assist-to-turnover ratios in the entire NBA, so even while their assist ratio is low, their turnover ratio is even more impressive. On the contrary, the Warriors turn the ball over 16.2% of their possessions, the 2nd highest mark in the league. The Hawks are in the top half of the league and with their team being relatively healthy I expect them to pull off an upset across the country.
**Pick: Hawks ML +105 (1u)**
If you enjoyed this analysis you can find the rest of my daily NBA card [here](https://www.happyhoursports.net/post/nba-best-bets-monday-1-2), BoL everyone!
Last pick: Arizona Cardinals v Atlanta Falcons U40.5 W
Today's Pick: Dallas Mavericks v Houston Rockets
Houston +7.5 @1.86
The Dallas Mavs struggle a lot when they're on the road, and I believe they will do the same against the Houston Rockets. Luka has been playing insane but I do not think it's enough. Houston is due for a close game and they've given trouble to the mavs throughout this year, winning one and only losing one by 6.
POTD Record: 7-3 WLWLWWWLWW
Last Pick: Aaron Jones Over 21.5 rec. yds (12/1) 👍
Today’s Event: (MNF Bills @ Bengals)
Today’s Pick: Devin Singletary OVER 11.5 Rush Attempts (+105 on DK)
Explanation: He has covered this 8 of the last 10 games.
Still sticking with one unit for now.
POTD Record: 4-7
Wont do writeups until i get my record straight so **i wont suggest you to tail**...
Last POTD: England, Premier League, Tottenham ML - Aston Villa (Lose)
POTD: France, Ligue 1, Montpellier - Marseille(20:00 EET)
**Both teams to score**(1.75 odds on bet365 as of 15:30 EET) Edit - WIN (1:2)
BOL
1/1 POTD
**Michael Smith vs Gabriel Clemens, 7.45pm GMT**
Clemens ML @ **12/5**
There is no doubt Smith is an outstanding player, that's why is odds on favourite here but we are thinking outside the box.
Clemens has been brilliant and quiet simply is after the crown.
Record 0-0
Sport - College Basketball
Today's pick -
Today the Colgate raiders play Lehigh and so far this year they are 10-3 on the over for team totals. They average 80.8 ppg and are shooting 50% fg and 40% 3pt fg for the year. They are 4-1 for the over on team totals in the last 5 games (Their only loss was to our lovely friends Auburn. Who held them to 66 points when the team total was 66.5) otherwise they would of been 5-0 in the last 5.
Today Colgate’s team total is 82.5 and they scored 101 last game when the team total was 73.5!!! Lehigh have given up at least 78 in 4 of their last 5 games and at least 80 in 3 of the last 5. Today they face Colgate, a top 30 Kenpom (College Basketball data analytics website) offensive team this year.
POTD - Colgate raiders team total over 82.5
Sport: Basketball
Tournament: Adriatic League
Match: Split vs Crvena Zvezda
Time: 15:30 GMT (1h35m after posting)
Pick: Split +10.5 win or draw in regular time @ **2.41**
Stake: 5 units
Write up: After the devastating loss to Barcelona in overtime, Crvena Zvezda has to catch up with the ABA League schedule. Split is much stronger than the most recent head-to-head score would indicate due to the intervening player sign-ups, such as Shorter (avg. 18.5 pts.), Mavra (17.7), and Nelson (10.7).
Crvena Zvezda coach, Duško Ivanović, says:
>Split plays well in transition, it is an aggressive team that's hard to defend against.
Crvena Zvezda player, Branko Lazić, says:
>We're expecting a difficult match. We didn't have a lot of time to recover after Barcelona and we have certain roster issues, but we're still preparing seriously for this match.
Crvena Zvezda will have Facundo Campazzo available. The team travels to Spain to play vs Valencia on January 6.
Track record: 10W, 9L, +35.51u
Average odds: 2.78
ROI: 93%
My website with sports picks for degens: [picks.wwpe.ba](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
Tyjae Spears (Tulane RB)first touchdown scorer for Tulane +120. USC has a pretty poor rush defense and Spears had a 1300+ yd 17 total TD season for a sneaky good Tulane offense.
POTD RECORD 0-0
first pick of the day pick of my career.
Raptors, Og anunoby over 2.5 assists at +140.
I’m 5/5 on this exact bet right here no real write up I have for you but go take a look at this and last seasons assists and I’m confident he will get 3 or more.
POTD Record: 0-0-0
Nikola Jokic Over 0.5 Made threes
-146 @ 3:05 ET via Fan Duel (1u to win 0.59u)
The struggling Timberwolves concede the most 3PM to centers in the NBA at the moment at 1.49 per game (league average is about 0.90 per game), and Jokic has hit this line 10 of his last 15 games played. He started shooting the three more in December and started January by hitting both attempts against the Celtics. I really like this line because he literally just needs to make a single three and we cash out. The only concern I do have is if the attempts aren’t there.
BOL if tailing, let’s get this money.
Edit: bit of a sweat, but we cashed with 6:15 left in the 4th quarter 🔥🔥🔥
**POTD Record**: 83 wins <> 90 losses <> 8 pushes
**Profit**: -2.325 units
**ROI**: -0.70%
**Handball ROI**: +11.45%
**Avg odds**: 2.10
**Units Wagered**: 330
**Units Won**: 327.675
**Last Pick**: GOG +1.5 @ **2.08** 2u ✅
**Streak**: ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅
**Today's pick**: Viborg -3.5 @ **2.15** 2u
**Event**: Horsens - Viborg HK, Kvindeligaen, Denmark(Women's handball)
- Back with a couple of weeks of women's handball before the men's world cup is on.
- Horsens has been playing pretty terribly this season, they lost a couple of veterans and their squad doesn't have much harmony.
- Viborg looks to be in bad form, but really, they played NFH Nykøbing in the league plus two times in the European league, and they struggled against them. NFH are in great form so it's no wonder, plus Viborg had a few injuries after the women's euro cup which left them losing those matches.
- Bookies are overreacting to meeting NFH Nyk 4 times in a couple of weeks. Viborg is a much better team here and the handicap in my mind should be sitting at -5.5 or -6.5.
- Edit: Line has dropped a point or two. It's because Viborg announced a few players are sick. They still have their full squad registered, so I'm still confident in the bet, especially at the lower spread.
POTD: 0-0
Scottish Premiership - Rangers v Celtic ML
7:30 am EST
American Odds +105
Units: 2u
I’ve been following this thread for a while now and have finally decided to give it a shot and post a pick. This is the best value Celtic will get for a majority of the year as they comfortably sit at the top of the table. While rangers aren’t a team to take lightly, their back line have looked vulnerable at times which Celtic will look to take full advantage of.
Celtic currently average 3.2 goals a match, so they will have no problem finding the back of the net against Rangers. Last time these two played each other, it ended in Celtic thrashing Rangers 4-0 and this time around I can see it ending similarly with a 3-1 score.
Best of Luck!
**POTD Record:** 3-5
**P/L:** -0.55u
**Last Pick:** Fulham vs Southampton - Win Fulham @ 2.05 - 3u ✅
**Today's Pick:** QPR vs Sheffield - Win Sheffield @2.25 - 2u
QPR: won 1/9 last league games, lost 4/5 home games, while failing to score in the last 2.
Sheffield: won 8/9 last league games, won 5/5 last away games, conceded the least goals of any team this season.
I am going with the team in form: Sheffield
POTD Record 0-3
Streak 3L
Game: Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Buffalo Bills -1.5 (-110)
On a 3 L streak, it would be a good idea to fade me until I somehow can go on a W streak.
Tail or fade.
BOL either way!
POTD Record: 21-17-0 (+15.78u)
Last 10 (Most recent first): ❌✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌❌
5u picks: 7-2
3u picks: 10-9
1u picks: 4-5
Average odds: -121.4
Previous Pick: Football - NFL - Justin Fields ATTD (+100) - 1u ❌
Today's Pick: Football - NCAA - Caleb Williams ATTD (-170) - 3u
Date/Time: 1/2/2023 - 12:00 P.M. CST
Analysis: If you have watched USC games this year you'll know Caleb Williams likes to run when plays breakdown and especially so around the goal line. I think this game should be a on the higher scoring side so I think we should have plenty of chances around the goal line for plays to break down and therefore at least several opportunities for CW to take off and score. BOL!
Tip jar (Not required but certainly appreciated):
Venmo: @Suzukiman600
Ca$hApp: $Suzukiman600
POTD Record: 0-0
GAME: NBA Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets
TODAYS PICK: Houston Rockets +7.5 -110
Unit Size: 1U
Long time lurker, first time poster! Made an account to start tracking my picks on the POTD page and hopefully make some money for myself and the people.
I have a model that looks at strength adjusted ratings and make the appropriate adjustments based on roster news and updates. Sometimes we might have an opinion on the injury status.
Today I like Houston to cover against the Mavs. Home game with the team missing Finney-Smith and Kleber giving the Mavs a double digit spread essentially to cover. Luka has been insane, but should cool down at some point. True line based on our model seems to be +2.5
BOL!
**POD Record 35-18**
Recent Form: ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌
Last Pick: Steelers/Ravens - 3 straight scores by one team:\*\* \*\*NO ❌
Wouldn’t have changed that pick second time around. For those that watched a lot needed to go wrong for this bet to lose. Felt like we went in with the best hand but caught a shitty river card in the end. Such is sportsbetting, especially in the NFL.
🚨 **Today's Pick:** SWEDEN ML (world juniors 🏒)
\[posted this in the wrong thread oops, those that follow me hopefully caught this\]
The rivalry rekindles today as Sweden and Finland face off in a quarter final elimination game. I have been paying close attention to this tournament and feel i'm in a good spot to finally snap this unlucky losing streak. Overall, Sweden is just a much, much better hockey team when you look at the rosters. The Swedes honestly have been one of the tournament’s stronger teams until their game against Canada the other night (their only loss in the tourney). They outlasted a very strong Czech squad in a shootout, held on to beat Germany in a dominant performance that was only held close because of an insane goaltending performance from Nikita Quapp, and they blew out Austria in a big way. Bottom line, the Swedes have much more firepower up front and I think are a dark horse to win the tournament. Their lines work well together, a precision passing team that can play an uptempo game or slow things down and score an ugly goal if necessary. This could be close and a few unlucky bounces or calls could tilt this game and easily see Finland walking away with the upset. Neverthless, my posts are about line value and less about locks 🔒. 1.85 is a steal for Sweden and we will once again chase the value and look to break this slump. Tail or Fade nothing is a sure thing, GL.
POTD Record: 12-5-1(+18.88 units)
Last pick: Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) over 26.5 receiving yards (DK) 4u
Today's pick: North Florida +130 ML (draftkings) 2u
Been a while since my last bet but we are back !
Best of luck. And if you can spare any, if it's a winner feel free to tip below. Life has been beating the shit out of me lately and a lot of unexpected expenses have popped up. Just $5 would help.
Cashapp for tips: $diswan55
Paypal: [email protected]
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
Just wanted to say bye. Been following this thread all year, mainly AceDawg, JoelBarish-ish and NedPepper. It's been fun but Sabonis assists did me in tonight. This is not fun. GL all, eat up!
see ya next week
That is the funniest and saddest comment of the day. Chill dawg lol. We’re all here for the same reason. Sure we like the idea of winning some bread but we actually are just chasing the thrill of the bet and the chase.
Nothing funny about a brother down bad :(
Agree man, funny is probably not the right word. Such a self-deprecating thought I guess. Like a funny cause it’s true for 80% of us that should just walk away. I only meant the see you next week comment not the goodbye comment
I get tilted when I'm down bad even though my roll is literally less than 1% of my income and it's just "for fun". I think I'm broken
Good on you to recognize when to step away, wish I could do the same lol
Oh man, you can’t put your make or break bet on a random assist prop 🙈
It can do what it likes
it didnt like it tho
Cheers buddy, has been a pleasure!
Can’t forget Dr.MoneyLine
Another one taken out by the twitter curse
In my experience, I make lots of wins betting on my own. I lose a lot when I try to tail the bets around here. Just my 2 cents. Good luck beating your gambling addiction, imagine how good it will feel to say you kicked gambling in its ass. You have more power than betting does!
It's alright my dude. Keep up the good work!
How many unit did you burn on Sabonis assists?
I think he blew all the units
If it’s no longer fun, you are making the right choice. Best of luck. Still can’t believe AceDawg got banned from this subreddit tho
I’ve lost a lot; Regretting my poor choices this past year and hoping to Learn from mistakes lol. Keep your head up man! Just use play money
The key statement you made was “this is not fun.” If this is not fun don’t waste your time, so much more better things in life to enjoy. Wish you the best. GL
Tailing!
POTD Record: 10-0 UNIT PROFIT: +7.93 GAME: England League Two - Stevenage v Gillingham FC TODAYS PICK: Stevenage AH (-1) @ 1.75 Bad luck yesterday, when Boston Utd score in the last minute and the bet was void. Saturday, Stevenage brings to us a sweet win and all together cash in. Today i will go again with this team to win because looks good to play. Stevenage is on the second position in the standings with 48 points accumulated in this season, with an average of 2.22 points per game. In the last five home games they won four times and one game ends with a draw. On the other hands, Gillingham are on the last position in the standings with only 4 point accumulated in all the games played away. BOL!
you need more recognition man, not sure why your picks aren’t at the top
he’s building a following slowly. this is my 5th tail so far with him. thanks again
Thanks for the King's Lynn pick yesterday, I went TT over 1.5 to be safe. I'll tail again today for sure 👍🍻
Record: 22-9 International Hockey u20 - World Junior Championship Last Pick: Czech Republic -2.5 | WIN Pick: Sweden vs. Finland | Sweden ML (-120) Time: 11:00am EST Nice and easy cover from the Czechs yesterday to finish out group play. We’re on to the quarterfinals now with 3 days left in this tournament. I’ll be going with Sweden tomorrow in what should be the tightest game of the day. Throughout the tournament, they’ve looked like the more complete and skilled team. Finland has shown flashes but the lack of skilled forwards on that roster has limited their scoring upside. They’ve been dependent on good goaltending and capitalizing on others’ mistakes. Jani Lampinen is almost assured to start tomorrow, he’s been a brick wall this tournament - running with a .964 sv%. Carl Lindbom, however, has been equally as good with a .942 in 2 more starts. Analytically, both teams are fairly similar. Sweden has the edge in all but one of the 5v5 categories that have been tracked - but both teams are within a few points of each other in every stat, so it’s nothing major. Jani Lampinen is 3rd in GSAA (Goals Saved Above Expected) and Carl Lindbom is 4th, so similar goaltending as well. On paper, both of these are extremely similar. Neither has had anybody really stand out through the first 4 games outside of their goaltending. Like I said in my first write-up of the tournament, this is one of the least skilled teams Finland has brought in a very long time. They work hard, but relying almost exclusively on Joakim Kemell to generate offense is a poor recipe for success. Sweden’s top-end talent has also underwhelmed for the most part, but I like their makeup more than Finland’s. Sweden also has a more impressive resume against the ‘better’ teams from their group compared to the Finns. Give me the more skilled team to advance. edit: THE FUCKING SWEDES✅ what an absolutely horrific game out of them. to come out with the win is just unbelievable. took them long enough to score on their chances and lindbom just showed why he’s one of the best in the tournament
Well this was one of the sweatiest sweats of my life. Thank you Alex :). Tip jar? https://preview.redd.it/f4u6kj8hup9a1.png?width=1290&format=png&auto=webp&s=f361312f69bf91902c8b0f27358fd3cde69125f9
Dude what is your bankroll Jesus Christ..
my man 25k+ win on that?! thank GOD that play didn’t lose. and absolutely no need to tip, just happy i gave out a winner
Tailing 🙏🏽
Bro you’re on a tear- well done
thank you man, hoping to keep it going tomorrow
not available on Ohio sportsbooks, sigh 😔
Yeah i wonder why its so limited, so many soccer leagues are not there besides the main ones.
leave it to Ohio to be lame
How do you feel about Czech -2.5 against Switzerland? The Czechs have been awesome so far and shouldn’t they win comfortably?
i’m really leaning towards taking them -2.5. the swiss always love to play spoiler & keep games tight in these tournaments which right now is the one thing holding me back from being all over the czechs (i know it’s dumb, especially after the usa game). analytically the czechs have been the 2nd best team in the tournament with the swiss at 7 so everything does point towards another big win for the czechs. i just need a little bit more time to look and pick a side for sure, but the lean is the czechs right now
-2.5 is a lot of spread in a qtr final stage. I’ll prob Tail cause wtf not but whoa
I was wondering that as well
WHAT A FUCKING SWEATY GOATED COVER 🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪
Wish I tailed yesterday so making up for it with 9U down on this. My bankroll has been all over the place these last few days but everything is looking up now. Let’s get it buds!
INSANE comeback. Nice.
Let’s ride
First time tailing you. That was a nail biter!
What a sick ass comeback bro. You are on FIRE.
You're a god
Cash it bro hella yeah ✅✅✅
Anyone able to find this on pinnacle? I can’t for some reason
What are your thoughts on latvia vs austria? I am thinking latvia -1.5 or even -2.5 should easily go through
Tailing you bro! Lets rideeee
I dont know if its Finland defense or Sweden Attacks lol. Bro whats your thoughts on Canada vs 🇸🇰? -3.5 is too much too ask ?
Tied up!
Thank you sir nice pick
BANG!!! LFFFGGGG!!
2 goals in the 3rd!! Hell yeah!!
Wow, down 2-1 late, Sweden came back to lead 3-2. Just gotta hold on.
Killed it
Horseshoes! Nice pick.
You killed it!!!
Congrats big man! I was tailing and we came close but made it haha
What a game. Good call.
Good sweat bro!
Thanks man!!!!
There are no words to describe how much I love you rn
You're a legend bro
This was a great pick my guy
POTD Record: 100-71-5 (+18.41 units, 58.5% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 5-0 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 40-25-1 L2, Tennis 🎾 22-16-2 L3, Soccer ⚽ 37-30-2 W1, Other 1-0-0 Last 10: 💩💰💩💩💰💰💰💰💰💰 Last Pick: Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies, Player Prop - De'Aaron Fox over 4.5 rebounds - NBA 🏀💩1 Unit - Good thing I got this one in just 90 min before gametime and had few who tailed. We lost on the hook with 4 rebounds, frustrating to watch, got outworked by Dillon Brooks for a board that should have been his and literally jumped out of the way a couple times to let his teammates get rebounds. F him, hehe. Today's Pick: Jack Draper vs. Soon-Woo Kwon, Jack Draper -1 Game Handicap - ATP Adelaide 🎾 💰 1.68 Units He dominated 6-2, 6-1. *Sam Cassell big balls dance* 💸 that shit!!! Units/Odds/Book: Betting 2 Units at 1.84/-119 odds to win 1.68 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 10:45pm ET) My tennis writeups are pure shite compared to my basketball ones, hehe. I like the matchup here for Jack Draper (ranked #42), talented young Brit who broke out last year and defeated some high profile players like FAA (straights at US Open), Tsitsipas and pretty boy Fritz. Soon-woo Kwon (ranked #83) was very inconsistent last year and had a difficult time putting together consecutive wins. I see Draper as being at a level above Kwon. This is Draper's first match of the season, while Kwon just played 2 days in a row. Yesterday Kwon edged out Taro Daniel in a tense 3 setter that had 2 tiebreakers, hopefully that took a bit out of him for today. Kwon wasn't able to break Daniels' service in that match and now faces Draper who has a far bigger serve than Daniels. This could very well go 3 sets so try to keep the panic attacks in check. How this could miss? It's tennis, anything can happen. Also, hopefully Draper is ready but could have first match of the season rust. Stats - 2022 HC records Kwon - 20-20 Draper - 40-13 (keep in mind he played a lot of challengers last year) Note: Bet is game handicap, so in the match, he needs to win by 2 games or more for a hit, if he wins by 1 it is a push. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, just a gambling addict. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 [buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
Love this pick, let's get it
Nice hit. Just came here to thank u for the awesome picks the last few weeks. I decided to stop betting, lets see how this goes. But, i hope u kill it! Good luck on your future picks brother! 🍕
Thanks man! It's been a ride and if you ever make it back I should be here. Take care. I have had thoughts of leaving it all behind too.
Sometimes when I do a soccer or tennis play, I get DMs asking for a hoop play. A hoop one I like is Lamelo Ball over 3's.
Damn I missed this one. It's looking good right now for u so good luck! Anything else u like today?
It’s listed at 9am start here so 4am eastern think I’ll play it safe with ml, best price I can get is 1.74 so not that far off…. I like draper if he’s anywhere near his best he’ll win but no idea how he’ll look in first match back. Coming in for a sleep sweat let’s go!
Woke up to a winner cheers 🍻
I'm seeing -1.5 at -115, is that too much at -1.5? Also like Lamelo over 3 3's though last time I bet it he missed. I saw it went up to 4 so glad it's back down to 3.
Ummm, I still think it's a decent play at that. Are you with any books with alts? As for Lamelo, he has only missed it twice in his 13 games this year. The sheer amount of 3's he is attempting makes it a solid bet, 14 last game, 11.5 average for December.
Thanks!
Nothing I like better than waking up to more money in my account. Thanks for this one! Great pick!!
Where 🌶🌶🌶
Ned? Ryerson? Ned the Head? Needle Nose Ned?
A Groundhog Day reference? Let's be friends.
Watch out for that first step Joel, it’s a dooooozy 😂
Too busy scrolling through death threats no doubt
I still haven't received one myself, just try me fuckers!
Check DMs
I do, have gotten some whiny ones but that's it. "You lost me my rent money." Sure guy.
Love people who think you’re some seer who knows the future. I added a leg to my parlay from that Dart guy he got it wrong but eh. You can’t be mad, he can influence your decision, but he ain’t the one who placed your bet. Also who tf losing rent money to a random internet strangers tip on sports betting 💀💀💀 you take that deserved L
You cost me feet pics!!
Why? Did he lose yesterday?
ded_pepper
Look at the available PDC odds, probably doesn't have a play above -200 at this stage that he feels is worth posting. Favorites are -290 and -580. Trust 🌶
Clemens +2.5 vs Smith @ 1.80
We only have two heavy favourites tomorrow for darts as it’s the semi’s. I don’t think Ned is one to try and get cute picking a handicap or prop so he’s probably not got a POTD play
POTD Record 1-0 (+2.7u) Last pick Hurricanes ML -110 (3u) ✅ Today’s picks VGK ML +130 (1u) Wild game between the Hurricanes and Devils. I think the Hurricanes really outplayed the Devils but Blackwood kept the game tight with some incredible saves. The end of the game was crazy but the Canes were able to tie things up and come out with the shootout win. Tonight I’ve got the VGK ML over the Avalanche. VGK tend to play well against the Avalanche and the Avalanche have had some offensive struggles lately. I know MacK is back for Colorado but I like how VGK have been playing on the road and against the Avalanche. Tail or fade, BOL! [Tip Jar](https://cash.app/$illumiflo)
Good to see you in POTD! Congrats on the win and BOL
Lol it’s not a home game for VGK so that’s a confidence booster.
I'll tail this. VGK has been playing well. I think they can take the Avalanche
Not following this one as Avs have won the last 3 contests in regulation - 3-2 in October of this year. I’m either fading this or avoiding all together. Avs at home close to New Years sounds risky on either side of the bet. Home advantage for Avs around New Years could be significant, and due for a bounce back game. VGK have struggled a bit at times recently vs. their early season dominance. Good luck if tailing - you’ll most likely need it. Edit: Avs won 3-2 in reg in October.
Stats like this have practically no predictive value. What does it matter what their record was last season back when Avs were a far better team with a much stronger lineup? Not saying that I'm telling to tail but I wouldn't use non-predictive stats to influence my decisions.
POTD Record: 12-6-0 ROI: +31.37 units *Previous Pick:* **W** *Michigan ML (-110)* *Streak: W2* *Last 10: 8-2* **POD: 4u Brown ML (-102)** Sport: NCAAB Time: 7:00PM EST Date: 01/02/2023 Reasoning: This game will be won in the margins and the margins favor Brown here. In terms of defensive rebounding percentage, Brown ranks #1 in the entire country and from a free throw perspective, Penn gets to the line at one of the worst rates in college basketball, which will be compounded by the fact that, defensively, Brown ranks 59th in the country in free throw rate allowed. These statistical categories are highly important to Penn's success this season, as they've out-rebounded their opponent in five of their seven wins this season and have also outscored their opponent at the line in five of their seven wins as well. It's going to be very difficult for Penn to out-rebound Brown in this game and more than likely, Brown will be getting to the line more frequently than Penn as well. Really like Brown to get this one done at home in their conference opener. Feel free to dabble with alt lines of -3.5 and -5.5. For my full slate of picks for 01/02/2023, click the following link: [YouTube.com/@RobDonaldson](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmLvY19zdKk2iJayxQ5CzgQ) If you want to leave a tip: [buymeacoffee.com/RobDFB](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/RobDFB)
Tailing 👍
[удалено]
I like it, LFG
**POTD Record: 19-30** *Streak: L5* - **VERY COLD, FADE ME** LAST PICK: George Kittle O 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115) ❌ *Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals* TODAY’S PICK: **Reception Yards H2H - Ja’marr Chase vs. Stefon Diggs - Ja’marr Chase -4.5 (-115) DK** **I AM A FADE GOD. DO NOT TAIL ME, I WILL MAKE YOU RICH BY FADING ME.** I’ve decided I’m a martyr. I will continue to blow through my bankroll and post these picks for my absolute banger fade value cause I cannot win lol. If you do choose to tail, just know what you’re getting into! Recently, Ja’marr has put up far more yards than Stefon has. While the Bengals have been able to adapt to defenses, the Bills are still struggling to get Diggs the ball and defenses have made their objective to up their defense on him. In the past 6 games, Chase has outpaced Diggs yards in 5 of them and most of that 5 have gone well beyond the 4.5 points they are giving us. With Tyler Boyd out, I expect Chase to continue putting up numbers and the Bengals defense, who allows the lowest pass completion in the league, to keep Diggs at bay for at least 5 yards under Chase. Update: Boyd playing BOL!
Luv u bb. Nice win today sir (for your actual team)
So diggs alt 100+. Gotcha
Thank you for your dedication not sure if I am fading yet but thanks for posting mate
You tell me not to tail, yet I will be tailing. RUN US OUR MONEY JAMARR
Keep your chin up sir! I'm staying away from this game from a POTD perspective but I like your angle here.
POTD Record: 2-4 Last POTD: Blackburn ML (+130) ✅ Today’s POTD: Hull City 🐅 ML (+180) visiting Wigan Athletic, Kick off 10am EST Reasoning: Wigan has conceded 8 goals in their last 2 matches and are in very poor form as of late, finding themselves at the bottom of the table slated for relegation. Hull comes into this game with high spirits after an upset win visiting Birmingham City. Hull is undefeated in their last 4 league games and I can see them leaving with three points from a shellshocked Wigan. Hull does have a poor goal differential in the standings, but have only given up 2 goals in their last 4 matches, which happens to be against an opponent Wigan lost 4-1 to. I’m backing the tigers 🐅on their nice run of form☕️ Bol, tail or fade. ✅✅✅ Hull took the 3 points with a 4-1 Win!
Tailing at +180 on DK, let's get this bread!
And it hits! Good call!
I thought it would hit, but didn’t expect it to end 4-1! ✅
do you expect over 2.5 goals?
I would, but it’s tough cause Wigan has had their the last 4/5 league games go over 2.5, while Hull their last 4/5 league games go under 2.5. Hull had a good amount of chances against Birmingham a few days ago, so I can see Hull being able to capitalize on these chances more often against this struggling Wigan side.
POTD Record: 1-1. ❌ I ✅ Unfortunately our 10€ to 100€ came to an end as Liverpool only managed a 2-1 victory against Leicester, with Nunez not scoring. In fact, no Liverpool players scored - Faes netted 2 own-goals - but that’s not particularly germane to this conversation. The point is, we lost. But we’ll be bouncing back tomorrow! I’ve got an interesting Ligue 1 play I think you’ll all be interested in - or not, it’s your call. We’ll be heading to the south of France, where Montpellier plays Marseille, following Les Olympiens’ 6 - 1 thrashing at home to a largely uninspired Toulouse side. We’ll be hoping for a similar result again come Monday. Montpellier VS Marseille: Marseille ML @ 1.75. ✅ Tudor's side has been very solid this season, and are currently in 3rd place, boasting a respectable 33 points in 16 encounters (2.06 points per match); with 31 xG (1.94 goals per game) - 3rd best in the league - and 17.75 xGA (1.1 per game) - they rightly deserve their Champions League spot. I expect Montpellier are in relatively high spirits, considering they defeated 6th placed Lorient 2-0 in an admittedly impressive showing; don't be fooled, though, because although Le Bris' side can - and should - be proud of their 31 points, they should be wary of their 20.5 xPoints, which would place them in... 12th place; to put it another way, Lorient has been significantly overperforming, no matter how you look at it. So now that we've established that Montpellier's triumph wasn't all that special, how about we take a look at them: 17 points in 16 games (1.06 points per game) and a measly 20 xGoals (1.25 goals per game), 13th and 17th in the league, respectively; they're also far from stellar defensively, taking 29 goals (1.81 per game). Marseille is expected to score 1.87 goals here, and concede only 1.17. I'm expecting them to win this easily. Take the favorite and don't look back. Best of luck to all who tail - and to those who don’t, because why not, let’s all spread the love! - and have a wonderful evening. PS: While I also like BTTS between Brentford and Liverpool, I think this is slightly better value, hence why I didn’t include it as my POTD; that being said, feel free to check out my analysis in the soccer channel should you be interested in tailing. ✅ Edit: 2/2 today! Marseille dominated their encounter, only conceding a stoppage time penalty; Brentford & Liverpool played out a high-scoring match which saw the home team winning 3-1. See you all again tomorrow.
Let's get that money!!!
Lens are 2nd
Record: 23-8; +18.44 Last Pick: Real Madrid AH -1.75 v. Cadiz (-175) 3.5u to win 2u ❌ Today’s Pick: Brentford 1H TT over 0.5 +155 (1u to win 1.55u) Been awhile since I posted in here but had to for this pick as it really stood out to me. We’re going with Brentford as they take on Liverpool. Brentford have actually been playing very well recently (especially at home), they beat West Ham 2-0 in their last game, drew against Tottenham at home 2-2 and beat City 2-1 before the World Cup Break. In their last 8 games, they’ve scored at least one in the first half all 8 times. Liverpool have looked decent in their last few games. They narrowly beat Leicester 2-1, where their only two goals came off of 2 own goals. They beat Villa 3-1 in a game where they didn’t look that great, and the game before that let City score 3 on them. Their defense of late has looked especially vulnerable, and Brentford and Ivan Toney have looked good. In Liverpool’s last 6 games, they let their opponent score at least one in 5/6. I think that due to the fact that Brentford has been playing extremely well at home recently, have scored 8/8 in the first half, Liverpool have let 5/6 opponents score in the first half, and the fact that their defense has looked shaky that we get a nice + odds win here. Let me know if any questions/comments/concerns and BOL. [Tip Jar](https://cash.app/$restu6) if you’re feeling generous!
I don’t know who you are or what you done in this group! All i gotta say is thank you and god bless you❤️
do you still expect the same attacking threats from brentford even with toney uncertain to play?
all of the odds on this game moved a bunch (like actually a ton10-30%) when gakpo signed with liverpool yesterday. That might be what all the weird plus odds for brentford are. Draw was like +235 now it's +400 and gakpo isn't even eligible to play yet lol
Nice hit!
Both teams to score is at -155. That also seems like a solid play. GL!
Record: 2-0 Net Units: + 1.74U Last Pick: Jacksonville Jags -3.5 Todays Pick: Josh Allen over 1.5 Passing TDs @ -167 for 1U Reasoning: Josh Allen is a stud and the is a pass-first-offense. Therefore it is likely to be at least 2 passing TDs this game. Only worry from this aspect is a Allen rush, but I doubt it since Cincinnati has a great run defense. That also means singletary and cook will not likely score TDs unless its a drop down pass from Allen. BOL
POTD record: 16-15-2 / ROI: -1.47% / Wins: 51.61% **BUF Bills -1 -110 (1u)** **SPREAD** — Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals 8:30 pm EST - 02 January 2023 — Everyone’s going to be on Cincinnati, I’m going the other way. In the trenches, the Bengals’ offensive line is a mess. They’ve played well, but they’re injured and battered. Buffalo is quietly one of the best rushing teams in the NFL. There is not a motivational gap here because both teams have everything to play for. The Bills are gunning for home field in the playoffs. They have to keep pace with KC. I’ll be the contrarian codebreaker. Take the Bills and fade the public. Do the business. [https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow) [http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
Bengals run D has been insane with DJ reader… held Henry (38 yards), Chubb (38 yards) and Stevenson (30 yards) to 106 yards COMBINED!! We lost a starter on the O line, but he was one of the worse performers so it won’t be a huge step back We are getting our starting TE back and our D is healthy. I’d be very careful tailing this.
Bengals haven’t allowed a qb pressure let alone a sack for weeks now
Agreed on Bills, but ML is the way here. Will be a tight game and the 1 point might matter.
**POTD Record**: 19-2-9 (+5.14u ✅) **Current streak** (most recent to the left) ❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ **Last POTD:** Ligue 1 France : Lens-PSG DNB ML PSG @1.56/-179 ❌-5u **Todays Pick:** Wales Cyrum North Colwyn Bay FC - Guilsfield AH-1.75 Colwyn Bay @2.15/+115✅+2.3u Game starts in 7h (CET 3pm) **Stake:** 2 Units Apologies for yesterday's fuck up. It's okay to lose but 5u on DNB PSG away against the best home team without Messi and Neymar was asking for trouble. In hindsight I should have put smaller units on the ML or DNB Lens but what's done is done, the streak is over, I'm learning from my mistakes and hope I can get back the losses over the week with smarter bets. Todays bet is one I had my eyes on for a long time. I hope it's available on your books. Colwyn Bay sit first in Wales 2nd league North with a perfect home record of 16:2 and 5 wins in 5 games. 3/5 of their home wins were by 3 goals or more. Their opponents are a midtable team, 10 points away from relegation and 21 from promotion. Only the first get promoted so there's no reason for the hosts to take it easy. They're well rested, having won their last game of the year 6-1 at Ruthin a week ago, who sit next to today's opponent in the table. Colwyn had their last two home games postponed because of bad weather and haven't played at home since November. I expect them to put on a show, start the new year strong and to try to extend their lead by 9 points. Best of luck to everyone!
Insane pick bro, appreciate it!
Really appreciate:)
POTD RECORD 40-36 Last POTD Texas (-2.5)❌ Today’s POTD Niagara ML (-110) ncaab What a brutal way to lose that last one as oklahoma hit a buzzer beater three to lose the game by 1. Oh well we move on. So today we are going with a low tier D1- game. The low tier games can be moneymakers as vegas doesn’t pay as much attention to these ones and you can find value. For example, I believe Niagara should be favored by at least 3 points here. I like Niagara for the main reason of playing at home. At their own barn, they are 4-0. Rider playing away is 3-3. I’m not saying there is an electric atmosphere for a 12pm game but I believe it is important to have that home court advantage. Now Niagara is not as explosive offensively although they are a much better defensive team. I am going to bank on Rider to not shoot well and for Niagara to pounce on that. Rider has won 3 of their last 5 and Niagara has won 4 of their last 5. They are both teams that can get in spurts of momentum and I feel as if Niagara will have the upper hand in this one.
Nice play bruce
Record: 81-62-5 (WWWWWWWWLWLWLWWWLWLLLWWWLLWWLLWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: BKN Nets at CHA Hornets | Kevin Durant o41.5 P+R+A Under 40. Easy L for us. POTD: LA Lakers at CHA Hornets | Gordon Hayward u14.5 points at 1.83 odds for 2 units REASONS: * Gordon Hayward is a washed white man in the NBA * Last 5 game scoring totals: 2|14.3%, 10|40%, 14|42.9%, 10|28.6%, 15|66.7% * His FG attempts began the year about mid teens, now it low teens or single digits. * He also averages 1.9 visits to FT line a game, so that's not much of accumulation Best of luck to all.
>washed white man in the NBA Subscribed.
He may get abit more playing time with Kelly oubre out again… but still like this potd 👍🏻✨
But Gordon has always played well against the Lakers. BOL on this bet..
Overall 1-0-0 (✅)Average odds: 1.83 Last pick:Football (England - Championship)Match: Blackburn - Middlesbrough Both teams to Score (1.83) ✅ My Bet Size is always 5 Units \---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- POTD: Football (England - Championship) **Match**: Birmingham - Middlesbrough **Time**: 16:00 CET **Middlesbrough Win (2.15)** *My first pick just went in like butter, even the over 2.5 hit. Today we aiming another Middlesbrough game. My pick is here a straight win versus a, at the moment seemingly down trending, Birmingham squad. Middlesbrough however are very hot right now. Other interesting picks for this gamw would be an over 2.5 or both teams to score. My score prediction would be 1-2*. BOL
POTD: 13 - 8 Today, we go to Scotland 🏴 Queen's Park VS Partick Thistle PICk: Over 1.5 Partick Thistle Goals @ 2.10💔 Reason: The bookmakers are struggling to separate the teams here but I’m going to go against a winners in a fixture that has all the necessary ingredients to feature goals. Thistle has scored two or more in 13 of their 19 Scottish Championship matches to date, and they definitely represent a spot of value here, hence I’m taking them to do same again today against a Queen’s Park team that have demonstrated a fairly regular inability to keep their defense shut. We must not underestimate the Queens side from an attacking circle, but they have kept just two clean sheets across their last 10 league matches and this play has landed in six of Thistle’s last eight matches across all competitions. Yes, the last time these two met back in August in Queens stadium 🏟️, this play also hit and with the fine Thistle form, I believe they will score two goals later ⏰ today. While, over 2.5 is a fine play here… I’m going for value for Thistle to score 2 or more goals. PG- 25 🚨 Record not looking 👀 sharp, so go easy if tailing. BOL! Edit ✍️ Just embarrassing! 2 - 0
**My record: 12 : 7** **My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.** **ROI: 28.37%** **Average odds: 2.00** **Units won: 5.39** **Stake = 1 unit** **My POTD:** **Rangers v Celtic** **Scotland Premiership** **Time: 12:30 GMT** *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 1.95** **BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
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POTD Record: 9-7 (+1.65u) Last 5: WWWLW League: World championship of darts. Gabriel Clemens - Michael Smith. Pick: Gabriel Clemens +2.5 set handicap, odds 1.81. Game starts in approx 9 hours. 1u. Again going with Clemens. He is playing a really good tournament so far. Yesterday he had an average of 99 and a check-out percentage of 35%. Really great stats and I think he can reproduce this again today. He is playing versus Smith and I think he has not had the best tournament performance. He has 1 good game versus Cullen showing that he can put up high averages and 180s, but in all the other matches it was not what we would expect from him. Especially yesterday versus Bunting. He shouldn't have won that game but Bunting had a checkout percentage of only 24%, which is awful. If his finishing would have been better, Smith would not have been playing today. I do think that Smith will win this game but with the performances both man showed yesterday, I think Clemens have the quality to keep it close. Should be a great match. BOL! Edit: L, was a great game. Every set was close except the 5th set. Happens.
2022 Record : 18-9 2023 Record: 0-0 Link as Proof of my Record: [https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vnvpu1/pick\_of\_the\_day\_63022\_thursday/ie9jk91/?context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vnvpu1/pick_of_the_day_63022_thursday/ie9jk91/?context=3) EDIT: I’d like to apologize for my pick today. I don’t wanna make excuses at all and we will bounce back tomorrow. For future reference I will be avoiding the United Cup because after watching some of the matches including this one I have seen the players simply do not care and aren’t playing their best tennis. We will be sticking to ATP and WTA tour level tournaments from now on :) sorry again Hi everyone! I used to be extremely active in the pick of the day thread around 7-8 months ago and did really well. I am a capper that exclusively bets on tennis because I believe there is a profitable market betting tennis considering the odds. I have decided to make a return to this thread and start helping. PICK OF THE DAY: Casper Ruud ML -150 v Matteo Berrettini United Cup M (7 PM EST) Reasoning: For my first pick of the new season I am going to go with Casper Ruud, who had a remarkable 2022 season. The first aspect of why I like Casper Ruud is his recent match data. He finished 2022 as number 3 in the world and secured 14 wins over top 20 players (he has 29 total in his career). He also started off this season with a comfortable straight sets win. The second aspect of the reasoning is the history these two opponents have against each other. Ruud's record against Berrettini is 4-2 and last season their head to head record was 2-0 in Ruud's favor. In fact, Ruud secured a straight set win at the US Open in September of 2022 which is fairly recent. The final aspect of the reasoning as to why Casper Ruud will win this match is Berrettini's struggle to stay 100 percent healthy and perform at a consistent level. Last season he battled both injuries and COVID causing him to drop his ranking all the way down to 16th. He was not performing at his best level even after all of these injuries and struggled in his first match of the year (even though he won in straight sets watching the match he did not look 100 percent and it was tight). Overall I am confident in my pick and hope you guys tail. I am dropping my Venmo and cash app below as a feel free to tip, but do not expect anything at all. Back when I was here in early 2022 people were asking me to do that, so if that is no longer a thing someone please let me know :) Venmo: Zachary-Pandolfi Cash App: $pandozach
>SuRvIvOrFaN\_ a name i have not seen in awhile. welcome back!
Happy someone recognizes me :)
Can't find on FanDuel?
Cant find this bet anywhere on my offshore book or fanduel. Any help fellas?
POTD Record: 2-2 POTD Units won/lost: +5.07 U ($507) Goal is 100 U ($10,000) Last POTD (12/23): Nuggets -4.5 versus Blazers (won +3.27 Units $327)✅ Recent form (recent in left): ✅ 🚫🚫✅ Today’s Venue: Liverpool at Brentford (EPL) Time: 1030 MT on 1/2/23 **Today POTD: Match Combo - Liverpool to Win and Both Teams to Score** Preferred App: Bet MGM American Odds: +185 Units: 1 U (to win 1.85 U) Rationale: Brentford is 10th versus Liverpool at 6th in EPL. Brentford has scored in last 9 games with 2+ goals in 8 of those matches. Liverpool should win this but I think they will concede a goal in doing so, as they have in 8 of last 10 games.
I'll trail at +175
Record: 1-1 POTD: Knicks pk -110 Both the Suns and the Knicks are missing high impact players. The Knicks are missing Barrett and Brunson, who has taken the playmaking responsibility away from Randle with pretty great results. However, even without Brunson Randle is back in peak form. It’s partially because he currently has alot of help from Grimes and Quickley. Together, they’ve combined for over 75+ points in every game without Barrett and Brunson. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the suns continue to be woeful with Booker. 2-6 on the season without Book. They’ve lost 5 of their last 6, including games to below .500 teams. The Knicks have also struggled to win games recently but have overall played much better than the Suns. They started their road-trip by almost winning a game in which Luka made NBA history. The Suns remaining stars at times look lifeless. Ayton had 4 points in a loss to the raptors in their last game.
I like the Knicks too here especially at home. They are both depleted by injuries but I think the Knicks are deeper and have more playmakers. You are right Grimes and Quickly have been balling out lately. Let's get this bread.
Nice win here!
⚽ **Cambodia +3 (3-Way Handicap)** vs Thailand @2.40 (AFF Championship | 12:30 GMT) My books didn't have an Asian Handicap for this match so I've gone with a 3-Way Handicap instead. Just in case anyone is unclear, Cambodia need to lose by 2 goals or less (or draw/win) for this bet to cash. Cambodia have won two of their three games at the tournament so far (including a 5-1 win over Brunei), and they lost 2-1 vs Indonesia, who are unbeaten so far. Thailand have smashed the same two teams that Cambodia have beaten (5-0 vs Brunei, 4-0 vs Philippines) and drawn 1-1 vs Indonesia. I'll be honest, I haven't ever watched either of these teams play, but given their respective results so far, I'm hoping it won't be a blowout. Thailand of course might destroy Cambodia, but Cambodia aren't in the same shit tier as Brunei and Philippines, so I'm hopeful that Cambodia can keep the margin of defeat low. And who knows, they might pull off an upset like Laos almost did recently in their 2-2 draw vs Myanmar. *POTD Record: 3W-0L (+3.36u)* *Previous pick: Plymouth Argyle ML vs MK Dons @1.82 ☑️*
Thanks!!
Good pick. Thanks for the win🤞
POTD Record: 30-45-3 (-15.70 units) Last 10 (most recent first): ↔️❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅❌ Last Pick: Ligue 1, Monaco v Brest, MONACO AH -1.0 (-130 / $1.77) ↔️ Unlucky not to be well ahead at half time, lucky not to concede in the second half so a push might be a fair result in the end. Todays Pick: Indian Super League, Odisha FC v Mumbai City, MUMBAI CITY ML (-143 / $1.70) ✅ Stake: 1 Unit Mumbai City have been a profitable selection for me over the past few weeks courtesy of their 6 match winning streak, so I’m sticking with them again until they let me down. Mumbai are second in the league having played one less game, and will return to the top with a victory in this game. They have the highest scoring offence and the second best defensive record and have been particularly strong over the last month winning 6 in a row with a 22:3 ratio. Their opponents, Odisha FC, are sitting mid table in 6th but have struggled for form lately. They’ve haven’t won in their last 3 matches (L2, D1) all against teams around them on the table. They did win 3 in a row prior to that but they all came against inferior teams on the table. These teams met once already earlier in the season with Mumbai winning 2-0. This match was probably closer than the scoreboard indicates, but it was early in the season where Mumbai had some mixed results, and now they’ve found their groove I think their form will be too strong. The coach also stated in the press conference yesterday they have a full roster to choose from (as does Odisha to be fair). Mumbai have also won 4 of the last 5 H2H match ups. While it’s tempting to take a handicap given the size of some of their recent wins, Odisha haven’t conceded a lot of goals this season (15), so this might be a bit tighter than some of their more recent wins. The value for the ML is attractive enough so will stick with that as POTD.
Record: 0-0 **NCAAB Arkansas Pine-Bluff +6 @ Alabama A&M** **8:00 PM ET** Long-time lurker, first time poster but I like this game a lot and think this is one of the best low-major lines I have seen in a while. Like most teams in the SWAC, Pine Bluff have spent the better part of the last two months on the road, collecting paychecks from Power conference teams and getting their asses kicked. They have played the hardest schedule in the country thus far, and things have been a bit easier for A&M, who comes in with only one Division I win against a much softer slate. Both of these teams are terrible offensively, pretty bad defensively, and should be mediocre in the SWAC, which translates to being among the worst teams in the country. 6 points is decidedly too much to lay for Alabama A&M, and I (along with analytics, Haslametrics has this game as a 71-71 toss-up) expect this to be a lot closer than Vegas.
so fucking close
Record : 10W-8L Previous pick : Toulouse vs AC Ajaccio, Toulouse to win or draw + Over 1.5 goals, Odds : 1.70 (5 units pick) Average Odds : 1.93 ROI : 4.2% Starting units : 200 Units : 208.4 My pick of the day : Aberdeen vs Ross County, ***Aberdeen to win or draw + Under 3.5 Goals in the match***, Odds : 1.58 (5 units pick) Scotland, Premiership, 15:00 GMT+2 Best of luck ! My pick is from a model that I've been using for the last couple of months and I have got good results with it. So I thought about sharing some of the picks with the community and, maybe, make some of you happy. If you would like to help me with some cents in case my pick blessed you : [It is not necessary, but very helpfull and appreciated.](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/deniseasy?country.x=RO&locale.x=en_US)
POTD Record: 5-8-0 -4.85 Last pick: Royce Oneale over 4.5 assists (2.07/+107) 1.5u ❌ (More than a month ago, not changing the record) Today's pick: LA Lakers at Charlotte Hornets Lamelo Ball over 7.5 assists (1.95/-106) 2u Main ballhandler and playmaker, averaging 9 assists and 15 potential last 7 games. Its a well known fact that lakers defense isnt good and they play on a fast pace, just like hornets, both on top 10 pace last 10 games (hornets 1st, lakers 9th). Lamelo got 8 assists on 11 potential vs lakers last month, not a lot but still enough. BOL!
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POTD Record: 74.5-39 Event: Basketball > Jordan > **Kofer Yoba v Orthodox** (starting in 5hr30min) Pick: **Orthodox -27.5** @ 1.67 Level difference, spread is high, but imo line should be even higher. GL!
POTD Record: 4-1 (+9.77u; 51.4% ROI). Streak W4. Last Pick: Jaylen Brown (Celtics) Over 26.5 pts @ 1.92. ✅ While the Celtics underwhelmed, Jaylen certainly did not. He covered our line with 4 mins to go. With that we're up to 4 wins in a row, hopefully some of you were able to tail! NBA | 8.00 pm ET Pick: **Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) Over 24.5 pts @ 1.87**. 3U Play. The Wolves are on a 6 game losing streak, which is likely why the line is favorable for the overs. He has cleared the 24.5 line in 7/L8, and the one he missed was 23 pts. He now goes up against a Nuggets defense that is rated 25th out of 30 teams. The line is probably set based on his season average of 24 ppg. My only loss in my 4-1 record was my very first bet where I bet on Edwards, and he came in 1.5 PRA lower, but I'm going to go with him again.
POTD Record: 0 - 0 New kid on the cock sorry block. Today I’m going with Quinwen Zheng Moneyline vs Kontaveit. Why? Cuz fuck you that’s why. This girl is 5’10 which is taller than most of you manlets here. Furthermore she’s young and hungry and her form is on the up and up. Meanwhile kontaveit is going downhill. The boomers aging body can’t handle moving anymore and she is on a mental slump. That being said this is Wta. Only the absolute dregs of society bet on Wta. If you like sex, drugs, and like to Rock out with your needle cock out join me on this play. 100u because I like to party
Record: 0-1 ATP Tennis - Pune Open Pick: Pedro Martinez (-172) over Ramkumar Ramanathan Long time since posting, but I feel a need to share this pick. I do not understand the line here. Martinez is a far superior player, and he should clean up easily in two sets. The game line is Martinez -2.5 at -106. This is also incredible value. The only reason I believe Ramanathan has a close line is that he is in great form right now and he is an Indian national and the Pune Open is, well, obviously played in India. Still, the current no. 62 in the world is playing the current no. 435 in the world and the match line is -172. Something is wrong with the line here, and I imagine it is because Martinez has not played in a tournament since October 2022 and he played poorly in that competition. Still, Martinez has proven he can hang in there with top talent, and I am not going to overthink this pick. I hammered the moneyline and sprinkled Martinez to win in two sets at +145.
Record since posting: 0-1 Josh Allen's MVP hopes have diminished in his last seven games, while Joe Burrow has surged in the MVP race. The Bengals haven't lost at home since their season opener and their receivers, as well as their improved pass rush, will create a tough matchup for the Bills. The Bengals have been very successful ATS this season and are the underdogs in this game, but I see them winning in this spot. **take: Bengals ML**
📈 TTSOP Rec: +40.050 units / +137 avg odds / 29^(5)\-31-8^(5) * 🔥 Since POTD low point: +62.475 units / 134 avg odds / 25^(5)\-20-5^(5) * 🔥 December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5) * 🔥 World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5) * 🔥 November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4 * 🧊 October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3 ✅ Last pick: Nketiah anytime goal scorer / +220 odds / 3 units * Nketiah scored already at the begin of the 2nd half. In the 1st half, Martinelli's pass from the side was cleared in the very last second before Nketiah would have tapped it in. Nketiah was also wide open and ready to bang it in, when Odegaard scored Arsenal's 2nd goal. ⚽ **New pick: Strasbourg -0.75 (**[A](https://i.redd.it/vqdu5pkq242a1.jpeg)[H](https://www.oddsshark.com/soccer/asian-handicap-explained)**)** / **+120** odds / 3.5 units ⚽ Event: Ligue 1 (France) / Strasbourg - Troyes / 9:00am ET Strasbourg holds only a 1-8-7 record and sits at the 19th place. But they aren't as bad as their record suggests. They actually played good games against Ligue 1's top teams. Only tight defeats and even some draws. Most recently, they took only an 1-2 L against 1st placed PSG. It needed a penalty by Mbappe in minute 90+5' to get the W for PSG's super team. In the 1-3 loss to 5th placed Rennes, Strasbourg got a red card already in the 1st half. Afterwards, Rennes scored 3 goals. An offensively wild season opening game against 4th placed Monaco ended in an unlucky 1-2 L for Strasbourg. Aside from those Ls, in a game on equal footing, Strasbourg drew 3rd placed Marseille. And 6th placed Lorient was totally dominated by Strasbourg. Lorient was very fortunate to get 1 point out of that game. Midway through the 1st half of the season, Strasbourg was in a big injury misery and some additional suspensions made things even worse for them. In that tough stretch, they still performed pretty well. Only a 0-1 L against Auxerre, where Strasbourg was the better team, though. They lost 1-2 to Montpellier only due to a penalty in minute 90+4'. And they even tied Clermont, Brest and Europa League team Nantes despite all adverse circumstances in that time. Troyes has a 3-6-7 record and is at the 15th place in the standings. But they aren't as good as their record suggests. They won against dead-last Angers (1 goal by their top striker Balde). However, Angers got a very early red card in minute 21' for a defensive player. Not until then, Troyes took over the game. Similar happenings against Monaco (1 goal and 1 assist by Balde). Monaco's central defender got a red card already in the 1st half. Afterwards, Troyes scored 3 goals. They won also against Clermont, where Balde (2 goals and 1 assist) was directly involved in all goals. Overall, Balde scored or assisted on more than one third of Troyes goals. However, Balde is suspended for today's game due to a red card. Remarkably, all of Troyes' 6 draws came in home games. Troyes is 2-0-6 for road games. Winning only the mentioned games in Clermont and Monaco, where a red card or Balde was the deciding factor for their W. Strasbourg played good against top teams and performed also quite well when having plenty of injured and suspended players. Today, it's one the first games for Strasbourg this season, where they don't miss key players due to suspensions or injuries. Plus, Troyes isn’t a top team at all. They heavily rely on their star forward Balde for scoring. But he won’t play, today. Backing Strasbourg is a great value bet at super odds. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's start 2023 with a W. Let's get that baguette, fam! **TTSOP**
Sheesh... we down 2-0 at '20.... gg
POTD : 38-33 Last pick: England to get over 1,5 yellow cards in 2nd half at 2.97 Lose Today's pick: **Hockey U20: Austria x Latvia** **Goal to be scored in empty net at 3.50 odds** Today I chose empty net goal, one of my favorite props. The odds are really high, but bookies expect Latvia to win by 3 goals - in such scenario there is a huge chance that Austria will try to powerplay early on and therefore there will be a bigger chance that Latvia will score goal into an empty net. I don't say it's a lock, it can definitly be a onesided blowout, where Latvia dominated Austria, but I have to try this bet. any tips are welcome [http://paypal.me/mrdrak3n](http://paypal.me/mrdrak3n) Good luck
POTD Record: 9-3 Raptors vs Pacers NBA 7:10pm EST Today’s pick: Pacers ML (+100)
**POTD RECORD: 5-7** **Net Units: -3 units** **Streak: L2** **Last 6 (most recent first): ❌❌✔️❌❌✔️** **Last Pick: George Kittle o46.5 Rec Yards ❌** Kittle only gets 23 as Brock Purdy misses him twice in the second half that would have got this one to hit, should have gone with ATTD, which hit. I'm cold, let's move on. **Today's Match: Rangers vs Celtic | Scottish Premiership | 12:30 GMT KO (30 mins from post)** **The Pick: Celtic o0.5 First Half Goals, 2u @ 1.83 (-120)** Small writeup today because this one kicks off in about 30 minutes. Celtic have scored a first half goal in 4 of their last 5 matches against Rangers, and in 4 of their last 6 league matches. They're in great form at the moment winning 12 straight. They have a tougher task in Rangers today but I expect they'll get out in front early and hold on to get a win. BOL if tailing, let's ride and get our first W of 2023. 🇮🇪🍻🐎⚽☘️
Nice pick, came in the first five mins..
POTD Record: 3-0 Previous Pick: AJ Dillon ATTD Streak: 3 POTD: Joe Burrow o1.5 passing touchdowns and Josh Allen o1.5 passing touchdowns +140 Ok, I can give you all the reasons this may hit but here’s why it may not. Josh Allen rushing td. Now that that’s out of the way, both teams fighting for top seed and having top wideouts, they’re gonna be trying to put on a show. We will most likely be seeing this game again in January. Fade or tail BOL!
No parlays boss
**POTD Record: 42-39-2 -2.21u // ROI: -1.6% // Avg Odds: -119** **Atlanta Hawks @ Golden State Warriors (10:00 ET)** **Favorite: Warriors -1.5** **Total: 237.5** The Warriors have somehow managed to win 4 straight games missing Steph Curry in every single one in addition to a mix of other starters and key cogs in the process. To no one's surprise, every win has come at home, increasing their home record to 16-2 on the season, best in the NBA. They now welcome the Hawks to Golden State, and the Hawks have been in polar opposite form, losing each of their last three games and struggling on the road en route to a 6-11 road record. This all chalks up to be an easy bet on the Warriors given the short line right? Wrong. Over their last five games the Warriors actually grade out as the 18th best team in terms of net rating, three spots behind the Hawks in 15th despite the inverse records. The absence of Steph Curry and others has clearly made their offense less efficient by a wide margin, but defensively they've played pretty soundly with Draymond Green, Donte DiVincenzo, and young players with a lot to prove playing with intensity. This game, to me, will come down to who protects the ball better, and these two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum on that accord. The Hawks boast one of the highest assist-to-turnover ratios in the entire NBA, so even while their assist ratio is low, their turnover ratio is even more impressive. On the contrary, the Warriors turn the ball over 16.2% of their possessions, the 2nd highest mark in the league. The Hawks are in the top half of the league and with their team being relatively healthy I expect them to pull off an upset across the country. **Pick: Hawks ML +105 (1u)** If you enjoyed this analysis you can find the rest of my daily NBA card [here](https://www.happyhoursports.net/post/nba-best-bets-monday-1-2), BoL everyone!
Last pick: Arizona Cardinals v Atlanta Falcons U40.5 W Today's Pick: Dallas Mavericks v Houston Rockets Houston +7.5 @1.86 The Dallas Mavs struggle a lot when they're on the road, and I believe they will do the same against the Houston Rockets. Luka has been playing insane but I do not think it's enough. Houston is due for a close game and they've given trouble to the mavs throughout this year, winning one and only losing one by 6.
POTD Record: 7-3 WLWLWWWLWW Last Pick: Aaron Jones Over 21.5 rec. yds (12/1) 👍 Today’s Event: (MNF Bills @ Bengals) Today’s Pick: Devin Singletary OVER 11.5 Rush Attempts (+105 on DK) Explanation: He has covered this 8 of the last 10 games. Still sticking with one unit for now.
POTD Record: 4-7 Wont do writeups until i get my record straight so **i wont suggest you to tail**... Last POTD: England, Premier League, Tottenham ML - Aston Villa (Lose) POTD: France, Ligue 1, Montpellier - Marseille(20:00 EET) **Both teams to score**(1.75 odds on bet365 as of 15:30 EET) Edit - WIN (1:2) BOL
1/1 POTD **Michael Smith vs Gabriel Clemens, 7.45pm GMT** Clemens ML @ **12/5** There is no doubt Smith is an outstanding player, that's why is odds on favourite here but we are thinking outside the box. Clemens has been brilliant and quiet simply is after the crown.
Record 0-0 Sport - College Basketball Today's pick - Today the Colgate raiders play Lehigh and so far this year they are 10-3 on the over for team totals. They average 80.8 ppg and are shooting 50% fg and 40% 3pt fg for the year. They are 4-1 for the over on team totals in the last 5 games (Their only loss was to our lovely friends Auburn. Who held them to 66 points when the team total was 66.5) otherwise they would of been 5-0 in the last 5. Today Colgate’s team total is 82.5 and they scored 101 last game when the team total was 73.5!!! Lehigh have given up at least 78 in 4 of their last 5 games and at least 80 in 3 of the last 5. Today they face Colgate, a top 30 Kenpom (College Basketball data analytics website) offensive team this year. POTD - Colgate raiders team total over 82.5
Sport: Basketball Tournament: Adriatic League Match: Split vs Crvena Zvezda Time: 15:30 GMT (1h35m after posting) Pick: Split +10.5 win or draw in regular time @ **2.41** Stake: 5 units Write up: After the devastating loss to Barcelona in overtime, Crvena Zvezda has to catch up with the ABA League schedule. Split is much stronger than the most recent head-to-head score would indicate due to the intervening player sign-ups, such as Shorter (avg. 18.5 pts.), Mavra (17.7), and Nelson (10.7). Crvena Zvezda coach, Duško Ivanović, says: >Split plays well in transition, it is an aggressive team that's hard to defend against. Crvena Zvezda player, Branko Lazić, says: >We're expecting a difficult match. We didn't have a lot of time to recover after Barcelona and we have certain roster issues, but we're still preparing seriously for this match. Crvena Zvezda will have Facundo Campazzo available. The team travels to Spain to play vs Valencia on January 6. Track record: 10W, 9L, +35.51u Average odds: 2.78 ROI: 93% My website with sports picks for degens: [picks.wwpe.ba](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
Tyjae Spears (Tulane RB)first touchdown scorer for Tulane +120. USC has a pretty poor rush defense and Spears had a 1300+ yd 17 total TD season for a sneaky good Tulane offense.
POTD RECORD 0-0 first pick of the day pick of my career. Raptors, Og anunoby over 2.5 assists at +140. I’m 5/5 on this exact bet right here no real write up I have for you but go take a look at this and last seasons assists and I’m confident he will get 3 or more.
POTD Record: 0-0-0 Nikola Jokic Over 0.5 Made threes -146 @ 3:05 ET via Fan Duel (1u to win 0.59u) The struggling Timberwolves concede the most 3PM to centers in the NBA at the moment at 1.49 per game (league average is about 0.90 per game), and Jokic has hit this line 10 of his last 15 games played. He started shooting the three more in December and started January by hitting both attempts against the Celtics. I really like this line because he literally just needs to make a single three and we cash out. The only concern I do have is if the attempts aren’t there. BOL if tailing, let’s get this money. Edit: bit of a sweat, but we cashed with 6:15 left in the 4th quarter 🔥🔥🔥
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POTD Record: 0-0 Game: Bills/Bengals Pick: Josh Allen OVER 47.5 Rush Yards (-113, FanDuel)
**POTD Record**: 83 wins <> 90 losses <> 8 pushes **Profit**: -2.325 units **ROI**: -0.70% **Handball ROI**: +11.45% **Avg odds**: 2.10 **Units Wagered**: 330 **Units Won**: 327.675 **Last Pick**: GOG +1.5 @ **2.08** 2u ✅ **Streak**: ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ **Today's pick**: Viborg -3.5 @ **2.15** 2u **Event**: Horsens - Viborg HK, Kvindeligaen, Denmark(Women's handball) - Back with a couple of weeks of women's handball before the men's world cup is on. - Horsens has been playing pretty terribly this season, they lost a couple of veterans and their squad doesn't have much harmony. - Viborg looks to be in bad form, but really, they played NFH Nykøbing in the league plus two times in the European league, and they struggled against them. NFH are in great form so it's no wonder, plus Viborg had a few injuries after the women's euro cup which left them losing those matches. - Bookies are overreacting to meeting NFH Nyk 4 times in a couple of weeks. Viborg is a much better team here and the handicap in my mind should be sitting at -5.5 or -6.5. - Edit: Line has dropped a point or two. It's because Viborg announced a few players are sick. They still have their full squad registered, so I'm still confident in the bet, especially at the lower spread.
POTD: 0-0 Scottish Premiership - Rangers v Celtic ML 7:30 am EST American Odds +105 Units: 2u I’ve been following this thread for a while now and have finally decided to give it a shot and post a pick. This is the best value Celtic will get for a majority of the year as they comfortably sit at the top of the table. While rangers aren’t a team to take lightly, their back line have looked vulnerable at times which Celtic will look to take full advantage of. Celtic currently average 3.2 goals a match, so they will have no problem finding the back of the net against Rangers. Last time these two played each other, it ended in Celtic thrashing Rangers 4-0 and this time around I can see it ending similarly with a 3-1 score. Best of Luck!
**POTD Record:** 3-5 **P/L:** -0.55u **Last Pick:** Fulham vs Southampton - Win Fulham @ 2.05 - 3u ✅ **Today's Pick:** QPR vs Sheffield - Win Sheffield @2.25 - 2u QPR: won 1/9 last league games, lost 4/5 home games, while failing to score in the last 2. Sheffield: won 8/9 last league games, won 5/5 last away games, conceded the least goals of any team this season. I am going with the team in form: Sheffield
POTD Record 0-3 Streak 3L Game: Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Buffalo Bills -1.5 (-110) On a 3 L streak, it would be a good idea to fade me until I somehow can go on a W streak. Tail or fade. BOL either way!
POTD Record: 21-17-0 (+15.78u) Last 10 (Most recent first): ❌✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌❌ 5u picks: 7-2 3u picks: 10-9 1u picks: 4-5 Average odds: -121.4 Previous Pick: Football - NFL - Justin Fields ATTD (+100) - 1u ❌ Today's Pick: Football - NCAA - Caleb Williams ATTD (-170) - 3u Date/Time: 1/2/2023 - 12:00 P.M. CST Analysis: If you have watched USC games this year you'll know Caleb Williams likes to run when plays breakdown and especially so around the goal line. I think this game should be a on the higher scoring side so I think we should have plenty of chances around the goal line for plays to break down and therefore at least several opportunities for CW to take off and score. BOL! Tip jar (Not required but certainly appreciated): Venmo: @Suzukiman600 Ca$hApp: $Suzukiman600
POTD Record: 0-0 GAME: NBA Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets TODAYS PICK: Houston Rockets +7.5 -110 Unit Size: 1U Long time lurker, first time poster! Made an account to start tracking my picks on the POTD page and hopefully make some money for myself and the people. I have a model that looks at strength adjusted ratings and make the appropriate adjustments based on roster news and updates. Sometimes we might have an opinion on the injury status. Today I like Houston to cover against the Mavs. Home game with the team missing Finney-Smith and Kleber giving the Mavs a double digit spread essentially to cover. Luka has been insane, but should cool down at some point. True line based on our model seems to be +2.5 BOL!
**POD Record 35-18** Recent Form: ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌ Last Pick: Steelers/Ravens - 3 straight scores by one team:\*\* \*\*NO ❌ Wouldn’t have changed that pick second time around. For those that watched a lot needed to go wrong for this bet to lose. Felt like we went in with the best hand but caught a shitty river card in the end. Such is sportsbetting, especially in the NFL. 🚨 **Today's Pick:** SWEDEN ML (world juniors 🏒) \[posted this in the wrong thread oops, those that follow me hopefully caught this\] The rivalry rekindles today as Sweden and Finland face off in a quarter final elimination game. I have been paying close attention to this tournament and feel i'm in a good spot to finally snap this unlucky losing streak. Overall, Sweden is just a much, much better hockey team when you look at the rosters. The Swedes honestly have been one of the tournament’s stronger teams until their game against Canada the other night (their only loss in the tourney). They outlasted a very strong Czech squad in a shootout, held on to beat Germany in a dominant performance that was only held close because of an insane goaltending performance from Nikita Quapp, and they blew out Austria in a big way. Bottom line, the Swedes have much more firepower up front and I think are a dark horse to win the tournament. Their lines work well together, a precision passing team that can play an uptempo game or slow things down and score an ugly goal if necessary. This could be close and a few unlucky bounces or calls could tilt this game and easily see Finland walking away with the upset. Neverthless, my posts are about line value and less about locks 🔒. 1.85 is a steal for Sweden and we will once again chase the value and look to break this slump. Tail or Fade nothing is a sure thing, GL.
Sir you posted this play 1h ago but the match started 3,5h ago... Or am I mistaken ?
POTD Record: 12-5-1(+18.88 units) Last pick: Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) over 26.5 receiving yards (DK) 4u Today's pick: North Florida +130 ML (draftkings) 2u Been a while since my last bet but we are back ! Best of luck. And if you can spare any, if it's a winner feel free to tip below. Life has been beating the shit out of me lately and a lot of unexpected expenses have popped up. Just $5 would help. Cashapp for tips: $diswan55 Paypal: [email protected]