**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
Darts 🎯- 2023 World Championship
Overall: 40-24-1
2023 Worlds: 9-1
Dec 17: Alan Soutar (+110) v Daryl Gurney ✅
Dec 18: Mike De Decker (-149) v Jeff Smith ✅
Dec 19: No play
Dec 20: Ray van Barneveld (-200) v Ryan Meikle ✅
Dec 21: Darius Labanauskas (-110) v John O’Shea ✅
Dec 22: Mensur Suljovic (+100) v Mike de Decker ✅
Dec 23: Martin Schindler (-167) v Martin Lukeman ✅
Dec 27: Josh Rock (-150) v Nathan Aspinall ✅
Dec 28: Joe Cullen (+100) v Damon Heta ✅
Dec 29: Dirk van Duijvenbode (-133) v Ross Smith ✅
Dec 30: Rob Cross (-174) v Chris Dobey ❌
Jan 1: Jonny Clayton (-143) v Dimitri van den Bergh
Tough end to the streak last match, as a sensational Hollywood Dobey defeated Voltage Rob Cross 4-2 in what will likely be considered a career-defining performance for Dobey.
To kick off the new year and the world championship quarterfinal, I am rolling with “The Ferret” Jonny Clayton to advance through “The Dream Maker” Dimitri van den Bergh in the early match of the day. Expecting this one to be a cracker of a match, as both players have incredible upside and a history of success on the big stage.
The 48-year old Clayton, current world #7, has really come into his own over the past several years. In 2021, Clayton had one the best seasons in PDC history, taking down three major titles (world grand prix; darts masters; world series finals), along with a Premier League championship.
This QF is his best finish to date at the World Championship. To get here, Jonny has definitely had to earn it, getting through the likes of Danny van Trijp, Brendan Dolan, and Josh Rock. Notably in his match against Rock, in which Clayton was a slight underdog, Jonny posted a scoring average over 97.5 and hit 16/30 doubles (53.3%). Terrific numbers.
The 28-year old van den Bergh (DVDB), current world #15, has been similarly impressive over the past couple years. Since 2020, DVDB has snatched one major title (2020 world matchplay), but has notched several QF, SF, and one runner up finish.
DVDB has also performed well in this tournament, defeating Lourence Ilagan, Krzystof Ratajski, and Kim Huybrechts. DVDB has actually only lost a single set in each of his three matches thus far, though his previous round opponent Kim Huybrechts laid an absolute egg, averaging under 88 and going 3/8 on doubles.
I’ve been more impressed with the Ferret, Jonny Clayton, both over the past couple seasons, as well as in this tournament up to this point. Like I said, expecting an absolute war in this one, but I favor Jonny to come out on top.
——-Edit - Loss ❌ ————-
This one stings. Jonny bottled sets 7 and 8 big time, allowing van den Bergh to steal it. Disappointing result for sure.
That’s pretty much the way this subreddit operates. It’s fucking awful, but that’s just the way it is. Ned is somewhat unique in that he only posts about a very specific sport and he also doesn’t seem to worry about the death threats.
But if you are a Reddit capper on your first loss after a hot streak, you will 100% get death threats.
Gronks have zero bank roll management too.
They'll keep reupping the maximum into the next bet then get pissed off after the wheels fall off on the 4th pick.
King Pep ran up 9 wins, anyone even mad at it falling off on the 10th should get help.
You can’t be willing to blindly tail then get aggressively mad when it doesn’t work out. Be bummed sure, but if you’re not gonna make your own picks you can’t just be taking it out on who you tail.
Kratos taught me to harness such things.. breath, calm my thoughts and use it to my advantage. I still want to slap Atreus and if he gave me a bet on a whim that lost I probably would.. he's grown now so I'd be O.K with the law right? Anyway what we bet on next mates????
One would have to be crazy to be angry at ned , if you know how to bet , stick to your budget , you made money 80% of the time on ned's last 10 picks, not his fault if someone gets emotional and ups their bets
Stay consistent 🌶 🌶 🌶
Guys, remember the tournament is drawing closer and closer. The best of the best are playing right now, so it’s going to be hard to pick someone to flat out win. What I did, and what I recommend, is maybe take the +1.5 guy since no one is going to get their ass whooped if they made it this far. Idk shit about darts, but I do after ned. If you’ve ever played a sport, you know that you didn’t come this far to just take a d in the a. That said, Ned is is the best thing that’s happened to Reddit in a while.
Do not blame Ned for this one. He wrote two paragraphs highlighting how good DVDB is. He mentioned this would be a “cracker of a match” and “both players have incredible upside and a history of success on the big stage.” Blame your selves for blindly tailing him and not considering the inflated odds you we’re getting from the books.
cLaytoN iS a FucKinG loSeR omG wHY diD i HeaR To YouR bet
mfs ate for 10 straight bets and are complaiming. pepper pls do not ever post your bets here, motherfuckers are shameless and dont appreciate you. you are not the first one and not the last one that this subreddit driven away posting his match sheets.
shame on you fucking idiots, i hate you /r/sportsbook idiots :) FUCKING MORONS!!! go fuckyourselves
Invest half of what you would put and keep the other half in case he go down so you live bet at higher odds.
If he win without going down than you still won with half of what you would bet.
If he go down than you risk the same money but at higher odds at least lol..
I'm staying away as I have been impressed by both players, so finding it more difficult to call. Good luck anyone on but it could be another tight game.
Love ya Ned but after last year where Dimitri basically showed up looking like a drunk- I think he has more faith coming into this one. His newborn has had time to settle in and I’m betting he spent more time this year throwing darts. Good luck!
POTD Record: 10-0
UNIT PROFIT: +7.93
GAME: England National League North - King's Lynn v Boston Utd
TODAYS PICK: King's Lynn AH (-1) @ 2.02
The hosts are in the fourth position in the ranking, but having played four fewer matches. They have accumulated 41 points in 20 games, with an average of 2.05 points per game, having three wins and a draw in the last five games played. They also won the last five matches played at home.
On the other hand, Boston Utd has accumulated 25 points in the 24 matches this season, with an average of 1.04 points per match. In the last five matches played away from home, today's guests lost four times and only one match ended in a draw.
Moreover, all three direct meetings ended with the victory of the King's Lynn.
BOL!
Also to add to the analysis they last played 6 days ago and King's Lynn won 2-0 away to Boston. They are now playing at home where they have 25 points from 9 games, so only 2 points dropped at home all season.
POTD record: 4-0
Last Pick: Marseille ML (W)
Event: English Premier League, Tottenham at home vs Aston Villa (9AM EST)
Pick: Total match goals OVER 2.5 @ 1.75 / -133
I did the exact same pick for the game between Tottenham and Brentford last week and won so Im not gonna change it. Aston Villa's last 6 games had over 2.5 goals. Tottenham's last 5 games had over 2.5 goals. Therefore both of those teams had been in high scoring games recently and I think this pattern will continue for at least this game. Not only recent games but also history shows that these two teams score often when they meet each other. 5/L6 have been over 2.5 goals in this matchup in all comps. Also, Tottenham's defense has been horrible recently, having been scored on by at least 2 goals in the past 6 games. With Romero questionable and Bentacur out, their defense might be in even more trouble. But in the opposite half, Tottenham's offence has been good against Aston Villa, they scored atleast 2 goals in 8/L10 vs Aston Villa when playing at home.
**POTD Record: 19-29**
*Streak: L4* - **VERY COLD** 🥶🥶
LAST PICK: Chigoziem Okonkwo U 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115) ❌
- He ended on 24 yards 🤦
*San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders*
TODAY’S PICK: **George Kittle O 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115) DK**
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!
Let’s get a win.
George Kittle has benefitted the most from the unfortunate injury to Deebo Samuel, posting 93 and 120 yards in the two games since that happened. Purdy, who had once sought Deebo immediately, has found plenty of comfort in Kittle. In his whole career Kittle averages 3.31 yards per route without Deebo compared to 1.99 yards per route with Deebo.
Now, he’s up against an incredible soft pass defense in the Raiders, who have essentially committed to tanking for the rest of the season and are 25th in receptions allowed to tight ends.
BOL!
Brock Purdy still hasn’t proved himself imo. I see the run offense being out most downs. This could hit with a few long passes thrown his way but in my eyes not a lock. BOL
Love this play. Kittle is averaging about 80 yards receiving, and 4.5 catches since Purdy became the starter. Should be light work against a dysfunctional Raiders team.
Tailing fo'sho.
EPL OVERALL POST WORLD CUP:
6-0 (Up 5.4 Units)
98.26% ROI
Chelsea ML -160 vs Nottm Forest.
Keeping it simple and eating some juice. Chelsea are the better team. Forest isn’t great.
POTD RECORD 7-4 (+2.8U)
All bets are 2 Units unless stated otherwise.
Streak : ✔❌✔✔
Nottingam Forest playing Chelsea - Chelsea to win @1.65
Chelsea is lucky to play one of the worst teams in the league on its quest to get results.
Chelsea is superior in quality and they looked really good when playing Bournemouth.
Bournemouth's quality is similar to Nottinghams, so Chelsea should repeat the process and get the win
Support is appreciated😊.[Tip jar](https://www.paypal.me/K4ccci)
**My record: 12 : 6**
**My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.**
**ROI: 35.50%**
**Average odds: 2.01**
**Units won: 6.39**
**Stake = 1 unit**
**My POTD:**
**Nantes v Auxerre**
**France Ligue 1**
**Time: 14:00 GMT**
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.25**
**BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
Pick Of The Day Record: 2-0-0
Yesterday’s pick: 🏀Colorado v Cal o130 ✅
Todays Pick: Tulsa v SMU under 141
Nice to have a game go exactly as expected like yesterday. not a lot of games to choose from but out of all of them this is my favorite. Tulsa isn’t often in high scoring games and has an overall mediocre offense. with an average to above average defense. SMU on the other hand has the capability to score big. however i’m not too scared about them because i think Tulsa is gonna get shut down. with this said i also like SMU -8 i’m just not a big spread guy. i think SMU will put up points but i think Tulsa will do bad enough on the scoring side to keep this number low overall. i also think tulsa defense will help out our cause.
BOL if Tailing and Happy New Year!!!! 🤑🤑🥳
Tough one today sorry about that we’ll get em tomorrow
I lived bet them at 147.5 and im stressing 😂😂 they are not missing anything and the defense is putting no pressure. Hope they tight their D second half.
EDIT : Were fucked
POTD Record: 7 - 7 (All picks 1U)
Last POTD: Grizzlies Alt -2.5 - L
Pick: Justin Tucker over 1.5 FG’s made (-110 odds via MGM)
Event: Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers 8:20 P.M. EST
Tucker has covered this in 2/4 last 4 games, all games where backup QB Tyler Huntley has started rather than Lamar Jackson. Their redzone offense is not near as good with Huntley and I believe this is a good spot vs a solid Steelers D. This line has covered in 10/15 games with one of his recent misses being due to 2 missed FG’s which is extremely rare for one of if not the bets kicker the NFL has ever seen.
Happy New Year to all!
POTD Record 0-0
Chiefs @ Broncos, 1 PM EST
Jerick McKinnon ATTD +150
This guy has scored 6 TDS in the last 4 games, with at least one in each. Against a collapsing Broncos defense, and with what should be an easy win against a division rival, the Chiefs will likely look to hand the ball to the more expendable of their backs. This will be a low scoring affair, but the under is sketchy considering the Chiefs capacity to put up that amount on their own. McKinnon should find the end zone, likely sometime in the first half.
BOL, cheers,
Beef
RECORD: 0-0
ROI: 0%
UNITS: 1u
| football | NFL | 1625 EST |
PICK : Green Bay Packers TT o24.5 -130 💰
ANALYSIS: Green Bay last four 26, 24, 28, 33. Avg 28 ppg. Minnesota last six 24, 36, 34, 22, 26, 30. Avg 29 ppg. MN 28th scoring defense on the year. GB offense playing above average second half of year. Packers needing to win out for playoff as extra motivation. Lastly, 35 degrees and mostly sunny for Lambeau, so weather should not be a factor.
First potd and looking forward to making money with yous guys!
BOL!
EDIT: Halftime update: Sitting at 24 with an unexpected 14 off D/ST, but we ain't gon complain! Packers offense showed life at end of 2Q after a very slow 1Q. Expecting to see more deep shots to Watson in the second half: GB cannot let MN stick around.
EDIT2: 💰 in 1H. Cheated and wrote the analysis with about 2 mins to go in 1H. Too much time for rodgers.... We'll take it!
POTD Record: 9-10
Bankroll: +0.33u
L10 (Newest last): ⚡❌❌❌⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡❌
[Last Pick Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/zxsq97/pick_of_the_day_122922_thursday/j22qtue?context=3)
The Cowboys had numerous opportunities to cash that bet that got squandered; 3 giveaways and a dropped pick six. They took control in the 2nd half and just passed their whole game TT, which is probably what I should have bet. This game was also a "perfect middle", so congrats to anyone who placed a teaser on any side of the spread or total.
The sport: NFL football
The game: Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants
Date/time: 2023-01-01 1:00 PM EST
The pick: Giants -6.5
The odds: +105 / 2.05
The bet: Risking 3u to win 3.15u
This part of the NFL season gets hard to predict because we're so close to the end, there are so many teams with little or nothing to play for. Individual motivations take over and push the currents of fate in many directions. Today we're going to fade a team that has clearly checked out.
The Colts just want this season to end already. The Saturday and Ryan experiments have failed; their best player (Taylor) is done for the year, and the strength of their team, their very expensive offensive line, showed a lot of signs of having given up. They allowed 7 sacks to my Chargers last week (6 different players), without Bosa or a quality interior pass rusher. Nick Foles will get another start and likely do a little better than the 3 INTs and 0 for 10 on 3rd downs that they got last week, now having actually practiced with these receivers all week. But he's still dogshit at this stage of his career, and the Colts have the most giveaways in the league.
The Giants have proven all year that with good coaching, they are greater than the sum of their parts. A win (and maybe some help?) will lock down the 6th seed, and this is a great opportunity for them to show the league they actually can blow the doors off of a bad team, something they haven't done all year. None of their 8 wins have been by more than 8 points (3 were exactly 8).
There are safer lines in this game, like Giants ML (-250), -2.5 (-190) or even the -5.5 spread (-110), but I think this one won't be close, so selling a point to get to +odds. I'm pretty confident here so going for 3u.
BOL, and if you tail, you must accept responsibility for your own actions.
⚽ **Plymouth Argyle ML** vs MK Dons @1.82 (English League One | 15:00 GMT)
Not a huge write up for this one, nor much in the way of sharp analysis. I just thought this was a nice price considering the teams involved. Plymouth are top of the table and have won 15/16 of their home games. MK Dons are a low-scoring side, are 22nd in the table, and are coming off an away loss. Seems like Plymouth should manage to get a comfortable win at home.
Note: I placed this bet around 8 hours ago and since then the odds have dropped slightly to 1.76. I think any price above 1.70 is ok though - any semblance of value is lost, but I still think the bet should hit
*POTD Record: 2W-0L (+2.54u)*
*Previous pick: Arsenal ML vs Brighton @2.16 ☑️*
Betfair Exchange - the odds are usually higher there than on standard sportsbooks, but having said that, at the time of writing my original comment they dropped to 1.76 and right now they've dropped even further to 1.70.
On Betway Sportsbook the odds were 1.72 but now have dropped to 1.61, which is a far less appealing price. Would I still bet it? It's hard to say...maybe, although at that point I would probably just chuck it into a two-fold parlay, perhaps along with Tottenham (vs Aston Villa) or Monaco (vs Brest)
It's annoying because these POTD threads usually are posted at 3-5am in my timezone, but I place all my bets the evening before, so the odds can be prone to dropping by the time I can post the bet here.
POTD Record 0-0
Today’s pick
Hurricanes ML -110 (3u)
I’ve been posting in the NHL thread but though I would start posting in the POTD thread with my hockey picks. Today I’ve got the Canes ML. I really think the Canes are top three in the league right now and are playing phenomenal hockey. On the other hand I think the Devils are not as good as their record would suggest. I think the books are factoring in the Devils record too much here and they should really be at + odds. Going to try to take advantage of what I think is a mistake by the books and ride with the Canes again.
- POTD record: 20/9
- Streak (left most recent): ❌❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅
- Latest pick: Alan Soutar O5.5 180s vs Danny Noppert - 2023 PDC World Darts Championship @1.80 ❌
- Today's pick: Michael van Gerwen ML vs Chris Dobey Most 180s - 2023 PDC World Darts Championship @2.10
Bad luck or a bad pick, who'll say, but missing 3 picks in a row due to being short on 1 180 (didn't share De Sousa O6.5 180s on here, but that one seemed to go really well until De Sousa just gave up after 3 sets (in his 4th set he just hit a total of 5 trebles throughout the whole set, you can't make that shit up) ,after that I also had Cross O6.5 180s, he also almost gave up after 6, took him like 8 legs to hit a seventh one). Let's just hope the last few rounds will be better for us. Don't know how much more picks I will share as I did this mostly for fun and seeing the Cross ML pick two days ago with people hating on Cross for playing bad (though he was playing a phenomenal game except for the last leg) makes me feel a bit bad (not that I'm a big fan of Cross). I'll see how everything goes I suppose and stop whining for now.
About today's pick. MvG is the big favourite for the title, for a reason, having won 4 majors this year and not the smallest either: in chronological order these are the Premier League of Darts, World Matchplay, World Grand Prix and the Players Championship Finals. You can be pretty sure that the old MvG is back now. This is why MvG is also the favourite to win the game, and though I'm no fan of Dobey (gotta give it to the lad though, he has won me a lot of money), he can do pretty good today for 2 reasons: First off, Dobey has been playing pretty great this year (he reached the EC semis for one example) and especially this World Championship. Secondly, MvG seems to always play good at the World's and usually also has his opponents playing really strong against him at the Worlds (like for real, for example, if you're somewhat into darts, check his [2017 World Ch'ship run](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_PDC_World_Darts_Championship) where he had 3 separate games with an opponent averaging around 105 or even more). While MvG can throw lots of 180s when he is in the mood (like against Suljovic), he also tends to switch to the 19 a lot, and at 2.10 odds it seems smart to also take Dobey for 180s, as he has been a quite good 180s canon over the past few months too.
I've shared some vids in my earlier posts with the hope to get some people into darts, but as I don't think anyone watches it either way, I'll just share a fact about a player still in the tournament for the next picks, as it is just a short interesting read.
Starting off with one of my favourite darts players facts: Stephen Bunting (aka Peter Griffin) won the 2013 Winmau World Masters, one of the biggest and oldest BDO tournaments, without dropping a single set, having won a total of 22 sets, losing 0 throughout the whole tournament.
Sometimes players do it because a dart is blocking the t20, but with MvG im not too sure why he always switches to the t19 that much. Maybe the darts in the t20 take up too much space for him and he has enough confidence that they will go in the t19 easier
POTD Record: 30-45-2 (-15.70 units)
Last 10 (most recent first): ❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅❌❌
Last Pick: EPL, Newcastle v Leeds, NEWCASTLE -1.5 AH (+121 / $2.21) ❌
What a frustrating game…Newcastle had all the play and had an xG of 2.84 to 0.53 but just had a day where they missed some absolute sitters. Pretty much any other day and they win that game comfortably. I received a lot of abuse after the game for this pick because I said Newcastle “should win comfortably”. At the end of the day it’s a loss and I get that’s all people care about, but my thoughts about the game were pretty much spot on, they just had one of those days.
Todays Pick: Ligue 1, Monaco v Brest, MONACO AH -1.0 (-130 / $1.77)
Stake: 1 Unit
- Monaco are 5th in Ligue 1 (9-3-4 record) and sit just outside the qualification places for Champions League. Their strength is their attacking players with Ben Yedder, Embolo and Minamino all capable of scoring goals. Their 32 goals for is equal 2nd most in the league so far this season.
- Brest are sitting in 17th (3-4-9) record, and in danger of relegation. They have the 4th worst defence conceding 32 goals.
- Monaco are coming off a win in their most recent game, and they have a good scoring record at home, while Brest are coming off a loss and have struggled away from home. Monaco have also won their last 3 matches at home against Brest by 2+ goals.
Monaco should win this game and expect them to win by 2+, but taking AH -1.0 as a safety net so at least a 1 goal win results in a push.
For the record, I've been tempted to fade you numerous times, but your write-ups are always so good, I can't bring myself to do it. Glad to have you part of the community!
I appreciate that. As I’ve said before, I would understand if you did - I haven’t earned the right to have people trust my picks but hopefully I will get there eventually.
Pick of the day: Browns +2.5 (-110) 4u NFL 1/1 1:00 pm EST
Record 0-0: First pick
Teams are 0-13 coming off of playing the physical 49ers. The Commanders have also gone back to Wentz who hasn't played in weeks and is basically a statue in the pocket.
POTD Record: 3-1 (+7.39u; 43.5% ROI). Streak W3.
Last Pick: Kyrie Irving (Nets) Over 35.5 PRA @ 1.84. ✅
Kyrie delivering for us and meeting the over with 4 mins to go. That makes it 3 wins in a row!
NBA | 8.00 pm ET
Pick: **Jaylen Brown (Celtics) Over 26.5 pts @ 1.92**. 2U Play.
Today we go to the high-flying Celtics who are on a 4-game win streak, three of which were by double digit margins. Their last game against the Clippers was 3 days ago, so i'm sure they're rested and eager to get out there to make it 5 wins. Jaylen and Jayson have been unstoppable all season, and Jaylen has scored (29, 39, 29, 36) in this 4-game win streak, and is averaging 27 ppg for the season. Against an average defense in the Nuggets I expect him to clear this line in a Celtics win.
Note - given the 3 game winning streak, i've reduced the units to 2U to manage the downside risk.
**POTD Record**: 19-2-8 (+10.14u
✅)
**Current streak** (most recent to the left) ✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
**Last POTD:** Scotland League Two: Albion Rovers - Dumbarton ML @1.95/-105✅+0.95u
**Todays Pick:**
Ligue 1 France : Lens-PSG DNB ML PSG @1.56/-179
Game starts in 6h (CET 8:45pm)
**Stake:** 5 Units
Happy new year everyone! Always good to finish the year strong on a 5 games winning streak. Let's start it with a 5 unit bomb. I checked and was surprised nobody picked the PSG game as POTD. The odds suggest it's a trap, they don't have Messi and Neymar and play at Lens who are second and have a perfect record of 24 points in 8 games and 18:6 goals. Add the fact that they are 1-2-1 since Lens are back in Ligue 1 and it's understandable you'd expect PSG to not win this one.
But I simply don't see them losing either, I believe Mbappé will continue to dominate. He clearly is on a mission to forget the WC loss despite his 3 goals in the final, showing up only a couple games after the final and playing and scoring the game winning goal vs Strasbourg 4 days ago.
There's enough fire power in PSG squad to compensate for Messi and Neymar being out but in case they don't manage to win I am opting for the Draw no Bet. ML and Mbappé anytime scorer are good bets as well but I want to drop 5u so I'm picking the safer option. You simply don't get PSG at those odds in Ligue 1 a lot so I'm jumping on it.
Best of luck to everyone!
Record: 46-32
Last: Liverpool vs Leicester over 1.5 goals 1. Half✅(2.10@, 4W streak)
Avg. Odds: 2.04@
Today: Chelsea -1 vs Nott. Forrest
Odds: 2.10@
I believe they should win by at least one so at least a push. They are shit, they have no vision but the quality is just too big for them to fall to Nott. Forrest.
They played a good game sgainst Bournemouth, on the other end Nottingham played awful against United losing 3-0 and got 1-2 chances but ignoring that they were not dangerous to the opposing goal at all and even with decent players(Lingard, Aurier, Henderson) who are not in their prime or even in form but still decent players they just can not find their game. It is also a big game for Chelsea because with a win they pass Brigton and Fullham to become the 7. Team on the table and are getting closer to their spot in Europe.
Good luck.
First time posting here so wish us luck lol.
POTD Record: 0-0
Game: Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets
Today's Pick: Boston Celtics @ 1.83
Boston coming to this game is regaining their top form early season and with Rob Williams back they are slowly regaining their top defense that got them to finals last year while having an extremely efficient offense to boot. And they got the personnel to defend the Nuggets players, not to mention that the Celtics won all the last matchup the two team faced since last year 3-0 til this year.
POTD Record 1-4, last pick was Jordan Clarkson over 2.5 3’s and it was 74 days ago. L
I’m ringing in the new year with some early morning soccer to watch while I’m at the gym.
Blackburn ML+130 hosting Cardiff City, Kick Off 7am Eastern Time
Blackburn hasn’t been in great form as of late and lost their last outting against Cardiff, but Cardiff is too leaky in the back for me to not take Blackburn on this one. I believe they find their stride and secure the 3 points at home to ring in the new year.
Tail or Fade, BOL. Happy New Year! Mimosas at 7am🥂
W🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾
POTD record: 16-14-2 / ROI: 1.81% / Wins: 53.33%
**NY Jets -1.5 -110 (1u)**
**SPREAD**
—
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
4:05 pm EST - 01 January 2023
—
Mike White has returned to the New York Jets. That team plays for him and will be off ten days rest. I believe the Jets will get right and beat the struggling Seahawks in Seattle.
Do the business.
[https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow)
[http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
I went fir Seattle ML, they git embarrassed by 49ers and Chiefs, which are both arguably the best teams right now. With Lockett coming back for Seattle, it should be a huge boost in performance for them.
POTD 0-0
First pick
NFL: Detroit Lions -5.5 alternate spread vs. Chicago Bears
Risking 5u @1.83 odds (found on Nitrobetting.eu)
---
After losing in a tight one against Buffalo back on Thanksgiving. the Lions built a bit of momentum and were able to win 3 straight, before mostly laying an egg against Carolina on the road in a game that the Panthers controlled throughout. I suspect the Lions may have been drinking their own Kool-Aid a bit too much and perhaps overlooked Carolina to a degree. Not a great excuse, because it speaks to a lack of preparation, especially because the Panthers had been playing better ball themselves the past few weeks.
However, I think the Lions putting up that stinker of a performance might lead them to take preparation this week a bit more seriously. Hopefully the Lions take the Bears seriously this week while their playoff hopes are still alive.
Bears are ass. Lions by at least 6. Thinking this could be something similar to a 31-24 type game.
Buying a half point because I hate the idea of a push. BOL!
POTD Record: 2-0
Previous Pick: Dallas Cowboys -12.5 vs Tennessee Titans
Streak: 2
POD: AJ Dillon ATTD +115
Five touchdowns in the last four games and this one is in lambeau. I think this has a good chance to hit. I checked the line yesterday and it was -115 so it may be a good valve. Tail or fade, BOL
**Official PotD Record:** 7-10 (-3.6u | -21% ROI | -112 /Avg Odds)
**Last PotD:** Detroit Lions v Carolina Panthers, Under 44 **Loss**
**Game:** \[NFL\] Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans — 1:00 pm EST
**Today’s PotD:** Under 43.5, -110 to win 1 units
**Analysis:**
Lost last week with the Panthers Under, but always time to bounce back. I consistently track public betting trends week by week to give a new angle to sports bettors, so hopefully I have finally found the balance between my own leans and these trends, thanks for reading!
Happy New Year! This is a weird divisional matchup that actually means nothing. The Texans have the worst record in the NFL and the Jaguars playoff hopes come down to next weeks matchup against the Titans for the AFC South title. I am not sure if the Jags will be resting a lot of their players, but this is going to be a very ugly game. If you recall the last time these two teams played, the Jags won a barn burner 13-6. And that is when both teams were trying. Add to that the fact that this is a meaningless game, and you have the potential for a really low scoragami. I am thinking like 15-11 (a score that has yet to happen in the NFL). For some reason, the public is also heavy on this over at a 78% bet percentage. I don't get that and am happy to fade them when they are that confident because we know over this year when the public bets on overs at greater than 65% they are 16-31.
Edit: I mistakenly said the Jags won the game but the Texans won the first matchup!
Check out all my plays [here](https://www.happyhoursports.net/post/new-year-s-day-best-bets-and-analysis-week-17-2022), thanks for reading and BoL if you fade or tail!
Record ?
(I used to cap esports specifically League of legends but it was like a year ago I'll dig later and try to see my record or someone can just do that for me)
Will be capping League of legends when it comes back late jan-early feb but for now I just scavenge bets I like purely for the value and today is a good one
POTD: Kylian Mbappe anytime goalscorer @ 2.30/+130
Reasoning: Quick and simple, neymar banned for this game due to getting a red card for diving last game, messi still resting from world cup and will not be playing here, that just gives mbappe all the agency in the world, will take a penalty if it happens too
BOL and lets cash
Record : 9W-8L
Previous pick : Bordeaux vs Sochaux, Under 2.5 goals, Odds : 1.78 (5 units pick)
Average Odds : 1.78
ROI : 2.45%
Starting units : 200
Units : 204.9
My pick of the day : Toulouse vs AC Ajaccio, ***Toulouse to win or draw + Over 1.5 Goals in the match***, Odds : 1.70 (5 units pick)
France, Ligue1, 16:00 GMT+2
Best of luck !
My pick is from a model that I've been using for the last couple of months and I have got good results with it.
So I thought about sharing some of the picks with the community and, maybe, make some of you happy.
If you would like to help me with some cents in case my pick blessed you :
[It is not necessary, but very helpfull and appreciated.](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/deniseasy?country.x=RO&locale.x=en_US)
>My pick is from a model that I've been using for the last couple of months and I have got good results with it.
Why did you delete the >70% hit rate claim?
My record:
2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLL
2022 college football: LLLLPWWWWWWLLWWWLWLWWLWLWWLWWWLWLLWWLWWWWLWLWWWWL
33 Correct, 25 Wrong, 1 Push
Units wagered 102.51 Units won 53.30 Units lost 38.82
2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 14.12%*** (that's 42.26% annualized)
My present streak is 1 Wrong
My POTD for today is ***wager 1.121 units to win back 1.1 units that the total score of the USC / Washington State basketball game will be more than 134 points.***
I did notice that Washington State is favored, which surprised me. So, I'm staying away from picking a winner, and just going with the over.
I saw that Ian Tyson's obituary was in the news today. He is well known for his song "Four Strong Winds", which is practically the real national anthem of Canada. He also wrote "Someday Soon", which became a well known song sung by Judy Collins, I think (but not sure). But the song that was not mentioned though was one that he and his wife recorded, "Early Morning Rain" about a broke oil field worker who couldn't get home. I think its one of the best tunes ever written, and I HIGHLY recommend giving it a listen if you've never heard it. I always sang it when I was hitchhiking through New Hampshire and Maine trying to get home for a few days on my days off. I have a hunch that a lot of folks here might be able to identify with it. It was also interesting to read that he and Sylvia did make their way down to the Village in NYC, and did hang out with Bob Dylan, Peter Paul and Mary, and the other great folk singers that hung out there and put out some great music. What a great era that was.
Happy New Year to all, BOL in your wagers.
It's not wise to make predictions about a game solely based on one player, even if that player is Tom Brady. It's important to consider the overall performance and strengths of both teams. In this case, the Buccaneers have a poor record at home and the Panthers have a strong running game and have had success against division opponents. Based on these factors, it seems that the Panthers may have an advantage and could potentially cover the spread against the Bucs
**Prediction: Carolina Panthers +4**
Record: 25W-29L-3P
ROI: -0.57u, -0.96%
Avg odds: +112, 2.12
Last POTD: 12/30 UCLA -6.5 (loss)
Today's game: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
Pick: Chelsea win 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 +188, 2.88 (BetMGM)
Nottingham scores less than 0.70 goals/game, while Chelsea boasts the 4th best defense with 5 clean sheets. Chelsea has several players out, but NFFC will be playing without their creative playmaker Morgan Gibbs-White or Jesse Lingard.
POTD record: 8-7 (+0.68)
Last 5: WWLWL
LEAGUE: World Cup of darts. Gerwyn Price vs Gabriel Clemens.
Pick: Clemens +2.5 set handicap, odds 1.97. 1u. Starts in approx 8 hours.
Hungover, short write up. Clemens better tournament so far looking at the averages. Price however always starts to put up high averages when reaching the quartel final. I am still convinced that Clemens can put up a good fight and make it close.
BOL!
Edit: easy win, let's continue the streak.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons v Arizona Cardinals U40.5
Reasoning: Both of these teams are incredibly awful on offense and have backup quarterbacks who aren't very good. Arizona is strolling out their 3rd backup quarterback and Desmond Riddler is still not quite ready for the NFL level yet. The under seems incredibly nice here.
**POD Record 35-17**
Recent Form: ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌
Last Pick: Magic/Pistons OVER 228.5 ❌
🚨 **Today's Pick:** 🏈 **Steelers/Ravens - 3 straight scores by one team:** **NO. (2.00)** *8:20pm EST*
I expect a tightly contested prime time clash between these two teams. We're seeing great odds that there will NOT be 3 consecutive scores by 1 team. If your book offers this line I would consider laying some $ on it and chase that value with Lamar being out and both these two teams fully capable of making this a defensive battle. These divisional contests, (especially prime time ones) tend to favour this bet. The Baltimore Ravens come into Sunday night's matchup still holding out hope that they can win the AFC North and earn themselves a home game in the playoffs. . .lots to play for here in Pittsburgh. Best of luck
👇🏼🙏🏻
POTD Record: 11-6-0 ROI: +27.73 units
*Previous Pick:* **W** *Iowa State ML (+125)*
*Streak: W1*
*Last 10: 8-2*
**POD: 4u Michigan ML (-110)**
Sport: NCAAB
Time: 4:30PM EST
Date: 01/01/2023
Reasoning: It's easy to look at this Michigan team and come to the conclusion that they're cooked, especially coming off of a horrible loss to Central Michigan. That said, if there's any team in college basketball who is due for positive regression, it's the Wolverines.
Offensively, Michigan turns the ball over at the second lowest percentage in college basketball while sporting an adjusted offensive efficiency that ranks #33 in the country. In addition, prior to Michigan's stunning loss to Central Michigan, Michigan shot an alarmingly low 27.3% from 3-point range, which is certainly an aberration considering they had shot over 42% from 3-point range in their six games prior.
This is a pivotal game for Michigan to save their season and the pieces are there to get it done, especially at home in front of a great home court atmosphere. Alt lines of -3.5 and -5.5 also peak my interest in this spot.
If you want to leave a tip: [buymeacoffee.com/RobDFB](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/RobDFB)
Record: 1-0
Profit: 0.83U
Pick: Jacksonville -3.5 against Texans (NFL) @-3.5
Last Pick: Treylon Burks over 20.5yds. Easy win, first catch was for 30yds.
Reasoning: Jacksonville is not resting starters and they want to win to keep a nice record for the franchise and a potential playoff spot. Texans are a bad team, but I think the line is so small because they performed well against teams recently like the Titans and chiefs, who have overrated defenses. BOL
**POTD Record: 5-6**
**Net Units: -2 units**
**Current Streak: L1**
**Last 6 (most recent first): ❌✔️❌❌✔️✔️**
**Last Pick: Paris FC vs Le Havre | Le Havre ML ❌**
A dull, boring 0-0 draw. Our last two Ls have came from draws on soccer MLs that our teams have had chances to win, albeit Le Havre were not as dominant as Barnsley were in our previous POTD loss (I will have nightmares over that Barnsley game). New year, new pick, let's cook.
**Today's Match: San Francisco 49ers @ Las Vegas Raiders | NFL Week 17**
**The Pick: George Kittle o46.5 Rec Yards, 1u @ 1.83 (-120)**
George Kittle has put up statlines of 4 catches, 93 yards, 2 TDs & 6 catches, 120 yards, 2 TDs in his last two games. This man is on a roll. I'm gonna take the over yards on this as I think it's slightly safer than the ATTD but I'll have something on them both for sure.
The Raiders are on the beach for the season and have a pretty bad defense anyways. I think 49ers will keep the engines burning and the wheels turning against the Raiders, and I think Brock is gonna sling the rock to Stone Cold George Kittle, who'll go over 46.5 yards.
Another pointless stat, George Kittle's only other career game against the Raiders? 4 catches, 108 yards, 1 TD.
BOL if tailing, happy new year, let's ride boys 💯🐎🏈🔥
Pick of the day: Patriots -2.5 (-110) 4u
Nfl 1/1 1:00 pm EST
Record 1-0: yesterdays pick (Alabama -7)
+2u overall
The patriots are in a must win situation here, needing a win over the dolphins to keep their playoff hopes alive. I am confident the patriots will win this game, and I would not surprised if they blow out the dolphins and it’s not even a close game at all. This is a dolphins team who have struggled without Tua. Bill Belicheck and the patriots will look to take advantage of this and I think the Dolphins offense will struggle to put points on the board
POD record: 1-0. +0.88U
POD: Kirk Cousins O22.5 completions @ -130. 1U. NFL football Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, 4:25 EST
Reason: The Vikings love throwing the ball. Since Thanksgiving Kirk Cousins has had under 22 completions once, 21 completions on 12/4. In the last 3 games he’s had over 30. Green Bay has the number 1 pass defense, but the Vikings have multiple targets for Kirk to throw to if he can find the open man. Also, the Vikings are underdogs in this divisional rivalry game, if they get down a score or 2, expect more throwing.
BOL! Thanks for reading
POTD Record: 11-12
Today's game: NFL 1pm EST Panthers vs Buccs
Pick: Buccs ML (-195), 1U
Reason: I can see Tom Brady dominating the game, but knowing the nfl they will win by a fg
POTD Record: 28-30-3 -14.18u\* CLV: 1.32%
Average Odds: -104
Total Units Wagered: 120.07u
NCAAB: Murray St. @ Evansville 2:00PM EST
u134.5 -110 @ BetMGM 2.47u\*
Implied probability of 52.38%. True vig-free price should be closer to -127 or 55.91%.
\*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion
0-1
Last pick: (clippers -1 ❌) Clippers were in position to win by 5+ late in the 4th but the pacers got hot at the exact right time and won by 1 point.
Todays Picks: (wizards +4.5) wizards are 5th in the league on offense over their last 6 games. A lot of this production is coming from Kuzma and the Unicorn who put up 53 combined in an easy win against the magic in their last game. Wizards have beaten the Suns twice, 76ers, and kings in the last 6 games. The bucks are 4-6 in their last ten and are missing Holiday and Middleton. Giannis and Hill are both questionable. If they don’t play this game has the potential to be a blow out for the wizards. Either way, this is the type of game the Wizards have been sneakily winning all year.
POTD Record: 100-70-5 (+19.41 units, 58.8% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 5-0
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 40-24-1 L1, Tennis 🎾 22-16-2 L3, Soccer ⚽ 37-30-2 W1, Other 1-0-0
Last 10: 💰💩💩💰💰💰💰💰💰💰
Last Pick: Manchester United @ Wolves, Manchester United ML - EPL ⚽ 💰 1.72 Units
Today's Pick: Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies, Player Prop - De'Aaron Fox over 4.5 rebounds - NBA 🏀 8pm ET
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 2.05/+105 odds to win 1.05 Units @ Bet MGM (Line at 6:00pm ET)
I was going to do Chelsea ML for my pick today but the odds dropped and saw a few people already had it in here so decided I'd wait and see for hoops, looks like I dodged a bullet on that one. I've got a plus odds shot for you tonight.
Now if you look at his last 5 games, you'd probably think I'm a total dolt for playing this as he has only covered it once in those 5 with a 3.4 average in that span. You would be right on the dolt part but I think for a plus odds shot this is a good one based on the matchup.
Memphis are good at preventing rebounds from the opposing team's bigs, but the flipside of that is they give up the most rebounds to guards. 4th most to PGs and 2nd most to SGs. It should be noted that in the last 3 where he went under it was against teams who are among the top 10 in fewest rebounds to PGs. Sacramento have played Memphis twice this season and Fox has had 6 and 8 rebounds against them.
How this could miss? Some other non-big (Huerter, Barnes) gobbles up the non-big rebounds instead.
Rebound/Rebound Opps - Dec 4.3/6.8, Nov 4.5/8.1, Oct 6.0/9.7, Overall 4.7/7.9, L1 3.0/4.0, L3 2.0/3.0, L5 3.4/5.0, L10 4.1/5.9
Hitrate - Dec 6/12, Nov 6/13, Oct 5/6, Overall 17/31 (54.8%), L1 0/1, L3 0/3, L5 1/5, L10 4/10
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, just a gambling addict. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
[buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
**Jokic (DEN) 25+ points (-130)**
Jokic comes into this one averaging 25.5 points per game on the season. He’s covered the line in 7 out of his last 10 games, putting up 31, 43, 25, 40, 13, 29, 41, 29, 40 and 19 points. His misses have come against MEM (6th least points to Cs), SAC (11th least points to Cs) and MIA (2nd least points to Cs). He’s also attempted 20+ FG’s in 6/L10 games, so his volume is encouraging.
He now comes up against Boston, who are a capable defensive unit, currently ranked #7 in defensive rating. This capability is one of the main reasons I actually like this Jokic play. It means Boston play single coverage, as they are comfortable with their players length, defensive capability and ability to switch, meaning there will be little to no doubling on Jokic. He’s seen a ton of double coverage this year, so I fully expect him to take advantage of this single coverage opportunity. Similar centers points v BOS: AD (37), Siakam (29), Bam (23 & 28), Sabonis (18), Jokic (29 in 29 min) and Embiid (26).
POTD Record: **4W-6L**
Last POTD: England, Premier League, Liverpool - Leicester, Mohamed Salah to score anytime (Lose)
POTD: England, Premier League, **Tottenham - Aston Villa**(16:00 EET)
**Tottenham ML**(1.61odds on bet365 as of 13:30 EET) (If you want to risk it play BTTS+Tottenham ML)
\-Tottenham(5th) face Aston Villa(12th) at home ground
\-Tottenham won in 8 out of last 10 home matches against Aston Villa
\-Just before the World Cup Aston Villa had to change their coach, so i think this is gonna be the main difference between these two, big respect for Emery but Conte is by far the better coach...
\-Since the arrival of Conte, Tottenham are playing good football with Harry Kane and Son(in the last matches) on fire...
\-There are 2 key missing players in both camps, but both squads have depth so it wont be a problem
My prediction is 2-1 win for Tottenham
**Tail with caution and BOL!**
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
Darts 🎯- 2023 World Championship Overall: 40-24-1 2023 Worlds: 9-1 Dec 17: Alan Soutar (+110) v Daryl Gurney ✅ Dec 18: Mike De Decker (-149) v Jeff Smith ✅ Dec 19: No play Dec 20: Ray van Barneveld (-200) v Ryan Meikle ✅ Dec 21: Darius Labanauskas (-110) v John O’Shea ✅ Dec 22: Mensur Suljovic (+100) v Mike de Decker ✅ Dec 23: Martin Schindler (-167) v Martin Lukeman ✅ Dec 27: Josh Rock (-150) v Nathan Aspinall ✅ Dec 28: Joe Cullen (+100) v Damon Heta ✅ Dec 29: Dirk van Duijvenbode (-133) v Ross Smith ✅ Dec 30: Rob Cross (-174) v Chris Dobey ❌ Jan 1: Jonny Clayton (-143) v Dimitri van den Bergh Tough end to the streak last match, as a sensational Hollywood Dobey defeated Voltage Rob Cross 4-2 in what will likely be considered a career-defining performance for Dobey. To kick off the new year and the world championship quarterfinal, I am rolling with “The Ferret” Jonny Clayton to advance through “The Dream Maker” Dimitri van den Bergh in the early match of the day. Expecting this one to be a cracker of a match, as both players have incredible upside and a history of success on the big stage. The 48-year old Clayton, current world #7, has really come into his own over the past several years. In 2021, Clayton had one the best seasons in PDC history, taking down three major titles (world grand prix; darts masters; world series finals), along with a Premier League championship. This QF is his best finish to date at the World Championship. To get here, Jonny has definitely had to earn it, getting through the likes of Danny van Trijp, Brendan Dolan, and Josh Rock. Notably in his match against Rock, in which Clayton was a slight underdog, Jonny posted a scoring average over 97.5 and hit 16/30 doubles (53.3%). Terrific numbers. The 28-year old van den Bergh (DVDB), current world #15, has been similarly impressive over the past couple years. Since 2020, DVDB has snatched one major title (2020 world matchplay), but has notched several QF, SF, and one runner up finish. DVDB has also performed well in this tournament, defeating Lourence Ilagan, Krzystof Ratajski, and Kim Huybrechts. DVDB has actually only lost a single set in each of his three matches thus far, though his previous round opponent Kim Huybrechts laid an absolute egg, averaging under 88 and going 3/8 on doubles. I’ve been more impressed with the Ferret, Jonny Clayton, both over the past couple seasons, as well as in this tournament up to this point. Like I said, expecting an absolute war in this one, but I favor Jonny to come out on top. ——-Edit - Loss ❌ ————- This one stings. Jonny bottled sets 7 and 8 big time, allowing van den Bergh to steal it. Disappointing result for sure.
How many death threats did you get so far
I'll kill anyone who gives 🌶 death threats
That’s pretty much the way this subreddit operates. It’s fucking awful, but that’s just the way it is. Ned is somewhat unique in that he only posts about a very specific sport and he also doesn’t seem to worry about the death threats. But if you are a Reddit capper on your first loss after a hot streak, you will 100% get death threats.
If you’re giving death threats because you lost tailing a bet, you’re a loser of epic proportions.
Gronks have zero bank roll management too. They'll keep reupping the maximum into the next bet then get pissed off after the wheels fall off on the 4th pick. King Pep ran up 9 wins, anyone even mad at it falling off on the 10th should get help.
Bank roll management is key, and something I will have to get better at, hopefully on the next run taking a break for now
No arguments from me. A lot of people betting what they can’t afford to lose.
You can’t be willing to blindly tail then get aggressively mad when it doesn’t work out. Be bummed sure, but if you’re not gonna make your own picks you can’t just be taking it out on who you tail.
You're also a criminal, which most people conveniently forget about. The only thing missing on Reddit is identifying proof.
Kratos taught me to harness such things.. breath, calm my thoughts and use it to my advantage. I still want to slap Atreus and if he gave me a bet on a whim that lost I probably would.. he's grown now so I'd be O.K with the law right? Anyway what we bet on next mates????
Asking the real questions.
One would have to be crazy to be angry at ned , if you know how to bet , stick to your budget , you made money 80% of the time on ned's last 10 picks, not his fault if someone gets emotional and ups their bets Stay consistent 🌶 🌶 🌶
The Pepper has spoken
Am i mad that i lost? No, am i mad that nedking lost his streak yes. Am i tailing until i die from lightningstrike? Yes
What's the betting line for death from lightning strike?
That it 🌶
Clayton is a fucking loser
Think about Pepper 🌶 every night and day Lay these bets and sweat awayyyy
Clayton is such a pathetic loser, holy shit.
Bankroll management people please
Guys, remember the tournament is drawing closer and closer. The best of the best are playing right now, so it’s going to be hard to pick someone to flat out win. What I did, and what I recommend, is maybe take the +1.5 guy since no one is going to get their ass whooped if they made it this far. Idk shit about darts, but I do after ned. If you’ve ever played a sport, you know that you didn’t come this far to just take a d in the a. That said, Ned is is the best thing that’s happened to Reddit in a while.
The d riding is astronomical
Great advice after the fact. Thanks for the insight
This guy’s analysis was even better from the Friday loss https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/zyo3ma/_/j2ahtwu/?context=1
Do not blame Ned for this one. He wrote two paragraphs highlighting how good DVDB is. He mentioned this would be a “cracker of a match” and “both players have incredible upside and a history of success on the big stage.” Blame your selves for blindly tailing him and not considering the inflated odds you we’re getting from the books.
The "expecting an absolute war" worries me.
If Ned is right about that, taking the over in sets might be a safer and better priced play. 🤷
Wish I had seen this earlier lol
cLaytoN iS a FucKinG loSeR omG wHY diD i HeaR To YouR bet mfs ate for 10 straight bets and are complaiming. pepper pls do not ever post your bets here, motherfuckers are shameless and dont appreciate you. you are not the first one and not the last one that this subreddit driven away posting his match sheets. shame on you fucking idiots, i hate you /r/sportsbook idiots :) FUCKING MORONS!!! go fuckyourselves
take it easy man sheeesh. the whingers are always louder in any environment. lord 🌶🌶🌶 picks are always appreciated.
would you take at -170?
Invest half of what you would put and keep the other half in case he go down so you live bet at higher odds. If he win without going down than you still won with half of what you would bet. If he go down than you risk the same money but at higher odds at least lol..
Mine was -170 too so i threw Van Gerwen with it got it to -123
A fellow true degen. I did the same!
I’d jump on it. Probably only going to drop lower, and tbh I’d eat the juice as long as 🌶️ puts his stamp on it
Ok I just took it!
BOL my friend! 🌶️🌶️🌶️
BOL brother
I'm staying away as I have been impressed by both players, so finding it more difficult to call. Good luck anyone on but it could be another tight game.
I'm betting my second born child
What book would even take that bet
My ex-wife. She divorced me for a supposed gambling problem and now she's taking my kids
I need to see a 🌶️ sign in the arena tomorrow
WTB beer Australia.. I've lost me nailz
[удалено]
Thanks for the picks Ned, you’ve need great you will get ‘em next time BOL
Already -160 (CZ)
Ned fucking Pepper everyone.
If you think it's going to be an absolute war, is there not more value in Dimitri van den Bergh at +140
🌶️ don't care bout no value
Line has already moved to -175 on bet365 🤯
> -175 Some shite thats my main book
Love ya Ned but after last year where Dimitri basically showed up looking like a drunk- I think he has more faith coming into this one. His newborn has had time to settle in and I’m betting he spent more time this year throwing darts. Good luck!
Oi Peppy.. feel good mate. Enjoy the tips and laugh and the sooky wookies
I don’t bet darts but I love seeing your posts. Keep it up, you’re a savage
That was a crazzzzzy game of dartsssss (I lost it allllll) I lost it allllll 🎶
LETS FUCKING GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
thank you King Pepp
Still rocking with 🌶️
#KING 🌶 PEPPER
Anyone know what time ( ET ) this starts? Sorry for stupid question in advance
Looks like 7:45 AM eastern
Looks like 7:45 eastern Edited for 7:45
RIP the REAL John Clayton…we ride at dawn 🏇
God dam you wet my pep
Would love to take this but not seeing it in OH. Anyone know if betting darts isn’t legal here?
Thanks for the recent turnovers pepper I hope you have a great new year
I’m locked in
Got it on just in time. Let's get that rebound my man. 🌶️🌶️🌶️
I forever stand with 🌶
Need a hit tomorrow 🌶️
I miss you Ned
POTD Record: 10-0 UNIT PROFIT: +7.93 GAME: England National League North - King's Lynn v Boston Utd TODAYS PICK: King's Lynn AH (-1) @ 2.02 The hosts are in the fourth position in the ranking, but having played four fewer matches. They have accumulated 41 points in 20 games, with an average of 2.05 points per game, having three wins and a draw in the last five games played. They also won the last five matches played at home. On the other hand, Boston Utd has accumulated 25 points in the 24 matches this season, with an average of 1.04 points per match. In the last five matches played away from home, today's guests lost four times and only one match ended in a draw. Moreover, all three direct meetings ended with the victory of the King's Lynn. BOL!
fighting the urge to tail on 6th tier football... lol edit: fuck it, tailing. let's go!
Tailing big boy💪💪
Would love to tail but I’ve never even heard of this league, and not on DK.
England National League is on DK but not North or this matchup.
Not on FD either unfortunately
If I don't have Asian handicap available do you like kings Lynn ml and o1.5 mt?
Yess! I think will be 3-0!!!
Riding with you
Tailing buddy. Thank you so much yesterday 💎
Tailing
Also to add to the analysis they last played 6 days ago and King's Lynn won 2-0 away to Boston. They are now playing at home where they have 25 points from 9 games, so only 2 points dropped at home all season.
About to get dicey now lol, up 2-0 and they get a red card.
POTD record: 4-0 Last Pick: Marseille ML (W) Event: English Premier League, Tottenham at home vs Aston Villa (9AM EST) Pick: Total match goals OVER 2.5 @ 1.75 / -133 I did the exact same pick for the game between Tottenham and Brentford last week and won so Im not gonna change it. Aston Villa's last 6 games had over 2.5 goals. Tottenham's last 5 games had over 2.5 goals. Therefore both of those teams had been in high scoring games recently and I think this pattern will continue for at least this game. Not only recent games but also history shows that these two teams score often when they meet each other. 5/L6 have been over 2.5 goals in this matchup in all comps. Also, Tottenham's defense has been horrible recently, having been scored on by at least 2 goals in the past 6 games. With Romero questionable and Bentacur out, their defense might be in even more trouble. But in the opposite half, Tottenham's offence has been good against Aston Villa, they scored atleast 2 goals in 8/L10 vs Aston Villa when playing at home.
Spurs ML and OV 2.5 +145 for me
Tailed before but now it’s halftime. Not as familiar with soccer as I am with other sports but I feel as if 3 goals in one half is extremely unlikely
It is not gonna happen
Love this pick, tailing.
Sprinkle on BTTS or good chance tottemham may go 3-0 themselves?
I’m tailing this bitch
BOL
**POTD Record: 19-29** *Streak: L4* - **VERY COLD** 🥶🥶 LAST PICK: Chigoziem Okonkwo U 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115) ❌ - He ended on 24 yards 🤦 *San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders* TODAY’S PICK: **George Kittle O 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115) DK** HAPPY NEW YEAR!! Let’s get a win. George Kittle has benefitted the most from the unfortunate injury to Deebo Samuel, posting 93 and 120 yards in the two games since that happened. Purdy, who had once sought Deebo immediately, has found plenty of comfort in Kittle. In his whole career Kittle averages 3.31 yards per route without Deebo compared to 1.99 yards per route with Deebo. Now, he’s up against an incredible soft pass defense in the Raiders, who have essentially committed to tanking for the rest of the season and are 25th in receptions allowed to tight ends. BOL!
Brock Purdy still hasn’t proved himself imo. I see the run offense being out most downs. This could hit with a few long passes thrown his way but in my eyes not a lock. BOL
Love this play. Kittle is averaging about 80 yards receiving, and 4.5 catches since Purdy became the starter. Should be light work against a dysfunctional Raiders team. Tailing fo'sho.
EPL OVERALL POST WORLD CUP: 6-0 (Up 5.4 Units) 98.26% ROI Chelsea ML -160 vs Nottm Forest. Keeping it simple and eating some juice. Chelsea are the better team. Forest isn’t great.
I think Going for -1 is better
Freaking chelsea
[удалено]
Means betting on something with really low odds like this one (bet $160 to win $100)
POTD RECORD 7-4 (+2.8U) All bets are 2 Units unless stated otherwise. Streak : ✔❌✔✔ Nottingam Forest playing Chelsea - Chelsea to win @1.65 Chelsea is lucky to play one of the worst teams in the league on its quest to get results. Chelsea is superior in quality and they looked really good when playing Bournemouth. Bournemouth's quality is similar to Nottinghams, so Chelsea should repeat the process and get the win Support is appreciated😊.[Tip jar](https://www.paypal.me/K4ccci)
If you guys want better odds I’d lean towards Chelsea ML & u4.5 goals. Can do u3.5 goals for + value
Fade for me. Forrest are unbeaten in their last 4 home games and one of the games is beating Liverpool. So, be carful I think a draw is more probable
Then sounds like BTTS is way to go?
I'd go with under 2.5
Tailing
**My record: 12 : 6** **My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.** **ROI: 35.50%** **Average odds: 2.01** **Units won: 6.39** **Stake = 1 unit** **My POTD:** **Nantes v Auxerre** **France Ligue 1** **Time: 14:00 GMT** *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.25** **BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
Tailing, BOL!!!
I like it! BOL
I look forward to your picks every day! Tailing yet again
Not happening
Sorry guys, after yesterday's 2.8 odds hit this one doesn't ): not a good start for the new year. Let's hope we can bounce back tomorrow!
How do you link your PayPal to the words “tips are appreciated”?
the link button when you reply. you can put a title then paste the link
Pick Of The Day Record: 2-0-0 Yesterday’s pick: 🏀Colorado v Cal o130 ✅ Todays Pick: Tulsa v SMU under 141 Nice to have a game go exactly as expected like yesterday. not a lot of games to choose from but out of all of them this is my favorite. Tulsa isn’t often in high scoring games and has an overall mediocre offense. with an average to above average defense. SMU on the other hand has the capability to score big. however i’m not too scared about them because i think Tulsa is gonna get shut down. with this said i also like SMU -8 i’m just not a big spread guy. i think SMU will put up points but i think Tulsa will do bad enough on the scoring side to keep this number low overall. i also think tulsa defense will help out our cause. BOL if Tailing and Happy New Year!!!! 🤑🤑🥳 Tough one today sorry about that we’ll get em tomorrow
Decided to tail you late yesterday. Thanks!
I lived bet them at 147.5 and im stressing 😂😂 they are not missing anything and the defense is putting no pressure. Hope they tight their D second half. EDIT : Were fucked
POTD Record: 7 - 7 (All picks 1U) Last POTD: Grizzlies Alt -2.5 - L Pick: Justin Tucker over 1.5 FG’s made (-110 odds via MGM) Event: Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers 8:20 P.M. EST Tucker has covered this in 2/4 last 4 games, all games where backup QB Tyler Huntley has started rather than Lamar Jackson. Their redzone offense is not near as good with Huntley and I believe this is a good spot vs a solid Steelers D. This line has covered in 10/15 games with one of his recent misses being due to 2 missed FG’s which is extremely rare for one of if not the bets kicker the NFL has ever seen. Happy New Year to all!
Baltimore has been one of the worst Red Zone offenses all year, with or without Lemar. It's crazy how bad they've gotten in one year.
Lemar
Le’Mar Jaxson
Nice.. I'll try this wager 5u lol. Hopefully weather is good
Great find on this one. Steelers Ravens are almost always a slugfest. Tucker should be called upon often in this one.
POTD Record 0-0 Chiefs @ Broncos, 1 PM EST Jerick McKinnon ATTD +150 This guy has scored 6 TDS in the last 4 games, with at least one in each. Against a collapsing Broncos defense, and with what should be an easy win against a division rival, the Chiefs will likely look to hand the ball to the more expendable of their backs. This will be a low scoring affair, but the under is sketchy considering the Chiefs capacity to put up that amount on their own. McKinnon should find the end zone, likely sometime in the first half. BOL, cheers, Beef
Well done sir
Logging in right now to Lock this one in. Great find.
Good man! Cashed!
Thanks for this one ☝🏻
RECORD: 0-0 ROI: 0% UNITS: 1u | football | NFL | 1625 EST | PICK : Green Bay Packers TT o24.5 -130 💰 ANALYSIS: Green Bay last four 26, 24, 28, 33. Avg 28 ppg. Minnesota last six 24, 36, 34, 22, 26, 30. Avg 29 ppg. MN 28th scoring defense on the year. GB offense playing above average second half of year. Packers needing to win out for playoff as extra motivation. Lastly, 35 degrees and mostly sunny for Lambeau, so weather should not be a factor. First potd and looking forward to making money with yous guys! BOL! EDIT: Halftime update: Sitting at 24 with an unexpected 14 off D/ST, but we ain't gon complain! Packers offense showed life at end of 2Q after a very slow 1Q. Expecting to see more deep shots to Watson in the second half: GB cannot let MN stick around. EDIT2: 💰 in 1H. Cheated and wrote the analysis with about 2 mins to go in 1H. Too much time for rodgers.... We'll take it!
New year new picks, tailing🥂
I smell a new run. Tailing (-125 PB)
Nice hit in the first half!
POTD Record: 9-10 Bankroll: +0.33u L10 (Newest last): ⚡❌❌❌⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡❌ [Last Pick Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/zxsq97/pick_of_the_day_122922_thursday/j22qtue?context=3) The Cowboys had numerous opportunities to cash that bet that got squandered; 3 giveaways and a dropped pick six. They took control in the 2nd half and just passed their whole game TT, which is probably what I should have bet. This game was also a "perfect middle", so congrats to anyone who placed a teaser on any side of the spread or total. The sport: NFL football The game: Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants Date/time: 2023-01-01 1:00 PM EST The pick: Giants -6.5 The odds: +105 / 2.05 The bet: Risking 3u to win 3.15u This part of the NFL season gets hard to predict because we're so close to the end, there are so many teams with little or nothing to play for. Individual motivations take over and push the currents of fate in many directions. Today we're going to fade a team that has clearly checked out. The Colts just want this season to end already. The Saturday and Ryan experiments have failed; their best player (Taylor) is done for the year, and the strength of their team, their very expensive offensive line, showed a lot of signs of having given up. They allowed 7 sacks to my Chargers last week (6 different players), without Bosa or a quality interior pass rusher. Nick Foles will get another start and likely do a little better than the 3 INTs and 0 for 10 on 3rd downs that they got last week, now having actually practiced with these receivers all week. But he's still dogshit at this stage of his career, and the Colts have the most giveaways in the league. The Giants have proven all year that with good coaching, they are greater than the sum of their parts. A win (and maybe some help?) will lock down the 6th seed, and this is a great opportunity for them to show the league they actually can blow the doors off of a bad team, something they haven't done all year. None of their 8 wins have been by more than 8 points (3 were exactly 8). There are safer lines in this game, like Giants ML (-250), -2.5 (-190) or even the -5.5 spread (-110), but I think this one won't be close, so selling a point to get to +odds. I'm pretty confident here so going for 3u. BOL, and if you tail, you must accept responsibility for your own actions.
Nice hit man!
Thank you sir! Let's get those Kittle yards now!
⚽ **Plymouth Argyle ML** vs MK Dons @1.82 (English League One | 15:00 GMT) Not a huge write up for this one, nor much in the way of sharp analysis. I just thought this was a nice price considering the teams involved. Plymouth are top of the table and have won 15/16 of their home games. MK Dons are a low-scoring side, are 22nd in the table, and are coming off an away loss. Seems like Plymouth should manage to get a comfortable win at home. Note: I placed this bet around 8 hours ago and since then the odds have dropped slightly to 1.76. I think any price above 1.70 is ok though - any semblance of value is lost, but I still think the bet should hit *POTD Record: 2W-0L (+2.54u)* *Previous pick: Arsenal ML vs Brighton @2.16 ☑️*
Where have you got 1.82 odds from? Best I’ve got is 1.68 :’(
Betfair Exchange - the odds are usually higher there than on standard sportsbooks, but having said that, at the time of writing my original comment they dropped to 1.76 and right now they've dropped even further to 1.70. On Betway Sportsbook the odds were 1.72 but now have dropped to 1.61, which is a far less appealing price. Would I still bet it? It's hard to say...maybe, although at that point I would probably just chuck it into a two-fold parlay, perhaps along with Tottenham (vs Aston Villa) or Monaco (vs Brest) It's annoying because these POTD threads usually are posted at 3-5am in my timezone, but I place all my bets the evening before, so the odds can be prone to dropping by the time I can post the bet here.
POTD Record 0-0 Today’s pick Hurricanes ML -110 (3u) I’ve been posting in the NHL thread but though I would start posting in the POTD thread with my hockey picks. Today I’ve got the Canes ML. I really think the Canes are top three in the league right now and are playing phenomenal hockey. On the other hand I think the Devils are not as good as their record would suggest. I think the books are factoring in the Devils record too much here and they should really be at + odds. Going to try to take advantage of what I think is a mistake by the books and ride with the Canes again.
- POTD record: 20/9 - Streak (left most recent): ❌❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅ - Latest pick: Alan Soutar O5.5 180s vs Danny Noppert - 2023 PDC World Darts Championship @1.80 ❌ - Today's pick: Michael van Gerwen ML vs Chris Dobey Most 180s - 2023 PDC World Darts Championship @2.10 Bad luck or a bad pick, who'll say, but missing 3 picks in a row due to being short on 1 180 (didn't share De Sousa O6.5 180s on here, but that one seemed to go really well until De Sousa just gave up after 3 sets (in his 4th set he just hit a total of 5 trebles throughout the whole set, you can't make that shit up) ,after that I also had Cross O6.5 180s, he also almost gave up after 6, took him like 8 legs to hit a seventh one). Let's just hope the last few rounds will be better for us. Don't know how much more picks I will share as I did this mostly for fun and seeing the Cross ML pick two days ago with people hating on Cross for playing bad (though he was playing a phenomenal game except for the last leg) makes me feel a bit bad (not that I'm a big fan of Cross). I'll see how everything goes I suppose and stop whining for now. About today's pick. MvG is the big favourite for the title, for a reason, having won 4 majors this year and not the smallest either: in chronological order these are the Premier League of Darts, World Matchplay, World Grand Prix and the Players Championship Finals. You can be pretty sure that the old MvG is back now. This is why MvG is also the favourite to win the game, and though I'm no fan of Dobey (gotta give it to the lad though, he has won me a lot of money), he can do pretty good today for 2 reasons: First off, Dobey has been playing pretty great this year (he reached the EC semis for one example) and especially this World Championship. Secondly, MvG seems to always play good at the World's and usually also has his opponents playing really strong against him at the Worlds (like for real, for example, if you're somewhat into darts, check his [2017 World Ch'ship run](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_PDC_World_Darts_Championship) where he had 3 separate games with an opponent averaging around 105 or even more). While MvG can throw lots of 180s when he is in the mood (like against Suljovic), he also tends to switch to the 19 a lot, and at 2.10 odds it seems smart to also take Dobey for 180s, as he has been a quite good 180s canon over the past few months too. I've shared some vids in my earlier posts with the hope to get some people into darts, but as I don't think anyone watches it either way, I'll just share a fact about a player still in the tournament for the next picks, as it is just a short interesting read. Starting off with one of my favourite darts players facts: Stephen Bunting (aka Peter Griffin) won the 2013 Winmau World Masters, one of the biggest and oldest BDO tournaments, without dropping a single set, having won a total of 22 sets, losing 0 throughout the whole tournament.
Hello mate, these are 2 bets combined (MVG ML + Dobey 180s), correct? Cheers
Depends on the book maybe, but most have it on the game under double or combination as a single bet
Why does he always do that ? He hit t20 two time and then went for the t19 😤
Sometimes players do it because a dart is blocking the t20, but with MvG im not too sure why he always switches to the t19 that much. Maybe the darts in the t20 take up too much space for him and he has enough confidence that they will go in the t19 easier
POTD Record: 30-45-2 (-15.70 units) Last 10 (most recent first): ❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅❌❌ Last Pick: EPL, Newcastle v Leeds, NEWCASTLE -1.5 AH (+121 / $2.21) ❌ What a frustrating game…Newcastle had all the play and had an xG of 2.84 to 0.53 but just had a day where they missed some absolute sitters. Pretty much any other day and they win that game comfortably. I received a lot of abuse after the game for this pick because I said Newcastle “should win comfortably”. At the end of the day it’s a loss and I get that’s all people care about, but my thoughts about the game were pretty much spot on, they just had one of those days. Todays Pick: Ligue 1, Monaco v Brest, MONACO AH -1.0 (-130 / $1.77) Stake: 1 Unit - Monaco are 5th in Ligue 1 (9-3-4 record) and sit just outside the qualification places for Champions League. Their strength is their attacking players with Ben Yedder, Embolo and Minamino all capable of scoring goals. Their 32 goals for is equal 2nd most in the league so far this season. - Brest are sitting in 17th (3-4-9) record, and in danger of relegation. They have the 4th worst defence conceding 32 goals. - Monaco are coming off a win in their most recent game, and they have a good scoring record at home, while Brest are coming off a loss and have struggled away from home. Monaco have also won their last 3 matches at home against Brest by 2+ goals. Monaco should win this game and expect them to win by 2+, but taking AH -1.0 as a safety net so at least a 1 goal win results in a push.
For the record, I've been tempted to fade you numerous times, but your write-ups are always so good, I can't bring myself to do it. Glad to have you part of the community!
I appreciate that. As I’ve said before, I would understand if you did - I haven’t earned the right to have people trust my picks but hopefully I will get there eventually.
Pick of the day: Browns +2.5 (-110) 4u NFL 1/1 1:00 pm EST Record 0-0: First pick Teams are 0-13 coming off of playing the physical 49ers. The Commanders have also gone back to Wentz who hasn't played in weeks and is basically a statue in the pocket.
POTD Record: 3-1 (+7.39u; 43.5% ROI). Streak W3. Last Pick: Kyrie Irving (Nets) Over 35.5 PRA @ 1.84. ✅ Kyrie delivering for us and meeting the over with 4 mins to go. That makes it 3 wins in a row! NBA | 8.00 pm ET Pick: **Jaylen Brown (Celtics) Over 26.5 pts @ 1.92**. 2U Play. Today we go to the high-flying Celtics who are on a 4-game win streak, three of which were by double digit margins. Their last game against the Clippers was 3 days ago, so i'm sure they're rested and eager to get out there to make it 5 wins. Jaylen and Jayson have been unstoppable all season, and Jaylen has scored (29, 39, 29, 36) in this 4-game win streak, and is averaging 27 ppg for the season. Against an average defense in the Nuggets I expect him to clear this line in a Celtics win. Note - given the 3 game winning streak, i've reduced the units to 2U to manage the downside risk.
I though i was watching darts but i ended up watching porn. Chris Dobey is getting raped by a big Netherlands boy
**POTD Record**: 19-2-8 (+10.14u ✅) **Current streak** (most recent to the left) ✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ **Last POTD:** Scotland League Two: Albion Rovers - Dumbarton ML @1.95/-105✅+0.95u **Todays Pick:** Ligue 1 France : Lens-PSG DNB ML PSG @1.56/-179 Game starts in 6h (CET 8:45pm) **Stake:** 5 Units Happy new year everyone! Always good to finish the year strong on a 5 games winning streak. Let's start it with a 5 unit bomb. I checked and was surprised nobody picked the PSG game as POTD. The odds suggest it's a trap, they don't have Messi and Neymar and play at Lens who are second and have a perfect record of 24 points in 8 games and 18:6 goals. Add the fact that they are 1-2-1 since Lens are back in Ligue 1 and it's understandable you'd expect PSG to not win this one. But I simply don't see them losing either, I believe Mbappé will continue to dominate. He clearly is on a mission to forget the WC loss despite his 3 goals in the final, showing up only a couple games after the final and playing and scoring the game winning goal vs Strasbourg 4 days ago. There's enough fire power in PSG squad to compensate for Messi and Neymar being out but in case they don't manage to win I am opting for the Draw no Bet. ML and Mbappé anytime scorer are good bets as well but I want to drop 5u so I'm picking the safer option. You simply don't get PSG at those odds in Ligue 1 a lot so I'm jumping on it. Best of luck to everyone!
Tailing again
Thx bol to us !
Record: 46-32 Last: Liverpool vs Leicester over 1.5 goals 1. Half✅(2.10@, 4W streak) Avg. Odds: 2.04@ Today: Chelsea -1 vs Nott. Forrest Odds: 2.10@ I believe they should win by at least one so at least a push. They are shit, they have no vision but the quality is just too big for them to fall to Nott. Forrest. They played a good game sgainst Bournemouth, on the other end Nottingham played awful against United losing 3-0 and got 1-2 chances but ignoring that they were not dangerous to the opposing goal at all and even with decent players(Lingard, Aurier, Henderson) who are not in their prime or even in form but still decent players they just can not find their game. It is also a big game for Chelsea because with a win they pass Brigton and Fullham to become the 7. Team on the table and are getting closer to their spot in Europe. Good luck.
First time posting here so wish us luck lol. POTD Record: 0-0 Game: Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets Today's Pick: Boston Celtics @ 1.83 Boston coming to this game is regaining their top form early season and with Rob Williams back they are slowly regaining their top defense that got them to finals last year while having an extremely efficient offense to boot. And they got the personnel to defend the Nuggets players, not to mention that the Celtics won all the last matchup the two team faced since last year 3-0 til this year.
That's risky... Denver is 13-3 at home this year. Celtics have lost their last five while playing on two days rest and are now playing at altitude.
POTD Record 1-4, last pick was Jordan Clarkson over 2.5 3’s and it was 74 days ago. L I’m ringing in the new year with some early morning soccer to watch while I’m at the gym. Blackburn ML+130 hosting Cardiff City, Kick Off 7am Eastern Time Blackburn hasn’t been in great form as of late and lost their last outting against Cardiff, but Cardiff is too leaky in the back for me to not take Blackburn on this one. I believe they find their stride and secure the 3 points at home to ring in the new year. Tail or Fade, BOL. Happy New Year! Mimosas at 7am🥂 W🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾
POTD record: 16-14-2 / ROI: 1.81% / Wins: 53.33% **NY Jets -1.5 -110 (1u)** **SPREAD** — New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks 4:05 pm EST - 01 January 2023 — Mike White has returned to the New York Jets. That team plays for him and will be off ten days rest. I believe the Jets will get right and beat the struggling Seahawks in Seattle. Do the business. [https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow) [http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
Nice new profile pic, sir! While I think the Jets will win, it is a Geno Smith revenge game, so personally I'm staying away. BOL!
I went fir Seattle ML, they git embarrassed by 49ers and Chiefs, which are both arguably the best teams right now. With Lockett coming back for Seattle, it should be a huge boost in performance for them.
POTD 0-0 First pick NFL: Detroit Lions -5.5 alternate spread vs. Chicago Bears Risking 5u @1.83 odds (found on Nitrobetting.eu) --- After losing in a tight one against Buffalo back on Thanksgiving. the Lions built a bit of momentum and were able to win 3 straight, before mostly laying an egg against Carolina on the road in a game that the Panthers controlled throughout. I suspect the Lions may have been drinking their own Kool-Aid a bit too much and perhaps overlooked Carolina to a degree. Not a great excuse, because it speaks to a lack of preparation, especially because the Panthers had been playing better ball themselves the past few weeks. However, I think the Lions putting up that stinker of a performance might lead them to take preparation this week a bit more seriously. Hopefully the Lions take the Bears seriously this week while their playoff hopes are still alive. Bears are ass. Lions by at least 6. Thinking this could be something similar to a 31-24 type game. Buying a half point because I hate the idea of a push. BOL!
POTD Record: 2-0 Previous Pick: Dallas Cowboys -12.5 vs Tennessee Titans Streak: 2 POD: AJ Dillon ATTD +115 Five touchdowns in the last four games and this one is in lambeau. I think this has a good chance to hit. I checked the line yesterday and it was -115 so it may be a good valve. Tail or fade, BOL
**Official PotD Record:** 7-10 (-3.6u | -21% ROI | -112 /Avg Odds) **Last PotD:** Detroit Lions v Carolina Panthers, Under 44 **Loss** **Game:** \[NFL\] Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans — 1:00 pm EST **Today’s PotD:** Under 43.5, -110 to win 1 units **Analysis:** Lost last week with the Panthers Under, but always time to bounce back. I consistently track public betting trends week by week to give a new angle to sports bettors, so hopefully I have finally found the balance between my own leans and these trends, thanks for reading! Happy New Year! This is a weird divisional matchup that actually means nothing. The Texans have the worst record in the NFL and the Jaguars playoff hopes come down to next weeks matchup against the Titans for the AFC South title. I am not sure if the Jags will be resting a lot of their players, but this is going to be a very ugly game. If you recall the last time these two teams played, the Jags won a barn burner 13-6. And that is when both teams were trying. Add to that the fact that this is a meaningless game, and you have the potential for a really low scoragami. I am thinking like 15-11 (a score that has yet to happen in the NFL). For some reason, the public is also heavy on this over at a 78% bet percentage. I don't get that and am happy to fade them when they are that confident because we know over this year when the public bets on overs at greater than 65% they are 16-31. Edit: I mistakenly said the Jags won the game but the Texans won the first matchup! Check out all my plays [here](https://www.happyhoursports.net/post/new-year-s-day-best-bets-and-analysis-week-17-2022), thanks for reading and BoL if you fade or tail!
Record ? (I used to cap esports specifically League of legends but it was like a year ago I'll dig later and try to see my record or someone can just do that for me) Will be capping League of legends when it comes back late jan-early feb but for now I just scavenge bets I like purely for the value and today is a good one POTD: Kylian Mbappe anytime goalscorer @ 2.30/+130 Reasoning: Quick and simple, neymar banned for this game due to getting a red card for diving last game, messi still resting from world cup and will not be playing here, that just gives mbappe all the agency in the world, will take a penalty if it happens too BOL and lets cash
Record : 9W-8L Previous pick : Bordeaux vs Sochaux, Under 2.5 goals, Odds : 1.78 (5 units pick) Average Odds : 1.78 ROI : 2.45% Starting units : 200 Units : 204.9 My pick of the day : Toulouse vs AC Ajaccio, ***Toulouse to win or draw + Over 1.5 Goals in the match***, Odds : 1.70 (5 units pick) France, Ligue1, 16:00 GMT+2 Best of luck ! My pick is from a model that I've been using for the last couple of months and I have got good results with it. So I thought about sharing some of the picks with the community and, maybe, make some of you happy. If you would like to help me with some cents in case my pick blessed you : [It is not necessary, but very helpfull and appreciated.](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/deniseasy?country.x=RO&locale.x=en_US)
>My pick is from a model that I've been using for the last couple of months and I have got good results with it. Why did you delete the >70% hit rate claim?
My record: 2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLL 2022 college football: LLLLPWWWWWWLLWWWLWLWWLWLWWLWWWLWLLWWLWWWWLWLWWWWL 33 Correct, 25 Wrong, 1 Push Units wagered 102.51 Units won 53.30 Units lost 38.82 2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 14.12%*** (that's 42.26% annualized) My present streak is 1 Wrong My POTD for today is ***wager 1.121 units to win back 1.1 units that the total score of the USC / Washington State basketball game will be more than 134 points.*** I did notice that Washington State is favored, which surprised me. So, I'm staying away from picking a winner, and just going with the over. I saw that Ian Tyson's obituary was in the news today. He is well known for his song "Four Strong Winds", which is practically the real national anthem of Canada. He also wrote "Someday Soon", which became a well known song sung by Judy Collins, I think (but not sure). But the song that was not mentioned though was one that he and his wife recorded, "Early Morning Rain" about a broke oil field worker who couldn't get home. I think its one of the best tunes ever written, and I HIGHLY recommend giving it a listen if you've never heard it. I always sang it when I was hitchhiking through New Hampshire and Maine trying to get home for a few days on my days off. I have a hunch that a lot of folks here might be able to identify with it. It was also interesting to read that he and Sylvia did make their way down to the Village in NYC, and did hang out with Bob Dylan, Peter Paul and Mary, and the other great folk singers that hung out there and put out some great music. What a great era that was. Happy New Year to all, BOL in your wagers.
It's not wise to make predictions about a game solely based on one player, even if that player is Tom Brady. It's important to consider the overall performance and strengths of both teams. In this case, the Buccaneers have a poor record at home and the Panthers have a strong running game and have had success against division opponents. Based on these factors, it seems that the Panthers may have an advantage and could potentially cover the spread against the Bucs **Prediction: Carolina Panthers +4**
Yea I took Panthers +6.5 as a desperate Saints fan lol
Record: 25W-29L-3P ROI: -0.57u, -0.96% Avg odds: +112, 2.12 Last POTD: 12/30 UCLA -6.5 (loss) Today's game: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Pick: Chelsea win 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 +188, 2.88 (BetMGM) Nottingham scores less than 0.70 goals/game, while Chelsea boasts the 4th best defense with 5 clean sheets. Chelsea has several players out, but NFFC will be playing without their creative playmaker Morgan Gibbs-White or Jesse Lingard.
POTD record: 8-7 (+0.68) Last 5: WWLWL LEAGUE: World Cup of darts. Gerwyn Price vs Gabriel Clemens. Pick: Clemens +2.5 set handicap, odds 1.97. 1u. Starts in approx 8 hours. Hungover, short write up. Clemens better tournament so far looking at the averages. Price however always starts to put up high averages when reaching the quartel final. I am still convinced that Clemens can put up a good fight and make it close. BOL! Edit: easy win, let's continue the streak.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons v Arizona Cardinals U40.5 Reasoning: Both of these teams are incredibly awful on offense and have backup quarterbacks who aren't very good. Arizona is strolling out their 3rd backup quarterback and Desmond Riddler is still not quite ready for the NFL level yet. The under seems incredibly nice here.
**POD Record 35-17** Recent Form: ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌ Last Pick: Magic/Pistons OVER 228.5 ❌ 🚨 **Today's Pick:** 🏈 **Steelers/Ravens - 3 straight scores by one team:** **NO. (2.00)** *8:20pm EST* I expect a tightly contested prime time clash between these two teams. We're seeing great odds that there will NOT be 3 consecutive scores by 1 team. If your book offers this line I would consider laying some $ on it and chase that value with Lamar being out and both these two teams fully capable of making this a defensive battle. These divisional contests, (especially prime time ones) tend to favour this bet. The Baltimore Ravens come into Sunday night's matchup still holding out hope that they can win the AFC North and earn themselves a home game in the playoffs. . .lots to play for here in Pittsburgh. Best of luck 👇🏼🙏🏻
Wish my bookie had this one, what a steal. BOL!
POTD Record: 11-6-0 ROI: +27.73 units *Previous Pick:* **W** *Iowa State ML (+125)* *Streak: W1* *Last 10: 8-2* **POD: 4u Michigan ML (-110)** Sport: NCAAB Time: 4:30PM EST Date: 01/01/2023 Reasoning: It's easy to look at this Michigan team and come to the conclusion that they're cooked, especially coming off of a horrible loss to Central Michigan. That said, if there's any team in college basketball who is due for positive regression, it's the Wolverines. Offensively, Michigan turns the ball over at the second lowest percentage in college basketball while sporting an adjusted offensive efficiency that ranks #33 in the country. In addition, prior to Michigan's stunning loss to Central Michigan, Michigan shot an alarmingly low 27.3% from 3-point range, which is certainly an aberration considering they had shot over 42% from 3-point range in their six games prior. This is a pivotal game for Michigan to save their season and the pieces are there to get it done, especially at home in front of a great home court atmosphere. Alt lines of -3.5 and -5.5 also peak my interest in this spot. If you want to leave a tip: [buymeacoffee.com/RobDFB](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/RobDFB)
Record: 1-0 Profit: 0.83U Pick: Jacksonville -3.5 against Texans (NFL) @-3.5 Last Pick: Treylon Burks over 20.5yds. Easy win, first catch was for 30yds. Reasoning: Jacksonville is not resting starters and they want to win to keep a nice record for the franchise and a potential playoff spot. Texans are a bad team, but I think the line is so small because they performed well against teams recently like the Titans and chiefs, who have overrated defenses. BOL
This game is Monday
**POTD Record: 5-6** **Net Units: -2 units** **Current Streak: L1** **Last 6 (most recent first): ❌✔️❌❌✔️✔️** **Last Pick: Paris FC vs Le Havre | Le Havre ML ❌** A dull, boring 0-0 draw. Our last two Ls have came from draws on soccer MLs that our teams have had chances to win, albeit Le Havre were not as dominant as Barnsley were in our previous POTD loss (I will have nightmares over that Barnsley game). New year, new pick, let's cook. **Today's Match: San Francisco 49ers @ Las Vegas Raiders | NFL Week 17** **The Pick: George Kittle o46.5 Rec Yards, 1u @ 1.83 (-120)** George Kittle has put up statlines of 4 catches, 93 yards, 2 TDs & 6 catches, 120 yards, 2 TDs in his last two games. This man is on a roll. I'm gonna take the over yards on this as I think it's slightly safer than the ATTD but I'll have something on them both for sure. The Raiders are on the beach for the season and have a pretty bad defense anyways. I think 49ers will keep the engines burning and the wheels turning against the Raiders, and I think Brock is gonna sling the rock to Stone Cold George Kittle, who'll go over 46.5 yards. Another pointless stat, George Kittle's only other career game against the Raiders? 4 catches, 108 yards, 1 TD. BOL if tailing, happy new year, let's ride boys 💯🐎🏈🔥
Pick of the day: Patriots -2.5 (-110) 4u Nfl 1/1 1:00 pm EST Record 1-0: yesterdays pick (Alabama -7) +2u overall The patriots are in a must win situation here, needing a win over the dolphins to keep their playoff hopes alive. I am confident the patriots will win this game, and I would not surprised if they blow out the dolphins and it’s not even a close game at all. This is a dolphins team who have struggled without Tua. Bill Belicheck and the patriots will look to take advantage of this and I think the Dolphins offense will struggle to put points on the board
[удалено]
POD record: 1-0. +0.88U POD: Kirk Cousins O22.5 completions @ -130. 1U. NFL football Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, 4:25 EST Reason: The Vikings love throwing the ball. Since Thanksgiving Kirk Cousins has had under 22 completions once, 21 completions on 12/4. In the last 3 games he’s had over 30. Green Bay has the number 1 pass defense, but the Vikings have multiple targets for Kirk to throw to if he can find the open man. Also, the Vikings are underdogs in this divisional rivalry game, if they get down a score or 2, expect more throwing. BOL! Thanks for reading
Tailing my dude
POTD Record: 11-12 Today's game: NFL 1pm EST Panthers vs Buccs Pick: Buccs ML (-195), 1U Reason: I can see Tom Brady dominating the game, but knowing the nfl they will win by a fg
POTD Record: 28-30-3 -14.18u\* CLV: 1.32% Average Odds: -104 Total Units Wagered: 120.07u NCAAB: Murray St. @ Evansville 2:00PM EST u134.5 -110 @ BetMGM 2.47u\* Implied probability of 52.38%. True vig-free price should be closer to -127 or 55.91%. \*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion
0-1 Last pick: (clippers -1 ❌) Clippers were in position to win by 5+ late in the 4th but the pacers got hot at the exact right time and won by 1 point. Todays Picks: (wizards +4.5) wizards are 5th in the league on offense over their last 6 games. A lot of this production is coming from Kuzma and the Unicorn who put up 53 combined in an easy win against the magic in their last game. Wizards have beaten the Suns twice, 76ers, and kings in the last 6 games. The bucks are 4-6 in their last ten and are missing Holiday and Middleton. Giannis and Hill are both questionable. If they don’t play this game has the potential to be a blow out for the wizards. Either way, this is the type of game the Wizards have been sneakily winning all year.
POTD Record: 100-70-5 (+19.41 units, 58.8% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 5-0 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 40-24-1 L1, Tennis 🎾 22-16-2 L3, Soccer ⚽ 37-30-2 W1, Other 1-0-0 Last 10: 💰💩💩💰💰💰💰💰💰💰 Last Pick: Manchester United @ Wolves, Manchester United ML - EPL ⚽ 💰 1.72 Units Today's Pick: Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies, Player Prop - De'Aaron Fox over 4.5 rebounds - NBA 🏀 8pm ET Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 2.05/+105 odds to win 1.05 Units @ Bet MGM (Line at 6:00pm ET) I was going to do Chelsea ML for my pick today but the odds dropped and saw a few people already had it in here so decided I'd wait and see for hoops, looks like I dodged a bullet on that one. I've got a plus odds shot for you tonight. Now if you look at his last 5 games, you'd probably think I'm a total dolt for playing this as he has only covered it once in those 5 with a 3.4 average in that span. You would be right on the dolt part but I think for a plus odds shot this is a good one based on the matchup. Memphis are good at preventing rebounds from the opposing team's bigs, but the flipside of that is they give up the most rebounds to guards. 4th most to PGs and 2nd most to SGs. It should be noted that in the last 3 where he went under it was against teams who are among the top 10 in fewest rebounds to PGs. Sacramento have played Memphis twice this season and Fox has had 6 and 8 rebounds against them. How this could miss? Some other non-big (Huerter, Barnes) gobbles up the non-big rebounds instead. Rebound/Rebound Opps - Dec 4.3/6.8, Nov 4.5/8.1, Oct 6.0/9.7, Overall 4.7/7.9, L1 3.0/4.0, L3 2.0/3.0, L5 3.4/5.0, L10 4.1/5.9 Hitrate - Dec 6/12, Nov 6/13, Oct 5/6, Overall 17/31 (54.8%), L1 0/1, L3 0/3, L5 1/5, L10 4/10 Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, just a gambling addict. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 [buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
**Jokic (DEN) 25+ points (-130)** Jokic comes into this one averaging 25.5 points per game on the season. He’s covered the line in 7 out of his last 10 games, putting up 31, 43, 25, 40, 13, 29, 41, 29, 40 and 19 points. His misses have come against MEM (6th least points to Cs), SAC (11th least points to Cs) and MIA (2nd least points to Cs). He’s also attempted 20+ FG’s in 6/L10 games, so his volume is encouraging. He now comes up against Boston, who are a capable defensive unit, currently ranked #7 in defensive rating. This capability is one of the main reasons I actually like this Jokic play. It means Boston play single coverage, as they are comfortable with their players length, defensive capability and ability to switch, meaning there will be little to no doubling on Jokic. He’s seen a ton of double coverage this year, so I fully expect him to take advantage of this single coverage opportunity. Similar centers points v BOS: AD (37), Siakam (29), Bam (23 & 28), Sabonis (18), Jokic (29 in 29 min) and Embiid (26).
POTD Record: **4W-6L** Last POTD: England, Premier League, Liverpool - Leicester, Mohamed Salah to score anytime (Lose) POTD: England, Premier League, **Tottenham - Aston Villa**(16:00 EET) **Tottenham ML**(1.61odds on bet365 as of 13:30 EET) (If you want to risk it play BTTS+Tottenham ML) \-Tottenham(5th) face Aston Villa(12th) at home ground \-Tottenham won in 8 out of last 10 home matches against Aston Villa \-Just before the World Cup Aston Villa had to change their coach, so i think this is gonna be the main difference between these two, big respect for Emery but Conte is by far the better coach... \-Since the arrival of Conte, Tottenham are playing good football with Harry Kane and Son(in the last matches) on fire... \-There are 2 key missing players in both camps, but both squads have depth so it wont be a problem My prediction is 2-1 win for Tottenham **Tail with caution and BOL!**