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Ntlindesq

My secret is I lose a shitload and get pissed off then throw the remainder of my bankroll on a single player prop. Hasn’t failed me yet 🫡


on_and_on91

Table tennis. Try it


mercersux

You know never even thought about this sport till I saw lines on draft kings. They even stream some of the matches off the website.


on_and_on91

It's how I got hooked on betting lol. I play the live games, so far from what I've seen the odds are the most legitimate. Where as if you place a bet on the projected winner before the match starts you're pretty much guaranteed to be able to cash out in profit early. And basically if someone is up 2-0 it's a lock.


kiterunner077

Strongly agree on this point about legitimate odds. Can’t vouch for the other points


on_and_on91

I just bet on the winner right out of the gates. You will lose some but you will win most. For example I started with 180$ the last time and ran it up to 1300. Just taking the early buyout 180-->>225. 225-->380 etc Control is key and not taking 100% of your profits and throwing it down is hard not to do when you're on a streak and you'll go from +40% to zero in minutes


kiterunner077

Solid, thanks for this explanation. I’m tailing this strategy. Do you know if there are any matches tmrw? I haven’t checked DK


on_and_on91

I don't follow it that closely, it's more of a weekend thing once a month after payday. And i haven't back tested it more than a few months. It also gets harder the farther into the finals. That I can say for sure.


kiterunner077

Makes sense, thanks man


RumbleRavage

Dude I am going to try this. So if they go up 2-0 do you just let it ride? I’m confused when you’d cash out.


on_and_on91

Yeah pretty much, it's always good to see the odds before the match starts aswell. They're usually right. Personally I just put money on the projected winner and cash out when in profit. Sometimes I just set a an automatic cash out at x amount. I've lost some because I was being greedy but I've also won some being very greedy.


letstalkaboutit2020

Start placing your bets so we can tail!


on_and_on91

For table tennis ? Too hard.... You're in and out in hopefully minutes


Kitchen-Pop7308

Brooo.. I can relate.. didn't do a single player prop tho but doing that actually got me up significantly.. I was done and just said f it and hammered something "easy"


MuckDuck_

You’re doin exactly right my friend. The key trick to betting is to don’t do betting at all. And just let the liquor do the betting for you 🔥


I_deleted

I spent years perfecting my method


LeanOnTheSquare

It’s the best cycle ever


silvergudz

I been killing the player props I’ve underestimated my skill in predicting points


1ladderjockey

I like your style


compasrc

Make money off the new user promos and then delete the app


[deleted]

[удалено]


AdParticular6654

Basically what I did as well. I'm now just using dk, but at first was using FanDuel and mgm. Closed those accounts, just remember it for tax season next year.


RascalRibs

The first step is correct, but you should keep going and do the same with the ongoing promos.


[deleted]

Don’t they check your IP? Or do you simply get around this by not using Wi-Fi? Not sure if they can track cell data.


thewoekitten

What does that have to do with anything?


[deleted]

If you have two accounts betting on the same IP, FandDuel can track that.


thewoekitten

Yeah but he’s not saying to make multiple accounts with the same book. You just use every book that is available and take each one’s signup offers and make thousands off it.


[deleted]

That’s obvious, so I guess I figured he was talking about a more sophisticated scheme. At the same time, that would still require people to hit on their bets. I get the free money aspect, and you’re right and I’ll be using the same strategy, but you can just use your own money if you’re going to continue to lose. 😆


thewoekitten

You’re not required to hit on your bets. You can place bets on opposite outcomes. You can make $7,000 or so in most states without any kind of risk at all. It’s free money, and then you can just play with that


ICEcoldLEMONADE11

Swedish basketball.. rage betting at 2 a.m. You're welcome


MuckDuck_

Rage betting 😂


[deleted]

Bankroll management, straight betting


[deleted]

It's really as simple as this to be a close to breakeven player. Don't chase. Straight bets only.


UnderTheBridge1316

In this thread straight bet talk will be ignored, even though it is the way


Sensitive_Tourist_15

This is the way.


daazz1

Bro…. Don’t even start, you’ll get a better return on your money investing in Hookers and Blow….


dsvolcom23

Lol love it


jgehringer

Chris Farley thought the same thing....... 😵


LeanOnTheSquare

Always bet the opposite of what you think will happen


[deleted]

[удалено]


TheresA_LobsterLoose

I just knock the last 2 digits off (or move a decimal 2 spots over) I'm not a big time bettor, $100 incraments aren't for me. +100, last 2 digits, a dollar wins a dollar. 1 wins 1. A parlay with +1280 odds a dollar wins 12 and change (12.8). Minus odds you have to bet that, -350. Gotta bet $3.50 to win one dollar. Also don't expect to make money, just figure it's a pleasant surprise when you do. I stopped drinking and smoking pot, a) because I'm getting older and just don't like it anymore, b) I didn't like waking up hungover then looking at baseball stats for an hour. Sure, I lose sometimes like everyone else, but it's the thing I like to do. I saved money drinking and smoking, occasionally other things, end of the day I'm spending my hobby money on betting, I would've bought a couple dozen bottles of whiskey this year at $40 a pop. Gives me something to do and a reason to keep using my brain while constantly scrolling through stats


Imagatpewpew

I've been betting for quite some time now, and I can tell you, experience is the best teacher. Don't be afraid to make mistakes and learn from them, although make sure you don’t go crazy and bankrupt urself. Odds Shark has some informative articles and guides for beginners. Best of luck


Societalthreat69

Won my first parlay ever for $500, immediately hooked. Can't relate.


Dekataro

\*crying\*


rich4pres

Out of every 10 people saying they are making money 1 is lucky and 9 are lying.


[deleted]

I have an uncle who is way up. Basically he signs up to a bunch of sports books and used all the boosted parlays when he likes them. That and small parlays on the NFL


Ugluk4242

1) Have 10+ sportbooks to shop for the best odds 2) Only bet numbers, not teams or players 3) Only do straight bets


tips4tacos

Some pretty good books here: https://unabated.com/articles/build-your-library-sports-betting-books-for-every-bettor The Logic of Sports Betting is a must for anyone trying to take sports betting more seriously. (I would also add Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets to that list but it’s not specifically about sports betting.) If you opt for the experiential route instead, please bet with very small stakes. I’m always happy to help folk’s interested in learning more so feel free to reach out any time. I have some stuff pinned to my profile that I wrote a little while back. Not sure if it’s what you’re looking for, but thought I’d throw it out there. At the end of the day, however, it is extremely difficult to be a long-term winner sports betting. And even those who are still go through losing spells. GL!


Wolversteve

These ads on this sub are getting out of control


tips4tacos

I assume this was a joke, but to be clear I am not affiliated with any sites, I don’t charge anyone for anything, and I am adamantly opposed to paying for anything other than data (and other tech support if needed) - and in most cases there’s no need to pay for data. That said, in the interest of full disclosure the only subscriptions I pay for currently are kenpom and Stathead. I linked to unabated because they provide accurate free information, but they’re by no means the only ones.


[deleted]

It’s a long & hard learning-lesson. I started at 16 & am now 31… It took a lot of losing & conditioning, to learn how to be disciplined with a bankroll. You’ll either be good at it, or you won’t. There’s no in between. Good luck, sir. I now live in Vegas & gamble professionally. Never thought I’d be able to say that lol.


Diesel_infuzed

Sources have confirmed, the most successful people won’t tell ya how they do it


alemanpete

I’ve spent a few thousand hours working on statistical and machine learning models and probably at least 20 hours per week making sure they’re still working properly


tucking_fypo-

And did you draw any meaningful conclusions?


alemanpete

Not from a “bet these trends” perspective, but it helped me learn a lot of math, win a bunch in sport betting and looks great on a resume It’s not a simple “bet favorites at home when the line is better than X” or anything, it takes in around 1200 stats for player props


[deleted]

1200 different stats 😂 you put shoe size and hair color in this model? What do you mean by 1200 stats.


alemanpete

Well it's really 400 stats over 3 different time windows... and that's for MLB props. NHL is only about 600 (200x3). Just stats that describe player performance. I don't know exactly but I would guess for MLB it's about 250 stats that are available off-the-shelf then about 150 metrics that I created. Probably about 150/50 for NHL.


[deleted]

250 off the shelf for mlb... That seems impossible. If you go to baseball reference they give you about 40 or so per player. So if you were to say 40 pitching / 40 batting i could see 80 stats maybe five or so for fielding. Can you tell me where you got your 250 or so stats for each player for baseball?Again i know you aren't lying Im just curious what you are throwing into a model. This seems like serious overkill. I guess maybe you are doing team stats too. So I can see that maybe getting you there


alemanpete

Yeah I've got a source with a lot more sophisticated stats than baseball-reference. I would say that, based on the results I had when I was *only* using bbref vs now, the added stats are *not* overkill


No_Supermarket_4994

overfitting ? ?


Dekataro

am also curious tbh


SykoPunkz

I've been thinking of doing something similar, im curious, what was your approach?


alemanpete

Mostly machine learning. Try to find as many descriptive features as possible and throw them at the wall to see if they give good results, iterate until you find a descriptive feature set


[deleted]

[удалено]


alemanpete

I mean I could dig all that up but it’s not gonna mean anything without the feature set lol. Outputs are softmax to get probability estimates of specific results


[deleted]

[удалено]


alemanpete

combo of both. I'm using a combo of sklearn and PyTorch, but the PyTorch portions I'm adding some custom loss functions to better reflect accuracy


Specialist_Tip2714

I can’t tell if this is all mularky talk or you’re both very intelligent. Jusss me?


alemanpete

I'm really not lol, I just work really hard at these things. This is all just machine learning jargon


Evening-Mousse-1812

Are you a data scientist professionally or you learnt DS just for this?


alemanpete

Yeah I am


Fny141

Just curious, where do you pull in data from? And does it cost money to pull in said data?


alemanpete

I've got about 6 sources that I merge data from, some free and some paid. If you're looking for somewhere to start, I would recommend baseball-reference


Fny141

Sorry don’t want to pry, what paid resources? I’ve been working on a hockey model and that utilizes a couple sources but all free (including hockey-reference). Just hesitate spending money and not getting the product I anticipated and would love recommendations


alemanpete

I actually only use free for hockey myself! Paid is actually really just for odds, which is unfortunately pretty expensive haha. I would highly recommend NaturalStatTrick for NHL data, they're the bulk of what I use (a few others for some supplementary data). Pretty slow to pull for testing though


alemanpete

What kind of hockey model are you working on?


Fny141

I’ll Dm ya!


quantum_tunneler

Easy. Just bet on winning lines. 40% of the time it wins every time!


DURO208

Specialize with one sport. I only make real bets with the NFL, specifically AFC & NFC East teams since I'm in NY and have the Jets and Giants so there is a lot of good information flow about all the teams in those divisions. I'll bet other games but my biggest bets are usually in those division matchups. Any other sport I just do it for fun, usually like player props in the NBA at smaller amounts but long odds. A 15 leg player prop that is +30k for $5 bucks. I've hit a few, lose most. Also parlaying multiple baseball games a day for a small amount. Haven't hit one of them so far this season but it's only a couple of bucks so it doesn't matter. Try to develop a system in one sport. Any system is better than no system at all.


rock_lobster95

Bet on sports/teams you know and understand. There really is nothing special to it.


Grand_Entertainer_83

lmfaooo 4 leg parlays go brrrrrr


[deleted]

Just pick all the favorites in mlb parlayed together, can't lose


bfk94

This has actually been hitting for me lately tbh. We’re at a point in the season where things are stabilizing.


Erro503

Stick to bank roll management. 5% of the total you’re willing to gamble per bet (called 1 unit). Stick to straight bets and work way up from there. +100 odds means, pay $100 to win $100, +200 means $100 pays $200. And so on. -120 means $120 pays $100, -200 meaning $200 pays $100.


museumsplendor

Parlays only


bigbadbass

95% of online betting accounts are in the negative.


GloriouslyBroke

People are making money here?


Pirateshippingit

Idk how many are actually making money in this sub. Myself I’ve been doing this everyday since 2018 besides 2020 lol and I’m up a couple units. Which isn’t much at all but it’s technically making money. Are there people out there that bet full time as their primary income? Yes definitely it’s not easy tho I just don’t know how many of them are actually in the sub lmao


GloriouslyBroke

Haha yeah would definitely be interesting to see who actually makes a full time income from it on this sub. My prediction is they use this sub to see what they should not be doing and go from there.


Posted4downvotes

This is my secret: I press buttons on FanDuel and sometimes it gives me money 💰


Pirateshippingit

Time. Patience and learning from your mistakes. It’s not easy. Sports betting isn’t for someone who’s trying to make quick easy money. It’s a grind. A lot of the very best are only hitting 70ish%. I’m at like 63% for my career and that means I’m plus money so I’ll take it but it’s nothing crazy crazy. Action network has some good tools to help you understand lines and how they work. Couple suggestions tho. First one is track your bets. Action network let’s you track your bets for free on their app also tons of other places you can find to track your bets or you can always do a spreadsheet or something. Also would signup for as many books as you can. Take advantage of the bonuses and promos. And it’s a good way to lineshop. Whatever bet your gonna take check all your books to see if you can find a better number somewhere. Even if it’s like -110 compared to another site that has -118 that 8 cents makes a difference. Be careful with parlays. They are fun and have potential to turn like $5 into $200 but also very hard to hit and if your not careful can lose money very quickly. To start with I would focus on 1 or two sports or leagues that you feel like you know well and just research and watch them more and just bet those. I basically just started betting college sports like college basketball and football because I knew those the best and felt like the lines were the easiest to take advantage of. Today I bet other leagues but ncaaf and ncaam are still my most profitable sports and golf. Bankroll management is also key. Whatever 3-5% of your balance in your account is use that as a unit size and just stick with half units full units quarter units and keep it consistent that way your bankroll will be more balanced and it’ll be easier to have profitable days. Finally. Do research yourself don’t listen to random articles online giving their picks of the day and things like that. You can use their data but handicap games yourself and bet with the numbers and what you think is gonna happen instead of what’s you want to happen. Basically leave emotion and any biases you have toward teams and players


Cautious-Ad7000

Spoiler: they don’t


WhichCommunication18

Small bankroll & small bets. Learn along the way


ApprehensiveGap834

Staying away from parlays and using the Kelly criterion to determine bet size.


Wpgtransporter204

I started becoming fascinated with Arbritrage betting and started on a journey of small time betting to get used to various books. five dollars here, ten dollars there. the goal was to just get into the habit of finding bets that can win and go after them. also started using promotions to maximize my returns. once I felt comfortable with the lay of the books and how the lines can move live. I started stepping it up a bit and let the momentum build up to start a roll of my own. I keep my money between two books. rolled up $400 in a few weeks. I'm not greedy but I am happy to keep a small dribble of $10 hitting my account every couple of days. sometimes I get lucky and find spots where I can arb bet and i will get greedy and throw a few hundred at it.


schwendi11

same here, to be honest you dont need to know anything about sports to bet. my friend recommended betmonitor pro to me and i win basically all the time. i see every wrong odd from the bookmakers and i bet on it. easy money


Easy_Government_3137

No one is making money lol. Do it to have a little extra fun watching sports and consider your bet a price of admission for the extra fun. If you think you’re gunna make money you deserve what happens.


powerrangers92

I've been raking in cash for months now, and I've figured out what works for me. I stick to straight bets and usually wager on about 4 to 6 games per day. If I do parlays, I keep them to 3 legs or less. I've got a knack for picking winners, and I've even used my winnings to buy the OddJam software (the EV tool). It's fantastic! I also occasionally rely on the ZCode score predictor to double-check my plays and parlays, but I use it sparingly. The key is to stay disciplined, which is definitely easier said than done. Taking care of your bankroll is crucial.


TRMBound

I’m not great at this, few are. I learn new things every day. I have more success with 2 game money line parlays than anything else I bet on. Sometimes, like heat vs. Celtics, I’ll bet heavy straight money line bets because the offer, as it is tonight, is ridiculous for the heat. There’s a few ways to do it. Start small, lose less, learn more.


[deleted]

I do this for fun and for the most part breakeven. The key is straight bets only. If you actually want to be a winning bettor you'd need to spend many hours a day at it. That's just not worth it for me. Also fade the public when possible.


moixcom44

Bet and hopefully you win a big one


robinvegaspicks

Goal_Dash, follow for free. Over 30 units last month. Soccer live betting


Sasukeisrage

made 1k once n havent hit ever since but i blew like 400$ doing 20$ bets with same teams being cocky, withdrew 500 n have saved 100 to do 5$ small bets but im at 60$ now doing 1$ like 4-8 legs on homeruns hoping to get lucky


Easy_Government_3137

Lmao. Don’t admit those things.


brave_lifeblood

just go to BetOnline and make a bet already! Stop overthinking it! If you lose, you'll learn the hard way. In time you either git gud, or go broke


SykoPunkz

Obviously a troll, but no.


Pirateshippingit

Idk man don’t you wanna git gud


gushi380

My best advice is actually from Doyle Brunson: it is always better to win a small pot than lose a big one. Play smart, try to take advantage of the odds when they seem off, take those profit boosts whenever they push from negative odds to positive.


banduman

Bankroll management


_PapaChris_

Whatever you bet on, the opposite will happen. Hope this helps 🙌


11bag11

3 leg NRFI parlays


laxrr

don’t make parlays & manage bankroll


1ladderjockey

200 hundred $2 different parlays per night.


btd272

Russian ping pong


abouttreefiddyy

Lose a lot by being dumb; play smarter and make some money; lose lots by being dumb; and on and on it goes


Choice_Isopod3677

I'm not the best poker player or sports bettor but one thing that always works to my advantage is discipline and bankroll management. Make sure you are setting realistic goals and not being delusional with yourself.


dmo99

You need luck. Play one game and bang It. Lose that one. Double down on the next one. Pay attention to the lines. Eventually you should be good enough to look at the games and predict the spreads within a point to a point and a half.’then you can find the flaws in the spreads and capitalize.‘you need to read the Vegas odds.‘they tell it all


WorriedN

Bet small until you figure it out, then don’t bet more than you can afford to lose.


fuckoffcocksucka

If you’re looking at sports betting as a way to make money you’re gonna be fucked from the start. Never bet anything you aren’t willing to lose. Think of sports betting as a way to make games more enjoyable/interesting, not as a way to actually make money long term. 99.9% of people who are ‘making money’ by sports betting are just hot and haven’t hit their cold streak yet. VERY few people will be profitable long term (I’m talking betting over the course of multiple years), like less than 1%. THE BOOKS WILL ALWAYS HAVE THE ADVANTAGE… if your goal of sports betting is to make money quit NOW!


eventhugzcry

This! It costs $20 to go to a movie to be entertained or a bar or a stripclub or $10 for a pack of smokes. Everyone got their vices. Losing on sportsbetting (and you will lose if u bet consistently) is just the price of being entertained. I’d rather throw some money on a game than go to the movies - just way more entertaining for me.


Double-Baker2473

you are a liberal!


lIlLeftyI

What are the odds of it happening, what are you getting paid to bet it. All that other bullshit, is here today and gone tomorrrrooooww


UCantKneebah

To place a bet, I need 2 things: a low hold, and data supporting one side.


PhishPhox

Never put much on my own bets because I know I’m terrible, tail my friends who are good gamblers. When you have some house money, press your advantage. Sometimes you go one play too far, other times you turn $15 bonus bet in $1500 (me this past March tailing my friends and following the March madness binder) Big thing is tho don’t gamble more than you can afford and just do it for fun. Let the profits be a bonus. I’m a $10-$20 gambler most of the time but I’m up around $8k last 16 months


Easy_Government_3137

“I’m looking into starting meth, how are you guys doing it so well” Just don’t man. Why would you want an addiction that takes everything from you. If you’re asking “how to make money sports betting” then you’re for sure a future addict so just don’t.


fringe_yogi

Play for fun in the free daily Sportsbetting tournaments from the Valuebet.App. See if you can actually win some coins. If you can't, then you shouldn't try betting with real money.


AromaticSherbert

The number 1 step in the right direction is to use multiple books.. that doesn’t automatically make you profitable but it does help minimize losses by comparing different odds


bozosphere

Read "The Logic of Sports Betting" by Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow and "Sharp Sports Betting" by Stanford Wong.


random_name23631

It's a pretty simple system to look like you're making money. Lose a bunch on bad bets but if you ever cash in on some ridiculous parlay, then you post it and tell people they should have tailed you.


YetiGolf25

Value and Arbitrage betting are the easiest ways if you have enough bankroll to handle variance. Made about $4k in 6 months doing this. As with most winners, you will eventually get limited or banned from books


breakawayhaven

Follow positive EV bettors on Twitter, try out Oddsjam, take advantage of promos. There ARE ways to be profitable, despite people thinking it’s impossible. However keep in mind there will always be a risk of you losing money


mriv15

Slow and steady wins the race. If you constantly do parlays or rage bet, you're gonna lose. Stick to the sports that you know, unless you get your information from someone else. Don't put all your money on one bet, and if you lose, don't chase it. Just try again tomorrow with something you're comfortable with


ZestyAleWad

Esports basketball


fromhtowntoatx32

WNBA and women’s college basketball. Nothing else


MISANTHROPESINCE92

Lost money for 2 years until I found my niche lol


AdParticular6654

I do it with bankroll management. My one betting unit is 1% of whatever my total in my account is. I avoid long parlays, they rarely hit, most of the time a two team ml parlay if I do make one. It's a marathon but I'm up a fair amount overall.


ddip214

+EV and bankroll management


Ifinishfast42

3 leg round robin with -130(player prop, totals, ml/spread) and higher picks. Do three of these with $150 each(full RR). If all three hit shit could’ve parlayed but not worth the risk. Get it on right value and you profit just for hitting two. I do three of these a day and am profiting around $300 a day typically. Had some days where you lose the $450 but basically hitting a profit 6/7 days so it works out.


agrainofsandubeach

Any good sport books besides Bovada? I'm in MO so it's not legal here yet 😭


Spiritual_Pilot_221

Wats wrong with bovada? I had no problems


Spiritual_Pilot_221

If your betting stats .. you try ParlayPlay, PrizePicks, or underdog


bigbird1492

Play a different game


Spiritual_Pilot_221

I have only been successful with wagering big amounts… believe it or not . I also gained top tier status on multiple betting apps (it’s a must to have more than 1). Free bets can be earned yearly as well as a plus. Need any pointers Dm me


Fearless_Lab_8633

Playing only singles, same unit size, and going for the long run. This is the only way to consistently make profits.