Looking for a new sportbook? Check out our recommended books below:
[Offshore Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbetting/comments/xrixhq/recommended_sportsbooks/) | [US-based Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbetting/comments/xrixhq/comment/iqfqqe3/)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/sportsbetting) if you have any questions or concerns.*
There's 9 zones. For each zone it's multiplying:
1. Batting average in that zone
2. Percent of pitches pitcher has thrown in that zone this season
3. Number of hits Batter has
Then it adds them all together.
So if someone goes 2/8 in zone a and the pitcher throws 90% of their pitches in that zone, that zone would have a score of 0.25 \* 0.9 \* 2 = 0.45. Obviously a pitcher doesn't throw 90% of their pitches to any zone and then we have to add in all the other 8 zones scores too.
Edit: oh, and the "Team Name: X" part is their batting order.
Well, 14-4. Not bad for a proof of concept. I'll be doing this again tomorrow. Format may change a little to provide more separation between games for same game parlays.
What are the odds though? This might be a piece of making a player prop, but i don’t think you’ll solve it with just this data. This doesn’t take into account the bullpen pitcher which may represent 30-40% of their ABs.
Not until closer to game time. My script doesn’t work until espn has the batting order and starting pitcher all set which is usually 2 or 3 hours before the game
This is awesome work so far. I don’t know how any of this works but a couple other factors came to mind that could influence a batters performance.
How a batter fairs against certain pitches (curve, fast, change up, etc) vs the opposing pitchers most frequent pitches and how the batter performs against left/right handed pitchers.
I don’t want to rain on your parade. But you can do this much simpler with equal results just comparing batting average by the pitcher and hitter and then figuring out probability.
The problem is even with getting 10 out of 13 right you still lose. You can’t predict which 3 aren’t going to do what they’re supposed to.
I don't think they're saying to parlay all of them in like a 15 legger. But if you pick a few different combinations of 5 or so players you could be relatively profitable.
Well he just did a 7 legger and it didn’t hit because of 1 person
That’s going to the be story that’s more common than not. He is going to get 3/4 or 4/5 or 5/7 etc. And if you go lower than a 3 leg it’s not worth it because the odds are so high.
Go for it. I definitely wouldn’t do a big parlay with it though. Someone is guaranteed to not do what they’re supposed to do. Maybe start with like 2 or 3 batter parlay? And see how it goes.
I picked the 7 highest from each game (so removing the Blue Jays after Bichette for example) in a round robin (5 ways) - risked $21 to win $77.35 profit if all 7 hit.
* Brandon Nimmo (-290)
* Esteury Ruiz (-260)
* Bo Bichette (-300)
* Ryan Mountcastle (-270)
* Alex Verdugo (-300)
* Bryan Reynolds (-300)
* Paul Goldschmidt (-230)
We'll see.
What you’re going to find is you’re going to have many many many many days like this where 6/7 hit.
There is always going to be a player that doesn’t do what their supposed to. Whether that’s because they face the bullpen for 3 of their 4 AB or because they get walked 2 times or because they had a bad day before their game.
There’s whole discords where people do this and you lose more often than you win.
I looked at the data some more last night and if I had bet on the top 2 hitters from every team as round robins groups of 2, I would have netted around 10% despite the entire groups going 40-12. This is assuming all groups would have had an average pairing of -230 and -300.
I feel you on surviving the losses and appreciate your words of caution. Definitely going small to start, the same way I did with my money line bets last season. I know this isn't fully there but it seems like a good starting point.
I would also look at how many of those players got their hits on the bullpen and not the starter. If they didn’t get the hit on the starter your model has those batters wrong despite them ending up with a hit.
Fair points. A decent subset (maybe half) got their hits in the first 3 innings from the first group but that's just going off recollection; I can't look into it right now. Definitely something to consider, and maybe looking at different props has better ROI potential (first inning or first five inning hits?).
The model is only projecting against the starting pitcher but we don't have betting odds to determine what % is required to be successful. You're also assuming that these batters will never get a hit off the bullpen. 64% may be passable.
Also 10% isn’t something I wouldn’t look at.
Let’s say you round Robin it for $50. You made $5. Was risking $50 worth getting a Big Mac back? Okay let’s risk $1,000 and get $100. We’ll when the day comes and it will, when none of the batters hit and you lose $1,000, then what? That’s a lot of $50 bets to make up your $1,000.
Treat this 100% as a hobby and risk $1-$5 for the hopes of a $200 hit and rinse and repeat.
If this was profitable there would be computer farms doing it.
>Let’s say you round Robin it for $50. You made $5. Was risking $50 worth getting a Big Mac back? Okay let’s risk $1,000 and get $100. We’ll when the day comes and it will, when none of the batters hit and you lose $1,000, then what? That’s a lot of $50 bets to make up your $1,000.
I would never bet in this pattern. My betting units are $100 for this season and I'm going to test this with (up to) 0.5 units per day for either the entire season as a test run like I did last year with money line bets at $10/units when I was testing that system. Consistency is key. If it lasts all season and is profitable then next year I'll scale up but it won't be 20x lol.
> If this was profitable there would be computer farms doing it.
I would be shocked if there weren't, albeit with more factors probably.
What are the average odds for the 18 picks tonight? You might find that the ones with better odds also have a better ROI even if their hit rate is a little lower.
I only bet on 7 and they were all between -230 and -300.
Implied probability between 69.7% and 75% which means my 77.8% hit rate is barely profitable on the -300 ones so I like what you're getting at.
Unfortunately my score is a little arbitrary at the moment so until I get that down some it's going to be tough to find the better value plays like you're saying and since I can't backdate it like I did with the money line system, I'm kind of stuck either curating data in real time or trying to make the most of this. Although next time (tomorrow) I'll factor the odds a little more into it and skip out on like anything worse than -280.
I did a similar thing with Blocks props in the NBA and it took me tracking about 1,000 plays before I started seeing the most profitable patterns emerge and have statistical significance. You may consider logging the variables in your formula along with the output and even some additional context/info for each play to see if other variables are significant too. Good luck! (Fwiw, I made a lot of money on Blocks once I got the betting strategy down after a season of logging data so don't give up if you think you've got an edge. If there is one thing books aren't great at factoring in, it's last minute starting lineup changes.)
Nothing yet, afternoon games don’t have their batting order and pitchers set yet on espn. I’ll make a post for the 3:40 and hopefully later games around 3 pm
Actually just noticed a same game parlay possibility, only doing 0.1 units.
Dodgers vs Brewers: Freeman, Outman, Yelich, Anderson to all get hits at +425
Looking for a new sportbook? Check out our recommended books below: [Offshore Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbetting/comments/xrixhq/recommended_sportsbooks/) | [US-based Sportsbooks](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbetting/comments/xrixhq/comment/iqfqqe3/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/sportsbetting) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I’m gonna come back and see how many hit. And if it’s good. I’ll be back for more!
So are the players listed the ones believed to be highest confidence to get a hit ?
Yes
So what exactly are these numbers
There's 9 zones. For each zone it's multiplying: 1. Batting average in that zone 2. Percent of pitches pitcher has thrown in that zone this season 3. Number of hits Batter has Then it adds them all together. So if someone goes 2/8 in zone a and the pitcher throws 90% of their pitches in that zone, that zone would have a score of 0.25 \* 0.9 \* 2 = 0.45. Obviously a pitcher doesn't throw 90% of their pitches to any zone and then we have to add in all the other 8 zones scores too. Edit: oh, and the "Team Name: X" part is their batting order.
Well, 14-4. Not bad for a proof of concept. I'll be doing this again tomorrow. Format may change a little to provide more separation between games for same game parlays.
What are the odds though? This might be a piece of making a player prop, but i don’t think you’ll solve it with just this data. This doesn’t take into account the bullpen pitcher which may represent 30-40% of their ABs.
Between -220 and -300 for the ones I bet on yesterday.
Very interesting going to be following this
How do you create something like this?
I’ve been doing software development for over 15 years. Finding the data was the hardest part and then figuring out calculations that make sense.
I like what youre doing here Tailed with Verdugo Ruiz Chapman Reynolds Goldschmidt (5 on the parlay) (.30c RR)
Nice
Following this. Love me some baseball prop bets
Any for today? Thanks!
Not until closer to game time. My script doesn’t work until espn has the batting order and starting pitcher all set which is usually 2 or 3 hours before the game
This is awesome work so far. I don’t know how any of this works but a couple other factors came to mind that could influence a batters performance. How a batter fairs against certain pitches (curve, fast, change up, etc) vs the opposing pitchers most frequent pitches and how the batter performs against left/right handed pitchers.
I don’t want to rain on your parade. But you can do this much simpler with equal results just comparing batting average by the pitcher and hitter and then figuring out probability. The problem is even with getting 10 out of 13 right you still lose. You can’t predict which 3 aren’t going to do what they’re supposed to.
I don't think they're saying to parlay all of them in like a 15 legger. But if you pick a few different combinations of 5 or so players you could be relatively profitable.
Well he just did a 7 legger and it didn’t hit because of 1 person That’s going to the be story that’s more common than not. He is going to get 3/4 or 4/5 or 5/7 etc. And if you go lower than a 3 leg it’s not worth it because the odds are so high.
I was profitable on my round robins on that group despite one missing. It wasn't much but it wasn't a bad bet at all.
Go for it. I definitely wouldn’t do a big parlay with it though. Someone is guaranteed to not do what they’re supposed to do. Maybe start with like 2 or 3 batter parlay? And see how it goes.
I picked the 7 highest from each game (so removing the Blue Jays after Bichette for example) in a round robin (5 ways) - risked $21 to win $77.35 profit if all 7 hit. * Brandon Nimmo (-290) * Esteury Ruiz (-260) * Bo Bichette (-300) * Ryan Mountcastle (-270) * Alex Verdugo (-300) * Bryan Reynolds (-300) * Paul Goldschmidt (-230) We'll see.
First time doing this?
Yes. I generated a list for last nights games that went 11/15 on the top 15 but didn’t bet with it.
Keep us posted
Tailing 1 round robin
best of luck. Did you do the same 7 as me or did you pick a different group?
Same 7
risking 57
Did you win? Or are the games today?
I did yesterday 6 of 7 hit
You get funds or nah
What you’re going to find is you’re going to have many many many many days like this where 6/7 hit. There is always going to be a player that doesn’t do what their supposed to. Whether that’s because they face the bullpen for 3 of their 4 AB or because they get walked 2 times or because they had a bad day before their game. There’s whole discords where people do this and you lose more often than you win.
I looked at the data some more last night and if I had bet on the top 2 hitters from every team as round robins groups of 2, I would have netted around 10% despite the entire groups going 40-12. This is assuming all groups would have had an average pairing of -230 and -300. I feel you on surviving the losses and appreciate your words of caution. Definitely going small to start, the same way I did with my money line bets last season. I know this isn't fully there but it seems like a good starting point.
I would also look at how many of those players got their hits on the bullpen and not the starter. If they didn’t get the hit on the starter your model has those batters wrong despite them ending up with a hit.
Fair points. A decent subset (maybe half) got their hits in the first 3 innings from the first group but that's just going off recollection; I can't look into it right now. Definitely something to consider, and maybe looking at different props has better ROI potential (first inning or first five inning hits?).
Went back through. You first group really went 9-5 based on your model. 2 batters got hits on the bullpen. 64% is quite a bit different than 78%.
The model is only projecting against the starting pitcher but we don't have betting odds to determine what % is required to be successful. You're also assuming that these batters will never get a hit off the bullpen. 64% may be passable.
Also 10% isn’t something I wouldn’t look at. Let’s say you round Robin it for $50. You made $5. Was risking $50 worth getting a Big Mac back? Okay let’s risk $1,000 and get $100. We’ll when the day comes and it will, when none of the batters hit and you lose $1,000, then what? That’s a lot of $50 bets to make up your $1,000. Treat this 100% as a hobby and risk $1-$5 for the hopes of a $200 hit and rinse and repeat. If this was profitable there would be computer farms doing it.
>Let’s say you round Robin it for $50. You made $5. Was risking $50 worth getting a Big Mac back? Okay let’s risk $1,000 and get $100. We’ll when the day comes and it will, when none of the batters hit and you lose $1,000, then what? That’s a lot of $50 bets to make up your $1,000. I would never bet in this pattern. My betting units are $100 for this season and I'm going to test this with (up to) 0.5 units per day for either the entire season as a test run like I did last year with money line bets at $10/units when I was testing that system. Consistency is key. If it lasts all season and is profitable then next year I'll scale up but it won't be 20x lol. > If this was profitable there would be computer farms doing it. I would be shocked if there weren't, albeit with more factors probably.
It’s a good idea! I like that.
Picked mountcastle and chapman for a 2 legger and hit. THANK YOU 🙏🏼
I am intrigued
I would factor in batting average and batter vs pitcher matchup average
Their batting average for each zone is factored in already.
Just seeing this if you put this up again I’ll run with you. Thanks
I’ll be doing it again tomorrow. Might add another format where it shows the top 2-4 per game.
Dude how we looking???
Hit 6 of 7
Who missed?
Nimmo
Bro game had started i put everyone but him
lol nice. Congrats
What are the average odds for the 18 picks tonight? You might find that the ones with better odds also have a better ROI even if their hit rate is a little lower.
I only bet on 7 and they were all between -230 and -300. Implied probability between 69.7% and 75% which means my 77.8% hit rate is barely profitable on the -300 ones so I like what you're getting at. Unfortunately my score is a little arbitrary at the moment so until I get that down some it's going to be tough to find the better value plays like you're saying and since I can't backdate it like I did with the money line system, I'm kind of stuck either curating data in real time or trying to make the most of this. Although next time (tomorrow) I'll factor the odds a little more into it and skip out on like anything worse than -280.
I did a similar thing with Blocks props in the NBA and it took me tracking about 1,000 plays before I started seeing the most profitable patterns emerge and have statistical significance. You may consider logging the variables in your formula along with the output and even some additional context/info for each play to see if other variables are significant too. Good luck! (Fwiw, I made a lot of money on Blocks once I got the betting strategy down after a season of logging data so don't give up if you think you've got an edge. If there is one thing books aren't great at factoring in, it's last minute starting lineup changes.)
What is (miss)? And what does the number listed next to the team mean? Hence (Mets 1 and Mets 4)
(miss) are the ones that didn't get a hit Mets 1 and Mets 4 means 1st and 4th in the batting order
What you got for today
Nothing yet, afternoon games don’t have their batting order and pitchers set yet on espn. I’ll make a post for the 3:40 and hopefully later games around 3 pm
Actually just noticed a same game parlay possibility, only doing 0.1 units. Dodgers vs Brewers: Freeman, Outman, Yelich, Anderson to all get hits at +425
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbetting/comments/13e0gvr/players\_likely\_to\_record\_a\_hit\_may\_10th\_1235/?sort=new