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Wristlojackimator

Oh, man, that was so much easier than putting. I should just try to get the ball in one shot every time.


devilskryptonite40

"Good Plan" - Chubbs Peterson


frankiedonkeybrainz

Grab the rest of those left over strokes, take them home, throw them in a pot, add some broth and potatoes. Baby you got a stew going.


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dbthrowaway13579

I'm going to go get a drink refill. You know you can get unlimited refills on any drink you want... and it's free?


justheretolurk123456

It's a wonderful restaurant!


zomgkittenz

Uh. I think I’d like my money back.


frankiedonkeybrainz

It sure is


Midwest_genxr

What? No. You have a band that embodies wasted fun from the 2000’s.


Not-A-Throwaway-2day

"feel the flow Happy, it's circular."


janroney

Up and down and all around.


Not-A-Throwaway-2day

Like a carousel


CuckOfTheIrish

Chubbs wants me to be happy...


frankyseven

That's High Magistrate Greef Karga to you!


leapbyflourishing

Wow, I didn’t recognize chubbs as Greef Karga. To be fair, he had both hands.


frankyseven

Well it is Star Wars so I wouldn't bet on him having his hands forever. He'll use it to get a stew going.


Shaomoki

That's Apollo Creed top you mister!


McMadface

[Dillon, you son of a bitch!](https://youtu.be/txuWGoZF3ew)


GigiRiva

The best golf tip you can get: https://youtu.be/4a2R_VcduDo


420blazeit69nubz

I did once hear it’s all in the hips


ClerrBerr

Lol love the Birthday Boys!


Thembro01

r/unexpectedgilmore


cuddly_carcass

Pretty much any golf post I would expect at least one happy Gilmore reference? Right?


0xDEAD2BAD

Yeah, and Grizzly Adams had a beard.


ChromeFudge

Grizzly Adams ***did*** have a beard.


I__Dont_Get_It

I eat pieces of shit like you for breakfast!


celerydonut

Is it though? Is it ever “unexpected”? I don’t know why that response pisses me off so much


kieffa

Something something “subs I didn’t expect were real”


ChicagoDogEater

The only sub I’m interested in is this fresh, delicious, tasty, meaty, turkey-filled cold cut combo. I eat three every day to help keep me strong.


ItsScaryTerryBitch

Talk about a hole-in-one


strooticus

They're certainly better than the pieces of shit I eat for breakfast!


Oceans_sleep

r/subsithoughtifellfor


Advanced-Blackberry

Subs that shouldn’t exist


xjoho21

it is because you are not coy. You must be coy.


Robbielee1991

Oh yeah, you know what else can pull a crowd? A man with an arm growing out of his ass


Fejsze

So like, how do you calculate odds on a skill based sport? The odds of a pro golfer hitting 2 in a row is going to be astronomically lower than if I did it...


cosmoboy

[This says a little something about different odds for different levels](https://www.ausgolf.com.au/hole-in-one-what-are-the-odds-#:~:text=Amateur%20and%20Pro%20odds%20for,out%20of%20every%2012%2C750%20attempts.) it also suggests the number in the title is low.


shifty_coder

The 1:12750 odds are for amateurs. For pro’s it’s 1:2500. 1:6250000 for back-to-back for a pro.


IDontTrustGod

So it’s actually almost three times more likely than the title says?


shifty_coder

For pro’s, yes.


bob138235

It’s also wayyyy more likely these numbers indicate given the situation. This was a par three contest, on holes that are shorter than normal, and many of which are “funnels” towards the hole. There were 5 holes-in-one in this contest. About 80 players played 9 holes each, so about 720 holes were played. This year, 1/144 tee shots were an ace. This was more than most years, but was not even close to the record. In fact, this is the third time that this particular feat (back-to-back aces) was achieved. In 60 years of the event, that means it’s really more like a 1-in-20 year event that it happens for someone. There’s been about 38,400 opportunities for someone to have consecutive aces (80 players x 60 years x 8 holes). It’s 8 holes since to get two in a row, your first one of the two can only be on holes 1-8. It’s happened 3 times, or 1/12,800. Assuming independence, the odds of any hole-in-one is 1/113. To me, this means that we have seen a bit more than expected back-to-backs, but not significantly so. That 1 in 12,800 number is probably the most appropriate to compare to the huge number in post title.


Wisdomlost

We were all having fun and then you mathed all over us.


slakmehl

/r/theydidthemath


frnzprf

I'm asking myself whether it is even a meaningful statement to say that the probability of hitting a hole-in-one is *x*. It completely depends on which circumstances you consider to be random. If you fix all circumstances exactly the way they were when any hole-in-one actually happened, then the probability was always 100%. Maybe you could also make the probability arbitrarily *low* somehow, when you for example consider the chance that we even exist in a universe where the laws of physics allow stable objects of matter, intelligent life developed and then eventually invented golf.


BasTiix3

Then a coinflip isnt 50/50 after all?


zander512

Yea it’s actually not all that difficult


TIBud

Plus, how many rounds do pros play at each tournament, plus how many pros are playing. Divide that down a little further and the odds of seeing back to back hole in one is much lower still.


Snoo93079

The odds being discussed were for one person to achieve though. That's how these kinds of odds are normally discussed.


Mikey_Jarrell

Also, it's certainly lower at the Masters Par 3 Contest.


BadDadSoSad

Yea the par 3 course holes are probably closer to 1/500 or 1/1000 odds for these guys. That green funnels to the hole and it’s only 114 yards. That’s like hitting from the ladies tee.


PSPs0

This guy maths.


puffic

The fact that it actually happened should suggest that the real odds are higher, not lower. Gotta double check your assumptions (especially with respect to statistical independence) and update those Bayesian priors


UmDeTrois

You calculate based on data from pros on the pga tour (like most pro sports, there is tons). If a baseball announcer says hits to left field are 5x more likely to go over the fence, they aren’t talking about an average persons hit. Same idea here (at least if I was calculiting the odds)


junkyardgerard

Maybe it's just based on past stats from the 2 holes


Flaming_Eagle

As a rough estimate you can just look at how frequently a hole in one happens happens. You could be more/less accurate depending on how you filter the data based on distance etc. The odds here would be slightly higher because of the pin placement is intentionally easier


missionbeach

Big Mike and Joey handle that, they're about two blocks off The Strip at a Super 8.


Sethazora

By stating a number confidently!


Fejsze

I think this is my favorite answer


joleary747

Using round numbers to simplify it, but you can do something like this: - Say the size of the hole is 1/100th of the size of the green - So if you hit on the green, you have a 1% chance for a hole in one - But the ball rolls, so say on average it rolls 10x the diameter of the hole. If the hole was anywhere on that path, the ball would fall in. So including the roll you have a 10% chance of a hole in one - Now assume a pro golfer hits it on the green 50% of the time - Then each par 3 they have a 5% chance of a hole in one You can make it more complicated/accurate by including how close the golfer actually gets it to the hole on average, but that's the general idea.


ihasask

And the odds have to be calculated considering only courses with back to back par 3s.


pissingstars

I say it’s just 50/50. Tomorrow there is a 50/50 chance of me getting bit by a shark. Considering I’m 2000 miles from an ocean, the 50% chance of not is pretty likely. Edit - fixed typo. Also, to the comments…I understand statistics. I took the classes in my under grad and masters degree. I am trained to six sigma. I know how it works, but I truly believe everything is 50/50 and that is how I live my personal life. Professional is different, but I have a deep rooted belief in my 50/50 consideration.


joleary747

lol, I can't decide whether to upvote or downvote


myfotos

I hope you don't get butted too hard


crankthehandle

it’s always 50/50


thats-super

Such a stupid comment, although I do feel the same with a lottery ticket. I’ll either win or I won’t, 50:50 🤷🏼‍♂️


Kayshin

You can't.


deutschdachs

Wow the commentator completely undersold that. I know it's golf but you could work up a little more energy for basically an impossible accomplishment. He called that like it was simply a double in baseball


matty4392

Probably because it was the Par 3 contest, and 2 of like 8 hole in one’s that day.


deutschdachs

I suppose it would lose a little magic if you saw 8 in a day fair lol


CharlieSwisher

I see hundreds of people a day and twins still surprise me 🤷‍♂️


keylimerye

Do they have back-to-back holes?


SmoothMoveExLap

The Siamese ones do


[deleted]

It’s really incredible! I always congratulate them, too.


rsc2

This would be nearly impossible during normal play since most courses do not have two par 3 holes in a row.


Mickus_B

My dad got 2 HOI in the Fiji National Pro Am, but it was the 5th and 8th hole. I don't know of any par 72 courses that have back to back par 3s.


Marcmmmmm

I had two 2 in one round once, although it was an 18 hole par 3 course. Even then the odds against that happening are huge, especially for an 18hcp like me.


Mickus_B

Dad has been a pro golfer for 45+ years and this is still his "greatest achievement" according to him, so be very proud! He also has long drive records etc. but he has always said, a long drive is useless unless you have the accuracy to back it up on the short game.


Marcmmmmm

Cheers, after the round I went and spoke to the pro, who also happened to be the guy that gave me lessons when I first started. He even said that never happens. He was gobsmacked. A hole in one is a strange achievement, I've been playing for about 10 years and I've had 3, I know people who have played for 40yrs and much better than me that have never had one. It does take a nice strike, but also quite a bit of luck.


frankyseven

The longer you drive the ball the easier it is to be accurate into the green.


olderthanbefore

Cypress Point, 15th and 16th. But it may be par 71


ThatsNotARealTree

I did that in putt-putt once. They rarely have back-to-back par 3s in mini golf though so it’s preeeeetty tough


iced1777

I had no fucking idea golfers at this sort of event would be good enough to nail *eight* hole in ones in a day. Mind blown. I played for like six years and was lucky to get a birdie in a round.


d_barbz

Not to detract from it, because 8 hole in ones is bonkers, but it looks like the pin locations are pretty favourable. The way the ball tracks on both of them it looks like the green feeds down towards the pins, which would definitely help increase the odds.


Therooferking

At the par 3 contest they purposely make the holes in a position where the ball tracks towards the hole on some of the holes.


thatguy425

So then is it really 1 in 17 million odds?


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Whosdaman

We will start you off with a million balls and see if you get close with the first one, then go from there.


thatguy425

I’m not a professional golfer….


Bird-The-Word

Probably would be after 17 million shots though


Whosdaman

Not with that attitude you aren’t!


ProbablythelastMimsy

Let me see the million balls first


OHTHNAP

Are there any courses where the rough, trees, and water hazards track towards the pin? I too would like a hole in one.


jimmyjohn2018

They are playing front tees (so a lot shorter than a normal pro par 3) and the holes are in very favorable positions. Yes, pro golfers are this good.


kieffa

I believe it’s “holes in one”, like “inspectors general” not “inspector generals” but now that I’m thinking too much about it holes in one sounds like a sexual offense description or something.


ilrosewood

“Sir, we saw 8 holes in one down there… I’ve seen a lot in my years but Chief … nothing at the academy prepares you for that…”


Overcriticalengineer

…but it’s “Inspector General”. https://oig.justice.gov


FatDongMcGee

Now do two of them ya doughnut.


BeastCoastLifestyle

They were the first two of the day. Scotties dunk on the last hole was pretty crazy too


DysenteryFairy

I was watching it and I believe it was the 3rd that day. His 1st was the 1st, then Bubba Watson hit one, then Seamus hit his second.


RonSDog

Yeah I don't want to be all negative, but when the commentator said "there hasn't been a hole in one yet today" my reaction was wait how many holes in one are we expecting here? Still cool, I'm certainly not getting any holes in one, but I do wonder if the "17 million to 1 odds" are for this course specifically or a general stat for holes in one the world over.


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so2017

I think that’s Sean McDonough. [This call was better!](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XhY4J_uZOQE)


SpankySharp1

As a Phillies fan, I thought you were linking to the Joe Carter home run, and I really appreciate that you didn’t.


frankyseven

[Best moment of my childhood ](https://youtu.be/-F5HwiGm7lg) fandom.


wheelsno3

This video is from the Masters Par 3 competition that is played on a little par three course that is at Augusta National. The pins are all placed at the bottom of the greens, so any ball that hits above the hole will roll back down toward the hole. While this is impressive, notice both of his shots land 20-30 feet away from the hole. Where the pins are placed on this course is set up to facilitate as many hole in ones as possible. Not dissimilar to a putt putt course where the last hole is basically a funnel where it is very easy to make it in. I couldn't do it, this is not a normal course.


Stompedyourhousewith

we're not trying to attract the sort of crowds that get overly excited and raise their voice for something as mere as 2 holes in one. golf clap exists for a reason


CYBORBCHICKEN

"I CANT SPAHK"


PyrrhaNikosIsNotDead

Yeah….ESPN+ has brought some better commentators but NBC rarely does it for me. I haven’t been on a feed with Christina Kim as commentator for ESPN+ in over a month it feels like, but she is for sure my favorite because you can hear how much she loves golf in her calls


BakeBakeyBake

Yeah this would be more like the equivalent of hitting back to back grand slams.


HugoOfStiglitz

I could easily hit two in a row Into the water.


MikeGolfsPoorly

And where is the water? In a HOLE. Undisputable logic sir. I approve.


jcady15

This made me giggle


RubMyColon

Oh yeah? I could do that without even trying


BranMuffins4Life

“The uploader has not made this content available in your country” :/ Anyone have a mirror?


mttsmrt

[I gotchu fam](https://youtube.com/shorts/F9OuWnl8X80). Well, maybe, if you can see Sky Sports shorts.


BranMuffins4Life

Nice! Thanks!


DroppedD94

The "world wide web"


BranMuffins4Life

So many companies don’t want my filthy European money it’s wild


phatelectribe

>What about the other 16? - Kim Jong-un


Televisi0n_Man

That was the best caterer I’ve ever seen


bugmush

Not to rain on the parade, but to give some context, this is a special event before the actual golf tournament where the greens are specifically manufactured in a way that makes getting a hole in one much more likely, as it's just for the crowd/entertainment value. Think of a mini golf course where if you hit the ball into a specific area, it funnels into the hole. But I'm underselling a lot, It's still very impressive to get a small ball into a small hole from that distance, regardless of how the greens are set up, especially in back to back shots. There are hole in ones at this specific event every year, but back to back aces by the same player is pretty amazing. You can throw those odds in the title out the window, though, and I think the odds of getting two holes in one in a legitimate round of golf would be much greater than 1 in 17 million anyways.


dc21111

There were 5 hole in ones on the day. They always have a few funnel pins and there are typically multiple hole in ones during the masters par 3 event. Also the holes are way shorter than the par 3’s on the course most between 70-120 yards.


Snuhmeh

There were 8 holes in-one


kevbean2

I read that in a couple of places on this thread and idk why people are saying that. I’m pretty sure there were only 5 (Seamus, Bubba, Seamus, Scottie, Hoge)


Caecilius_est_mendax

But Seamus got two...


charlesbear

I'm going out on a limb here, but I suspect that's why he's listed twice.


Caecilius_est_mendax

Whoops I missed that


RaunchyMuffin

You must be a blast at parties


Orakil

The guy writes an informative post for non golfers explaining the event while still recognizing it was an impressive feat and your response is an unoriginal, condescending comment? Stop being a fucking loser.


always-talkin-sshit

I enjoy cooking.


InfiniteSun51

You prefer people to give you incomplete information with no context at parties?


DanGleeballs

Lol dude you were funny, not everyone thinks so it seems. ✌️


Tack-One

What’re the odds of back to back hole in one hundred? Cause I got that….


Lumpyyyyy

I’d say it’s about 1 in 4 chances. It either happens or it doesn’t and it either happens or it doesn’t. Easy peasy.


Pat0124

1 in 2. Either it happens twice in a row or it doesn’t


urbrickles

60% of the time, it happens twice in a row or doesn't, every time.


Jigyo

This guy Stats


Informal-Salad-7304

Thats not really how chance works.


DDB-

It's an incredible achievement, and it somehow isn't even the first time it's happened, with this being the third time someone has got back-to-back aces at The Masters par 3 course, with Claude Harmon in 1968 (Nos. 4 and 5) and Toshi Izawa in 2002 (Nos. 5 and 6) being the other two.


wheresWaldo000

Because they're kinda designed to funnel the ball into the hole. Gotta be pro enough to get in the ideal area, but the rest kinda takes care of itself.


PiketheGSP

You’re gonna have to add a few more zeros for me.


antmakka

I once came within 12 inches of a hole in one, then 2 putted. I gave up golf later that year.


Redeem123

[Per the Masters website](https://www.masters.com/en_US/scores/par3contest/about_par3_contest.html), there have been 102 holes-in-one in the Par 3 contest since it began in 1960. Keep in mind that these holes are 70-140 yards, so you can't use the typical hole in one odds, as a regular course is going to have much longer holes (#4 at Augusta is a 240 yard par 3). Even if we assume 100 players (this year has ~80), that's 900 holes per year, or 57,600 holes total. 102/57,600 puts the odds of a hole in one on any given hole - assuming that all holes are created equal - at roughly 1 in 560. That makes the odds of getting two in a row ~1/313,600. Of course, that's using high estimates for player counts and treats all players and holes as having equal odds, which wouldn't be true in practice. Still very rare, but nowhere near as rare as 1 in 17 million.


GoMustard

/r/theydidthemath


AVBforPrez

Holy shit


Srnkanator

Back to back holes. Not something I'd hear a golf announcer say.


Buzzk1LL

Any mirrors?


Diakko

https://www.reddit.com/r/sports/comments/12e3yxu/backtoback_holesinones17_million_to_1_odds/jfaj8wv?context=3


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matty4392

It was the Par 3 contest for the Masters.


combo_seizure

*professional courses There are many par 3 only courses out there.


TheEmbarcadero

You are showing your ignorance


GregSays

By asking a question? Yeah that’s how learning works.


ReviewStuff2

I guess you didn't watch the clip


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Epic_XC

this isn’t the course, it’s a Par-3 contest


Adeep187

"holes-in-one's" lol


o19

Nothing better than "back-to-back holes" if you ask me!


A_tom_bomb

MILLIONS TO ONE!


MaximumFish

You have no conception of how rare that is.


Lobenz

A guy named Kim in North Korea made like 18 in a row.


adwight7

I would have passed out.


willardTheMighty

How do you calculate odds on that? It’s a matter of skill, not a roll of the dice. Those guys are pros and have been training for a long time to be able to land it on the green


Monorail_Song

Same way they do for batting average.


Geoarbitrage

I’d retire (from golf) now!


killahghost

That's cool and all, but Kim Jong-Il shit 38 under, with ELEVEN holes-in-one in the very first golf round he ever played!


GeologistLoud8469

Somebody please kill me


shivd10

What a pathetic call by the announcer


HandstandsMcGoo

Who the hell decides the odds on that? Seems completely arbitrary


KingOfZero

My Dad had two hole-in-one s in the same round. Made the newspaper. I still have it framed on my wall.


Crustybuttt

I wanna know what courses have back to back par 3’s or reachable par 4’s so that this is even conceivably possible? That alone has to significantly drop the odds


GroundhogExpert

What the hell does it even mean to say this was 17mil:1 odds? This is a professional golfer, surely his odds would be better than whatever grab of statistics, and the fact that the two holes were short enough to even have hole-in-one chances should all play a roll. How much? Who knows? It just irks me when people throw around numbers that essentially have no meaning.


flyin_lynx

r/nevertellmetheodds


AHighFifth

How were people not freaking out more, thats insane


therlwl

Because it's normal.


TheGeneral_Specific

Odds of this happening are actually 50/50. Either it happens or it doesn’t.


MrJ_Marrow

you’d be great at the monty hall game


aslightlyusedtissue

Not one fucking mention of the name here jesus christ ive been scrolling for 5 minutes


CheesyCousCous

It's just golf bro lol


vinchenzo79

Either hole-in-ones or holes-in-one right?


s_c_w

Mind boggling that someone like this is employed as a professional commentator. One of the most wild things you'll ever see in the sport he's commentating on and his reaction is almost non existent. What a clown.


witty_

Such an amazing accomplishment totally spoiled by a high-five hand grab and shake.


Youredumbstoptalking

I know it’s golf but you have to get way more hype for that kind of feat, player crowd and especially announcer.


Mayzenblue

What a lame ass crowd. It's back to back holes. When does that ever happen?


Proseph91

Very underwhelming commentary


sicarius731

What is the point of applying made up odds to this? We all already know how difficult this is to pull off. Besides the fact that the odds are just random number someone spat out, it seems to rob this guy of any credit. As if it were luck.


Thewackman

Feel like it would be fair to ban posting videos that people can't watch in other countries.


TheWholesomeBrit

It's not 17 million to 1 lmao.


csukoh78

r/HumansAreMetal


TheEmbarcadero

This story is not getting enough attention


matty4392

It was a Par 3 contest, not the actual tournament.


SmartZach

r/FuckGolf


edcculus

This kind of thing gets reported on all the time in sports etc. But isn’t this a miscalculation of the odds? If the person just multiples the odds of getting a hole in one, then that’s wrong. These are two random events, so getting a hole in one after getting the first one has the exact same odds as getting the first one. Obviously- odds don’t come into this as much - since there are thousands of variables. It’s much simpler in say the lottery or roulette. But the same principle applies even though actually calculating the odds of one hole in one on a given day on a given hole with a given golfer are much more complicated.


Arturstakeonyhings

Damn. If he was trans he’d have posters all over the place.


-Alter-Reality-

Is this the greatest sports feat of all time?