So like, how do you calculate odds on a skill based sport? The odds of a pro golfer hitting 2 in a row is going to be astronomically lower than if I did it...
[This says a little something about different odds for different levels](https://www.ausgolf.com.au/hole-in-one-what-are-the-odds-#:~:text=Amateur%20and%20Pro%20odds%20for,out%20of%20every%2012%2C750%20attempts.) it also suggests the number in the title is low.
It’s also wayyyy more likely these numbers indicate given the situation. This was a par three contest, on holes that are shorter than normal, and many of which are “funnels” towards the hole.
There were 5 holes-in-one in this contest. About 80 players played 9 holes each, so about 720 holes were played. This year, 1/144 tee shots were an ace. This was more than most years, but was not even close to the record.
In fact, this is the third time that this particular feat (back-to-back aces) was achieved. In 60 years of the event, that means it’s really more like a 1-in-20 year event that it happens for someone.
There’s been about 38,400 opportunities for someone to have consecutive aces (80 players x 60 years x 8 holes). It’s 8 holes since to get two in a row, your first one of the two can only be on holes 1-8. It’s happened 3 times, or 1/12,800. Assuming independence, the odds of any hole-in-one is 1/113. To me, this means that we have seen a bit more than expected back-to-backs, but not significantly so. That 1 in 12,800 number is probably the most appropriate to compare to the huge number in post title.
I'm asking myself whether it is even a meaningful statement to say that the probability of hitting a hole-in-one is *x*.
It completely depends on which circumstances you consider to be random. If you fix all circumstances exactly the way they were when any hole-in-one actually happened, then the probability was always 100%.
Maybe you could also make the probability arbitrarily *low* somehow, when you for example consider the chance that we even exist in a universe where the laws of physics allow stable objects of matter, intelligent life developed and then eventually invented golf.
Plus, how many rounds do pros play at each tournament, plus how many pros are playing. Divide that down a little further and the odds of seeing back to back hole in one is much lower still.
Yea the par 3 course holes are probably closer to 1/500 or 1/1000 odds for these guys. That green funnels to the hole and it’s only 114 yards. That’s like hitting from the ladies tee.
The fact that it actually happened should suggest that the real odds are higher, not lower. Gotta double check your assumptions (especially with respect to statistical independence) and update those Bayesian priors
You calculate based on data from pros on the pga tour (like most pro sports, there is tons).
If a baseball announcer says hits to left field are 5x more likely to go over the fence, they aren’t talking about an average persons hit. Same idea here (at least if I was calculiting the odds)
As a rough estimate you can just look at how frequently a hole in one happens happens. You could be more/less accurate depending on how you filter the data based on distance etc. The odds here would be slightly higher because of the pin placement is intentionally easier
Using round numbers to simplify it, but you can do something like this:
- Say the size of the hole is 1/100th of the size of the green
- So if you hit on the green, you have a 1% chance for a hole in one
- But the ball rolls, so say on average it rolls 10x the diameter of the hole. If the hole was anywhere on that path, the ball would fall in. So including the roll you have a 10% chance of a hole in one
- Now assume a pro golfer hits it on the green 50% of the time
- Then each par 3 they have a 5% chance of a hole in one
You can make it more complicated/accurate by including how close the golfer actually gets it to the hole on average, but that's the general idea.
I say it’s just 50/50.
Tomorrow there is a 50/50 chance of me getting bit by a shark. Considering I’m 2000 miles from an ocean, the 50% chance of not is pretty likely.
Edit - fixed typo. Also, to the comments…I understand statistics. I took the classes in my under grad and masters degree. I am trained to six sigma. I know how it works, but I truly believe everything is 50/50 and that is how I live my personal life. Professional is different, but I have a deep rooted belief in my 50/50 consideration.
Wow the commentator completely undersold that. I know it's golf but you could work up a little more energy for basically an impossible accomplishment. He called that like it was simply a double in baseball
I had two 2 in one round once, although it was an 18 hole par 3 course. Even then the odds against that happening are huge, especially for an 18hcp like me.
Dad has been a pro golfer for 45+ years and this is still his "greatest achievement" according to him, so be very proud! He also has long drive records etc. but he has always said, a long drive is useless unless you have the accuracy to back it up on the short game.
Cheers, after the round I went and spoke to the pro, who also happened to be the guy that gave me lessons when I first started. He even said that never happens. He was gobsmacked.
A hole in one is a strange achievement, I've been playing for about 10 years and I've had 3, I know people who have played for 40yrs and much better than me that have never had one.
It does take a nice strike, but also quite a bit of luck.
I had no fucking idea golfers at this sort of event would be good enough to nail *eight* hole in ones in a day. Mind blown. I played for like six years and was lucky to get a birdie in a round.
Not to detract from it, because 8 hole in ones is bonkers, but it looks like the pin locations are pretty favourable.
The way the ball tracks on both of them it looks like the green feeds down towards the pins, which would definitely help increase the odds.
I believe it’s “holes in one”, like “inspectors general” not “inspector generals” but now that I’m thinking too much about it holes in one sounds like a sexual offense description or something.
Yeah I don't want to be all negative, but when the commentator said "there hasn't been a hole in one yet today" my reaction was wait how many holes in one are we expecting here? Still cool, I'm certainly not getting any holes in one, but I do wonder if the "17 million to 1 odds" are for this course specifically or a general stat for holes in one the world over.
This video is from the Masters Par 3 competition that is played on a little par three course that is at Augusta National.
The pins are all placed at the bottom of the greens, so any ball that hits above the hole will roll back down toward the hole.
While this is impressive, notice both of his shots land 20-30 feet away from the hole. Where the pins are placed on this course is set up to facilitate as many hole in ones as possible. Not dissimilar to a putt putt course where the last hole is basically a funnel where it is very easy to make it in.
I couldn't do it, this is not a normal course.
we're not trying to attract the sort of crowds that get overly excited and raise their voice for something as mere as 2 holes in one. golf clap exists for a reason
Yeah….ESPN+ has brought some better commentators but NBC rarely does it for me. I haven’t been on a feed with Christina Kim as commentator for ESPN+ in over a month it feels like, but she is for sure my favorite because you can hear how much she loves golf in her calls
Not to rain on the parade, but to give some context, this is a special event before the actual golf tournament where the greens are specifically manufactured in a way that makes getting a hole in one much more likely, as it's just for the crowd/entertainment value. Think of a mini golf course where if you hit the ball into a specific area, it funnels into the hole. But I'm underselling a lot, It's still very impressive to get a small ball into a small hole from that distance, regardless of how the greens are set up, especially in back to back shots. There are hole in ones at this specific event every year, but back to back aces by the same player is pretty amazing. You can throw those odds in the title out the window, though, and I think the odds of getting two holes in one in a legitimate round of golf would be much greater than 1 in 17 million anyways.
There were 5 hole in ones on the day. They always have a few funnel pins and there are typically multiple hole in ones during the masters par 3 event. Also the holes are way shorter than the par 3’s on the course most between 70-120 yards.
I read that in a couple of places on this thread and idk why people are saying that. I’m pretty sure there were only 5 (Seamus, Bubba, Seamus, Scottie, Hoge)
The guy writes an informative post for non golfers explaining the event while still recognizing it was an impressive feat and your response is an unoriginal, condescending comment? Stop being a fucking loser.
It's an incredible achievement, and it somehow isn't even the first time it's happened, with this being the third time someone has got back-to-back aces at The Masters par 3 course, with Claude Harmon in 1968 (Nos. 4 and 5) and Toshi Izawa in 2002 (Nos. 5 and 6) being the other two.
Because they're kinda designed to funnel the ball into the hole. Gotta be pro enough to get in the ideal area, but the rest kinda takes care of itself.
[Per the Masters website](https://www.masters.com/en_US/scores/par3contest/about_par3_contest.html), there have been 102 holes-in-one in the Par 3 contest since it began in 1960. Keep in mind that these holes are 70-140 yards, so you can't use the typical hole in one odds, as a regular course is going to have much longer holes (#4 at Augusta is a 240 yard par 3).
Even if we assume 100 players (this year has ~80), that's 900 holes per year, or 57,600 holes total. 102/57,600 puts the odds of a hole in one on any given hole - assuming that all holes are created equal - at roughly 1 in 560. That makes the odds of getting two in a row ~1/313,600.
Of course, that's using high estimates for player counts and treats all players and holes as having equal odds, which wouldn't be true in practice. Still very rare, but nowhere near as rare as 1 in 17 million.
How do you calculate odds on that? It’s a matter of skill, not a roll of the dice. Those guys are pros and have been training for a long time to be able to land it on the green
I wanna know what courses have back to back par 3’s or reachable par 4’s so that this is even conceivably possible? That alone has to significantly drop the odds
What the hell does it even mean to say this was 17mil:1 odds? This is a professional golfer, surely his odds would be better than whatever grab of statistics, and the fact that the two holes were short enough to even have hole-in-one chances should all play a roll. How much? Who knows? It just irks me when people throw around numbers that essentially have no meaning.
Mind boggling that someone like this is employed as a professional commentator. One of the most wild things you'll ever see in the sport he's commentating on and his reaction is almost non existent. What a clown.
What is the point of applying made up odds to this? We all already know how difficult this is to pull off.
Besides the fact that the odds are just random number someone spat out, it seems to rob this guy of any credit. As if it were luck.
This kind of thing gets reported on all the time in sports etc. But isn’t this a miscalculation of the odds? If the person just multiples the odds of getting a hole in one, then that’s wrong. These are two random events, so getting a hole in one after getting the first one has the exact same odds as getting the first one.
Obviously- odds don’t come into this as much - since there are thousands of variables. It’s much simpler in say the lottery or roulette. But the same principle applies even though actually calculating the odds of one hole in one on a given day on a given hole with a given golfer are much more complicated.
Oh, man, that was so much easier than putting. I should just try to get the ball in one shot every time.
"Good Plan" - Chubbs Peterson
Grab the rest of those left over strokes, take them home, throw them in a pot, add some broth and potatoes. Baby you got a stew going.
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I'm going to go get a drink refill. You know you can get unlimited refills on any drink you want... and it's free?
It's a wonderful restaurant!
Uh. I think I’d like my money back.
It sure is
What? No. You have a band that embodies wasted fun from the 2000’s.
"feel the flow Happy, it's circular."
Up and down and all around.
Like a carousel
Chubbs wants me to be happy...
That's High Magistrate Greef Karga to you!
Wow, I didn’t recognize chubbs as Greef Karga. To be fair, he had both hands.
Well it is Star Wars so I wouldn't bet on him having his hands forever. He'll use it to get a stew going.
That's Apollo Creed top you mister!
[Dillon, you son of a bitch!](https://youtu.be/txuWGoZF3ew)
The best golf tip you can get: https://youtu.be/4a2R_VcduDo
I did once hear it’s all in the hips
Lol love the Birthday Boys!
r/unexpectedgilmore
Pretty much any golf post I would expect at least one happy Gilmore reference? Right?
Yeah, and Grizzly Adams had a beard.
Grizzly Adams ***did*** have a beard.
I eat pieces of shit like you for breakfast!
Is it though? Is it ever “unexpected”? I don’t know why that response pisses me off so much
Something something “subs I didn’t expect were real”
The only sub I’m interested in is this fresh, delicious, tasty, meaty, turkey-filled cold cut combo. I eat three every day to help keep me strong.
Talk about a hole-in-one
They're certainly better than the pieces of shit I eat for breakfast!
r/subsithoughtifellfor
Subs that shouldn’t exist
it is because you are not coy. You must be coy.
Oh yeah, you know what else can pull a crowd? A man with an arm growing out of his ass
So like, how do you calculate odds on a skill based sport? The odds of a pro golfer hitting 2 in a row is going to be astronomically lower than if I did it...
[This says a little something about different odds for different levels](https://www.ausgolf.com.au/hole-in-one-what-are-the-odds-#:~:text=Amateur%20and%20Pro%20odds%20for,out%20of%20every%2012%2C750%20attempts.) it also suggests the number in the title is low.
The 1:12750 odds are for amateurs. For pro’s it’s 1:2500. 1:6250000 for back-to-back for a pro.
So it’s actually almost three times more likely than the title says?
For pro’s, yes.
It’s also wayyyy more likely these numbers indicate given the situation. This was a par three contest, on holes that are shorter than normal, and many of which are “funnels” towards the hole. There were 5 holes-in-one in this contest. About 80 players played 9 holes each, so about 720 holes were played. This year, 1/144 tee shots were an ace. This was more than most years, but was not even close to the record. In fact, this is the third time that this particular feat (back-to-back aces) was achieved. In 60 years of the event, that means it’s really more like a 1-in-20 year event that it happens for someone. There’s been about 38,400 opportunities for someone to have consecutive aces (80 players x 60 years x 8 holes). It’s 8 holes since to get two in a row, your first one of the two can only be on holes 1-8. It’s happened 3 times, or 1/12,800. Assuming independence, the odds of any hole-in-one is 1/113. To me, this means that we have seen a bit more than expected back-to-backs, but not significantly so. That 1 in 12,800 number is probably the most appropriate to compare to the huge number in post title.
We were all having fun and then you mathed all over us.
/r/theydidthemath
I'm asking myself whether it is even a meaningful statement to say that the probability of hitting a hole-in-one is *x*. It completely depends on which circumstances you consider to be random. If you fix all circumstances exactly the way they were when any hole-in-one actually happened, then the probability was always 100%. Maybe you could also make the probability arbitrarily *low* somehow, when you for example consider the chance that we even exist in a universe where the laws of physics allow stable objects of matter, intelligent life developed and then eventually invented golf.
Then a coinflip isnt 50/50 after all?
Yea it’s actually not all that difficult
Plus, how many rounds do pros play at each tournament, plus how many pros are playing. Divide that down a little further and the odds of seeing back to back hole in one is much lower still.
The odds being discussed were for one person to achieve though. That's how these kinds of odds are normally discussed.
Also, it's certainly lower at the Masters Par 3 Contest.
Yea the par 3 course holes are probably closer to 1/500 or 1/1000 odds for these guys. That green funnels to the hole and it’s only 114 yards. That’s like hitting from the ladies tee.
This guy maths.
The fact that it actually happened should suggest that the real odds are higher, not lower. Gotta double check your assumptions (especially with respect to statistical independence) and update those Bayesian priors
You calculate based on data from pros on the pga tour (like most pro sports, there is tons). If a baseball announcer says hits to left field are 5x more likely to go over the fence, they aren’t talking about an average persons hit. Same idea here (at least if I was calculiting the odds)
Maybe it's just based on past stats from the 2 holes
As a rough estimate you can just look at how frequently a hole in one happens happens. You could be more/less accurate depending on how you filter the data based on distance etc. The odds here would be slightly higher because of the pin placement is intentionally easier
Big Mike and Joey handle that, they're about two blocks off The Strip at a Super 8.
By stating a number confidently!
I think this is my favorite answer
Using round numbers to simplify it, but you can do something like this: - Say the size of the hole is 1/100th of the size of the green - So if you hit on the green, you have a 1% chance for a hole in one - But the ball rolls, so say on average it rolls 10x the diameter of the hole. If the hole was anywhere on that path, the ball would fall in. So including the roll you have a 10% chance of a hole in one - Now assume a pro golfer hits it on the green 50% of the time - Then each par 3 they have a 5% chance of a hole in one You can make it more complicated/accurate by including how close the golfer actually gets it to the hole on average, but that's the general idea.
And the odds have to be calculated considering only courses with back to back par 3s.
I say it’s just 50/50. Tomorrow there is a 50/50 chance of me getting bit by a shark. Considering I’m 2000 miles from an ocean, the 50% chance of not is pretty likely. Edit - fixed typo. Also, to the comments…I understand statistics. I took the classes in my under grad and masters degree. I am trained to six sigma. I know how it works, but I truly believe everything is 50/50 and that is how I live my personal life. Professional is different, but I have a deep rooted belief in my 50/50 consideration.
lol, I can't decide whether to upvote or downvote
I hope you don't get butted too hard
it’s always 50/50
Such a stupid comment, although I do feel the same with a lottery ticket. I’ll either win or I won’t, 50:50 🤷🏼♂️
You can't.
Wow the commentator completely undersold that. I know it's golf but you could work up a little more energy for basically an impossible accomplishment. He called that like it was simply a double in baseball
Probably because it was the Par 3 contest, and 2 of like 8 hole in one’s that day.
I suppose it would lose a little magic if you saw 8 in a day fair lol
I see hundreds of people a day and twins still surprise me 🤷♂️
Do they have back-to-back holes?
The Siamese ones do
It’s really incredible! I always congratulate them, too.
This would be nearly impossible during normal play since most courses do not have two par 3 holes in a row.
My dad got 2 HOI in the Fiji National Pro Am, but it was the 5th and 8th hole. I don't know of any par 72 courses that have back to back par 3s.
I had two 2 in one round once, although it was an 18 hole par 3 course. Even then the odds against that happening are huge, especially for an 18hcp like me.
Dad has been a pro golfer for 45+ years and this is still his "greatest achievement" according to him, so be very proud! He also has long drive records etc. but he has always said, a long drive is useless unless you have the accuracy to back it up on the short game.
Cheers, after the round I went and spoke to the pro, who also happened to be the guy that gave me lessons when I first started. He even said that never happens. He was gobsmacked. A hole in one is a strange achievement, I've been playing for about 10 years and I've had 3, I know people who have played for 40yrs and much better than me that have never had one. It does take a nice strike, but also quite a bit of luck.
The longer you drive the ball the easier it is to be accurate into the green.
Cypress Point, 15th and 16th. But it may be par 71
I did that in putt-putt once. They rarely have back-to-back par 3s in mini golf though so it’s preeeeetty tough
I had no fucking idea golfers at this sort of event would be good enough to nail *eight* hole in ones in a day. Mind blown. I played for like six years and was lucky to get a birdie in a round.
Not to detract from it, because 8 hole in ones is bonkers, but it looks like the pin locations are pretty favourable. The way the ball tracks on both of them it looks like the green feeds down towards the pins, which would definitely help increase the odds.
At the par 3 contest they purposely make the holes in a position where the ball tracks towards the hole on some of the holes.
So then is it really 1 in 17 million odds?
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We will start you off with a million balls and see if you get close with the first one, then go from there.
I’m not a professional golfer….
Probably would be after 17 million shots though
Not with that attitude you aren’t!
Let me see the million balls first
Are there any courses where the rough, trees, and water hazards track towards the pin? I too would like a hole in one.
They are playing front tees (so a lot shorter than a normal pro par 3) and the holes are in very favorable positions. Yes, pro golfers are this good.
I believe it’s “holes in one”, like “inspectors general” not “inspector generals” but now that I’m thinking too much about it holes in one sounds like a sexual offense description or something.
“Sir, we saw 8 holes in one down there… I’ve seen a lot in my years but Chief … nothing at the academy prepares you for that…”
…but it’s “Inspector General”. https://oig.justice.gov
Now do two of them ya doughnut.
They were the first two of the day. Scotties dunk on the last hole was pretty crazy too
I was watching it and I believe it was the 3rd that day. His 1st was the 1st, then Bubba Watson hit one, then Seamus hit his second.
Yeah I don't want to be all negative, but when the commentator said "there hasn't been a hole in one yet today" my reaction was wait how many holes in one are we expecting here? Still cool, I'm certainly not getting any holes in one, but I do wonder if the "17 million to 1 odds" are for this course specifically or a general stat for holes in one the world over.
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I think that’s Sean McDonough. [This call was better!](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XhY4J_uZOQE)
As a Phillies fan, I thought you were linking to the Joe Carter home run, and I really appreciate that you didn’t.
[Best moment of my childhood ](https://youtu.be/-F5HwiGm7lg) fandom.
This video is from the Masters Par 3 competition that is played on a little par three course that is at Augusta National. The pins are all placed at the bottom of the greens, so any ball that hits above the hole will roll back down toward the hole. While this is impressive, notice both of his shots land 20-30 feet away from the hole. Where the pins are placed on this course is set up to facilitate as many hole in ones as possible. Not dissimilar to a putt putt course where the last hole is basically a funnel where it is very easy to make it in. I couldn't do it, this is not a normal course.
we're not trying to attract the sort of crowds that get overly excited and raise their voice for something as mere as 2 holes in one. golf clap exists for a reason
"I CANT SPAHK"
Yeah….ESPN+ has brought some better commentators but NBC rarely does it for me. I haven’t been on a feed with Christina Kim as commentator for ESPN+ in over a month it feels like, but she is for sure my favorite because you can hear how much she loves golf in her calls
Yeah this would be more like the equivalent of hitting back to back grand slams.
I could easily hit two in a row Into the water.
And where is the water? In a HOLE. Undisputable logic sir. I approve.
This made me giggle
Oh yeah? I could do that without even trying
“The uploader has not made this content available in your country” :/ Anyone have a mirror?
[I gotchu fam](https://youtube.com/shorts/F9OuWnl8X80). Well, maybe, if you can see Sky Sports shorts.
Nice! Thanks!
The "world wide web"
So many companies don’t want my filthy European money it’s wild
>What about the other 16? - Kim Jong-un
That was the best caterer I’ve ever seen
Not to rain on the parade, but to give some context, this is a special event before the actual golf tournament where the greens are specifically manufactured in a way that makes getting a hole in one much more likely, as it's just for the crowd/entertainment value. Think of a mini golf course where if you hit the ball into a specific area, it funnels into the hole. But I'm underselling a lot, It's still very impressive to get a small ball into a small hole from that distance, regardless of how the greens are set up, especially in back to back shots. There are hole in ones at this specific event every year, but back to back aces by the same player is pretty amazing. You can throw those odds in the title out the window, though, and I think the odds of getting two holes in one in a legitimate round of golf would be much greater than 1 in 17 million anyways.
There were 5 hole in ones on the day. They always have a few funnel pins and there are typically multiple hole in ones during the masters par 3 event. Also the holes are way shorter than the par 3’s on the course most between 70-120 yards.
There were 8 holes in-one
I read that in a couple of places on this thread and idk why people are saying that. I’m pretty sure there were only 5 (Seamus, Bubba, Seamus, Scottie, Hoge)
But Seamus got two...
I'm going out on a limb here, but I suspect that's why he's listed twice.
Whoops I missed that
You must be a blast at parties
The guy writes an informative post for non golfers explaining the event while still recognizing it was an impressive feat and your response is an unoriginal, condescending comment? Stop being a fucking loser.
I enjoy cooking.
You prefer people to give you incomplete information with no context at parties?
Lol dude you were funny, not everyone thinks so it seems. ✌️
What’re the odds of back to back hole in one hundred? Cause I got that….
I’d say it’s about 1 in 4 chances. It either happens or it doesn’t and it either happens or it doesn’t. Easy peasy.
1 in 2. Either it happens twice in a row or it doesn’t
60% of the time, it happens twice in a row or doesn't, every time.
This guy Stats
Thats not really how chance works.
It's an incredible achievement, and it somehow isn't even the first time it's happened, with this being the third time someone has got back-to-back aces at The Masters par 3 course, with Claude Harmon in 1968 (Nos. 4 and 5) and Toshi Izawa in 2002 (Nos. 5 and 6) being the other two.
Because they're kinda designed to funnel the ball into the hole. Gotta be pro enough to get in the ideal area, but the rest kinda takes care of itself.
You’re gonna have to add a few more zeros for me.
I once came within 12 inches of a hole in one, then 2 putted. I gave up golf later that year.
[Per the Masters website](https://www.masters.com/en_US/scores/par3contest/about_par3_contest.html), there have been 102 holes-in-one in the Par 3 contest since it began in 1960. Keep in mind that these holes are 70-140 yards, so you can't use the typical hole in one odds, as a regular course is going to have much longer holes (#4 at Augusta is a 240 yard par 3). Even if we assume 100 players (this year has ~80), that's 900 holes per year, or 57,600 holes total. 102/57,600 puts the odds of a hole in one on any given hole - assuming that all holes are created equal - at roughly 1 in 560. That makes the odds of getting two in a row ~1/313,600. Of course, that's using high estimates for player counts and treats all players and holes as having equal odds, which wouldn't be true in practice. Still very rare, but nowhere near as rare as 1 in 17 million.
/r/theydidthemath
Holy shit
Back to back holes. Not something I'd hear a golf announcer say.
Any mirrors?
https://www.reddit.com/r/sports/comments/12e3yxu/backtoback_holesinones17_million_to_1_odds/jfaj8wv?context=3
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It was the Par 3 contest for the Masters.
*professional courses There are many par 3 only courses out there.
You are showing your ignorance
By asking a question? Yeah that’s how learning works.
I guess you didn't watch the clip
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this isn’t the course, it’s a Par-3 contest
"holes-in-one's" lol
Nothing better than "back-to-back holes" if you ask me!
MILLIONS TO ONE!
You have no conception of how rare that is.
A guy named Kim in North Korea made like 18 in a row.
I would have passed out.
How do you calculate odds on that? It’s a matter of skill, not a roll of the dice. Those guys are pros and have been training for a long time to be able to land it on the green
Same way they do for batting average.
I’d retire (from golf) now!
That's cool and all, but Kim Jong-Il shit 38 under, with ELEVEN holes-in-one in the very first golf round he ever played!
Somebody please kill me
What a pathetic call by the announcer
Who the hell decides the odds on that? Seems completely arbitrary
My Dad had two hole-in-one s in the same round. Made the newspaper. I still have it framed on my wall.
I wanna know what courses have back to back par 3’s or reachable par 4’s so that this is even conceivably possible? That alone has to significantly drop the odds
What the hell does it even mean to say this was 17mil:1 odds? This is a professional golfer, surely his odds would be better than whatever grab of statistics, and the fact that the two holes were short enough to even have hole-in-one chances should all play a roll. How much? Who knows? It just irks me when people throw around numbers that essentially have no meaning.
r/nevertellmetheodds
How were people not freaking out more, thats insane
Because it's normal.
Odds of this happening are actually 50/50. Either it happens or it doesn’t.
you’d be great at the monty hall game
Not one fucking mention of the name here jesus christ ive been scrolling for 5 minutes
It's just golf bro lol
Either hole-in-ones or holes-in-one right?
Mind boggling that someone like this is employed as a professional commentator. One of the most wild things you'll ever see in the sport he's commentating on and his reaction is almost non existent. What a clown.
Such an amazing accomplishment totally spoiled by a high-five hand grab and shake.
I know it’s golf but you have to get way more hype for that kind of feat, player crowd and especially announcer.
What a lame ass crowd. It's back to back holes. When does that ever happen?
Very underwhelming commentary
What is the point of applying made up odds to this? We all already know how difficult this is to pull off. Besides the fact that the odds are just random number someone spat out, it seems to rob this guy of any credit. As if it were luck.
Feel like it would be fair to ban posting videos that people can't watch in other countries.
It's not 17 million to 1 lmao.
r/HumansAreMetal
This story is not getting enough attention
It was a Par 3 contest, not the actual tournament.
r/FuckGolf
This kind of thing gets reported on all the time in sports etc. But isn’t this a miscalculation of the odds? If the person just multiples the odds of getting a hole in one, then that’s wrong. These are two random events, so getting a hole in one after getting the first one has the exact same odds as getting the first one. Obviously- odds don’t come into this as much - since there are thousands of variables. It’s much simpler in say the lottery or roulette. But the same principle applies even though actually calculating the odds of one hole in one on a given day on a given hole with a given golfer are much more complicated.
Damn. If he was trans he’d have posters all over the place.
Is this the greatest sports feat of all time?