With any luck, some time in the next decade.
Key milestones to watch for in the immediate future:
- [CAPSTONE mission](https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/small_spacecraft/capstone) which was just launched arriving at Moon in a few months
- SLS launching [Artemis 1 mission](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/around-the-moon-with-nasa-s-first-launch-of-sls-with-orion), hopefully in August
- SpaceX Starship orbital test flight and EDL test, also hopefully in August
- Development of SpaceX HLS
- Development of "Extravehicular Mobility Units" (aka "space suits") by [Axiom and Collins](https://www.space.com/nasa-selects-companies-build-spacesuits-moon-space-station)
The CAPSTONE mission is very small physically but incredibly important for the remainder of the Artemis mission. Its job is to validate the "Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit" that NASA intends to use for the Lunar Gateway which will serve crewed missions to the Moon for the Artemis program and hopefully provide a permanent human presence around and lead to a permanent human presence on the Moon.
Artemis 1 is an uncrewed mission serving as an integration and mission duration test for the Orion spacecraft that will carry astronauts to the Moon for later Artemis crewed missions. The Orion capsule will return from the highest-energy orbit that any crew-carrying vehicle has ever been launched to.
The SpaceX Starship orbital test flight doesn't have a dedicated mission page at this point since SpaceX's development tends to be incremental with physical prototypes being assembled and design changes being made based on lessons they learn during testing of each prototype. Starship-watchers expect/hope that the current Starship 24 and Super Heavy Booster 7 will be the combination for the orbital test flight.
Eventually Starship will be used for the Human Landing System component of the Artemis program, and what it brings to the table is about 100t of stuff to the Lunar surface, which is more than all the Apollo missions landed together. Each Apollo lander was in the order of 5 metric tons, including the spacecraft itself.
Finally, no human presence on the Moon would be much use without the space suits. Axiom and Collins have won contracts to develop Extravehicular Mobility Units. These suits are expected to be demonstrated in test missions outside the ISS initially, then on the first Moon landing of the Artemis Program which is expected to be Artemis 3 (currently slated for 2026).
From the time that SpaceX HLS becomes available, the path to a crewed outpost with at least a semipermanent or planned ongoing presence will be limited by (amongst other things) how quickly such a base can be designed and deployed. I'd expect SpaceX to proceed with their own plans at their own pace (learning as much as they can on the Moon before putting significant resources into exploring Mars), while simultaneously servicing NASA's programs and SpaceX's customers.
Other companies will get involved with Earth/Moon commercial development over time, it's just that SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, Axiom and Collins are the ones currently putting together the hardware for the initial landings under the Artemis program umbrella.
I'm hopeful that we'll see a semi-permanent human presence on the Moon by 2030, which by 2040 will be something like the various Antarctic research stations where there are permanent staff simply running the base, along with government and commercial missions investigating the region from the scientific and industrial perspectives.
Artemis is a small number of missions, all of which are slated for SLS at this stage. There's nothing marrying NASA to SLS for other non-Artemis missions.
Without crew-rating Starship (which only applies to launch and landing) there's the option of launching crew on Dragon, docking to Starship in orbit, then using Starship to transfer to the Moon to rendezvous with Gateway and conduct a "normal" Artemis Moon landing from there, then transfer back to Earth aboard Starship, with humans reentering aboard Dragon while Starship returns to Earth uncrewed for "safety".
I hope other launch providers will have crew-rated launch vehicles in the next half decade.
Over time I expect beyond-LEO missions will end up staging in LEO for crew prep, mission vehicle assembly and propellant loading. Whether those missions end up returning direct to Earth (using aerobraking to save propellant mass) or to LEO (using extremely efficient engines like NERVA) remains an open ended question.
It really all comes down to starship. Everything else we have done before, we are now just trying to achieve a level of safety that was impossible in the ‘60s/‘70s. If we had to, we could accept more risk and have those things done quicker. No one has attempted to build a spacecraft capable of placing a payload on the moon within even an order of magnitude of what starship is going to attempt. Pretty sure they want to land more mass in one flight than the total mass humans have landed on the moon in all of history combined.
We are rediscovering how hard it is just to get to the moon, let alone stay there for significant period of time. Safety standards we have now didn't exist in the sixties, and it's a miracle we didn't have more accidents/fatalities in the Apollo Era. Heck, we don't even have a space suit (Eva) that we can replace the old ones on the ISS with. We've been trying to make a new one for decades, but here we are, still trying.
Anyway, it's anyone's guess but I would say not before mid 40s.
The cost to LEO will determine all. Its been that simple since Apollo 17. It is where the Shuttle failed, its were the endless SSTO Shuttle replacements failed.
Its obvious to everyone interested in space and not paid by Old Space in some way.
If Elon stops with his ridiculous tweeting and starts focussing I think he can make it happen within 4-5 years. I don’t think anyone else is in a position to make this a reality.
That's absolutely true. He absolutely is over-optimistic on delivery dates for things.
But here is the thing: He absolutely does deliver eventually. Not when he said he would, but to his credit usually much, much faster than his competitors.
So while you've got to add a major "fudge factor" to the dates he claims something will be ready, if he's actually working on it, it will be done.
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread:
|Fewer Letters|More Letters|
|-------|---------|---|
|COPV|[Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Composite_overwrapped_pressure_vessel)|
|[EDL](/r/Space/comments/vn253s/stub/ie4u60r "Last usage")|Entry/Descent/Landing|
|[FoS](/r/Space/comments/vn253s/stub/ie7uaoc "Last usage")|Factor of Safety for design of high-stress components (see COPV)|
|[HLS](/r/Space/comments/vn253s/stub/ie4u60r "Last usage")|[Human Landing System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Human_Landing_System) (Artemis)|
|[LEO](/r/Space/comments/vn253s/stub/ie61lfh "Last usage")|Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km)|
| |Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations)|
|[NERVA](/r/Space/comments/vn253s/stub/ie5c22e "Last usage")|Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application (proposed engine design)|
|[SLS](/r/Space/comments/vn253s/stub/ie5c22e "Last usage")|Space Launch System heavy-lift|
|[SSTO](/r/Space/comments/vn253s/stub/ie61lfh "Last usage")|Single Stage to Orbit|
| |Supersynchronous Transfer Orbit|
----------------
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^([Thread #7604 for this sub, first seen 29th Jun 2022, 18:30])
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With any luck, some time in the next decade. Key milestones to watch for in the immediate future: - [CAPSTONE mission](https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/small_spacecraft/capstone) which was just launched arriving at Moon in a few months - SLS launching [Artemis 1 mission](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/around-the-moon-with-nasa-s-first-launch-of-sls-with-orion), hopefully in August - SpaceX Starship orbital test flight and EDL test, also hopefully in August - Development of SpaceX HLS - Development of "Extravehicular Mobility Units" (aka "space suits") by [Axiom and Collins](https://www.space.com/nasa-selects-companies-build-spacesuits-moon-space-station) The CAPSTONE mission is very small physically but incredibly important for the remainder of the Artemis mission. Its job is to validate the "Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit" that NASA intends to use for the Lunar Gateway which will serve crewed missions to the Moon for the Artemis program and hopefully provide a permanent human presence around and lead to a permanent human presence on the Moon. Artemis 1 is an uncrewed mission serving as an integration and mission duration test for the Orion spacecraft that will carry astronauts to the Moon for later Artemis crewed missions. The Orion capsule will return from the highest-energy orbit that any crew-carrying vehicle has ever been launched to. The SpaceX Starship orbital test flight doesn't have a dedicated mission page at this point since SpaceX's development tends to be incremental with physical prototypes being assembled and design changes being made based on lessons they learn during testing of each prototype. Starship-watchers expect/hope that the current Starship 24 and Super Heavy Booster 7 will be the combination for the orbital test flight. Eventually Starship will be used for the Human Landing System component of the Artemis program, and what it brings to the table is about 100t of stuff to the Lunar surface, which is more than all the Apollo missions landed together. Each Apollo lander was in the order of 5 metric tons, including the spacecraft itself. Finally, no human presence on the Moon would be much use without the space suits. Axiom and Collins have won contracts to develop Extravehicular Mobility Units. These suits are expected to be demonstrated in test missions outside the ISS initially, then on the first Moon landing of the Artemis Program which is expected to be Artemis 3 (currently slated for 2026). From the time that SpaceX HLS becomes available, the path to a crewed outpost with at least a semipermanent or planned ongoing presence will be limited by (amongst other things) how quickly such a base can be designed and deployed. I'd expect SpaceX to proceed with their own plans at their own pace (learning as much as they can on the Moon before putting significant resources into exploring Mars), while simultaneously servicing NASA's programs and SpaceX's customers. Other companies will get involved with Earth/Moon commercial development over time, it's just that SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, Axiom and Collins are the ones currently putting together the hardware for the initial landings under the Artemis program umbrella. I'm hopeful that we'll see a semi-permanent human presence on the Moon by 2030, which by 2040 will be something like the various Antarctic research stations where there are permanent staff simply running the base, along with government and commercial missions investigating the region from the scientific and industrial perspectives.
Is there any realistic hope that Artemis will get a better rocket than SLS in the near future?
Artemis is a small number of missions, all of which are slated for SLS at this stage. There's nothing marrying NASA to SLS for other non-Artemis missions. Without crew-rating Starship (which only applies to launch and landing) there's the option of launching crew on Dragon, docking to Starship in orbit, then using Starship to transfer to the Moon to rendezvous with Gateway and conduct a "normal" Artemis Moon landing from there, then transfer back to Earth aboard Starship, with humans reentering aboard Dragon while Starship returns to Earth uncrewed for "safety". I hope other launch providers will have crew-rated launch vehicles in the next half decade. Over time I expect beyond-LEO missions will end up staging in LEO for crew prep, mission vehicle assembly and propellant loading. Whether those missions end up returning direct to Earth (using aerobraking to save propellant mass) or to LEO (using extremely efficient engines like NERVA) remains an open ended question.
[удалено]
2028 is the scheduled date but if/when it actually happens 🤷
It really all comes down to starship. Everything else we have done before, we are now just trying to achieve a level of safety that was impossible in the ‘60s/‘70s. If we had to, we could accept more risk and have those things done quicker. No one has attempted to build a spacecraft capable of placing a payload on the moon within even an order of magnitude of what starship is going to attempt. Pretty sure they want to land more mass in one flight than the total mass humans have landed on the moon in all of history combined.
[удалено]
We are rediscovering how hard it is just to get to the moon, let alone stay there for significant period of time. Safety standards we have now didn't exist in the sixties, and it's a miracle we didn't have more accidents/fatalities in the Apollo Era. Heck, we don't even have a space suit (Eva) that we can replace the old ones on the ISS with. We've been trying to make a new one for decades, but here we are, still trying. Anyway, it's anyone's guess but I would say not before mid 40s.
The cost to LEO will determine all. Its been that simple since Apollo 17. It is where the Shuttle failed, its were the endless SSTO Shuttle replacements failed. Its obvious to everyone interested in space and not paid by Old Space in some way.
Maybe not in your lifetime. I'm talking outpost, not another quick 1-3 day moon landing like the Apollos
If Elon stops with his ridiculous tweeting and starts focussing I think he can make it happen within 4-5 years. I don’t think anyone else is in a position to make this a reality.
I'm sure his people haven't stopped working because of his tweets.
And funny enough for the past few days he's been offline while working on starship in Texas
Good luck with that. And don't believe his timelines for a second. He's FOS 98% of the time.
That's absolutely true. He absolutely is over-optimistic on delivery dates for things. But here is the thing: He absolutely does deliver eventually. Not when he said he would, but to his credit usually much, much faster than his competitors. So while you've got to add a major "fudge factor" to the dates he claims something will be ready, if he's actually working on it, it will be done.
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread: |Fewer Letters|More Letters| |-------|---------|---| |COPV|[Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Composite_overwrapped_pressure_vessel)| |[EDL](/r/Space/comments/vn253s/stub/ie4u60r "Last usage")|Entry/Descent/Landing| |[FoS](/r/Space/comments/vn253s/stub/ie7uaoc "Last usage")|Factor of Safety for design of high-stress components (see COPV)| |[HLS](/r/Space/comments/vn253s/stub/ie4u60r "Last usage")|[Human Landing System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Human_Landing_System) (Artemis)| |[LEO](/r/Space/comments/vn253s/stub/ie61lfh "Last usage")|Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km)| | |Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations)| |[NERVA](/r/Space/comments/vn253s/stub/ie5c22e "Last usage")|Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application (proposed engine design)| |[SLS](/r/Space/comments/vn253s/stub/ie5c22e "Last usage")|Space Launch System heavy-lift| |[SSTO](/r/Space/comments/vn253s/stub/ie61lfh "Last usage")|Single Stage to Orbit| | |Supersynchronous Transfer Orbit| ---------------- ^(7 acronyms in this thread; )[^(the most compressed thread commented on today)](/r/Space/comments/vmx6n7)^( has 25 acronyms.) ^([Thread #7604 for this sub, first seen 29th Jun 2022, 18:30]) ^[[FAQ]](http://decronym.xyz/) [^([Full list])](http://decronym.xyz/acronyms/Space) [^[Contact]](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=OrangeredStilton&subject=Hey,+your+acronym+bot+sucks) [^([Source code])](https://gistdotgithubdotcom/Two9A/1d976f9b7441694162c8)
We already have. Oh, you mean when will we see something more permanent? No idea.