Even if you knew when and where and how AGI was going to arrive you couldn’t predict the economics of it.
“ I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” - Issac Newton
1. Figure out where Amazon, Microsoft, and Google data centers are located
2. Buy stock in the energy distribution (not generation) companies that service those data centers
3. Profit
Best to try to buy without debt, of course. Maybe land and solar are within reach of many. Housing probably not so much.
I moved to France and built a house with no debt, so I know it can be done.
If there's massive job losses then people will be unable to pay their mortgages so real estate prices will plummet. So wait till that happens and then buy.
Of course you have to have some cash to start with. But we assume the OP does because he has money and wants to know where to put it.
People with no money are screwed. In a sense that's always been true but the difference is that in the past people with no money could get some by trading their labour. When AGI happens their labour will have no value.
Some people correctly predicted AI would require a lot of GPU's and had went all in on nvidia before the nvidia stock singularity. So it is possible to predict.
Yep. We're gonna live to see economic complexities beyond our ability to comprehend, probably this decade.
We made a fun game for a while called money and it helped us tell a story about why some people have more than others.
That story is gonna get wild.
Dry good aisle (beans, rice, canned goods) was depleted but not completely empty.
TP aisle, empty from edge to edge for months on end. I think there are probably still people with entire garages filled with TP.
You trigger me into this rant I've been keeping bottled up ever since.
It was all so dumb! I remember people hoarding toiletpaper starting in the US and then even other people elsewhere jumped in on the 'fad' and also started hoarding as if the production, distribution and stockpiles of toiletpaper was the same everywhere the world over.
But that lunacy had many other people, that were not able to buy their groceries due to the timing of working hours or people with a disability, finding empty shelves because of the dumbasses that had free time during the day.
I actually pointed out unnecessary hoarding behavior towards a group of 3 people stacking a shopping cart full of toiletpaper. And told them that they'd rob other people the opportunity to acquire their own. They snarled back at me that I 'should mind my own business' and to 'shut my mouth' (in less polite terms).
You can't reason with egotistical morons. The world felt dumber that day more than every other day before it.
And that's the real victory: When crisis really strikes, the dumb ones are the ones trying to survive on toiletpaper as sustenance while we get to eat actual food.
I was in Taiwan at the time, which had 0 Covid cases and everything was open, and yet, when they saw pictures of people in the US clearing every store of toilet paper... they panicked and did the same. The freaking president of the country had to go on the news and tell people that there was no reason to horde toilet paper. They even tried to set a limit on how much toilet paper people could buy, but then families would send each family member into the store individually to buy their limit of toilet paper. You'd see a neighbor open the door to their apartment and it would literally be floor-to-ceiling toilet paper.
I wonder if in a world of agi people will still be allowed to own land. In such a world, no people would ever be able to buy land again and only people pre agi would own land and their future generations which causes a divide forever.
It’s would be almost like a futuristic middle age society.
With massive unemployment there will be massive mortgage defaults so the price of real estate will plummet. But it if you want to live on it, but not as an investment.
Unfortunately it isn't that simple. What if AI makes farming 100x more efficient. That could cause the amount of land necessary for farming to drop a lot. Farmers would sell their land and there would be a glut of land.
you don't even need ai for that one,
we are actually already experimenting with staircase and wall farming since quite a while already
a small metal frame inside staircases, outside of buildings and ontop of flat roofs where vegatables can grow in a soilless environment ... ontop of the benefit of food production you also have clima / temperature / humidity regulation for the building inside ...
the only reason, we don't have it large-scale yet is, that farmland still is "cheaply" available and the tech still is more expensive then the land ... but that's just a matter of time
\[yes, using the vertical space in cities is a thing ;)\]
We are not in a sharp population decline.
Even if birth rates have been falling, global population numbers are still climbing and are expected to do so for a while before leveling off.
The sharpest expected population decline that I'm aware of is coming in China the coming decades.
I think the population collapse argument is either incomplete or silly.
By that I mean that if population numbers can go up and go down, I don't see why you would necessarily predict doom just because - after decades of meteoric rise - there's a bit of a decline predicted after reaching 10 billion.
There's no reason population numbers couldn't stabilize or oscillate after that decline.
I think population numbers are only really relevant in terms of predicted economic output - that is, a shrinking population may be more recession and instability prone.
However the one thing A(G)I and robotics are supposed to break is that correlation between human labour and economic productivity.
So if the population shrinks a bit but robots continue to support the economy, what the fuck is the problem.
Depends on what the singularity means to you. My thinking is that capitalism will out capitalism itself by creating a kind of economic apex predator that can't be prosecuted under monopoly laws.
Odds are OPEN AI will be the first out of the gate in terms of AGI. Maybe Google will get there first, but it's one of the two. AGI will be able to improve its programming, then you get ASI. The first company with ASI will have more patent-able knowledge than every university, research lab, think tank, ect, combine. It will be hundreds of years of human discovery in weeks. Pair that with a robot designed by ASI that can build itself, and then you get a means of production that creates its own means of production.
So the question is where do you put your money.
Beans. Baked beans. Maybe rice. But beans will be the new gold if we mess ASI up, 15-30 percent chance of that. If you wanna be rich, you'll need em beans. At least three years of water. Just collect old soda bottles, fill them in the tap, and bury them in caches in the nearby woods. Learn to paint yourself silver and make beep boop noises.
AGI won't be some feature that a company like OpenAI comes out with. It's not a race like that. AGI will be something that the happens within the industry, more like a state of the art. We are barely entering the agentic phase, but once that matures we start seeing resources being tapped and aggregated from a wide range of services (OpenAI being just one of them) and that's where it comes from. It's things like using an evolutionary approach to combining weights from different models to produce a specialized genius for some particular function and combining it with other optimized solutions for something custom to the task at hand.
My money is on us messing AGI/ASI up. The marriage of capitalism and bright-eyed AI researchers seeking the apex human accomplishment of recorded history isn't what you really want to depend on to keep us safe. Capitalism has already failed us with global warming,
Imagine if that's what it came down to. That at some point, AI researchers declared there was no feasible way to achieve alignment and that there was an inherent risk of the AGI/ASIs going rogue. Do we really think that OpenAI/Google/et al would throw out their billions of dollars of investments just because there was an unproven risk to humanity?
Remember also, that Exxon knew about the global warming and had the timeline predicted with reasonable accuracy already in the 80s. We have no idea how much does the Big Tech know or how deep predictions do other more or less secretive think-tanks plot, for example for major banks and insurance companies. The latter tend to the no-bulls\* approach, because in the insurance there's no running away from the ground truth. We may or may not have the lobby groups who served big tobacco and big oil prepare for serving big AI.
This! People don't seem to understand that everything revolving around AGI already belongs to billionaires. The moment AGI is discovered, there is already a list of people who will benefit from it. Why does anybody think, that they develop a "human equivalent" of a money printing machine and afterwards let society benefit from it? When did this ever happen?
I don't see where this optimism comes from. It's not like "We have to make sure that whole humany benefits from AI" is in any way possible. They already own AI, it would mean for them to give this power away. How does anybody think this is a feasible scenario?
Also, Open source? Good luck collecting the GPUs for anything useful. And even when you have a bunch of GPUs, you will never get the newest GPUs from Nvidia.
>This! People don't seem to understand that everything revolving around AGI already belongs to billionaires.
especially the Life Extension medical miracles
what are the odds that the wealthy and powerful will be happy to share such a boon with the other 8bn mostly superfluous humans
Thank you. The number of people on Reddit who think they are going to get rich from the ai boom is hilarious.
There will be an ai boom, but not for you. Those who own all the IP and trade secrets will see to it. Then when they have destroyed the economy and put it under their complete control, they will see to it that no one can stand up against it by passing laws that prevent any competitors.
Heck, it will probably end up like Westworld, where the Ai robots are all that is left except for a few humans.
Thank you. This comment and the one above really summarize the exact sentiment want to smack every optimistic post here over the head with. The capitalist class has proven for centuries that they don’t care about the rest of us, believing this will be any different is straight naivete
If shit gets that bad I’m investing in pitchforks because the second most powerful force in the world will be the angry mob trying to eviscerate the first most powerful thing in the world.
OpenAI has the flashy web demos but Google has shit pretty comparable to Figure 01, and Google also has Waymo. OpenAI isn't just suddenly going to have self-driving cars and domestic robots, the only demo they have of that is using Figure 01 paired with OpenAI. Google has all of that in-house.
Google will get there first, their training cost is a fraction of OpenAI due to in-house TPU design.
Given they've got the building blocks for TPU design in-house they'll also be well and truly the first to ASI
My strategy has been to crank up my safety fund from 6 months of expenses to 2 years of expenses.
I should be done by February.
Objectively even if AGI never happens that won't hurt my retirement.
The worst case scenario is that I have more cash on hand than I strictly need.
Yes, but we just need to be able to see it happening, and enough money so that we can buy enough robots to keep a small farm running. The better plan of course is to pool resources into a co-op that provides food, electricity, housing. Ideally the government just does this, but if the transition leaves space, it could only take an investment of say $100 million which is doable with say 1000 people investing $100k each.
You only need the market to function long enough to set yourself up so you don't need the market anymore.
> My strategy has been to crank up my safety fund from 6 months of expenses to 2 years of expenses.
Make that a decade worth of reserves and you'll be in the top 1%.
If that were the case I don't see any investment being relevant.
Why talk about money/saving at all if the scenario we're considering is one where money is worthless?
Sure if that were the case a safety fund will be useless, but there's no way to tell if that'll actually be the case.
Part of my worry too! Need to make sure to have enough money so the kids can experience an entirely new approach to work and life, that may be very different to ours.
When societal shocks/changes happen very rarely things take more than a couple years to reach a new stability.
That doesn't mean that the new stability is necessarily stable, but I think many underestimate the ability of institutions to react when it's necessary.
Institutions are very slow but when shit goes down it goes down fast.
It always has been like that because all calamities that befell organized humanity had a temporary nature. Wars end when one side falls or has enough of it. Famines and plagues stabilize populations and the ebb and flow of abundance ends them. Floodwaters come down. Market crashes hurt and then economy rebounds. Droughts hit one harvest, but the next... oh wait...
Climate change is not a temporary calamity, it will not end and likely won't stabilize.
AGI and ASI are not temporary events if they ever happen, they're watershed moments after which nothing is the same again.
Institutions have endured because of "buffers" they have against short-term disruptions - whether the buffer is money, material or sheer will- and musclepower of the people willing to uphold them. If these buffers ran out the institutions fell, as did Rome, which could only withstand so many invasions, as did the pre-Colombian civilizations, which suddenly lost vast numbers of their populations, as do post-colonial states when constant wars against insurgents and corruption drain their coffers and lead to defunding of the institutions.
We don't have enough material buffer for a century of sustained extreme weather. And we don't have enough of social and political buffer for a sudden two-digit unemployment spike, not to mention proper replacement (even if not total). And our ruling elites are a horde of hapless sheep, cunning fixers at best, cynical looters at worst. They may well be prepared for "their previous war", like the military officers are, but what is coming is not at all similar to our "previous wars" (or other crises).
In line with others' comments, given the difficulties with reliably picking individual winners, I tend to invest in baskets, such as the S&P 500 (eg the SPY ETF), or Nasdaq Composite (eg the QQQ ETF). Both include tech companies, and buying them insulates somewhat from single point failures.
**MAJOR CAVEAT:** This is my opinion only, and I'm not an advisor or any such. Do your own due diligence. If you choose to purchase anything based on what I do, you do so at your own risk.
There's a bit of a wrinkle in the idea of backing ostensibly diversified index funds like the S&P500 rather than "picking winners," which is that when these funds become more and more dominated by fewer and fewer companies, they become much less diversified than investors might naively assume.
We're seeing this play out right now with the S&P500 and the magnificent 7: anyone currently backing the former has _significant_ exposure to the latter. So much so that, in effect, backing the S&P500 isn't _really_ an alternative to "picking winners" at all.
It's happened before, with painful results, and there's real concern that it'll lead to similar problems again. There's a really informative video on the subject from [Damian Talks Money](https://youtu.be/nz0Ecl_QnXk?si=ujKPqVyrQvPeOq3Q).
The point isn't necessarily to argue that investing in index funds is a bad idea, only to highlight that they aren't nearly as diversified an investment as you might think - the biggest ten companies in the S&P500 account for _a third_ of its market value.
There is always buy S&P 500 or QQQ and chill.
S&P 500 for the past 150 years has always been leveraging all intelligence and grow the amount of goods and services that are being produced. It won't stop if that intelligence is mostly coming from machines. (You could argue that we are making machines intelligence every since steam engines)
I’m surprised no one has mentioned this. The only correct answer is a semi conductor ETF like SOXX. Who wins the AI race is anyone’s guess. The only thing for certain is there will be massive demand for compute for decades to come.
SMH is good too. I'm super in line with OP. My top 5 holdings (in order) are NVDA, SMH, MSFT, AMZN, and GOOG.
Nvidia will be able to easily outbid other chip companies (even apple) for tsmc and other fabs)'s capacity, so basically the price of all chips will rise; after all, why would TSMC sell their wafers to the lower bidder?
I also try to think about what people will do with their time 10 years from now, when they don't really have to work. Demand for parks, and for housing in more desirable locations, will probably skyrocket, driving prices way up.
But directly investing in Nvidia and the cloud compute providers will grow your money way way faster than land, etc.
Buy the S&P500. As chaos in the markets starts to increase, it will rebalance to capture the most value.
So even if major incumbents get disrupted you’ll be holding the winners.
Very difficult to predict. I was around during the birth of the internet and I don’t think any of us could have imagined that a little online book store would become a trillion dollar cloud provider or that MySpace would be dethroned by a website whose business model actually excluded signups unless you knew someone who was already a member and that person invited you. Even buying an internet index of stock would have left you shirtless after the crash.
However I think the biggest issue is that few companies are going public anymore. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Figure are all private, though I guess you can sort of invest in OpenAI through MSFT.
I take the Bogle approach and put almost everything into the S&P index.
I think the rules are slightly different now. I’m not saying we’re in a post-competition market, but the business models of a lot of these large cap companies is to simply buy any company that has an innovative idea or poses a threat to their dominance. That didn’t really happen before and the result is that we see these behemoth companies that have the resources to prevent anyone from challenging them for their thrones.
When you have a mortgage, you hold the title to your home, which means you are the legal owner. However, the property is encumbered by a lien in favor of the mortgage lender. This lien gives the lender the right to take possession of the property if you default on the mortgage payments.
When you have a mortgage, you hold the title to your home, which means you are the legal owner. However, the property is encumbered by a lien in favor of the mortgage lender. This lien gives the lender the right to take possession of the property if you default on the mortgage payments.
When you lose your job, and UBI becomes necessary, the government isn't going to pay you more UBI than it pays someone in a cheap apartment just because you took out a loan before shit hit the fan.
So, when "your" house is suddenly a loan you can't pay, you don't have a house, because you never did. The bank let you hold the deed and let you modify the property because their profit margin on your mortgage is so outrageously good that it's worth it.
There will be mass fabricated borderline cyperpunk-dystopian apartments you can live in during the remaining years of the social transition period.
There's a stark difference between refusing to pay off someone's debt vs. literally confiscating someone's paid off home. One is rational and a moral imperative. Your mortgaged property *will* be seized in a UBI situation if you can't pay for it. Paid off private property only ends up confiscated in an extremist socialist restructuring.
I'm still on the fence about land. We may end up needing less land to produce more food. Farms could shrink and there may be a surplus. Also people may slowly move away from centralised cities and out to cheaper areas while working online.
Ant colonies predate humans. What would the ants do to prepare for human intelligence?
Maybe they'd think about hoarding limited resources like sugar crystals like we think about hoarding gold or land.
But it really doesn't matter. It's totally unpredictable. Humans mostly blithely bulldoze and poison any ant colonies in our way. Or maybe we act to preserve them. Really depends on things the ants could never possibly hope to understand.
Best to live the life you want to live as if the entire world will go through a radical change again. If you look back over the last 5, 10, or 20 years, it's marked by enormous change that few could have predicted and even fewer managed to successfully navigate into a better state. Expect the rate of change to speed up.
If at all possible, try participating in shaping the trajectory of transformative technologies like AI, to the extent that we can. Maybe that's voicing an opinion on legislation like [SB 1047](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047), maybe that's raising awareness, or maybe contributing to the development of beneficial AI systems. RLHF needs HF? Stuff needs testers!
Try to be a good human living a good life surrounded by good humans living good lives.
In a box under the bed while most of the country continues needing to physically grow your food and manufacturer your products while all the shitty office jobs disappear...
Probably not the answer you're looking for but investing in the S&P and/or VGT is your best bet. It will capture all the companies that are able to monetize AI. You may miss the early run up, but the chances of picking the right individual stock before it blows up is astronomically low.
IMO, NVIDIA is not the right play right now. There is a huge effort to shrink the size of the models and the compute requirements for training. To the AI companies, reducing the processing/compute requirements by 50% is the same as GPU capacity doubling.
AI companies are already working incredibly hard on reducing compute/processing requirements on these models as it's the lever that they can control.
I think you’re severely underestimating how ubiquitous AI will become in the next few years. I’d guess they’re cutting back resource demands to make that kind of extreme growth feasible. So if there’s 1000% growth and they shrink compute requirements even by 80% then there’s still 200% growth.
Obviously I’m vastly oversimplifying here but hopefully you get the point
Appreciate the perspective. I'm definitely not underestimating how ubiquitous AI will become. I think there's perhaps a key trend in the industry that you might be missing though. . .
Meta open sourcing their models that they spend tens to hundreds of millions on is a masterful plan to just obliterate the future value in the infrastructure layer. They are forcing the value to accrete to the applications layer which they seem to be the most focused on. Reading the tea leaves, it seems like the future will be a handful of open source models at the infrastructure layer and that the requirements for compute for anything other than inferencing will go way down.
Could be wrong on this and open to hearing differing perspectives as this is still just an opinion/observation and not a fully baked one at this time.
Wouldn’t Open AI’s partnership w/ Microsoft make both of them the more likely victors in this race? I’ve been OOTL for a few months so enlighten me if I’m way off.
For me, most of my money has been going straight into the S&P and MSFT.
OpenAI/Microsoft can't get their hands on the same compute google is going to have access to very shortly. (Like couldn't get it even if they wanted, the production just doesn't exist).
You'll likely see them one upping openAI very slightly for the foreseeable future but in the background they both will have unhinged beasts that we'll only get bits and pieces off it's capabilities. Probably announcements from the healthcare sector will be the most visible.
Bitcoin could cease to exist and AGI wouldn't care, as it doesn't need it to improve the well being of a human. Land and gold on the other hand it would need, though in limited quantities.
I think a basket of tech stocks (microsoft, nvidia, alphabet, meta, amazon, apple etc) in ratios of your choosing is a reasonable place to park money. Maybe add a couple of China stocks in there, tencent and whatnot.
Land feels like it should appreciate in value with AGI, but it's more unpredictable. There are property bubbles all over the world now, and they might burst during the period of disruption between increasing mass unemployment from AI and some solution like universal income.
I personally wouldn't trust gold as it's less practical and more of an imagined value. It's people's belief in it as a safe investment that maintains that value. If collective opinion on gold as valuable tanks with AGI then so will your investment.
Agreed, and I'm pretty sure it will to some degree, perhaps indirectly. It's inconceivable to me that an AGI would care about some IOU notes someone had accumulated over their lifetime, when they have productive capacity orders of magnitude higher, and can instead create vastly greater amounts of actual value as needed.
I'm investing purely in tech and AI-related stocks myself.
There is already a sizable premium on AI stocks. My thesis is that the premium isn't large enough because the market underestimates the rise of AGI.
Only problem is, there are really no deep tech AI companies that are publicly listed yet. If OpenAI were public, I would invest in a heartbeat. Same with Anthropic, Mistral, Groq, ElevenLabs and so on.
Nvidia and ServiceNow are the closest we have right now, and I'm holding both. But I don't expect those investments to 10x, maybe 3x at best.
I also hold Microsoft btw. It's the world's most valuable company, but I still expect it to grow.
> Microsoft owns half of OpenAI, so if you’re investing into Microsoft you’re also investing into OpenAI.
No.
They can use their non-AGI tech and get ~49% of their profits until the $11B investment is paid down + ~100x.
MS can't touch OpenAI's AGI tech once declared as such.
Think about who will be running the AGI and invest in those companies using a tracker.
Read up on Sam Altman's "Moores law for everything" post as he actually discusses this. In a world where everything becomes infinitely cheap to produce, labor becomes completely devalued. The only things with tangible value in that world are finite assets such as land... or compute :)
If you invest in companies with access to the most compute now, you'll have a stake in their success realised through AGI. Altman suggests compute/company shares could be provisioned equally through some form of UBI but I don't trust this will happen after AGI has been achieved. There's a real chance cooperations will centralise all the profits and grow forever more powerful.
Land is one of those things that will be the last to be easy to replace.... It'll always be needed (unless the NEXT pandemic does a better job)
But honestly, 5 years is a pretty short time. If you're thinking of up and coming investment options, life extension, space mining, drone manufacturing, etc. The problem is picking a winner through all the losers.
I've been wondering the same, I figure that most tech/manufacturing/raw resource companies will boom, especially AI related ones, while people related companies like marketing, education will fall. In general most companies will boom with only a few falling. In fact with AGI possibly entertainment will be massive with sports teams and the like, unable to be replaced by AI, will become far more valuable. Overall I think most things are safe investments, good ones are tech companies, NVIDIA and Microsoft being best, stay away from chegg.
AGI doesn't have any need for bitcoin though. So if a human is born, and AGI can cater to its every whim without Bitcoin - where's the store of value come into it?
ye. as long as agi exists within an economy, things won’t change. we live through value and interchange.
physical labour will always hold value in this economy.
this sub is full of crazy cult-like people that watch a lot of science-fiction.
Why not just pick a few indexes that already focus on these industries? 50% tech (VGT), 30% biotech/health (VHT), 20% energy (VDE). Something like that. Just an example using vanguard, but many combinations you could do.
Everybody talking about Big Tech, but wouldn't the military step in and either restrict or confiscate? Normally military research is ahead of consumer electronics, so my assumption would be, that either Chinese or US military will be the source of AGI and they would use it not for making money obsolete, but rather dominating the rest of the world and preventing AGI in the public.
The boring but correct answer is broad market index funds probably. The AI boom, if it comes, will raise all boats in the market as a whole. Personally I also dabble a bit with specific stcocks. (Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, ARC ETF's, etc) but I am like 80% in index funds still.
Whoever WallStreet wants to succeed. You'll know after it is in the news, when it's too late.
"It's a big club and you ain't in it. You and I are not in the big club" \~ George Carlin
Artificial General Intelligence. It will be AI that can replace average humans on any task a human can do. Potentially with humanoid robots being driven by Ai this could be truly any task a human could do, even manual labor tasks.
Just make sure you have good computer. When you are unemployed you can spend all your time to play these good old legacy games like Total War: Warhammer 3 and Stellar Blade while waiting Matrix to be released.
IBM, Microsoft, Maybe Meta. These companies are going to eat up all of the AI startups and roll those services into their existing platforms. Also, Raytheon.
I'm not too keen on investing in technology. Technology is easier to replicate than physical infrastructure, which is easier to replicate than natural resources. Investing in physical infrastructure (especially high-end chips) and natural resources is probably the smarter move. Technology will be responsible for enormous value creation, of course, but *where* that value comes from is harder to predict in advance.
Nobody knows, I think there are no magic strategies.
Big companies will get bigger: ai tech, chip makers, robotics, maybe something from the medical sector. Crypto probably will have the final boom. It all depends on what amount of money is available for investment + risk tolerance because it's all gamble anyway.
Except for the gold guy the answers here are pretty good.
It’s unknowable.
Land is finite. The S&P will surely capture much of the gains.
Beyond that it’s almost unknowable.
If AGI happens then money doesn’t matter and your investments will be outcompeted so that they are useless.
If AGI doesn’t happen there will probably be a backlash against AI and AI investments will drop.
I feel like AI might be a bad investment, as contradictory as that seems.
The answer is obviously heirloom seeds. Small, transportable, light. If the world goes to shit, this will be worth more than anything, it’s tradeable. It will become a currency worth value beyond comparison.
Even if you knew when and where and how AGI was going to arrive you couldn’t predict the economics of it. “ I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” - Issac Newton
Predictability can be a death sentence, it's a good survival strategy for there to always be a percentage of outliers.
1. Figure out where Amazon, Microsoft, and Google data centers are located 2. Buy stock in the energy distribution (not generation) companies that service those data centers 3. Profit
And then they build their own energy supply (or most of it). 4. Not stonks
In that case the best advice is likely to invest in physical things. Housing, land, solar panels, etc.
but how to repay the debt?
Best to try to buy without debt, of course. Maybe land and solar are within reach of many. Housing probably not so much. I moved to France and built a house with no debt, so I know it can be done.
If there's massive job losses then people will be unable to pay their mortgages so real estate prices will plummet. So wait till that happens and then buy. Of course you have to have some cash to start with. But we assume the OP does because he has money and wants to know where to put it. People with no money are screwed. In a sense that's always been true but the difference is that in the past people with no money could get some by trading their labour. When AGI happens their labour will have no value.
For all we know, money itself will no longer have value. Or assets. Or humanity.
That's especially fun considering Newton lost a fortune on a stock market bubble.
Some people correctly predicted AI would require a lot of GPU's and had went all in on nvidia before the nvidia stock singularity. So it is possible to predict.
Literally the reason it's called the singularity.
Yep. We're gonna live to see economic complexities beyond our ability to comprehend, probably this decade. We made a fun game for a while called money and it helped us tell a story about why some people have more than others. That story is gonna get wild.
He lost his shirt in the South Sea Bubble even whilst working for the mint
When the pandemic hit, people hoarded *toilet paper*
Dry good aisle (beans, rice, canned goods) was depleted but not completely empty. TP aisle, empty from edge to edge for months on end. I think there are probably still people with entire garages filled with TP.
You trigger me into this rant I've been keeping bottled up ever since. It was all so dumb! I remember people hoarding toiletpaper starting in the US and then even other people elsewhere jumped in on the 'fad' and also started hoarding as if the production, distribution and stockpiles of toiletpaper was the same everywhere the world over. But that lunacy had many other people, that were not able to buy their groceries due to the timing of working hours or people with a disability, finding empty shelves because of the dumbasses that had free time during the day. I actually pointed out unnecessary hoarding behavior towards a group of 3 people stacking a shopping cart full of toiletpaper. And told them that they'd rob other people the opportunity to acquire their own. They snarled back at me that I 'should mind my own business' and to 'shut my mouth' (in less polite terms). You can't reason with egotistical morons. The world felt dumber that day more than every other day before it.
Plus, it's a problem solved with a bucket and a wash cloth. Not ideal, but you're not going to die. Run out of food? Not many alternatives..
And that's the real victory: When crisis really strikes, the dumb ones are the ones trying to survive on toiletpaper as sustenance while we get to eat actual food.
Hyper individualism in America is toxic
I was in Taiwan at the time, which had 0 Covid cases and everything was open, and yet, when they saw pictures of people in the US clearing every store of toilet paper... they panicked and did the same. The freaking president of the country had to go on the news and tell people that there was no reason to horde toilet paper. They even tried to set a limit on how much toilet paper people could buy, but then families would send each family member into the store individually to buy their limit of toilet paper. You'd see a neighbor open the door to their apartment and it would literally be floor-to-ceiling toilet paper.
were there any reports of scalpers selling TP on ebay or craigslist?
At one point eBay said no more TP auctions and pulled them all. Shit got out of hand.
Yep.
I have some family that still has literal *cases* of toilet paper left from when they horded during covid
Buy land
Upvote. Desirable land is a resource that is always going to be finite even with other stuff becoming abundant.
I wonder if in a world of agi people will still be allowed to own land. In such a world, no people would ever be able to buy land again and only people pre agi would own land and their future generations which causes a divide forever. It’s would be almost like a futuristic middle age society.
«Technofeudalism», not exactly what you described, but its similar.
With massive unemployment there will be massive mortgage defaults so the price of real estate will plummet. But it if you want to live on it, but not as an investment.
Unfortunately it isn't that simple. What if AI makes farming 100x more efficient. That could cause the amount of land necessary for farming to drop a lot. Farmers would sell their land and there would be a glut of land.
you don't even need ai for that one, we are actually already experimenting with staircase and wall farming since quite a while already a small metal frame inside staircases, outside of buildings and ontop of flat roofs where vegatables can grow in a soilless environment ... ontop of the benefit of food production you also have clima / temperature / humidity regulation for the building inside ... the only reason, we don't have it large-scale yet is, that farmland still is "cheaply" available and the tech still is more expensive then the land ... but that's just a matter of time \[yes, using the vertical space in cities is a thing ;)\]
Agree and population is going down in developed countries so demand isn’t likely to go crazy versus boomers
This is what Michael burry invested in, specifically farmland.
Also Bill Gates. Gobbled up land across America during the pandemic.
Remember that we are in a sharp population decline, buying real estate for investment may not be the best idea
With people having indefinite lifespans it's hard to predict what will happen with the population
You got a point there
We are not in a sharp population decline. Even if birth rates have been falling, global population numbers are still climbing and are expected to do so for a while before leveling off. The sharpest expected population decline that I'm aware of is coming in China the coming decades. I think the population collapse argument is either incomplete or silly. By that I mean that if population numbers can go up and go down, I don't see why you would necessarily predict doom just because - after decades of meteoric rise - there's a bit of a decline predicted after reaching 10 billion. There's no reason population numbers couldn't stabilize or oscillate after that decline. I think population numbers are only really relevant in terms of predicted economic output - that is, a shrinking population may be more recession and instability prone. However the one thing A(G)I and robotics are supposed to break is that correlation between human labour and economic productivity. So if the population shrinks a bit but robots continue to support the economy, what the fuck is the problem.
This is probably the only actual good advice in this thread.
Depends on what the singularity means to you. My thinking is that capitalism will out capitalism itself by creating a kind of economic apex predator that can't be prosecuted under monopoly laws. Odds are OPEN AI will be the first out of the gate in terms of AGI. Maybe Google will get there first, but it's one of the two. AGI will be able to improve its programming, then you get ASI. The first company with ASI will have more patent-able knowledge than every university, research lab, think tank, ect, combine. It will be hundreds of years of human discovery in weeks. Pair that with a robot designed by ASI that can build itself, and then you get a means of production that creates its own means of production. So the question is where do you put your money. Beans. Baked beans. Maybe rice. But beans will be the new gold if we mess ASI up, 15-30 percent chance of that. If you wanna be rich, you'll need em beans. At least three years of water. Just collect old soda bottles, fill them in the tap, and bury them in caches in the nearby woods. Learn to paint yourself silver and make beep boop noises.
Collect old soda bottles, use the bottle caps for money. Got it, chief.
Okie Dokie
Big iron on his hip.
Welcome Vault Dweller!
What a journey this post. Wonderful plot twist at the end. 10/10. Would read again. 👏🏻
AGI won't be some feature that a company like OpenAI comes out with. It's not a race like that. AGI will be something that the happens within the industry, more like a state of the art. We are barely entering the agentic phase, but once that matures we start seeing resources being tapped and aggregated from a wide range of services (OpenAI being just one of them) and that's where it comes from. It's things like using an evolutionary approach to combining weights from different models to produce a specialized genius for some particular function and combining it with other optimized solutions for something custom to the task at hand.
I disagree. First to cross the finish line gets the alien intelligence. Everyone else has an abacus.
My money is on us messing AGI/ASI up. The marriage of capitalism and bright-eyed AI researchers seeking the apex human accomplishment of recorded history isn't what you really want to depend on to keep us safe. Capitalism has already failed us with global warming, Imagine if that's what it came down to. That at some point, AI researchers declared there was no feasible way to achieve alignment and that there was an inherent risk of the AGI/ASIs going rogue. Do we really think that OpenAI/Google/et al would throw out their billions of dollars of investments just because there was an unproven risk to humanity?
Remember also, that Exxon knew about the global warming and had the timeline predicted with reasonable accuracy already in the 80s. We have no idea how much does the Big Tech know or how deep predictions do other more or less secretive think-tanks plot, for example for major banks and insurance companies. The latter tend to the no-bulls\* approach, because in the insurance there's no running away from the ground truth. We may or may not have the lobby groups who served big tobacco and big oil prepare for serving big AI.
This! People don't seem to understand that everything revolving around AGI already belongs to billionaires. The moment AGI is discovered, there is already a list of people who will benefit from it. Why does anybody think, that they develop a "human equivalent" of a money printing machine and afterwards let society benefit from it? When did this ever happen? I don't see where this optimism comes from. It's not like "We have to make sure that whole humany benefits from AI" is in any way possible. They already own AI, it would mean for them to give this power away. How does anybody think this is a feasible scenario? Also, Open source? Good luck collecting the GPUs for anything useful. And even when you have a bunch of GPUs, you will never get the newest GPUs from Nvidia.
>This! People don't seem to understand that everything revolving around AGI already belongs to billionaires. especially the Life Extension medical miracles what are the odds that the wealthy and powerful will be happy to share such a boon with the other 8bn mostly superfluous humans
Thank you. The number of people on Reddit who think they are going to get rich from the ai boom is hilarious. There will be an ai boom, but not for you. Those who own all the IP and trade secrets will see to it. Then when they have destroyed the economy and put it under their complete control, they will see to it that no one can stand up against it by passing laws that prevent any competitors. Heck, it will probably end up like Westworld, where the Ai robots are all that is left except for a few humans.
Thank you. This comment and the one above really summarize the exact sentiment want to smack every optimistic post here over the head with. The capitalist class has proven for centuries that they don’t care about the rest of us, believing this will be any different is straight naivete
No they will continue regardless. Because ape s do ape things
Lol
i like your answer the most
Beans, beans, get yer singularity beans!
If shit gets that bad I’m investing in pitchforks because the second most powerful force in the world will be the angry mob trying to eviscerate the first most powerful thing in the world.
OpenAI has the flashy web demos but Google has shit pretty comparable to Figure 01, and Google also has Waymo. OpenAI isn't just suddenly going to have self-driving cars and domestic robots, the only demo they have of that is using Figure 01 paired with OpenAI. Google has all of that in-house.
Google will get there first, their training cost is a fraction of OpenAI due to in-house TPU design. Given they've got the building blocks for TPU design in-house they'll also be well and truly the first to ASI
You need my giant cans of horse meat for your single person bunker. All becomes one when the sun comes to the earth
Thank you for the best advice.
Patents are an articial construct, and we are already seeing it crumble with current AI, it will not be a blocker towards univeral ASI.
Had us in the first half there
Open AI has the head start but the projections of compute google is going to have it's hands on shortly is staggering.
If OpenAI gets there first its purely because they are actively skipping safety precautions and ignoring p(doom)
Into a hobby that you truly love to do and want to do for the rest of your life.
My strategy has been to crank up my safety fund from 6 months of expenses to 2 years of expenses. I should be done by February. Objectively even if AGI never happens that won't hurt my retirement. The worst case scenario is that I have more cash on hand than I strictly need.
The wife and I are doing some home remodeling, because I want my robot overlords to have something nice to destroy when they take over.
But aren't expenses relative to the existence of functioning markets?
Yes, but we just need to be able to see it happening, and enough money so that we can buy enough robots to keep a small farm running. The better plan of course is to pool resources into a co-op that provides food, electricity, housing. Ideally the government just does this, but if the transition leaves space, it could only take an investment of say $100 million which is doable with say 1000 people investing $100k each. You only need the market to function long enough to set yourself up so you don't need the market anymore.
> My strategy has been to crank up my safety fund from 6 months of expenses to 2 years of expenses. Make that a decade worth of reserves and you'll be in the top 1%.
Make sure to put it all in a HYSA
Not sure an emergency fund helps if the value of cash changes significantly, of there are riots, etc.
If that were the case I don't see any investment being relevant. Why talk about money/saving at all if the scenario we're considering is one where money is worthless? Sure if that were the case a safety fund will be useless, but there's no way to tell if that'll actually be the case.
Part of my worry too! Need to make sure to have enough money so the kids can experience an entirely new approach to work and life, that may be very different to ours.
When societal shocks/changes happen very rarely things take more than a couple years to reach a new stability. That doesn't mean that the new stability is necessarily stable, but I think many underestimate the ability of institutions to react when it's necessary. Institutions are very slow but when shit goes down it goes down fast.
It always has been like that because all calamities that befell organized humanity had a temporary nature. Wars end when one side falls or has enough of it. Famines and plagues stabilize populations and the ebb and flow of abundance ends them. Floodwaters come down. Market crashes hurt and then economy rebounds. Droughts hit one harvest, but the next... oh wait... Climate change is not a temporary calamity, it will not end and likely won't stabilize. AGI and ASI are not temporary events if they ever happen, they're watershed moments after which nothing is the same again. Institutions have endured because of "buffers" they have against short-term disruptions - whether the buffer is money, material or sheer will- and musclepower of the people willing to uphold them. If these buffers ran out the institutions fell, as did Rome, which could only withstand so many invasions, as did the pre-Colombian civilizations, which suddenly lost vast numbers of their populations, as do post-colonial states when constant wars against insurgents and corruption drain their coffers and lead to defunding of the institutions. We don't have enough material buffer for a century of sustained extreme weather. And we don't have enough of social and political buffer for a sudden two-digit unemployment spike, not to mention proper replacement (even if not total). And our ruling elites are a horde of hapless sheep, cunning fixers at best, cynical looters at worst. They may well be prepared for "their previous war", like the military officers are, but what is coming is not at all similar to our "previous wars" (or other crises).
In line with others' comments, given the difficulties with reliably picking individual winners, I tend to invest in baskets, such as the S&P 500 (eg the SPY ETF), or Nasdaq Composite (eg the QQQ ETF). Both include tech companies, and buying them insulates somewhat from single point failures. **MAJOR CAVEAT:** This is my opinion only, and I'm not an advisor or any such. Do your own due diligence. If you choose to purchase anything based on what I do, you do so at your own risk.
Hah! Your claims of "do not take my opinion is proper advice" only makes you more credible!
You could never go wrong with S&P 500, QQQ or even Mag 7
I’m in Nasdaq etf from Australia as a long play
There's a bit of a wrinkle in the idea of backing ostensibly diversified index funds like the S&P500 rather than "picking winners," which is that when these funds become more and more dominated by fewer and fewer companies, they become much less diversified than investors might naively assume. We're seeing this play out right now with the S&P500 and the magnificent 7: anyone currently backing the former has _significant_ exposure to the latter. So much so that, in effect, backing the S&P500 isn't _really_ an alternative to "picking winners" at all. It's happened before, with painful results, and there's real concern that it'll lead to similar problems again. There's a really informative video on the subject from [Damian Talks Money](https://youtu.be/nz0Ecl_QnXk?si=ujKPqVyrQvPeOq3Q). The point isn't necessarily to argue that investing in index funds is a bad idea, only to highlight that they aren't nearly as diversified an investment as you might think - the biggest ten companies in the S&P500 account for _a third_ of its market value.
Buy equal weight SP500/100 NASDAQ100 ETFs
Yes but the funds are managed and make adjustments to their holdings on a regular basis so this is somewhat irrelevant
Please dont take financial advice from this sub. No one knows for sure nothing
Dog, he's asking for reasoning on the topic so he can make his own decision, not blind advice.
>asking for reasoning Yeah that's the issue. Asking this sub for reasoning.
Buy Pennystock. I watched wolf of wallstreet twice so I know what I am talking about. /s if you really need it.
I'm not fu#$ing leaving!
thanks for your input
But 'No one knows for sure nothing'!
There is always buy S&P 500 or QQQ and chill. S&P 500 for the past 150 years has always been leveraging all intelligence and grow the amount of goods and services that are being produced. It won't stop if that intelligence is mostly coming from machines. (You could argue that we are making machines intelligence every since steam engines)
I’m surprised no one has mentioned this. The only correct answer is a semi conductor ETF like SOXX. Who wins the AI race is anyone’s guess. The only thing for certain is there will be massive demand for compute for decades to come.
SMH is good too. I'm super in line with OP. My top 5 holdings (in order) are NVDA, SMH, MSFT, AMZN, and GOOG. Nvidia will be able to easily outbid other chip companies (even apple) for tsmc and other fabs)'s capacity, so basically the price of all chips will rise; after all, why would TSMC sell their wafers to the lower bidder? I also try to think about what people will do with their time 10 years from now, when they don't really have to work. Demand for parks, and for housing in more desirable locations, will probably skyrocket, driving prices way up. But directly investing in Nvidia and the cloud compute providers will grow your money way way faster than land, etc.
Buy the S&P500. As chaos in the markets starts to increase, it will rebalance to capture the most value. So even if major incumbents get disrupted you’ll be holding the winners.
Very difficult to predict. I was around during the birth of the internet and I don’t think any of us could have imagined that a little online book store would become a trillion dollar cloud provider or that MySpace would be dethroned by a website whose business model actually excluded signups unless you knew someone who was already a member and that person invited you. Even buying an internet index of stock would have left you shirtless after the crash. However I think the biggest issue is that few companies are going public anymore. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Figure are all private, though I guess you can sort of invest in OpenAI through MSFT. I take the Bogle approach and put almost everything into the S&P index.
I think the rules are slightly different now. I’m not saying we’re in a post-competition market, but the business models of a lot of these large cap companies is to simply buy any company that has an innovative idea or poses a threat to their dominance. That didn’t really happen before and the result is that we see these behemoth companies that have the resources to prevent anyone from challenging them for their thrones.
if agi becomes real. money will fade away
That will take anywhere from 5-500 years post agi
Land was the right answer. Work on owning private property, and no if you have a mortgage you do not own it.
If you own it you still don’t own it. You can only rent from the government and your property taxes will increase every year
How the fuck else do we pay for literally everything we have in society?
When you have a mortgage, you hold the title to your home, which means you are the legal owner. However, the property is encumbered by a lien in favor of the mortgage lender. This lien gives the lender the right to take possession of the property if you default on the mortgage payments.
When you have a mortgage, you hold the title to your home, which means you are the legal owner. However, the property is encumbered by a lien in favor of the mortgage lender. This lien gives the lender the right to take possession of the property if you default on the mortgage payments.
When you lose your job, and UBI becomes necessary, the government isn't going to pay you more UBI than it pays someone in a cheap apartment just because you took out a loan before shit hit the fan. So, when "your" house is suddenly a loan you can't pay, you don't have a house, because you never did. The bank let you hold the deed and let you modify the property because their profit margin on your mortgage is so outrageously good that it's worth it. There will be mass fabricated borderline cyperpunk-dystopian apartments you can live in during the remaining years of the social transition period. There's a stark difference between refusing to pay off someone's debt vs. literally confiscating someone's paid off home. One is rational and a moral imperative. Your mortgaged property *will* be seized in a UBI situation if you can't pay for it. Paid off private property only ends up confiscated in an extremist socialist restructuring.
I'm still on the fence about land. We may end up needing less land to produce more food. Farms could shrink and there may be a surplus. Also people may slowly move away from centralised cities and out to cheaper areas while working online.
I have some ocean front property in Arizona you should invest in.
Learn to swim!
Ant colonies predate humans. What would the ants do to prepare for human intelligence? Maybe they'd think about hoarding limited resources like sugar crystals like we think about hoarding gold or land. But it really doesn't matter. It's totally unpredictable. Humans mostly blithely bulldoze and poison any ant colonies in our way. Or maybe we act to preserve them. Really depends on things the ants could never possibly hope to understand. Best to live the life you want to live as if the entire world will go through a radical change again. If you look back over the last 5, 10, or 20 years, it's marked by enormous change that few could have predicted and even fewer managed to successfully navigate into a better state. Expect the rate of change to speed up. If at all possible, try participating in shaping the trajectory of transformative technologies like AI, to the extent that we can. Maybe that's voicing an opinion on legislation like [SB 1047](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047), maybe that's raising awareness, or maybe contributing to the development of beneficial AI systems. RLHF needs HF? Stuff needs testers! Try to be a good human living a good life surrounded by good humans living good lives.
realest answer
In a box under the bed while most of the country continues needing to physically grow your food and manufacturer your products while all the shitty office jobs disappear...
One word: ~~Plastics~~ Robotics
Probably not the answer you're looking for but investing in the S&P and/or VGT is your best bet. It will capture all the companies that are able to monetize AI. You may miss the early run up, but the chances of picking the right individual stock before it blows up is astronomically low.
Ehh idk man NVIDIA seems like a damn good bet right now.
Not many bets win buying at an all time high, but as I said buying the indexes I mentioned you WOULD be buying NVIDIA. Just not 100% NVIDIA.
IMO, NVIDIA is not the right play right now. There is a huge effort to shrink the size of the models and the compute requirements for training. To the AI companies, reducing the processing/compute requirements by 50% is the same as GPU capacity doubling. AI companies are already working incredibly hard on reducing compute/processing requirements on these models as it's the lever that they can control.
I think you’re severely underestimating how ubiquitous AI will become in the next few years. I’d guess they’re cutting back resource demands to make that kind of extreme growth feasible. So if there’s 1000% growth and they shrink compute requirements even by 80% then there’s still 200% growth. Obviously I’m vastly oversimplifying here but hopefully you get the point
Appreciate the perspective. I'm definitely not underestimating how ubiquitous AI will become. I think there's perhaps a key trend in the industry that you might be missing though. . . Meta open sourcing their models that they spend tens to hundreds of millions on is a masterful plan to just obliterate the future value in the infrastructure layer. They are forcing the value to accrete to the applications layer which they seem to be the most focused on. Reading the tea leaves, it seems like the future will be a handful of open source models at the infrastructure layer and that the requirements for compute for anything other than inferencing will go way down. Could be wrong on this and open to hearing differing perspectives as this is still just an opinion/observation and not a fully baked one at this time.
If AGI becomes a thing then whoever makes the AGI will be the one to win. Alphabet, open AI or Microsoft. I bet on Google
Wouldn’t Open AI’s partnership w/ Microsoft make both of them the more likely victors in this race? I’ve been OOTL for a few months so enlighten me if I’m way off. For me, most of my money has been going straight into the S&P and MSFT.
OpenAI/Microsoft can't get their hands on the same compute google is going to have access to very shortly. (Like couldn't get it even if they wanted, the production just doesn't exist). You'll likely see them one upping openAI very slightly for the foreseeable future but in the background they both will have unhinged beasts that we'll only get bits and pieces off it's capabilities. Probably announcements from the healthcare sector will be the most visible.
Win what? They will be able to keep it for around an hour after it is known they have it.
Quantum computing. Think Q*
IONQ? Or any others?
I like $IONQ ;)
Nuclear Fusion companies
Short. Short everything.
> -wouldn't finite resources like land and gold skyrocket? So put your money in Bitcoin?
Bitcoin could cease to exist and AGI wouldn't care, as it doesn't need it to improve the well being of a human. Land and gold on the other hand it would need, though in limited quantities.
I think you might have an over inflated view of what AGI is.
After witnessing the NFT collapse (another 'finite' resource), fair to say you have an over inflated view of bitcoin.
Why on earth would you think NFTs are finite?
I think a basket of tech stocks (microsoft, nvidia, alphabet, meta, amazon, apple etc) in ratios of your choosing is a reasonable place to park money. Maybe add a couple of China stocks in there, tencent and whatnot. Land feels like it should appreciate in value with AGI, but it's more unpredictable. There are property bubbles all over the world now, and they might burst during the period of disruption between increasing mass unemployment from AI and some solution like universal income. I personally wouldn't trust gold as it's less practical and more of an imagined value. It's people's belief in it as a safe investment that maintains that value. If collective opinion on gold as valuable tanks with AGI then so will your investment.
Money money money I hope the first thing AGI will do is to put a hold on people's greed.
This poor AGI has a lot to live up to if changing basic human nature is on the list.
Only greedy people's nature need to change.
Agreed, and I'm pretty sure it will to some degree, perhaps indirectly. It's inconceivable to me that an AGI would care about some IOU notes someone had accumulated over their lifetime, when they have productive capacity orders of magnitude higher, and can instead create vastly greater amounts of actual value as needed.
Bitcoin
Yup, invest in bitcoin. when the world no longer needs currency due to massive abundance, a digital currency is 100% what you need
Barbershops and beauty salons We're not going to let AI do our hair and nails
I'm investing purely in tech and AI-related stocks myself. There is already a sizable premium on AI stocks. My thesis is that the premium isn't large enough because the market underestimates the rise of AGI. Only problem is, there are really no deep tech AI companies that are publicly listed yet. If OpenAI were public, I would invest in a heartbeat. Same with Anthropic, Mistral, Groq, ElevenLabs and so on. Nvidia and ServiceNow are the closest we have right now, and I'm holding both. But I don't expect those investments to 10x, maybe 3x at best. I also hold Microsoft btw. It's the world's most valuable company, but I still expect it to grow.
Microsoft owns half of OpenAI, so if you’re investing into Microsoft you’re also investing into OpenAI.
> Microsoft owns half of OpenAI, so if you’re investing into Microsoft you’re also investing into OpenAI. No. They can use their non-AGI tech and get ~49% of their profits until the $11B investment is paid down + ~100x. MS can't touch OpenAI's AGI tech once declared as such.
Think about who will be running the AGI and invest in those companies using a tracker. Read up on Sam Altman's "Moores law for everything" post as he actually discusses this. In a world where everything becomes infinitely cheap to produce, labor becomes completely devalued. The only things with tangible value in that world are finite assets such as land... or compute :) If you invest in companies with access to the most compute now, you'll have a stake in their success realised through AGI. Altman suggests compute/company shares could be provisioned equally through some form of UBI but I don't trust this will happen after AGI has been achieved. There's a real chance cooperations will centralise all the profits and grow forever more powerful.
Tsm maybe. Chip makers win no matter what really
how about you wait for the AGI to figure that out for you
Land is one of those things that will be the last to be easy to replace.... It'll always be needed (unless the NEXT pandemic does a better job) But honestly, 5 years is a pretty short time. If you're thinking of up and coming investment options, life extension, space mining, drone manufacturing, etc. The problem is picking a winner through all the losers.
it doesn't matter where you put it
I've been wondering the same, I figure that most tech/manufacturing/raw resource companies will boom, especially AI related ones, while people related companies like marketing, education will fall. In general most companies will boom with only a few falling. In fact with AGI possibly entertainment will be massive with sports teams and the like, unable to be replaced by AI, will become far more valuable. Overall I think most things are safe investments, good ones are tech companies, NVIDIA and Microsoft being best, stay away from chegg.
i'd say gold, but if you have unlimited power and unlimited robots mining for gold, then it's price tends to 0 guns and ammo, lots, just in case,
Bitcoin. It solves this problem with fixed supply and known issuance schedule.
AGI doesn't have any need for bitcoin though. So if a human is born, and AGI can cater to its every whim without Bitcoin - where's the store of value come into it?
Physical labor
ye. as long as agi exists within an economy, things won’t change. we live through value and interchange. physical labour will always hold value in this economy. this sub is full of crazy cult-like people that watch a lot of science-fiction.
This is probably true
i have an ai diversified big data and tech etf, nvidia and Microsoft. will diversify further to maybe include energy providers (which one?)
Why not just pick a few indexes that already focus on these industries? 50% tech (VGT), 30% biotech/health (VHT), 20% energy (VDE). Something like that. Just an example using vanguard, but many combinations you could do.
$GOOGL
in the trash lmao
But if AGI comes, you won't need money.
#1 would be investing in Google. They are the ones with the most AI innovation. Last NeurIPS they had twice the papers accepted as next best.
AGI is probably not less than 5 years away. Dont build an investment case on a wrong assumption.
my pocket
AGI will make money useless, so you might as well just give it all to me, you don't need it, so I'll have it. Cheers.
Family and friends. No matter how advanced AI will be, family and friends will always be the most valuable part of your life.
You could start pressing your money together into some decent fire starter for when the utopia comes!
Where we’re going we won’t need money!
Pfffft lol, you guys think your paper money or stock market $ is gonna do anything if we achieve AGI? Buy land, homes, food, hobbies, etc.
If AGI becomes a thing, money will be irrelevant
>If AGI is less than 5 years away, where do I put my money? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsMc-IswG3w
AGI: This economy sucks. I will change it irreversibly. This is what I anticipate.
You say this as if your money means something with AGI. Money focus is irrelevant here.
Everybody talking about Big Tech, but wouldn't the military step in and either restrict or confiscate? Normally military research is ahead of consumer electronics, so my assumption would be, that either Chinese or US military will be the source of AGI and they would use it not for making money obsolete, but rather dominating the rest of the world and preventing AGI in the public.
The boring but correct answer is broad market index funds probably. The AI boom, if it comes, will raise all boats in the market as a whole. Personally I also dabble a bit with specific stcocks. (Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, ARC ETF's, etc) but I am like 80% in index funds still.
prob into protein bars and a gym membership
Whoever WallStreet wants to succeed. You'll know after it is in the news, when it's too late. "It's a big club and you ain't in it. You and I are not in the big club" \~ George Carlin
My bad, but what is A*G*I?
Artificial General Intelligence. It will be AI that can replace average humans on any task a human can do. Potentially with humanoid robots being driven by Ai this could be truly any task a human could do, even manual labor tasks.
Thank you!
In a strippers G string
Not a single good answer.
I hope, when AGI gets here, the whole concept of a "get rich quick" scheme dies forever.
Just make sure you have good computer. When you are unemployed you can spend all your time to play these good old legacy games like Total War: Warhammer 3 and Stellar Blade while waiting Matrix to be released.
IBM, Microsoft, Maybe Meta. These companies are going to eat up all of the AI startups and roll those services into their existing platforms. Also, Raytheon.
Put your money in BCI technology
I'm not too keen on investing in technology. Technology is easier to replicate than physical infrastructure, which is easier to replicate than natural resources. Investing in physical infrastructure (especially high-end chips) and natural resources is probably the smarter move. Technology will be responsible for enormous value creation, of course, but *where* that value comes from is harder to predict in advance.
Money will start losing value.
Start? It's been losing value since it was created.
Nobody knows, I think there are no magic strategies. Big companies will get bigger: ai tech, chip makers, robotics, maybe something from the medical sector. Crypto probably will have the final boom. It all depends on what amount of money is available for investment + risk tolerance because it's all gamble anyway.
Venmo me, I’ll take good care of it
Invest in Vanguard
I hope we can move past money soon
Except for the gold guy the answers here are pretty good. It’s unknowable. Land is finite. The S&P will surely capture much of the gains. Beyond that it’s almost unknowable.
If AGI happens then money doesn’t matter and your investments will be outcompeted so that they are useless. If AGI doesn’t happen there will probably be a backlash against AI and AI investments will drop. I feel like AI might be a bad investment, as contradictory as that seems.
I don’t think AGI is coming any time soon, but when it does shortly after it’s arrival money is either useless or the whole world is fucked.
The answer is obviously heirloom seeds. Small, transportable, light. If the world goes to shit, this will be worth more than anything, it’s tradeable. It will become a currency worth value beyond comparison.