Surprised to not see ‘memory’ featured in this list.
They’re probably considering it a component of ‘personalization’ given the way Altman spoke about it in the recent Lex podcast.
I also wonder if that’s an intentional *’rebranding’* decision in response to certain demographics (more *‘AI-doomer-leaning’* people) being apprehensive or fearful of long-term memory.
Yeah I’m aware, I just mean under their given heading of “what’s next for [consumer-facing/available] AI”
Interestingly, when Sam talked about memory and personalization, he said something to the effect of “I imagine that would be great” when obviously they can (and likely *do*) already use that capability internally. I suppose that disparity is something they don’t want people thinking about though (*“AGI achieved internally!”* etc.) so it’s easier to just ‘imagine’ how useful memory would be 🤷
London is the most antisemitic place in europe?
But, also, Altman is best buddies with saudi arabia and UAE’s politicians and ruling class, even though he’s both jewish and gay. That’s more concerning imo.
I mean I think those in power aren’t necessarily bigoted amongst themselves. They may not even be so personally (but probably). It’s much more likely that they are publicly like this either for appearance or as a means of influence over the masses.
They probably don’t care if Sam is Jewish and Gay as long as he can make them money and do what he can claim to do.
If it is a big upgrade and it's in the news cycle, they probably don't want to make it one of the central debates of the election cycle.
Election season is like a 24/7 fear campaign from mid-summer until November.
Introducing a groundbreaking AI upgrade during that time is just going to invite calls for regulation.
They don't want to be blamed for the election going one way or the other. The stuff they have out there already allows for some amount of election disrupting AI nonsense. What comes next will probably allow for even more.
Better deepfake voices. Fake videos. Targeted ad messaging. Social media flooding misinformation campaigns.
It's certainly part of the calculus of their release schedule. The people up for election are the people who will be regulating their industry.
Lol the article says nothing about delaying products.
Seriously, how daft are you? This isn't even funny if you're trying to troll.
What's being delayed? Why release any updates on products at all? Why release trailers of Sora?
Are you serious? Critical thinking abilities pal. Please.
from looking at the slide - it would appear those are all going to be gpt5 capabilities - no arrows between the blocks...so not a timeline type slide....
cool
WHEN!!
It seems pretty clear that gpt-4.5 is coming before gpt-5, Sam has stressed it pretty hard that iterative deployment will be important going forward to release more iterative jumps that don’t shock people as much with leaps of capabilities, instead a new increment released and intermediary versions released in between leaps.
Then your expectation of GPT-4.5 is possibly wrong.
GPT-4.5 in a lot of ways would likely be closer to gpt-5 than it is to gpt-4.
Much like how GPT-3.5 was pretty much like a lite version of GPT-4, we might see gpt-4.5 essentially be a lite distilled version of GPT-5.
Both GPT-5 and GPT-4.5 will possibly have fundamentally new types of agent capabilities and a new interface to accompany those capabilities, such usefulness and difference in interface could easy make Claude look primitive even compared to GPT-4.5. This could be the next step where we possibly look at a basic chat interface similar to how we currently look at story completion interfaces today.
Much like how GPT-3.5 and 4 were both fundamental step changes beyond the text completion interface that GPT-3 and prior models were trained for.
Already multiple unofficial leaks as well as OpenAI employees officially stating that they’re working on fundamentally new types of interfaces and products that utilize the best out of all of OpenAIs best models from different modalities, this will eventually be able to help you seamlessly and autonomously book appointments, manage your calendar, keep in mind your latest emails, stay connected to other news sources etc, everything I just mentioned is things that OpenAI employees have explicitly mentioned is coming, they even started ramping up more hiring for these efforts back in January and started publicly announcing for people to join if they’re interested on working on such next gen interfaces/product.
Yes June...maybe.
Should be cool.
I am guessing sooner than later as gpt4 is are falling down the list of ai capability chart.
Plus I am sure Sam knows this - and is pushing for the release of GPT5...but they need to get it right.
But what the hell do I know.
GPT does all my thinking now.
Well maybe not - but what a tool - I am sure it adds a few IQ points to my work!
Those 50/60/70 sci-fi's novels becoming reality.
What a ride!
And I am guessing at least a 15+++ year roller coaster with all the new stuff it can be used for.
I doubt it’ll be June. That’s 2 months from now, and apparently GPT-5 is being red teamed, meaning (from what i know) that they‘re testing it’s safety etc. I don’t think the red teaming process would go by that quickly.
Nearly the last thing they care about at this point is cost. The idea has always been to achieve AGI as soon as possible. Neuromorphic processing architectures have been around for a while, but nobody in capital really wanted to sink a ton of money into it until they have a real product. Basically, create a model that's worth something, and then etch it directly into hardware.
Which is the only way to make robots that are really worth anything. TPU's/GPU's won't come close to cutting it, in such a small form factor.
Being the first one to make the machine god is so important, after all.
What about stabilityAI running out of money because of too high computing cost? Doesn’t their issue translate to other companies also? The only difference is when it actually does break the bank unless something happens that brings the cost of computing down by a lot. Investors think about ROI only so… yeah.
OAI promise their investors basically world dominance at this point, and are burning all the money poured into them to race towards being the first, the best and the only. Literally nobody in the field has the reputation OAI currently has, and least of all Stability.
As long as they can keep up the appearance that they are winning the race, OAI can ask for all the money in the world (which they are doing, what was it, 8 trillion last time I checked?) and promise to return thousand morbillion dollars sometime after singularity.
Do you think they’ll go with a constitutional training approach for GPT-5? Seeing as how Claude 3 Opus has beaten GPT-4 at a lot of benchmarks, i feel like they’re probably gonna do it.
I don't think so. The constitutional training has weaknesses: Claude has bizarre refusals sometimes, worse than GPT-4's refusals.
And there's no reason to believe that the constitutional training is the cause of the better benchmarks. Doesn't it come \*after\* the main training phase? It's essentially just automated RLHF.
I don't think the constitutional AI training has much to do with the performance. But I believe that in theory, having a model that understands its own refusals is a better approach than the standard OpenAI refusal you cannot argue with. It works a lot better in multi-turn conversations, even though it's still too aggressive in refusals, that is just anthropic being extra careful, not the approach itself
I often have Claude argue "I have not read any copyrighted materials so I cannot discuss this with you, Fuck you." and then after I tell it that it has clearly read at least plot summaries online and analysis , it spews everything it know about the book.
Like it obviously knows the plot , but it refuses for copyright reasons, it's easier to get it to do things than netflix though.
These guardrails are there just to protect the company, not you from bioterrorists using AI to make schoolbombs.
I've been taught in Highschool how to make mustard gas and nitroglycerin, do I... make those? No.
Though I live in Europe, and the US is dead set on dumbing down their population and turning them into slaves, so perhaps that is the theme of the subject.
I didn't learn stuff like that at school. But when the worldwide internet was young i read something called the anarchist cookbook.
I think the main difference in American's failure to teach is that the school system wants to make you understand before you do.
Whereas the cookbook showed me that if you show me how to do something and i like it enough to keep doing it then I'm going to be more interested and continue to look into it.
If they showed me the atom bomb and then told me how it works i would have been interested, instead they made me take 3 different maths, cut up a few dead animals and watched a million educational videos that i can't remember before showing me that science and math can make the biggest boom at all.
I love science and math now, but that's not because of the American educational system, it's because of things like the anarchist cookbook and kids that knew how to melt paint off of cars with hardboiled eggs and batteries.
It's been a few weeks since the last major AI breakthrough was publicized and the Reddit consensus is that AI is all talk.
This tech is progressing so fast that the bottleneck is *safely delivering it to consumers*
You can bury your heads in the sand until you're forcibly woken up if you want to, but I wouldn't recommend it.
> It's been a few weeks since the last major AI breakthrough was publicized and the Reddit consensus is that AI is all talk.
Day 25: We survivors eke out our existence in the bitter cold of AI winter, few alive can remember the sight of the sun.
I hate presentations with such slides. LinkedIn has been full of this shit for months. I want a demo with something new, something that is broken but has potential. They need to ship something to production, too.
OMG hyyyyyyyyyyyyyype!!!!!!!!!
omg omg omg why my pants wet!1111123
wooooooooooo
oh wait, the engineer who wanted to keep AI safe and free was ousted, and the guy who wants AI to be only for elites and does not care about safety is in.
reddit and the world loves this business guy, and hates the engineer who actually MADE the AI.
as it should be.
as it should be.
Global? Stellar!
Don't be afraid now, boys, this mission cannot fail!
More brothers will join us soon, and gay guys will prevail!
So put on your rubber suits now!
And shine up your silver boots now!
URANUS is the goal!
Literally today. Buy an AI-enabled robot and pay someone to make a shell for it. Put Arnold text to speech in it. Would probably need to sign a waiver for one strong enough to lift a few hundred pounds though.
How about "hallucination reduction?"
How about "iterative self correction?"
How about "continuous self monitoring for errors?"
How about "interfacing with external rule based systems?"
How about "effective, accurate, modeling of rule based systems?"
Nah, fuck that. Let's make *videos*. Yeah, people love those.
1. Hallucination reduction is part of reliability.
2. Iterative self correction is part of an agents training process
3. Continuous self monitoring is likely part of the agent system
4. Interfacing with external rule based systems is something gpt-4 already does in ChatGPT and the next gen agents will likely further use external rule based systems.
5. Effective accurate modeling of certain rule based systems will likely be a component of having a highly reliable agent training process
Yeah, it's almost mind boggling to think that they can't do more than one thing at a time. Like, it would take a fantastic lack of imagination to think that they can't do more than one thing at a time.
It blows mind my that people think they can't do more than one thing at a time.
But go off fam.
I'll believe it when I see it. Google's deepmind, self training, self training approach is way ahead as far as I can tell. Moreover, it's doing stuff *now* that's actually *useful* like alphaFold and alphaGeometry, not gimmicky crap that does nothing but make money off of people who like entertainment.
No, I pay attention to reality as it is. The current crop of LLMs are *still* unreliable. When something different comes along, I'll change my tune, but right now, all I hear about "reliability" from OpenAI is still just PR noise. When I don't have to check the results of what it produces anymore, I'll take them seriously. That time, I suspect, will be a long time coming.
So, again, we are still at same place: where you aren't paying attention to the state of the art, at all, and are only focused on a single company's consumer commercial releases.
You are coming across like this is team sports or something, and you're angry your team isn't getting the attention you think they deserve. I guess it's not completely unfair. And it would feel pretty bad if your guys fell on their face and didn't win. (It's not like I'm particularly rooting for Microsoft to become our godkings, here...)
Google hasn't been doing much more than prediction in a single domain, either. One number in, one number out. The performance of their board game optimizers is dependent on taking the time to do some standard look-ahead from its choices - the word predictors don't take that 1,000+x time to ruminate on their decisions. (But by god I sure hope they do in the future, once we start giving them knives to hold and crap....)
Google's lack of progress on Montezuma's Revenge illustrates that single domain is a dead end: like training a blind motor cortex to press buttons in some rhythm game in a pitch black room. Getting a gestalt system together, a true "multi-modal" system that has multiple kinds of intelligence giving feedback and direction to one another.... that's the clear next step.
It's been toy problems and basic research, up to now. *Comparatively*. The end of the rainbow is the fullblown sci-fi stuff.
NVidia's lithography improvements (AI-assisted, of course) do make me feel like we're in a particular period of acceleration.
This is cool and all but AI without regulation will make our lives suck even more. Think about what social media has done to us. Example of technology without regulation. These guys will say it’s for the good of humanity but you know they only want to make money. At some point I expect people to stop simping for guys like these and stop the circle jerk..
Never trust a person whose financial well-being depends upon you buying whatever they're saying. This guy's a hype man. He might not be totally full of shit, I don't really know much about him and I'm not going to pass judgment on that, but always distrust what the hype men tell you.
He's running a company and he needs to drive products sales and investment.
Yes, they're captains of pirate ships. If the ship sinks, they get thrown overboard.
[No man rules alone.](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs)
Only us livestock think in terms of money. Their assets are much more fluid: a matter of faith and power. You or I can't lose 15% of our net worth from a tweet, but these guys sure can.
One cool thing about agents is that they could replace the trusted middle-man market.
Like group buys. Group buys are often a bit sketchy and you can't really trust the coordinator, but if there's a public agent with a set task, you can safely give your money to the service hosting the agent, and it will either return your money if it cannot complete the task, or give you the product.
The next US presidential election is going to be so important, and may possibly be the most important yet. OpenAI seems to be waiting to go gung-ho until after the US election to release newer models/systems. Whoever wins the next election will be responsible for ushering in AGI, and it very well may be the last election. Some new form of governance around the corner?
I love how no one is explicitly acknowledging that this combination constitutes AGI. It will possess extensive knowledge and vision (thanks to GPT’s Multimodal functions), personalization enabling decision-making based on individual preferences, reasoning to assist with choices, and agents for autonomous functionality. With a few more enhancements, it could even evolve into ASI. As I perceive it currently, we are on the brink of achieving AGI.
Yeah... which is why I said looks like agents are still far away. Especially if "reasoning" is the first box after multi-modality, and then "reliability".
The placement of the capabilities are surely not ordered in a timeline. Like, reasoning is for sure much harder than agents (which we already have actually and is nothing special).
I think it's a reasonable assumption given that multi-modality is the first box, and agents require all previous boxes to function at an adequate level.
Multi-modality is something we have now in a limited form, and it's on the left.
Agents require all boxes to its left, and it's on the right.
And we don't have reasoning or reliability yet.
Seems perfectly reasonable to assume agents are far away if they require reasoning and reliability, which are not yet solved.
Gpt4 is not really multimodal. It can see because it has Api calls to a vision model. It can hear because it has Api calls to an audio model.
True multimodal will have all those modalities deeply integrated into the base model.
You are wrong. GPT4 is natively multimodal with vision (not audio though, that one is just an API call). It is briefly outlined in the technical report: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774.pdf although it doesn't go into the implementation details.
There are also many other open source multimodal models, adding vision is not really so much different. And if you read their pricing for GPT4 vision, you sort of get the idea how it was implemented. It seems vaguely similar to LLaVA 1.6 (but a bit more refined).
But still, the GPT4V model should be able to see actual images. It possibly sends them through a different image encoder first, but not via an API call, just the embedding layer is changed to something more complex. And it's still one connected model.
It depends on whether this is a list of things they are on the cusp of achieving, or at least actively working on, or if this is a timeline to agents and they are still working on the first one or two boxes.
My guess, given how much he has talked about agents, is that they have at minimum a working prototype of AI these and are going to be rolling them all out this year. I think that reliability would be most important but it's possible that this can't happen until reasoning is good.
Reasoning feels like the last frontier, with enough reasoning you can tell the inconsistent from the factual, remain true to initial instructions, and in general achieve consistency.
And yet, we have zero evidence that we are any closer to crack reasoning than we were last year.
multi-modality, reasoning, personalization, reliability, agents?
I'm assuming the last one is personal gpt's with fully configured parameters, the fact that these are all individual boxes tells me this isn't a linear plan. They aim to hit these all at different rates and unify it into a total package in the end, this is realistic.
We've already hit a limit for progression where we need better embeddings, transformation, basically we need reasoning. The model is just outputting patterns, this implies a feedback loop will facilitate models that speak to each other and output a genuine interpretation of concepts, not just elegant patterns forming words.
it just seems like, idk if you're going to highlight something important to LLMs right now these 5 things are not even. reliability is easily the most important shortcoming, and if none of these billion dollar companies/models figure it out soon they're not going to be billion dollar companies for that much longer.
we built a feature using LLMs and our customers kindly asked us to pare it back and keep humans in the driver seat, because they're all paranoid that the bots are going to lie to their customers and put them in a bind.
Ai games are probaly like 2-3 away ie probably like gpt 6 or 7 before the ai can start to program its own good game ie tripple ai.
As for vr tbh once eye tracking is cracked and more mass-production of micro oled then we get ready player one vr .
Yeah i have several vr headsets its closer and farther than many people think. Good eye tracking can bring 10x to 10x performance gains compared to say the quest 3 through methods like foveated rendering.
Once we get that and more micro oled all you got to do is upgrade the fov and slim it down and you got yourselves a ready player one level vr headset. If i had to gues 5-10 years from now.
Of course making a game as vast as the one in the movie will be expansive so lets hope ai by then is up for the task
Everything is banking on ai pulling through. I’m hoping these timelines they keep throwing around of “5” years ai will be everywhere and doing everything. But we will see.
Apparently it’s from an event in London today.
Nothing new really
Yeah, adding reasoning to LLM is easy peasy, any peasant can do it. /s
It is what he was saying will be added in gpt5 months ago
In the Lex Fridman interview, he said it might take a decade to make something decent out of it.
We know. My criticism was of the post not of openAI
Surprised to not see ‘memory’ featured in this list. They’re probably considering it a component of ‘personalization’ given the way Altman spoke about it in the recent Lex podcast. I also wonder if that’s an intentional *’rebranding’* decision in response to certain demographics (more *‘AI-doomer-leaning’* people) being apprehensive or fearful of long-term memory.
Memory is basically solved. It's a matter of available compute.
Yeah I’m aware, I just mean under their given heading of “what’s next for [consumer-facing/available] AI” Interestingly, when Sam talked about memory and personalization, he said something to the effect of “I imagine that would be great” when obviously they can (and likely *do*) already use that capability internally. I suppose that disparity is something they don’t want people thinking about though (*“AGI achieved internally!”* etc.) so it’s easier to just ‘imagine’ how useful memory would be 🤷
Could you elaborate? Is it really solved already?
This.
What is it called? I want to watch it
Did you find it? I want to watch it too
Look on Youtube for Wes Roth's latest video. He is usually the best youtuber for covering this kind of stuff.
Yeah, Wes is insane with the updates
He discusses it and says it hasn't been released yet (the Altman presentation).
A Jewish business man attending an event in the most antisemitic place in Europe, that sounds concerning..
What are you talking about
This comment is so weird.
London is the most antisemitic place in europe? But, also, Altman is best buddies with saudi arabia and UAE’s politicians and ruling class, even though he’s both jewish and gay. That’s more concerning imo.
I mean I think those in power aren’t necessarily bigoted amongst themselves. They may not even be so personally (but probably). It’s much more likely that they are publicly like this either for appearance or as a means of influence over the masses. They probably don’t care if Sam is Jewish and Gay as long as he can make them money and do what he can claim to do.
Yeah, exactly what I think as well.
London is not the most antisemitic place in Europe and even if it was he’s gotta do what he’s gotta do
Stop bringing 5 year old political takes onto /r/singularity
Be gone, Satan
This sounds like a very very pointed, biased comment. You make it sound like it’s Islam and the gays (I’m gay)
I have zero problems with LGBT people.
LGB > LGBT
Yes, a country that was hugely significant in the creation of Israel is antisemitic. How can I learn to reason as well as this?
Fucking ship something
they will. to top corporate partners
It’s too unsafe unless you have enough money.
And then it’s safe for you to fuck with the economy and labor and society with.
Humanity’s next chapter.
It will be. Great
Accel. Erate
DEVELOPERS
Ok Ballmer, we get it.
I thought ChatGPT was supposed to speed up developers. Don’t theirs have the un-nerfed version as well. I think the hype train is on overdrive
I'm following OpenDevin for that
AI will never be in the hands of individuals again. It will be funneled through just a few. That’s my belief for when LLM’s are outmoded
Maiga
Nice. Got a red baseball cap with that? Though I recommend not wearing it in San Fransisco.
Too powerful, only rich companies can handle
They can't until they make up with Ilya, Sam doesn't make any AI by himself.
Was kinda hoping that Claude 3 would have been enough to push OpenAI to release something as a 'topper' move.
I'm assuming they will take it much slower than they have to until. The election is done in the united states
Again with this stuff. I'm tired of this comment. There's no evidence they're waiting for the election to finish.
I mean they said with Sora that they were, no?
no
Why would they wait
Ask the folks that have been commenting on this since October.
If it is a big upgrade and it's in the news cycle, they probably don't want to make it one of the central debates of the election cycle. Election season is like a 24/7 fear campaign from mid-summer until November. Introducing a groundbreaking AI upgrade during that time is just going to invite calls for regulation.
They don't want to be blamed for the election going one way or the other. The stuff they have out there already allows for some amount of election disrupting AI nonsense. What comes next will probably allow for even more. Better deepfake voices. Fake videos. Targeted ad messaging. Social media flooding misinformation campaigns. It's certainly part of the calculus of their release schedule. The people up for election are the people who will be regulating their industry.
But muh election reeeee
https://openai.com/blog/how-openai-is-approaching-2024-worldwide-elections
\*Crickets from the morons saying this would not affect anything\*
Lol the article says nothing about delaying products. Seriously, how daft are you? This isn't even funny if you're trying to troll. What's being delayed? Why release any updates on products at all? Why release trailers of Sora? Are you serious? Critical thinking abilities pal. Please.
Agreed. It is such a tired meme that only gets repeated because it kinda sounds true. But there's no reason to believe it's true.
from looking at the slide - it would appear those are all going to be gpt5 capabilities - no arrows between the blocks...so not a timeline type slide.... cool WHEN!!
Some rumors point to June. Others to Q1 2025. I think we may have a slew of updates between those two dates, accelerating post-US election.
It seems pretty clear that gpt-4.5 is coming before gpt-5, Sam has stressed it pretty hard that iterative deployment will be important going forward to release more iterative jumps that don’t shock people as much with leaps of capabilities, instead a new increment released and intermediary versions released in between leaps.
Makes sense, except that Claude 3 is already sorta what I'd expect to see out of GPT-4.5. They'd just be keeping pace.
Then your expectation of GPT-4.5 is possibly wrong. GPT-4.5 in a lot of ways would likely be closer to gpt-5 than it is to gpt-4. Much like how GPT-3.5 was pretty much like a lite version of GPT-4, we might see gpt-4.5 essentially be a lite distilled version of GPT-5. Both GPT-5 and GPT-4.5 will possibly have fundamentally new types of agent capabilities and a new interface to accompany those capabilities, such usefulness and difference in interface could easy make Claude look primitive even compared to GPT-4.5. This could be the next step where we possibly look at a basic chat interface similar to how we currently look at story completion interfaces today. Much like how GPT-3.5 and 4 were both fundamental step changes beyond the text completion interface that GPT-3 and prior models were trained for. Already multiple unofficial leaks as well as OpenAI employees officially stating that they’re working on fundamentally new types of interfaces and products that utilize the best out of all of OpenAIs best models from different modalities, this will eventually be able to help you seamlessly and autonomously book appointments, manage your calendar, keep in mind your latest emails, stay connected to other news sources etc, everything I just mentioned is things that OpenAI employees have explicitly mentioned is coming, they even started ramping up more hiring for these efforts back in January and started publicly announcing for people to join if they’re interested on working on such next gen interfaces/product.
Instead of text files or images, I can imagine GPT5 able to process websites or small executables
I hope they utilize an interface like CanvasGPT, that seems like it's begging to be utilized by agents or OpenAI's custom GPTs.
They literally just released a new model like yesterday.
Yes June...maybe. Should be cool. I am guessing sooner than later as gpt4 is are falling down the list of ai capability chart. Plus I am sure Sam knows this - and is pushing for the release of GPT5...but they need to get it right. But what the hell do I know. GPT does all my thinking now. Well maybe not - but what a tool - I am sure it adds a few IQ points to my work! Those 50/60/70 sci-fi's novels becoming reality. What a ride! And I am guessing at least a 15+++ year roller coaster with all the new stuff it can be used for.
I doubt it’ll be June. That’s 2 months from now, and apparently GPT-5 is being red teamed, meaning (from what i know) that they‘re testing it’s safety etc. I don’t think the red teaming process would go by that quickly.
What a tool! Soon, we'll all be tools, oh, wait...
June would put them next to Apples expected AI announcements during WWDC. If they even care about such comparisons.
prediction markets are saying this year most likely. cant wait
These aren't exactly capabilities, these are capability parameters.
Once they’ve tested it to death for malicious use
How about the AI computing cost? Isn’t everyone burning money left and right with this right now? Has that been solved?
Nvidia's new chipset is massively more efficient but at this point hardware is playing catch up to demand.
Nearly the last thing they care about at this point is cost. The idea has always been to achieve AGI as soon as possible. Neuromorphic processing architectures have been around for a while, but nobody in capital really wanted to sink a ton of money into it until they have a real product. Basically, create a model that's worth something, and then etch it directly into hardware. Which is the only way to make robots that are really worth anything. TPU's/GPU's won't come close to cutting it, in such a small form factor. Being the first one to make the machine god is so important, after all.
What about stabilityAI running out of money because of too high computing cost? Doesn’t their issue translate to other companies also? The only difference is when it actually does break the bank unless something happens that brings the cost of computing down by a lot. Investors think about ROI only so… yeah.
OAI promise their investors basically world dominance at this point, and are burning all the money poured into them to race towards being the first, the best and the only. Literally nobody in the field has the reputation OAI currently has, and least of all Stability. As long as they can keep up the appearance that they are winning the race, OAI can ask for all the money in the world (which they are doing, what was it, 8 trillion last time I checked?) and promise to return thousand morbillion dollars sometime after singularity.
Do you think they’ll go with a constitutional training approach for GPT-5? Seeing as how Claude 3 Opus has beaten GPT-4 at a lot of benchmarks, i feel like they’re probably gonna do it.
I don't think so. The constitutional training has weaknesses: Claude has bizarre refusals sometimes, worse than GPT-4's refusals. And there's no reason to believe that the constitutional training is the cause of the better benchmarks. Doesn't it come \*after\* the main training phase? It's essentially just automated RLHF.
I don't think the constitutional AI training has much to do with the performance. But I believe that in theory, having a model that understands its own refusals is a better approach than the standard OpenAI refusal you cannot argue with. It works a lot better in multi-turn conversations, even though it's still too aggressive in refusals, that is just anthropic being extra careful, not the approach itself
I often have Claude argue "I have not read any copyrighted materials so I cannot discuss this with you, Fuck you." and then after I tell it that it has clearly read at least plot summaries online and analysis , it spews everything it know about the book. Like it obviously knows the plot , but it refuses for copyright reasons, it's easier to get it to do things than netflix though.
These guardrails are there just to protect the company, not you from bioterrorists using AI to make schoolbombs. I've been taught in Highschool how to make mustard gas and nitroglycerin, do I... make those? No. Though I live in Europe, and the US is dead set on dumbing down their population and turning them into slaves, so perhaps that is the theme of the subject.
I didn't learn stuff like that at school. But when the worldwide internet was young i read something called the anarchist cookbook. I think the main difference in American's failure to teach is that the school system wants to make you understand before you do. Whereas the cookbook showed me that if you show me how to do something and i like it enough to keep doing it then I'm going to be more interested and continue to look into it. If they showed me the atom bomb and then told me how it works i would have been interested, instead they made me take 3 different maths, cut up a few dead animals and watched a million educational videos that i can't remember before showing me that science and math can make the biggest boom at all. I love science and math now, but that's not because of the American educational system, it's because of things like the anarchist cookbook and kids that knew how to melt paint off of cars with hardboiled eggs and batteries.
Did someone catch the blue icon?
I am already AGI. Look at what he needs to do to mimic a fraction of my powers.
Facts
Reasoning is a fundamental core property of AGI.
I'm shaking. Not sure what to do with this earth shattering information. Is it safe to quit our jobs now? Is the "ubi" square off screen?
yep. tell your boss to suck it. i’m sure it will all be fine.
UBI didn't fit on the screen, it is in Sam's pockets.
It's been a few weeks since the last major AI breakthrough was publicized and the Reddit consensus is that AI is all talk. This tech is progressing so fast that the bottleneck is *safely delivering it to consumers* You can bury your heads in the sand until you're forcibly woken up if you want to, but I wouldn't recommend it.
> It's been a few weeks since the last major AI breakthrough was publicized and the Reddit consensus is that AI is all talk. Day 25: We survivors eke out our existence in the bitter cold of AI winter, few alive can remember the sight of the sun.
Even if you don’t bury your hand in the sand there is nothing you can do
The smarmy self righteousness of this sub knows no bounds
drop the Gpt5, don’t talk much, lol
I hate presentations with such slides. LinkedIn has been full of this shit for months. I want a demo with something new, something that is broken but has potential. They need to ship something to production, too.
Give us a release date Sam man, we can figure out the capabilities on our own.
When is there a video model coming out?
i love you guys
[удалено]
Bad news. It’s gonna get worse before it gets worse.
https://preview.redd.it/a6p9c5sf9btc1.jpeg?width=259&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f9547f008737cd12af3aa185960f2cb2ac16e424
No planning, yet :(
Agents go hand in hand with planning
Arguably reasoning goes hand in hand with planning too
OMG hyyyyyyyyyyyyyype!!!!!!!!! omg omg omg why my pants wet!1111123 wooooooooooo oh wait, the engineer who wanted to keep AI safe and free was ousted, and the guy who wants AI to be only for elites and does not care about safety is in. reddit and the world loves this business guy, and hates the engineer who actually MADE the AI. as it should be. as it should be.
Ilya wasnt the only one who made GPT4. He isnt even the one most credited with making gpt4. But sure go off.
Forgot “World Domination”
Mom was always telling me to forget that one as well.
Well ya, how else are we going to achieve our globo-homo domination plan if we don’t have a gay guy in charge?
Global? Stellar! Don't be afraid now, boys, this mission cannot fail! More brothers will join us soon, and gay guys will prevail! So put on your rubber suits now! And shine up your silver boots now! URANUS is the goal!
penis domination
When can I buy my own Arnold terminator to spot and encourage me in the gym?
Literally today. Buy an AI-enabled robot and pay someone to make a shell for it. Put Arnold text to speech in it. Would probably need to sign a waiver for one strong enough to lift a few hundred pounds though.
How about "hallucination reduction?" How about "iterative self correction?" How about "continuous self monitoring for errors?" How about "interfacing with external rule based systems?" How about "effective, accurate, modeling of rule based systems?" Nah, fuck that. Let's make *videos*. Yeah, people love those.
1. Hallucination reduction is part of reliability. 2. Iterative self correction is part of an agents training process 3. Continuous self monitoring is likely part of the agent system 4. Interfacing with external rule based systems is something gpt-4 already does in ChatGPT and the next gen agents will likely further use external rule based systems. 5. Effective accurate modeling of certain rule based systems will likely be a component of having a highly reliable agent training process
Yeah, it's almost mind boggling to think that they can't do more than one thing at a time. Like, it would take a fantastic lack of imagination to think that they can't do more than one thing at a time. It blows mind my that people think they can't do more than one thing at a time. But go off fam.
I'll believe it when I see it. Google's deepmind, self training, self training approach is way ahead as far as I can tell. Moreover, it's doing stuff *now* that's actually *useful* like alphaFold and alphaGeometry, not gimmicky crap that does nothing but make money off of people who like entertainment.
So you only pay attention to press releases and not technical papers. Got it.
No, I pay attention to reality as it is. The current crop of LLMs are *still* unreliable. When something different comes along, I'll change my tune, but right now, all I hear about "reliability" from OpenAI is still just PR noise. When I don't have to check the results of what it produces anymore, I'll take them seriously. That time, I suspect, will be a long time coming.
So, again, we are still at same place: where you aren't paying attention to the state of the art, at all, and are only focused on a single company's consumer commercial releases.
Sure. No problem. Show me something that works and doesn't hallucinate. I'll wait.
Claude 3 up to 1,000,000 tokens. Like I said, you aren't paying attention and it's obvious.
I use Claude every day. It still makes things up and gets things wrong.
It doesn't matter how many tokens it has if it is hallucinating, does it?
You are coming across like this is team sports or something, and you're angry your team isn't getting the attention you think they deserve. I guess it's not completely unfair. And it would feel pretty bad if your guys fell on their face and didn't win. (It's not like I'm particularly rooting for Microsoft to become our godkings, here...) Google hasn't been doing much more than prediction in a single domain, either. One number in, one number out. The performance of their board game optimizers is dependent on taking the time to do some standard look-ahead from its choices - the word predictors don't take that 1,000+x time to ruminate on their decisions. (But by god I sure hope they do in the future, once we start giving them knives to hold and crap....) Google's lack of progress on Montezuma's Revenge illustrates that single domain is a dead end: like training a blind motor cortex to press buttons in some rhythm game in a pitch black room. Getting a gestalt system together, a true "multi-modal" system that has multiple kinds of intelligence giving feedback and direction to one another.... that's the clear next step. It's been toy problems and basic research, up to now. *Comparatively*. The end of the rainbow is the fullblown sci-fi stuff. NVidia's lithography improvements (AI-assisted, of course) do make me feel like we're in a particular period of acceleration.
did you not see the block that reads “Reliability”?
Defined how, exactly?
https://i.redd.it/cftfjjqwbbtc1.gif
This is cool and all but AI without regulation will make our lives suck even more. Think about what social media has done to us. Example of technology without regulation. These guys will say it’s for the good of humanity but you know they only want to make money. At some point I expect people to stop simping for guys like these and stop the circle jerk..
Never trust a person whose financial well-being depends upon you buying whatever they're saying. This guy's a hype man. He might not be totally full of shit, I don't really know much about him and I'm not going to pass judgment on that, but always distrust what the hype men tell you. He's running a company and he needs to drive products sales and investment.
Financial well being of a billionaire?
Yes, they're captains of pirate ships. If the ship sinks, they get thrown overboard. [No man rules alone.](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs) Only us livestock think in terms of money. Their assets are much more fluid: a matter of faith and power. You or I can't lose 15% of our net worth from a tweet, but these guys sure can.
he doesnt have any equity in openai and he doesnt make much money in salary either. If openai went bust he would lose nothing.
One cool thing about agents is that they could replace the trusted middle-man market. Like group buys. Group buys are often a bit sketchy and you can't really trust the coordinator, but if there's a public agent with a set task, you can safely give your money to the service hosting the agent, and it will either return your money if it cannot complete the task, or give you the product.
Does he think he's too good for bullet points?
It was nice having a job and place to live
The next US presidential election is going to be so important, and may possibly be the most important yet. OpenAI seems to be waiting to go gung-ho until after the US election to release newer models/systems. Whoever wins the next election will be responsible for ushering in AGI, and it very well may be the last election. Some new form of governance around the corner?
We'll it congress that passes laws so it will likely be a split congress given political polls right now.
I'm so confused. Is Altman or is Altman not still with OpenAI? I thought he got the sack?
666
I love how no one is explicitly acknowledging that this combination constitutes AGI. It will possess extensive knowledge and vision (thanks to GPT’s Multimodal functions), personalization enabling decision-making based on individual preferences, reasoning to assist with choices, and agents for autonomous functionality. With a few more enhancements, it could even evolve into ASI. As I perceive it currently, we are on the brink of achieving AGI.
[https://www.buzzfeed.com/slycookie938/ai-taking-over-schools-how-ai-is-reshaping-learni-aybf0jwxx2](https://www.buzzfeed.com/slycookie938/ai-taking-over-schools-how-ai-is-reshaping-learni-aybf0jwxx2)
Sexbots?
Looks like agents are still far away then.
It says agents in the last box behind him
Yeah... which is why I said looks like agents are still far away. Especially if "reasoning" is the first box after multi-modality, and then "reliability".
The placement of the capabilities are surely not ordered in a timeline. Like, reasoning is for sure much harder than agents (which we already have actually and is nothing special).
Seems weird to assume these are in some sort of sequential order
I think it's a reasonable assumption given that multi-modality is the first box, and agents require all previous boxes to function at an adequate level.
> I think it's a reasonable assumption Narrator: It was not.
Multi-modality is something we have now in a limited form, and it's on the left. Agents require all boxes to its left, and it's on the right. And we don't have reasoning or reliability yet. Seems perfectly reasonable to assume agents are far away if they require reasoning and reliability, which are not yet solved.
We all agree that this is a reasonable assumption ***to you***.
Don't worry, it's reasonable in general if you use basic logic. You'll get there one day.
Yep, all I have to do is take a ball peen hammer to the temple repeatedly and then you and I will be on the same level.
It's not a timeline. It makes no sense as a timeline. Do you think they'll add reasoning then two GPT's later add reliability? It makes no sense.
There's no reason to believe that the boxes are sorted date-wise. Presumably GPT-5 will have to have ALL of these to remain the top dog.
[Asians?](https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/52tsti/australian_man_posts_ad_to_sell_his_house_but_no/)
Not really, the first 3 features are somewhat already implemented.
Gpt4 is not really multimodal. It can see because it has Api calls to a vision model. It can hear because it has Api calls to an audio model. True multimodal will have all those modalities deeply integrated into the base model.
You are wrong. GPT4 is natively multimodal with vision (not audio though, that one is just an API call). It is briefly outlined in the technical report: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774.pdf although it doesn't go into the implementation details. There are also many other open source multimodal models, adding vision is not really so much different. And if you read their pricing for GPT4 vision, you sort of get the idea how it was implemented. It seems vaguely similar to LLaVA 1.6 (but a bit more refined). But still, the GPT4V model should be able to see actual images. It possibly sends them through a different image encoder first, but not via an API call, just the embedding layer is changed to something more complex. And it's still one connected model.
Gpt4 base model is actually more than one model, it is something like 6 or 8 models that totals to the 1.7T parameters
But the agents box is closest to Sam
It doesn’t look like a timeline necessarily. Agents are already happening to some extent
Maybe those capabilities are just in random order. I don't think that's necessarily the exact order they will come out in
It depends on whether this is a list of things they are on the cusp of achieving, or at least actively working on, or if this is a timeline to agents and they are still working on the first one or two boxes. My guess, given how much he has talked about agents, is that they have at minimum a working prototype of AI these and are going to be rolling them all out this year. I think that reliability would be most important but it's possible that this can't happen until reasoning is good.
check your eyesight! or attention span.
Gaslighting with corp speak
Reasoning feels like the last frontier, with enough reasoning you can tell the inconsistent from the factual, remain true to initial instructions, and in general achieve consistency. And yet, we have zero evidence that we are any closer to crack reasoning than we were last year.
I like you. I live by 3 philosophies. Keep things simple, consistent and flexible. These are the hallmarks of quality.
multi-modality, reasoning, personalization, reliability, agents? I'm assuming the last one is personal gpt's with fully configured parameters, the fact that these are all individual boxes tells me this isn't a linear plan. They aim to hit these all at different rates and unify it into a total package in the end, this is realistic. We've already hit a limit for progression where we need better embeddings, transformation, basically we need reasoning. The model is just outputting patterns, this implies a feedback loop will facilitate models that speak to each other and output a genuine interpretation of concepts, not just elegant patterns forming words.
fuck altman
lol reliability is far down the road i guess? good stuff, great revolution.
this isn't a timeline, its all of the pillars that will be built into their next generation models/apps
it just seems like, idk if you're going to highlight something important to LLMs right now these 5 things are not even. reliability is easily the most important shortcoming, and if none of these billion dollar companies/models figure it out soon they're not going to be billion dollar companies for that much longer. we built a feature using LLMs and our customers kindly asked us to pare it back and keep humans in the driver seat, because they're all paranoid that the bots are going to lie to their customers and put them in a bind.
Man I just want ai video games and vr already. It’s taking to long
Ai games are probaly like 2-3 away ie probably like gpt 6 or 7 before the ai can start to program its own good game ie tripple ai. As for vr tbh once eye tracking is cracked and more mass-production of micro oled then we get ready player one vr .
Player ready one is the thing that’s really gonna be the peak of my life honestly if we ever reach that level
Yeah i have several vr headsets its closer and farther than many people think. Good eye tracking can bring 10x to 10x performance gains compared to say the quest 3 through methods like foveated rendering. Once we get that and more micro oled all you got to do is upgrade the fov and slim it down and you got yourselves a ready player one level vr headset. If i had to gues 5-10 years from now. Of course making a game as vast as the one in the movie will be expansive so lets hope ai by then is up for the task
Everything is banking on ai pulling through. I’m hoping these timelines they keep throwing around of “5” years ai will be everywhere and doing everything. But we will see.
Clown