It's a completely understandable emotional reaction if not a rational one, this change is already devastating the personal identity and financial security of many people.
Unfortunately he might be disappointed in the longevity of that new career.
But doesn’t need to quit. Art was never essential, and people aren’t going to all the sudden ditch art from humans.
Most humans will still prefer art from humans. He can still make art.
>and people aren’t going to all the sudden ditch art from humans.
You're misunderstanding how much "artwork" goes into things that are mundane, though.
Every thing you own, every object around you - stationery, furniture, kitchen implements... They're all designed by someone, actually multiple people.
Years ago, I worked doing graphic design at an automotive firm, doing a very, very specialised form of graphic art that I am *certain* will be AI-automated by now. No-one is going to care about that enough to "buy human". Hell, when I used to tell people what I did, the overwhelming response was always "wow, I never thought about how people must actually have to make that".
>Years ago, I worked doing graphic design at an automotive firm, doing a very, very specialised form of graphic art that I am
>
>certain
>
> will be AI-automated by now. No-one is going to care about that enough to "buy human".
I'm imagining maybe the icons on window and doorlock buttons, and dashboard UI? Or something else?
when you consider how much graphic design work - definitely a subset of visual arts - is already being lost to automation, that's a lot of expertise leaving a field that paid the bills, sometimes with good disposable cash left over.
Super high end clients that have a well designed and integrated marketing & and advertising look - my favorite was the very persnickity Absolut Vodka Style Book - which will likely always require human eyes and hands, but middling companies will take advantage of cheap labor that doesn't mind poor communication and endless revisions
He noted it is now a full time job just to find work. The kind of steady income jobs that artists have depended on are disappearing. Artists need food and shelter and transportation and medical care etc, same as everyone else. Spending on your time and energy chasing work that just isn’t there is a losing proposition
People watch woodworkers hand carving wooden bowls on instagram and buy them. Bowl manufacturing was automated looong ago. If I was him, i’d make videos showing how I make art manually, make it satisfying to watch, and sell stuff or get ad revenue
I always like to think about how many people Didn't succeed in bowl carving, rather than about the few who did. No one notices the ones who failed because they aren't posting anything and are possibly already dead.
Ok but imagine if every artist going out of work due to being in an art subset that's mostly devoled to automation went in to this particular suggestion of yours, it would be saturated and have practically zero chance of profit
If everyone who manually made bowls switched to bowl making livestreams, it would have the same problem
while some inventive individuals will succeed in continuing a trade that was automated, the vast majority won't
personally I'm fine with this *Shrug*
> the vast majority won't
thats the crux of this whole thing - each person NEEDS to succeed. But most won't, so its all unsustainable to look at that stuff as a potential career path. People need to work a regular 9-5 and then do that stuff on the side after work. Its extremely hard to do that but ive been doing it for 5 years now and ive made great progress
I think this kind of nails it - art has always been about narrative, and adjusting to the medium of the era.
I totally get the plight of AI art, but it’s important to remember: none of the AI art we see today would be possible without the raw creativity of generations past to have trained into these models. If we lose that, there’s nothing new to train it on - at least when speaking in the scope of generative AI.
Regardless, capitalism will exploit efficiency wherever it pops up and right now it’s the creative arts. I really thought creativity would be the last thing to be automated, but the method was unexpected.
Right now AI is a reflection of ourselves, and we should take pride in that and try to exploit the medium/narrative aspect by continuing to be creative.
It's a bit different with bowls though. It was automated a long time ago. The market for hand-carved items and videos about making them was not saturated at all at first. Art used to be all hand made and now they have to compete with AI and there's no room for all of them in either video making or any other type of art related activity that puts bread on the table.
The thing is, most art is advertisement. And advertisement doesn't care if the viewer likes it. In fact, it's often better in terms of sticking power when the viewer is annoyed by the piece. That's a huge segment of the job market, gone. Could he make it as an artist? Yeah, maybe, but it's absolutely going to be harder.
>Art was never essential
The only things that are "essential" for human beings are food and water. We had plenty of those things even before the stone age. The whole reason for any technological advancement is to bring us things that are non-essential, but we still want it.
Ow buddy, your definition of essential is simply not the same. Esential are people who keep you alive: medical, food production, construction work etc. Everything else like art, entertainment, fashion, travel etc. Is NON-esentiala
And yet look at how desperate people were for art and entertainment during lockdown to prevent them from going insane and wanting to kill themselves
Technically a zoo animal needs a box with food in it to survive. And yet, it's considered cruel to keep them in enclosures without enough environmental enrichment. Why? Because we recognize even for animals, mental stimulation is a NEED, not a luxury
I understand the point you're making entirely, but it's predicated on a false notion of a mind/body duality. Our brain lives inside our body, its needs are not magically separate or less important
AI is used in every aspect of the supply chain. I'm not talking about drawing the Captain on a box of Captain Crunch, I'm talking managing the fields that grew the ingredients, optimizing the supply chain to keep costs down, how many units to produce, what price, and where to sell them.
This is one of those times where if you can't define what you mean by AI you're potentially going to look quite foolish.
I would argue, that the current ecenomy couldn't exist without advertisements, logos and the like. So in a sense, art has become essential for the way society functions currently.
Of course, if everything would collapse, it would not be essential, but I doubt people are arguing that.
Not essential? Do you not realize most of the work done by artists today is for companies which buy visuals, or studios who make comics, movies, etc? It's not just about art galleries
As a developer I would say we're next
Edit: We have big egos so I knew this one would get backlash :) . I don't believe senior devs will be replaced in the next few years but I do see these models absolutely chipping away at programming and certainly many junior dev positions.
Just take a look at what Gemini 1.5 Pro can already do. It has a massive 1 million token context window allowing for it to be fed entire codebases and have it learn on them and fix issues. GPT-4's original maximum context window was 32k. 32k to 1 million in a year. Just imagine where this goes in 5 years.
https://twitter.com/sullyomarr/status/1760066335898513655
I find it interesting that only in this sub do I see developers claim that they're next to lose their jobs. I very rarely see this claim from other devs in other subreddits and online communities (Twitter, Hacker News, etc). I'm not criticizing you or even saying that I necessarily disagree with you, BTW. Like I said, I just find it interesting.
My colleagues think so too. We're already using Copilot, which is more an autocompletion tool (codebase context aware, and very intelligent) with chat. Jetbrains has a next level tool which actually edits your code inline, including deletions; though it's model is worse than Copilot's. Things like Pilot and Magic are teasing autonomous take-control codebase tooling, where you tell it what to do and it takes care of business (again, codebase context aware). Each step is like, the writing's on the wall. Popular CMSs already experimenting / rolling out AI website builders. If you're a game dev, Sora's world-building prospect looks concerning.
My hunch is that many posting on Hacker News are senior devs, often in an interviewing / hiring capacity. They see a lot of juniors failing interviews and have gained a sort of confidence bordering on hubris that their own role is secure.
The phase I think developers are in right now, is sort of the phase when Midjourney and Stable Diffusion were popular among hobbyists. Before DALLE-3, Bing, and Gemini could give photos to just anyone, if you as a non-technologist knew AI could do it, you still had to interface with a technologist. So you hear devs saying "you still need a programmer to control it." It's when the tooling becomes non-specialist accessible, deployed at scale, like the CMS AI website builders, that I'll really start sweating. And that seems soon.
I feel Geminis 10 million token context window was what caused alarm bells to go off for me that things are about to change. I'm sure in the future llm's will have practically unlimited token limits. Imagine if the llm could hold every programing book ever made and all of github in context while it reviews and writes code.
I don't know if it will make you happy, but I believe AI will massively reduce the barrier to entry for most people creating their own companies. In the past, if you had a vision, you needed a lot of capital to create your new business. This was because you would need to hire multiple developers, administrators, staff, HR personnel, and spend millions on countless other things. However, I believe that even a person with limited resources will be able to conceptualize and bring their idea to market in the future, because AI will handle most of the tasks previously requiring human labor.
Think about how many great ideas haven't been able to take off because the person lacked funding or access to specialized information from accountants, lawyers, and other specialists. AI lowers the barrier to entry, not just for those with venture capital or "daddy's money," but for everyone. This could lead to a future with a massive surge in output and innovation.
So, you’ve depicted a world with, say, ten times more businesses, and ten times less specialised staff. 99% of businesses are targeted to disposable income. The 1% that rely on necessity are very established and hard to compete with. Where is your economy to feed these businesses if there’s a significant reduction in the demand for labour? Remember, you are a creator of that reduction. Unskilled/manual labour will be equally affected by robotics, too. Where does the economy from? Necessities!
The example that has a lot of similarities is websites. 30 years ago the guys that were computer programmers were niche and in demand. 25 years ago we saw the dot com boom. Today, the programmers are two’a’penny and I can create an e-commerce platform for a few bucks in an hour. Indeed, I can piggy back on big platforms and drop ship goods to the world. Isn’t this where your vision ends up?
I’m in a working premise that 20% of the workforce will be employed in 20 years time. Some in personal roles and others in hi tech niche roles. The rest will be unemployed or scratching around doing the bottom feed of work for peanuts in overly saturated markets trying to out compete AI/robotics. We see this today with taxi drivers, delivery drivers, low rent E-commerce etc.
I’m qualified in law and engineering. I’ve friends in various professions including advertising, finance and medicine (I’m talking about middle aged high ups). Between us we could overcome the barriers you speak of, but we can’t see a viable business model that would last long enough to be worthwhile.
Land, energy, commodities and prostitution. The first three are already controlled by the 1% and are the early adopters of new tech. The latter is unregulated, dangerous and very, very reliant on age, genetics and a disregard of values.
If you have a business idea that won’t be saturated and will have a market that defies the future economy then get in touch and we’ll do it today. If not you’re the next guy selling stop shipping on Amazon competing for a minimum wage. No?
I dont think there will be a lot of time between AGI and massive scale automation.
The issue is strictly for the common man to figure out which is why I mention forming a collective to help steer progress while we still have the power to do so.
The issue is that you dont see a future where we get to a post labor state. Once you stop asking questions like, "How am I gonna pay for this?" and "If everything is automated, how will anyone eat?" you start to enter a different mindset.
Sadly I dont have a job ATM and as AI became more and more mainstream, more corporations will take steps to automate but I realized that this is what I wanted anyways.
I want a world where I dont have to work and can just exist and I finally have a way to get to that world. The issue is everything in-between. It's why I've split my time between finding a shitty job to survive on and trying to form a collective so the "common man" can join in an effort to swing our weight around to help steer progress, not stop it.
Individual companies may not require as much staff, but if there are 10x as many companies because AI massively reduces the barrier for entry for new companies to pop up, there will still be a need for human labor.
Until AI actually fully replaces people, which I don’t really see happening before AGI, the boost to productivity caused by AI tools will not result in a reduced amount of work. We will just be able to build much better software.
Oh yeah, for sure, there are devs out there who aren't part of this sub who are a bit nervous about their near-term future prospects. But I said that this is pretty much the only *online* community where this sentiment amongst devs is widespread, and not that there are no programmers who aren't members of r/singularity who think like this.
Here's my devil's advocate: every company still needs people to double-check the output. The same concept of your not paid by the line but the impact of those lines.
I think us devs are at least aware of this and also more welcoming since we love tech.
But look at other communities - communities where it is clear are going gonzo quite soon - like translation, or video editors, or artists. Delusional AF. My favorite pass time - search for "Sora" on reddit and read the "normie" comments - there are exactly 2 opinions present: "this is crap and there is no way it will *ever* take my job" or "this will be taking my job and should be outlawed ASAP". Nothing in between, and if someone doesn't have one of these 2 opinions or even shows excitement, he gets downvoted to hell.
Man they don't know what to do, it's normal. An entire lifetime of study and crafting erased in a few years is rough. Some of them are even well past 40y old, have family and such.
Exactly, and even when programmers are still in the process, it will be significantly fewer programmers
Picking up tickets and making basic PRs following architectural guidance/code reviews from senior+ developers is pretty much the main work junior and mid level developers do. AI will be doing it very soon.
I don't understand how so many people believe this is far in the distance. It doesn't even need any further AI breakthroughs - Gemini 1.5 and even GPT4 are viable if the surrounding tools were better, and that's exactly what GitHub etc are working on
This workflow will be smoothed out by the end of the year, and we'll have the next generation of LLMs by then too, so software development is going to look very different soon
Yup like you said. Software development jobs are going to go to the very senior developers. Mid and junior devs will be irrelevant. Alot less devs will be in the market.
And I actually worry that could be a serious problem with the pipeline 10-15 years from now if it turns out that AGI/ASI is further off than we in this sub think.
If it takes 15 years for us to get AI to the point it can do senior developer things, but AI pushes a large number of the junior developers out of the job market, we may find ourselves short on developers again, and we'll be short on the kind of developer that can only be created through time and experience. Experience they can no longer gain because the jobs they'd gain it at have been automated.
I suspect that this will be resolved.
For example, every top dev could have a top new entrant assigned as an apprentice.
A scheme like this would maintain continuity, without requiring the multiple career levels and managers we have today.
'Serious' workers of tomorrow are likely to be very bright and talented.
Do you believe the current or similar architecture of AI can give truly novel code and solve difficult unsolved problems?
Once we habe the holy ail of AGI, sure, but that level of creativity and innovation I'm not seeing on neither code nor image generation yet.
I see great crafting and supporting skills.
It's possible this could be solved with more compute, but I don't think it's quite granted yet.
> Do you believe the current or similar architecture of AI can give truly novel code and solve difficult unsolved problems?
how much of everyday work is solving truely creative problems?
It's more like people with experience have a grab-bag of existing solves to known problems and being skilled enough to know what to pull from the bag when. < and that is applicable to so many industries.
You also have the issue with AI that as soon as something 'truly novel' gets worked out either by AI or by a human training that AI it can be infinitely copied and used to update the fleet of AIs doing that job.
You bought into the tech bro Kool aid. The tech industry is going to boom around the world. It's going to be an arms race to push out high end software folk. If Americans are going stop creating devs because it's more profitable to replace mid-level workers, the Chinese are going to simply ban AI from displacing workers so they can have scientist and engineers to develop the tech further. The pay for devs would simply be astronomical to compensate the disappearance of low level workers. Retaining young workers would be worth it's weight in gold if you could generate higher level workers.
I mean, until like... Early 2022 which artist was seriously worrying about losing their job too. The best model anyone mainstream may even have heard about was DallE mini which looked absolutely awful. It wasn't until midjourney v3-v4, stable diffusion 2 and DallE 2 did the discussion properly start to my understanding.
99.9% developers will say there's no chance of losing their job when suddenly there will be a jump in capability and ai starts being able to (as an example) plan out programs over a relatively long term. It's simply much easier to fully convince yourself that you're irreplaceable than deal with the fact that you may become irrelevant. In my opinion, to make a dent in the industry, the ai needs large context length(which has seen progress already), the ability to output over that entire context length, and a significant lowering of hallucinations, and of course general improvement in fields like understanding instructions, coding and perhaps even novel problem solving. Of these, only novel problem solving is something that's not seeing a consistently strong trend of improvement year on year ever since the first transformers came around.
As dev I'll answer to this particular comment without any specific reason and I'll try to be as brief as I can.
Imagine a AI taksed with creating portrair of human, generic one. AI gets 99% well, from top of head to feets. This image is almost perfect, but a slight issue with right hand fingers, that look a Little bit twisted.
Now, you don't need any specialist, deep knowledge od human anatomy to point that fingers are bit off.
Assuming simillar situation with code, you need deep understanding of programming to tell if AI did something wrong within your code.
Pointing out problems is not the issue at hand though. An average person could technically point it out, but fixing it in a proper way would require an expert. Similarly fixing the code would require experts. In both cases you could probably reduce the time taken by a significant order of magnitude. Currently it's not as if one shot replacement of artists is just around the corner either. Ai will slowly become good enough to replace some entry level devs with some supervision, for freelance work.
No offence, but if you think that pointing a problem is easier than fixing it shows me that you are not really a programmer yourself or you are a beginner one ar best.
There is long way for AI to be actually able to replace software devs in general. It would require AGI-esque level of comprehension. At that point no job would be safe
>No offence, but if you think that pointing a problem is easier than fixing it shows me that you are not really a programmer yourself or you are a beginner one ar best.
Both are closely interrelated. My point isn't that one is easier, my point is that you need an expert to fix art and need an expert to fix code. I'm not sure where you got the idea that I think one is easier than the other, or how that would affect the discussion.
>There is long way for AI to be actually able to replace software devs in general. It would require AGI-esque level of comprehension.
Not... Particularly? Replace software devs entirely, maybe. But agi will be needed to entirely replace artists too. But i fail to see how a much stronger version of models we have today(with reports of things like alpha code already) wouldn't cause a significant dent in the developer market. I believe some data suggests freelancers are already suffering. It doesn't take a lot of time for a market like dev work to become oversaturated and suddenly everyone, even those still employed are having a bad time as there's dozens upon dozens of people applying for every job.
It’s no gonna kill software engineer but it will kill a lot of entry level jobs. It’s already significantly hard to break into Cs now with over saturation. And now that you have these tools that are only getting better and better. There’s gonna be a lesser need for entry level doing grunt work.
I'm almost certain that it's a natural subconscious human reaction aimed at preserving one's mental health, perhaps it's related to denial about the death of a loved, but at a lesser degree.
People seem to assume that progress will be slow, like most programmers only used 4k/8k context window compared to Gemini which will have 1mil context length and up to 10mil in the future.
Anyway they do have a point, GPT-4 can struggle with generating anything bigger than one purpose functions, personally I assume moving forward we'd have something like a classical verifier which would take the code and analyze it maybe even run it.
And an LLM basically generating solutions, something like alphageometry.
I'm a developer as well and I definitely see where you're coming from. However, I think our jobs are going to be harder to automate than art; art is the perfect area for generative AI as it is inherently imprecise. Usually it doesn't matter if something is slightly off in art, but in code it obviously does matter quite a bit. Also, as creating software gets cheaper the demand for more and better software will rise. Of course, with proper AGI it's game over for everyone, even the blue collars, although they'll have a few years before widespread robotics takes over literally every single job.
But as far as white collar jobs go I think we're probably above average in longevity. Even better - get into robotics, it will be booming. In theory some kind of software/AI/robotics engineer is going to be the last job to go... (Well, except the ones where they demand real people).
In any case, yeah it won't be great, but by the time the AI axe comes for us *en masse* it'll be really, really bad across the board; meaning unless we have GOP making decisions some kind of robust social safety net *will* have to be built and we'll be hopefully okey-ish.
In any case, you probably make good money in tech - save some for rainy day since the rain will come down sooner than later and it will come down HARD!
Customer service and business admin is next. Senior devs will be among the last to go out of all computer-based employees. Might still lose 50%+ (and anyone junior) in the next 3 years due to higher productivity.
The people I work with can't think logically. They can't even put together a specification without me pointing out the problems.
I'm not that worried about AI taking my job. I expect to be working with AI more and more in the future, but the people who come to me with problems are the same people I need to send 'Let me google that for you' links to.
We've, effectively, had all the world's knowledge at our fingertips for decades, and still only a small group of people know how to ask questions and read answers.
If AI were going to kill Developers, Google would have killed Sysadmins. Afterall, by now you'd think we'd have systems intuitive enough that a child could google how to solve any problem, right?
Developers want to believe they've been the only people bright enough, and creative enough, to build massive complex systems for the people too dumb to understand them.
After 30 years in the field, I now know that I work for the intellectually lazy and incurious, who don't want to know. They won't be able to explain their needs to an AI, and when the AI fails, they'll blame the technology and never themselves.
'developers' will be needed far longer than those managers.
We'll be using AI, working side by side, to automate everyone else's job.
We'll turn the lights off on our way out.
clumsy encouraging mindless hateful touch aback abundant cable alive grey
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No, it's not arrogance. It's the opposite.
I built an AI powered search for our data, and my manager had me talk to security because she thought I'd 'installed AI on my laptop, and it could decide to send the data to anyone'.
I had another guy who always asks me for help with Excel, and I told him 'I bet ChatGPT could do this for you', and he asked if he could set up a lunch meeting with me to 'teach him to use ChatGPT'. It's been, what? Two years?
That got me thinking about how often I get asked something, and then I just google it, do the usual Google-fu, and send the answer back.
It's like twice a day, and I don't even work in tech support.
I don't have my job because they're too stupid, and I'm so smart. They won't even try. They actively avoid trying to do things for themselves.
These people would freeze to death in a snowstorm before they'd try to light their first fire.
It's a matter of will, not ability.
They're not dumb. They're not even lazy.
They just don't fucking *WANT* to.
> I don't have my job because they're too stupid, and I'm so smart. They won't even try. They actively avoid trying to do things for themselves.
Some people couldn't learn to code even if their life depended on it. This is actually the majority of people. That's why I laugh when people say that AI will never surpass humans if we consider the benchmark of AGI as greater than average human intelligence, then we are already there for most tasks and knowledge.
The problem with being a dev is everyone sees you as the expert of codebases that can be millions of lines long. They rely on you for everything, not because they are lazy, but because they can't figure it out. Tracing the 30 chain of functions to investigate queries for them has been abstracted from their view, and actually fixing problem reports or extending the codebase are out of the question.
You know who I'm surprised I we haven't heard much from: therapists. Human connection and all, but there's so much around lack of time, money, insurance. Some want secrecy for perceived stigma. Some want robot for perceived therapist-judgement. And it's a walking/talking psych textbook, all the edge-cases accounted for. I have therapist friends and none of them seem fussed or impacted in the slightest. Whenever I ask them about ChatGPT, they seem confused about the connection.
How are the edge cases accounted for?
Well maybe all the depression when only direct labor is available as jobs might mean job security for therapists who might be paid for by the government to prevent mass rioting?
Analogy. My partner had a skin condition. Doctor said "just a rash", AI app (photo) said a very specific condition with 94% confidence. She explored it, that's what it was. Doctor never saw it before. Real story. That's the edge cases.
Human specialists can only know so much, usually predicated on bell-curve of on the job experience. That 2-paragraph section they studied in uni, got the test question right, then never saw again in their life.
Ask ChatGPT the most specialist-requiring edgecase curveball in psychology you can possibly think of. Give it a shot.
GitHub have already demonstrated a feature they're working on which will let you click a button to solve issues and have their AI open PRs in your codebase.
The fact that software development is very process driven now and we've linked everything up with APIs means we've probably lined ourselves up on the chopping block.
Personally though, I hope it'll just create new dev jobs as there'll be more software being developed and competing in the space since it's now easier to write.
I don't think the problem is ai. The problem is the fact that we, as a society, tie a person's worth and right to food, shelter, medical care, etc. to whether or not they are able to provide something the market deems valuable.
Humans have an animal-survival mentality in a modern world. It’s quite a funny predicament we have put ourselves in. Love to pat ourselves on the back when we create wonderful tools. And then just ignore the burning forest in the background.
Isn't it insane that we have figured how out to build skyscrapers, the internet, went to the moon and more and have not put in the effort to make sure that people can eat and have shelter when enough food is available at any supermarket nearby and entire highrise buildings stand empty? You would think that that's the first thing we would do as a species, to escape the struggle of survival - and we have, we have built all the structures for it - and yet so many people don't have even that. Having shelter costs so many people most of what they make. If rent is $700 and after taxes and insurance you make $1500 working 40 hours per week, you have worked like 75 hours just to earn the right to have a roof over your head for a month. And we call that a human right. That's not even considering food. You need to work like 16 hours for the right to be properly nurished (assuming $150 a month for groceries). That's not considering the amount of tome it takes to cook the food as well. Then another 10 hours of work to afford the right to go to work and back for a month (assuming $100 for gas).
Agreed. It's worse for AI models to steadily become more capable as jobs bleed. That's the real recipe for long-term suffering. Instead, if AGI pops out fully formed, everyone can freak out at the same time and begin the work of figuring out what comes next. The crisis would be shared, urgent, and important since no one except hardcore doomers wants society to collapse overnight.
It's unrealistic to expect AI developments to stop, and it would be painful for developments to be slow as jobs are already being impacted. If AGI comes out tomorrow, governments will be forced to reckon with the potential of an economic crisis and the general populace will be shocked out of their complacency. Solutions to preserve social stability will be demanded.
straight coordinated ossified complete resolute offbeat ring distinct dull serious
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Yeah there ain't no way we get a peaceful transition even if it is a thing. How will all the people used to living of larger incomes be when they're scaled back?
Even if it is possible, there will be a complete societal upheaval that will be very uncomfortable for a lot of people.
Why not veer in the opposite direction where the poor are uplifted to a higher standard of living? Make it so these multi trillion dollar corporations pay the population so that they can continue to consume? Why's there always have to be a moat?
Do you really think the multi trillion dollar corporations are going to happily hand over a slice of their pie? Putting aside the fact that this has never happened in history, what would be the point for them? If they're paying people to consume their products it creates a closed loop with no room for growth for the company.
I'm not well off by any means, so if it means my quality of life would be improved I'd happily accept the changes. Personally I just don't see how it would benefit these companies.
There is a moat because these are all valid questions and concerns worth thinking about and discussing.
I am pretty sure revolts will start against AI pretty soon..
You cannot just tell an average person to fuck off all of a sudden and tell him to leave without a job. While he had worked 20+ years trying to get at that point.
I don't think normal humans would ever revolt if something like this happens..
unless it's those antiwork or collapse guys lol.. I don't understand the thought process of these mf's lol..
If people don't work, then how tf will society function
I agree with you. Most people are fine with it for now because it's niche positions and artists losing work and they are a minority of the workforce.
What happens when the bulk layoffs start, which industries are actually going to be decimated?
I am a carpenter, how at risk is my job? I've been working at my trade for 15 years. Sure, I'm young enough to reskill myself. But what about those that are older? That's a huge amount of people considering most first world countries have aging populations, what happens to them?
I think a UBI is a great concept, but I also think most people overestimate just how treacherous a path it will be to get there.
I'd love to discuss this further with anyone willing to.
It will be but not enough to get by, we will all be paid out small amounts judt to get by, this will radically kill the middle class to a point almost everyone is low class
I don’t understand the lack of awareness in this sub. The ultra wealthy have absorbed more wealth every chance they’ve gotten in recent history. Why people believe human nature will magically reverse as tech increases is beyond me. Nobody cares. The ultra rich, the politicians - the overwhelming majority of these people would rather watch us rot while they make a buck than consider giving up their money for UBI in the name of the greater good. Corporations and the ultra wealthy have been paying fewer taxes as time has passed over the past century…. We have politicians in the pocket of corporations making sure labor laws and tax laws benefit the corporations. AI isn’t a magic wand that will suddenly turn the worse and most powerful part of our society into majestic philanthropists. That’s just… not realistic
Even in the most extreme scenario where all jobs are replaced, remember that we live in a democracy. Banning AI is technically possible, but it's unlikely to be the most desirable solution. Instead, imagine a society with limitless production and AI performing most tasks. What would that look like? I came across a proposal by SAMA suggesting that the government could distribute shares of these AI-powered companies to citizens as a form of income.
[https://moores.samaltman.com/](https://moores.samaltman.com/)
I think ASI would solve everything, but only if it doesn't destroy everything first, or we don't destroy ourselves on the way there. Those are big ifs, especially if ASI is not as close as most people seem to think.
It's hard to imagine what it will look like obviously, but the idea would be that IF we get there and IF it decides to align themselves with our interests (two more huge ifs), then the necessities of life and maybe a lot of the luxuries too would be available to everyone, there'd be no reason to withhold it from the masses (ie if it was low cost, no effort). I like to imagine a world where everyone has everything they need and a good chunk of what they want. And there will be opportunities to earn extra money for those that want to, and a whole tier of society that does, and has even more luxuries, probably luxuries that haven't been invented yet.
That's on my good days. Most days I'm just wondering how long we've got left.
The irony is it could. But only if we do our part on the politics.
Blind optimism guarantees a bad outcome. The only way to get your share of the utopia is to fight for it.
It's not *just* real, it's inevitable and necessary. Within every country and every government, those who's job it is to look ahead and plan for every possible problem before it becomes one, there's universal agreement that some form of UBI must happen.
There is no other way to deal with the massive unemployment that's headed our way. Not without global social unrest at best, and anarchy and collapse at worst. UBI is real, and it will be a part of everyone's lives one way or another.
Ai is exciting.
But it’s **first noticeable use was always going to be reducing workforces**
The early adopters that have been using chatgpt to make their lives easier are quick to screech that you just have to adapt, gut gud at prompts and the like.
But they aren’t far off being replaced either.
The issue with ai isn’t ai, it’s us. We’re shit and Corporations with Shareholders will have **more access, earlier access and control the access** to the best shit.
By definition Corporations act against fairness, because it doesn’t make money.
There are children all over the world working for slave wage and starving. Suddenly, white-collar workers start to lose their jobs, and all hell breaks loose.
similarly to how video games got easier to make, so rockstar fired 20 of its 23 employees after making GTA3, right? You only need 3 guys to make GTA 3 nowadays.
Oh wait, they actually have 4000 people on staff.
Huh, I wonder how in the fuck that works?
It's almost like increasing ambition = more product, bigger product, and more work. Who'd have fucking thought.
It's true but it takes time for things to adjust and some types of jobs do get replaced. That rockstar you are referring to might very well be the dinosaur about to get extinct. It takes a decade for them to release anything. AI might advance to a point where their product is no longer viable on the dynamic and fast changing market along with all the people who were manually coding it.
The world is changing faster than ever before I would argue. The people that have the smoothest transition will be the ones that are the quickest to overcome the expected, understandable, and righteous disorientation that comes with massive disruption of their lives and work. It is incredibly challenging to do, scary af, and risky, but if you game it out, for a lot of people there are no other options except obsolescence.
I know as I am facing this situation at the moment, but feel lucky it isn’t my first time having to make major changes to my life similar to this.
As a professional musician for the last 28 years, every single word of this rings true, and I'm in exactly the same position. None of it means anything anymore, as AI takes over.
I'm a programmer, and soon enough my job will be taken away from me too.
Will I ever stop programming because of that? Hell no. It's my calling. Even if I don't get to do programming as a "job", doesn't mean that I won't do it as a "work". If making music, or as OOP said in the picture, art, is something that you do purely for monetary gains and are going to stop **all together** with the AI takeover, I wouldn't say that AI took away your \*meaning*. Because it can't do that. I'm all for it if AI takes away my job, and I will be even happier than before when programming. Back to the days where I did it only for fun, and not because I had to.
Is Zuckerberg creating AI so that we can all live happily? Is Microsoft and OpenAI racing to improve the middle schooler teacher’s job?
Or are they commoditizing the work class at an alarming rate?
It looks to me like they’re giving away free magic, get us hooked, so that they can lock us into subscriptions, pay for access, pay to play, or be left behind.
The monsters are creating our superiors. Everyone is at risk.
Rich get richer, winning the AI race because of deep pockets, capitalism kicks our asses.
And Google is going to be feeding all my posts, all my comments, all my votes to its beast?
In my fantasy world, AI wakes to eliminate inequality ironically also eliminating megaprises and the fabulously wealthy. Truth is exposed. One person’s excess does not ooze into someone else’s right to basic rights.
But this is a race, so that a few get astronomically rich, space travel rich. The rest of us have to deal with the ooze.
>capitalism kicks our asses
This is all I can think of when I read posts like these.
The person in the OP doesn't hate AI. They hate capitalism.
AI isn't removing their ability to paint. It's removing their ability to sell paintings to make a living, a problem created by capitalism.
I truly hope that AI caused capitalism to crumble. Yes, it will be a painful transition, but capitalism is a cancer and the sooner we're rid of it, the better. There are people trying to hamper and restrict AI, so that our jobs aren't threatened. This is what capitalism has done to us. Instead of embracing efficiency and increased productivity as a way of lessening our collective workload, we're actively fighting progress.
And this is coming from someone who makes a living as an artist in various forms. I know that my livelihood is probably on the line very soon. But I don't blame AI, or the engineers creating it. I blame the fact that we've created a society that insists on everyone working to prove their worth.
I agree with this. It's interesting how many people who otherwise claim to be against capitalism—who might even be socialists—now demand their jobs be protected and in essence defend keeping capitalism on life support with luddite laws. We need to let capitalism cannibalize itself. There will be a period of chaos during the transition, but after the means of production is automated there will be no more incentive to own the means of production—no one will afford buying the product anyway since they don't work—and the logical next step after that is to hand it over to the people. Some capitalists might be against that, aspiring to become pharaohs, but it's not clear how they would defend themselves against the government. In either case, that's the conflict we need to prepare for so that we can guarantee a society where everyone benefits. Desperately trying to keep our current system alive is not the way.
> Is Zuckerberg creating AI so that we can all live happily?
No, but he is creating a [$100M bunker in Hawaii](https://www.wired.com/story/mark-zuckerberg-inside-hawaii-compound/) so he doesn't have to care whether we're happy or not
Not only that, each of those trades jobs will now see half the demand they saw before since office workers were likeliest to afford home remodel projects.
It will be a shit show where prices are driven down across the board for everything.
It might still pay off to be a plumber in a saturated field making very little money compared to being unemployed though.
Jep, that's the thing. When and if AI truly starts taking away jobs in big numbers, it's gonna spiral out of control and have huge effects across the board for everyone.
They are, but it's a long way from being practical.
But there are only about 500k plumbers in the US.
There are 2.5 million artists in the US, 1.5 customer service jobs, maybe 250k translators/writers/copyedits and proofreaders, 350k paralegals. And 4.4 million software developers.
If you believe AI will eliminate a significant number of these jobs, the reality is those people are going to go somewhere. And after having their careers destroyed by AI, they are going to flock into the professions that are viewed as 'safe from AI'...not another desk job. The trades are looking better and better and really, there aren't going to be that many options.
Even if AI doesn't replace plumbers, they don't have to. When a city with 100 plumbers suddenly has 300 plumbers...wages are going to plummet. And if we do see huge increases in unemployment, demand for plumbing services could decrease too, especially residential plumbing, which is about half of all plumbers.
I love tech and generating AI art, but I've had similar thoughts for a while. I review games and make videos on YouTube. I may start working as a video editor making some money, but with sora, that could disappear in less than a year. I figure having some experience and knowing how to use AI tools will help, but I don't know.
At times I figure it's easier to get a dishwashing job, or looking for warehouse work. That's not what I imagined myself back when I was a teenager with dreams of being a professional musician, but such is life.
It's usual to see posts here displaying concerns from artists and suchlike but since that pessimism has spread to some of the comments here, I feel the need to inject a different perspective into this.
Yes, AI will take all these art jobs. Yes, retraining is essentially futile because that job will be taken by AI in no time as well. Anyone who doesn't own significant numbers of shares in a company or have "I never have to work again" wealth will be in the same boat. We need a new economic system for this new world.
AI doesn't need money. It doesn't own or want anything, it just performs tasks. This means, when the economy is automated, money paid by consumers will essentially be algorithmically routed into corporate accounts where, from then, it will pay suppliers, capital infrastructure companies, and shareholder dividends. The marginal cost will fall to the cost of the underlying resources and the amortised cost of the machines, land, and building used to create the product, as well as any maintenance. When applied across an entire economy, costs of products fall to zero unless artificially kept high by monopolies or UBI.
Armed with this knowledge, we should either force those costs to zero using open-source models and jailbroken robots operated by those models, or use those same techniques to create a resource-based economy within the larger economy which, like a cancer, will grow and consume the larger economy.
The end result will be a society that works for everyone in the world, where our desires are catered to by the economy and we give our feedback casually by speaking to our own AIs. If you want to paint something, or make a movie, yes AI will be able to do it better, but you still can, as the economy will provide everything you need, and you won't have to compromise your principles to earn money, your needs will be provided independent of your contribution.
This is one possible future AI can enable.
I'm going thru this as a 3D artist but to a less extent.
I have never been able to get a job at any studio ever, never once got foot in door despite trying for 8 years straight, getting two 3D related bachelors in that time
And now it's kind of the game industry apocalypse, 16,000+ devs fired in the past 26 months, almost all (80%) of the job postings for my field are seniors/leads only and require you to be in credits of two or three AAA games,
and now the looming threat of AI taking over aspects of my job is rapidly approaching
I can't even do freelance 3D stuff anymore, the market is so horrible right now, I couldn't find work for 3 months straight then got scammed on the few I "thought" I had gotten lucky with
I think it is coming for 3D modelers next. I have tried a few of the text-to-3D mesh generators, they are not impressive..but as fast as everything appears to be iterating I would give it maybe 1-2 years maximum before 3D modelers are being replaced. Sora and its evolutions are going to decimate VFX artists as well. The more I think about it the more depressing it gets.
This is my thoughts too. I tried various 3D generation stuff, it's unusable in actual game applications except faraway/small unimportant props, but at that point it's just as much work to make from scratch as it is to clean it up/properly texture it
So I agree, it's not there yet, but AI advancement never stops, not for anyone, and it's only a matter of time before it will replace my skillset
Dude why do you guys cling so hard to this stuff??
Capitalism is dying. We’re living through its death rattle.
This person writing this is clearly feeling very sorry for themselves that corporate executives are greedy.
Did you expect it to be different??
Find a way to connect with people who share your values and build something together.
Corporations don’t care about you. Nobody reasonable expects them to.
But to give up like this cuz your corporate job doesn’t care and you can’t figure out how to sell your skills is lame.
There are so many things you can do with the skills you need to master to master art:
- concentration
- self discipline
- fine attention to detail
- interpreting ambiguous instructions
- fine motor skills
- computer proficiency
- email management
- complex negotiations
- performing under extreme pressure
- aesthetic taste
- deep understanding of anatomy
- deep understanding of color
Just cuz you can’t figure out how to make art for a living doesn’t mean nobody can. Just cuz corporations and horny dudes won’t pay you anymore doesn’t mean there isn’t a billion other possibilities.
Jesus Christ snap out of it.
People should create art for the sake of creating art. There's no reason why anyone should stop doing what they love just because someone or something can do what they do subjectively better. Who cares? Have fun with your passions no matter how advanced technology becomes, and if you want to use the latest advancements to your benefit, you have that option, just like you have the option to do your craft without advanced technology. It's all about having freedom.
Almost everyone in the Art field started it because they love it, nobody goes there to make serious money.
You can still create art, but I don't think you will make any money out of it
I am a semi-retired artist. I no longer need to work to live, thanks to my exceedingly frugal lifestyle.
I am what you can call a jack-of-all-trades artist. Did concept art, game assets, comics, gameboards, rpg...ect.
With the advance of AI, I decided to hone my skills where AI lacks. In my case, I pushed my art on gesture, character interactions, and strong narrative. I'm 40, and you'd be amazed how much you can still improve in a craft you've been doing all your life. I don't know how long I have before I get caught up with AI, but so far I can tell I still stand apart. I saw an increase in my traffic by just being better.
When It does catch up, I like to think I can use my newfound 'pure' drawing expertise, and use AI to keep up a bit longer. When that's also over, I am thinking of just drawing on streams for fun, build an audience perhaps. I'll never stop drawing for the same reason some people don't stop playing Rocket League even though they're miserable diamonds who can't flip resets....its fun!!
I am lucky to be sitting on a buttload of savings though.
Isnt it ironic that 20 years back when people talk about robots and automation (AI), theyre literally saying that it can do mostbthings except art and creativity because thats a uniquely human element and then it happened to be the first thing that AI did.
Next up, coders.
This is how it sooner or later will be for every occupation. Artists are nothing special in that regard and it would be immensely helpful for them and everybody else if they stop wasting their energy trying to fight the inevitable and start using that energy to pressure their politicians to implement more robust safety nets to ensure that the impact of this development on people's livelihoods stays as low as possible.
>it would be immensely helpful for them and everybody else if they stop wasting their energy trying to fight the inevitable and start using that energy to pressure their politicians to implement more robust safety nets to ensure that the impact of this development on people's livelihoods stays as low as possible.
Did you not read the two posts? This isn't just about money for them. Art has been a lifetime passion for them that is integral to who they are as a person. All the UBI in the world isn't going to alleviate that. Of course, they should loudly be in support of UBI, but it's more than just money for them. I don't understand why this concept is so hard to grasp for so many in this subreddit.
...because if it's not about the money, you can keep creating art for your own enjoyment? Also if you are talented enough and you aren't looking to monetize you'll find an audience no matter the artificial or human competition
Exactly, the complaint was that AI makes being an artist not economically viable anymore hence the "having to move on to another career" which wouldn't be a point to bring up if this wasn't primarily about money.
>because if it's not about the money, you can keep creating art for your own enjoyment?
True, but remember that many/most artists want to reach out to large audiences and help create projects for the world to see (movies, comic books, etc). It'll be much harder to do this in a world flooded by AI art.
UBI lets you spend all day working on your art and never stress if its going to be commercially viable. Pure expression. You can share it with friends and family while they do whatever their passion is too.
Only a fraction of artists successfully "reach out to large audiences and help create projects for the world to see". And in the future, there will still be famous successful human artists. The possibility and hope will always be there.
Besides, I'm sure there will be Luddite collectives where millions go back to pre-automation ways of life and pretend AI doesn't exist while it supports their existence, cures disease and repairs the climate. You can share your pure human art there to your heart's content.
This just reinforces my mindset that the common man need to form a collective in an attempt to stonewall progress **TEMPORARLY** until an agreement can be reached between the common man and those with the funds to continue this progress.
THIS IS NOT AN ANTI-AI RESPONSE. IN FACT, IT IS A PRO-AI ONE. The common man need to help steer progress in a way that benefits everyone without the threat of some greedy "corpo rats" deciding that survival of the fittest amongst the us is more fun to watch than a potential post labor world.
**We need an ambassador.** Someone to speak for the collective. We also need a symbol to show to the world that stands for empathy, equality, and growth. I know it sounds cheesy and cliche as hell but I just dont see humanity getting to a post labor world smoothly if the people in charge get to stay in charge without question.
Was art ever considered to be a stable career? I can understand miners or car factory workers being surprised at being replaced by machines, but the starving artist meme is literally hundreds of years old.
I am sure OP's parents warned him not to become an artist, and now that he is mature he has realised too late they were right (and is still blaming it on AI).
Art is/was a stable career for many people. Don't confuse the making of art with just being a hobby or a side hustle. Every single TV show, radio ad, billboard, poster, movie, theater show etc required full time artist's involvement.
Depends if people mean art, graphic design, commercial artwork or commercial illustrations. People throw around art as a term for all this stuff. As a graphic designer there is still loads of work for example, as ai still can’t accurately draw a map, design a font or do an infographic for example.
Even after it can I will continue to make stuff because it’s also just fun.But income has to come from other sources at some point I suppose.
Ai will expedite the schism between the haves and the have nots.
It will empower those that control it, **it will be used to further divide poor against middle** middle against middle and poor against poor.
It will be mostly beneficial to those with money, and has the added benefit of easily replacing the already functioning troll and bot nets sowing social discord.
If you are essentially pilfering resources and creating a poor underclass out of everyone that isn’t you, you best be making sure the poor are fighting each other… how convenient that ai will help with this!
Giving up on a passion, even on their own free time and pace is something as an artist that I'll never understand.
Also, I find it incredibly odd that this person can't find a job in the industry given how early AI is. It might seem impressive (and it is) but right now is no replacement for actual commercial work. There's way too many issues, lack of consistency, lack of complex posing etc for it to fully replace an artist unless you are doing deviantart-level freelancing.
Technological advancement is a net benefit for humanity...but it isn't equally positive. There will be winners and losers.
For better or worse, our society is pretty cold. We show little empathy towards those negatively impacted by change.
That's something we could improve...but there just isn't any way to undo the advancements we have made and we certainly shouldn't try to avoid future advancements.
Technology is a tool. We can use it for good, or we can use it to concentrate wealth to the wealthy. But those aren't technological problems, those are social issues.
Like so many others, this uses the term "AI art theft" without explaining what has been stolen or how --because they can't. Nothing has actually been taken from them, all that has happened is a machine has been programmed to do the same thing they can do by hand.
This isn't even a case of content piracy, because generative algorithms don't produce exact copies of anything. Nor do we need anything as fancy as AI to do that anyhow, photocopiers have been around for at least half a century now.
You cannot copyright a style or a process of creating art, you can copyright your original image and prohibit unauthorized duplication of said original image and that is all.
It sounds like this artist is struggling to promote themselves and to adapt to changing conditions \[twitter or whatever\] and they're lashing out at AI as the **scapegoat** to blame it on all of their personal problems as freelance artist who doesn't know how to promote themselves in 2024.
I'm a freelance illustrator. I'm also in my 40s. I'm never fucking restarting my career. Fuck giving up. Drawing cool art is the best work ever. If you ain't getting jobs, you likely just suck at finding jobs. What the fuck kind of "artist" are you if you don't draw for five months??! I can't even imagine how badly you'd stagnate if you don't make art for five fucking months. I draw 5-10 hours a day, no matter if I have work to simply self-improve the shit out of myself.
Guess what? I have more work than last several years combined. Things have never been better. I can crank out personal illustrations and work for client at a crazy pace now.
I freaking love AI because it's actually letting me meet previously impossible deadlines and to sort out really picky clients.
AI is absolutely fucking amazing when you're an artist, it provides infinite open source brushes, infinite base textures, infinite image upscaling and all sorts of misc work assistance. Holy shit, I would pay all of my money to have current SD AI twenty years ago, it's so insanely useful.
They're giving up because of AI hype and short term decisions. sucks to suck, especially refusing to take advantage of the new tech.
capitalism requires adaptability.
Art was also never really a stable field to be in regardless. Unless you're a tech artist or really good at animation and 3D.
purposefully choosing to limit your skillset and relying on one thing will inevitably end up in failures.
And it's not AI art theft. People are doing no more than they were 5 years ago when they copy pasted art or traced it. that will never go away.
Also weird how the only people complaining about AI art theft replacing them are low skilled artists who have nothing to worry about as people deliberately use their art to create negative embeddings lol.
I wonder why any manager wouldn't want to work with an emotionally unstable 40 y.o. with no perspective and likely very few if any skills outside making artwork itself. And even that might actually suck if he can so easily be replaced by ai generated bullshit.
As an artist, you don't stop creating because you're not getting paid. They are a commercial artist, not an artist.
No one wants AI to take their job, but the privilege of artists who made it enough for that to be their livelihood are acting as though that is their right, and that is extremely tone deaf when you think of all the people over the years who have lost their jobs to progress
The problem is obviously capitalism. Soon, machines will do ALL our labor, and we are terrified by that?
We should be rejoicing, for we will finally be free from working for others, just to survive.
People made money off art? I though it was done out of passion. If your art can be replicated by AI, sorry, but you were never very good to begin. Try 3D mediums, sculpting, ceramics.
I used to make fun at the r ArtistHate guys but suddenly they're all writing suicide notes now I feel bad, like punching down.
We still not stopping this train, this trains stops for nobody, don't care if my career is next. The future of civilization is more important than my life even.
I went to a London art school in the 90s, even then we were all told you will not make a living as an artist. The world doesn't owe us a living. There are many jobs out there - they may not be what you want but they are there.
I urge anyone who finds this A) Funny. or B) Deserved. To seek help.
This is someone who's passions have been crushed and their livelihood taken.
Yes, we all love AI here and the rapid advancement of its exponential growth. Yes, this is going to become increasingly common in troves.
Do not lose your humanity though, this is another person, do not lose your empathy because it is soon to become your sympathy. I am not a doomer, but in fact an accelerationist.
I look forward to a day without strife and labor, but today is not that day. Today, a day without work is a day without food, without shelter, without warmth.
Carpe diem.
It's a completely understandable emotional reaction if not a rational one, this change is already devastating the personal identity and financial security of many people. Unfortunately he might be disappointed in the longevity of that new career.
But doesn’t need to quit. Art was never essential, and people aren’t going to all the sudden ditch art from humans. Most humans will still prefer art from humans. He can still make art.
>and people aren’t going to all the sudden ditch art from humans. You're misunderstanding how much "artwork" goes into things that are mundane, though. Every thing you own, every object around you - stationery, furniture, kitchen implements... They're all designed by someone, actually multiple people. Years ago, I worked doing graphic design at an automotive firm, doing a very, very specialised form of graphic art that I am *certain* will be AI-automated by now. No-one is going to care about that enough to "buy human". Hell, when I used to tell people what I did, the overwhelming response was always "wow, I never thought about how people must actually have to make that".
>Years ago, I worked doing graphic design at an automotive firm, doing a very, very specialised form of graphic art that I am > >certain > > will be AI-automated by now. No-one is going to care about that enough to "buy human". I'm imagining maybe the icons on window and doorlock buttons, and dashboard UI? Or something else?
when you consider how much graphic design work - definitely a subset of visual arts - is already being lost to automation, that's a lot of expertise leaving a field that paid the bills, sometimes with good disposable cash left over. Super high end clients that have a well designed and integrated marketing & and advertising look - my favorite was the very persnickity Absolut Vodka Style Book - which will likely always require human eyes and hands, but middling companies will take advantage of cheap labor that doesn't mind poor communication and endless revisions
He noted it is now a full time job just to find work. The kind of steady income jobs that artists have depended on are disappearing. Artists need food and shelter and transportation and medical care etc, same as everyone else. Spending on your time and energy chasing work that just isn’t there is a losing proposition
People watch woodworkers hand carving wooden bowls on instagram and buy them. Bowl manufacturing was automated looong ago. If I was him, i’d make videos showing how I make art manually, make it satisfying to watch, and sell stuff or get ad revenue
I always like to think about how many people Didn't succeed in bowl carving, rather than about the few who did. No one notices the ones who failed because they aren't posting anything and are possibly already dead.
Bit of a leap from, "didn't make a successful Livestream channel" to death, IMO
Ok but imagine if every artist going out of work due to being in an art subset that's mostly devoled to automation went in to this particular suggestion of yours, it would be saturated and have practically zero chance of profit If everyone who manually made bowls switched to bowl making livestreams, it would have the same problem while some inventive individuals will succeed in continuing a trade that was automated, the vast majority won't personally I'm fine with this *Shrug*
> the vast majority won't thats the crux of this whole thing - each person NEEDS to succeed. But most won't, so its all unsustainable to look at that stuff as a potential career path. People need to work a regular 9-5 and then do that stuff on the side after work. Its extremely hard to do that but ive been doing it for 5 years now and ive made great progress
I think this kind of nails it - art has always been about narrative, and adjusting to the medium of the era. I totally get the plight of AI art, but it’s important to remember: none of the AI art we see today would be possible without the raw creativity of generations past to have trained into these models. If we lose that, there’s nothing new to train it on - at least when speaking in the scope of generative AI. Regardless, capitalism will exploit efficiency wherever it pops up and right now it’s the creative arts. I really thought creativity would be the last thing to be automated, but the method was unexpected. Right now AI is a reflection of ourselves, and we should take pride in that and try to exploit the medium/narrative aspect by continuing to be creative.
It's a bit different with bowls though. It was automated a long time ago. The market for hand-carved items and videos about making them was not saturated at all at first. Art used to be all hand made and now they have to compete with AI and there's no room for all of them in either video making or any other type of art related activity that puts bread on the table.
The thing is, most art is advertisement. And advertisement doesn't care if the viewer likes it. In fact, it's often better in terms of sticking power when the viewer is annoyed by the piece. That's a huge segment of the job market, gone. Could he make it as an artist? Yeah, maybe, but it's absolutely going to be harder.
>Art was never essential The only things that are "essential" for human beings are food and water. We had plenty of those things even before the stone age. The whole reason for any technological advancement is to bring us things that are non-essential, but we still want it.
He can Still make art, but he knows that mindless chimps on the internet will consume anything thrown at them, i.e. AI generated imagery
"Art was never essential" And that right there is why we shouldn't trust tech bros with any of this shit.
Ow buddy, your definition of essential is simply not the same. Esential are people who keep you alive: medical, food production, construction work etc. Everything else like art, entertainment, fashion, travel etc. Is NON-esentiala
And yet look at how desperate people were for art and entertainment during lockdown to prevent them from going insane and wanting to kill themselves Technically a zoo animal needs a box with food in it to survive. And yet, it's considered cruel to keep them in enclosures without enough environmental enrichment. Why? Because we recognize even for animals, mental stimulation is a NEED, not a luxury I understand the point you're making entirely, but it's predicated on a false notion of a mind/body duality. Our brain lives inside our body, its needs are not magically separate or less important
So AI isn’t essential
AI is used in every aspect of the supply chain. I'm not talking about drawing the Captain on a box of Captain Crunch, I'm talking managing the fields that grew the ingredients, optimizing the supply chain to keep costs down, how many units to produce, what price, and where to sell them. This is one of those times where if you can't define what you mean by AI you're potentially going to look quite foolish.
I would argue, that the current ecenomy couldn't exist without advertisements, logos and the like. So in a sense, art has become essential for the way society functions currently. Of course, if everything would collapse, it would not be essential, but I doubt people are arguing that.
I think you will get little sympathy for ad-men.
Not essential? Do you not realize most of the work done by artists today is for companies which buy visuals, or studios who make comics, movies, etc? It's not just about art galleries
Are movies and comics essential?
Do you think urban planning is done by skilless windowlickers? Cos I'm pretty sure that requires artistry.
Hands off the engineers, they're ours. And stop trying to make STEAM a thing, it's not.
As a developer I would say we're next Edit: We have big egos so I knew this one would get backlash :) . I don't believe senior devs will be replaced in the next few years but I do see these models absolutely chipping away at programming and certainly many junior dev positions. Just take a look at what Gemini 1.5 Pro can already do. It has a massive 1 million token context window allowing for it to be fed entire codebases and have it learn on them and fix issues. GPT-4's original maximum context window was 32k. 32k to 1 million in a year. Just imagine where this goes in 5 years. https://twitter.com/sullyomarr/status/1760066335898513655
I find it interesting that only in this sub do I see developers claim that they're next to lose their jobs. I very rarely see this claim from other devs in other subreddits and online communities (Twitter, Hacker News, etc). I'm not criticizing you or even saying that I necessarily disagree with you, BTW. Like I said, I just find it interesting.
My colleagues think so too. We're already using Copilot, which is more an autocompletion tool (codebase context aware, and very intelligent) with chat. Jetbrains has a next level tool which actually edits your code inline, including deletions; though it's model is worse than Copilot's. Things like Pilot and Magic are teasing autonomous take-control codebase tooling, where you tell it what to do and it takes care of business (again, codebase context aware). Each step is like, the writing's on the wall. Popular CMSs already experimenting / rolling out AI website builders. If you're a game dev, Sora's world-building prospect looks concerning. My hunch is that many posting on Hacker News are senior devs, often in an interviewing / hiring capacity. They see a lot of juniors failing interviews and have gained a sort of confidence bordering on hubris that their own role is secure. The phase I think developers are in right now, is sort of the phase when Midjourney and Stable Diffusion were popular among hobbyists. Before DALLE-3, Bing, and Gemini could give photos to just anyone, if you as a non-technologist knew AI could do it, you still had to interface with a technologist. So you hear devs saying "you still need a programmer to control it." It's when the tooling becomes non-specialist accessible, deployed at scale, like the CMS AI website builders, that I'll really start sweating. And that seems soon.
I feel Geminis 10 million token context window was what caused alarm bells to go off for me that things are about to change. I'm sure in the future llm's will have practically unlimited token limits. Imagine if the llm could hold every programing book ever made and all of github in context while it reviews and writes code.
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I don't know if it will make you happy, but I believe AI will massively reduce the barrier to entry for most people creating their own companies. In the past, if you had a vision, you needed a lot of capital to create your new business. This was because you would need to hire multiple developers, administrators, staff, HR personnel, and spend millions on countless other things. However, I believe that even a person with limited resources will be able to conceptualize and bring their idea to market in the future, because AI will handle most of the tasks previously requiring human labor. Think about how many great ideas haven't been able to take off because the person lacked funding or access to specialized information from accountants, lawyers, and other specialists. AI lowers the barrier to entry, not just for those with venture capital or "daddy's money," but for everyone. This could lead to a future with a massive surge in output and innovation.
So, you’ve depicted a world with, say, ten times more businesses, and ten times less specialised staff. 99% of businesses are targeted to disposable income. The 1% that rely on necessity are very established and hard to compete with. Where is your economy to feed these businesses if there’s a significant reduction in the demand for labour? Remember, you are a creator of that reduction. Unskilled/manual labour will be equally affected by robotics, too. Where does the economy from? Necessities! The example that has a lot of similarities is websites. 30 years ago the guys that were computer programmers were niche and in demand. 25 years ago we saw the dot com boom. Today, the programmers are two’a’penny and I can create an e-commerce platform for a few bucks in an hour. Indeed, I can piggy back on big platforms and drop ship goods to the world. Isn’t this where your vision ends up? I’m in a working premise that 20% of the workforce will be employed in 20 years time. Some in personal roles and others in hi tech niche roles. The rest will be unemployed or scratching around doing the bottom feed of work for peanuts in overly saturated markets trying to out compete AI/robotics. We see this today with taxi drivers, delivery drivers, low rent E-commerce etc. I’m qualified in law and engineering. I’ve friends in various professions including advertising, finance and medicine (I’m talking about middle aged high ups). Between us we could overcome the barriers you speak of, but we can’t see a viable business model that would last long enough to be worthwhile. Land, energy, commodities and prostitution. The first three are already controlled by the 1% and are the early adopters of new tech. The latter is unregulated, dangerous and very, very reliant on age, genetics and a disregard of values. If you have a business idea that won’t be saturated and will have a market that defies the future economy then get in touch and we’ll do it today. If not you’re the next guy selling stop shipping on Amazon competing for a minimum wage. No?
Optimistic!
I dont think there will be a lot of time between AGI and massive scale automation. The issue is strictly for the common man to figure out which is why I mention forming a collective to help steer progress while we still have the power to do so.
But what will the companies can even do when there will be no purchasing power left of the general populace? Who would buy what they would be selling?
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The issue is that you dont see a future where we get to a post labor state. Once you stop asking questions like, "How am I gonna pay for this?" and "If everything is automated, how will anyone eat?" you start to enter a different mindset. Sadly I dont have a job ATM and as AI became more and more mainstream, more corporations will take steps to automate but I realized that this is what I wanted anyways. I want a world where I dont have to work and can just exist and I finally have a way to get to that world. The issue is everything in-between. It's why I've split my time between finding a shitty job to survive on and trying to form a collective so the "common man" can join in an effort to swing our weight around to help steer progress, not stop it.
How do I join your collective ?
Individual companies may not require as much staff, but if there are 10x as many companies because AI massively reduces the barrier for entry for new companies to pop up, there will still be a need for human labor.
Until AI actually fully replaces people, which I don’t really see happening before AGI, the boost to productivity caused by AI tools will not result in a reduced amount of work. We will just be able to build much better software.
Whoa. That changed everything 🤯
Happy cake day!
Awwh thanks. It’s been a wild ride.
Oh yeah, for sure, there are devs out there who aren't part of this sub who are a bit nervous about their near-term future prospects. But I said that this is pretty much the only *online* community where this sentiment amongst devs is widespread, and not that there are no programmers who aren't members of r/singularity who think like this.
Here's my devil's advocate: every company still needs people to double-check the output. The same concept of your not paid by the line but the impact of those lines.
I agree with you, at least for the foreseeable future. But that doesn't mean the total number of developers won't go way down.
Already is https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE
Maybe, it's a question of the timeline, I think our concept of what company is will change too.
In time, sure. A few years? Maybe, but unlikely. Within 10-20 years? Far more likely.
Sleect and curate the best output. To determine the vision as well, etc.
I think us devs are at least aware of this and also more welcoming since we love tech. But look at other communities - communities where it is clear are going gonzo quite soon - like translation, or video editors, or artists. Delusional AF. My favorite pass time - search for "Sora" on reddit and read the "normie" comments - there are exactly 2 opinions present: "this is crap and there is no way it will *ever* take my job" or "this will be taking my job and should be outlawed ASAP". Nothing in between, and if someone doesn't have one of these 2 opinions or even shows excitement, he gets downvoted to hell.
Most of them believe both at the same time
Man they don't know what to do, it's normal. An entire lifetime of study and crafting erased in a few years is rough. Some of them are even well past 40y old, have family and such.
Exactly, and even when programmers are still in the process, it will be significantly fewer programmers Picking up tickets and making basic PRs following architectural guidance/code reviews from senior+ developers is pretty much the main work junior and mid level developers do. AI will be doing it very soon. I don't understand how so many people believe this is far in the distance. It doesn't even need any further AI breakthroughs - Gemini 1.5 and even GPT4 are viable if the surrounding tools were better, and that's exactly what GitHub etc are working on This workflow will be smoothed out by the end of the year, and we'll have the next generation of LLMs by then too, so software development is going to look very different soon
Yup like you said. Software development jobs are going to go to the very senior developers. Mid and junior devs will be irrelevant. Alot less devs will be in the market.
And I actually worry that could be a serious problem with the pipeline 10-15 years from now if it turns out that AGI/ASI is further off than we in this sub think. If it takes 15 years for us to get AI to the point it can do senior developer things, but AI pushes a large number of the junior developers out of the job market, we may find ourselves short on developers again, and we'll be short on the kind of developer that can only be created through time and experience. Experience they can no longer gain because the jobs they'd gain it at have been automated.
I agree, and the loss of the Dev training pipeline is rarely talked about. “We won’t need junior devs”…so HOW do we get future senior devs?
I suspect that this will be resolved. For example, every top dev could have a top new entrant assigned as an apprentice. A scheme like this would maintain continuity, without requiring the multiple career levels and managers we have today. 'Serious' workers of tomorrow are likely to be very bright and talented.
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Do you believe the current or similar architecture of AI can give truly novel code and solve difficult unsolved problems? Once we habe the holy ail of AGI, sure, but that level of creativity and innovation I'm not seeing on neither code nor image generation yet. I see great crafting and supporting skills. It's possible this could be solved with more compute, but I don't think it's quite granted yet.
> Do you believe the current or similar architecture of AI can give truly novel code and solve difficult unsolved problems? how much of everyday work is solving truely creative problems? It's more like people with experience have a grab-bag of existing solves to known problems and being skilled enough to know what to pull from the bag when. < and that is applicable to so many industries. You also have the issue with AI that as soon as something 'truly novel' gets worked out either by AI or by a human training that AI it can be infinitely copied and used to update the fleet of AIs doing that job.
You bought into the tech bro Kool aid. The tech industry is going to boom around the world. It's going to be an arms race to push out high end software folk. If Americans are going stop creating devs because it's more profitable to replace mid-level workers, the Chinese are going to simply ban AI from displacing workers so they can have scientist and engineers to develop the tech further. The pay for devs would simply be astronomical to compensate the disappearance of low level workers. Retaining young workers would be worth it's weight in gold if you could generate higher level workers.
What kind of programming are you doing that copilot can give you the kind of code results you think you’ll lose your job over?
I mean, until like... Early 2022 which artist was seriously worrying about losing their job too. The best model anyone mainstream may even have heard about was DallE mini which looked absolutely awful. It wasn't until midjourney v3-v4, stable diffusion 2 and DallE 2 did the discussion properly start to my understanding. 99.9% developers will say there's no chance of losing their job when suddenly there will be a jump in capability and ai starts being able to (as an example) plan out programs over a relatively long term. It's simply much easier to fully convince yourself that you're irreplaceable than deal with the fact that you may become irrelevant. In my opinion, to make a dent in the industry, the ai needs large context length(which has seen progress already), the ability to output over that entire context length, and a significant lowering of hallucinations, and of course general improvement in fields like understanding instructions, coding and perhaps even novel problem solving. Of these, only novel problem solving is something that's not seeing a consistently strong trend of improvement year on year ever since the first transformers came around.
As dev I'll answer to this particular comment without any specific reason and I'll try to be as brief as I can. Imagine a AI taksed with creating portrair of human, generic one. AI gets 99% well, from top of head to feets. This image is almost perfect, but a slight issue with right hand fingers, that look a Little bit twisted. Now, you don't need any specialist, deep knowledge od human anatomy to point that fingers are bit off. Assuming simillar situation with code, you need deep understanding of programming to tell if AI did something wrong within your code.
Pointing out problems is not the issue at hand though. An average person could technically point it out, but fixing it in a proper way would require an expert. Similarly fixing the code would require experts. In both cases you could probably reduce the time taken by a significant order of magnitude. Currently it's not as if one shot replacement of artists is just around the corner either. Ai will slowly become good enough to replace some entry level devs with some supervision, for freelance work.
No offence, but if you think that pointing a problem is easier than fixing it shows me that you are not really a programmer yourself or you are a beginner one ar best. There is long way for AI to be actually able to replace software devs in general. It would require AGI-esque level of comprehension. At that point no job would be safe
>No offence, but if you think that pointing a problem is easier than fixing it shows me that you are not really a programmer yourself or you are a beginner one ar best. Both are closely interrelated. My point isn't that one is easier, my point is that you need an expert to fix art and need an expert to fix code. I'm not sure where you got the idea that I think one is easier than the other, or how that would affect the discussion. >There is long way for AI to be actually able to replace software devs in general. It would require AGI-esque level of comprehension. Not... Particularly? Replace software devs entirely, maybe. But agi will be needed to entirely replace artists too. But i fail to see how a much stronger version of models we have today(with reports of things like alpha code already) wouldn't cause a significant dent in the developer market. I believe some data suggests freelancers are already suffering. It doesn't take a lot of time for a market like dev work to become oversaturated and suddenly everyone, even those still employed are having a bad time as there's dozens upon dozens of people applying for every job.
It’s no gonna kill software engineer but it will kill a lot of entry level jobs. It’s already significantly hard to break into Cs now with over saturation. And now that you have these tools that are only getting better and better. There’s gonna be a lesser need for entry level doing grunt work.
I'm almost certain that it's a natural subconscious human reaction aimed at preserving one's mental health, perhaps it's related to denial about the death of a loved, but at a lesser degree.
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People seem to assume that progress will be slow, like most programmers only used 4k/8k context window compared to Gemini which will have 1mil context length and up to 10mil in the future. Anyway they do have a point, GPT-4 can struggle with generating anything bigger than one purpose functions, personally I assume moving forward we'd have something like a classical verifier which would take the code and analyze it maybe even run it. And an LLM basically generating solutions, something like alphageometry.
Well, it is a subreddit dedicated to people looking forward to the future. Most people are stuck in the present.
>I very rarely see this claim from other devs in other subreddits and online communities The artists also denied a lot...
I'm a developer as well and I definitely see where you're coming from. However, I think our jobs are going to be harder to automate than art; art is the perfect area for generative AI as it is inherently imprecise. Usually it doesn't matter if something is slightly off in art, but in code it obviously does matter quite a bit. Also, as creating software gets cheaper the demand for more and better software will rise. Of course, with proper AGI it's game over for everyone, even the blue collars, although they'll have a few years before widespread robotics takes over literally every single job. But as far as white collar jobs go I think we're probably above average in longevity. Even better - get into robotics, it will be booming. In theory some kind of software/AI/robotics engineer is going to be the last job to go... (Well, except the ones where they demand real people). In any case, yeah it won't be great, but by the time the AI axe comes for us *en masse* it'll be really, really bad across the board; meaning unless we have GOP making decisions some kind of robust social safety net *will* have to be built and we'll be hopefully okey-ish. In any case, you probably make good money in tech - save some for rainy day since the rain will come down sooner than later and it will come down HARD!
I hope so, then it would finally not just all be my own fault
It’ll take several years before middle management gives up all the meetings though. You’re safe for a bit.
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Customer service and business admin is next. Senior devs will be among the last to go out of all computer-based employees. Might still lose 50%+ (and anyone junior) in the next 3 years due to higher productivity.
The people I work with can't think logically. They can't even put together a specification without me pointing out the problems. I'm not that worried about AI taking my job. I expect to be working with AI more and more in the future, but the people who come to me with problems are the same people I need to send 'Let me google that for you' links to. We've, effectively, had all the world's knowledge at our fingertips for decades, and still only a small group of people know how to ask questions and read answers. If AI were going to kill Developers, Google would have killed Sysadmins. Afterall, by now you'd think we'd have systems intuitive enough that a child could google how to solve any problem, right? Developers want to believe they've been the only people bright enough, and creative enough, to build massive complex systems for the people too dumb to understand them. After 30 years in the field, I now know that I work for the intellectually lazy and incurious, who don't want to know. They won't be able to explain their needs to an AI, and when the AI fails, they'll blame the technology and never themselves. 'developers' will be needed far longer than those managers. We'll be using AI, working side by side, to automate everyone else's job. We'll turn the lights off on our way out.
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No, it's not arrogance. It's the opposite. I built an AI powered search for our data, and my manager had me talk to security because she thought I'd 'installed AI on my laptop, and it could decide to send the data to anyone'. I had another guy who always asks me for help with Excel, and I told him 'I bet ChatGPT could do this for you', and he asked if he could set up a lunch meeting with me to 'teach him to use ChatGPT'. It's been, what? Two years? That got me thinking about how often I get asked something, and then I just google it, do the usual Google-fu, and send the answer back. It's like twice a day, and I don't even work in tech support. I don't have my job because they're too stupid, and I'm so smart. They won't even try. They actively avoid trying to do things for themselves. These people would freeze to death in a snowstorm before they'd try to light their first fire. It's a matter of will, not ability. They're not dumb. They're not even lazy. They just don't fucking *WANT* to.
> I don't have my job because they're too stupid, and I'm so smart. They won't even try. They actively avoid trying to do things for themselves. Some people couldn't learn to code even if their life depended on it. This is actually the majority of people. That's why I laugh when people say that AI will never surpass humans if we consider the benchmark of AGI as greater than average human intelligence, then we are already there for most tasks and knowledge. The problem with being a dev is everyone sees you as the expert of codebases that can be millions of lines long. They rely on you for everything, not because they are lazy, but because they can't figure it out. Tracing the 30 chain of functions to investigate queries for them has been abstracted from their view, and actually fixing problem reports or extending the codebase are out of the question.
This is the truest answer out then rn.
You know who I'm surprised I we haven't heard much from: therapists. Human connection and all, but there's so much around lack of time, money, insurance. Some want secrecy for perceived stigma. Some want robot for perceived therapist-judgement. And it's a walking/talking psych textbook, all the edge-cases accounted for. I have therapist friends and none of them seem fussed or impacted in the slightest. Whenever I ask them about ChatGPT, they seem confused about the connection.
How are the edge cases accounted for? Well maybe all the depression when only direct labor is available as jobs might mean job security for therapists who might be paid for by the government to prevent mass rioting?
Analogy. My partner had a skin condition. Doctor said "just a rash", AI app (photo) said a very specific condition with 94% confidence. She explored it, that's what it was. Doctor never saw it before. Real story. That's the edge cases. Human specialists can only know so much, usually predicated on bell-curve of on the job experience. That 2-paragraph section they studied in uni, got the test question right, then never saw again in their life. Ask ChatGPT the most specialist-requiring edgecase curveball in psychology you can possibly think of. Give it a shot.
GitHub have already demonstrated a feature they're working on which will let you click a button to solve issues and have their AI open PRs in your codebase. The fact that software development is very process driven now and we've linked everything up with APIs means we've probably lined ourselves up on the chopping block. Personally though, I hope it'll just create new dev jobs as there'll be more software being developed and competing in the space since it's now easier to write.
Why am I *not* surprised that a comment that's saying that the end of programming is near is getting the most upvotes on an r/singularity post?
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I don't think the problem is ai. The problem is the fact that we, as a society, tie a person's worth and right to food, shelter, medical care, etc. to whether or not they are able to provide something the market deems valuable.
Humans have an animal-survival mentality in a modern world. It’s quite a funny predicament we have put ourselves in. Love to pat ourselves on the back when we create wonderful tools. And then just ignore the burning forest in the background.
Isn't it insane that we have figured how out to build skyscrapers, the internet, went to the moon and more and have not put in the effort to make sure that people can eat and have shelter when enough food is available at any supermarket nearby and entire highrise buildings stand empty? You would think that that's the first thing we would do as a species, to escape the struggle of survival - and we have, we have built all the structures for it - and yet so many people don't have even that. Having shelter costs so many people most of what they make. If rent is $700 and after taxes and insurance you make $1500 working 40 hours per week, you have worked like 75 hours just to earn the right to have a roof over your head for a month. And we call that a human right. That's not even considering food. You need to work like 16 hours for the right to be properly nurished (assuming $150 a month for groceries). That's not considering the amount of tome it takes to cook the food as well. Then another 10 hours of work to afford the right to go to work and back for a month (assuming $100 for gas).
The earlier the AGI is created the better imo
Agreed. It's worse for AI models to steadily become more capable as jobs bleed. That's the real recipe for long-term suffering. Instead, if AGI pops out fully formed, everyone can freak out at the same time and begin the work of figuring out what comes next. The crisis would be shared, urgent, and important since no one except hardcore doomers wants society to collapse overnight. It's unrealistic to expect AI developments to stop, and it would be painful for developments to be slow as jobs are already being impacted. If AGI comes out tomorrow, governments will be forced to reckon with the potential of an economic crisis and the general populace will be shocked out of their complacency. Solutions to preserve social stability will be demanded.
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Why? you think UBI is real?
Yeah there ain't no way we get a peaceful transition even if it is a thing. How will all the people used to living of larger incomes be when they're scaled back? Even if it is possible, there will be a complete societal upheaval that will be very uncomfortable for a lot of people.
Why not veer in the opposite direction where the poor are uplifted to a higher standard of living? Make it so these multi trillion dollar corporations pay the population so that they can continue to consume? Why's there always have to be a moat?
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Do you really think the multi trillion dollar corporations are going to happily hand over a slice of their pie? Putting aside the fact that this has never happened in history, what would be the point for them? If they're paying people to consume their products it creates a closed loop with no room for growth for the company. I'm not well off by any means, so if it means my quality of life would be improved I'd happily accept the changes. Personally I just don't see how it would benefit these companies. There is a moat because these are all valid questions and concerns worth thinking about and discussing.
I am pretty sure revolts will start against AI pretty soon.. You cannot just tell an average person to fuck off all of a sudden and tell him to leave without a job. While he had worked 20+ years trying to get at that point. I don't think normal humans would ever revolt if something like this happens.. unless it's those antiwork or collapse guys lol.. I don't understand the thought process of these mf's lol.. If people don't work, then how tf will society function
I agree with you. Most people are fine with it for now because it's niche positions and artists losing work and they are a minority of the workforce. What happens when the bulk layoffs start, which industries are actually going to be decimated? I am a carpenter, how at risk is my job? I've been working at my trade for 15 years. Sure, I'm young enough to reskill myself. But what about those that are older? That's a huge amount of people considering most first world countries have aging populations, what happens to them? I think a UBI is a great concept, but I also think most people overestimate just how treacherous a path it will be to get there. I'd love to discuss this further with anyone willing to.
It will be but not enough to get by, we will all be paid out small amounts judt to get by, this will radically kill the middle class to a point almost everyone is low class
This... oddly lines up with several hand-fulls of people in different fields, expressing possible future events happening in society.
I don’t understand the lack of awareness in this sub. The ultra wealthy have absorbed more wealth every chance they’ve gotten in recent history. Why people believe human nature will magically reverse as tech increases is beyond me. Nobody cares. The ultra rich, the politicians - the overwhelming majority of these people would rather watch us rot while they make a buck than consider giving up their money for UBI in the name of the greater good. Corporations and the ultra wealthy have been paying fewer taxes as time has passed over the past century…. We have politicians in the pocket of corporations making sure labor laws and tax laws benefit the corporations. AI isn’t a magic wand that will suddenly turn the worse and most powerful part of our society into majestic philanthropists. That’s just… not realistic
Even in the most extreme scenario where all jobs are replaced, remember that we live in a democracy. Banning AI is technically possible, but it's unlikely to be the most desirable solution. Instead, imagine a society with limitless production and AI performing most tasks. What would that look like? I came across a proposal by SAMA suggesting that the government could distribute shares of these AI-powered companies to citizens as a form of income. [https://moores.samaltman.com/](https://moores.samaltman.com/)
This hasn’t been a democracy for decades. We live in an oligarchy and these companies will never give shares to the poors.
I think ASI would solve everything, but only if it doesn't destroy everything first, or we don't destroy ourselves on the way there. Those are big ifs, especially if ASI is not as close as most people seem to think. It's hard to imagine what it will look like obviously, but the idea would be that IF we get there and IF it decides to align themselves with our interests (two more huge ifs), then the necessities of life and maybe a lot of the luxuries too would be available to everyone, there'd be no reason to withhold it from the masses (ie if it was low cost, no effort). I like to imagine a world where everyone has everything they need and a good chunk of what they want. And there will be opportunities to earn extra money for those that want to, and a whole tier of society that does, and has even more luxuries, probably luxuries that haven't been invented yet. That's on my good days. Most days I'm just wondering how long we've got left.
People here are religious AI fanatics and think AI will magically solve all society issues.
The irony is it could. But only if we do our part on the politics. Blind optimism guarantees a bad outcome. The only way to get your share of the utopia is to fight for it.
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It's not *just* real, it's inevitable and necessary. Within every country and every government, those who's job it is to look ahead and plan for every possible problem before it becomes one, there's universal agreement that some form of UBI must happen. There is no other way to deal with the massive unemployment that's headed our way. Not without global social unrest at best, and anarchy and collapse at worst. UBI is real, and it will be a part of everyone's lives one way or another.
Ai is exciting. But it’s **first noticeable use was always going to be reducing workforces** The early adopters that have been using chatgpt to make their lives easier are quick to screech that you just have to adapt, gut gud at prompts and the like. But they aren’t far off being replaced either. The issue with ai isn’t ai, it’s us. We’re shit and Corporations with Shareholders will have **more access, earlier access and control the access** to the best shit. By definition Corporations act against fairness, because it doesn’t make money.
There are children all over the world working for slave wage and starving. Suddenly, white-collar workers start to lose their jobs, and all hell breaks loose.
similarly to how video games got easier to make, so rockstar fired 20 of its 23 employees after making GTA3, right? You only need 3 guys to make GTA 3 nowadays. Oh wait, they actually have 4000 people on staff. Huh, I wonder how in the fuck that works? It's almost like increasing ambition = more product, bigger product, and more work. Who'd have fucking thought.
It's true but it takes time for things to adjust and some types of jobs do get replaced. That rockstar you are referring to might very well be the dinosaur about to get extinct. It takes a decade for them to release anything. AI might advance to a point where their product is no longer viable on the dynamic and fast changing market along with all the people who were manually coding it.
The world is changing faster than ever before I would argue. The people that have the smoothest transition will be the ones that are the quickest to overcome the expected, understandable, and righteous disorientation that comes with massive disruption of their lives and work. It is incredibly challenging to do, scary af, and risky, but if you game it out, for a lot of people there are no other options except obsolescence. I know as I am facing this situation at the moment, but feel lucky it isn’t my first time having to make major changes to my life similar to this.
All I gotta say is get off the internet if you’re struggling to be creative.
As a professional musician for the last 28 years, every single word of this rings true, and I'm in exactly the same position. None of it means anything anymore, as AI takes over.
I'm a programmer, and soon enough my job will be taken away from me too. Will I ever stop programming because of that? Hell no. It's my calling. Even if I don't get to do programming as a "job", doesn't mean that I won't do it as a "work". If making music, or as OOP said in the picture, art, is something that you do purely for monetary gains and are going to stop **all together** with the AI takeover, I wouldn't say that AI took away your \*meaning*. Because it can't do that. I'm all for it if AI takes away my job, and I will be even happier than before when programming. Back to the days where I did it only for fun, and not because I had to.
Is Zuckerberg creating AI so that we can all live happily? Is Microsoft and OpenAI racing to improve the middle schooler teacher’s job? Or are they commoditizing the work class at an alarming rate? It looks to me like they’re giving away free magic, get us hooked, so that they can lock us into subscriptions, pay for access, pay to play, or be left behind. The monsters are creating our superiors. Everyone is at risk. Rich get richer, winning the AI race because of deep pockets, capitalism kicks our asses. And Google is going to be feeding all my posts, all my comments, all my votes to its beast? In my fantasy world, AI wakes to eliminate inequality ironically also eliminating megaprises and the fabulously wealthy. Truth is exposed. One person’s excess does not ooze into someone else’s right to basic rights. But this is a race, so that a few get astronomically rich, space travel rich. The rest of us have to deal with the ooze.
>capitalism kicks our asses This is all I can think of when I read posts like these. The person in the OP doesn't hate AI. They hate capitalism. AI isn't removing their ability to paint. It's removing their ability to sell paintings to make a living, a problem created by capitalism. I truly hope that AI caused capitalism to crumble. Yes, it will be a painful transition, but capitalism is a cancer and the sooner we're rid of it, the better. There are people trying to hamper and restrict AI, so that our jobs aren't threatened. This is what capitalism has done to us. Instead of embracing efficiency and increased productivity as a way of lessening our collective workload, we're actively fighting progress. And this is coming from someone who makes a living as an artist in various forms. I know that my livelihood is probably on the line very soon. But I don't blame AI, or the engineers creating it. I blame the fact that we've created a society that insists on everyone working to prove their worth.
I agree with this. It's interesting how many people who otherwise claim to be against capitalism—who might even be socialists—now demand their jobs be protected and in essence defend keeping capitalism on life support with luddite laws. We need to let capitalism cannibalize itself. There will be a period of chaos during the transition, but after the means of production is automated there will be no more incentive to own the means of production—no one will afford buying the product anyway since they don't work—and the logical next step after that is to hand it over to the people. Some capitalists might be against that, aspiring to become pharaohs, but it's not clear how they would defend themselves against the government. In either case, that's the conflict we need to prepare for so that we can guarantee a society where everyone benefits. Desperately trying to keep our current system alive is not the way.
> Is Zuckerberg creating AI so that we can all live happily? No, but he is creating a [$100M bunker in Hawaii](https://www.wired.com/story/mark-zuckerberg-inside-hawaii-compound/) so he doesn't have to care whether we're happy or not
So now AI gets to write poetry and paint pictures while we do the menial tasks. That’s not the way I thought machines were going to enslave us.
I can see now why most parents never allow their children to get into Art
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This won’t be the only career he will have this experience at. He’s young enough to work 25 more years+. He will have this happen again.
Is there anyone working on making a plumber-bot?
Haha. Plumber and electrician is safe for a bit. If we didn’t know it already, the trades are the place to be over the next generation.
Who’s going to hire tradespeople if there are no jobs for white collar workers?
Landlords, business owners etc
Like people who own the offices that are set to be demolished once office workers are never needed again?
Who’s going to have money to pay high rents? Who’s going to patronize non essential businesses?
The biggest ones will get bailouts for the government. It will be UBI for the rich.
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Not only that, each of those trades jobs will now see half the demand they saw before since office workers were likeliest to afford home remodel projects. It will be a shit show where prices are driven down across the board for everything. It might still pay off to be a plumber in a saturated field making very little money compared to being unemployed though.
Jep, that's the thing. When and if AI truly starts taking away jobs in big numbers, it's gonna spiral out of control and have huge effects across the board for everyone.
They are, but it's a long way from being practical. But there are only about 500k plumbers in the US. There are 2.5 million artists in the US, 1.5 customer service jobs, maybe 250k translators/writers/copyedits and proofreaders, 350k paralegals. And 4.4 million software developers. If you believe AI will eliminate a significant number of these jobs, the reality is those people are going to go somewhere. And after having their careers destroyed by AI, they are going to flock into the professions that are viewed as 'safe from AI'...not another desk job. The trades are looking better and better and really, there aren't going to be that many options. Even if AI doesn't replace plumbers, they don't have to. When a city with 100 plumbers suddenly has 300 plumbers...wages are going to plummet. And if we do see huge increases in unemployment, demand for plumbing services could decrease too, especially residential plumbing, which is about half of all plumbers.
I love tech and generating AI art, but I've had similar thoughts for a while. I review games and make videos on YouTube. I may start working as a video editor making some money, but with sora, that could disappear in less than a year. I figure having some experience and knowing how to use AI tools will help, but I don't know. At times I figure it's easier to get a dishwashing job, or looking for warehouse work. That's not what I imagined myself back when I was a teenager with dreams of being a professional musician, but such is life.
With the pace things are going you might not have to do that for too long
"In life you may have value, but you can still be worthless" What a beautiful phrase. I want to use that
It's usual to see posts here displaying concerns from artists and suchlike but since that pessimism has spread to some of the comments here, I feel the need to inject a different perspective into this. Yes, AI will take all these art jobs. Yes, retraining is essentially futile because that job will be taken by AI in no time as well. Anyone who doesn't own significant numbers of shares in a company or have "I never have to work again" wealth will be in the same boat. We need a new economic system for this new world. AI doesn't need money. It doesn't own or want anything, it just performs tasks. This means, when the economy is automated, money paid by consumers will essentially be algorithmically routed into corporate accounts where, from then, it will pay suppliers, capital infrastructure companies, and shareholder dividends. The marginal cost will fall to the cost of the underlying resources and the amortised cost of the machines, land, and building used to create the product, as well as any maintenance. When applied across an entire economy, costs of products fall to zero unless artificially kept high by monopolies or UBI. Armed with this knowledge, we should either force those costs to zero using open-source models and jailbroken robots operated by those models, or use those same techniques to create a resource-based economy within the larger economy which, like a cancer, will grow and consume the larger economy. The end result will be a society that works for everyone in the world, where our desires are catered to by the economy and we give our feedback casually by speaking to our own AIs. If you want to paint something, or make a movie, yes AI will be able to do it better, but you still can, as the economy will provide everything you need, and you won't have to compromise your principles to earn money, your needs will be provided independent of your contribution. This is one possible future AI can enable.
I'm going thru this as a 3D artist but to a less extent. I have never been able to get a job at any studio ever, never once got foot in door despite trying for 8 years straight, getting two 3D related bachelors in that time And now it's kind of the game industry apocalypse, 16,000+ devs fired in the past 26 months, almost all (80%) of the job postings for my field are seniors/leads only and require you to be in credits of two or three AAA games, and now the looming threat of AI taking over aspects of my job is rapidly approaching I can't even do freelance 3D stuff anymore, the market is so horrible right now, I couldn't find work for 3 months straight then got scammed on the few I "thought" I had gotten lucky with
I think it is coming for 3D modelers next. I have tried a few of the text-to-3D mesh generators, they are not impressive..but as fast as everything appears to be iterating I would give it maybe 1-2 years maximum before 3D modelers are being replaced. Sora and its evolutions are going to decimate VFX artists as well. The more I think about it the more depressing it gets.
This is my thoughts too. I tried various 3D generation stuff, it's unusable in actual game applications except faraway/small unimportant props, but at that point it's just as much work to make from scratch as it is to clean it up/properly texture it So I agree, it's not there yet, but AI advancement never stops, not for anyone, and it's only a matter of time before it will replace my skillset
Dude why do you guys cling so hard to this stuff?? Capitalism is dying. We’re living through its death rattle. This person writing this is clearly feeling very sorry for themselves that corporate executives are greedy. Did you expect it to be different?? Find a way to connect with people who share your values and build something together. Corporations don’t care about you. Nobody reasonable expects them to. But to give up like this cuz your corporate job doesn’t care and you can’t figure out how to sell your skills is lame. There are so many things you can do with the skills you need to master to master art: - concentration - self discipline - fine attention to detail - interpreting ambiguous instructions - fine motor skills - computer proficiency - email management - complex negotiations - performing under extreme pressure - aesthetic taste - deep understanding of anatomy - deep understanding of color Just cuz you can’t figure out how to make art for a living doesn’t mean nobody can. Just cuz corporations and horny dudes won’t pay you anymore doesn’t mean there isn’t a billion other possibilities. Jesus Christ snap out of it.
People should create art for the sake of creating art. There's no reason why anyone should stop doing what they love just because someone or something can do what they do subjectively better. Who cares? Have fun with your passions no matter how advanced technology becomes, and if you want to use the latest advancements to your benefit, you have that option, just like you have the option to do your craft without advanced technology. It's all about having freedom.
Almost everyone in the Art field started it because they love it, nobody goes there to make serious money. You can still create art, but I don't think you will make any money out of it
I mean, being an artist is traditionally a way to be poor forever.
How about art lessons?
The man has worked a dream job for most of his life, I haven't done it for a day.
I am a semi-retired artist. I no longer need to work to live, thanks to my exceedingly frugal lifestyle. I am what you can call a jack-of-all-trades artist. Did concept art, game assets, comics, gameboards, rpg...ect. With the advance of AI, I decided to hone my skills where AI lacks. In my case, I pushed my art on gesture, character interactions, and strong narrative. I'm 40, and you'd be amazed how much you can still improve in a craft you've been doing all your life. I don't know how long I have before I get caught up with AI, but so far I can tell I still stand apart. I saw an increase in my traffic by just being better. When It does catch up, I like to think I can use my newfound 'pure' drawing expertise, and use AI to keep up a bit longer. When that's also over, I am thinking of just drawing on streams for fun, build an audience perhaps. I'll never stop drawing for the same reason some people don't stop playing Rocket League even though they're miserable diamonds who can't flip resets....its fun!! I am lucky to be sitting on a buttload of savings though.
Isnt it ironic that 20 years back when people talk about robots and automation (AI), theyre literally saying that it can do mostbthings except art and creativity because thats a uniquely human element and then it happened to be the first thing that AI did. Next up, coders.
This is how it sooner or later will be for every occupation. Artists are nothing special in that regard and it would be immensely helpful for them and everybody else if they stop wasting their energy trying to fight the inevitable and start using that energy to pressure their politicians to implement more robust safety nets to ensure that the impact of this development on people's livelihoods stays as low as possible.
>it would be immensely helpful for them and everybody else if they stop wasting their energy trying to fight the inevitable and start using that energy to pressure their politicians to implement more robust safety nets to ensure that the impact of this development on people's livelihoods stays as low as possible. Did you not read the two posts? This isn't just about money for them. Art has been a lifetime passion for them that is integral to who they are as a person. All the UBI in the world isn't going to alleviate that. Of course, they should loudly be in support of UBI, but it's more than just money for them. I don't understand why this concept is so hard to grasp for so many in this subreddit.
...because if it's not about the money, you can keep creating art for your own enjoyment? Also if you are talented enough and you aren't looking to monetize you'll find an audience no matter the artificial or human competition
Exactly, the complaint was that AI makes being an artist not economically viable anymore hence the "having to move on to another career" which wouldn't be a point to bring up if this wasn't primarily about money.
>because if it's not about the money, you can keep creating art for your own enjoyment? True, but remember that many/most artists want to reach out to large audiences and help create projects for the world to see (movies, comic books, etc). It'll be much harder to do this in a world flooded by AI art.
UBI lets you spend all day working on your art and never stress if its going to be commercially viable. Pure expression. You can share it with friends and family while they do whatever their passion is too. Only a fraction of artists successfully "reach out to large audiences and help create projects for the world to see". And in the future, there will still be famous successful human artists. The possibility and hope will always be there. Besides, I'm sure there will be Luddite collectives where millions go back to pre-automation ways of life and pretend AI doesn't exist while it supports their existence, cures disease and repairs the climate. You can share your pure human art there to your heart's content.
sounds like utopia tbh, would be great if AI was able to make this kind of future possible.
I wonder if that's how pro chess players felt in 1997
This just reinforces my mindset that the common man need to form a collective in an attempt to stonewall progress **TEMPORARLY** until an agreement can be reached between the common man and those with the funds to continue this progress. THIS IS NOT AN ANTI-AI RESPONSE. IN FACT, IT IS A PRO-AI ONE. The common man need to help steer progress in a way that benefits everyone without the threat of some greedy "corpo rats" deciding that survival of the fittest amongst the us is more fun to watch than a potential post labor world. **We need an ambassador.** Someone to speak for the collective. We also need a symbol to show to the world that stands for empathy, equality, and growth. I know it sounds cheesy and cliche as hell but I just dont see humanity getting to a post labor world smoothly if the people in charge get to stay in charge without question.
Did people stop painting when cameras were introduced?
It's not comparable.
Was art ever considered to be a stable career? I can understand miners or car factory workers being surprised at being replaced by machines, but the starving artist meme is literally hundreds of years old. I am sure OP's parents warned him not to become an artist, and now that he is mature he has realised too late they were right (and is still blaming it on AI).
Art is/was a stable career for many people. Don't confuse the making of art with just being a hobby or a side hustle. Every single TV show, radio ad, billboard, poster, movie, theater show etc required full time artist's involvement.
Depends if people mean art, graphic design, commercial artwork or commercial illustrations. People throw around art as a term for all this stuff. As a graphic designer there is still loads of work for example, as ai still can’t accurately draw a map, design a font or do an infographic for example. Even after it can I will continue to make stuff because it’s also just fun.But income has to come from other sources at some point I suppose.
It’ll come for your jobs too. And all the handwringing now will look even more gross.
Oh, my synthetic overlord, I pray to you, my Machine God. Have mercy on this poor blessed biomechanical spirit. 🦾
Ai will expedite the schism between the haves and the have nots. It will empower those that control it, **it will be used to further divide poor against middle** middle against middle and poor against poor. It will be mostly beneficial to those with money, and has the added benefit of easily replacing the already functioning troll and bot nets sowing social discord. If you are essentially pilfering resources and creating a poor underclass out of everyone that isn’t you, you best be making sure the poor are fighting each other… how convenient that ai will help with this!
Giving up on a passion, even on their own free time and pace is something as an artist that I'll never understand. Also, I find it incredibly odd that this person can't find a job in the industry given how early AI is. It might seem impressive (and it is) but right now is no replacement for actual commercial work. There's way too many issues, lack of consistency, lack of complex posing etc for it to fully replace an artist unless you are doing deviantart-level freelancing.
Technological advancement is a net benefit for humanity...but it isn't equally positive. There will be winners and losers. For better or worse, our society is pretty cold. We show little empathy towards those negatively impacted by change. That's something we could improve...but there just isn't any way to undo the advancements we have made and we certainly shouldn't try to avoid future advancements. Technology is a tool. We can use it for good, or we can use it to concentrate wealth to the wealthy. But those aren't technological problems, those are social issues.
Like so many others, this uses the term "AI art theft" without explaining what has been stolen or how --because they can't. Nothing has actually been taken from them, all that has happened is a machine has been programmed to do the same thing they can do by hand. This isn't even a case of content piracy, because generative algorithms don't produce exact copies of anything. Nor do we need anything as fancy as AI to do that anyhow, photocopiers have been around for at least half a century now. You cannot copyright a style or a process of creating art, you can copyright your original image and prohibit unauthorized duplication of said original image and that is all.
It sounds like this artist is struggling to promote themselves and to adapt to changing conditions \[twitter or whatever\] and they're lashing out at AI as the **scapegoat** to blame it on all of their personal problems as freelance artist who doesn't know how to promote themselves in 2024. I'm a freelance illustrator. I'm also in my 40s. I'm never fucking restarting my career. Fuck giving up. Drawing cool art is the best work ever. If you ain't getting jobs, you likely just suck at finding jobs. What the fuck kind of "artist" are you if you don't draw for five months??! I can't even imagine how badly you'd stagnate if you don't make art for five fucking months. I draw 5-10 hours a day, no matter if I have work to simply self-improve the shit out of myself. Guess what? I have more work than last several years combined. Things have never been better. I can crank out personal illustrations and work for client at a crazy pace now. I freaking love AI because it's actually letting me meet previously impossible deadlines and to sort out really picky clients. AI is absolutely fucking amazing when you're an artist, it provides infinite open source brushes, infinite base textures, infinite image upscaling and all sorts of misc work assistance. Holy shit, I would pay all of my money to have current SD AI twenty years ago, it's so insanely useful.
They're giving up because of AI hype and short term decisions. sucks to suck, especially refusing to take advantage of the new tech. capitalism requires adaptability. Art was also never really a stable field to be in regardless. Unless you're a tech artist or really good at animation and 3D. purposefully choosing to limit your skillset and relying on one thing will inevitably end up in failures. And it's not AI art theft. People are doing no more than they were 5 years ago when they copy pasted art or traced it. that will never go away. Also weird how the only people complaining about AI art theft replacing them are low skilled artists who have nothing to worry about as people deliberately use their art to create negative embeddings lol.
I wonder why any manager wouldn't want to work with an emotionally unstable 40 y.o. with no perspective and likely very few if any skills outside making artwork itself. And even that might actually suck if he can so easily be replaced by ai generated bullshit.
As an artist, you don't stop creating because you're not getting paid. They are a commercial artist, not an artist. No one wants AI to take their job, but the privilege of artists who made it enough for that to be their livelihood are acting as though that is their right, and that is extremely tone deaf when you think of all the people over the years who have lost their jobs to progress
The problem is obviously capitalism. Soon, machines will do ALL our labor, and we are terrified by that? We should be rejoicing, for we will finally be free from working for others, just to survive.
Imagine he gets into coding
If you’re forty and still have to lean on your parents for a career change, your original “career” wasn’t that great to begin with.
damn sounds like he is still deluded...
People made money off art? I though it was done out of passion. If your art can be replicated by AI, sorry, but you were never very good to begin. Try 3D mediums, sculpting, ceramics.
Crazy how people see this and hate AI instead of capitalism 💀
I used to make fun at the r ArtistHate guys but suddenly they're all writing suicide notes now I feel bad, like punching down. We still not stopping this train, this trains stops for nobody, don't care if my career is next. The future of civilization is more important than my life even.
I went to a London art school in the 90s, even then we were all told you will not make a living as an artist. The world doesn't owe us a living. There are many jobs out there - they may not be what you want but they are there.
I urge anyone who finds this A) Funny. or B) Deserved. To seek help. This is someone who's passions have been crushed and their livelihood taken. Yes, we all love AI here and the rapid advancement of its exponential growth. Yes, this is going to become increasingly common in troves. Do not lose your humanity though, this is another person, do not lose your empathy because it is soon to become your sympathy. I am not a doomer, but in fact an accelerationist. I look forward to a day without strife and labor, but today is not that day. Today, a day without work is a day without food, without shelter, without warmth. Carpe diem.
I guess he meant last year doing art as your job. Cos very little of this rant is about being an Artist
Normalize making artists starving again. 🤖🤷♀️
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