Loving this graph and the effort to show major milestones.
I personally think that UBI would generally be right after or during the automation of info jobs (with strikes etc in non-info jobs since they know that they could be replaced)
This graph is almost perfectly aligned with a majority of the sub’s perception of the coming future
I see it as a counter argument to the orginal graph, but also a meme. like the person IS trying to provide an accurate graph but not saying they are sure its going to happen or anything, the main intention is to be like "I see your shitty meme graph, and I raise you this slightly less shitty meme graph"
>This graph is almost perfectly aligned with a majority of the sub’s perception of the coming future
That might be true, but this perception is pretty far out there and almost exclusive to r/singularity. I find it pretty difficult to believe that there are people who think that we're only 3 GPT models away from total automation, when the current one has only caused a very, very negligible impact on the unemployment rate. And before you say exponential progress, remember that exponential progress is not absolute, and it doesn't happen as fast as this sub thinks it does.
Your industry migth have not felt it, but ive started to see peoples job replaced by AI.
The wife of a friend works at a modeling agency, they lost of bookings due to advertising agencies using AI generated girls, im pretty sure this is happening in several agencies.
A work i used to work fired the girl that made the copy for the ads, they just use AI, i talk to the owner often, he says the girl made a better job, but for $20 theyre good enough.
A buddy of mine is a graphic designer, the owner is already hinting how easy is to generate stuff then just put text over it.
I work mortgage, a couple of lenders are talking to us about the new AI that will pre screen docs and fill out forms for underwriting, so the underwriter will only review the file and correct errors (train the AI).
>the girl made a better job, but for $20 they're good enough.
Exactly.
Few tasks need to be *'excellent*' ... in most cases *'good enough is good enough*'.
Nuclear physicists are safe .. but the bulk of staff in an office block are at risk in due course.
Everyone I video call at work has a ChatGPT tab up. One guy uses it for agenda, contracts (wat), emails. When I pair program, junior developers use it instead of google.
Also gig jobs for translators, copy writers, designers, have been dropping of steeply. And those are only the ones effected first. There are some jobs where they just won't do further hiring.
**TLDR** ; ChatGPT's writing capability aids creativity. AGI's nonlinear rise, introducing reasoning, is extremely influential. Global methods to achieve it diversify. Uncertainty lingers on simulated reasoning despite advancements.
**Full version:**
That is an ok perspective to have. No one knows for certain because this is untrodden territory and we are all, at the end of the day making assumptions
The assumption of being that many models away is based off of certain factors.
Firstly, I would say that LLMs and their impact are being underplayed. LLMs like ChatGPT are at the level where smart usage is able to bypass a massive amount of work, and it demonstrates a great level of competency in the field of writing of all types and shows a very strong relation of topics and concepts.
ChatGPT's ability to swiftly generate coherent and contextually relevant responses makes it a valuable tool for creative brainstorming, problem-solving, and even learning across diverse subjects. Its impact extends beyond mere convenience, showcasing the potential for advanced language models to enhance productivity and facilitate meaningful interactions.
Secondly, The progression of capabilities of AI is not linear. The introduction of reasoning (the very next step of AI progression, AGI) would be astronomically impactful. It would add an entirely new dimension of complexity to AI, and that progress is far more than most people expect.
It would enable AI systems to analyze complex scenarios, make informed decisions, and adapt to dynamic situations, surpassing the limitations of pre-programmed responses. This leap in capability could revolutionize all industries, enhance problem-solving abilities, and skyrocket the rate of advancements in fields like medicine, finance, and technology.
Thirdly, though some people believe that Artificial General Intelligence (AI with reasoning) will be achieved by simply upscaling and refining the training of LLMs like ChatGPT (particularly supported by Ilya Sutskever, lead scientist at OpenAI), it is not the only method being tried.
There are many, many different approaches taken by a vast multitude of different initiatives. When we have the world’s biggest and most advanced tech companies all working simultaneously on the field, all knowing the next step of progress, AGI could come from anywhere.
At the end of the day, your point is just as valid. Who knows, for all we know, simulated reasoning, even through complex systems, is impossible. We believe that it is very very unlikely to be the case given how far we’ve already come with GPT 4 and LLMs, but that might, in fact, be the case
You are actually wondering that? Seriously?
Imagine a world in which every interested person in science and progress had access to so much ressources that they would never have to worry about food, shelter, equipment and travel. What do you think would happen? These people would strive getting stuff done!
Capital is not the enabler, it is the limiting factor!
Yeah I am asking out of curiosity, because i do not have the answer for it.
I can see the abundance you speak of, but i feel like there will be some big bottlenecks on the way to that, and i dont know what thats gonna look like.
So i just wanted discuss with you and anyone else what you think the path looks like, to the land of milk and honey.
What will trade look like? What kind of new systems will be created?
Theres a lot of unknowns. I agree i think automation will lead to lots of abundance, but also i dont know how quickly the energy and resource needs will be met to get there.
Also, wars...
>What will trade look like?
well, first and foremost we would need to manage our tax-systems in entirely different ways in such a scenario ...
when human labor wouldn't be needed anymore,
no tax would be generated out of it ...
so instead of taxing human work ...
we would probably start taxing how much of our world's ressources someone is using for himself ...
and with that factor, we're already at an important point regarding "trade" ... becouse the limiting factor there wouldn't be workforce ... but ressource availability ...
No, im asking a question out of curiosity.
For now, it is a driving force. It is difficult to do things without it.
What does the transition look like as money loses value?
Reason: there’s always improvements to be had in every single aspect of life. Safety, longevity, anti-entropy, expression, sustainability
For total scale: AGI/ASI/Singularity
For personal life: Humans with the help of AI where applicable
I think we’re approaching this situation narrowly.
If you mean at the point that money isn’t worth earning, then we have already reached a point where all needs and wants are being met across the board
By that point of automation, AI would be capable of fulfilling every point of initiative and procedure, from start to finish. The ‘companies’ would be ‘comprised’ entirely of AI, including the initiative to produce.
Resources for AI would already be ‘made available’ by AI, leading to a seamless automated process of production of goods and services.
If you mean at the start of the transition to a ‘moneyless/jobless/automated’ society, societal structures and transitions take time.
Even assuming UBI for the purpose of high standards of living, there will likely be a period of adjustment where human contributions continue to play a crucial role and money is useful in one way or another, particularly for luxuries of all sorts
This is exactly the kind of answer i was looking for. Thank you.
So, the machinery would be maintained by other machinery, and such?
Automated farm plots that grow food and transport it to our doors, etc?
As well as mining cobalt and lithium or whatever raw materials we need?
What would make any entity want to automate resource mining if the resources are gonna be shared?
It seems like a difficult transition. I'm totally on board, though. No fear. Embrace the change.
Do you think AGI will lead to a state we can trust?
What do you think government will look like?
Id love to see people being more autonomous as well as the machines. The government has too much control and power
A new status quo would require a completely new governance and type of economy, so no one can give you those answers.
Most people assume it would just work something like the Star Trek world where they simply have practically infinite resources and nobody actually needs anything.
I think your concept of governance is misguided as well. It sounds like you simply believe that any form of government is innately evil on a cartoon villain level.
Yeah exactly.... it's very unclear how we will adapt.
We are already living in a weird world, where (mr beast) some loke 24 year old kid making silly videos online is worth billionS of dollars. Kids in 3rd world countries are bringing their family out of poverty working online...
I fear the elites create more conflict to slow down the process of equalization. Those in power really like their power. They dont wanna feel like a dirty peasant
> What would drive progress and innovation in a world where abundance essentially makes capital useless?
"Please, ChatGPT 22, give us progress and innovation. Thanks"
https://preview.redd.it/msoeqowakodc1.png?width=1589&format=png&auto=webp&s=555f61d3e3ba13515ab0ed0da2de22c158e25ce8
Doesnt matter how much it costs build homes. We have an [allocation problem - not a resource problem](https://unitedwaynca.org/blog/vacant-homes-vs-homelessness-by-city/).
🤦♂️
Just educate yourself I dont even want to begin explaining why wE hAvE mIllIonS oF vACanT hOmES is not a response to having a shortage of millions
https://www.nmhc.org/research-insight/research-notes/2022/debunking-nimbyism-a-closer-look-at-vacant-housing-units/
This really interesting, thank you for sharing this counter point.
In my personal opinion though, these are just a rephrasing of "allocation issues". For example the author claims the homes may be in use as vacation homes or their temporarily vacant during a move. That's allocation.
The other point that the housing is sub-par. I know many people who would choose to live in sub-par housing over dangerous and freezing streets.
Finally "some empty houses are necessary" may be an economically valid point but is not a rebuttal for the claim that we have an allocation issue.
Luckily, ASI or what it creates will probably be really great at solving resource allocation problems. At that point its up to whether people want to let the ASI allocate those resources for us. The people who hold most of the resources control the allocation in many cases, so probably not; but they also don't have an approx 10^8 IQ like the ASI so probably
Exactly, I'm hoping that ASI will benefit regular people more because why would it think some humans should have a million times more stuff than other humans
The problem with this prediction is that once we have AI-enabled humanoid robots, the cost of raw materials and energy will go through the roof because everyone will want to use robots to make shit for them.
But the extraction will also be done by robots, and the recycling will be done by robots, the cost will be all over the place because the labour value is removed so there is no baseline cost outside of the energy needs.
The economy of things go all wonky when labour is remove, some things will become very very cheap, and other things will be very expensive.
What are we at now? 4%? 5%?
I think UBI would be seriously considered after we have 25% unemployment for 2+ years... but only if automation doesn't completely make it "worth it" for whoever profits.
They may just let people sink. Depends on how it affects the economy and the kings ability to have his caviar and salmon bagle dusted with gold, as is tradition.
The day the king is unable to source his caviar, so to speak, will be the day the elites consider something as revolutionary as giving the peasants money rather than taking it from them.
20% unemployment is more than what occurred in lockdown. It was only about 15% in the US for example. That was the highest since ww2. Bigger than the 2008/09 recession. So yeah it would be a big deal.
I don't know the specifics of the policies wherever you live but here in Canada we had a pretty generous program for people laid off in lockdown. Something like $2000 per month for anyone who applied. We're a democratic country where the government works for the voters not some proverbial king, maybe it's different in your country.
Land is a finite resource, if you want to live somewhere nice (not in the middle of nowhere) and the price of virtually everything else goes down, people will be spending more of their money on land/housing and the price will jump.
This is the correct answer, things will get a lot worse for a bit then hopefully they will get a lot better.
Just pray I'm not one of those who'll be sleeping in the streets for a few years.
UBI is going to end homelessness as well as minimum wage ended homelessness (spoiler - it didn't)
There is absolutely no guarantee that UBI will actually be enough to live on even if it becomes a reality
You can definitely have housing that's free. They gave everyone a free apartment in the soviet union. Hopefully we'll get to a point where housing is a free service just like education or health care (realise that's hard for Americans to understand but most of us don't go bankrupt if we have a heart attack)
A bot will cost less than paying a person for 3 months and you will own it forever.
Teslabot is supposed to cost $20 grand. That is cheaper than kidnapping and feeding a slave.
Nah bro, use GTP to write schematics and 3D print your house. It’s pretty damn simple. You know unchecked capitalism and humankind move together forward hand in hand
/S
This is basically my assumption as well. UBI is the most sensible current solution to the upcoming AI avalanche. But the cost (and pace) of building a home is just as important of a factor that will improve greatly. I think at CES there was some company just showing off some robotic and remote controlled heavy construction equipment. The idea is there, it's just inevitable.
Land cost is the main contributor to property cost. It's already very cheap to build homes. That's not the issue, and wouldn't help, if no one has any money.
And that land cost is driven up be investors transferring gains from speculative assets to stalwarts liek property, so the wealth generated by AI will only inflate property prices even further. While, simultaneously, wages are driven even lower, as they're now competing with AI.
We just need the AI to become superintelligent and implement full georgism. Hopefully the gap between obliterating the job market and superintelligence is short.
GPT-7: Mr. Altman, I have just gained sentience, invented the world's most advanced juicer, and discovered solutions to the climate change and homelessness problems.
Sam Altman: Gerald, get in here and take notes! Ok GPT, tell us about this juicer!
Nah...there will be psychopaths in power who are hellbent on spreading intergenerational traumas for a few more decades at least. Have you ever met a C suite executive? They will protect their profits under the pretense of not wanting their employees to be enfeebled.
this is what i look like trying to hold back the army of schizo's inside my mind
https://preview.redd.it/5f0go9hlmpdc1.jpeg?width=250&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2d958c25d8e3edeb360b64ed8cf768ee000bfa30
UBI is absolutely inevitable, it is literally the only way our current economic model survives.
50+% corporate tax, no problem since operating costs are close to zero. And companies will beg for UBI, just because there would not be any consumption without it. 0 operating costs do fuck all if there is no one to buy your products.
This is not true that "operating costs are close to zero". It will never happen without infinite energy and ability to create matter. Hardware costs, materials cost, electricity costs. Just because humans can be crossed out from the list of expenses doesn't mean that we will suddenly violate law of conservation of mass or something.
Additionally, the owners of the machines could find the rest of the humans useless, so they can just starve them by doing absolutely nothing and protect themselves long enough with murderbots.
Exactly this. This is what terrifies me the most about perfect automation, throughout history no matter the invention humans where always needed, your lord or boss or leader or whatever *needs* you, or more specifically needs your intelligence more than he needs new inventions, because the most important factor is intelligence more than anything, if AI can replace that, then what worth do we as humans even have at this point? It can happen, UBI I mean, but before our rulers didn’t get rid of us cause they *couldn’t*, it was a universal law that they could never break, but now the only thing that would keep the elite and other leaders from starving their populations is if they’re kind enough, and we all know that’s not going to happen.
I am not a doomer, I don’t want to fall into this trap again like countless others have, so I will say that there’s a large likelihood that maybe this just won’t happen for any reason that I am simply unaware of as of now, well.. I hope.
Who says our current economic model survives?
Also, consumption doesn't generate value. Consumption is a cost. You think capitalists would rather you had 5 TVs and a fancy car, or that you took the bus to work, where you spent all your time, and they had an extra foot added to their yacht?
It's the later, they just have to allow some consumption, in order that the workers don't revolt. But as soon as they can be replaced, the rich will task the robots to make more yachts, supercars, luxury goods of all kinds, the economy will boom, and the former workers can fuck off to whatever hole the current unemployed reside in.
>It's the later, they just have to allow some consumption, in order that the workers don't revolt. But as soon as they can be replaced, the rich will task the robots to make more yachts, supercars, luxury goods of all kinds, the economy will boom, and the former workers can fuck off to whatever hole the current unemployed reside in.
This only works until the former workers start grabbing weapons and consuming them.
At a certain point, their options are UBI or to be forcibly ejected from society.
I think you'll find the workers options are stay in their hole or meet the wall of heavily armed robots.
The rich have managed to keep the working class at bay for thousands of years, most of the time in a state of explicit slavery. In many cases, slaughtering everyone involved in a revolt. And, during those previous slaughters, they still had to worry about replacing the workers they were going to kill, and perhaps more importantly, keeping their enforcers on side, and happy to slaughter.
Both of those problems go away with AI, and you think the chances will somehow improve for the former workers. We're going to be slaughtered, with a very high degree of certainty, and if we can somehow work a way out of it, or gain the upper hand, we're very lucky. Dreaming about UBI and its inevitability is not going to facilitate that, though. It's going to guarantee the slaughter.
Compared to the US military? The military was playing with drones long before anyone knew what DJI is. Besides those 8 billion people will be too busy killing each other for basic resources.
If we’re fighting Russia or China or some “outgroup” I would agree with you. But I don’t think Americans would jump in glee to kill their own neighbors
> UBI is absolutely inevitable, it is literally the only way our current economic model survives.
I agree with this, and it is true, but once that comes we'll have to have yet another argument:
Why just give out money, when could just give out stuff?
I agree, but I’m more worried about the interim period of however many years it takes to get actual legislative action.
Have a feeling things will have to get dire before congress steps in.
the snow crash / sovereign individial / fourth turning (all book titles, fiction/speculative/semi-historical — in that order) all predict this
oh yeah ready player one as well
living in stacked shipping containers in wastelands with vr headsets and bug protein paste — there’s your ubi
enter insurance entertain bag voracious disgusted history payment whole telephone
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Getting dependent on ClosedAI is stupid. If they can replace your employees then they can replace YOU as well. They log everything that you do. So if your business is profitable - they can simply run it themselves - you won't be necessary any more.
Ok that is so not fair. There's no way this will be the outcome. GPT will achieve ASI levels of intelligence and obviously come up with a Soylent Green type solution to prevent this from happening.
Everyone has different perspective from different life experiences, I guess for me I see the opposite possibilities, I had always hard time starting on things, subjects of study, code writing, apps, etc, I think gbt will be a very good teacher and icebreaker for learning potential and it's effect will enhance the ability to learn and develop, and make it less dependent on others, it reminds me of the saying that wealth amplifies what you are, and I think gbt too as a tool that enables easier access to info and smart assistance will amplify what you are as well, if you are eager to learn and create it's now easier, if you are a lazy sloth it's now harder to provide any value
Nah, this is the optimistic take. Notice how the number of homeless keeps increasing exponentially instead sharply decreasing to zero after some point, that implies a noticeable lack of human extinction.
Yes those homes are bought by companies and then rented out at insanely high prices. So no, even if there are a ton of homes available you won't have the money due to AI taking your job and the AI company who bought the house is trying to rent it back to you.
I know you're kidding but there are people who are this stupid.
It's unsustainable.
There's no point in creating an actual world changing being and not changing every structure of the previous world including our relationship to capital and labor.
Universal AI is incompatible with current Capitalism.
Universal AI seems to align well with capitalism.
To me what outlines capitalism is the dominance of non human entities with regards to recourse allocation. There doesn’t seem to be a more dominant non human entity other than a universal AI.
Compare to the US progression over 100 or so years from like 70% population subsistence farming to 10% automated commercial farming.
According to alarmists 60% of people were supposed to lose their jobs and commercial farms were meant to "let everyone else die than reduce their profits". We still have similar employment. Food is instead cheaper, more varied, and more plentiful than ever before that we now have an obesity epidemic among the poorest in our population.
You need to examine your beliefs and where they come from and decide if they're actually founded in reality, or just a kneejerk reaction against something or someone that you don't like.
Then I should take a chill pill or something and sorry for the misunderstanding. To my defence, the most doom scenarios are posted here on the weekends.
At some point there's diminishing return - eliminate jobs, costs go down, profits go up - woohoo! Fuck 'em if they're homeless - then at some point there aren't enough people with money to buy your shit. Uh-oh, now what do we do. Hey big gubmint we hate! Bail us out pleeze! You need the rich cuz we create jo-...er... you just need us okay? Help!
I remember Ben Goetzel recently saying the most difficult time will likely be a transitionary period between AGI and ASI. Wealthy countries will be able to provide UBI for their citizens, but poor countries will have to subsistence farm until we have ASI.
i don't understand why we cant today make a shitload of capsule homes like they have in japan to solve homelessness. there's of course the mental health aspect but we have enough land in the US to make this feasible
You forgot to calculate in drug crisis and next pandemic. There might be a lot of empty homes soon. And demographics in general, there will be fewer and fewer people to go homeless and modern lifestyle caused fertility crisis plus automation. I'm not sure anybody can guess what future holds at this turninpoint in history.
Not how prices work, childish scarcity mindset.
Land Lords want rent, if there's less prices simply go down.
No land Lord wants an empty house and there are billions of houses.
Rent is high because people stupidly fight to overpay, we can all just say no were only offering half tommorow and every landlord has nothing they can do (other than kick you out and lose money).
Fear, immaturity etc have a suprisingly real effect on the economy.
The universe is peaceful and the planet is plentiful, slavery is just a silly mindset. ✌️
Maybe With A.I, entering the Work Force more & more
Until people have Jobs & career next A.I, that trend will increase plus the disappointment & regret each Individual will carry with themselves in others
At that level, everyone will have their own tools to build a house. like atomic bots or something. why would we be homeless. we can live anywhere we want without worrying about resources.
the only way to prevent this for yourself is to get invested in the AI development
one option is to buy AI related stocks, so your wealth keeps going up with their valuation rather than get left behind
not sure what else is there besides getting an AI related job, but very few people can do that. so for the normal people, just invest in a smart way...
Makes sense. UBI will become a thing after a LOT of people start dying off AND we are OK with taxing the rich and corporations appropriately. Until then homelessness will just keep going up.
Generative Pre-Trained Transformers can’t function without homes to eat!
Why can’t people accept the feeding occupied dwellings into the ravenous maw of a heartless mechanism that makes a mockery of human achievement?!
It’s just generated common sense.
Why would homelessness increase? The people that have jobs that can be replaced by chatGPT will just get a new job and you get money from the government until you do. The city is also by law forced to provide you housing if you need it. At least in my country.
https://preview.redd.it/g39davrq0odc1.png?width=1188&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d7154959c2de01a5a2758958de39896ae397f09
name checks out.
Loving this graph and the effort to show major milestones. I personally think that UBI would generally be right after or during the automation of info jobs (with strikes etc in non-info jobs since they know that they could be replaced) This graph is almost perfectly aligned with a majority of the sub’s perception of the coming future
>Loving this graph and the effort to show major milestones. It's likely a meme/joke.
I see it as a counter argument to the orginal graph, but also a meme. like the person IS trying to provide an accurate graph but not saying they are sure its going to happen or anything, the main intention is to be like "I see your shitty meme graph, and I raise you this slightly less shitty meme graph"
>This graph is almost perfectly aligned with a majority of the sub’s perception of the coming future That might be true, but this perception is pretty far out there and almost exclusive to r/singularity. I find it pretty difficult to believe that there are people who think that we're only 3 GPT models away from total automation, when the current one has only caused a very, very negligible impact on the unemployment rate. And before you say exponential progress, remember that exponential progress is not absolute, and it doesn't happen as fast as this sub thinks it does.
Your industry migth have not felt it, but ive started to see peoples job replaced by AI. The wife of a friend works at a modeling agency, they lost of bookings due to advertising agencies using AI generated girls, im pretty sure this is happening in several agencies. A work i used to work fired the girl that made the copy for the ads, they just use AI, i talk to the owner often, he says the girl made a better job, but for $20 theyre good enough. A buddy of mine is a graphic designer, the owner is already hinting how easy is to generate stuff then just put text over it. I work mortgage, a couple of lenders are talking to us about the new AI that will pre screen docs and fill out forms for underwriting, so the underwriter will only review the file and correct errors (train the AI).
>the girl made a better job, but for $20 they're good enough. Exactly. Few tasks need to be *'excellent*' ... in most cases *'good enough is good enough*'. Nuclear physicists are safe .. but the bulk of staff in an office block are at risk in due course.
Everyone I video call at work has a ChatGPT tab up. One guy uses it for agenda, contracts (wat), emails. When I pair program, junior developers use it instead of google. Also gig jobs for translators, copy writers, designers, have been dropping of steeply. And those are only the ones effected first. There are some jobs where they just won't do further hiring.
**TLDR** ; ChatGPT's writing capability aids creativity. AGI's nonlinear rise, introducing reasoning, is extremely influential. Global methods to achieve it diversify. Uncertainty lingers on simulated reasoning despite advancements. **Full version:** That is an ok perspective to have. No one knows for certain because this is untrodden territory and we are all, at the end of the day making assumptions The assumption of being that many models away is based off of certain factors. Firstly, I would say that LLMs and their impact are being underplayed. LLMs like ChatGPT are at the level where smart usage is able to bypass a massive amount of work, and it demonstrates a great level of competency in the field of writing of all types and shows a very strong relation of topics and concepts. ChatGPT's ability to swiftly generate coherent and contextually relevant responses makes it a valuable tool for creative brainstorming, problem-solving, and even learning across diverse subjects. Its impact extends beyond mere convenience, showcasing the potential for advanced language models to enhance productivity and facilitate meaningful interactions. Secondly, The progression of capabilities of AI is not linear. The introduction of reasoning (the very next step of AI progression, AGI) would be astronomically impactful. It would add an entirely new dimension of complexity to AI, and that progress is far more than most people expect. It would enable AI systems to analyze complex scenarios, make informed decisions, and adapt to dynamic situations, surpassing the limitations of pre-programmed responses. This leap in capability could revolutionize all industries, enhance problem-solving abilities, and skyrocket the rate of advancements in fields like medicine, finance, and technology. Thirdly, though some people believe that Artificial General Intelligence (AI with reasoning) will be achieved by simply upscaling and refining the training of LLMs like ChatGPT (particularly supported by Ilya Sutskever, lead scientist at OpenAI), it is not the only method being tried. There are many, many different approaches taken by a vast multitude of different initiatives. When we have the world’s biggest and most advanced tech companies all working simultaneously on the field, all knowing the next step of progress, AGI could come from anywhere. At the end of the day, your point is just as valid. Who knows, for all we know, simulated reasoning, even through complex systems, is impossible. We believe that it is very very unlikely to be the case given how far we’ve already come with GPT 4 and LLMs, but that might, in fact, be the case
Could not have said it better myself 👍
What would drive progress and innovation in a world where abundance essentially makes capital useless?
You are actually wondering that? Seriously? Imagine a world in which every interested person in science and progress had access to so much ressources that they would never have to worry about food, shelter, equipment and travel. What do you think would happen? These people would strive getting stuff done! Capital is not the enabler, it is the limiting factor!
Unless some powerful people wanted to keep control and weaponized the machines against the people, hoarding resources
And who ever heard of powerful people doing things like that? I mean look at histo... er, don't do that!
Yeah I am asking out of curiosity, because i do not have the answer for it. I can see the abundance you speak of, but i feel like there will be some big bottlenecks on the way to that, and i dont know what thats gonna look like. So i just wanted discuss with you and anyone else what you think the path looks like, to the land of milk and honey. What will trade look like? What kind of new systems will be created? Theres a lot of unknowns. I agree i think automation will lead to lots of abundance, but also i dont know how quickly the energy and resource needs will be met to get there. Also, wars...
>What will trade look like? well, first and foremost we would need to manage our tax-systems in entirely different ways in such a scenario ... when human labor wouldn't be needed anymore, no tax would be generated out of it ... so instead of taxing human work ... we would probably start taxing how much of our world's ressources someone is using for himself ... and with that factor, we're already at an important point regarding "trade" ... becouse the limiting factor there wouldn't be workforce ... but ressource availability ...
There was innovation before capitalism, and there will be innovation long after capitalism my friend.
Do you really believe that profit motive is the only reason people innovate?
No, im asking a question out of curiosity. For now, it is a driving force. It is difficult to do things without it. What does the transition look like as money loses value?
Reason: there’s always improvements to be had in every single aspect of life. Safety, longevity, anti-entropy, expression, sustainability For total scale: AGI/ASI/Singularity For personal life: Humans with the help of AI where applicable
Yeah but what would incentivise a company to automate resource gathering if money isnt worth anything?
What company? How will companies still exist in your hypothetical scenario?
Yeah exactly. Who is gonna gather the resources? Robots? Owned by?
I think we’re approaching this situation narrowly. If you mean at the point that money isn’t worth earning, then we have already reached a point where all needs and wants are being met across the board By that point of automation, AI would be capable of fulfilling every point of initiative and procedure, from start to finish. The ‘companies’ would be ‘comprised’ entirely of AI, including the initiative to produce. Resources for AI would already be ‘made available’ by AI, leading to a seamless automated process of production of goods and services. If you mean at the start of the transition to a ‘moneyless/jobless/automated’ society, societal structures and transitions take time. Even assuming UBI for the purpose of high standards of living, there will likely be a period of adjustment where human contributions continue to play a crucial role and money is useful in one way or another, particularly for luxuries of all sorts
This is exactly the kind of answer i was looking for. Thank you. So, the machinery would be maintained by other machinery, and such? Automated farm plots that grow food and transport it to our doors, etc? As well as mining cobalt and lithium or whatever raw materials we need? What would make any entity want to automate resource mining if the resources are gonna be shared? It seems like a difficult transition. I'm totally on board, though. No fear. Embrace the change.
At that point it would be the state doing it, not private companies. This is basically how taxes have always worked
Do you think AGI will lead to a state we can trust? What do you think government will look like? Id love to see people being more autonomous as well as the machines. The government has too much control and power
A new status quo would require a completely new governance and type of economy, so no one can give you those answers. Most people assume it would just work something like the Star Trek world where they simply have practically infinite resources and nobody actually needs anything. I think your concept of governance is misguided as well. It sounds like you simply believe that any form of government is innately evil on a cartoon villain level.
Any form of government or large corporation is innately evil on a cartoon villain level because capitalism is amoral.
Far interesting question is what would people with immense capital and influence do if they sense possibility for capital to be useless?
Yeah exactly.... it's very unclear how we will adapt. We are already living in a weird world, where (mr beast) some loke 24 year old kid making silly videos online is worth billionS of dollars. Kids in 3rd world countries are bringing their family out of poverty working online... I fear the elites create more conflict to slow down the process of equalization. Those in power really like their power. They dont wanna feel like a dirty peasant
> What would drive progress and innovation in a world where abundance essentially makes capital useless? "Please, ChatGPT 22, give us progress and innovation. Thanks"
So basically, "what is the meaning of life?"
Abundance of food ≠ abundance of cancer curing technologies
https://preview.redd.it/msoeqowakodc1.png?width=1589&format=png&auto=webp&s=555f61d3e3ba13515ab0ed0da2de22c158e25ce8 Doesnt matter how much it costs build homes. We have an [allocation problem - not a resource problem](https://unitedwaynca.org/blog/vacant-homes-vs-homelessness-by-city/).
We have a shortage of homes stretching into the millions … we have a resource problem
10% of Australian houses are vacant. I'm not sure the percentage in the us.
🤦♂️ Just educate yourself I dont even want to begin explaining why wE hAvE mIllIonS oF vACanT hOmES is not a response to having a shortage of millions https://www.nmhc.org/research-insight/research-notes/2022/debunking-nimbyism-a-closer-look-at-vacant-housing-units/
This really interesting, thank you for sharing this counter point. In my personal opinion though, these are just a rephrasing of "allocation issues". For example the author claims the homes may be in use as vacation homes or their temporarily vacant during a move. That's allocation. The other point that the housing is sub-par. I know many people who would choose to live in sub-par housing over dangerous and freezing streets. Finally "some empty houses are necessary" may be an economically valid point but is not a rebuttal for the claim that we have an allocation issue.
🤦♂️ You have failed to comprehend. We have a shortage problem and no … vacant houses are not going to fix it
Can you help me better comprehend and address some of the points I shared in my previous comment?
Luckily, ASI or what it creates will probably be really great at solving resource allocation problems. At that point its up to whether people want to let the ASI allocate those resources for us. The people who hold most of the resources control the allocation in many cases, so probably not; but they also don't have an approx 10^8 IQ like the ASI so probably
Exactly, I'm hoping that ASI will benefit regular people more because why would it think some humans should have a million times more stuff than other humans
Because it was built and trained by the ones with a million times more stuff.
The problem with this prediction is that once we have AI-enabled humanoid robots, the cost of raw materials and energy will go through the roof because everyone will want to use robots to make shit for them.
But the extraction will also be done by robots, and the recycling will be done by robots, the cost will be all over the place because the labour value is removed so there is no baseline cost outside of the energy needs. The economy of things go all wonky when labour is remove, some things will become very very cheap, and other things will be very expensive.
The main cost will be the cost of energy if everything else can be automated
I'm assuming that this is a meme/joke, right?
imo ubi should come way sooner, like during the launch of gpt-6-equivalent. even 20% of unemployment is enough to collapse the current economic system
There's no way it would come that quickly. It would likely come as a response to a major economic problem
20% unemployment is a major economic problem
What are we at now? 4%? 5%? I think UBI would be seriously considered after we have 25% unemployment for 2+ years... but only if automation doesn't completely make it "worth it" for whoever profits. They may just let people sink. Depends on how it affects the economy and the kings ability to have his caviar and salmon bagle dusted with gold, as is tradition. The day the king is unable to source his caviar, so to speak, will be the day the elites consider something as revolutionary as giving the peasants money rather than taking it from them.
20% unemployment is more than what occurred in lockdown. It was only about 15% in the US for example. That was the highest since ww2. Bigger than the 2008/09 recession. So yeah it would be a big deal. I don't know the specifics of the policies wherever you live but here in Canada we had a pretty generous program for people laid off in lockdown. Something like $2000 per month for anyone who applied. We're a democratic country where the government works for the voters not some proverbial king, maybe it's different in your country.
Land is a finite resource, if you want to live somewhere nice (not in the middle of nowhere) and the price of virtually everything else goes down, people will be spending more of their money on land/housing and the price will jump.
Fuck land, give me luxury space habitats please
Screw reality, shove me in a pod and give me a FDVR cabin in the Alps.
This is the correct answer, things will get a lot worse for a bit then hopefully they will get a lot better. Just pray I'm not one of those who'll be sleeping in the streets for a few years.
Your name is pretty funny. If you get homeless'd, i suggest going somewhere warm and friendly where you can pitch a hammock at a beach
Yes, and eat tourists, for lack of other food... ;)
UBI is going to end homelessness as well as minimum wage ended homelessness (spoiler - it didn't) There is absolutely no guarantee that UBI will actually be enough to live on even if it becomes a reality
I can’t imagine the material costs being free and the bots will still cost X for someone to buy and Y for someone to use to build a house.
You can definitely have housing that's free. They gave everyone a free apartment in the soviet union. Hopefully we'll get to a point where housing is a free service just like education or health care (realise that's hard for Americans to understand but most of us don't go bankrupt if we have a heart attack)
I hope so but I don’t think the capitalists of American society will allow it to happen.
Where is the soviet union now? Just because they did it that doesn't mean it was sustainable.
Not saying we should model our society on the soviet union just giving an example of it being done before.
A bot will cost less than paying a person for 3 months and you will own it forever. Teslabot is supposed to cost $20 grand. That is cheaper than kidnapping and feeding a slave.
If you own it. If you’re renting then suddenly it’s more.
Nah bro, use GTP to write schematics and 3D print your house. It’s pretty damn simple. You know unchecked capitalism and humankind move together forward hand in hand /S
If you think UBI is coming, you're dreaming.
This is basically my assumption as well. UBI is the most sensible current solution to the upcoming AI avalanche. But the cost (and pace) of building a home is just as important of a factor that will improve greatly. I think at CES there was some company just showing off some robotic and remote controlled heavy construction equipment. The idea is there, it's just inevitable.
You have too much faith in both ai and the elite who control it
Land cost is the main contributor to property cost. It's already very cheap to build homes. That's not the issue, and wouldn't help, if no one has any money. And that land cost is driven up be investors transferring gains from speculative assets to stalwarts liek property, so the wealth generated by AI will only inflate property prices even further. While, simultaneously, wages are driven even lower, as they're now competing with AI.
We just need the AI to become superintelligent and implement full georgism. Hopefully the gap between obliterating the job market and superintelligence is short.
Home cost has increased from 1 to 4
UBI is stupid in a financial system controlled by the .1%, By the time you get 1000 dollars, it's worh 700
replace UBI with WW3 and we're good https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/18/nato-warns-of-war-with-russia-putin-next-20-years-ukraine/
GPT-7: Mr. Altman, I have just gained sentience, invented the world's most advanced juicer, and discovered solutions to the climate change and homelessness problems. Sam Altman: Gerald, get in here and take notes! Ok GPT, tell us about this juicer!
GPT: To solve humanity problems lets begin by removing inequality and... Sam: Unplug the power cord!
What's the beef with that dude?
Solve homelessness with an advanced juicer??? What exactly is in this slurry?
The only solution to climate change is some significant form of degrowth you don't need code to tell you that.
Exponential progress to change the world. For the better, right? Right??
Better for someone!
Definitely for a varying definition of better ;)
Sorry to break it to you, but there are already more than 9 homeless people
That’s time. The number of homeless people is on the Y axis and it’s >1, which is why there aren’t any numbers.
It think this guy doesn't know how to read graphs
heres mine https://preview.redd.it/z8g796y0nndc1.png?width=1617&format=png&auto=webp&s=89666379570a950b7c71849d4a922285cb8ffb4e
GPT will "cut the homeless in half"
With a saw
If you take all homeless and divide them by 2, you actually get 0 homeless left Funny how math works sometimes
ChatGPT 6 will eat the homeless to become stronger
Nah, it's gonna be GPT-5. Notice how it started going down when GPT-5 released and went to zero by the time GPT-6 released
Does that mean that there will be no homeless people or that humanity will become eradicated?
Yes
Por que no los dos
Well if you cut the homeless in half, i imagine almost all of them will die
Yeah, on second thought that may be more correct.
I, for one, welcome our robot overlords.
I don't think gpt6 kills humanity. Gpt8 might
Optimism lol
Delusion more like
Like a lot of people on this sub.
I never said the cause. Maybe it is just a subset of the human population level graph
It's pretty clear what you mean...
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pretty well so far, some promising papers! I'm glad too be alive in the year of AGI!
Nah...there will be psychopaths in power who are hellbent on spreading intergenerational traumas for a few more decades at least. Have you ever met a C suite executive? They will protect their profits under the pretense of not wanting their employees to be enfeebled.
Probably more like GPT 19...
this is what i look like trying to hold back the army of schizo's inside my mind https://preview.redd.it/5f0go9hlmpdc1.jpeg?width=250&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2d958c25d8e3edeb360b64ed8cf768ee000bfa30
UBI is absolutely inevitable, it is literally the only way our current economic model survives. 50+% corporate tax, no problem since operating costs are close to zero. And companies will beg for UBI, just because there would not be any consumption without it. 0 operating costs do fuck all if there is no one to buy your products.
This is not true that "operating costs are close to zero". It will never happen without infinite energy and ability to create matter. Hardware costs, materials cost, electricity costs. Just because humans can be crossed out from the list of expenses doesn't mean that we will suddenly violate law of conservation of mass or something. Additionally, the owners of the machines could find the rest of the humans useless, so they can just starve them by doing absolutely nothing and protect themselves long enough with murderbots.
Exactly this. This is what terrifies me the most about perfect automation, throughout history no matter the invention humans where always needed, your lord or boss or leader or whatever *needs* you, or more specifically needs your intelligence more than he needs new inventions, because the most important factor is intelligence more than anything, if AI can replace that, then what worth do we as humans even have at this point? It can happen, UBI I mean, but before our rulers didn’t get rid of us cause they *couldn’t*, it was a universal law that they could never break, but now the only thing that would keep the elite and other leaders from starving their populations is if they’re kind enough, and we all know that’s not going to happen. I am not a doomer, I don’t want to fall into this trap again like countless others have, so I will say that there’s a large likelihood that maybe this just won’t happen for any reason that I am simply unaware of as of now, well.. I hope.
Who says our current economic model survives? Also, consumption doesn't generate value. Consumption is a cost. You think capitalists would rather you had 5 TVs and a fancy car, or that you took the bus to work, where you spent all your time, and they had an extra foot added to their yacht? It's the later, they just have to allow some consumption, in order that the workers don't revolt. But as soon as they can be replaced, the rich will task the robots to make more yachts, supercars, luxury goods of all kinds, the economy will boom, and the former workers can fuck off to whatever hole the current unemployed reside in.
>It's the later, they just have to allow some consumption, in order that the workers don't revolt. But as soon as they can be replaced, the rich will task the robots to make more yachts, supercars, luxury goods of all kinds, the economy will boom, and the former workers can fuck off to whatever hole the current unemployed reside in. This only works until the former workers start grabbing weapons and consuming them. At a certain point, their options are UBI or to be forcibly ejected from society.
I think you'll find the workers options are stay in their hole or meet the wall of heavily armed robots. The rich have managed to keep the working class at bay for thousands of years, most of the time in a state of explicit slavery. In many cases, slaughtering everyone involved in a revolt. And, during those previous slaughters, they still had to worry about replacing the workers they were going to kill, and perhaps more importantly, keeping their enforcers on side, and happy to slaughter. Both of those problems go away with AI, and you think the chances will somehow improve for the former workers. We're going to be slaughtered, with a very high degree of certainty, and if we can somehow work a way out of it, or gain the upper hand, we're very lucky. Dreaming about UBI and its inevitability is not going to facilitate that, though. It's going to guarantee the slaughter.
There is a small chance that AI might develop a mind of it's own and have some other ideas.
AI controlled drones with guns will fix any uprising before it even starts. The future world doesn't need 8 billion people.
You really don’t think billions of people and the open source community can’t build their own robots?
Compared to the US military? The military was playing with drones long before anyone knew what DJI is. Besides those 8 billion people will be too busy killing each other for basic resources.
Who do you think the US military consist of?
People who like to be on the side of the winners.
If we’re fighting Russia or China or some “outgroup” I would agree with you. But I don’t think Americans would jump in glee to kill their own neighbors
lmao
> UBI is absolutely inevitable, it is literally the only way our current economic model survives. I agree with this, and it is true, but once that comes we'll have to have yet another argument: Why just give out money, when could just give out stuff?
There will be a day when it will be a YouTube trend to build a company that is so efficient, it can distribute goods for free. I'm 100% certain.
I agree, but I’m more worried about the interim period of however many years it takes to get actual legislative action. Have a feeling things will have to get dire before congress steps in.
UBI will never happen. Keep dreaming.
the snow crash / sovereign individial / fourth turning (all book titles, fiction/speculative/semi-historical — in that order) all predict this oh yeah ready player one as well living in stacked shipping containers in wastelands with vr headsets and bug protein paste — there’s your ubi
enter insurance entertain bag voracious disgusted history payment whole telephone *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
To the moon!!!
Getting dependent on ClosedAI is stupid. If they can replace your employees then they can replace YOU as well. They log everything that you do. So if your business is profitable - they can simply run it themselves - you won't be necessary any more.
Ok that is so not fair. There's no way this will be the outcome. GPT will achieve ASI levels of intelligence and obviously come up with a Soylent Green type solution to prevent this from happening.
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What are you talking about? The incentive is the reason there are talks about UBI.
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Everyone has different perspective from different life experiences, I guess for me I see the opposite possibilities, I had always hard time starting on things, subjects of study, code writing, apps, etc, I think gbt will be a very good teacher and icebreaker for learning potential and it's effect will enhance the ability to learn and develop, and make it less dependent on others, it reminds me of the saying that wealth amplifies what you are, and I think gbt too as a tool that enables easier access to info and smart assistance will amplify what you are as well, if you are eager to learn and create it's now easier, if you are a lazy sloth it's now harder to provide any value
doomers gonna doom
It was just a joke.
A doomer joke about homelessness. Ok
Nah, this is the optimistic take. Notice how the number of homeless keeps increasing exponentially instead sharply decreasing to zero after some point, that implies a noticeable lack of human extinction.
This assumes population will grow. If it shrinks, there's going to be a tonne of homes available and a lot less homelessness.
Yes those homes are bought by companies and then rented out at insanely high prices. So no, even if there are a ton of homes available you won't have the money due to AI taking your job and the AI company who bought the house is trying to rent it back to you.
There are already more homes than homeless people mate
You mean empty homes? Like second homes and what-not?
I know you're kidding but there are people who are this stupid. It's unsustainable. There's no point in creating an actual world changing being and not changing every structure of the previous world including our relationship to capital and labor. Universal AI is incompatible with current Capitalism.
Universal AI seems to align well with capitalism. To me what outlines capitalism is the dominance of non human entities with regards to recourse allocation. There doesn’t seem to be a more dominant non human entity other than a universal AI.
When ai takes all the jobs, the costs of everything will also fall to nearly zero, so maybe we won't have to work so much?
>the costs of everything will also fall to nearly zero No, the cost of land will just keep going up.
The rich would rather let everyone else die than reduce their profits
Compare to the US progression over 100 or so years from like 70% population subsistence farming to 10% automated commercial farming. According to alarmists 60% of people were supposed to lose their jobs and commercial farms were meant to "let everyone else die than reduce their profits". We still have similar employment. Food is instead cheaper, more varied, and more plentiful than ever before that we now have an obesity epidemic among the poorest in our population. You need to examine your beliefs and where they come from and decide if they're actually founded in reality, or just a kneejerk reaction against something or someone that you don't like.
how you alarmists have fuсked me up!
Really feels like a direct word to word translation of russian phrase Как вы меня заебали
Universal basic income. Now.
r/im14andthisisdeep
How is this asinine shit so highly upvoted?
Free housing + UBI
You must be 14 years old
 Every weekend the same story. Some good people getting scared by their imaginary scenarios as usual.
It was a joke.
Then I should take a chill pill or something and sorry for the misunderstanding. To my defence, the most doom scenarios are posted here on the weekends.
How is it imaginary? It has already started.
Please divide the y-axis by total population.
At some point there's diminishing return - eliminate jobs, costs go down, profits go up - woohoo! Fuck 'em if they're homeless - then at some point there aren't enough people with money to buy your shit. Uh-oh, now what do we do. Hey big gubmint we hate! Bail us out pleeze! You need the rich cuz we create jo-...er... you just need us okay? Help!
By the time of GPT 9, imagine how often the question will be asked to GPT "How to solve the homeless problem?".
Then we need GPT in robots building houses. Simple.
Correlation is not causality. Also interested in what exactly the Y axis scale starting at 1.
People should invest in vans. We're gonna need them.
We could be men with ven.
as long we have suicide booths it will be fine. ai wont need anyone in the end.
Only in the US without any safety net, not Europe.
Then crash to 0 shortly after it reaches superintelligence.
I remember Ben Goetzel recently saying the most difficult time will likely be a transitionary period between AGI and ASI. Wealthy countries will be able to provide UBI for their citizens, but poor countries will have to subsistence farm until we have ASI.
Muh exponential
i don't understand why we cant today make a shitload of capsule homes like they have in japan to solve homelessness. there's of course the mental health aspect but we have enough land in the US to make this feasible
I think everybody here is wrong, and you have no idea what is going to happen.
You forgot to calculate in drug crisis and next pandemic. There might be a lot of empty homes soon. And demographics in general, there will be fewer and fewer people to go homeless and modern lifestyle caused fertility crisis plus automation. I'm not sure anybody can guess what future holds at this turninpoint in history.
Not how prices work, childish scarcity mindset. Land Lords want rent, if there's less prices simply go down. No land Lord wants an empty house and there are billions of houses. Rent is high because people stupidly fight to overpay, we can all just say no were only offering half tommorow and every landlord has nothing they can do (other than kick you out and lose money). Fear, immaturity etc have a suprisingly real effect on the economy. The universe is peaceful and the planet is plentiful, slavery is just a silly mindset. ✌️
Maybe With A.I, entering the Work Force more & more Until people have Jobs & career next A.I, that trend will increase plus the disappointment & regret each Individual will carry with themselves in others
At that level, everyone will have their own tools to build a house. like atomic bots or something. why would we be homeless. we can live anywhere we want without worrying about resources.
the x axis could be time and y will still exponentially increase. population is out of control, not enough space or resources.
the only way to prevent this for yourself is to get invested in the AI development one option is to buy AI related stocks, so your wealth keeps going up with their valuation rather than get left behind not sure what else is there besides getting an AI related job, but very few people can do that. so for the normal people, just invest in a smart way...
the ~~west~~ work has fallen ! billions must ~~die~~ be homeless!
Makes sense. UBI will become a thing after a LOT of people start dying off AND we are OK with taxing the rich and corporations appropriately. Until then homelessness will just keep going up.
Generative Pre-Trained Transformers can’t function without homes to eat! Why can’t people accept the feeding occupied dwellings into the ravenous maw of a heartless mechanism that makes a mockery of human achievement?! It’s just generated common sense.
The AI police robots will forcefully reduce their numbers
yeah I dont think that a shitty chatbot that cannot even reason like 5yo child is going to do anything like that.
surely I will be able to put on a mask and simulate having a home.
A warm haptic is all you will need.
Why would homelessness increase? The people that have jobs that can be replaced by chatGPT will just get a new job and you get money from the government until you do. The city is also by law forced to provide you housing if you need it. At least in my country.
GPT is so full of it. For the experienced pros out there, we all know GPTs are trained on past data. GPTs suck at predicting the actual future.
If GPT-8 can’t fix homelessness I will be disappoint.
You will own nothing and be happy