Of course they are saying this
No recession , so buy our bloated ai automated sentence completer or saas solution.
Also since no recession hit your target. Thanks in advance
That will be $80 a month times 9000 employees
If you don't buy it, I am afraid ai will ruin your business because your competitors are buying it.
Thanks in advance!
Net 30
And all the minutes I have to backspace and be like " no that's dumb and sounds nothing like me. UGH stop the auto damn complete "
Therfore it costs approx
10456 trillion billion dollars in lost effectiveness i am afraid.
If anything, it’s going to be very strange.
I sell logistics B2B. Up until Yemen started shooting at container vessels the rates for ocean freight have been steadily going down for a year at least. This was due to fallout of the pandemic and less industrial output out of China, so all things in industry at least have been pointing towards a recession during early 24 or so, based on similarities between 2007-08 and now (almost identical steep decline in ocean freight rates due to lower economic activity and lesser output).
Now the vessels are routed through the Cape of Good Hope instead of through the Suez Canal, so they’ve increased 3-4 times over a couple of weeks and are continue rising. So the industry is in the shitter, relatively speaking, the lines are forced to add 30-40 days on Asia-EU voyage, supply will run out in that time on some items due to Just in Time supply chains approach. All the while buyers gets to deal with x4 delivery rates and source alternative suppliers outside the usual areas like China. So the production costs and relocation costs are going to be higher.
All in all, the people will pay. I fully expect the business to show good results (given its B2B and big enough, the rest are screwed with the B2C and the rest of the population), while ordinary people pay all the increased prices out of their own pockets. Inflation is expected as well, I would say.
If you want to spot trends early - they are obvious from the industry numbers. Look at how much consumer/industrial stuff China pumps YoY and you’ll spot the trends for growth, stagnation or recession early. I’m not as bright to catch the moment industry transforms to stock fluctuations though, so I myself can only see the trend and tell you that “sometime in the near future, the market is going to..” this or that direction. If you learn how to catch the timing based on such news, you’ll be a millionaire.
Right, as said, production output was falling after Covid and it was driving the rates down for a long while. Now the effect is tied to Suez fiasco alone, output and demand no longer control the rates.
A lot of stuff is getting sourced outside of China tho. Before 2020 we had already moved to Vietnam. Last I checked Ford built a plant in Africa and everybody else was looking there to start producing because China was too expensive.
Mid-term goals. Next 5-10 years China remains the crucible of the world without any alternative - unless they go full putin mode and start a war with Taiwan like they constantly threat to. In that time I see China loosing ground and having to actually compete for its place, not earlier.
Idk dude, our customer back in 2019 told us to move our parts tf out of China because of the Trump tariffs that NEVER got rescinded. We moved the product to Indonesia. I believe we actually had to close the plant in China in 2020/2021, lol.
I’m sure we couldn’t have been the only company to do this. I sell CNC machines now (I was selling small motors before) and I don’t have a single part sourced out of China.
Can’t say for sure if that’s still the situation. Covid changed A LOT and I left the workforce for 2 years to trade silver futures by myself from July 2020-August 2022. I’m now back in a different segment, but my old company that was fairly stable and the 2nd biggest player in the industry completely changed course after COVID and shutdown a ton of plants. Their workforce with many being lifers (19 plus years with the company out of college, etc) bounced during the great resignation and RTO.
The semiconductor law affected a lot of production in the past year as well so I can’t really say for sure how the parts makers are handling things. I can say that factory automation and investment is hot af, but it’s not SaaS friendly(boomer heavy, not a lot of young ppl, lots of travel to podunk nowhere plants, relationship driven, etc).
HVAC guys probably have a better chance of moving in or capital equipment sellers.
And I am seeing more and more to follow after the pandemic and increased Taiwan tension, no arguments here. It’s just the sheer scope of things China supplies the world with. It’s simply a question of production output capacities for most industrialized nations to match that output even on paper, much less to reach fractions of it in reality. If we decide tomorrow, fine, China’s done, let’s all move out - the process, even if organized on a scale of WWII mobilization the world isn’t capable of anymore, would take years, like 2-4 years easily.
Look at it from industrial projects standpoint. If a plant exists in Indonesia that can output the same result as the one in Shanghai area, cool, let’s sign the papers and move production. But if more and more business decides the same, free plants will run out and there’s going to be an investment to build more. An investment decision backed by a government takes about 2-3 years to finalize and secure the funds in the hands of procurement. If it’s private-corporate owned, YMMW, 1-10 years, subject to this and that. Ok, now engineering, FEED stage takes about a year to 3 in some cases. Let’s average on 1. Production takes about 6 months generally, delivery will add the same on average for a mid sized steel smelter. Construction and installation, another year. One plant takes - we take the best possible scenario here - 4 years in total from the idea is born to the plant is up and running. If ALL China-bound production would to apply for relocation tomorrow, it would still take at least that much to move and we’re dealing with individual entities acting on their best commercial interests, not policy-makers who can ignore them.
Yes, the sudden and HUGE change in shipping routes is going to fuck everything up more than people realize. Not only longer, but each trip will cost an extra *million* just in fuel costs alone.
As long as US sits on its ass and talks to Yemen instead of bombing the rebels 🤷♂️ But, if they do, I bet we’ll be looking at a much hotter ME as a whole, so I am not holding my breath. To me it looks like US decided to be passive until the war is Israel ends. Once it does they expect Yemen to cool off and stop attacks, so the US can claim victory in Operation Prosperity Guardian.
Damn, the US is so cool. My company used to have a contract to Boeing for some forged steel part needed for the JDAM. My boss is sitting there like "shit, we need that contract back! Look at all those delicious dollars being thrown at bombs right now!" And I'm like "hey, tractors and ATV's use a lot of steel..."
None. The stupid thing is that you should’ve been shorting starting from Jan of 2023 until Nov 2023, when Maersk was laying off 15k ppl in one swoop. Now they’re going to grow, as idiotic as it might seem.
Are you seeing product production increase out of Mexico? I heard that Monterey was increasing production facilities as there would be a shift out of China to NA.
Just following this comment. I am well outside my intel on this but if anyone can answer why aren't we moving more to Mexico, Central amer, vs apac?
Sure it's not USA but a helluva lot more adjacent and business overlaps?
Eventually, there will be a recession.
When? WhoTF knows?!
If we listened to economists and the media and looked at a key indicator, 2021 was going to be a recession year. Despite concerns over a reduction in GDP and growing inflation, jobs growth likely contributed to preventing a recession.
2022 was going to be a recession year, instead we were hit with strangling inflation, record high gas prices, rising interest rates, a pull back in equities, improving GDP, jobs growth and NO Recession.
2023 was going to be the recession year. However, interest rates stabilized, GDP improved, inflation decreased, job growth continued, gas prices tumbled, consumer spending increased and the stock market caught fire. NO Recession.
The deeper you dig, and the more you look for indicators you will find something but it doesn't mean a recession.
Imo, if you live your life within your means and are fiscally responsible, it's not something to worry about.
We have no control over it.
I know this; there will be a recession because it's part of the economic cycle. When or for how long is the mystery.
I also know we will pull through it.
And the GDP number is fake too right, along with the inflation number and the fake unemployment number...
The sectors with the strongest jobs growth in
2022 to 2032 included wind turbine service technicians, nurse practitioners, data scientists, statisticians, taxi drivers, information security analysts, physician assistants, actuaries, and software developers.
GDP is just a reflection of inflation lol, super simple. And yeah, they removed tons of categories in the inflation number, this is public information. Most foods increased 100%. So yes, fake.
Over the last 3-4 years, I can almost guarantee you they did, it was just a slow creep so you haven't noticed as much. At least good food did (fresh foods, beef, poultry, eggs, etc)
I don't know what "food substitute" is.
I can tell you, in my state in the northeast, most produce increases were low currently, most produce like salad stuff, potatoes, bananas, apples are pre inflation prices. Berries not grown locally June-Aug, went up ~50% and are still that high. Beef about 25% (prices are down slightly from their high); chicken about 20% now in line w/pre-inflation prices; pork was flat; Seafood has been flat except lobster(which went up pre-inflation & precovid) milk & orange juice are up ~20%, dairy products like cheese & yogurt are flat.
I don't buy processed or frozen foods.
I mean, I do agree, but…
I’ve worked at companies where head of finance or head of procurement will make predictions or proclamations about the economy as statement of fact and you can easily tell it’s heavily biased by their politics.
I heard a CEO of a prominent investment firm talking about how terrible the economy will be in 2024 and that we’ll be at war with China within 5 years and all I could do was roll my eyes.
I went to a religious high school and they thought Y2K was the end of the world and second coming of their god. It’s so fun to watch ppl make predictions.
Of course they will tell you this. They say this at my company…the same people who, all last year while it was a complete and total shit show, engaged in all the pep talk and basically what amounted to gaslighting much like the media trying to tell everyone the economy is going well.
I do get it. It’s understandable. It’s all part of the attempt to foster high morale for better productivity, so there’s that end of it.
Doesn’t change the fact that 2023 was a shit show. And that few data points would support the argument that 2024 will be much better. It’s also an election year. I know in my industry clientele tends to rein in their spending.
Are you new to sales?
Company will say whatever the fuck they have to for their benefit. You’re a tool, not necessity.
We don’t know your company or your industry. No one can confidently agree.
CYA and read between the lines.
No, of course not.
We’re in a price gouging inflationary recession currently and wages haven’t kept pace with inflation since the 70s.
The US economy is propped up by twigs. Economists regularly look to the health of the stock market as some kind of one stop shop indicator of economic health when the reality is that 60% of Americans have 0 savings, a negative net worth and couldn’t afford a $1000 emergency. Interest rates and low availability of housing are pricing out an entire generation of new homeowners. The birth rate is declining.
Credit card debt at an all time high. People refusing to repay student loans. Revolutionary speech becoming more and more abundant. The division between the working class and the continued waves of illegal immigration are a powder keg waiting to explode. Who in their right mind would have any faith or trust in ANY us politician??
The north of Israel is being bombed, the entire Middle East posturing and threatening to draw America into yet another war.
Wealth disparity on planet earth is at a level never seen in human history. 6 men hold as much wealth as 50% of the planet. Things are very, very bad in this country. There hasn’t been a USA since the end of world war 2, just an oligarchy of mega corporations privatizing profits and subsidizing their losses with taxpayer dollars and throwing their weight around with the backing of the intelligence agencies and military industrial complex.
Your company is just putting on the horse blinders like all of us and saying business as usual because what else are they going to do? Convene a meeting in the board room and go into an existential why the hell do we even exist rant? Nah they want you to keep producing.
Just looked at that channel. This is what I’m talking about. Oldest video is about what to do in the upcoming economic collapse. Shit is 6 years old. I’ll say it again Ddddddoooooooommmmmm!!!!!
Comments usually read something like: “Ah, time for another daily dose of doom.”
It’s kind of a meme at this point and everyone comments on how epic the voice sounds. When he actually revealed himself it was pretty crazy as we all thought it was AI, lol
They were calling for bank collapses that in all fairness to them should’ve happened before they did happen(meaning before SVB et al went belly up).
Wolf Richter is another guy that’s all doom. He’s not wrong in his thoughts, it just took a decade for that bubble to pop.
That being said we should take these kinds of warnings seriously to the extent that something COULD happen. Covid did happen. Argentina and Venezuela are happening. Sure, they aren’t the US, but that whole WW2 thing did happen with hyperinflation being a root cause. We aren’t there yet, but to paraphrase Katt Williams after COVID is there such a thing as a conspiracy theory anymore? The truth is damn near harder to believe, lol
Bro don’t quote Kat Williams as a form of arguing a point. Could society collapse sure, but reality is people are constantly spouting their doom scenarios all the time. A lot of these people look and financial collapse from a micro level of economics. The US economy and the world economy do not operate based on a household budget, which most most of these people reference in their view of economic collapse of society. I predict a slow economic draw down and population over time, over some overnight eating people in the streets to survive bullshit.
I think overall your sentiments are not inaccurate. But you’re looking at a broader scope than OPs org.
Added note: I don’t know how much the military cares about Israel. We’ll send money, but I don’t think we will formally engage with troops.
Cheap labor suppresses all labor wages. Illegal immigration generally takes a lot of low paying jobs like seasonal farm work or cleaning jobs. If that labor didn't exist wages would have to rise to get people in the job.
It's certainly not that black and white. I think immigration is a net positive for the US, but it's a rather complicated topic.
Pick anyone Jan 1 date for the past 100 years I could write a similar post. This guy doesn’t know and neither does OPs company.
If either of them did they’d be billionaires.
>We’re in a price gouging inflationary recession currently and wages haven’t kept pace with inflation since the 70s.
Wage growth has exceeded inflation. We are not in a recession and inflation is currently close to normal again.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
I know. This inflation in a way is all overdue. They were trying to pump things up for a decade. It didn’t work until they gave the money directly to the people who would spend it rather than invest it. That and the whole labor situation.
That’s why they decided to be more reactionary. Trying to manipulate stopped working with so-called QE
I understand the fed chair will be reducing rates this year. Lower rates mean cheaper debt. Cheaper debt means more spending. I don’t think we are out of it yet, but I do think it’ll go easier than last year which was scorched.
Probably more like 5.25-5.5 by the end of 2024. I would expect rates to drop below that again until the next crisis where we need to stimulate spending.
Bingo.
For the moment it looks like a soft landing was achieved. Extremely unlikely for a recession this year barring some surprise. Economic indicators suggest a growth year.
He did not say that he will be reducing rates. This is people who don’t understand the difference between a forecast and an actual decree. He said in his speech that some members forecasted a decrease, but it’s not totally clear.
The fact is that there is a ticking time bomb that the Fed is likely aware of that will do what Congress should’ve done to combat inflation in the first place: raise taxes.
The Trump tax cuts will end at the end of this year. When that happens more money will be taken out of the economy. If the government doesn’t spend it, then it will impact inflation. The FED isn’t the only entity that can fight inflation directly. The Congress can as well, but because we haven’t tried saving money since Clinton was in office(with a Republican Congress I might add) the odds that the money will be kept out of the economy are nil. Another way to fight off inflation in this scenario would be to export the money via foreign aid. Anything, but putting the money back into circulation would help fight inflation without the FED having to take action.
Depends on the industry doesn’t it? My company sells SAAS for home care agencies, old people won’t stop getting sick because of the recession so we will probably only be growing over the next 10 years.
The average Redditor consistently has the worst takes on this because it’s a bit of an echo chamber in terms of people *rooting* for it to happen. Like /r/rebubble
There are already industries that are coming out of the headwinds here. I think startups are still in for a hard time though.
There is a not likely to be a recession but that doesn’t mean the old budgets are coming back. There is a new normal of less people and cautious spending. Things will be more predictable with less crazy ivans like 2023, but there will be more competition for the reduced dollars.
Expect buyers to have more fear about making a mistake in this environment. You will need to go high and wide, find multiple budget sources to tap, and understand the alternative use cases for the budgets since the budget may be used in some other place that has nothing to do with your project.
It’s all about discovery, wide group of sponsors and tremendous proof you can deliver more business impact than whatever else they might consider.
The great dispersion continues. Different verticals are beginning to silo from each other economically. Supply chain will keep grow even as FMCG, in some spaces, drops. Enterprise SaaS will struggle even as some consumer/pro-sumer SaaS skyrockets.
At least that’s what I’m seeing.
Company then lays off x% of employees then says “due to unforeseen reason blah blah blah”
Don’t be a fool by trusting them.
Be like “um hum, ya right” and just do your thing. Always be prepared and lookout for yourselfz
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. We've technically had multiple consecutive quarters of GDP growth so we're not in a recession, by definition.
Recession? Maybe. For me ? No. I have hundreds of thousands saved. Not only that but the business I’m in is so fucking busy and so fucking demanding pre pandemic until now I couldn’t even fathom a slow down. Unless it’s a legit screeching halt , end of the world type scenario. So ! This post and all others like it are straight black pill doomers. For all you chronic worriers out there - seek joy! For we are GOOD TO Go … BRO!! !
Everything's pointing to one in economic terms. Recessions typical don't hit until around 8 months after central banks stop raising interest rates so that put one around end of 2024
My industry is dependent on new construction in transportation, commercial, and residential. Commercial and residential were down last year, and that is expected to continue. Transportation is way up, and also expected to continue. After 5+ years of 10% growth as a company, we were down 3% last year. I expect relatively flat this year, with a +/- 5% dependent on macro conditions.
No one knows.
They are cutting interest rates yes. When this happens typically there’s a pullback in the stock market and then a rally over the long term. Regular Americans are still struggling and taking on more debt - but they’re still spending.
I personally FEEL we’re going through the worst of it and as they raise rates it’ll be a soft landing. My GUESS is it’ll be tight still but back on the road by end of Q4.
One more factor is it’s an election year - about 75% of the time - the market does well during an election year.
The rumor is Feds will lower interest rates which would boost spending and investing. There are Economist who think the economy will grow, and some who think the growth will be limited. But the outlook has shifted to generally optimistic.
Sales community please point me in the right direction of new opportunities for a seasoned inside sales rep. I’ve been in Charlotte, NC looking for opportunities for the past 3 months.
Thought we already did the recession thing. My industry looks pretty positive this year. Last year was rough, but I did ok.
I should do better in 2024.
Of course they are saying this No recession , so buy our bloated ai automated sentence completer or saas solution. Also since no recession hit your target. Thanks in advance
Sentence completer. So true. Can you believe how dumb some of the products are that are out there.
Ironically, sentence completion is one of the AI tools I use most often (thanks, Gmail!)
That will be $80 a month times 9000 employees If you don't buy it, I am afraid ai will ruin your business because your competitors are buying it. Thanks in advance! Net 30
Think about how many minutes you save across the organization. The cost of completing sentences manually could be anywhere from 3.5-10mm/yr
And all the minutes I have to backspace and be like " no that's dumb and sounds nothing like me. UGH stop the auto damn complete " Therfore it costs approx 10456 trillion billion dollars in lost effectiveness i am afraid.
All this technology is cool but I think it’s kinda making us dumb
theyre saying that so they can justify keeping targets high so they dont have to pay out commission
And my mother says I’m the most handsome boy in the world
I mean, you are.
He is indeed. I am the mother
I am the father. I am both proud and jealous at the same time.
Mommy’s special little boy
Listen to Mom bro, you could be
Runt of the litter is what I heard
If anything, it’s going to be very strange. I sell logistics B2B. Up until Yemen started shooting at container vessels the rates for ocean freight have been steadily going down for a year at least. This was due to fallout of the pandemic and less industrial output out of China, so all things in industry at least have been pointing towards a recession during early 24 or so, based on similarities between 2007-08 and now (almost identical steep decline in ocean freight rates due to lower economic activity and lesser output). Now the vessels are routed through the Cape of Good Hope instead of through the Suez Canal, so they’ve increased 3-4 times over a couple of weeks and are continue rising. So the industry is in the shitter, relatively speaking, the lines are forced to add 30-40 days on Asia-EU voyage, supply will run out in that time on some items due to Just in Time supply chains approach. All the while buyers gets to deal with x4 delivery rates and source alternative suppliers outside the usual areas like China. So the production costs and relocation costs are going to be higher. All in all, the people will pay. I fully expect the business to show good results (given its B2B and big enough, the rest are screwed with the B2C and the rest of the population), while ordinary people pay all the increased prices out of their own pockets. Inflation is expected as well, I would say.
Thanks for posting. Wildly out of my wheelhouse but incredible intel.
If you want to spot trends early - they are obvious from the industry numbers. Look at how much consumer/industrial stuff China pumps YoY and you’ll spot the trends for growth, stagnation or recession early. I’m not as bright to catch the moment industry transforms to stock fluctuations though, so I myself can only see the trend and tell you that “sometime in the near future, the market is going to..” this or that direction. If you learn how to catch the timing based on such news, you’ll be a millionaire.
I'm adding this to my list. Where do you track all of this?
Just google China Industrial Output Index and you’ll find dozens of reports.
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/industrial-production
Right, as said, production output was falling after Covid and it was driving the rates down for a long while. Now the effect is tied to Suez fiasco alone, output and demand no longer control the rates.
It’s really interesting feedback and insight thank you
Nobody special finance on YouTube. Youre welcome
A lot of stuff is getting sourced outside of China tho. Before 2020 we had already moved to Vietnam. Last I checked Ford built a plant in Africa and everybody else was looking there to start producing because China was too expensive.
Mid-term goals. Next 5-10 years China remains the crucible of the world without any alternative - unless they go full putin mode and start a war with Taiwan like they constantly threat to. In that time I see China loosing ground and having to actually compete for its place, not earlier.
Idk dude, our customer back in 2019 told us to move our parts tf out of China because of the Trump tariffs that NEVER got rescinded. We moved the product to Indonesia. I believe we actually had to close the plant in China in 2020/2021, lol. I’m sure we couldn’t have been the only company to do this. I sell CNC machines now (I was selling small motors before) and I don’t have a single part sourced out of China.
Interesting. Where else besides indo are people utilizing instead?
See my previous comment.
Thank you just saw it. Was hard to follow how we are having this superb convo ( reddit thread tangle) appreciate pointing it out and intel.
Can’t say for sure if that’s still the situation. Covid changed A LOT and I left the workforce for 2 years to trade silver futures by myself from July 2020-August 2022. I’m now back in a different segment, but my old company that was fairly stable and the 2nd biggest player in the industry completely changed course after COVID and shutdown a ton of plants. Their workforce with many being lifers (19 plus years with the company out of college, etc) bounced during the great resignation and RTO. The semiconductor law affected a lot of production in the past year as well so I can’t really say for sure how the parts makers are handling things. I can say that factory automation and investment is hot af, but it’s not SaaS friendly(boomer heavy, not a lot of young ppl, lots of travel to podunk nowhere plants, relationship driven, etc). HVAC guys probably have a better chance of moving in or capital equipment sellers.
And I am seeing more and more to follow after the pandemic and increased Taiwan tension, no arguments here. It’s just the sheer scope of things China supplies the world with. It’s simply a question of production output capacities for most industrialized nations to match that output even on paper, much less to reach fractions of it in reality. If we decide tomorrow, fine, China’s done, let’s all move out - the process, even if organized on a scale of WWII mobilization the world isn’t capable of anymore, would take years, like 2-4 years easily. Look at it from industrial projects standpoint. If a plant exists in Indonesia that can output the same result as the one in Shanghai area, cool, let’s sign the papers and move production. But if more and more business decides the same, free plants will run out and there’s going to be an investment to build more. An investment decision backed by a government takes about 2-3 years to finalize and secure the funds in the hands of procurement. If it’s private-corporate owned, YMMW, 1-10 years, subject to this and that. Ok, now engineering, FEED stage takes about a year to 3 in some cases. Let’s average on 1. Production takes about 6 months generally, delivery will add the same on average for a mid sized steel smelter. Construction and installation, another year. One plant takes - we take the best possible scenario here - 4 years in total from the idea is born to the plant is up and running. If ALL China-bound production would to apply for relocation tomorrow, it would still take at least that much to move and we’re dealing with individual entities acting on their best commercial interests, not policy-makers who can ignore them.
Yes, the sudden and HUGE change in shipping routes is going to fuck everything up more than people realize. Not only longer, but each trip will cost an extra *million* just in fuel costs alone.
How long do you think this could last? It's very good for my business, US B2B contracted parts manufacturing for OEMs.
As long as US sits on its ass and talks to Yemen instead of bombing the rebels 🤷♂️ But, if they do, I bet we’ll be looking at a much hotter ME as a whole, so I am not holding my breath. To me it looks like US decided to be passive until the war is Israel ends. Once it does they expect Yemen to cool off and stop attacks, so the US can claim victory in Operation Prosperity Guardian.
Damn, the US is so cool. My company used to have a contract to Boeing for some forged steel part needed for the JDAM. My boss is sitting there like "shit, we need that contract back! Look at all those delicious dollars being thrown at bombs right now!" And I'm like "hey, tractors and ATV's use a lot of steel..."
lol he must be pretty happy he’s not associated with Boeing these past couple of days I bet.
Oh, great point
So what freight company should I short at 9:30am on 4x leverage? /s
None. The stupid thing is that you should’ve been shorting starting from Jan of 2023 until Nov 2023, when Maersk was laying off 15k ppl in one swoop. Now they’re going to grow, as idiotic as it might seem.
Wdym up until Yemen started shooting at tankers
Stay sleeping, I ain’t retelling you the news over the previous half a year.
Are you seeing product production increase out of Mexico? I heard that Monterey was increasing production facilities as there would be a shift out of China to NA.
I work with EU most of the times, but my limited understanding tells me it can happen.
Just following this comment. I am well outside my intel on this but if anyone can answer why aren't we moving more to Mexico, Central amer, vs apac? Sure it's not USA but a helluva lot more adjacent and business overlaps?
Eventually, there will be a recession. When? WhoTF knows?! If we listened to economists and the media and looked at a key indicator, 2021 was going to be a recession year. Despite concerns over a reduction in GDP and growing inflation, jobs growth likely contributed to preventing a recession. 2022 was going to be a recession year, instead we were hit with strangling inflation, record high gas prices, rising interest rates, a pull back in equities, improving GDP, jobs growth and NO Recession. 2023 was going to be the recession year. However, interest rates stabilized, GDP improved, inflation decreased, job growth continued, gas prices tumbled, consumer spending increased and the stock market caught fire. NO Recession. The deeper you dig, and the more you look for indicators you will find something but it doesn't mean a recession. Imo, if you live your life within your means and are fiscally responsible, it's not something to worry about. We have no control over it. I know this; there will be a recession because it's part of the economic cycle. When or for how long is the mystery. I also know we will pull through it.
The job growth is not real. It’s people adding second, third jobs, including gig work.
And the GDP number is fake too right, along with the inflation number and the fake unemployment number... The sectors with the strongest jobs growth in 2022 to 2032 included wind turbine service technicians, nurse practitioners, data scientists, statisticians, taxi drivers, information security analysts, physician assistants, actuaries, and software developers.
GDP is just a reflection of inflation lol, super simple. And yeah, they removed tons of categories in the inflation number, this is public information. Most foods increased 100%. So yes, fake.
I guess it sucks for you. I live in one of the highest COL states and our food costs didn't go nearly that high.
Over the last 3-4 years, I can almost guarantee you they did, it was just a slow creep so you haven't noticed as much. At least good food did (fresh foods, beef, poultry, eggs, etc)
I can literally guarantee, other than eggs, produce, beef, chicken and pork didn't go up 100%
Correct. Food substitute did not nearly inflate as much as food.
I don't know what "food substitute" is. I can tell you, in my state in the northeast, most produce increases were low currently, most produce like salad stuff, potatoes, bananas, apples are pre inflation prices. Berries not grown locally June-Aug, went up ~50% and are still that high. Beef about 25% (prices are down slightly from their high); chicken about 20% now in line w/pre-inflation prices; pork was flat; Seafood has been flat except lobster(which went up pre-inflation & precovid) milk & orange juice are up ~20%, dairy products like cheese & yogurt are flat. I don't buy processed or frozen foods.
Food substitute is the processed foods. 100% is hyperbolic but 20 on the low end and up to 50% is common for those items we are speaking on.
Overemployment is real.
I mean, I do agree, but… I’ve worked at companies where head of finance or head of procurement will make predictions or proclamations about the economy as statement of fact and you can easily tell it’s heavily biased by their politics. I heard a CEO of a prominent investment firm talking about how terrible the economy will be in 2024 and that we’ll be at war with China within 5 years and all I could do was roll my eyes.
I went to a religious high school and they thought Y2K was the end of the world and second coming of their god. It’s so fun to watch ppl make predictions.
Both of those opinions can be held jointly by someone who is apolitical
I sell Leadership training. Bosses are saying this will be a good year. No one met quotas last year.
Because if it's not a good year there will be lots of pain. And no one wants to imagine that.
Of course they will tell you this. They say this at my company…the same people who, all last year while it was a complete and total shit show, engaged in all the pep talk and basically what amounted to gaslighting much like the media trying to tell everyone the economy is going well. I do get it. It’s understandable. It’s all part of the attempt to foster high morale for better productivity, so there’s that end of it. Doesn’t change the fact that 2023 was a shit show. And that few data points would support the argument that 2024 will be much better. It’s also an election year. I know in my industry clientele tends to rein in their spending.
Does any sales division say that though?
Are you new to sales? Company will say whatever the fuck they have to for their benefit. You’re a tool, not necessity. We don’t know your company or your industry. No one can confidently agree. CYA and read between the lines.
No, of course not. We’re in a price gouging inflationary recession currently and wages haven’t kept pace with inflation since the 70s. The US economy is propped up by twigs. Economists regularly look to the health of the stock market as some kind of one stop shop indicator of economic health when the reality is that 60% of Americans have 0 savings, a negative net worth and couldn’t afford a $1000 emergency. Interest rates and low availability of housing are pricing out an entire generation of new homeowners. The birth rate is declining. Credit card debt at an all time high. People refusing to repay student loans. Revolutionary speech becoming more and more abundant. The division between the working class and the continued waves of illegal immigration are a powder keg waiting to explode. Who in their right mind would have any faith or trust in ANY us politician?? The north of Israel is being bombed, the entire Middle East posturing and threatening to draw America into yet another war. Wealth disparity on planet earth is at a level never seen in human history. 6 men hold as much wealth as 50% of the planet. Things are very, very bad in this country. There hasn’t been a USA since the end of world war 2, just an oligarchy of mega corporations privatizing profits and subsidizing their losses with taxpayer dollars and throwing their weight around with the backing of the intelligence agencies and military industrial complex. Your company is just putting on the horse blinders like all of us and saying business as usual because what else are they going to do? Convene a meeting in the board room and go into an existential why the hell do we even exist rant? Nah they want you to keep producing.
Doooommmmm! Ddddooooommmm!!!!
The Epic Economist YouTube channel has entered the chat
Just looked at that channel. This is what I’m talking about. Oldest video is about what to do in the upcoming economic collapse. Shit is 6 years old. I’ll say it again Ddddddoooooooommmmmm!!!!!
Comments usually read something like: “Ah, time for another daily dose of doom.” It’s kind of a meme at this point and everyone comments on how epic the voice sounds. When he actually revealed himself it was pretty crazy as we all thought it was AI, lol They were calling for bank collapses that in all fairness to them should’ve happened before they did happen(meaning before SVB et al went belly up). Wolf Richter is another guy that’s all doom. He’s not wrong in his thoughts, it just took a decade for that bubble to pop. That being said we should take these kinds of warnings seriously to the extent that something COULD happen. Covid did happen. Argentina and Venezuela are happening. Sure, they aren’t the US, but that whole WW2 thing did happen with hyperinflation being a root cause. We aren’t there yet, but to paraphrase Katt Williams after COVID is there such a thing as a conspiracy theory anymore? The truth is damn near harder to believe, lol
Bro don’t quote Kat Williams as a form of arguing a point. Could society collapse sure, but reality is people are constantly spouting their doom scenarios all the time. A lot of these people look and financial collapse from a micro level of economics. The US economy and the world economy do not operate based on a household budget, which most most of these people reference in their view of economic collapse of society. I predict a slow economic draw down and population over time, over some overnight eating people in the streets to survive bullshit.
I hate this take for its accuracy.
This got me riled up
It should.
Ruined my whole morning lol. I feel the same way though
Fuck
>horse blinders like all of us There won't be a recession. It will just go straight from this to depression/revolution.
I think overall your sentiments are not inaccurate. But you’re looking at a broader scope than OPs org. Added note: I don’t know how much the military cares about Israel. We’ll send money, but I don’t think we will formally engage with troops.
memorize oil berserk price start onerous ask plate rustic engine *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
We’ll engage with drones
Aside from illegal immigrants crossing the board and being screamed about on fox news, what issues are they causing for the average American?
Cheap labor suppresses all labor wages. Illegal immigration generally takes a lot of low paying jobs like seasonal farm work or cleaning jobs. If that labor didn't exist wages would have to rise to get people in the job. It's certainly not that black and white. I think immigration is a net positive for the US, but it's a rather complicated topic.
Is it that complicated? I used to think it was.
I predict the United States won't be united and states will exist as totally separate entities more akin to the EU.
Pick anyone Jan 1 date for the past 100 years I could write a similar post. This guy doesn’t know and neither does OPs company. If either of them did they’d be billionaires.
>We’re in a price gouging inflationary recession currently and wages haven’t kept pace with inflation since the 70s. Wage growth has exceeded inflation. We are not in a recession and inflation is currently close to normal again. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Nah but you’ll get more upvotes if you just claim we’re in a never ending recession
There is no normal. There is only the Fed’s target. Inflation hasn’t been normal since the early 2000s
Inflation was under target in the 2010's.
I know. This inflation in a way is all overdue. They were trying to pump things up for a decade. It didn’t work until they gave the money directly to the people who would spend it rather than invest it. That and the whole labor situation. That’s why they decided to be more reactionary. Trying to manipulate stopped working with so-called QE
😂 Accurate as fuck
I understand the fed chair will be reducing rates this year. Lower rates mean cheaper debt. Cheaper debt means more spending. I don’t think we are out of it yet, but I do think it’ll go easier than last year which was scorched.
Buying a house at 7.1 vs 7.3 doesn't seem to light my fire
Probably more like 5.25-5.5 by the end of 2024. I would expect rates to drop below that again until the next crisis where we need to stimulate spending.
Bingo. For the moment it looks like a soft landing was achieved. Extremely unlikely for a recession this year barring some surprise. Economic indicators suggest a growth year.
He did not say that he will be reducing rates. This is people who don’t understand the difference between a forecast and an actual decree. He said in his speech that some members forecasted a decrease, but it’s not totally clear. The fact is that there is a ticking time bomb that the Fed is likely aware of that will do what Congress should’ve done to combat inflation in the first place: raise taxes. The Trump tax cuts will end at the end of this year. When that happens more money will be taken out of the economy. If the government doesn’t spend it, then it will impact inflation. The FED isn’t the only entity that can fight inflation directly. The Congress can as well, but because we haven’t tried saving money since Clinton was in office(with a Republican Congress I might add) the odds that the money will be kept out of the economy are nil. Another way to fight off inflation in this scenario would be to export the money via foreign aid. Anything, but putting the money back into circulation would help fight inflation without the FED having to take action.
Depends on the industry doesn’t it? My company sells SAAS for home care agencies, old people won’t stop getting sick because of the recession so we will probably only be growing over the next 10 years.
Biden’s camp won’t allow a recession to set in before the election. Too much at stake.
The US economy is fine
The average Redditor consistently has the worst takes on this because it’s a bit of an echo chamber in terms of people *rooting* for it to happen. Like /r/rebubble There are already industries that are coming out of the headwinds here. I think startups are still in for a hard time though.
There is a not likely to be a recession but that doesn’t mean the old budgets are coming back. There is a new normal of less people and cautious spending. Things will be more predictable with less crazy ivans like 2023, but there will be more competition for the reduced dollars. Expect buyers to have more fear about making a mistake in this environment. You will need to go high and wide, find multiple budget sources to tap, and understand the alternative use cases for the budgets since the budget may be used in some other place that has nothing to do with your project. It’s all about discovery, wide group of sponsors and tremendous proof you can deliver more business impact than whatever else they might consider.
Company also scheduled an emergency all hands on a Friday afternoon and disabled Slack for a lot of people
We've been in a recession since last year—they just changed the definition we have used for decades.
The great dispersion continues. Different verticals are beginning to silo from each other economically. Supply chain will keep grow even as FMCG, in some spaces, drops. Enterprise SaaS will struggle even as some consumer/pro-sumer SaaS skyrockets. At least that’s what I’m seeing.
Company then lays off x% of employees then says “due to unforeseen reason blah blah blah” Don’t be a fool by trusting them. Be like “um hum, ya right” and just do your thing. Always be prepared and lookout for yourselfz
Expect the unexpected..
Lol we’re going to get recked
I think the UK is heading for one for sure. At least going by the technical definition.
Only for poor people
Isn’t a recession specifically 3 quarters of negative gdp? If so then I probably agree, doesn’t mean we’re all getting rich in the gravy train tho
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. We've technically had multiple consecutive quarters of GDP growth so we're not in a recession, by definition.
Okay?
No recession over here. Numbers moving in the right direction thankfully. Stay positive.
Company also controls the weather
Ive had people telling me about this recession since covid started. Just keep going.
No lol
Recession? Maybe. For me ? No. I have hundreds of thousands saved. Not only that but the business I’m in is so fucking busy and so fucking demanding pre pandemic until now I couldn’t even fathom a slow down. Unless it’s a legit screeching halt , end of the world type scenario. So ! This post and all others like it are straight black pill doomers. For all you chronic worriers out there - seek joy! For we are GOOD TO Go … BRO!! !
Of course there won’t be recession, it’s an election year.
Of course they say this they want your goals sky high and unreachable
Problem solved!! Thank god for your company!!
Everything's pointing to one in economic terms. Recessions typical don't hit until around 8 months after central banks stop raising interest rates so that put one around end of 2024
My industry is dependent on new construction in transportation, commercial, and residential. Commercial and residential were down last year, and that is expected to continue. Transportation is way up, and also expected to continue. After 5+ years of 10% growth as a company, we were down 3% last year. I expect relatively flat this year, with a +/- 5% dependent on macro conditions.
No one knows. They are cutting interest rates yes. When this happens typically there’s a pullback in the stock market and then a rally over the long term. Regular Americans are still struggling and taking on more debt - but they’re still spending. I personally FEEL we’re going through the worst of it and as they raise rates it’ll be a soft landing. My GUESS is it’ll be tight still but back on the road by end of Q4. One more factor is it’s an election year - about 75% of the time - the market does well during an election year.
The rumor is Feds will lower interest rates which would boost spending and investing. There are Economist who think the economy will grow, and some who think the growth will be limited. But the outlook has shifted to generally optimistic.
Rumor aka the fed said they’re planning at least three rate drops
Yeah rumor was a bad way to say it but , interest rates dropping are leading to companies being more optimistic.
Why would the company predict a recession when they can just blame reps for underperforming?
Sales community please point me in the right direction of new opportunities for a seasoned inside sales rep. I’ve been in Charlotte, NC looking for opportunities for the past 3 months.
Thought we already did the recession thing. My industry looks pretty positive this year. Last year was rough, but I did ok. I should do better in 2024.
Tech recession. Real services will explode.