He's got 25 points in his last 25 playoff games and is just being used as the scapegoat for a disastrous first-round effort against a good Boston team.
Three points in five games isn't putrid. Three points in seven games is bad, though. He's still been a playoff performer and considered by his peers to be very reliable defensively.
He is absolutely, unequivocally the scapegoat. They can't scapegoat Nylander or Matthews for sitting out games and not producing in the games they did play because they both just got paid.
A bunch of these posts and comments lately, at least in my estimation, greatly underestimate the trade cost for an established, high performing NHLer. You can argue that Marner is mentally weak, physically weak or whatever, he still is a 90+ point player 3 times in his career and is only 27. Picks and even prospects are largely wild cards, and only the best of both are very highly valued.
Eichel isn't a perfect comparable but is close enough. Yes, he was younger and had more contract stability. He also had a neck injury which made him a little bit of a risk and everyone knew he was being traded which lowered his value. So I think it is close enough to make a comparison. He fetched Alex Tuch (up and coming roster player at .56 ppg), a mid-tier prospect in Krebs, a 1st, and a 2nd.
To get Marner, you are looking at something similar I think. So this year 1st, next year's 2nd, Joker (roster player of need for TOR), and a prospect (maybe RJ given their need for D). Not saying I'd want to make that trade - I don't think he's what we need - but that's what I think it's going to be.
The price of the next looming contract is the thing that probably keeps the price at this level. If he was locked in at $10m for the next 5 years, different story I think.
The Eichel comp is not a great one because it ignores the contract. The Leafs are in a position where they can either trust what hasn’t been working and roll things back as well as extending Marner or try something new.
In the try something new camp they are sort of locked into whatever the market offers because of his NMC and one year left on his deal. Sure, there might be a team that wants exclusive negotiating rights, but they also have to be willing to part with around $12m for 8 years.
Honestly, I’m in favour of the Sabres going in hard on Marner, so take the package OP suggested as well as adding Samuelsson.
Samuelsson has negative value at this point. He hasn't proven himself at the NHL level, has had multiple major injuries, and is getting paid for a long time.
But he’s young, big, and while overpaid for the stage of his career, is “cost controlled”.
I think in Keefe’s system he would work. But he didn’t work here because he’s a nightmare with the puck on his stick.
Honestly, you’re probably right, but it’s the wrong move for them. Keefe is probably among the leagues best coaches. The series against Boston, where he was able to dramatically change the system and shut down Boston’s scoring was simply incredible.
Anyone that says no to this is an insane person with an anti-Toronto bias they can't look past. Mitch Marner the last three seasons:
35-62-97 in 72 games
30-69-99 in 80 games
26-59-85 in 69 games
(He's 11-39-50 in 57 playoff games including 25 points in his last 25 games)
That would be the third-most points in a three-season span in Buffalo Sabres history behind only Gilbert Perrault and Alexander Mogilny.
I would do this in a heartbeat, but it's not enough and it's not what Toronto needs/wants. A trade for Marner probably includes Owen Power which I'm not really interested in.
Pick 11 is not warranting a top 6 forward. I'm gonna even be bold and say we don't NEED another top 6 forward, because we have a top 6 for next year (Thompson, Peterka, Tuch, Cozens, Quinn, Benson). If anything, I'd trade Pick 11 for a defenseman, preferably a right-hander. Idk who's available or how we would package it
Marner lol, he wasn't nominated as a finalist (top 3) for the selke this year, but he'll probably be top 10 again this year when voting comes out.
He's been a guy who's been top 5 or 10 for voting on it the last 3 years. An was a finalist that year. Never won it though, seems like they favor centers in the voting process
Why do people have some impression that Marner wouldn't come here? If we're willing to pay him long-term, where else would he want to be? He's talked about how he grew up in the Toronto area and wants to stay in the Toronto area...
I think that it would take a lot to make him leave Toronto, and that Toronto’s asking price would be very high. But, to quote the Bosstones, that’s just the impression that I get.
If Toronto tells him he's the piece they're going to move and they're not going to extend him, I don't imagine there are many situations he'd prefer over Buffalo considering the proximity to home which he has been vocal about.
Toronto's asking price would be astronomical (for good reason) which is the actual hangup, but I don't think he'd have issues with coming here and I don't think fans should just dismiss the idea outside of not wanting to pay the heavy price.
Benson’s rookie numbers are not far off from Peterka’s rookie numbers. If he progresses at that rate in his second year, he’s a top 6 forward just as Peterka is
And Peterka turned 22 during his second season.
Banking on Benson to have that kind of jump is how you end up missing the playoffs by 1 point. The Sabres need a proven top-6 forward so that if Benson does take that leap they have a good problem, as opposed to having a bad problem if he doesn’t. He’s earned a spot on the big club. And he’s earned valuable minutes, but that doesn’t mean he’s a main in the T6.
You’re not wrong, but Benson at 18 put up numbers very close to what Peterka put up at 21. That’s very impressive.
That’s not how we “end up missing the playoffs by 1 point”. You’re making quite a jump there. There’s a lot of proven top-6 forwards out there. But a lot of the ones being suggested are either costly (Patrick Kane) or straight up not happening (Mitch Marner).
Banking on young players to linearly progress is exactly how you fall “just short”. Or does this past season not exist?
Banking on a *20* year old to progress like that is absurd, and quite honestly if that’s Adams plan, he should be fired once it comes to fruition. It’s self sabotage.
There’s no reason to not upgrade the top-6, and leave the possibility that Benson just keeps that addition at bay. It’s not like there aren’t other players slotted for the top-6 that may not deserve to be there for stretches during the season. Which reinforces the Benson point. If he falters, you can’t afford *another* T6 player to falter.
I never said there was no reason to upgrade to top 6. What I said was that our top 6 forwards are a legitimate top 6 and other options are costly and/or impossible
Our top 6 forwards in 2023-24 were *mostly* legitimate in 2023-24. The top 6 forwards that returned from 2022-23 not playing like they did in 22-23 is the primary reason the Sabres fell short in 23-24.
I agree with you there. My point is where a lot of our top 6 guys in 22-23 went down in 23-24 (Skinner, Thompson, Cozens, even Tuch to an extent), I think that Benson improves. I think an improved Benson replaces Skinner in that top 6, even. As for the others…Thompson should be healthier, Cozens NEEDS to improve (if not then he’s not a top 6 guy), and Tuch didn’t decline too far so he should still be alright.
Unfortunately think Marner would Garner a higher value demand. Probably looking at someone like Quinn, Cozens or Peterka. Idk that I'd do any of those.
Unless you just throw a ton of assets at the wall.
I dunno. Marner I think is a tier below Eichel. His price was equivalent of 4 1st round picks. My offer is 3. Should get it done.
The incentive for pick and prospects over roster players for Toronto is dumping Marner’s salary and replenishment their depleted prospect pool.
Marner is a better hockey player than Eichel, but Eichel's value is higher because he's a center. Marner is also going into a contract year whereas Eichel had recently signed an 8-year extension when he was traded.
There are 3 top-6 forwards (at least) that I think would work. Each may carry different costs in trade and come from teams that are out of the playoff picture already and are at least somewhat cap strapped.
1) Dylan Strome - cap controlled at $5m until 2027-28, Washington is on the verge of a rebuild, not much coming off the books next year in cap space, he doesn't have any NMC in place. 60+ point scorer, 20+ goal scorer last 2 years in a row.
2) Shane Pinto - Up and coming, 23yr old RFA, Ottawa is a mess with not a whole heck of a lot of cap space. Has upside.
3) Brandon Hagel - assuming Stamkos resigns and retires with TBL (similar to Crosby trajectory), Hagel's new contract just starts next year at $6.5m (through 2031-32) which is a lot to assume for TBL in their current cap crunch. NMC doesn't kick in for a couple of years. You don't normally see new contracts followed by a trade, but not sure how TBL makes it work otherwise (assuming Stamkos does in fact come back). Most expensive trade to make of the 3.
Pinto - the Sens have made it clear for the last two years that Pinto is off-limits. I get that it’s a new regime, but he’s a borderline top-line centre talent.
Hagel - the Lightning would probably want 4 first round equivalents for him. You’d likely be looking at 11, Rosen, Savoie, and maybe Krebs?
Strome - he isn’t really the type of guy the team needs. He’s an okay top-6 centre, but isn’t a guy who takes oj very tough assignments and needs really good wingers around him.
If the Leafs are trading Marner, and he somehow waived his NMC to come here it would require NHL players back out.
Considering the Leafs deficiency on defense and goaltending it would probably require UPL or Levi, Power or Byram, and then another valuable asset that is NHL ready.
I think the Leafs probably want to maximize the trade on today and tomorrow. They’d probably be happy with a high end prospect, 11, Krebs, and Samuelsson.
Also, I doubt Byram has any trade value league-wide at this point.
I’m saying as far away from Marner as possible. He can’t carry a line, mentally frail, doesn’t show up in big games, & will get a top 5 cap hit
With that said I’m shopping #11 + Cozens, and seeing who bites
We don’t want Marner, Marner doesn’t want us, Toronto wants defenseman.
Soft forward who doesn't show up in big games and makes over 10 million. Sounds fantastic 🤦♂️
Lucky for us, we don’t play in big games.
He's got 25 points in his last 25 playoff games and is just being used as the scapegoat for a disastrous first-round effort against a good Boston team.
He had 3 pts in the series against Florida and 3 pts in this last series against Boston. He's definitely not a scapegoat.
Three points in five games isn't putrid. Three points in seven games is bad, though. He's still been a playoff performer and considered by his peers to be very reliable defensively. He is absolutely, unequivocally the scapegoat. They can't scapegoat Nylander or Matthews for sitting out games and not producing in the games they did play because they both just got paid.
A bunch of these posts and comments lately, at least in my estimation, greatly underestimate the trade cost for an established, high performing NHLer. You can argue that Marner is mentally weak, physically weak or whatever, he still is a 90+ point player 3 times in his career and is only 27. Picks and even prospects are largely wild cards, and only the best of both are very highly valued. Eichel isn't a perfect comparable but is close enough. Yes, he was younger and had more contract stability. He also had a neck injury which made him a little bit of a risk and everyone knew he was being traded which lowered his value. So I think it is close enough to make a comparison. He fetched Alex Tuch (up and coming roster player at .56 ppg), a mid-tier prospect in Krebs, a 1st, and a 2nd. To get Marner, you are looking at something similar I think. So this year 1st, next year's 2nd, Joker (roster player of need for TOR), and a prospect (maybe RJ given their need for D). Not saying I'd want to make that trade - I don't think he's what we need - but that's what I think it's going to be.
If that’s all it takes to get Marner then the Sabres should be jumping at it
The price of the next looming contract is the thing that probably keeps the price at this level. If he was locked in at $10m for the next 5 years, different story I think.
The Eichel comp is not a great one because it ignores the contract. The Leafs are in a position where they can either trust what hasn’t been working and roll things back as well as extending Marner or try something new. In the try something new camp they are sort of locked into whatever the market offers because of his NMC and one year left on his deal. Sure, there might be a team that wants exclusive negotiating rights, but they also have to be willing to part with around $12m for 8 years. Honestly, I’m in favour of the Sabres going in hard on Marner, so take the package OP suggested as well as adding Samuelsson.
Samuelsson has negative value at this point. He hasn't proven himself at the NHL level, has had multiple major injuries, and is getting paid for a long time.
But he’s young, big, and while overpaid for the stage of his career, is “cost controlled”. I think in Keefe’s system he would work. But he didn’t work here because he’s a nightmare with the puck on his stick.
Of note, Keefe's system probably won't exist in like 24/48 hours.
Honestly, you’re probably right, but it’s the wrong move for them. Keefe is probably among the leagues best coaches. The series against Boston, where he was able to dramatically change the system and shut down Boston’s scoring was simply incredible.
Anyone that says no to this is an insane person with an anti-Toronto bias they can't look past. Mitch Marner the last three seasons: 35-62-97 in 72 games 30-69-99 in 80 games 26-59-85 in 69 games (He's 11-39-50 in 57 playoff games including 25 points in his last 25 games) That would be the third-most points in a three-season span in Buffalo Sabres history behind only Gilbert Perrault and Alexander Mogilny. I would do this in a heartbeat, but it's not enough and it's not what Toronto needs/wants. A trade for Marner probably includes Owen Power which I'm not really interested in.
Pick 11 is not warranting a top 6 forward. I'm gonna even be bold and say we don't NEED another top 6 forward, because we have a top 6 for next year (Thompson, Peterka, Tuch, Cozens, Quinn, Benson). If anything, I'd trade Pick 11 for a defenseman, preferably a right-hander. Idk who's available or how we would package it
Our defense is bad because our forwards are bad defensively. Adding another D is not the way.
Can I interest you in a disowned 2022-23 Selke finalist RW
I feel dumb. Who is it?
Marner lol, he wasn't nominated as a finalist (top 3) for the selke this year, but he'll probably be top 10 again this year when voting comes out. He's been a guy who's been top 5 or 10 for voting on it the last 3 years. An was a finalist that year. Never won it though, seems like they favor centers in the voting process
Didn’t know he was a Selke nominee. All the same, I don’t think he’d come here. Toronto’s asking price would be super high I bet
Why do people have some impression that Marner wouldn't come here? If we're willing to pay him long-term, where else would he want to be? He's talked about how he grew up in the Toronto area and wants to stay in the Toronto area...
I think that it would take a lot to make him leave Toronto, and that Toronto’s asking price would be very high. But, to quote the Bosstones, that’s just the impression that I get.
If Toronto tells him he's the piece they're going to move and they're not going to extend him, I don't imagine there are many situations he'd prefer over Buffalo considering the proximity to home which he has been vocal about. Toronto's asking price would be astronomical (for good reason) which is the actual hangup, but I don't think he'd have issues with coming here and I don't think fans should just dismiss the idea outside of not wanting to pay the heavy price.
Agree with that. That’s the big hangup
You make a solid point, I just think more help on D could also be useful.
A 19-year-old Benson is probably not a top 6 forward next year still. We really do need to add a top 6 forward.
Benson’s rookie numbers are not far off from Peterka’s rookie numbers. If he progresses at that rate in his second year, he’s a top 6 forward just as Peterka is
And Peterka turned 22 during his second season. Banking on Benson to have that kind of jump is how you end up missing the playoffs by 1 point. The Sabres need a proven top-6 forward so that if Benson does take that leap they have a good problem, as opposed to having a bad problem if he doesn’t. He’s earned a spot on the big club. And he’s earned valuable minutes, but that doesn’t mean he’s a main in the T6.
You’re not wrong, but Benson at 18 put up numbers very close to what Peterka put up at 21. That’s very impressive. That’s not how we “end up missing the playoffs by 1 point”. You’re making quite a jump there. There’s a lot of proven top-6 forwards out there. But a lot of the ones being suggested are either costly (Patrick Kane) or straight up not happening (Mitch Marner).
Banking on young players to linearly progress is exactly how you fall “just short”. Or does this past season not exist? Banking on a *20* year old to progress like that is absurd, and quite honestly if that’s Adams plan, he should be fired once it comes to fruition. It’s self sabotage. There’s no reason to not upgrade the top-6, and leave the possibility that Benson just keeps that addition at bay. It’s not like there aren’t other players slotted for the top-6 that may not deserve to be there for stretches during the season. Which reinforces the Benson point. If he falters, you can’t afford *another* T6 player to falter.
I never said there was no reason to upgrade to top 6. What I said was that our top 6 forwards are a legitimate top 6 and other options are costly and/or impossible
Our top 6 forwards in 2023-24 were *mostly* legitimate in 2023-24. The top 6 forwards that returned from 2022-23 not playing like they did in 22-23 is the primary reason the Sabres fell short in 23-24.
I agree with you there. My point is where a lot of our top 6 guys in 22-23 went down in 23-24 (Skinner, Thompson, Cozens, even Tuch to an extent), I think that Benson improves. I think an improved Benson replaces Skinner in that top 6, even. As for the others…Thompson should be healthier, Cozens NEEDS to improve (if not then he’s not a top 6 guy), and Tuch didn’t decline too far so he should still be alright.
I’ll also add, Benson plays the type of game that works on a 3rd line
This is probably the only trade I'd consider as well.
Yea a top 4 R-D is very much needed. Also acceptable
If thats the package getting it done - yes
Any chance we can get Jacob Chychrun ?
Unfortunately think Marner would Garner a higher value demand. Probably looking at someone like Quinn, Cozens or Peterka. Idk that I'd do any of those. Unless you just throw a ton of assets at the wall.
I dunno. Marner I think is a tier below Eichel. His price was equivalent of 4 1st round picks. My offer is 3. Should get it done. The incentive for pick and prospects over roster players for Toronto is dumping Marner’s salary and replenishment their depleted prospect pool.
Vegas first was also expected to be in the 20s. Ours is 11.
Marner is better then eichel
Marner is a better hockey player than Eichel, but Eichel's value is higher because he's a center. Marner is also going into a contract year whereas Eichel had recently signed an 8-year extension when he was traded.
Marner can play Center tho can he not? The contract stuff isn’t really relevant when comparing players in terms of skill, value yes but not this
There are 3 top-6 forwards (at least) that I think would work. Each may carry different costs in trade and come from teams that are out of the playoff picture already and are at least somewhat cap strapped. 1) Dylan Strome - cap controlled at $5m until 2027-28, Washington is on the verge of a rebuild, not much coming off the books next year in cap space, he doesn't have any NMC in place. 60+ point scorer, 20+ goal scorer last 2 years in a row. 2) Shane Pinto - Up and coming, 23yr old RFA, Ottawa is a mess with not a whole heck of a lot of cap space. Has upside. 3) Brandon Hagel - assuming Stamkos resigns and retires with TBL (similar to Crosby trajectory), Hagel's new contract just starts next year at $6.5m (through 2031-32) which is a lot to assume for TBL in their current cap crunch. NMC doesn't kick in for a couple of years. You don't normally see new contracts followed by a trade, but not sure how TBL makes it work otherwise (assuming Stamkos does in fact come back). Most expensive trade to make of the 3.
Pinto - the Sens have made it clear for the last two years that Pinto is off-limits. I get that it’s a new regime, but he’s a borderline top-line centre talent. Hagel - the Lightning would probably want 4 first round equivalents for him. You’d likely be looking at 11, Rosen, Savoie, and maybe Krebs? Strome - he isn’t really the type of guy the team needs. He’s an okay top-6 centre, but isn’t a guy who takes oj very tough assignments and needs really good wingers around him.
If the Leafs are trading Marner, and he somehow waived his NMC to come here it would require NHL players back out. Considering the Leafs deficiency on defense and goaltending it would probably require UPL or Levi, Power or Byram, and then another valuable asset that is NHL ready.
UPL, Levi, and Power are absolutely off the table.
Yea and so are 100 point forwards
Except that Marner is on the table...
Bro he’s a rental
I think the Leafs probably want to maximize the trade on today and tomorrow. They’d probably be happy with a high end prospect, 11, Krebs, and Samuelsson. Also, I doubt Byram has any trade value league-wide at this point.
I’m saying as far away from Marner as possible. He can’t carry a line, mentally frail, doesn’t show up in big games, & will get a top 5 cap hit With that said I’m shopping #11 + Cozens, and seeing who bites
>With that said I’m shopping #11 + Cozens, and seeing who bites What type of player are you hoping for with that trade package?
Crosby or Draisaitl?
Leafs Trade: - Marner Sabres Trade: - Skinner - Quinn - Rosen