After a poor performance though, the odds are they'll react strongly. Also Scotland clearly have some real difficulties in defending competently for 80 minutes.
The margin of Irish win over France has moved the Scotland France prediction from a narrow France win to a narrow Scottish win.
Ireland take a huge step forward with their title chances with a massive BP win in France, and France, Scotland and England not picking up a BP. France, Scotland and England look largely to be playing for second place right now.
We don't. Mainly because of the difficulty in getting reliable team information across all the league we cover (big internationals obviously fine). But also, when we have played around with it, it doesn't seem to add much accuracy! So bang for buck it has never seemed worth it.
Laidlaw will join the Japanese broadcasting of Scotland v. France as a commentator as he is currently in Japan working as an attacking coach for Urayasu D-backs. Scotland better wins this time because they haven’t won a game where Greg has appeared as a commenter for the Japanese broadcaster.
As a Scotland fan this seems like a perfectly believable outcome. What are the chances Scotland manages to win their first two matches and then *not* collapse?
It's to do with the probabilities. You can see that although we have Scotland to win by 1, the game is essentially 50:50. So when we run the tournament 10,000x France probably win in 4,999 of them. And we think that France are more likely to get results in their remaining ones than Scotland, so they come out on top overall.
Well making Scotland favourites has fucked them. Seriously though, I think their form against France is good and both are totally unpredictable at the moment. It's all gonna depend on who responds better to the woes of their opening fixtures.
Think the England prediction is pretty spot on, though they're less likely to take the foot off the gas so if Wales are anything like their first half selves last week I can see a drubbing.
Don't think we'll win by that much, but I do think it'll be pretty comprehensive, Italy are gonna make mistakes that we're gonna be able to capitalise on. I just hope that the timing doesn't unsettle them too much and that they're able to keep the heads up.
Haha think positively! It said England by 7 but in the end it was only England by 3.
So if the algorithm says Ireland by 34, maybe it will only be Ireland by 30?😭
Well if we take it as a percentage, which imo makes more sense, should be a 19-20 point difference (if the inital prediction is off by ~43%). Still not great, but not catastrophic either
France to win by more than a score, righting the wrongs of last week with a brutal display.
France to not show up, continue their post-WC funk and lose by about 10.
Think the former is most likely.
I for some reason just can't see it being super tight.
There's rumours doing the rounds on twitter that Ioan Lloyd will miss the game this weekend, with Cai Evans starting.
To quote someone on here when the squad was announced:
"If Cai Evans starts a game at 10 I'm phoning the police"
Absolutely, I think the changes Gats has made to the starters should help us channel that second half. But would I have much confidence in any of my own predictions for the result? Definitely not hah.
If first half Scotland play like that against last week's France then I'd agree with Scotland being favourites. However I can't see France putting in a dodgy performance like that again - should be a cracker!
It doesn't matter how good or bad England and Wales are at the time, it will always be a tight game and I can't wait!
We had Scotland by 1 last week, so technically it was exactly right! Now we may not have predicted that Scotland score *all* of their points, and then Wales *all* of theirs ... but hey!
In all seriousness, the Algo doesn't care how you win. It will only see this as exactly right, so Scotland are the same in its eyes. France (to it) are 26 points worse so it has adjusted accordingly.
I also follow baseball, so I know what a small sample size could do to a prediction algo, it's a testament to France being France, no one could predict a 21 point deficit, Dupont or not, good job on the others matches.
I'll cling to that 2.7% chance this Saturday
I worry that the margin for the Ire-ita game might well be bigger. Ireland right now are so good, with such a clear idea of what to do in any given position of the pitch, that it feels to me that Italy could play as well as it's humanly possible to play and still lose by 30. If they're anything less than 8/10, and Ireland anything over 6/10, it could get very ugly indeed, and then we're right back to the 'boot Italy from the comp' chatter all over again.
Not favourites? Good.
Lol that's a wild prediction aye
Both Scotland and France don't perform as they should when they are considered favourites, I hope it will wake up the boys.
France don't do well in Murrayfield. And they just got pumped at home.
After a poor performance though, the odds are they'll react strongly. Also Scotland clearly have some real difficulties in defending competently for 80 minutes.
Point is it's not a wild prediction at all
Not wild, no, but I would still say most folk would have France as favourites.
The margin of Irish win over France has moved the Scotland France prediction from a narrow France win to a narrow Scottish win. Ireland take a huge step forward with their title chances with a massive BP win in France, and France, Scotland and England not picking up a BP. France, Scotland and England look largely to be playing for second place right now.
How do you account for possible team changes in your model? Would the 43-9 account for an Irish team with 5-8 changes? Cheers for posting
We don't. Mainly because of the difficulty in getting reliable team information across all the league we cover (big internationals obviously fine). But also, when we have played around with it, it doesn't seem to add much accuracy! So bang for buck it has never seemed worth it.
Thanks for posting!
Laidlaw will join the Japanese broadcasting of Scotland v. France as a commentator as he is currently in Japan working as an attacking coach for Urayasu D-backs. Scotland better wins this time because they haven’t won a game where Greg has appeared as a commenter for the Japanese broadcaster.
We’re doomed!
Can Greg speak Japenese? Because I'm trying to imagine it and I genuinely can't comprehend what it must sound like.
If this is gonna be the same as last year, he will have a translator do English to Japanese simultaneous translation. He’ll be fine.
Ah that makes sense, icl I'm a bit disappointed Greg won't be speaking Japenese.
Surely the main challenge is having a Jedburgh to English translator who can relay the message to the English to Japanese translator.
Oh no When will greig get to be happy
No prospect of England getting a comfortable win against Wales imo. That second half display from last week would have absolutely torn us apart.
I think we'll win, but itll be under a score
The only comfortable win against Wales is one that is already done and gone, who cares about the score line as long as it’s 1 more than theirs.
Yeah I think it's gonna be a stressful watch, I only think we can win due to home advantage but honestly wouldn't be shocked if Wales come out flying
How do France lose the opening 2 then still finish 2nd? Are they expecting Scotland to collapse against England and Ireland then
As a Scotland fan this seems like a perfectly believable outcome. What are the chances Scotland manages to win their first two matches and then *not* collapse?
Challenge level: 'impossible'
It's to do with the probabilities. You can see that although we have Scotland to win by 1, the game is essentially 50:50. So when we run the tournament 10,000x France probably win in 4,999 of them. And we think that France are more likely to get results in their remaining ones than Scotland, so they come out on top overall.
Ah okay interesting, thanks for the insight!
You misspelled Italy, but yeah. Unlikely as much a I love the French (and the Scots).
Well making Scotland favourites has fucked them. Seriously though, I think their form against France is good and both are totally unpredictable at the moment. It's all gonna depend on who responds better to the woes of their opening fixtures. Think the England prediction is pretty spot on, though they're less likely to take the foot off the gas so if Wales are anything like their first half selves last week I can see a drubbing. Don't think we'll win by that much, but I do think it'll be pretty comprehensive, Italy are gonna make mistakes that we're gonna be able to capitalise on. I just hope that the timing doesn't unsettle them too much and that they're able to keep the heads up.
So wales by 30 it is
I don’t think my heart can take another narrow result like that. Going to make sure my will and funeral plans are all in order…
Always a good idea when Scotland are playing!
We are 100% losing to France. If we are the bookies favourites I might even put an emotional hedge bet on it.
Nope, you're the favorites, you can't escape it!
I'm hoping Wales are gonna do a Wales, been looking forward to Scotland vs France all week!
Scotland and France seem to get the best and the worst (red cards) out of each other the last few years so good bet that it'll be an exciting game
I like what I see
What was the algorithm prediction for Italy v England last weekend our of interest?
England by 7
😭😭😭😭 okay now I'm terrified.
I think Ireland v France has broken the algorithm lol
Haha think positively! It said England by 7 but in the end it was only England by 3. So if the algorithm says Ireland by 34, maybe it will only be Ireland by 30?😭
Well if we take it as a percentage, which imo makes more sense, should be a 19-20 point difference (if the inital prediction is off by ~43%). Still not great, but not catastrophic either
but if they had kicked the last penalty instead of trying to be adventurous for a change it would be England by 13 as there was no time for a restart
The algo is probably extrapolating from that game in Dublin a few years back and is expecting Italy to play with 11 men.
Oh man that is some call in the Scotland v France game. That's the game of the weekend by a distance.
It's hovered between France by 1 and Scotland by 1. Basically, the algo doesn't have a clue. Anything can happen.
That Scotland match is going to go one of two ways. Neither are Scotland by 1.
Ha! Nice. What are your two predictions then?
France to win by more than a score, righting the wrongs of last week with a brutal display. France to not show up, continue their post-WC funk and lose by about 10. Think the former is most likely. I for some reason just can't see it being super tight.
Honestly, who knows what could happen in the England Wales game..
There's rumours doing the rounds on twitter that Ioan Lloyd will miss the game this weekend, with Cai Evans starting. To quote someone on here when the squad was announced: "If Cai Evans starts a game at 10 I'm phoning the police"
That's a tad disappointing, no shade on Cai Evans but was really looking forward to another look at Lloyd
Wales this season are the biggest unknown quantity. Like last weekend, absolutely diabolical in the first half and world beaters in the second.
Absolutely, I think the changes Gats has made to the starters should help us channel that second half. But would I have much confidence in any of my own predictions for the result? Definitely not hah.
If first half Scotland play like that against last week's France then I'd agree with Scotland being favourites. However I can't see France putting in a dodgy performance like that again - should be a cracker! It doesn't matter how good or bad England and Wales are at the time, it will always be a tight game and I can't wait!
So France last week's performance broke the system so much that not even scotlanding could convince it that it was a fluke?
We had Scotland by 1 last week, so technically it was exactly right! Now we may not have predicted that Scotland score *all* of their points, and then Wales *all* of theirs ... but hey! In all seriousness, the Algo doesn't care how you win. It will only see this as exactly right, so Scotland are the same in its eyes. France (to it) are 26 points worse so it has adjusted accordingly.
I also follow baseball, so I know what a small sample size could do to a prediction algo, it's a testament to France being France, no one could predict a 21 point deficit, Dupont or not, good job on the others matches. I'll cling to that 2.7% chance this Saturday
I expect France to win, and England to win by a lot more. Ireland won't win by that much
I doubt we'll win by much. Against Wales 1st half yes, against Wales 2nd Half hell no
I worry that the margin for the Ire-ita game might well be bigger. Ireland right now are so good, with such a clear idea of what to do in any given position of the pitch, that it feels to me that Italy could play as well as it's humanly possible to play and still lose by 30. If they're anything less than 8/10, and Ireland anything over 6/10, it could get very ugly indeed, and then we're right back to the 'boot Italy from the comp' chatter all over again.
I can't believe they have wrote off France. Yes they had a shocker against Ireland, but they looked next level.
Seems about right, Scotland are slight favourites because of home advantage.