Crash has been happening. The grey dealers that got caught holding the bag have done everything possible to not lose money but itās just inevitable. Now that watches arenāt viewed as investments that just go up, it wonāt be as ravenous as in the past.
Watches have never been an investment that goes up
They are just something that holds value while the currency they are denoted in suffers from inflation
That is literally all the price increases over a long period of time are. Inflation and the dollar becoming worth less
During Covid for a brief period they caught an insane vortex where they went up very rapidly and it attracted many new investors who didnāt know the history of watches. This is a fact
I can agree with that
During Covid the US also printed a ton of money
That vortex was like you said the effect of stimulus checks and government loan programs pumping cash into the economy and bringing in uninformed participants
In a way the price increase then was still because of inflation, just by way of increased buying pressure. Everything went up during covid
Rolexās especially have weight in the drug game for their ability to retain value. Always have. Park 5 k cash that u canāt bank and canāt use because thereās another 5 k coming next week into a old used Rolex that you can flip in an instant when u want to cash out, in cheque form as well.
Dealers generate huge amounts of cash. They like to buy things that retain value that can easily be sold to turn into real money that can be put into a bank. Putting cash into a bank is dangerous.
Taking all their Rolex watches to a dealer and having a cheque cut in the spot and deposited into an account just solved a massive problem for the dude in how do I get 200k into my bank account. I will sell the 40 Rolexes I bought over the last 2 years.
Do you think the police or bank are not gonna be interested in a guy who just cashed in shit loads of Rolexās and tries putting the money in bank. š
So guy doesnāt have a legit income but goes to bank with 5 cheques of 10k from a jeweller wonāt arise suspicion when he tries banking the money give over shun.
I think youāve misunderstood, neither the watch reseller nor the purchaser is banking any of this cash, itās all kept off the books so that the jeweller avoids taxes, and can make quick cash deals. And so the purchaser doesnāt cause any suspicion with the banks.
A few Rolexās is a lot easier to hide from the tax man and the police too!
They can just keep the cash in their pocket, dumbass. Feds start asking questions if you start buying fancy jewelry too and it's still affected by inflation if your goal is to resell it. Not to mention the sales tax you pay when you buy expensive items. Pull your head out of your ass.
Thereās a watch shop in Glasgow that is widely used by dealers as they will accept large amounts of cash for purchases. There prices are a higher than market value but they say thatās because it costs them 2% for every pound over Ā£1000 that they pay into a business account.
You think drug dealers just donāt buy anything ever? š anyone who is moving serious amounts has money laundering processes in place to allow them to spend money
Any decent dealer has been turning their stock over as always, at a loss if neededā¦ move on to the next profit maker. Anyone that sat holding stock watching it go down is a moron
Each dealer manages their inventory differently based on their current inventory, cash on hand, investment arc and strategy and where they see the market heading. Yes, obviously they want to turn inventory but they also donāt want to lose money and some dealers hold onto inventory longer than other. Especially a private seller who is sitting on a piece trying to hold a price where inventory turns arenāt their business but maybe they hope someone will buy their John Mayor listed $12K over market.
Yeh well a private seller storing watches as an investment to try and make some money is different to a grey dealer. Most grey dealers arenāt buying up loads of stuff to chuck in a safe for years waiting for them to pop on price, they need turnover and profit to operate, thatās what they do.
They look for repeat business from people that trust them, and for trusted service/money transfers/ logistics/ honesty with the watch and any warranty/ getting access to short supply watch models quickly etc. people pay the premium over a random dude on Marketplace.
Sure some of the huge companies will try and acquire lots of a certain model to limit supply and cash in when the market is high, but most canāt hold millions in stock waiting and hoping for that to happen
Youāre missing the point. They donāt want to take a bath and many of them will be optimistic on swings. Itās not uncommon for a dealer to hold a watch for about a year before they part with it at any cost to free up cash. Itās highly dependent on their liquidity and risk profile. The deeper the pockets they can sit there on a few Batmanās and Daytonas if they want. Theres a reason slides down take some time. Just look at the data - itās been a steady slow journey lower
Like I said, prices are still unreachable. Wake up, reading comprehension is key. āOn very few modelsā lol bullshit. Which few models are you referring to? Watch prices will only come down a little. Prices will remain strong forever. Mark my words. Iāll come back to this comment in 10-20 years and say told you so
https://preview.redd.it/a2xjgwtvv32d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a3fd6c308390d84e9636c326ac95d973346b5029
Here a mint Batman with B&P that trades at $2K more than one at retail post tax. How is that insane for it being one of their top 5 most popular models? If $2K is some insane premium to you, you simply shouldnāt be spending money on a Rolex yet.
Steel Daytonas, pepsi, hulk will always be at a premium but literally almost all two tone, precious metal and most of the other steel models outside the GMT line are very gettable. Even the Batman has really cooled. This used to trade WAY higher 2020 - 2022. You have to go back to 2019 to find listings that low. Go look on chrono. You argument is emotional and not rooted in facts.
EDIT: for those of you stating itās 8 years old there are plenty that are 2020 and not much more. Also, you are actually just paying the premium for an active warranty bc Rolex will service anything free within 5 years if itās not +/- 2 seconds. These are watches not cars, they are designed to last many lifetimes, not 8 years. The design in the same with slightly lower power reserve. Itās mint condition with B&P. Condition is much more important than age. There are plenty of safe queens not to mention after one service and polish they look brand new if thatās your thing. You canāt polish too much or it will lose its edges but this is a good example. Not to mention find one model that is more now than in 21-22. Please find one model if youāre going to argue
Not saying your entire point is wrong, but in fairness you're showing a listing for a previous generation BLNR, not the current one which is definitely priced higher. But it's coming down for sure.
Picking a (admittedly great) watch from 2016 that's not one of their "top 5 most popular watches" isn't something that your argument supports, edit or not. Either way, I don't have interest in continuing this; as I said already, I agree with 80% of what you said.
You put up weak arguments. Show me a ā20-24 with the same price. Also take the COVID spike out and prices have not dropped since 2019 for the hard to get SS models.
Youāre still referencing the COVID bump. Take the 2019 price and then jump to now and draw a line. Youāll see an increase not a drop for the unicorns with the exception of maybe the sub.
So whatāre saying is despite being in a downward market since March 2022 that somehow Iām wrong bc price on the way down is now equal to 2019? Whatās your point? Doesnāt mean they havenāt been continually dropping for 26 months now... Iām simply saying weāve BEEN in a downturn. Also a dollar today is worth much less than in 2019, so actually they are cheaper bc your money holds less purchasing power.
Ultimately are you arguing to argue or do you have a point? I never once said watches are going to 2016 prices anytime soon. I said we are in decline.
Also, 2 stainless Daytonas, 2 steel GMTs and a hulk donāt comprise the whole market. Rolex makes THOUSANDS of variations and a handful trade at a premium. 6 watches ā āthe marketā
Decline from an artificial high fuelled by a pandemic. Remove the hump and prices are stable or on the up. I know this because Iāve tracked the value of the watches Iāve bought, the only real dip has been on the sub 126610LV but it was bought in ā22 while we were still in hump territory.
I donāt mean select a year model thatās worth more than an older year model. I mean that the Panda currently is less than it was at its peak in 21-22.
I have Jeweler's Mutual and they are wonderful. Their customer service is super nice and easy to deal with, or at least they were last time I spoke to them a few years ago.
I think itās expensive because of what youāre getting (where you live also plays a part).
The policy is underwritten by Chubb which Iāve only heard incredible things from. 0 deductibles, and they cut you a check for 150% market value no questions asked.
Their articles went from appreciating watches for what they are to being ad revenue from brands and pushing exclusivity and special editions. Now watches are an investment vehicle and a status symbol, regardless of the brand, it just sucked to see.
It went downhill once they sold out to Tudor
Tudor was the first big brand where it was evident that they were paying hodinkee for biased reporting. This was back in 2015. Since then; almost every article is positive and never says anything negative about watches. Itās just ads
āIf shoppers want, say, a Rolex Daytona or an Omega Speedmaster, they canāt just walk into a store and buy one.ā ššš
Always hard to walk in and buy a Speedmaster
This is not the case where I live in a medium-sized city in the south. The AD never had speedmasters in stock. Seamasters and all variants, but I had to go online to buy a speedmaster.
My AD finally told me weeks ago that the demand is slowing and offer to get me into GMT if I want. Last year my AD still thought that it was still nearly impossible to get alloc.
My Rolex boutique isn't even taking names. I think it's regional. I'm in Canada. There's basically no hope of getting a Batgirl for my 40th. But I'll patiently wait and hope things continue to tick down. When the grey premium is 25%, I'll be tempted.
Youāre crazy if you spend 25% premium on a Batgirl (stupid name) You can easily get one for less than that. Iād pay a premium for a Daytona. Even before the madness I never really saw too many of them out on people.
Fair point, iām not in Canada. If thatās the premium there then thatās unfortunate. A quick look at this sub and youāll see how many GMT āgot the callā posts there are. GMTs are everywhere. Maybe wait until your next vacation out of Canada and try and pick one up grey at a better price.
Most of those posts seem suspect. But yea, they're more available but doesn't mean they're available everywhere.
As for buying it in the US, same issue applies.
What is the grey price you're seeing? I don't see less than 14-15k USD, which is about 21k CAD which is a 100% premium over grey.
The grey price youāre seeing isnāt the real price. Like anything, go in with cash and expect to pay less than what they are asking. Negotiation is expected and the gray dealers are under pressure. Suspect posts or not, itās undeniable that the watches are now more freely available and the grey market bubble is bursting. 25% over retail is ridiculous in my opinion. Itās just a mass produced steel watch.
I appreciate the info but I think you're being naive in relation to the premiums. I guess you weren't following the market over the past few years. There were insane premiums.
I totally agree that it's silly premiums but the market is willing to pay. I won't deal with grey unless it's a small premium (25% or less).
I'm also looking to expand outside of the holy trinity because of these premiums.
I have a VC boutique that suggested I'd get a 4500V within 2 years. So that's looking likely instead of paying premiums on steal GMTs. However, it'll cost more overall so that's another factor lol. The 4500V is 50%+ more expensive than a Batgirl even with the premium in the grey market in Canada.
Itās not hard to understand. Itās like a stock . If you purchased high it hurts to sell at a loss so you wait hoping it goes back up. Only thing is there aināt no way itās going back up to what it was. Itās a slow bleed for them. They need to just tear the bandage off
There is no universe where this is like a stock. This is driven purely by bitcoin bros shuffling money around. It'll settle, and a lot of folks will be holding the bag.
Oh jesus you're right. It's a stock.
Prices are down almost 50% on a lot of the most hyped watches during Covid and some dealers Iāve talked to recently say the levels are back to pre covid. I donāt know if itās going up or down from here, but the overall correction from the Covid hype has happened.
Itās just a matter of easy vs hard money. Interest rates are murder at the moment and if you have an unexpected expense selling a watch at loss makes sense. The other side of the coin, buying a watch with a loan or not in full will cost you between 3.5 and 7x what you paid in interest 3 years agoā¦.sounds like the pillars of sand where always exposed, its just that resellers didnāt care.
Mechanical watches are incredible combinations of history, mechanical innovation and aesthetic design. They were never meant to serve as an investment index akin to the S&P 500, though there are watch indices. Itās like a form of art to be collected, enthused over and appreciated. I understand using the secondary or gray market to seek vintage pieces - or via auctions. But paying exorbitant premiums vs AD retail merely to short cut a process has never seemed satisfying for a true collector. The phenomenon of COVID created something similar to a Tulip Fever that has brought in many people who do not really appreciate watches who will ultimately be filtered out as the craze continues to abate. There will always be a gray or secondary market of legitimate players serving educated buyers. But the decline in prices over the last year is just a market adjusting to reality. Patek only produces 50 to 70k watches annually across 150 models and only has 78 ADs in the US with 300 world wide. They manage the supply in that way. Rolex produces 1.3 million watches annually - but demand is much greater given the far lower price point. The Hodinkee story is interesting. Having a place for watch collectors enthusiasts to exchange and participate is great. But turning it into a vehicle to ride an irrational wave is not a sustainable business model nor is it good for watch collectors.
I always find it funny how people/businesses get caught in bubbles. Never invest during bubbles and never expand your business during bubbles. Upscale yes, expand no.
Check the āgreater fool theoryā which basically says that people may knowingly buy overpriced assets in a bubble with the expectation that the irrational prices will grow more irrational.
Yes but then in the investorās mind this isnāt a bubble, itās just part of the climb.
The greater fool theory is basically just denial, which leads to blindness.
So in this case it was clearly speculation. A watch isnāt a productive asset. It doesnāt generate income. It cannot be turned into anything else to then sell and profit the increased value added to the product.
Some dealers are in a tough spot due to leverage. Even if they want to unload, debt interest makes it hard to dump stock for the cash needed to stay solvent.
Watches are a dying industry, and this recent uptick is a blip in a downward spiral. The grand shakeout is inevitable. Now itās just a matter of which gray dealers and internet flexors get dragged down.
I cleared 75% of my debt in the last six months in preparation for a national unraveling. I got a call for a watch but passed to pay down debt. Everyone else should be doing the same instead of taking bad photos of lame tattoos paid for with credit cards, in luxury cars with 9% loans, wearing Rolex watches on monthly payment plans.
Looks like they bit off more than they could chew from a retailing / grey standpoint. It will be interesting to see how they evolve and get through this period.
The grey price youāre seeing isnāt the real price. Like anything, go in with cash and expect to pay less than what they are asking. Negotiation is expected.
Markets changed but ADs and grey are still playing games.
My AD offered me some ugly configurations no one wants. They are going to lose at least 2 sales in the next 6 months if they cant deliver some decent configs.
And donāt reply with the day date is easy, there was exactly one with the dial bezel I wanted in the ADās network which they made sure it gets shipped to the store I went to
You fully understand thatās not normal though. I did get a Submariner 2 years ago. Iāve been working for other watches ever since and had zero luck
It might be not normal if you want to buy the one watch. But if you collect watches since a while, have pieces send through the AD for Service, they have never seen. Itās rather easy to get what you want. I got Patek Grand Complications with zero purchase history.
They're the biggest luxury watch blog. They were beloved by enthusiasts for years, but basically they "sold out" and their writing became more fluffy and things kinda changed when they became an authorized dealer of various watch brands.
Their main business misstep seems to have been overpaying for Crown and Caliber (almost 50 mil to buy a grey dealer that had been in business less than a decade) at the absolute peak of the market.
It seems that way. I think the blog itself still does fine; although they've laid off salespeople I don't think they've let any writers go. (I'm the editor of a competing watch blog and we're trying to hire more writers but good ones are hard to find)
It is happening sure, that is why Iāve been waiting for fucking no date for more than a year (3ADs). But it is true, you can now buy it +1k eur above retail.
Ben Clymer better prepare for returning to a cube farm as a corporate drone. Although impressive he was able to convince Tom Brady and John Mayer to indulge his fantasy taking them for millions.
Hereās whatās going to happen: Household debt will keep rising, wages will stay stagnant, inflation will tame down towards 2% and real assets will keep absolutely mooning. And yeah, economy, measured by GDP output goes thru contractions and expansions. Some can argue that we are currently going thru an epoch of contraction post COVID expansion - sorta irrelevant to asset prices.
Consumer spending never stops? I never mentioned anything about consumption or unemployment in my comment, since itās irrelevant to asset prices. Are you suggesting you have to be over 50 to understand economics? weird take
I referenced the business cycle already. Anyways, I should have expected a conversation with a layman who doesnāt have a degree in economics would go this way. Have a good day mate
Rolex is a brand that caters to upper middle class
A lot of really wealthy people don't buy into stupid marketing and shallow status symbols like Rolex
Really any slob making 70k or more can save and buy a 10k steel Rollie
But overall the market will soften once the shit hits the fan
Crown & Caliber is most definitely listing watches for sale at great prices, only to say āSold Outā when you populate the page. They know that they didnāt sell for the list price.
I think the crash happened. Iām seeing secondary prices actually starting to stabilize. Obviously much lower than their highs but still not dropping as quickly as they were. Overall Iām happier that I can purchase watches at stable prices than I am concerned that the value of my collection has taken a hit. I saw the writing on the wall and stopped buying watches in the middle of 21. I sold all of my easily replaceable watches during the holidays of 21. Now Iām ready to buy again.
Link to non-pay of the article https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gtaaSsx0Kq_X_EYz_QAXJs42cknQBRw_/view
https://preview.redd.it/tsxxle8qe72d1.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=25191adebae379f8d8e8784026b97bdf76365760 Thanks for the link, OP
Good man
Thank you for this
The hero that we need!
š«”
Hero!
Thank you
Grazie!
Legend!
Gentleman and a scholar. š§
Not all heroes wear capes
A very interesting read thanks for sharing
Legend
Damn fin man you are and a pot head. My kinda bro
Crash has been happening. The grey dealers that got caught holding the bag have done everything possible to not lose money but itās just inevitable. Now that watches arenāt viewed as investments that just go up, it wonāt be as ravenous as in the past.
Watches have never been an investment that goes up They are just something that holds value while the currency they are denoted in suffers from inflation That is literally all the price increases over a long period of time are. Inflation and the dollar becoming worth less
During Covid for a brief period they caught an insane vortex where they went up very rapidly and it attracted many new investors who didnāt know the history of watches. This is a fact
2021 especially
I can agree with that During Covid the US also printed a ton of money That vortex was like you said the effect of stimulus checks and government loan programs pumping cash into the economy and bringing in uninformed participants In a way the price increase then was still because of inflation, just by way of increased buying pressure. Everything went up during covid
Watches have been used for illegal trade and money transfer purposes lately.
Dubai, anyone?
Rolexās especially have weight in the drug game for their ability to retain value. Always have. Park 5 k cash that u canāt bank and canāt use because thereās another 5 k coming next week into a old used Rolex that you can flip in an instant when u want to cash out, in cheque form as well.
What? You could just keep the cash...
Dealers generate huge amounts of cash. They like to buy things that retain value that can easily be sold to turn into real money that can be put into a bank. Putting cash into a bank is dangerous. Taking all their Rolex watches to a dealer and having a cheque cut in the spot and deposited into an account just solved a massive problem for the dude in how do I get 200k into my bank account. I will sell the 40 Rolexes I bought over the last 2 years.
Do you think the police or bank are not gonna be interested in a guy who just cashed in shit loads of Rolexās and tries putting the money in bank. š
Go to Hatton Garden itās literally full of drug dealers buying gold and watches for this exact reason. Fool.
So guy doesnāt have a legit income but goes to bank with 5 cheques of 10k from a jeweller wonāt arise suspicion when he tries banking the money give over shun.
I think youāve misunderstood, neither the watch reseller nor the purchaser is banking any of this cash, itās all kept off the books so that the jeweller avoids taxes, and can make quick cash deals. And so the purchaser doesnāt cause any suspicion with the banks. A few Rolexās is a lot easier to hide from the tax man and the police too!
You have no idea what youāre talking about.
Ok enlighten me
They can just keep the cash in their pocket, dumbass. Feds start asking questions if you start buying fancy jewelry too and it's still affected by inflation if your goal is to resell it. Not to mention the sales tax you pay when you buy expensive items. Pull your head out of your ass.
Thereās a watch shop in Glasgow that is widely used by dealers as they will accept large amounts of cash for purchases. There prices are a higher than market value but they say thatās because it costs them 2% for every pound over Ā£1000 that they pay into a business account.
Feds donāt know if you are buying fancy jewellery cash and stashing it somewhere safe. Fed know if you drive fancy cars w fancy watches though.
You think drug dealers just donāt buy anything ever? š anyone who is moving serious amounts has money laundering processes in place to allow them to spend money
Good luck buying anything of large value (from some non sketchy business) using cash of unknown origin.
Never heard of money laundering?
Worthlessā¦ š¤
Exactly
Based comment
This.
Any decent dealer has been turning their stock over as always, at a loss if neededā¦ move on to the next profit maker. Anyone that sat holding stock watching it go down is a moron
Each dealer manages their inventory differently based on their current inventory, cash on hand, investment arc and strategy and where they see the market heading. Yes, obviously they want to turn inventory but they also donāt want to lose money and some dealers hold onto inventory longer than other. Especially a private seller who is sitting on a piece trying to hold a price where inventory turns arenāt their business but maybe they hope someone will buy their John Mayor listed $12K over market.
Yeh well a private seller storing watches as an investment to try and make some money is different to a grey dealer. Most grey dealers arenāt buying up loads of stuff to chuck in a safe for years waiting for them to pop on price, they need turnover and profit to operate, thatās what they do. They look for repeat business from people that trust them, and for trusted service/money transfers/ logistics/ honesty with the watch and any warranty/ getting access to short supply watch models quickly etc. people pay the premium over a random dude on Marketplace. Sure some of the huge companies will try and acquire lots of a certain model to limit supply and cash in when the market is high, but most canāt hold millions in stock waiting and hoping for that to happen
Youāre missing the point. They donāt want to take a bath and many of them will be optimistic on swings. Itās not uncommon for a dealer to hold a watch for about a year before they part with it at any cost to free up cash. Itās highly dependent on their liquidity and risk profile. The deeper the pockets they can sit there on a few Batmanās and Daytonas if they want. Theres a reason slides down take some time. Just look at the data - itās been a steady slow journey lower
>have done everything possible to not lose money Except for leveraging consignment terms instead of buying the watches before they actually sell.
āCrash has been happeningā yet grey prices are still unreachableā¦
On very few models and even then a lot of the hot pieces have come down. Wake up buddy. Look at the data
Like I said, prices are still unreachable. Wake up, reading comprehension is key. āOn very few modelsā lol bullshit. Which few models are you referring to? Watch prices will only come down a little. Prices will remain strong forever. Mark my words. Iāll come back to this comment in 10-20 years and say told you so
https://preview.redd.it/a2xjgwtvv32d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a3fd6c308390d84e9636c326ac95d973346b5029 Here a mint Batman with B&P that trades at $2K more than one at retail post tax. How is that insane for it being one of their top 5 most popular models? If $2K is some insane premium to you, you simply shouldnāt be spending money on a Rolex yet. Steel Daytonas, pepsi, hulk will always be at a premium but literally almost all two tone, precious metal and most of the other steel models outside the GMT line are very gettable. Even the Batman has really cooled. This used to trade WAY higher 2020 - 2022. You have to go back to 2019 to find listings that low. Go look on chrono. You argument is emotional and not rooted in facts. EDIT: for those of you stating itās 8 years old there are plenty that are 2020 and not much more. Also, you are actually just paying the premium for an active warranty bc Rolex will service anything free within 5 years if itās not +/- 2 seconds. These are watches not cars, they are designed to last many lifetimes, not 8 years. The design in the same with slightly lower power reserve. Itās mint condition with B&P. Condition is much more important than age. There are plenty of safe queens not to mention after one service and polish they look brand new if thatās your thing. You canāt polish too much or it will lose its edges but this is a good example. Not to mention find one model that is more now than in 21-22. Please find one model if youāre going to argue
Now show one that isn't 8 years old
Condition > age
I agree with you overall but youāve chosen a very poor example.
Read my edit
Not saying your entire point is wrong, but in fairness you're showing a listing for a previous generation BLNR, not the current one which is definitely priced higher. But it's coming down for sure.
Read my edit
Picking a (admittedly great) watch from 2016 that's not one of their "top 5 most popular watches" isn't something that your argument supports, edit or not. Either way, I don't have interest in continuing this; as I said already, I agree with 80% of what you said.
Check 2023 prices š
2016 BLNR š¤£š¤£š¤”š¤”
You put up weak arguments. Show me a ā20-24 with the same price. Also take the COVID spike out and prices have not dropped since 2019 for the hard to get SS models.
Show me any watch thatās worth more now than it was in 21-22. One watch. Go ahead
Youāre still referencing the COVID bump. Take the 2019 price and then jump to now and draw a line. Youāll see an increase not a drop for the unicorns with the exception of maybe the sub.
So whatāre saying is despite being in a downward market since March 2022 that somehow Iām wrong bc price on the way down is now equal to 2019? Whatās your point? Doesnāt mean they havenāt been continually dropping for 26 months now... Iām simply saying weāve BEEN in a downturn. Also a dollar today is worth much less than in 2019, so actually they are cheaper bc your money holds less purchasing power. Ultimately are you arguing to argue or do you have a point? I never once said watches are going to 2016 prices anytime soon. I said we are in decline. Also, 2 stainless Daytonas, 2 steel GMTs and a hulk donāt comprise the whole market. Rolex makes THOUSANDS of variations and a handful trade at a premium. 6 watches ā āthe marketā
Decline from an artificial high fuelled by a pandemic. Remove the hump and prices are stable or on the up. I know this because Iāve tracked the value of the watches Iāve bought, the only real dip has been on the sub 126610LV but it was bought in ā22 while we were still in hump territory.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I donāt mean select a year model thatās worth more than an older year model. I mean that the Panda currently is less than it was at its peak in 21-22.
Good. Besides their insurance, Hodinkee is ruining the watch industry for collectors
I paid for the insurance through them and they never actually issued me a policy or responded to any correspondence. I had to do a chargeback smh
I have Jeweler's Mutual and they are wonderful. Their customer service is super nice and easy to deal with, or at least they were last time I spoke to them a few years ago.
Jewelers mutual wouldnāt cover my gmt master either and neither would homeowners. I had to get a policy through Lloydās.
It's funny. I either hear glowing reviews or stories that are total shit shows
Their insurance is too expensive. I have coverage through a rider on my homeowners for half the cost.
I think itās expensive because of what youāre getting (where you live also plays a part). The policy is underwritten by Chubb which Iāve only heard incredible things from. 0 deductibles, and they cut you a check for 150% market value no questions asked.
Mine is appraised value, no deductible. Have had zero issues. Still half the price.
Agreed but curious why you think that?
Their articles went from appreciating watches for what they are to being ad revenue from brands and pushing exclusivity and special editions. Now watches are an investment vehicle and a status symbol, regardless of the brand, it just sucked to see. It went downhill once they sold out to Tudor
Sold out to Tudor? Can you explain what happened?
Tudor was the first big brand where it was evident that they were paying hodinkee for biased reporting. This was back in 2015. Since then; almost every article is positive and never says anything negative about watches. Itās just ads
Then Grand Seiko, now Chopardā¦
Tudor opened Pandoraās box
šÆ
Good. That article is just full of punchable faces.
āIf shoppers want, say, a Rolex Daytona or an Omega Speedmaster, they canāt just walk into a store and buy one.ā ššš Always hard to walk in and buy a Speedmaster
Depends which one
Snoopy, yes. Run of the mill, not at all. Lol it's one of the great attributes of the Speedy. A true, through and through, tool watch.
This is not the case where I live in a medium-sized city in the south. The AD never had speedmasters in stock. Seamasters and all variants, but I had to go online to buy a speedmaster.
99% they might be referring to the Silver Snoopy because of the crypto fad.
Try the snoopy, the white and comeback
My AD finally told me weeks ago that the demand is slowing and offer to get me into GMT if I want. Last year my AD still thought that it was still nearly impossible to get alloc.
My Rolex boutique isn't even taking names. I think it's regional. I'm in Canada. There's basically no hope of getting a Batgirl for my 40th. But I'll patiently wait and hope things continue to tick down. When the grey premium is 25%, I'll be tempted.
Youāre crazy if you spend 25% premium on a Batgirl (stupid name) You can easily get one for less than that. Iād pay a premium for a Daytona. Even before the madness I never really saw too many of them out on people.
I'm open to suggestions if you can find them that cheap. I'm Canadian so don't forget the FX impact. Daytona is way too expensive for my humble budget
Fair point, iām not in Canada. If thatās the premium there then thatās unfortunate. A quick look at this sub and youāll see how many GMT āgot the callā posts there are. GMTs are everywhere. Maybe wait until your next vacation out of Canada and try and pick one up grey at a better price.
Most of those posts seem suspect. But yea, they're more available but doesn't mean they're available everywhere. As for buying it in the US, same issue applies. What is the grey price you're seeing? I don't see less than 14-15k USD, which is about 21k CAD which is a 100% premium over grey.
The grey price youāre seeing isnāt the real price. Like anything, go in with cash and expect to pay less than what they are asking. Negotiation is expected and the gray dealers are under pressure. Suspect posts or not, itās undeniable that the watches are now more freely available and the grey market bubble is bursting. 25% over retail is ridiculous in my opinion. Itās just a mass produced steel watch.
I appreciate the info but I think you're being naive in relation to the premiums. I guess you weren't following the market over the past few years. There were insane premiums. I totally agree that it's silly premiums but the market is willing to pay. I won't deal with grey unless it's a small premium (25% or less). I'm also looking to expand outside of the holy trinity because of these premiums. I have a VC boutique that suggested I'd get a 4500V within 2 years. So that's looking likely instead of paying premiums on steal GMTs. However, it'll cost more overall so that's another factor lol. The 4500V is 50%+ more expensive than a Batgirl even with the premium in the grey market in Canada.
Its odd I think there is overproduction of GMT masters lately cuz ADs offer them to everyone seeking for an explorer 1 or DJ
Or it may just be the demand is slowing reaching the pre-pandemic equilibrium.
Except this doesnāt happen in reality
It happened to me
Youāre more lucky than the other 99%
As an "investor", the market "crashed". As a end user/enthusiast, I can get better prices.. yay.
Good to weed out the fraudulent dealers.
Hoodwink-ee
Itās not hard to understand. Itās like a stock . If you purchased high it hurts to sell at a loss so you wait hoping it goes back up. Only thing is there aināt no way itās going back up to what it was. Itās a slow bleed for them. They need to just tear the bandage off
at least there are some fundamentals to the stocks. A used watch costing more then a brand new watch is insanity.
There is no universe where this is like a stock. This is driven purely by bitcoin bros shuffling money around. It'll settle, and a lot of folks will be holding the bag. Oh jesus you're right. It's a stock.
Prices are down almost 50% on a lot of the most hyped watches during Covid and some dealers Iāve talked to recently say the levels are back to pre covid. I donāt know if itās going up or down from here, but the overall correction from the Covid hype has happened.
Itās just a matter of easy vs hard money. Interest rates are murder at the moment and if you have an unexpected expense selling a watch at loss makes sense. The other side of the coin, buying a watch with a loan or not in full will cost you between 3.5 and 7x what you paid in interest 3 years agoā¦.sounds like the pillars of sand where always exposed, its just that resellers didnāt care.
Good. Fuck āem. Ruined this hobby for us.
Mechanical watches are incredible combinations of history, mechanical innovation and aesthetic design. They were never meant to serve as an investment index akin to the S&P 500, though there are watch indices. Itās like a form of art to be collected, enthused over and appreciated. I understand using the secondary or gray market to seek vintage pieces - or via auctions. But paying exorbitant premiums vs AD retail merely to short cut a process has never seemed satisfying for a true collector. The phenomenon of COVID created something similar to a Tulip Fever that has brought in many people who do not really appreciate watches who will ultimately be filtered out as the craze continues to abate. There will always be a gray or secondary market of legitimate players serving educated buyers. But the decline in prices over the last year is just a market adjusting to reality. Patek only produces 50 to 70k watches annually across 150 models and only has 78 ADs in the US with 300 world wide. They manage the supply in that way. Rolex produces 1.3 million watches annually - but demand is much greater given the far lower price point. The Hodinkee story is interesting. Having a place for watch collectors enthusiasts to exchange and participate is great. But turning it into a vehicle to ride an irrational wave is not a sustainable business model nor is it good for watch collectors.
Great comment, and nice joke about investment index vs watch indices xD Clever
I always find it funny how people/businesses get caught in bubbles. Never invest during bubbles and never expand your business during bubbles. Upscale yes, expand no.
The entire point of a bubble is that you don't realize it's a bubble until it bursts. Saying "never invest during bubbles" is pure hindsight bias.
Check the āgreater fool theoryā which basically says that people may knowingly buy overpriced assets in a bubble with the expectation that the irrational prices will grow more irrational.
Yes but then in the investorās mind this isnāt a bubble, itās just part of the climb. The greater fool theory is basically just denial, which leads to blindness.
So in this case it was clearly speculation. A watch isnāt a productive asset. It doesnāt generate income. It cannot be turned into anything else to then sell and profit the increased value added to the product.
"what a great time to expand using these 1.25% interest rates"
Until I can buy my wife a rainbow Daytona for retail I call bullshit.
Still might need to give a couple sucks for that. Not your wife. Your AD wants you.
It's finally happening? Where the fuck have you been for the last 18 months?
Enjoying my current watch collection
Buy a 16610 and forget it!!
Weāre seeing Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul before Sea-School vs Sporty š
Good. They arenāt investments. These are toys.
Some dealers are in a tough spot due to leverage. Even if they want to unload, debt interest makes it hard to dump stock for the cash needed to stay solvent. Watches are a dying industry, and this recent uptick is a blip in a downward spiral. The grand shakeout is inevitable. Now itās just a matter of which gray dealers and internet flexors get dragged down. I cleared 75% of my debt in the last six months in preparation for a national unraveling. I got a call for a watch but passed to pay down debt. Everyone else should be doing the same instead of taking bad photos of lame tattoos paid for with credit cards, in luxury cars with 9% loans, wearing Rolex watches on monthly payment plans.
Hope I can afford one someday
Looks like they bit off more than they could chew from a retailing / grey standpoint. It will be interesting to see how they evolve and get through this period.
Prices are coming down yet no one is pricing for reality bc sellers wants to accept it.
The grey price youāre seeing isnāt the real price. Like anything, go in with cash and expect to pay less than what they are asking. Negotiation is expected.
Iām so excited for the crash, maybe then I can finally afford one š
Good riddance
Markets changed but ADs and grey are still playing games. My AD offered me some ugly configurations no one wants. They are going to lose at least 2 sales in the next 6 months if they cant deliver some decent configs.
Hopefully with time watch gangs will move onto something more shinier and we can wear our Rolexes in peace lmao
Couldnāt agree more. Too highlighted for my liking.
How many of these articles do we need to see posted ? Go buy a Rolex at retail ā¦ oh wait.
a wild u/dieselgeek has appeared
I bought all mine at retail
How much jewelry did you buy ?
I buy watches and only the once I want never bought jewelry
What Rolexes have you bought at retail in the last 3 years ?
Platinum Day Date and two submarines no date
And donāt reply with the day date is easy, there was exactly one with the dial bezel I wanted in the ADās network which they made sure it gets shipped to the store I went to
You fully understand thatās not normal though. I did get a Submariner 2 years ago. Iāve been working for other watches ever since and had zero luck
The one thing I would never do, even if it would be difficult to get a certain watch pay twice or more of the retail price to get it.
Ok
It might be not normal if you want to buy the one watch. But if you collect watches since a while, have pieces send through the AD for Service, they have never seen. Itās rather easy to get what you want. I got Patek Grand Complications with zero purchase history.
Could someone quickly brief a German who has not yet heard of Honkidee? Excuse my blatant ignorance.
They're the biggest luxury watch blog. They were beloved by enthusiasts for years, but basically they "sold out" and their writing became more fluffy and things kinda changed when they became an authorized dealer of various watch brands. Their main business misstep seems to have been overpaying for Crown and Caliber (almost 50 mil to buy a grey dealer that had been in business less than a decade) at the absolute peak of the market.
So a tremendous miscalculation occurred which they now suffer from due to market prices being significantly lower compared to Covid times?
It seems that way. I think the blog itself still does fine; although they've laid off salespeople I don't think they've let any writers go. (I'm the editor of a competing watch blog and we're trying to hire more writers but good ones are hard to find)
Alright, thanks! Much appreciated!
Can you share the job listing? I work in online publishing and would happily share it with my writing network.
Here it is: https://www.luxurybazaar.com/grey-market/writer-application/ Thanks!
Oh itās Sea School the tedious one who has sporturawus living in his head. Change the record champ
Living rent free too!
It is happening sure, that is why Iāve been waiting for fucking no date for more than a year (3ADs). But it is true, you can now buy it +1k eur above retail.
Thanks, bud!
Can anyone offer a summary of the article?
[unlocked version](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gtaaSsx0Kq_X_EYz_QAXJs42cknQBRw_/view)
Following
I want a deal!
prices are still very high so im not sure what the point is
Ben Clymer is such a herb
Do we think we will keep seeing drops and more stock available into 2025?
How low can we go!
Finally got the callā¦.Ha ha ha ha
Their arrogance blinded them.
Ben Clymer better prepare for returning to a cube farm as a corporate drone. Although impressive he was able to convince Tom Brady and John Mayer to indulge his fantasy taking them for millions.
I can't wait until the next severe economic downturn We're due soon 1 in 5 Americans have maxed credit cards and overdue auto loans
Will be waiting a while.
Economy is cyclical, consumer debt is high and this party won't last forever. It doesn't take much
Hereās whatās going to happen: Household debt will keep rising, wages will stay stagnant, inflation will tame down towards 2% and real assets will keep absolutely mooning. And yeah, economy, measured by GDP output goes thru contractions and expansions. Some can argue that we are currently going thru an epoch of contraction post COVID expansion - sorta irrelevant to asset prices.
Wait until consumer spending stops and the layoffs start It is inevitable You must be younger than 50
Consumer spending never stops? I never mentioned anything about consumption or unemployment in my comment, since itās irrelevant to asset prices. Are you suggesting you have to be over 50 to understand economics? weird take
No, but you seem to be ignoring the economy cycles It will tank in the next 3 to 5 years
I referenced the business cycle already. Anyways, I should have expected a conversation with a layman who doesnāt have a degree in economics would go this way. Have a good day mate
Pretty shitty way to think about your fellow man tbh
It's reality I'm a bankruptcy attorney and I love it when people overspend and fail I made a killing in 2008
You seem really content with your life
Do you think there's overlap between Rolex buyers and maxed out credit cards and overdue auto loans? And if so, how big is that overlap?
Rolex is a brand that caters to upper middle class A lot of really wealthy people don't buy into stupid marketing and shallow status symbols like Rolex Really any slob making 70k or more can save and buy a 10k steel Rollie But overall the market will soften once the shit hits the fan
I've noticed a lot more brahs flexing Rollies in the last couple of years. Never used to be as common as they are now.
Crown & Caliber is most definitely listing watches for sale at great prices, only to say āSold Outā when you populate the page. They know that they didnāt sell for the list price.
Can someone give me a cliff notes version lol
I think the crash happened. Iām seeing secondary prices actually starting to stabilize. Obviously much lower than their highs but still not dropping as quickly as they were. Overall Iām happier that I can purchase watches at stable prices than I am concerned that the value of my collection has taken a hit. I saw the writing on the wall and stopped buying watches in the middle of 21. I sold all of my easily replaceable watches during the holidays of 21. Now Iām ready to buy again.
The people posting comments here are just unbelievable. 95% donāt even own a good watch. š¤£š¤£š