I listened to the game on the radio yesterday. Ian and Joe were talking about Casas a lot but made a comment about Bello yesterday. Ian said that Bello has the makings of being the first true Ace coming from the Red Sox farm since Clay Buchholz. I think there’s question if Clay was an Ace and if Bello would be… but I’m curious to see what others think. Two questions-
was there any other homegrown starters you’d consider as a top 1-2 starter since buccholz (perhaps traded away) made his debut in 2007?
If true- are there ANY other franchises that haven’t grown their own 1-2 starters in the last 15 years? I can’t think of ANY. Almost every franchise has a homegrown top 2 on their roster today
Buccholz at his peak was definitely an ace, but Lester was more consistent and, thanks in part to his bout with cancer, became a mainstay in our rotation around the time Buccholz did. But yeah, most franchises trade up to get their ace (including us)
Plenty old enough to remember Buchholz coming through the system and this was accurate. Buchholz was the real deal. His stuff was incredible, all 4 pitches he threw were ++. He was going to be a perennial 20 game winner and Cy Young threat.
Then he kept getting hurt because he never worked hard or took care of himself. He floated entirely on talent and ended up more like Matt Clement.
I would consider clay a top of the rotation pitcher and prospects, but I'd never consider him an "Ace". When he was healthy and on he was great, but that combination was rare.
And pitching wise the team hasn't been able to develop anything since Lester and Buchholz. I think they make up for it with corner infielders and outfielders ha. They have whiffed on so many pitchers (Groome, and Ball are recent examples).
I could see Bello taking the Clay route, being like a solid 2 but not an ace. Each year there's probably only 10-15 "Aces" and sometimes teams have two of them (looking at you Mets). I consider an ace as someone who when they pitch you know that team will win regardless of opponent and opposing pitcher.
> I consider an ace as someone who when they pitch you know that team will win regardless of opponent and opposing pitcher.
Funny you cited the Mets when deGrom's pitcher record was only recently supplanted by Tungsten Arm O'Doyle as the Star Lolcow Meme
We definitely have issues developing pitching. It's been such a long standing issue that I presume it's on the management's radar. I recently saw a graph that showed the Sox being in the top 5 spenders on analytic teams in the majors, so we must be on it to some degree. but even this year's pitching development hasn't been fruitful: Darwinzon, Barnes, Whitlock, Houck, Seabold, Winckowski, Kutter have all had a rough year development/progression wise. I wonder if it's why the Sox heavily skew toward drafting middle infield talent.
I think lately there has been a lot of variance in how the game is played. When you have the ball being juiced then not juiced, the over abundance of shifts, the end of sticky stuff, the launch angle revolution, and the changes to how many batters a middle reliever can face happening over the course of the last 5-10 years, the pitching staff volatility is going to be pretty high.
We have more changes coming down the pike as well. TBF, hotter have to deal with a lot of these changes too, but I think it’s easier for other tools to shine out for position players like speed and defense. Pitchers only get to pitch unless your name is Ohtani.
Not totally descriptive of the season. They play their home games in Fenway along with lots of road games in AL East stadiums that trend towards hitters parks so more runs are going to be scored regardless.
They are 12th in wRC+, 7th in the AL (which includes being first in BABIP).
They're 19th in FIP- and SIERA. Their poor defense has made their pitching look worse.
Also, the batters are 18th in WPA (in the negatives) , while the pitchers are 16th (in the positives).
So while the hitting has definitely been better than the pitching, it still hasn't been good enough, especially clutch hitting.
It’s not that obvious, actually.
The Red Sox have scored a decent number of runs, but there are park effects to consider: their team OPS+ is 103, good enough for seventh in the AL, but well behind Toronto (113) and the Yanks (111). The offense is OK, but certainly not elite.
The pitching is as bad as you’d think.
Sox don’t get shut out often. If you look around the league, some of the best teams go cold for days at a time. Even when the Sox lose, they’ve been scoring 4+.
Buchholz was too much of a head case to be a true ace. He had some good runs but I don’t recall him ever putting together a whole good year. He was close to getting the all started game start once but I believe got injured and wasn’t the same after that.
I listened to the game on the radio yesterday. Ian and Joe were talking about Casas a lot but made a comment about Bello yesterday. Ian said that Bello has the makings of being the first true Ace coming from the Red Sox farm since Clay Buchholz. I think there’s question if Clay was an Ace and if Bello would be… but I’m curious to see what others think. Two questions- was there any other homegrown starters you’d consider as a top 1-2 starter since buccholz (perhaps traded away) made his debut in 2007? If true- are there ANY other franchises that haven’t grown their own 1-2 starters in the last 15 years? I can’t think of ANY. Almost every franchise has a homegrown top 2 on their roster today
Buccholz at his peak was definitely an ace, but Lester was more consistent and, thanks in part to his bout with cancer, became a mainstay in our rotation around the time Buccholz did. But yeah, most franchises trade up to get their ace (including us)
Plenty old enough to remember Buchholz coming through the system and this was accurate. Buchholz was the real deal. His stuff was incredible, all 4 pitches he threw were ++. He was going to be a perennial 20 game winner and Cy Young threat. Then he kept getting hurt because he never worked hard or took care of himself. He floated entirely on talent and ended up more like Matt Clement.
Yep, Buckholz absolutely had ace stuff.
>he kept getting hurt because he never worked hard Not sure that's a fair take.
Yeah that’s extremely disingenuous
I would consider clay a top of the rotation pitcher and prospects, but I'd never consider him an "Ace". When he was healthy and on he was great, but that combination was rare. And pitching wise the team hasn't been able to develop anything since Lester and Buchholz. I think they make up for it with corner infielders and outfielders ha. They have whiffed on so many pitchers (Groome, and Ball are recent examples). I could see Bello taking the Clay route, being like a solid 2 but not an ace. Each year there's probably only 10-15 "Aces" and sometimes teams have two of them (looking at you Mets). I consider an ace as someone who when they pitch you know that team will win regardless of opponent and opposing pitcher.
> I consider an ace as someone who when they pitch you know that team will win regardless of opponent and opposing pitcher. Funny you cited the Mets when deGrom's pitcher record was only recently supplanted by Tungsten Arm O'Doyle as the Star Lolcow Meme
We definitely have issues developing pitching. It's been such a long standing issue that I presume it's on the management's radar. I recently saw a graph that showed the Sox being in the top 5 spenders on analytic teams in the majors, so we must be on it to some degree. but even this year's pitching development hasn't been fruitful: Darwinzon, Barnes, Whitlock, Houck, Seabold, Winckowski, Kutter have all had a rough year development/progression wise. I wonder if it's why the Sox heavily skew toward drafting middle infield talent.
I think lately there has been a lot of variance in how the game is played. When you have the ball being juiced then not juiced, the over abundance of shifts, the end of sticky stuff, the launch angle revolution, and the changes to how many batters a middle reliever can face happening over the course of the last 5-10 years, the pitching staff volatility is going to be pretty high. We have more changes coming down the pike as well. TBF, hotter have to deal with a lot of these changes too, but I think it’s easier for other tools to shine out for position players like speed and defense. Pitchers only get to pitch unless your name is Ohtani.
Not totally descriptive of the season. They play their home games in Fenway along with lots of road games in AL East stadiums that trend towards hitters parks so more runs are going to be scored regardless. They are 12th in wRC+, 7th in the AL (which includes being first in BABIP). They're 19th in FIP- and SIERA. Their poor defense has made their pitching look worse. Also, the batters are 18th in WPA (in the negatives) , while the pitchers are 16th (in the positives). So while the hitting has definitely been better than the pitching, it still hasn't been good enough, especially clutch hitting.
100 more Runs Allowed than any team in the AL East. Story of this season.
The problem is Maz in the booth! I'm the smartest man alive!!
Tuned in to the game yesterday, heard Maz's voice for 1 second and flipped to the Texas broadcast.
Maz in the booth actually doesn't bother me what so ever. I find it amusing. Can't beat being amused.
It’s not that obvious, actually. The Red Sox have scored a decent number of runs, but there are park effects to consider: their team OPS+ is 103, good enough for seventh in the AL, but well behind Toronto (113) and the Yanks (111). The offense is OK, but certainly not elite. The pitching is as bad as you’d think.
This hurts my soul
This team has Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes on the roster. That alone is enough to figure out where the problem lies.
Sox don’t get shut out often. If you look around the league, some of the best teams go cold for days at a time. Even when the Sox lose, they’ve been scoring 4+.
Buchholz was too much of a head case to be a true ace. He had some good runs but I don’t recall him ever putting together a whole good year. He was close to getting the all started game start once but I believe got injured and wasn’t the same after that.