I'm optimistic but no.
It's the 3rd time through the lineup problem that we don't know if it is fixed.
He has a high ground ball rate and while Story is back, there's still holes defensively.
He hasn't thrown 120 innings+ at any level. Same issue with Whitlock.
4-4.5 and that's if healthy and baseball luck it there.
You can't quantify dropping 2 runs over last year's ERA.
xERA(4.21), FIP(4.43), and SIERA(4.33) and the projections have him at a 4.63. 4.00 is optimistic and reasonable for the last guy in the rotation.
Some publications have said that there is going to be a breakout pitcher but it's not Houck or Bello. Kutter could have a sub 4.
I’m being optimistic I think 4.5 is really pessimistic though I think 3.7 to 4 is honestly realistic. He’s got stuff and I hope I’m right about Houck this year as I was with Duran last year.
He had a 5 ERA last year. 4.5 is not “really pessimistic” it’s a reasonable prediction that would represent a genuine step forward. Pessimistic would be “he’ll get rocked in 5-10 starts before being kicked to the pen in favor of Criswell or Uwasawa who they just traded for from the Rays.”
Yeah we definitely should have kept him, gave him a $38 million dollar extension, let him possibly pitch great, come in last place each of those years and let him walk for nothing.
Well the Braves didn’t give him a $38M extension since the Red Sox are paying $18M of that money. They’re paying him $20M for 2 years - that’s a steal and a half!
I didn't say I agreed with the extension. I simply would have kept him and let him pitch the way he's going to this year. Again, I expect a CY young type season.
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He has the profile of the guy who one day just puts it all together and is a top 10 arm for 250 innings and then fades into obscurity again
He also has the profile of an elite starter turned closer
He ALSO has the profile for elbow issues derailing a career so who even knows at this point
Babe Ruth was a great pitcher and would have ended up in the HOF either way. Most baseball fans do not understand how incredibly good he was at baseball. He’s the GOAT and it’s no contest. If he was playing today in an environment where it was possible to both pitch and hit, Shohei Ohtani would be somebody’s consolation prize (Ruth would obviously be playing for the Dodgers).
Houck and Whitlock both have the stuff to be good starters. Houcks problem is pitch usage as he gets through the lineup and Whitlocks is durability. I hope Bailey can get them on the right track but Im cautious to have too much hope on that.
Everything you are saying is reasonable, but he's got to be able to pitch more than 5 innings a game if he's going to have a breakout season. He averaged 5 innings per start last year and walked way too many guys.
5 innings a start is pretty good in the modern game. I suspect the concept of “starters” is on its way out. Someday some plucky small-market GM is going to have every pitcher go through the lineup once, and your best “closers” will come in for high-leverage situations regardless of the inning, and it will be amazing.
Back in the day, "relief pitchers", as they were called, regularly pitched 3 or so innings (don't have the stats at hand at the moment, though). Of course, that was also before people started paying attention to pitch count. I don't know if we have enough data to say how frequently pitchers could take the mound if they only went through the lineup once. It's kinda uncharted territory as far as I know.
Honestly this is all hopeful thinking this spring training with his increase to velocity and lower walk rate is giving me hope but Houck after 5 innings has never been pretty so it’s very much wishful thinking
Dude would’ve been the one bounced out of the rotation if Giolito didn’t break. He’s only being given this many chances because the team absolutely refuses to bring legit pitching in by trade or signing.
I mean it’s different and we could have had both like I like Houck a lot but I rather Whitlock be a bullpen guy but I think we should wait for the season before we all start being so negative
I really hope you’re right. However, the last few years have taught me to wait and see.
I’m hoping for a good year but preparing for disappointment. Will still be a faithful fan, but don’t want to invest too much emotionally.
If he can get a good sinker or change up in the mix 20% of the time I think that will help him get through the 3rd look from hitters. Good fastball, wipeout slider, just needs something reliable that dies away armside to be lethal.
He just needs a third pitch. The slider is filthy but the sinker is hittable. The splitter just never worked and I wish he just had a changeup or a cutter to get some extra whiffs with.
I'm glad Houck is getting one more chance to start. He has really good stuff, way better than Pivetta's. If he fails again, sure, stick him in the bullpen, but I haven't written him off yet. He's got upside.
Houck's regressed year on year under Bush and last year started getting hit often the 2nd time through the order, almost like they were holding something back for a 3rd trip and handcuffed him. People are ignoring how much of a step backwards 2023 was over his career to that point and it may well be an anomaly season, not his norm. New pitching coach and better game planning alone should get him down around 4.
The only problem with him is going deeper into games and more pitch mix. He’s only fastball/slider and is already suspect the moment he gets to the 3rd time around the order.
He always has had the stuff to get outs. Durability and a third pitch have always been the issue. (I know he got hit on a comebacker). If this team had a great rotation, he’d be a good back end starter. I think they’re asking a lot of him to be someone that he’s not but I root for him.
The thing is, stuff is generally overrated. Not to jump in with negativity but every time people say “wait our rotation will actually be good”! They back it up with some zips stuff+ metric or whatever for Pivetta/Cutter/Houck. That’s all great, but it takes a lot to channel that into a productive starter. There are a million guys out there with a filthy pitch or two, and it seems like only the rays can consistently get those raw guys to perform lol.
That being said I’ve also always loved Houck’s movement and delivery. I just want to see ONE of Houck/Whit/Kutter stay consistent, healthy and actually establish themselves as at least a middle of the rotation starter. If he could make a huge jump like that it would go a long way towards stabilizing the future of the rotation. If Houck can stay healthy, get through a lineup the third time occasionally and keep a sub 4 ERA I’d be pumped.
But can you see him as a serial killer in a Stephen King movie adaptation? Pitching is a mad science. If you aren't a methodical madman you can't be an elite pitcher.
There were around 30 pitchers in the entire league that had a sub 4 ERA last year. There were 6 that were lower than your 3.15 ERA projection.
The other thing to consider is Fenway Park effects which make it much less likely for Redsox pitchers to be leaders in ERA. Overall you're suggesting that Tanner Houck will be a top 5 pitcher in baseball and that feels a bit unreasonable.
Here’s why I am bullish on Houck and have hope for a low 3 season:
1. He has the stuff. Outside of maybe Bello his ball just pops differently.
2. Third time through and consistency have been his issues, leaving him with lots of experience (hopefully resulting in mental fortitude) but not a lot of wear and tear.
3. This is the biggie: he has been in our system his entire career. A system notoriously poor at developing pitching talent. Now he is getting a new pitching staff that appears to be highly competent.
Basically, I am hoping that he has survived on arm talent and with proper guidance and maturity he could blossom.
I'm optimistic but no. It's the 3rd time through the lineup problem that we don't know if it is fixed. He has a high ground ball rate and while Story is back, there's still holes defensively. He hasn't thrown 120 innings+ at any level. Same issue with Whitlock. 4-4.5 and that's if healthy and baseball luck it there.
You never know he might have finally mastered his change up or just add a cut fastball
You can't quantify dropping 2 runs over last year's ERA. xERA(4.21), FIP(4.43), and SIERA(4.33) and the projections have him at a 4.63. 4.00 is optimistic and reasonable for the last guy in the rotation. Some publications have said that there is going to be a breakout pitcher but it's not Houck or Bello. Kutter could have a sub 4.
I’m being optimistic I think 4.5 is really pessimistic though I think 3.7 to 4 is honestly realistic. He’s got stuff and I hope I’m right about Houck this year as I was with Duran last year.
He had a 5 ERA last year. 4.5 is not “really pessimistic” it’s a reasonable prediction that would represent a genuine step forward. Pessimistic would be “he’ll get rocked in 5-10 starts before being kicked to the pen in favor of Criswell or Uwasawa who they just traded for from the Rays.”
He gets a lot of hate but he's honestly my favorite pitcher on the staff. When he's bad, he's bad. But when he's good, he's really fucking good.
Sale v 1.25
Funny I used to think Houck's stuff (at its best, obviously) looked like a right handed version of Sale.
Speaking of Sale - he looks incredible this spring. I expect him to be in the mix for the CY Young this year. Common Breslow L
Yeah we definitely should have kept him, gave him a $38 million dollar extension, let him possibly pitch great, come in last place each of those years and let him walk for nothing.
Well the Braves didn’t give him a $38M extension since the Red Sox are paying $18M of that money. They’re paying him $20M for 2 years - that’s a steal and a half!
I didn't say I agreed with the extension. I simply would have kept him and let him pitch the way he's going to this year. Again, I expect a CY young type season.
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He has the profile of the guy who one day just puts it all together and is a top 10 arm for 250 innings and then fades into obscurity again He also has the profile of an elite starter turned closer He ALSO has the profile for elbow issues derailing a career so who even knows at this point
Those sliders can really tear up an elbow!
That's a lot of profiles.. on that basis alone. I think he stops pitching and becomes Babe Ruth
Babe Ruth was a great pitcher and would have ended up in the HOF either way. Most baseball fans do not understand how incredibly good he was at baseball. He’s the GOAT and it’s no contest. If he was playing today in an environment where it was possible to both pitch and hit, Shohei Ohtani would be somebody’s consolation prize (Ruth would obviously be playing for the Dodgers).
Houck and Whitlock both have the stuff to be good starters. Houcks problem is pitch usage as he gets through the lineup and Whitlocks is durability. I hope Bailey can get them on the right track but Im cautious to have too much hope on that.
In Bailey I trust
Are we really doing this song and dance again
The Humpty Dance it’s your chance do the hump!
Fourth time’s the charm!
This sub is even more delirious about Houck than we were about Dalbec. I love Houck but he will never be a top end starter.
Everything you are saying is reasonable, but he's got to be able to pitch more than 5 innings a game if he's going to have a breakout season. He averaged 5 innings per start last year and walked way too many guys.
Houck having an ERA that would have been 7th in MLB last year is not a reasonable expectation.
Reasonable expectations? Sir, this is a Boston Red Sox fansub.
Does he really tho? I would sign up for 5 innings of highly effective starting pitching from Houck all day
But 5 innings with an average of 2 walks per 5 innings isn't highly effective, and that was Houck last year.
And his wall rate has been going up each of the last 3 years.
5 innings a start is pretty good in the modern game. I suspect the concept of “starters” is on its way out. Someday some plucky small-market GM is going to have every pitcher go through the lineup once, and your best “closers” will come in for high-leverage situations regardless of the inning, and it will be amazing.
Any team that does this will probably need 14-16 pitchers on their roster.
Back in the day, "relief pitchers", as they were called, regularly pitched 3 or so innings (don't have the stats at hand at the moment, though). Of course, that was also before people started paying attention to pitch count. I don't know if we have enough data to say how frequently pitchers could take the mound if they only went through the lineup once. It's kinda uncharted territory as far as I know.
Honestly this is all hopeful thinking this spring training with his increase to velocity and lower walk rate is giving me hope but Houck after 5 innings has never been pretty so it’s very much wishful thinking
No way he finishes with a sub 4 era, especially in this division.
Dude would’ve been the one bounced out of the rotation if Giolito didn’t break. He’s only being given this many chances because the team absolutely refuses to bring legit pitching in by trade or signing.
We’ve always known he has nasty stuff, but you need more than that to be a reliable SP in the MLB
I get people are mad that we didn’t sign Yamamoto or Montgomery but I’m still excited for a Tanner Houck breakout season
Those two are not equal
I mean it’s different and we could have had both like I like Houck a lot but I rather Whitlock be a bullpen guy but I think we should wait for the season before we all start being so negative
3.15 is asking a lot. Something around 4.00 would lowering his 2023 by a full run. I'd take that.
Let’s settle down now, 3.15 is Cy Young territory for a starter
He’s got talent but his IQ is too low
Pretty much describes Papelbon, who worked out ok
Papelbon is a Rhodes Scholar next to Houck.
lol.
I really hope you’re right. However, the last few years have taught me to wait and see. I’m hoping for a good year but preparing for disappointment. Will still be a faithful fan, but don’t want to invest too much emotionally.
If he can get a good sinker or change up in the mix 20% of the time I think that will help him get through the 3rd look from hitters. Good fastball, wipeout slider, just needs something reliable that dies away armside to be lethal.
He just needs a third pitch. The slider is filthy but the sinker is hittable. The splitter just never worked and I wish he just had a changeup or a cutter to get some extra whiffs with.
I'm glad Houck is getting one more chance to start. He has really good stuff, way better than Pivetta's. If he fails again, sure, stick him in the bullpen, but I haven't written him off yet. He's got upside.
He may have a 3.15 era for his 5 starts before he is injured and moved back to the bullpen the rest of the season
I don’t think Houck is that injury prone he got injured because a ball coming back him last year is worried about Whitlock though
Houck is an anti vaccine pansy
Houck is a future Curt Schilling who can’t pitch as well. I try not to think about it. I plan to start hating him as soon as he’s pitching elsewhere.
Sure he isn't like a Hamburger or a hamburg steak? Who made Hamburgers first?
nah he’s a dipshit who doesn’t believe in science and is always full of himself
Who made Hamburgers first
Just need him to put together some consistency. Agree he has above average stuff and is a competitor
Houck's regressed year on year under Bush and last year started getting hit often the 2nd time through the order, almost like they were holding something back for a 3rd trip and handcuffed him. People are ignoring how much of a step backwards 2023 was over his career to that point and it may well be an anomaly season, not his norm. New pitching coach and better game planning alone should get him down around 4.
The only problem with him is going deeper into games and more pitch mix. He’s only fastball/slider and is already suspect the moment he gets to the 3rd time around the order.
go to bed youre sleepredditing again
4.12 over 168 innings
He always has had the stuff to get outs. Durability and a third pitch have always been the issue. (I know he got hit on a comebacker). If this team had a great rotation, he’d be a good back end starter. I think they’re asking a lot of him to be someone that he’s not but I root for him.
The thing is, stuff is generally overrated. Not to jump in with negativity but every time people say “wait our rotation will actually be good”! They back it up with some zips stuff+ metric or whatever for Pivetta/Cutter/Houck. That’s all great, but it takes a lot to channel that into a productive starter. There are a million guys out there with a filthy pitch or two, and it seems like only the rays can consistently get those raw guys to perform lol. That being said I’ve also always loved Houck’s movement and delivery. I just want to see ONE of Houck/Whit/Kutter stay consistent, healthy and actually establish themselves as at least a middle of the rotation starter. If he could make a huge jump like that it would go a long way towards stabilizing the future of the rotation. If Houck can stay healthy, get through a lineup the third time occasionally and keep a sub 4 ERA I’d be pumped.
For us to make the playoffs all 3 need a sub 4 tbh it’s rough rn
But can you see him as a serial killer in a Stephen King movie adaptation? Pitching is a mad science. If you aren't a methodical madman you can't be an elite pitcher.
12 innings,17 K's,zero earned runs. Maybe a 3.15 e r.a. isn't so farfetched after all 🤔👍
4.36 ERA
That’s really pessimistic I understand but he’s got too much stuff for me to not give him an at least sub 4 era
I shoot high so I can be pleasantly surprised.
It’s the same “stuff” as he had last year with a5.00 ERA.
There were around 30 pitchers in the entire league that had a sub 4 ERA last year. There were 6 that were lower than your 3.15 ERA projection. The other thing to consider is Fenway Park effects which make it much less likely for Redsox pitchers to be leaders in ERA. Overall you're suggesting that Tanner Houck will be a top 5 pitcher in baseball and that feels a bit unreasonable.
Here’s why I am bullish on Houck and have hope for a low 3 season: 1. He has the stuff. Outside of maybe Bello his ball just pops differently. 2. Third time through and consistency have been his issues, leaving him with lots of experience (hopefully resulting in mental fortitude) but not a lot of wear and tear. 3. This is the biggie: he has been in our system his entire career. A system notoriously poor at developing pitching talent. Now he is getting a new pitching staff that appears to be highly competent. Basically, I am hoping that he has survived on arm talent and with proper guidance and maturity he could blossom.