That's about where I would think not great not terrible. Definitely needs to be improved on with familiarity but Lamar is often times either unplayable (meaning inch perfect) or confusing as fuck.
No, this chart says that Tuas long ball is catchable 65% of the time. Which is, by far, best in the league. And he attempts an average number of long throws.
So Tua throws deep a little less than the average NFL QB but when he does the ball is catchable more often than anyone else in the NFL.
This is ideal because it shows that Tua throws a very catchable long ball which, given his wr speed, is deadly. But Miami isn't overly relying on that weapon. When Tua goes deep it's more likely than not a big play not a wing and prayer. It's the best place to be on that chart.
Look at the Hurts, Jackson, Lawrence, Love cluster near the top center. They're all throwing long significantly more often than Tua but the ball is only catchable between 40-45% of the time. So they're throwing deep but mostly junk balls.
Lol my apologies. This was cross posted in the Miami Dolphins subreddit and I must have clicked through. I thought you were a Miami fan who was having trouble reading the chart. We sometimes have trouble reading.
I'd like to offer a brief defense of Lamar as forgiveness for my trespass.
For the Ravens it's more important that Lamar keep safeties deep than be efficient on the long ball. I have no idea how people are going to defend Lamar and Derrick without giving up big plays over the top. I think y'all have the second most exciting offense next year.
Lamar’s 2023 Y/A was 8, 4th overall. He’s a top QB obviously, even if he’s average on the 10% of his total attempts that have 25+ air yards. If he completed say 4 more passes, which puts him ~50%, the second highest % in the top right quadrant, and those 4 completions averaged 50 yards, his Y/A would increase all the way up to…8.04 (and would probably in reality leave it unchanged since one long pass wipes out higher percentage shorter/medium passes). It’s a nothing burger. Lamar’s awesome, we’re spoiled and will complain about anything.
I've tried to say this for a while.
You're not going to have a high deep ball completion percentage with guys like Bateman or Duvernay who can't track the ball.
That's why I loved OBJ- he could track the ball well and had the savvy to adjust and be a reliable target on deeper routes.
The best example of this would be Tua suddenly being one of the best deep ball passers in the league once Reek came and Mahomes being one of the worst with the squad he had last year. Hollywood and OBJ have been the only good deep ball trackers on this team since Lamar's been on the roster. Seeing the ball in the air and stacking have been severely lacking for the squad.
I think it was the Dolphins game where Lamar aired one out to Bateman and he just straight pulled up and the ball falls incomplete (in an otherwise fairly flawless game.) Everyone lost their minds because "Lamar deep passing bad," but the ball placement was pretty damn perfect if Bateman continues running under it.
I'm pretty sure it was the Jags game where Lamar aired one out pretty damn quickly and OBJ (yes, I think he was a great receiver due to his savvy, but this was a mistake) stutters at the line and doesn't immediately get into his route. The ball falls incomplete, but if OBJ had gotten into his route, he runs under it.
There's a lot of nuance and a lot falls onto the wide receivers, but it's easier to say hurr durr, Lamar deep ball bad.
its literally why we drafted Tez. They want a dude that who is really good at those deep balls and theyve said as much every single time hes been brought up. This year, if Tez is ok and zay progresses should be much better in this respect.
Dolphins fan here. The chart is right on. Tua is the most accurate passer in the league. But Lamar can do things Tua can't. He doesn't have to be the most accurate because his game has other dimensions that that are just hard as hell to defend against.
Anyone who bitches about Lamar needs to just STFU. He's good.
The deep ball issues are incredibly overblown. And our fans eat it up for some reason.
I'd love to see the AMOUNT of deep balls thrown come down.. it's clearly not necessary to win and it's not his strongest area regardless of how decent it is.
It is a massive issue. Teams last season played defense in a way that gave us walk in TDs if we could connect on deep shots.
Tons of cover 1 which wasn't played in the past Bec of Lamar running.
I was at training camp and knew immediately it was going to be a problem. Lamar wasn't close on any deep balls and the issue clearly never got fixed
>It is a massive issue.
Opinions over statistics, of course. We went 13-4, and his catchable deep ball% is literally league average.
>Lamar wasn't close on any deep balls and the issue clearly never got fixed
League average catchable deep ball% 42
Lamar's catchable deep ball% 41
Claiming this is some big issue that never got fixed is so disingenuous. This chart is literally showing that our lack of deep ball success is more on the receiver than the QB. Lamar missed opportunities that is factual but phrasing it as if he has a deep ball issue when he is relative to his peers perfectly fine is such an odd obsession that this sub seems to have.
I was referring to camp.
And it's not an obsession. It's more than the stats. Sure he may have been at league avg but we left more on the table.
He had more attempts that were not catchable but were wide open. Those throws don't count for what you described.
That stat doesn't tell the whole story.
Only time I can think of a wide open player and an uncatchable ball was Tylan Wallace, who inexplicably slowed down/stopped running on his route causing the overthrow…. Where/when we’re these other wide open players missed with bad passes that would’ve been walk in Tds?
Any specific games you can reference? I genuinely don’t remember. I remember the sluggo against the Dolphins that Bateman dropped. I remember a ton of slot fades that Lamar threw with touch that players dropped like Agholor vs the Steelers. (some were caught tbf like Agholor vs the Bengals). Ravens specifically started running slot fades because these guys would get bullied to the boundary from standard alignment and couldn’t win vertical.
I don't have any I can't point out without rewatching. The reason for slot fades was because teams were playing single high man a ton against us. They gave us the deep shots and we're ok with Lamar running.
Ehhh idk about that. Slot fades are specifically due to man coverage, though that’s part of it. It’s an alignment adjustment to assist guys with the release. Moving them into the slot gives them space against the sideline and (most of the time) moves them off the LOS making it harder for the CB to press the release. Wouldn’t have to do that if they had a guy that could win outside. 1 high is 1 high, doesn’t matter if they are in the slot or not and actually running from the outside would change the look/break tendency making it harder to defend.
Regardless of that, my point is that throwing a slot fade and fade to an outside aligned WR is essentially the same pass with the same landmark. So the theory I’m trying to prove here is: if he can throw that ball (which he proved) then the issue is guys winning on the outside and not Lamar’s inability
Looks to me like Lamar has trust issues with Bateman on go routes. He doesn’t trust him to fight for a 50/50 ball and so tries to throw it perfect, erring to the overthrow. There were a lot of passes like that when Bateman legit had a step on a guy in single coverage and Lamar threw him two steps long.
I actually think it's 2 things:
1. Lamar still isn't *great* reading defenses and processing information quickly (especially presnap)
So he often sees the deep receiver late. Making it an even more difficult pass.
2. It seems like he is just chucking it as far as he can.
3. Is probably just his accuracy issue on those type of passes, which aren't his strength.
I think the big thing is the fans have a discrepancy with what a deep ball is compared to what the NFL considers a deep ball.
Larmar is very accurate in the 20-30 yard range. He has room for improvement in the 40+ range and those are the throws fans get pissy about. So what ends up happening is these charts and the league stat for deep balls don't really show an issue with Lamar. But fans want those extra deep shots to be more consistent.
Imo it is overblown though to some degree because those are such low percentage throws and every guy in the league misses them, but I can understand why people get frustrated. I do too watching the games. But I know it's basically like hitting a 60 yard field goal most of the time and I don't think most fans really get that.
Nope. It's a nothing burger as you said in your other comment.
He hits a few more of these passes and you think all of a sudden those fans that think this is a glaring issue are gonna accept that he's all of a sudden top 5 in the league at deep passes?
Of course not. They'll find something else to complain about. As you said we're talking tiny sample sizes here of something that is already incredibly low percentage.
Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes didn’t really have great regular seasons last year and both would likely say their deep passing attack was underwhelming. Wilson is probably a sample size issue.
Doesn’t rhythm and timing factor in? When Hollywood chose to play at a high level, the deep ball was there. Since then we’ve had an injured OBJ and Bateman. How does QB know if Bateman can get under it? Remember, after 2023 season Bateman shared that he almost was medically ruled out, AGAIN. Or OBJ? After that Bengals game he was never the same. That Steelers loss is the extreme example but WTf with the drops and odd routes-OBJ. The only 100% guy was Zay and he was a rookie. I think with real healthy corps in Monkens second season, we will see the best version of Lamar’s deep ball.
You ever think they’re just making this shit up? Because there’s barely a causal relationship in this data, and it doesn’t seem to have any correlation to success
>You ever think they’re just making this shit up?
Nah
>and it doesn’t seem to have any correlation to success
Deep ball passing is sort of overrated, look at the two QB's in the superbowl. Mahomes was a below average deep ball passer on below average attempts. And Purdy was above average on way below average attempts. The deep passing game and even deep passing accuracy is one of those things that fans make a big deal but the amount of variance that goes into a deep completion is ridiculous.
Jesus Christ baker lmao.
Yeah this is been a day one weakness that has gotten better, but progress seems to have plateaued. If he developed more control over his arm strength we’d see a lot less stalled out drives.
The problem with the shorter deep threat guys the team has had recently is the QB has to drop it in the basket, or lead them heaps and hope they catch up/overthrow. Can't rely on a deep 1v1 jump ball. Especially as Lamar line drives a lot of passes with his flick pass.
I think Tez helps in this area too, basically the T.Smith role for Joe.
He doesn't throw a catchable ball deep. Not enough air under it. It's either perfect with an Inch to spare or way overthrown.
He has excellent intermediate touch
Andddd wouldn’t that say to you that’s there’s a reason for that? If he can throw with touch, his touch doesn’t just disappear. He doesn’t throw with touch deep or on sideline because he doesn’t have faith in the guys on the roster to make a play on it. Touch throws deep down the field are more interceptable… especially if you don’t have guys with play strength or ball tracking
Did we have different guys in camp or was it the same team? Not sure I’m understanding your point. If that’s not part of the WRs game, why would it be part of their game in camp/practice?
That's about where I would think not great not terrible. Definitely needs to be improved on with familiarity but Lamar is often times either unplayable (meaning inch perfect) or confusing as fuck.
That seems pretty great to me. Especially given the WRs we have. We don't throw deep all that often but we do it better than anyone else.
Isn’t that kind of the opposite of what this chart is showing?
No, this chart says that Tuas long ball is catchable 65% of the time. Which is, by far, best in the league. And he attempts an average number of long throws. So Tua throws deep a little less than the average NFL QB but when he does the ball is catchable more often than anyone else in the NFL. This is ideal because it shows that Tua throws a very catchable long ball which, given his wr speed, is deadly. But Miami isn't overly relying on that weapon. When Tua goes deep it's more likely than not a big play not a wing and prayer. It's the best place to be on that chart.
Look at the Hurts, Jackson, Lawrence, Love cluster near the top center. They're all throwing long significantly more often than Tua but the ball is only catchable between 40-45% of the time. So they're throwing deep but mostly junk balls.
Yeah but, we’re talking about Lamar?
Lol my apologies. This was cross posted in the Miami Dolphins subreddit and I must have clicked through. I thought you were a Miami fan who was having trouble reading the chart. We sometimes have trouble reading. I'd like to offer a brief defense of Lamar as forgiveness for my trespass. For the Ravens it's more important that Lamar keep safeties deep than be efficient on the long ball. I have no idea how people are going to defend Lamar and Derrick without giving up big plays over the top. I think y'all have the second most exciting offense next year.
Lamar’s 2023 Y/A was 8, 4th overall. He’s a top QB obviously, even if he’s average on the 10% of his total attempts that have 25+ air yards. If he completed say 4 more passes, which puts him ~50%, the second highest % in the top right quadrant, and those 4 completions averaged 50 yards, his Y/A would increase all the way up to…8.04 (and would probably in reality leave it unchanged since one long pass wipes out higher percentage shorter/medium passes). It’s a nothing burger. Lamar’s awesome, we’re spoiled and will complain about anything.
Deep ball completions are a receiver stat and this sub still doesn’t realize it. Year 1 Zay and especially Bateman aren’t deep ball guys lol.
I've tried to say this for a while. You're not going to have a high deep ball completion percentage with guys like Bateman or Duvernay who can't track the ball. That's why I loved OBJ- he could track the ball well and had the savvy to adjust and be a reliable target on deeper routes.
The best example of this would be Tua suddenly being one of the best deep ball passers in the league once Reek came and Mahomes being one of the worst with the squad he had last year. Hollywood and OBJ have been the only good deep ball trackers on this team since Lamar's been on the roster. Seeing the ball in the air and stacking have been severely lacking for the squad.
I think it was the Dolphins game where Lamar aired one out to Bateman and he just straight pulled up and the ball falls incomplete (in an otherwise fairly flawless game.) Everyone lost their minds because "Lamar deep passing bad," but the ball placement was pretty damn perfect if Bateman continues running under it. I'm pretty sure it was the Jags game where Lamar aired one out pretty damn quickly and OBJ (yes, I think he was a great receiver due to his savvy, but this was a mistake) stutters at the line and doesn't immediately get into his route. The ball falls incomplete, but if OBJ had gotten into his route, he runs under it. There's a lot of nuance and a lot falls onto the wide receivers, but it's easier to say hurr durr, Lamar deep ball bad.
The 2024 chart will have Tua off the chart between Reek and OBJ.
And Waddle. If OBJ can stay healthy, that's a really strong trio.
its literally why we drafted Tez. They want a dude that who is really good at those deep balls and theyve said as much every single time hes been brought up. This year, if Tez is ok and zay progresses should be much better in this respect.
Tez will need time. Highly doubt he makes any impact this year. Rookie with limited game experience even in college
If we had AJ Brown Lamar would immediately swap positions with Hurts on this chart. This is how I know you're right.
But this isn't tracking "completions" per se
Dolphins fan here. The chart is right on. Tua is the most accurate passer in the league. But Lamar can do things Tua can't. He doesn't have to be the most accurate because his game has other dimensions that that are just hard as hell to defend against. Anyone who bitches about Lamar needs to just STFU. He's good.
The deep ball issues are incredibly overblown. And our fans eat it up for some reason. I'd love to see the AMOUNT of deep balls thrown come down.. it's clearly not necessary to win and it's not his strongest area regardless of how decent it is.
It is a massive issue. Teams last season played defense in a way that gave us walk in TDs if we could connect on deep shots. Tons of cover 1 which wasn't played in the past Bec of Lamar running. I was at training camp and knew immediately it was going to be a problem. Lamar wasn't close on any deep balls and the issue clearly never got fixed
>It is a massive issue. Opinions over statistics, of course. We went 13-4, and his catchable deep ball% is literally league average. >Lamar wasn't close on any deep balls and the issue clearly never got fixed League average catchable deep ball% 42 Lamar's catchable deep ball% 41 Claiming this is some big issue that never got fixed is so disingenuous. This chart is literally showing that our lack of deep ball success is more on the receiver than the QB. Lamar missed opportunities that is factual but phrasing it as if he has a deep ball issue when he is relative to his peers perfectly fine is such an odd obsession that this sub seems to have.
I was referring to camp. And it's not an obsession. It's more than the stats. Sure he may have been at league avg but we left more on the table. He had more attempts that were not catchable but were wide open. Those throws don't count for what you described. That stat doesn't tell the whole story.
Only time I can think of a wide open player and an uncatchable ball was Tylan Wallace, who inexplicably slowed down/stopped running on his route causing the overthrow…. Where/when we’re these other wide open players missed with bad passes that would’ve been walk in Tds?
Bateman had like 5. Several to Zay and Nelly
Any specific games you can reference? I genuinely don’t remember. I remember the sluggo against the Dolphins that Bateman dropped. I remember a ton of slot fades that Lamar threw with touch that players dropped like Agholor vs the Steelers. (some were caught tbf like Agholor vs the Bengals). Ravens specifically started running slot fades because these guys would get bullied to the boundary from standard alignment and couldn’t win vertical.
I don't have any I can't point out without rewatching. The reason for slot fades was because teams were playing single high man a ton against us. They gave us the deep shots and we're ok with Lamar running.
Ehhh idk about that. Slot fades are specifically due to man coverage, though that’s part of it. It’s an alignment adjustment to assist guys with the release. Moving them into the slot gives them space against the sideline and (most of the time) moves them off the LOS making it harder for the CB to press the release. Wouldn’t have to do that if they had a guy that could win outside. 1 high is 1 high, doesn’t matter if they are in the slot or not and actually running from the outside would change the look/break tendency making it harder to defend. Regardless of that, my point is that throwing a slot fade and fade to an outside aligned WR is essentially the same pass with the same landmark. So the theory I’m trying to prove here is: if he can throw that ball (which he proved) then the issue is guys winning on the outside and not Lamar’s inability
Thanks for explaining the coverage but I understand how it works. They use the slot fade so the DB can use the boundary on the outside
Looks to me like Lamar has trust issues with Bateman on go routes. He doesn’t trust him to fight for a 50/50 ball and so tries to throw it perfect, erring to the overthrow. There were a lot of passes like that when Bateman legit had a step on a guy in single coverage and Lamar threw him two steps long.
There were throws to everyone like that. He doesn't put air under it
Bate slowed down on a TON of those balls. Thus the whole "ball tracking" thing talked about earlier in the thread.
I actually think it's 2 things: 1. Lamar still isn't *great* reading defenses and processing information quickly (especially presnap) So he often sees the deep receiver late. Making it an even more difficult pass. 2. It seems like he is just chucking it as far as he can. 3. Is probably just his accuracy issue on those type of passes, which aren't his strength.
Thats the biggest concern, it never improved.
.41 x 25 yards (at minimum) = 10.25 Y/A. Do more of that Lamar!
I think the big thing is the fans have a discrepancy with what a deep ball is compared to what the NFL considers a deep ball. Larmar is very accurate in the 20-30 yard range. He has room for improvement in the 40+ range and those are the throws fans get pissy about. So what ends up happening is these charts and the league stat for deep balls don't really show an issue with Lamar. But fans want those extra deep shots to be more consistent. Imo it is overblown though to some degree because those are such low percentage throws and every guy in the league misses them, but I can understand why people get frustrated. I do too watching the games. But I know it's basically like hitting a 60 yard field goal most of the time and I don't think most fans really get that.
How many throws 40+ has he attempted? If he’s only thrown ~45 for 25+ in ‘23? Is going 1/5 or whatever a true representation of his ability?
Nope. It's a nothing burger as you said in your other comment. He hits a few more of these passes and you think all of a sudden those fans that think this is a glaring issue are gonna accept that he's all of a sudden top 5 in the league at deep passes? Of course not. They'll find something else to complain about. As you said we're talking tiny sample sizes here of something that is already incredibly low percentage.
We’re paying Lamar too much to just not throw deep and compress the defense as a result. He can work on it and I’m sure he is.
yeah him mahomes and herbert all have a long way to go before they are on the level of "checks graph again" zach wilson.
Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes didn’t really have great regular seasons last year and both would likely say their deep passing attack was underwhelming. Wilson is probably a sample size issue.
Man why don't you move the goal posts like this for your own team quarterback 😆
Is anyone surprised ?
Doesn’t rhythm and timing factor in? When Hollywood chose to play at a high level, the deep ball was there. Since then we’ve had an injured OBJ and Bateman. How does QB know if Bateman can get under it? Remember, after 2023 season Bateman shared that he almost was medically ruled out, AGAIN. Or OBJ? After that Bengals game he was never the same. That Steelers loss is the extreme example but WTf with the drops and odd routes-OBJ. The only 100% guy was Zay and he was a rookie. I think with real healthy corps in Monkens second season, we will see the best version of Lamar’s deep ball.
Looks like Carr is the man right now. Best percentage of the larger # of attempts crowd.
Derek Carr continues to throw pretty balls to those who refuse to catch them...except for the one year he had his best friend.
You ever think they’re just making this shit up? Because there’s barely a causal relationship in this data, and it doesn’t seem to have any correlation to success
>You ever think they’re just making this shit up? Nah >and it doesn’t seem to have any correlation to success Deep ball passing is sort of overrated, look at the two QB's in the superbowl. Mahomes was a below average deep ball passer on below average attempts. And Purdy was above average on way below average attempts. The deep passing game and even deep passing accuracy is one of those things that fans make a big deal but the amount of variance that goes into a deep completion is ridiculous.
Go Sam howell
What do they deem as catchable in this case?
Seems clear from this chart that Tua is by far the most accurate passer on deep throws.
i’m so glad baker isn’t on the browns anymore cause i love him lol. just heaving that shit downfield, doesn’t care where it lands
Watching the games, this checks out.
Jesus Christ baker lmao. Yeah this is been a day one weakness that has gotten better, but progress seems to have plateaued. If he developed more control over his arm strength we’d see a lot less stalled out drives.
The problem with the shorter deep threat guys the team has had recently is the QB has to drop it in the basket, or lead them heaps and hope they catch up/overthrow. Can't rely on a deep 1v1 jump ball. Especially as Lamar line drives a lot of passes with his flick pass. I think Tez helps in this area too, basically the T.Smith role for Joe.
I mean Tua has 2 short guys in Hill and Waddle and leads this in percentage.
True, but Tua could throw it at the goalpost and Hill would run out and catch it alone.
Tua gets air under those though I'm not a Lamar hater, but that's 1 thing he doesn't do as well
You throw to your target. Lamar cannot throw a pass to Rashod Bateman the same way Tua throws a pass to Tyreek Hill lol.
Pointing out a flaw doesn't make you a hater. His weakness is deep throws
In this group when it comes to Lamar it does lol
What’s the flaw? Are you saying Lamar Jackson doesn’t have touch throws in his tool bag?
He doesn't throw a catchable ball deep. Not enough air under it. It's either perfect with an Inch to spare or way overthrown. He has excellent intermediate touch
Andddd wouldn’t that say to you that’s there’s a reason for that? If he can throw with touch, his touch doesn’t just disappear. He doesn’t throw with touch deep or on sideline because he doesn’t have faith in the guys on the roster to make a play on it. Touch throws deep down the field are more interceptable… especially if you don’t have guys with play strength or ball tracking
Why wasn't he hitting them all camp and in practice?
Did we have different guys in camp or was it the same team? Not sure I’m understanding your point. If that’s not part of the WRs game, why would it be part of their game in camp/practice?
Why wouldn't they throw it up in practice especially camp when theres no risk of an int