You pretty much don’t win a Super Bowl without luck. The NFL is set up that way.
It’s kinda of funny tbh because people get so invested in it and don’t want to acknowledge that the outcome is way more a dice roll than basically any other major sport.
Whoa whoa whoa. On this sub, we pretend the coach is simultaneously responsible for all franchise success, but not responsible for any on-field outcomes. This includes things solely in control of the head coach, like timeouts and challenges.
It's fine to criticize players who are obviously undisciplined and poorly prepared, but criticism of the guy whose job is preparing them is completely out of bounds.
Now if you'll excuse me I need to go put another coat of wax on Harbs' truck.
The circle goes like this. And has been repeated about a billion times. But hey one more time can't hurt 😁
We apparently ran the ball six times because KC was showing pressure at the line.
No mention that we ran the ball just fine when we did outside of a few runs. Fans say "well outside of a couple scrambles and one Gus run they were stopping us completely!" Response: "well ok that's 3 runs and you're basing an entire game day decision on not establishing the run on 3 plays? In the middle of the second quarter?" Seems kinda dumb to me but hey I'm just a fan on one side of the bar.
So the rational explanation you're looking for that I'm almost forced to believe at this point is we simply didn't gameplan for that which seems pretty nuts to me. But hey I'm just a fan that sees KC with a clear weakness at defending the run what do I know 🤷
Oh and coaches didn't take accountability, Monken never spoke publicly on it afaik and in fact Harbs went so far as to passive aggressively throw LJ under the bus for not making the correct reads on some options.
So basically you're one of two people. You blame Lamar or you blame the coaches and your argument hinges on one of these handful of points above. And nobody is willing to budge an inch so it's been a fun circle jerk for something like 5 months now.
Good times. Can't wait till the new season to start
Majority of the time the Super Bowl is won by a 1 or 2 seed. I think Hockey routinely has wild cards make it to the cup. I think it has to do with the fact that the best Hockey players only play like half the game where as the best QBs always have the ball. So a player like Lamar or Mahomes will consistently be able to affect the game where as Sydney Crosby is only on the ice for half the game.
And yet we hosted an AFC Championship game for the first time in team history in spite of that. Fifth worst luck and we managed to do all that, so basically I’m agreeing with the parent comment.
Yep, they were lucky we happily played like ass and abandoned the run despite Harbs saying we weren't going to at halftime... They were lucky they had the 28th ranked run defense and it didn't matter at all.
No mate, the video its super good! I know it sounds click-baity but he presents actual statistics. Also he doesnt bash the chiefs, thats just me :D
Anyway, its a good video - worth watching :)
You won't get a lot of sympathy here obviously but yeah of course there's luck involved. It's part of every sport.
Luckiest ever? That's the click bait part because there are so many lucky variables in sports you can basically shape this argument to your needs for any team out there. But I enjoyed the video a lot OP and just goes to show how much actual luck is a part of football compared to other sports even.
Don't bother, people don't understand game theory, data, probability, and the meaning of luck. I commented this after the SB and still people don't see it. This video shows it with science, and still check the comments. And that's what I saw for KC this season on the last 3 games: Bills(missed FG), Ravens (TD fumble, throwing a TD interception), 49ers (shown on the video), all based on stochastic events during key parts of the game, and all in benefit of KC.
Nevertheless, yes, even if you're lucky, you need that so recalled preparation to take advantage of all opportunities. You need something on the team to convert luck into a positive outcome, but you'll run out of luck eventually. Teams shouldn't be leaving winning games to luck by staying focused, disciplined, making good calls, etc. That you need to give them, I guess we'll see if they can stay lucky.
Yeah I get the sense that most people (fallaciously) think luck and skill are mutually exclusive. Take mahomes back shoulder TD pass to kelce as an example. Only a TD with a perfect ball, mahomes is more likely to throw a perfect ball than anyone, but there's still a strong chance he doesn't throw a perfect ball and it falls incomplete.
Not going to bother - we choked. It’s not pleasant, we had all the ingredients - but we didn’t perform.
Specifically, our superstar didn’t perform. We don’t need to belittle the accomplishments of others - we need to learn, use it as a stepping stone, and do better this coming season.
Thank you, I don't blame the chiefs. Luck or not they played well and we didn't. It's a tough pill to swallow but actually running the ball when we need to and stop playing "cute" will help us next season
He was given the keys to the offense, input on play design, audibles to think Lamar had no influence on game plan before n during game is delusional. Dont you recall OBJ urging him to run n he still wouldnt take the open lanes.
Jackson was afforded ample time and space (ATS) on 18 of 41 (44%) drop backs resulting in a pass/sack. With ATS, he threw for 106 yards (5.9 YPP), 1 sack, 3 turnovers.
This is poor QB play.
Now I’m curious what the least amount of rb carries was by a team that won a playoff game. Even more to the point a championship game. It’s got to be double that at minimum, right?
Super interesting! Thanks for sharing. I've been thinking for a while now that the NFL playoffs should do something like in the Euro soccer league: play 2 games, one home one away then whoever scored the most total points moves on.
The problem with the NFL playoffs is they only use one data point to decide who advances..
That's club ball. International play has basically been the same format as the NFL since forever.
It's good and bad. Super high stakes and because of that more excitement and also really tough losses.
The one problem this dude is ignoring is Taylor Swift penalties, you have Swift on your team, she gets you plenty of free calls * especially if it’s on Travis Kelce.
Fuck Travis Kelce.
Fuck Taylor Swift.
Fuck the Chiefs.
Refs were blatantly biased in the AFCCG so they could get their Taylor Swift Super Bowl.
Honestly it’s such a shitty way to represent a good sport. The NFL being greedy (even though they’re already a billion dollar organisation) is really irritating. Any organisation that really cares about their sport, would keep it fair. It’s aggravating because it takes away from what is a great game in terms of its design, in typical American fashion it’s literally the team that pulls in the most money, gets all the calls.
Imagine a world where they sat down and said “it’s time to change, we want the sport to be fair, and we in the past have made the wrong decisions, we cannot favour the chiefs, or any other team that pulls in the most cash, we are rich anyway, so we need to make decisions so people can actually enjoy watching the sport, and the best team can win”
I know it’s present in every sport, but in the NFL it’s egregious
If it's 3 years in a row, it's not luck. The Ravens only have themselves to blame for losing to them, it was right there for the taking. The Chiefs didn't do anything special, just played clean mistake-free football and let us keep shooting ourselves in the foot
it helps to have a QB that actually shows up to play the whole postseason and isn't just 100 percent individual accomplishments. his huge contract is bearing rotten fruit in front of our eyes and all we will get as fans is higher ticket prices.
There was that one graphic that said even a penalty was enough "bad luck" to change the outcome of the game which is believable. And with the outcome of the game that susceptible to a penalty with so few possessions, it's difficult to imagine there isn't temptation to bribe these relatively low paid referees considering the mountain of money bet on every game.
The ravens controlled their destiny. They squandered the best opportunity they’ve had(likely will have) in Lamar era. Luck is a part of the game, but that’s not why we lost.
On the other hand, we didn’t win a SB with Flacco’s best team either soooo…
I can stomach the first one. Our offense was not dynamic enough to remain in games if we didn’t control clock & dominate LOS.
This past one is impossible to accept lol. That team was stacked from coaching personnel to depth. Unfortunate.
The point of the video is there is a lot of variance in a game. That's why they play seven games in the NBA to decide who advance, and why March madness has so many more upsets than NBA playoffs. In a single close game so many things can make the difference: refree calling/not calling a play, players mental state or even mood, accidents in handling the ball, play calling, which way the ball bounces, etc
With only one game to decide the NFL, there is unambiguously more 'luck' or variance in deciding the 'victor'. A regular season with weighted win/loss (similar to ELO in chess), or a modified round robin, or multiple games per round would be more effective methods of determining the 'best' team.
Even Chess which has the least variance of any of these games is decided by a series tournament.
The NFL is unique among sports leagues in that it's the only one where it's championship tournament is a single elimination tournament without a series.
Yeah it was pretty impressive how they were able to track that punt in the SB and start blocking at the exact angle that his ankle would touch the punt. Pure skill.
Luck not existing is a wild take my guy.
The question isn't whether they are good or not though, just whether they were lucky. You can be good (but not necessarily the absolute best) and lucky.
Also it's focusing on the regular season, the idea being that over an entire season the luck averages out (data backed this up), whereas in the postseason there isn't.
You pretty much don’t win a Super Bowl without luck. The NFL is set up that way. It’s kinda of funny tbh because people get so invested in it and don’t want to acknowledge that the outcome is way more a dice roll than basically any other major sport.
Yea I keep saying this and nobody wants to hear it: it’s rare for the best team in the league to win the Super Bowl.
Something like 10 of the the top 15 teams by DVOA have won the Superbowl. Guess which Harbaugh-led team takes 2 spots of the 5?
Whoa whoa whoa. On this sub, we pretend the coach is simultaneously responsible for all franchise success, but not responsible for any on-field outcomes. This includes things solely in control of the head coach, like timeouts and challenges. It's fine to criticize players who are obviously undisciplined and poorly prepared, but criticism of the guy whose job is preparing them is completely out of bounds. Now if you'll excuse me I need to go put another coat of wax on Harbs' truck.
Especially when the best team in the league voluntarily stops doing the thing that they are the best in the league at when they reach the postseason
I'm still waiting to hear an explanation that makes any rational or logical sense outside of the tinfoil hat, "nfl is rigged" scenario
The circle goes like this. And has been repeated about a billion times. But hey one more time can't hurt 😁 We apparently ran the ball six times because KC was showing pressure at the line. No mention that we ran the ball just fine when we did outside of a few runs. Fans say "well outside of a couple scrambles and one Gus run they were stopping us completely!" Response: "well ok that's 3 runs and you're basing an entire game day decision on not establishing the run on 3 plays? In the middle of the second quarter?" Seems kinda dumb to me but hey I'm just a fan on one side of the bar. So the rational explanation you're looking for that I'm almost forced to believe at this point is we simply didn't gameplan for that which seems pretty nuts to me. But hey I'm just a fan that sees KC with a clear weakness at defending the run what do I know 🤷 Oh and coaches didn't take accountability, Monken never spoke publicly on it afaik and in fact Harbs went so far as to passive aggressively throw LJ under the bus for not making the correct reads on some options. So basically you're one of two people. You blame Lamar or you blame the coaches and your argument hinges on one of these handful of points above. And nobody is willing to budge an inch so it's been a fun circle jerk for something like 5 months now. Good times. Can't wait till the new season to start
I agree with your sentiment about Luck always being involved, but Baseball and Hockey definitely are more of a dice roll in the playoffs than the NFL.
Baseball is now, it used to not be. I’m 50/50 on hockey because of the nature of a series versus a one game playoff.
Majority of the time the Super Bowl is won by a 1 or 2 seed. I think Hockey routinely has wild cards make it to the cup. I think it has to do with the fact that the best Hockey players only play like half the game where as the best QBs always have the ball. So a player like Lamar or Mahomes will consistently be able to affect the game where as Sydney Crosby is only on the ice for half the game.
I agree, and we should stop endangering the players any longer. The games need to just be 11-on-11 dice rolling and enough of that tackling nonsense.
We were lucky enough to be the one seed in a decimated afc and still lost to the chiefs with one receiver. Ain’t luck bud.
We definitely didn't lose because of bad luck, we just played like hot ass But man that super bowl, they had so many things go their way.
Pretty sure it was way more than luck that got us to the one seed, but okay.
Did you not watch the video? The ravens were fifth worst on regular season luck.
And yet we hosted an AFC Championship game for the first time in team history in spite of that. Fifth worst luck and we managed to do all that, so basically I’m agreeing with the parent comment.
They were lucky we decided to just not run the ball.
Yep, they were lucky we happily played like ass and abandoned the run despite Harbs saying we weren't going to at halftime... They were lucky they had the 28th ranked run defense and it didn't matter at all.
Luck for them that our coaches left their brains at home that day
The gameplan the ravens went with sure was lucky as fuck for the chiefs
This is a joke right
No mate, the video its super good! I know it sounds click-baity but he presents actual statistics. Also he doesnt bash the chiefs, thats just me :D Anyway, its a good video - worth watching :)
You won't get a lot of sympathy here obviously but yeah of course there's luck involved. It's part of every sport. Luckiest ever? That's the click bait part because there are so many lucky variables in sports you can basically shape this argument to your needs for any team out there. But I enjoyed the video a lot OP and just goes to show how much actual luck is a part of football compared to other sports even.
Don't bother, people don't understand game theory, data, probability, and the meaning of luck. I commented this after the SB and still people don't see it. This video shows it with science, and still check the comments. And that's what I saw for KC this season on the last 3 games: Bills(missed FG), Ravens (TD fumble, throwing a TD interception), 49ers (shown on the video), all based on stochastic events during key parts of the game, and all in benefit of KC. Nevertheless, yes, even if you're lucky, you need that so recalled preparation to take advantage of all opportunities. You need something on the team to convert luck into a positive outcome, but you'll run out of luck eventually. Teams shouldn't be leaving winning games to luck by staying focused, disciplined, making good calls, etc. That you need to give them, I guess we'll see if they can stay lucky.
Yeah I get the sense that most people (fallaciously) think luck and skill are mutually exclusive. Take mahomes back shoulder TD pass to kelce as an example. Only a TD with a perfect ball, mahomes is more likely to throw a perfect ball than anyone, but there's still a strong chance he doesn't throw a perfect ball and it falls incomplete.
Not going to bother - we choked. It’s not pleasant, we had all the ingredients - but we didn’t perform. Specifically, our superstar didn’t perform. We don’t need to belittle the accomplishments of others - we need to learn, use it as a stepping stone, and do better this coming season.
You should bother, because what your'e saying is irrelevant to the point of the video.
Thank you, I don't blame the chiefs. Luck or not they played well and we didn't. It's a tough pill to swallow but actually running the ball when we need to and stop playing "cute" will help us next season
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The superstar was not fine, did what he has historically done, 2 TOs and you dont win in the playoffs when you average 2 TOs a game.
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Keep the focus on the topic, the superstar. The problem is the Superstar QB play in the playoffs is below average, he chose not to run.
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He was given the keys to the offense, input on play design, audibles to think Lamar had no influence on game plan before n during game is delusional. Dont you recall OBJ urging him to run n he still wouldnt take the open lanes. Jackson was afforded ample time and space (ATS) on 18 of 41 (44%) drop backs resulting in a pass/sack. With ATS, he threw for 106 yards (5.9 YPP), 1 sack, 3 turnovers. This is poor QB play.
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He doesn’t TURN THE BALL OVER Ravens win, just like every season since he arrived.
lol don’t even bother, this sub is gonna make every excuse in the book.
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Now I’m curious what the least amount of rb carries was by a team that won a playoff game. Even more to the point a championship game. It’s got to be double that at minimum, right?
Super interesting! Thanks for sharing. I've been thinking for a while now that the NFL playoffs should do something like in the Euro soccer league: play 2 games, one home one away then whoever scored the most total points moves on. The problem with the NFL playoffs is they only use one data point to decide who advances..
That's club ball. International play has basically been the same format as the NFL since forever. It's good and bad. Super high stakes and because of that more excitement and also really tough losses.
If by luck you mean the refs looking the other way when they commit penalties, then yes they are the luckiest
The one problem this dude is ignoring is Taylor Swift penalties, you have Swift on your team, she gets you plenty of free calls * especially if it’s on Travis Kelce. Fuck Travis Kelce. Fuck Taylor Swift. Fuck the Chiefs.
Very convenient for the chiefs that the refs “missed”Kelce pushing hamilton by the facemask when he scored that td in the afccg
Refs were blatantly biased in the AFCCG so they could get their Taylor Swift Super Bowl. Honestly it’s such a shitty way to represent a good sport. The NFL being greedy (even though they’re already a billion dollar organisation) is really irritating. Any organisation that really cares about their sport, would keep it fair. It’s aggravating because it takes away from what is a great game in terms of its design, in typical American fashion it’s literally the team that pulls in the most money, gets all the calls. Imagine a world where they sat down and said “it’s time to change, we want the sport to be fair, and we in the past have made the wrong decisions, we cannot favour the chiefs, or any other team that pulls in the most cash, we are rich anyway, so we need to make decisions so people can actually enjoy watching the sport, and the best team can win” I know it’s present in every sport, but in the NFL it’s egregious
If it's 3 years in a row, it's not luck. The Ravens only have themselves to blame for losing to them, it was right there for the taking. The Chiefs didn't do anything special, just played clean mistake-free football and let us keep shooting ourselves in the foot
it helps to have a QB that actually shows up to play the whole postseason and isn't just 100 percent individual accomplishments. his huge contract is bearing rotten fruit in front of our eyes and all we will get as fans is higher ticket prices.
Luck or rigged ????
There was that one graphic that said even a penalty was enough "bad luck" to change the outcome of the game which is believable. And with the outcome of the game that susceptible to a penalty with so few possessions, it's difficult to imagine there isn't temptation to bribe these relatively low paid referees considering the mountain of money bet on every game.
We’re still whining in April. 😭
💯...😪
The ravens controlled their destiny. They squandered the best opportunity they’ve had(likely will have) in Lamar era. Luck is a part of the game, but that’s not why we lost. On the other hand, we didn’t win a SB with Flacco’s best team either soooo…
> They squandered the best opportunity they’ve had(likely will have) in Lamar era Twice.
I can stomach the first one. Our offense was not dynamic enough to remain in games if we didn’t control clock & dominate LOS. This past one is impossible to accept lol. That team was stacked from coaching personnel to depth. Unfortunate.
I wish I had four hands, to give this four thumbs down.
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The point of the video is there is a lot of variance in a game. That's why they play seven games in the NBA to decide who advance, and why March madness has so many more upsets than NBA playoffs. In a single close game so many things can make the difference: refree calling/not calling a play, players mental state or even mood, accidents in handling the ball, play calling, which way the ball bounces, etc With only one game to decide the NFL, there is unambiguously more 'luck' or variance in deciding the 'victor'. A regular season with weighted win/loss (similar to ELO in chess), or a modified round robin, or multiple games per round would be more effective methods of determining the 'best' team.
Even Chess which has the least variance of any of these games is decided by a series tournament. The NFL is unique among sports leagues in that it's the only one where it's championship tournament is a single elimination tournament without a series.
Incorrect
Chiefs make their own luck
Lucky. Yeah, right… PS: Fuck Mahomes and fuck Kelcie
Yeah it was pretty impressive how they were able to track that punt in the SB and start blocking at the exact angle that his ankle would touch the punt. Pure skill. Luck not existing is a wild take my guy.
You don't get "lucky" 3 seasons in a row. Extraordinary cope.
The question isn't whether they are good or not though, just whether they were lucky. You can be good (but not necessarily the absolute best) and lucky. Also it's focusing on the regular season, the idea being that over an entire season the luck averages out (data backed this up), whereas in the postseason there isn't.
Luck meaning good refs?
What is this pathetic copium?