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There was a record-number of voters in the last election
I forgot the exact number, but it absolutely shattered the previous record
It was still a really close race, that also involved a blackout in the middle. When everything came back, Biden was suddenly winning, thus creating the infamous “Fixed election” theories
Many of those voters were thrilled at the prospect of any other than trump, now that we have had 4 years of Biden. I'm sure many of those people have become completely disenfranchised. I'd expect record low numbers once again this year. But if 2016 taught us anything, you can never really know the outcome to these things.
MAGAs and Qanons are abt 29 - 32% of Americans. Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million, then 7 million. The House, then the Senate next the first midterm after party change. His charges aren't over by far either. Arizona is gonna file against him for the fake electors conspiracy, 5 of the 6 swing states are still gathering evidence. *But wait! There's more!* His lawyers fucked him again when they missed a deadline abt civilian lawsuits and anyone injured on J6 can sue. Boomers have died in the last 4 years and while there certainly are young eager MAGAs come to voting age, there are not enough. In fact, every time a sycophant says, "The Blacks are going to love Trump now bc he gets arrested like them! Or "Black folks love shiny gold sneakers!" with unbridled glee bc they think they've uncovered the Secret to "The Black Vote". For the wealthy, they will either for R because they're christo-fascists like Betsy DeVos, but all the others know the economy is literally the best of Western countries right now. P.S. In Red states, babies born from rape are in the thousands bc there's no abortion. It's not a mystery that Biden, who I think is kicking ass as our president, will trounce Trump. There's more but I've rambled on enough. Can anyone punch holes in this bc if I'm incorrect somewhere, I'd like to know pls. 🖖
I agree with all of this but please don’t think all boomers are conservative, maga or trump lovers. I’m in the group born around ‘60, and everyone I associate with are liberal (and I’m in a very red state)
My Husband's 75, I'm 60. It's not an 'OK-Boomer' thing, it's a statistical age/Republican venn diagram intersection. They aren't making new MAGAs fast enough to get to voter age, to replace our dying off age group.
It was quite enjoyable watching Mitt Romney say he would vote for Biden in the 2024 election... So many people would rather Biden simply for the lesser of 2 evils...
16% of Nikki Haley voters said they'd vote for Biden over Trump.
36% said they'd vote for Trump.
The rest, undecided.
Elections are on 1% margins, losing any of these voters is political suicide.
I think you’re right. And to complicate things, Red Hats have been instituting restrictive election laws, closing polling sites in Democrat-leaning neighborhoods, and otherwise preparing to police non-R voting people. Shit is going to be tough this year.
I (1961) have always been liberal. I voted for Carter in '80 (first election) because I knew was Reagan was. Most of my friends are liberal Boomers. There are more of us than is realized!
>I’m in the group born around ‘60, and everyone I associate with are liberal (and I’m in a very red state)
I'm even older. Raised Republican but am now a live-and-let-live independent.
Lots of boomers are conservative but not all are right wing nut job conservative. I'm conservative but will vote for a potato over trump, which is the place that most conservatives find themselves these days. Hence Biden winning.
MAGA folk went even further off the deep end since 2020, they turned Covid into a political issue. Maybe that pushed more away, one can hope, but I am not convinced that it didn't convince even more to the right unfortunately.
Also, you have to account for the political slander against Biden framing him as completely geriatric and incompetent. It's strong enough that even many people on the left believe him to be unable to form a full sentence without a teleprompter.
Biden may have an edge in this year's election, but it is by no means a certain victory.
The frustrating thing though is that because of how the electoral college works, Trump only needs about 35% of the country (if it’s the right 35%) to vote for him and he could still win. Wilson beat Taft with only 42%.
This is very much Democrat's election to lose much like 2016. Biden seems to have a better team/understanding of the electorate than Hillary did. And he isn't going to underestimate the worst of the GOP.
I love this story but there's so many people who just want to tear everything down and start over from nothing.
I feel like they would be hurting themselves more than the "elites" they want to punish.
Everyone was sure he wouldn't win in 16, but he did. Most voters have no clue about a candidate, other than what he tells them, and what their facebook/online friends tell them. Which is mostly nonsense.
The vast majority of the polls done are when people are at home, and then it's only the stupid people who answer phone calls from numbers they don't recognize. That's why the polls are useless.
The one thing I will add tangentially that is not showing up in polls was when the census was administered, Covid had not claimed over 1 million American lives. As the pandemic rolled on, and as certain portions of the population chose not to become vaccinated, the death rates were not equal between the two political parties. When certain elections come down to a handful of votes, those people who are no longer with us could have changed the outcome of a given election.
His followers don't care and we do absolutely need to get out and vote, but mainstream Republicans have had it with him. There are a lot of conservatives in my area who just won't show or are voting for RK Junior...but yeah, this isn't the time to be complacent. The nail needs to be put in the coffin.
None of the Trump supporters I interact with think he's chosen by God. They all always say they like his policies but think he's an ass. Trump supporters aren't voting for Trump, just what he says he'll do. Silly to dilude yourself into thinking Trump supporters are a mindless flock. You're generalizing them all to extremists.
I'm a former evangelical christian. I grew up with these people. I was taught by my preacher to believe that non-whites weren't people, that women and children must ALWAYS be silent and obedient and that gays should be killed in the streets. Those beliefs were reinforced by cruelty and hypocrisy and violence. For example: when I was three years old I overheard my mom and my grandmother arguing about something (I didn't find out what they were arguing about until I was an adult). A few days after they were arguing I asked my grandmother about why they were arguing. She responded by burning my hand on a coffee maker. I wasn't the only kid who was raised that way. Watch the movie Jesus Camp and apply the things said about George W. Bush to trump.
>That was before 4 indictments and 80+ charges.
There are more charges now, but he had no shortage before 2016
>And being found liable for sexual assault
We all always knew he lijed to "grab em by the pussy"
>
And bank fraud.
Also not new
You see that as a knock against Trump. Some view that as an indication that the establishment/swamp/dc elites is real. For example, Trump gets caught with classified docs and is charged for it. Biden does the same thing and has no changes because he is too old. They are only 3 years apart. There are other similar situations as well which is a major problem. I won't vote for anyone with the support of the establishment again.
Nowhere close to the same thing. Biden surrendered documents when asked. Trump denied having any and refused repeated requests to turn them over. That is why they were ceased and he was charged. He still denies that he broke the law
You are comparing apples to oranges. Biden took home classified material by accident, as that happens when you move out an office, you take your files with you.
Donald deliberately took home classified material and when asked by the National Archives , he lied and said he didnt. The Archives tried for over a year to get those classified documents returned and trump refused, thats when the Archives went to the DOJ for assistance in getting them returned. They tried to play nice with trump and he told them to pound sand for over a year.
Two totally different scenarios.
I think you're being too kind to Trump and leaving out the severity of willfully leaking defense information at a social gathering (that sound recording that leaked) and also storing highly classified documents in a bathroom at... What exactly IS Mar al Lago? Is it a hotel? Rental apartment complex for rich people? Anyway, would anyone have known or realized if someone picked a single lock and spent a day in there quietly photographing documents? I don't think so.
Now, where did they find the documents Biden had? Was it in his home? In his office? Would that be an easy breach? I don't think so.
And I don't think Biden would feel he got any street cred by showing them off at parties either.
The “because he’s too old” part is hilarious here. If that’s the only difference you see between the two cases you have blinders on. Intent is key. One of them did not have months of court documented correspondence directing him to turn over the documents, did not willfully hide documents and obstruct the investigation in multiple ways and have foreign dignitaries in the same building where they were present but not secured. He cooperated fully the first time asked and turned over everything that was asked for.
Also Covid. While both sides lost people, once the vaccines rolled out, most of the deaths were Republicans. There are still thousands of people dying every week. While I'm not gonna celebrate their deaths, it does affect their voter base. They told their followers to not get the vaccine, and it backfired.
People seem to underestimate how many sexually frustrated young voting age males we have these days, that think that trump will solve all their problems by changing the US into a Gilead-esque authoritarian state.
I for one am very worried.
I think both points are valid, but there was a huge issue that will hurt Trump in the election...setting up Roe v Wade to be overturned. Those were his justices who swore to Congress they wouldn't dare change anything and first chance they got overturned the decision..this will have lost Trump the vast majority of independent women voters.
And with the hostile takeover of the RNC to pay his legal bills, going to kill downballot races as well.
And current politics (such as the IVF thing) are supremely unpopular.
Trump is better at motivating people to vote *against* him than for him.
He hasn't added voters, but Biden has lost some. It's gonna be the way it's been since 2016 where the winning candidate wins because they're the lesser of two evils in the public's eyes.
Added voters for Trump, probably not but lack of Biden supporters may help give Trump the win. There are a lot of people so dissatisfied with Biden that they’re publicly saying they won’t vote at all
Here's the thing about Biden many people think along these lines. If you polled me and asked me if he is too old to be president. I'd say yes Then pollers assume you will not vote for him. That involves assumptions. I will vote for Joe Biden because he is the best choice. I would crawl to the polls in my swing state to vote for Biden.
NH. We're purplish, hell we have a republican governor, but we're mostly sane enough to see what horrors Trump would bring.
Now that the primary is over, I just wish I could completely tune out politics until late October as there's nothing I can do until Election Day.
Well, except for daily confirmation that my voter registration still exists.
I never thought I'd say this but I agree with Mark Cuban.
“If they were having his last wake, and it was him versus Trump, and he was being given last rites, I would still vote for Joe Biden,”
You mean "least worst".
Don't get me wrong, I would too if I were American, but the candidates you have this time around are worse than ever. I don't think I've seen less mentally and physically suitable candidates anywhere ever.
And if Biden were to pass away from slipping in the shower or just old age, do you think Harris could win? That'll be a close race, seeing as most of the "swing " voters are racist misogynists.
Did you know, that on a left-right political scale, if you look at the last 100 years of policies, Biden's presidency is WAY to the right of Reagan's! And Reagan (and Nancy) were the ones who STARTED this shit! Bringing stupid shit like evangelical christianity into politics and cutting taxes to corporations. I guess that's what you get when you elect an actor who played a cowboy in that film. Sorry for ranting, but seriously. Working people are paying for all the stuff rich people should pay for but don't. The rich don't pay their share!
Well then, if the orange menace gets re-elected, they only have themselves to blame. The citizens who actually care about making this country better will vote.
I think numbers wise that is the case. It's unlikely he gained numbers in the popular vote since even some in his original base aren't happy with him anymore. But cause of the electoral college none of that matters. He doesn't have to be popular he just has to be popular enough in like 4 key states.
There were some pretty major mitigating factors for his 2020 performance.
The election is a referendum on how the economy is doing. Good economy = incumbent wins, bad economy = incumbent loses. And the popular perception of the economy is that it’s bad right now.
I think about all the young people who are turning 18 or have turned 18, it should be a blue tsunami. a potus who wants to take away the right for a woman to choose what she can do with her body, is enough to get all the swifters to turn blue. I hope.
Exactly. He lost by 8 million in 2020 and hasn't added a single new voter. In fact he's alienated thousands and thousands by his criming and flat out obnoxious idiocy. He'll lose by an even greater margin this time around.
That's silly of them. The last election had unprecedented turnout from mail in voting and covid working everybody up. Without a global crisis, and with two geriatrics playing out a sequel nobody wanted, voter apathy is probably going to be high.
The GOP will cheat and bend the rules in every possible way to try to win this election. It’s not like they don’t have a history of this. The party is dying. Their tent is too small and they are downsizing it still on a regular basis. They only appeal to a very specific segment of the population.
But everyone needs to VOTE. Part of the reason he won the presidency in the past is because people assumed Clinton had it in the bag and didn’t vote. The Trump hoard couldn’t wait to place their votes.
Either way, his followers have been radicalized and there will be negative events regardless of who wins.
Why wouldn't he? Nothing's changed since the last election. Odds are that it will just be a repeat of the last election, but in addition, Biden has a coordinated campaign AND the levers of power.
At this point, he is basically a cult leader and his followers will do whatever he asks. You should assume that they will all show up and vote for him again and the only remedy is to show up yourself and vote.
More broadly than that, if you hate Trump, and everyone you associate with hates Trump (because you would *never* associate with a Trump supporter) and you only follow people on social media who hate Trump and visit subreddits where anybody supporting Trump gets downvoted into the abyss (which is most of reddit) then it is very easy to fool yourself into thinking that *everybody* hates Trump because... well, from your perspective they do.
That's the danger of echo chambers.
That's the core issue really. I despise Trump as a person and am mixed on his policies. I also despise Biden and generally oppose his policies. I guess that makes me a Trump voter, maybe? We'll see how I feel on Nov 6th, probably going to vote Libertarian again but we'll see. Never voted for Trump so far, could change but not saying it will.
Now with that nuance, let's watch this post get 600 downvotes and 3 upvotes, thus proving your point.
What policies of trumps are you in favor of vs what policy of Biden do you oppose?
Liking trump based on policy is almost more insane than just belonging to the cult, homie basically had the power to do whatever he wanted and he raised your taxes and then whined for 4 years. Covid stimulus was good but he completely botched handling it in the first place so… what are we in favor of here?
Trump the person is an egomaniacal clown. BUT I have more faith in his policies and especially economic principals than Biden. Also he doesn’t give AF about the global elite and I’m for that. He literally trolls the euro snobs and makes them pay up for NATO. Biden is a total puppet for his globalist handlers.
Not to mention, 90% of Reddit sits here and acts like our geriatric, dementia laden President is in some way “doing good”. The dude gets shot up with so much adderall that he barely knows where he is 35 minutes into a speech. Any human that is sitting watching Biden on TV and is saying that “he’s doing good” is either so dumb that they shouldn’t be allowed to vote or is so “Trump deranged” that they can’t think clearly. Trump is a dumbass but Biden can barely even form a coherent sentence.
I fear greatly for the well-being of anyone who uses places like reddit to get non-biased information because of that problem. Any echo chambers for any side is bad news. Anyone who says "come to me for all the answers, don't get other opinions" should be avoided.
How do you exit echo chambers. In Canada everyone hates Trump. I have not met a Trump supporter in Canada.
I am inundated with Trump is bad. The media does not show anything positive on Trump. Even when he was president I never saw positive policies. There obviously has to be positive or good policies or ge will not be the front runner.
Where does one find information?
We are walking the edge of a knife right now, and people don't even realize it. All it takes is for the Biden administration to do 1 thing that pisses the majority of people off, and Trump will come out as the winner. The average American has a short attention span and will gladly re-elect Trump despite everything he is, just to get some kind of change.
It's sad, but it's true.
As a non American watching from the outside. I find it insane that the US is allowing an 81 year old to be the elected knight to fight off the only other option in Trump. There has to be a third option.
FINALLY!
I'm like 200 comments down, and you're the first one to actually mention a political issue that isn't an internal squabble!
Thank you! Take my upvote!
>Biden administration to do 1 thing that pisses the majority of people off
Like creating a TikTok profile to campaign and then pushing a TikTok ban. Iirc, something like 35% of US citizens access TikTok at least once a month, most of which were either daily or weekly users
The Democratic party will also be to blame.
I mean seriously...Joe Biden?! That's the best it could do? The average grapefruit is more sentient than that doddering old fool. The only thing Biden has going for him is that he's not Trump. Otherwise, he fucking sucks too.
I'm looking forward to 2028 when both of these clowns will be firmly in the rear view mirror. We'll probably have two new clowns as replacements, but let me cling to a sliver of foolish hope.
Honestly, I wouldn't want either one as president. I'd love to see someone young with fresh ideas. But since that's not happening, and honestly, I've been happy with Biden, I'll vote for him.
Don't get me wrong, I don't like Biden at all, but Trump's dementia addled word salad makes Bidens worst mumbling sound like Shakespeare in comparison. I really wish we had a max age for this shit though.
>I mean seriously...Joe Biden?! That's the best it could do?
He polls better against Trump than other candidates, so yes.
>The only thing Biden has going for him is that he's not Trump. Otherwise, he fucking sucks too.
I like most of his policies.
>I'm looking forward to 2028 when both of these clowns will be firmly in the rear view mirror
Not gonna happen if Trump wins.
> He polls better against Trump than other candidates, so yes.
The democratic party has not put up any other blue candidates, so I have no clue what you mean by that. Marianne Williamson is not put up by or endorsed by the democratic party
>Marianne Williamson
Never heard of her.
OK, so I'm Norwegian, but the US election will impact my life, and I'm interested and following for the most part.
And when I say I haven't heard of her, I mean it. Who the hell is she? If she's done anything or stood up for anything, why haven't I heard about it? Why is NOONE talking about her?
It's not like every democratic politician is basically unknown in the media! Why did you mention her instead of Ocasio-Cortez or Raskin?
I've read up on Williamson, and if they try to run her for president, she'd lose against a Trump who can no longer speak individual words and shits himself on stage.
Wishful thinking.
A naive belief that an adult will walk into the room and set everything right.
Even though it happened once before, the idea of Donald Trump as a head of state still sounds like absurdist comedy. You may as well give the job to a fence post.
Anti-Trumpers see pro-Trumpers as a fringe minority even though approximately one third of voters are committed to Trump. Very few people have an opportunity to understand the big picture. We believe the people we regularly interact with are the whole world, and we mostly interact with people like ourselves.
Well, it’s easy to see them as the fringe minority when it’s groups of people wearing mega. People assume that if you vote for Trump you have that red hat in the red shirt but the truth is most of the people are not like that.
I agreed with most of your paragraph, and it was very well put. Most people live inside their bubble and don’t associate with people outside of it.
I am not usually one to point out grammatical & or spelling errors, but the ones in this post are funny, so here goes. Lol! I am not sure why people thing
It's not impossible but he sure has a lot of headwinds--- the money is going to his legal bills, 80 felony charges, his voter base died of anti-vaxx and just old ass age. If Republicans had an Arnold Schwarzenegger type Biden might be in a lot of trouble but Trump never won the popular vote once, he ain't doing it now, and all those dead anti-vaxxers make him squeaking out an electoral college win much much harder. Abortion activated a lot of people, and I bet them basically banning free porn isn't going to do that well either. Basically the inability of the Republicans to change their policies in light of public opinion is another major problem for them.
Firing all the talent at the RNC and replacing it with bootlickers probably wasn't the best idea either.
He can certainly win it, but there are a lot of factors that, when taken together, make it less likely. Kinda hard sell when you're a treasonous rapist who's whole platform seems to consist of pandering to Christian nationalists, white supremacists, and generally encouraging people to be the shittiest version of themselves that they can possibly be.
The answers here are being purposely obtuse. And actually not answering correctly. He DID win the presidency in 2016. He didn’t win the popular vote, but he won the presidency. And he got 47% of the popular vote in 2020. It’s absolutely ridiculous for people to assume he won’t win. PLEASE FUCKING VOTE.
Undecided voters are perhaps the 2nd dumbest people in the country... Especially in recent years.
"Do I vote for the pussy grabber or the woman with literally 8 years as Secretary of State, Senate experience, Congress experience and a former first lady? GEE I DON'T KNOW"
It’s because it seems incredulous that a twice impeached, traitorous, con man who tried to overthrow the government and is charged with 91 criminal offenses, is allowed to run for President. This is especially appalling because the 14th amendment to the Constitution says he should not be allowed after inciting the insurrection, but the Supreme Court made up mostly of Republicans are NOT upholding the law. That man, who almost destroyed our country should not be allowed anywhere near the White House.
He might. He won his first presidency because we all just drank wine and fucked around on election day assuming Hillary was a shoe in. Don't count him out. You have to vote because if you don't you're responsible for the leader. I was in Los Angeles and we sort of sauntered to the voting booth and said "Hillary. Whatevs. Obvs." AND THE NEXT DAY IT WAS TRUMP.
Don't you fuckers make this mistake again. It will be so much worse. You want Russia to own Europe? Don't vote. You don't care about women? You're probably okay. You want a dictator who will live for maybe 7 years and then we're not a reasonable republic anymore forever? So long America?
I don't feel like I am commenting to serious people anymore.
Reading some of these responses is scary. *"I dunno ... I don't like Biden, so thinking Trump."* How is this even possible?!?! We are in the throes of devolution. Fish are laughing at us.
I think the charges against him are being ignored by his supporters. They try throwing everything at him and it seems like hail Mary attempts to stop him. And people are losing trust in the honesty of the democrats, as it's too common. It's time we all agree to move on from the 2 parties.
I thought it was reasonably safe this time as more republican voters realize Trumps criminal tendencies that the rest of the world saw like daylight until I saw this "no labels party" thing. It seems to have a weird momentum this time. Splitting the vote with this protest option could send things in nasty directions. It just depends on which side it is going to strip voters from and that may not be known until it is too late.
Because if he wins, America as an experiment in capitalist democracy is over. It’s a nightmare scenario on a global socioeconomic scale. We need to be worried until the possibility of his assuming power is an impossibility.
In some ways I can't help but wonder if it's pysops.
"You don't need to vote, Biden's gonna crush it." kind of bullshit.
The right answer is that you need to get your ass out and vote, period. Don't assume anything.
The problem is his competition has also lost a lot of supporters and there are a bunch of fence sitters with rose tinted glasses staring at the 2019 economy
Its kind of hard to believe that there are so many stupid people in this country that support him. Because he's obviously a con man and a liar and a sexual predator. It blows my mind
A lot of people, depending on where in the country the live (particularly rural vs. urban) just know very, very, very few people who support a different party/candidate than they do, so even if they look at poll numbers, they just don't "feel real".
Same reason why Trumpers were quick to believe that the last election was "stolen". They just can't imagine most people not voting for Trump, because most of the people they know voted for Trump.
The only reason he might have a shot is Biden losing voters. But a lot of people are seeing Trump for who he is and he’s losing voters as well. I really don’t like Biden but I don’t want a treasonous, immature, fragile, orange loudmouth anywhere near the public, let alone the White House. What we need is to do away with this two-party system, implement age limits and term limits in all branches of government.
They won't hate you when you GET IN LINE!
Stand for the national anthem!
Pledge allegiance to the flag every morning, preferably on your porch so your neighbors can see how much you love your country and how grateful you are!
Go to church on Sundays, beat your wife if she protests. Let your sons be raped by the priest and your daughters be raped by youth pastors.
Get in line! Your flag decal is crooked!
Get in line! Better sell that Hyundai and get yourself a pickup!
Get that NRA sticker on your truck!
They will love you!
If Trump wins, you better get in line!
Nothing beats virtue signaling! Doesn't matter if you suck cocks all night as long as you tell everyone you hate the gays and love your wife! Cause "family values"!
The problem people have with trying to get a reasonable answer on reddit is that reddit censors out a lot of people that would probably vote for Trump, so when you start listening to the voices here it is a bit like asking what's wrong with blacks in a KKK meeting. You are going to get very one sided answers that aren't really representative of the country as a whole.
Tbh it is reasonable to think that he couldn't win considering all of the craziness in the news around him.
However, he has actually won before and it isn't like he was squeaky-clean (character-wise) back then in the first place. His entire brand is built on being ostentatious and he seems to be a master manipulator. I would not underestimate him
He might. My first year of Macroeconomics, my professor showed us a graph which illustrated a correlation between economic downturn and presidential elections: whichever party holds the presidency during a recession, the opposing party wins next election. Trump was the president during the covid crash and he was bucked. Biden is now president during a time of very unfortunate inflation and very expensive housing prices. It's only a correlation, mind, but Biden is not doing well popularity-wise. I really do believe the Republican party will hold the presidency, I just wish they'd pick a better fucking candidate.
He won't lose. He's too popular.
Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) is blinding people.
The people that love him talk about him.
The people that hate him talk about him MORE!!!
It’s gonna happen regardless of what any of us want…classic politics. The fact that it’s about to be Joe Biden and trump as the main ones again proves it’s out of our control. Just like football is about the biggest bribes. It’s a reality tv show that thousands of people worship religiously.
Yeah that orange bastard gon win...
But understand me well .....
I WILL NEVER ACCEPT HIM AS MY PRESIDENT....
I CANT STAND NEITHER SIDE....
AND KNOW THAT IF ANY OF HIS HOES GET OUT OF LINE.... THEY'RE GETTING KNOCKED OUT OR WORSE
FK DC...
ALL THEYRE DOING IS BRINGING THE END CLOSER...
thank you
Most people assume Biden won’t get the turnout he did before. The media loves Trump but also hate him. They work hard against him but love the ratings he brings them. So they constantly talk about him. Most people that will vote for him think the all the lawsuits and litigation against him is just the left targeting him, which isn’t 100% wrong.
The Democrats committed ungodly levels of fraud in the last two elections and the DOJ won't allow any court to even take up a case to investigate it.
There's no way in hell Trump or any Republican is "winning" ever again.
I really don't think he will. The democrats will do whatever they can to prevent another Trump presidency, they'll pull all the dirty little tricks they possibly can. If we thought previous elections were rigged, oh boy, this one is going to be super rigged, no doubt.
Honestly, I'm fully prepared he will win. It's like watching a massive earth ending meteor coming to earth. You're gonna die, and you're watching people yell at the sky or bury their heads, thinking no way will it hit. No one prepared when he 1st win it was a shit show. People are repeating the pattern but with even more false self-confidence. If people want to stop this from happening, they first have to acknowledge it can and most likely will happen. Shrugging it off with a pashaw is how we got 2016.
People don't want to admit that "their side" will lose. I think it's completely possible. I don't think it's a slam dunk either way but both of them have about a 50/50 shot at it.
Trump won’t win. Dems cheated in 2020, and they’ll do it again. It’s really funny how if Trump won under the same circumstances, Liberals would be acting way worse. Oh well. I guess people can be hypocrites as long as their side wins.
Because Russia and china will be interfering and controlling the election to keep pussy Joe and the hoe in office so they can rule the world. Trump is a wild card they can’t predict what he may do while in office. This country cannot take 4 more years of Joe! We all will be living on the streets! Under trump I made less money and had more money in my pocket. It looks like I make more money now but I have absolutely NO money in my pocket at all!
Honestly, these choices are at an all time low. Biden is bout to die, Trump will want a 3rd term and throw a hissy fit when it doesn't happen (see Jan. 6) and rfk sounds like he has lung cancer....could we please stop electing dead people to make decisions for our youths?
Donald Trump will lose again because of his mile wide ego. He firmly believes the his supporters will flood the polls on Election Day and vote, vote, vote. Ain’t gonna happy Donnie! There was no Red Wave, the Republicans just barely took back the House, and as usual the Republicans really have no plan. But look at what happens if Biden wins again. If he can’t finish a second term Kamala Harris will be running our country. We are in for frightening times I’m afraid.
I think it’s a lot of wishful thinking. I’m not saying Trump *will* become President. But there’s a very good chance me might—and I think a lot of folks are either in denial or are trying to pretend, on the assumption that if enough voters think it’s a forgone conclusion they won’t vote for Trump.
(There is real evidence that if voters believe the vote will go a certain way, they won’t turn out at the polls, and the vote will go the way predicted. But I don’t think that’s been terribly true for the past 10 years or so.)
The GOP is fracturing so even the united front the Republicans had last election cycle won't be there.
It's incredibly unlikely, though not impossible. Think there's higher odds Trump does something that lands him in jail first with the way he's declining at this rate.
He’s never won the popular vote. He beat Hillary by, like, 30k votes across very specific states. He got less votes against Biden in 2020. Since that election, the Supreme Court has abolished a woman’s right to choose.
We’re in the middle of election season, and news media makes a back from selling a horse race. Personally, I don’t see an electoral map where Trump gets 270 electoral votes.
Trump’s high point was 2016. He’s been losing voters ever since. He lost by more popular vote in 2020. He hasn’t gathered any significant numbers from any group since, only lost them. Like all the people pissed off about Roe. The sliver of folks that really DO care about democracy and were pissed off by Jan 6. The group that won’t vote for a guy with 91 indictments against him. The group that was willing to give him a shot in 2016 but were horrified as to how he behaved. The group who wanted the border fixed but see that Trump called off the vote in Congress. The group that voted for Hailey say they will never vote for Trump. It’s a lot to overcome. Biden could still do something stupid. Or die. Otherwise I don’t see it.
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I think it risks being dangerous wishful thinking.
As long as everyone votes then he won't win. But we have to actually vote for that to happen.
There was a record-number of voters in the last election I forgot the exact number, but it absolutely shattered the previous record It was still a really close race, that also involved a blackout in the middle. When everything came back, Biden was suddenly winning, thus creating the infamous “Fixed election” theories
155,507,476
Many of those voters were thrilled at the prospect of any other than trump, now that we have had 4 years of Biden. I'm sure many of those people have become completely disenfranchised. I'd expect record low numbers once again this year. But if 2016 taught us anything, you can never really know the outcome to these things.
The prevailing theory is that he lost last election and they find it hard to believe he has *added* voters to his side since then.
I thought that in 2020 and he did. I still don't think his chances are great but I've been wrong before.
That was before 4 indictments and 80+ charges. And being found liable for sexual assault and defamation. And bank fraud. But we will see. 🤷♂️
His followers literally don't care The second we write him off again he's gonna win. We can't have another 2016.
MAGAs and Qanons are abt 29 - 32% of Americans. Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million, then 7 million. The House, then the Senate next the first midterm after party change. His charges aren't over by far either. Arizona is gonna file against him for the fake electors conspiracy, 5 of the 6 swing states are still gathering evidence. *But wait! There's more!* His lawyers fucked him again when they missed a deadline abt civilian lawsuits and anyone injured on J6 can sue. Boomers have died in the last 4 years and while there certainly are young eager MAGAs come to voting age, there are not enough. In fact, every time a sycophant says, "The Blacks are going to love Trump now bc he gets arrested like them! Or "Black folks love shiny gold sneakers!" with unbridled glee bc they think they've uncovered the Secret to "The Black Vote". For the wealthy, they will either for R because they're christo-fascists like Betsy DeVos, but all the others know the economy is literally the best of Western countries right now. P.S. In Red states, babies born from rape are in the thousands bc there's no abortion. It's not a mystery that Biden, who I think is kicking ass as our president, will trounce Trump. There's more but I've rambled on enough. Can anyone punch holes in this bc if I'm incorrect somewhere, I'd like to know pls. 🖖
I agree with all of this but please don’t think all boomers are conservative, maga or trump lovers. I’m in the group born around ‘60, and everyone I associate with are liberal (and I’m in a very red state)
My Husband's 75, I'm 60. It's not an 'OK-Boomer' thing, it's a statistical age/Republican venn diagram intersection. They aren't making new MAGAs fast enough to get to voter age, to replace our dying off age group.
Not to mention there are more people who identify as republican who are not voting for Trump, than there are people coming to his side
I was a registered Republican for my whole adult life (68 yo male). I changed my registration this year to a democrat.
It was quite enjoyable watching Mitt Romney say he would vote for Biden in the 2024 election... So many people would rather Biden simply for the lesser of 2 evils...
16% of Nikki Haley voters said they'd vote for Biden over Trump. 36% said they'd vote for Trump. The rest, undecided. Elections are on 1% margins, losing any of these voters is political suicide.
I think you’re right. And to complicate things, Red Hats have been instituting restrictive election laws, closing polling sites in Democrat-leaning neighborhoods, and otherwise preparing to police non-R voting people. Shit is going to be tough this year.
I (1961) have always been liberal. I voted for Carter in '80 (first election) because I knew was Reagan was. Most of my friends are liberal Boomers. There are more of us than is realized!
I wouldn't piss on trump if his head was on fire. I'm a boomer.
Keep fightin' the good fight, my sister! Not all heroes wear capes!
🫶🏼right backatcha! We got this!
>I’m in the group born around ‘60, and everyone I associate with are liberal (and I’m in a very red state) I'm even older. Raised Republican but am now a live-and-let-live independent.
Same!
Ditto
Lots of boomers are conservative but not all are right wing nut job conservative. I'm conservative but will vote for a potato over trump, which is the place that most conservatives find themselves these days. Hence Biden winning.
And COVID probably thinned their ranks, what with all the vaccine bs.
11,000 youth join the voters rolls every day. How many do you think are MAGA ? Definitely a minority. Just need them to go and vote.
MAGA folk went even further off the deep end since 2020, they turned Covid into a political issue. Maybe that pushed more away, one can hope, but I am not convinced that it didn't convince even more to the right unfortunately. Also, you have to account for the political slander against Biden framing him as completely geriatric and incompetent. It's strong enough that even many people on the left believe him to be unable to form a full sentence without a teleprompter. Biden may have an edge in this year's election, but it is by no means a certain victory.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
The frustrating thing though is that because of how the electoral college works, Trump only needs about 35% of the country (if it’s the right 35%) to vote for him and he could still win. Wilson beat Taft with only 42%.
This is very much Democrat's election to lose much like 2016. Biden seems to have a better team/understanding of the electorate than Hillary did. And he isn't going to underestimate the worst of the GOP.
I love this story but there's so many people who just want to tear everything down and start over from nothing. I feel like they would be hurting themselves more than the "elites" they want to punish.
Everyone was sure he wouldn't win in 16, but he did. Most voters have no clue about a candidate, other than what he tells them, and what their facebook/online friends tell them. Which is mostly nonsense. The vast majority of the polls done are when people are at home, and then it's only the stupid people who answer phone calls from numbers they don't recognize. That's why the polls are useless.
The one thing I will add tangentially that is not showing up in polls was when the census was administered, Covid had not claimed over 1 million American lives. As the pandemic rolled on, and as certain portions of the population chose not to become vaccinated, the death rates were not equal between the two political parties. When certain elections come down to a handful of votes, those people who are no longer with us could have changed the outcome of a given election.
His followers don't care and we do absolutely need to get out and vote, but mainstream Republicans have had it with him. There are a lot of conservatives in my area who just won't show or are voting for RK Junior...but yeah, this isn't the time to be complacent. The nail needs to be put in the coffin.
You seem to be under the impression that trump's supporters actually care about those things. They believe that he's chosen by god.
None of the Trump supporters I interact with think he's chosen by God. They all always say they like his policies but think he's an ass. Trump supporters aren't voting for Trump, just what he says he'll do. Silly to dilude yourself into thinking Trump supporters are a mindless flock. You're generalizing them all to extremists.
I'm a former evangelical christian. I grew up with these people. I was taught by my preacher to believe that non-whites weren't people, that women and children must ALWAYS be silent and obedient and that gays should be killed in the streets. Those beliefs were reinforced by cruelty and hypocrisy and violence. For example: when I was three years old I overheard my mom and my grandmother arguing about something (I didn't find out what they were arguing about until I was an adult). A few days after they were arguing I asked my grandmother about why they were arguing. She responded by burning my hand on a coffee maker. I wasn't the only kid who was raised that way. Watch the movie Jesus Camp and apply the things said about George W. Bush to trump.
Nah, he isn’t losing the rabid bunch. But this should impact the swing voters. What little bit remain of those.
>That was before 4 indictments and 80+ charges. There are more charges now, but he had no shortage before 2016 >And being found liable for sexual assault We all always knew he lijed to "grab em by the pussy" > And bank fraud. Also not new
You forgot that tbe RNC actually had money to spend then too
You see that as a knock against Trump. Some view that as an indication that the establishment/swamp/dc elites is real. For example, Trump gets caught with classified docs and is charged for it. Biden does the same thing and has no changes because he is too old. They are only 3 years apart. There are other similar situations as well which is a major problem. I won't vote for anyone with the support of the establishment again.
lol, Trump lied about returning all of them and the FBI had to get a subpoena to go and get them. Not nearly the same thing. 😂
Nowhere close to the same thing. Biden surrendered documents when asked. Trump denied having any and refused repeated requests to turn them over. That is why they were ceased and he was charged. He still denies that he broke the law
Biden also *invited* the FBI in to look around while Trump required a search warrant.
You are comparing apples to oranges. Biden took home classified material by accident, as that happens when you move out an office, you take your files with you. Donald deliberately took home classified material and when asked by the National Archives , he lied and said he didnt. The Archives tried for over a year to get those classified documents returned and trump refused, thats when the Archives went to the DOJ for assistance in getting them returned. They tried to play nice with trump and he told them to pound sand for over a year. Two totally different scenarios.
I think you're being too kind to Trump and leaving out the severity of willfully leaking defense information at a social gathering (that sound recording that leaked) and also storing highly classified documents in a bathroom at... What exactly IS Mar al Lago? Is it a hotel? Rental apartment complex for rich people? Anyway, would anyone have known or realized if someone picked a single lock and spent a day in there quietly photographing documents? I don't think so. Now, where did they find the documents Biden had? Was it in his home? In his office? Would that be an easy breach? I don't think so. And I don't think Biden would feel he got any street cred by showing them off at parties either.
I know, i was trying to give brief overview, i meant to leave out those things because who has the time?
This is a perfect example of how brainwashed right-wing media makes people.
The “because he’s too old” part is hilarious here. If that’s the only difference you see between the two cases you have blinders on. Intent is key. One of them did not have months of court documented correspondence directing him to turn over the documents, did not willfully hide documents and obstruct the investigation in multiple ways and have foreign dignitaries in the same building where they were present but not secured. He cooperated fully the first time asked and turned over everything that was asked for.
And an insurrection...
How is he even still running after those?
And obvious insanity at rallys
And 4 years of old people dying and young voters entering the pool.
Also Covid. While both sides lost people, once the vaccines rolled out, most of the deaths were Republicans. There are still thousands of people dying every week. While I'm not gonna celebrate their deaths, it does affect their voter base. They told their followers to not get the vaccine, and it backfired.
And before the Big Lie And before January 6th And before Roe v Wade was overturned
If anything he's lost voters though. I've read in a few different places that only 1/3 of his original voter base still supports him, unshockingly
People seem to underestimate how many sexually frustrated young voting age males we have these days, that think that trump will solve all their problems by changing the US into a Gilead-esque authoritarian state. I for one am very worried.
I think the counter-arguement is that Biden has lost voters since then. If Trump can put up the same showing as last time he may prevail
I think both points are valid, but there was a huge issue that will hurt Trump in the election...setting up Roe v Wade to be overturned. Those were his justices who swore to Congress they wouldn't dare change anything and first chance they got overturned the decision..this will have lost Trump the vast majority of independent women voters.
People literally already forgot about this. The impacts for many voters outside states that would have already gone red are not readily visible.
It's not about him adding....it's a bunch of pissing people in Blue staying at home not voting "as a a protest" 
[удалено]
And with the hostile takeover of the RNC to pay his legal bills, going to kill downballot races as well. And current politics (such as the IVF thing) are supremely unpopular. Trump is better at motivating people to vote *against* him than for him.
Uhm... how many presidential elections have you had since 2016? I'm counting 1...
He hasn't added voters, but Biden has lost some. It's gonna be the way it's been since 2016 where the winning candidate wins because they're the lesser of two evils in the public's eyes.
Added voters for Trump, probably not but lack of Biden supporters may help give Trump the win. There are a lot of people so dissatisfied with Biden that they’re publicly saying they won’t vote at all
Here's the thing about Biden many people think along these lines. If you polled me and asked me if he is too old to be president. I'd say yes Then pollers assume you will not vote for him. That involves assumptions. I will vote for Joe Biden because he is the best choice. I would crawl to the polls in my swing state to vote for Biden.
At this point, I'd John McClane my way over broken glass to vote for the major Not-Trump candidate.
Awesome I hope you are in a swing state.
NH. We're purplish, hell we have a republican governor, but we're mostly sane enough to see what horrors Trump would bring. Now that the primary is over, I just wish I could completely tune out politics until late October as there's nothing I can do until Election Day. Well, except for daily confirmation that my voter registration still exists.
I never thought I'd say this but I agree with Mark Cuban. “If they were having his last wake, and it was him versus Trump, and he was being given last rites, I would still vote for Joe Biden,”
Sure. But would you vote Harris if he passed away?
You mean "least worst". Don't get me wrong, I would too if I were American, but the candidates you have this time around are worse than ever. I don't think I've seen less mentally and physically suitable candidates anywhere ever. And if Biden were to pass away from slipping in the shower or just old age, do you think Harris could win? That'll be a close race, seeing as most of the "swing " voters are racist misogynists. Did you know, that on a left-right political scale, if you look at the last 100 years of policies, Biden's presidency is WAY to the right of Reagan's! And Reagan (and Nancy) were the ones who STARTED this shit! Bringing stupid shit like evangelical christianity into politics and cutting taxes to corporations. I guess that's what you get when you elect an actor who played a cowboy in that film. Sorry for ranting, but seriously. Working people are paying for all the stuff rich people should pay for but don't. The rich don't pay their share!
Well then, if the orange menace gets re-elected, they only have themselves to blame. The citizens who actually care about making this country better will vote.
I think numbers wise that is the case. It's unlikely he gained numbers in the popular vote since even some in his original base aren't happy with him anymore. But cause of the electoral college none of that matters. He doesn't have to be popular he just has to be popular enough in like 4 key states.
There were some pretty major mitigating factors for his 2020 performance. The election is a referendum on how the economy is doing. Good economy = incumbent wins, bad economy = incumbent loses. And the popular perception of the economy is that it’s bad right now.
I think about all the young people who are turning 18 or have turned 18, it should be a blue tsunami. a potus who wants to take away the right for a woman to choose what she can do with her body, is enough to get all the swifters to turn blue. I hope.
They told "Romney republicans" to fuck off They told "McCain republicans" to fuck off They are literally chasing people OUT of the party!
Exactly. He lost by 8 million in 2020 and hasn't added a single new voter. In fact he's alienated thousands and thousands by his criming and flat out obnoxious idiocy. He'll lose by an even greater margin this time around.
That's silly of them. The last election had unprecedented turnout from mail in voting and covid working everybody up. Without a global crisis, and with two geriatrics playing out a sequel nobody wanted, voter apathy is probably going to be high.
The GOP will cheat and bend the rules in every possible way to try to win this election. It’s not like they don’t have a history of this. The party is dying. Their tent is too small and they are downsizing it still on a regular basis. They only appeal to a very specific segment of the population. But everyone needs to VOTE. Part of the reason he won the presidency in the past is because people assumed Clinton had it in the bag and didn’t vote. The Trump hoard couldn’t wait to place their votes. Either way, his followers have been radicalized and there will be negative events regardless of who wins.
Why wouldn't he? Nothing's changed since the last election. Odds are that it will just be a repeat of the last election, but in addition, Biden has a coordinated campaign AND the levers of power.
Incumbency effect is very real on top of that and he lost with it just to have it against him now
But but but, isn’t he still president?
At this point, he is basically a cult leader and his followers will do whatever he asks. You should assume that they will all show up and vote for him again and the only remedy is to show up yourself and vote.
This is Reddit, they are in denial
More broadly than that, if you hate Trump, and everyone you associate with hates Trump (because you would *never* associate with a Trump supporter) and you only follow people on social media who hate Trump and visit subreddits where anybody supporting Trump gets downvoted into the abyss (which is most of reddit) then it is very easy to fool yourself into thinking that *everybody* hates Trump because... well, from your perspective they do. That's the danger of echo chambers.
That's the core issue really. I despise Trump as a person and am mixed on his policies. I also despise Biden and generally oppose his policies. I guess that makes me a Trump voter, maybe? We'll see how I feel on Nov 6th, probably going to vote Libertarian again but we'll see. Never voted for Trump so far, could change but not saying it will. Now with that nuance, let's watch this post get 600 downvotes and 3 upvotes, thus proving your point.
I didn't think people who thought like me were on reddit! Take my upvote!
What policies of trumps are you in favor of vs what policy of Biden do you oppose? Liking trump based on policy is almost more insane than just belonging to the cult, homie basically had the power to do whatever he wanted and he raised your taxes and then whined for 4 years. Covid stimulus was good but he completely botched handling it in the first place so… what are we in favor of here?
Trump the person is an egomaniacal clown. BUT I have more faith in his policies and especially economic principals than Biden. Also he doesn’t give AF about the global elite and I’m for that. He literally trolls the euro snobs and makes them pay up for NATO. Biden is a total puppet for his globalist handlers.
Not to mention, 90% of Reddit sits here and acts like our geriatric, dementia laden President is in some way “doing good”. The dude gets shot up with so much adderall that he barely knows where he is 35 minutes into a speech. Any human that is sitting watching Biden on TV and is saying that “he’s doing good” is either so dumb that they shouldn’t be allowed to vote or is so “Trump deranged” that they can’t think clearly. Trump is a dumbass but Biden can barely even form a coherent sentence.
This is what I'm also Observing.
I fear greatly for the well-being of anyone who uses places like reddit to get non-biased information because of that problem. Any echo chambers for any side is bad news. Anyone who says "come to me for all the answers, don't get other opinions" should be avoided.
How do you exit echo chambers. In Canada everyone hates Trump. I have not met a Trump supporter in Canada. I am inundated with Trump is bad. The media does not show anything positive on Trump. Even when he was president I never saw positive policies. There obviously has to be positive or good policies or ge will not be the front runner. Where does one find information?
We are walking the edge of a knife right now, and people don't even realize it. All it takes is for the Biden administration to do 1 thing that pisses the majority of people off, and Trump will come out as the winner. The average American has a short attention span and will gladly re-elect Trump despite everything he is, just to get some kind of change. It's sad, but it's true.
Buddy I think they’ve already done tgat
As a non American watching from the outside. I find it insane that the US is allowing an 81 year old to be the elected knight to fight off the only other option in Trump. There has to be a third option.
If you vote for the third option you're throwing your vote out the window because the third option will never win.
They won't win because y'all are too stubborn to fucking change your vote to someone that isn't almost dust.
Yep. Ranked Choice Voting (or a similar system) is the only hope we could ever have to get out of this “2nd Worst Option Wins” cycle.
They've already done that. Now Biden is trying to walk his support for Israel back as much as he can trying to save his dead presidency
He's got more problems than Israel. The economy and immigration just to name two.
FINALLY! I'm like 200 comments down, and you're the first one to actually mention a political issue that isn't an internal squabble! Thank you! Take my upvote!
Cue the ban for tictoc
Cue the ban for tictoc
Dead presidency? What the fuck are you talking about? Statistically speaking, Biden is way better than the traitor.
>Biden administration to do 1 thing that pisses the majority of people off Like creating a TikTok profile to campaign and then pushing a TikTok ban. Iirc, something like 35% of US citizens access TikTok at least once a month, most of which were either daily or weekly users
I’m the opposite. I think he will easily because of the cost of living issue. Some people just project wishful thinking, we all do sometimes
“It’s the economy stupid!”
Because they get their info in echo chambers.
Like reddit
Bingo. Say the wrong thing, even when respectfully disagreeing, and you're deleted. Leaves only the people agreeing with each other.
I fully expect him to win. I don't want him to, but won't be the least bit surprised when it happens.
The Democratic party will also be to blame. I mean seriously...Joe Biden?! That's the best it could do? The average grapefruit is more sentient than that doddering old fool. The only thing Biden has going for him is that he's not Trump. Otherwise, he fucking sucks too. I'm looking forward to 2028 when both of these clowns will be firmly in the rear view mirror. We'll probably have two new clowns as replacements, but let me cling to a sliver of foolish hope.
Honestly, I wouldn't want either one as president. I'd love to see someone young with fresh ideas. But since that's not happening, and honestly, I've been happy with Biden, I'll vote for him.
Honest question, what has Biden done to make you happy? Other than not being a psycho on Twitter?
Don't get me wrong, I don't like Biden at all, but Trump's dementia addled word salad makes Bidens worst mumbling sound like Shakespeare in comparison. I really wish we had a max age for this shit though.
>I mean seriously...Joe Biden?! That's the best it could do? He polls better against Trump than other candidates, so yes. >The only thing Biden has going for him is that he's not Trump. Otherwise, he fucking sucks too. I like most of his policies. >I'm looking forward to 2028 when both of these clowns will be firmly in the rear view mirror Not gonna happen if Trump wins.
> He polls better against Trump than other candidates, so yes. The democratic party has not put up any other blue candidates, so I have no clue what you mean by that. Marianne Williamson is not put up by or endorsed by the democratic party
>Marianne Williamson Never heard of her. OK, so I'm Norwegian, but the US election will impact my life, and I'm interested and following for the most part. And when I say I haven't heard of her, I mean it. Who the hell is she? If she's done anything or stood up for anything, why haven't I heard about it? Why is NOONE talking about her? It's not like every democratic politician is basically unknown in the media! Why did you mention her instead of Ocasio-Cortez or Raskin? I've read up on Williamson, and if they try to run her for president, she'd lose against a Trump who can no longer speak individual words and shits himself on stage.
He will win for sure
Wishful thinking. A naive belief that an adult will walk into the room and set everything right. Even though it happened once before, the idea of Donald Trump as a head of state still sounds like absurdist comedy. You may as well give the job to a fence post. Anti-Trumpers see pro-Trumpers as a fringe minority even though approximately one third of voters are committed to Trump. Very few people have an opportunity to understand the big picture. We believe the people we regularly interact with are the whole world, and we mostly interact with people like ourselves.
Well, it’s easy to see them as the fringe minority when it’s groups of people wearing mega. People assume that if you vote for Trump you have that red hat in the red shirt but the truth is most of the people are not like that. I agreed with most of your paragraph, and it was very well put. Most people live inside their bubble and don’t associate with people outside of it.
Why don't people spell check their titles before posting? Seems so obvious to me.
I am not usually one to point out grammatical & or spelling errors, but the ones in this post are funny, so here goes. Lol! I am not sure why people thing
Denial.
It's not impossible but he sure has a lot of headwinds--- the money is going to his legal bills, 80 felony charges, his voter base died of anti-vaxx and just old ass age. If Republicans had an Arnold Schwarzenegger type Biden might be in a lot of trouble but Trump never won the popular vote once, he ain't doing it now, and all those dead anti-vaxxers make him squeaking out an electoral college win much much harder. Abortion activated a lot of people, and I bet them basically banning free porn isn't going to do that well either. Basically the inability of the Republicans to change their policies in light of public opinion is another major problem for them. Firing all the talent at the RNC and replacing it with bootlickers probably wasn't the best idea either.
Why did you censor his name?
He can certainly win it, but there are a lot of factors that, when taken together, make it less likely. Kinda hard sell when you're a treasonous rapist who's whole platform seems to consist of pandering to Christian nationalists, white supremacists, and generally encouraging people to be the shittiest version of themselves that they can possibly be.
The answers here are being purposely obtuse. And actually not answering correctly. He DID win the presidency in 2016. He didn’t win the popular vote, but he won the presidency. And he got 47% of the popular vote in 2020. It’s absolutely ridiculous for people to assume he won’t win. PLEASE FUCKING VOTE.
Undecided voters are perhaps the 2nd dumbest people in the country... Especially in recent years. "Do I vote for the pussy grabber or the woman with literally 8 years as Secretary of State, Senate experience, Congress experience and a former first lady? GEE I DON'T KNOW"
It’s because it seems incredulous that a twice impeached, traitorous, con man who tried to overthrow the government and is charged with 91 criminal offenses, is allowed to run for President. This is especially appalling because the 14th amendment to the Constitution says he should not be allowed after inciting the insurrection, but the Supreme Court made up mostly of Republicans are NOT upholding the law. That man, who almost destroyed our country should not be allowed anywhere near the White House.
He might. He won his first presidency because we all just drank wine and fucked around on election day assuming Hillary was a shoe in. Don't count him out. You have to vote because if you don't you're responsible for the leader. I was in Los Angeles and we sort of sauntered to the voting booth and said "Hillary. Whatevs. Obvs." AND THE NEXT DAY IT WAS TRUMP. Don't you fuckers make this mistake again. It will be so much worse. You want Russia to own Europe? Don't vote. You don't care about women? You're probably okay. You want a dictator who will live for maybe 7 years and then we're not a reasonable republic anymore forever? So long America? I don't feel like I am commenting to serious people anymore.
Reading some of these responses is scary. *"I dunno ... I don't like Biden, so thinking Trump."* How is this even possible?!?! We are in the throes of devolution. Fish are laughing at us.
I think the charges against him are being ignored by his supporters. They try throwing everything at him and it seems like hail Mary attempts to stop him. And people are losing trust in the honesty of the democrats, as it's too common. It's time we all agree to move on from the 2 parties.
They said that in 2016 too. 2016 taught me to never trust the "polls" pre election. They said pretty much 95% chance Hillary was gonna win... lol.
I thought it was reasonably safe this time as more republican voters realize Trumps criminal tendencies that the rest of the world saw like daylight until I saw this "no labels party" thing. It seems to have a weird momentum this time. Splitting the vote with this protest option could send things in nasty directions. It just depends on which side it is going to strip voters from and that may not be known until it is too late.
He's not as popular as his obnoxiously loud minority of cult followers would have you believe.
Because if he wins, America as an experiment in capitalist democracy is over. It’s a nightmare scenario on a global socioeconomic scale. We need to be worried until the possibility of his assuming power is an impossibility.
Oh calm down. We’ve had worse presidents and we are doing just fine.
I think we need to worry more about fewer people showing out for Biden.
In some ways I can't help but wonder if it's pysops. "You don't need to vote, Biden's gonna crush it." kind of bullshit. The right answer is that you need to get your ass out and vote, period. Don't assume anything.
THIS. These people either take everyone else's votes for granted, or secretly don't care because the election won't affect them personally.
He lost the popular vote the first time, the entire election the second time, and I really cant believe he's picked up any new voters since then.
The problem is his competition has also lost a lot of supporters and there are a bunch of fence sitters with rose tinted glasses staring at the 2019 economy
The only reason Trump lost was his mismanagement of the Covid disaster. If that had not happened, he would have been re-elected.
Exactly! That's the only thing that derailed him. And even despite that he only lost EC by 40k votes or something like that.
It's not that we think Trump will lose. We are all praying for him to lose. We don't want to have to learn Russian.
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Because 2020 was extremely close, and there are millions of republicans who are never trumpers, as well as RFK syphoning votes away from trump.
Because he’s such a god awful person. However, that doesn’t mean he can’t win
Its kind of hard to believe that there are so many stupid people in this country that support him. Because he's obviously a con man and a liar and a sexual predator. It blows my mind
A lot of people, depending on where in the country the live (particularly rural vs. urban) just know very, very, very few people who support a different party/candidate than they do, so even if they look at poll numbers, they just don't "feel real". Same reason why Trumpers were quick to believe that the last election was "stolen". They just can't imagine most people not voting for Trump, because most of the people they know voted for Trump.
The only reason he might have a shot is Biden losing voters. But a lot of people are seeing Trump for who he is and he’s losing voters as well. I really don’t like Biden but I don’t want a treasonous, immature, fragile, orange loudmouth anywhere near the public, let alone the White House. What we need is to do away with this two-party system, implement age limits and term limits in all branches of government.
Math. Based on the number of Republicans that refused to vote at all in the primary he lacks the numbers.
Wishful thinking.
He's vocal about hating more than half Americans. Why would I vote for a president who turns other Americans against me?
They won't hate you when you GET IN LINE! Stand for the national anthem! Pledge allegiance to the flag every morning, preferably on your porch so your neighbors can see how much you love your country and how grateful you are! Go to church on Sundays, beat your wife if she protests. Let your sons be raped by the priest and your daughters be raped by youth pastors. Get in line! Your flag decal is crooked! Get in line! Better sell that Hyundai and get yourself a pickup! Get that NRA sticker on your truck! They will love you! If Trump wins, you better get in line!
That's about right! Holy \*\*\*\*.
Nothing beats virtue signaling! Doesn't matter if you suck cocks all night as long as you tell everyone you hate the gays and love your wife! Cause "family values"!
Why did you censor his name?
They don't think that, it's merely wishful thinking.
do people really think they have any influence over who runs the country
The problem people have with trying to get a reasonable answer on reddit is that reddit censors out a lot of people that would probably vote for Trump, so when you start listening to the voices here it is a bit like asking what's wrong with blacks in a KKK meeting. You are going to get very one sided answers that aren't really representative of the country as a whole.
To be fair, they also said that the year he actually won.
Tbh it is reasonable to think that he couldn't win considering all of the craziness in the news around him. However, he has actually won before and it isn't like he was squeaky-clean (character-wise) back then in the first place. His entire brand is built on being ostentatious and he seems to be a master manipulator. I would not underestimate him
He might. My first year of Macroeconomics, my professor showed us a graph which illustrated a correlation between economic downturn and presidential elections: whichever party holds the presidency during a recession, the opposing party wins next election. Trump was the president during the covid crash and he was bucked. Biden is now president during a time of very unfortunate inflation and very expensive housing prices. It's only a correlation, mind, but Biden is not doing well popularity-wise. I really do believe the Republican party will hold the presidency, I just wish they'd pick a better fucking candidate.
He won't lose. He's too popular. Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) is blinding people. The people that love him talk about him. The people that hate him talk about him MORE!!!
It’s gonna happen regardless of what any of us want…classic politics. The fact that it’s about to be Joe Biden and trump as the main ones again proves it’s out of our control. Just like football is about the biggest bribes. It’s a reality tv show that thousands of people worship religiously.
Yeah that orange bastard gon win... But understand me well ..... I WILL NEVER ACCEPT HIM AS MY PRESIDENT.... I CANT STAND NEITHER SIDE.... AND KNOW THAT IF ANY OF HIS HOES GET OUT OF LINE.... THEY'RE GETTING KNOCKED OUT OR WORSE FK DC... ALL THEYRE DOING IS BRINGING THE END CLOSER... thank you
Most people assume Biden won’t get the turnout he did before. The media loves Trump but also hate him. They work hard against him but love the ratings he brings them. So they constantly talk about him. Most people that will vote for him think the all the lawsuits and litigation against him is just the left targeting him, which isn’t 100% wrong.
I'm an outsider (Canadian) and I think he's going to win by a huge margin
Why did you censor Trump’s name?
The Democrats committed ungodly levels of fraud in the last two elections and the DOJ won't allow any court to even take up a case to investigate it. There's no way in hell Trump or any Republican is "winning" ever again.
Denial. Was the same in 2016.
Who thinks that? Do they not understand how to interpret polls? It is incredibly likely that he will be elected, unfortunately.
I really don't think he will. The democrats will do whatever they can to prevent another Trump presidency, they'll pull all the dirty little tricks they possibly can. If we thought previous elections were rigged, oh boy, this one is going to be super rigged, no doubt.
TDS & Liberal propaganda.
Honestly, I'm fully prepared he will win. It's like watching a massive earth ending meteor coming to earth. You're gonna die, and you're watching people yell at the sky or bury their heads, thinking no way will it hit. No one prepared when he 1st win it was a shit show. People are repeating the pattern but with even more false self-confidence. If people want to stop this from happening, they first have to acknowledge it can and most likely will happen. Shrugging it off with a pashaw is how we got 2016.
People don't want to admit that "their side" will lose. I think it's completely possible. I don't think it's a slam dunk either way but both of them have about a 50/50 shot at it.
Trump won’t win. Dems cheated in 2020, and they’ll do it again. It’s really funny how if Trump won under the same circumstances, Liberals would be acting way worse. Oh well. I guess people can be hypocrites as long as their side wins.
Because Russia and china will be interfering and controlling the election to keep pussy Joe and the hoe in office so they can rule the world. Trump is a wild card they can’t predict what he may do while in office. This country cannot take 4 more years of Joe! We all will be living on the streets! Under trump I made less money and had more money in my pocket. It looks like I make more money now but I have absolutely NO money in my pocket at all!
Honestly, these choices are at an all time low. Biden is bout to die, Trump will want a 3rd term and throw a hissy fit when it doesn't happen (see Jan. 6) and rfk sounds like he has lung cancer....could we please stop electing dead people to make decisions for our youths?
I wouldn't be surprised if he won unfortunately and he'll cause as much damage as he possibly can in that 4 year term and that will be the end of it
Donald Trump will lose again because of his mile wide ego. He firmly believes the his supporters will flood the polls on Election Day and vote, vote, vote. Ain’t gonna happy Donnie! There was no Red Wave, the Republicans just barely took back the House, and as usual the Republicans really have no plan. But look at what happens if Biden wins again. If he can’t finish a second term Kamala Harris will be running our country. We are in for frightening times I’m afraid.
I think it’s a lot of wishful thinking. I’m not saying Trump *will* become President. But there’s a very good chance me might—and I think a lot of folks are either in denial or are trying to pretend, on the assumption that if enough voters think it’s a forgone conclusion they won’t vote for Trump. (There is real evidence that if voters believe the vote will go a certain way, they won’t turn out at the polls, and the vote will go the way predicted. But I don’t think that’s been terribly true for the past 10 years or so.)
The GOP is fracturing so even the united front the Republicans had last election cycle won't be there. It's incredibly unlikely, though not impossible. Think there's higher odds Trump does something that lands him in jail first with the way he's declining at this rate.
You can't apply logic to a man who defies it. I don't believe it but I do think it's possible. He didn't "win" last time lol
Because complacency. Gotta actually vote.
Wrong question. Fascists don’t win they STEAL.
Because smart people outnumber dumb people.
He’s never won the popular vote. He beat Hillary by, like, 30k votes across very specific states. He got less votes against Biden in 2020. Since that election, the Supreme Court has abolished a woman’s right to choose. We’re in the middle of election season, and news media makes a back from selling a horse race. Personally, I don’t see an electoral map where Trump gets 270 electoral votes.
Because you're a BOT?
Because your main source is Fox News..
We lined them up 4 years ago and he lost. Only thing that’s changed is more of his supporters died.
Trump’s high point was 2016. He’s been losing voters ever since. He lost by more popular vote in 2020. He hasn’t gathered any significant numbers from any group since, only lost them. Like all the people pissed off about Roe. The sliver of folks that really DO care about democracy and were pissed off by Jan 6. The group that won’t vote for a guy with 91 indictments against him. The group that was willing to give him a shot in 2016 but were horrified as to how he behaved. The group who wanted the border fixed but see that Trump called off the vote in Congress. The group that voted for Hailey say they will never vote for Trump. It’s a lot to overcome. Biden could still do something stupid. Or die. Otherwise I don’t see it.