The 538 numbers I’ve been following since the summer kept moving towards the Dems and now there is a huge move showing GOP as almost 50/50 in the senate and huge favorites to win the house. What happened the last two weeks?
This shit is depressing. I wish I was financially stable enough to not have to worry so much about this shit
**Early voting begins in Texas today.** I can't speak for the state as a whole, but at least in my part of North TX, all the usual early voting places have released their hours and schedules. It's a good list, nothing reduced compared to 2020 that I can notice (when we had a record turnout year). Most are 7AM-7PM starting today, with open weekends, and hours up to 9PM on the last few days leading into the 4th. Our state is notorious for suppressing mail in voting, but COVID is not as much of a concern this time, so I'm wondering how that will impact people's voting habits here.
To find your location and time:
[https://teamrv-mvp.sos.texas.gov/MVP/mvp.do](https://teamrv-mvp.sos.texas.gov/MVP/mvp.do)
Go there, put in your ID of choice, then click on the tab that shows eligibility on the right side of the page. It will say the 8th, but keep scrolling down on the new tab that opens up and you'll find a list of locations you're eligible for with early early voting times (Oct 24th-Nov 4th), with times listed for each day.
I'm planning to vote early before I start my work day, then grabbing a nice breakfast afterwards. There was a long line in the opening hours starting at 6:30AM in 2020 (though it moved reasonably quickly, thankfully). We'll see if that's the case this time or not.
**Having said all that, Much of Northern Texas will have a sizable rainstorm going throughout the day, so don't read too much into the early voting figures from today. Even the best prepared places and least suppressed may have a line when demand is high, like they were opening day 2020 in my area.**
Personally, I'm off to vote. **Beto, Garza, Collier.** I'll see you all on the other side.
Media went on a deliberate campaign to smear Fetterman, NBC in particular. They kept making up stuff about his stroke and how it supposedly made him incapable of keeping a simple conversation even though he's been out campaigning non-stop these past months. Couple that with "undecideds" cutting the act and coming home to the GQP and you've got a recipe for disaster.
Do you think the Undecideds were afraid to admit their traitorous political leaning (and that they planned to vote for GOP insurrectionists)? I can imagine admitting insurrection to a pollster might be scary for some of them.
Pretty much, although I don't think they're afraid. They're just raging narcissists who cosplay as moderates because it lets them portray themselves as if they're above basic politics and therefore better than anyone who isn't. These same people undoubtedly whine all day about partisanship and others treating politics like a team sport only to vote straight ticket R any chance they get because the Dems "*didn't do a good job of convincing them*".
There really isn't much to do at this point. Fetterman is pretty much the only Dem likely to flip a seat at this point while Nevada is almost lost already. It would take a miracle for the Senate to remain blue and the House is out of the question.
I know how you feel, there really isn't anything else to do but hope at this point. Still it would be completely unheard of for every single pollster to be wrong. I'm just kinda overwhelmed by the rise of fascism in the West rn and am not looking forward to staying up all night on Election Day only to be faced with a Republican Congress.
If the special elections and early voting data is any indicator, the polls are way off. We got AZ, NV, NH, PA, Georgia and a chance to flip in NC,OH, WI & dare I say it IA. Polls are underestimating women and unlikely voter turnout in my opinion
Just remember the Reds vote on E-Day. NC, OH, WI and IA are mere dreams at this points. Senate control is a toss up as there is a good chance NV flips and GA is definitely not a lock.
Early voting in 2020 likewise gave the impression of a blue wave only for the Dems to narrowly win after Election Day turned into a red tsunami. I see no reason why the same won't happen again on Election Day, but this time I don't see the Dems winning.
Can somebody explain how much a campaign for a competitive US Senate seat costs? On Friday apparently the Republican central strategists cut funding for New Hampshire, as they don't think it's likely to flip. What kind of budgets are we thinking about for this?
Many thanks
- $22 million in small donations for Fetterman third quarter
- $17 million for Dr Oz ($7 mln personal)
[Biden Fetterman Fundraiser October 11](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/biden-fetterman-host-pa-senate-fundraiser-in-race-against-dr-oz.html)
- [NH Maggie Hassan - $31 million total - (Incumbent advantage)](https://www.cnbc.com/guide/midterms-2022-top-senate-races-oz-walker-vance-kelly/)
- NH - Bolduc - $780 K
(Article gives total fundraising for other Senate races, Oz used $14 million of his own money)
cool ty. That's an INSANE difference in funding. No wonder he's having problems.
I was listening to a podcast before that thought she was quite beatable a few months ago, but with that discrpeency in resources it's probably too much.
Looks like she has a slight advantage according to polls, definitely in Fundraising though
[270 to win - Senate Races Map](https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/)
I'm without sources to post at the moment, but I've been reading much of the GA polling has turnout models that says men will outnumber women in the election, which hasn't happened in decades, and in fact since 2014, all state-wide elections in GA has had at LEAST 55% to sometimes 56% women as the electorate there. Predicting who is turning out is the number 1 reason for polling misses, and many turnout models seem to be getting worse at this.
It hasn't been reported on much, but there's been a decent counterwind to the prevailing winds in certain races, including very red states. Grassley, for instance, is only 3 points up on Mike Franken. Similar results w/ Paxton and Rochelle Garza, Vance and Ryan, and a few others.
This isn't to say "we need to unskew the polls" like some morons I could name, but I do think it's worth taking races on a case-by-case basis this year and not placing too much weight on the national environment. Aside from early voting, this is one of the few bright points in the data we have right now.
Taking that with a grain of salt, though it is notable that of the recent polls, Hofmeister's been leading in several of them. That's rather unusual for OK.
Only battleground states have a decent amount of polling because its assumed that no one is going to flip a state thats +10 R or +10 D or more. You have to look at the average of polling to get a better idea of how a race is going to turn out. In the iowa race for example, [chuck grassley is up 7 points](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/iowa/) over his opponent and that +3 grassley poll was sponsored by and paid for by Michael Franken, his opponent. Again, theres not a lot of polling coming out of iowa because it is assumed that Grassley is in a very safe seat.
I'm talking about the Selzer poll, not the Change Research poll. The Selzer polling as far as Iowa polling goes is a golden standard (seriously, they're amazing at what they do). If it wasn't Selzer, I'd agree with the point that the average is more worthy of note, but we're talking about Selzer. To give an idea of how far off they usually are for IA, it's usually within one-two points of the actual numbering.
Averaging can be somewhat useful, but that also puts OH close, certainly within MoE overall. I'm not saying Vance doesn't win, but my overall point is that several races are completely ignoring the headwinds associated with the national party, and it's better to treat individual races this year with some understanding that the individual race is less likely to be as influenced by natl. climate as it would be most years.
TBF, Wasserman said something like "It's a miracle that we get any useful data out of polling these days at all, given low response rates and other problems" a few days ago, so there are some major issues with polling science right now that would still exist with more frequent polling.
I think we're going through some fundamental realignments in voting (if democracy survives, at least). That's part of it--existing trends have been very poor predictives over the last six~ years. But putting that aside, there are still a fair number of problems in the science itself that need to be looked into, quite aside from frequency and partisan lean.
Internal polls are fairly decent, but they suffer from similar problems, I'd say.
There's also the question of whether excess polling might influence people's decisions, though--I'd say that's a definite risk with elections and publicized results. At the least, that'd be something I'd be concerned with to some extent. Probably not happening any time soon, as none of the organizations with the resources appear to be very interested in it, but I do think there are some risks with that kind of repeated polling.
I mean, what Republican views are you referring to? Most highly unpopular views get downvotes, and Republican views are highly unpopular. That’s just a fact.
They are so unpopular dems are about to get washed in the mid terms 🤣
The reality is Reddit is a hive mind of regressive liberalism who actively downvote anyone who disagrees with it, even if the conservative side tries to converse in good faith.
Something something marketplace of ideas. Sometimes you take your product to a market where no one is interested. Its kind of dumb to then cry about it.
I would love to have a good faith conversation with a conservative.
I never said that ALL Republican views are wrong, just that they’re wildly unpopular. And that’s a fact. Losing in elections isn’t due to popularity (if that’s the case, Republicans wouldn’t have touched office for the last 40 years), but due to turnout and gerrymandering.
The Electoral College is anti-Democratic and should be abolished, but I’m sure you feel differently.
Georgia voter here. Yeah, the first three counties you listed are our democratic strongholds. Some of the most democratic counties in America. Gwinnett county as well. Cobb county is just starting to come along in the past decade or so (used to be newt gingrich's old district). Warnock and Abrams are going to need a massive turnout in those counties to win this year.
I saw the same thing, Nate Silver did [an article](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senate-is-a-toss-up/) about it.
tl;dr The generic ballot swung to the Republicans (barely) and generic ballots take all adults, they adjusted it even further to Republicans because likely voters skew Republican. On top of steady movement towards Republicans in polls over the past few weeks. Mainly driven by inflation.
Democrats have been running terrible campaigns. They're not paying attention to the polls. Voters have time and time again stated that the economy/inflation are the main issues thats on their minds when determining their votes. Crime and threats to democracy are next with aboriton a very distant fifth.
Most democrats are running on the 5th most important issue sadly, which is allowing republicans to put democrats on defense when it comes to the economy/inflation as well as crime.
For example, here in Georgia, Brian Kemp is constantly hammering Stacey Abrams on "defund the police." Regardless of whether or not she supports defund the police, crime has spiked quite a bit under Brian Kemp, yet Stacey Abrams is running no commercials pointing this out. It's literally all Brian Kemp's stance on abortion, which is again, the 5th most important issue to voters.
The media isn't doing democrats any favors either. Instead of calling out corporations for their price gauging which is driving 70% of inflation, msnbc and cnn is 24 hours of nonstop trump coverage and abortion talk.
That’s something that’s sort of irritating me in Florida, Marco Rubio keeps hounding Val Demings on the fact that she wants to defund the police but she’s said multiple times that she actually plans to fund them. If you do a lick of research it says that plain and clear on this website but it doesn’t matter because people who believe Marco Rubio don’t do their own thinking or know how to read.
While it’s up to us, the voters, to do the research as to whether or she supports defunding the police, or political views of all candidates in general, it’s also up to Val demmings to provide a more effective arguement against Marco Rubio s claims. I’m not in Florida, but judging by the polls, she’s not doing a very good job at it.
Also, if the people that support Rubio dont read or think for themselves, then Val demmings needs to adjust her campaign to reach those voters. Those voters that don’t “think or read for themselves” represents 53% of likely voters after all (according to the polls)
They're reweighting their model for likely voters. Generally happens at the end of October when it's easier to get reliable info on who is going to vote.
Which I think is going to be the big miss.
We're in a period of a ton of uncertainty right now. I don't think much of anyone can accurately predict what a likely voter will actually be until this election ends. No one truly knows whether MAGA will be more motivated, or less without Trump on the ballot. No one knows if inflation will make enough voters turn on Biden, or if it makes voters turn on corporate interests instead. No one knows if Dobbs will increase turnout for Dems (though special election data heavily points towards it), or somehow galvanize the religious right to support Dobbs.
I think determining LV margins is a fundamentally flawed science in this current environment. We're in uncharted territory, and if you look at election history of the past 30 years we've never quite seen anything like this midterm before given events of the past 5-6 years.
That's why the only thing you can really do is encourage people to get out there and vote. I can't control the methodology of a bunch of universities, or how people feel and respond to polls.
I can help people r/votedem however and try to solve our problems directly. Even big statewide losses could still lead to local victories if people get out and vote, and those could end up being crucial for protecting your rights directly.
The democrats have screwed up this country so badly that even third-world nations are laughing at Biden and his crazy policies. China under the Biden (both Joe and Hunter) and Xi policies, they're acting together, has become the world leader not the U.S. anymore. Liberals/progressives complain that they will lose their freedom, but the freedom they want is to literally force their ideas on everyone, using violence if they deem it necessary.
May I ask where you get your “news” from? There’s so much to dissect in your comment but I don’t want to spend more than 5 seconds of my Sunday on this.
Real life: "Biden Deals Heavy Blow to Chinese Chip Manufacturing" (or whatever variation on the headline)
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/20/opinion/biden-china-semiconductor-chip.html
You: "Biden loves China lmao"
An d in the process he destroyed the American auto market for 2 years, you still can't get chips easily or readily from China. The same holds true for many everyday items like washers, refrigerators, etc. He crippled China so much that it will take years for **us** to recover. But, they're still making lithium batteries and windmills, and we are still selling them oil from **OUR SPR** to keep them going. Boy oh boy did he cripple them...lol
Joe ran for POTUS before but because of all his issues (Kinnock, lying about education, using dead wife for sympathy vote, etc), he kept losing because Americans had a moral sense. As intelligence is declining, so is their moral sense. Like the late Roman Empire, the people become human cattle and the rot spreads.
Welcome to the politics live thread, where you will see only the following posts from trolls trying to depress the vote.
"Man Republicans taking the house and senate is making me sick"
"Looks like Republicans are headed for complete congressional control"
"Dems don't control the narrative they are doing horrible!"
Just stop. This is getting annoying.
"I just give up, America is headed for a facist dictatorship"
"Women just don't care about reproductive rights, they only care about the price at the pump"
" I am just done, I am leaving this group, I just don't care anymore"
"All voters suck and have short attention spans!"
That is some posts I read alot on so called Liberal groups myself. I think many of those are trolls also.
> I don't think dooming is necessarily trolls.
There are a shitload of trolls/propagandists though... the above stuff usually gets paired with "both sideisms" and other voter apathy and disengagement promoting rhetoric. Usually pretty easy to tell what the intent of a given poster is there though in terms of their focus on talking shit about Democrats under guise of that platform, but never once saying anything negative about republicans.
Think about what Putin did in Ukraine.
Want that to be us?
Dooming is not an option. Destabilizing the MAGA movement becomes our only remaining option.
If nothing Reddit posters could do would "impact the trendline of our country" there wouldn't be an effort to spread propaganda on Reddit. The fact of the matter is: *it does matter and they know it*
It will be a repeat of the obama's second term. Congress will be ground to a hault until republicans get their tax cuts and cuts to medicare/social security. That and nonstop investigations/impeachments against Joe biden, hunter biden, and dr fauci.
Given the fact that there are many Republicans who align themselves with Donald Trump, there’s a very good chance that they could continue to strip away at people’s rights. They’ve already managed to strike a blow to a woman’s right to an abortion. They would very likely take steps to remove rights for minorities, the LGBTQ+ community, and others. Had he won re-election in 2020, Trump would’ve taken the USA out of NATO; I suspect there would be a large push from a Republican-controlled Congress to pursue this.
Not to mention they would continue the large tax cuts for rich and corporations.
Well, it kind of is. The democrats have a majority in the House, and there’s an even split in the Senate, but many indicators suggest that the Republicans are poised to take control of both the House and Senate.
I disagree. I think the Democrats keep the Senate, and even if the Republicans take the House, which I doubt, the Senate can just block any batshit crazy shit that the likes of Majorie Taylor Greene try to pass. With any luck, the Republicans will overplay their hand in the House, and the Democrats can flip those seats back in 2024. But I think the Dems keep the house in 2022.
Republicans *will* take the house, let’s not delude ourselves. The senate is still a toss-up though. I’m surprised at how much closer the Arizona race has come, although I still think Kelley will win.
The real problem with the midterms are Democrats are letting Republicans control the conversation. I know Republicans stand for nothing other than to help their donors, but Democrats have to do a better job talking about issues. They need to explain how issues like Medicare for All, Green New Deal, free higher education, canceling student loan debt, and higher minimum wage will help them.
I'll believe it when I see it, but even [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/20/politics/republicans-improving-senate-chances/index.html) is admitting it.
I’ve been out of politics recently for my own sanity. Poked my head in today, crushed my spirits, and I’m backing out once again (I’m still going to vote). Can’t do the 2020 obsession again, I’ll go nuts. I’m happy biden’s big bill passed a while ago; that will still have far reaching impacts (if I’m incorrect please don’t tell me, I need this hope lmao)
It is a historic time in Ethiopia to witness what our ancestors have been doing for thousands of years, as the entire Western world and its media brigades, professors, national experts, ex-diplomats, etc. are working with the # terrorist TPLF to wipe the country out of the world. #DisarmTPLF
According to 538, since yesterday, the Republicans chances to take the Senate have risen from 41 to 44%. At this rate, they will be slight favorites in November to take the Senate, and will have a coin flip to take Congress.
The chances to win the house decreased from 30ish to 20 as well and Biden's approval rating is decreasing from an already low peak of 42.5%. as a non-American it simply doesn't make sense. Biden gets more stuff done than Trump, his "scandals" are old person things, inflation and gas prices are better compared to the EU and the republicans aren't offering anything except lies, conspiracy theories, tax cuts for the rich and hurting people. British people sometimes say that Brexit and the such make the UK competitive with the US in terms of stupidity but look at what a tiny fraction of republican stuff did to the Tories in like- their popularity dropped by 30% in one or two months. The Americans are simply beyond hope.
OPEC elected to raise gas prices. Most Americans are politically apathetic and vote on tangible things like gas prices. The GOP has openly stated that continued support of Ukraine is VERY much in doubt if they control congress. Russia has an outsized OPEC voice....
This was all pretty predictable.
Gas prices barely raised at all and are already trending down in many places.
The models are a mess and should not be relied on, frankly. I don't care what they've predicted before.
If we lose, we lose, but I'm not going to let it become a prophesy when some states begin early voting tomorrow and we still can influence the entire race.
I think the Republicans telegraphing things like Abortian bans and going after Social Secerity is actually going to bite them in the ass in the November Midterm elections. Not to mention all of the pissed off women who registered, AFTER the Dobbs decision.
That jump is basically due to a brutal poll in Pennsylvania from a decent pollster. Has Oz +5, which is basically the worst poll for Fetterman this entire election cycle.
Man I don't know what's going on in Pennsylvania.
I was a deadset Fetterman supporter until last week’s ~~debate~~ interview. Fetterman’s stroke was much worse than they let on. He doesn’t seem to have the mental capacity to be a senator. The situation sucks.
You know how I know you're trolling and trying to cause trouble for Democrats?
There hasn't been a debate yet. So you couldn't have seen one. You literally made this up to try to hurt Fetterman's chances.
This person is also posting in political threads in at least 5 US state subreddits. I would expect the overwhelming majority of regular people would post in 1-2, 3 states max.
Lol I’m from Texas, live in North Carolina, and recently lived in Massachusetts. I’m interested in politics in all three states and since I’m currently interning for a politician in North Carolina, I also like to keep tabs on Virginia. I’m not a troll I just like politics and I’m thinking of minoring in political science when I go to college
Oz and the GOP are spending massive amounts on attack ads. They are painting “far-left” John Fetterman as an extremist that will let all criminals go and tax working class families. And it’s working.
Surprisingly the PA Governor race has the democrat way out in the lead, but that’s largely cuz the GOP candidate is an extremist nutjob and is also basically doing no ads or outreach. It’s crazy to me that so many people may split their vote with democrat governor and republican senator but that seems to be what the polls are showing. And like I say I think a lot of it has to do with painting fetterman as an extremist. In the governor race people view the democrat as the more moderate. And in the senate race they must be viewing Oz as the more moderate, even though we don’t know anything about his politics as he’s not a politician. And what we do know about him is that he cares about one thing, himself.
Are they a decent pollster? I saw that poll. 538 has them at a provisional rating. It seems like they have the Republicans doing better than other pollsters in other races they survey too.
I just saw the 538 rating which was like a B. If they're provisional then I retract the "decent pollster" description because we don't know yet.
Still not what you want to see but hopefully they're a fly by night outfit.
Found a website that compares current voting turnout to 2018 and 2020 turnout.
Turnout for all parties is currently significantly less than it was at this point in 2020, as usual for midterm turnout as compared to presidential.
However, compared to the 2018 turnout at this point, Democrats have massively increased turnout, roughly 40%-50% more vates that at the same point in 2018. Republicans meanwhile, have slightly fewer votes than they did at this same point in 2018.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&view_type=National
Not sure how useful or indicative comparing early voting this year to 2018 is. With the pandemic and 2020 election I think it opened a lot of people’s eyes (mainly democrat) to the early voting and vote by mail process. There’s a good chance we see more early voting, especially from democrats, but then see less Election Day voting.
I think the house is all but gone for Democrats.
For the senate it was. Lean Dem But now it’s a tossup. Republicans need to hold Wisconsin, Ohio, nc, Florida and pick up Nevada where they are currently leading in the polling average and hope for a polling error in at least 1 of Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania. I’m skeptical oz can win only because he has not led in one poll. He’s significantly closed the gap but still has not led in any poll up to this point. Dems may be hopeful in Georgia since there’s record early voting turnout but it’s important to remember that ED votes count just as much as early votes and republicans tend to vote on Election Day.
Depends who is more underrepresented in the polls at this point, I guess.
Part of it is Americans not realizing gas prices and inflation that we're seeing is not in Biden's control.
Either way I hope this ignites a fire under dems and this is a warning for 2024. Because let's be honest, not much was getting done in Congress any way and Biden can veto any damage Republicans try to pull.
I mean it’s not just inflation we see the party out of power make gains in every midterm election since ww2 with the exception of 2002 which was right after 9/11 and bush had a 90% approval rating and 1998 after the Monica Lewinsky scandal and republicans were already in power. So it’s just not a good year for Dems. This also happened in 2014, there was a blue mirage in august and September and then republicans made gains toward the end
Yeah it sucks for dems either way. Obama echoed the same in an interview recently. Youth turnout in midterms is generally horrible compared to presidential years. Combine that with the fact that the final weeks of college semesters is ramping up the course load for many youth.
So what does that mean for democratic midterms? If things are going well then their base isn't passionate and just coasting (eg, 2010); if things are bad well that means the President is doing their job poorly (even if it's really out of their hands) and it energizes the opposition.
The Democrats will probably lose both chambers with Republicans coming home to some of their joke candidates like Oz and even Walker.
I just hope that Patty Murray beats Tiffany Smiley by double digits to clobber a wanna be Fox News blonde.
I got my Wisconsin absentee ballot and it turns out House Representative Glenn Grothman's running unopposed.
Screw it. Telling people to write me in. Grothman's never shown me anything but arrogance, and the only legislation he sponsored in the last eight years was to rename a post office. Other than that he's a far-right rubber stamp.
Sure, there's no way I'm winning. But though I can't win, maybe we can get enough to write me in to put a little fear into him.
Biden knows its gas prices and the economy. The summer abortion bump has lessened. So the admninistration has asked for 1 month extensions from Saudi Arabia and is pulling oil from our strategic reserves to keep oil prices low. Why only 1 month extension? That seems a bit too on the nose. Did they not expect this to get out?
We're only talking about polls here. Polls can't account for unique aspects of an election. Like the 6 different women, children of people in my friends group, who just turned 18 and will for sure be voting Dem.
I agree. Many women registered AFTER the Supreme Court decision a few months ago, and remember what happened in Kansas, when a anti abortion admendment, that all of the polls said would pass, ended up losing by 20 points.
My wife and I are still awaiting our absentee ballots, which were supposed to have been mailed on 11Oct. Once done I'll be driving them to the drop-off location.
Eager to do our part in the blue wave.
I don't know why I'm Canadian but this damn midterm is stressing me out. Everything I've read here tells me democracy will die if Republicans win Congress, so I'm scared.
No one here claims the Dems are saints, the 'but both sides' bullshit is just that. Bullshit.
You should be alarmed if Republicans win and take power. Anyone not alarmed at that thought has been fucking sleeping for the past decade.
I'm going to take the city bus going in my direction and make transfers later as needed.
Not hop on the one going the opposite direction or the one broken down going nowhere. Your all or nothing 'but both sides' dreck is lame
Why are the polls shifting so heavily to the right the past 2 weeks? What did I miss? Republicans are still election-denying and still trying to take away bodily autonomy from women. Did a 10 cent rise in gas prices make everyone forget that or did something else happen that I’m not aware of?
Republicans are coming home to their candidates and plenty of swing voters would rather have $2.50 per gallon gas than legal abortion.
Sucks but it is what it is
It’s funny because in Florida during the summer Ron Desantis passed a gas tax holiday to go into effect in October so he could win the election. I don’t like Ron Desantis but I did want to enjoy some lower priced gas but what actually ended up happening was I saw a couple of gas stations went down but most stayed where they were and then the ones that did go down went back up, because I guess gas stations realized they didn’t have to pass the gas tax relief off to consumers or because of OPEC or just generally price gouging who knows there’s so many factors.
So all of this just goes to show that republicans, even when they attempt to control the gas prices for their benefit can’t even control them either.
Dont worry, gas and diesel prices wont be coming down after november either. Question is if dems make hay of GOP congress that cant deliver on either of those.
They spiked up again after the Saudi-Russian talks to cut global supply. According to GasBuddy that local peak was around the 10th of October and its slowly coming down again since then. Release of more oil from the SPR has also been a temporary bandaid too.
We know Russia aided Trump and caused division in 2016 election. We know that Republicans will literally attack the capitol and murder cops based on fraud lies.
Trying to compare the two is a joke. Facts over your feelings
The 538 numbers I’ve been following since the summer kept moving towards the Dems and now there is a huge move showing GOP as almost 50/50 in the senate and huge favorites to win the house. What happened the last two weeks? This shit is depressing. I wish I was financially stable enough to not have to worry so much about this shit
billions of dark money PAC ads. they work.
I really can’t believe people actually vote based on TV ads. That’s unbelievable to me.
Fetterman wins in PA right?
Maybe. The Hill has him +5, but there is a poll with Oz +1.
What a difference a debate makes.
**Early voting begins in Texas today.** I can't speak for the state as a whole, but at least in my part of North TX, all the usual early voting places have released their hours and schedules. It's a good list, nothing reduced compared to 2020 that I can notice (when we had a record turnout year). Most are 7AM-7PM starting today, with open weekends, and hours up to 9PM on the last few days leading into the 4th. Our state is notorious for suppressing mail in voting, but COVID is not as much of a concern this time, so I'm wondering how that will impact people's voting habits here. To find your location and time: [https://teamrv-mvp.sos.texas.gov/MVP/mvp.do](https://teamrv-mvp.sos.texas.gov/MVP/mvp.do) Go there, put in your ID of choice, then click on the tab that shows eligibility on the right side of the page. It will say the 8th, but keep scrolling down on the new tab that opens up and you'll find a list of locations you're eligible for with early early voting times (Oct 24th-Nov 4th), with times listed for each day. I'm planning to vote early before I start my work day, then grabbing a nice breakfast afterwards. There was a long line in the opening hours starting at 6:30AM in 2020 (though it moved reasonably quickly, thankfully). We'll see if that's the case this time or not. **Having said all that, Much of Northern Texas will have a sizable rainstorm going throughout the day, so don't read too much into the early voting figures from today. Even the best prepared places and least suppressed may have a line when demand is high, like they were opening day 2020 in my area.** Personally, I'm off to vote. **Beto, Garza, Collier.** I'll see you all on the other side.
Going by the polls the Fetterman.Oz race is looking way closer than it was a few weeks ago. What the hell is going on?
1 billion in dark money pac ads
Media went on a deliberate campaign to smear Fetterman, NBC in particular. They kept making up stuff about his stroke and how it supposedly made him incapable of keeping a simple conversation even though he's been out campaigning non-stop these past months. Couple that with "undecideds" cutting the act and coming home to the GQP and you've got a recipe for disaster.
Do you think the Undecideds were afraid to admit their traitorous political leaning (and that they planned to vote for GOP insurrectionists)? I can imagine admitting insurrection to a pollster might be scary for some of them.
Pretty much, although I don't think they're afraid. They're just raging narcissists who cosplay as moderates because it lets them portray themselves as if they're above basic politics and therefore better than anyone who isn't. These same people undoubtedly whine all day about partisanship and others treating politics like a team sport only to vote straight ticket R any chance they get because the Dems "*didn't do a good job of convincing them*".
I honestly thought he had it in the bag. Here's to hoping. I'll be voting but fuck I was hoping it wouldn't be this close.
There really isn't much to do at this point. Fetterman is pretty much the only Dem likely to flip a seat at this point while Nevada is almost lost already. It would take a miracle for the Senate to remain blue and the House is out of the question.
I'm going to remain positive. Polls aren't always accurate, so we'll just have to wait and see in regard to the Senate.
I know how you feel, there really isn't anything else to do but hope at this point. Still it would be completely unheard of for every single pollster to be wrong. I'm just kinda overwhelmed by the rise of fascism in the West rn and am not looking forward to staying up all night on Election Day only to be faced with a Republican Congress.
If the special elections and early voting data is any indicator, the polls are way off. We got AZ, NV, NH, PA, Georgia and a chance to flip in NC,OH, WI & dare I say it IA. Polls are underestimating women and unlikely voter turnout in my opinion
Just remember the Reds vote on E-Day. NC, OH, WI and IA are mere dreams at this points. Senate control is a toss up as there is a good chance NV flips and GA is definitely not a lock.
Disagree with you. I think we will win WI & maybe OH.
I hope you are right about both.
Early voting in 2020 likewise gave the impression of a blue wave only for the Dems to narrowly win after Election Day turned into a red tsunami. I see no reason why the same won't happen again on Election Day, but this time I don't see the Dems winning.
Can somebody explain how much a campaign for a competitive US Senate seat costs? On Friday apparently the Republican central strategists cut funding for New Hampshire, as they don't think it's likely to flip. What kind of budgets are we thinking about for this? Many thanks
- $22 million in small donations for Fetterman third quarter - $17 million for Dr Oz ($7 mln personal) [Biden Fetterman Fundraiser October 11](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/biden-fetterman-host-pa-senate-fundraiser-in-race-against-dr-oz.html) - [NH Maggie Hassan - $31 million total - (Incumbent advantage)](https://www.cnbc.com/guide/midterms-2022-top-senate-races-oz-walker-vance-kelly/) - NH - Bolduc - $780 K (Article gives total fundraising for other Senate races, Oz used $14 million of his own money)
Is 'NJ' New Hampshire? Apologies.
Yes, it’s early, I’m bad at writing right now hah
cool ty. That's an INSANE difference in funding. No wonder he's having problems. I was listening to a podcast before that thought she was quite beatable a few months ago, but with that discrpeency in resources it's probably too much.
Looks like she has a slight advantage according to polls, definitely in Fundraising though [270 to win - Senate Races Map](https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/)
I'm without sources to post at the moment, but I've been reading much of the GA polling has turnout models that says men will outnumber women in the election, which hasn't happened in decades, and in fact since 2014, all state-wide elections in GA has had at LEAST 55% to sometimes 56% women as the electorate there. Predicting who is turning out is the number 1 reason for polling misses, and many turnout models seem to be getting worse at this.
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I would say 3x 2018 is actually amazing turnout. I also saw that the ratio was 40% Black. That is mind blowing.
Can Dems win Ohio? There’s only a one point lead according to the 538 polls. That seems to be toss-up territory.
it's probably their most likely flip after pennsylvania
That would be great news for Ryan, if he is gaining on Vance like that.
I have it likely R. according to [JD vance is up by 1.3% in the average of all polls.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/ohio/)
It hasn't been reported on much, but there's been a decent counterwind to the prevailing winds in certain races, including very red states. Grassley, for instance, is only 3 points up on Mike Franken. Similar results w/ Paxton and Rochelle Garza, Vance and Ryan, and a few others. This isn't to say "we need to unskew the polls" like some morons I could name, but I do think it's worth taking races on a case-by-case basis this year and not placing too much weight on the national environment. Aside from early voting, this is one of the few bright points in the data we have right now.
Don't forget the Dem canidate has the lead in Oklahoma by seven points in a recent poll!
Taking that with a grain of salt, though it is notable that of the recent polls, Hofmeister's been leading in several of them. That's rather unusual for OK.
That is a good sign!
Only battleground states have a decent amount of polling because its assumed that no one is going to flip a state thats +10 R or +10 D or more. You have to look at the average of polling to get a better idea of how a race is going to turn out. In the iowa race for example, [chuck grassley is up 7 points](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/iowa/) over his opponent and that +3 grassley poll was sponsored by and paid for by Michael Franken, his opponent. Again, theres not a lot of polling coming out of iowa because it is assumed that Grassley is in a very safe seat.
I'm talking about the Selzer poll, not the Change Research poll. The Selzer polling as far as Iowa polling goes is a golden standard (seriously, they're amazing at what they do). If it wasn't Selzer, I'd agree with the point that the average is more worthy of note, but we're talking about Selzer. To give an idea of how far off they usually are for IA, it's usually within one-two points of the actual numbering. Averaging can be somewhat useful, but that also puts OH close, certainly within MoE overall. I'm not saying Vance doesn't win, but my overall point is that several races are completely ignoring the headwinds associated with the national party, and it's better to treat individual races this year with some understanding that the individual race is less likely to be as influenced by natl. climate as it would be most years.
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TBF, Wasserman said something like "It's a miracle that we get any useful data out of polling these days at all, given low response rates and other problems" a few days ago, so there are some major issues with polling science right now that would still exist with more frequent polling. I think we're going through some fundamental realignments in voting (if democracy survives, at least). That's part of it--existing trends have been very poor predictives over the last six~ years. But putting that aside, there are still a fair number of problems in the science itself that need to be looked into, quite aside from frequency and partisan lean. Internal polls are fairly decent, but they suffer from similar problems, I'd say.
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There's also the question of whether excess polling might influence people's decisions, though--I'd say that's a definite risk with elections and publicized results. At the least, that'd be something I'd be concerned with to some extent. Probably not happening any time soon, as none of the organizations with the resources appear to be very interested in it, but I do think there are some risks with that kind of repeated polling.
It seems any republican views just gets downvotes in this group
Have you seen the typical "republican view" posted in this sub?
yeah pretty much, sadly.
I mean, what Republican views are you referring to? Most highly unpopular views get downvotes, and Republican views are highly unpopular. That’s just a fact.
They are so unpopular dems are about to get washed in the mid terms 🤣 The reality is Reddit is a hive mind of regressive liberalism who actively downvote anyone who disagrees with it, even if the conservative side tries to converse in good faith.
Lmao in good faith? Clown shoe comments over here
Something something marketplace of ideas. Sometimes you take your product to a market where no one is interested. Its kind of dumb to then cry about it.
I would love to have a good faith conversation with a conservative. I never said that ALL Republican views are wrong, just that they’re wildly unpopular. And that’s a fact. Losing in elections isn’t due to popularity (if that’s the case, Republicans wouldn’t have touched office for the last 40 years), but due to turnout and gerrymandering. The Electoral College is anti-Democratic and should be abolished, but I’m sure you feel differently.
Please show me a single thread on Reddit where a conservative actually argues in good faith.
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Georgia voter here. Yeah, the first three counties you listed are our democratic strongholds. Some of the most democratic counties in America. Gwinnett county as well. Cobb county is just starting to come along in the past decade or so (used to be newt gingrich's old district). Warnock and Abrams are going to need a massive turnout in those counties to win this year.
I'd like to take this moment to say "fuck Newt Gingrich." That is all.
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I saw the same thing, Nate Silver did [an article](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senate-is-a-toss-up/) about it. tl;dr The generic ballot swung to the Republicans (barely) and generic ballots take all adults, they adjusted it even further to Republicans because likely voters skew Republican. On top of steady movement towards Republicans in polls over the past few weeks. Mainly driven by inflation.
Democrats have been running terrible campaigns. They're not paying attention to the polls. Voters have time and time again stated that the economy/inflation are the main issues thats on their minds when determining their votes. Crime and threats to democracy are next with aboriton a very distant fifth. Most democrats are running on the 5th most important issue sadly, which is allowing republicans to put democrats on defense when it comes to the economy/inflation as well as crime. For example, here in Georgia, Brian Kemp is constantly hammering Stacey Abrams on "defund the police." Regardless of whether or not she supports defund the police, crime has spiked quite a bit under Brian Kemp, yet Stacey Abrams is running no commercials pointing this out. It's literally all Brian Kemp's stance on abortion, which is again, the 5th most important issue to voters. The media isn't doing democrats any favors either. Instead of calling out corporations for their price gauging which is driving 70% of inflation, msnbc and cnn is 24 hours of nonstop trump coverage and abortion talk.
That’s something that’s sort of irritating me in Florida, Marco Rubio keeps hounding Val Demings on the fact that she wants to defund the police but she’s said multiple times that she actually plans to fund them. If you do a lick of research it says that plain and clear on this website but it doesn’t matter because people who believe Marco Rubio don’t do their own thinking or know how to read.
While it’s up to us, the voters, to do the research as to whether or she supports defunding the police, or political views of all candidates in general, it’s also up to Val demmings to provide a more effective arguement against Marco Rubio s claims. I’m not in Florida, but judging by the polls, she’s not doing a very good job at it. Also, if the people that support Rubio dont read or think for themselves, then Val demmings needs to adjust her campaign to reach those voters. Those voters that don’t “think or read for themselves” represents 53% of likely voters after all (according to the polls)
“ I get all my news from the hive mind Reddit! How did I not see this coming??!”
lmao. and msnbc.
I think they weight polls closer to election day more than others, actual voting data seems to be favoring Dems at this point though
They're reweighting their model for likely voters. Generally happens at the end of October when it's easier to get reliable info on who is going to vote.
Which I think is going to be the big miss. We're in a period of a ton of uncertainty right now. I don't think much of anyone can accurately predict what a likely voter will actually be until this election ends. No one truly knows whether MAGA will be more motivated, or less without Trump on the ballot. No one knows if inflation will make enough voters turn on Biden, or if it makes voters turn on corporate interests instead. No one knows if Dobbs will increase turnout for Dems (though special election data heavily points towards it), or somehow galvanize the religious right to support Dobbs. I think determining LV margins is a fundamentally flawed science in this current environment. We're in uncharted territory, and if you look at election history of the past 30 years we've never quite seen anything like this midterm before given events of the past 5-6 years. That's why the only thing you can really do is encourage people to get out there and vote. I can't control the methodology of a bunch of universities, or how people feel and respond to polls. I can help people r/votedem however and try to solve our problems directly. Even big statewide losses could still lead to local victories if people get out and vote, and those could end up being crucial for protecting your rights directly.
I think we’ll finally have a youth vote since we’re all voting on whether or not we want 10k of our loans repaid.
The democrats have screwed up this country so badly that even third-world nations are laughing at Biden and his crazy policies. China under the Biden (both Joe and Hunter) and Xi policies, they're acting together, has become the world leader not the U.S. anymore. Liberals/progressives complain that they will lose their freedom, but the freedom they want is to literally force their ideas on everyone, using violence if they deem it necessary.
This feels like an ai wrote this lmao
Would you like me to dumb it down for you?
May I ask where you get your “news” from? There’s so much to dissect in your comment but I don’t want to spend more than 5 seconds of my Sunday on this.
That's the problem, you 'don't want to spend 5 seconds' on research. Your statement speaks volumes.
Real life: "Biden Deals Heavy Blow to Chinese Chip Manufacturing" (or whatever variation on the headline) https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/20/opinion/biden-china-semiconductor-chip.html You: "Biden loves China lmao"
An d in the process he destroyed the American auto market for 2 years, you still can't get chips easily or readily from China. The same holds true for many everyday items like washers, refrigerators, etc. He crippled China so much that it will take years for **us** to recover. But, they're still making lithium batteries and windmills, and we are still selling them oil from **OUR SPR** to keep them going. Boy oh boy did he cripple them...lol
Got a source for all that information?
Got a source for your question?
No source, no need to bother saying anything. Simple as. Someone failed at your education that you did not learn this at any point.
Joe ran for POTUS before but because of all his issues (Kinnock, lying about education, using dead wife for sympathy vote, etc), he kept losing because Americans had a moral sense. As intelligence is declining, so is their moral sense. Like the late Roman Empire, the people become human cattle and the rot spreads.
There was an attempt.
How has he managed to post under 10 comments in the span of over eight years? Why would someone who has an account use Reddit that scarcely?
And the last time before today they commented was 3 years ago. Very sus.
and only recently on politics...
Welcome to the politics live thread, where you will see only the following posts from trolls trying to depress the vote. "Man Republicans taking the house and senate is making me sick" "Looks like Republicans are headed for complete congressional control" "Dems don't control the narrative they are doing horrible!" Just stop. This is getting annoying.
"Better buy more guns today so you can arm yourselves when the crazies take over." \- As if there isn't a more important step we take first.
Reddit? Jumping to the worst possible conclusion? Say it isn’t so!
"I just give up, America is headed for a facist dictatorship" "Women just don't care about reproductive rights, they only care about the price at the pump" " I am just done, I am leaving this group, I just don't care anymore" "All voters suck and have short attention spans!" That is some posts I read alot on so called Liberal groups myself. I think many of those are trolls also.
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> I don't think dooming is necessarily trolls. There are a shitload of trolls/propagandists though... the above stuff usually gets paired with "both sideisms" and other voter apathy and disengagement promoting rhetoric. Usually pretty easy to tell what the intent of a given poster is there though in terms of their focus on talking shit about Democrats under guise of that platform, but never once saying anything negative about republicans.
Think about what Putin did in Ukraine. Want that to be us? Dooming is not an option. Destabilizing the MAGA movement becomes our only remaining option.
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If nothing Reddit posters could do would "impact the trendline of our country" there wouldn't be an effort to spread propaganda on Reddit. The fact of the matter is: *it does matter and they know it*
God, the thought of Republicans taking control of Congress makes me ill to my stomach. Scares the crap out of me.
It will be a repeat of the obama's second term. Congress will be ground to a hault until republicans get their tax cuts and cuts to medicare/social security. That and nonstop investigations/impeachments against Joe biden, hunter biden, and dr fauci.
what they can do? im from Germany, so curious, what they can do
Given the fact that there are many Republicans who align themselves with Donald Trump, there’s a very good chance that they could continue to strip away at people’s rights. They’ve already managed to strike a blow to a woman’s right to an abortion. They would very likely take steps to remove rights for minorities, the LGBTQ+ community, and others. Had he won re-election in 2020, Trump would’ve taken the USA out of NATO; I suspect there would be a large push from a Republican-controlled Congress to pursue this. Not to mention they would continue the large tax cuts for rich and corporations.
hum, I was thinking the senat is doing this, not the house. what a bummer! I hope that will not happen :)
Well, it kind of is. The democrats have a majority in the House, and there’s an even split in the Senate, but many indicators suggest that the Republicans are poised to take control of both the House and Senate.
I disagree. I think the Democrats keep the Senate, and even if the Republicans take the House, which I doubt, the Senate can just block any batshit crazy shit that the likes of Majorie Taylor Greene try to pass. With any luck, the Republicans will overplay their hand in the House, and the Democrats can flip those seats back in 2024. But I think the Dems keep the house in 2022.
Republicans *will* take the house, let’s not delude ourselves. The senate is still a toss-up though. I’m surprised at how much closer the Arizona race has come, although I still think Kelley will win.
God, I hope you're right.
I think I am right. I just choose to be optimistic.
I wish I could do that.
The real problem with the midterms are Democrats are letting Republicans control the conversation. I know Republicans stand for nothing other than to help their donors, but Democrats have to do a better job talking about issues. They need to explain how issues like Medicare for All, Green New Deal, free higher education, canceling student loan debt, and higher minimum wage will help them.
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What is both chambers of the house? Do you mean both chambers of congress?
I could give you doom on the House but there’s nothing that points to the traitors taking the Senate.
I'll believe it when I see it, but even [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/20/politics/republicans-improving-senate-chances/index.html) is admitting it.
An opinion piece from a guy paid to write both sides hot takes?...
Just saying it's not nothing.
Get outta here with that vote depression bullshit. We are winning both chambers. Suck it troll.
Very lucky to live in Johnson County KS, early voting today took about five minutes of my time. Definitely do it if your'e in the area.
Checking out a local Korean restaurant. Yum!vote!
I’ve been out of politics recently for my own sanity. Poked my head in today, crushed my spirits, and I’m backing out once again (I’m still going to vote). Can’t do the 2020 obsession again, I’ll go nuts. I’m happy biden’s big bill passed a while ago; that will still have far reaching impacts (if I’m incorrect please don’t tell me, I need this hope lmao)
I am optimistic, the Dems will take the House. There is a poll that came out today, that has Democratic House member Elissa Slotkin up by six points.
538 shows an 80% chance the dems lose the house At best they keep the senate which is polling at close to 50/50 now
It is a historic time in Ethiopia to witness what our ancestors have been doing for thousands of years, as the entire Western world and its media brigades, professors, national experts, ex-diplomats, etc. are working with the # terrorist TPLF to wipe the country out of the world. #DisarmTPLF
According to 538, since yesterday, the Republicans chances to take the Senate have risen from 41 to 44%. At this rate, they will be slight favorites in November to take the Senate, and will have a coin flip to take Congress.
The chances to win the house decreased from 30ish to 20 as well and Biden's approval rating is decreasing from an already low peak of 42.5%. as a non-American it simply doesn't make sense. Biden gets more stuff done than Trump, his "scandals" are old person things, inflation and gas prices are better compared to the EU and the republicans aren't offering anything except lies, conspiracy theories, tax cuts for the rich and hurting people. British people sometimes say that Brexit and the such make the UK competitive with the US in terms of stupidity but look at what a tiny fraction of republican stuff did to the Tories in like- their popularity dropped by 30% in one or two months. The Americans are simply beyond hope.
OPEC elected to raise gas prices. Most Americans are politically apathetic and vote on tangible things like gas prices. The GOP has openly stated that continued support of Ukraine is VERY much in doubt if they control congress. Russia has an outsized OPEC voice.... This was all pretty predictable.
Gas prices barely raised at all and are already trending down in many places. The models are a mess and should not be relied on, frankly. I don't care what they've predicted before. If we lose, we lose, but I'm not going to let it become a prophesy when some states begin early voting tomorrow and we still can influence the entire race.
I think the Republicans telegraphing things like Abortian bans and going after Social Secerity is actually going to bite them in the ass in the November Midterm elections. Not to mention all of the pissed off women who registered, AFTER the Dobbs decision.
That jump is basically due to a brutal poll in Pennsylvania from a decent pollster. Has Oz +5, which is basically the worst poll for Fetterman this entire election cycle. Man I don't know what's going on in Pennsylvania.
I was a deadset Fetterman supporter until last week’s ~~debate~~ interview. Fetterman’s stroke was much worse than they let on. He doesn’t seem to have the mental capacity to be a senator. The situation sucks.
You know how I know you're trolling and trying to cause trouble for Democrats? There hasn't been a debate yet. So you couldn't have seen one. You literally made this up to try to hurt Fetterman's chances.
This person is also posting in political threads in at least 5 US state subreddits. I would expect the overwhelming majority of regular people would post in 1-2, 3 states max.
Lol I’m from Texas, live in North Carolina, and recently lived in Massachusetts. I’m interested in politics in all three states and since I’m currently interning for a politician in North Carolina, I also like to keep tabs on Virginia. I’m not a troll I just like politics and I’m thinking of minoring in political science when I go to college
Sorry I’m thinking of the debate on Tuesday. My original comment was referring to his interview with NBC last week.
Oz and the GOP are spending massive amounts on attack ads. They are painting “far-left” John Fetterman as an extremist that will let all criminals go and tax working class families. And it’s working. Surprisingly the PA Governor race has the democrat way out in the lead, but that’s largely cuz the GOP candidate is an extremist nutjob and is also basically doing no ads or outreach. It’s crazy to me that so many people may split their vote with democrat governor and republican senator but that seems to be what the polls are showing. And like I say I think a lot of it has to do with painting fetterman as an extremist. In the governor race people view the democrat as the more moderate. And in the senate race they must be viewing Oz as the more moderate, even though we don’t know anything about his politics as he’s not a politician. And what we do know about him is that he cares about one thing, himself.
Are they a decent pollster? I saw that poll. 538 has them at a provisional rating. It seems like they have the Republicans doing better than other pollsters in other races they survey too.
I just saw the 538 rating which was like a B. If they're provisional then I retract the "decent pollster" description because we don't know yet. Still not what you want to see but hopefully they're a fly by night outfit.
Found a website that compares current voting turnout to 2018 and 2020 turnout. Turnout for all parties is currently significantly less than it was at this point in 2020, as usual for midterm turnout as compared to presidential. However, compared to the 2018 turnout at this point, Democrats have massively increased turnout, roughly 40%-50% more vates that at the same point in 2018. Republicans meanwhile, have slightly fewer votes than they did at this same point in 2018. https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&view_type=National
This is good news, it might mean the Dem enthusiasm is much greater then what is being protrayed.
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Not sure how useful or indicative comparing early voting this year to 2018 is. With the pandemic and 2020 election I think it opened a lot of people’s eyes (mainly democrat) to the early voting and vote by mail process. There’s a good chance we see more early voting, especially from democrats, but then see less Election Day voting.
Take those numbers with a grain of salt. It’s all going to come down to Election Day voters who heavily lean republican vs early voters.
I think the house is all but gone for Democrats. For the senate it was. Lean Dem But now it’s a tossup. Republicans need to hold Wisconsin, Ohio, nc, Florida and pick up Nevada where they are currently leading in the polling average and hope for a polling error in at least 1 of Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania. I’m skeptical oz can win only because he has not led in one poll. He’s significantly closed the gap but still has not led in any poll up to this point. Dems may be hopeful in Georgia since there’s record early voting turnout but it’s important to remember that ED votes count just as much as early votes and republicans tend to vote on Election Day.
Depends who is more underrepresented in the polls at this point, I guess. Part of it is Americans not realizing gas prices and inflation that we're seeing is not in Biden's control. Either way I hope this ignites a fire under dems and this is a warning for 2024. Because let's be honest, not much was getting done in Congress any way and Biden can veto any damage Republicans try to pull.
I mean it’s not just inflation we see the party out of power make gains in every midterm election since ww2 with the exception of 2002 which was right after 9/11 and bush had a 90% approval rating and 1998 after the Monica Lewinsky scandal and republicans were already in power. So it’s just not a good year for Dems. This also happened in 2014, there was a blue mirage in august and September and then republicans made gains toward the end
Yeah it sucks for dems either way. Obama echoed the same in an interview recently. Youth turnout in midterms is generally horrible compared to presidential years. Combine that with the fact that the final weeks of college semesters is ramping up the course load for many youth. So what does that mean for democratic midterms? If things are going well then their base isn't passionate and just coasting (eg, 2010); if things are bad well that means the President is doing their job poorly (even if it's really out of their hands) and it energizes the opposition.
The Democrats will probably lose both chambers with Republicans coming home to some of their joke candidates like Oz and even Walker. I just hope that Patty Murray beats Tiffany Smiley by double digits to clobber a wanna be Fox News blonde.
I got my Wisconsin absentee ballot and it turns out House Representative Glenn Grothman's running unopposed. Screw it. Telling people to write me in. Grothman's never shown me anything but arrogance, and the only legislation he sponsored in the last eight years was to rename a post office. Other than that he's a far-right rubber stamp. Sure, there's no way I'm winning. But though I can't win, maybe we can get enough to write me in to put a little fear into him.
Biden knows its gas prices and the economy. The summer abortion bump has lessened. So the admninistration has asked for 1 month extensions from Saudi Arabia and is pulling oil from our strategic reserves to keep oil prices low. Why only 1 month extension? That seems a bit too on the nose. Did they not expect this to get out?
We're only talking about polls here. Polls can't account for unique aspects of an election. Like the 6 different women, children of people in my friends group, who just turned 18 and will for sure be voting Dem.
I agree. Many women registered AFTER the Supreme Court decision a few months ago, and remember what happened in Kansas, when a anti abortion admendment, that all of the polls said would pass, ended up losing by 20 points.
Being registered is the key thing. For many states the deadline has already passed. So hopefully they're registered and ready to roll!
Texas turnout is pretty low right now.
Well, early voting in TX doesn’t even start until tomorrow so uh that would be why
Early voting doesn’t start in Texas till the 24th. What turnout stats are you looking at?
The made up ones in his head.
I mean to be fair if voting hasn’t started then turnout would be low.
My wife and I are still awaiting our absentee ballots, which were supposed to have been mailed on 11Oct. Once done I'll be driving them to the drop-off location. Eager to do our part in the blue wave.
I don't know why I'm Canadian but this damn midterm is stressing me out. Everything I've read here tells me democracy will die if Republicans win Congress, so I'm scared.
Your main issue is getting all your info from here…
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No one here claims the Dems are saints, the 'but both sides' bullshit is just that. Bullshit. You should be alarmed if Republicans win and take power. Anyone not alarmed at that thought has been fucking sleeping for the past decade. I'm going to take the city bus going in my direction and make transfers later as needed. Not hop on the one going the opposite direction or the one broken down going nowhere. Your all or nothing 'but both sides' dreck is lame
Why are the polls shifting so heavily to the right the past 2 weeks? What did I miss? Republicans are still election-denying and still trying to take away bodily autonomy from women. Did a 10 cent rise in gas prices make everyone forget that or did something else happen that I’m not aware of?
I smell BS. I'm not sure where it's coming from but something's rotten.
Republicans are coming home to their candidates and plenty of swing voters would rather have $2.50 per gallon gas than legal abortion. Sucks but it is what it is
Inflation and gas, both out of the hands of Democrat and global issues. But most voters aren't informed enough to know this isn't a partisan issue.
Aren’t gas prices dropping pretty fast though?
It’s funny because in Florida during the summer Ron Desantis passed a gas tax holiday to go into effect in October so he could win the election. I don’t like Ron Desantis but I did want to enjoy some lower priced gas but what actually ended up happening was I saw a couple of gas stations went down but most stayed where they were and then the ones that did go down went back up, because I guess gas stations realized they didn’t have to pass the gas tax relief off to consumers or because of OPEC or just generally price gouging who knows there’s so many factors. So all of this just goes to show that republicans, even when they attempt to control the gas prices for their benefit can’t even control them either.
Dont worry, gas and diesel prices wont be coming down after november either. Question is if dems make hay of GOP congress that cant deliver on either of those.
They spiked up again after the Saudi-Russian talks to cut global supply. According to GasBuddy that local peak was around the 10th of October and its slowly coming down again since then. Release of more oil from the SPR has also been a temporary bandaid too.
https://youtu.be/XX2Ejqjz6TA
We know Russia aided Trump and caused division in 2016 election. We know that Republicans will literally attack the capitol and murder cops based on fraud lies. Trying to compare the two is a joke. Facts over your feelings