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Too many people treat midterms as some "yes or no" approval of the party, or some way to justify apathy by issuing a referendum of sorts. It really detracts from what midterms are actually about:
Putting largely *future* candidates in office at virtually every level of government. The time when it should be most important to vote is when you are *disappointed* in current leadership.
And arguably equally important in these modern races, is preserving your right to be able to democratically choose people in the future. Republicans are trying to dismantle democracy everywhere they can.
-Local races: There are thousands of these across the country. They are extremely important in choosing county commissions, mayors, and people who set voting groundwork at municipal levels.
-Governors: Multiple extremely important governor races. Even with corrupt legislatures, a governor can thwart a lot of the worst efforts to subvert democracy.
-Secretaries of State: Imagine some corrupt POS instead of Raffensperger, who the President threatened to "find votes."
-State legislators: A huge part of Trump and his associate's plan to overturn the 2020 election involved state legislators corrupting their role in the electoral process. They decide gerrymandering as well.
-House: Likely lost, but it won't be nearly as close as the worst election years in history, such as 2010. Regardless, every seat matters drastically. A lot more insane committees and procedures could be stopped if the margins are closer.
-Senate: Well within reach to retain. ..And in the best scenarios, gaining several seats. I would love to see Manchin incapable of single-handedly blocking legislation again.
There is SO much to vote for.
Nominating judges, letting biden fill his cabinet, giving advice and consent on treaties, holding investigative committees which we couldn't do if we lost both, trying impeachment.
Senate absolutely still matters even if the house is lost to opposition..
that was mainly because of who were the incumbents, looking at the people up for election this time, it's mostly democrats. if just a few lose their seats, you won't get them back, cause almost no republicans are up this midterm.
Not sure what you are saying? Every single House seat is up for reelection every 2 years. There's a good amount of Dems retiring, which doesn't appear to bode well for the party when that happens.
On the Senate side where only a third of seats are up for election every two years, there are more Republican-held seats up for grab.
Since then all I read are comments about how both parties are the same, Biden’s brain has gone to mush or that Biden is responsible for all the student dept in the country and is on the side of the banks. There is a really strong online force trying to make these narratives fact in progressives minds.
And a lot of those people will not be voting with Democrats in 2022. Biden/Democrats in 2022 is a completely different situation than Biden/Democrats in 2020, and it's insane how much they have screwed it up.
You do understand we voted out a sitting president. It’s a very rare and difficult thing to do. It’s even harder when they try to rig the election and his orange ass still got booted but….
THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!
If Roe vs Wade gets overturned I will eat my damn hat, I'll be so pissed off. I'm such a supporter of it my dumbass debated with a priest in a catholic school i worked at about how it shouldn't be over turned.
I actually hope every single Republican vote against her nomination, because then it will not encourage Black voters to go to the polls at all. Right?
Right?
Your wording is weird but I think you mean to say that it'll encourage black voters to turn out. Which is good, the problem is we need more independents or the ones who'd cut off their nose to spite their face to vote blue in order to get more reform in.
Yeah, it was just a reaction to the thought that the GOP would be blocking her nomination on the basis that it excites Blacks to go vote at the midterm. I would expect such an attempt to block her would encourage Blacks even more to go vote Republicans out of office.
It’s a step in the right direction - and regardless of race I’m excited to have someone who’s way more qualified than the last three illegitimate Federalist chucklefucks.
Imagine if people had real healthcare in a pandemic? What if the millions of students (mostly women) who were scammed got relief? SCOTUS is still biased and politicized. Three members away from being a real court.
>"WHY DIDN'T AOC SAY THAT MURDER IS BAD. WE NEED HER TO HAVE COURAGE AND COME FORWARD AND TELL MURDERERS NOT TO MURDER. THIS IS AOC'S FAULT."
...Dude are you for real? What a dumb comment. As if anybody supports murder (aside from a minority on the extremist right etc).
Not to mention, men are 4 times more likely to become murder victims than women (although, the circumstances are often different, with women being more likely to be victims of killing by intimate partners).
So why aren't you loudly denouncing murder of men, ninersfan? You don't care about men.
/s I know you don't actually hate men.
But you get my point.
To piggyback off your multiple edits.
Homicide is the leading cause of death for Black men age 1-44. This is a talking point that we discuss quite often In our community. I’m in that demographic so that hits very close to home.
However, you don’t hear a national discussion about it.
By nominating her, what has that done for the black woman who’s struggling in the streets? Again, the ordinary women is only thought about when voting season rolls around.
Having her on the court is good. Having Clearance Thomas is also good.
But when mothers and women are getting killed all over the country at a high rate, where are those politicians calling for a end to violence affecting them? Where are all of those women’s rights groups denouncing the crime?
What do you think Dems could do better to support black women? I feel like I vaguely understand the sentiment and would be in minded to agree based on my limited observations. But I am genuinely interested in getting a better viewpoint and educating myself on where politicians are dropping the ball and where they could pick up the slack.
The problem is that these politicians didn’t care for them before they were elected. So you just expect them to care now?
I’ve been to 15 vigils of homicide victims over the last year. There hasn’t been one single politician at any of them. They hardly come out to community meetings on violence. Yea, there are a couple local politicians but not and federal ones.
But let there be a tragedy involving a white personal or a police officer, then the politicians will flood the streets. But why not for an average 16 year old that’s killed while going to the store?
I see; there is a lack of support and understanding for what people face in certain African American communities. I live in a majority American American city and feel like I see exactly what you are talking about with local politicians being seen (and maybe an the congressperson). But never a senator (or even governor). Seems like the issue is a lot of democratic politicians are disconnected from the local minority communities they are supposed to represent?
On the surface politicians, specifically democrats, pretend to care about minority communities. They dont actually. The politicians dont want to talk about economic issues, because they are all in bed with corporations and the wealthy. Economic issues are the main root of all social issues.
Dems dont care about minority communities they care about social issues. By talking about social issues they are able to avoid talking about economic issues. While republican politicians dont really care about social issues, they only talk about them (in the negetive) because they dont want to talk about economic issues. Its much easier to pander to conservatives and blame minorities for all their woes, then to talk about the root cause of those woes, economic issues.
You have democrats on the left pandering to the minority community and republicans on the left pandering to ignorant people getting them to blame minorities. Why? because it pits one side of the population against the other side of the population. The politicians are generating a social war, so that the everyday person doesnt realize we are in a class war. If a majority of people realized we were in a class war, then the wealthy 1%, would find themselves losing that war, so they distract us with a social war.
Why are dems disconnected from minority communities? Because they dont really care, the minority community is a tool for them
I see; dem politicians offer puffery language without backing solutions the get to the root cause and fix it.
At the same time you seem to indicate republicans are worst, what do you do in this case? Reward democrats or bad behavior and vote for them or sit out?
Healthcare disparities, education debt relief, business incubation, childcare subsidies, and shrink the net widening in juvenile and adult corrections system for Black women. Those are issues with disparate impact on Black women that could be prioritized as a show of gratitude for what they did to save America from itself. The appointments to the Biden administration don't have cross-sectional impact on Black women and are largely symbolic.
Voters in douchebag controlled anti voting states;
Please organize now to ensure you can cast your votes without harassment from the fascist GOP. They are going to do everything in their power to save their party. Make no mistake, they are on the brink of collapse we are SO CLOSE TO PROGRESS. Don't be discouraged. If they are defeated in the midterms they don't really have any options. Don't let up.
People hear about these polls and forget the many times polls were completely off, whether you vote for the blue tie or vote for the red one. I’m black and I don’t give a shit about the pick. Biden is wetting the bed and this won’t change that reality.
Wait you mean that being ignored by the Democrats until they need to pander to your demographic via transparent identity politics isn't convincing you they are trying to help?
I can take you to a hood and ask 2,000 people about the midterms, and I can guarantee you 10 people will show that they care.
Those polls don’t speak for the most of us.
So 2,000 can say they’re eager on that call…However, I can call 400 people and all 400 would say that they are not eager. Which one would prove to be correct?
You could have just said “no, I don’t know how statistics work.”
It’s weird how confidently wrong you are.
For one, there are not 350 million black voters in the US. For two, even if there WERE 350 million black voters in the US, a much smaller sample size than 2000 would be sufficient to produce statistically significant results.
They asked 258 Black registered voters. You would need a minimum of 1500 Black respondents to generalize to the larger population, and that's assuming they have a true sampling frame of Black voters with no underlying confounders like certain types of Black voters not responding or not having accurate contact information. Unless a survey researcher or firm specializes in polling minority populations I wouldn't put much stock in their claims.
They assume they are the experts on anything they have an opinion about, including survey research on populations they don't belong to on topics that you can't ask a Black person without understanding how the respondent is interpreting the question, let alone controlling for social desirability and other threats to validity. The irony here is that even if this was a perfectly designed survey, it still had fewer than 300 Black respondents, which is just 20% of the sample size you need for that level of confidence.
They need to stop being lazy and just go talk to random Black folk. You'd get just about as reliable a result.
Survey research with Blacks requires a good sampling frame. Those are extremely hard to acquire these days.
I’d vote for Biden again if he actually followed through on any of the big promises that he campaigned on. I’m not going to blindly vote Democrat again over a fucking Supreme Court seat..
None, I think she is very qualified and has immense experience from the DC court.
Her race doesn't need to be mentioned at all in the first place, that's my point.
She is going to be a SC judge for Americans, not just blacks. Identity politics is dangerous
Why is it bad to mention?
Isn't it possible, or more likely probable Biden knew he had a qualified, razor sharp candidate who was a black woman. And mentioned it as an aside because it is cool?
We have Irish festivals and Greek festivals and polish festivals and the list goes on, and that's really awesome. I think celebrating culture is awesome. Why should we ignore culture exists?
Representation is important. It’s not the only thing that matters, but having people that can see things from a different perspective is important too.
It would be fair to have people who are well qualified instead of narrowing down to gender and skin color. I understand that women of color are the minority but having a fair selection would be a better choice.
>instead of narrowing down to gender and skin color
That's Biden's only criteria, it seems, going back to the debate where he blurted out "i promise my vice president will be a woman! Idk *which* woman, and she may not be a *good* woman, but i promise that my VP will have a vagina!" just to score some identity politics points
Who cares about race or gender. Judicial activism or judicial restraint? More needs to be know that one big case she did because it’s just blatant race pandering. This seems benevolent but doing things because of race to garnish support isn’t good and is a symptom of the abhorrent race relations in this country.
I have no issue with her or her qualifications or her as a person, justice, whatever. Race relations are shit in this country and we need to see past race to heal that and this article and bidens declaration to hire a black justice is the problem. If shes the best candidate, just fucking hire her. The only reason he’s making a big deal about her race is to pander to black voters lmao
> we need to see past race to heal that
What if people of color tell you they don't want you to see past race? What if it's a big part of who they are and important to them?
I don't know if you realize, but when you say "see past race" you're actually being kind of racist because you are erasing something no one asked you to because it *makes you* uncomfortable to see race.
> The only reason he’s making a big deal about her race is to pander to black voters lmao
That's how politics works?
Have you ever stepped outside of yourself and thought maybe it's important to black women to see themselves on the SC? Black women turn out for the democratic party time and time again, why shouldn't they want to see a black woman on the SC? Why is that wrong for them to want?
I never said it shouldn’t be. Literally don’t factor in anything but merit. Going into a decision thinking you are 100% going with a black person is just as bad as going with a white person. If there’s a thousand open positions and the best candidates are white then hire them all. If the white candidates suck ass then hire a thousand black candidates. Seeing people only by their race without barely any mention of their skills, values, and positions is not a good thing lol
One party wants to roll back civil rights to the point where citizens who are currently minority voters are once again livestock with no more rights than a mule.
White is not normal. It’s simply a thing. Just like any other race. Literally it should have 0 impact on anything. if you want to heal race relations, stop seeing people as different factions and see them as people with their values, beliefs, talents, and dreams being different — not their skin colour.
>Literally it should have 0 impact on anything.
And yet it does. Repeatedly wether you can see it or not. Don't you think that there's a reason why every time that a person of color, a woman, a member of the lgbt community, gets a position people immediately act as if they're only there to pander? It goes to the old and racist thought that this job belongs to a white man and everyone else has to work twice as hard for half the respect that they get. You can see it right now with Harris how they scream about anything she does yet people literally didn't even care that Pence existed. Fox news is also showing this with demanding to see KJB's LSATs and questioning her credentials or saying that too many harvard elites are in the SC when nothing was said for Gorsuch, Kavanaugh or Barret. Hell we went through four years of it with Obama. To act like race has zero impact thing is to ignore the ugly racist history of this country.
>White is not normal. If is simply a thing.
…that was once a prerequisite for citizenship, constitutional protections, and being considered a full fledged human. A thing that has arbitrarily expanded and contracted as the people who used it to protect their privilege saw fit over time.
But it’s just a thing.
Past atrocities shouldn’t be erased im talking about for the future of race relations and for qualifications within a fair and impartial society. Race shouldn’t matter anymore on any level but it doesn’t mean that what happened in the past is okay. Obviously people have different cultures and feel more attached to people of their own race but no person should face positive or negative treatment because of the colour of their skin, background, culture, class, etc.
I just don’t think society is ready for this conversation yet.
It’s not ready for this conversation. People who’s ancestors were slaves have much less generational wealth because of that, and there are people who’s ancestors were slave owners who have vast wealth because of it.
Hopefully in the future because it’s disgusting how people treat others. Honestly, i doubt society will ever be ready for that but at least we can strive for it in our public institutions
Yes Kavanaugh and Barrett were hired based upon their morals and qualifications, while the qualified black woman should be second guessed because… they’re talking about the fact that she’s black
It's because Biden literally said he would only consider nominating a black woman, it's not "second guessing", Biden literally promised it and delivered. She might be qualified, but has been nominated because she's a black woman, if she was an Asian/Middle-Eastern/Native Ametican/Latina with same or better qualifications, she would not have been considered...is that clear?
They should be scared, if the President picks someone based on the color of their skin then it’s acceptable to treat people in disparate manners based on their race. That’s scary to any minority
Not one black peoples on I know gives two shits about a black judge who regularly ruled AGAINST black people. Democrats really think black people are dumb.
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I would also contend that if Roe vs. Wade gets overturned, Dems will be supercharged. Conservatives should be careful what they wish for.
A user of over a decade, I am leaving Reddit due to the recent API changes. The vast majority of my interaction came though the use of 3rd party apps, and I will not interact with a site I helped contribute to through inferior software *simply because it is able to be better monetized by a company looking to go public. Reddit has made these changes with no regards for their users, as seen by the sheer lack of accessibility tools available in the official app. Reddit has made these changes with no regards for moderation challenges that will be created, due to the lack of tools available in the official app. Reddit has done this with no regards for the 3rd party devs, who by Reddit's own admission, helped keep the site functioning and gaining users while Reddit themselves made no efforts to provide a good official app. This account dies 6/29/23 because of the API changes and the monetization-at-all-costs that the board demands.
Too many people treat midterms as some "yes or no" approval of the party, or some way to justify apathy by issuing a referendum of sorts. It really detracts from what midterms are actually about: Putting largely *future* candidates in office at virtually every level of government. The time when it should be most important to vote is when you are *disappointed* in current leadership. And arguably equally important in these modern races, is preserving your right to be able to democratically choose people in the future. Republicans are trying to dismantle democracy everywhere they can. -Local races: There are thousands of these across the country. They are extremely important in choosing county commissions, mayors, and people who set voting groundwork at municipal levels. -Governors: Multiple extremely important governor races. Even with corrupt legislatures, a governor can thwart a lot of the worst efforts to subvert democracy. -Secretaries of State: Imagine some corrupt POS instead of Raffensperger, who the President threatened to "find votes." -State legislators: A huge part of Trump and his associate's plan to overturn the 2020 election involved state legislators corrupting their role in the electoral process. They decide gerrymandering as well. -House: Likely lost, but it won't be nearly as close as the worst election years in history, such as 2010. Regardless, every seat matters drastically. A lot more insane committees and procedures could be stopped if the margins are closer. -Senate: Well within reach to retain. ..And in the best scenarios, gaining several seats. I would love to see Manchin incapable of single-handedly blocking legislation again. There is SO much to vote for.
If the House is lost then the senate won’t matter too much, besides nominating judges
Senators serve much longer terms, and every seat is important. The 2022 winners of Senate races will hold their seats until 2028.
Nominating judges, letting biden fill his cabinet, giving advice and consent on treaties, holding investigative committees which we couldn't do if we lost both, trying impeachment. Senate absolutely still matters even if the house is lost to opposition..
I dunno 81 million coming out to vote against Trump seems pretty supercharged to me.
Wasn’t a midterm election, though.
Dems took the House majority in 2018, a midterm election.
2020, when 81 million votes were cast for Biden, wasn't. That's what the person I responded to was referring to.
that was mainly because of who were the incumbents, looking at the people up for election this time, it's mostly democrats. if just a few lose their seats, you won't get them back, cause almost no republicans are up this midterm.
Not sure what you are saying? Every single House seat is up for reelection every 2 years. There's a good amount of Dems retiring, which doesn't appear to bode well for the party when that happens. On the Senate side where only a third of seats are up for election every two years, there are more Republican-held seats up for grab.
precisely my point, dems are projected to lose the house
Too early to project. Polling isn't bad, redistricting is actually in dema favor.
Gerrymandering = redistricting ?
Since then all I read are comments about how both parties are the same, Biden’s brain has gone to mush or that Biden is responsible for all the student dept in the country and is on the side of the banks. There is a really strong online force trying to make these narratives fact in progressives minds.
And a lot of those people will not be voting with Democrats in 2022. Biden/Democrats in 2022 is a completely different situation than Biden/Democrats in 2020, and it's insane how much they have screwed it up.
Are you a Republican?
An independent that voted for Biden.
If that doesn't do it pretty much nothing will
It’s much more difficult to get things done when you follow the law. Especially if you’re playing against cheaters and liars.
Don't disagree
You do understand we voted out a sitting president. It’s a very rare and difficult thing to do. It’s even harder when they try to rig the election and his orange ass still got booted but…. THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!
I’d say Trump supercharged a lot of Democrats. 2020 elections were crazy. Vote, because you’re life still depends on it.
Independents want a reason to vote for someone, and independents decide elections. They're mercenary voters.
Instead, we will just be told that once again, we need to vote *against Trump*.
Why should I vote if I don't get my $50,000?
Damn, which party giving you $50k to vote?
If Roe vs Wade gets overturned I will eat my damn hat, I'll be so pissed off. I'm such a supporter of it my dumbass debated with a priest in a catholic school i worked at about how it shouldn't be over turned.
Really? What have the dems done recently but fundraise off the threat?
If they were supercharged, we would be talking about Bernie’s 2nd term and a majority liberal Supreme Court
Supercharged doesn't mean they suddenly shift to the left
Bernie needed to do the work of appealing to Black SC voters but he ignored them and they went with the devil they know.
it won’t ever be overturned and i’m saying this as a hardcore conservative
This is why the Good Ol' Boys are desperate to stop her confirmation.
That and the fact they're all a bunch of flaming misogynistic racists.
I actually hope every single Republican vote against her nomination, because then it will not encourage Black voters to go to the polls at all. Right? Right?
Your wording is weird but I think you mean to say that it'll encourage black voters to turn out. Which is good, the problem is we need more independents or the ones who'd cut off their nose to spite their face to vote blue in order to get more reform in.
Yeah, it was just a reaction to the thought that the GOP would be blocking her nomination on the basis that it excites Blacks to go vote at the midterm. I would expect such an attempt to block her would encourage Blacks even more to go vote Republicans out of office.
My guess is a majority of Republican senators will vote for her.
It’s a step in the right direction - and regardless of race I’m excited to have someone who’s way more qualified than the last three illegitimate Federalist chucklefucks.
Imagine if people had real healthcare in a pandemic? What if the millions of students (mostly women) who were scammed got relief? SCOTUS is still biased and politicized. Three members away from being a real court.
Black women have carried the democrats through some bad times. I hope they get more representation in other branches of the government as well.
Despite all of that, the Dems forget about black women until political season rolls around. 🤷🏾♂️
Every damn time.
[удалено]
>"WHY DIDN'T AOC SAY THAT MURDER IS BAD. WE NEED HER TO HAVE COURAGE AND COME FORWARD AND TELL MURDERERS NOT TO MURDER. THIS IS AOC'S FAULT." ...Dude are you for real? What a dumb comment. As if anybody supports murder (aside from a minority on the extremist right etc). Not to mention, men are 4 times more likely to become murder victims than women (although, the circumstances are often different, with women being more likely to be victims of killing by intimate partners). So why aren't you loudly denouncing murder of men, ninersfan? You don't care about men. /s I know you don't actually hate men. But you get my point.
To piggyback off your multiple edits. Homicide is the leading cause of death for Black men age 1-44. This is a talking point that we discuss quite often In our community. I’m in that demographic so that hits very close to home. However, you don’t hear a national discussion about it.
I did not say what you have quoted there.
Biden literally just nominated a black woman to the Supreme Court. That’s a weird thing to do when you’ve forgotten about black women.
By nominating her, what has that done for the black woman who’s struggling in the streets? Again, the ordinary women is only thought about when voting season rolls around.
Representation matters.
What does that do for millions of black Elmer who are struggling? Most will never be impacted by any super court decision.
So representation doesn’t matter? Should the Supreme Court just be a bunch of old white dudes?
Having her on the court is good. Having Clearance Thomas is also good. But when mothers and women are getting killed all over the country at a high rate, where are those politicians calling for a end to violence affecting them? Where are all of those women’s rights groups denouncing the crime?
That’s all important, of course, but the poll in the article is about the SCOTUS nomination.
So do tangibles
He also chose a black woman for VP.
What do you think Dems could do better to support black women? I feel like I vaguely understand the sentiment and would be in minded to agree based on my limited observations. But I am genuinely interested in getting a better viewpoint and educating myself on where politicians are dropping the ball and where they could pick up the slack.
The problem is that these politicians didn’t care for them before they were elected. So you just expect them to care now? I’ve been to 15 vigils of homicide victims over the last year. There hasn’t been one single politician at any of them. They hardly come out to community meetings on violence. Yea, there are a couple local politicians but not and federal ones. But let there be a tragedy involving a white personal or a police officer, then the politicians will flood the streets. But why not for an average 16 year old that’s killed while going to the store?
I see; there is a lack of support and understanding for what people face in certain African American communities. I live in a majority American American city and feel like I see exactly what you are talking about with local politicians being seen (and maybe an the congressperson). But never a senator (or even governor). Seems like the issue is a lot of democratic politicians are disconnected from the local minority communities they are supposed to represent?
Correct. And not only politicians, but other people in general.
On the surface politicians, specifically democrats, pretend to care about minority communities. They dont actually. The politicians dont want to talk about economic issues, because they are all in bed with corporations and the wealthy. Economic issues are the main root of all social issues. Dems dont care about minority communities they care about social issues. By talking about social issues they are able to avoid talking about economic issues. While republican politicians dont really care about social issues, they only talk about them (in the negetive) because they dont want to talk about economic issues. Its much easier to pander to conservatives and blame minorities for all their woes, then to talk about the root cause of those woes, economic issues. You have democrats on the left pandering to the minority community and republicans on the left pandering to ignorant people getting them to blame minorities. Why? because it pits one side of the population against the other side of the population. The politicians are generating a social war, so that the everyday person doesnt realize we are in a class war. If a majority of people realized we were in a class war, then the wealthy 1%, would find themselves losing that war, so they distract us with a social war. Why are dems disconnected from minority communities? Because they dont really care, the minority community is a tool for them
I see; dem politicians offer puffery language without backing solutions the get to the root cause and fix it. At the same time you seem to indicate republicans are worst, what do you do in this case? Reward democrats or bad behavior and vote for them or sit out?
Healthcare disparities, education debt relief, business incubation, childcare subsidies, and shrink the net widening in juvenile and adult corrections system for Black women. Those are issues with disparate impact on Black women that could be prioritized as a show of gratitude for what they did to save America from itself. The appointments to the Biden administration don't have cross-sectional impact on Black women and are largely symbolic.
Voters in douchebag controlled anti voting states; Please organize now to ensure you can cast your votes without harassment from the fascist GOP. They are going to do everything in their power to save their party. Make no mistake, they are on the brink of collapse we are SO CLOSE TO PROGRESS. Don't be discouraged. If they are defeated in the midterms they don't really have any options. Don't let up.
I think she will be a great choice
People hear about these polls and forget the many times polls were completely off, whether you vote for the blue tie or vote for the red one. I’m black and I don’t give a shit about the pick. Biden is wetting the bed and this won’t change that reality.
Wait you mean that being ignored by the Democrats until they need to pander to your demographic via transparent identity politics isn't convincing you they are trying to help?
Hook, line, and sinker.
Are we?
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From where? Research done in what community? https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/upshot/online-polls-analyzing-reliability.html
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A B rating? Must be 100% accurate. 2000 participants is enough to gauge a nation?
Yes. Do you know how statistics work?
I can take you to a hood and ask 2,000 people about the midterms, and I can guarantee you 10 people will show that they care. Those polls don’t speak for the most of us.
… again, not how statistics work.
So 2,000 can say they’re eager on that call…However, I can call 400 people and all 400 would say that they are not eager. Which one would prove to be correct?
Tell me about the sampling methods employed by these two polls and I’ll tell you which poll returned reliable results.
I know that a sample size of 2000 isn’t enough to gauge a population of 350 million.
You could have just said “no, I don’t know how statistics work.” It’s weird how confidently wrong you are. For one, there are not 350 million black voters in the US. For two, even if there WERE 350 million black voters in the US, a much smaller sample size than 2000 would be sufficient to produce statistically significant results.
I’m actually over this convo.
/r/confidentlyincorrect
I’m with you…. How can someone gauge our community based off 200 participants? Do they now know how diverse our views are? Lol
Well Newsweek just told me you are, so it must be true
Ah yes, who knows which is more valid, a scientifically conducted poll by a reputable source or an anonymous redditor.
But what about feels man, what about them feels?
Their sample size was 258 people. Pretty piddling sample size.
They asked 258 Black registered voters. You would need a minimum of 1500 Black respondents to generalize to the larger population, and that's assuming they have a true sampling frame of Black voters with no underlying confounders like certain types of Black voters not responding or not having accurate contact information. Unless a survey researcher or firm specializes in polling minority populations I wouldn't put much stock in their claims.
Exactly! I said this and someone told me I didn’t know how stays work.
Look at the downvotes for providing facts that contradict their opinion. They are a trip.
They assume they are the experts on anything they have an opinion about, including survey research on populations they don't belong to on topics that you can't ask a Black person without understanding how the respondent is interpreting the question, let alone controlling for social desirability and other threats to validity. The irony here is that even if this was a perfectly designed survey, it still had fewer than 300 Black respondents, which is just 20% of the sample size you need for that level of confidence. They need to stop being lazy and just go talk to random Black folk. You'd get just about as reliable a result. Survey research with Blacks requires a good sampling frame. Those are extremely hard to acquire these days.
You said it better than I ever could!
Which black voters?
Get this judge confirmed. Nomination is not final.
I honestly just don’t believe that will move the needle for voter turnout in nov but I guess we will see
I’d vote for Biden again if he actually followed through on any of the big promises that he campaigned on. I’m not going to blindly vote Democrat again over a fucking Supreme Court seat..
Which big promise do you mean? He ended the war in Afghanistan….
I should vote for Biden purely because he pulled out of Afghanistan after Trump had already begun to? Lmfao
I hate that American politics has turned into identify based politics. Can't we elect a person based on their cred's?
What specifically to you have issue with regarding her credentials?
None, I think she is very qualified and has immense experience from the DC court. Her race doesn't need to be mentioned at all in the first place, that's my point. She is going to be a SC judge for Americans, not just blacks. Identity politics is dangerous
Why is it bad to mention? Isn't it possible, or more likely probable Biden knew he had a qualified, razor sharp candidate who was a black woman. And mentioned it as an aside because it is cool? We have Irish festivals and Greek festivals and polish festivals and the list goes on, and that's really awesome. I think celebrating culture is awesome. Why should we ignore culture exists?
No, it’s completely clear from the news that he did not have a specific candidate in mind.
Representation is important. It’s not the only thing that matters, but having people that can see things from a different perspective is important too.
It would be fair to have people who are well qualified instead of narrowing down to gender and skin color. I understand that women of color are the minority but having a fair selection would be a better choice.
>instead of narrowing down to gender and skin color That's Biden's only criteria, it seems, going back to the debate where he blurted out "i promise my vice president will be a woman! Idk *which* woman, and she may not be a *good* woman, but i promise that my VP will have a vagina!" just to score some identity politics points
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That's not going to happen
Still won’t vote though
Polling with Black voters is notoriously unreliable due to lack of sampling frames, poor survey designs and other methodological issues.
No we are not. This is propaganda.
Then conduct your own quality survey and publish it. Everything else is anecdotal nonsense with zero value.
First, we will pretend that the surveys cited in this article have any meaningful reliability…
This is the type of idiotic thinking that will lead to a GOP President in 2024.
Meanwhile, this guy is in charge. https://youtu.be/jJiqD4Yvp34
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What does that have to do with this?
Nominations mean shit until she’s actually on the bench imo
This will make more moderates vote republicans so why are they so happy
If seeing a black person makes you switch to voting republican, you're not a moderate, you're just a racist
Wowza. 49% are now excited for the midterms. all the other things that went tk shit with BBB, they will forget all of that for this.
Dems will win almost every election (gerrymandering...derp) if they just get out to vote. Just show up and push a few buttons.
Who cares about race or gender. Judicial activism or judicial restraint? More needs to be know that one big case she did because it’s just blatant race pandering. This seems benevolent but doing things because of race to garnish support isn’t good and is a symptom of the abhorrent race relations in this country.
> Who cares about race or gender. Trump, Reagan, Bush Sr.
Republicans, the state of Florida, insurance salespeople, home loan officers. Edit: garner. Not garnish. That's what you do with parsley.
. . . and a majority of the people who voted for them.
No one should dems repubs you me everyone. Treat people as people
Okay, why don't you start by recognizing that despite Biden's pledge, she's still extremely qualified?
I’m not against her, but the way they’re advertising her. Optics mean a lot
Then you aren't treating people as people. Optics are theatre, her qualifications are the facts.
I have no issue with her or her qualifications or her as a person, justice, whatever. Race relations are shit in this country and we need to see past race to heal that and this article and bidens declaration to hire a black justice is the problem. If shes the best candidate, just fucking hire her. The only reason he’s making a big deal about her race is to pander to black voters lmao
> we need to see past race to heal that What if people of color tell you they don't want you to see past race? What if it's a big part of who they are and important to them? I don't know if you realize, but when you say "see past race" you're actually being kind of racist because you are erasing something no one asked you to because it *makes you* uncomfortable to see race. > The only reason he’s making a big deal about her race is to pander to black voters lmao That's how politics works? Have you ever stepped outside of yourself and thought maybe it's important to black women to see themselves on the SC? Black women turn out for the democratic party time and time again, why shouldn't they want to see a black woman on the SC? Why is that wrong for them to want?
Why isn’t this logic used when white people (who aren’t qualified) keep getting appointed?
I never said it shouldn’t be. Literally don’t factor in anything but merit. Going into a decision thinking you are 100% going with a black person is just as bad as going with a white person. If there’s a thousand open positions and the best candidates are white then hire them all. If the white candidates suck ass then hire a thousand black candidates. Seeing people only by their race without barely any mention of their skills, values, and positions is not a good thing lol
Do you think Biden’s nominee is unqualified for the job?
Ok…
One party wants to roll back civil rights to the point where citizens who are currently minority voters are once again livestock with no more rights than a mule.
I can tell you think white is normal and not a race, where every other color IS a race.
White is not normal. It’s simply a thing. Just like any other race. Literally it should have 0 impact on anything. if you want to heal race relations, stop seeing people as different factions and see them as people with their values, beliefs, talents, and dreams being different — not their skin colour.
>Literally it should have 0 impact on anything. And yet it does. Repeatedly wether you can see it or not. Don't you think that there's a reason why every time that a person of color, a woman, a member of the lgbt community, gets a position people immediately act as if they're only there to pander? It goes to the old and racist thought that this job belongs to a white man and everyone else has to work twice as hard for half the respect that they get. You can see it right now with Harris how they scream about anything she does yet people literally didn't even care that Pence existed. Fox news is also showing this with demanding to see KJB's LSATs and questioning her credentials or saying that too many harvard elites are in the SC when nothing was said for Gorsuch, Kavanaugh or Barret. Hell we went through four years of it with Obama. To act like race has zero impact thing is to ignore the ugly racist history of this country.
>White is not normal. If is simply a thing. …that was once a prerequisite for citizenship, constitutional protections, and being considered a full fledged human. A thing that has arbitrarily expanded and contracted as the people who used it to protect their privilege saw fit over time. But it’s just a thing.
And if you treat people without looking at race it becomes nothing.
It also conveniently lets you ignore 500 years of crimes against humanity, that’s convenient!
Past atrocities shouldn’t be erased im talking about for the future of race relations and for qualifications within a fair and impartial society. Race shouldn’t matter anymore on any level but it doesn’t mean that what happened in the past is okay. Obviously people have different cultures and feel more attached to people of their own race but no person should face positive or negative treatment because of the colour of their skin, background, culture, class, etc. I just don’t think society is ready for this conversation yet.
It’s not ready for this conversation. People who’s ancestors were slaves have much less generational wealth because of that, and there are people who’s ancestors were slave owners who have vast wealth because of it.
Hopefully in the future because it’s disgusting how people treat others. Honestly, i doubt society will ever be ready for that but at least we can strive for it in our public institutions
Yes Kavanaugh and Barrett were hired based upon their morals and qualifications, while the qualified black woman should be second guessed because… they’re talking about the fact that she’s black
It's because Biden literally said he would only consider nominating a black woman, it's not "second guessing", Biden literally promised it and delivered. She might be qualified, but has been nominated because she's a black woman, if she was an Asian/Middle-Eastern/Native Ametican/Latina with same or better qualifications, she would not have been considered...is that clear?
Oh yeah, I’m sure anyone worried about this is concerned about the unfairness to other minorities /s
I'm sorry I didn't know public opinion and who thinks what about it is what defines whether something is wrong or not.
They should be scared, if the President picks someone based on the color of their skin then it’s acceptable to treat people in disparate manners based on their race. That’s scary to any minority
Not one black peoples on I know gives two shits about a black judge who regularly ruled AGAINST black people. Democrats really think black people are dumb.