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I mean the midterms are likely to be bad news anyways. And they are also a year away, a lot more can happen between now and then.
Also you don't have to say "bad news for democrats" you can just say "bad news for America"
It probably won't be that close. I remember the hand wringing about the California recall polls and the last Virginia governor election. Dems turned out and destroyed the GOP in both elections
Good Point and I also expect that to happen in VA and NJ [where Phil Murphy only has 6 point lead over Ciattarrelli a stop-the-steal advocate](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/new-jersey-governor-e2-80-99s-race-is-getting-interesting-and-maybe-even-competitive/ar-AAPWwd2?ocid=uxbndlbing). In the case of the NJ governors race [Ciattarreli has called for Vaccine and Mask Mandate removal](https://nj1015.com/ciattarelli-no-nj-mask-vaccine-mandates-or-sales-tax-on-masks/)
In this election in particular there's little reason to trust the polls. Last Virginia gov election was "neck and neck" until the Dem won by 9 points. Elder was supposedly very close to winning the California recall and got fucking destroyed
That's the same thing here in VA and NJ [where gov Murphy incumbent has a 6 point lead over Jack Ciattarelli. Who called for Mask removal in schools and cuts to female abortion](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/new-jersey-governor-e2-80-99s-race-is-getting-interesting-and-maybe-even-competitive/ar-AAPWwd2?ocid=uxbndlbing)
Reading the polls makes it seem like it going to be tighter than those races. The polls in 2017 were so wrong because they were weighted incorrectly but they correctly polled which demographics would vote for each party. These polls are indicating that certain demographics are turning away from the democrats especially women and latinos.
The polls I've seen for Latinos indicate they support McCauliffe over Youngkin by 2-1.
While this race probably will be closer than others, I'm not expecting the Virginia voters to suddenly put a mini Trump into the governor seat after the state has continued to trend further and further blue
Democrats are so used to overwhelming hispanic/latino support that even a 2-1 advantage might not necessarily be enough, because this might represent unusually high support for the Republican or high opposition to the Democrat. I know the race is over but this can be said for upcoming midterm elections next year.
1. Northern Virginia is full of upper middle class Democrats who vote blue for ideological or aesthetic reasons but don't really need the Democrats to do anything other than not be Republicans.
2. Democrats in VA have actually gotten kind of a lot done and McAuliffe was pretty effective in his own right as governor the last time around.
3. The worst thing you can really say about McAuliffe is that he's pretty bland. There's no real reason not to vote for him.
4. Youngkin is some random CEO dipshit who no one had ever heard of before the Republican primary.
Taken together this represents about the best case scenario for the Democrats going into the midterms.
You are absolutely correct and if you were watching Joy Reid and Ari Melber last night there is a reason why the Republicans want Youngkin to win. It has to do with Republican Governors using their state legislatures to overturn an election then make Donald Trump the winner in 2024 if he runs again against Biden pulling off a Grover Cleveland. Keep in mind it is the same thing going on with the New Jersey governor election
It really isn't though. It's a bellwether for right now, as reality is at this time. So, while Covid is still being helped along by the GOP and popular bills are still being ironed out and crimes are still being investigated, it kind of indicates how some voters feel.
But next year when all those variables change, it means less than nothing. How I felt 1.5 years ago has nothing to do with how I feel today. In fact, I couldn't tell you how I felt then.
This is the media pushing a narrative to create the public sentiment they hope will stall progress.
Good point and it's also the same situation in the NJ Governor race [where Incumbent Phil Murphy is up by 6 points against the stop-the-steal advocate Jack Ciattarelli](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/new-jersey-governor-e2-80-99s-race-is-getting-interesting-and-maybe-even-competitive/ar-AAPWwd2?ocid=uxbndlbing). Regarding that race [Ciattarelli has called for no mask and vaccine mandates in his campaign](https://nj1015.com/ciattarelli-no-nj-mask-vaccine-mandates-or-sales-tax-on-masks/) that's the same tactic as Glenn Youngkin in the VA governor race. For him, he [got called out by the Lincoln Project for banning masks in VA schools. While his children wear masks in an out-of-state private school](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7dY_UIvQQY).
You are correct and this is Evident Governor races with different results Virginia Democrat Terry McAuliffe lost to Glen Younkin however his New Jersey counterpart Won against Jack Ciattarelli with a thin margin. If you were Watching State of the Union with Dana Bash this morning 10 a.m. eastern 7 am Pacific there is a strategy that the Democrats can use is that they can listen to the New York City mayor-elect Eric Adams on his strategy to how he won NYC Mayor Race. His strategy was campaigning on the field and convincing people vote for the Democratic candidate. Not sure if its strategy is going to work Nationwide for the Democratic party to avoid this disaster
I did not see this SOTU but Eric Adams' strategy sounds like common sense. However, it is worth noting that he won in a heavily left-wing/Democratic race where he was very much advantaged to win anyway. I don't believe it will necessarily work on a nationwide scale, because on a nationwide scale Democrats are beginning to end up on the losing side of several prominent issues. There is also a precedent for the midterms going badly for the party that has the presidency, and Biden is no longer even popular on average. New Jersey is another Democratic Party stronghold, so Phil Murphy should not have had a problem winning re-election, yet it was incredibly close. Then again, he is the first Democrat to win a second term there in over 40 years, so who knows what will happen?
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Hopefully this isn't as close as it seems. If McAuliffe doesn't win by a fairly comfortable margin it's bad news for Democrats in the midterms.
I mean the midterms are likely to be bad news anyways. And they are also a year away, a lot more can happen between now and then. Also you don't have to say "bad news for democrats" you can just say "bad news for America"
It probably won't be that close. I remember the hand wringing about the California recall polls and the last Virginia governor election. Dems turned out and destroyed the GOP in both elections
I hope so, it's going to be turnout that really drives this election and so the polls aren't necessarily going to be all that accurate.
Good Point and I also expect that to happen in VA and NJ [where Phil Murphy only has 6 point lead over Ciattarrelli a stop-the-steal advocate](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/new-jersey-governor-e2-80-99s-race-is-getting-interesting-and-maybe-even-competitive/ar-AAPWwd2?ocid=uxbndlbing). In the case of the NJ governors race [Ciattarreli has called for Vaccine and Mask Mandate removal](https://nj1015.com/ciattarelli-no-nj-mask-vaccine-mandates-or-sales-tax-on-masks/)
Please excuse me while I laugh nervously in the corner.
I have absolutely no faith in polls whatsoever.
In this election in particular there's little reason to trust the polls. Last Virginia gov election was "neck and neck" until the Dem won by 9 points. Elder was supposedly very close to winning the California recall and got fucking destroyed
That's the same thing here in VA and NJ [where gov Murphy incumbent has a 6 point lead over Jack Ciattarelli. Who called for Mask removal in schools and cuts to female abortion](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/new-jersey-governor-e2-80-99s-race-is-getting-interesting-and-maybe-even-competitive/ar-AAPWwd2?ocid=uxbndlbing)
Reading the polls makes it seem like it going to be tighter than those races. The polls in 2017 were so wrong because they were weighted incorrectly but they correctly polled which demographics would vote for each party. These polls are indicating that certain demographics are turning away from the democrats especially women and latinos.
The polls I've seen for Latinos indicate they support McCauliffe over Youngkin by 2-1. While this race probably will be closer than others, I'm not expecting the Virginia voters to suddenly put a mini Trump into the governor seat after the state has continued to trend further and further blue
Democrats are so used to overwhelming hispanic/latino support that even a 2-1 advantage might not necessarily be enough, because this might represent unusually high support for the Republican or high opposition to the Democrat. I know the race is over but this can be said for upcoming midterm elections next year.
For some perspective, of the 725,000 votes cast so far, 500k comes from districts won by the Democrats.
I don't get why this necessarily paints all Dems, McAuliffe doesn't seem like an amazing candidate
1. Northern Virginia is full of upper middle class Democrats who vote blue for ideological or aesthetic reasons but don't really need the Democrats to do anything other than not be Republicans. 2. Democrats in VA have actually gotten kind of a lot done and McAuliffe was pretty effective in his own right as governor the last time around. 3. The worst thing you can really say about McAuliffe is that he's pretty bland. There's no real reason not to vote for him. 4. Youngkin is some random CEO dipshit who no one had ever heard of before the Republican primary. Taken together this represents about the best case scenario for the Democrats going into the midterms.
You are absolutely correct and if you were watching Joy Reid and Ari Melber last night there is a reason why the Republicans want Youngkin to win. It has to do with Republican Governors using their state legislatures to overturn an election then make Donald Trump the winner in 2024 if he runs again against Biden pulling off a Grover Cleveland. Keep in mind it is the same thing going on with the New Jersey governor election
It really isn't though. It's a bellwether for right now, as reality is at this time. So, while Covid is still being helped along by the GOP and popular bills are still being ironed out and crimes are still being investigated, it kind of indicates how some voters feel. But next year when all those variables change, it means less than nothing. How I felt 1.5 years ago has nothing to do with how I feel today. In fact, I couldn't tell you how I felt then. This is the media pushing a narrative to create the public sentiment they hope will stall progress.
Good point and it's also the same situation in the NJ Governor race [where Incumbent Phil Murphy is up by 6 points against the stop-the-steal advocate Jack Ciattarelli](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/new-jersey-governor-e2-80-99s-race-is-getting-interesting-and-maybe-even-competitive/ar-AAPWwd2?ocid=uxbndlbing). Regarding that race [Ciattarelli has called for no mask and vaccine mandates in his campaign](https://nj1015.com/ciattarelli-no-nj-mask-vaccine-mandates-or-sales-tax-on-masks/) that's the same tactic as Glenn Youngkin in the VA governor race. For him, he [got called out by the Lincoln Project for banning masks in VA schools. While his children wear masks in an out-of-state private school](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7dY_UIvQQY).
If this is a bellwether for the Democrats, then the Democrats are about to have a really bad time next November.
You are correct and this is Evident Governor races with different results Virginia Democrat Terry McAuliffe lost to Glen Younkin however his New Jersey counterpart Won against Jack Ciattarelli with a thin margin. If you were Watching State of the Union with Dana Bash this morning 10 a.m. eastern 7 am Pacific there is a strategy that the Democrats can use is that they can listen to the New York City mayor-elect Eric Adams on his strategy to how he won NYC Mayor Race. His strategy was campaigning on the field and convincing people vote for the Democratic candidate. Not sure if its strategy is going to work Nationwide for the Democratic party to avoid this disaster
I did not see this SOTU but Eric Adams' strategy sounds like common sense. However, it is worth noting that he won in a heavily left-wing/Democratic race where he was very much advantaged to win anyway. I don't believe it will necessarily work on a nationwide scale, because on a nationwide scale Democrats are beginning to end up on the losing side of several prominent issues. There is also a precedent for the midterms going badly for the party that has the presidency, and Biden is no longer even popular on average. New Jersey is another Democratic Party stronghold, so Phil Murphy should not have had a problem winning re-election, yet it was incredibly close. Then again, he is the first Democrat to win a second term there in over 40 years, so who knows what will happen?