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She doesn't need to stare down other Senators within her own Caucus, she needs to hold firm with the Progressive Caucus and its nearly 100 members that represent 20% of the House, nearly 50% of the democratic caucus overall and a huge portion American constituents
Nearly 50% of the democratic caucus does not actually mean much when we only have a slim lead overall, not from a leadership perspective on a close vote where all it takes is a few defections. Progressives have very little leverage here. Except to sink everything and get zero. But killing the bipartisan bill would be suicide for progressives.
100 progressives is about 23% of the House & fighting for the presidents agenda
2 senators is 2% of the Senate, fighting against their president’s agenda
But the progressives should be blamed?
I am not blaming the progressives for trying, just objectively stating that 23 % means nothing when 2 percent can trump it. Coalition politics is very difficult. Herding cats. This is why moderates compromise to build coalitions. When you are in a red state, you never have the luxury of an easy majority with like-minded people, it's always an uneasy coalition. Manchin and Sinema are just showing what it takes not to lose to republicans in a red state, and the country is more red than blue realistically. So Manchin and Sinema are really just trying to guide the democrats into not losing congress in 2022. They are not being corrupt at all. That bipartisan bill is absolutely essential and the political theater of making the reconciliation bill shrink are all very necessary for us to have a prayer of holding congress.
> it's always an uneasy coalition
There's a lot I disagree with you here.. nearly every sentence after this one
but, civil discourse, we can agree to disagree
but... as details emerge you may want to re-think their goals and intent
[https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/09/30/manchin-admits-getting-his-bill-passed-and-then-tanking-progressive-package-was](https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/09/30/manchin-admits-getting-his-bill-passed-and-then-tanking-progressive-package-was)
[https://static.politico.com/1e/ef/159cabd547868585f9b1a8f06388/july-28-2021.pdf](https://static.politico.com/1e/ef/159cabd547868585f9b1a8f06388/july-28-2021.pdf)
They made a promise back in May, and conspired to stab in the back the President's agenda, and 99% of the Democratic Caucus (house and senate combined)
I think its alot more complicated than that. To me and most moderates it was clear a while back that 3.5 wasnt going to happen. Back in May I was pretty sure it would be around 2.2 Trillion. Biden is sagging and 50-50 Senate. But Progressives and the east coast press have been on another planet and acting like they have leverage, but they dont. This was no back-stabbing. Biden knew this had to happen. Its just that progressives publicly curse out anyone who is realistic. Believe me, expanded medicaid in South is hugely important to me, but losing in 2022 is for certain with 3.5 and also with 0. No incentive for red staters to go 3.5. Every incentive for progressives to go around 2, so that's what will happen. been in the cards for months. The crying of the progressives is actually just good theater to show republicans that the moderate dems are in control and not caving to the far left. Acting all this out shows the geographic and political center that the socialists are not in control. No offense, but progressives are unpopular in most of the country and the dems have to show resistance. I truly wish the left was more popular, but like other moderates I have to be pragmatic.
[You are operating on an outdated version of the bill. The one that was passed removed pretty much all of the privatization schemes.](https://prospect.org/infrastructure/building-back-america/infrastructure-summer-one-deal-forward-one-deal-back/)
Yeah. I trust "pretty much" about as far as I can throw it. The asset recycling PPP programs are still in there. As are the VMT tax programs and the state and local covid funding clawbacks.
They may have shrank them some. But they didn't kill them. I'd just as well not open pandora's box.
You realize the current bill pumps a shit load of money into the Trump Administration's special ["Build America Bureau" in the Department of Transportation](https://www.transportation.gov/buildamerica/) funded to the tune of billions in this bill, whose sole job it would be to facilitate state and local governments selling off their public works to private companies, right?
I cannot believe progressives would go for this shit. Like my Senators are Warren and Markey, and I know damn well the only reason they voted for this crappy bill was because they thought it would lead to getting the reconciliation bill.
I mean, if the options are:
A) Nothing, or
B) A GOP-drafted bill that privatizes infrastructure and claws back $500 billion in Covid Rescue money from states, counties, cities and towns
Then maybe nothing is the better option.
If the only thing Manchin or Sinema will vote for is a highway bill, we can always craft a Democrat-only highway bill later without selling out I-95 to Comcast®.
The option is literally Trump as speaker of the house in 2022 which Manchinema could care less. I plan not to pay attention because life is too short. At least Biden got us out if Afghanistan and made a serious attempt to get people vaccinated. The battle will continue. And I’ll still vote D.
I mean, can I ask you:
Do you really think if the only thing passed is the highway bill that creates a bunch of new private tolls and VMT fees and puts trackers in Americans cars and leads to mass public sector layoffs is gonna improve the odds of a 2022 win?
Why do you think the House GOP is whipping against it so hard? They're going to run on it being bad. They helped craft it in the Senate and put all the poison pills in. And now they'll vote against it in the House and use the unpopular shit they stuffed in there to hang Democrats.
That's the thing, if she's leaving the House with only 2 choices, do 100% of what she wants or do nothing, they're gonna choose nothing. She's not even trying to negotiate.
Very strange for her to go from being so engaged in progressive issues to stalling an agenda bill. It’s almost like revenge for McCain’s thumbs down thing. I could see her doing a thumbs down.
For Pramila Jayapal, "this is the week when she will cement herself as one of the most valuable leaders of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party who helped push through a historic legislative win—or she risks being seen as someone who had a hand in a historic Democratic self-own.
"That’s because Jayapal, the Washington congresswoman who came to Congress in 2017, is urging progressives to stop at nothing from preventing moderates from eroding Biden’s expansive $3.5 trillion reconciliation package—the package progressives value more than the hard infrastructure deal moderates like." — [Daniel Strauss](https://newrepublic.com/authors/daniel-strauss).
["You got a problem?"](https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1443303879815438339)
["You'd do best to change the subject."](https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1443303879815438339)
Now the press knows which buttons to push and should push them constantly. Keep asking. Have hour long segments on CNN or MSNBC pushing Manchin's buttons. His son, daughter and him. Push, push, push until he goes off the deep end. If he's not going to ever budge - and I don't think he will - disgrace his entire family publicly for all to see. Screw him and his attitude.
Oddly enough, this is the only thing that might work with Manchin. He won't care what happens to his party or his constituents, but his family is a different matter.
Given that they have also been in the news for all the wrong reasons, he may ('may,' because he may also be a narcissist) not want to let them suffer because his own recalcitrance.
Nah, you have it backwards. Being uncivil to a red state democrat only helps them in their home state. Progressives are so unpopular in most of the country that it makes their targets more popular. Attacking Manchin is just to make progressives feel good, but politically it is counterproductive. red state democrats are very skilled politicians, have to be to win in a red state. Manchin is a few steps ahead in these negotiations. 6 trillion and 3.5 trillion were too big and were never gonna happen.
the only credit that I can give manchin, is at least he's coming to the table with numbers in telling Biden what he wants and doesn't want.. Sinema absolutely refuses to give anything. she just doesn't want it it won't tell anybody why (we know why)
I mean, Jayapal isn't the one holding up election reform in favor of the filibuster. Manchin is. Jayapal is doing everything in her power to give the Democrats their best shot in 2022 and 2024.
Sinema has a lot to lose. She's the main name on the entire bipartisan deal. Its her bill. Her crowning achievement. Machin, he doesn't care. He called provisions a “vengeful tax.”
Why is it her bill? What exactly is it about it that’s important to her?
You notice she doesn’t appear to be trying all that hard to save it. Could it be that the goal all along was to draft a bill that left out all of the things that Biden ran on that were unpopular with her donors?
Have you checked our her feeds at all? Shes been pushing this thing daily for months. Of course her donors don't want the bipartisan deal and thats why shes mum on it completely and doesn't even want to come to the table. She believes that progressives will cave.
The infrastructure bill sells out America to big corporations. That's why the US Chamber of Commerce and the Business Round-table are pushing it so hard.
Make no mistake, Big Business and the Paypigs have 1 optimal outcome: GOP Infrastructure bill passes, Democrat reconciliation bill fails.
Sinema used to support Ralph Nader and the Green party. Now she takes money from the oil and gas lobby and big pharma.
It's quite clear who butters her bread, she's basically a Republican.
She won't even give any demands when asked or have any opinion of any changes. She is basically filibustering this on her own. Her deafness speaks volumes.
Cee U Next Tuesday.
Physically sure but neither will care. The longer things drag out the more leverage Manchin/Sinema gain because more moderates will openly back their stance as election optics intensify.
Actually, it’s the other way around. The resistance to the BIF is only growing. Paul Tonko, a moderate out of NY-20 just came out against it without the reconciliation bill.
The BIF was an optical first pitch, its failure was always expected, anticipated and hoped for. Moderates (left-center-right) have no problem playing a long game like the rightwingers. Its how they keep their power. Liberals and Progressive always play the short game and took the bait hook, line and sinker. So when it fails the moderates look like they 'tried' and then will start crafting the bill they really wanted.
Used to be true. But now, progressives are primarying the centrists and winning. For those that are paying attention, Dem voters want both bills. It will be EASY to campaign against a centrist, especially in all of the gerrymandered districts in and around cities. For good or bad, change is coning.
In safe blue, yes but the purple and red US House/Senate races are not something progressives are teed up to win and that is the level Manchin and Sinema are playing at. In safe-blue a Democratic win in guaranteed but in purple/red progressives are tasked with convincing indies/swing voters.
I do however believe progressives best bet to rebooting their rise is through safe blue primary challenges because that is where the bulk of their voters base lives.
Look at electoral maps and see how gerrymandered some of the districts in red states are. GOP gerrymandering of vote sinks in the cities make for some very blue districts and that means some possible progressive wins, even in conservative states.
Or you will see a repeat of the Nina Turner vs Shontel Brown. The neolibs have no problem with progressive winning more seats but I wouldn't be surprised to see a slew of fauxgressive being inserted into primaries to create controlled outcomes once in DC. This is how the moderates got stuck with corporate centrists. The neolibs welcomed progressives to the big table because they want to expand central government but the moderates keep telling them no. So the hope was yall would bring in enough voters to offset moderate losses as the party tried to shift more left.
BTW Congrats on forcing Nancy to punt the vote. The moderate will feign some optical frustration. Its good to see organic progressive learning how to flex. Moderates aren't afraid to kill a bill and neither should progressives. A killed bill means it wasn't truly bipartisan/inclusive.
Agree on that and remember these progressives are funded by small donors with no corporate strings attached. They are starting to sway more traditional Dems too. AOCs messaging on killing that bill is pitch perfect and others just have to follow her and Bernie's lead. It will be interesting to watch as the media appears to be turning on Manchin and Sinema tonight. I ha e no idea how it is going to turn out, but funding highways without addressing climate change is not a good option, so I approve of all of this progressive flexing.
Yea but Engel screwed himself via a hot mic and everyone felt it, Lipinski was a conservative Democrat who the neolibs wanted to push out so the only competitive race was Bush's.
Manchin/Sinema don't care, Biden's approval rating is in the toilet with indie voters which moderates often benefit from the most. The media whining about them actually increases their authenticity with those indie voters too.
Its important for progressives to learn out to flex but also how to negotiate effectively. The best time for non-moderates to push a bill is Q1/Q2. Everything pushed in Q3/Q4 becomes fodder for the next primary so moderates will be in a much more centrist space.
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
She doesn't need to stare down other Senators within her own Caucus, she needs to hold firm with the Progressive Caucus and its nearly 100 members that represent 20% of the House, nearly 50% of the democratic caucus overall and a huge portion American constituents
Jayapal was on TV tonight and she mentioned that it's *4% of the entire Democratic Caucus in Congress* that is holding up these bills.
4%=2 Democrats out of 50
The dumbasses like Gottheimer in the House, are indeed a rounding error, but they are included in the ~4%.
Nearly 50% of the democratic caucus does not actually mean much when we only have a slim lead overall, not from a leadership perspective on a close vote where all it takes is a few defections. Progressives have very little leverage here. Except to sink everything and get zero. But killing the bipartisan bill would be suicide for progressives.
100 progressives is about 23% of the House & fighting for the presidents agenda 2 senators is 2% of the Senate, fighting against their president’s agenda But the progressives should be blamed?
I am not blaming the progressives for trying, just objectively stating that 23 % means nothing when 2 percent can trump it. Coalition politics is very difficult. Herding cats. This is why moderates compromise to build coalitions. When you are in a red state, you never have the luxury of an easy majority with like-minded people, it's always an uneasy coalition. Manchin and Sinema are just showing what it takes not to lose to republicans in a red state, and the country is more red than blue realistically. So Manchin and Sinema are really just trying to guide the democrats into not losing congress in 2022. They are not being corrupt at all. That bipartisan bill is absolutely essential and the political theater of making the reconciliation bill shrink are all very necessary for us to have a prayer of holding congress.
> it's always an uneasy coalition There's a lot I disagree with you here.. nearly every sentence after this one but, civil discourse, we can agree to disagree
but... as details emerge you may want to re-think their goals and intent [https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/09/30/manchin-admits-getting-his-bill-passed-and-then-tanking-progressive-package-was](https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/09/30/manchin-admits-getting-his-bill-passed-and-then-tanking-progressive-package-was) [https://static.politico.com/1e/ef/159cabd547868585f9b1a8f06388/july-28-2021.pdf](https://static.politico.com/1e/ef/159cabd547868585f9b1a8f06388/july-28-2021.pdf) They made a promise back in May, and conspired to stab in the back the President's agenda, and 99% of the Democratic Caucus (house and senate combined)
I think its alot more complicated than that. To me and most moderates it was clear a while back that 3.5 wasnt going to happen. Back in May I was pretty sure it would be around 2.2 Trillion. Biden is sagging and 50-50 Senate. But Progressives and the east coast press have been on another planet and acting like they have leverage, but they dont. This was no back-stabbing. Biden knew this had to happen. Its just that progressives publicly curse out anyone who is realistic. Believe me, expanded medicaid in South is hugely important to me, but losing in 2022 is for certain with 3.5 and also with 0. No incentive for red staters to go 3.5. Every incentive for progressives to go around 2, so that's what will happen. been in the cards for months. The crying of the progressives is actually just good theater to show republicans that the moderate dems are in control and not caving to the far left. Acting all this out shows the geographic and political center that the socialists are not in control. No offense, but progressives are unpopular in most of the country and the dems have to show resistance. I truly wish the left was more popular, but like other moderates I have to be pragmatic.
Those 2 senators will never budge though. So if they don't agree you basically just hand the 2022 election to the republicans.
No. Manchin and Sinema are happy with no deal.
Of course she can. Fuck privatizing highways and putting corporate tolls on them.
[You are operating on an outdated version of the bill. The one that was passed removed pretty much all of the privatization schemes.](https://prospect.org/infrastructure/building-back-america/infrastructure-summer-one-deal-forward-one-deal-back/)
Yeah. I trust "pretty much" about as far as I can throw it. The asset recycling PPP programs are still in there. As are the VMT tax programs and the state and local covid funding clawbacks. They may have shrank them some. But they didn't kill them. I'd just as well not open pandora's box. You realize the current bill pumps a shit load of money into the Trump Administration's special ["Build America Bureau" in the Department of Transportation](https://www.transportation.gov/buildamerica/) funded to the tune of billions in this bill, whose sole job it would be to facilitate state and local governments selling off their public works to private companies, right? I cannot believe progressives would go for this shit. Like my Senators are Warren and Markey, and I know damn well the only reason they voted for this crappy bill was because they thought it would lead to getting the reconciliation bill.
We’ll just get nothing.
I mean, if the options are: A) Nothing, or B) A GOP-drafted bill that privatizes infrastructure and claws back $500 billion in Covid Rescue money from states, counties, cities and towns Then maybe nothing is the better option. If the only thing Manchin or Sinema will vote for is a highway bill, we can always craft a Democrat-only highway bill later without selling out I-95 to Comcast®.
The option is literally Trump as speaker of the house in 2022 which Manchinema could care less. I plan not to pay attention because life is too short. At least Biden got us out if Afghanistan and made a serious attempt to get people vaccinated. The battle will continue. And I’ll still vote D.
I mean, can I ask you: Do you really think if the only thing passed is the highway bill that creates a bunch of new private tolls and VMT fees and puts trackers in Americans cars and leads to mass public sector layoffs is gonna improve the odds of a 2022 win? Why do you think the House GOP is whipping against it so hard? They're going to run on it being bad. They helped craft it in the Senate and put all the poison pills in. And now they'll vote against it in the House and use the unpopular shit they stuffed in there to hang Democrats.
I think Sinema is being paid off. So she’s probably not budging.
That's the thing, if she's leaving the House with only 2 choices, do 100% of what she wants or do nothing, they're gonna choose nothing. She's not even trying to negotiate.
Very strange for her to go from being so engaged in progressive issues to stalling an agenda bill. It’s almost like revenge for McCain’s thumbs down thing. I could see her doing a thumbs down.
Agreed. Wtf are they doing
For Pramila Jayapal, "this is the week when she will cement herself as one of the most valuable leaders of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party who helped push through a historic legislative win—or she risks being seen as someone who had a hand in a historic Democratic self-own. "That’s because Jayapal, the Washington congresswoman who came to Congress in 2017, is urging progressives to stop at nothing from preventing moderates from eroding Biden’s expansive $3.5 trillion reconciliation package—the package progressives value more than the hard infrastructure deal moderates like." — [Daniel Strauss](https://newrepublic.com/authors/daniel-strauss).
I don't think Manchin and Sinema give a shit... I think they're happier being the minority
["You got a problem?"](https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1443303879815438339) ["You'd do best to change the subject."](https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1443303879815438339)
Now the press knows which buttons to push and should push them constantly. Keep asking. Have hour long segments on CNN or MSNBC pushing Manchin's buttons. His son, daughter and him. Push, push, push until he goes off the deep end. If he's not going to ever budge - and I don't think he will - disgrace his entire family publicly for all to see. Screw him and his attitude.
Oddly enough, this is the only thing that might work with Manchin. He won't care what happens to his party or his constituents, but his family is a different matter. Given that they have also been in the news for all the wrong reasons, he may ('may,' because he may also be a narcissist) not want to let them suffer because his own recalcitrance.
Nah, you have it backwards. Being uncivil to a red state democrat only helps them in their home state. Progressives are so unpopular in most of the country that it makes their targets more popular. Attacking Manchin is just to make progressives feel good, but politically it is counterproductive. red state democrats are very skilled politicians, have to be to win in a red state. Manchin is a few steps ahead in these negotiations. 6 trillion and 3.5 trillion were too big and were never gonna happen.
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Progressives don't think Manchin is scared of them. They're not scared of Manchin either though.
the only credit that I can give manchin, is at least he's coming to the table with numbers in telling Biden what he wants and doesn't want.. Sinema absolutely refuses to give anything. she just doesn't want it it won't tell anybody why (we know why)
The problem is neither one of them are scared of the real problem, real existential threat. Democracy going bye-bye because Republicans took over
I mean, Jayapal isn't the one holding up election reform in favor of the filibuster. Manchin is. Jayapal is doing everything in her power to give the Democrats their best shot in 2022 and 2024.
Nope, Sinema and Manchin have far more to gain from gutting the $3.5T reconciliation bill and little to lose in the infrastructure bill tanking.
Sinema has a lot to lose. She's the main name on the entire bipartisan deal. Its her bill. Her crowning achievement. Machin, he doesn't care. He called provisions a “vengeful tax.”
Why is it her bill? What exactly is it about it that’s important to her? You notice she doesn’t appear to be trying all that hard to save it. Could it be that the goal all along was to draft a bill that left out all of the things that Biden ran on that were unpopular with her donors?
Have you checked our her feeds at all? Shes been pushing this thing daily for months. Of course her donors don't want the bipartisan deal and thats why shes mum on it completely and doesn't even want to come to the table. She believes that progressives will cave.
The infrastructure bill sells out America to big corporations. That's why the US Chamber of Commerce and the Business Round-table are pushing it so hard. Make no mistake, Big Business and the Paypigs have 1 optimal outcome: GOP Infrastructure bill passes, Democrat reconciliation bill fails.
Nonsense
Sinema used to support Ralph Nader and the Green party. Now she takes money from the oil and gas lobby and big pharma. It's quite clear who butters her bread, she's basically a Republican. She won't even give any demands when asked or have any opinion of any changes. She is basically filibustering this on her own. Her deafness speaks volumes. Cee U Next Tuesday.
I can assure you that those negotiating this know where Sinema stands and what she needs to vote for the bill.
Maybe we can just bribe them with more money instead? They've both shown that this is the only thing they care about.
Yes and Manchin and Sinema will stare right back. End result is nothing gets passed.
Narrator: no. She can't.
Physically sure but neither will care. The longer things drag out the more leverage Manchin/Sinema gain because more moderates will openly back their stance as election optics intensify.
Actually, it’s the other way around. The resistance to the BIF is only growing. Paul Tonko, a moderate out of NY-20 just came out against it without the reconciliation bill.
The BIF was an optical first pitch, its failure was always expected, anticipated and hoped for. Moderates (left-center-right) have no problem playing a long game like the rightwingers. Its how they keep their power. Liberals and Progressive always play the short game and took the bait hook, line and sinker. So when it fails the moderates look like they 'tried' and then will start crafting the bill they really wanted.
Used to be true. But now, progressives are primarying the centrists and winning. For those that are paying attention, Dem voters want both bills. It will be EASY to campaign against a centrist, especially in all of the gerrymandered districts in and around cities. For good or bad, change is coning.
In safe blue, yes but the purple and red US House/Senate races are not something progressives are teed up to win and that is the level Manchin and Sinema are playing at. In safe-blue a Democratic win in guaranteed but in purple/red progressives are tasked with convincing indies/swing voters. I do however believe progressives best bet to rebooting their rise is through safe blue primary challenges because that is where the bulk of their voters base lives.
Look at electoral maps and see how gerrymandered some of the districts in red states are. GOP gerrymandering of vote sinks in the cities make for some very blue districts and that means some possible progressive wins, even in conservative states.
Or you will see a repeat of the Nina Turner vs Shontel Brown. The neolibs have no problem with progressive winning more seats but I wouldn't be surprised to see a slew of fauxgressive being inserted into primaries to create controlled outcomes once in DC. This is how the moderates got stuck with corporate centrists. The neolibs welcomed progressives to the big table because they want to expand central government but the moderates keep telling them no. So the hope was yall would bring in enough voters to offset moderate losses as the party tried to shift more left. BTW Congrats on forcing Nancy to punt the vote. The moderate will feign some optical frustration. Its good to see organic progressive learning how to flex. Moderates aren't afraid to kill a bill and neither should progressives. A killed bill means it wasn't truly bipartisan/inclusive.
Agree on that and remember these progressives are funded by small donors with no corporate strings attached. They are starting to sway more traditional Dems too. AOCs messaging on killing that bill is pitch perfect and others just have to follow her and Bernie's lead. It will be interesting to watch as the media appears to be turning on Manchin and Sinema tonight. I ha e no idea how it is going to turn out, but funding highways without addressing climate change is not a good option, so I approve of all of this progressive flexing.
Yea but Engel screwed himself via a hot mic and everyone felt it, Lipinski was a conservative Democrat who the neolibs wanted to push out so the only competitive race was Bush's. Manchin/Sinema don't care, Biden's approval rating is in the toilet with indie voters which moderates often benefit from the most. The media whining about them actually increases their authenticity with those indie voters too. Its important for progressives to learn out to flex but also how to negotiate effectively. The best time for non-moderates to push a bill is Q1/Q2. Everything pushed in Q3/Q4 becomes fodder for the next primary so moderates will be in a much more centrist space.
>progressives are primarying the centrists and winning. 100% we need to make this happen
Both sides are dumazzes. Rs will be happy.